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Tech Stocks Take a Dive | Pivot

July 26, 2024 / 06:53

This episode discusses the recent declines in NASDAQ, Alphabet, and Tesla's stock prices due to disappointing earnings reports. Key topics include Alphabet's slowing advertising growth and Tesla's struggles in the EV market.

Scott highlights Alphabet's earnings, noting a 11% rise in advertising sales, down from 13% the previous quarter. The company also faced challenges with its AI initiative, Gemini, which is not gaining traction compared to competitors like OpenAI.

In contrast, Tesla's earnings report revealed a 10% drop in shares, with concerns about the company's product lineup and the viability of its robo-taxi plans. Scott mentions that Tesla's valuation is significantly higher than traditional automakers, raising questions about its future profitability.

The conversation touches on corporate governance issues, particularly Elon Musk's decision-making and the impact of his ventures outside of Tesla's core business. Scott expresses disappointment in Tesla's current direction and missed opportunities for innovation.

Overall, the episode provides a critical analysis of the current state of these tech giants and their future prospects in a competitive market.

TL;DR

NASDAQ drops due to Alphabet and Tesla's disappointing earnings reports, raising concerns about their future growth and corporate governance.

Video

00:00:00
Scott we're back for our second big
00:00:01
story the NASDAQ has taken its biggest
00:00:03
tumble since 2022 thanks to earnings
00:00:04
reports from alphabet and Tesla
00:00:06
alphabet's quarterly earning showed a
00:00:08
slowing growth in advertising sales with
00:00:10
ad sales Rising 11% down from 13% the
00:00:13
previous quarter on top of that whiz the
00:00:14
cyber security startup we had talked
00:00:16
about alphabet plan to acquire had
00:00:18
decided to turn down the $23 billion
00:00:20
offer alphabet Shares are down almost 5%
00:00:23
in the last five days the time of the
00:00:25
taping um I want to talk about this but
00:00:27
I'm going to mention Tesla earnings have
00:00:29
showed a seven % line with auto Revenue
00:00:31
with earnings per share coming down
00:00:32
below Wall Street estimates Sals the
00:00:34
shares are down 10% last 5 days given up
00:00:36
a lot of the gains they've been making
00:00:38
um NASDAQ is down over 3% in the last
00:00:41
five days and the S&P is down 2% because
00:00:42
of these tech companies um I'd love to
00:00:45
hear your thoughts on this this is your
00:00:47
big area of expertise talk a little bit
00:00:49
about uh alphabet first and then Tesla
00:00:51
well alphabet actually had a decent
00:00:52
quarter it's just that one I mean
00:00:55
alphabet's dealing with this existential
00:00:57
issue of having one foot in and one foot
00:00:59
out of AI in the sense that they have
00:01:01
Gemini but Gemini gets about an eighth
00:01:04
of the traffic of open AI or of chap GPT
00:01:07
and when you think about all the Head
00:01:08
Start in the captive audience across
00:01:10
Google and Android to have only the
00:01:12
eighth of the traffic of what is
00:01:14
supposed to be a startup but is really
00:01:16
just Microsoft AI is unusual and the
00:01:19
question is they're trying to
00:01:20
incorporate AI into their core platform
00:01:23
search and there's still a little bit
00:01:25
people would argue trapped in the
00:01:26
innovator's dilemma and that is they
00:01:28
don't want to go all in on Gemini at the
00:01:30
risk of cannibalizing this quar of a
00:01:32
trillion dollar toll booth amazing best
00:01:34
business probably in history called
00:01:36
search so there's still kind of I would
00:01:38
argue a little bit one foot in one foot
00:01:39
out trying to have their cake and eat it
00:01:41
too I understand why they're doing
00:01:43
people got spooked about YouTube uh
00:01:45
sales slowing I didn't think it was that
00:01:47
big a deal and the other thing that's
00:01:49
hurting their earnings is like everyone
00:01:50
else they're now except for Apple
00:01:52
they're now in this arms race and their
00:01:54
capex right was um dramatically up sort
00:01:57
of which sort of hit hit earnings the
00:02:00
bigger story I think or what was more
00:02:03
like genuinely bad news was um Tesla and
00:02:07
that is the EV Market I think it's
00:02:10
interesting an interesting analogy would
00:02:11
be the streaming market and that is it
00:02:13
was
00:02:22
overinvestment
00:02:24
EV was $88,500 more expensive than its
00:02:28
um than its intern combustion Pier now
00:02:32
that number that margin at premium has
00:02:34
dropped to $1,500 and the F-150
00:02:36
Lightning the Eevee is actually $10,000
00:02:39
less than its internal combustion uh
00:02:41
counterpart probably because they
00:02:43
produce too many in addition that while
00:02:46
the market continues to grow Tesla has
00:02:48
not a lot of people would describe its
00:02:49
products as a bit tired they have made a
00:02:51
lot of progress around describe them
00:02:53
they are a bit tired let's you know
00:02:54
we've been saying that for a year like
00:02:57
where's their new stuff except for that
00:02:59
heinous cyber truck I drove in a a
00:03:01
friend of mine is this master of the
00:03:03
universe hedge guy I went out to the
00:03:05
Hamptons to see him and he has a matte
