00:00:00
well you're talking about three very
00:00:01
different actors there wait David David
00:00:03
behind you is your security cameras are
00:00:05
on do you want to turn those off yeah I
00:00:06
don't know how
00:00:07
that all right hold on a
00:00:10
second you sit there and watch those all
00:00:12
day security
00:00:13
apparatus Christ what is this guy the
00:00:17
Batman he sits in that couch all day and
00:00:19
watches his security Wayne hey did you
00:00:22
see that behind him it was so dystopian
00:00:25
oh my gosh you must have caught some
00:00:27
crazy [ __ ] on those security cameras
00:00:28
sucks what do you do with that
00:00:32
[Music]
00:00:33
let your winners
00:00:34
[Music]
00:00:39
ride and instead we open source it to
00:00:42
the fans and they've just gone crazy
00:00:44
with it
00:00:48
Queen okay everybody Welcome to episode
00:00:51
150 of the Allin podcast yes we've made
00:00:55
it to 150 episodes somehow talking about
00:00:58
technology business and of course
00:01:01
politics and this week we will continue
00:01:05
our
00:01:05
discussion tragically about the
00:01:08
situation in Israel and the war with
00:01:10
Hamas and a lot of the
00:01:13
downstream effects of what's going on
00:01:16
here and try to make sense of the world
00:01:17
as we do we gave a disclaimer last week
00:01:19
we're not experts and I suspect many of
00:01:23
you are not experts on this but we're
00:01:25
going to try to talk about the hard
00:01:28
topic here and do it good faith and then
00:01:31
we will move on to topics that don't
00:01:33
have to do with the war in Gaza uh That
00:01:37
Could by the time you read this again
00:01:38
another disclaimer by the time you
00:01:40
listen to this podcast a ground Invasion
00:01:44
may or may not have started we tape
00:01:46
these on Thursdays and you listen to
00:01:48
them generally speaking on Saturdays and
00:01:50
Sundays with me again this week chth
00:01:53
poaa David saaks and of course David
00:01:57
Friedberg and uh gentlemen I'm just just
00:02:00
going around the horn here quick before
00:02:01
I tee up the first topic how's everybody
00:02:04
feeling about the events uh and in the
00:02:07
10 days since 107 in the terrorist
00:02:11
attack that occurred in Israel I skipped
00:02:13
last
00:02:14
week I was too emotional to do the show
00:02:17
just so folks know it was
00:02:21
uh
00:02:23
difficult to see what I saw on the
00:02:26
internet and the
00:02:28
reporting I think I was really
00:02:34
moved because I thought a lot about the
00:02:38
like how lucky we are and like my I
00:02:40
thought about my children and seeing
00:02:43
what I saw and being a parent
00:02:47
um it's really
00:02:49
different I remember 911 it was really
00:02:52
shocking I was really upset from 911 as
00:02:55
well but when I saw the events last
00:02:58
week it it immediately projected onto my
00:03:01
kids and the uh care I try and take for
00:03:04
my kids and thinking
00:03:06
about the experience of other people in
00:03:09
this situation I I was also I'll be
00:03:12
honest really moved and
00:03:15
saddened because of the bombing of
00:03:19
children in Gaza and I was really
00:03:21
saddened that there were innocent
00:03:23
children suffering there as
00:03:26
well and the whole thing just felt so
00:03:29
horrific to me I I don't think about the
00:03:32
justification or the morality of one
00:03:35
side over another I I was just more
00:03:37
moved because I I felt really sad about
00:03:39
the experience of a lot of families and
00:03:41
a lot of children caught in the middle
00:03:44
caught in this in this environment so I
00:03:46
was I was pretty hurt last week I was in
00:03:48
a really bad State and I couldn't do the
00:03:50
show I
00:03:52
think you know time has allowed me to
00:03:55
kind of become a bit rational about
00:03:56
things and try to understand where
00:03:58
things are headed and it's a really
00:03:59
complicated confusing situation and it's
00:04:02
really sad I I worry a lot about where
00:04:04
things are headed not just in the Middle
00:04:07
East but also domestically coming out of
00:04:09
this
00:04:11
conflict so that's where I'm at yeah
00:04:14
thank you for sharing I wasn't sure if
00:04:16
you would share um your absence last
00:04:18
week and I think it's fair I too have
00:04:21
been thinking about my own children and
00:04:23
it's uh and 911 and and it's it's very
00:04:26
dark yeah and so it's hard to talk about
00:04:30
but we're we're making progress here I
00:04:32
think and uh today we we'll talk about a
00:04:34
lot of the issues chth or saxs any uh
00:04:38
opening thoughts before we get started
00:04:40
uh delving into what's actually
00:04:43
happening and then more importantly I
00:04:45
think where this is heading and what the
00:04:49
possible outcome or resolution could be
00:04:52
if there is a resolution
00:04:54
here I think things are getting better
00:04:56
actually I think from where if if you
00:04:59
had to graph your expectations of how
00:05:02
bad things could get I think what most
00:05:05
people would probably say is somewhere
00:05:07
last week there was a scepter of some
00:05:11
potential World War III like
00:05:14
contagion and I think in
00:05:18
general it hasn't stopped some of the
00:05:21
Bloodshed but the extent to which we
00:05:24
expected this thing to escalate it
00:05:26
actually hasn't happened and so if you
00:05:28
take a step back and you kind of calmly
00:05:31
and coldly look at the
00:05:33
facts I think that there are a lot of
00:05:36
people on all sides trying
00:05:39
to maintain their composure in a moment
00:05:42
where there's a lot
00:05:44
of brush
00:05:47
fires
00:05:48
so I actually think that this has
00:05:53
been much much better than it could have
00:05:56
been and so I'm generally optimistic
00:05:59
that we're going to find our way out of
00:06:00
this so uh saaks any thoughts as we well
00:06:04
to be honest I can't be as optimistic as
00:06:06
tth it's true that World War III hasn't
00:06:08
started yet but I think the situation is
00:06:10
incredibly volatile still just the last
00:06:13
couple of days the headline story was an
00:06:17
explosion or bombing of this Hospital in
00:06:21
Gaza blame immediately fell on Israel
00:06:24
the claim in the New York Times was that
00:06:26
they had Dropped a Bomb on it from a
00:06:28
plane so media was a flame with that I
00:06:32
think in the last day or so the
00:06:35
perspective seems to be changing there's
00:06:38
video now showing that it wasn't the
00:06:40
hospital but rather the parking lot next
00:06:42
to the hospital that took the brunt to
00:06:45
the damage I think that it's far from
00:06:49
clear that Israel did it a lot of people
00:06:50
are
00:06:51
blaming Islamic Jihad in any event it's
00:06:54
very unclear so I'm going to continue to
00:06:57
do what I've done which is suspend
00:06:58
judgment until there can be some sort of
00:07:00
proper investigation of of what happened
00:07:02
and we find out exactly who's really
00:07:04
responsible but it does seem that over
00:07:07
the last day or so there's been now a
00:07:10
backing off of the idea that Israel was
00:07:12
definitely responsible for this
00:07:13
nonetheless you saw immediately in the
00:07:16
wake of that Story coming out that there
00:07:20
were protests and riots all over the
00:07:24
Middle East the Arab Street was
00:07:27
absolutely ignited and I think that the
00:07:31
Arab Street's not going to be convinced
00:07:33
that Israel wasn't responsible for this
00:07:35
I just think that they're convinced and
00:07:36
I think partisans on both sides are
00:07:39
convinced about who did it and they're
00:07:42
going to be immune to whatever evidence
00:07:43
comes out so I think that's kind of the
00:07:45
situation we're at right now I would
00:07:48
consider the the riots that we just saw
00:07:52
in regards to the hospital and the
00:07:53
eruption on social media to be a a
00:07:55
Prelude or dress rehearsal of what we
00:07:59
can expect to happen almost every day if
00:08:02
Israel proceeds with the ground invasion
00:08:04
of Gaza now they haven't done that yet
00:08:07
and that's why the situation seems
00:08:10
tenuous but stable but we're still
00:08:12
waiting to find out if Israel is going
00:08:14
to go into Gaza and if they do I think
00:08:17
all bets are off in terms of where this
00:08:18
is going this was my biggest concern
00:08:21
last week I um I think the thing I was
00:08:24
most anxious about
00:08:25
was that the
00:08:27
imagery that would come out of
00:08:30
Gaza
00:08:32
with the action from Israel would be the
00:08:36
F for escalation worldwide that there's
00:08:40
this perception already with half a
00:08:45
billion people maybe two billion people
00:08:48
maybe more that there's an oppressor and
00:08:51
there's an oppressed and the
00:08:52
oppressed is suffering under the
00:08:55
oppressor and that there would be the
00:08:57
creation of fodder to support that
00:08:58
narrative
00:08:59
and I think that the hospital bombing
00:09:01
the kind of point I made to someone who
00:09:03
reached out to me two days ago or
00:09:06
yesterday about it was I don't know if
00:09:08
it matters that we get the corrections
00:09:11
from all these people that may have said
00:09:12
something that turns out to not be true
00:09:15
because it was almost like that media
00:09:17
became confirmation bias for people that
00:09:19
already felt that this is what was going
00:09:22
on and this is simply evidence of what
00:09:24
is going on and it
00:09:26
justifies the next step it it jus the
00:09:29
beliefs it
00:09:30
justifies the
00:09:32
morality and I don't think that if it if
00:09:36
it wasn't this it's some it's going to
00:09:38
be something else there is a Tinder Box
00:09:40
ready to be lit and that Tinder Box is
00:09:43
just looking for a match and whether
00:09:44
it's this match or the next match
00:09:46
there's going to be a match and the
00:09:48
Tinder Box will be lit I think that a
00:09:50
large number of people feel like they're
00:09:53
on the right side everyone thinks
00:09:54
they're on the right side of something
00:09:56
everyone feels like they have the right
00:09:58
moral stand that there is a regime on
00:10:00
the other side that has the wrong moral
00:10:02
stance I am good you are evil and
00:10:05
therefore anything I see is my
00:10:08
confirmation bias for my belief and
00:10:11
it'll it gives me permission to take the
00:10:13
next step and in that framework it will
00:10:17
only escalate and we are only going to a
00:10:20
dark place and I think the the real
00:10:22
question for me to chim's optimism is
00:10:25
what are the muting factors what are the
00:10:27
factors where one side feels like
00:10:30
they're getting something that forces
00:10:32
them to say I'm not going to take the
00:10:34
next step I'm not going to justify the
00:10:36
next step and it's a it's a really hard
00:10:38
question to answer at this stage look
00:10:40
let's let's take that other side and
00:10:42
just explore it for a second
00:10:44
so the question that I've been asking
00:10:47
myself is and because I agree with you
00:10:50
it doesn't matter who was responsible
00:10:52
for this bombing because it's already
00:10:54
been defined yeah but in a moral sense
00:10:56
it does just no no in a moral sense it
00:10:58
does but saying practically in the
00:11:00
theater of war and the theaters near the
00:11:02
war it doesn't matter because it's about
00:11:05
how is it framed and to your point
00:11:08
people have already made up their
00:11:10
minds the pro-israel side have made up
00:11:14
their mind and the pro Palestinian side
00:11:17
has made up their mind but the question
00:11:20
that I ask myself is okay is that how
00:11:23
much of an incremental escalation is it
00:11:26
from what their status quo is you know
00:11:29
one of the interesting things I learned
00:11:32
from the Jared Kushner interview with
00:11:34
Lex fredman it's like a lot of this
00:11:38
tension you can trace back to the alaxa
00:11:43
mosque and all of the misinformation
00:11:45
around that right he spends a a section
00:11:48
of that podcast talking about how that's
00:11:50
been framed and reframed the Miss and
00:11:53
disinformation to basically get people
00:11:55
fervently up in arms and it turns out
00:11:58
that it is isn't under the supervision
00:12:00
of the Israelis and in fact you know you
00:12:03
can go get a visa to visit alaxa mosque
00:12:05
and it's under the custodian ship of the
00:12:07
King of Jordan as an example so that is
00:12:10
the fact but those facts aren't
00:12:13
necessarily shared on the ground and
00:12:16
