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[Music]
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well I mean the tax cuts are are on the
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horizon here and it's going to be even
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before the new Congressional leaders
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come in it's going to be taken up in
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this lame duck session right now and
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it's it's pretty unclear to me what uh
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what the Democrats are going to do uh
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about these expiring Bush tax cuts and I
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think that's probably what business is
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most most uh in tune to right now uh and
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Obama has said his his preference is to
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keep the Bush tax cuts for people who um
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make $250,000 or less but we also we
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also know the Republicans want more than
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just that we have expiring uh uh this
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year a 0% tax rate on the estate tax
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which is go back up to its pre Bush tax
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cut levels next year so you just have a
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lot of unknowns about about what's going
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to happen with tax policy coming up and
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I I think the Democrats most likely may
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want to to moderate their their platform
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a little bit and and probably give a
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little bit more after this but I think
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it remains to be seen what happens in in
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the next six weeks I think anyone's
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guess is is as good as mine about that I
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think the one the one major difference
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about this shift from what we saw in '94
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was we don't have both the house and the
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Senate going to Republicans the
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Democrats will still uh control the
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Senate uh and they'll probably work both
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ways for them in some
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ways having control of of a body is
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useful because you get to set the agenda
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for things like Supreme Court
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nominations this could be very important
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on the other hand the Republicans have
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some cover now in in the sense that they
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can they can do a lot of stuff in the
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house that has no real chance of ever
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going to the president and they can they
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can make the Democrats out to be the bad
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guy and Democrats can do the same thing
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to the Republicans and somewhat too so I
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think there's going to be a lot of
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of bills that are pretty separate being
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passed by the Senate and the house and
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then this makes what we call the
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conference committees very important
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because this is where the Senate and the
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house have to come together and try to
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reconcile what the what the two are
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doing and uh I think you'll see a lot of
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power going to the people on these
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conference commities in the upcoming
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Congress yeah the Tea Party is really
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interesting looking back on the on the
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exit polls that came out of polling
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people following the when they're
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leaving the polling place we asked
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people uh what do you think about the
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Tea Party and this is essentially just a
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new way political scientists like to ask
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people what your party ID and this is
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almost the exact same question it turned
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out Republicans but almost 90% of them
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said they like the tea party Democrats
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almost 90% of them said they didn't
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Independence were kind of down the
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middle and so what the Tea Party is is
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still pretty IL defined and it'll be
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interesting coming up with these uh
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Congressional leadership elections the
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Republicans are going to elect their own
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leaders for the house in in the upcoming
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weeks and Michelle Bachman who I think
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is thought of one of the the standard
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bearers of what many people think the
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Tea Party is is running for one of the
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leadership positions and seeing how how
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she does because so far it seems like
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her conservative colleagues in the house
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are only lukewarm towards her candidacy
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and are are putting more support towards
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uh a more traditional Conservative
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candidate so what the Tea Party morphs
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into I think is going to be interesting
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to see and whether it just sort of goes
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back into the Republican party or has
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has has life of his own and whether we
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actually see candidates running as a
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third party as tea party candidates in
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the 2012 election will be really
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interesting to watch yes it was an
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interesting question about what what
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these elections meant to political
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moderates on one hand there was a lot of
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political moderates who who lost many of
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these were Democrats who were in
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districts that John McCain got a
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majority of the votes for president but
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they managed to win a seat in 2008 uh
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and so in some ways this is just
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reverting back to in some ways the ways
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things should be that Republicans
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holding seats and Republican leaning
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districts you also had in Pennsylvania
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in the Philadelphia area a number of
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districts that are very much swing
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districts can vote for either Democrat
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or Republican candidates these were
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places where Democratic moderates not
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not blue dog Democrats but Democrat
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moderates did lose and I think what's
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interesting about it was it seemed to be
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at least on initial glance not that
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related to how they they voted on the
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controversial legislation in the in the
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last Congress so even Democrats who
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voted for uh against against the
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healthcare bill bill or against cap and
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trade they were still paying a political
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price for being for Democrats despite
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their voting history as a political
