00:00:00
You've been running simulations on a war
00:00:01
with Iran.
00:00:02
>> Yep. Every strategy for 20 years and
00:00:04
it's playing out right now. So I can
00:00:06
tell you that we are losing control of
00:00:09
the situation. Like we don't know where
00:00:12
that nuclear material is, but they have
00:00:14
the material for 16 nuclear bombs and
00:00:18
we've given them every incentive to
00:00:20
develop them.
00:00:21
>> Professor Robert Pap might be the single
00:00:23
most important credible person we all
00:00:26
need to listen to right now. The Supreme
00:00:28
Leader that we took out was against
00:00:30
nuclear weapons. The new Supreme Leader,
00:00:32
and he's way more aggressive.
00:00:34
>> He's advised two decades of presidents
00:00:36
in the White House. President Trump is
00:00:38
really stuck, but he thrives in chaos
00:00:41
and spent 30 years building the
00:00:43
curriculum that trains the Air Force for
00:00:45
the exact type of war that's taking
00:00:47
place now in Iran. And one of the most
00:00:49
mind-blowing things I've learned is that
00:00:50
there are three stages to this conflict.
00:00:54
Unfortunately, Professor Robert Pape,
00:00:56
who has two decades of being correct
00:00:58
with his predictions, gives a 75%
00:01:01
chance that Trump is about to escalate
00:01:04
to stage three. In this episode, we're
00:01:06
going to explain exactly what this
00:01:08
means.
00:01:12
Guys, I've got a quick favor to ask you.
00:01:14
We're approaching a significant
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find small ways to make this whole
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being part of this journey. Means the
00:01:52
world. And uh yeah, let's do this.
00:01:58
Professor Robert P.
00:02:02
What the hell is going on in the world?
00:02:03
Now, I should ask I should ask first,
00:02:06
who are you and what have you spent the
00:02:08
last several decades of your life
00:02:10
studying and doing and how does that
00:02:12
relate to what's happening in the world
00:02:13
right now?
00:02:14
>> We are going through a crisis uh more
00:02:17
very intense right now, but it's a
00:02:19
crisis that we have been through before.
00:02:22
um 20 years ago with the Iraq war. Uh
00:02:25
even before that um we saw the bombing
00:02:27
of Gaddafi, we saw the reactions there.
00:02:30
Now I have been studying military
00:02:32
strategy, air power, international
00:02:35
terrorism, now terrorism inside the
00:02:37
United States and also political
00:02:38
violence in the United States. It's not
00:02:40
related to particular groups. So I've
00:02:43
been studying political violence for 40
00:02:46
years. What is the headline that people
00:02:49
need to be aware of when you've looked
00:02:50
at 30 years of these types of wars?
00:02:53
>> That bombs don't just hit targets, they
00:02:56
change politics.
00:02:57
>> What does that mean?
00:02:58
>> That means that before the bombs fall
00:03:01
and even as the bombs are falling now,
00:03:03
we tend to focus on the tactical success
00:03:06
of bombing. We tend to ask, did the
00:03:09
bombs hit the targets? And it's with the
00:03:12
smart bomb age, it's almost mesmerizing.
00:03:15
They hit the target and destroy the
00:03:18
target crater build crater dirt crater
00:03:20
concrete destroy buildings 90% of the
00:03:23
time. The problem is wars are not just
00:03:26
about the hardware. They're not just
00:03:29
about the military operation of putting
00:03:31
a bomb on a target. They're about
00:03:34
politics. And when the bombs start to
00:03:37
fall, the politics in both the target,
00:03:40
the enemy change and the politics in the
00:03:45
attacker, the initiator change. And that
00:03:49
threshold is the beginning of what I'm
00:03:51
calling the escalation trap because you
00:03:54
get at stage one tactical success. Often
00:03:59
what's missing here is the next
00:04:02
consideration which is politics. who
00:04:04
have you advised and at what level have
00:04:07
you advised them on strategy, war, etc.,
00:04:10
etc.
00:04:10
>> So, uh, in the when I finished my PhD,
00:04:14
uh, right away we started to fight the
00:04:16
first Gulf War, which was an allair
00:04:18
power war and I found my work from the
00:04:21
1980s suddenly more relevant than ever.
00:04:23
I was in the Washington Post, USA Today,
00:04:26
frontline uh, designing the stories
00:04:29
because, uh, we didn't have the talking
00:04:30
military heads at the time. And then I
00:04:33
get a call from the US Air Force and
00:04:35
they're asking me to come in and help
00:04:37
not just teach but to build the
00:04:40
curriculum. Then what happens as time
00:04:42
goes on, I end up I end up advising
00:04:44
every White House from 2001 to 2024 uh
00:04:49
including the first Trump White House.
00:04:51
>> I also heard that you've been running
00:04:53
simulations on a war with Iran.
00:04:56
>> Yep. The last class of every strategy
00:04:58
for 20 years. In fact, we did it just
00:05:00
last uh uh last um uh May uh just before
00:05:04
we started the bombing and 90 minutes.
00:05:06
So we the the class goes a whole quarter
00:05:09
uh strategy in all kinds of different
00:05:11
ways and we ended with the bombing of
00:05:13
Iran and what did that mean? That meant
00:05:15
we uh look took out the whole target. We
00:05:18
have the target set laid out. We have
00:05:19
the attack plans. We really go through
00:05:22
the bombing of Natans, Ford, uh Esfon
00:05:26
there. there's a number of these
00:05:28
facilities and so forth. Um, and then we
00:05:30
play out and then we look at what's
00:05:32
going to happen and what you see right
00:05:34
away is 90 plus% those B2s are going to
00:05:38
destroy those targets.
00:05:40
>> B2s being the aircraft
00:05:41
>> these stealthy aircraft that can
00:05:43
penetrate the airspace very few risk of
00:05:46
small risk of loss and then you see but
00:05:50
we don't know where the nuclear material
00:05:52
is. The whole point of this is not to
00:05:54
destroy a building. It's to get at the
00:05:58
5% 20% 60% enriched uranium. That's the
00:06:04
material for bombs. And last May, it was
00:06:07
very clear they had the material for 16
00:06:12
bombs. Now, not to
00:06:13
>> 16 nuclear bombs.
00:06:15
>> One six
00:06:15
>> nuclear bombs.
00:06:16
>> Yes, nuclear bombs. Not to produce them
00:06:18
all in a single week, but over a period
00:06:21
of months. And then at after we did that
00:06:25
simulation, we didn't know where a
00:06:26
single ounce was. And we weren't going
00:06:29
to know for months after. So at the end
00:06:32
of every I make some predictions. I say
00:06:35
what's going to happen? What's going to
00:06:37
happen is after about a year, we are
00:06:40
going to panic because that material
00:06:42
could be dispersed anywhere in Iran,
00:06:44
anywhere in that country. And that
00:06:46
country, look how big that is compared
00:06:48
to the United States.
00:06:50
could be dispersed anywhere now. And how
00:06:54
many of those are are actually
00:06:56
developing toward a bomb? We will not
00:06:58
know. So what will we do? Regime change.
00:07:01
>> From all of your years in I mean 31
00:07:04
years old you start teaching about air
00:07:06
power and and war in this regard. And
00:07:08
you are 65 now.
00:07:11
>> Yeah. What is the from everything you
00:07:13
know 30 30 plus years studying this
00:07:15
stuff Iran running simulations on Iran
00:07:18
advising the White House being a master
00:07:20
and probably arguably the most informed
00:07:22
person in the United States right now
00:07:24
about air attacks like the one the US
00:07:26
performing on Iran? What is the headline
00:07:29
that you're trying to send to the world
00:07:31
at this moment in time? Like what is it
00:07:32
we're missing? Because we're seeing
00:07:33
Trump come out and Trump say it's going
00:07:34
well. Everything's amazing. We've taken
00:07:36
out all their guys. What is what what
00:07:38
are we missing? We're missing that.
00:07:40
We're stuck in a trap of our own making.
