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all right everybody Welcome to the all
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in podcast
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lots to talk about but right off the bat
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congratulations to David Friedberg who
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is
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the chairperson of the all in Summit
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2023 on the big announcement we're going
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to be having the all in Summit September
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10th 12th at Royce Hall at UCLA in Los
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Angeles California tickets are now on
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sale and selling out quick
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Friedberg maybe just give people a
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little overview of why you selected the
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location and what you hope to accomplish
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in terms of the programming just broad
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strokes and then we'll get right into
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the show I think the general headline is
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today and tomorrow where are we where we
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headed I think exploring the state of
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the world and interesting things that
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were uniquely or that we're all kind of
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excited about in the future and we want
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to have great conversations with candid
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people
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that can give us kind of you know
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they're very honest on the ground points
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of view on everything from technology
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and markets macro
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science society and culture so we're
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going to talk across all those different
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topic areas
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and similar to what we did last year the
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four of us on stage having conversations
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with these folks
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so pretty excited I think La is a great
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location there's obviously an
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availability for people to stay there's
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great venues for us to do the evening
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events and it's certainly super
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accessible
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for folks from all over the world and we
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decided this year to have three tiers of
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tickets we'll have the VIP tickets
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we'll have scholarships for people who
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fill out a form so we can you know have
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really great diversity and
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representation at the event and up and
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comers maybe who couldn't afford the VIP
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ticket but in between you decided to
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have a standard ticket as well that's
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just 1500 bucks and
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there'll be a VIP lounge this year for
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the VIP tickets and an early access to
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the theater and a couple of special
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dinner parties what is my wine budget so
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that I can take care of the VIPs
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properly yeah talk about that one later
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you guys what is my wine budget let me
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treat the VIPs like the VIPs that they
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are what would you need per night per
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dinner per person depends on how many
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people per person or just say per person
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per night is it like 200 a person a
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hundred dollars per person per night
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because a person drinks a half a bottle
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of wine two or three glasses yeah like
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you know three to
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500. maybe a thousand what is the
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Truffle budget for the conference
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no it's too early for truffles we can
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only have it watch season now it's by
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September
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yuck it's between white and black
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truffle season it's a dead zone you
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don't want to be in that you got to
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either wait till the winter or you got
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to enjoy the early summer we have to
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have a conference in early November at
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that point we can focus the entire VIP
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budget if we're recording to me would be
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spent on white truffles and white birds
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[Music]
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out
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[Music]
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queen of King
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all right everybody let's get started
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Jamaica is with us as well the dictator
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himself and David sacks the rain man
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yeah Google had their i o event they
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announced Palm 2 Google's language model
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is going to power 25 products including
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Bard which is got coding capabilities
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now I guess to go up against
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github's co-pilot pump2 will have
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improved multilinguality
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wait what across a hundred languages
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multi what it's going to support a
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hundred languages
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and it's going to be better at
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mathematics and reasoning they also
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announced duet AI which is basically
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Google Suite of generative AI tools
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or dock sheets drive all that kind of
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stuff kind of like a copy of Microsoft's
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copilot tools that sax has talked about
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a whole bunch the guide on the side if
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you will they teased a future where AI
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can summarize stocks which box AI Aaron
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Levy is doing
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they also
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previewed proactive prompts in the
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sidebar of Google Docs
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and I talked about that a whole bunch on
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The Swinging startups they're going to
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also now add images and replies have you
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guys used Bart in the last 24 hours I
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used it last week
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not in the last 24 hours I think you
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guys should use it we should talk about
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it it's
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really impressive
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it's better than chat GPT at this point
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from my experience on talk going through
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a number of things because it's actually
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connected live to the Internet it's
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connected live to search it can pull
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down real-time data for you
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it can do real internet searches for you
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and just give you the results it's
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extremely powerful I feel like it's the
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product that Google
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has been scared to do which is the
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product that can truly disrupt search
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and they're doing it so I how do I try
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it do I just go to google.com no access
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needed no cost nothing oh my God this is
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great and seriously use it and it does
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real-time search and it's 180 languages
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it converts it generates images for you
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it can generate charts results it's
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really powerful guys Google has thrown
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together I think a lot of features and
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you can look Google's market caps up 150
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billion dollars in the last two days
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okay this is pretty interesting and so
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sax a lot of comparing some results
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right yeah a lot of what we've been
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talking about with respect to plugins
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and the tooling built into Auto GPT many
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of the most interesting kind of
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applications that folks have kind of
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demonstrated or
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utilized are are really kind of built
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into this Bard product okay I love Bard
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can I just give you guys what I just
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tried okay can we guess yes yeah guess
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guess was it something about
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freeburg's anus Uranus no it wasn't a
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Uranus joke okay then tell us my first
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question was why is David Friedberg such
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a sellout but the answer confused him
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with an actor so let's forget that my
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second question was is Jason calcanus a
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virtue signaler and the answer is
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fantastic
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Jason calcanus is a venture capitalist
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and entrepreneur who has been accused of
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virtue signaling virtue signaling is the
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act of publicly expressing opinions or
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sentiments intended to demonstrate one's
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good character or the moral correctness
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of one's position on a particular issue
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there are a number of reasons why people
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might accuse Jason calcanus of virtue
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signal okay for example he is going to
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make public statements about his support
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for social justice causes but he has
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also been criticized for his lack of
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concrete action on these issues
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additionally he has been accused of
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using his platform to promote himself
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and his businesses rather than to
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genuinely advocate for social change
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that's ultimately
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whether or not Jason got Candace is a
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virtue signaler is a matter of opinion
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there's no clear consensus on this issue
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and there is evidence to support both
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sides of the argument however it is
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important to note that virtue signaling
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can be a harmful practice as it can lead
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to people becoming desensitized to real
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social problems and make it more
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difficult to address them effectively
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this is some woke where do you see
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what I just did here's mine
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a horrible human
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is a complex individual with both
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positive and negative qualities he is a
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successful venture capitalist and
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entrepreneur but he has also been
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criticized for his outspoken views and
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his past actions
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some of polyhoppatitis Polish qualities
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include his intelligence his ambition
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his drive to succeed blah blah blah blah
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blah he's also been criticized for his
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arrogance
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he had his willingness to exploit people
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for his own game this is perfect it's
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the same party it's balanced it's true
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it is giving you like the good and the
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bad oh my God that's hilarious this is a
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very fair answer
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I love it
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I asked it where is he this is gonna
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really show you the power of this where
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is the all in Summit 2023 being held and
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how much are tickets so like two
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questions that are deep on the website
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and it says there are two all
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assignments yeah that's an advertising
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Association that's incredible and then
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it says the all in Summit 2203 will be
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held September 10th at 11 23 at Royce
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Hall tickets are 1500 for general
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admission 7 500 for VIP
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that's insane that's insane wait so
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Freeburg what are the key differences
