00:00:00
Sultan of science what's going on are
00:00:01
you still riding high after you're a big
00:00:03
NASA Zoom interview your space station
00:00:05
Zoom interview that was really fun shout
00:00:08
out to Woody hoberg from the
00:00:09
International Space Station astronaut
00:00:11
Cal alumni Woody
00:00:14
listens to the pod
00:00:16
on the ISS while he works at the
00:00:18
astronauts workout he said two hours and
00:00:20
15 minutes every day to you know
00:00:22
obviously your body can actually got to
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work out a lot he's like when he's
00:00:24
working out he listens to old episodes
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of the all-in Pod a buddy of his put him
00:00:28
onto it he's become a big fan right on
00:00:30
shout out to Woody yeah I got a DM from
00:00:32
NASA astronauts I thought it was like
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some sort of scam or something I clicked
00:00:37
on it because I follow NASA astronauts
00:00:38
they DM me and I'm like obviously this
00:00:40
astronaut wants to chat that's so crazy
00:00:43
I looked the guy up seems legit he's
00:00:45
following me on Twitter so we did a zoom
00:00:47
call
00:00:48
yesterday and I put it on Twitter the
00:00:51
call I did with him is really fun
00:00:52
honestly like a thrill for me
00:00:55
an amazing individual this guy got his
00:00:58
PhD at Cal in computer science
00:01:01
did a thesis on convex optimization and
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applied to aerospace engineering became
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a professor at MIT for three years and
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applied to the astronaut program and got
00:01:09
in fast forward
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2023 in March he is the pilot of the
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crew 6 Mission the SpaceX crew 6 mission
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to the ISS and he's been on the ISS
00:01:20
since March and he's coming back in a
00:01:22
couple of days an incredible individual
00:01:23
Amazing Story it was super fun to chat
00:01:26
with him I don't think I've ever seen
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you smile or be more excited about
00:01:30
anything you look absolutely ecstatic oh
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it was amazing did he have any comments
00:01:36
on Uranus
00:01:38
any thoughts on Uranus or no
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we didn't get there you didn't get to
00:01:42
Uranus Cal you blew that let's try that
00:01:44
again
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let me take a shot at this Freeburg so
00:01:48
did he talk about going to the Moon yeah
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he's actually on the Artemis Mission and
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what about Uranus
00:02:01
in 20 minutes did he go for Uranus hey
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hell
00:02:05
I hear that we're trying to actually
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land on the South Side of the Moon the
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Dark Side of the Moon Yeah so he's
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actually honestly would he have an
00:02:14
opinion on the dark side of the moon or
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I don't know the Dark Side of Uranus
00:02:22
yeah
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three for three four three four three
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we'll let your winner slide
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[Music]
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we open source it to the fans and
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they've just gone crazy
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[Music]
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I just want to explain somebody was like
00:02:46
why are you bullying Jake out why are
00:02:48
you bullying Freeburg tomorrow's
00:02:50
bullying this person he loves the
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attention our love language is breaking
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chops that's it we'd like to laugh and
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take the piss out because everybody
00:02:57
takes themselves too seriously and then
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what's going on with the tequila are you
00:03:01
guys serious about this because now I'm
00:03:02
getting don't talk about that right now
00:03:03
I'm getting 50 emails a day with people
00:03:06
all right we'll talk about it I did run
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a poll asking people if they were trying
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all in tequila and the poll it nearly
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won okay and then I ran a poll asking
00:03:16
what the most they'd ever spent on a
00:03:18
bottle was if you price it around 200
00:03:20
bucks you can you can really maximize
00:03:23
demand I think the demand maximizing
00:03:24
function is probably around uh 180 190
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dollars you do not need a majority of
00:03:30
people to want to buy your tequila you
00:03:31
just need enough that are willing to pay
00:03:32
the right price
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no I agree I was just trying to see how
00:03:36
much interest there'd be out there and
00:03:38
in this poll I think it was 41 said they
00:03:42
would try it 40 said they wouldn't and
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then the remainder was just kind of you
00:03:46
know show me the answer I think if we
00:03:47
don't have advertising ever but we have
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a nice sipping tequila because you know
00:03:52
I don't drink a lot but I do like when
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sacs
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guys 32 000 votes so if you look at 18.8
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so it's 79 is 200 or less that's the the
00:04:04
sum of both of those two cohorts so like
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if you priced it at call it 189. you
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probably can get 15 percent
00:04:13
and so you know you could probably sell
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several hundred thousand bottles a year
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I mean that's like a pretty real
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business
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okay but I need something smooth and I
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like it a little sweet
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is that a problem can I just give you my
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opinion I think this
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the thing that people
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get wrong just as a as a consumer and I
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think like I'm a pretty
00:04:33
Discerning consumer
00:04:35
the thing that I don't like is that
00:04:37
people focus on all of this window
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dressing and they don't focus on the
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core
00:04:41
and the core is that for example in wine
00:04:46
there's seven or eight
00:04:49
rating systems
00:04:51
and over time if you buy enough wine and
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taste enough wine you can really figure
00:04:55
out who's good at what and there's just
00:04:58
nothing that replaces a highly rated
00:05:00
wine it's exceptional and that kind of
00:05:03
discernment is now moving itself into
00:05:05
tequila and so I would just encourage us
00:05:08
if we're going to make a bottle just
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make it an exceptionally good tasting
00:05:12
bottle and one of the things that I saw
00:05:14
in the comments was that people said oh
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you can't differentiate
00:05:17
but then I see some other articles like
00:05:19
comos which is the one that I tasted at
00:05:22
the one and only mandarina
00:05:24
that was the first hundred Point tequila
00:05:26
that had ever been given out and so
00:05:28
there are people that are starting to
00:05:30
raid it and create these rankings and if
00:05:32
we were going to put out a product I
00:05:33
would air on Extreme product quality
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versus price point I invested in a
00:05:39
tequila company I shared this with you
00:05:40
guys called 21 seeds it was started by
00:05:42
my friends Nicole
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cat and Sarika and they spent a lot of
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time in Mexico finding the right
00:05:51
producer and they put fresh fruit it's a
00:05:54
it's a female Niche tequila so the goal
00:05:56
is to create a tequila that will appeal
00:05:58
to the female
00:05:59
demographic and they spent quite a lot
00:06:01
of time trying to figure out how to
00:06:03
actually get the flavor of fresh fruit
00:06:04
without using artificial flavoring into
00:06:07
the tequila and so there was this big
00:06:08
investment in trying to get this thing
00:06:09
to work this thing worked it took off
00:06:11
and uh diagio bought the company but it
00:06:13
was because they spent so much time on
00:06:15
the quality of the product that I think
00:06:17
they were successful and that's everyone
00:06:18
else puts their name and label on a on a
00:06:21
bottle of tequila and says hey this is
00:06:23
my tequila but if you don't get the
00:06:24
quality rights chamoth is totally right
00:06:25
people don't buy a second time you got
00:06:27
to get it right if you look at what the
00:06:28
Rock did The Rock went in a different
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direction which is I think he has a very
00:06:32
accessible and affordable tequila which
00:06:34
I think makes sense as well it's just a
00:06:37
different strategy and that also works
00:06:38
for the rock because he has almost 400
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million followers and so he can really
00:06:43
play a volume game but I don't think
00:06:45
that that's what we should ever do that
00:06:47
we should stand for exceptional quality
00:06:48
exceptional quality and this speaks to
00:06:50
something else which is one of the
00:06:52
biggest points of feedback that I get so
00:06:53
for example I took three days that night
00:06:56
or three days we took a little bit of a
00:06:57
our own little honeymoon away from all
00:06:59
the kids and we went to Villa Destin
00:07:00
just to kind of hang on to Lake Como
00:07:02
because I was flying out of
00:07:04
Milan and ran into a few people there
00:07:08
and the consistent feedback that I get
00:07:10
from those folks is like they love
00:07:13
hearing about these different places
00:07:16
whether it's different brands different
00:07:19
kinds of wine all of these things
00:07:21
because all these folks are a little bit
00:07:23
left out in the cold now they don't have
00:07:26
like how to live life well and if you
00:07:28
work really hard and you're lucky enough
00:07:30
to then also have some amount of success
00:07:33
why should you feel ashamed about it why
00:07:35
shouldn't you be allowed to enjoy that
00:07:37
and actually like pamper yourself and
00:07:40
celebrate yourself and I say go for it
00:07:42
so if we can find high quality products
00:07:45
like this is the thing for example like
00:07:46
I think there's different ways of
00:07:48
expressing success
00:07:50
when I was poor I was poor in wallet
00:07:54
and I was also poor in mine
00:07:57
and then somewhere along the way I
00:07:59
actually became rich in wallet but I was
00:08:01
still poor in mind and so I would wear
00:08:03
these clothes that were gaudy and had
00:08:05
huge labels Maples Dior and Valencia
00:08:09
yeah
00:08:11
man the haircut looked like friedberg's
00:08:13
it was disgust it was gross and then I
00:08:15
learned how to be rich in wallet and
00:08:17
rich in mind which is then you go
00:08:19
totally brand off and you can actually
00:08:21
find things that are just like really
00:08:23
well tailored well made they can be
00:08:25
almost generational pieces of clothing
00:08:27
or whatever and I think that it's great
00:08:30
that you can find these things and tell
00:08:32
other people because you find that
00:08:34
there's a latent so many number of
00:08:35
people that want that so Ed Villa deste
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as an example that is probably the
00:08:39
Harvard of hospitality I've never been
00:08:41
to a hotel that is more on point
00:08:44
anywhere in the world than that one
00:08:46
place
00:08:47
incredible incredible ways in which one
00:08:50
more time Villa Destin Villa D
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apostrophe e-s-t-e on Lake I'll give you
00:08:56
one simple example Matt and I were like
00:08:57
talking about this one kind of olive oil
00:09:00
and the waiter at the other table heard
00:09:04
he went to the kitchen brought back and
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he said here I heard I just overheard I
00:09:08
apologize but and I thought this is
00:09:09
incredible you feel so pampered and
00:09:12
loved and taken care of the level of
00:09:14
service and quality there was incredible
00:09:16
and I think that there's so many
00:09:18
examples of this where if you can have
00:09:21
elements of that in your life
00:09:22
you should do it by the way there's a
00:09:25
very high chance that this is where I
00:09:26
use all of you guys for the all in
00:09:28
Summit in 2025. okay I'm still figuring
00:09:30
out all the details I'm picking 20 25.
00:09:33
my point is whether it's Laura Piana
00:09:34
which is in my opinion the top of the
00:09:37
top in terms of brand off really high
00:09:40
quality clothes look at that place the
00:09:42
point is like there's all these brands
00:09:44
that exist that take enormous amounts of
00:09:46
time to exemplify craftsmanship and care
00:09:49
and I think that it's appropriate for
00:09:51
people who can participate in those
00:09:53
experiences to be able to have them and
00:09:55
not feel ashamed and actually like enjoy
00:09:57
it and celebrate themselves and do it so
00:09:59
let's go high quality stuff not shitty
00:10:02
big label tacky crap okay Nvidia has
00:10:05
smashed their earnings massive interest
00:10:06
coming into this earnings report
00:10:08
obviously because we've been talking
00:10:09
about Nvidia they've had a massive
00:10:11
run-up everybody is trying to buy
00:10:13
capacity to run language models Etc
00:10:16
self-driving yada yada and it's not just
00:10:19
the Googles and Amazons of the world you
00:10:22
have startups trying to buy h100s a100s
00:10:26
and buy this infrastructure you also
00:10:27
have Sovereign wealth funds and
00:10:28
countries buying these in the Middle
00:10:30
East in Europe and you have traditional
00:10:32
cooperations buying them this is the
00:10:34
blowout of world blowouts in terms of
00:10:36
performance Q2 Revenue 13.5 billion up
00:10:40
101 year over year that's extraordinary
00:10:42
on that large of a number but up 88
00:10:44
percent quarter over quarter high growth
00:10:47
in stocks is 20 30 year over year so
00:10:49
this is yeah just very uncommon
00:10:51
obviously uh Q2 net income six billion
00:10:54
dollars up 843 percent year over year
00:10:57
Nvidia is now worth 1.2 trillion it's
00:10:59
closing in on Amazon 1.4 trillion and
00:11:02
Google at 1.7 trillion dollars in terms
00:11:04
of market cap and here's the kicker
00:11:06
they're printing up so much money and so
00:11:09
much profits rather that the Nvidia
00:11:10
board is approving a 25 billion dollar
00:11:13
share buyback that's a very large number
00:11:16
in terms of share BuyBacks that's six
00:11:18
times higher than what they were
00:11:19
currently allotted yeah I guess chamoth
00:11:22
when you see this kind of extraordinary
00:11:25
run up what is the ramification going to
00:11:28
be in terms of
00:11:29
for the industry competition and then
00:11:32
just trading this name is this peak
00:11:35
Nvidia or is the peak yet to come well I
00:11:37
think it's peak in one way but this is
00:11:39
less about a commentary on Nvidia
00:11:41
because they're clearly firing on all
00:11:43
cylinders but you know it's a pretty
00:11:44
well established rule in capitalism
00:11:46
which is when the market observes that
00:11:49
there's a company
00:11:50
printing enormous revenues and profits
00:11:53
they want to compete with them naturally
00:11:54
to get their share of those revenues and
00:11:56
profits and that typically happens in
00:11:58
all markets then the result of that are
00:12:01
just decaying margins in the in the
00:12:02
absence of a monopoly this is what you
00:12:04
should expect and so because in this
00:12:06
market there's nothing really
00:12:07
monopolistic about what they do what
00:12:09
they do is exceptional and good but
00:12:10
there are other ways and other systems
00:12:13
and other companies that are developing
00:12:15
chipsets and capabilities here to
00:12:17
compete with Nvidia so it probably just
00:12:20
motivates them even more and accelerates
00:12:22
the path where you see competition I