00:07:43
I'll explain what that trap is. But the
00:07:46
key consequence of the trap is we're
00:07:48
losing control. We are losing control of
00:07:52
the situation. And what you were seeing
00:07:55
with President Trump is he's trying to
00:07:57
regain control. Now the problem is that
00:08:02
starting not just a week ago Saturday
00:08:05
but starting back in June when we took
00:08:07
out Natan's fore we started to lose
00:08:11
control and what are we losing control
00:08:13
of knowing where that nuclear material
00:08:17
is and we now have civilian satellites
00:08:21
and you can see them moving things. What
00:08:24
would they be moving around the nuclear
00:08:26
areas? I wonder you think they're moving
00:08:28
the the the the you know what are they
00:08:30
moving here? It's most likely going to
00:08:33
be that nuclear material cuz they're
00:08:36
planned
00:08:39
for this war just as we have except
00:08:42
they've been preparing for how to be
00:08:44
resilient, how to now lash back in
00:08:48
increasingly aggressive ways. They are
00:08:51
winning the escalation part of the war
00:08:54
and that's not an accident. this you can
00:08:57
see coming in stages.
00:08:59
>> But for anyone that doesn't know, we've
00:09:00
got leaders that have different levels
00:09:02
of sort of uh information and knowledge
00:09:04
here. I'm going to try and summarize
00:09:06
this and butcher it in the most uh
00:09:08
indelicate way I possibly can. So
00:09:10
earlier last year, last year the United
00:09:14
States suspected that Iran were very
00:09:17
close to enriching uranium. They're at
00:09:19
60%.
00:09:20
>> They're at 60 already.
00:09:21
>> If they get to 90%, they have a bomb. Uh
00:09:24
yes, but possibly even with the 60%
00:09:27
Stephen. It depends on just how good
00:09:29
their scientists are and we're not
00:09:31
really sure. So there's somewhere we're
00:09:33
at 60%, we're already very worried. You
00:09:36
go to 90, it's a gimme.
00:09:38
>> And then the United States dropped these
00:09:40
big bunker buster bombs. They flew those
00:09:41
B2 um airplanes in, dropped these bombs,
00:09:45
>> smashing up the site.
00:09:47
>> Yeah.
00:09:47
>> And then it felt like it was over. And
00:09:49
then we the United States went into
00:09:51
negotiations with Iran to try and get
00:09:53
some kind of deal done
00:09:54
>> to get the material we didn't get. You
00:09:57
see, why are we even talking to them? If
00:09:59
this is really obliterated the program,
00:10:01
why are we bothering to talk to them?
00:10:03
What exactly are we talking about here?
00:10:06
Do you notice the inconsistency here? So
00:10:08
when you say we thought it was over,
00:10:10
that's the public. Okay. Now the public
00:10:13
need to understand they're very busy
00:10:14
people. They're playing for the price of
00:10:16
eggs. Okay? So, this is they're not
00:10:18
supposed to be able to be up on us.
00:10:19
>> It's a good point. I've never thought
00:10:21
about.
00:10:21
>> Yeah. Why would we be talking to them?
00:10:23
>> Why Why are we talking to them? You see,
00:10:26
so right from the get-go, and and by the
00:10:28
way, all of the um it's the Israelis, uh
00:10:32
we have a thing called the Defense
00:10:33
Intelligence Agency. Um their reports
00:10:36
that were done after the bombing, uh
00:10:38
were leaked and they all say the same
00:10:40
thing, which is we created holes. We
00:10:44
probably shook these underground
00:10:46
chambers. We're not sure because we had
00:10:48
no eyeballs on that, but we have no idea
00:10:51
where that enriched uranium is. And we
00:10:54
have good reason to worry they got them
00:10:56
out because we actually have a satellite
00:10:58
picture that shows two days before we
00:11:02
bomb Ford, there's a bunch of trucks
00:11:05
moving stuff out. Gee, what do you think
00:11:08
you might move out if America's about to
00:11:11
bomb your site again? I I don't think
00:11:13
they're moving out the popcorn. So, um,
00:11:16
and it's pretty this material can be
00:11:18
moved in what look like large scuba
00:11:20
tank. They call them scuba tanks, but I
00:11:22
I I I try to show pictures of this, too.
00:11:25
They're they're they're actually like as
00:11:27
large as this table. So, you need
00:11:28
basically trucks. Trucks like that
00:11:31
satellite photography shows they took
00:11:33
out. So, so we can't say for sure, but
00:11:36
what you see is these are the
00:11:39
indications that you worry they've
00:11:41
dispersed the material even before we
00:11:43
hit the site. So,
00:11:45
>> and then we attack.
00:11:46
>> Yeah.
00:11:46
>> The United States attacks in February.
00:11:48
February 2026, which is
00:11:50
>> No. Feb. Yep. February 2026. February
00:11:52
2028. We start again. This time with
00:11:54
regime change. Notice we don't go even
00:11:57
after the physical m the nuclear
00:11:59
material. We don't know where it is. So
00:12:00
for the average person, the average
00:12:02
person would think if you take out the
00:12:03
supreme leader, then the war is over.
00:12:06
Drop the bomb on the person and the war
00:12:09
is complete.
00:12:10
>> Yeah. So let's talk about your your
00:12:11
Jenga thing here because what what I
00:12:14
find Stephen. So keep in mind I am
00:12:16
advising teaching some of the most
00:12:18
brilliant minds in the in the country.
00:12:20
Now a lot of these smart people though,
00:12:23
they don't know that they they've been
00:12:24
given like one inch deep briefings,
00:12:28
maybe even one sentence briefings. So
00:12:30
their image
00:12:32
is often like this and it's wrong. This
00:12:36
is what they think the regime looks
00:12:38
like. And they think that because
00:12:40
they've been given b they basically have
00:12:42
been consuming probably for years one or
00:12:45
two sentences about the structure. They
00:12:47
know there's a supreme leader. They
00:12:49
might know there's nuclear facilities,
00:12:51
missiles command. And so it looks like,
00:12:53
oh my goodness gracious, that if you
00:12:55
could just simply take out the right
00:12:58
node, you would be able to make this
00:13:01
whole thing fall down. Okay, but that's
00:13:05
the wrong image, Stephen. This is the
00:13:07
way smart people think. The problem is
00:13:11
this is a false image of most regimes,
00:13:15
even the bad ones, and certainly the
00:13:17
Iranian regime. Let me just focus on the
00:13:19
Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is
00:13:22
more like a matrix. It's more it's not
00:13:25
brittle the way this is. So you can keep
00:13:29
trying to pull things out but with a
00:13:32
matrix or uh I think the corporate
00:13:34
structures now are built to be adaptive
00:13:38
to change because you have so many
00:13:40
changes that happen. The structure needs
00:13:43
to adapt to change. That is basically
00:13:46
the structure of revolutionary regimes
00:13:49
going back to before World War I.
00:13:52
>> Okay. I want to ask a dumb question.
00:13:53
>> Y
00:13:54
>> when they took out the supreme leader in
00:13:56
Iran, I who's going to give out the
00:13:59
instructions?
00:14:00
>> The adaptive system adapts and fills in
00:14:05
the holes. It fills in the holes usually
00:14:09
with what's left. And in this case, the
00:14:12
supreme leader that we took out this
00:14:15
particular hole, this was the guy who
00:14:19
had two fought was they're called these
00:14:21
are religious edicts. It's like a people
00:14:24
uh edict
00:14:26
>> against nuclear weapons. It's a
00:14:28
religious he's the leader of essentially
00:14:31
the religion a little bit like the Shia
00:14:33
pope
00:14:34
>> and he um is actually issuing religious
00:14:38
doctrine
00:14:39
>> and as and that's called a fatwa and as
00:14:41
a religious doctrine he issued two that
00:14:44
said Iran should not have nuclear
00:14:46
weapons. The guy we killed was one of
00:14:50
the guard rails against nuclear weapons.
00:14:54
How does that He was He was developing
00:14:55
them in his
00:14:56
>> No, no, he's developing the enrichment
00:14:58
material. They hadn't been fashioned yet
00:15:01
that we know of as nuclear weapons.
00:15:04
Okay. So, we're worried about again this
00:15:06
enrichment going from 5% to 20%, to 60%.
00:15:11
But they hadn't actually taken that next
00:15:13
step, which is more of an engineering
00:15:15
step to develop the nuclear weapon.