that is where a lot of this original
00:12:18
tension comes from so then I ask myself
00:12:21
okay well if that's been lingering for
00:12:24
decades how much more incrementally bad
00:12:26
does it get for this specific thing and
00:12:30
I think you see it in people's actions
00:12:31
which is they try to use it to escalate
00:12:35
and my honest measurement of that
00:12:37
escalation is that outside of the actual
00:12:40
theater of
00:12:41
war most of these escalations died down
00:12:44
pretty quickly now if all of these
00:12:47
embassies were overrun and all of a
00:12:49
sudden you saw a Beirut like situation
00:12:53
right the US Embassy in Beirut in the
00:12:54
early ' 80s I would agree with you that
00:12:56
this is getting really bad really
00:12:58
quickly
00:12:59
but that's not what we saw and I think
00:13:01
what that speaks to more is how much
00:13:04
hatred is actually in the heart of
00:13:05
people versus
00:13:06
not and so I think that this was a
00:13:10
moment for
00:13:11
people to channel their anxiety and some
00:13:14
of their aggression and some of their
00:13:17
hatred towards America or Israel but
00:13:19
what it didn't was escalate you didn't
00:13:22
see these embassies get burned to the
00:13:24
ground you didn't see people getting
00:13:25
dragged out and so I'm not trying to
00:13:27
justify that behavior I'm just is trying
00:13:29
to look at it in an absolute sense and
00:13:31
answer the question is it escalating or
00:13:34
is it not
00:13:35
escalating and my assessment right now
00:13:39
is that it is not escalating I saw on
00:13:43
Sunday something that I thought I would
00:13:45
never see which is Iran put out a press
00:13:48
release through the United Nations to
00:13:50
Israel you haven't seen that that's
00:13:52
de-escalatory that's not an escalatory
00:13:55
action from a country whose mission
00:13:56
statement includes the destruction and
00:13:58
Dem eyes of a
00:13:59
country so I think when push comes to
00:14:03
shove there are a lot of people in
00:14:05
positions of power who understand the
00:14:07
stakes
00:14:08
here and are trying their best on both
00:14:12
sides and I I hate this word so I can't
00:14:15
even believe I'm about to use it to find
00:14:16
some proportionality and try to
00:14:18
deescalate that's how I measure and
00:14:20
judge what I
00:14:21
see over the last week a lot of
00:14:25
people use labels to characterize
00:14:29
the actions the tonality the behavior of
00:14:32
the other side because every everyone
00:14:35
believes that they're on the right side
00:14:38
and the point of view that there is hate
00:14:41
and anger on the other side comes from a
00:14:44
place not out of the blue hate and anger
00:14:46
doesn't just emerge from nothing it it
00:14:48
typically comes from a place of deep
00:14:50
hurt I think the biggest question for me
00:14:54
is how do you resolve the Deep
00:14:56
hurt that is being felt and has been
00:15:00
felt by either side over a very long
00:15:02
period of time it's the hardest thing to
00:15:04
answer because what do you give millions
00:15:08
of people that have lived feeling hurt
00:15:10
for so long feeling challenged for so
00:15:12
long that makes them feel resolved in
00:15:16
that sense and I get that speaking about
00:15:18
the Palestinian people I'm speaking
00:15:20
about the Israeli people too okay and
00:15:23
I'm I'm speaking about the fact that
00:15:25
like these actions don't they don't come
00:15:28
out the blue they don't come out of a
00:15:30
place of like
00:15:32
GRE let's go to an example in our own
00:15:34
lives let's just say that we have a
00:15:36
friend or you know we had a girlfriend
00:15:38
at some point where there is a deep
00:15:41
betrayal okay and then there's
00:15:44
just an unrelenting
00:15:47
anger to your point before you can talk
00:15:51
about the hurt you have to deescalate
00:15:53
the anger so there has to be an active
00:15:56
process of deescalation before you can
00:15:58
actually resolve this stuff I thought
00:16:00
Israel was quite clear last week we are
00:16:02
going into Gaza on Sunday but then they
00:16:06
didn't that seemed de-escalatory again
00:16:09
I'll just say it again Iran puts out a
00:16:11
press release to Israel through the UN
00:16:15
that seemed
00:16:16
de-escalatory there was a moment where
00:16:20
Jordan the Palestinian Authority and
00:16:23
Biden were supposed to meet they ended
00:16:25
up not meeting in
00:16:26
Aman but that seemed
00:16:29
escalatory Biden Tony blink Tony refused
00:16:32
to leave the IDF until he got some
00:16:34
insurances about humanitarian Aid into
00:16:36
Gaza that seems
00:16:38
de-escalatory Biden spending time and
00:16:40
then reiterating those assurances from
00:16:42
Netanyahu again all of this stuff seems
00:16:45
like both sides are in the middle of all
00:16:48
of this chaos not trying to light the
00:16:50
Tinder Box and it doesn't mean that
00:16:52
they're on a path to resolution but I I
00:16:55
I just think that they they understand
00:16:57
the stakes facts
00:16:59
when we look at the hospital situation
00:17:01
specifically and the fog of War you had
00:17:04
the New York
00:17:06
Times getting attacked for maybe taking
00:17:10
hamas's word for it then flipping and
00:17:13
then now there is conspiracy theory the
00:17:16
United States is you know carrying water
00:17:19
for Israel and then the fog of War oh my
00:17:23
goodness we maybe the the hospital
00:17:25
wasn't even hit it was in the it was in
00:17:27
the parking lot and so it it didn't even
00:17:29
get hit so when we look at all of that
00:17:32
and then shamad says hey wait things
00:17:33
haven't escalated I I actually I happen
00:17:35
to be here in Dubai right now on a
00:17:37
business trip and I'll explain some of
00:17:40
uh the feedback I've gotten from
00:17:43
people who are Palestinian uh ethnically
00:17:48
or Jordanian and of Palestinian descent
00:17:50
I should say and and we'll get into that
00:17:52
in the second the ground war hasn't
00:17:54
happened and this seems to be one of the
00:17:57
as jamaat is pointing out it's
00:17:59
fascinating that it hasn't because it
00:18:01
was supposed to have happened already do
00:18:02
you have any thoughts on why it hasn't
00:18:04
happened one of the conspiracy theories
00:18:06
and and I hate to go down these roads
00:18:08
because in the fog of War I think people
00:18:11
try to fill a vacuum and then of course
00:18:13
as you were pointing out your mouth in
00:18:14
freeberg people then use it as evidence
00:18:16
for their side the people here in Dubai
00:18:19
a number of people have pointed out this
00:18:21
uh ground war is not going to happen
00:18:23
that it's saber rattling but uh Israel
00:18:27
is going to back back down and get the
00:18:29
hostages back and this has been told to
00:18:31
me by many people and I don't know if
00:18:33
that's wishful thinking or some kind of
00:18:35
conspiracy theory but but what do you
00:18:36
take from the ground war not happening
00:18:39
and then if you want to go back and
00:18:40
touch on the fog of War issue here with
00:18:43
things flipping back and forth and and
00:18:45
what is actual reality and just broadly
00:18:48
speaking escalating or de-escalating
00:18:49
facts look I think that there's a few
00:18:52
possible reasons why Israel hasn't gone
00:18:53
in yet number one is they may perceive
00:18:56
it to be a very difficult military opper
00:18:58
operation they're almost certainly
00:18:59
walking into a trap there's going to be
00:19:01
ambushes everywhere snipers
00:19:04
IEDs Hamas has an elaborate tunnel
00:19:07
Network they can disappear down that
00:19:08
tunnel Network when the fighting gets
00:19:10
too hot they can booby trap the access
00:19:13
points they've got anti-tank weapons
00:19:15
they can take out armored vehicles it's
00:19:18
going to be a very difficult fight for
00:19:20
the Israelis and so they may be taking a
00:19:23
pause here just to assess that situation
00:19:26
and maybe get organized for it or or
00:19:28
maybe think better of it so they may be
00:19:30
either stopping to organize or getting
00:19:33
cold feet I think second they have to
00:19:35
think through the consequences of going
00:19:37
in there Hezbollah has basically
00:19:40
threatened to open up a northern front
00:19:42
and invade Israel if Israel goes into
00:19:45
Gaza you also saw as we saw at the
00:19:48
reaction to the hospital uh bombing that
00:19:52
they have be concerned about the Arab
00:19:53
Street erupting and again if they go
00:19:56
into Gaza this could ignite the whole
00:19:58
Arab world it seems to me that if you're
00:20:00
Israel you don't want to become the
00:20:02
focal point for all of this anger in the
00:20:06
Arab or larger Muslim World there are
00:20:09
important differences in that world
00:20:11
there's differences between sunnis and
00:20:13
Shiite there's differences between Arabs
00:20:16
and Persians and Turks and the last
00:20:19
thing you want is to paper over all
00:20:21
those differences by having everybody's
00:20:23
anger targeted at you so I think there's
00:20:26
very big consequences that could follow
00:20:29
geopolitically I think again the war
00:20:31
would almost certainly not just be a
00:20:33
single front war against Gaza it could
00:20:35
turn into multi-front war so that's I
00:20:37
think the second reason I think the
00:20:38
third reason is you have to believe that
00:20:40
there's Furious diplomacy going on
00:20:42
behind the scenes and I think this is
00:20:44
what chamath is referring to what we
00:20:47
don't know obviously or the the content
00:20:49
of those conversations we don't know
00:20:51
what the B Administration has told the
00:20:54
Netanyahu government we don't know if
00:20:57
they've said to to them listen we are
00:20:59
not going to get involved in this
00:21:01
publicly they've said that we stand with
00:21:02
Israel but you just have to wonder what
00:21:04
they're privately telling the Israelis
00:21:08
all of that being said I think that
00:21:10
Israel has declared that it's at war
00:21:12
with Hamas there are these stories that
00:21:15
are coming out daily of these atrocities
00:21:17
that were perpetrated by Hamas I saw one
00:21:20
by paramedics who discovered the bodies
00:21:21
and described the way they were tortured
00:21:23
the population of Israel demands
00:21:27
retribution and so Netanyahu is under
00:21:29
intense domestic political pressure to
00:21:32
deliver on
00:21:34
that so I I think that jamaath is right
00:21:37
that things haven't escalated yet but I
00:21:38
wouldn't say they've de-escalated
00:21:40
blinkin did demand and Biden did
00:21:42
announce those uh relieving of some of
00:21:45
the humanitarian issues in Gaza but to
00:21:47
my knowledge they have not been
00:21:48
implemented yet they turned the water
00:21:50
back on I believe yeah okay so I think
00:21:52
this thing is still a powder keg and it
00:21:54
could erupt and again it all comes back
00:21:56
to this key question of does Israel go
00:21:59
into to Gaza or not if they don't then I
00:22:02
think that creates room for some sort of
00:22:05
international diplomatic effort to get
00:22:07
the hostages back and maybe deescalate
00:22:10
the situation and I guess we'll find out
00:22:12
over the next week or so and that you
00:22:15
didn't even mention that there could be
00:22:16
some deep diplomacy here going on in
00:22:18
terms of releasing the hostages and
00:22:20
maybe somehow they believe if they go in
00:22:22
too
00:22:23
early the chances of getting those
00:22:25
hostages out alive could be seriously
00:22:28
diminished yeah you know it's strange to
00:22:29
me that I just don't hear that much
00:22:31
about the hostages it it seems like the
00:22:34
Israeli population just in terms of what
00:22:36
they're publicly saying seems to have
00:22:38
almost written off the hostages there
00:22:40
was some video of the families of the
00:22:42
hostages being upset that they don't
00:22:44
feel like the government response is
00:22:45
adequately taking the interests of their
00:22:48
families into account that they just
00:22:50
seem hellbent on this invasion of Gaza
00:22:54
but you know we don't know what's
00:22:56
happening behind the scenes and
00:22:58
again that that would be the way to
00:23:00
deescalate this is you get an
00:23:01
international effort to release the
00:23:04
hostages in exchange for maybe it can't
00:23:07
be stated but quit Pro quot where Israel
00:23:09
does not go into to Gaza on the ground
00:23:11
and and maybe the bombing stops yeah
00:23:14
okay so maybe we can pivot discussion
00:23:17
here to I I will say let me make one
00:23:19