00:12:24
tweeted this out yesterday but one of
00:12:26
the most interesting things that could
00:12:27
happen is somebody like Tesla decides to
00:12:29
either open source their chip or
00:12:31
actually starts to sell their platform
00:12:32
because if FSD gets to a reasonable
00:12:34
level of scale that entire platform
00:12:36
system is a learning and inference
00:12:38
system for the physical world and I
00:12:40
think that has tremendous applications
00:12:42
you have something called risk V which
00:12:44
is an open architecture spec to
00:12:46
essentially compete and create different
00:12:48
versions of different ships that has
00:12:50
implications more I think to arm you
00:12:52
have companies like Google that you know
00:12:53
frankly spun their own silicon a long
00:12:55
time ago TPU you have Amazon now talking
00:12:57
about doing the same thing Microsoft has
00:12:59
invested a lot of money in fpga
00:13:01
technology so it's just yet another
00:13:04
accelerant in this trend to create many
00:13:08
forms of AI enabled silicon
00:13:12
and so I think that that sort of it
00:13:14
pulls that reality forward and let's
00:13:16
think we're gonna have to figure out
00:13:17
when the market prices that in because I
00:13:20
think that that probably decays the
00:13:23
Nvidia margin and upside over time again
00:13:25
that is not a commentary on that that's
00:13:27
just a market reality yeah margins get
00:13:29
competed away for folks who don't know
00:13:31
Tesla is making something called Dojo
00:13:33
it's their own super computer here's a
00:13:35
picture of it they showed that at Tesla
00:13:37
AI Day last year and you have arms open
00:13:40
source competitor is the risk five chip
00:13:43
you're talking about it's an open source
00:13:45
architecture for doing large jobs and so
00:13:48
I guess my question to you Friedberg is
00:13:50
if you look at all this capacity coming
00:13:52
online do you think we're going to be in
00:13:54
a situation where the amount of capacity
00:13:57
compute being put online is going to
00:13:59
outstrip the need for that compute
00:14:01
because software is getting so much
00:14:03
better and then maybe you know people
00:14:05
are running hugging face jobs and
00:14:07
various LMS on the new silicon from
00:14:10
Apple and they're running it on their
00:14:12
m2s and so do we need this much capacity
00:14:15
are there enough interesting jobs in the
00:14:17
world to for all this capacity and then
00:14:19
might that also be a headwind against
00:14:21
Nvidia when people say you know what I
00:14:23
got enough I got enough capacity here I
00:14:25
think the rational way to think about
00:14:28
this is to try and calculate the
00:14:30
efficient Frontier on compute use
00:14:33
so
00:14:34
the more
00:14:35
compute you use the more it costs you
00:14:39
the question then is if you double the
00:14:42
amount of compute you're using for a
00:14:43
particular application
00:14:45
do you get twice the return on the
00:14:47
investment
00:14:48
if you triple it does your Roi on a
00:14:52
percentage basis you know go up or go
00:14:54
down so at some point you reach an
00:14:56
efficient Frontier which is you start to
00:14:58
see a declining or negative rate of
00:15:01
return on the investment in the compute
00:15:03
that you're using for a particular
00:15:04
application and this is certainly going
00:15:06
to be application and Market specific
00:15:08
it's going to be largely driven by the
00:15:10
data that is available in that market to
00:15:12
do training to do tuning the Market's
00:15:14
appetite to spend money for that
00:15:16
particular set of applications that
00:15:18
emerges from that compute that's being
00:15:20
used and so we don't know today where
00:15:24
the efficient Frontier is across each of
00:15:27
these different markets and sets of
00:15:28
applications and the market is finding
00:15:30
that out in the process of finding that
00:15:33
out everyone is spending a [ __ ] ton of
00:15:35
money on compute and they are trying to
00:15:37
get as many server racks as they can
00:15:39
they're trying to get as many chipsets
00:15:41
as they can they're trying to get
00:15:43
as much server time as they can and
00:15:46
everyone's got this idea that the more
00:15:47
compute I can throw at a problem
00:15:50
the return is going to scale linearly
00:15:52
and it turns out that like with most
00:15:54
most things the answer is likely not so
00:15:57
we're at this point right now and I
00:16:00
would argue a bit of a cycle that the
00:16:03
there looks to be a bubble and what I
00:16:05
mean by that is that there's a lot of
00:16:07
inefficient spending going on as the
00:16:09
efficient Frontiers are discovered
00:16:11
across all these different application
00:16:12
sets and so my intuition without a lot
00:16:16
of actual data to back this up is that
00:16:19
just anecdotally on what I'm hearing
00:16:21
people doing in the market what
00:16:22
companies are doing what startups are
00:16:23
doing Etc everyone is throwing
00:16:25
everything they can at compute and
00:16:28
they're going to realize that they're
00:16:28
going to need to rationalize those
00:16:29
expenses at some time at some point so I
00:16:32
would I would Envision Nvidia is
00:16:34
probably writing writing a little bit of
00:16:35
a discovery of the efficient Frontier
00:16:37
wave right now
00:16:39
and that this probably is not
00:16:40
necessarily steady state sax we
00:16:43
experienced this before as you remember
00:16:45
from the.com era there was a massive
00:16:48
investment very similar to this in fiber
00:16:51
and the overspending of building the
00:16:53
fiber infrastructure so everybody could
00:16:55
get broadband and they could stream
00:16:57
movies Etc happened in that 97 to 2002
00:17:01
time period a lot of those companies
00:17:03
went out of business a lot of that fiber
00:17:04
never got used people were working on
00:17:07
compression algorithms while they were
00:17:08
building our massive fiber and a lot of
00:17:10
that fiber got sold I think Google
00:17:11
bought up a lot of it other people
00:17:12
bought it up
00:17:14
and it was just a massive overspend so
00:17:16
is this like the dark fiber of this era
00:17:19
where we're just going to build so much
00:17:20
capacity that there's just going to be
00:17:23
not enough jobs to run on it in your
00:17:25
mind well I think it's a little
00:17:26
different than fiber in the sense that
00:17:27
every year there's gonna be a new
00:17:29
generation of chips and so
00:17:32
these Cloud providers who are providing
00:17:35
GPU compute they're going to want to
00:17:37
keep upgrading the chips to be able to
00:17:39
address the next generation of
00:17:40
applications so I don't think it's quite
00:17:42
as static as fiber where you kind of
00:17:44
build it once and you're right that
00:17:46
there was kind of a lot of capacity it
00:17:48
was created eventually though the
00:17:50
internet usage grew into that capacity
00:17:52
but I think this is a little different
00:17:54
because again you're going to need to
00:17:55
upgrade the chips every year or two I
00:17:56
think Friedberg is right that this is
00:17:59
clearly a spike in demand that may not
00:18:02
be sustainable I mean recall what
00:18:04
happened here is that chat GPT launched
00:18:06
on November 30th last year and really
00:18:09
called everyone by surprise it kind of
00:18:11
took the World by storm and over the
00:18:13
next few months you had hundreds of
00:18:14
millions of users discover AI I think it
00:18:17
surprised even the open AI team I think
00:18:19
when they launched chat GPT they thought
00:18:21
it'd be more of a proof of concept but
00:18:23
it ended up being a lot more than that
00:18:25
and so everyone has scrambled all of a
00:18:27
sudden in the last nine months or so to
00:18:31
develop their own AI strategy and so
00:18:34
again it was this giant platform shift
00:18:36
that happened overnight so there is a
00:18:39
tremendous GPU shortage right now and
00:18:42
that's also what's leading to these
00:18:44
almost software like profit margins by
00:18:47
Nvidia because when everyone's clamoring
00:18:50
to get
00:18:51
a limited supply of these chips and
00:18:53
there just aren't enough Nvidia can
00:18:55
almost charge whatever they want and so
00:18:56
I think even more than the demand the
00:18:59
profit margins might not be sustainable
00:19:02
but I think the reality is we just don't
00:19:04
know what the steady state of demand in
00:19:06
this market is going to be
00:19:08
I think we can say that it can't
00:19:10
continue at these growth rates but
00:19:13
probably there will be some steady state
00:19:15
of demand that's you know probably is at
00:19:17
least where we are today
00:19:19
yeah I don't think it's perfectly
00:19:20
analogous chamoth but just to to bring
00:19:23
up some historical context check out
00:19:25
this article I was reading the other day
00:19:26
the dimensions of the collapse of the
00:19:28
Telecommunications industry this is
00:19:29
August 20 2002 and it says um the
00:19:33
dimension of the collapse in the
00:19:34
Telecommunications industry during the
00:19:36
past two years has have been staggering
00:19:37
half a million people have lost our jobs
00:19:39
in that time the Dow Jones communication
00:19:40
technology index has dropped 86 percent
00:19:42
the wireless communication index 89
00:19:44
percent
00:19:45
these are declines in value-worthy of
00:19:47
comparison to the great crash of 1929
00:19:48
out of the seven trillion decline in the
00:19:51
stock market since its peak about 2
00:19:52
trillion have disappeared in the
00:19:54
capitalization of telecom companies 23
00:19:56
telecom companies have gone bankrupt in
00:19:58
a way of capped off by the July 21st
00:20:00
collapse of Worldcom the single largest
00:20:02
bankruptcy in American history so just a
00:20:04
little history there of this it's not
00:20:06
perfectly analogous
00:20:07
obviously with Nvidia is not going
00:20:09
bankrupt or anything like that but this
00:20:11
over capacity issue is definitely going
00:20:12
to be something but you had mentioned
00:20:15
that in one of your Tweet storms in the
00:20:17
past couple of weeks or these long form
00:20:18
that you're doing on X previously known
00:20:21
as Twitter
00:20:22
you mentioned that what are the jobs
00:20:24
that could be pushed to this compute and
00:20:27
and what if one of them works I think
00:20:28
you were doing a speaking that somebody
00:20:30
tweeted out a little clip of so let's
00:20:33
unpack that what do you think are some
00:20:34
jobs that people might push here that we
00:20:36
don't anticipate that could solve
00:20:38
something miraculous in the world well
00:20:40
yeah the framing is really like if you
00:20:43
if you go back to like the the Gold Rush
00:20:45
of the 1800s in San Francisco the people
00:20:48
that made the money were the platform
00:20:49
enablers right they were the ones that
00:20:50
sold the picks the shovels the pans and
00:20:52
the jeans
00:20:54
right and that's where that's where Levi
00:20:55
Strauss was born the the equivalent
00:20:57
analogy the equivalence in that analogy
00:21:00
today is NVIDIA because they are the the
00:21:03
dominant pick and shovel provider so the
00:21:06
question is well what are we going to
00:21:08
use these picks and shovels to create
00:21:10
are we going to find gold and I think
00:21:11
the question is unclear and where will
00:21:14
that gold be found will it be found
00:21:15
inside of a big tech company or will it
00:21:17
be found inside of a startup if you look
00:21:19
inside of where these resources are
00:21:21
being used inside of big Tech it is to
00:21:24
completely Scorch the Earth on the
00:21:27
economic value of large models and I
00:21:30
think that that's very very good for all
00:21:32
of the startups that come after it so
00:21:34
what do I mean by this you know we were
00:21:36
all so wrapped around the axle around
00:21:39
chat GPT and then GPT in general and now
00:21:43
you know if you look at the quality of
00:21:45
llama llama 2
00:21:47
basically these big companies have
00:21:49
decided no we're just going to make all
00:21:52
these models extremely good extremely
00:21:54
useful and very very free and so a lot
00:21:57
of the resources are going there to
00:21:59
subsidize economically subsidized and by
00:22:02
implication economically destroy the
00:22:04
value of that category that's going to
00:22:07
be good for startups
00:22:09
and so the question is what will you
00:22:11
then build on top of these quasi-free
00:22:15
almost free tools
00:22:17
and so one area that I have been looking
00:22:19
at for a while is in computational
00:22:20
biology I think that that clip that
00:22:22
you're talking about was just me talking
00:22:23
with Lauren's Eve
00:22:25
just around the ability to compute large
00:22:29
complex spaces
00:22:31
with very sparse information it's not
00:22:33
it's a very difficult task today but
00:22:35
tomorrow in an AI model that you can
00:22:37
train you can literally characterize
00:22:39
every single molecular permutation you
00:22:41
could imagine
00:22:42
you combine it with something like Alpha
00:22:44
fold and you can understand protein
00:22:45
folding and all of a sudden you can
00:22:46
sequentially start to put tools together
00:22:48
that could theoretically give you much
00:22:50
higher probability guessing
00:22:53
for specific compounds that could
00:22:56
actually cure disease a different
00:22:58
version of that is a company that myself
00:23:00
and a few other people started I tweeted
00:23:03
that out which is more in the material
00:23:04
science space and we've had some pretty
00:23:06
important breakthroughs there which is
00:23:08
really about trying to invent Next
00:23:10
Generation battery materials
00:23:12
and we have one candidate that could be
00:23:15
pretty revolutionary if it turns out to
00:23:17
work we don't know yet
00:23:18
some positive signs so there are there
00:23:21
are some of these green shoots so my
00:23:23
perspective is that a lot of the money
00:23:25
that Nvidia makes today is going to be
00:23:27
money well spent because it'll be going
00:23:29
to the big guys
00:23:30
big Tech Plus Tesla they are then going
00:23:33
to create some really foundational
00:23:36
platform Technologies with it whether
00:23:39
it's Dojo whether it's FSD whether it's
00:23:42
the full platform inside of Tesla that
00:23:44
is the cameras plus the inference plus
00:23:46
the training for all forms of physical
00:23:48
world interaction whether it's llama two
00:23:50
and all of that stuff will be given away
00:23:52
essentially I think open source
00:23:55
quasi-free to the ecosystem
00:23:57
over the next few years and I think
00:23:59
that'll be a really important moment
00:24:02
which will create hundreds of new
00:24:04
companies doing really clever cool
00:24:07
things so we haven't yet seen the big
00:24:09
breakout company yet and so I think that
00:24:12
right now most of this capex is going to
00:24:13
the big guys but the dividends of all
00:24:17
the work that these big guys are doing
00:24:19
will be
00:24:21
seen over the next few years in the
00:24:23
startups that get started in the next
00:24:24
four or five years I love the California
00:24:26
analogy ultimately what all that
00:24:28
prospecting for gold did was create the
00:24:30
state of California putting aside the
00:24:32
Levi's and the genes and uh if you know
00:24:35
anything about California's GDP
00:24:38
it would be yeah I think these
00:24:41
statistics are always talked about fifth
00:24:42
tenth eighth largest uh it has a bigger
00:24:45
GDP California than some of the largest
00:24:47
countries in the world so this is a 2015
00:24:50
chart it's hard to find the updated
00:24:52
information on this but ultimately that
00:24:54
was the product of the Gold Rush is this
00:24:55
incredible State any other thoughts on
00:24:57
Nvidia before we move on to arm I think
00:24:59
open AI had a potentially significant
00:25:02
product announcement that's related to
00:25:04
this so they just launched fine tuning
00:25:08
for
00:25:09
chat GPT actually version 3.5 turbo it
00:25:13
says here fine tuning lets you train the
00:25:14
model on your company's data and run
00:25:15
that scale early tests have shown that
00:25:18
fine-tuned GPT 3.5 can matric cgbt4 on
00:25:21
narrow tasks so you can do things like
00:25:25
fine-tune the formatting of the output
00:25:28
you can fine tune the tone fine tuning
00:25:31
also allows business to make the model
00:25:33
follow instructions better
00:25:35
so I think the point of this is that
00:25:38
we're still at such an early stage of
00:25:40
this and there are so many applications
00:25:42
that are going to be developed and
00:25:44
they're making the models more and more
00:25:45
useful
00:25:46
so Jason to your analogy about fiber
00:25:49
what happened with fiber is there was a
00:25:52
big build out of over capacity but then
00:25:54
the number of applications kept growing
00:25:56
until that capacity got used and I think
00:25:59
we're probably going to see something
00:26:00
like that here where there is a big
00:26:01
build out going on of capacity and
00:26:04
capabilities and that's going to lead to
00:26:06
the next generation of applications and
00:26:08
and I just think we don't know yet what
00:26:11
the steady state of either demand or
00:26:13
supply for these chips is going to be
00:26:14
obviously the market got taken by
00:26:17
surprise over the last year so you've
00:26:19
seen again this huge spike in demand the
00:26:22
supply cannot react fast enough that's
00:26:24
led to gigantic profits for NVIDIA but
00:26:27
it's hard to know exactly again what is
00:26:29
the steady state going to be is it going
00:26:30
to be like this or is this a one-time