00:15:18
Now we took out the person who at the
00:15:22
very tippy top was balancing the hawks
00:15:24
and doves and he had decided for decades
00:15:28
to issue this these fatwas. He did it
00:15:30
not just once but twice. His son who
00:15:33
took over the new supreme leader no
00:15:36
fatwa yet. That fatwa died with this
00:15:39
guy. So will the new leader come in? uh
00:15:42
it's not clear he's got the religious
00:15:45
authority to do anything like what his
00:15:47
father did. This is this is a very
00:15:49
different world and he's known to be way
00:15:51
more aggressive than his father. Uh he's
00:15:54
been in charge of the the bosi the uh
00:15:56
basically the uh the the police that
00:15:59
like to go and kill the protesters. He's
00:16:02
been the guy who's who's been very very
00:16:04
uh strongly uh supporting if not leading
00:16:07
that particular effort. And last night
00:16:09
it was announced that he has been
00:16:11
appointed as the new leader of
00:16:13
>> the new supreme leader.
00:16:15
>> Did did Trump expect this?
00:16:17
>> I think that he u expected it because he
00:16:19
kept trying to talk the Iranians out of
00:16:22
it. This is what he meant by uh last
00:16:25
week when President um Trump was saying
00:16:28
that he wanted um uh not this guy. He
00:16:30
specifically said not the sun. And then
00:16:33
he he had a problem because people kept
00:16:36
pushing him and they said, "Okay, well,
00:16:37
if you don't like the son, who who would
00:16:39
you pick?" And he said, "Well, it is a
00:16:41
problem because when we killed the
00:16:43
Supreme Leader, we killed around the
00:16:45
leader 20 or 30 others who we actually
00:16:47
thought were better. So, we actually
00:16:49
took out the best alternatives when we
00:16:52
killed the when the Supreme Leader was
00:16:54
killed." And every So, everybody's
00:16:56
scratching their heads going, "What are
00:16:59
we talking about here?" So, so we
00:17:01
actually helped the by killing the
00:17:03
competitors to the sun,
00:17:06
>> we made it more likely the sun. And so
00:17:08
what I'm trying to explain, Stephen, is
00:17:10
this adapts. Okay? So that you're not
00:17:12
really taking these uh pieces out.
00:17:16
You're rearranging
00:17:18
them and you are moving up in this case.
00:17:22
You're moving up
00:17:23
>> the next Supreme Leader. Well, it's
00:17:25
there's the Supreme Leader, but what
00:17:26
we're not showing here, you're see
00:17:29
you're seeing the target sets that are
00:17:31
being discussed. You're not seeing the
00:17:32
Revolutionary Guard.
00:17:34
>> What is that?
00:17:35
>> That is part of the army. The Iran has a
00:17:38
million men in arms. A million. That's
00:17:42
is that's as many as we have in our 300
00:17:45
million people. They have 92 million.
00:17:47
They have a million in arms. And about
00:17:51
150 or 200,000 of them are what are
00:17:53
called the revolutionary guards. These
00:17:55
are the most aggressive, the most uh
00:17:59
well-trained. Um these are the most
00:18:01
dedicated to the regime. The news the
00:18:04
son who just we just uh just took over
00:18:08
is the prime candidate for that group.
00:18:11
So when we took out a link here, it's
00:18:14
not just being replaced by another
00:18:17
It's being replaced by a very aggressive
00:18:19
individual who's backed by some of the
00:18:22
most aggressive part of that millionman
00:18:25
army. So this is what I was trying to
00:18:27
explain in my substacks where when you
00:18:30
take out the leader, you may kill the
00:18:33
leader, but you get in its place a
00:18:35
harder regime, a more resilient regime,
00:18:38
a tougher regime that wants to lash back
00:18:41
even more aggressively
00:18:42
>> because you killed dad.
00:18:44
>> You killed dad. And also, if you don't
00:18:47
lash back, how does the new leader get
00:18:50
his credibility with everybody else? If
00:18:52
he's a wimp, why doesn't he get a bullet
00:18:55
in the back of the head? You see the new
00:18:57
just because he's appointed a new
00:18:58
leader, he's still just just like when
00:19:01
you're the head of a new uh company like
00:19:03
let's say you take over a there's a
00:19:05
company that's in shambles and they get
00:19:07
rid of their CEO and they bring you on.
00:19:10
Okay? Well, you got to have a plan. You
00:19:12
see, and if you don't have a plan to
00:19:14
turn that thing around pretty soon, you
00:19:16
know, Elon Musk had to have the big
00:19:18
plan. If you don't have that plan, guess
00:19:20
what? You're out. Same here. So you have
00:19:24
incentive structure here for not just
00:19:27
replacing not just wimpy replacements
00:19:30
certainly not pro-American replacements.
00:19:33
You have incentives for lashing back
00:19:37
against the attacker. Which is why when
00:19:40
we tried to kill Gaddafi in 1986, he
00:19:43
lashes back and uh takes out Panama
00:19:46
Flight 103, killing 271 civilians, 190
00:19:50
Americans. When we try to take out the
00:19:53
Malloic regime to degrade it in uh March
00:19:56
99, Malloic lashes back, sending 30,000
00:20:00
ground forces into cleanse, that is get
00:20:03
rid of a million civilians in Kosovo. uh
00:20:07
this over and over.
00:20:09
>> I mean you have written books about
00:20:12
suicide terrorism.
00:20:13
>> That's right.
00:20:14
>> I've got one of them in front of me here
00:20:15
called dying to win. So I mean you know
00:20:17
a lot about this subject and this is one
00:20:19
of the concerns that actually my fiance
00:20:20
had said to me. She said I explained to
00:20:22
her I was like you know Iran they really
00:20:23
just have drones at the moment so I
00:20:25
think that's fine. And then she posed a
00:20:27
question to me. She was like yeah but
00:20:28
what about suicide terrorism?
00:20:30
>> Let me just explain. So here we are. It
00:20:33
is uh here is of course Iran and imagine
00:20:37
it's back in June. So I'm going to start
00:20:39
the story in June. This is the beginning
00:20:41
of the smart bomb the escalation trap
00:20:43
stage one. We hit uh Foro which is right
00:20:47
around there and then we hit Natans uh
00:20:49
and some other sites right around here.
00:20:52
And what does Iran do here? They lash
00:20:55
back. And who are they lashing back
00:20:57
against? Israel here. They have their
00:21:01
missiles focused on Israel. They're not
00:21:03
really hitting our bases here. They're
00:21:05
hitting Israel and they send 3,000
00:21:08
Israelis to the hospital, the most since
00:21:11
the 73 war. So, a long time. That is
00:21:16
stage one. Okay. Now, what happened when
00:21:20
in February 28? February 28, they're
00:21:23
lashing back a bit against Israel for
00:21:26
sure, but now they're at stage two. This
00:21:28
is why I published this piece today in
00:21:30
foreign affairs about how Iran's winning
00:21:32
the escalation war. So it just came out
00:21:34
just a few hours before we came on. And
00:21:37
what's happening here is called I call
00:21:39
it horizontal escalation because what
00:21:41
they're doing now is they're using
00:21:43
drones mostly a few missiles but mostly
00:21:46
drones. This was almost all missiles no
00:21:48
drones and they're using their drone
00:21:50
capacity which they have a lot of and
00:21:53
it's precision. These drones are like
00:21:55
precisiong guided weapons. They go right
00:21:58
to the target and what they're trying to
00:22:00
do is break this coalition.
00:22:03
>> For anyone that can't see at the moment
00:22:05
that they counted with horizontal
00:22:06
escalation against Saudi Arabia, the
00:22:08
UAE,
00:22:09
>> the coalition that had been formed
00:22:12
against them, they're trying to break
00:22:14
the coalition, you see.
00:22:16
>> Um, and they may well do that.
00:22:18
>> Why Why would they want to break that?
00:22:19
Why my friends are escaping Dubai at the
00:22:21
moment? And I've got a friend staying in
00:22:22
my house in Cape Town because he doesn't
00:22:23
want to be
00:22:24
>> because they want these countries to
00:22:26
kick the Americans out of their country.