other point here delving into the
00:23:21
internal politics of another country is
00:23:23
not something that we typically like to
00:23:25
do or that Americans are particularly
00:23:27
good at but when a situation like this
00:23:29
happens that could drag us into a war we
00:23:33
do have to kind of understand the
00:23:34
internal dynamics of these countries
00:23:36
Israel is a country that for the last
00:23:38
several years has been very internally
00:23:40
divided there's been something like five
00:23:43
elections in the last four
00:23:45
years
00:23:46
Netanyahu got reelected in December of
00:23:51
2022 by creating a new Coalition with
00:23:54
farri elements of the Israeli political
00:23:57
system
00:23:58
and jamath you mentioned the alaxa
00:24:00
mosque and I and I know Jared's take on
00:24:04
on this was he thought that this was
00:24:06
blown out of proportion but I'll give
00:24:08
you a different perspective on this I've
00:24:10
just been researching this if you read
00:24:12
Al jazer what they point to is a the
00:24:16
emergence of a far-right figure named
00:24:19
immar Ben gavier who has become a member
00:24:24
of netanyahu's government as a result of
00:24:26
this Coalition that was forged in
00:24:29
December and benir has been he
00:24:32
previously he was a a fringe sort of
00:24:35
anti- Palestinian far-right provocator
00:24:38
when he was 19 years old he basically
00:24:40
had somehow stolen or taken the hood
00:24:42
ornament from Yak rine the then prime
00:24:45
minister's car and was waving it around
00:24:48
saying that if we can get to your car we
00:24:49
can get to you three weeks later Yak
00:24:52
bbin was assassinated by a far-right
00:24:55
religious extremist in is Israel because
00:24:58
they felt that he had committed treason
00:25:00
by signing the oso Accords now benav
00:25:02
wasn't implicated himself but it gives
00:25:04
you a sense of kind of where he's coming
00:25:07
from and benav has led over the past
00:25:09
year several incursions into the AL oxa
00:25:13
mosque area and the reason he said he's
00:25:17
done this is to
00:25:18
show that the AL oxa mosque and the do
00:25:21
of the rock near the Haram al- Sharif
00:25:24
which is the third holiest site in Islam
00:25:26
after Mecca Medina he says that that is
00:25:29
under the sovereignty of Israel that
00:25:31
that belongs to Israel there is also a
00:25:33
faction of the Israeli far right that
00:25:35
wants to build the Third Temple on the
00:25:37
Temple Mount you have to understand that
00:25:39
that cannot happen while the alox of
00:25:42
mosque is still there so you have these
00:25:45
I don't mind saying phrases I mean to to
00:25:48
to destroy or even to imply that you
00:25:52
would ever destroy the aloa mosque is
00:25:55
such an explosive issue it would turn
00:25:57
the entire Muslim World against Israel
00:25:58
and basically I think it would be the
00:25:59
end of Israel but you have these figures
00:26:03
who've now been incorporated into
00:26:05
netanyahu's cabinet and I they are I
00:26:08
think far to the right of Netanyahu but
00:26:10
they are pressuring Netanyahu they are
00:26:12
seem to be banging for some sort of
00:26:14
religious War so you know the domestic
00:26:17
politics of another country is not
00:26:18
something that we're totally familiar
00:26:19
with but you have to understand that
00:26:20
Israel does have these elements and man
00:26:24
I hope that the Biden
00:26:25
Administration is telling Netanyahu that
00:26:30
yeah we stand with Israel but not if
00:26:33
you're going to follow the advice of
00:26:35
these far-right religious extremists
00:26:37
this is um I think a very important
00:26:39
point to to pause on here and maybe
00:26:41
unpack which is uh as I said I'm I'm
00:26:45
here in Dubai and had this trip planned
00:26:48
and um actually tell us what you're what
00:26:50
you're hearing what are you hearing what
00:26:52
do they what do people say yeah it's
00:26:54
fascinating um and it's this is going to
00:26:57
get a little touch
00:26:58
and so I just want to be clear I'm going
00:27:00
to tell people what the conversations
00:27:02
are here it's not necessarily me
00:27:04
endorsing any of these positions and
00:27:07
again I'm no expert of course and on
00:27:09
Saturday night I went to abot Mitzvah my
00:27:11
friends um daughters had their bot
00:27:13
Mitzvah and uh and Tuesday night I had
00:27:16
dinner sorry Where in Israel or no in
00:27:18
the Bay Area and then flew here and the
00:27:21
struck a position where I had dinner
00:27:23
last night with five Jordans who are of
00:27:27
pal Ian descent uh
00:27:29
and they universally are appalled by
00:27:33
Hamas and they're what happened right so
00:27:37
just say that right out
00:27:39
front and then they are perplexed why
00:27:42
there is no discussion in the West in
00:27:44
America of the conditions that could
00:27:48
have led to this and the treatment of
00:27:50
the Palestinian people who they believe
00:27:51
are living in apartheid and that word is
00:27:55
used over and over again and that they
00:27:57
have you know now a generation of people
00:27:59
who have no hope and a generation of
00:28:02
people who have nothing to lose and that
00:28:04
they they have nothing to live for and
00:28:06
this is uh the piece of the discussion
00:28:08
that has gotten a lot of people in the
00:28:10
west I think in trouble talking about it
00:28:12
we had a conference producer who uh was
00:28:15
tweeting Hey listen you know very early
00:28:18
on like on the on
00:28:20
107 Israel has to abide by you know
00:28:24
international law Etc and and this came
00:28:26
up over and over again
00:28:28
from Muslims here in Dubai that the West
00:28:33
is not and in the Free World is not
00:28:34
holding Israel accountable to Human
00:28:38
Rights standards basic standard tenants
00:28:39
of war and I was coming into the trip a
00:28:42
little bit more positive and now there's
00:28:45
such a deep hurt on both sides of this
00:28:47
that I I got to see you know from from
00:28:50
both of these events and people
00:28:51
suffering that I um my normally positive
00:28:56
outlook has been a little bit shaken if
00:28:58
I'm being honest this feels very
00:29:00
intractable to
00:29:02
me and uh yeah to even going near the
00:29:06
topic of what has Israel contributed to
00:29:10
this situation and in the treatment of
00:29:12
the Palestinian people that's what the
00:29:14
people in the region want to hear us
00:29:17
talk about or just hear the world talk
00:29:19
about any reaction to some of the
00:29:22
protests that happened in Europe and the
00:29:24
people that took to the streets what
00:29:25
what was their perspective on that I
00:29:27
think perspective is a very small
00:29:29
percentage of Americans care about the
00:29:31
Palestinian people and you know if you
00:29:33
look at the surveys that have gone on
00:29:36
and I have some of the the survey
00:29:39
data that's been done and I'm not sure
00:29:41
Americans views on this are the most
00:29:44
important views for us to be focused on
00:29:46
but a very small percentage of people
00:29:48
are aligned um with the Palestinian
00:29:52
people as opposed to with the state of
00:29:54
Israel so well I mean the biggest
00:29:55
challenge in finding a
00:30:00
towards I don't want to just be so
00:30:02
generic and say the word peace no I
00:30:04
think that's the word yeah but towards
00:30:06
some form of understanding and
00:30:07
settlement with with each other is that
00:30:09
there's a framing right now that you
00:30:11
have to pick a
00:30:12
side you're not allowed to be pro-israel
00:30:17
and also be sympathetic and empathetic
00:30:19
to the plight of the children in Gaza
00:30:22
you're not
00:30:23
allowed to say I'm looking out for the
00:30:26
Palestinians but I believe Israel should
00:30:28
have a state you're not allowed to point
00:30:30
out the fact that there are multiple
00:30:33
Muslim majority countries and there's
00:30:36
only one Jewish State while also saying
00:30:40
that what the Israelis have done may
00:30:42
also not be right you're not allowed to
00:30:47
take a nuanced point of view and you're
00:30:48
not allowed to address the variance in
00:30:52
Behavior over time with each of these
00:30:54
different sides and how there is a
00:30:56
massive complicated mess here that it
00:30:59
has to be pick your side you're
00:31:01
pro-israeli we need to wipe out X Y or Z
00:31:05
or you're anti-israeli and as a result
00:31:07
you're
00:31:08
anti-semite and the fact that we
00:31:10
conflate all of these things together
00:31:13
and force people to jump on a side is
00:31:14
what is also escalating that we can't
00:31:16
actually have conversations around these
00:31:18
topics that it all ends up being pick
00:31:20
aide and then let's figure out how many
00:31:23
people and what resources are on one
00:31:25
side and what people and what resources
00:31:26
are on the other
00:31:28
and I think that this notion that we
00:31:29
have almost a cancel culture Behavior
00:31:32
that's now leeched into this
00:31:35
discourse that if you try and talk about
00:31:38
the plight of
00:31:39
Palestinians you cannot also be
00:31:42
pro-israel is what's keeping us from
00:31:44
making progress in finding a path to
00:31:46
resolution and I I think that's the the
00:31:48
biggest issue right now and we Leverage
00:31:51
The you're not a
00:31:52
loyalist you're not moral you're not a
00:31:56
good person you're evil if you don't
00:32:01
stand on our side and both sides are act
00:32:04
that
00:32:05
way and it's that's the hardest thing to
00:32:08
change it's I think the only way to find
00:32:11
a path is to change that first and I
00:32:14
think starting with empathy is the only
00:32:16
way but man that's impossible right now
00:32:18
[ __ ] impossible yeah it's hard sorry
00:32:20
now I'm sorry I'm just I'm just super
00:32:22
like w I'm super emotional about this
00:32:23
because I just don't like the like you
00:32:25
know so there are broadly speaking two
00:32:30
factions that we're seeing out in the
00:32:33
streets either denouncing Israel or
00:32:35
supporting the Palestinians I think
00:32:36
there is a group of people who genuinely
00:32:39
hate Jews or hate Israel and do not
00:32:41
believe in Israel's right to exist and
00:32:44
are preaching things like decolonization
00:32:46
which is a recipe for for genocide then
00:32:49
there are people and probably a larger
00:32:52
group who I think are concerned with the
00:32:54
plight of the Palestinian people who
00:32:56
recognize the conditions they have is
00:32:58
deplorable and that the tactics that
00:33:01
Israel uses to enforce its security
00:33:04
whether it's the occupation of the West
00:33:06
Bank or the blockade of Gaza are
00:33:09
unsustainable and create unfair
00:33:12
conditions for the Palestinians so in
00:33:14
other words they're not saying that
00:33:16
Israel doesn't have a right to exist
00:33:17
they are principally concerned with
00:33:20
helping the Palestinians in achieving a
00:33:22
Palestinian state it seems to me of
00:33:24
Paramount importance that Israel
00:33:28
separate these two
00:33:30
groups by understanding the concern and
00:33:33
I would apply this to American
00:33:34
leadership as well by understanding the
00:33:37
concerns of the latter and hopefully
00:33:40
getting us on a path to resolving them
00:33:43
totally so as to isolate the haters
00:33:46
totally because otherwise this whole
00:33:48
thing is headed towards a gigantic
00:33:50
disaster where and I I think it's a
00:33:52
disaster for for Israel most of all is
00:33:54
that Israel could be destroyed but I
00:33:56
think think the whole world is being
00:33:57
asked to pick a side too and that's
00:33:59
where this escalates into a much bigger
00:34:01
broader conflict it's it's that yeah and
00:34:04
the country and even within the us we're
00:34:06
being asked to pick a side and now we're
00:34:07
seeing civil unrest in the US the
00:34:09
frustration as well amongst people who
00:34:12
are of who who are Muslim or who are
00:34:15
Palestinian descent or Jordanian or just
00:34:17
in the region generally is that Hamas
00:34:20
set this process back decades and
00:34:22
there's like a great frustration that
00:34:24
maybe some progress was being made and
00:34:26
that we could come to some normaly in a
00:34:28
two-state solution and that Hamas did
00:34:31
this exactly
00:34:33
because so much progress has been made
00:34:36
uh recently I think that is the best
00:34:38
theory about why this happened now is
00:34:40
that there was a process of
00:34:41
normalization happening between Israel
00:34:44