00:26:31
Spike and we also don't know what the
00:26:34
supply will be once the manufacturers
00:26:36
all adjust because now they know that
00:26:38
the demand is there and to your point
00:26:39
like the the big use cases are pushing
00:26:42
us well past chips to to really be more
00:26:45
like entire systems and these racks and
00:26:48
so if you look like at Grace Hopper
00:26:50
which is their next-gen design it's like
00:26:52
a bunch of chiplets plus memory be on a
00:26:55
huge board
00:26:56
it's not a chip you're talking about
00:26:58
system level manufacturing at this point
00:27:00
and that will also create different
00:27:02
kinds of use cases because for example
00:27:05
today right now when you look at simple
00:27:06
things like probabilistic tasks I think
00:27:08
chat GPT and all these gpts are are
00:27:10
pretty marvelous and pretty
00:27:12
inspirational but deterministic tasks
00:27:14
they're [ __ ] like you know they
00:27:16
hallucinate on simple things like
00:27:17
multiplication why because you infer
00:27:19
multiplication and you try to calculate
00:27:21
it probabilistically and you get these
00:27:23
simple math functions wrong and so these
00:27:25
are all these things where you the
00:27:27
software has to become more and more
00:27:28
sophisticated and actually be able to
00:27:30
path and tunnel code into different ways
00:27:33
of getting it executed and then bringing
00:27:34
it back and stitching it together all of
00:27:36
these things don't exist those are very
00:27:39
rudimentary things that were solved in
00:27:40
V1 of compute so I think that to your
00:27:43
point David like we don't know where
00:27:45
this goes
00:27:46
we're probably going to go to a place
00:27:48
that it's not just about chips but it's
00:27:50
about systems
00:27:51
but that's going to create this weird
00:27:55
balkanization almost and I think that's
00:27:57
where a lot of the profit margins will
00:27:59
get eroded away because that will make
00:28:01
it
00:28:02
a much more competitive industry and
00:28:05
there just isn't a lot of margin to
00:28:07
capture when you actually Stitch all
00:28:08
these things together yeah and if you
00:28:11
think about what were the massive wins
00:28:13
for all that extra fiber it was really
00:28:15
two companies
00:28:17
the first was YouTube which stopped
00:28:19
charging people for transport on their
00:28:21
videos before that if you had a video go
00:28:22
viral your your server got shut down
00:28:25
because you you hit your five thousand
00:28:27
dollar a month limit or whatever you had
00:28:28
set with your ISP and then Netflix of
00:28:31
course right Netflix couldn't exist and
00:28:32
all that dark fiber built that so we'll
00:28:34
see with all this extra GPU what could
00:28:36
happen and to your point about the the
00:28:38
breakthroughs there you can now go into
00:28:41
your
00:28:43
chat GPT and you could put in custom
00:28:45
instructions and so it asks you what
00:28:47
would you like chat CPT to know about
00:28:49
you and provide better responses and you
00:28:52
know for example I told it I'm a venture
00:28:54
capitalist I live in the Bay Area I'm
00:28:56
looking for concise business information
00:28:59
and then it says well how do you like
00:29:01
how would you like chat GPT to respond
00:29:03
and I said I'd like to see data in a
00:29:05
table I like to see data in those tables
00:29:07
with hyperlinks I like citations when
00:29:09
possible yeah just to be clear what
00:29:10
you're describing with custom
00:29:11
instructions that was a feature I think
00:29:13
they launched like a month or two ago a
00:29:14
couple weeks ago what that is doing is
00:29:16
uh prompt engineering basically it's
00:29:18
pre-saving like all that Preamble that
00:29:21
you would have to put in every single
00:29:22
one of your prompts whereas this fine
00:29:25
tuning as I understand it is more about
00:29:27
fine-tuning the model to your team to
00:29:29
improve the model for a certain kind of
00:29:31
need or certain kind of output right so
00:29:32
the example there would be if you had
00:29:34
your email box or you had your Google
00:29:36
Docs or you had a repository of all your
00:29:38
slack messages or something your company
00:29:40
had your company handbooks or you know
00:29:42
all of uh chamat's letters he writes
00:29:44
every year you could have that uploaded
00:29:46
to chat GPS it's potentially very
00:29:48
powerful I think for Enterprises I think
00:29:51
the big Enterprise use case the most
00:29:53
obvious one is that every Enterprise
00:29:54
wants its own internal chatbot it wants
00:29:57
its own internal chat GPT 8 where the
00:30:00
employees can ask questions and the AI
00:30:04
has access to all the company's
00:30:05
information and it understands
00:30:06
permissions and privacy so it only
00:30:08
reveals information to people who have
00:30:10
the right to see it that's kind of a
00:30:12
tall order but I think that's what the
00:30:13
market wants yeah they want the chat GPT
00:30:16
for the company intranet yes and so I
00:30:18
think racing to provide that and there
00:30:21
was a interesting tweet by Nathan Ben H
00:30:24
anyway he just said bye bye a bunch of
00:30:25
startups because I guess a lot of stars
00:30:27
were working on this fine-tuning problem
00:30:28
that may be too glib
00:30:30
because I think there's just a lot of
00:30:32
Enterprises who do not want to share all
00:30:34
their corporate information with open AI
00:30:36
of course what if it's HR information
00:30:38
then you have people asking like who are
00:30:40
the most overpaid people in this company
00:30:41
you know what if it's like the badge
00:30:43
information and how many hours people
00:30:44
are working or that's more about
00:30:45
permissions Jason but even if open AI
00:30:47
can nail the permissions problem I think
00:30:49
this is a lot of Enterprises who will
00:30:51
not want to trust their data to open an
00:30:53
AI yeah they're gonna be afraid about
00:30:54
where it goes this is why I think open
00:30:56
source is taking off in a big way is
00:30:58
that I think big Enterprises would much
00:31:00
rather roll their own models and control
00:31:02
it and do the fine tuning and that's why
00:31:04
they're using tools like Mosaic and
00:31:06
hugging faces they want to have control
00:31:08
over it themselves that's an excellent
00:31:10
point and that has implications as well
00:31:11
into the hardware which is also probably
00:31:13
a good jumping off point for arm because
00:31:15
this that what you said is exactly must
00:31:17
happen for the Integrity of an
00:31:19
organization to want to use these things
00:31:21
and if that happens then it just further
00:31:25
further accelerates I think
00:31:27
how the hardware will get abstracted and
00:31:29
frankly quasi-open sourced as well all
00:31:31
right let's talk Facebook did a great
00:31:33
job of this because like when Facebook
00:31:34
was building data centers
00:31:36
they had to invent tremendous
00:31:38
capabilities that didn't exist before
00:31:40
and the market was really fragmented it
00:31:43
was very expensive and what they did was
00:31:45
they basically created these reference
00:31:46
designs for servers and blades in the
00:31:48
whole nine yards and open source the
00:31:50
whole thing and it just you know in in
00:31:52
essence destroyed a market but it
00:31:55
created a hyper efficient market that
00:31:57
then everybody could use and I think the
00:31:59
question is that if it's happening at
00:32:02
the software layer already now just like
00:32:04
it did in web 2 software
00:32:07
and then we see certain elements of web
00:32:09
2 Hardware been open sourced
00:32:11
I think it makes pretty logical sense
00:32:13
that you can expect the same things to
00:32:15
happen in the AI world
00:32:16
the AI models and the AI platforms and
00:32:19
the all of that stuff will first get
00:32:20
open source because it's a data
00:32:22
Integrity security issue
00:32:24
and then the hardware will get open
00:32:26
source as well because you just want
00:32:27
simple reference designs you can use and
00:32:29
plug and play
00:32:30
yeah if you want to look at that it's
00:32:32
called the open compute project
00:32:34
opencompute.org
00:32:35
just a way to use open source to grind
00:32:38
down the prices take out the margin I
00:32:40
guess is what you're saying
00:32:42
to make all these data centers uh scale
00:32:45
right well so yeah so one related story
00:32:48
here is this this happened in the last
00:32:50
few weeks there's a company called core
00:32:52
weave
00:32:53
which provides Cloud infrastructure for
00:32:55
AI training it's secured a 2.3 billion
00:32:58
dollar investment in the form of a loan
00:33:00
what court weave is trying to do it's
00:33:01
kind of like uh AWS but for gpus
00:33:05
so essentially instead of having to buy
00:33:08
your own gpus
00:33:09
in order to you know set up your own
00:33:11
infrastructure you just basically rent
00:33:15
compute from these guys but this is this
00:33:17
is exactly why like none of these none
00:33:19
of these companies will really be
00:33:20
allowed to exist in this exact way four
00:33:22
or five years from now because
00:33:23
ultimately what people want is massive
00:33:25
throughput right tokens per second give
00:33:27
me as many tokens per second as possible
00:33:29
and they don't particularly care again
00:33:32
if you understand the model do they
00:33:34
really care what the underlying
00:33:35
substrate Hardware should be it doesn't
00:33:37
seem like they should they should care
00:33:39
what is the throughput what do I pay for
00:33:41
it and by the way that is exactly what
00:33:43
happened when AWS really start to scale
00:33:45
because if you guys remember when we
00:33:46
started to First abstract code into AWS
00:33:48
why do we care about how much did an ec2
00:33:51
instance cost how much did an S3 bucket
00:33:52
cost and that's all we cared about
00:33:54
because that abstraction allowed us to
00:33:57
not care about the underlying Hardware
00:33:58
who was the vendor what was the con
00:34:01
configuration it didn't matter and so in
00:34:04
an interesting way we're going to go
00:34:05
through that same Evolution here because
00:34:06
it's just economically rational that
00:34:08
that kind of Market exists you should
00:34:11
only care tokens per second I think all
00:34:13
right in other news oh by the way
00:34:15
there's uh something called common crawl
00:34:17
which is another interesting open source
00:34:19
project that is getting a lot more
00:34:21
attention today because they have
00:34:23
crawled the web and you can use this
00:34:24
common crawl they release it monthly and
00:34:26
that's what a lot of people are training
00:34:28
their data on now they don't have
00:34:30
permission from all those people to do
00:34:32
training data but they do have the
00:34:35
ability for you to download an open
00:34:36
crawl essentially what Google has and
00:34:39
you have a an open source version of it
00:34:41
so Carmen crawl was started and funded
00:34:44
by Gil elbaz yeah he's a he's a friend
00:34:47
Gill sold his company applied semantics
00:34:50
to Google back in 0203 and a big part of
00:34:55
his effort
00:34:56
with common crawl is to that's happening
00:35:00
is it AdSense
00:35:02
[Music]
00:35:03
AdSense so basically applied semantics
00:35:06
could read a web page and then create
00:35:09
the keywords associated with the content
00:35:11
on that web page and then those keywords
00:35:13
would trigger AdWords ads on the on the
00:35:14
web page so they called it AdSense so
00:35:16
AdSense started and the whole publisher
00:35:18
Network at Google was born from the
00:35:20
applied semantics acquisition and Gill
00:35:22
was obviously a pretty significant
00:35:24
shareholder of Google
00:35:26
he's even in the S1 as one of the major
00:35:28
shareholders he's a really great human
00:35:30
being and his intention with this common
00:35:32
crawl project was you know to make the
00:35:35
crawling of the web the index
00:35:37
and the caching available for all these
00:35:40
different projects that might exist and
00:35:41
he didn't at the time anticipate the uh
00:35:44
the open AI
00:35:46
application becoming you know the big
00:35:48
breakthrough but when gpt3 was published
00:35:50
I think they said that 80 plus percent
00:35:53
of the waiting
00:35:54
came from the content out of common
00:35:57
crawl and so it's really been this uh
00:35:59
this Amazing Project completely
00:36:00
non-profit
00:36:01
all funded mostly funded by Gill
00:36:04
and um has really unlocked this
00:36:06
opportunity for a lot of the open source
00:36:08
alternatives
00:36:09
to now try and provide solutions that
00:36:12
can exist in coexist with open Ai and
00:36:14
others in the commercial options in the
00:36:16
world a small piece of trivia
00:36:18
we were one of the first AdSense
00:36:20
Publishers and so
00:36:22
here's a story from October of 2005
00:36:24
weblogs Inc with student Gadget the the
00:36:26
blogging company I started hit three
00:36:28
thousand dollars a day in AdSense thanks
00:36:30
to Gail and the team over there and we
00:36:32
wound up selling it that's awesome and
00:36:34
this is the story about it and and we
00:36:36
were awesome in the S1 they had two
00:36:38
examples of Publishers one was New York
00:36:40
Times
00:36:41
and then one was weblogs Inc they wanted
00:36:43
to show like an upstart and this one and
00:36:45
so a lot of history here and it's fun to
00:36:47
go back uh down to and we were we were
00:36:49
in the S1 for by the way Gil is going to
00:36:51
be at the summit so uh oh go give me a
00:36:54
hug you take a picture Charles Barkley
00:36:56
had this great story which is like he
00:36:59
is like over the moon about being a
00:37:01
grandfather I saw this on 60 Minutes and
00:37:03
he said it's because I want my
00:37:06
grandchild grandson to Google me and
00:37:09
notice that I did some things and then
00:37:10
we can talk about it yeah and Jacob I
00:37:13
had this thought for you like that's
00:37:15
like that's a cool piece of Internet
00:37:18
history that you're a part of yeah
00:37:19
hopefully you're you're your grandkids
00:37:21
will Google that and you can tell them
00:37:22
that's right that's pretty cool or you
00:37:24
know 1800 episodes of this weekend
00:37:26
startups I just tweeted a an episode
00:37:29
with Gary tan from 2009 that I recorded
00:37:32
at sequoia's office and I just put it on
00:37:35
the uh this week in startups Twitter
00:37:36
account it's pretty funny to have baby
00:37:37
face Gary tan from posterous on there
00:37:39
all right arm officially filed it's F1
00:37:41
it's kind of like an S1 for a foreign
00:37:43
company and they plan to go public next
00:37:46
month arms Revenue last quarter 675
00:37:48
million down two percent year over year
00:37:50
up seven percent quarter of a quarter
00:37:52
fiscal full year 2023 2.7 billion ish
00:37:56
down one percent year over year Farms
00:37:58
major business uh just so you know is uh
00:38:01
smartphones 99 of smartphones are built
00:38:04
with arms chip architecture embedded
00:38:06
systems they they have a medication
00:38:08
systems yeah we'll get into it the
00:38:09
problem is the market is totally moved
00:38:11
when SoftBank platform it was probably
00:38:13
like the last year where you know there
00:38:16
was so much focus on the hardware and
00:38:18
platform Technologies inside of mobile
00:38:21
and tablets and all that stuff but in
00:38:23
these last few years think of what's
00:38:24
happened we've had a massive shift to AI
00:38:27
right and so that's pushing a lot more
00:38:30
pressure on gpus and whatever comes
00:38:31
after that we have had a re-emergence of
00:38:35
the popularity of risk V which is an
00:38:37
open source competitor to arm we have
00:38:39
had Apple in Source a whole bunch of
00:38:42
their own architectural decisions in
00:38:43
Silicon design because they don't want
00:38:45
the dependency
00:38:46
philosophy yeah well also they also care
00:38:49
about different things like they care
00:38:50
about battery life so that's why you
00:38:52
know that's the focus of their chip
00:38:53
architecture and so all of this just
00:38:55
means that that market embedded systems
00:38:59
becomes more and more constrained and
00:39:01
commoditized over time which again as we
00:39:04
said in capitalism means that future
00:39:06
profits will be less than historical
00:39:08
profits and so I think this is a very
00:39:11
tough valuation to get right
00:39:14
and trying to stretch to a 60 or 70
00:39:17
billion dollar print I think is really
00:39:19
tough this is a
00:39:21
honesty at 15 to 20 billion dollar
00:39:23
company ouch so a question for Youth and
00:39:26
I'll open it up to to The Davids
00:39:29
why would SoftBank I know the answer but
00:39:32
I'm asking you so you can explain it to
00:39:34
the audience why would SoftBank take a
00:39:36
company public with these headwinds with
00:39:39
no growth being flat why are they taking
00:39:42
it public now well SoftBank has the
00:39:44
d-lever right they have a they have a
00:39:46
very big problem which is that they have
00:39:49
this forget SoftBank Vision fund for a
00:39:51
second but SoftBank itself is a Telco
00:39:55
operator that has ginormous piles of
00:39:58
debt that they've used to finance the
00:39:59
building of their business and so when
00:40:02
you have contraction in your core
00:40:03
business
00:40:05
you become more and more at risk of
00:40:07
breaching the covenants of all that debt
00:40:09
and or you just like run out of free
00:40:11
cash flow like all of these things
00:40:12
really hurt your future ability to
00:40:15
invest and so SoftBank is under a lot of
00:40:17
pressure to just clean up the balance
00:40:19