00:22:28
>> Okay?
00:22:29
>> Get rid of the uh embassies. Get rid of
00:22:31
the bases. If you can then we don't have
00:22:34
the platforms to plaster them. You see,
00:22:37
these are our basically groundbased
00:22:39
aircraft carriers. I thought they were
00:22:41
they were attacking Saudi Arabia, for
00:22:43
example, because that will make Saudi
00:22:44
Arabia call Trump and say, "Listen,
00:22:46
stop, please. We're losing our tour
00:22:48
tourism. We're shutting our airports."
00:22:50
But well they do want to they are
00:22:51
threatening the tourism hitting the
00:22:54
economic nodes they're hitting uh hotels
00:22:57
uh they're hitting the airports what
00:23:00
they are trying to do is by threatening
00:23:02
tourism which it varies from 5% to 10%
00:23:07
of the GDP of these countries. It's not
00:23:10
trivial amounts here. They're basically
00:23:13
trying to drive wedges between these
00:23:16
countries and America. And America right
00:23:19
now, I don't see any movement through
00:23:21
Congress. I where where is this hundred
00:23:23
billion dollars going to the region to
00:23:26
make up for their lost tourism? I I
00:23:28
don't remember seeing that bill come
00:23:29
through Congress last week. So, um, I'm
00:23:31
just putting a little humorously to
00:23:32
point out these countries are losing a
00:23:35
fair bit right now and that tourism may
00:23:37
not come back for a while.
00:23:39
>> I've got friends that are that have
00:23:40
moved.
00:23:41
>> I've got friends that one of my friends
00:23:43
was thinking about leaving is now in my
00:23:45
house in Cape Town and he's been there
00:23:47
for 5 years. He's leaving and he's going
00:23:49
to move to America. I've got so many
00:23:50
friends that have called you
00:23:52
>> and imagine that we have 500,000
00:23:54
American citizens here and we have the
00:23:57
State Department on CNN. call this
00:24:00
number, we'll help you escape.
00:24:02
>> It's even the media in the UK, you see
00:24:03
it. It's like it's they're showing like
00:24:05
the BBC are showing like evacuations of
00:24:06
UK citizens as they're being greeted in
00:24:08
the airport, putting microphones.
00:24:09
>> So, this is putting a lot of pressure
00:24:12
here and there's something else that's
00:24:15
not widely known, which is there's a big
00:24:17
gap between what the leaders of the
00:24:20
countries want willing to support US and
00:24:22
Israel and their publics. You see, this
00:24:25
coalition that's been built against Iran
00:24:28
here is not clearly going down well with
00:24:32
Publix. These are publiclix. They may
00:24:34
not like Iran. They may be Sunni and
00:24:37
Iran Shia, but they don't want to be
00:24:39
part of an Israeli expansion plan where
00:24:41
Israel is going to conquer more and more
00:24:43
territory and so forth. And so this is
00:24:46
this is this is where the soft
00:24:48
underbelly here of this this isn't just
00:24:51
about the tourism. That's the short
00:24:53
term. The longer term is bottomup
00:24:57
pressure. Uh Sadat, he was a leader of
00:25:00
Egypt in the 1970s. He cut a deal with
00:25:03
uh Israel. It's called the Camp David
00:25:05
Accords. Peace uh uh for land. There was
00:25:08
but it was very favorable. Well, after
00:25:10
Saddat did that, the president of Egypt
00:25:13
in 1981 in a military parade, his own
00:25:16
security guards at the military parade
00:25:20
marched with their guns, came up to his
00:25:22
place, and they shot him dead.
00:25:25
So, you don't this is the real world
00:25:28
here. So, this is very, very dangerous
00:25:30
for these leaders. Now, that's stage
00:25:33
two. Now, what what happens if we decide
00:25:36
to have one of these limited ground uh
00:25:40
uh deployments here? Because after all,
00:25:41
we still don't know where this material
00:25:43
is.
00:25:43
>> What does that mean? So, for anyone that
00:25:45
doesn't know anything about the war,
00:25:45
what does a a ground deployment mean?
00:25:47
Cuz I I saw Trump being asked about this
00:25:49
on the plane yesterday, and he didn't
00:25:51
seem to deny it was going to happen. It
00:25:52
means you try to control a limited
00:25:55
amount of space, say the space around
00:25:58
Fordo or the the nuclear facility that
00:26:00
you bombed in June, and you would send
00:26:03
the say 82nd Airborne in to control the
00:26:06
space.
00:26:07
>> This I don't know what any of this stuff
00:26:08
is.
00:26:08
>> I see. So 82nd Airborne is is a division
00:26:11
that we have that's especially equipped
00:26:15
to uh go into hostile area and land and
00:26:20
control say airports control space.
00:26:22
Think about controlling all the size of
00:26:24
LAX.
00:26:25
>> Mhm.
00:26:25
>> So if you want to control LAX, you bring
00:26:28
in the 82nd Airborne. They will have
00:26:30
5,000 men and women, not just guys now.
00:26:33
And they will come in and they will
00:26:34
control that space LAX, but they will
00:26:38
also be doing this probably not for a
00:26:40
day, not for even a week. They're going
00:26:42
to have to spend weeks and weeks to
00:26:45
search for that material because we
00:26:48
don't know where it is and it's all
00:26:49
deeply buried and a lot of the stuff has
00:26:52
been the the entrances have been blown
00:26:55
up. So this means this means long-term
00:26:58
presence there. You might also take some
00:27:00
of the oil fields to cut off some of the
00:27:02
um money uh here for the uh uh for the
00:27:06
regime. That is where that book comes
00:27:09
in.
00:27:09
>> Do you think it's likely that America
00:27:11
will put boots on the ground, American
00:27:13
soldiers in Iran?
00:27:15
>> I think it's at least 50/50 if not
00:27:17
immediately. So people keep expecting
00:27:20
the escalation to be continuous and then
00:27:23
when there's a pause uh as there was
00:27:26
between June and February, they think,
00:27:28
"Oh, it's over. I'm going to go now
00:27:30
worry about something else." And then
00:27:31
believe me, there's plenty else to worry
00:27:33
about. So we got Minneapolis. We got
00:27:35
plenty to worry about here, even with
00:27:37
violence. But that's not how escalation
00:27:41
operates. Escalation
00:27:43
can happen have a ratchet effect that
00:27:46
has that's spaced out by months of what
00:27:50
seems like peace only to come right back
00:27:54
and you're stuck in that escalation
00:27:56
momentum
00:27:57
>> which is what we've seen
00:27:58
>> which is exactly what we've seen and for
00:28:00
the reason I'm telling you we don't know
00:28:03
where that nuclear material is that has
00:28:06
been the $64,000
00:28:09
weakness in this entire entire idea of
00:28:13
using air power not just in the last 10
00:28:15
days going back to June. It's not just
00:28:19
even about the regime change. It's about
00:28:20
how are you going to get that nuclear
00:28:23
material out. We had a deal this deal
00:28:26
with Obama. Trump did not like it. But
00:28:29
with that deal that held and Iran took
00:28:33
out almost all virtually just only a
00:28:36
tiny bit was left. They not enough for a
00:28:38
bomb. all out of the country and we
00:28:40
watched it. We monitored it. We had 24/7
00:28:44
cameras to monitor this. We had human
00:28:46
on-site inspections to monitor this.
00:28:50
2018, Trump just ripped it up, walked
00:28:53
away unilaterally, and from that point
00:28:55
on, it's been pedal to the metal by Iran
00:28:58
in upgrading that enriched uranium. And
00:29:00
that's how you got to that material that
00:29:03
would be enough for the 16 bombs. And
00:29:05
right now, we don't know where that is.
00:29:07
So
00:29:08
>> yeah,
00:29:09
>> stage one is
00:29:11
>> okay stage one you are beginning the
00:29:14
escalation trap. In this case it's a
00:29:16
smart bomb trap but it because it's with
00:29:18
smart bombs where you have tactical
00:29:21
success near perfect call it 100%
00:29:25
because it it really is but that doesn't
00:29:28
mean you have strategic success tactical
00:29:31
success plus strategic failure.