and a number of these Arab states and
00:34:46
and we talked about it last week that
00:34:47
jerro Kushner set this in motion there
00:34:49
were three or four deals that were
00:34:51
signed between Israel and the gulf Arab
00:34:53
states uh bringing about normal
00:34:56
relations and Saudi Arabia was on the
00:34:58
table as being the next one there was a
00:35:01
effort underway to negotiate a
00:35:03
normalization of of relations between
00:35:06
Israel and and Saudi Arabia that is now
00:35:09
completely on ice and at risk of the
00:35:12
other agreements maybe being ripped up
00:35:14
because if Israel goes in and has a
00:35:17
massive ground Invasion and there's more
00:35:19
suffering and death that that will maybe
00:35:22
blow all those Accords up I think that
00:35:24
what Hamas may have been concerned about
00:35:27
extent you want to impute strategic
00:35:28
logic to their decisions even you know
00:35:31
those decisions are atrocities but if
00:35:33
they have a strategic purpose in mind
00:35:35
it's to derail yeah that that process of
00:35:38
normalization because if the entire Arab
00:35:40
world basically normalizes relations
00:35:41
with Israel before the Palestinian
00:35:43
question is resolved it takes a major
00:35:47
carrot off the table in their
00:35:49
negotiations or whatever they want to
00:35:51
achieve so I think that to thwart that
00:35:54
process was a big part of the goal here
00:35:58
but I do think that what this has shown
00:36:01
is that getting to a larger Middle East
00:36:04
piece without resolving the Palestinian
00:36:07
question is likely to be a failed
00:36:09
strategy I just don't it's impossible
00:36:11
it's impossible and so
00:36:13
impossible again this does not justify
00:36:15
anything Hamas did but I think that what
00:36:17
these events have now created is a
00:36:20
dynamic where the Palestinian question
00:36:25
is now front and center and and
00:36:26
everything else is basically paused
00:36:29
until this gets resolved now I just want
00:36:32
to say something about the two-state
00:36:33
process you know again I was doing some
00:36:35
some research there really hasn't been
00:36:37
any work on the two-state solution for
00:36:40
roughly a decade Obama was the last
00:36:43
president who tried he explicitly said
00:36:45
that Israel should try to make peace
00:36:47
based on the 1967 lines but with land
00:36:49
swaps to accommodate for the changes
00:36:52
that have happened on the map since then
00:36:54
Netanyahu was very high rate at that
00:36:56
formulation by by the way he never had a
00:36:57
good relationship with with Obama
00:36:59
because of that and then John KY who
00:37:02
secretary under State under Obama made a
00:37:04
major effort to try and bring about a
00:37:06
two-state solution and frankly it went
00:37:08
nowhere and a big part of the reason why
00:37:11
is that Netanyahu said that listen the
00:37:15
only situation that's acceptable to
00:37:18
Israel from a security standpoint is
00:37:20
that we must control all security west
00:37:23
of the Jordan River so in other words we
00:37:25
must control security in the West Bank
00:37:27
and his argument was that look adjacent
00:37:30
land is very important if you create a
00:37:32
Palestinian State there where they have
00:37:34
total sovereignty over their own
00:37:36
security they could be digging tunnels
00:37:38
under the wall he basically said it
00:37:39
could turn into 20 gazes and he's got
00:37:42
his point of view and and when people
00:37:44
challenged him on this he said listen
00:37:45
you don't live here you know we live
00:37:47
here we understand the security
00:37:48
situation that's what he said to John
00:37:50
Cary so the whole process fell apart and
00:37:53
since then the idea has been for Israel
00:37:56
to move forward again on this larger
00:37:58
normalization project with the rest of
00:38:00
the Middle East putting the Palestinian
00:38:03
question to one side the idea has
00:38:05
basically been listen if you won't make
00:38:06
peace with us and this goes back to
00:38:08
Arafat at Camp David turning down the
00:38:11
deal that was on the table that Clinton
00:38:13
brokered with Ood Barack if you won't
00:38:16
make a deal with us we'll just go around
00:38:18
you you're too rejectionist you're too
00:38:20
difficult you're too hard to make a deal
00:38:21
with so we're just going to put that to
00:38:23
one side and that really has been the
00:38:26
process
00:38:27
for the last decade I would say since
00:38:30
John K's initiative fell apart the
00:38:33
process has been starting with kushan
00:38:36
under Trump and then I think Biden tried
00:38:38
to extend it by brokering the Saudi
00:38:40
Arabia deal the idea was let's put the
00:38:43
Palestinian question to one side we'll
00:38:45
work on these other deals I think now
00:38:47
that that process has fallen apart so
00:38:50
the two-state solution that process died
00:38:52
back in
00:38:53
2014 this idea of going around has
00:38:56
basically falling apart now and so I
00:38:58
think this is why people are pretty
00:38:59
pessimistic about where things go from
00:39:01
here is what is the process and
00:39:04
meanwhile you have this hard shift
00:39:05
inside Israeli domestic politics to the
00:39:08
right you've got these religious
00:39:10
factions who believe that the entirety
00:39:13
of the West Bank what they call Judea
00:39:15
and Samaria is their god-given right and
00:39:18
if you go back to the netanyahu's
00:39:19
government forming in December of 2022
00:39:23
the first plank was to say that Judea
00:39:27
and Samaria belong to us we have
00:39:28
sovereignty over them we're not giving
00:39:30
them up so what room is there for
00:39:32
compromise and since then they've been
00:39:33
expanding the settlements in the West
00:39:35
Bank let me ask you a question just to
00:39:37
shift the question for a second the
00:39:39
thing that surprised me the most over
00:39:43
this past week
00:39:45
were the extent of the
00:39:48
protests some
00:39:51
violent in the United States and in
00:39:54
Western Europe and I'm curious to hear
00:39:56
from you guys was that overwhelmingly
00:39:58
about Pro Palestine and making sure that
00:40:01
there wasn't a human rights atrocity in
00:40:04
Gaza or was that a emergence of like a
00:40:10
simmering anti-Semitism that we hadn't
00:40:12
seen well both that that's kind of my
00:40:14
point is there's type one and type two
00:40:16
type one is the true hatred it's the
00:40:19
denial of the Israeli right to exist
00:40:21
however there's a type two which is
00:40:23
legitimate concern over the condition of
00:40:25
the Palestinians and the desire to
00:40:27
resolve that by creating a Palestinian
00:40:29
State and until you separate those two
00:40:31
things you're never going to make
00:40:32
progress your type two can breed a type
00:40:35
one is the real scary reality the
00:40:38
simmering
00:40:39
anti-Semitism that you can have a
00:40:42
legitimate concern about the people of
00:40:44
Palestine because you always are going
00:40:46
to be concerned about the oppressed
00:40:48
being oppressed by the oppressor and
00:40:52
that then translates into an
00:40:54
anti-Semitism because you say that it's
00:40:56
the Jewish people that are perpetrating
00:40:58
this upon those people therefore the
00:41:01
Jewish people need to go and I've heard
00:41:04
friends of mine in the last week who
00:41:06
have said awful things like all Muslims
00:41:08
need to go well-known well-respected
00:41:11
public people have said this to me in
00:41:13
private I can see where the hatred can
00:41:16
come from a place of hurt I can see that
00:41:19
when people feel sympathetic towards the
00:41:21
Palestinian plight they can then turn
00:41:23
into
00:41:24
anti-Semitism and so I I I do think that
00:41:27
there are two distinct groups today but
00:41:29
my concern is that just like what
00:41:30
happened in the past that that can then
00:41:33
breed into a more generalized more fiery
00:41:37
and more scary situation where it really
00:41:40
is anti something genocidal on both
00:41:45
sides by the way I think what we're
00:41:46
describing here is a classic vicious
00:41:49
cycle where you start with there's
00:41:52
conditions of occupation that breeds
00:41:54
resistance that breeds
00:41:57
extremism extremism breeds fear on the
00:42:00
part of Israelis because they get
00:42:02
attacked and then that breeds harsher
00:42:04
security conditions the next level of
00:42:06
occupation or blockade and then that the
00:42:09
C yeah and so the the question is how
00:42:12
you break that cycle because the
00:42:14
Israelis right now and I'm I'm sure
00:42:16
netan would make this point if we open
00:42:18
things up if we gave you a Palestinian
00:42:20
State what's to stop 30,000 Hamas
00:42:23
Fighters if we opened up the walls
00:42:25
around Gaza what's to stop 30,000 Hamas
00:42:29
fighters from Ming us in our homes and
00:42:32
if you do a ground
00:42:34
Invasion are you inspiring more
00:42:38
radicalization and so for every person
00:42:41
you kill they've got Brothers they've
00:42:42
got sisters they've got parents they've
00:42:44
got kids they've got aunts and uncles
00:42:47
and they become the next generation of
00:42:49
extremists how does the cycle break I
00:42:51
think is the frustrating part here and
00:42:55
just
00:42:56
looking at the reaction in the US um we
00:43:00
saw a lot of discussion
00:43:04
over young students writing arguments
00:43:07
that Israel had brought this on
00:43:09
themselves and were solely responsible
00:43:10
for the Hamas attack um and this has led
00:43:13
to a massive outrage amongst donors to
00:43:18
uh Ivy League schools like Penn and
00:43:21
Harvard and obviously those have very
00:43:24
large endowments and and this is now I
00:43:28
leading to many of them pulling out of
00:43:32
commitments they've made um the Wexner
00:43:35
Foundation founded by Victoria Secrets
00:43:38
billionaire said it's breaking off ties
00:43:40
with
00:43:41
Harvard Edon ofur quit the Executive
00:43:44
Board of Harvard's Kennedy School
00:43:45
citadels Ken Griffin uh who's donated
00:43:48
more than half a billion dollars to
00:43:49
Harvard plac a call week last week to
00:43:51
the head of Harvard and asked the
00:43:53
university to come out in support of
00:43:55
Israel and then more than a dozen
00:43:57
Anonymous donors told the New York Times
00:43:59
they felt they had a right and an
00:44:00
obligation to to weigh in here and
00:44:02
before this all happened at Penn donors
00:44:05
had started pulling out because of a
00:44:07
Palestinian rights Festival that
00:44:10
happened two weeks before the events of
00:44:13
107 from September 22nd to 24th upan
00:44:16
hosted the Palestine rights literature
00:44:18
Festival the festival was buil as a
00:44:20
gathering to explore the richness and
00:44:22
diversity of Palestinian culture but
00:44:24
according to multiple sources in mostly
00:44:26
focused on Jews Israel and Zionism one
00:44:29
speaker called for ethnic cleansing of
00:44:31
Jews another said violence was a
00:44:33
necessity any thoughts chath we were
00:44:35
talking last week about these woke
00:44:36
madrasas and then I guess this is the
00:44:38
second order and third order effects
00:44:40
coming into play if you said it more
00:44:43
generically this would be a perfect
00:44:45
opportunity for these leading
00:44:46
universities to actually provide nuance
00:44:49
and teach
00:44:51
people the history of both sides and to
00:44:54
show
00:44:57
the perspective of both sides that would
00:44:59
take leadership yeah it would take
00:45:01
courageous leadership on the part of the
00:45:02
people who run the university let's just
00:45:05
be honest I think these Elite
00:45:06
universities are essentially asset
00:45:09
management
00:45:10
businesses that have an education the
00:45:13
Fig Leaf of Education wrapped around
00:45:15
them so they're more like Black Rock
00:45:17
than they are like a school and so they
00:45:20
behave like any for-profit asset manager
00:45:23
would which is that I think that as they
00:45:25
didn't try to intervene in one way or
00:45:28
the other over the last 15 or 20
00:45:31
years in actually making sure that they
00:45:34
were graduating the best kids so instead
00:45:37
what happened is they get hijacked
00:45:39
by professors and people who wanted one
00:45:43
very specific strain of thinking and I
00:45:45
don't think it matters which strain it
00:45:46
is but it betrays what the point of a
00:45:49
leading University is supposed to be and
00:45:51
then as a result the people that
00:45:52
graduate from these places are