sheet and delever and so when you have
00:40:21
an asset like this sitting there if you
00:40:24
can sell you know 20 or 30 billion
00:40:27
dollars of that call it to somebody and
00:40:31
then replenish your balance sheet
00:40:33
that provides tremendous liquidity and
00:40:35
relief and they did that as well a few
00:40:38
months ago with Alibaba they've started
00:40:40
to I think now they may have sold out of
00:40:42
the overwhelming majority of the
00:40:44
position in Alibaba again because they
00:40:46
have massive liquidity needs because
00:40:48
they have so much debt so this is just
00:40:51
part and parcel of them delevering the
00:40:53
balance sheet so they're forced to get
00:40:55
it out is I guess what you're saying and
00:40:56
then we've talked sacks a little bit
00:40:58
about other companies that are going to
00:41:01
be forced they're on the what do they
00:41:03
call it when you're on a pirate ship
00:41:04
they make you walk the plank I'd say
00:41:06
this is like the walking of the plank to
00:41:08
an IPO you've got other companies that
00:41:11
have issues where they just have to get
00:41:12
public at some point so maybe
00:41:14
the public markets are going to open up
00:41:17
and uh in some cases it's going to be
00:41:19
because people are walking the plank
00:41:21
other cases it's going to be
00:41:21
opportunistic so maybe you could talk a
00:41:23
little bit about your thoughts on that I
00:41:24
think it's hard to walk the plank into
00:41:25
the public markets I'm not sure exactly
00:41:27
what you mean by that because the public
00:41:28
markets have to want to buy your
00:41:29
issuance
00:41:31
so if it's not a good company then you
00:41:33
know in this environment they're not
00:41:34
gonna be able to IPO well they're going
00:41:36
to be able to iPad I think the question
00:41:37
is the price they have no choice so yeah
00:41:40
there may be a lot of down rounds into
00:41:42
an IPO from the last private round which
00:41:44
was two or three times what the IPO
00:41:46
price is going to be maybe what you mean
00:41:48
by walk the plank is that well you tell
00:41:51
me but
00:41:52
there are a lot of companies which have
00:41:54
built up huge pref Stacks because they
00:41:55
raise too much money at the Peak at
00:41:58
valuations are too high and going public
00:42:01
does allow you to reset your whole prep
00:42:02
stack because all the preferred with all
00:42:05
the rights and preferences converts to
00:42:07
Common so post IPO you just have common
00:42:09
yeah and so it is a way to like clear
00:42:12
out
00:42:13
all the structure and all the mess that
00:42:15
has built up in a company and you can
00:42:17
get to a real valuation that reflects
00:42:20
basically the truth of what the company
00:42:22
is worth another analogy might be the
00:42:24
house is on fire you got it you're on
00:42:25
the balcony you gotta jump or you got to
00:42:27
stay in the burning building yeah but
00:42:28
you know listen if your company's on
00:42:29
fire I don't think you're going to be on
00:42:30
IPO I mean it's it's going to be a tough
00:42:33
scrutinizing public market for new
00:42:36
offerings I think that the scenario in
00:42:39
which you can IPO is if the company is
00:42:42
fundamentally good it will be able to
00:42:44
IPO at some valuation and that valuation
00:42:47
may be a significant down round from
00:42:48
their last private round those will be
00:42:51
able to get out yeah and that's strike I
00:42:53
guess now are you it could be striped
00:42:55
yeah are you seeing David the m a
00:42:58
activity starting to Bubble Up in your
00:43:00
portfolio or in you know the back
00:43:02
channels because I'm starting to see
00:43:03
that a bit
00:43:04
Founders are packing it in in some
00:43:06
instances and saying you know what we
00:43:08
want to try for m a
00:43:09
or you know some companies are getting a
00:43:12
little bit frisky and saying hey what's
00:43:14
available in the market on the small
00:43:15
side so you're seeing any any m a action
00:43:17
not a ton yet but there's definitely a
00:43:20
growing number of startups who are
00:43:22
realizing that what they're doing is not
00:43:23
working and they're not going to raise
00:43:25
another round and so therefore figuring
00:43:27
out a graceful exit whether it's an aqua
00:43:30
hire or some other type of Landing ah
00:43:33
got it those are those might be the
00:43:34
accurate walking the planks yes those
00:43:36
are the walking the planks you're going
00:43:37
to start seeing a lot more of that for
00:43:38
sure Freeburg your thoughts on the on
00:43:40
the public markets here in relation to
00:43:42
privates
00:43:43
and people walk in the plank
00:43:46
I don't think there is a public market
00:43:48
right now there's no IPO window
00:43:50
this arm thing is you know pretty forced
00:43:54
it seems It's not like there's a ton of
00:43:57
pent-up public demand to buy these arm
00:43:59
shares at least that's what it seems so
00:44:01
you know they're gonna go shop it
00:44:03
they're gonna find out what the market
00:44:04
tells them it's worth and
00:44:06
and then we'll see Nvidia is going to
00:44:07
help buoy it I'm sure
00:44:09
there'll be an argument that you know
00:44:11
all boats will rise and arm will be a
00:44:14
beneficiary but I don't know if that
00:44:16
necessarily leads into the IPO window
00:44:18
being open again I think we've all heard
00:44:20
the commentary from Morgan Stanley that
00:44:22
they don't think the window's opening
00:44:23
until
00:44:24
Q2 Q3 of next year maybe I can't
00:44:27
remember the exact commentary
00:44:30
but as as we all know
00:44:32
a lot of LPS in Venture funds and
00:44:35
private Equity Funds are waiting for the
00:44:38
IPO window to reopen before they're
00:44:40
going to start reallocating Capital back
00:44:42
into the private Venture funds
00:44:45
because they need to get liquid in order
00:44:46
to be able to recycle Capital back into
00:44:48
the next class of funds
00:44:51
so this glut right now this inability to
00:44:53
kind of get companies public is
00:44:55
certainly Weighing on folks you know you
00:44:57
effectively have three options when
00:44:59
you're running a private company
00:45:02
you gotta keep raising money
00:45:04
which means either raise private capital
00:45:07
or go public and we've talked about the
00:45:08
challenges of raising late stage private
00:45:10
Capital if you've had a high private
00:45:12
valuation in your prior round going
00:45:15
public is very difficult right now
00:45:16
because a lot of folks are still
00:45:18
digesting and having indigestion from
00:45:20
the last couple of years or you got to
00:45:22
sell the company or you got to get
00:45:23
profitable now on the sell the company
00:45:25
side many of the Acquisitions that we're
00:45:27
seeing with a few exceptions are
00:45:28
generally more bolt-on and less like hey
00:45:30
I'm going to pay some big strategic
00:45:31
premium for some big strategic game
00:45:33
changing company right now because all
00:45:35
the buyers are dealing with their own
00:45:37
shareholder issues and their own public
00:45:39
stock issues right now then the you know
00:45:41
can you get profitable it's really as
00:45:42
you guys know where a lot of folks are
00:45:44
going which is totally restructure your
00:45:46
ambition restructure your plans and
00:45:48
build a business where customers are
00:45:51
willing to pay you money
00:45:52
and where you can then take that profit
00:45:54
and only reinvest that profit and not
00:45:57
invest more than that profit and if you
00:45:58
can get to that steady state
00:46:01
you know you can live to see another
00:46:02
another day another year another decade
00:46:05
and those businesses by the way that we
00:46:08
saw in the.com boom and the global
00:46:09
financial crisis that that were able to
00:46:11
do that during the the doldrum Death
00:46:14
Valley March that everyone's going
00:46:15
through right now they emerged
00:46:17
Victorious they learned how to be frugal
00:46:19
they learned how to be nimble they
00:46:21
learned how to really focus on customer
00:46:23
experience because they had to increase
00:46:25
retention and they had to increase the
00:46:26
prices they were charging they learned
00:46:28
how to be efficient with allocating
00:46:29
resources and so profitability
00:46:32
became a core part of their DNA and
00:46:35
their ability to succeed
00:46:36
so I think this is really a a trial era
00:46:40
and you know on the other side of this
00:46:43
trial era a number of very high quality
00:46:44
companies will emerge but in the interim
00:46:46
I don't think that there's a an IPO path
00:46:48
that a lot of folks can just check the
00:46:50
box and say hey let's go ahead and go
00:46:51
public even if the valuation Is Not
00:46:52
Great remember an IPO process you got to
00:46:55
over sell your book or the bankers won't
00:46:57
underwrite it so if they're you know you
00:46:59
can't just say hey the price is now five
00:47:00
bucks and expect anchors are there if a
00:47:03
company's burning money the big concern
00:47:05
with going public right now is that
00:47:07
there is no pipe Market there is no
00:47:08
ability to do secondary to do follow-on
00:47:10
offerings so the company can't raise
00:47:12
Capital after it's public so unless
00:47:15
you're actually profitable your option
00:47:17
of going public right now really isn't
00:47:20
there because shareholders don't want to
00:47:21
buy shares in a company that may run out
00:47:23
of money yeah and that's what it ends up
00:47:25
yeah yeah and to your point if you take
00:47:27
this third option and you you become
00:47:29
really resilient and you have profits
00:47:30
chamoth that seems to me to be the setup
00:47:34
for the next boom that we could
00:47:36
experience in the coming Years hopefully
00:47:37
which is we don't have companies that
00:47:40
are burning you know mountains of cash
00:47:42
people are getting to profitable these
00:47:44
businesses look great and then if the
00:47:45
big companies are now
00:47:47
you know having their stock prices
00:47:49
recover and they've laid off 20 000
00:47:51
employees and they got people returning
00:47:52
to the office and they're fit and
00:47:54
they're strong hey that's a setup for
00:47:56
strong companies buying strong companies
00:47:58
or those strong companies that are
00:48:00
private the m a market is dead as a
00:48:01
doornail it's more dead than the IPO
00:48:03
market so two days ago the European
00:48:06
commission and the CMA in the UK said
00:48:08
that they're probing Adobe Sigma because
00:48:11
they have some concerns that it's going
00:48:13
to limit competition in the market it
00:48:15
looks like Microsoft will have to
00:48:18
give a 15-year license to video game
00:48:21
streaming to Ubisoft in order to get the
00:48:24
UK folks to agree to Activision to their
00:48:26
Activision acquisition so you're talking
00:48:28
about the first case a 20 billion dollar
00:48:30
merger that may not happen
00:48:33
because the CMA they found their footing
00:48:37
they clearly had a win in the Microsoft
00:48:41
Activision thing and now
00:48:43
they're probably going to find issue
00:48:45
with the Adobe figma thing and the
00:48:47
Europeans don't want to be left out in
00:48:48
the action so they're jumping in so I
00:48:50
think the m a market is effectively dead
00:48:53
what it leaves is an IPO Market but that
00:48:57
is very tenuous because you don't have a
00:48:59
leading candidate that can really
00:49:00
catalyze something and I made this
00:49:02
prediction earlier but I think the only
00:49:04
company that can really catalyze things
00:49:05
would be if people are ready to do
00:49:07
starlink I mean it's the most obvious
00:49:09
natural logical thing that would just
00:49:11
get everybody excited and off the
00:49:13
sidelines
00:49:15
and into the arena but that may take
00:49:18
another year may not but it may
00:49:21
in the meantime I don't think there's
00:49:22
any company like instacart I don't think
00:49:24
people are going to be jumping off the
00:49:26
sidelines arm it'll be tough
00:49:29
even stripe now is like a very
00:49:31
complicated valuation trade and I think
00:49:33
that that's a really technical
00:49:35
thing to be involved in in an IPO like
00:49:38
that a technical evaluation and so
00:49:40
companies have no choice except to get
00:49:43
profitable and get to default to life to
00:49:46
use the famous Paul Graham quote dear
00:49:48
that's the only path that's it yeah I
00:49:50
mean Pat you either have to be default
00:49:53
alive which means profitable or default
00:49:55
investable which means that you're
00:49:58
capable of producing metrics that a VC
00:50:00
will fund but really that starts with
00:50:02
100 year-over-year growth there's a lot
00:50:04
of companies that aren't growing very
00:50:06
fast they're growing 20 30 40 50 60
00:50:08
growth
00:50:09
refundable yeah or they're flat even
00:50:12
worse some are shrinking so those cases
00:50:15
they got to think more like a PE model
00:50:17
than a venture model yeah and PE
00:50:19
companies are cash flow positive they
00:50:22
don't burn cash
00:50:24
I put out this video a few months ago
00:50:27
called VC or PE what's the right
00:50:29
framework for thinking about your
00:50:30
startup this was a
00:50:32
oh craft Ventures YouTube this is a talk
00:50:35
that I gave to our portfolio companies
00:50:37
we recorded it and then published it
00:50:39
really it should have gotten more
00:50:41
attention but this was basically
00:50:43
recommending to all those slower growing
00:50:46
companies in our portfolios stop
00:50:48
thinking that VC funding is always going
00:50:51
to be available and start thinking more
00:50:53
like a PE funded private Equity company
00:50:55
which is to say you need to cut your
00:50:58
burn to get cash flow positive you will
00:51:00
then be able to
00:51:01
uh control your own destiny so yeah this
00:51:03
slide here if you're not VC eligible act
00:51:05
realistically so we provided some
00:51:07
guidance on what makes a company
00:51:10
eligible for VC funding and you can see
00:51:12
there's a good column there's a great
00:51:13
column good starts at 2x growth grade is
00:51:16
3x gross margins good starts at 50 great
00:51:19
is 80 net dollar retention good starts
00:51:22
at 100 greatest 120 percent CAC payback
00:51:25
good is 12 to 18 months grade is 6 to 12
00:51:28
months burn multiple good as one and a
00:51:32
half great is one or less and then
00:51:34
there's some danger zones as well this
00:51:36
was to provide them with some realistic
00:51:38
guidance in terms of whether they'll be
00:51:40
able to raise another VC round or not
00:51:41
and I can tell you like most startups in
00:51:45
start world right now are in the danger
00:51:47
zone it's a really tough environment and
00:51:50
so you know listen if you're a startup
00:51:53
with sub 1 million of ARR and you're in
00:51:55
the danger zone you're probably gonna
00:51:56
have to pack it in or maybe you package
00:51:57
yourself up for an aqua hire but if
00:52:00
you're a startup that has 50 million of
00:52:02
ARR but you're in the danger zone just
00:52:05
cut your burn you could basically make
00:52:07
yourself Castrol positive and you could
00:52:10
engineer an outcome for yourself a
00:52:11
pretty good outcome my anecdotal
00:52:13
experience is one of our larger
00:52:16
Investments
00:52:18
we brought in a private Equity Firm or
00:52:19
they came in
00:52:21
and my God it's been an incredible
00:52:23
experience
00:52:25
because the combination of how like a VC
00:52:28
looks at a business and how a PE firm
00:52:30
looks at a business in A Moment Like
00:52:32
This is hyper additive because it's
00:52:34
super clarifying it's very
00:52:36
straightforward and it gives a CEO an
00:52:38
extremely clear mandate from which to
00:52:40
operate and then they become very
00:52:42
measurable and I found it to be a really
00:52:45
really healthy thing
00:52:47
now PE guys can only get in involved in
00:52:50
companies of a certain size so it limits
00:52:52
50 million and above in Revenue 100
00:52:54
million Yeah in our case it was a 400
00:52:56
million 380 300 more than 300 million
00:52:59
Revenue so it's a big it's a big company
00:53:00
but
00:53:01
my point is just more that
00:53:03
we were moving along a trajectory to
00:53:05
getting to default alive but by adding
00:53:07
that PE
00:53:09
part discipline tool support boom I
00:53:12
think we were able to
00:53:14
focus on it probably a year to 18 months
00:53:17
faster and with specific Precision
00:53:20
because they have a very different
00:53:21
toolkit and a reaction to mis-execution
00:53:23
and that's extremely healthy
00:53:26
yeah we had this happen you know meeting
00:53:28
with uh just from the front lines we um
00:53:31
we meet with we have 20 000 people apply
00:53:34
for funding from our firm in large part
00:53:36
I would say we doubled the number of
00:53:38
applications after all in started so
00:53:40
shout out to my besties here it's really
00:53:41
helped our deal flow and we find
00:53:43
companies and we found a company that
00:53:45
was obsessed with all in and the two
00:53:47
Founders were quants and they made this
00:53:48
company called Stone algo
00:53:50
we meet this company they've got very
00:53:52
little money it's a bootstrap company
00:53:54
and they got to a half million dollars
00:53:56
in Revenue
00:53:58
you know just on Sweat Equity and we
00:54:00
find this company it's not part of the
00:54:02
Silicon Valley you know accelerator
00:54:04
system it's basically kayak for diamonds
00:54:07
uh shout out to the team over there and
00:54:08
we were able to place a nice bet on this
00:54:10
company that was break even
00:54:12
and you know put in uh you know a couple