00:29:36
Then that strategic failure weighs on
00:29:39
you over time because the enemy still
00:29:41
got the thing that you wanted to get in
00:29:42
the first place. Now you do stage two,
00:29:45
which is regime change because after
00:29:48
all, you've already hit the targets. You
00:29:50
can make the rubble bounce, but what
00:29:52
more? That's why we didn't bomb them in
00:29:54
the last 10 days. We might go back and
00:29:56
bomb for some more. Okay, but we already
00:29:58
bombed that. So, so there's only
00:30:00
watching the bubble, but now we're in
00:30:02
stage two because what are your options?
00:30:04
The only other option is well let me get
00:30:06
rid of the regime because then the
00:30:08
regime I will control and the next
00:30:11
regime will just give us the material.
00:30:14
That's not working now. And you hear
00:30:16
today Trump is dancing trying to figure
00:30:18
out what to say. He doesn't want to say
00:30:20
the war's over. Okay. Doesn't want to
00:30:23
say the war is going on. But the bottom
00:30:25
line is we don't even he won't even be
00:30:27
clear about why we're fighting the war
00:30:29
anymore. And I'm telling you there's a
00:30:31
real problem. The nuclear material is
00:30:33
still there.
00:30:34
and it can still be fashioned into those
00:30:36
16 bombs over time. So this is where
00:30:39
then you get this horizontal escalation
00:30:42
where now they've really really working
00:30:44
on this because now it's a long war.
00:30:46
>> They start attacking their neighbors
00:30:48
>> and tried to make it a uh the
00:30:50
consequences go on for months. So just
00:30:52
imagine when are your friends exactly
00:30:53
going to move back? So let's say the war
00:30:55
is over tomorrow. Are they moving back
00:30:57
tomorrow? And when was uh last time uh
00:31:00
have you started to plan for your next
00:31:01
vacation in Dubai? I've been I was I was
00:31:03
planning speaking there in a month's
00:31:05
time, but it's been cancelled already.
00:31:06
>> Well, just Yeah, just starting to think
00:31:07
about that and you know, minor thing
00:31:09
like a drone attack could suddenly come
00:31:11
out of nowhere. You know, you're not
00:31:12
even you think it's I'm just trying to
00:31:13
point out that this is this is the world
00:31:15
now that a lot of people this was a
00:31:17
luxury market. This was the playground
00:31:20
of the rich and famous here. This is
00:31:22
really now changing and it may come back
00:31:25
a year or two from now, but it took two
00:31:27
years for air travel to come back after
00:31:29
911. Just think about that. this. Now,
00:31:32
we haven't gotten to stage three yet,
00:31:34
which gets to your girlfriend's point.
00:31:36
>> How do we move from stage two to stage
00:31:38
three?
00:31:38
>> Oh, well, because you still don't know
00:31:39
where the the nuclear material is,
00:31:42
>> and we don't have to move to stage
00:31:45
beyond uh to stage three this week. We
00:31:48
could do it a month from now, 6 months
00:31:50
from now. The problem is we've now put
00:31:53
in place a much more aggressive
00:31:55
leadership, much more aggressive regime.
00:31:58
We've taken away some of the uh what may
00:32:00
have been guardrails. who can't say for
00:32:02
sure for the nuclear weapon. This this
00:32:04
new regime much more likely and we've
00:32:06
given them every incentive to develop
00:32:09
the nuclear bomb. We're killing them.
00:32:12
So, so what exactly is their incentive?
00:32:15
They're they're their best way to
00:32:16
survive is to have a nuclear weapon. And
00:32:19
you'll say, "Well, we're going to kill
00:32:20
them." Well, we're already killing them.
00:32:22
So, we've taken away their incentive not
00:32:25
to have a nuclear weapon. So, we will
00:32:28
start to worry as each week goes by. Not
00:32:32
because we have great intel, not because
00:32:34
our human well, it's because of the
00:32:36
opposite. We don't have the exquisite
00:32:39
intelligence we had with the Obama deal
00:32:41
to know we had frozen the program. Now,
00:32:45
that we have Swiss cheese at best. And
00:32:48
what we will see in the holes of the
00:32:50
Swiss cheese are indications of nuclear
00:32:53
development. And that will make us worry
00:32:55
because what happens with the nuclear
00:32:57
weapon is it going to go to Hezbollah
00:32:59
and is Hezbollah going to help put it in
00:33:01
uh uh uh Hifa? What's going to happen
00:33:04
with these? Are we going to give is are
00:33:06
they going to give it to the Houthies?
00:33:08
So these are the kind of worries we will
00:33:10
have that will push us to the ground
00:33:13
options and that that is with stage
00:33:18
three
00:33:20
the retaliation approaches the homeland
00:33:24
>> is that realistic
00:33:26
>> if ISIS with its 30 to 40,000 uh
00:33:29
remember ISIS was not a state Iran is an
00:33:32
actual state with 92 million people so
00:33:35
if ISIS can fment commander directed
00:33:38
inspired suicide attacks and other
00:33:41
attacks in San Bernardino, just to kind
00:33:44
of bring it a little bit closer to home
00:33:46
here across the United States. Paris,
00:33:48
remember the big Paris attack. So why
00:33:51
exactly is Iran not if I mean ISIS was a
00:33:54
lot weaker than Iran?
00:33:55
>> Do you think in Iran at the moment
00:33:58
they're working on that? They're working
00:33:59
on a terrorist attack. Well, I don't I
00:34:02
think that my work tells me that it's
00:34:05
most likely to come with the presence of
00:34:08
the ground forces by us. Doesn't mean
00:34:10
it's it's a necessary condition, but
00:34:12
it's just most likely. Russia in 96 with
00:34:16
our help, we played a trick on them.
00:34:18
Assassinated the Chchin leader. It's a
00:34:20
leader of its republic in uh in Russia
00:34:23
called Cheschna Dunv. Only a million
00:34:26
people. And Russia um killed the guy.
00:34:30
And we actually have pictures of him
00:34:32
seeing the the missile hitting him
00:34:34
because we can put the cameras right in
00:34:35
the nose cone.
00:34:37
Then the new guy took over. His name was
00:34:40
Bazv. And he uh launched within three
00:34:43
months, not the next week, Operation
00:34:46
Jihad. And his operation jihad was much
00:34:50
more vicious tactics. Kick the Russian
00:34:54
forces. Russia is a big country. You
00:34:57
know, hundred almost 200 million people
00:34:59
compared to this little province of a
00:35:01
million. Kicked the Russians out after
00:35:04
three months. Launches a waves of
00:35:06
suicide attacks, massive kidnappings
00:35:09
here. This really went on for years and
00:35:12
years. So when you say, are they
00:35:15
planning it? I I don't think it's quite
00:35:17
right, Stephen. It's not like they have
00:35:19
the detailed plan they're about to
00:35:21
execute. they have the next wave of
00:35:25
possibilities
00:35:26
which would come I think most likely
00:35:29
with stage two so stage three so as this
00:35:31
is expanding as the war expands it will
00:35:34
go global
00:35:35
>> really
00:35:36
>> you are already seeing it global with
00:35:38
the supply chain and you're seeing it
00:35:39
with the oil so that's already happening
00:35:41
so um what Iran said today the the uh
00:35:45
response to Trump's press conference
00:35:47
today that just literally happened
00:35:49
before we came on is okay we will allow
00:35:52
Gulf States your oil tankers to come
00:35:55
through if you kick the Americans out.
00:35:57
So kick the Americans out and we'll let
00:36:00
you pass.
00:36:01
>> If you don't,
00:36:01
>> if you don't, we got drones. So they
00:36:03
didn't put that in there, but everybody
00:36:05
knows they got drones.
00:36:06
>> And again, for if you were explaining
00:36:07
this to a 16-year-old.
00:36:09
>> Yeah.
00:36:09
>> Just to keep it super simple, there's
00:36:11
this passageway across the water where a
00:36:14
lot of the oil tankers go.
00:36:16
>> Yep. It's straight of Hormuz.
00:36:18
>> Hormuz. And it sounded like the tankers
00:36:21
are refusing to go through there at the
00:36:22
moment.
00:36:23
>> Sure. Because one has been hit, but it
00:36:25
only takes one to be hit with a drone.