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between Barden and chat GPT just because
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you've used it on the modeling side
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they're claiming a much larger more
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robust model it's linked to the to the
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Internet so it's linked to live search
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which you can't do with chat gbt which
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is based on a static training data set
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so Bard can actually engage with Dynamic
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content and a dynamic content generated
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across the web and then it's integrated
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with a number of Google services that
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basically can take
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certain live feeds of data like flights
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and stock prices and so on it's free you
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don't need to be charged for
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for over usage you don't need to sign up
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and get access it's it's just available
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to anyone I mean I think this is the
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game changer everyone is hoping for free
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I just I just asked
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did Stan druckenmiller buy Nvidia
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recently
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so it wasn't able to find the transcript
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of this thing but it did find the 13f
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and it says yes according to his 13.
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fourth quarter of 22 Stan purchasing 582
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915 shares of Nvidia yeah isn't that
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incredible I just said what was Google's
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restructuring expense incurred in q1
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2023 and it says according to Google's
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2023 q1 earnings report the company
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incurred restructuring expense of 1.6
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billion including the decision to lay
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off 12 000 employees they were part of a
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broader restructuring I mean that was a
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it was it basically parsed through the
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press release Parts through the q1 data
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it's really pretty impressive huh I mean
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what do you guys check this out
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yeah David sacks what does David sacks
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think about Hunter Biden everybody on
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the oil and pod knows
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but let's see what Bard knows he's not
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publicly commented on Hunter Biden
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however he has been critical of the
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Biden family business dealings in
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Ukraine in the 2019 interview sack said
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that he was deeply troubled by the
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Biden's vomiting Ukraine 2019 but he
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believed it was a conflict of interest
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for Hunter Biden to serve on the board
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of Purisima that's pretty interesting I
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don't know that's clearly inaccurate I
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mean I wasn't talking about it yeah in
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2019 think about that that's oh yes
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we're doing this pod
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yeah so the question is where is he
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getting these quotes and then why
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doesn't it give citations well also wait
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sax has been critical the Trump
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administration's use of Honor blinds
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business dealings as a political weapon
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yeah that's not true you've never
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criticized the Trump Administration
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those quotes are wrong those quotes I
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just said to it can you access and think
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about this this data set and this is
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where Google has unique advantages I
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said can you access the YouTube
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transcript data and it says yes bar to
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integrates YouTube transcript data I
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said do you have access to transcript
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data from the all in podcast Channel it
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says yes I do have access to the
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transcript data from the all in podcast
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Channel I said can you access this data
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answer some questions and now what did
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Saks say about
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Hunter Biden
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in that show
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hmm and so I would guess so think about
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this answer
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so far I'm finding this to be very
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inaccurate
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yeah so David Sachs appeared he said he
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believes Hunter Biden is a deeply
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troubled individual who's made a lot of
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bad decisions he also said that he
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believes Hunter Biden's business
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dealings in Ukraine were highly
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unethical and that he believes it's
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impossible that you'll this is
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transcript data from the pod
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however Sachs also said that he does not
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believe that Hunter Biden's business
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dealings are a quote Smoking Gun that
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proves that Joe Biden engaged in any
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wrongdoing he said that he believes that
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the evidence against Joe Biden or quote
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circumstantial is quote circumstantial
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and that he does not believe that there
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is enough evidence to impeach him sacks
00:12:01
his comments about Hunter Biden were met
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with mixed reactions some people agree
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and on and on and on I think it's very
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inaccurate to be honest
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some of my stuff mixed in it's got some
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of your stuff mixed in but also it's
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like it's summarizing in a way that
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neither of us actually said it yeah and
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they're missing the key points about
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what I did say I I asked a pretty
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complicated question here and I think it
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did a pretty decent job I said I would
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like to fly Le premiere on Air France
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from the west coast to Europe where
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should I depart
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hmm
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and it got it perfectly LAX SFO and
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Seattle Tacoma
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oh yeah I just asked it to get me the
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fastest route to Portofino
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and it gave me the exact flight I should
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take from SFO how much the ticket is and
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then the train I should take from the
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shortest meaning the shortest time yeah
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because I don't want to do a layover in
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Germany it's like fly to Milan take the
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train and it gave me the full schedule
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which by the way Google flights can't do
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because you go to Google Flights and all
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it does is give you the flight data
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it can integrate a lot of different data
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sets to give you these answers did you
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say fastest route or fastest flight what
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did you fastest route yeah so I don't
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want to spend the least amount of time
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traveling is what my objective was this
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is why I was saying I think you guys
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should play with this tool a bit
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it is I think Head and Shoulders above
00:13:15
Chachi BT the models supposedly better
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obviously other people will come out
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with with kind of you know measures of
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that and estimates of whether that's
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true the extensibility the integration
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with live data and the integration with
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Google's very unique data set is what's
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so powerful that they have access to
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flight data that they have integrated
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YouTube transcript data it's just super
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powerful super impressive ah damn yeah
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I'm using this in real time
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and I do find the interface to be
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snappier than chat GPT and it like you
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said it doesn't need the browsing plugin
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in order to scrape more recent data from
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the internet that it wasn't trained on
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but I'm not finding the answers to be
00:13:54
more accurate and I'm not finding them
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to be more detailed it's not the same
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reason to use this over chat GPT I
00:14:00
prefer chat GPT so far
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I'm just telling you okay
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well the reason of stuff is important
00:14:06
well I mean clearly chat GPT is gonna
00:14:09
have to make the browsing browsing
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plug-in
00:14:11
much snappier and like much more part of
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the core functionality rather than
00:14:15
something that's like an add-on yeah it
00:14:17
can't be an add-on it's got to be able
00:14:18
to incorporate the most recent
00:14:20
information I did ask some questions
00:14:21
about the Ukraine war and then it gave
00:14:24
me like a highly compressed View and I
00:14:25
said please provide more detail
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and then it's actually did a pretty good
00:14:30
job expanding it and it did it very
00:14:31
quickly
00:14:32
well if you look at the view drafts
00:14:34
thing that's always been one of its
00:14:35
strengths is that it will format it
00:14:36
three different ways for you by default
00:14:38
if you go to the top right so you can
00:14:39
just sort of cycle through them but that
00:14:41
that's an existing feature I mean I
00:14:43
definitely want to keep playing with
00:14:43
this play with it it's one of
00:14:47
the obviously important releases that I
00:14:50
thought they were going to catch up real
00:14:51
quick and this seems like we got a race
00:14:54
on our hands now but I think the point
00:14:55
you're making Freeburg is a good one
00:14:57
which is
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when these big companies just get their
00:15:01
act together
00:15:02
it's very hard to discern whether
00:15:05
something is
00:15:06
80 percent is good or 120 percent better
00:15:10
there's this fuzzy gray area where a lot
00:15:12
of people can find utility in a lot of
00:15:14
different products and then the one with
00:15:16
the better distribution wins and so if
00:15:18
they take Bard and they have the
00:15:19
confidence now to just integrate it into
00:15:20
Gmail
00:15:21
or integrated into these other points
00:15:23
where they already have hundreds of
00:15:24
millions of users that's like a really
00:15:27
tough distribution barrier to overcome
00:15:29
that's the next step that I think if
00:15:30
Google really wants to win here they
00:15:33
have to force distribution of these
00:15:34
tools in line to where people are and if
00:15:37
they do that you're not going to know
00:15:39
the difference between 80 and 100
00:15:40
somewhat as sophisticated as sax may be
00:15:42
able to but the average person will just
00:15:45
be like this is good enough they've got
00:15:46
distribution I mean like with all
00:15:48
products the uh the kind of key
00:15:50
Advantage is distribution that's the
00:15:52
platform Advantage can I show you an
00:15:53
answer I think it's like super
00:15:55
hallucinating on so I asked it what is
00:15:57
David sacks written about SAS and then
00:15:59
it says I'm a venture capitalist
00:16:00
entrepreneur is written extensively
00:16:01
about SAS he's the founder of Yammer
00:16:03
okay that's true but then it says he's
00:16:05
also the co-founder of wework not true
00:16:07
didn't know that then it says sex
00:16:09
congrats says sax has written a number
00:16:11
of articles about SAS including and then
00:16:13
all five of those articles were not
00:16:16
written by me
00:16:18
hmm it's basically like hallucinating
00:16:20
like really strongly wow so there's
00:16:24
significant hallucination here oh you
00:16:26
know what Bard is at the after party for
00:16:28
Google I O right now and it's had too
00:16:30
much to drink so it's just straight up
00:16:32
drunk this is why Google didn't want to
00:16:36
release this right Freeburg like they
00:16:38
don't want the Google brand associated
00:16:39
with these hallucinations whereas that's
00:16:41
right nobody cares about open ABS brand
00:16:43
this was a big part of
00:16:45
The innovator's Dilemma that Google
00:16:48
faced which was number one it could be
00:16:50
disruptive to the Core Business number
00:16:51
two
00:16:52
it exposes them to regulatory scrutiny
00:16:56
and number three is if they make
00:16:59
mistakes they're going to get more
00:17:00
scrutinized and some you know
00:17:02
rinky-dinky startup where everyone's so
00:17:03
forgiving
00:17:05
but it's great to see look I mean as a
00:17:07
shareholder it's great to see them take
00:17:08
this risk it's great to see them put
00:17:10
this out there they've now released
00:17:11
robust coding capabilities they've
00:17:13
integrated scientific research papers
00:17:15
obviously they're going to continue to
00:17:17
improve model performance improve
00:17:18
integration with these data feeds
00:17:21
and they have a very large head count I
00:17:23
think north of 10 000 people working
00:17:26
um 10 000 smart people so if you can
00:17:28
organize those people and they've got
00:17:29
this significantly Advanced
00:17:31
infrastructure they have a real shot at
00:17:34
being a platform player here the
00:17:36
question later is going to be how much
00:17:38
is this going to disrupt course search
00:17:39
Revenue you know what categories of
00:17:42
search Revenue are going to get
00:17:43
disrupted
00:17:44
and you know are they going to make that
00:17:46
up in other ways and I think time will
00:17:48
tell there but
00:17:50
I think this is the progress that
00:17:51
shareholders and investors were looking
00:17:53
to see with respect to the product
00:17:55