00:54:14
of hundred thousand dollars to to start
00:54:16
start them down this um road to growing
00:54:18
faster but what a delightful thing to
00:54:20
find a profitable company
00:54:23
in the world and so if you have a
00:54:25
profitable company like and it's just 50
00:54:28
000 a month or 25 000 a month please
00:54:30
email me Jason calagonist.com I want to
00:54:31
invest in your company
00:54:33
when you have that company small amount
00:54:35
of Revenue profitable and you're not
00:54:37
burning a ton you are so attractive to
00:54:39
investors right now it's the highest
00:54:40
attractiveness in the world and I just
00:54:44
want to point out David as this Market
00:54:46
has you know completely gone from
00:54:49
absolute chaos the hair has gotten
00:54:52
Tighter and Tighter you were in Crazy
00:54:55
Banning and now you are tight tight is
00:54:57
Right Sachs is focused he's deploying
00:55:00
that LP Capital he's deploying that
00:55:02
advice to SAS companies and it's no joke
00:55:04
now folks General sax is here he is not
00:55:08
crazy
00:55:10
history Uncle he is sassax he's sassax
00:55:13
is back this is like when uh Mark
00:55:16
Zuckerberg started wearing a tie to work
00:55:19
to start showing that it was serious yes
00:55:21
yes
00:55:24
with that slick back hair all right
00:55:27
listen we gotta get going here we got a
00:55:29
lot more on the docket I I think we just
00:55:32
maybe I'm gonna jump the fence here
00:55:35
and we just go right to the Republican
00:55:37
primary the funniest thing last night
00:55:39
was at poker we watched it you watched
00:55:42
it during poker were you able to focus
00:55:44
you have to hear Kevin Hart react
00:55:47
when all these guys are doing it's one
00:55:49
of the funniest things I've ever heard
00:55:50
and the worst part of the poker was
00:55:57
uh the magician here we go
00:56:00
how can you both be playing poker here
00:56:03
but also on the debate stage at this
00:56:05
time
00:56:08
which I thought was
00:56:10
that was a funny joke
00:56:14
but it was funny it was very funny all
00:56:17
right listen I know everybody's I just
00:56:19
want to go around the horn here
00:56:20
Friedberg
00:56:21
did you watch the debate
00:56:23
who won the debate who had the largest
00:56:26
gain
00:56:28
net gain in terms of their profile in
00:56:31
your mind after watching debate number
00:56:34
one of the GOP David Friedberg biggest
00:56:37
gain I watched the debate I kind of
00:56:39
think about these guys on three
00:56:41
dimensions which is the content how
00:56:43
dynamic they are and their personality I
00:56:46
think those are the three dimensions
00:56:47
that people are going to be kind of
00:56:48
assessing them on
00:56:50
I think Nikki Haley did a tremendous job
00:56:53
gaining
00:56:55
interest with respect to her
00:56:58
personality and her content
00:57:02
burgum Hutchinson I don't think had a
00:57:04
chance to move the needle on any of them
00:57:07
I think Vivek was by far the winner on
00:57:11
Dynamic he had the
00:57:14
the hardest hitting biggest comeback
00:57:15
with a very close second being Chris
00:57:17
Christie but I do think that Vivek got
00:57:20
taken apart when it comes to content and
00:57:23
I have real concerns about his
00:57:24
personality there's a lot of people that
00:57:26
are just turned off by him that he seems
00:57:28
a little too eager that he seems a
00:57:30
little
00:57:31
too smart for his own good
00:57:33
the commentary about him being so Junior
00:57:36
and doesn't have experience I think
00:57:38
standing next to those guys on stage
00:57:40
really showed to be honest Mickey Haley
00:57:43
tearing him apart on his uh point of
00:57:46
view on Russia
00:57:48
and sax you know we can debate the point
00:57:50
or not but I think she did a masterful I
00:57:52
don't think she tore him apart I think
00:57:54
the biggest dunk line of the evening was
00:57:57
when he congratulated her on her future
00:57:59
appointments to the boards of Raytheon
00:58:01
and Lockheed yeah that was I think that
00:58:03
was brilliant I just think he's the most
00:58:05
dynamic character and I think people
00:58:06
people do in a democracy vote on that
00:58:08
they vote on how Dynamic someone is they
00:58:10
vote on their personality and whether
00:58:13
they can trust the person I think Nikki
00:58:15
Haley shines there she seems extremely
00:58:16
trustworthy and personable Chris
00:58:18
Christie came across as very personable
00:58:20
so you're big Winners yeah Mike Pence I
00:58:23
would say under underwhelmed and Ron
00:58:25
DeSantis man it's like he didn't show up
00:58:34
are probably like you know across those
00:58:37
Dimensions like you know the four
00:58:39
runners and everyone else is probably
00:58:41
off now let me get your mom and then
00:58:43
sack you get to comment on both of there
00:58:45
so I want to go to you last because you
00:58:47
have the most passion here chamath who
00:58:50
are your big Winners coming out of it in
00:58:52
other words who gained the most last
00:58:54
night welcome Brown do for you Buck and
00:58:56
brown do for you I think that okay UPS
00:58:58
settlement great I thought that I
00:59:00
thought that Nikki Haley did an
00:59:02
incredible job
00:59:04
and I do think that Vivek did a very
00:59:06
good job and I think what's interesting
00:59:08
is that I'm fascinated to see what the
00:59:11
Republican reaction over the next few
00:59:13
weeks will be
00:59:15
to Vivek and specifically what I'm
00:59:18
interested in seeing is
00:59:20
do the Trump loyalists
00:59:22
start to were they incepted with an idea
00:59:25
yesterday
00:59:27
which is that this guy can give us a lot
00:59:30
of the talking points we want
00:59:32
without some of the heartburn and agita
00:59:34
that we don't want and
00:59:38
if he is able to thread that needle
00:59:40
which is what I think his effective
00:59:42
strategy has been
00:59:46
he could really build momentum going
00:59:49
into the fall
00:59:51
so that was my that was my real takeaway
00:59:53
is that he is refining A playbook look
00:59:55
the guy is a clearly a really brilliant
00:59:58
person
00:59:59
well studied
01:00:01
well prepared
01:00:03
and dynamic
01:00:05
as David said so he can you know clap
01:00:07
back at people which I think is
01:00:09
important but the most important thing
01:00:11
that he's done is he has defined a very
01:00:15
precise strategy to thread this needle
01:00:19
of being close enough to Trump
01:00:22
to frankly eventually
01:00:25
go after him but do it in a way where
01:00:28
he's slowly building credibility among
01:00:31
Trump Loyalists and I think if you look
01:00:33
at where
01:00:34
other people made huge gaffs unnecessary
01:00:37
gaffs was they took their beliefs and
01:00:42
they confuse them with the strategy of
01:00:44
winning and that doesn't work in the
01:00:46
Republican party so when
01:00:48
the candidates were asked about Trump
01:00:50
and the ones that Drew a hard line and
01:00:51
said that this guy's going to go to jail
01:00:52
what happened they got booed and it just
01:00:55
ended their ability to be credible
01:00:59
for what they said afterwards I'm not
01:01:01
saying that that's right or wrong it's
01:01:02
just an observation so I think vivec is
01:01:04
doing the smartest job of understanding
01:01:06
the rules on the field
01:01:09
and he's in the arena okay so that gives
01:01:12
them a lot that gives them a lot now we
01:01:14
go to sack sacks you heard Nikki Vivek
01:01:16
Christie from Freeburg you heard yeah
01:01:20
and Tim Scott so the vet clearly uh the
01:01:23
buzz and the Search terms and everything
01:01:25
it seems to be favoring Vivek as the big
01:01:27
lift here do you think vivec is the
01:01:30
Trump change agent without the
01:01:33
indictments without the baggage without
01:01:35
the Trump derangement syndrome insanity
01:01:38
is is chamoth correct here that he's a
01:01:40
more palatable version of the change
01:01:42
agent that is Trump I think he's
01:01:44
positioning himself as the backup plan
01:01:46
to Trump
01:01:47
so he's not criticizing Trump he is
01:01:49
cultivating support within Trump's space
01:01:52
again not to supersede him but I think
01:01:55
to perhaps be a backup plan I think it
01:01:57
is a smart strategy but let me back up a
01:01:59
little bit here who won for you
01:02:05
everybody else played the game biggest
01:02:07
game clearly the biggest game was Vivek
01:02:10
that's okay reflected in the polling
01:02:12
there's a poll on Drudge Report in which
01:02:14
33 which was the highest number said
01:02:16
that he won the debate 22 for Haley 18
01:02:19
suffer DeSantis Christie got 16 the rest
01:02:22
were just non-factors so not scientific
01:02:25
but pretty scientific but this is
01:02:27
corroborated by Nate silver how to yes
01:02:29
some stock this morning basically saying
01:02:31
that based on the buzz on social media
01:02:34
and the
01:02:35
sentiments Google Trends he predicted
01:02:37
that
01:02:39
for vague we keep saying Vivek Vivek
01:02:43
it's it is
01:02:45
quite key he's gonna have the biggest
01:02:47
bounce out of the debate partly that's a
01:02:50
function of the fact that he was the
01:02:51
least well-known candidate okay so this
01:02:54
gave him a lot of exposure and he has a
01:02:56
good orator I mean just the way he
01:02:58
caused the energy the timber of his
01:03:00
voice he projects well and he had a
01:03:04
clear point of view in this debate you
01:03:06
may not agree with everything he said
01:03:07
but he had a very clear point of view
01:03:09
and I expect that both the number of
01:03:11
people who like him and the number of
01:03:13
people who dislike him will go up as a
01:03:15
result of this but I think the net
01:03:16
effect of that will be positive now let
01:03:19
me back up just give you a couple more
01:03:20
thoughts on the debate first of all in
01:03:22
terms of winners I think the Republican
01:03:24
party in a way demonstrated that it is
01:03:27
the party of ideas where there actually
01:03:29
are debates happening because you saw
01:03:32
here I think real differences between
01:03:34
the candidates and I could break them up
01:03:36
into really three categories if you like
01:03:38
there's this Neo on wing
01:03:41
of sort of Hardline foreign policy Hawks
01:03:44
and he saw Dicky Haley's part of that
01:03:46
and Chris Christie and Pence
01:03:48
momentum Scott then you had this
01:03:51
religious right faction where you've got
01:03:53
Pence and Scott and then you've kind of
01:03:55
got the Maga Wing which Vivek really
01:03:58
took up the mantle of opposing Ukraine
01:04:01
and defending Trump so you have three
01:04:03
very different groups within the party
01:04:04
who are battling I think for mind share
01:04:08
within the party and to be the future of
01:04:09
the party so it's not just about
01:04:11
candidates and personal style but it
01:04:13
really is about ideas you compare that
01:04:15
to the Democratic party they're not even
01:04:17
having a debate they're protecting Biden
01:04:19
from a debate there could be a real
01:04:21
debate because RFK Jr has really
01:04:23
different ideas and he would like to
01:04:26
take the party in a very different
01:04:27
direction the direction of his father
01:04:30
and Uncle Bobby Kennedy and John F
01:04:33
Kennedy he's saying that we have moved
01:04:35
away from where we should be as a party
01:04:37
but the people who control the
01:04:39
Democratic party do not want to have
01:04:40
that debate they have shut it down
01:04:42
completely there is no debate they're
01:04:44
just protecting Biden so
01:04:46
that's number one is I think we should
01:04:48
give the Republican party some credit
01:04:49
for being willing to discuss and debate
01:04:52
I love the fact that you had a vibrant
01:04:55
debate you had differences of opinions
01:04:57
now it was a little like a UFC fight and
01:05:00
you know zingers and back and forth but
01:05:03
I did like the fact that you had
01:05:05
people who in moderation was actually
01:05:08
surprisingly good when they forced them
01:05:10
to say like would you give Trump a
01:05:11
pardon or you know what would you do in
01:05:13
terms of support for Ukraine this was
01:05:16
like really well done and they had that
01:05:18
30 second thing where they stopped
01:05:19
people they said hey this is the 30
01:05:20
second one and they had to reign in
01:05:21
Pence because he kept you know
01:05:24
interrupting and they were kind of
01:05:26
respectable so I just want to shout out
01:05:28
to Fox for good moderation uh there were
01:05:30
some crazy zingers in there as well and
01:05:33
it seems like we live in zinger culture
01:05:35
I think the the best Zinger goes to the
01:05:37
moderator who said let's talk about the
01:05:39
elephant that's not in the room and then
01:05:41
they brought up Trump well Frank I don't
01:05:43
know if you caught that one but that was
01:05:44
pretty hardcore well so let's talk about
01:05:47
winner number two which was Trump
01:05:48
because Trump did not participate and he
01:05:50
didn't pay any price whatsoever for that
01:05:52
he barely got mentioned or attacked on
01:05:55
that stage and then he did this
01:05:57
interview with Tucker which started five
01:05:59
minutes before in the debate which was
01:06:01
kind of brilliant because once again
01:06:02
Trump was able to suck up a lot of the
01:06:04
oxygen maybe not all of it but a lot of
01:06:06
oxygen without even participating in the
01:06:08
debate it was a perfect bookend I
01:06:09
watched both it was a perfect bookend
01:06:11
you got Trump over here saying chamath
01:06:13
I'm interested in your position but he
01:06:15
said listen I don't need to be in there
01:06:16
with these guys mudsling and they have
01:06:17
zero or one percent uh and I I think he
01:06:20
got the sense that he's excited to
01:06:21
debate them when there's two people left
01:06:23
or something like that what did you
01:06:24
think of did you watch Trump's thing uh
01:06:26
Freeburg or Tremont
01:06:29
I watched both the debate and then I
01:06:33
watched I do think Trump effectively won
01:06:35
the debate night
01:06:37
because you had all these guys going at
01:06:39
each other
01:06:39
and then you had Trump playing the trump
01:06:43
card I'm not even gonna show up because
01:06:45
I don't have to he literally made
01:06:47
himself better than everyone else in the
01:06:49
room by saying I'm not even it's not
01:06:51
even worth my time to show up to talk to
01:06:53
you guys go ahead and fight with each
01:06:54
other I'll also just restate this this
01:06:57
point about Vivek I think it became
01:06:59
abundantly clear that his strategy his
01:07:01
strategy
01:07:03
is to Pander to the Trump audience that
01:07:06
his commentary about you know God is
01:07:08
real climate change is the numbers
01:07:11
there's two genders he knows through
01:07:14
polling through his understanding and
01:07:17
his intelligence that this is what this
01:07:20
audience that is the bulk of the voting
01:07:22
members of the Republican Party want to
01:07:25
hear and he is telling them what they
01:07:27
want to hear and then uh isn't that the
01:07:30
Java politician yeah I mean isn't that
01:07:32
better than pandering to the
01:07:33
military-industrial complex like Nikki
01:07:35
Haley did there was a comment last night
01:07:36
that I thought was really important
01:07:38
which is that leadership is not about
01:07:40
consensus and what he's doing is he is
01:07:42
reflecting back the consensus view of
01:07:44
the majority of people in that party in
01:07:45
order to get himself elected rather than
01:07:47
leading with a different message that
01:07:49
casts a different opportunity the
01:07:50
different light on the opportunity for
01:07:52
this nation and I think that's really
01:07:54
where he and others on that stage or he
01:07:56
particularly falls short is that he
01:07:59
speaks too much to what people already
01:08:00
believe and say because he knows that
01:08:03
that's what they're voting for Trump
01:08:04
about and then the bet is that there's
01:08:06
some chance not a hundred percent but
01:08:08
some chance that Trump doesn't make it
01:08:10
all the way he ends up in jail or people
01:08:12
start to turn on him and then he's the
01:08:14
front runner because he's basically
01:08:16
captivated that audience yeah hold on
01:08:19
but Freeburg and I will let you address
01:08:20
it here chamoth just said the Brilliance
01:08:23
of Vivek and his positioning here is
01:08:25
that he understands how to win and he is
01:08:28
playing this game and you call it
01:08:30
pandering sacks as I've been saying it's
01:08:33
understanding the needs of that audience
01:08:34
the job of a politician sex is to win
01:08:37
and to stay in office so I don't believe
01:08:40
the Vex positions on a lot of the stuff
01:08:42
I think he is pandering I think he
01:08:44
wouldn't do what Trump did I think you
01:08:47
know he's he's doing the part in promise
01:08:48
because he knows he gets some votes so
01:08:50
how do you reconcile this your job is to
01:08:53
win right and you would rather see
01:08:54
DeSantis maybe pick up on some of this
01:08:56
action no
01:08:59
as your preferred candidate
01:09:00
then that's a good question Freeburg do
01:09:03
you think that a politician's job
01:09:06
when you're running for president of the
01:09:08
United States is it to understand the
01:09:10
conditions on the field and when or not
01:09:13
I think the politician's job or I I
01:09:16
don't want to say the job I think the
01:09:18
opportunity to get elected in a
01:09:19
democracy is to provide leadership to
01:09:23
cast a light on where you think the
01:09:25
country or whatever constituency you're
01:09:27
supposed to lead can go to provide a
01:09:31
sense of opportunity to provide a sense
01:09:32