00:36:27
Only one. Because the people driving
00:36:30
those tankers here, they're doing it for
00:36:32
a paycheck, not a bullet. They're not
00:36:35
really wanting to die for this. This
00:36:36
isn't a nationalist cause to ship the
00:36:39
the oil.
00:36:40
>> Explain why it matters to the world. If
00:36:41
if oil doesn't go through this straight
00:36:43
of Hummus, what matter? What happens?
00:36:45
>> Yeah. Well, we can talk about it in like
00:36:48
technical terms, but the big thing to
00:36:50
say is this is what's going to increase
00:36:52
the price of gas at the pump and it's
00:36:55
already gone up. When you cut the flow
00:36:57
of the oil, it has global effects. It
00:37:02
doesn't just affect this little region
00:37:04
here. It doesn't just affect China over
00:37:06
here. It affects everybody. And that's
00:37:09
why the Europeans are starting to freak
00:37:11
out because this they're already every
00:37:14
government worries about we talk about
00:37:16
affordability. That's about to change.
00:37:18
>> And is this your point about how it
00:37:20
changes the politics at home because
00:37:22
people someone goes to the pump today,
00:37:23
they go why is the oil higher?
00:37:25
>> That's right. Why is the we just came we
00:37:28
we now have 4.4% unemployment. Um if we
00:37:32
and and President Trump was trying to
00:37:34
say it's all getting better, the
00:37:36
interest rates are going down. Well,
00:37:38
that all predicated on us not having
00:37:40
inflation. You see, when the oil is cut,
00:37:44
the inflation goes up, the affordability
00:37:47
becomes a problem. That is what is
00:37:51
panicking a lot of the businesses right
00:37:53
now because they're going to lose
00:37:55
business and and it's a problem of risk.
00:37:58
It's not just about the damage. So, a
00:38:01
little a few of these drones can have an
00:38:04
inordinate effect on risk. Now let's
00:38:08
bring in another piece which is Russia
00:38:11
we find out is providing targeting
00:38:15
intelligence to Iran much the way we
00:38:18
provide targeting intelligence to
00:38:20
Ukraine to hit uh uh targets in Russia.
00:38:23
And what does that mean? That means
00:38:25
those drones which are precisiong guided
00:38:28
now can more easily find exactly which
00:38:31
ship to hit. So
00:38:32
>> we know that Russia are doing that.
00:38:34
because we've got it pretty well
00:38:35
confirmed from Yeah. It's you would hear
00:38:37
much more push back here. And what
00:38:40
you're hearing from Secretary Hegsth is
00:38:43
not it's not happening. You're saying,
00:38:44
"Oh, no. Well, let's not overw worry."
00:38:46
No, it's happening. And they're worried
00:38:48
because that's the that's the again the
00:38:51
dancing around. They're not denying the
00:38:53
fact that it's actually happening.
00:38:55
>> I think Trump actually when asked said
00:38:57
something words to the effect of, "I
00:38:59
wouldn't blame them because that's what
00:39:00
we do to them."
00:39:02
>> Exactly. Exactly. And why is he talking
00:39:04
to Putin today? He's not talking He was
00:39:06
just on the phone with Putin before he
00:39:07
did his press conference. What's he
00:39:09
talking to Putin about? Bad intel, I'm
00:39:11
sure, and maybe cutting a deal, which is
00:39:15
we'll deny the Ukrainians the intel if
00:39:17
you deny. You see, this is the this is
00:39:20
this is the the cascading effects of the
00:39:23
politics dominates the tactics.
00:39:27
>> And that's exactly what Trump said. He
00:39:29
said on March the 7th when asked about
00:39:31
Russia teaming up with Iran on
00:39:33
intelligence, he said, "If we asked
00:39:36
them, they'd say, "We do it against
00:39:38
them." Wouldn't they say that we do it
00:39:40
against them?
00:39:42
It's almost justifying it.
00:39:44
>> Trump often just speaks his mind. Uh
00:39:46
sometimes he kind of hides things, but
00:39:48
some often he speaks his mind. And what
00:39:50
you're seeing here is of this is the
00:39:53
natural thing. Russia is uh what's good
00:39:57
for the goose, good for the gander.
00:39:58
They're doing the same thing to us that
00:40:00
we've done to them. And they have and
00:40:02
they're doing it to hurt us, you see. So
00:40:05
rather than just spasmotically or spasm
00:40:09
response here, which we often think the
00:40:11
the foes we're up against are stupid. We
00:40:13
essentially think they're dumb. We call
00:40:15
that irrational. But what's really
00:40:18
happening, Stephen, is um since the
00:40:20
Vietnam War, we have been up against
00:40:23
foes that have understood something
00:40:24
about America, which is the way to get
00:40:26
at us is polit politically. Make it a
00:40:30
long war. Play the politics. You can't
00:40:34
go toe-to-toe with us on the
00:40:35
battlefield. We'll just clean their
00:40:37
clock over and over. They don't often
00:40:39
try. They don't go toe-to-toe with us.
00:40:42
We lost the Vietnam War with never
00:40:45
losing a battle. How did we lose? We
00:40:48
lost the long game. 58,000 dead, no end
00:40:52
in sight, a forever war. What are we
00:40:55
doing this for? That is how the North
00:40:58
Vietnamese won. And that's how the
00:41:01
Afghan Taliban won. That's how the bad
00:41:04
guys typically beat us. They don't
00:41:06
always win, but the bottom line is we
00:41:09
have a soft underbelly. It's not the
00:41:12
military.
00:41:14
Much of the reason most people haven't
00:41:16
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00:41:17
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00:41:20
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00:41:21
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00:41:23
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00:41:26
in your psychology that stop you wanting
00:41:28
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00:41:30
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00:41:32
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00:41:35
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00:43:14
>> What do you think happens next? If you
00:43:16
had to, no offense sitting. Yeah.
00:43:18
>> If you had to predict what you think
00:43:20
happens next, what would you predict?
00:43:21
>> Well, I say this at the end of the
00:43:23
foreign affairs article that just
00:43:24
literally came out a couple hours ago,
00:43:26
which is President Trump is on the horns
00:43:28
of a dilemma and he has no golden
00:43:32
offramp. He's looking for offramps, but
00:43:34
there's no golden one where he comes out
00:43:36
politically ahead. So, he's got a
00:43:38
choice, sometimes called a Hobbesian
00:43:40
choice, a Hobsonian choice where you cut
00:43:44
your losses, accept political loss now.
00:43:47
And right now, if he pulls back, and
00:43:49
what does it mean to pull back? You got
00:43:51
to pull your forces back. It's not
00:43:53
enough to say you're just doing a pause.
00:43:55
If you want to stop, if you want to stop
00:43:57
for real, you take those aircraft
00:43:59
carriers and you send them out
00:44:01
somewhere. You send them to Asia. You
00:44:03
send them here. You got to actually make
00:44:05
you got to do something here. So, choice
00:44:07
one is you stop your bombing campaign.
00:44:10
You cut your losses. You do your best to
00:44:12
say we just wanted to destroy missiles
00:44:14
even though nobody will believe it.
00:44:16
Okay. Um but that means you accept a a
00:44:19
modest loss now. Or the other is you
00:44:23
double down and you go on for more
00:44:25
weeks. go on for more weeks hoping
00:44:28
you'll kill this leader and maybe the
00:44:30
next one won't be so bad or you'll
00:44:32
you'll have some other sort of uh
00:44:34
outcome that you can't imagine. And
00:44:37
Trump is nothing I call him a chaos kid.
00:44:39
He thrives in chaos and he often comes
00:44:43
out of this with something happening
00:44:45
like when you know sort of down the road
00:44:47
you didn't expect it. He probably didn't
00:44:49
expect it. But in this case, the price
00:44:52
is more likely going to be a political
00:44:54
failure of the first order because we
00:44:56
have the midterms coming. So if if he
00:44:59
he's got a choice, stop now, cut your
00:45:02
losses, accept a limited political
00:45:03
defeat, or double down, go on for a few
00:45:06
months, go through more stages of this
00:45:09
uh smart bomb trap I'm explaining, and
00:45:11
you're really now in Lynden Johnson
00:45:14
territory. Remember I mentioned before
00:45:16
where in Vietnam he kept escalating,
00:45:19
kept moving up the escalation ladder.