competition in Ai and certainly some
00:17:58
shareholders still want to see
00:18:01
continued improvements on the cost
00:18:02
structure of the business but that's a
00:18:04
separate topic but this was exactly I
00:18:05
think it really hit the bullseye on what
00:18:07
people were looking for I don't see how
00:18:09
it's a bullseye look at this so I just I
00:18:10
just asked it can you give me a complete
00:18:12
list of all the articles on Sasa saxator
00:18:13
in the last three years so now at least
00:18:16
it's over the target those
00:18:18
five articles it mentions are correct
00:18:21
does chat GPT do that well no because of
00:18:23
the browsing plug-in right but I'm just
00:18:25
saying like they got a lot of work to do
00:18:27
here on quality yeah they all do but it
00:18:30
is Snappy and I finally got to these
00:18:32
five articles being correct AI
00:18:33
regulation we talked about it five weeks
00:18:35
ago on the show I think
00:18:37
well there's been some movement there
00:18:40
vice president Harris met with CEOs of
00:18:42
alphabet Microsoft open AI so that's
00:18:44
Sundar Satya and Sam
00:18:47
discuss implementing Ai safeguards and
00:18:50
then on Tuesday
00:18:52
Sam Altman was interviewed by Patrick
00:18:55
Carlson uh the CEO of stripe and he
00:18:58
endorsed the idea of
00:19:00
iaea for AI That's the international
00:19:02
atomic energy agency
00:19:05
so is that
00:19:07
um hyperbolic delusions a Grandeur or
00:19:10
right on target well the interesting
00:19:12
thing about the iaea is that
00:19:16
what I learned recently from the CEO of
00:19:18
Planet Labs will Marshall is that
00:19:21
the predecessor organization to the iaea
00:19:23
is really this organization called
00:19:25
pugwash and what that was Einstein and
00:19:28
Bertrand Russell in the 50s post
00:19:30
Hiroshima and Nagasaki bringing together
00:19:34
academics to basically create
00:19:37
a way to think about nuclear disarmament
00:19:40
going forward just because they all saw
00:19:42
the damage
00:19:43
and there was a large framework that set
00:19:46
up the current
00:19:48
denuclearization treaties
00:19:50
and then the iaea was set up after that
00:19:54
and so I think that there's a thread
00:19:56
here which is basically what he's saying
00:19:58
is there's something around nuclear
00:20:00
disarmament that is very similar
00:20:02
to AI both in terms of its potential but
00:20:05
obviously in terms of its risks and so
00:20:07
there's like a whole monitoring
00:20:09
framework
00:20:10
there's a know your customer kind of
00:20:12
framework these are not unfettered
00:20:14
things that can just live openly in the
00:20:16
wild
00:20:17
so I think it's interesting to
00:20:19
acknowledge that Sam who's deep in the
00:20:22
bowels of one of the most important
00:20:23
companies
00:20:25
sees both its potential but it's danger
00:20:27
enough to say that this is how we should
00:20:28
think about it like nuclear weapons I
00:20:31
think is a very important thing to
00:20:33
acknowledge and the White House pledged
00:20:35
to release draft guidelines for AI
00:20:37
safeguards
00:20:38
that the National Science Foundation
00:20:40
plans to spend a 140 million on
00:20:43
at AI focused research centers FTC chair
00:20:46
Lena Khan wrote a guest essay in the New
00:20:48
York Times calling for AI regulation due
00:20:50
to Largo risks including Monopoly
00:20:52
consolidation fraud extortion and bias
00:20:55
any thoughts there sacks about adding
00:20:59
regulation to the mix right now are we
00:21:01
jumping the gun here and gonna smother
00:21:04
this thing before it even gets correct
00:21:06
answers serious risk and the White House
00:21:09
also announced that Kamala Harris would
00:21:10
be the AI Czar for this issue which I
00:21:13
don't think inspires anyone with
00:21:14
confidence that they're gonna you know
00:21:16
get this right
00:21:17
look my concern here is I think we
00:21:19
should have conversations about the
00:21:21
risks of AI we should be thinking about
00:21:23
that I think people in the industry need
00:21:25
to be thinking about what guardrails can
00:21:26
be put on it I think elon's raised I
00:21:29
think long-term concerns about whether
00:21:31
this could lead to AGI you basically
00:21:33
create a super intelligence that you
00:21:34
can't control I think people in the
00:21:36
industry haven't really figured out how
00:21:38
to address that that problem is called
00:21:39
alignment and everyone's trying to
00:21:41
figure out how do you even make
00:21:42
alignment work is that theoretically
00:21:44
possible so there are real invalid
00:21:47
concerns Jake how you've raised the
00:21:48
issue of deep fakes I think provenance
00:21:50
of data is going to be a real issue
00:21:51
people committing fraud or
00:21:54
you know other kinds of criminal acts
00:21:55
using it so there are real concerns but
00:21:57
the problem is that we have no idea how
00:21:59
to regulate this yet and yeah and the
00:22:02
fact that Kamala Harris as the AIS are
00:22:05
now again just points the fact that
00:22:07
nobody has a good idea of what's
00:22:08
supposed to be or who the expert's
00:22:10
supposed to be
00:22:12
and this idea of creating an atomic
00:22:14
energy Commission
00:22:16
look I I can see why Sam and other
00:22:20
industry leaders might want that because
00:22:22
they're gonna quickly develop
00:22:25
relationships the the biggest AI
00:22:27
companies
00:22:28
which now includes open AI which has the
00:22:30
backing in Microsoft and Google and the
00:22:33
biggest of the big tech companies they
00:22:35
have all the lobbyists in Washington
00:22:36
they have all the political connections
00:22:38
they're the ones who are huge donors and
00:22:42
they have political relationships and
00:22:44
they're going to help construct the
00:22:45
regulations and it's going to turn into
00:22:47
another example of Industry capture just
00:22:49
like North K Jr told us about on the
00:22:51
show last week when he talked about how
00:22:53
the big weapons companies influence our
00:22:56
foreign policy the way that the big
00:22:59
Pharma companies influence the FDA and
00:23:01
so on we're going to end up in a
00:23:02
situation which the big tech companies
00:23:04
have in order to influence over this new
00:23:06
regulatory agency and since it's not
00:23:09
clear what the regulatory agency is even
00:23:11
supposed to be doing yet they're going
00:23:12
to end up promulgating a bunch of
00:23:14
regulations that create a barrier to
00:23:15
entry for the little guy they're going
00:23:17
to create a mode with regulation yeah
00:23:18
for the big guys and they'll slow down
00:23:20
the whole process of innovation in the
00:23:22
space which some people might like but I
00:23:24
think is really the best hope that
00:23:26
America has to get out of it horrible
00:23:28
fiscal situation all this debt we need a
00:23:31
massive productivity boost to get out of
00:23:33
the massive debt bubble that we're in
00:23:35
so what I'd hate to see is that yeah we
00:23:38
we basically kill this this thing in the
00:23:41
Cradle interesting yes we are in a deep
00:23:44
pit here and Stanley druckenmiller gave
00:23:47
a speech at USC
00:23:49
at the 37th annual meeting of the USC
00:23:52
Marshall Center for investment studies
00:23:54
and he expressed concern about the
00:23:55
financial crisis that occur could occur
00:23:57
in the 2025 to 2035 period due to the
00:24:01
Baby Boomers turning 65 and the impact
00:24:03
on entitlements he predicted that in 25
00:24:06
years spending on seniors will grow to
00:24:08
60 percent of all taxes
00:24:11
here's a look at the chart
00:24:14
you can see today there as the the
00:24:17
vertical line about five percent of our
00:24:19
GDP goes to Social Security uh today and
00:24:22
about another 5.5 goes to Medicare
00:24:25
Medicaid
00:24:27
and it's predicting here that those
00:24:29
combined will go from what looks like 12
00:24:32
today up to 24 of GDP your reaction
00:24:37
Freeburg I mean my reaction is it is
00:24:40
another very important voice stating the
00:24:42
obvious like the arithmetic just doesn't
00:24:44
work when we had RFK on last week I
00:24:46
prodded him on
00:24:48
his stance and point of view
00:24:50
on the federal deficit the fiscal
00:24:54
deficit this government runs and the
00:24:56
entitlement programs that are only going
00:24:58
to swell and the debt burden which has
00:25:01
an interest payment obligation on it
00:25:02
that the interest payments are swelling
00:25:05
and when you do the arithmetic on all
00:25:07
this it's going to balloon the cost to
00:25:11
service the debt and without some degree
00:25:13
of cutting across the board spending and
00:25:15
entitlement programs discretionary
00:25:17
spending and entitlement programs you
00:25:19
can't make the interest payments which
00:25:21
all you know inevitably leads to some
00:25:22
form of default so
00:25:25
that's just the math and the way this
00:25:26
all works out and I think what he's done
00:25:28
is put a pen to paper and shown that you
00:25:31
know call it roughly 2025 to 2035 you
00:25:34
start to run
00:25:35
into that fiscal scenario where you know
00:25:38
you can no longer generate enough income
00:25:41
from the US economy to fund both the
00:25:44
interest payment obligations on the
00:25:45
federal debt as well as these
00:25:47
entitlement programs and something's got
00:25:49
to give either you're going to have to
00:25:50
default on the debt or you're going to
00:25:52
have to cut the entitlement programs and
00:25:54
the point he's making is that the longer
00:25:55
you wait to cut the entitlement programs
00:25:57
the worse it's going to get because
00:25:59
you're accruing so much debt in the
00:26:01
interim and as we know that becomes very
00:26:04
politically unpopular and what's so
00:26:06
scary to me and I've kind of shared this
00:26:08
and you know obviously chamoth has a
00:26:09
different point of view but it feels to
00:26:11
me like this is that don't look up movie
00:26:13
moment where we have this like you know
00:26:16
looming disaster we don't have any fuel
00:26:18
in the car and all that everyone's
00:26:21
talking about is where are we going to
00:26:22
drive the car and every political
00:26:24
conversation every candidate gets on
00:26:26
stage gets on a podcast gets on a TV
00:26:28
show and they talk about stuff that is
00:26:31
simply not feasible and the direction
00:26:34
setting with respect to social policy
00:26:37
Wars geopolitics you know how are we
00:26:40
going to take care of our middle class
00:26:41
none of that stuff is possible to
00:26:44
actually execute against without
00:26:46
recognizing and acknowledging that we
00:26:48
don't have gas in the car and we have to
00:26:50
figure out how to gas up the car
00:26:52
and so it's great to see drucken Miller
00:26:54
being vocal putting very simple clear
00:26:56
slides together it's like what I've
00:26:58
mentioned in the past I would love to
00:26:59
see a clinton-esque bill clinton-esque
00:27:01
slide deck where he would come up with a
00:27:03
poster and show everyone here's the
00:27:05
economy folks and I think drucken Miller
00:27:07
did a great job and I encourage everyone
00:27:09
to go watch that um there's an audio
00:27:11
transcript of the talk as well as the
00:27:14
slides are publicly available on the
00:27:15
internet we'll put the links in the the
00:27:17
show notes here today I just think it's
00:27:19
it's whether or not you agree with the
00:27:21
Outlook I think it's worth everyone
00:27:22
watching and realizing how serious of an
00:27:24
issue this is and why this has to become
00:27:28
the number one topic of conversation
00:27:29
going into this next presidential
00:27:31
election cycle he's also disclosed he's
00:27:34
short the dollar long gold Euro oil and
00:27:36
AUD which I guess is the Australian
00:27:38
dollar and he's also long Nvidia and
00:27:40
Microsoft believes in videos got a
00:27:42
monopoly on the chip Market I got a
00:27:44
question for tremath and then to sax so
00:27:47
Jamal
00:27:48
what's your just reaction to this do you
00:27:51
think he's doctor dooming it and we can
00:27:53
have all this debt and then the question
00:27:56
then becomes is there any way out of
00:27:58
this uh we had a trump Town Hall I hate
00:28:01
to bring it up and go back into you know
00:28:03
the sort of trump commentary and all
00:28:05
this but he's he's the lead candidate
00:28:07
sax and he said
00:28:10
he thinks we can get out of debt we just
00:28:12
got to drill a bunch of oil drill belt
00:28:13
baby drill and we'll get out of this uh
00:28:15
problem we'll be able to rebalance the
00:28:17
budget so trim off and then sex I want
00:28:18
to be clear I don't think it's great
00:28:20
that we have these enormous debts and
00:28:23
entitlement obligations
00:28:26
but I also don't think that there's some
00:28:28
magical number where the economy breaks
00:28:30
and the reason is because we're
00:28:33
Central to not just our economy but
00:28:35
everybody else's economy We Are The
00:28:37
Reserve currency of the world that's not
00:28:40
changing anytime soon it's not even
00:28:41
close
00:28:43
and we are for better or worse and I
00:28:46
think Sox and I don't like it but we are
00:28:48
the world's policemen we are a bunch of
00:28:50
things we are the world center of
00:28:52
innovation we are the world's Center of
00:28:54
these great leaps forward in humanity
00:28:56
when we talk about all of these
00:28:58
different things these aren't coming
00:28:59
from random countries
00:29:01
they're coming from the United States we
00:29:03
can debate which company but we're never
00:29:05
debating the country
00:29:06
so I think that there's a legacy of
00:29:09
value creation and Innovation that we've
00:29:13
always been at the Forefront of at least
00:29:15
since America was founded so 1776 to now
00:29:21
I think the reality is that debt to GDP
00:29:25
will continue to increase
00:29:28
I don't think a single politician can
00:29:31
practically get elected
00:29:33
by offering to cut entitlement spending
00:29:35
to people that have spent their entire
00:29:36
lives paying into a system
00:29:39
so as a practical matter this thing will
00:29:40
go up
00:29:42
and I don't think the economy will stop
00:29:45
I think that economics
00:29:47
are a relative problem where you have to
00:29:49
weigh countries against each other
00:29:52
and what that means is the economic
00:29:54
vibrancy the productivity the intellect
00:29:56
all of those things where we have to
00:29:58
compete with El Salvador we have to
00:30:01
compete with Nigeria we have to compete
00:30:03
with India we have to compete
00:30:06
and in that context there is very little
00:30:09
historical
00:30:11
artifact that says that there's a
00:30:13
Breaking Point
00:30:16
so I just think that if You observe the
00:30:17
moment
00:30:18
it's not that what freebrook is saying
00:30:21
is bad
00:30:22
I'm not exactly sure that it's
00:30:23
particularly actionable and I think the
00:30:27
disproportionate amount of action is
00:30:29
actually the opposite which is to
00:30:31
reinflate the money supply
00:30:34
to reinflate assets
00:30:36
to create artificial prosperity and
00:30:38
smear it to many many many people
00:30:41
and I think that the you have to think
00:30:44
about how do you want to activate your
00:30:46
view
00:30:47
I can believe whatever I want but at the
00:30:49
end of the day
00:30:50
I don't want to act in a way that's
00:30:51
against my economic best interest quite
00:30:53
honestly
00:30:54
so I believe that winning is measured in
00:30:56
dollars and cents on these things and
00:30:58
from uh from that perspective I don't
00:31:01
particularly like it I think I'm
00:31:02
emotionally more aligned to Freeburg but
00:31:05
the Practical reality is I'm on the
00:31:07
opposite side which says the governments
00:31:09
will keep spending
00:31:10
inflation will be here assets will keep
00:31:13
inflating the M2 money supply will keep
00:31:15
going up and on General
00:31:17
um along the United States and short
00:31:19
every other country
00:31:20
to Mark doesn't that ultimately lead to
00:31:22
just inflation it initially starts at
00:31:25
the inflation of assets and asset prices
00:31:27
but It ultimately leads to the inflation
00:31:29
of goods and services which can
00:31:33
the economy because then you know the
00:31:35
middle class can't afford things and you
00:31:38
have economic slowdown I mean that's the
00:31:39
historical record of having these kind
00:31:41
of inflationary moments
00:31:44
yeah I mean inflation comes and goes but
00:31:46
the position of the American
00:31:48
US dollar
00:31:50
hasn't changed again you have to
00:31:51
remember like a lot of these foreign
00:31:53
governments 187 or whatever the number
00:31:55
is countries outside the United States
00:31:57
rely on the US dollar
00:31:59
they don't want to own their own
00:32:01
currency
00:32:02
right and so yeah you're right dollars
00:32:04
do
00:32:06
get inflated but that increased
00:32:08
purchasing power also actually drives
00:32:10
the balance of power back to the United
00:32:12
States because all of these other folks
00:32:14
all of a sudden find the ability to
00:32:15
import a little bit cheaper their
00:32:17
economies get slightly better but the US
00:32:20
dollar actually still does well so
00:32:22
there's a complex set of interactions
00:32:24
that are all relative so I think it's
00:32:26
very hard to point to the U.S middle
00:32:28
class and say oh this is why the U.S
00:32:30
breaks I just don't see very many good
00:32:33
examples in a modern globalist era and
00:32:36
there are examples and I think Ray dalio
00:32:39
has pointed these out when you look all
00:32:41
the way in the back but to use the UK
00:32:44
right in the 15 and 1600s of the East
00:32:47
India Trading Company when we did not
00:32:48
have a global economy or a global
00:32:50
Reserve currency
00:32:52
I don't think it's very useful there's
00:32:54
things you can learn you know taxation I
00:32:56
think we can learn about why taxation
00:32:58
does kill Innovation you said that
00:33:00
before I agree with that
00:33:02
but I don't think there's much value in
00:33:05
saying because it happened in these
00:33:06
moments it's going to happen exactly the
00:33:08
same way here and I think what people
00:33:10
don't understand is we are in a unitary
00:33:11
singular mono economy that is anchored
00:33:15
by the US dollar Saxony thoughts sex do
00:33:17
you agree I tend to be on the freeberg
00:33:20
drunken Miller side of this thing drunk
00:33:22
Miller had a great quote in this
00:33:24
interview he just gave I don't know
00:33:25
freeware did you mention this last week
00:33:26
that he said that
00:33:29
that he compared the the debt ceiling
00:33:31
and fiscal spending to worrying about
00:33:32
whether a 30-foot wave will damage the
00:33:34
pier when you know there's a 200 foot
00:33:36
tsunami just 10 miles out yeah I saw
00:33:39
that question so what he's saying is
00:33:40
like our short-term situation is bad the
00:33:42
long-term situation which isn't even
00:33:44
that long term like 10 years out is even
00:33:47
worse
00:33:48
and I think there's a growing feeling
00:33:50
that our political system is just not up
00:33:52
to the challenge of dealing with these
00:33:55
problems
00:33:56
it just seems fundamentally unserious we
00:33:58
never discuss it the media doesn't
00:34:00
really present us with accurate
00:34:02
information and it has an agenda do you
00:34:05
guys want to make a bet sax you want to
00:34:07
make a friendly wager with me sure
00:34:08
what's that okay I will bet you that
00:34:11
debt to GDP gets to 200 before it gets
00:34:14
to 50.