00:45:54
close-minded and what that does is that
00:45:56
that screws America because you have all
00:45:59
of these other places graduating kids
00:46:02
with a different mindset who then go and
00:46:04
build the things that matter and America
00:46:06
just keeps falling back and we are just
00:46:09
slower and we are not intellectually
00:46:12
capable of thinking in a way that allows
00:46:14
us to see more than just what's right in
00:46:16
front of us so I don't know what you
00:46:18
want me to say it's it's just like these
00:46:20
no I'm just it's a followup to what we
00:46:23
talked about last week and so I I
00:46:25
thought was pertinent Sachs uh looking
00:46:28
at the Free Speech issue there was some
00:46:31
push back online again not my position
00:46:34
I'm just putting it out here for you to
00:46:35
comment on saxs which is
00:46:38
blacklisting young college students who
00:46:41
had an opinion about Palestine is wrong
00:46:44
and you're trying to cancel people
00:46:47
what's your response to holding people
00:46:49
accountable or cancelling these students
00:46:51
uh for their positions on the Israeli
00:46:54
Palestinian conflict well what's
00:46:56
happening now is that these campuses
00:46:59
that took outrageous positions on this
00:47:03
whole issue are now trying to wrap
00:47:05
themselves in the cloak of academic
00:47:06
freedom as if that's a value they've
00:47:08
been respecting free speech is not a
00:47:10
value they've been respecting free
00:47:11
speech is a value they've been imposing
00:47:13
and this was uh revealed by a survey
00:47:16
that was just done the fire survey that
00:47:20
surveyed students on 248 campuses on a
00:47:23
range of free speech issues so it ask
00:47:26
them about how comfortable do you feel
00:47:29
expressing your views on controversial
00:47:31
topics what is the Tolerance on campus
00:47:35
for Liberal speakers or conservative
00:47:37
speakers how acceptable is it to engage
00:47:39
in disruptive conduct against a speaker
00:47:42
on campus such as shouting them down to
00:47:44
prevent them from speaking what sort of
00:47:47
administrative support do different
00:47:48
views get on campus and how open is the
00:47:51
campus to hearing about different issues
00:47:54
and what they found was that the most
00:47:56
elite schools ranked the worst the only
00:48:00
elite private school to score above
00:48:03
average on Free Speech was University of
00:48:05
Chicago which got a score of about 65
00:48:07
out of 100 which made them rank number
00:48:10
13
00:48:11
overall the rest of the top schools the
00:48:14
IVs were abysmal Brown ranked number 69
00:48:18
Duke ranked 124 Princeton ranked 187
00:48:22
Stanford ranked 207 this is again out of
00:48:25
a total number of uh
00:48:28
248 and Penn which is where the donors
00:48:32
are up and armed ranked second to last
00:48:35
number two uh 247 they scored uh 11
00:48:38
points on the survey and then Harvard
00:48:41
finished 248 out of 248 schools ranked
00:48:44
also known as also known as dead last
00:48:47
and get this the rating in the survey
00:48:49
was 0.0 they scored a blue tarski
00:48:54
0.0 bluei in Animal House he scored
00:48:59
0.0 Harvard SC
00:49:02
0.0 Z
00:49:04
yes so so look I think it would be it
00:49:08
would be one thing if these schools said
00:49:10
to the alumni we agree with you that
00:49:13
some of these speakers were over the
00:49:15
toop but this is what academic freedom
00:49:17
is all about but they have no standing
00:49:20
to say anything like that because they
00:49:22
have been suppressing views on campus
00:49:26
speakers to be sh down they have been
00:49:28
stifling the presentation of alternative
00:49:30
views so this is
00:49:32
clearly these types of speakers these
00:49:34
types of views that I think absolutely
00:49:36
cross the line from again what we talked
00:49:38
about which is type two support for
00:49:41
legitimate support for a Palestinian
00:49:42
State into hatred of Israel and Jews and
00:49:46
denying the right to exist it absolutely
00:49:48
crossed over and many of these cases was
00:49:50
a outrageous talk given by I think a
00:49:53
Cornell professor who was was outright
00:49:56
praising this Massacre Oh God that was
00:49:59
disturbing so look it ised Cas yes he
00:50:03
was excited yeah so look I I think that
00:50:07
these alumni have a point in saying that
00:50:11
you these Elite campuses have been
00:50:13
clearly putting your thumb on the scale
00:50:15
in favor of certain views you've been
00:50:17
suppressing certain views so this must
00:50:19
be of you that you either share or
00:50:23
endorse or permit give that the rest of
00:50:26
your speech regime is so restrictive and
00:50:28
oppressive so even though I would in a
00:50:31
different circumstance support academic
00:50:33
freedom I don't think these colleges
00:50:35
have a leg to stand on all right we're
00:50:37
going to talk about some other topics
00:50:39
today because that's what we do on the
00:50:41
all-in podcast and so tangentially
00:50:44
related to the speech issues in the EU
00:50:47
officials held a meeting to discuss
00:50:49
enforcement of the DSA or Digital
00:50:52
Services act uh for some background here
00:50:54
the eu's digital Serv Service Act
00:50:56
updated the eu's electronic Commerce
00:50:58
directive of 2000 which was inspired by
00:51:02
section 230 here in the US common
00:51:04
carrier laws uh where the common
00:51:06
carriers be those AOL Yahoo Google
00:51:09
Facebook are not responsible for what
00:51:12
individuals post on their platforms and
00:51:14
so that protection's been critically
00:51:16
important not making social media sites
00:51:19
or WordPress into editors or having them
00:51:22
have to
00:51:23
censor content on their platform so the
00:51:26
DSA officially went into effect in
00:51:28
August of this year the main goal was to
00:51:31
quote unquote Foster safer online
00:51:33
environments the DSA aims to do that via
00:51:36
tighter rules around
00:51:37
disinformation illegal content and
00:51:41
transparent advertising those last two
00:51:43
not controversial that first one
00:51:45
disinformation is obviously the one
00:51:47
that's going to be pretty uh challenging
00:51:49
the DSA has been called a new
00:51:51
constitution of the internet and an
00:51:53
effort to shape the future of the online
00:51:55
online World some things the
00:51:57
DSA covers it forces
00:52:01
vops a new term very large online
00:52:04
platforms disclose how their algorithms
00:52:06
work they must give users the right to
00:52:08
opt out of recommendation systems and
00:52:10
profiling they must share key data with
00:52:12
researchers and authorities they must
00:52:14
cooperate with crisis response
00:52:16
requirements and they must perform
00:52:17
external and internal audits they want
00:52:19
to force transparency on how content
00:52:22
moderation decisions are made that seems
00:52:24
logical they want to force transparency
00:52:27
uh on the ways advertising is targeted
00:52:28
that also seems
00:52:30
reasonable and then they want ways to
00:52:32
flag illegal content obviously
00:52:35
obligations uh around uh protecting
00:52:37
minors I don't think anybody will debate
00:52:40
those but it forces them to cooperate
00:52:42
with specialized trusted flaggers to
00:52:44
identify and remove this illegal content
00:52:46
I don't know who those people would be
00:52:49
freeberg you had some thoughts my
00:52:50
thoughts are that the era of the open
00:52:54
internet
00:52:55
as a decentralized technology platform
00:52:58
for the benefit of
00:53:01
individuals and not to be overseen and
00:53:03
run by governments is over the Digital
00:53:06
Services act I think is one of the most
00:53:11
overreaching threats to any sort of open
00:53:15
transparent
00:53:17
Democratic opportunity on the internet
00:53:20
the idea of the open internet the idea
00:53:23
of creating a network of Compu
00:53:26
that could share information and make
00:53:28
services available to individuals around
00:53:30
the world freely
00:53:34
uncensored and in an easy to access way
00:53:38
was the reason that the internet has
00:53:39
transformed Society improved
00:53:42
productivity and provided extraordinary
00:53:45
benefits the Digital Services Act is an
00:53:48
example of a government seeing that a
00:53:52
decentralized technology the internet
00:53:54
itself is is meant to be a decentralized
00:53:56
technology there's no Central servers
00:53:58
they are all part of a network of
00:54:01
computers that anyone on the network can
00:54:02
access anything else on the network
00:54:04
blockchain obviously is the more modern
00:54:06
kind of exciting you know decentralized
00:54:09
technology concept that is meant to
00:54:12
avoid the scrutiny the oversight and the
00:54:14
control by Central governments or or
00:54:17
Central authorities of any
00:54:19
sort and the language in the Digital
00:54:22
Services act I think got squeezed
00:54:24
through in a way that most of the people
00:54:26
that I'm guessing passed this Digital
00:54:27
Services act don't fully comprehend the
00:54:30
implications of some of the decisions
00:54:31
that they're making it can be easily
00:54:33
framed as this is good for people you
00:54:36
cannot sell illegal content online you
00:54:38
cannot sell illegal goods and services
00:54:41
we're trying to safeguard young people
00:54:43
but the protection of minors means that
00:54:46
you can no longer do personalized web
00:54:49
experiences for anyone under 18 which
00:54:51
means you need to know the age of
00:54:52
everyone and now your web experience if
00:54:54
you're a kid is not going to be
00:54:55
personalized the overreach gets even
00:54:58
worse when they say we can now go in and
00:55:01
run
00:55:02
evaluations of the algorithms and allow
00:55:06
open access to your data to thirdparty
00:55:09
researchers to get into your systems and
00:55:11
look at how you guys are running the
00:55:12
services that you're offering on the
00:55:13
internet so not only are you no longer
00:55:15
allowed to have an open internet where
00:55:17
people can provide whatever Services
00:55:18
they want to provide but if you're on
00:55:20
the internet you now have to make your
00:55:22
service and the inside part of your
00:55:24
service available
00:55:25
foru by governments and so you have and
00:55:28
researchers who are these researchers
00:55:30
sounds like a stazzy type the way it's
00:55:32
written it gives this commission as the
00:55:35
primary regulator effectively a lot of
00:55:37
leeway in deciding who what where and
00:55:40
how they can go into companies go into
00:55:43
individual servers individual computers
00:55:46
I could run an individual company on my
00:55:48
computer at home and it gives this
00:55:50
government the legal right in the EU to
00:55:52
go into my computer and pull information
00:55:54
out of of my computer and scrutinize it
00:55:56
and make decisions about what I'm doing
00:55:58
and whether or not I'm compliant with
00:56:00
whatever the commission's enforcement
00:56:02
standards are of that day I mean this is
00:56:04
about as 1984 as you can get and it's a
00:56:07
real serious threat I don't think people
00:56:09
are recognizing the second and third
00:56:11
order effects of what this is going to
00:56:12
do over time to internet services to the
00:56:15
quality of experience we get on the
00:56:16
internet and to the role that government
00:56:19
is now going to play in policing
00:56:21
scrutinizing and providing restricted
00:56:23
access to content and service for each
00:56:25
individual that wants to use the
00:56:26
internet but it's important to say if
00:56:28
you're a European it'll just make Europe
00:56:30
even more of a place you go to vacation
00:56:31
and never to live yeah right I mean it's
00:56:34
not this we're not talking about America
00:56:36
right we're talking about Europe this is
00:56:37
all the changes that are going to happen
00:56:39
inside of Google which is going to
00:56:40
affect more than just the EU users
00:56:43
because of the requests and the demands
00:56:45
of the EU and so you know the the
00:56:47
services that you are going to get
00:56:49
around the world are going to be
00:56:50
affected by this EU compliance regime
00:56:52
and it's going to be dynamic it's a
00:56:53
commission basically a bunch of
00:56:55
individuals that get to decide who what
00:56:57
where and how that's right and that's
00:56:59
going to that's going to create a really
00:57:01
scary scary situation where a bunch of
00:57:05
people who are going to have their own
00:57:07
motivations their own political leanings