00:03:07
black cyber truck and people were
00:03:09
stopped and staring at it and it's just
00:03:11
I I drove in it I would describe it as a
00:03:13
ridiculous car out of a out of a
00:03:15
Simpsons episode I think it's insane but
00:03:17
were you embarrassed to get in it I'd be
00:03:18
embarrassed to get in it oh no there's a
00:03:21
lot of I've done that's much more
00:03:24
embarrassing but what's the problem what
00:03:26
does he have to do here he obviously was
00:03:28
he took a vote on Twitter whe whether to
00:03:31
to invest $5 billion doll in xai I mean
00:03:34
I'm literally like when is the SEC going
00:03:36
to come and arrest this fella well first
00:03:38
I mean there's a couple things one the
00:03:40
way if you listen to the earnings call
00:03:41
the questions were more pointed and more
00:03:43
heated than they've been in a long time
00:03:44
to this point the earnings calls have
00:03:46
been a bunch of stenographers and sick
00:03:48
ofense thanking him for a great quarter
00:03:51
this one was distinctly like boss we
00:03:53
have been waiting for a robo taxi for 5
00:03:55
years you know how frustrating that is
00:03:57
to be on a corner when you call and they
00:03:59
say oh a robo tax is just it's a minute
00:04:02
away it's a year away he's even saying
00:04:04
now that it could be by the end of the
00:04:06
year but it might be 2025 he said I
00:04:08
think in 2019 or 2020 we were a year
00:04:11
away and people's patience oh no no he
00:04:13
constantly constant people's patience is
00:04:15
is um really uh really wearing thin but
00:04:18
more than anything I'm a valuation guy
00:04:21
if you look at forward earnings Ford
00:04:24
trades at seven times forward earnings
00:04:26
GM trades at five times forward earnings
00:04:28
Ferrari an AM amazing company with you
00:04:30
want to talk about a moat trades it 50
00:04:33
times right um uh Tesla trades at 99
00:04:39
times forward earning earnings and the
00:04:40
moment you say that people say well it's
00:04:41
not a car company it's an energy company
00:04:44
it's going to be a robo tax something
00:04:46
else the scariest thing in that earnings
00:04:48
call is that their 2030 projected
00:04:51
profits they're saying 80% of those
00:04:54
projected profits will come from its
00:04:56
Robo taxi division right so they are
00:04:59
estim ating that four fifths of their
00:05:01
profit are going to come from a division
00:05:03
in a technology that they haven't shown
00:05:05
an ability to even deliver yet I know I
00:05:08
I need to I just real quick need to
00:05:09
correct myself it wasn't the company it
00:05:11
was R Kathy Woods which makes it batet
00:05:13
crazy anyways but she was saying 90% of
00:05:16
Tesla's Enterprise Value earnings will
00:05:18
be attributed to the robo taxi business
00:05:20
by 2021 you know what I was thinking
00:05:23
when I heard these I was like this guy
00:05:25
had everything like he had it like he
00:05:27
could have shifted into to new products
00:05:30
new exciting things he could of owned it
00:05:33
like really been Ferrari right and he's
00:05:36
just blown it here in a way that I I
00:05:39
it's sort of sad because it was a very
00:05:41
good company and it still is in a lot of
00:05:44
ways it's just I'm I'm just the
00:05:47
corporate governance here I mean it's
00:05:49
just the idea that you would say to
00:05:52
Tesla shareholders I'm going to take5
00:05:55
billion of our hard-earned cash flow and
00:05:58
use it to try and take my other failing
00:06:00
company and put on an AI
00:06:03
dress you just that wouldn't even be a
00:06:06
conversation at a board level of most
00:06:08
companies they' be like no stay focused
00:06:09
on we do cars Boss we're not we're not
00:06:12
in media and we're not interested in
00:06:13
funding your adventures in AI media with
00:06:17
our hard-earned money and instead he
00:06:19
takes to a Twitter poll like have you
00:06:22
pulled your board members that represent
00:06:24
the shareholders at Tesla but again do
00:06:28
corporate governance is sort of a a a
00:06:31
cute novelty we used to talk about
00:06:33
before before musk it is such a waste I
00:06:36
was just thinking you know I'm not
00:06:37
inclined to him in any way but I feel
00:06:39
bad because it was a really good you
00:06:41
know what I mean like you're like why
00:06:43
did you go out with that girl when you
00:06:44
had this girl anyway people make bad bad
00:06:47
choices

Episode Highlights

  • NASDAQ's Biggest Tumble Since 2022
    The NASDAQ has taken its biggest tumble since 2022, driven by disappointing earnings from Alphabet and Tesla.
    “Alphabet shares are down almost 5%.”
    @ 00m 20s
    July 26, 2024
  • Tesla's Earnings Call Frustration
    Tesla's earnings call revealed growing frustration over delays in their robo taxi technology.
    “People's patience is really wearing thin.”
    @ 04m 15s
    July 26, 2024
  • Tesla's Valuation Concerns
    Tesla's high valuation raises eyebrows as most projected profits hinge on unproven technology.
    “Tesla trades at 99 times forward earnings.”
    @ 04m 39s
    July 26, 2024

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Alphabet Earnings00:06
  • Tesla Frustration04:15
  • Valuation Issues04:39

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

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