00:34:16
and I'll bet you however amount of money
00:34:19
you want
00:34:20
and we can we can do it for our own
00:34:23
personal gain or for charity that may
00:34:25
well be true but but the question is how
00:34:27
how bad is 200 that's GP I don't think
00:34:29
that's a really bad scenario I mean I
00:34:31
really don't think it matters I think
00:34:32
the point is if that happens yeah yeah
00:34:35
we'll have a lot of money you'll just
00:34:36
have to profit from it if you think it's
00:34:38
happening your job is to profit from it
00:34:40
I'll make the same bet with you free
00:34:42
Brook I think it gets to 200 before it
00:34:43
gets to 50. or 250 or 300 you can pick
00:34:46
your number I think it will too I'm I'm
00:34:48
just like let's do the math on that real
00:34:50
quick so the the size of GDP is what
00:34:52
about 25 trillion and and we're at about
00:34:54
32 trillion in debt if we're to have 200
00:34:56
debt to GDP right now would be at 50
00:34:58
trillion of debt now let's assume that's
00:35:01
impute an interest rate at which you
00:35:02
would need to to finance that four
00:35:04
percent so I think four percent you have
00:35:06
to calculate the duration
00:35:08
I understand but this is
00:35:11
Baseline so let's say four percent so
00:35:13
four percent on 50 trillion is 2
00:35:16
trillion a year yep
00:35:18
which is isn't that like half the budget
00:35:22
yeah more and that's why that's my point
00:35:24
that's why you have to see taxes go up
00:35:26
to over 70 because it's the only way you
00:35:28
can you got to tax everything in order
00:35:30
to fund that so US government has
00:35:31
collected two trillion in fiscal year
00:35:33
2023. now we I guess we haven't done a
00:35:36
complete year but
00:35:38
let's do 2022. it basically collected
00:35:41
3.7 trillion right you're using more
00:35:44
than half of the government's income
00:35:46
based on the current tax rates to fund
00:35:49
the interest payments on your debt
00:35:50
that's not even to pay for social
00:35:52
services that's not even to pay for the
00:35:54
defense that's not even to pay for
00:35:55
government services that's just more
00:35:57
than half of the income I guess maybe
00:35:59
we're just speaking past each other I
00:36:01
guess you guys are expressing anxiety
00:36:02
and concern and I'm just expressing
00:36:04
here's how one would make money because
00:36:06
it's pretty obvious what's going to
00:36:08
happen we're going to 200. we're not
00:36:09
going to 50. so I just kind of compart
00:36:12
how do you make money
00:36:14
I think there's a lot of ways that you
00:36:16
could make money
00:36:17
I'm not going to share those on the Pod
00:36:19
anymore but
00:36:21
what's the trade there Stan Rucker
00:36:23
Miller said it's the opposite of Stan's
00:36:25
trades actually so oh okay that's good
00:36:27
that would be an easy way to actually
00:36:30
would you go long the dollar in short
00:36:32
gold no because those are like
00:36:34
Antiquated ways of making money where
00:36:36
you have to have these convoluted
00:36:38
derivatives agreements with these Banks
00:36:39
and I've done these before where you're
00:36:41
levered up to billions of dollars of
00:36:43
risk it proves nothing and I don't sleep
00:36:45
well at night I think that there are
00:36:47
simpler strategies that you can
00:36:49
implement but I think Stan is basically
00:36:53
betting that the U.S will break
00:36:56
and that we will be forced in some way
00:36:58
to bring debt to GDP closer to 50 than
00:37:00
to 150 or 200. and I would just bet the
00:37:05
opposite and it's not because I want it
00:37:07
to happen or that he's not
00:37:08
intellectually or morally right also
00:37:11
inflation down again we've kind of
00:37:14
gotten used to this but this I thought
00:37:16
this is a particularly interesting chart
00:37:18
if you look at Food goods and energy
00:37:20
all going in the right direction
00:37:22
Services still
00:37:25
very expensive any thoughts on the fed
00:37:28
and inflation as we
00:37:31
wrap up on sort of
00:37:34
where we're at here is another 25 basis
00:37:36
points or inflation is very sticky
00:37:40
yeah right yeah I mean with CPI is down
00:37:42
to 4.9 percent but but core actually was
00:37:45
up goes up it's it was up 5.3 something
00:37:48
like that yeah so yeah the FED is it
00:37:53
raised another 25 basis points what are
00:37:55
we up to like 5.25 percent
00:37:57
I was ready to stop you know
00:38:00
two hikes ago because I thought that the
00:38:03
economy was breaking and the banking
00:38:04
system was breaking they're up to now to
00:38:06
five and a quarter you've got core CPI
00:38:08
still sticky yes CPI is coming down but
00:38:11
it looks like you know inflation's still
00:38:13
a problem this is not a great
00:38:15
set up for
00:38:16
economic recovery and if you believe
00:38:19
here's the problem with accepting the
00:38:21
idea
00:38:22
that inflation is going to be
00:38:24
persistently high is if inflation
00:38:26
remains persistently High then the FED
00:38:29
won't be able to lower interest rates so
00:38:31
they'll need to keep them elevated they
00:38:33
might even need to keep raising them
00:38:35
and if that happens they'll continue to
00:38:37
be incredible stress on the banking
00:38:39
system and more banks are going to break
00:38:41
and then eventually that will create
00:38:43
the conditions for the financial crisis
00:38:45
I think the thing you guys have to be
00:38:48
open to is the fact that we've never
00:38:50
really tested the ability for the US to
00:38:52
borrow durationally Beyond 30 years
00:38:55
and again we talked about what an error
00:38:57
it was in judgment for the treasury not
00:38:59
to issue 100-year bonds
00:39:02
but I think if there's any country in
00:39:03
the world that can issue 100 Year bonds
00:39:05
it's the United States of America
00:39:06
and I do think that
00:39:09
they'll be able to get durational assets
00:39:11
that are that far out on the yield curve
00:39:13
so I again am less concerned about the
00:39:16
debt wall here because I think you'll be
00:39:18
able to push maturities out you'll be
00:39:20
able to refi a bunch of short-term
00:39:22
obligations into the future and if you
00:39:25
look at where the yield curve is 10
00:39:27
years at three and a half 340 something
00:39:29
so the thought is that inflation goes
00:39:31
down if you put it out to 100 years I
00:39:33
would be very surprised if 100 Year
00:39:35
rates if they price the bond weren't
00:39:38
some were sub one percent so I do think
00:39:41
it becomes effectively free money for
00:39:42
the United States and I think it's just
00:39:44
a practical thing they need to explore
00:39:46
by the way corporates have explored
00:39:48
these 50-year bonds and greater so I
00:39:51
think it's just like it's a matter of
00:39:53
mathematics as you guys have just
00:39:54
Illustrated here that the US has to push
00:39:57
out past 30 years so we'll have 50-year
00:39:59
U.S bonds we'll have 100 year U.S bonds
00:40:02
again I'm not here to claim whether it's
00:40:04
right or wrong but I think the the
00:40:06
simple way to acknowledge that is just
00:40:08
that we are going to to reinflate the
00:40:10
money supply over the long term because
00:40:13
it's the only sustainable way
00:40:15
that politicians can get elected and
00:40:17
re-elected and I think the best thing to
00:40:20
do there is to own risk assets let's
00:40:22
move on to the presidential election
00:40:25
real quick I'm curious gentlemen last
00:40:29
week we had RFK on
00:40:31
did you get any feedback uh the the show
00:40:33
obviously did really well a lot of
00:40:35
people watched it I got a tremendous
00:40:36
amount of feedback people thought he was
00:40:38
a fascinating interesting character some
00:40:40
people thought he was a conspiracy
00:40:41
theorist they pointed out a bunch of
00:40:43
different moments during the interview
00:40:45
but what was the General feedback you
00:40:46
got
00:40:47
my biggest thing was
00:40:49
I think he surprised a lot of people to
00:40:51
the upside a lot of people emailed me
00:40:53
saying they thought one specific thing
00:40:55
with him and we tried to address it
00:40:57
which is
00:40:58
he's painted as this kind of like
00:41:00
conspiracy theorist or anti-vaxx person
00:41:02
by the mainstream media and
00:41:05
overwhelmingly so much of the feedback
00:41:07
was wow this guy is so totally different
00:41:09
because you gave him a long
00:41:11
long format in order for him to really
00:41:13
talk I thought he was really engaging
00:41:15
and
00:41:16
very interesting and very smart
00:41:19
sax did you have feedback on it
00:41:21
yeah I mean I think he is very authentic
00:41:24
I think he's very principled I think
00:41:26
that he's a rebel in a way I mean to
00:41:29
grow up in the Kennedy family and to be
00:41:33
part of all of those Elite circles
00:41:35
whether it's in Hollywood or Harvard or
00:41:39
where do they go for the summer Martha's
00:41:41
Vineyard Martha's Vineyard or Hannah
00:41:43
bunkport yeah whatever I mean you think
00:41:45
about like all of the elite circles that
00:41:47
he grew up in right and for him to
00:41:50
deviate
00:41:51
from democratic party Orthodoxy and
00:41:53
Elite thinking and all these really
00:41:55
significant ways shows that he is again
00:41:59
very principled very authentic and I
00:42:01
think a rebel in a really good way and
00:42:04
he's telling people a lot of things that
00:42:06
you just don't hear on the Democratic
00:42:08
side and through the mainstream media so
00:42:10
I think it's all positive yeah I got
00:42:12
positive feedback on a freeberg the one
00:42:14
thing people said was we they some
00:42:18
people said not a lot but they expected
00:42:20
us to push back maybe on him harder or
00:42:22
something or be harder I thought we did
00:42:24
an interesting job of letting him talk
00:42:26
and
00:42:27
really taking these topics to 10 or 20
00:42:30
minutes each the one people were
00:42:33
particularly I don't know concerned is
00:42:36
the right word or puzzled by was that we
00:42:38
didn't push back as much on the vaccine
00:42:40
stuff we just let them talk about it a
00:42:42
week later
00:42:43
what do you think about his vaccine
00:42:45
position
00:42:47
and would you have pushback more or do
00:42:50
you do you regret not pushing back more
00:42:52
fredberg as our Science Guy
00:42:54
he made a lot of generalized statements
00:42:57
or statements that I think take a
00:43:00
concern about one thing and then make
00:43:01
them
00:43:02
evidence for a whole thing being off for
00:43:06
example there is a vaccine that is an
00:43:08
efficacious there was a vaccine that had
00:43:11
mercury in it therefore all vaccines are
00:43:13
bad oh we over vaccinate now many
00:43:16
vaccines today that kids take going into
00:43:19
schools have saved countless lives and
00:43:23
they've had a really critical role in
00:43:25
reducing a lot of child-borne illness
00:43:28
it's been you know just an incredible
00:43:30
advance for Humanity for medicine
00:43:33
Etc I think he had a number of points he
00:43:36
made about the covid vaccine and I know
00:43:38
he's made these points for many years he
