00:00:00
There's mention of Greenland being
00:00:01
invaded by the United States. There's
00:00:03
the situation in Iran. Trump has
00:00:06
snatched Maduro from Venezuela. There's
00:00:07
talk of China taking back Taiwan. What
00:00:10
the hell is going on?
00:00:11
>> Well, what you're seeing is the West
00:00:13
becoming weaker and embolding our
00:00:15
enemies and the final collapse of a
00:00:17
shared myth that we were living in a
00:00:19
structured world where everything is
00:00:20
done according to the rules. That is now
00:00:23
gone. And Trump is acting in recognition
00:00:26
of that reality, saying we are not going
00:00:28
to play by the fake rules anymore that
00:00:30
no one else is playing by. Anyway,
00:00:31
>> is there a risk with this strategy?
00:00:33
>> Of course. And we can talk about the
00:00:34
reasons for it. I think it's really
00:00:36
important.
00:00:36
>> The floor is yours.
00:00:38
>> Constantine Kissen is one of the
00:00:39
sharpest voices in political commentary
00:00:42
right now.
00:00:43
>> He's here to unpack the current
00:00:44
geopolitical landscape and what could be
00:00:47
done to salvage the West before it's too
00:00:49
late.
00:00:49
>> So, Russia invading Ukraine was not an
00:00:51
accident. It was a consequence of the
00:00:53
fact that Putin felt this was the moment
00:00:55
to test the waters. Can we now do the
00:00:57
things we've always wanted to do?
00:00:59
Because the West lost its focus and
00:01:02
sense of purpose. So, for example, I
00:01:04
don't know if you know this, Europe is
00:01:06
12% of the world's population, 25% of
00:01:08
the world's GDP, and 60% of the world's
00:01:10
welfare spending. Germany destroyed its
00:01:12
nuclear facilities, thereby making
00:01:14
itself reliant on Russian gas. And in
00:01:16
Britain, we've destroyed our
00:01:17
manufacturing, which is now produced
00:01:19
elsewhere. and we've run down our armed
00:01:20
forces because we have felt so safe and
00:01:22
so comfortable because there's been no
00:01:24
consequence. Well, the consequences are
00:01:27
here per person. We have less money
00:01:29
today than we did 20 years ago. We have
00:01:31
the highest tax burden in peace time
00:01:32
history. We're driving out the
00:01:34
entrepreneurs and we've already seen a
00:01:36
decline in our power in the world and
00:01:37
our influence in the world. That's the
00:01:39
big danger. But there is an opportunity
00:01:40
to turn things around if we can make
00:01:42
these big decisions. What are you
00:01:44
hopeful?
00:01:52
>> Listen, my my team gave me a script that
00:01:53
they asked me to read, but I'm just
00:01:55
going to ask you um in the nicest way I
00:01:57
possibly can. Thank you first and
00:01:59
foremost for choosing to subscribe to
00:02:00
this channel. It is um it's been one of
00:02:01
the most incredible crazy years of my
00:02:03
life. I never could have imagined. I had
00:02:05
so many dreams in my life, but this was
00:02:07
not one of them. And the very fact that
00:02:09
these conversations have resonated with
00:02:10
you and you've given me so much feedback
00:02:11
is something I will always be
00:02:12
appreciative of. And I almost carry away
00:02:14
a sort of burden of uh responsibility to
00:02:17
pay you back. And the favor I would like
00:02:19
to ask from you today is to subscribe to
00:02:21
the channel if you um would be so
00:02:22
obliged. It's completely free to do
00:02:24
that. Roughly about 47% of you that
00:02:26
listen to this channel frequently
00:02:28
currently don't subscribe to this
00:02:29
channel. So if you're one of those
00:02:30
people, please come and join us. Hit the
00:02:32
subscribe button. It's the single free
00:02:33
thing you can do to make this channel
00:02:34
better. And every subscriber sort of
00:02:37
pays into this show and allows us to do
00:02:38
things bigger and better and to push
00:02:40
ourselves even more. And I will not let
00:02:42
you down if you hit the subscribe
00:02:43
button. I promise you. And if I do,
00:02:44
please do unsubscribe, but I promise I
00:02:46
won't. Thank you,
00:02:50
Constantine.
00:02:52
There is so much going on in the world
00:02:54
right now that it is incredibly
00:02:56
confusing to somebody like me who
00:02:58
doesn't spend a lot of time thinking
00:03:00
about geopolitics or the bigger picture.
00:03:02
I'm very very heads downstand as I
00:03:04
imagine a lot of people in my audience
00:03:05
are. We kind of get on with our lives.
00:03:06
But every time we look up at the news,
00:03:08
there's Trump has snatched Maduro from
00:03:11
Venezuela. There's the war with Russia
00:03:14
and Ukraine. There's something going on
00:03:16
with Iran. There's mention of Greenland
00:03:18
being invaded by the United States.
00:03:20
There's talk of China taking back
00:03:22
Taiwan. I wanted to speak to you today
00:03:25
to understand your perspective on the
00:03:27
bigger picture here.
00:03:29
>> What the hell is going on?
00:03:31
Well, what you're seeing is the the
00:03:34
final collapse of what people have
00:03:35
described as the postworld war II order,
00:03:37
which then became the post Soviet
00:03:39
collapse order. So, if you think about
00:03:42
1945, World War II finishes and the Cold
00:03:45
War begins. So, you go from World War II
00:03:49
to two big major players in the world
00:03:52
competing for dominance. And that lasts
00:03:55
until 1991 when the Soviet Union
00:03:57
collapses at which point you get the
00:03:59
uniolar world in which there's only one
00:04:01
hedgeimonyy, only one country that's
00:04:02
really setting the terms of what's
00:04:04
happening in the world. The west lost
00:04:06
its focus and its sense of purpose in
00:04:10
1991 because we were like, well, we we
00:04:13
defeated our great rival, communism,
00:04:15
Soviet, Russia, etc. And then we kind of
00:04:18
didn't really know what to do and we
00:04:20
took eye off the ball. And what's
00:04:22
happening now is that entire framework
00:04:25
that we have had since World War II is
00:04:27
disintegrating very rapidly. This is why
00:04:30
you know in in light of recent events
00:04:32
and the the Maduro situation you hear a
00:04:35
lot of people talk about international
00:04:36
law. International law was I don't know
00:04:39
if you if you ever had you will know
00:04:41
Harrari on your show. I have yet to
00:04:43
wrote the book book called Sapiens in
00:04:44
which he talks about the fact that
00:04:46
almost everything that we live in the
00:04:49
world in in which we exist is a kind of
00:04:52
shared myth that we have and laws and
00:04:55
money and all these things. They are
00:04:56
agreements that we have between us to
00:04:59
make things real that are not real.
00:05:01
Money isn't real. That piece of paper
00:05:03
has no value in your pocket really
00:05:06
outside of the fact that other people
00:05:07
have got together and agreed that it's
00:05:09
money. Right. Well, international law
00:05:12
really was that, but even weaker than
00:05:13
that. Because if you think about what a
00:05:15
law is, a law is something that has to
00:05:17
be backed by not only the consent of the
00:05:20
people who are involved, but also
00:05:22
ultimately it's about the use of force,
00:05:24
the legitimate use of force. Now, for
00:05:26
international law, there's never been
00:05:29
anything that could enforce that law
00:05:32
other than the most powerful country in
00:05:33
the world, right? So if China invades
00:05:36
Taiwan, no one's going to do anything
00:05:38
about it because there is no overarching
00:05:40
authority with the military to be able
00:05:42
to do anything about it. And so that
00:05:45
shared fiction that we had which we were
00:05:48
living in a structured world in which
00:05:50
everything is done according to the
00:05:52
rules, the rules-based order. You might
00:05:54
have heard that term being used. That is
00:05:56
now gone. And Trump is acting in
00:06:00
recognition of that reality. and he's
00:06:02
saying, well, given that it's sort of
00:06:05
every man for himself now, I'm going to
00:06:07
do what's in the interest of the United
00:06:08
States. Is it in the interest of the
00:06:10
United States, for example, to have an
00:06:12
openly hostile leader of a country close
00:06:15
to the US, which is so destabilized that
00:06:19
7 million people have fled as refugees?
00:06:21
>> Venezuela.
00:06:21
>> Venezuela. Is it in our interest to have
00:06:24
this person cozying up to Russia and
00:06:26
China? Is it in our interest to allow
00:06:28
him to have Hezbollah training camps on
00:06:30
the island of Margarita? Is it in our
00:06:32
interest? It's going back to the Monroy
00:06:34
doctrine, the idea that America does not
00:06:36
allow foreign nations to meddle in its
00:06:38
backyard, so to speak. And so what he's
00:06:41
doing now is going, "Well, look, this is
00:06:42
the world we live in. I'm going to do
00:06:44
what's best for my country." And I think
00:06:46
that's what you're seeing.
00:06:48
>> Is there a risk with this strategy?
00:06:50
>> Of course, there's a risk with every
00:06:52
strategy. Of course, there's a risk with
00:06:53
this strategy. There was a big risk
00:06:55
inevitably with this strategy and I
00:06:57
think you know as I talked about in my
00:06:59
book the the west becoming weaker and
00:07:02
emboldening our enemies which is what we
00:07:04
have done for a long time now is
00:07:06
creating an environment where we are
00:07:08
opening ourselves up to challenge from
00:07:10
other forces. Russia invading Ukraine
00:07:12
was not an accident. It was not an
00:07:14
accident. It was a consequence of the
00:07:16
fact that Putin and other people in his
00:07:20
leadership team felt this was the moment
00:07:22
to test the waters. Can we now do the
00:07:25
things we've always wanted to do
00:07:27
>> and they felt they could do that under
00:07:28
Biden in your view?
00:07:29
>> Yes. But see, I wouldn't personalize it
00:07:32
down to that level. I think far too many
00:07:34
people get carried away with, you know,
00:07:36
Republican, Democrat, left, right,
00:07:38
Biden, Trump. It's an ongoing process
00:07:40
that's been going on for decades. And
00:07:43
the culmination of it was first the
00:07:45
invasion of Ukraine, then October 7th.
00:07:47
October 7th was not an accident either.
00:07:49
Hamas backed by Iran felt that this was
00:07:52
their moment to act because again is the
00:07:55
West going to be able to respond
00:07:57
morally, militarily, and in other ways
00:07:59
powerfully to that. They felt that they
00:08:01
were able to test it. The fact that
00:08:03
China now is openly talking about taking
00:08:05
Taiwan is again another symptom of this
00:08:08
same thing. So the risk is there and of
00:08:11
course the risk as well is that you know
00:08:14
the the crumbling western alliance we
00:08:16
can talk about the reasons for it. I
00:08:17
think it's really important to
00:08:18
particularly we're recording this in
00:08:20
Britain and and in Europe more broadly.
00:08:22
I think that's an important
00:08:23
conversation. The western alliance is
00:08:25
falling apart. Um and that is always
00:08:27
going to be a risk. It's particularly
00:08:29
big risk for Europe. I feel
00:08:31
>> how much of this and before we go into
00:08:32
the details and just catch up on a few
00:08:34
of the things you said there. How much
00:08:35
of this is linked to nuclear weapons?
00:08:37
Because I was thinking I I can't really
00:08:39
All of these superpowers are going for
00:08:41
countries that aren't armed with nuclear
00:08:43
weapons.
00:08:44
>> And it all it somewhat feels to me that
00:08:46
the reason why the US wouldn't get
00:08:49
involved if China took Taiwan is because
00:08:51
they have nukes. And the reason why
00:08:54
the US is a little bit intimidated by
00:08:56
Russia is because they have nukes. So is
00:08:58
it really the world is splitting into
00:09:00
nuclear powers and anyone with nukes can
00:09:02
do what the they want because they
00:09:04
can basically wipe out planet Earth if
00:09:06
they get angry. And that has always been
00:09:07
the case except we've been constrained
00:09:10
by the framework of the rules-based
00:09:12
order. But that got taken apart. And
00:09:15
this is where I think the West and the
00:09:16
United States including needs to take
00:09:18
responsibility because the the war in
00:09:20
Afghanistan and Iraq even more so
00:09:23
completely undermined our moral
00:09:25
credibility. You know, how can you say,
00:09:28
well, Russia isn't allowed to invade
00:09:29
Ukraine if you go around invading
00:09:31
countries on a whim, making up excuses
00:09:33
and reasons to do that. So we have
00:09:35
eroded our moral authority and we've
00:09:38
also eroded our military strength and
00:09:40
the potential that we have to inflict
00:09:42
damage on people who misbehave so to
00:09:44
speak. So both of those things have come
00:09:46
together.
00:09:47
>> It seems so crazy to me that in my
00:09:50
lifetime I'm I'm seeing cuz it's really
00:09:51
never happened in the 33 years that I've
00:09:53
been alive. I'm hearing a US president
00:09:55
talk about kidnapping another president
00:09:58
and then going in and taking the oil.
00:10:00
And then you know what? We might take
00:10:02
Greenland as well. We might have that
00:10:03
big country over there as well. Even
00:10:05
though it belongs to a NATO ally in
00:10:07
Denmark,
00:10:08
>> it it feels like something has
00:10:10
fundamentally changed.
00:10:11
>> It has.
00:10:11
>> And I'm scared of the presidents this is
00:10:13
going to set because do we then all just
00:10:15
get to start taking countries we want?
00:10:17
>> Well, this is what happens when there is
00:10:20
a a a a shifting of the balance of
00:10:22
power. This is why I always said
00:10:24
maintaining the unipolar moment as it
00:10:27
was and not allowing the west to weaken
00:10:28
itself was a really important thing
00:10:30
because the moment you have a power
00:10:32
vacuum, you always have a power
00:10:34
struggle. Mexico is a very good example
00:10:37
of this. If you look at what's been
00:10:38
happening, there's been a a gigantic
00:10:40
drug war in Mexico for the last 20 years
00:10:43
because there are different cartels
00:10:44
vying for power. And the moment you take
00:10:47
out the leader of one cartel or
00:10:49
something happens, there's a bloodbath.
00:10:51
Because this is what happens when the
00:10:53
central authority, the central power,
00:10:55
the the current system breaks down. You
00:10:58
inevitably end up in a much more
00:10:59
violent, much more unstable, much more
00:11:01
unpredictable place. And all Trump
00:11:03
really is doing is reflecting the
00:11:06
reality that has been already there for
00:11:08
years, except he's reflecting in
00:11:10
American foreign policy. He's saying,
00:11:12
"Well, look, if Russia is going to do
00:11:14
what it wants to do, and we can't stop
00:11:16
them, and if China is going to do what
00:11:17
they want to do, and we can't stop them,
00:11:19
well, we've got to do what we've got to
00:11:21
do, and no one's going to stop us." And
00:11:23
that's the world you've ended up in. And
00:11:25
by the way, just on the nuclear point, I
00:11:26
think it's important to say you're 100%
00:11:29
right. And this is one of the things
00:11:30
I've always said about not supporting
00:11:32
Ukraine properly, which we haven't done.