00:57:10
their own objectives they're going to be
00:57:12
able to leverage their particular role
00:57:16
in applying their particular biases to
00:57:18
internet services we saw Canada do
00:57:20
something similar and Facebook's
00:57:23
reaction and Facebook's reaction was
00:57:25
we're not going to Syndicate links so I
00:57:27
don't know I I would go back to another
00:57:29
argument you make a lot which is which I
00:57:31
agree with which is the free market will
00:57:33
act rationally here and if Google
00:57:36
deprecates a bunch of features and or
00:57:38
completely pulls out of Europe that'll
00:57:41
be the death Nowell for these kinds of
00:57:42
decisions because then other governments
00:57:45
and other people will see the cost of
00:57:47
trying to get this kind of control I
00:57:49
think the bigger issue in A Moment Like
00:57:51
This is Europe has such a checkered
00:57:55
passed on these things which is that
00:57:57
they somehow try to find this moral High
00:58:01
ground and there is just this
00:58:04
overreach and this quasi Central
00:58:06
planning that just never works and so if
00:58:09
this is another example of it I would
00:58:12
encourage all for-profit companies to
00:58:14
make the practical decision oh can you
00:58:16
imagine Google's decision making here
00:58:18
they've got thousands of employees in
00:58:20
Europe they make billions of dollars in
00:58:22
Revenue in the market it's such a
00:58:23
difficult situation to be in not if what
00:58:25
you're saying is true not if what you're
00:58:27
saying is this is the threat of the
00:58:28
internet I think it'll be very easy for
00:58:30
Larry and Sergey to say cut it move on
00:58:33
no I I Europe is too big a market for
00:58:35
Google or any other major tech company
00:58:37
to exit there's just no way what they're
00:58:39
going to do is comply there won't be a
00:58:40
market well hold on a second what this
00:58:42
new DSA rule does is apply penalties to
00:58:45
social networks for not censoring what
00:58:48
they call legal speech which is whatever
00:58:50
speech they say it is so freeberg is
00:58:53
right there's going to be some sort of
00:58:54
committee Brussels that basically sends
00:58:55
out takedown requests now to all these
00:58:58
social networks yeah it's the DSA
00:58:59
commission yeah the DSA commission so
00:59:01
yeah Europe again is just too big an
00:59:04
area not to serve and then what could
00:59:07
happen is that because it's easier for
00:59:08
companies just to have one approach
00:59:10
where they can there is a risk that
00:59:12
these same policies get applied in the
00:59:14
US that is what happened with privacy
00:59:16
remember Europe went first with gdpr and
00:59:19
then a lot of those regulations came to
00:59:21
America now the First Amendment May
00:59:23
stand in the way here but
00:59:25
there is some risk that tech companies
00:59:28
of their own accord decide that it's
00:59:30
cheaper and easier to comply with the
00:59:32
European regime everywhere than trying
00:59:34
to parse their service in different
00:59:35
markets I'm just saying that's a risk
00:59:37
but look let me frame it in a different
00:59:38
way in an economic argument okay
00:59:41
so Europe is about 25 cents of every
00:59:44
dollar of Revenue that Google generates
00:59:46
okay so if you think about that that's
00:59:50
call it 60 odd billion dollar a year
00:59:52
plus or minus okay so the the question
00:59:55
is at what point is the cost of trying
00:59:58
to get 60 billion so great that you say
01:00:01
it's not worth the 60 billion and my
01:00:05
point is that there there is an economic
01:00:07
rational argument here for it if it
01:00:11
costs for
01:00:12
example 10 or 20 billion dollars to
01:00:15
implement this stuff that's probably the
01:00:17
efficient Frontier where when you factor
01:00:19
in multiple compression and you factor
01:00:21
in Behavior change in Europe which may
01:00:23
actually degrade the 60 billion to 50 or
01:00:25
40 where you just throw your hands up
01:00:28
and say it's just not economically worth
01:00:29
it you've seen these actors make this
01:00:31
trade-off in Canada it's not totally
01:00:33
unreasonable that they run a model to
01:00:35
figure out the cost maybe they just take
01:00:37
the perspective that whenever this DSA
01:00:40
commission sends us a takedown request
01:00:41
we're just going to do it instantly why
01:00:43
wouldn't that just become the norm in
01:00:45
fact I'm pretty sure that's what they'll
01:00:46
do the management of most these
01:00:48
companies really at all of them except
01:00:50
for Elon they don't really care they
01:00:52
they have the same biases yeah they're
01:00:56
they don't care about free spe really
01:00:57
they're not Founders they don't care
01:00:58
about that Free Speech moreover they
01:01:00
have a lot of the same political biases
01:01:02
that these I'm not supporting the DSA
01:01:04
all I'm saying is I think that economic
01:01:06
rational actors will do the right thing
01:01:08
here I think the most likely outcome is
01:01:10
that tech companies will be craving and
01:01:12
they'll fold and they'll just do
01:01:13
whatever these EU Commissioners want
01:01:15
which then could be an opportunity for
01:01:17
you know distributed
01:01:19
blockchain you
01:01:20
know yeah I me it's hard to scale them
01:01:24
but
01:01:25
I the devil's in the details yeah or and
01:01:27
you guys feel this every day like Jason
01:01:29
you know you're right now in the UAE you
01:01:32
can communicate in certain ways through
01:01:34
WhatsApp you can't communicate in other
01:01:35
ways through iMessage there are just
01:01:37
rules of usability on products and they
01:01:40
exist all around the world if you go to
01:01:42
India there's certain apps that are
01:01:43
blocked and certain apps that are not
01:01:45
and so maybe that's just what happens
01:01:47
where there is just a gradient of user
01:01:49
experiences around the world for people
01:01:50
and we all deal with it yeah and we
01:01:52
don't know exactly how heavy-handed
01:01:55
they're going to be here this is by
01:01:56
definition heavy-handed I I don't agree
01:01:58
with it but hold on we don't know what
01:02:03
this is the problem with how they've
01:02:04
done this this is all being done in a
01:02:05
Star Chamber we don't have any insight
01:02:08
into what kind of content they want to
01:02:09
take down if it's obviously abusive
01:02:12
content fine but if it's you know coid
01:02:15
information or misinformation obviously
01:02:18
there's going to be a problem uh that we
01:02:19
saw here in the United States just so
01:02:21
people know resp yeah okay look them way
01:02:25
too much credit J Cal I'm not giving
01:02:27
them any credit I I do not want to see
01:02:29
this happen I'm not giving them any
01:02:31
credit I'm just saying we will see how
01:02:32
heavy-handed they'll be you're assuming
01:02:34
they're going to be super heavy-handed
01:02:36
we'll see and we'll see what their what
01:02:38
their own citizens respond I think the
01:02:40
fact that a room full of Commissioners
01:02:41
in the U can send takedown requests to
01:02:44
social media companies is by definition
01:02:46
heavy-handed let me back up what the
01:02:49
Twitter file showed okay is that we had
01:02:51
80 FBI agents being the conduit it for
01:02:54
takeown requests to Twitter and
01:02:56
presumably other social networks well no
01:02:58
no but that was all on the DL on the DL
01:03:00
exactly that was notw and yes moreover
01:03:04
when they did that in their takedown
01:03:06
requests they would always point to well
01:03:08
this tweet violates your terms of
01:03:10
service okay what the EU is doing is
01:03:13
different they're actually defining the
01:03:15
terms of service they're saying that
01:03:16
your terms of service need to do X Y and
01:03:19
Z they're doing it explicitly this is
01:03:21
not on the DL they're exp they're
01:03:25
to what we say it and when we you to
01:03:27
take something down you're going do it
01:03:30
they Haven defined what that is that's I
01:03:32
think the issue is where where is the
01:03:34
actual definition of what's going to
01:03:35
happen here and that's why it's hard for
01:03:36
us to have a discussion about this is
01:03:38
because we don't know what they're
01:03:39
talking about with this content that's
01:03:42
whatever they say in the future is
01:03:44
disinformation needs to be taken down
01:03:46
that's the framework the fine is going
01:03:48
to be up to 6% of global revenue for
01:03:51
companies that do not comply so the EU
01:03:54
has also figured out that speeding
01:03:57
tickets don't work and they're looking
01:03:59
to give pretty heavy penalties
01:04:01
so we'll see uh this is uh um a moving
01:04:06
Target here we don't have complete
01:04:07
information but yeah it's not a moving
01:04:10
Target we do have complete information
01:04:12
this is a censorship regime Jason we
01:04:14
just don't know what their term for
01:04:16
illegal or problematic content this year
01:04:19
and again I don't want I don't want to
01:04:21
be pitted as your adversary here I I am
01:04:23
not in of this so we're clear but and I
01:04:27
don't think there should be a Star
01:04:28
Chamber where people get to pick what
01:04:29
goes up and what goes down there I think
01:04:31
the private companies can do a good
01:04:33
enough job there and there should be
01:04:34
freedom of speech and yeah you're going
01:04:36
to see some things you don't like yeah
01:04:37
grow up turn change the T if you don't
01:04:39
like it it basically as they say sets a
01:04:42
horizontal rule covering all services
01:04:46
and all types of illegal content and
01:04:49
disinformation illegal content could be
01:04:51
fun right freeberg like illegal content
01:04:53
putting boxing somebody child
01:04:55
pornography illegal content I think we
01:04:57
would all be okay with it's the
01:04:58
disinformation part right I'm not trying
01:05:00
to be okay or not okay I'm just saying
01:05:01
that like you're basically saying that
01:05:03
whatever the rules are that they come up
01:05:05
with that may be different than
01:05:06
somewhere else on the internet they get
01:05:08
to then regulate other businesses on the
01:05:10
internet I think the internet should be
01:05:12
open well and there are I don't want to
01:05:14
have a commission approve what I write
01:05:16
in my blog post I don't want the
01:05:18
commission telling me that what I put on
01:05:20
Twitter or put on my website is up to
01:05:23
them to decide whether or not it's okay
01:05:25
to put up because they think it's
01:05:26
illegal because it has what they deem to
01:05:28
be
01:05:30
misinformation right ex already laws
01:05:32
that exist so disinformation illegal
01:05:34
content two different things but those
01:05:35
laws provide some authority to a
01:05:38
commissioner I mean that's the problem
01:05:39
right it's it's right look the problem
01:05:41
is in the vagueness of this the the law
01:05:44
says that social media companies have to
01:05:46
take down illegal content but it doesn't
01:05:47
say what a legal content is it delegates
01:05:50
the power to Define it to this group of
01:05:52
eurocrats led by Theory Bretton and
01:05:55
they're meeting this week to hammer it
01:05:56
out so yeah look in practice legal
01:06:00
content is going to be whatever they say
01:06:01
it is that is explicit censorship okay
01:06:05
let's move on to our final topic second
01:06:08
largest hype cycle of 2023 perhaps GOP
01:06:12
1es uh chamath you uh brought this up in
01:06:15
our group chat so maybe you could Tee It
01:06:16
Up well I was just interested in
01:06:21
understanding everything that's been
01:06:23
happening around GP
01:06:25
mostly because it just seems like people
01:06:27
think it's a
01:06:29
Panacea we have a lot of our friends
01:06:31
Jason you were the one that said this in
01:06:34
our poker group like four of the 12 or
01:06:38
13 regulars are on it is that right I
01:06:40
think it was four of like yeah four of
01:06:42
12 people were on it yeah it was a third
01:06:44
yeah and then and then I got this really
01:06:47
interesting chart Nick you may want to
01:06:49
put this up it basically
01:06:51
showed how the glp
01:06:54
One
01:06:56
Market was tracking very similar to the
01:06:59
AI market in terms of the hype which is
01:07:02
if you separated
01:07:04
companies as a basket of people who were
01:07:07
positively affected by gp1s like Lily
01:07:10
and Novo Nordisk and you had a basket of
01:07:14
companies that were disrupted by gp1s
01:07:16
those would be like Dexcom or Dita or
01:07:21