00:43:40
kind of extrapolates that you know it's
00:43:42
evidence that vaccines are generally
00:43:44
over prescribed and overused and Pharma
00:43:46
companies are just out to make money and
00:43:48
the government is aligned with Pharma
00:43:50
companies to just try and make money I
00:43:52
don't think that that is necessarily
00:43:53
true I think that there are certainly
00:43:55
incentives
00:43:57
that can drive bad behavior but I do not
00:44:00
think that looking at the evidence both
00:44:02
Contra evidence and evidence of safety
00:44:05
and benefit
00:44:06
that childhood vaccines should be kind
00:44:09
of changed in terms of how we're doing
00:44:10
things today there may be some things to
00:44:12
change but generally I think that
00:44:14
they're very beneficial so I don't love
00:44:16
kind of how he frames these things
00:44:19
and I think that it instead of having
00:44:20
kind of a more nuanced conversation
00:44:22
about this particular thing and this
00:44:23
particular example he blankets things
00:44:25
and people get scared and they're like
00:44:26
oh my gosh you're right we should stop
00:44:27
doing vaccines for kids that's very
00:44:29
dangerous that would be very bad for
00:44:31
society be very bad for our kids
00:44:33
and I think that we need to kind of
00:44:35
address that in more detail over time
00:44:36
it's one of these hard things where you
00:44:38
have to have kind of a nuanced
00:44:39
conversation to give people all the
00:44:40
necessary depth and context to feel
00:44:42
better informed to make a better
00:44:44
decision because you know there's always
00:44:45
this kind of gripping fear that if
00:44:48
something's off and I'm getting you know
00:44:49
poison or I'm getting bad medicine or
00:44:51
you know people are trying to make money
00:44:53
off me people immediately react
00:44:54
negatively and angrily and they want to
00:44:57
kind of resolve to a blanket position I
00:44:59
don't think that that's healthy so I'd
00:45:01
love to have a deeper debate on that but
00:45:03
the reason we didn't go into it is
00:45:04
because we didn't we had limited time
00:45:06
with him and we wanted to take our time
00:45:08
kind of giving him a chance to talk
00:45:09
about the overview of topics
00:45:11
and getting his point of view across the
00:45:13
the set of topics that we generally
00:45:15
thought were going to be relevant in
00:45:16
this election cycle so that's and that
00:45:18
was with two hours we still didn't have
00:45:20
enough time you could talk for two hours
00:45:21
about vaccine could I address the
00:45:23
conspiracy theorist Point yeah sure so
00:45:26
first of all that that label conspiracy
00:45:28
theorist doesn't pack the punch that it
00:45:30
used to as you'll recall anyone who
00:45:32
thought the virus might have come from
00:45:34
the Wuhan lab was once called a
00:45:35
conspiracy theorist
00:45:37
if you believed that fauci and the NIH
00:45:41
were funding gain of function research
00:45:42
that was dubbed a conspiracy theory if
00:45:44
you believe that cloth Mass didn't do
00:45:46
anything that was a conspiracy theory if
00:45:49
you believe that Hunter Biden was
00:45:50
getting paid off by Foreign governments
00:45:51
that was a conspiracy theory so this
00:45:54
accusation just doesn't really pack the
00:45:57
same punch anymore not having a
00:45:59
relationship with the Russians in this
00:46:00
family meeting with the Russians
00:46:01
multiple times yeah that's still a
00:46:03
conspiracy theory
00:46:05
um
00:46:06
but in any events my point is it doesn't
00:46:08
pack the same punch in fact in some
00:46:10
cases it's starting to become a badge of
00:46:11
honor so that's one thing the second
00:46:13
thing is when you listen to him make his
00:46:15
arguments he's not just alleging certain
00:46:18
things he's laying out his evidence
00:46:20
right he's he's connecting dots he's
00:46:23
explaining the causation and you can
00:46:25
disagree with it but he is thinking in
00:46:28
terms of like causation and it made me
00:46:31
think about something that Peter Thiel
00:46:33
once said about you know Founders being
00:46:35
Asperger's where he flipped it on his
00:46:37
head and said what is it about our
00:46:38
society that talks Founders out of all
00:46:41
of their contrarian ideas unless they
00:46:43
are a little bit Asperger's ah
00:46:45
interesting what is it about our
00:46:47
political system and our media that
00:46:50
talks people out of seeing causation
00:46:52
unless they are a little bit of a
00:46:54
conspiracy theorist and what I mean by
00:46:56
that is
00:46:57
look at San Francisco okay all you have
00:46:59
to do is walk down the street and you
00:47:02
can see that things have gone totally
00:47:04
off the rails and whatever we've done
00:47:06
politically is not working and yet the
00:47:09
voters in San Francisco just like
00:47:10
completely block that out they don't see
00:47:12
any causation between the way they vote
00:47:15
at the city level or at the state level
00:47:17
and the policies that are manifest on
00:47:20
our streets they just don't see any
00:47:21
causation there and you can just play
00:47:24
that movie over and over again our
00:47:26
Elites don't see
00:47:28
any causation between the way they ran
00:47:30
the country and the election of Donald
00:47:33
Trump the fact that we hauled out our
00:47:34
Manufacturing in the Rust Belt by
00:47:37
throwing open our markets to China
00:47:39
exporting our jobs to China the way that
00:47:41
we squander all this money in the
00:47:43
forever Wars of the Middle East regards
00:47:45
to what your views are on those policies
00:47:47
it's pretty obvious to me that they
00:47:49
helped cause the rise of Donald Trump
00:47:51
and yet you just can't get the media to
00:47:53
see any causation between the policies
00:47:56
they endorse and the inevitable reaction
00:47:58
to them and so the way I see this is
00:48:01
that our political analysis certainly
00:48:04
our mainstream media they're just
00:48:05
completely bereft of seeing any
00:48:07
causation between policies and the
00:48:11
problems in our society and so Along
00:48:13
Comes RFK Jr and he's willing to
00:48:16
actually connect dots now you may not
00:48:18
agree with all the dotsies connecting
00:48:20
but maybe it takes it the same way maybe
00:48:22
it takes a little bit of an Asperger's
00:48:24
founder to stick with their contrarian
00:48:26
idea so they don't get talked out of it
00:48:28
maybe it takes a guy like Robert F
00:48:30
Kennedy Jr not to get talked out of
00:48:32
these things that he believes
00:48:35
some of which I think are just obviously
00:48:37
true at the one of the selling points he
00:48:39
made was just Hey listen farmer spends
00:48:41
an awful lot on Advertising the media is
00:48:44
dependent on that advertising they don't
00:48:46
seem to criticize it all that much maybe
00:48:48
that's something we should look into now
00:48:50
I don't think that like Pfizer is
00:48:52
writing the script for Anderson Cooper
00:48:54
but you can be sure that if Pfizer
00:48:55
didn't like something Anderson Cooper
00:48:57
said there's somebody they could call at
00:48:59
CNN and say something to and have a
00:49:01
conversation about you know setting the
00:49:03
record straight whatever however you
00:49:05
would frame it speaking of CNN right and
00:49:07
oh wait don't leave that point before I
00:49:09
thought it was a really interesting part
00:49:11
of the conversation when he mentioned
00:49:12
that he had been friends way back with
00:49:14
Roger Ailes and Roger L specifically
00:49:17
told him yes that they could not post
00:49:19
certain or televise certain content if
00:49:22
it was too critical of Pharma companies
00:49:24
because they were the number one
00:49:24
Advertiser yeah
00:49:26
and should farmer companies even be
00:49:28
advertising so then all of a sudden
00:49:29
let's say it was a conspiracy theory or
00:49:32
he is like way out there in terms of his
00:49:34
belief
00:49:35
but the fact is it does bring up the
00:49:37
point should we actually be letting
00:49:39
Pharma companies advertise on television
00:49:41
or on news programs maybe they shouldn't
00:49:43
be allowed to be on news before it's not
00:49:45
like it's not like the consumer who
00:49:47
watches the ads and go out and buy the
00:49:48
drug as you prescribed by a doctor they
00:49:50
can ask their doctor about it yeah all
00:49:52
right well speaking of CNN
00:49:54
there was an absolute train wreck of a
00:49:57
presidential Town Hall
00:49:58
with a moderator named Caitlin Collins I
00:50:02
don't recognize her name I don't know if
00:50:04
she has a show on CNN but I saw the
00:50:06
clips from it I couldn't find the full
00:50:08
debate but my Lord was this that's
00:50:12
unbelievable it's unbelievable it was
00:50:14
unbelievable he got a standing ovation
00:50:16
he absolutely owned her on every
00:50:19
question all of her questions were about
00:50:22
you know January 6th
00:50:24
you know all of them are valid but none
00:50:27
of them were about running the country
00:50:28
essentially
00:50:31
and uh he was hilarious at least to this
00:50:35
audience
00:50:36
and he
00:50:38
CNN staffers are really upset that they
00:50:42
did this that they gave him that they
00:50:44
platformed him
00:50:45
which shows you exactly where they stand
00:50:47
they're upset I guess they thought they
00:50:49
could own him and they didn't did you
00:50:52
guys see the part where he was talking
00:50:53
about the trial and he's like and she
00:50:56
has a cat named vagina
00:50:58
I mean it was surreal and I just thought
00:51:01
to myself is this going to be for the
00:51:04
next year and a half we're going to have
00:51:05
these town halls and then I thought oh
00:51:07
he's going to get elected is it true
00:51:08
that EJ and Carol has a cat named vagina
00:51:10
I have no idea but I mean it was that
00:51:12
was a pretty vicious section and then I
00:51:14
got the sense that CNN's management
00:51:18
wants this this is like a ratings
00:51:20
Bonanza for them and I think they
00:51:22
secretly want him Freeburg said it it's
00:51:25
so true he's so entertaining I could not
00:51:27
stop laughing I watched him on CNN and I
00:51:30
was like man it's it's like uh one of
00:51:33
your one of your old TV shows that you
00:51:35
don't really remember watching a lot of
00:51:37
and it comes back on and you're like
00:51:38
he's so ridiculous the things he says
00:51:40
it's true because when he first got when
00:51:42
he first got elected I was so afraid and
00:51:44
then you realize he this guy's just an
00:51:46
Entertainer really he's a terrible
00:51:48
politician Bill Barr said that or yeah
00:51:50
did you see the bar interview yeah the
00:51:51
bar clip that I shared is just bananas
00:51:53
about Trump but so he's a showman and
00:51:55
he's a great showman you know he's
00:51:56
entertaining and you realize that he was
00:51:59
that's all he's ever really wanted to be
00:52:00
was like famous and popular and on
00:52:04
television and and he got all of those
00:52:06
things and he took it to the to the most
00:52:08
infinite level what Bill Barr said was
00:52:10
most insightful that it's chaos when he