of optimism to provide a sense of what's
01:09:35
not happening today that should be
01:09:36
different rather than reflecting back to
01:09:39
those people exactly what they want now
01:09:40
the flip side of that is exactly what
01:09:42
you're saying which is that I think what
01:09:44
happens in a democracy is that people
01:09:45
elect people that represent what they
01:09:47
believe and I think that's what's going
01:09:48
to happen
01:09:49
he's raising his hand and he's saying I
01:09:51
believe these things and he's going to
01:09:53
get elected or he's going to put himself
01:09:54
in a position to get elected if Trump
01:09:56
drops out I just think there's a lot of
01:09:59
people who are very smart who if they
01:10:02
are too idealistic will achieve nothing
01:10:04
in their lives and I don't think Vivek
01:10:05
is one of those people idealism has a
01:10:07
place in the world it's not on the
01:10:09
debate stage when you're running for
01:10:10
president United States okay sax you
01:10:11
wanted to get in here go okay let's take
01:10:13
the issue of Ukraine because that was
01:10:15
one of the main issues that Vivek
01:10:17
differed from the rest of the people on
01:10:19
that stage there is polling by CNN that
01:10:22
a majority of Americans have now turned
01:10:24
against the idea of giving more Aid to
01:10:26
Ukraine I'm sure that number is much
01:10:28
higher in the Republican party if you
01:10:31
remember there was an event Charlie Kirk
01:10:34
who is a conservative influencer has an
01:10:37
event called Turning Point USA and they
01:10:39
did polling of their conference
01:10:40
attendees the number one issue that
01:10:43
everyone agreed on was Ukraine 95 of the
01:10:47
attendees opposed giving more Aid to
01:10:50
Ukraine Donald Trump only got 85 percent
01:10:52
popularity so the base of the party is
01:10:56
even more united
01:10:57
against Joe Biden's policy in Ukraine
01:11:00
than they are unloving Trump okay that
01:11:02
tells you something and yet
01:11:04
for Vegas the only candid on that stage
01:11:06
that was willing to raise his hand like
01:11:08
aggressively like full-throatedly not
01:11:10
kind of a half-hearted to saying that he
01:11:13
did not agree with Biden's policy on
01:11:14
Ukraine what is wrong with all these
01:11:16
other people on the stage that they
01:11:17
cannot understand what is wrong with
01:11:20
Biden's Ukraine policy which by the way
01:11:22
is the signature policy of his
01:11:25
presidency what is the point of
01:11:28
Republicans nominating a candidate who's
01:11:30
just going to agree with Joe Biden on
01:11:32
providing
01:11:33
AIDS Ukraine as much as it takes for as
01:11:35
long as it takes is this your position
01:11:37
here at Freeburg is that you know win at
01:11:40
all costs let's call it the vague win at
01:11:42
all costs play the game on the field as
01:11:43
chamatha sang and just win the game
01:11:46
versus being principled because you did
01:11:49
have no no I think that that framing is
01:11:51
such a setup can I can I just say
01:11:52
something frame it how you are you you
01:11:54
said playing the game on the field and
01:11:56
Friedberg said having a principal here
01:11:58
and having like an actual vision for the
01:12:00
country so I'm taking both of yours look
01:12:02
I think the framing is not as not what
01:12:04
is wrong with Vivek but what is wrong
01:12:06
with candidates like Christy and Pence
01:12:10
and Haley and Scott where even though 95
01:12:14
of their party is opposed to Ukraine
01:12:16
they are adopting Joe Biden's policy and
01:12:19
their only criticism of Joe Biden is
01:12:21
that he's not doing enough fast enough
01:12:23
for them okay let's let free bird get in
01:12:25
here they're completely out we got your
01:12:26
point what the Republican party as it
01:12:28
stands today we got your point but is it
01:12:30
not Freebird what you're saying is that
01:12:31
there is this profile and courage to to
01:12:33
invoke that book where you there's
01:12:36
something that's unpopular that you have
01:12:38
to do and I think Nikki Haley Pence
01:12:40
Christy and the other ones who are pro
01:12:42
defending Ukraine from Russia
01:12:46
their profile encourage uh Freeburg is
01:12:48
that they will go against that 95
01:12:50
polling and say it's the right thing to
01:12:52
do we should defend Taiwan we should
01:12:54
defend Israel we should defend Ukraine
01:12:56
against those are three different issues
01:12:58
I know it's three different issues but
01:12:59
they were all evoked by the Vivek
01:13:02
himself so Freiburg your chance I think
01:13:04
The West Wing does a great job of
01:13:06
exploring both sides of this which is
01:13:08
when do you have to break the mold and
01:13:10
break the expectation of the people to
01:13:13
do the right principle thing and when do
01:13:15
you have to do the thing that you don't
01:13:17
think is right but it's what the people
01:13:18
want to have happen
01:13:20
um and I I think that that's a obviously
01:13:23
a balance that needs to be struck when
01:13:25
you're in this position of being an
01:13:26
elected leader in a democracy and so
01:13:28
there's no there's no real answer I wish
01:13:30
that there was like I wish Mr Beast had
01:13:34
like a presidential
01:13:36
process like he you guys saw his
01:13:37
Olympics video that he did last week
01:13:39
where he brought people and he created
01:13:41
this like these like five things I wish
01:13:43
that we had something like that to elect
01:13:45
President that it was more than just
01:13:47
oration because we elect the president
01:13:49
today based on their oratory skills they
01:13:52
go on stage and who has the best quippy
01:13:54
comment the person who would be the most
01:13:55
decisive Under Pressure doesn't
01:13:57
necessarily win the person who can
01:14:00
Inspire and attract and retain the best
01:14:02
leadership the person who can have the
01:14:04
best foreign policy interactions with
01:14:05
other leaders doesn't necessarily win
01:14:07
those are skills that show up in other
01:14:09
contexts
01:14:11
and when we put people on a stage and we
01:14:14
say okay speak to the audience the guy
01:14:16
who speaks the best looks the best it's
01:14:19
not necessarily the guy who is best
01:14:21
equipped to handle the challenge of the
01:14:23
Bay of Pigs or you know the decision on
01:14:26
whether or not I think you're being very
01:14:27
difficult I think you're being okay you
01:14:30
have the floor this is like that's kind
01:14:33
of like saying why isn't it that it's
01:14:35
the quarterback with the strongest arm
01:14:37
that isn't the most successful why
01:14:39
because that person is a [ __ ] loser
01:14:42
and the person that's the winner is the
01:14:44
one that can threat together a
01:14:45
multi-faceted set of skills to win the
01:14:48
game Tom Brady was drafted in the
01:14:50
seventh round not the first round he
01:14:53
wins the game because he has the
01:14:55
requisite skills which is a basket of
01:14:57
things and a Nuance of skills in
01:14:59
different moments at different times and
01:15:01
so I think that you're being a little
01:15:03
glib by saying the person isn't cool
01:15:05
under pressure or this or that
01:15:07
it's not true
01:15:09
the people that win these races have a
01:15:13
greater natural ability to be a complete
01:15:16
egoist but not a narcissist that is an
01:15:19
incredibly Deft set of skills at a fair
01:15:22
rare people have it gives them this
01:15:24
energy to be out there talking to
01:15:27
thousands and thousands and thousands
01:15:29
and thousands of people may be saying
01:15:31
the same thing thousands of times
01:15:33
but being able to stay focused being
01:15:35
able to be on point having a sense of
01:15:37
what they need to believe know the
01:15:39
details in a certain part know the high
01:15:40
level in another part stay Punchy but
01:15:42
stay affable stay that's the game there
01:15:45
are a set of skills that it takes to
01:15:46
become president you test the oration
01:15:49
skills of a person when you put them on
01:15:51
a debate stage you don't test the other
01:15:53
complex skills that it takes to be
01:15:55
president and getting people to
01:15:57
understand the complexity of the role
01:15:59
and all the other aspects of someone's
01:16:00
personality are lacking in these [ __ ]
01:16:03
debates but there are other these other
01:16:05
skills are in play and many things other
01:16:06
than just the debate like the campaign
01:16:08
is a highly sophisticated orchestration
01:16:11
of running a small little government
01:16:13
Mario Cuomo famously said that you
01:16:16
campaign and poetry and and government
01:16:19
prose and there is a difference between
01:16:21
campaigning skills and governing skills
01:16:23
there is a gap there I would update it
01:16:26
to say that you
01:16:27
govern and prose and campaign and tweets
01:16:29
you know so the campaign definitely puts
01:16:32
a huge emphasis on a candidate's
01:16:34
communication skills but that is not all
01:16:37
just
01:16:38
um gloss or style it also
01:16:42
has to do with their policies and the
01:16:44
nuances in their policies and how they
01:16:46
handle
01:16:47
pressure how good they are under
01:16:49
pressure and how good they are when
01:16:51
they're attacked so you know we put
01:16:53
these candidates through a pressure
01:16:54
cooker and kind of learn who they really
01:16:55
are I'm not sure it's a horrible process
01:16:57
so sex let me ask you a question yeah
01:16:59
Pence has been in the Situation Room
01:17:01
dealing with a foreign adversary Vivek
01:17:04
has no military or defense experience he
01:17:06
has no foreign State experience how do
01:17:09
you assess vivec in his ability to
01:17:11
address those critical issues that he's
01:17:13
going to have to lead us through versus
01:17:15
someone who's been there and done that
01:17:16
and you know give a great question great
01:17:18
question okay trust him you trust me
01:17:20
listen Pence made that argument against
01:17:22
a vague apparently not realizing that
01:17:25
the guy he was vice president for was in
01:17:27
that exact same position in 2016 no
01:17:29
previous political experience right no
01:17:31
experience being in the Situation Room
01:17:33
the only reason why Pence got to warm
01:17:36
his ass on a chair in the situation room
01:17:38
is because Donald Trump picked him to be
01:17:40
his VP oh but he wasn't responsible for
01:17:42
making any important decisions he was
01:17:44
basically clock in time as vice
01:17:46
president give me a break and that's why
01:17:48
he's at what is it one or one percent no
01:17:51
one gives a [ __ ] about Pence that's what
01:17:53
they said about Obama as well Obama had
01:17:55
zero experience Obama barely could get
01:17:57
elected before he became Senator and
01:17:59
then president in a matter of four years
01:18:01
and for Bush what happened to Bush they
01:18:03
said that exact argument as well and
01:18:05
what did they do they packed him with
01:18:06
Rumsfeld and Cheney how did that end
01:18:08
yeah I just want to also point out here
01:18:11
that sometimes things get a little bit
01:18:12
heated and when we get heated it's
01:18:13
typically because we're we're
01:18:15
triangulating around something very
01:18:16
important I think what we're trying
01:18:17
triangulating around here is that we are
01:18:20
moving uh from an era of incumbents and
01:18:24
insiders to an Era of Outsiders if to
01:18:26
your point sacks
01:18:28
post-trump
01:18:30
we now have the two or three most
01:18:33
fascinating candidates
01:18:35
are people uh who do social media who do
01:18:38
podcasts who do earned media like we
01:18:39
talked about I think two or three weeks
01:18:41
ago it's a really good insight and
01:18:42
vivekism has mastered it and he is
01:18:45
exactly like Trump and he's exactly like
01:18:46
Obama to a certain extent in that those
01:18:48
people were incredibly personable they
01:18:50
knew how to talk on podcasts they knew
01:18:51
how to engage people and I think that
01:18:54
you know this spiciness that we're
01:18:56
having here on the Pod and the spiciness
01:18:58
that you're seeing with some of those
01:18:59
candidates is that we're moving from
01:19:02
traditional media defining these
01:19:05
candidates to direct to Consumer direct
01:19:08
through Twitter acts direct through
01:19:10
podcasts this podcast included making
01:19:13
people like RFK and Vivek you know very
01:19:15
palatable people and Ross Perot I know
01:19:18
I'm gonna get laughed after bringing
01:19:19
this up who got 19 of the vote which is
01:19:23
a serious number
01:19:25
he went direct as well
01:19:28
no he he got 90 pero because he actually
01:19:33
went as an independent all the way and
01:19:34
what Ross Perot did was the equivalent
01:19:36
of what Vivek and RFK are doing on
01:19:38
Pockets he bought television time you
01:19:40
don't know that or some people in the
01:19:42
audience might not understand who Ross
01:19:44
Perot even is but look it up he bought
01:19:46
television time and he went direct to
01:19:48
the country with our budget I thought
01:19:50
this is going to be the future of
01:19:53
politics what we're witnessing right now
01:19:55
is the transition from traditional media
01:19:57
and the establishment defining who the
01:20:00
great candidates are to the public and
01:20:03
the people on podcasts and social media
01:20:04
who are the tip of the spear on the
01:20:06
Vanguard they're going to pick the
01:20:08
winners and I think this could be the
01:20:09
Tipping Point election Trump was the
01:20:11
first Obama than Trump and now Vivek and
01:20:14
RFK
01:20:15
so I just like you all to maybe respond
01:20:17
to that especially you sex since you've
01:20:19
got this orange media issue up two weeks
01:20:21
ago I partially agree with Freeburg in
01:20:23
in this sense look obviously track
01:20:25
record is important obviously the
01:20:27
ability to be an executive executive
01:20:30
functioning is important for the chief
01:20:32
executive of of our country so I'm not
01:20:35
saying that we shouldn't look at that
01:20:37
kind of record
01:20:39
and this is why was one of the reasons
01:20:41
why I support DeSantis I think he's been
01:20:43
a brilliant Governor he's done a superb
01:20:44
job in the State of Florida he did the
01:20:47
best job of all the governors during
01:20:48
covid I think he did a better job than
01:20:50
Trump did during covet so listen I think
01:20:52
those things are important where I
01:20:53
disagree is just because Mike Pence has
01:20:56
again warmed a chair in The Situation
01:20:58
Room
01:20:59
as vice president to me that's just not
01:21:02
that relevant experience I mean the VP
01:21:04
is kind of a nothing job unless
01:21:07
something terrible happens to the
01:21:09
president they get tapped on the
01:21:10
shoulder so I just disagree with what is
01:21:13
relevant experience second
01:21:16
I think it's important to recognize that
01:21:18
the reason why Vivek has a lane here and
01:21:21
the reason why Trump had a lane in 2016
01:21:24
is that the establishment wing of the
01:21:27
party is so completely out of touch with
01:21:29
what the base wants look the reason why
01:21:32
Trump came out of nowhere in 2016 is he
01:21:35
basically turned everything on his head
01:21:36
he said no more bushes no more of these
01:21:38
stupid Forever wars in the Middle East
01:21:40
we need to build a wall no more of this
01:21:42
open border policy and we need to reset
01:21:45
our tribulation with China those were
01:21:47
three Mega issues that no one else in
01:21:49
the party was talking about and the the
01:21:52
mega issue today is Ukraine 95 of the
01:21:55
bases against it and they have left the
01:21:58
fake this gigantic Lane to exploit why I
01:22:01
don't know I mean they're trapped in
01:22:03
Legacy neocon thinking that the US
01:22:09
that was I think that was a great moment
01:22:11
It's a combination of being trapped in
01:22:13
Legacy thinking where we have to be the
01:22:15
policeman in the world combined with all
01:22:17
the big donors in the party okay many of
01:22:19
whom are wrapped up with the military
01:22:19
industrial complex want to contribute to
01:22:22
that people can you just say it again
01:22:23
what you feel like I'm not hearing no I
01:22:26
think that being president requires
01:22:27
being better more than just an orator
01:22:30
and I think that the debates allow the
01:22:32
best orator to show off their skills and
01:22:34
capabilities on the debate stage I was
01:22:36
saying I wish that there were other
01:22:37
events I would love to see some set of
01:22:40
systems to expose the candidate's
01:22:43
success or failings and how well
01:22:45
equipped they are rather than the person
01:22:48
who can just give the best interview we
01:22:49
all know this when you interview a
01:22:51
candidate an engineer the engineer that
01:22:53
gives the best interview is not
01:22:54
necessarily going to become the best
01:22:56
engineer you can look at their code to
01:22:58
see if they're a great engineer you can
01:23:00
talk to people that report it to them to
01:23:02
see if they're a great manager you can
01:23:04
learn more about their success and
01:23:06
skills through more than just their
01:23:07
oration on the stage and yes there's
01:23:09
data in fact that we can pull from these
01:23:11
people I was just speculating in kind of
01:23:14
a pseudo-silly way about the concept of
01:23:16
can we do more than just put people on a
01:23:18
debate how do you hire a CEO for your
01:23:20
companies
01:23:23
well yeah what I'll tell you we don't do
01:23:25
is we don't have the employees elect the
01:23:27
CEO through a vote by having that CEO go
01:23:29
in front I don't know but you're saying
01:23:30