00:11:35
we have not supported them enough to be
00:11:37
able to actually fully repel the
00:11:39
aggression from Russia is it would
00:11:40
inevitably lead to lots of other small
00:11:42
countries pursuing nuclear weapons
00:11:44
because it is the only guarantee of
00:11:45
security in this world. it that is a
00:11:48
huge danger for the world in terms of
00:11:50
nuclear proliferation because if the
00:11:52
precedent is like you say the people
00:11:55
with nuclear weapons can do what they
00:11:57
want and they can never be attacked and
00:11:58
the people with no nuclear weapons are
00:12:00
vulnerable and weak what would be the
00:12:02
most rational thing for you to do if
00:12:04
you're a smaller country that's the big
00:12:06
danger
00:12:07
>> cuz you know you were talking about a
00:12:09
uniolar world and a multi-polar world
00:12:10
but I wonder if the it's going to be how
00:12:12
many nuclear powers are there there's
00:12:14
like nine or or 10
00:12:16
>> if the world is going to split into
00:12:17
these 10 nuclear powers and these 10
00:12:19
nuclear powers can basically do what
00:12:20
they want.
00:12:22
>> Well, nuclear powers are different. I
00:12:23
don't I don't see Pakistan likely to be
00:12:25
rampaging through its neighbors, not at
00:12:27
least cuz they're all they're all
00:12:29
nuclear powers themselves. Uh I think
00:12:31
you're you're talking about Russia,
00:12:32
China, and the US primarily. I don't see
00:12:35
Britain, you know, reinvading France,
00:12:37
although that's something obviously I'm
00:12:38
in favor of. If Pakistan decided to take
00:12:40
a neighboring country though,
00:12:41
>> nobody can really come for them because
00:12:43
>> uh economic
00:12:44
>> having one nuke is not the same as
00:12:46
having a gigantic nuclear arsenal. I
00:12:48
think Pakistan is relatively constrained
00:12:49
in its behavior, but the big superpowers
00:12:52
are not. So,
00:12:53
>> by the way, retaking France was a joke.
00:12:56
I just want to make that clear.
00:12:58
>> And there's eight there's nine nuclear
00:13:00
powers. United States, Russia, UK,
00:13:02
France, China, India, Pakistan, North
00:13:04
Korea, and Israel. Although I don't
00:13:06
think they admit it.
00:13:07
>> Yeah. Israel's policy on nuclear weapons
00:13:09
is very funny. Do you know what the
00:13:10
official position is? We don't have
00:13:12
nuclear weapons, but if the state of
00:13:14
Israel is at risk of being destroyed, we
00:13:17
will definitely use them.
00:13:20
>> So, how did we get here? What are what
00:13:23
are the factors at play that brought us
00:13:24
to this particular situation? You talked
00:13:25
about the crumbling of the Western
00:13:26
Alliance and other things. What what do
00:13:28
we need to know about what happened for
00:13:29
us to get to this state where it seems
00:13:31
like it's every big power for themsel?
00:13:34
>> Well, partly we've already talked about
00:13:35
it. So it's it's after 91 in particular
00:13:38
the west loses its not only its sense of
00:13:41
purpose but it loses its its sense of
00:13:44
danger and sense of risk. So we get very
00:13:46
comfortable. I don't know if you know
00:13:47
this uh Europe is 12% of the world's
00:13:50
population, 25% of the world's GDP and
00:13:53
60% of the world's welfare spending.
00:13:56
>> Wow.
00:13:57
>> So if you do that, that is a sign that
00:13:59
you've got very comfortable. You've got
00:14:01
very lazy. You have lost the ability to
00:14:04
realize you live in a dangerous world.
00:14:05
It's, you know, this is a bit of a
00:14:06
sidetrack, but it is an important
00:14:08
addendum to this conversation. This is
00:14:10
why European countries have pursued
00:14:13
economic suicide that we call net zero
00:14:15
as vigorously as we have because we have
00:14:18
felt so safe and so comfortable. we've
00:14:20
engaged in all this luxury uh obsessions
00:14:23
to the point where as you know Germany
00:14:25
destroyed its nuclear facilities uh
00:14:28
thereby making itself reliant on Russian
00:14:30
gas so that when Russia invaded Ukraine
00:14:33
the Germans opened the first thing that
00:14:35
they said is oh we were going to support
00:14:36
Ukraine we're going to give them 5,000
00:14:38
helmets right because they were so
00:14:40
dependent on Russian gas because they
00:14:43
refused to produce their own energy this
00:14:45
is exactly the same thing we've done in
00:14:47
Britain Britain has the highest
00:14:48
industrial electricity prices in the
00:14:50
world in the developed world which means
00:14:53
we basically destroyed all our
00:14:55
manufacturing industry which is now
00:14:56
produced elsewhere. We're getting to the
00:14:59
point where we can't make our own virgin
00:15:01
steel. Steel is kind of important if you
00:15:03
want to have a military etc etc etc. So
00:15:07
in Europe in particular, this has
00:15:09
happened because we've just felt so safe
00:15:11
and so comfortable and also so
00:15:13
rudderless that we've been able to
00:15:15
engage in all these looney ideas because
00:15:18
there's been no consequence. Well, the
00:15:20
consequences are here.
00:15:22
>> Where does Britain and Europe sit in the
00:15:26
sort of rankings of importance in the
00:15:27
world and power?
00:15:28
>> It's plummeting.
00:15:30
I mean, look at the the Trump's uh
00:15:33
12-day war in Iran, destroying Iran's
00:15:36
nuclear facilities. No one even asked
00:15:38
the British what we thought about
00:15:39
anymore. And that's not because, you
00:15:41
know, a lot of people like to say, "Oh,
00:15:42
you know, the Americans, they hate the
00:15:44
British." Americans love Britain. As you
00:15:46
know, you live in America now. You have
00:15:48
a British accent. I'm sure people come
00:15:50
up to you all the time and talk to you
00:15:51
about their connections with our
00:15:52
country, the shared history, all of that
00:15:54
stuff. The problem is we have made
00:15:56
ourselves irrelevant because everything
00:15:59
that Trump is looking at is strength.
00:16:01
Right? Is Britain strong now in the
00:16:03
world? No. Is Europe strong now in the
00:16:05
world? No. And so if you're not strong,
00:16:07
you will not be taken seriously. And
00:16:09
unfortunately because of what our
00:16:10
leaders have done over success of and
00:16:12
it's left right every political party
00:16:14
that we have that's been in power they
00:16:16
have overseen a decline in our status in
00:16:20
the world in our power in the world in
00:16:21
our influence in the world to the point
00:16:23
now where the Americans are looking at
00:16:25
Europe and they're going why would we be
00:16:27
allied with people who are not useful to
00:16:29
us an alliance is kind of like a
00:16:31
marriage both people have to bring
00:16:33
something to the table what do we bring
00:16:35
to the table from an American
00:16:36
perspective
00:16:38
>> this is a fairly new thing, isn't it?
00:16:39
Because I remember growing up, I'd
00:16:41
repeatedly hear the prime minister of
00:16:42
the UK talking about how he had spoken
00:16:44
to his US counterpart and they had made
00:16:47
a decision and then in even with the
00:16:49
Venezuela situation, I think Karma came
00:16:51
out the next day and said like, I had no
00:16:53
idea this was happening.
00:16:54
>> Of course, but why would you consult
00:16:56
with people who don't matter?
00:16:57
>> Why don't we matter?
00:16:58
>> We don't matter because we have nothing
00:17:00
to bring to the table. We don't despite
00:17:02
the the extremely high level of
00:17:04
professionalism, our technological
00:17:06
superiority, the courage of our soldiers
00:17:08
and our sailors and our airmen, despite
00:17:11
the immense military tradition Britain
00:17:13
has, we have cut I mean our debt
00:17:16
interest repayments annually
00:17:19
1.5 times heading towards being twice
00:17:22
our defense budget. We spent more on
00:17:25
paying off the debt, the national debt
00:17:27
every year than we spend on defense. How
00:17:30
did the UK get here?
00:17:31
>> Well, our our debt to GDP is over 100%.
00:17:35
We keep borrowing money. We talked about
00:17:37
the disproportionate amount of welfare
00:17:39
spending and social spending and so on.
00:17:41
We got here by forgetting that we live
00:17:44
in the real world and engaging in lots
00:17:46
of luxury beliefs about what we ought to
00:17:48
do. Uh so we have the highest tax burden
00:17:50
in peace time history in this country.
00:17:53
And we do that not because we want to
00:17:55
have a robust military or to do other
00:17:57
things like that. We do it so that we
00:17:59
can continue to pay ourselves money we
00:18:01
don't have borrowing it from our
00:18:03
children and our grandchildren. And this
00:18:05
is the case across Europe really.
00:18:07
America also has a high level of debt
00:18:09
but they have a growing economy unlike
00:18:11
ours. Britain uh Britain's GDP per
00:18:13
capita is lower today than it was in
00:18:15
2006. We have per capita which is what
00:18:19
matters per person. We have less money
00:18:21
today than we did 20 years ago. So our
00:18:24
economy's declined. We've destroyed our
00:18:26
manufacturing. we've run down our armed
00:18:28
forces. And also, I mean, look,
00:18:32
President Trump, I think, is fair to
00:18:34
say, is quite sensitive about what
00:18:35
people say about him. We have a
00:18:37
government now that very imprudently and
00:18:41
unwisely spent the time they were in
00:18:43
opposition on him on a daily
00:18:45
basis. David Lambie, if you take, who's
00:18:48
our foreign secretary, if you take some
00:18:50
of his comments about President Trump,
00:18:52
they were just deeply irresponsible.
00:18:54
whatever you think about the rights and
00:18:56
wrongs of what he said. A someone who
00:18:58
has the potential to be this country's
00:18:59
foreign secretary in charge of our
00:19:01
relationship with the United States
00:19:03
cannot be so imprudent as to make those
00:19:06
kinds of comments. And then you're
00:19:08
going, well, you've just been calling
00:19:10
this guy every name under the sun and
00:19:13
now you want to you want to be relevant.
00:19:15
You want to be taken seriously. You want
00:19:17
to be engaged with as he makes huge
00:19:19
decisions about geopolitics. Actions
00:19:22
have consequences and the actions we
00:19:24
have been taken have produced the
00:19:25
consequences that we've got. Now look, I
00:19:28
am not all doom and gloom about that. If
00:19:30
we change our strategy and if we change
00:19:32
our behavior, we can change the pro the
00:19:34
the the end product of that. We can do
00:19:36
that. But that's going to require a
00:19:38
massive readjustment
00:19:40
>> with the current direction of travel.
00:19:42
Where does the UK end up?
00:19:43
>> We're already there. We're irrelevant.
00:19:46
We are irrelevant when these, like you
00:19:48
said, Venezuela happens. No one cares
00:19:50
about us. When Iran gets bombed, no one
00:19:52
cares about us. All the future big
00:19:54
decisions about geopolitics are going to
00:19:57
be made without Britain even being
00:19:59
considered because it's going to be made
00:20:01
by the major powers of which Britain is
00:20:02
no longer one.
00:20:05
>> You choose to live in the UK despite
00:20:07
your views that the UK is a bit of a
00:20:10
sinking ship. I guess
00:20:11
>> because of my views actually.
00:20:14
>> Because of your views.
00:20:14
>> Yeah. Like look, you've moved to the
00:20:16
United States, which I'm grateful for
00:20:17
cuz it's made us the biggest UK podcast
00:20:19
in our space. I I appreciate that. But
00:20:22
as you can imagine, we get offers to do
00:20:24
the same in all sorts of different ways,
00:20:25
and we could have done the same. I love
00:20:27
this country. I'm very grateful to, and
00:20:29
I feel to stay and fight for it and to
00:20:32
articulate my views and try and persuade
00:20:33
people to my point of view so that we
00:20:35
can have a British renaissance, so that
00:20:37
we can have a British recovery is my
00:20:39
duty for as long as I can do that. And
00:20:41
if at some point, you know, I feel it's
00:20:42
completely futile, which I do not. Um,
00:20:45
>> so you hopeful.
00:20:46
>> I'm not despondent to the point of
00:20:48
giving up is where I am.
00:20:49
>> Are you hopeful?
00:20:50
>> No. No. But but I'm also not at the
00:20:54
point where I feel it's futile. I think
00:20:55
there is there is an opportunity to turn
00:20:58
things around if if everything comes
00:21:00
together and we're very fortunate. Uh,
00:21:02
and that's what I'm hopefully trying to
00:21:04
contribute to. through history when
00:21:06
companies pursue the strategy that the
00:21:08
UK is currently pursuing
00:21:10
>> where where does it end up economically?
00:21:13
>> Well, Stephen, you're the business guy.
00:21:14
You tell me.
00:21:15
>> No, but I don't I'm not I don't have the
00:21:16
greatest view of history and so I'm
00:21:17
wondering if there's because you know in
00:21:19
the UK I I was born 33 years ago in
00:21:22
Bosotswana and I moved to the UK when I
00:21:23
was young and um I've always known the
00:21:26
UK to be important and consequential and
00:21:30
the the economy to be, you know, much
00:21:31
better than where I'm from in Botswana.
00:21:34
So it's it's almost inconceivable for a
00:21:36
British person of my age to to think
00:21:38
that the UK could ever not be that. Yes.
00:21:40
Because it's always been in my lifetime.
00:21:42
>> Yes. But that is in many ways I'm not
00:21:44
pinning the blame on you obviously, but
00:21:45
that is in many ways how we got here.
00:21:47
Because what we thought collectively
00:21:49
was, well, look, no matter what we do,
00:21:52
we're always going to be Great Britain.
00:21:54
We're going to have a great economy.
00:21:55
We're going to have a strong military.
00:21:56
We're going to have a this. We're going
00:21:57
to have influence in the world. And then
00:21:59
we started doing lots of stupid
00:22:02
And that's how we've ended up in the
00:22:03
place that we've ended up. So this
00:22:05
country has every potential to be great.
00:22:07
The people are incredible. The level of
00:22:09
education, uh, the scientific and
00:22:11
technological advances that this country
00:22:13
has produced, the cultural, look at the
00:22:15
greatest bands in human history. Like
00:22:18
half of them are British comedians. I
00:22:20
mean, standup comedy is not a a British
00:22:22
invention. It was actually invented in
00:22:24
America. But look at some of the
00:22:26
greatest comedians in human history.
00:22:27
Again, lots and lots of British people.
00:22:29
So culturally, scientifically,
00:22:31
technologically, economically, we have
00:22:34
the potential. We have to have the
00:22:36
correct leadership and the right
00:22:38
strategy. And those two things have been
00:22:40
lacking for a long time. That's how
00:22:41
we've ended up here. Can we turn it
00:22:43
around? It's going to be very, very,
00:22:44
very difficult. But I but we've got to
00:22:46
try.