00:45:21
Every rung he said, "Well, no, we have
00:45:22
escalation dominance. We're just going
00:45:24
to double down. We're going to hit them
00:45:25
harder the next time. We're going to do
00:45:26
this the next time." Sound familiar? And
00:45:29
then what happened is it became
00:45:31
absolutely clear uh that this was going
00:45:34
nowhere and the 68 election came was
00:45:37
coming and Lynden Johnson's own
00:45:40
Democrats said, "Mr. president, we can't
00:45:44
ride your horse into that. We got to do
00:45:46
something. And the problem is they
00:45:47
didn't pull the plug fast enough here.
00:45:50
That's how they lost. They don't they
00:45:51
they don't pull the plug fast enough.
00:45:52
So, you end up having a bigger loss
00:45:55
later.
00:45:55
>> When you talk about the the um
00:45:57
underbelly that the United States has
00:45:59
where they can't prolong these wars, am
00:46:01
I right in thinking this is basically a
00:46:02
function or a a consequence of living in
00:46:05
a democracy where every four years
00:46:07
>> I I think it's a function of a war of
00:46:09
choice. So when we were attacked in
00:46:12
Pearl Harbor, we were attacked.
00:46:15
>> We were reluctant to get in World War II
00:46:19
and we were we didn't get in until we
00:46:21
were actually struck at Pearl Harbor.
00:46:23
That was enough to really make us angry.
00:46:26
We were pissed off as a country. Okay?
00:46:28
And we were going to get payback not
00:46:30
just for a month, but we were getting
00:46:32
some real payback here. And that's how
00:46:34
vicious that island hopping campaign was
00:46:36
and why it was so vicious here. And that
00:46:39
went on and on. And when we ended the
00:46:41
war um in in dropping those atomic
00:46:44
bombs, 22% of the American public wanted
00:46:47
us to forget the Japanese surrender and
00:46:50
drop more atomic bombs. 22%. We are that
00:46:53
angry. So when we are attacked first, we
00:46:58
have the politics and our advantage.
00:47:01
When we do a war of choice, we can make
00:47:04
up all the reasons why it was a good
00:47:06
idea to start throw the first punch.
00:47:08
They were going to hit us. We were gonna
00:47:10
But when we throw that first punch
00:47:12
first, that's a war of choice. And this
00:47:15
puts the politics in the other camp's
00:47:18
advantage. And that's the problem that
00:47:21
we're facing here. Iran didn't hit us
00:47:24
first. They didn't hit us first in June.
00:47:26
They didn't hit us first before that.
00:47:29
>> So on this point of war of choice,
00:47:32
>> y
00:47:35
there's really two questions I have
00:47:36
front of mind. One is was Trump right
00:47:39
that if he didn't attack then they would
00:47:41
have enriched uranium they would have
00:47:43
made a nuclear weapon and that would
00:47:45
have put not just the region but the
00:47:46
world at danger in your view and then
00:47:49
the second one is this sort of ongoing
00:47:51
debate around the role of Israel in this
00:47:53
war and I think it was Marco Rubio that
00:47:57
came out and I think maybe accidentally
00:47:59
said that the reason why they attacked
00:48:02
Iran was because they heard that Israel
00:48:05
were about to attack Iran.
00:48:07
>> So, so let's go back to the Friday, the
00:48:09
day before we start the bombing
00:48:11
campaign. This is February 27, literally
00:48:14
3:15 Washington time. That's when Trump
00:48:17
makes the go decision. But what's in his
00:48:20
what what is he choosing between? He has
00:48:23
an offer on the table from Iran for a
00:48:26
better deal than the Obama deal for
00:48:29
America. And it is uh it's not
00:48:31
absolutely perfect. They still want to
00:48:33
have some minor enrichment to but that
00:48:37
uh verification lots of things here. Now
00:48:40
maybe it's still not perfect but
00:48:42
President Trump has a choice on that
00:48:44
Friday afternoon. He can go back and he
00:48:48
can work this deal. He can, you know,
00:48:50
after all dealmaker, right? Let's let's
00:48:52
assume he's good at dealmaking. So he
00:48:54
can go back and work the deal. But
00:48:56
that's not what he does. What he does is
00:48:58
he throws that deal away. And also the
00:49:02
supreme leader when he killed that's the
00:49:04
supreme leader was on board with that
00:49:05
deal too. And what do we do instead? We
00:49:08
we go through regime change. So the
00:49:11
choices here Stephen were before we got
00:49:15
to stage two we were in stage one. Stage
00:49:19
one we had hit fore it it would there
00:49:22
were were negotiations and Iran's coming
00:49:26
up with a better deal than the Obama
00:49:28
deal. And what does he do? he goes to
00:49:30
stage two instead. So I don't think this
00:49:34
is this this story you're hearing they
00:49:37
were gonna do X Y or Z is there was a
00:49:40
deal on the table and
00:49:42
>> why did Rubio say that then? Why did he
00:49:44
say that they attacked? Because Israel
00:49:46
were going to attack.
00:49:47
>> Okay, I want to play this video which is
00:49:49
what I'm referring to.
00:49:50
>> Okay,
00:49:52
>> if we stood and waited for that attack
00:49:53
to come first before we hit them, we
00:49:56
would suffer much higher casualties. And
00:49:59
so the president made the very wise
00:50:00
decision. He we knew that there was
00:50:02
going to be an Israeli action. We knew
00:50:04
that that would precipitate an attack
00:50:05
against American forces. And we knew
00:50:07
that if we didn't preemptively go after
00:50:09
them before they launched those attacks,
00:50:11
we would suffer higher casualties and
00:50:13
perhaps even hire those killed. And then
00:50:15
we would all be here answering questions
00:50:17
about why we knew that and didn't act.
00:50:19
>> So what that shows you is that it's the
00:50:23
tail wagging the dog that Israel is
00:50:25
going to attack. as I'm saying just
00:50:28
happened in June. It's a replay of what
00:50:30
happened in June. Israel may well have
00:50:33
We don't know why Israel decided to
00:50:35
attack and kill the Supreme Leader. It
00:50:36
was actually Israeli bombs who killed
00:50:38
the Supreme Leader. Uh and also those
00:50:40
other replacement leaders as well. But
00:50:42
Israel may well have been thinking that
00:50:45
my goodness, Trump is getting too close
00:50:46
to a deal. That's what happened in June.
00:50:49
Trump was on the edge of a deal with
00:50:51
Iran and then Israel goes and kills the
00:50:54
negotiators. You see? So just think
00:50:56
about that for a moment. They're ne
00:50:59
Trump is negotiating with the Iranians
00:51:02
and then they say, "Well, okay, come
00:51:04
back the next day and what is there the
00:51:06
next day? Israeli bombs killing them."
00:51:09
>> So I mean, that's not a good that's not
00:51:10
a great way to handle a partnership.
00:51:12
>> Well, it's just it's just showing you we
00:51:14
had another choice. We could have told
00:51:16
Israel not to do it. We could have told
00:51:17
Israel if you do this, we're going to
00:51:19
cut off all your military aid for the
00:51:21
next three years. That would be put some
00:51:23
pressure on Israel. now then Trump would
00:51:25
have to pay a price politically. So I'm
00:51:28
not saying that's an easy thing to do.
00:51:29
Don't get me wrong, but we need to
00:51:31
understand that that Trump these are the
00:51:34
these are the pressures for escalation
00:51:37
in the escalation trap. So I'm trying to
00:51:40
explain why this isn't just randomly
00:51:44
happening, Stephen. It's not like, oh my
00:51:46
goodness, I can't follow what's
00:51:47
occurring. So that's why when Trump says
00:51:50
in today's briefing uh talks about
00:51:52
stopping the air campaign, is he going
00:51:55
to stop Israel's campaign? That's the
00:51:57
question that did not come up today.
00:51:59
It's in my I put on my accent. The one
00:52:01
of the big questions that did not come
00:52:03
up is President Trump, are you going to
00:52:06
call Netanyahu and tell him to stop
00:52:08
bombing Iraq?