no I'm not the best guy for the job
01:23:31
interview is part of it but you can
01:23:34
interview we do reference calls right we
01:23:36
we talked to them about their strategy
01:23:38
and you know through the interview
01:23:40
through the reference calls through
01:23:42
looking at the performance of other
01:23:43
businesses they've built and run and you
01:23:45
know
01:23:46
that can have a wholesome understanding
01:23:49
of his candidacy and his ability to be
01:23:51
president my point is I think that there
01:23:52
are certain things like with Trump that
01:23:54
had not been tested or tried that are
01:23:56
going to come up in this role that
01:23:58
they'd never done before in the past and
01:24:00
I'm not saying look by the way I'm
01:24:02
certainly not a big you know political
01:24:04
career guys you guys know I think you
01:24:06
know I I hate that people build a career
01:24:08
around politics I think it's the most
01:24:09
inane ridiculous thing and if we could
01:24:10
go back and rewrite the Constitution
01:24:12
that's probably the first thing I put in
01:24:14
there the thing with the this line of
01:24:16
thinking that maybe this is where I
01:24:17
reacted so I apologize if I personalized
01:24:19
it is that it creates the risk of
01:24:23
exactly what you just said in this what
01:24:25
you just said right now which is this
01:24:27
blob class of people that use those
01:24:30
arguments as the reason why change can't
01:24:33
happen yeah why it might I don't
01:24:35
disagree with that I don't disagree with
01:24:36
that and I think that is the huge red
01:24:38
flag about this line of argumentation
01:24:40
around why out of the box candidates
01:24:42
can't be evaluated by reasonably smart
01:24:45
people of which there are 300 million of
01:24:48
us in America that have the ability to
01:24:50
see it and so I actually don't think
01:24:52
it's as hard of a job as we make it out
01:24:55
to be and that when you get 180 190
01:24:58
million different people voting I do
01:25:01
think you actually get a pretty good
01:25:02
wisdom of the crowds and
01:25:04
take away Trump's
01:25:06
UI for a second what sax just said is so
01:25:10
profound because like what Trump nailed
01:25:12
was three ginormous lanes that turned
01:25:15
out now we can all agree with none of us
01:25:17
wanted these wars everybody basically
01:25:20
believes in that the Border needed to be
01:25:22
closed and everybody believes that China
01:25:25
has taken advantage
01:25:27
in a way that has really hollowed out
01:25:29
the middle class in America those were
01:25:31
three totems that nobody would have
01:25:33
touched and if we had allowed this whole
01:25:36
thing of like oh Trump doesn't have this
01:25:38
Trump doesn't have that he just gives
01:25:39
cute nicknames to his advert series we
01:25:41
would have missed that he actually had
01:25:44
enough executive function to nail the
01:25:46
three biggest themes of our current
01:25:48
lifetime okay I think that's fair I
01:25:51
guess my commentary can just be reduced
01:25:53
down to the debate stage and saying who
01:25:55
won and who should be is different than
01:25:57
who should be president necessarily
01:25:58
looking at the broader context
01:26:02
presidential but the presidential
01:26:04
candidacy is much more than just his
01:26:06
debates okay yes there's a lot of other
01:26:09
things going on if we're judging people
01:26:10
just based on how well they talk and how
01:26:13
quick on their feet they are Chris
01:26:14
Christie is a great talker okay he's a
01:26:17
media trained talker but guess what he
01:26:18
got booed that was yeah it's a debate
01:26:21
the dull point of the debate for me was
01:26:23
that he I thought took a kind of like a
01:26:26
low-key racist jab at Vivek when he was
01:26:29
let me read it first person yeah the
01:26:32
last person in one of these debates who
01:26:33
stood in the middle of the stage and
01:26:34
said what's a skinny guy with an odd
01:26:36
last name doing up here was Barack Obama
01:26:39
I'm afraid we're dealing with the same
01:26:40
type of amateur standing on the stage
01:26:42
tonight you felt was a little no not
01:26:44
that it's when you thought that was
01:26:45
Vivek like chat GPT essentially enough
01:26:47
already of a guy who sounds like Chachi
01:26:49
PT standing yeah here's like this Indian
01:26:51
tech worker and I thought hey man that's
01:26:53
what you read into it that's interesting
01:26:54
I thought he was just saying he sounded
01:26:56
as a Salvation Tech worker that's right
01:27:00
that he was um that he was uh very like
01:27:03
robotic and formulaic or something but
01:27:06
what did you how did you read it because
01:27:07
uh has the palace white guy on the panel
01:27:10
there was something almost personal
01:27:11
about the way that both Christy and
01:27:14
Pence seem to reactive and make it was
01:27:16
almost like who are you you young
01:27:18
whippersnapper to be on the stage with
01:27:20
me especially Pence I've been the vice
01:27:22
president who are you you know
01:27:26
here's what his quotes were dismissive
01:27:28
and I think there was a resentment that
01:27:29
even before this debate but vague was
01:27:32
rising in the polls and those guys were
01:27:33
going nowhere let me explain it and
01:27:36
again it's not just oratorical skill
01:27:37
it's the substance yes of the issues and
01:27:41
where he's willing to go that these
01:27:43
other candidates are not here are the
01:27:44
quotes to respond to let me explain it
01:27:46
to you Vivek
01:27:47
I'll go slower this time now is not the
01:27:50
time for on-the-job training and we
01:27:52
don't need to bring in a rookie all this
01:27:54
dismissive stuff from Pence to Vivek got
01:27:57
some Applause because you know conflict
01:27:59
and confrontation gets applaused by
01:28:01
these lunatics in the audience who were
01:28:03
like it was like well you also get an
01:28:05
allocation of seats for your own team so
01:28:07
yes
01:28:09
and why Pence was VP is because a rookie
01:28:12
got elected president yeah that's a very
01:28:14
good it's a good side
01:28:15
yeah that was very weird I thought the
01:28:17
thing that was very interesting listen
01:28:18
not to make it all about Trump but he
01:28:20
was the quote-unquote elephant that was
01:28:22
not in the room was the un uh dying
01:28:25
support for Pence you had everybody say
01:28:27
Pence did the right thing on January 6th
01:28:29
what would you take away from that sacks
01:28:31
because there were some there was a mix
01:28:33
of booze and cheers for Christy when he
01:28:36
kind of said like we need somebody who
01:28:38
doesn't behave this way it's Unbecoming
01:28:40
of the presidency referring to Trump so
01:28:41
what was your take on
01:28:43
is the Republican party in this audience
01:28:46
trying to move past Trump given all
01:28:49
these indictments I'm going to leave the
01:28:51
Trump Stockholm syndrome and Trump
01:28:53
derangement syndrome out of this just
01:28:54
objectively yeah
01:28:57
I thought DeSantis had the best response
01:29:00
which is listen if we spend our time
01:29:02
relitigating January 6 and looking in
01:29:04
the rear view mirror we're going to lose
01:29:06
to Joe Biden this is exactly the
01:29:07
conversation and the debate that
01:29:10
Democrats want us to be having I think
01:29:11
that's factually true that if the
01:29:14
Republican Party spends his time
01:29:15
debating January 6 that's playing into
01:29:18
Biden's hands so you don't think Trump
01:29:19
can
01:29:21
necessarily be Biden that these other
01:29:23
candidates have a better chance of
01:29:24
beating Biden is that what you mean it's
01:29:27
a question focusing focusing on
01:29:28
relitigating okay January 6 is not only
01:29:32
is it a waste of time it's just a loser
01:29:34
for republicans and by the way it's
01:29:35
Trump's worst quality to keep hearkening
01:29:38
back to the last election even I think
01:29:40
his fans and supporters don't want to
01:29:42
hear that who has a better chance of
01:29:43
winning
01:29:44
some pairing of these candidates sacks
01:29:47
or Trump and one of these candidates
01:29:49
versus Biden heads up
01:29:51
you know does uh something like DeSantis
01:29:54
Vivek or Haley and Vivek you know pick
01:29:57
your combination here have a better
01:29:59
chance versus Biden than Trump plus one
01:30:01
of these
01:30:03
I think it's tough to say but I I do
01:30:06
think that
01:30:08
Trump has really high negatives and in
01:30:10
order for him to win the presidency he's
01:30:12
got to flip something like two or three
01:30:15
out of five states like swing states
01:30:17
that voted against him last time
01:30:20
and I do think that this is one of the
01:30:22
stronger arguments that DeSantis makes
01:30:24
is that you know I could deliver those
01:30:26
States whereas Trump may not
01:30:30
so I think there is an electability
01:30:32
argument for DeSantis okay and so
01:30:35
Friedberg
01:30:36
hearing all this by the way I'm not
01:30:38
saying that that's what's going to
01:30:39
happen but I I do think we know that
01:30:41
Trump does have very high negatives and
01:30:43
yeah he's gonna have to flip some States
01:30:45
before he's going to have a lot of
01:30:47
Democrats and women come out to vote
01:30:50
against him he supercharges the base in
01:30:52
the way Hillary charged the other way
01:30:53
because I say one other thing about of
01:30:54
course to say it's just performance in
01:30:56
that debate so
01:30:58
I know that he doesn't stand out in the
01:31:00
way that you know vivekers and these
01:31:03
other candidates do because he didn't
01:31:04
deliver any zingers and also he wasn't
01:31:06
the brunt of attack I think we all
01:31:08
thought that maybe there'd be a lot more
01:31:09
incoming for him and the incoming really
01:31:11
went for Vivek
01:31:13
but I think that he had a strategy in
01:31:15
that debate this is my interpretation
01:31:17
it's not based on yeah go ahead any
01:31:18
Insider knowledge or anything like that
01:31:20
which was the way he answered questions
01:31:23
was I think to be broadly acceptable to
01:31:26
all the different factions in the GOP so
01:31:28
like I mentioned there's kind of the
01:31:30
mega faction there's the neocon faction
01:31:32
and there's the religious right faction
01:31:34
and his answers may not have been the
01:31:39
ones that were most loved by any of
01:31:41
those factions but I also think that
01:31:43
none of his answers disqualified himself
01:31:45
with any of those factions which is kind
01:31:48
of hard to do given how much they're at
01:31:49
each other's throats so sax if this was
01:31:51
a poker tournament and this was the
01:31:53
final table would you say the strategy
01:31:55
for
01:31:56
DeSantis was Hey listen I'm going to let
01:31:58
these other guys shoot it out I'm just
01:32:00
gonna sit on my big chip stack here I'm
01:32:01
in second place you got let me let let's
01:32:04
let the field eliminate themselves I'm
01:32:06
gonna just protect my stack I'm not
01:32:07
gonna play a lot of hands here he's just
01:32:09
sort of sitting and waiting for it to
01:32:12
get down to three or four people and
01:32:13
then he'll mix it up some more is that
01:32:14
the strategy I think he came across as
01:32:16
the grown-up
01:32:18
nobody really took swipes at him or
01:32:20
shots at him and he didn't really take
01:32:21
shots anybody else he did again try to
01:32:24
focus the Republican party on what it's
01:32:25
going to take to win he was one of the
01:32:27
only
01:32:28
people on that stage who had criticism
01:32:30
of Biden I think it was a mistake not to
01:32:31
criticize Biden's record
01:32:34
that was such a weird thing that they
01:32:36
were all going after Trump nothing about
01:32:39
Biden
01:32:40
the only attacks on Biden that I even
01:32:41
remember from that and I were from
01:32:42
Trump's interview with Tucker where he
01:32:45
criticized oh God he he destroyed
01:32:47
criticized Biden's lack of physical and
01:32:49
mental acuity but look I think that if
01:32:51
if the convention were ultimately to be
01:32:53
a broker convention which all the
01:32:55
different factions of the GOP had to
01:32:57
agree on a candidate then I think this
01:32:59
answers would be that candidate because
01:33:01
he may not be the candidate who is most
01:33:03
loved by any of those factions but I
01:33:05
think he's made himself the most broadly
01:33:07
acceptable to all of them the problem is
01:33:09
I don't think that's the way that
01:33:10
candidates are chosen you know I think
01:33:12
that what happens in practice is that
01:33:14
the factions are trying to feed each
01:33:16
other
01:33:17
and that one faction is going to win and
01:33:20
I think it's probably going to be the
01:33:21
mega faction so that's the problem I
01:33:23
think with the strategy but look he came
01:33:26
across the grown-up and he came across
01:33:27
as the most broadly acceptable
01:33:30
okay so if uh this is a final table of a
01:33:33
poker tournament
01:33:35
and Trump is going to sit down and
01:33:37
debate three of these people who's going
01:33:39
to be left to debate
01:33:40
Trump
01:33:42
and be the final three or four seats
01:33:44
here which three
01:33:46
I think it'll be DeSantis
01:33:49
Vivek and it'll be either
01:33:53
Tim scottron to give interesting
01:33:55
Friedberg who are the final three who
01:33:57
are going to debate Trump you know in
01:33:58
debate number four or five
01:34:00
I don't know if he's gonna show up I
01:34:02
don't know why he would if he's up 50.
01:34:05
I mean it would be it would just be such
01:34:08
a trump move to not show up to any of
01:34:11
these debates and just like get elected
01:34:13
play the game how incredible a debate
01:34:14
would that be if it was from DeSantis
01:34:16
and Vivek
01:34:18
fireworks my fourth would be Nikki Haley
01:34:20
I think she did a good she had her
01:34:22
moments in that debate I think she had
01:34:23
good advice for the Republican party on
01:34:25
the abortion issue yeah she did a really
01:34:27
great job she pointed out how you know
01:34:30
much money I thought that was a tea
01:34:32
party moment for her that's when I
01:34:34
warmed up to Nikki Haley a bunch and
01:34:35
she's like listen we also approved you
01:34:38
know six eight trillion dollars we gotta
01:34:40
look at ourselves and it was like okay
01:34:41
is it the Tea Party 2010 here I thought
01:34:43
that was a great moment who do you who
01:34:45
do you have left Freeburg everybody else
01:34:46
played the game play along who will be
01:34:48
the final three here to debate Trump if
01:34:50
Trump shows up play along for the game I
01:34:52
mean I'll give mine Vivek seems to be in
01:34:54
a good place okay
01:34:56
I don't know does Santa sends a lot of
01:34:59
money yeah he's probably gonna stick
01:35:01
around yeah so Vivek and DeSantis are we
01:35:03
all have consensus Nikki Haley here's
01:35:06
the crazy Christian look I don't think
01:35:08
he's gonna show up we got your we got
01:35:10
your point yeah yeah you're critical of
01:35:12
the fact that the vague is having a boom
01:35:16
or a surge based on his oratorical
01:35:17
skills which I think you regard as being
01:35:19
a shot away
01:35:22
but you're showing no enthusiasm for
01:35:24
DeSantis who actually has a track record
01:35:26
of being the most capable executive oh
01:35:28
no no I'm not by the way I didn't I'm
01:35:30
not we're not talking about who I would
01:35:31
vote for president we haven't even had
01:35:32
that comment like we didn't even ask
01:35:33
that question once okay so ask it now
01:35:36
putting aside Trump who do you pick what
01:35:39
was really interesting is hearing the
01:35:40
governors speak about their skills I
01:35:43
think Nikki Haley Chris Christie bergum
01:35:46
DeSantis all had moments where they
01:35:49
Shine from from Hutchinson from my
01:35:51
perspective from a Content perspective
01:35:53
which is where I was talking about at
01:35:54
the beginning which people largely
01:35:55
ignore which is that they actually had
01:35:57
quite a lot to draw from and you know
01:35:59
certain policy that seemed pretty strong
01:36:01
here we go final question final question
01:36:03
I want you to give me your one and two
01:36:05
not Trump
01:36:07
Saks we know DeSantis is number one for
01:36:09
you so then who's who's your number two
01:36:10
to pair with him who would you pair with
01:36:12
me what to be the candidate to be that
01:36:14
the ticket Republican ticket you're
01:36:16
gonna go to santus one and then who do
01:36:18
you put with them as a number two
01:36:21
well for me to Santa send I think that
01:36:25
the only candidates who have acceptable
01:36:28
answers on What I regard as the number
01:36:30
one issue of our time which is Ukraine
01:36:32
because that could lead to World War III
01:36:34
the only candidates of acceptable
01:36:35
answers are Trump of vacant DeSantis
01:36:38
meaning they've all been pretty clear
01:36:39
they would de-escalate I think all the
01:36:41
other candidates have basically
01:36:43
indicated in one way or another
01:36:45
so those three candidates are the only
01:36:47
ones that are acceptable to me okay so
01:36:49
we take Trump off if Trump doesn't run
01:36:51
which that's my personal belief but just
01:36:52
of the people who are on stage last
01:36:53
night you're going to santis Vivek is
01:36:55
your ticket who's your ticket after one
01:36:59
debate not counting Trump if if the
01:37:02
Republican ticket who do you think is
01:37:03
Republicans I like to buy these deep out
01:37:04
of the money options I think we'll go
01:37:06
out on the limb I think that Vivek has a
01:37:08
really good chance of winning this
01:37:09
Republican nomination that's what I saw
01:37:11
I saw like outright against Trump yeah