folks like that it eerily mimics the
01:07:23
same hype cycle around AI which is
01:07:26
there's those businesses that seem to be
01:07:27
feeding the hype train around Ai and
01:07:29
then all of these companies that
01:07:31
theoretically will be disrupted and it
01:07:33
just brought up to me that there's this
01:07:36
incredible market movement here where I
01:07:38
think people think that these gp1s
01:07:41
are a solution to everything and I
01:07:43
thought it was just an important thing
01:07:44
to discuss because
01:07:46
scientifically the mechanism of action
01:07:48
is still a little questionable and murky
01:07:50
on top of that I think we don't know
01:07:52
physiologically what the real long-term
01:07:53
ramifications of taking these things are
01:07:56
there's still a lot of mixed evidence
01:07:58
around the total amount of weight loss
01:08:00
you can lose the percentage of muscle
01:08:02
versus fat that you lose and so yeah I
01:08:04
just thought it was important for us to
01:08:06
talk about it and see what this would be
01:08:08
a a a baset spread trade here are the
01:08:11
companies that win here are the
01:08:12
companies that loses and look at that
01:08:14
gap between the two and it's exactly
01:08:16
mimics people who would benefit from Ai
01:08:19
and people would lose from AI yeah the
01:08:21
gp1 hype the summary is the gp1 hype
01:08:24
is as overextended as the AI hype cycle
01:08:30
so we should probably separate the weed
01:08:32
from the chaff and start by
01:08:33
understanding what gp1s are because I'm
01:08:36
sure there's a lot of people in our
01:08:37
listening Community who are on this
01:08:39
stuff they should really probably
01:08:41
understand well if that's where you
01:08:42
think we should go next we should then
01:08:45
throw it to the sultant of science
01:08:47
himself David freeberg explained to us
01:08:51
uh while we prepare our Uranus jokes GP
01:08:55
ones these drugs have been around for a
01:08:58
while they're small peptides little
01:09:00
proteins that bind to this glp receptor
01:09:04
in your gut that causes insulin to be
01:09:07
released from your pancreas and triggers
01:09:11
a couple of other hormones that reduce
01:09:14
your hunger and appetite so basically
01:09:16
gets you to eat less and your brain and
01:09:19
your brain and it's effectively a way to
01:09:21
make you feel not hungry and you you're
01:09:23
you can run a calorie deficit and when
01:09:25
you run a calorie deficit your body
01:09:27
starts starving
01:09:28
and starts burning other parts of your
01:09:31
body besides the the glucose it can get
01:09:34
out of the stomach where you would
01:09:35
otherwise have food and ends up in your
01:09:37
blood and it starts uh generating energy
01:09:40
from your stored body fat and your
01:09:42
stored and your muscle mass so these
01:09:44
have been around for a while Novo
01:09:46
Nordisk is the a developer of two of the
01:09:50
the main
01:09:51
drugs and here's a a chart of Nova
01:09:54
Nordisk stock price you can see that in
01:09:56
the
01:09:57
Last 5 Years their stock has 5x they've
01:10:00
basically gone from you know call it a
01:10:03
$60 billion company to a $350 billion
01:10:05
company in five years uh largely on the
01:10:09
the back of the promise of this drug so
01:10:10
these drugs have been around for a while
01:10:12
and there's actually one that's been on
01:10:13
the market for a long time but it only
01:10:14
causes 5% body mass loss so 5% weight
01:10:18
loss so people are like oh it's not that
01:10:19
great it didn't really get widely
01:10:20
adopted then this new class they added a
01:10:22
little side chain they added another
01:10:23
little molecule to the peptide and as a
01:10:26
result it didn't get degraded as fast
01:10:28
and it was far more bioactive in the
01:10:29
body and caused a much greater benefit
01:10:32
and so suddenly people on these drugs
01:10:33
started to see massive weight loss
01:10:35
massive Improvement diabetes and
01:10:36
metabolic Health all moves together so
01:10:38
as you burn body fat if you have less
01:10:40
glucose in your blood your your your
01:10:42
metabolic condition improves the problem
01:10:44
is when you're starving normally if you
01:10:46
were to just stop
01:10:48
eating you would typically see that your
01:10:50
body starts burning first of all the
01:10:52
glucose and then it burns off the the
01:10:53
glycogen in your muscles which is the
01:10:55
next energy store once that's gone your
01:10:57
body starts burning fat and as it's
01:10:59
burning more fat It also says hey I need
01:11:02
to get these other molecules which I'm
01:11:04
not getting just from the fat I need
01:11:05
muscle and your body actually starts
01:11:07
burning muscle and that's how your brain
01:11:09
gets energy that it needs when you're
01:11:10
starving is actually primarily from the
01:11:12
degradation of of muscle
01:11:15
tissue H so normally if you're just
01:11:17
starving yourself you'll see a ratio of
01:11:20
weight loss where it's about 20% coming
01:11:22
from lean muscle
01:11:24
mass in some of the studies that have
01:11:26
been done on these gp1 agonists we're
01:11:28
seeing up to 40% of the weight loss
01:11:31
coming from lean muscle mass uh being
01:11:34
burnt off so Jason I don't know if
01:11:36
you've done a dexa scan because I think
01:11:38
you you've said publicly that you've
01:11:39
tried it right I mean you should check
01:11:41
you should check out what your lean
01:11:42
muscle mass is versus um your fat
01:11:45
composition in your body I don't know if
01:11:46
you have it from before but I have yeah
01:11:50
yeah and this has been one of the
01:11:51
concerns obviously if you're not working
01:11:52
out and you're not you know doing what
01:11:54
you need to to eat protein and build
01:11:56
muscle you're going to be burning
01:11:57
through a lot of that muscle mass and so
01:11:59
that's problem number one that's Arisen
01:12:01
that that people are concerned about the
01:12:03
other one that's that's really I don't
01:12:05
know if it's concerning or not but when
01:12:06
people go off these drugs they gain the
01:12:10
weight back in a very quick way and
01:12:12
there's two reasons for this one is if
01:12:14
you haven't actually changed your
01:12:15
behavior you haven't changed your
01:12:16
exercise
01:12:17
patterns and and you suddenly have the
01:12:19
appetite suppressing drug taken out of
01:12:21
your system you start eating more food
01:12:23
again
01:12:24
and when you've been in a state of
01:12:26
starvation your metab your your
01:12:28
metabolism your Baseline metabolism goes
01:12:30
down so instead of burning on average
01:12:32
2,000 calories a day your body's only
01:12:34
burning at 1,200 calories a day so
01:12:36
suddenly if you go back to eating 2,000
01:12:38
calories a day because you're not you're
01:12:40
you know you no longer have the appetite
01:12:41
suppressor have you're going to
01:12:44
reinl and so so your metabolism goes
01:12:46
down the appetite suppressant goes away
01:12:48
and you gain all the weight back if you
01:12:50
haven't changed your behavior otherwise
01:12:52
and so I don't know if guys saw this
01:12:53
clip I sent out of Arnold Schwarz and
01:12:55
AER talking with Howard Stern but he was
01:12:57
talking about how like I can't do a
01:12:59
Howard accent Jal you could probably do
01:13:00
it really well but you know yeah one
01:13:02
thing you what do you think of the OIC
01:13:05
but you know how the OIC is you know
01:13:08
Americans used to be very interested in
01:13:10
working hard and I don't know why that's
01:13:12
so bad but you get up at 5:00 a.m. and
01:13:14
you work hard and you do it and you make
01:13:16
yourself strong right that's what it's
01:13:18
about you don't need to do a little baby
01:13:20
girl or Z Peck in your side oh look I'm
01:13:22
going to eat less food
01:13:25
thank you wait did you listen to the
01:13:27
clip is that is that what he said that's
01:13:28
what he said exactly what he said that's
01:13:31
exactly what he
01:13:32
Saida man make this
01:13:37
epic uh hard work that's why I say in in
01:13:42
my book you know work work your ass off
01:13:45
and because it's there's no shortcut
01:13:48
what built this country is it people
01:13:49
that SLE
01:13:51
in is it people that were wh
01:13:54
out I want to I want to be comfortable
01:13:57
no this were ballsy women and men that
01:14:00
went out there at 5: in the morning and
01:14:02
got up and they struggled and they
01:14:04
fought and they worked their butts off
01:14:07
that's what made this country great yeah
01:14:09
he he he actually he said that in
01:14:12
response to I think Howard st's
01:14:13
questions about OIC the problem like
01:14:16
like we're basically creating a new
01:14:19
multi-billion dollar pharmaceutical drug
01:14:22
system that people are going to have to
01:14:24
stay on in order to stay healthy do we
01:14:26
know what the long-term effects of
01:14:27
taking semaglutide are and can be and
01:14:30
will be I mean these drugs have been
01:14:33
around for quite a long time so you know
01:14:36
the there are various side effects but
01:14:38
in terms of like are we debilitating our
01:14:40
health over the long
01:14:42
run you know it seems to be a reasonably
01:14:45
safe drug and it seems to be a drug that
01:14:47
that folks are are kind of recognizing
01:14:49
as being well worth the cost and
01:14:51
whatever the risks may be well what are
01:14:53
the the implications you lose 40% well
01:14:57
it's about 16% of your weight loss you
01:14:59
typically lose right I mean yeah they'll
01:15:02
say up to 20% if you lose weight you'll
01:15:04
usually see up to 20% of lean muscle
01:15:06
mass of of the of the weight you lost
01:15:08
coming from lean muscle mass
01:15:10
loss and you know 80% or 85% as you say
01:15:14
coming from from body fat loss but with
01:15:16
the OIC drugs they're seeing as high as
01:15:18
40% coming from lean muscle mass which
01:15:20
is obviously concerning I just made an
01:15:21
adjustment I everybody knows I lost like
01:15:23
40 lbs or so or if you've talked to me
01:15:25
for more than 5 minutes you know I have
01:15:27
uh cuz I'll tell you and the first 20
01:15:30
was just fasting and doing keto and then
01:15:32
when this drug came out I tried it I
01:15:33
tried OIC and then I did wovi and I lost
01:15:35
next i'mna give you I didn't gain it
01:15:38
back I I I gain back about four or five
01:15:40
pounds and I also increased protein in
01:15:42
the morning and I do a lot of walking
01:15:44
okay so so let me give you this math and
01:15:46
tell me if it maps to what you have felt
01:15:48
or not so if 250 lb let's just say you
01:15:51
lose 16% of your body body weight that's
01:15:53
40 lb okay so you get to 190 oh sorry to
01:15:57
210 and of that you lose 16 pounds of
01:16:01
muscle is that what you saw or did you
01:16:03
see something less than that no much
01:16:05
less muscle cuz I use weights and I do a
01:16:08
lot of walking and I eat a ton of
01:16:10
protein you're doing the exercise you're
01:16:12
doing the exercise I'm not doing
01:16:13
hardcore exercise so but you have to do
01:16:15
exercise you have you have exercise and
01:16:17
the challenge jcal is that the vast
01:16:19
majority of people that go on the drugs
01:16:21
by the way I'm not saying the drugs
01:16:23
shouldn't be adopted I think that
01:16:24
there's extraordinary benefit health
01:16:25
benefit to the majority of people that
01:16:27
are on these drugs but the downside is
01:16:30
that if you're not exercising you are
01:16:31
going to lose muscle mass and then
01:16:33
obviously there is the fact that you're
01:16:34
now hooked on this thing if you're not
01:16:36
going to figure out ways to change
01:16:38
Behavior I cycled off of it two or three
01:16:39
times and had very minor weight gain
01:16:43
back three four five pounds but I
01:16:45
deliberately changed my relationship
01:16:46
with food portion size and I work out
01:16:49
now and what I found was as I lost
01:16:51
weight my my interest and the joy I got
01:16:54
out of working out dramatically
01:16:56
increased so running walking skiing
01:17:00
everything got easier and I just got
01:17:01
more into it so I like working out again
01:17:04
now that I'm 40 hot pounds 42 pounds off
01:17:07
my Peak weight so I I I think it's an
01:17:11
amazing wonder drve you sum points on
01:17:13
this like a take on this like you think
01:17:15
that these things are overhyped right
01:17:16
now and we're just in the middle of a
01:17:17
hype cycle or what's your key takeaway
01:17:19
my key takeaway is that for many people
01:17:20