00:22:47
>> Why would these issues impact us on a
00:22:49
individual level? So I'm thinking about
00:22:51
the average person listening now,
00:22:53
whether they are in the United States or
00:22:54
here in Britain. You know, this stuff
00:22:56
happens kind of up above us and we get
00:22:58
on with our lives. But what are the
00:23:00
symptoms we'll begin to see
00:23:02
>> this multipolar world or the the fall of
00:23:04
Britain?
00:23:05
>> You are already poorer today than you
00:23:07
were 20 years ago
00:23:08
>> per capita
00:23:09
>> in the UK.
00:23:10
>> In the UK,
00:23:10
>> yeah,
00:23:11
>> that seems to me quite important. And in
00:23:13
fact, many of our conversations about
00:23:15
domestic issues, whether it's mass
00:23:16
immigration and all of these other
00:23:18
things, they're really proxies for that
00:23:20
conversation. because if we if the
00:23:21
economy was growing and people felt
00:23:23
richer,
00:23:25
all of this stuff would become less
00:23:26
important, right? Well, I think we'd
00:23:28
agree with that. So, that's one aspect
00:23:30
of it. The other aspect of it is, as I
00:23:32
talked about the multipolar world being
00:23:34
by necessity more violent and unstable.
00:23:38
We are going, you know, you we I don't
00:23:40
know when this will go out, but we're
00:23:41
recording this in the middle of January.
00:23:43
It's been like two weeks since the year
00:23:45
started and we've already seen crazy
00:23:47
amounts of instability geopolitically
00:23:50
already. Is that fair to say? So, this
00:23:52
will continue and that will bleed
00:23:54
through to domestic politics because if
00:23:57
you have to spend more of your resources
00:23:58
worrying about things abroad, it means
00:24:00
you can do less at home and so on and so
00:24:02
on and so on. So the the ramifications
00:24:04
of this will be very impactful on
00:24:06
everybody around the world more on
00:24:09
non-western countries because they a lot
00:24:11
of them are going to be in the front
00:24:12
line of this in in the way that I I
00:24:14
doubt we will be. Uh but still the
00:24:16
consequences for us will be very
00:24:18
significant.
00:24:19
>> And we're seeing adjacent to this this
00:24:21
rise in socialism.
00:24:22
>> Yeah.
00:24:23
>> The conversation around socialism.
00:24:24
Obviously Menani has been elected mayor.
00:24:27
But do you think this is at all linked
00:24:28
to the bigger picture this rise in
00:24:30
socialism?
00:24:30
>> Yeah. In fact, I I think you know I
00:24:32
wrote an article a long time ago called
00:24:34
Why I Fear the Future and I did a video
00:24:36
based on it in which I talked about
00:24:38
something. It's interesting. I did a
00:24:39
live show um here in London just before
00:24:42
Christmas and I did a book signing and
00:24:44
one of the guys came up to me and he
00:24:45
said, "I've got two kids. They're both
00:24:47
teenagers, daughter and the son and I'm
00:24:49
trying to pull the daughter in from the
00:24:50
far left and I'm trying to pull the son
00:24:52
in from the far right." That's going to
00:24:54
be the big challenge going forward
00:24:56
because um the amount of chaos and
00:25:00
instability and cultural kind of
00:25:03
cultural upheaval that we've seen has
00:25:05
produced a craving for order and on the
00:25:08
social that's the right side you know we
00:25:10
must you know get this and on the other
00:25:13
side it's produced a sense of injustice
00:25:17
and the pursuit of inequality. That's
00:25:18
why you hear people talk so much about
00:25:20
the rich the rich the rich the rich and
00:25:22
you know eat the rich we got to
00:25:24
redistribute all of this stuff because
00:25:26
particularly in the big cities young
00:25:27
people rightly feel that they can they
00:25:29
can't really get on the housing ladder
00:25:30
they can't establish a family life is
00:25:33
more difficult so they reach for these
00:25:35
very um dis disproven discredited and
00:25:38
completely unworkable solutions of the
00:25:39
kind Manny uh will of course deliver but
00:25:42
it's because their sense of their sense
00:25:46
is that the future's been taken away
00:25:47
from And in many ways they're correct
00:25:50
because as I said earlier we have been
00:25:52
borrowing from our children and our
00:25:54
grandchildren. We've been saddling with
00:25:56
crippling debts our entire economy that
00:25:59
will come to an end and it's going to be
00:26:01
them that is left to foot the bill and
00:26:03
it's going to be very painful and partly
00:26:05
they see that and already they see that
00:26:06
they just can't afford the life that
00:26:08
they want. I do think in the United
00:26:10
States it's a much more contained
00:26:11
phenomenon. I think Mamani and if you
00:26:13
look at sort of the American socialists,
00:26:16
they all tend to cluster around New York
00:26:18
and one or two other big cities. It's
00:26:19
not like the entirety of America is
00:26:21
going socialist. But I think housing
00:26:24
unaffordability is one. Another
00:26:26
explanation which I think is also
00:26:27
powerful is what's called elite over
00:26:29
production which is if you have as Tony
00:26:31
Blair did this idea that 50% of the
00:26:33
public should should go to university.
00:26:36
Well, they do and then it turns out
00:26:38
there's not enough jobs for them.
00:26:39
Particularly in the age of AI where they
00:26:41
are the jobs that are being eliminated
00:26:43
very rapidly. You then get a lot of
00:26:45
people whose entitlement is up here and
00:26:48
whose prospects are down here. That
00:26:50
produces a tremendous amount of social
00:26:52
disease as well.
00:26:53
>> I think this is a really important
00:26:54
connected point
00:26:57
on the subject of socialism and the rise
00:26:59
of socialism that we will see is this
00:27:01
point of AI. And when I listen to very
00:27:04
very smart people who are considered to
00:27:06
be the godfathers of AI or CEOs who are
00:27:09
building these technology companies,
00:27:10
there seems to be a consensus that
00:27:11
socialism will only increase because the
00:27:13
job losses associated with AI are going
00:27:15
to be pretty quick and pretty extreme.
00:27:18
And um I mean one of them that most
00:27:20
Brits won't understand is something we
00:27:22
understand now living in America, which
00:27:23
is my car drives itself.
00:27:24
>> Yes. And I I've said this a few times
00:27:26
because I'm really trying to it's like
00:27:27
the first moment Eureka moment I think
00:27:29
you have is in America when I get in my
00:27:31
car I don't touch the steering wheel or
00:27:33
the pedals and it can drive me to Joshua
00:27:35
Tree which is like 2 and a half three
00:27:36
hours away uninterrupted and I say this
00:27:38
because driving is like one of the
00:27:40
biggest employees in the world. I think
00:27:41
it is the biggest profession in the
00:27:42
world
00:27:43
>> and London just announced that Whimos
00:27:45
are here and soon surely Teslas will be
00:27:48
allowed to do full self-driving here as
00:27:50
well
00:27:51
>> and in such a world delivery drivers,
00:27:52
taxi drivers, Uber drivers are going to
00:27:55
be without jobs and we're seeing this um
00:27:58
huge rise in autonomous humanoid robots
00:28:00
as well
00:28:01
>> and Elon's pay packet says that he he
00:28:04
will make a million of these autonomous
00:28:06
robots and get them out into the world
00:28:07
and Jason Kakanakas who just visited
00:28:10
Elon 's factory said there'll be a
00:28:12
billion of these and he thinks that we
00:28:14
won't even even remember Tesla for
00:28:16
making cars will only remember them for
00:28:17
the robots they're made because these
00:28:19
Optimus robots which are coming are
00:28:22
going to be so consequential and the
00:28:23
last point here is a very good friend of
00:28:24
mine who runs this big sort of
00:28:26
innovation accelerator in San Francisco
00:28:28
I visited the accelerator a couple of
00:28:30
weeks back and um he I said to him why
00:28:33
why is everybody here all these young
00:28:34
founders these 40 50 young founders in
00:28:36
your building called effing all working
00:28:37
on robotics and he goes well you know
00:28:39
we've had all parts for like 20, 30
00:28:41
years. But the expensive part was the
00:28:43
intelligence.
00:28:44
>> The brain.
00:28:44
>> Yeah. The brain. He goes, "Now we have
00:28:46
the bra." He said, "It used to He showed
00:28:47
me this arm, this robotic arm that had a
00:28:49
frying pan on it that would cook for you
00:28:51
in a box. It just cooks whatever you
00:28:52
want in a box." And he goes, "We've had
00:28:54
all these parts for the last 30 years."
00:28:56
That they were cheap. He goes, "The the
00:28:58
intelligence part, the brain would cost
00:29:00
20 or $30,000 just for this little robot
00:29:03
arm." He goes, "Now it's like 2 cents."
00:29:06
>> Yeah.
00:29:06
>> And he say, "So you're seeing this huge
00:29:08
explosion in robotics." I don't think
00:29:10
people understand what's coming.
00:29:11
>> No. And going to San Francisco is
00:29:13
eyeopening on two levels. Number one is
00:29:16
like a quarter to a third of the cars on
00:29:17
the road don't have drivers.
00:29:19
>> Yeah.
00:29:19
>> And just visually seeing that is so
00:29:21
striking.
00:29:22
>> Um but the other thing is talking to
00:29:24
some of the people involved. There is a
00:29:26
there are some people who are fairly
00:29:27
sensible about it, fairly responsible
00:29:29
among the founders, although they will
00:29:31
still say and I think they're right that
00:29:33
like if we don't do this, China will and
00:29:34
so we've got to do this. But there's
00:29:36
also a lot and I I'm sure you've
00:29:38
encountered there's a kind of you know
00:29:40
that famous Facebook mantra of move fast
00:29:42
and break things. There's a lot of that
00:29:44
going on in the AI space and so it's
00:29:47
going to be hugely impactful. I don't
00:29:49
claim to know the the all the little
00:29:51
details of how that will play out other
00:29:53
than to say it's going to be very
00:29:55
disruptive. Uh and disruptiveness has
00:29:58
happened throughout human history. It's
00:29:59
always produced a backlash. It's always
00:30:01
caused a lot of disease. But then
00:30:03
humanity has managed to recover. This is
00:30:05
different level and we will see how it
00:30:07
plays out. But yeah, of course it's
00:30:08
going to be and yeah, a world in which
00:30:10
millions of people in which millions of
00:30:13
people no longer have jobs and most of
00:30:15
them are disproportionately young people
00:30:17
who are more prone to extremism anyway.
00:30:20
Yeah, that's not a pretty picture
00:30:22
>> and one would assume that the wealth
00:30:24
will acrude to a few.
00:30:25
>> Yes,
00:30:26
>> in such a scenario.
00:30:27
>> And what's funny is I have said really
00:30:29
only half jokingly. I mean I wrote a
00:30:30
whole book about my opposition to
00:30:31
communism and socialism based on
00:30:33
experience.
00:30:34
In a world in which no one has a job,
00:30:35
I'm like 100% on board with communism.
00:30:40
>> Do you think that's the world we're
00:30:41
heading towards?
00:30:42
>> Possibly.
00:30:43
>> Yeah. But it makes sense. I mean, like
00:30:45
you, if you think about it from the
00:30:47
perspective of
00:30:50
50 people in the world, have all the
00:30:52
money in the world, and everyone else
00:30:53
has no job. I think a little bit of
00:30:56
wealth redistribution is going to be
00:30:58
unavoidable in that situation. And it
00:30:59
can either happen voluntarily or it's
00:31:01
going to happen at the end of bayonets.
00:31:02
That's the choice.
00:31:04
>> When you say communism would be the only
00:31:06
choice in such a scenario, what what
00:31:07
does that mean?
00:31:07
>> Uh it means everybody gets paid for
00:31:10
existing,
00:31:12
right? Well, I mean, what else is there?
00:31:14
You're going to create fake jobs for
00:31:16
people. That's not going to work, right?
00:31:18
So if if all the wealth in the world is
00:31:21
going to be created by robots, a world
00:31:23
in which th the products of their labor
00:31:26
it only acrus to 50 people who had the
00:31:29
idea or did the work 20 years ago that's
00:31:32
not going to sustain itself. And so uh
00:31:36
it would be very very unwise of those
00:31:39
people to attempt to hold on to all that
00:31:41
wealth and it would not end well for
00:31:42
them in my opinion.
00:31:43
>> On a personal level, you know, this
00:31:45
disruption is going to happen in your
00:31:46
lifetime.
00:31:46
>> Yeah. Are you thinking much about it or
00:31:48
planning for it at all? Did has it
00:31:50
changed any of the decisions you you
00:31:51
make on a a day-to-day basis or
00:31:53
month-to-month basis?
00:31:54
>> Well, I'm very fortunate that I am
00:31:57
probably a little harder to replace with
00:31:59
a robot just because people don't really
00:32:01
want to hear robots opinions. I would
00:32:03
imagine we might get to that point, but
00:32:05
I think it's unlikely. So on my my own
00:32:07
level, I'm probably, you know, the time
00:32:10
scale I'm working to in the next 10
00:32:11
years, I imagine I'll I'll get myself to
00:32:14
a point where I'm going to be reasonably
00:32:15
comfortable no matter what happens. For
00:32:17
my children,
00:32:17
>> that was us cutting forward 10 years and
00:32:19
watching.
00:32:19
>> Yeah. Yeah. Just totally me just
00:32:21
unemployed long.
00:32:23
I can't believe what happened. For my
00:32:25
children, it's a very different
00:32:27
conversation. Uh so a lot of people are
00:32:29
like, well, you know, what should I
00:32:31
teach my children? And people are, oh
00:32:32
yeah, they should be a plumber. I don't
00:32:34
think you're going to need plumbers 15,
00:32:35
20 years from now either. So I I
00:32:37
honestly don't know what that future
00:32:39
looks like. And in many ways, that's
00:32:41
always been the reality of life for most
00:32:44
people. We are living through one of
00:32:45
those great transitions in human history
00:32:47
in which all you can do is equip your
00:32:50
children with the basic skill sets of
00:32:52
life as opposed to what might have been
00:32:55
done 20 30 years ago where like you you
00:32:58
get you go to school to develop a skill
00:32:59
to go to university to build a career.
00:33:01
Now, you're going to have to show a lot
00:33:03
of flex in this modern world. So, you're
00:33:04
going to have to be personable. You're
00:33:06
going to have to be resourceful. You're
00:33:08
going to have to be creative. You're
00:33:09
going to have to go have a a positive
00:33:10
go-getter mindset. You're going to have
00:33:12
to have those basics nailed down as
00:33:14
opposed to here's the career that you've
00:33:16
been predetermined to have, unless of
00:33:18
course you go into AI and robotics, in
00:33:20
which case you probably won't be
00:33:21
replaced for at least 5 years.
00:33:23
>> I think there's something to the fact
00:33:24
that there's an angst with AI. And when
00:33:26
you know people listen to podcasts all
00:33:28
the time. Yeah.
00:33:29
>> They everyone who has a job in a big
00:33:31
corporate environment now is being told
00:33:33
by their CEO that you better learn AI or
00:33:35
it's going to replace you. So we're
00:33:36
living in this moment of
00:33:38
>> there's like aliens coming over the
00:33:39
horizon and we've spotted them.