01:37:13
and we're taking a trump off the table
01:37:15
so just picking up for example for
01:37:17
example no no no no I really do think
01:37:20
he's he can in this thing and for
01:37:22
example I thought it was very clever
01:37:24
when he said that he had a line he said
01:37:27
Donald Trump was the best let me be
01:37:31
categorically
01:37:32
clear Donald Trump was the best
01:37:33
president of the 21st Century
01:37:36
and I was like what and then I thought
01:37:38
about it and I thought why is he saying
01:37:40
it does he say it because he believes it
01:37:42
or is he saying because it's like a a
01:37:44
tactic
01:37:46
and there's probably bits of both yep
01:37:49
because I do think that there are
01:37:51
elements where he fundamentally does
01:37:52
believe
01:37:53
that Trump has at least shined the path
01:37:56
forward and so I think he does believe
01:37:58
it to some degree but then I thought
01:38:00
it's even smarter to have said it and
01:38:04
again this is where I go back to I'm not
01:38:06
sure that that's oratory skills versus
01:38:08
like understanding you know Game Theory
01:38:11
strategy and and strategy and being a
01:38:14
strategic thinker and trying to win I
01:38:16
thought that that was a very smart thing
01:38:17
to have said and all along that evening
01:38:20
I thought that he did the best job
01:38:22
of preserving optionality for the Trump
01:38:26
base to say you know what Vivek is all
01:38:30
of the positive features of Trump
01:38:32
without some of the negatives so let's
01:38:34
just clean up the ticket and let's go
01:38:36
again there's a long way yeah I like the
01:38:40
call I like the call but who's number to
01:38:42
buy that deep out of the money option
01:38:43
and who's your number two then we're
01:38:45
going one two here one two here either
01:38:46
as to pair with a vague or your number
01:38:48
two choice in terms of no then I if
01:38:51
defect doesn't figure out a way to
01:38:53
slipstream past Trump the Trump will win
01:38:55
the nomination okay taking Trump out of
01:38:57
the rest who's your number two okay
01:38:59
great fascinating to see this happening
01:39:01
I agree with what a lot of what jamas
01:39:04
said yeah I think Vivek is positioning
01:39:06
himself
01:39:08
to be the backup candidate for the Maga
01:39:11
Wing yep and he's doing it by never
01:39:14
attacking Trump and by commenting him by
01:39:16
the way saying that Trump was the best
01:39:18
president of the 21st century there's
01:39:19
only been three it was George W bush
01:39:21
Obama and then Trump right oh sorry
01:39:25
Biden sorry Biden's has been four
01:39:27
George W Bush was one of the worst
01:39:29
Presidents in American history yeah so
01:39:31
it's easier Obama obviously a republican
01:39:34
candidate is not going to think highly
01:39:35
of Obama or Biden so it kind of narrows
01:39:39
it down doesn't it yeah
01:39:41
the intelligence of actually saying the
01:39:43
words yeah
01:39:45
I know I agree sax what do you think
01:39:47
about vivek's unpopular statement and it
01:39:50
may I'd like to hear whether it's
01:39:51
unpopular with the bass but it was
01:39:53
certainly unpopular in the room last
01:39:54
night that the climate change agenda is
01:39:57
a hoax which drew a lot of booze
01:39:59
that was is that like is that a
01:40:01
lightning
01:40:02
bolt kind of thing to say why would he
01:40:06
say that and what's the strategy it's
01:40:09
like Trump saying he loves coal and he
01:40:11
loves coal miners it's just painful to
01:40:13
me a little bit like he was trying to
01:40:15
see which agenda is a hoax meaning like
01:40:16
all the ESG stuff is nonsense exactly
01:40:19
but it comes across as him saying
01:40:20
climate change isn't real and he's got
01:40:22
to now deal with it climate change is
01:40:24
strategic
01:40:26
I think it's um but I don't I don't
01:40:29
think you know what he believes Jake
01:40:30
help but yeah his follow-up comment
01:40:32
around that was he said that it is an
01:40:34
economic yoke on our country
01:40:37
because the combination of subsidies and
01:40:39
the lack of expansion of carbon is
01:40:42
what's holding back the country
01:40:43
economically so that's I think I
01:40:45
remember him tying these two things
01:40:47
together so that's that's probably where
01:40:49
the state is no intelligent person
01:40:50
doesn't believe that the planet's not
01:40:51
heating up come on and that it's not
01:40:54
better to go to Renewables that's just
01:40:55
how do you know if you looked at the
01:40:56
science Jacob of course I have yes it's
01:40:58
a massive consensus on the science you
01:41:01
know as deep as a person needs to go
01:41:03
free bird
01:41:04
you just treat it look it's just
01:41:06
something you're supposed to believe in
01:41:07
no I'm I'm not saying that I just don't
01:41:10
have the statistics of how the plan
01:41:11
that's it I will say sax is right that
01:41:15
it has become a thing that it's like
01:41:17
we're all supposed to take as given no
01:41:20
one is going to go up and say Here's the
01:41:22
science that validates here's the data
01:41:24
that validates here's there's there's
01:41:25
some empirical evidence and then people
01:41:26
use counter empirical evidence to try
01:41:28
and counter it and that's what makes it
01:41:30
a little bit of a a movement now which
01:41:33
is
01:41:34
the institutions the elites however
01:41:37
they're framed have been wrong so many
01:41:38
times on the things that they told us
01:41:40
were given that we're supposed to assume
01:41:42
that this is a given to F that I'm not
01:41:45
going to be told what to believe anymore
01:41:46
and I don't want to be told what to
01:41:48
believe anymore is exactly what people
01:41:49
let me let me State my position that's
01:41:51
what they heard from that song last week
01:41:53
and that's what they heard you know in
01:41:55
physics let me State my position I
01:41:56
totally agree yeah here's the thing you
01:41:58
know after covid without me even making
01:42:00
a comment on climate change 100 we've
01:42:03
told so much [ __ ] in the name of
01:42:05
science during covet yeah they told us
01:42:07
the vaccines were safe and effective I
01:42:09
just want to clarify my position before
01:42:10
you respond to it
01:42:12
it's undeniable that temperatures have
01:42:14
risen I think it's a crazy experiment to
01:42:17
run to not try to lower it it's just a
01:42:20
crazy experiment the planet is precious
01:42:22
I don't think we should run it I am not
01:42:24
dogmatic about it it's not a religious
01:42:26
thing I'm not genuine experiment we're
01:42:28
running Jacob it's called human
01:42:29
development and growth yes
01:42:31
and the temperature goes up so why
01:42:34
wouldn't we use Renewables when not
01:42:37
pollute because not polluting is is good
01:42:40
too when you have
01:42:44
self-proclaimed scientific experts and
01:42:47
or 16 year old girls
01:42:50
shaming everybody
01:42:53
with pretty flimsy data
01:42:56
there was a while where we where
01:42:57
everybody just said Mom they must be
01:42:59
right and covet exposed the hoax and so
01:43:02
now we're a lot less prone to believe
01:43:04
these self-proclaimed intellectuals and
01:43:08
their jargon and their nonsense so
01:43:12
ask me how much money have I invested in
01:43:15
climate change with all that data zero
01:43:17
ask me how much money I've invested in
01:43:20
technologies that will benefit climate
01:43:22
change as a byproduct of National
01:43:23
Security hundreds of millions of dollars
01:43:25
yes and the reason I give you that
01:43:27
example is that for me that framing was
01:43:31
just such a turn off because I couldn't
01:43:32
buy into it yeah there are multiple
01:43:35
reasons the more pragmatic realistic
01:43:37
framing which allowed us to actually say
01:43:40
maybe you're right but maybe you're
01:43:42
wrong but let's not even debate the
01:43:43
issue let's just go and make sure we're
01:43:44
not dependent on another country and
01:43:46
fighting endless Wars that got me off my
01:43:48
ass to do stuff and I think there's a
01:43:49
lot of people in America that are in
01:43:51
that second category they don't want
01:43:53
absolutely emotionally riddled Dogma to
01:43:56
drive their life and how they're forced
01:43:57
to make decisions you can come up with
01:43:59
three or four really good reasons to not
01:44:02
keep burning fossil fuels they're dirty
01:44:05
they're pollutants there are better
01:44:07
options that are more sustainable that
01:44:09
are more cost effective it's more cost
01:44:11
effective to put solar in than to burn
01:44:13
coal or build a new coal plant so
01:44:15
there's economic reasons
01:44:19
we're automatically going to trust
01:44:25
I'm not blindly trusting anybody I'm
01:44:27
taking the body of evidence and saying
01:44:29
that entire body of evidence
01:44:30
geopolitical really looked at the
01:44:32
evidence I don't believe in gunship on
01:44:33
this issue okay anyway I haven't gone
01:44:36
deep on this issue that's all I'm saying
01:44:39
listen to what I'm saying if you listen
01:44:42
as opposed to telling me what I think
01:44:43
and you listen to what I'm telling you
01:44:45
there are many reasons to pursue
01:44:48
sustainable energy clean energy and
01:44:51
geopolitics is one of them and you know
01:44:54
uh polluting the environment is one of
01:44:56
them and temperatures Rising if that
01:44:57
indeed results in Damages to
01:45:01
the oceans and you know weather patterns
01:45:03
there are five or six great reasons to
01:45:07
stop burning coal and stop burning oil
01:45:09
look at these two climate whitewashers
01:45:11
we're living in In This Moment people
01:45:14
were so convinced they just needed to
01:45:16
Royal the country around the hurricane
01:45:19
hitting California
01:45:20
then by the time it landed it was a
01:45:22
storm there was rain in Los Angeles I
01:45:25
asked people here when I got here I said
01:45:26
how is Hurricane they're like it wasn't
01:45:28
a hurricane and in fact the news were so
01:45:31
tilted about it they had to call it it
01:45:33
could have been a hurricane
01:45:35
ratings second is this thing in Maui it
01:45:39
turns out Michael schellenberger has
01:45:41
done some pretty good work on this is
01:45:43
exposing that a lot of the reason these
01:45:45
fires may have started was because of
01:45:48
this radical climate agenda that caused
01:45:50
the utility to not invest in the
01:45:53
protective measures they should have
01:45:54
around power lines that is crazy Jason
01:45:58
oh yeah I'm not defending what happened
01:46:00
in Maui it's obviously incompetence we
01:46:02
should be bearing we have the same issue
01:46:04
in California which is dogmatic belief
01:46:06
there's a consequence
01:46:10
I'm not saying you are I'm trying to
01:46:12
make this point when people dogmatically
01:46:15
believe Bodies of Evidence that they
01:46:16
themselves don't interrogate fully they
01:46:19
may it may lead them to conclusions and
01:46:21
then actions that you are now seeing
01:46:23
have measurable human consequences if
01:46:25
you look at PG e in California it's
01:46:27
riddled with these issues yeah they shut
01:46:29
our power off because they're afraid
01:46:30
that wind is going to blow down power
01:46:32
lines and start fires yeah I mean and we
01:46:34
just need to bury them so so I think
01:46:36
that it would be great to like not
01:46:37
debate the climate issue put a pin in it
01:46:39
and instead just say we all want our
01:46:41
kids to be able to have clean air around
01:46:43
us we want clean water to drink and we
01:46:46
want to make sure that we have the
01:46:48
resources to be productive as human
01:46:49
beings without having to send our kids
01:46:51
to war or without putting the country in
01:46:53
danger 100 which is exactly my point
01:46:56
there are so many reasons to take this
01:46:58
serious especially and move to
01:46:59
Renewables and nuclear all right listen
01:47:00
this has been an insanely great episode
01:47:02
hey uh let me just get one person's
01:47:05
comments
01:47:06
so here's your here's your uh red meat
01:47:09
for uh Saks here
01:47:11
it sounds like there was uh the the the
01:47:13
coup
01:47:14
um 60 days later the guy who was running
01:47:16
the coup in Russia
01:47:18
had a little accident it's so Random uh
01:47:20
maybe your thoughts
01:47:22
sex
01:47:23
you're talking about burgosian yeah I
01:47:25
mean he had some mechanical difficulties
01:47:27
on his PJ I don't know what happened is
01:47:29
he not sending that citation in for
01:47:31
maintenance what happened they had a bad
01:47:32
engine or something it's so Random poor
01:47:34
guy the latest reporting from The New
01:47:35
York Times this morning is that
01:47:37
Ferguson's plane was not shot shot down
01:47:39
but rather they believe there was an
01:47:40
explosive device on it oh okay so we
01:47:43
don't know
01:47:45
you know we don't know exactly but it
01:47:46
was a bird strike something random like
01:47:48
a bird strike no no somebody took him
01:47:50
out somebody took him off the board
01:47:51
really oh it must have been it must have
01:47:53
been Ukraine right that's who you're
01:47:55
putting it on it's Ukraine no I mean I
01:47:57
think it's probably pretty obvious who
01:48:00
did it although we won't know for sure
01:48:05
listen I think
01:48:08
allegedly yeah allegedly
01:48:11
that's what you always say whenever
01:48:12
Hunter Biden's accused of doing
01:48:13
something you always have to answer it
01:48:15
allegedly there was a little cocaine and
01:48:17
maybe some bribes I think this resolves
01:48:19
the question of who came out on top
01:48:21
during that Mutiny there were a lot of
01:48:23
people speculating that somehow
01:48:25
progosian at the upper hand or he was
01:48:27
paid off right remember there was a line
01:48:30
of thinking oh this wasn't a coup if it
01:48:32
wasn't a coup then why did Putin Whack
01:48:34
Him
01:48:36
backpack
01:48:37
and it was exactly 60 days later is that
01:48:39
correct that was the other thing is that
01:48:41
gonna ask a question how funny is it
01:48:42
then it's like Putin's like paper goes
01:48:44
and come come and see me we're good
01:48:46
nothing to worry about it
01:48:50
and then it's like listen where are you
01:48:52
going to the blocks yeah you can take my
01:48:53
pj and he's like see you later
01:49:02
oh thanks for the ride free bird I told
01:49:05
you it's like Michael Corleone
01:49:07
apparently there's a meeting about a
01:49:09
month ago I remember it being reported
01:49:10
where pregosian and the other heads of
01:49:12
Wagner came to meet with Putin
01:49:14
and the deal that Putin supposedly
01:49:16
offered was that Wagner could stay
01:49:19
together but they had to report to the
01:49:21
Russian military and the Wagner
01:49:23
commanders were on board with it but one
01:49:25
person objected and that was pregosian
01:49:27
oh so it's a little bit like remember
01:49:29
that the meeting between Michael
01:49:30
Corleone and mo Green in Vegas
01:49:33
you know Michael's like think of a price
01:49:36
and mo Green's like you don't buy me out
01:49:39
I buy you one yeah that kind of reaction
01:49:41
yep and the guy had some sort of Death
01:49:44
Wish I guess you know what they say
01:49:46
beware the dog that doesn't bark Putin
01:49:49
said nothing for the last two months he
01:49:50
was like yeah it's all good nothing out
01:49:52
of the Putin camp and then boom
01:49:55
Putin is a murderous lunatic who must be
01:49:58
stopped and contained well I think
01:50:00
that's the opposite of being a lunatic I
01:50:01
think this is somebody who is very cold
01:50:03
and calculating okay yeah murderous
01:50:05
calculated sociopath he figured out how
01:50:07
to defuse a mutiny I don't think it was
01:50:10
a fullanku but a mutiny that would have
01:50:13
been very disruptive to his front line
01:50:14
if he had basically tried to violently
01:50:16
suppress it so he cuts a deal
01:50:18
where basically he offers banishment to
01:50:22
Belarus pregosian was supposed to go to
01:50:24
Belarus by the way we don't know exactly
01:50:27
why pagosian returned to Moscow or St
01:50:30
Petersburg he was supposed to be staying
01:50:32
in Belarus or Africa so maybe he
01:50:34
violated the terms of his probation we
01:50:35
don't know there were all these people
01:50:37
on social media who were pinning their
01:50:39
hopes for regime change and liberal
01:50:41
reform within Russia
01:50:43
on pregosian which was always absurd
01:50:45
because he was this warlord whose
01:50:48
behavior and conduct was even more
01:50:49
erratic and violent than Putin so he was
01:50:53
never going to be a great vessel for
01:50:55
Liberal reform in Russia nonetheless
01:50:57
they're all these people who pinned
01:51:00
their hopes for regime change in Russia
01:51:01
on pregosian we can see now what a
01:51:03
stupid idea that was
01:51:05
the Russian regime whether you like it
01:51:07
or not is stable is not unstable Russia
01:51:10
is winning the war
01:51:11
and you may hate Putin but he is still a
01:51:14
master of Russia and eventually we're
01:51:16
gonna have to deal with him
01:51:18
these fantasies that we're gonna be able
01:51:19
to regime change him
01:51:21
I think are absurd and they've led us to
01:51:24
this horrible Point okay for the
01:51:25
dictator for the Sultan of Science and
01:51:29
it's focused SAS sex with the slick back
01:51:33
hair I am the world's greatest
01:51:36
we'll let your winners ride
01:51:39
Rain Man David
01:51:44
said we open source it to the fans and
01:51:47
they've just gone crazy
01:51:48
[Music]
01:51:55
besties
01:51:58
[Music]
01:52:10
it's like this like sexual tension that
01:52:13
they just need to release somehow
01:52:19
[Music]
01:52:23
foreign
01:52:25
[Music]