from a health perspective I think that
01:17:22
it it could be a really
01:17:25
great
01:17:27
solution I think that these triple
01:17:29
agonists that are coming out are going
01:17:31
to be probably even more effective than
01:17:33
these double agonists that that we have
01:17:34
right now
01:17:36
yeah I don't understand the triple
01:17:39
monjaro is the triple Agonist yeah
01:17:41
people who T monjaro told me it is
01:17:45
unbelievable how not hungry you are yeah
01:17:48
it's super fast too super fast I I just
01:17:51
want to see you know like for example
01:17:53
when you know when you get older in your
01:17:56
60s and 70s one of the biggest risks you
01:17:58
take on and in your 80s is actually like
01:18:01
you know muscular skeletal and falls and
01:18:03
things like that and one of the best
01:18:04
preventative measures for that is muscle
01:18:06
mass and so you get into this weird
01:18:08
Catch 22 of you replace one issue with
01:18:10
another so longitudinally if you use it
01:18:12
for a long time I'm concerned about that
01:18:14
I do think that these gp1s if when we
01:18:16
look back on it will probably be like
01:18:19
Statin and in as much as when stattin
01:18:22
first came on the
01:18:23
Market it was a wonder drug right and
01:18:27
you know we were all teetering towards
01:18:29
you know heart disease and heart attacks
01:18:31
and all of this stuff and then once
01:18:33
people got on these statins I think
01:18:34
there was a very meaningful impact to
01:18:35
the percentage of people that that
01:18:37
suffered heart disease and cardiac
01:18:38
issues but heart disease still continues
01:18:41
to grow and you would say to yourself
01:18:43
well how is this possible because Statin
01:18:44
are effectively free they're generic
01:18:46
they're widely available um and today
01:18:49
right now because of the lack of Supply
01:18:52
the emergency have da order around these
01:18:54
semaglutide allows you to make generics
01:18:57
right now right so the cost of those are
01:18:59
not really a th000 bucks a month but can
01:19:01
be as cheap as a few hundred so you're
01:19:04
getting this widespread adoption and
01:19:05
usage I think the open question for me
01:19:09
is if human history is a guide we're
01:19:12
going to replace this issue with a
01:19:13
different kind of
01:19:15
issue because unfortunately you know
01:19:17
maybe people take it and then they
01:19:19
physiologically adapt and then they just
01:19:21
continue to eat the same or more because
01:19:23
they think wow this is a get out of jail
01:19:24
free card for me and maybe they
01:19:27
overpower that sa that that that gp1 is
01:19:30
supposed to give you I don't know I find
01:19:33
it from a sort of public societal Health
01:19:36
perspective really interesting from an
01:19:39
economic Market perspective I think that
01:19:42
these things are priced to Perfection
01:19:44
it's kind of like Nvidia which is like
01:19:46
right
01:19:48
people everything people are assuming
01:19:51
everything is going to work it's a tough
01:19:52
point in the cycle to be a buyer I think
01:19:54
as as an economic actor but as if you're
01:19:57
making a trade that seems like a hard
01:19:58
trade to make and just to give even some
01:20:01
more color to it noo Nordisk announced
01:20:05
that it was halting its OA kidney
01:20:07
disease trial early well Nick show this
01:20:09
because it was so conclusive yeah I mean
01:20:11
if that sparked a $3.6 billion selloff
01:20:15
in shares of dialysis providers I mean
01:20:18
remember over 40% of Americans are
01:20:20
clinically obese it's a sorry almost %
01:20:23
now it's an extraordinary Health
01:20:24
epidemic in the United States and you
01:20:26
know if this drug can have this sort of
01:20:28
an effect it can reduce cost across the
01:20:29
healthare system so you know there is
01:20:31
still a I mean chim's point I don't
01:20:34
right number this affects cardiovascular
01:20:36
disease diabetes kidney disease liver
01:20:41
disease do does an average 16% weight
01:20:45
loss reduction actually get people from
01:20:47
obesity to un obesity or are they still
01:20:50
are they still obese the obes trial
01:20:53
seemed to I mean remember you have to
01:20:55
get FDA approval for a particular so
01:20:57
this is this is what Jason was
01:20:58
mentioning so this is this is a basket
01:21:00
that Morgan Stanley created which was
01:21:03
essentially starting at the beginning of
01:21:05
the year when the hype was really
01:21:07
starting to get out of control Morgan
01:21:10
Stanley created a basket of the glp1
01:21:11
winners and a basket of the G gp1
01:21:14
potentially disrupted Healthcare stocks
01:21:16
so you could trade them off against each
01:21:18
other and this just shows how it's
01:21:19
performed which is just a blockbuster
01:21:21
trade in the last 10 months so if you if
01:21:24
you went long the glp1 winners and short
01:21:26
these potenti potentially disrupted it's
01:21:30
I mean I've never seen a spread trade
01:21:31
payoff like this in such a short period
01:21:33
of time 80 80% a year in less
01:21:35
unbelievable the nature of creating
01:21:38
would you take the other side of this
01:21:39
trade right now or like how do you I
01:21:40
would I would re and the reason is
01:21:43
because of two two two practical factors
01:21:47
one is that when when a when a market
01:21:50
gets this exaggerated what your price
01:21:52
ing in is essentially like a Panacea
01:21:54
solution that and those tend to not
01:21:56
really be realistic and again I would
01:21:58
point to statens as a good example of
01:22:00
that and so there's a part of it which
01:22:02
is just like these trades are so
01:22:04
overextended that you can probably
01:22:06
pretty be pretty safe on the other side
01:22:08
and then the second part is that I don't
01:22:10
think we really understand
01:22:12
yet the other half of the coin which is
01:22:15
you know for every one of us that's
01:22:18
generally positively inclined around
01:22:20
gp1s who isn't getting enough attention
01:22:23
right now are the doctors who spending a
01:22:25
lot of time researching researching this
01:22:27
stuff who may actually have a
01:22:29
perspective on the other side you know
01:22:31
probably the most prominent one like Bob
01:22:33
lusting so you have to give that a
01:22:37
little bit of time for it to play out
01:22:38
because nobody wants to hear the bease
01:22:40
on
01:22:41
gp1s as a drug that people
01:22:44
take so I I would just say that it's
01:22:46
it's probably again when you see an
01:22:49
economic trade like this it's it's it's
01:22:51
probably okay to be on the other side of
01:22:53
it and then just from a public health
01:22:55
perspective you know take a weight and
01:22:57
see but for a lot of people who are
01:22:59
clinically obese it doesn't seem like
01:23:01
the math is such that if you're at a BMI
01:23:04
of 30 reducing your weight 16% I think
01:23:07
gets you to like a 26 it doesn't get you
01:23:09
under the I think it's meaningful I
01:23:11
think it's meaningful no no no I'm not
01:23:12
saying it's not meaningful I'm saying it
01:23:13
does it it you're still obese yeah I
01:23:16
think the the key thing and I don't want
01:23:18
to give medical advice but I think you
01:23:21
need to do this holistically so you got
01:23:22
to keep your diet and you got to keep
01:23:23
working out in mind when you do it that
01:23:25
should be fairly obvious and those are
01:23:27
always good things to do is you plan to
01:23:28
take it your whole life in spts jcal or
01:23:31
how do you how do you view it no I'm
01:23:32
five pounds from my lowest weight as an
01:23:34
adult and my the weight I used to be
01:23:35
when I ran marathons and so my plan is
01:23:37
to come off of it like by the end of
01:23:40
this year and then and I had taken like
01:23:43
six months off twice doing this so I did
01:23:46
it like in Little intentional
01:23:48
Sprints Sprints yeah just to to get
01:23:51
where I wanted to be and this last five
01:23:54
uh this last five pound what is your do
01:23:57
you have a sense of if your behavior
01:24:02
changes when you're on and you're off
01:24:04
like do you do you I I do feel more
01:24:07
hungry but then I remember
01:24:10
how bad I felt when I was overweight and
01:24:13
then I just weigh myself every day and
01:24:15
if I see myself get above a certain
01:24:17
number I consider that like a red alert
01:24:19
and I just you know either start fasting
01:24:21
working out or just eating super healthy
01:24:23
so it's just the discipline of weighing
01:24:25
myself every day that I've gotten
01:24:28
into and just understanding hey you know
01:24:30
if I make two or three bad decisions
01:24:33
you're not going to make two or three
01:24:34
bad decisions when you're on these drugs
01:24:35
in my experience because you feel so
01:24:36
bloated and so painful when you overeat
01:24:39
that you don't want to do it so it's
01:24:40
really it's really like it hurts you
01:24:42
feel distended and you know there are
01:24:44
reports and it did happen to me twice
01:24:46
over two or three years of doing this
01:24:48
that if you take it and you eat too much
01:24:50
you you could get sick and actually
01:24:51
vomit so
01:24:53
it some people just don't have the
01:24:54
stomach for it I think a lot of people
01:24:56
just tap out it it makes their stomachs
01:24:57
feel too distended or uh gnarly and that
01:25:01
and that's why the dosage actually
01:25:03
really matters they have dosages that
01:25:04
are like a very wide range maybe 10x uh
01:25:08
and so the dosage getting that right
01:25:10
working with your doctor is
01:25:11
key but yeah I'm just I'm excited to get
01:25:13
off of because I want to really start
01:25:15
sincerely weightlifting so I'm getting a
01:25:17
a personal trainer to do like
01:25:18
weightlifting twice a week and get
01:25:20
really into that next because you can't
01:25:23
do hardcore intense working out with us
01:25:25
because you're you know just lower calor
01:25:28
but I think it's a miracle drug um and
01:25:30
I'm I'm excited about it the one
01:25:31
question I had for you on the spread
01:25:32
trade uh before we end Jam does the
01:25:35
nature of making those indexes and
01:25:37
giving people the ability to put the
01:25:39
trade on exacerbate the trade because
01:25:41
then I saw everybody was tweeting about
01:25:43
this you know over the last week does
01:25:45
the nature of an index being made impact
01:25:48
the the the the action stocks you know
01:25:51
Morgan is particularly good at these
01:25:53
basket creations and they tend to make
01:25:55
it for their biggest hedge fund clients
01:25:57
and their richest families so it tends
01:25:59
to be pretty isolated they they they
01:26:02
give an edge to a few folks that so
01:26:04
these things are not broadly
01:26:07
published and so I I doubt it in the end
01:26:09
but so they come up with this idea how
01:26:11
many in how many names are in each index
01:26:13
it all just depends like and and they're
01:26:15
very smart about you know being able to
01:26:17
create these on the Fly based on what
01:26:19
themes they're seeing and then like I
01:26:21
said they share them with their best
01:26:23
hedge fund clients and their and their
01:26:24
and their biggest families they don't
01:26:26
they don't trade you know they don't
01:26:27
share them with us I I I got it Jason
01:26:29
one that I told you like at the end of
01:26:31
all of that at the end of that graph
01:26:32
after everybody put the trade on and got
01:26:34
the win they're like let's get
01:26:36
Shan but uh so they they didn't actually
01:26:39
share it with me in January I wish they
01:26:41
did all right listen we got to wrap up
01:26:42
great show boys uh and we're praying for
01:26:45
peace and the return of the hostages for
01:26:48
the sulan of science the dictator and
01:26:50
the Rainman yeah David a I am the
01:26:53
world's greatest mon we'll see you at
01:26:55
episode 151 enjoy the 150 fan meetups
01:26:58
this weekend anybody who's going to Love
01:27:00
You by
01:27:02
love let your winners
01:27:09
ride and instead we open source it to
01:27:12
the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:27:13
with it love queen
01:27:16
[Music]
01:27:21
of
01:27:23
besties
01:27:25
are that's my dog taking
01:27:30
driveways oh man myit meet me we should
01:27:34
all just get a room and just have one
01:27:35
big huge orgy cuz they're all this
01:27:37
useless it's like this like sexual
01:27:38
tension but they just need to release
01:27:40
[Music]
01:27:46
Som we need to get merch
01:27:51
our
01:27:56
I'm going all
01:27:58
[Music]
01:28:00
in