00:33:42
>> They're not quite here yet,
00:33:44
>> but it's it's like saying to the general
00:33:45
public, look, there's aliens coming and
00:33:47
they're coming for your job and
00:33:48
everything you value. That angst in and
00:33:50
of itself I think can drive people
00:33:53
towards ideas like socialism
00:33:56
understandably.
00:33:57
>> Yeah.
00:33:57
>> Because you you know it's it's a it's a
00:33:59
deep existential angst
00:34:02
>> and also a lot of the AI people not all
00:34:05
of them a lot of them are being but a
00:34:07
lot of them are being deeply
00:34:08
irresponsible and very unwise with their
00:34:10
messaging. What? Last time I was in New
00:34:12
York, I was walking through Time Square.
00:34:14
There was this giant billboard which
00:34:15
said, it was the name of the company,
00:34:17
which I don't remember. Stop hiring
00:34:19
humans. The age of the AI employees
00:34:21
here. I'm going, have you really thought
00:34:24
about this? Have you thought about
00:34:25
putting your company's name on this
00:34:27
poster? Do you understand the impact
00:34:29
this is going to have on a normal person
00:34:31
looking at that? Um, but they are. So,
00:34:34
the thing is with AI is the the positive
00:34:37
upsides of it are limitless. Literally
00:34:40
limitless. And so a lot of the people
00:34:42
who are in that space, that's what they
00:34:44
focus on. And they're like, we can solve
00:34:46
cancer. We can solve medical problems.
00:34:48
We can have AI that's better than any
00:34:50
physicist that can ever that's ever
00:34:52
lived that can give us the, you know,
00:34:54
the eternal engine or or or whatever. We
00:34:56
don't need energy anymore. Like there
00:34:58
are all sorts of crazy things that come
00:35:00
out of AI that are potentially
00:35:02
beneficial. And that is exciting. But
00:35:05
the angst that you talk about, I think,
00:35:07
is there. And I think it's also quite
00:35:09
rational. You just reminded me of a
00:35:11
video that came out this week from Elon
00:35:13
where he says this. I'll play it for
00:35:16
you. I think it's this one's. So, he's
00:35:18
talking about Elon's talking about the
00:35:20
robots that are about to be released
00:35:22
from Tesla, which are called Optimus.
00:35:24
And someone's asking him
00:35:26
>> how good they will be at surgery.
00:35:28
>> What do you think Optimus will be a
00:35:29
better surgeon than the best surgeons?
00:35:34
How long for that?
00:35:35
>> Three years.
00:35:36
>> Three years. Okay. Yeah. And by the way,
00:35:39
I say three years.
00:35:40
at scale.
00:35:41
>> Yes.
00:35:42
>> And there will be more probably more
00:35:43
Optimus robots that are great surgeons
00:35:46
than there are
00:35:47
>> all surgeons on Earth.
00:35:48
>> And the cost of that but that's an
00:35:50
important statement in 3 years time.
00:35:52
>> Yeah.
00:35:52
>> Um because medicine I mean absolutely
00:35:58
if it's four or five years who cares.
00:36:00
It's still an
00:36:00
>> extreme precision.
00:36:02
>> Yes.
00:36:02
>> Three years. Um,
00:36:04
yes. Better than any any probably I'd
00:36:07
say if you like put a little margin on
00:36:09
it. Better than any human in four years
00:36:11
>> who's in plastic surgery. 5 years is not
00:36:14
even close.
00:36:15
>> I think your point was medicine is going
00:36:18
to be effectively free. The best
00:36:20
medicine in the world.
00:36:21
>> Everyone will have access to medical
00:36:23
care that is better than what the
00:36:26
president receives right now.
00:36:27
>> So don't go to medical school.
00:36:29
>> Yes. Pointless.
00:36:31
>> Yeah. pointless going to medical school.
00:36:34
>> Look, he knows way more about this than
00:36:36
I do. I would also say that I think both
00:36:38
the incentive structure and his personal
00:36:40
temperament lean towards a kind of
00:36:42
optimism and there's a sales dimension
00:36:45
to this as well, obviously, cuz he's one
00:36:47
of the people producing the stuff. So,
00:36:48
his optimism may be a product of the
00:36:50
incentive structure that he's subject
00:36:52
to. But even if it's not 3 years,
00:36:56
I I don't think it's more than 10 years.
00:36:59
So, that's the time frame. And given how
00:37:01
long it takes to train to become a
00:37:02
doctor. Yeah.
00:37:04
>> I want to talk about the situation in
00:37:06
Iran.
00:37:07
>> We're seeing what one might call an
00:37:09
uprising at the moment where protesters
00:37:11
are are on the street in a country where
00:37:13
it is very very dangerous um and also
00:37:15
very brave to protest against the
00:37:17
leadership there. Where does this fit in
00:37:20
the broader context? What what the hell
00:37:21
is going on?
00:37:22
>> I am not an expert on Iran, but
00:37:25
effectively what's happening in Iran is
00:37:27
an attempted counterrevolution. So they
00:37:29
had a revolution in 1979. They overthrew
00:37:32
the ruler, the sha, and they replaced
00:37:34
him with a an Islamic dictatorship,
00:37:37
which is what you've had since 1979. And
00:37:39
the people of Iran have attempted to
00:37:42
overthrow this Islamic dictatorship
00:37:45
repeatedly. They've always been brutally
00:37:46
suppressed. And that's basically what's
00:37:48
happening now again.
00:37:49
>> And is does this fit somewhere into the
00:37:51
broader conflict of geopolitics in the
00:37:52
US, the multipol? Well, only in the
00:37:55
sense that you can see that even
00:37:57
President Trump, who's talked quite
00:37:59
brashly about what he might do if this
00:38:02
sort of gets out of hand, is still not
00:38:04
as we speak doing anything about it on a
00:38:07
on a kind of kinetic level. And that's
00:38:10
partly for the reasons that we talked
00:38:12
about earlier, which is the United
00:38:13
States is deeply deeply the United
00:38:16
States public are deeply deeply
00:38:17
skeptical about foreign interventions.
00:38:20
And so the idea that we that we the West
00:38:22
would support a a regime change in Iran
00:38:26
is not something that you can sell to
00:38:29
the American people right now. And so he
00:38:30
has to be he has to be much more careful
00:38:33
about what he might otherwise have done
00:38:35
in Iran. And so because of that, the
00:38:38
leaders of Iran probably feel like
00:38:40
they're in a better position to crack
00:38:42
down and survive versus what might have
00:38:45
happened in the past. I mean, Trump's
00:38:48
been quite vocal in what he might do in
00:38:50
his threats. He said that the US would
00:38:52
come to the protesters rescue, that we
00:38:54
are locked, loaded, and ready to go. He
00:38:56
announced that countries doing business
00:38:57
with Iran, faced a 25% tariff on their
00:39:00
trade with the US, ramping up pressure.
00:39:02
>> And he called for Iranians to keep
00:39:03
protesting.
00:39:05
Um, and then more recently, he said,
00:39:06
"I've canceled all meetings with Iranian
00:39:08
officials until the senseless killing of
00:39:09
protest stops. Help is on the way. Mag
00:39:13
mega,
00:39:14
>> make Iran great." Well, Iran, you know,
00:39:17
I mean, one thing that should be said is
00:39:19
the Persian Empire and the Persian
00:39:20
people are a great people with a very
00:39:22
rich history. And what's interesting is
00:39:25
in attempting to over I don't know if
00:39:27
you've ever seen pictures from Tehran
00:39:28
from before 1979, it's like women
00:39:30
walking around in miniskirts and and all
00:39:32
the rest of it. So, they have a very
00:39:34
long history of freedom in a way that we
00:39:37
don't tend to think of the Middle East
00:39:39
as having today. uh and that's that's
00:39:41
that's an example of how it's perhaps
00:39:44
different from other parts of the Middle
00:39:46
East. But you can see the the reluctance
00:39:49
to actually do anything about it because
00:39:50
the question is well let's say you do
00:39:52
remove the current leadership. Let's say
00:39:55
you bring back the son of the former
00:39:57
Shah Resa he oversees a transition to
00:40:01
some kind of democratic thing. Who is
00:40:03
there protecting that process from being
00:40:07
disrupted by the remnants of the old
00:40:09
regime? Who's going to do that? Is there
00:40:12
American boots on the ground? Cuz
00:40:13
there's literally zero appetite for that
00:40:16
in America. That's the challenge that I
00:40:18
think he faces, which is probably why he
00:40:20
hasn't done anything.
00:40:20
>> And how do you think the story plays
00:40:22
out?
00:40:22
>> No idea, mate. No idea. I I I have no
00:40:25
idea what what's going to happen here. I
00:40:27
fear unfortunately that what the regime
00:40:30
will do I'm not saying this is what will
00:40:32
happen but my fear is and it's one of
00:40:35
the reasons that I am
00:40:39
I sympathize so deeply with the Iranian
00:40:41
people that are rising up against the
00:40:43
oppression but I am wary of encouraging
00:40:46
encouraging them unless we are willing
00:40:48
to back them fully. This is exactly in
00:40:51
in a way that what happened with
00:40:52
Ukraine. There was a lot of rah rah
00:40:54
rahrh and there was not nearly enough
00:40:56
support to actually help them defend
00:40:58
their country. My fear is there will be
00:41:01
a lot of rah. We support the Ukrainian
00:41:03
people. We stand with them blah blah,
00:41:05
you know, blah blah blah. But ultimately
00:41:08
the regime will kill more of them and it
00:41:10
will kill enough of them for this to go
00:41:12
away. That's my worry.
00:41:14
>> Well, I hope the world does come to the
00:41:16
support of the Iranians. I really do.
00:41:18
>> Me too. because for all the reasons
00:41:20
you've said, beautiful country,
00:41:21
beautiful people, and um it's it's
00:41:24
horrific to see what's going on. There's
00:41:25
varying estimates. It's unfortunately we
00:41:28
we don't have accurate numbers because I
00:41:30
mean the internet is down and it's
00:41:32
always hard to get accurate numbers in
00:41:33
the situation, but I've heard estimates
00:41:35
ranging from 2,000 to 18,000 people
00:41:37
being killed. And uh it's inconceivable
00:41:40
I think for Westerners like us to
00:41:43
understand what it is to live in an
00:41:44
environment like that.
00:41:46
>> Which is why they're protesting as
00:41:47
courageously as they are. I just hope
00:41:50
that the geopolitical realities allow us
00:41:53
to support them in the way that we keep
00:41:54
saying we would. Do you see what I'm
00:41:57
saying?
00:41:57
>> Yeah, of course. Yeah. And this is Yeah.
00:41:59
>> And this is my big worry. We have we
00:42:01
have done a lot of this. We stand with
00:42:04
you. We support you. And then when push
00:42:06
comes to shove,
00:42:08
the realities of the thing come into
00:42:10
play and suddenly we're a lot more
00:42:12
careful about it.
00:42:12
>> Trump seems to walk the walk more so
00:42:14
than others.
00:42:15
>> Absolutely.
00:42:16
>> And he seems to It's funny because I
00:42:18
think it was Biden that said to China
00:42:20
that if they took back Taiwan, he would
00:42:21
get involved.
00:42:24
>> Trump didn't say that.
00:42:25
>> He's kind of I was looking at some
00:42:26
quotes from Trump and it seems like he's
00:42:27
basically like, well, if they take
00:42:28
Taiwan back, I ain't going to get
00:42:30
involved. But in other instances where
00:42:32
he warns countries that he'll bomb them
00:42:34
or take action. Yeah.
00:42:36
>> Like Venezuela or like Iran with the the
00:42:38
nuclear weapon situation, he does seem
00:42:40
to follow through.
00:42:42
>> And I Marco Rubio and Hegathth were
00:42:44
saying the other day in the interview I
00:42:45
was watching that listen when when is
00:42:47
the world going to learn? If Trump says
00:42:49
something, he's going to do it. And you
00:42:50
know him saying that we will come to
00:42:52
your rescue.
00:42:53
>> Well, hopefully they come through on
00:42:55
that, but also hopefully they have a
00:42:57
plan for what happens after that.
00:43:00
>> Yeah. And this is the mistake we've
00:43:02
obviously made in a number of countries,
00:43:05
Libya, Iraq,
00:43:07
Afghanistan,
00:43:09
Syria, which is now basically headed by
00:43:11
a jihadi.
00:43:12
>> Yeah.
00:43:13
>> Right. Where we go, oh yeah, we've got
00:43:15
to remove this terrible guy and yeah,
00:43:18
he's terrible guy and we're right to
00:43:19
remove him. But then what do you end up
00:43:21
with afterwards? So if they do help the
00:43:23
Iranian people, which I hope they have,
00:43:25
they have the plans to do, then I hope
00:43:27
they have a plan for what happens after
00:43:29
that and how you get Iran to a position
00:43:32
where the people of Iran get to choose
00:43:33
their own leaders and those leaders stay
00:43:35
in power and those leaders are the sorts
00:43:38
of people that you might want to see in
00:43:40
charge because you know this happened in
00:43:42
Egypt. They they they have the Arab
00:43:44
Spring. They overthrow the evil dictator
00:43:46
and what do they do? they elect the
00:43:47
Muslim Brotherhood and then the people
00:43:49
go no no no no we need the military back
00:43:51
etc. So these are not easy problems to
00:43:53
solve which is why people are being
00:43:55
careful about it. So I hope they have a
00:43:56
a plan and a solution for what comes
00:43:58
after if they in fact act
00:44:00
>> and Trump's also talking about taking
00:44:02
Greenland
00:44:03
>> which is the first time I heard him say
00:44:05
that I thought he was joking. I thought
00:44:07
this is just a funny Trump, you know,
00:44:08
when he was talking about taking Canada.
00:44:10
>> Yeah,
00:44:11
>> it was he was calling it the great state
00:44:13
of Canada. I thought this was him just
00:44:14
joking. But in more recent times, in the
00:44:16
last week, I heard him say in an
00:44:18
interview, "We're going to do it the
00:44:19
easy way or the hard way." Words to that
00:44:21
effect.
00:44:24
>> What's going on?
00:44:25
>> Well, we talked about they're trying to
00:44:26
protect their sphere of influence in
00:44:28
North America and South America, and
00:44:30
they they want they want they want to
00:44:32
have the military bases there that they
00:44:34
want to have there. They want to have
00:44:35
the resources and access to that.
00:44:36
>> Are we returning to empires?
00:44:38
>> We never left empire. This is the This
00:44:40
is the great thing that we we've been
00:44:43
living in the dream world. We've been
00:44:44
pretending these things haven't been
00:44:46
going on the entire time. They have. The
00:44:48
world's always been like this.
00:44:50
There was a brief moment after World War
00:44:53
II when it wasn't like this because we
00:44:55
were fighting the Soviet Union. And the
00:44:57
Soviet Union, the battle in the Cold War
00:44:59
was very similar. There was proxy wars
00:45:01
all over the place between those two
00:45:03
great powers. Right now there's two
00:45:06
different great powers and a third
00:45:08
smaller power in Russia and India is
00:45:10
rising as well who are all trying to
00:45:12
make their moves and all Trump is doing
00:45:14
is saying well we are not going to play
00:45:16
by the fake rules anymore that no one
00:45:18
else is playing by anyway.