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scientists we find this very interesting
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because there's there's past research
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that suggests that how you vote on
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bills relates back to how your constitu
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vote on you and so uh I
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think if this goes back to your question
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on uh does this mean the end of
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moderates in some ways if in fact people
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are going to punish the people from the
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party uh in charge and not just how you
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voted on bills this could be a big
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problem for moderates because this makes
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it hard for for moderate candidates to
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stick out from from their party's
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platform so
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um you know it remains to be seen what
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this means for for moderates in the
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upcoming election but certainly in in in
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this election moderating your positions
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didn't seem to have a whole lot of
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electoral benefit though we haven't had
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a whole lot of time to go through the
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data and in fine too you might find some
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some effect there but it certainly
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wasn't it didn't mean you voted for you
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voted against Healthcare and you're a
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Democrat and you survive versus the ones
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who who
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voted sorry I say that again those who
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voted against Healthcare did not survive
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any more so than the ones who who did I
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guess that was more in the in the
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Republican primaries we saw that so you
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saw that in Alaska where uh or an
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incumbent moderate Senator lost to a
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so-called Tea Party candidate you saw it
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with Mike Castle losing to Christino
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Donal in Delaware um and so I think
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it'll be interesting to see going
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forward to the 2012 Republican primaries
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do you see this trend continue do you
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see the Republican Party taking on the
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more moderate members of itself in in
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the primary elections because I think
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had Mike Castle s survived to the the
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general election he probably would have
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won the seat over o over the Democrat
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who eventually won and in Alaska we
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actually saw Lisa marowski still win the
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seat even though she got beat in her
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primary so how much influence are these
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Republican primary voters who tend to be
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much more conservative than Republicans
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overall are going to have in the future
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of the Republican party and will will
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uh having a a presidential election
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bring more moderate Republican voters
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out to maybe weaken this this effect so
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like we saw in Pennsylvania in in in
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2004 I believe or could have been 2002
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when Pat Tumi who now is our who now is
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our Senator tried to take on ARL Spectre
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from the from the right and he he didn't
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win um and and that may have been
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because they mobilized enough moderate
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Republicans Republicans to come vote in
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the in the
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primary yeah I expect to see a lot of
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gridlock coming up in this in this next
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two-year cycle I think the Republicans
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see this uh particularly with respect to
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healthcare and maybe tax policy as a way
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of really setting themselves up for the
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2012 election so I think one you will
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see Congress or the house
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specifically we have we have Democratic
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congressmen like Char Charlie Wrangle
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who have a fair have some ethical issues
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in the past Congress Congress or the
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house didn't take up investigations I
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think you'll definitely see the
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Republicans now in the house have have
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committees to
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investigate what they see as as um
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corrupt corrupt Democrats which which
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you didn't see because they didn't have
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control of of the floor before I think
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you'll see a lot of bills passed out of
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the house that they think have no chance
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of ever becoming law but they'll just be
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position taking votes where they want to
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say you know we don't like health care
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and this is even know this has never has
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a chance of actually becoming law this
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is going to be our way of showing our
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constituents we don't want uh health
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care and and the one thing you I think
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you might also see is uh the house has
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the ability to to control the
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Appropriations process so to the extent
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they do want to try to uh cut back on
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the healthc care law uh I think you'll
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see uh them try to use the
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Appropriations processes the ways they
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can do this because this is where they
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have some agenda setting power and may
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be able to to do that I also think
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outside the Congress you're going to see
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a lot of of gridlock at the state level
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where you're going to see for example
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States going to the if you have a
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Republican state attorney general or a
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Republican state Governor you may start
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uh trying to sue the federal government
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saying that you don't want to uh have to
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be held up to certain parts of of the
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healthc Care law you saw a similar thing
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done before with the Democrats With No
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Child Left Behind and so I think you'll
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see a lot of gridlock not only at the
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federal level but you'll see a lot of
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contentious uh
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partisan uh things coming out of the
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States that're they're directed towards
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the federal government all with a eye on
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trying to get the Republicans back in in
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office in 20
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2012 for
