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[Music]
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I think the healthc care act will
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definitely survive the new Congress. The
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Republicans simply don't have the votes
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in order to do a full repeal. They don't
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have control of the Senate. They
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certainly don't have a filibuster um
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majority uh much less a simple majority.
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And so I think you're going to see House
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Republicans bring it up on their
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symbolic act. That's why a lot of them
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got elected. But they don't simply have
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the votes to do it. In fact, this is uh
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really part of
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um in a historic context, we've seen
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this before where Truman and Johnson and
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other presidents who um've seen uh in
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their midterm elections, Republicans
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come in and under the idea that we're
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going to repeal and undo and they've
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almost never been successful at doing
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that. And so we have a ratchet effect in
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public policy and we're we've ratcheted
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up and it'll bring in the Republicans,
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but they're not going to be able to do
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much to bring it down. I think the
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provisions of the healthc care bill that
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they will claim is the um the ones that
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they dislike the most are are certainly
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the mandates. the mandates just strike
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people as big government and uh just
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kind of the wrong thing to do in terms
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of for free and um uh society and um and
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certainly in terms of um free enterprise
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and all that. The mandates why they're
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there is because you don't want people
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dropping their health care and then just
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getting the cheap insurance when they
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get sick. And so the mandates are really
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part of a larger package. And so they
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can't just undo the mandates. If they
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just somehow were able to undo the
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mandates and they don't have the votes
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to do it, but if somehow they could, um
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that would actually be disastrous
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because that would be enormous adverse
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selection problem. People would just
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drop their insurance and then get it
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right when they need it and that would
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be incredibly costly. And so it's either
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they would have to somehow undo the
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whole package or do nothing. But they
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don't want to just u touch the mandates.
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So what we mean by mandates is that
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people basically are required to buy
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health care or face significant
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penalties if they don't. So for all
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practical purposes, people would be
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almost crazy not to buy health care
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because it would be uh just too
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expensive or of course they get it
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through their employer. So the mandate
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is that I can either prove that I got it
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through my employer or that I I have to
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buy it. Um otherwise they face a big
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tax. So, Congress has a lot of tools at
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its ability to the extent that something
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is mandatory spending, they can't really
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touch it unless they actually change the
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law. And so, things like social
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security, man, uh, Medicare or called
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mandatory spending and the health care
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act for the most part comes under
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mandatory spending to the extent that
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there is some discretionary aspect, what
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they call discretionary spending. So
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that's things that like on roads, roads
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is discretionary and um some education
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programs. Um then they could try to deny
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funding of that. But that's going to be
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very few parts of this program. So in
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term in terms of the Republicans wish
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list, you know, candly, especially if
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we're talking about the House
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Republicans, what they would really want
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to do with healthcare is really just to
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zero out the bill. I mean, just to undo
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it. I don't think that they're um
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there's a lot of parts of the bill that
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they they really support. And again, I
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it would be dangerous just to do un um
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some parts of it and not other parts.
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And so you it's either all or nothing.
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Some additions that they would like to
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see on top of it would certainly be uh
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curbs of malpractice. And that's going
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to obviously be a traditionally has
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always been a very tough fight. Uh the
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US has very high malpractice rates
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because um uh quite frankly lobbyists
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who in favor of it are very powerful. So
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in terms of what the elections mean for
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the unemployment outlook I I don't think
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it has a big impact either way. Um it's
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mainly a monetary policy um issue at
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this point. the impact of the federal
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government um is going to be fairly
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minor at this point because the debt
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that currently exists is has already
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been produced and it's there's not going
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to be much change going forward. A in
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terms of entitlements, the Republicans
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in theory are supposed to be the guys
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who are saying, you know, there's a
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massive problem on the uh it used to be
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on the long horizon, now it's pretty
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soon. And you know, they're going to try
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to um curb the growth rate of those of
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the growth of those programs. And if you
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can curb the growth rate, you could have
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a big impact. Um quite frankly, I think
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uh that's still going to be a very tough
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fight. And if Republicans push too hard,
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they they they're going to fear u a big
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backlash if any perception of taking
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away benefits targeted for old people. I
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I don't see uh a lot of the DoddFrank
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bill itself being reversed, but the
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DoddFrank bill is really just an
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apparatus for lots of additional
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regulation and discussion. The DoddFrank
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bill creates an outline. It doesn't
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actually um impose a lot of the rules.
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And so I actually view the Republican um
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uh control of the House as probably a
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negative thing when it comes and I say
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this as a former political appointee as
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a Republican. Um I I see it as probably
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a negative and the reason why is because
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I think consumer protection rules in the
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area of finance are simply too weak. And
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I don't see um uh the Republicans uh
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really being um
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going to be very aggressive at uh
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furthering consumer protection rules.