00:45:21
>> And so is Trump endeavoring to take that
00:45:24
part of the world take control of that?
00:45:26
>> Take control. Yeah. In many ways, it's
00:45:28
what every great power seeks to do is to
00:45:30
control its neighbors so that they don't
00:45:32
have foreign influence in their backyard
00:45:34
so that they have the strategic
00:45:36
advantage in that area. Um, it's the way
00:45:39
of the world.
00:45:41
>> I mean, I didn't hear this rhetoric for
00:45:43
the other 30 years of my life.
00:45:45
>> Yeah.
00:45:46
>> As explicitly.
00:45:47
>> Yeah.
00:45:48
>> And when you say multipolar,
00:45:50
what are the polls?
00:45:52
>> Well, it's the US and China.
00:45:54
>> Yeah. are the two Russia wants to claim
00:45:58
it's a third one and then you will see
00:46:00
the rise of India I think over time as
00:46:02
well India is a lot more sensible about
00:46:05
these things about the way that they're
00:46:06
developing
00:46:07
>> and is is the multipolar world a good
00:46:09
thing or a bad thing or is it just
00:46:10
indifferent
00:46:11
>> for whom
00:46:12
>> for let's do people living in Europe
00:46:16
>> I think it's likely to be a very bad
00:46:18
thing for people living in Europe
00:46:21
because we become less powerful less
00:46:23
wealthy less relevant
00:46:25
uh for the reasons we've already
00:46:27
discussed. We could change it if we
00:46:29
wanted to.
00:46:31
>> How
00:46:32
>> we could uh abandon our suicidal
00:46:34
economic policy. So we could have
00:46:36
economic growth again which would
00:46:38
increase our share of GDP. We would make
00:46:41
our people more prosperous. It would
00:46:43
help to quell domestic unease.
00:46:46
>> Part of which has been created by mass
00:46:47
immigration. People care about that more
00:46:50
because they're poorer. Right? If we
00:46:52
were growing, then everybody's a little
00:46:55
bit happier. It's like you move to LA,
00:46:56
the sunshine is nice, everybody's a
00:46:58
little bit happier. When you're getting
00:46:59
richer, everybody's a little bit
00:47:01
happier. So, that's one of them. The
00:47:02
second one is you've got to recognize
00:47:05
that the huge waves of immigration we
00:47:08
have had uh have brought some positives.
00:47:11
They've also brought a tremendous amount
00:47:13
of cultural instability. People feel
00:47:15
like their country is changing. They
00:47:17
never voted for it. In fact, they
00:47:18
repeatedly voted against it. So you have
00:47:20
to arrest the sense that our country is
00:47:23
ceasing to be one place and instead
00:47:25
we're becoming different communities,
00:47:27
right? The this community, the that
00:47:29
community. Instead, we've got to go to a
00:47:31
place where we're all British or we're
00:47:33
all American or we're all French or
00:47:34
whatever it is, we've got to integrate
00:47:36
fully the people have already arrived.
00:47:38
And to do that, you have to make sure
00:47:40
you don't continue to have the same
00:47:42
scale of inflows that we've had. You
00:47:44
have to deal with illegal immigration.
00:47:46
You have to stop that from happening
00:47:47
because that that really affects how
00:47:49
people feel about sense of fairness and
00:47:51
a commitment and loyalty to their
00:47:53
country. One of the reasons if you talk
00:47:54
to young people they they'll say they're
00:47:56
disillusioned, they won't fight for
00:47:58
their country, etc. is they feel like
00:48:00
well their country doesn't care about
00:48:02
them. It's bringing in people that it's
00:48:04
paying to have a house and and so all
00:48:06
the rest of it while they can't get on
00:48:08
the property letter. So you've got to
00:48:09
deal with immigration as a whole
00:48:11
package. Then you have to rebuild your
00:48:13
military. You have to rebuild your
00:48:14
military capacity.
00:48:16
And then you have to understand the new
00:48:19
world in which we live and really pick a
00:48:21
team and say which alliances are we
00:48:23
going to nurture. In my opinion the best
00:48:25
thing Britain could do is to nurture the
00:48:28
alliance with the United States to make
00:48:30
itself relevant within that alliance for
00:48:32
in the ways that I've already talked
00:48:34
about and then join forces with the US
00:48:36
and recognize that we have very similar
00:48:38
interests in a lot of things and if we
00:48:40
were prepared to act like it then we'd
00:48:42
be in a much better place.
00:48:45
And also you got to have more kids.
00:48:48
A lot more kids.
00:48:50
>> Why?
00:48:51
>> Uh if you if you look at forget about
00:48:53
the moral kind of sensibilities and
00:48:54
politically correct stuff about it, the
00:48:56
more people you have, the more powerful
00:48:58
you are comparative all other things
00:49:00
being equal, right? A country with more
00:49:03
people is more powerful than a country
00:49:04
with fewer people. Just if everything
00:49:06
else is the same. But more importantly,
00:49:09
our dem we're in a demographic death
00:49:11
spiral. And this is one of the reasons
00:49:13
we have had mass immigration.
00:49:14
Politicians won't tell you the honest
00:49:16
truth of it. But the real reason is they
00:49:17
keep bringing in hundreds of thousands
00:49:20
of people is if they don't, we will see
00:49:22
the reality which is that we're getting
00:49:24
poorer all the time. But if they bring
00:49:26
in a mass of people from outside, they
00:49:30
can say that the economy is growing not
00:49:33
because it's growing on a per capita
00:49:34
basis, but because you've simply added
00:49:36
more people to the population. And if if
00:49:38
if this is seems abstract, think about
00:49:40
it like this. Let's say you have
00:49:43
uh you have a family, you, your
00:49:45
girlfriend, and you've got two kids,
00:49:47
right? And your total household income
00:49:49
is £100,000 a year, let's say, for the
00:49:51
four of you. Now, let's say you bring in
00:49:53
your in-laws. They live in the same
00:49:55
house, right? They don't earn anything.
00:49:57
Let's say they own 10 grand a year each.
00:49:58
So now your household income is
00:50:00
£120,000. So you've got richer, haven't
00:50:02
you?
00:50:04
>> No, you've now got six people to spread
00:50:07
that money over and now you're per
00:50:08
person a lot poorer. That's what British
00:50:11
and European leaders have done so that
00:50:15
they could pretend that we're not
00:50:16
getting poorer all the time. That's why
00:50:19
they've done it. Uh this is what they
00:50:20
say. We need people to come and do the
00:50:22
jobs. That that's what they mean. They
00:50:24
mean we need to bring in more people so
00:50:26
we can tell you the economy has grown by
00:50:28
0.3%.
00:50:30
While you've been getting poorer. So
00:50:32
you've got to address the economic side
00:50:34
of this as well of the demographic
00:50:36
thing. And the third thing actually is
00:50:39
societies with lots of kids kids are
00:50:41
just much more dynamic than societies
00:50:43
without them. You know, you get very
00:50:45
stale when you've got too many older
00:50:47
people. You need that young energy, that
00:50:49
young blood. You need young people. You
00:50:51
need children around. Uh and then they
00:50:53
will of course be the next generation to
00:50:54
drive things forward. So you we've got
00:50:56
to have loads more loads more kids.
00:50:58
>> New year always has a strange energy to
00:51:00
it because people start talking about
00:51:02
their goals, fresh starts, and new
00:51:03
habits. But the reality is that most
00:51:05
people carry the same ideas they had
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last year into the new year. I'm guilty
00:51:09
of that, too. And they still don't end
00:51:10
up doing anything with them. And I get
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And what do you think of Kier Starmmer
00:53:00
and the way he's leading the UK?
00:53:02
>> It's very tempting always. We come back
00:53:05
to the Biden Trump left right thing to
00:53:07
put the blame on one specific person. I
00:53:10
don't think he's doing a good job for
00:53:12
the reasons that I told you. We we've
00:53:13
got the highest tax burden in peace time
00:53:16
history. So, he's driving business
00:53:17
through the floor. I know that you will
00:53:19
we you and I have never spoken about
00:53:21
this, but I bet you could name 50 people
00:53:24
off the top of your head who've left the
00:53:26
UK to go to other places, who run
00:53:27
businesses. You're nodding, right, for
00:53:29
people listening. But why is that
00:53:30
happening? because the business climate
00:53:32
here is not good.
00:53:34
>> Mhm.
00:53:34
>> The taxes here are very high and also
00:53:37
the quality of life here is declined.
00:53:39
>> And generally, you know, I think maybe
00:53:41
the first point you said about climate,
00:53:43
there's a pessimism.
00:53:44
>> Yes.
00:53:45
>> Why is that? Why is that?
00:53:48
>> It's self-fulfilling.
00:53:50
>> Yes.
00:53:50
>> It's like a self-fulfilling pessimism
00:53:52
where founders who are in my portfolio
00:53:53
that I've invested in will come to me
00:53:55
and say, "Hi, you know, we've just sold
00:53:57
uh 10% of the business for 20 million."
00:53:59
Yeah.
00:54:00
>> And then the next sentence will be their
00:54:01
escape plan.
00:54:02
>> Mhm.
00:54:03
>> And that didn't used to happen even 10
00:54:05
years ago.
00:54:05
>> And that's because of government policy.
00:54:08
That's the only way that this happens.
00:54:10
Right? Because if the government a keeps
00:54:12
taxing you up to your eyeballs and b
00:54:14
keeps telling you that you are evil,
00:54:17
which is what it does, right? If you're
00:54:18
rich in Britain, you are evil. That's
00:54:21
the that's the algorithm we have. And we
00:54:23
treat successful people. We immediately
00:54:26
assume that they're privileged people.
00:54:27
Well, my pet theory is that this goes
00:54:29
back to the land of gentry. The idea
00:54:33
that in this country if you were rich,
00:54:35
there was a time when that was almost
00:54:37
certainly because your dad was rich or
00:54:39
at least people thought that. And so
00:54:42
this sense that if someone is successful
00:54:44
economically, financially, it's probably
00:54:46
because they've benefited from some sort
00:54:48
of illotten privilege. It permeates
00:54:51
everything. In America, people don't
00:54:53
feel that way. They go, "You've been
00:54:54
successful because you've worked really
00:54:56
hard and you've had a great idea. I'd
00:54:58
love to learn from you. I'd love to be
00:54:59
more like you." In Britain, we go,
00:55:01
"You've been successful. You know, we
00:55:03
got to tax you." So, if the government
00:55:06
keeps taxing you and then telling you
00:55:07
you're a bad person while you pay the
00:55:09
overwhelming share of the taxes in the
00:55:11
country, it's not a great place to be.
00:55:14
You know, if I come home tonight and my
00:55:16
wife says, "Yeah, you earn all the
00:55:17
money, but you're a dick and I don't
00:55:18
like you." And
00:55:21
after a while, you sort of go, well, if
00:55:23
this isn't working, I'll go somewhere
00:55:25
where I'm wanted. Do you know what I
00:55:26
mean? And I think that's what's
00:55:28
happening to a lot of the most driven,
00:55:30
the most talented, the most successful,
00:55:32
the most creative people. And so, we're
00:55:34
driving out the business, we're driving
00:55:36
out the entrepreneurs. Then on the
00:55:38
industrial side of it, we talked about
00:55:39
it before, net zero basically means that
00:55:41
any energyintensive business is
00:55:43
completely unviable in Britain. And I'm
00:55:45
sure you've seen this with AI and lots
00:55:47
of other things. you go to where you can
00:55:50
do your business. Then on top of that
00:55:52
you add regulation particularly in in
00:55:54
Europe which restricts your ability to
00:55:57
do things again. So there's this um you
00:56:01
and it didn't didn't have to be like
00:56:03
that. It wasn't like that in the '9s in
00:56:05
this country, right? There was a
00:56:07
positive go-getter business climate and
00:56:09
you can do that again. You just have to
00:56:11
have a leader who is willing to do that.
00:56:13
And SAM is the opposite of that. And
00:56:16
part of the reason is that they simply
00:56:18
can't do anything about the fact that we
00:56:21
are spending huge amounts of money uh
00:56:24
keeping lots and lots of people trapped
00:56:26
in welfare against in many ways against
00:56:30
their interest and actually in some ways
00:56:31
I would argue even against their will
00:56:33
because and I've made this point before
00:56:36
if you said to you're a very driven
00:56:38
person. I'm a very driven person, but
00:56:40
when I was in my early 20s, if you'd
00:56:43
said to me, "You don't need to work."
00:56:46
You know, I know you're feeling a bit
00:56:47
depressed, as I was in my early 20s. I
00:56:49
wasn't sure what I was doing with life.
00:56:50
You're a bit depressed. You're a bit
00:56:51
anxious. I remember going to apply for a
00:56:53
job and just sweating buckets cuz I was
00:56:55
so anxious. Right. Well, you've got
00:56:58
anxiety, you've got depression, you
00:57:00
can't work. We'll give you 20 grand a
00:57:02
year and you can just, you know, we'll
00:57:04
write you off and you just sit home,
00:57:06
play on the PlayStation, smoke weed. I
00:57:08
would have taken that. Most people would
00:57:09
have taken that. And that's the position
00:57:11
we have put a lot of our young people
00:57:13
in. Uh we just ride them off. We give
00:57:15
them benefits and we forget about them.
00:57:17
And that welfare bill has become a
00:57:20
unsustainable, but it's also uncutable.
00:57:22
They try the Labor government tried to
00:57:24
cut it. They tried to reform welfare and
00:57:26
their own backbenches revolted and they
00:57:28
caved and they said, "No, no, no. We're
00:57:30
not going to reform welfare. We're going
00:57:31
to tax the rich because the rich, you
00:57:32
know, don't pay enough tax." when in the
00:57:34
reality I think the top you maybe look
00:57:36
this up 10 the top 10% of taxpayers in
00:57:39
this country pay
00:57:41
I think more than half of all the tax
00:57:44
probably significantly more than half of
00:57:46
all the tax but look it up I think the
00:57:48
top 1% pay 33% of all the tax fact check
00:57:51
me on this
00:57:53
>> okay so the top 10% of taxpayers
00:57:57
pay 60% of all income tax
00:58:00
>> yeah and also um what's the other one
00:58:02
the capital gains as well. If you look
00:58:04
up capital gains, it's basically the
00:58:06
same. So if you put those two together,
00:58:07
which is basically what we pay on
00:58:10
earning, the top 10% pay 60% of it. So
00:58:14
what happens when you chase out those
00:58:17
people, which is what we're doing. What
00:58:18
happens to your tax base? You get less
00:58:20
and less tax. That means you have to tax
00:58:23
the people who haven't left yet more and
00:58:24
more in order to pay people who are not
00:58:28
who are net consumers of tax revenues.
00:58:31
According to HM revenue and customs data
00:58:34
in the UK, the top 1% pay 30% of all
00:58:38
income.