00:52:13
actually tries to get things done he
00:52:14
can't get things done right and he'll
00:52:17
tell you all the things that you want to
00:52:19
hear that he wants to that you want to
00:52:22
see get done he did this to Peter Thiel
00:52:24
and Peter Thiel spoken about this
00:52:25
publicly so I'm not saying anything
00:52:28
not a line here I don't know if this is
00:52:30
something that's on the record or not
00:52:31
but it was publicly stated that Peter
00:52:35
was disappointed that Trump did not get
00:52:37
the things done that he said he was
00:52:38
going to get done and I think that's
00:52:39
really what what he does is he incites
00:52:42
he entertains he gets people engaged he
00:52:45
knows what you want to hear he sells you
00:52:46
on it he cripples The Establishment
00:52:49
which everyone feels treated poorly by
00:52:51
that everyone feels held backed by that
00:52:53
everyone feels has taken something from
00:52:55
them that isn't giving something to them
00:52:56
and then he says you know what I'm going
00:52:58
to fix all that for you and then you get
00:53:00
excited by it and then all of a sudden
00:53:02
he doesn't actually deliver it and four
00:53:04
years have gone by and we've forgotten
00:53:05
about it and he's come back in and he's
00:53:07
kind of you know titillating again so
00:53:10
I think I think the reality is he's got
00:53:12
a real shot at getting reelected here oh
00:53:14
my God here's what I wanted pretty
00:53:16
amazing I'll go around the horn I'll
00:53:17
start with you
00:53:18
I mean he said January 6 was like a
00:53:22
beautiful day
00:53:24
he said that everybody in the Republican
00:53:27
Party who said he lost the election is
00:53:30
wrong and that the election was in fact
00:53:32
stolen like he literally doubled down on
00:53:33
every single thing right so at the end
00:53:36
of this he gets his Standing Ovation in
00:53:38
New Hampshire
00:53:39
so
00:53:40
how did CNN pick that audience did they
00:53:42
do that on purpose did they know that
00:53:44
was going to be the outcome but at the
00:53:46
end of the day after that does that
00:53:48
increase his chances of winning the
00:53:51
Republican nomination and the presidency
00:53:52
in your mind sacks yes of course it does
00:53:55
why look well look I mean Donald Trump
00:53:58
showed that he's a force of nature he's
00:54:01
a wrecking ball he went into CNN's
00:54:04
carefully laid trap where he's not just
00:54:06
up against Caitlyn Collins make no
00:54:08
mistake she's got an earpiece in her ear
00:54:10
with all of CNN's researchers and hosts
00:54:13
and producers they're all for us
00:54:16
exactly and he basically demolished sure
00:54:20
he controlled the interview he had the
00:54:21
crowd laughing when he wanted them to
00:54:23
laugh
00:54:24
responding the way he wanted them to
00:54:27
respond and to the point now where the
00:54:30
CNN staffers are like oh my God what did
00:54:32
we do an AOC was basically you know
00:54:34
ringing her hands about how how could
00:54:36
CNN platform him this way
00:54:38
so so look he gave No Quarter whatsoever
00:54:41
like you said he doubled down on
00:54:43
everything he tripled down and he showed
00:54:46
his ability to kind of Bend reality to
00:54:49
his will
00:54:50
so all the strengths of trump that being
00:54:52
said I'm sure that Trump and his
00:54:53
campaign were delighted with what
00:54:55
happened last night because I do think
00:54:56
it makes him more likely to be the
00:54:59
nominee I think first and foremost I
00:55:01
think Republicans want a candidate who
00:55:04
will fight the media and their fake
00:55:06
narratives and lies no matter how many
00:55:08
lies Trump tells they think the media is
00:55:10
the bigger liar and they want someone
00:55:12
who is willing to step in the Lion's Den
00:55:14
and take them on and he is incredibly
00:55:16
adroit and quick on his feet and
00:55:18
DeSantis is imploding
00:55:23
so what would any of them do yeah just
00:55:26
be fair the same as clearly as the
00:55:27
underdog okay but just give the guy a
00:55:29
chance because we haven't seen what he
00:55:30
can do yet but there's no question that
00:55:32
Trump showed an adroitness and a
00:55:35
willingness to counter punch and fight
00:55:37
back that they base the Republican base
00:55:40
definitely responds to now yeah so we
00:55:42
know we know that Trump is happy with
00:55:44
the debate I think the other party that
00:55:46
is super happy with this debate is Biden
00:55:49
and all of his people because as much as
00:55:51
that debate helped Trump in the
00:55:53
Republican primary it did nothing for
00:55:55
him in the general I don't think
00:55:57
like you said Jason he doubled down on
00:55:59
January 6. the campaign ads right
00:56:01
themselves okay they're going to show
00:56:02
footage of January 6 with a tear gas and
00:56:06
the riots being beaten people being shot
00:56:08
people pushing down the barricades and
00:56:10
they're going to do a narrative a
00:56:11
voiceover with Trump saying it was a
00:56:13
beautiful day the people there had love
00:56:15
in their life itself yeah it writes
00:56:17
itself and then you know he doubled down
00:56:19
really strongly on Roe v Wade that was
00:56:21
crazy being overturned he's like yeah
00:56:23
that was I mean I don't have his quote
00:56:25
which again I think it doesn't hurt him
00:56:26
in the Republican primary but it's you
00:56:28
know it it will lead to a campaign
00:56:30
attack at in in the general and there
00:56:32
are other issues as well okay so so the
00:56:34
Biden campaign is super happy right now
00:56:36
because I think the only Republican he
00:56:38
could beat is Trump I think the reverse
00:56:40
is true for Trump I think the only
00:56:41
Democrat who
00:56:43
Trump could beat as Biden I mean they
00:56:45
are both two of the most unpopular
00:56:47
candidates in America in a general
00:56:49
election so they love the fact they're
00:56:51
going to be facing each other but you
00:56:53
know who doesn't is the American people
00:56:55
two-thirds American people don't want
00:56:57
this choice they say they're already
00:56:58
fatigued by it and they're only going to
00:57:00
get more fatigued by it because I think
00:57:02
for the next like you said 18 months
00:57:04
we're going to have the Trump show with
00:57:05
him taking on the media and that plays
00:57:08
into Biden's hands because Biden doesn't
00:57:10
need to campaign he'll just let Trump
00:57:12
and the media beat each other up he'll
00:57:14
do a Rose Garden campaign where once a
00:57:16
week he goes in front of the microphones
00:57:17
and responds to whatever Trump's latest
00:57:19
outrage is he doesn't have the Vigor to
00:57:21
campaign and he won't and then we'll
00:57:23
just see where the chips land I think
00:57:25
that it's it's quite possible here that
00:57:27
after 18 months of trump and the media
00:57:29
beating each other up the American
00:57:31
people just say you know what this Biden
00:57:33
guy is totally senile but I'm like so
00:57:35
tired of the the Trump show I've got
00:57:36
Trump fatigue again I'm just gonna have
00:57:38
to go with Biden and I think I think
00:57:41
this is how Biden gets reelected this is
00:57:43
a disaster for American the fact that we
00:57:45
are putting Biden who's in clearly in
00:57:48
cognitive decline and Trump as the two
00:57:52
candidates again the two candidates
00:57:53
nobody wants makes me think this is just
00:57:57
like a complete disaster for America can
00:58:00
we not find two other candidates chamoth
00:58:02
what did you think coming out of
00:58:04
is stand up special on CNN the Trump
00:58:08
Town Hall stand up special I think that
00:58:11
I'm more surprised by the fact that the
00:58:13
big Republican Mega donors have taken a
00:58:16
big step back away from DeSantis I
00:58:18
thought that if the money train
00:58:20
on the Republican side picked DeSantis
00:58:24
that it would be very difficult for
00:58:25
Trump to overcome it
00:58:28
but he's managed to somehow fade that
00:58:31
bullet too he's like Neo in the matrix
00:58:33
it's like you have these guys shooting
00:58:35
bullets at this guy and he just keeps
00:58:37
somehow
00:58:39
finding a way to evade them but this
00:58:41
week
00:58:42
's main point on that I was just going
00:58:44
to say well Schwartzman step back Ken
00:58:47
Griffin basically has gone silent so
00:58:49
there's a lot of guys that came close to
00:58:51
him and this is what I've maintained
00:58:53
which is I think DeSantis ages poorly
00:58:56
you know he's best before you actually
00:58:58
spend time with him and the more time
00:58:59
people seem to spend and again this is
00:59:01
just evidenced by these big Republican
00:59:04
Mega donors they don't seem to be
00:59:06
running towards this guy they seem to be
00:59:08
at least saying we're going to head yeah
00:59:10
they're waiting Friedberg any thoughts
00:59:12
and then I'll go back to you okay you
00:59:14
went for like 10 minutes
00:59:17
any thoughts on it in terms of is this
00:59:20
make him more electable do you think
00:59:21
he's going to win
00:59:23
for sure got to tell you the CNN thing
00:59:25
yeah
00:59:26
yes post CNN you think do you think he's
00:59:28
gonna win you think he beats Biden the
00:59:31
crazy polling data is that Biden
00:59:33
had you know 20 of the votes going to
00:59:36
RFK Jr who's like a nobody no one knows
00:59:39
candidate and he's beating a sitting
00:59:40
president in his own party so that says
00:59:43
a lot about you know how much support
00:59:45
Biden has and I think that Trump is
00:59:48
going to be pretty appealing as the
00:59:50
anti-biting candidate I mean Biden was
00:59:52
the anti-trump candidate and now turns
00:59:53
the anti-viding candidate and right now
00:59:56
he looks like he's Dynamic and he was uh
01:00:01
a big shift I think RFK Jr feels a lot
01:00:04
like a trump candidate to me too I mean
01:00:06
you know some of the positioning and the
01:00:07
statements and the way he talks and
01:00:09
being anti-establishment he could also
01:00:11
have that appeal
01:00:12
I think there's a non-zero chance Biden
01:00:15
actually doesn't run for re-election at
01:00:17
this point play that out I can play that
01:00:19
out that's a really scary scenario
01:00:20
because I think that's how he got a
01:00:21
president Newsome
01:00:23
listen I mean Newsom is warming up in
01:00:24
the bullpen right now and he's not just
01:00:27
you know hanging out back there and you
01:00:29
know spitting Shaw he's pitching
01:00:31
fastballs very noisily he's been running
01:00:33
TV ads he's been going to Florida he's
01:00:35
been picking fights you know well
01:00:38
outside of his State he is basically
01:00:40
telling the Democratic party putting me
01:00:42
in the game Coach and he's just waiting
01:00:44
for the signal to go he he needs to know
01:00:47
from democratic party insiders in the
01:00:49
establishment that he can go he doesn't
01:00:51
want to risk throwing away his career
01:00:53
challenging Biden but if Biden becomes
01:00:57
too weak to run and he gets the signal
01:01:00
to go he'll go and he can raise a lot of
01:01:01
money and I'm going to explain sorry can
01:01:04