00:58:38
>> I said 33. So 30. Yeah.
00:58:40
>> Yeah. So what happens when you say that
00:58:43
1% are evil and they must pay more? 1%
00:58:48
pay 30% of all the tax.
00:58:50
>> It's funny. I'm quite a torn person on
00:58:52
this subject because I I represent kind
00:58:54
of two sides of this argument. The first
00:58:56
side of the argument, I just have this
00:58:58
sort of visceral memory of being sat at
00:59:01
my desk in Mosside with these like baiff
00:59:03
letters on my right, this smashed up
00:59:04
laptop on my left, knowing that I had no
00:59:06
way of eating that day and thinking,
00:59:08
"Oh, I you know what I need to do?
00:59:10
There's this thing called jobsekers
00:59:12
allowance."
00:59:13
>> And I was like messing with the do I
00:59:15
join it cuz like right now I'm like
00:59:16
scavenging for pound coins to see if I
00:59:18
can buy some Chinese from Young Dar
00:59:20
Takeaway. And I printed off the forms
00:59:23
and the forms were there in front of me
00:59:24
on the desk to apply for jobsekers
00:59:26
allowance when I was maybe 18 years old,
00:59:27
roughly that age, 18, 19 years old. And
00:59:30
because I got so close, I have the huge
00:59:32
amount of empathy for people that
00:59:34
>> get to that point. And then on the other
00:59:36
side, because I'm now in a different
00:59:38
world
00:59:39
>> and I I'm around entrepreneurs so much
00:59:42
who are
00:59:43
>> so so frequently telling me their escape
00:59:45
plan from the UK that I feel the need to
00:59:48
let the average the the normal person
00:59:50
that's listening to this podcast that
00:59:51
maybe doesn't have the access to
00:59:53
entrepreneurs or the inside
00:59:54
conversations that that I have with
00:59:56
entrepreneurs know that when people come
00:59:58
on the show and tell you that rich
01:00:00
people will leave, it is my experience
01:00:04
that rich people leave and like because
01:00:07
there there is an argument ongoing
01:00:08
argument no they won't leave and there
01:00:10
people point out different things no
01:00:11
they they leave they leave I mean we
01:00:13
just saw Revolute which is one of the
01:00:15
the most successful companies emerge
01:00:17
from the UK in recent times it's
01:00:19
probably going to be worth a hundred
01:00:20
billion the founder left
01:00:22
>> I think it's Dubai or somewhere it's
01:00:24
gone to
01:00:24
>> and people say well Britain can't
01:00:26
compete with a zero tax environment we
01:00:28
don't need to compete with a zero tax
01:00:29
environment people want to live in
01:00:31
Britain still you just have to stop
01:00:34
clobbering over them over the head and
01:00:35
calling them evil.
01:00:37
>> Right.
01:00:37
>> Yeah.
01:00:38
>> Now, look, you know, I can give you a
01:00:40
sob story as well. Like when I was at
01:00:42
university, I had no I had to stop
01:00:44
university cuz I couldn't pay for it. I
01:00:45
slept on the street in a park. Blah blah
01:00:48
blah blah blah. Empathy for days for
01:00:50
people who are in that position. And
01:00:53
there are lots of people, by the way,
01:00:54
and this is important to say, Stephen,
01:00:56
who are not in your position. They're
01:00:58
not super talented. They're not
01:00:59
predisposed to success. They're not as
01:01:01
hardworking and motivated as you for
01:01:03
whatever reason. And many people are
01:01:04
disabled. Many people have all sorts of
01:01:06
other issues. And of course, we've got
01:01:07
to help them. But what we have done is
01:01:10
trapped now hundreds of thousands, if
01:01:13
not millions of people who could be
01:01:14
working and have meaning and purpose in
01:01:17
their life on welfare and we're not
01:01:20
helping them get off it because it's
01:01:22
much easier to give them a payout and
01:01:23
forget about them. That's what's
01:01:25
happening. And so, you know, I've had
01:01:27
these views since before I was in any
01:01:29
way successful. I just looked at what
01:01:31
works. And when we talk about rich
01:01:34
people leaving, the thing is I don't
01:01:35
care about rich people leaving. People
01:01:37
who have a lot of money leaving is not
01:01:39
really an issue for me. What's an issue
01:01:41
for me is people who are going to create
01:01:44
wealth leaving. So on that point, the
01:01:47
founder of Revolute leaving the UK, Nick
01:01:50
Strinsky, I think his name is, um,
01:01:53
estimates say, credible reports say that
01:01:56
because he's leaving, there's going to
01:01:58
be a3 billion pound potential loss of
01:02:01
capital gains tax that he would have
01:02:04
paid had he not absconded to the UAE.
01:02:07
Now to put this into more stark terms
01:02:09
what that means. I then um did some
01:02:11
research and I was looking at how many
01:02:13
people it would take to pay that 3
01:02:15
billion. How many average taxpayers it
01:02:16
would take to pay that 3 billion that we
01:02:18
that we lose by him leaving.
01:02:20
>> And it says roughly £450,000
01:02:24
average UK taxpayers because the average
01:02:25
UK taxpayer pays about £7,000 to £7,500
01:02:29
a year. So very simple math 3 billion
01:02:32
divided by 7,000 equals 430,000 people.
01:02:36
Mhm.
01:02:36
>> So in plain English, that billionaire's
01:02:39
potential tax bill is equal to the
01:02:41
entire income tax of a midsized UK city
01:02:45
for one year because that person decided
01:02:48
to leave.
01:02:48
>> Congratulations, you tax the rich.
01:02:51
Congratulations. Now half a million
01:02:53
people have to pay more tax.
01:02:56
Well done.
01:02:59
That's what we're doing. And because
01:03:02
it's become a moral argument because the
01:03:04
rich are evil
01:03:06
in our mentality,
01:03:08
people don't hear this point at all. It
01:03:10
just totally goes over their head. They
01:03:12
go, you know, but but the rich are evil,
01:03:13
they must pay more tax. And you go, even
01:03:16
if I agreed with you, it still doesn't
01:03:19
work in practice.
01:03:22
So if something is not working in
01:03:24
practice, why would you keep doing it?
01:03:27
I think as well, you know, one of your
01:03:28
other points was around what the UK has
01:03:31
to offer them. And I think if the UK was
01:03:33
really growth focused and you know, the
01:03:35
energy point you made, energy was
01:03:37
cheaper here, then
01:03:39
>> that equation that these founders are
01:03:41
making whether to stay or to leave would
01:03:43
tilt a little bit further in our
01:03:44
direction. So, it's super it's so
01:03:46
difficult.
01:03:47
>> And no, no disrespect to Dubai, but most
01:03:50
people don't want to have to live in
01:03:52
Dubai.
01:03:53
I think the UK is a lovely honestly I
01:03:55
mean
01:03:55
>> that's what I mean right and I say this
01:03:57
with there's lots of great appealing
01:03:58
things about Dubai but if you dealt with
01:04:00
prime in the UK and you had a growth
01:04:04
focused mindset you had a tax climate
01:04:06
that encouraged people to start
01:04:08
businesses and employ people we wouldn't
01:04:10
be losing these people and we shouldn't
01:04:12
be losing these people they are they are
01:04:13
the people who will create the wealth of
01:04:15
the future and they should be doing it
01:04:17
here they should be founding and keeping
01:04:18
their businesses here and if you did
01:04:20
that then you start to turn the whole
01:04:23
thing we've been talking about around
01:04:24
because ultimately everything is about
01:04:26
economics in in this sense the military
01:04:29
is about economics.
01:04:31
It's about do you have the resources to
01:04:33
have a strong military? We don't. So we
01:04:35
don't.
01:04:36
>> So which leader do we need?
01:04:38
>> Again, I don't like getting into the
01:04:40
personality side of things. But what you
01:04:42
need is someone who understands how the
01:04:44
economy works.
01:04:45
>> Why don't you like getting into the
01:04:46
personality side of things?
01:04:48
>> Because what happens when if I give you
01:04:50
a name?
01:04:50
>> Yeah.
01:04:51
>> Then immediately people say, "Oh, he's
01:04:53
one of them."
01:04:55
>> Okay.
01:04:55
>> Right. I am not one of them of any them.
01:04:58
I'm just telling you what the policies
01:05:00
are that I think would work for our
01:05:01
country. If Kia Starama tomorrow came on
01:05:05
your show and said, "Stephen, I'm here
01:05:07
to announce a great British
01:05:08
transformation. We're going to cut
01:05:10
business taxes. We're going to get rid
01:05:12
of net zero. We're going to make sure
01:05:13
that we have the cheapest energy in the
01:05:15
world for our businesses to grow and
01:05:17
thrive. We're going to have a strong,
01:05:19
capable military. And by the way, I've
01:05:21
just hired 50,000 new police officers to
01:05:23
deal with all the ridiculous amounts of
01:05:24
street crime we've got in London. Sign
01:05:27
me up. I'm all K star ride or die,
01:05:31
right? But that's probably not going to
01:05:34
happen. That's probably not going to
01:05:35
happen with any of the other leaders
01:05:37
that we have. So, I'm here telling you
01:05:39
what I think the right policies are. And
01:05:41
if there's a leader who advocates for
01:05:43
those policies, that's the sort of
01:05:44
leader that I will support.
01:05:46
>> Only 18% of Britons view Karma
01:05:48
positively.
01:05:49
>> Yeah.
01:05:50
>> With around 65 to 72% holding an
01:05:53
unfavorable opinion.
01:05:55
>> You're desperate for me to slag off
01:05:56
Karma. I'm happy to do it.
01:05:58
>> No, no. I'm I'm actually not. I'm
01:05:59
actually not. Do you know what? Do you
01:06:01
know what my opinion? Kiss Dharma?
01:06:02
Probably a really nice person.
01:06:04
>> Probably
01:06:04
>> probably a really nice person.
01:06:05
>> Yeah. I don't really care how nice he
01:06:07
is. And that's my attitude to all
01:06:08
politicians. I care about whether
01:06:10
they're going to do things that are good
01:06:12
for our country. Uh from what I know,
01:06:14
he's probably he strikes me as a very uh
01:06:17
well-intentioned, probably fairly
01:06:19
competent person.
01:06:21
>> Uh but what he's doing is completely
01:06:23
wrong. The only reason I don't like to
01:06:25
go in on him is I think he I I think
01:06:28
he's useless. I do. I also don't think
01:06:30
it's fair to lay the blame for
01:06:32
everything that's happening at his feet.
01:06:34
The Conservatives were useless before
01:06:36
that. The Lib Dems and the Conservatives
01:06:38
were useless before that. The Labour
01:06:39
Party under Blair were actually not
01:06:41
useless. They were really really good at
01:06:42
ter doing terrible things to the
01:06:44
country. They were very competent at
01:06:46
doing that. So what we have had for now
01:06:50
one, two, three decades is terrible
01:06:52
leadership that's taken us in completely
01:06:53
the wrong direction.
01:06:54
>> I I'm I'm I have to cite the statistics
01:06:58
around his favorability or popularity
01:07:00
because it puts everything you're saying
01:07:01
in context, which is these ideas aren't
01:07:03
popular.
01:07:03
>> No. Polling has shown that Stalmer's
01:07:05
approval among the British public is the
01:07:07
weakest of any recent UK prime minister
01:07:09
with dissatisfaction levels on some
01:07:11
trackers showing him to be below most
01:07:15
predecessors um in even in the Labor
01:07:17
government. So that's the the weird part
01:07:19
because it's not it's doesn't seem to be
01:07:21
working to drive favorability either.
01:07:24
>> No, but but this is why I'm saying
01:07:26
focusing on him individually isn't
01:07:27
helpful actually. And this is not to
01:07:29
argue with you unnecessarily. If you put
01:07:31
Chem Bono in his place, she'd have the
01:07:33
same favorability ratings.
01:07:36
>> Really? Even though she has different
01:07:37
ideas.
01:07:38
>> Does she?
01:07:39
>> I don't know. You tell me.
01:07:40
>> She has some different ideas. I mean,
01:07:42
the Conservative Party's gone a long way
01:07:44
to changing their policy on things like
01:07:46
net zero, right? But while they were in
01:07:48
power, they were doing all the same
01:07:50
stuff. They were arresting people for
01:07:52
tweets. They were driving the economy
01:07:55
into the ground with this green lunacy.
01:07:57
They were the ones that oversaw the
01:07:58
decline of our military. So uh in in in
01:08:01
some ways the personality conversation
01:08:03
is really not that important here.
01:08:05
What's important is a gigantic paradigm
01:08:07
shift needs to happen to our attitude to
01:08:10
everything. And one of them is dealing
01:08:12
with unaffordable welfare. The tries
01:08:14
didn't do that. Labor aren't doing it. I
01:08:16
actually thought Labor had a better shot
01:08:18
because at least people wouldn't say
01:08:20
labor are evil and they hate poor
01:08:21
people. That's what they say when the
01:08:23
Tories tried to cut welfare. When Labor
01:08:24
tried to cut welfare, I didn't think
01:08:26
that would happen, but they just caved
01:08:27
to their own backbench. Maybe they had
01:08:29
to for political reasons. But you you
01:08:31
you just have to the the shift that
01:08:33
needs to happen in Britain is not
01:08:34
political. It's cultural. We have to
01:08:36
change the mindset that we have as a
01:08:38
country around these things.
01:08:40
>> Cultural transitions are very very very
01:08:43
hard. And I say that from the
01:08:44
perspective as a business owner. If you
01:08:46
tried to get me to change when I had a
01:08:48
lot of people, so say you I remember in
01:08:50
my German office back in the day in
01:08:52
social change German office, we had 150
01:08:54
people. Very very different culture to
01:08:55
the UK. I thought naively as a 23 24
01:08:58
year old I could fly there
01:09:00
>> and change the culture of the Berlin
01:09:02
office.
01:09:05
>> How dumb was I?
01:09:06
>> This is not how we do things.
01:09:08
>> I could not change I could not change
01:09:10
the culture of the German the Berlin
01:09:11
office. So I think about a country
01:09:13
changing the culture of a country.
01:09:15
>> Yeah. That's why I'm what I call an
01:09:17
accelerationist.
01:09:18
>> What does that mean? It means that I
01:09:20
believe that the only thing the only way
01:09:22
that these things will truly
01:09:23
fundamentally get better is when they
01:09:25
get really really bad first.
01:09:27
>> So you think it's going to get really
01:09:28
really
01:09:29
>> the only way to change the culture is
01:09:31
for people to understand what's actually
01:09:33
happening uh so that they can't pretend
01:09:36
the things that are happening are not
01:09:37
happening. And that's what's happening
01:09:39
at the moment. Most people don't yet
01:09:41
quite know that they're poorer today
01:09:43
than they were 20 years ago. Most people
01:09:45
still think that we are saving the
01:09:47
planet when we reduce Britain's carbon
01:09:50
emissions from 2% to 1.9% of global
01:09:53
carbon emissions. While in fact, we're
01:09:55
not even doing that. We're taking our
01:09:57
carbon emissions and we're sending them
01:09:59
to India and China and then shipping
01:10:01
back the stuff they make for us in a
01:10:03
dirtier way on big tankers which
01:10:05
actually consume more dirty fuel and
01:10:07
we're actually ending up increasing our
01:10:09
CO2 output, not reducing it. Most people
01:10:12
don't know that. But when they feel it
01:10:14
in their pocket, when they feel like the
01:10:17
we're having a fiscal crisis, when they
01:10:19
feel like they really can't afford their
01:10:20
life anymore, that's when they're going
01:10:22
to start to ask some of these questions.
01:10:23
It's one of the reasons actually the
01:10:25
narrative on net zero is shifting. Like
01:10:27
almost nobody other than the government
01:10:28
in this country still believes in the
01:10:30
idea of net zero, right? Because it's
01:10:33
moving quite quickly in that direction.
01:10:35
Uh and on lots of other things, it will
01:10:37
happen when things get much more
01:10:38
difficult for ordinary people. Sadly, I
01:10:41
don't want that to happen, but I think
01:10:42
it's the only way things get better.
01:10:44
>> But on the subject of global warming,
01:10:46
it's scientific fact that the climate is
01:10:49
changing.
01:10:50
>> Changing unfavorably.
01:10:51
>> Uh what do you mean by unfavorably?
01:10:52
>> Well, if the you know, scientists talk
01:10:54
about the poles melting and how that
01:10:56
will have big impact on you know third
01:10:58
world nations and
01:11:00
>> um how that will be a net negative for
01:11:03
the planet because then you'll see more
01:11:04
migration, you'll see more sort of
01:11:06
natural disasters and those kinds of
01:11:08
things. Well, let's let's not argue
01:11:10
about that because neither of us is a
01:11:11
climate scientist, but let's accept that
01:11:12
for the sake of argument.
01:11:15
>> How is outsourcing our carbon emissions
01:11:18
to other countries
01:11:20
>> while destroying our economy?
01:11:23
>> That's I mean
01:11:24
>> making that better.
01:11:25
>> It's not.
01:11:25
>> It's not right.
01:11:27
>> And that's all I'm saying. All I'm
01:11:29
saying is we are pretending to be saving
01:11:31
the planet when we are not saving the
01:11:33
planet while also destroying our economy
01:11:36
while also making sure that pensioners
01:11:39
in this country die every winter cuz
01:11:41
they can't afford to pay the heating
01:11:43
bills that they need to pay to stay warm
01:11:47
in in what is a first world country.
01:11:50
That's what's happening and it's
01:11:52
happening because of government policy.
01:11:55
So we are not saving the planet by
01:11:58
killing pensioners. I I'm not in favor
01:12:00
of killing pensioners.
01:12:02
>> Have you ever thought about going into
01:12:03
politics? Are you eligible for
01:12:05
>> eligible? Yes. Have I ever thought about
01:12:07
it? No. I I people offer me to go into
01:12:10
politics regularly, but it it's just
01:12:12
it's not my game.
01:12:14
>> Why? You know, you when you talked about
01:12:16
your mission, Yeah. it seems very
01:12:18
aligned with
01:12:19
>> going into politics.
01:12:20
>> I feel I have way more influence doing
01:12:21
what I do now
01:12:22
>> than being, I don't know, prime
01:12:23
minister. Well, that's extremely
01:12:25
unlikely than being the the MP for the
01:12:28
whatever on C who who gets one chance to
01:12:30
ask a question of prime minister. No,
01:12:32
no, no, no, no. I get to speak to way
01:12:35
more people and to persuade more people
01:12:36
and to articulate ideas in a much more
01:12:40
unfiltered sense. And I think that's
01:12:41
really important in the modern climate.
01:12:43
What happens when you become a
01:12:44
politician is you start having to talk
01:12:47
the party line and then you suddenly
01:12:49
don't quite follow what you actually
01:12:51
believe. Now you have to adjust and you
01:12:52
have to say, well, you know, the party
01:12:55
believes this. Well, I'm not interested
01:12:57
in speaking for the party. I'm
01:12:58
interested for describing things in
01:13:00
reality as I see them. And then if there
01:13:03
are politicians who want to take that
01:13:04
on, that's their job, not mine. I just
01:13:06
don't have the temperament for it
01:13:08
either. I just I'm much more interested
01:13:10
about in the truth than I am in getting
01:13:13
along with people, coalition building,
01:13:16
caring about potholes, you know, all of
01:13:18
this other stuff. In this multipolar
01:13:20
world, this is how we got to the
01:13:21
subject. I asked you who would benefit
01:13:23
and is it a good thing? Yeah. And then I
01:13:24
asked you is is it a good thing for
01:13:26
Europe? And you said no. Yeah.
01:13:27
>> Who is it a good thing for?
01:13:28
>> China
01:13:30
>> because they get to do
01:13:33
>> do what they want, whatever that is.
01:13:36
They're much less restrained by the US.
01:13:39
It's good for India for same reasons. Uh
01:13:43
is it good for Russia? We'll find out.
01:13:45
>> Possibly.
01:13:46
>> Good for America.
01:13:48
>> Yes and no. Oh, I think it's that that
01:13:49
is more complicated. I think America
01:13:52
will be able to get what it wants in
01:13:54
that world, but it's probably going to
01:13:56
find itself in a lot more confrontations
01:13:58
internationally, and that will obviously
01:14:00
be a drain on its resources and and its
01:14:02
energy.
01:14:03
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Make sure you keep what I'm about to say
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01:15:54
I will speak to you there.
01:15:57
>> Have we ever been in a multipolar world
01:15:59
through history?
01:16:00
>> Well, yeah, loads of times.
01:16:02
>> What happened next? Look, a friend of
01:16:03
mine, very good friend of mine gave me
01:16:05
uh the the history of the English-sp
01:16:08
speakaking peoples by Winston Churchill
01:16:09
and it talks about the history of this
01:16:11
country of England in particular and
01:16:13
basically you go from strong ruler and
01:16:16
then he has no no heir. You have a
01:16:19
period of weakness and what happens
01:16:20
there's a big power struggle over the
01:16:22
throne over over power. This is this is
01:16:25
what's going to happen. you are going to
01:16:27
see more instability, more violence,
01:16:30
more attempts to fight for dominance in
01:16:32
the world. It's going to be a much more
01:16:33
unstable period of time. Unfortunately,
01:16:35
it's one of the reasons I've been so
01:16:37
passionate about trying to say let's not
01:16:40
let's not allow this to happen.
01:16:42
>> Instability.
01:16:43
>> Yeah. in terms of war, in terms of
01:16:46
>> in terms of war, in terms of conflict,
01:16:48
in terms of people to trying to redraw
01:16:51
maps, in terms of people trying to get
01:16:55
access to resources that otherwise would
01:16:56
have been considered unchallengeable,
01:16:58
etc. Yeah,
01:16:59
>> I was looking back through history and I
01:17:01
was asking the question, has there been
01:17:04
a multipolar world before? And there's
01:17:06
these moments through history, fifth
01:17:08
century BC with ancient Greece, um 19th
01:17:11
centur 19th century Europe between the
01:17:14
1850s and 1914s, the wearing states of
01:17:18
China in 475 BC. And then my next
01:17:21
question was what happens next?
01:17:24
>> And the short answer is more friction,
01:17:28
less restraint, higher risk.
01:17:30
Realistically, the first thing that
01:17:32
happens is rules weaken, which I guess
01:17:34
is kind of what we're seeing at the
01:17:35
moment
01:17:36
>> with this whole idea of international
01:17:37
law.
01:17:39
>> Regional wars begin, not one big war.
01:17:41
Arms races accelerate. Some alliances
01:17:44
harden, economic fragmentation, domestic
01:17:47
pressure rises, so higher defense
01:17:50
spending, higher taxes, etc., um, lower
01:17:52
growth.
01:17:54
And the three end games history keeps
01:17:56
showing that we have managed chaos,
01:17:59
major war, a reset, and then a new hedge
01:18:04
hegeimon emerges.
01:18:05
>> Yes.
01:18:06
>> What the does that mean?
01:18:07
>> Hegeimon is the one dominant power that
01:18:09
that that sort of in the same way that
01:18:11
the US had that moment between 91 and
01:18:14
recently when it was the only undisputed
01:18:17
power in the world.
01:18:18
>> Do you agree with that pattern of
01:18:19
events? Well, I was going to say you
01:18:20
sort of make it look like I've got all
01:18:22
my ideas from AI, but yeah. Yeah. But
01:18:25
but but the see this is the thing is
01:18:26
like before we started I said to you,
01:18:28
Stephen, do me one favor. Don't present
01:18:30
me as an expert cuz I'm just a guy
01:18:32
thinking from first principles and
01:18:33
explaining the basics as I understand
01:18:35
them. All of this is common sense
01:18:37
because ultimately it comes back to
01:18:39
human nature, right? We are a tribal
01:18:42
competitive species. That's what we are.
01:18:45
So when there isn't a dominant force
01:18:48
that everyone respects and accepts as
01:18:50
the leader, what happens every single
01:18:54
time when you have a power vacuum, you
01:18:56
have a power struggle. That's what we
01:18:59
are seeing and that's what you're going
01:19:00
to see. It's human nature. It's not
01:19:03
about knowing geopolitics and having
01:19:05
studied international theory for 40
01:19:07
years. It's just basic human nature.
01:19:10
When there when there is a dispute about
01:19:12
who the leader is, that always creates
01:19:15
the thing that AI just told you.
01:19:18
>> Well, the next step in that is a power
01:19:20
struggle.
01:19:20
>> Yeah. But that's what you're seeing now.
01:19:22
>> But in there's never been a nuclear,
01:19:24
>> right? And nuclear weapons have been the
01:19:26
great force for peace. We had the the
01:19:28
great historian from the rest is
01:19:29
history, Dominic Samrach, on the show
01:19:31
and I asked him about this and he said,
01:19:32
"Yeah, I mean nuclear weapons is why we
01:19:34
haven't had a major war and it's maybe
01:19:38
the one thing that will constrain our
01:19:41
ability to have a major war." It's one
01:19:44
possibility.
01:19:46
It's also the great risk.
01:19:49
>> Maybe this is where the cycle ends
01:19:51
because of nuclear weapons is what
01:19:52
you're saying. Maybe this is
01:19:54
>> um yeah, I'm I'm I am hopeful on that
01:19:57
front actually. I I am hopeful that
01:19:59
human beings ultimately the instinct for
01:20:01
self-preservation is so strong that we
01:20:02
do not go there. I think that's that's
01:20:05
by far and away the most likely
01:20:06
scenario. But of course, it is something
01:20:08
that humans have to reckon with and we
01:20:10
have to be very very careful as things
01:20:12
more and by the way nuclear weapons
01:20:15
may not be the most powerful weapons
01:20:16
that exist in the world 20 years from
01:20:18
now.
01:20:21
in such a world and I know you don't
01:20:22
like it being about individuals but
01:20:24
Trump is a certain type of leader
01:20:27
>> you know quite unapologetic in what he
01:20:29
says
01:20:30
>> I think he's got even more unapologetic
01:20:32
because he only has a couple of years
01:20:34
left and he can't be reelected because
01:20:35
of the laws are you concerned that if a
01:20:38
different type of leader
01:20:40
arrived into power in the US maybe
01:20:43
someone who China and Russia thought was
01:20:48
less likely to
01:20:50
send the the the jets in at nighttime
01:20:52
and bomb nuclear bunkers or snatch a
01:20:54
president from their house.
01:20:56
>> Would that be a risk for the West in
01:20:57
your view?
01:20:58
>> Massive.
01:20:59
>> So do you think
01:21:00
>> but that's how we got here. This is why
01:21:02
that withdrawal from Afghanistan
01:21:04
embarrassing as it was is exactly how
01:21:06
you get everything else. It's just one
01:21:08
symptom of people thinking we talked
01:21:10
about October 7th, we talked about the
01:21:12
invasion of Ukraine, right? That's what
01:21:15
happens when they see weakness. This is
01:21:18
what happens. I remember, you know, um
01:21:20
it's kind of funny. It shows the
01:21:21
cultural differences between the Russian
01:21:23
mindset and the Western mindset because
01:21:24
the Jungle Book that we had in the
01:21:26
Soviet Union is very different to the
01:21:28
one that you see that you guys had here.
01:21:30
Did you see Jungle, you know, the
01:21:31
original Jungle Book?
01:21:32
>> The Disney one?
01:21:33
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You know, it's
01:21:34
all have the, you know, uh
01:21:36
>> context you should probably say where
01:21:37
you come from because
01:21:38
>> I'm from from the Soviet Union. I was
01:21:40
born there. Um and
01:21:42
>> your your father, you've got mother and
01:21:43
father that Ukrainian and Russian.
01:21:45
>> Yeah. Basically. Yeah. Um, so the Soviet
01:21:48
Jungle Book adaptation, very different.
01:21:50
And there's this the one of the opening
01:21:52
scenes is Akella, who is the lead wolf.
01:21:54
He's the the wolf, the leader of the
01:21:56
wolf pack. They're on a hunt and he
01:21:59
they're hunting and he misses the he's
01:22:02
supposed to grab the animal and he
01:22:03
misses. And suddenly the cry goes around
01:22:06
the jungle. I ke
01:22:09
knows what that means.
01:22:11
Everybody knows when the leader shows
01:22:13
weakness and fails, that's the moment
01:22:17
when everything goes to and there's
01:22:19
a power struggle for his role because
01:22:21
he's no longer top dog.
01:22:24
It's really as simple as that.
01:22:28
>> So, do you think Trump's a good thing
01:22:29
for the West?
01:22:31
>> Trump is a good thing for America.
01:22:33
>> I think what he's done by virtue of his
01:22:35
behavior is he's exposed the weakness of
01:22:38
Europe. And there is a cleave now
01:22:41
happening between Europe and America.
01:22:43
And to that extent, I think it could be
01:22:45
a good thing for Europe if Europe gets
01:22:48
its act together and says, "Actually,
01:22:49
we've got to wake up from the nightmare
01:22:51
that we've created for ourselves and
01:22:53
start acting differently." If that
01:22:55
happens, it will also be a good thing
01:22:56
for the West. That is not what's
01:22:58
happening right now. It's going in the
01:22:59
exact opposite direction.
01:23:00
>> What would it take for you to leave the
01:23:01
UK?
01:23:05
Um
01:23:07
you well look I like you know everybody
01:23:09
gets job opportunities and stuff goes
01:23:12
for a year or two somewhere that that
01:23:14
that could happen in any circumstance.
01:23:16
If you mean like for me to say I'm
01:23:17
leaving Britain never coming back. Um I
01:23:21
think it would have to be clear at the
01:23:23
next election that Britain is actually
01:23:27
going further down the path that we're
01:23:28
on. So two or three years from now, I'd
01:23:31
have to conclude that there's actually
01:23:33
no there's no way we're coming back.