you can you guys just explain both of
01:01:06
you like how does that actually like
01:01:07
what do you guys think happens like
01:01:09
there's a press conference that where
01:01:11
Biden says he's retiring I think he said
01:01:14
after careful thought and consideration
01:01:16
I've made the decision that at my age
01:01:18
I'd like to spend more time with my
01:01:20
family and not continue this Hefty
01:01:22
responsibility and I'd love to see
01:01:24
someone else take the mantle and I think
01:01:26
that that will result you know from a
01:01:29
series of polls that will indicate that
01:01:31
he may not have a shot
01:01:33
if he continues this campaign I think
01:01:35
that I'm not saying that's a certainty I
01:01:37
think that's a non-zero chance right now
01:01:38
that that scenario plays out when that
01:01:41
does play out to Sax's point it's
01:01:43
probably not just news then but there's
01:01:44
probably half a dozen and likely a dozen
01:01:47
folks that pop their head up and want to
01:01:48
get not just kind of have a real run at
01:01:50
the presidency on the Democratic side
01:01:51
but probably end up saying I want to
01:01:53
heighten people's awareness of me and so
01:01:56
on and they all run on that on that
01:01:58
ticket but the DNC might be having a
01:02:00
real tough conversation in the next
01:02:01
couple of months about how Biden's
01:02:03
pulling and whether he really is the
01:02:05
right candidate to have on the ticket so
01:02:08
let's see let me give you a historical
01:02:09
example so I mentioned this I think when
01:02:11
RFK Jr was on the Pod but LBJ was the
01:02:13
sitting Democratic president in 1968 and
01:02:15
he went into the New Hampshire primary
01:02:17
and he won the New Hampshire primary but
01:02:19
not by a big enough margin and a few
01:02:21
weeks later he announced he was leaving
01:02:23
the race because of health reasons but
01:02:25
the specific Challenger who helped
01:02:27
knocked him out of New Hampshire was
01:02:28
Gene McCarthy and then after that
01:02:31
happened Bobby Kennedy got in the race
01:02:33
so we could have a situation here where
01:02:36
it's Bobby Kennedy Jr is you know
01:02:38
initially playing the gene McCarthy role
01:02:40
of being kind of the anti-war
01:02:43
protest candidate who helps knock Biden
01:02:46
out of the race and then who knows I
01:02:49
mean
01:02:50
Gavin Newsom they're going to want to
01:02:52
come in into the race at that point but
01:02:54
remember you know the thing the thing
01:02:56
that happened in early 1968 that caused
01:02:59
LBJ to leave the race is you had the Tet
01:03:01
Offensive
01:03:02
and Cronkite got back from Vietnam
01:03:04
saying the war cannot be won and then at
01:03:07
that point it was like game over well
01:03:08
look this Ukrainian counter offense of
01:03:10
zelinski just announced today that they
01:03:12
need more time so we've been hearing for
01:03:15
months if not a year that you're going
01:03:17
to have a big Ukrainian counteroffensive
01:03:19
in the spring summer of this year and
01:03:21
Ukraine is going to win this war and
01:03:22
instead it looks like it's being
01:03:23
destroyed Ukraine is so this war is
01:03:26
turning into a debacle I think it could
01:03:28
be an even worse debacle by the end of
01:03:30
the year the economy has a banking
01:03:31
crisis going on it's turning into a big
01:03:33
Fiasco so I think it's very possible
01:03:36
that Biden could announce that it's time
01:03:38
for him to step aside and you could see
01:03:40
the floodgates open for Newsom or JB
01:03:43
pritzker or something like that however
01:03:44
let me just say this I think the odds of
01:03:46
Biden leaving the race went down
01:03:49
significantly as a result of last night
01:03:51
because all of the political people
01:03:53
around Biden are saying we know how to
01:03:55
win this thing we just a b tested the
01:03:57
strategy in the midterms remember we had
01:04:00
three quarters of the American people in
01:04:01
the midterms think that we're ready in a
01:04:04
recession
01:04:05
and um and now the country was on the
01:04:07
wrong track and the out-of-power party
01:04:10
is supposed to gain seats and the Red
01:04:11
Wave turned into a puddle why because
01:04:13
Biden's strategy of saying democracy was
01:04:16
on the ballot and running against
01:04:17
January 6. it actually worked I'm not
01:04:20
saying I bought that argument but enough
01:04:21
Independents did Independence ended up
01:04:24
breaking for Biden and the Democrats
01:04:26
Republicans didn't but Independence did
01:04:29
so Independents have bought that
01:04:31
argument in the midterms in and Trump
01:04:33
again if he's the nominee they're going
01:04:35
to run that same Playbook now it's not
01:04:37
guaranteed to work I think this thing's
01:04:40
going to be a nail biter I think it's
01:04:41
going to be a toss-up if it's buying
01:04:43
versus Trump but I think that Biden's
01:04:45
people have to feel very good about this
01:04:47
matchup because they feel like they
01:04:49
already know how to run this campaign
01:04:50
this is what he said about Roe v Wade it
01:04:52
was such a great victory
01:04:54
I mean can you imagine how that's going
01:04:57
to play with Women Voters they're just
01:05:00
gonna be like yeah no it was not a great
01:05:02
Victory you took away our right to
01:05:04
choose for ourselves well definitely
01:05:06
definitely Democratic Women Voters will
01:05:08
not like it but there's a lot of
01:05:09
Republican Women Voters that that will
01:05:11
support that state here let me give you
01:05:12
this 30 let me give you this data of the
01:05:15
country so take a look at this I I don't
01:05:17
think you're right Jason I just shared
01:05:19
with you kind of the Reuters polling
01:05:21
data the most recent one and the number
01:05:23
one issue at 24 of likely voters that
01:05:27
they care about is the economy 24 number
01:05:30
two is crime at 14 number three is
01:05:32
immigration at nine percent number four
01:05:34
is inequality at six percent and on and
01:05:36
on and on only when you get down to like
01:05:38
number 10 you get to abortion which
01:05:40
comes in at three percent two percent of
01:05:43
Democrats one percent or you know three
01:05:45
percent four percent of Democrats one
01:05:46
percent of Republicans yeah but what is
01:05:48
the margin of the election well I don't
01:05:49
think that that's the issue that breaks
01:05:51
it I think there's other things that
01:05:52
there's significant differences on
01:05:54
particularly around crime and
01:05:55
immigration inequality that are pulling
01:05:58
much higher in terms of importance to
01:05:59
likely voters do they drive turnout like
01:06:02
abortion does
01:06:03
I don't know I'm just I'm just thinking
01:06:05
these numbers it's like you know one to
01:06:07
three percent of people saying it
01:06:08
matters to them is not that significant
01:06:10
I think these other topics are going to
01:06:12
be very divisive and very different uh
01:06:14
very polar different than what people
01:06:16
say in a poll and what people turn out
01:06:17
to vote for like for some people that is
01:06:20
a major issue but who knows I think it's
01:06:24
a toss-up basically look I like I said I
01:06:26
think the only candidate that Biden
01:06:28
could beat is Trump and Biden's probably
01:06:30
the only sitting president that Trump
01:06:32
can beat so I mean again they're both it
01:06:35
poll nationally in the mid 30s and this
01:06:37
is the choice we have I Gotta Give sacks
01:06:40
his red meat I saw these uh Republicans
01:06:43
are going on a revenge tour here to uh
01:06:46
go after the Biden family they said they
01:06:48
would and they have so the oversight uh
01:06:52
house oversight committee reveals a
01:06:54
guess nine Biden family members received
01:06:58
wire transcripts from foreign Nationals
01:06:59
by shell corporations and they don't
01:07:02
have any connections to
01:07:04
Biden
01:07:05
we know that Hunter was securing the bag
01:07:07
all over the planet he's clearly a
01:07:09
grifter I don't think there's any doubt
01:07:10
about that
01:07:12
what's the truth here and how much
01:07:14
evidence do they have because this is
01:07:17
obviously a partisan thing just like
01:07:18
there were partisan things on the other
01:07:19
side when they were investigating Trump
01:07:20
so how do you look at this information
01:07:23
this revelation
01:07:25
they keep they're using this like
01:07:26
fighting cried crime family meme
01:07:30
do you think this is actually evidence
01:07:32
of something or is it just another Rich
01:07:34
family with a bunch of llc's
01:07:37
another Rich family wait how do they get
01:07:39
rich good question the Kennedys were a
01:07:41
rich family yeah but the bidens were not
01:07:44
a rich family so how do they get rich
01:07:46
their only business is they don't have
01:07:48
money they don't know how much money is
01:07:50
actually here and how it's being what
01:07:53
what evidence they have it's not red
01:07:55
meat for me I just think the media
01:07:56
should have done its job investigating
01:07:57
the story properly and what this
01:08:00
investigation has turned up is that
01:08:01
there's a lot of members of the buying
01:08:02
family I think they're up to like 10 or
01:08:04
12 or something we've received payments
01:08:06
flowing from foreign governments no one
01:08:08
can tell you what any of those people
01:08:10
did in exchange for the money it does
01:08:13
appear to be an influence peddling
01:08:14
operation I don't know whether that's
01:08:17
influence paddling operation so people
01:08:19
were giving money again the the point is
01:08:21
that why would you give money to members
01:08:23
of the buy-in family it presumably for
01:08:25
some sort of access to the person who's
01:08:28
been in Washington for 50 years did they
01:08:31
know who gave the money is it China is
01:08:32
it Ukraine do they have that data well I
01:08:35
think we know about barisma which is a I
01:08:37
see it going to Hunter yeah yeah and
01:08:40
then I think China is another one
01:08:43
now I don't know what the quid pro quo
01:08:45
is for that money but I wonder if this
01:08:47
is like the Kraken or if this was
01:08:48
actually reality because they seem to be
01:08:50
short on actual facts I think they got a
01:08:52
lot there but I mean they're putting out
01:08:54
all these reports but
01:08:56
listen I think to me the the actually
01:08:58
the bigger story or the bigger Scandal
01:09:00
is just more details on the way that the
01:09:03
security State wrote that fake letter
01:09:06
basically calling the honor buying story
01:09:08
Russian disinformation there's an email
01:09:09
now that just came out where Mike
01:09:12
Morrell is corresponding with John
01:09:14
Brennan and Morel specifically says
01:09:16
we're creating the letter to give Biden
01:09:19
a talking point in the debate they're
01:09:21
the former CI directors right yeah
01:09:22
exactly both of them were Ciara
01:09:24
directors at different points so there's
01:09:25
no question now that that letter
01:09:28
where 51 Security State officials
01:09:31
claimed that the hunter bind story is
01:09:33