01:23:34
It's over. And that's happened to great
01:23:37
countries and great civilizations in
01:23:38
history. If that's what happens, then I
01:23:40
I don't see why I should do my children
01:23:42
to living here. If we can rescue it, uh,
01:23:46
and
01:23:48
make this sounding like Trump, make
01:23:50
Britain great again, but you know what I
01:23:52
mean. Um, then I I I would love to fight
01:23:55
for that and I'd love to to have my
01:23:56
children be part of that.
01:23:58
What is the most important thing that we
01:24:00
didn't talk about that we should have
01:24:01
talked about?
01:24:02
>> This point I keep coming back to,
01:24:03
Stephen, which is we can't live in a
01:24:07
world in which we care more about how
01:24:09
things make us feel than about the
01:24:12
consequences of the actions that we take
01:24:15
so much. This is a Thomas Sol. Last time
01:24:18
you had me on, I mentioned to you what a
01:24:20
great writer and thinker Thomas Soul is.
01:24:22
I don't know if you've had a chance to
01:24:24
check out any of his work, but I
01:24:25
recommend it thoroughly to everyone
01:24:27
watching and listening. He he talks
01:24:28
about the fact that the last several
01:24:30
decades have been spent replacing what
01:24:32
works with what feels good. That's the
01:24:35
one thing we're not talking about. All
01:24:37
the policies you and I have been talking
01:24:39
about are all about what makes us feel
01:24:41
good as opposed to what actually works
01:24:44
in practice. And our conversation about
01:24:46
chasing out entrepreneurs, it's exactly
01:24:49
about that. It's exactly what it's
01:24:51
about. It's about fulfilling your
01:24:53
ideological emotional needs as opposed
01:24:56
to doing things that practically work.
01:24:59
If we can make that adjustment and get
01:25:01
back to reality, the world's our oyster.
01:25:05
>> An immigrants love letter to the West,
01:25:08
the book that you wrote. It was a smash
01:25:10
here, Sunday Times bestseller.
01:25:12
>> Yeah. Unfortunately, it gets more
01:25:14
accurate every day, which is really
01:25:15
worrying because I was very pessimistic
01:25:18
about a lot of the things I said.
01:25:19
>> That is absolutely right. You wrote
01:25:21
this, was it 2022?
01:25:22
>> 2022, it came out.
01:25:23
>> 2022.
01:25:24
>> Yeah.
01:25:25
>> And it appears to be a prediction as the
01:25:28
days go on. A prediction that is being
01:25:30
validated, unfortunately. I highly
01:25:31
recommend everybody reads this book. I'm
01:25:33
going to link it below for anyone that
01:25:34
hasn't read it. What's unique about you
01:25:37
is you do appear to be very wedded to
01:25:41
objective truth as you see it versus
01:25:43
being ideologically cap captured by
01:25:45
either side. And I've seen you I've seen
01:25:47
you both attack the right at times and
01:25:49
I've also seen you attack the left at
01:25:51
times which is it's a unique position to
01:25:54
be in in a world with algorithms that
01:25:55
try and push you into a particular echo
01:25:57
chamber.
01:25:59
I guess on that point what is it about
01:26:01
the the right that you take most issue
01:26:04
with at the moment?
01:26:06
>> Oh there's a thing that I've uh other
01:26:08
people have at a similar time. So, I'm
01:26:10
not claiming authorship of it, but
01:26:12
there's something that I call the woke
01:26:14
right, uh, which is essentially an
01:26:17
identitarian resentment victimhood-based
01:26:20
movement on the right, represented by
01:26:22
the sort of extreme characters like Nick
01:26:23
Fuentes and Candace Owens in the United
01:26:26
States. You know, their worldview is
01:26:28
that they they've been oppressed. You
01:26:30
know, the work narrative was we are
01:26:32
oppressed. Well, now they say we we've
01:26:33
been oppressed and uh it's all the fault
01:26:37
of various groups, the Jews, the
01:26:39
whoevers. So, it's a kind of um there's
01:26:42
almost, you know, I think it's fair to
01:26:43
say that there are elements of it that
01:26:45
are just openly fascistic and and and
01:26:47
reminiscent of the Nazis that we saw in
01:26:49
the 1930s ideologically speaking. Um,
01:26:52
and the mainstream right has utterly
01:26:55
rejected these people, which I think is
01:26:56
really reassuring. But there are some
01:26:58
people who who say well actually no no
01:27:01
we need to include them and we shouldn't
01:27:03
divide the conservative movement which I
01:27:06
think is a huge mistake from for
01:27:08
conservatives to make because their
01:27:10
movement and their reputation with
01:27:13
normal people will be very very badly
01:27:15
polluted in the eyes of independents and
01:27:17
moderate people who actually represent
01:27:19
the overwhelming majority of the public.
01:27:21
Even in America, which is so divided and
01:27:23
so partisan, the normal average person
01:27:26
will vote for this party or for that
01:27:29
party depending on what they see. And in
01:27:31
Britain, that's even more the case. And
01:27:33
so to the extent that the right, so
01:27:36
they're basically there's a risk of the
01:27:38
right repeating the mistakes of the
01:27:39
left. What happened on the left? Woke
01:27:41
people came along and they said, "We're
01:27:43
the left. Our crazy work ideas is
01:27:46
actually the left." and the sensible
01:27:48
people on the left were terrified of
01:27:50
challenging them. And so over time, most
01:27:53
people began to associate the left with
01:27:55
blue-haired, nose piercing, you know,
01:27:57
Greta Tunberg kind of ideology. And they
01:28:00
went, I don't want any of that. Well, on
01:28:02
the right, if the right allows its
01:28:04
extremist fringe to do the same thing,
01:28:06
then lots of people are going to
01:28:08
distance themselves from that. So, I
01:28:10
think the right has a tremendous
01:28:13
opportunity to, you know, we've had this
01:28:15
great tension. And I know you've had
01:28:16
Jordan Peterson on your show and I'm
01:28:18
sure he talked about chaos and order and
01:28:21
that relationship is a very fragile
01:28:22
thing in society. We have had so much
01:28:25
chaos that there is a lot of craving for
01:28:27
order now. There's a craving to deal
01:28:29
with crime. There's a craving to deal
01:28:31
with illegal immigration. There's a
01:28:32
craving to deal with cultural uh
01:28:35
disruption that we've had, right?
01:28:36
There's a craving for that sense of
01:28:38
order to come back. And if the right is
01:28:40
reasonable and sensible about addressing
01:28:43
those issues, they could be in charge
01:28:44
for a very long time and have an
01:28:46
opportunity to put some of their views
01:28:48
into public policy, which is they
01:28:49
haven't had uh the opportunity to do for
01:28:51
a long time. If they allow the
01:28:53
extremists to take over, they will be
01:28:55
painted, the entire movement will be
01:28:57
painted as the extremists and then they
01:28:59
will not have the opportunity to
01:29:01
actually implement their agenda.
01:29:04
>> Are you happy?
01:29:05
>> Very.
01:29:06
>> What makes you happy?
01:29:07
>> My family.
01:29:09
What about your family makes you happy?
01:29:11
>> Having children is a blessing. It's the
01:29:13
best thing ever. I you know I banged on
01:29:15
about this to you last time, but it is
01:29:18
>> why
01:29:18
>> why are children the best thing ever?
01:29:20
>> Yeah.
01:29:20
>> Can't explain it. It's not one of the
01:29:22
like I can find some words to give you,
01:29:25
but it's just one of those things. It's
01:29:26
like you you don't know it until you
01:29:29
have that experience. Uh I could give
01:29:31
you some nice sound bites. You know, one
01:29:34
of the things I've said in the past is
01:29:35
that the future is no longer an
01:29:37
abstraction.
01:29:38
>> What does that mean?
01:29:39
>> It means that
01:29:41
in the past I cared about this country
01:29:44
or this civilization from a fairly
01:29:48
theoretical perspective.
01:29:50
Now the future of this country is one
01:29:52
person and maybe other people coming
01:29:54
along, right? Little people that I have.
01:29:57
They are the future in my mind, right?
01:29:59
So I'm much more attached. I'm much more
01:30:01
attached to the people who came before
01:30:02
me. I have much more understanding of my
01:30:05
when you have kids, you have a much
01:30:06
better understanding of your parents cuz
01:30:08
you go, "Oh, wow." So, the reason they
01:30:11
did this stupid thing is a I'm also
01:30:14
doing it now for some reason. And also,
01:30:16
they were really dealing with all of all
01:30:18
the things that I'm now deal I've got a
01:30:19
job and I've got a relationship and I've
01:30:21
got a this and I've got a that. So, of
01:30:23
course, they sometimes behaved in ways
01:30:24
that I didn't understand or like or
01:30:26
whatever. So, you have more empathy for
01:30:28
your parents. You also have much much
01:30:30
more concern about where your country is
01:30:32
going, your nation's going, your
01:30:34
community is going, your immediate
01:30:35
environment cuz that's where your
01:30:36
children live. And then there just joy.
01:30:38
I mean, it's um there's nothing like it.
01:30:42
There's really really nothing like it.
01:30:44
It's the most wonderful thing. It's
01:30:46
hard.
01:30:47
>> It you don't sleep a lot and it's
01:30:49
stressful at times, but it's the best.
01:30:52
It's absolutely the best.
01:30:53
>> And you've got two kids.
01:30:54
>> I've got one. Uh but maybe more on the
01:30:56
way.
01:30:57
>> Oh, okay. Congratulations. Thank you.
01:30:59
>> And what what is your primary concern
01:31:01
for the world they're coming into?
01:31:04
>> Well, we've talked about all of this,
01:31:06
right? I
01:31:06
>> there was a primary
01:31:07
>> I think my primary concern for my kids
01:31:09
is that my wife and I do the best job we
01:31:12
can in raising them well. And then
01:31:14
ultimately they're going to be their own
01:31:15
people and they're going to have to deal
01:31:16
with the world in front of them in
01:31:17
exactly the same way that others before
01:31:19
have done. My grandfather uh my
01:31:22
great-grandfather
01:31:23
he was younger than me now when he was
01:31:26
sent to the Eastern Front while he had a
01:31:29
baby son at home and he never came back.
01:31:31
Human beings have had to deal with all
01:31:33
of this throughout history. We always
01:31:35
have to deal with the reality of the
01:31:36
terrible world that we face at that
01:31:38
moment in time. They're going to have to
01:31:39
do the same. I can't protect them from
01:31:41
that. What I can do is set them up in
01:31:44
the best possible way. And that's the
01:31:45
only thing I can do as a parent. That's
01:31:46
what I'm trying to do. We have a closing
01:31:48
tradition where Damascus leaves a
01:31:50
question for the next.
01:31:51
>> Yeah.
01:31:52
>> The question that's been left for you is
01:31:54
who was the biggest non-family member
01:31:57
influence in your life and how did they
01:31:59
make you a better person?
01:32:02
>> Yeah. Not fair to boil it down to one. I
01:32:05
think um I I had a teacher once who um
01:32:10
basically made me realize that it's very
01:32:14
very important to give people an
01:32:16
opportunity to prove themselves and he
01:32:18
did that by giving me an opportunity
01:32:20
when I really didn't deserve it but he
01:32:22
gave it to me and I took it. I've also
01:32:25
just intellectually Thomas Saul I I I
01:32:27
mentioned him reading his books is just
01:32:29
completely transformational for me and
01:32:30
it really helped me think about the
01:32:32
world. I think on a on a on a kind of
01:32:36
personal behavioral level I got a a huge
01:32:40
opportunity uh to to tour with Jordan
01:32:42
Peterson for three weeks a couple of
01:32:44
years back. Uh, and that was completely
01:32:46
transformational seeing him up close,
01:32:48
spending time with him, seeing that this
01:32:50
is a man who the way he is in public is
01:32:54
exactly the way that he is in in
01:32:56
private. And so he really one of those
01:32:58
very very rare people who preaches what
01:33:00
he practices. I remember we uh I think
01:33:03
it was El Paso. We arrived right on the
01:33:04
south on the on the on the border and we
01:33:07
arrived we were late from the airport
01:33:10
starving starving. And one of the things
01:33:13
that tends to happen is everyone who
01:33:15
goes to his live shows works out that he
01:33:18
might be at the best steak restaurant in
01:33:20
town
01:33:21
>> on the day. So we turn up to the steak
01:33:24
restaurant cuz he only eats steak. We're
01:33:26
starving. We sit down. Um the the waiter
01:33:30
brings the menus. We're the moment we
01:33:32
start looking at the menus. This group
01:33:33
of guys comes over guy guys and girls
01:33:36
comes over. He stands up, forgets about
01:33:39
the menu. We're starving. gives them,
01:33:41
you know, all the attention in the
01:33:43
world. Selfies, has a little chat, ask
01:33:44
them what they do, blah blah blah blah
01:33:46
blah, sits down, places the order.
01:33:49
Another group of people come over, gives
01:33:51
them the same amount of attention. And
01:33:52
by this point, we're dying of hunger.
01:33:55
Finally, our steaks arrive, and you know
01:33:57
they do in America, they say, "Please
01:33:58
check that it's been cooked properly."
01:33:59
So, he cuts in, he cuts off a piece, he
01:34:02
puts it on a fork, and as he's about to
01:34:04
place it in his mouth, a group of
01:34:07
literally 20 people shows up saying,
01:34:09
"Dr. Peterson, I'm so sorry. He puts the
01:34:12
fork down, stands up, and gives them all
01:34:15
the exact same amount of attention that
01:34:17
he'd given the previous people. And just
01:34:19
in everyone that he interacted with,
01:34:21
that's what I saw. A guy who talks about
01:34:24
living in a certain way, actually
01:34:25
practices it. And that was, you know,
01:34:27
incredibly inspiring for me. Really
01:34:29
educational, gave me a lot of thoughts
01:34:31
about my relationships, how I live my
01:34:34
life. Um, he's he's a great man.
01:34:37
>> Constantine. Thank you.
01:34:38
>> Thank you very much. Thanks for having
01:34:40
me.
01:34:40
>> Staying in the pursuit of truth and I
01:34:41
highly recommend people check out
01:34:42
trigonometry your podcast. I'm going to
01:34:44
link it below. Um and also the book is
01:34:48
going to be linked below. Is there
01:34:50
anything else?
01:34:51
>> Yes, Stephen. When are you coming on
01:34:52
trigonometry? That's the question.
01:34:53
>> I've just finished my book.
01:34:55
>> Oh,
01:34:55
>> it comes out in
01:34:56
>> UK exclusive is what I'm hearing.
01:34:59
>> Deal. Deal.
01:35:01
>> Signed.
01:35:02
>> Thank you so much. I really appreciate
01:35:03
it.
01:35:04
>> Thanks, man. I appreciate you having me.
01:35:05
I believe that we are already at the
01:35:07
early stages if not in World War II.
01:35:09
>> We are one misunderstanding, one
01:35:12
miscalculation away,
01:35:13
>> or even one AI generated viral video
01:35:16
>> from nuclear annihilation. So, here's a
01:35:19
terrifying detail that the public does
01:35:21
not know. So,
01:35:23
>> wow.