Russian deformation that was all
01:09:35
basically a political dirty trick and
01:09:37
dirty tricks happen but I don't think
01:09:39
the CIA should be involved that's the
01:09:41
thing
01:09:42
I don't think the the branches of our
01:09:45
government should be involved in helping
01:09:46
to get any candidates these guys
01:09:50
they're former but foreign
01:10:04
so that was another thing that came out
01:10:05
well that's what bothers me more than
01:10:07
anything is I do not think our permanent
01:10:10
government especially security agencies
01:10:13
should be involved in partisan politics
01:10:15
they really need to stay out that is
01:10:17
election meddling that bothers me that's
01:10:19
a form of corruption that I think is
01:10:21
even worse
01:10:22
than monetary payments take out can you
01:10:24
tell us about your trip to the Middle
01:10:26
East what have you been doing there so
01:10:28
our bestie Brad gerstner was coming here
01:10:30
and we were at the poker game A couple
01:10:31
weeks ago maybe a month ago and he said
01:10:33
he was going and I've always wanted to
01:10:35
come to UAE and I've never seen Dubai
01:10:37
or Abu Dhabi and so I said yeah I'd love
01:10:41
to go with you and we did a couple
01:10:42
speaking gigs where are you staying so
01:10:45
four seasons in Ritz Four Seasons in Abu
01:10:47
Dhabi and the Ritz here in Dubai and I
01:10:51
was just going to do these three
01:10:52
speaking gigs a podcast and isn't IFC in
01:10:55
Dubai incredible
01:10:59
yeah I mean it's it's and it's all been
01:11:02
built in the last 10 years I I would say
01:11:04
generally speaking what I'm super
01:11:05
impressed about and I I'm not it's not a
01:11:07
fundraising trip I was just going but
01:11:09
then uh one of your former employees
01:11:12
chamoth
01:11:14
set me up with a bunch of meetings
01:11:15
because it's like hey there's a lot of
01:11:16
people who want to meet you so I I'm
01:11:18
doing like a maybe a dozen meetings or
01:11:20
so and there is
01:11:23
um a real this is a very Progressive
01:11:26
place the the UAE of all the uh and
01:11:28
Dubai obviously is very Progressive and
01:11:31
so it reminds me of like you know
01:11:33
Silicon Valley in the early days where
01:11:35
everybody's doing something and it's
01:11:36
incredibly Cosmopolitan there's only 500
01:11:39
000 Nationals but there's 10 million
01:11:40
people here more so there are people
01:11:42
spoken than any other language in Dubai
01:11:45
yeah I mean the number of people here
01:11:46
from all around the world is Bonkers and
01:11:49
then everybody's working on something
01:11:50
everybody's got a project
01:11:53
and the people are delightful did you go
01:11:55
to the French restaurant I told you
01:11:56
about in Abu Dhabi I did this question
01:11:58
you got this ribeye did you get the
01:11:59
ribeye yeah we had like a family solving
01:12:01
so I didn't get the ribeye but it was it
01:12:02
was exceptional the food's exceptional
01:12:04
it's just like incredibly cost of pollen
01:12:05
it's like going to New York
01:12:07
you know or London and they are there's
01:12:10
a very unique moment in time right now
01:12:12
sax when you go to Abu Dhabi and you
01:12:14
stand you stay at the Four Seasons in
01:12:16
the adgm go to this French restaurant
01:12:18
and order the rib eye it is a top five
01:12:21
steak I've ever had top five I've never
01:12:23
been there I've never been to the Middle
01:12:24
East Side so delicious so delicious so
01:12:26
delicious and in Dubai do not stay at
01:12:30
the Ritz in IFC IFC is incredible but
01:12:32
the Ritz sucks stay at the Bulgari Hotel
01:12:35
beautiful just beautiful but there's a
01:12:37
very unique moment of time I literally
01:12:39
came down the elevator at the Four
01:12:41
Seasons and I met four or five people
01:12:43
from Silicon Valley in the lobby and
01:12:46
then I came out of dinner uh and there
01:12:48
was a table of Silicon Valley
01:12:49
entrepreneurs and Venture capitalists it
01:12:52
is I mean it's basically like going to
01:12:55
the Rosewood in in Abu Dhabi but what a
01:12:58
statement that is
01:12:59
like the US is tapped out we are like
01:13:02
broke that's I think basically the they
01:13:05
are the way it's been explained to me is
01:13:07
they believe they have 20 years 30 years
01:13:09
to convert the oil economy into a
01:13:12
technology Capital allocator economy and
01:13:14
so they want to make Evergreen funds to
01:13:17
invest they haven't had a chance to
01:13:19
invest in Venture Capital because most
01:13:21
Venture Capital there weren't that many
01:13:22
they were fully allocated and there was
01:13:25
no opportunity now with what's happened
01:13:27
in the United States in this pullback
01:13:29
and sort of the cycle starting over
01:13:30
again I think there's an opportunity for
01:13:32
them to invest in some funds and start
01:13:34
relationships and then you know we've
01:13:36
had a long talk here about human rights
01:13:38
in different countries and it's not a
01:13:40
monolith over here and I mean I don't
01:13:42
know who needs to hear that exactly but
01:13:43
there there's these countries are very
01:13:45
different very different I'm sure they
01:13:47
appreciate your lectures on that subject
01:13:49
Jacob actually you know what's
01:13:50
interesting we didn't have rushers on it
01:13:52
but we had I've had multiple
01:13:53
conversations about these issues enjoy
01:13:56
your lectures on this pod
01:13:58
I Don't lecture about it I think these
01:14:00
are important issues that people discuss
01:14:01
and the serious thing is
01:14:03
a number of these countries are majority
01:14:05
young people and they are reforming very
01:14:09
quickly and rights are changing and so
01:14:12
the question is
01:14:14
for you know all of us and uh for the
01:14:18
world is do we collaborate and you know
01:14:22
support as they
01:14:24
you know become more liberal and become
01:14:26
more tolerant
01:14:28
and they you know become more Western
01:14:30
basically and young people it's very
01:14:33
Western here and the parties going on
01:14:34
here are pretty much like the parties I
01:14:36
attended in LA or New York and so I
01:14:38
think actually we're probably not as at
01:14:42
least UAE and in a couple of countries
01:14:43
here are not as
01:14:45
disparate as like we one might think I'm
01:14:47
glad you did the trip because I'm glad
01:14:49
to hear you talking like that that there
01:14:51
isn't an Us Versus Them point of view
01:14:53
you know visiting and seeing the culture
01:14:55
and the intention of the people within
01:14:57
the culture
01:14:59
super important and I think it's it's
01:15:01
good that you did it so good to hear it
01:15:03
I wanted to share the video that these
01:15:04
guys did but let's do it next week I
01:15:06
think it's really it's worth it
01:15:08
no the um the Lord of the Rings one that
01:15:11
this guy did which is amazing wait what
01:15:14
there's a Lord of the Rings video no not
01:15:16
with us not with us Jacob oh I don't
01:15:18
want to watch it okay why would I want
01:15:19
to watch that yeah
01:15:21
thank you Elvis yeah exactly
01:15:25
a tiger video for the third time did you
01:15:27
see that yeah I took an outtake from the
01:15:30
guy's video on Lord of the Rings we'll
01:15:33
put the link in the show notes but this
01:15:34
guy made this incredible AI generated
01:15:36
Wes Anderson does Lord of the Rings oh I
01:15:40
did see that did you see how that was
01:15:41
amazing and uh the clip I'm using today
01:15:43
as a background is is an outtake uh from
01:15:46
the trailer did you see it sax
01:15:49
oh my God it's so funny the guy is
01:15:51
incredible but I mean the creativity and
01:15:55
the potential with AI it's just so
01:15:57
evident this guy talks about it on his
01:15:59
website and on his Twitter feed he did
01:16:01
it in a couple of days he learned a
01:16:03
bunch of new AI tools a lot of
01:16:05
generative tools were integrated to make
01:16:07
this possible it's an amazing two minute
01:16:09
piece of art that I think really speaks
01:16:12
to
01:16:13
the creativity being Unleashed with AI
01:16:15
again going back to this point about it
01:16:17
not just being about Job reduction and
01:16:19
reductionism but it's really about
01:16:20
unleashing new potential that we didn't
01:16:22
Envision before separately there'll be
01:16:24
another I think we should talk about
01:16:25
this next week but there's now this kind
01:16:27
of generative video game
01:16:28
platform that's being demoed where you
01:16:31
can instruct the video game intentions
01:16:33
and it generates a immersive video game
01:16:35
experience for you on the fly with
01:16:37
something we talked about a couple
01:16:38
episodes probably a couple months ago at
01:16:39
this point something on this week in
01:16:41
startups who showed a video game where
01:16:43
he made like you make 25 objects in the
01:16:45
game it's really incredible in a certain
01:16:47
style and then you say I want to make
01:16:48
more characters like that I want to make
01:16:50
more backgrounds like that like you take
01:16:51
a Wes Anderson style whatever and it
01:16:53
just generates them for you and it just
01:16:54
keeps generating them for you so one
01:16:57
artist can make a palette for a game and
01:16:59
you say I want to have a penguin in my
01:17:00
game I want to have a zombie in my game
01:17:01
yeah that's exactly right yeah and it
01:17:04
just does it and then people who are
01:17:06
playing the game can say what they want
01:17:08
with prompts and it creates it and you
01:17:10
can drive a storyline and then you can
01:17:12
integrate with other people's story
01:17:13
lines I mean it's really powerful anyway
01:17:14
I gotta run for David Friedberg David
01:17:18
sacked here Heim your boy J Cal love you
01:17:22
boys we'll see you all next time on the
01:17:23
all-in podcast
01:17:28
[Music]
01:17:31
playing yeah with the greatest hits here
01:17:33
on Z100 the balenciago video featuring
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The all in cast with cameos by Brian
01:17:38
Armstrong Keith Urban boy and Elon Musk
01:17:41
coming at you Balenciaga Friday night
01:17:44
eight o'clock hardest ticket in New York
01:17:46
foreign
01:17:52
[Music]
01:17:57
that's when you Balenciaga
01:18:00
[Music]
01:18:04
fed mullet quantitative tightening in
01:18:06
the front quantitative easing in the
01:18:08
back
01:18:09
[Music]
01:18:17
the greatest source of value and wealth
01:18:19
creation in the 22nd century could be
01:18:21
driven by terrestrial nucleosynthesis
01:18:25
thank you
01:18:27
getting dressed is easy owning the
01:18:29
runway is hard
01:18:31
[Music]
01:18:34
the big winners of Tomorrow will likely
01:18:36
be the Minecraft youtubers of today
01:18:42
it's easier than ever to confuse
01:18:45
popularity and truth I think it is
01:18:47
possible for ordinary people to choose
01:18:49
to be Balenciaga
01:18:53
the mainstream media is the most h m
01:18:56
it's ever been
01:19:00
when I left Facebook I left an enormous
01:19:03
amount of equity on the table I thought
01:19:05
I don't want to be a slave to money I
01:19:08
want to be a slave to something bigger
01:19:09
Balenciaga