00:52:09
>> Does Trump control Netanyahu in your
00:52:11
view?
00:52:12
>> Well, again, it's about pressures here.
00:52:14
It's about what are the uh what are the
00:52:16
ways you you you you don't it's not
00:52:18
about a matter of like a personal
00:52:20
loyalty relationship. This is politics
00:52:22
of the first order. That's what I'm
00:52:24
trying to explain. So for President
00:52:26
Trump to stop Netanyahu from doing this,
00:52:29
this will be paying a price. He will
00:52:31
have a there are a big part of his MAGA
00:52:33
constituency is very pro not just Israel
00:52:36
pro-Netanyahu
00:52:38
version of Israel. So, this is the
00:52:40
tension in and the politics that I'm
00:52:43
trying to explain, which is why you
00:52:44
don't really want to start the trap in
00:52:46
the first place.
00:52:48
>> And I asked you a second ago, no fence
00:52:51
sitting, what happens next in this war
00:52:53
based on everything you've studied for
00:52:54
the last 30 years, the 20 years of doing
00:52:56
>> I think it's more likely than not that
00:52:58
maybe not in the next week or two. I've
00:53:00
said uh on my substack it's more likely
00:53:02
than not we will get to a limited um uh
00:53:05
ground deployment here because of the
00:53:07
fizzle because of the I'm keep saying
00:53:09
because of the the enriched material
00:53:11
that is floating around and we know it's
00:53:14
dispersing. We know it's dispersing. We
00:53:17
don't know where it is. And there could
00:53:20
be literally hundreds of rooms not much
00:53:23
bigger than this size, maybe two or
00:53:25
three times this size that we're in.
00:53:28
That could be used to uh fashion an an a
00:53:32
fat man style a bomb. Not to
00:53:34
miniaturaturize it, to put on a warhead.
00:53:36
That would be more sophisticated. But if
00:53:38
what you want to do is you want to have
00:53:40
a Hiroshima bomb that can kill 75,000
00:53:43
people in a second or 10 seconds, that
00:53:47
is what they are in the the the the
00:53:50
that's what we're talking about here.
00:53:52
We're not talking about can they put
00:53:54
miniaturaturize the bomb to put it on
00:53:56
the nose cone of a war of a missile.
00:54:00
This is they don't need to. That's very
00:54:02
sophisticated stuff. We couldn't do that
00:54:04
for 10 years.
00:54:05
>> So I guess there's two there's two
00:54:06
questions that come to mind. The first
00:54:08
is to understand someone's behavior, you
00:54:11
have to like understand their
00:54:12
motivations. And I I think a lot about
00:54:15
like where Trump is in his
00:54:20
career, legacy, how how much that
00:54:22
matters to him. It appears from what
00:54:24
I've seen, the whole thing around him
00:54:25
wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize,
00:54:27
the the Peace Board, the being the
00:54:29
president that stops all, it appears
00:54:31
that he's thinking about how he's going
00:54:32
to be remembered. And when I'm looking
00:54:34
at some of his interviews recently, he's
00:54:35
saying things like, "I don't want it to
00:54:37
be the case that in 10 years time or in
00:54:39
5 years time, the US have to go back in
00:54:42
again because like I didn't do a good
00:54:43
job." And it made me start to believe
00:54:45
that actually one of his one of the
00:54:47
reasons why we might escalate this war
00:54:49
further from a United States perspective
00:54:52
is because
00:54:54
legacy changes in hindsight. And if we
00:54:57
think about George W. Bush,
00:54:58
>> I think you're putting your finger on
00:54:59
it, Stephen.
00:55:00
>> George W. Bush's legacy now is like
00:55:02
completely tarnished because of this one
00:55:04
war and actually how it ended.
00:55:06
>> Yeah. But also
00:55:07
>> it's a mistake in hindsight.
00:55:08
>> But also now mirror image that to the
00:55:11
Iranians. Why aren't they thinking about
00:55:13
their legacy?
00:55:14
>> Think about that for a moment. Why would
00:55:17
the Supreme Leader 86 years old decide
00:55:21
he's not going to take too many more
00:55:22
precautions? How many more months does
00:55:24
he had cancer apparently? How many more
00:55:26
months does he got? How does he want to
00:55:27
go out? How does he really want to go
00:55:29
out? What's he want to be remembered
00:55:31
for? A coward or does he want to be
00:55:33
remembered as somebody who stood up for
00:55:36
Iran, the revolution, the whole thing he
00:55:38
built his whole life for? You talk about
00:55:40
Trump where so when I get into behind
00:55:43
when the cameras go off and I get a
00:55:46
chance to uh again, let's just say go to
00:55:48
the West Wing. I'm not seeing people
00:55:51
being picky, minor, petty. I see them
00:55:55
worried about their legacy.
00:55:58
the national security adviserss, their
00:56:00
assistance. They're worrying about their
00:56:02
legacy. Do they want to go down in in
00:56:05
the history of American history as X, Y,
00:56:09
or Z? And this is how humans are. It
00:56:13
doesn't stop uh with like how much money
00:56:16
do you have? It's what's going to happen
00:56:18
with your legacy.
00:56:19
>> So with that in mind, if you think Trump
00:56:21
is legacy motivated,
00:56:24
does that increase the
00:56:25
>> in part? I want to be careful in part.
00:56:27
it's always he can't be reelected. So
00:56:28
I'm like that's not motivating him
00:56:29
because you know you play differently if
00:56:30
you think you can win a second term
00:56:32
which I knew would be important to him.
00:56:33
But the if he is legacy motivated now
00:56:36
when you think about which direction
00:56:37
he's going to grow go in it does appear
00:56:40
on the balance of things that he's not
00:56:42
going to want it to be left a mess. And
00:56:45
the biggest mess that could really
00:56:47
embarrass him and his legacy uh in with
00:56:50
international is if Iran has a nuclear
00:56:54
bomb and they detonate a test say next
00:56:57
September.
00:56:59
Let's just imagine what would happen
00:57:01
next September. So people need to think
00:57:04
about see the discussion of Iran and
00:57:06
nuclear bombs here is not very
00:57:09
strategic. It's to scare you. It's oh
00:57:12
they're going to get a bomb and the
00:57:13
first one's going to go on Tel Aviv. The
00:57:15
second one's going to go on New York. I
00:57:17
don't think that's the sequence. Why
00:57:20
would they? Why? If they're willing to
00:57:22
commit suicide to take out Tel Aviv,
00:57:24
they don't need 16 bombs. Okay? If
00:57:26
they're willing to have their entire
00:57:28
population destroyed by they just need
00:57:30
one bomb, take out Tel Aviv, they're
00:57:32
done, right? That's not what's going on.
00:57:34
They're following the North Korea plan.
00:57:36
The North Korea plan that North Korea
00:57:39
figured out when we went through this
00:57:40
with North Korea in the '9s. Okay? the
00:57:42
very same thing except we didn't do the
00:57:44
bombing cuz cuz it was not going to we
00:57:46
didn't get we we avoided the trap. What
00:57:48
they want is multiple bombs at the same
00:57:51
time. So what they want to do if they
00:57:54
can do this is have say five bombs
00:57:58
working at the same time and the first
00:58:00
bomb goes off as a test in the
00:58:03
mountains. In the mountains and then
00:58:06
what do we say? Oh, they blew it.
00:58:08
They're stupid. They blew their one test
00:58:11
and then they do a second test.
00:58:14
Still in their mountains. Okay. When we
00:58:17
dropped the first bomb on Hiroshima,
00:58:19
wasn't clear we had any more. When we
00:58:22
dropped the second one, nobody needed to
00:58:24
wait for a third or fourth. Nobody
00:58:26
really we they knew more would come. You
00:58:28
see what I mean? So with Iran the this
00:58:32
is again we're talking about now um you
00:58:35
know let's let's call it the brown belt
00:58:37
or black belt strategy here that they
00:58:39
are and notice they have been very smart
00:58:41
in their escalation.
00:58:44
What you would do is the North Korea
00:58:46
strategy which is again you want
00:58:48
multiple bombs and then you want to do
00:58:50
some tests and even if one doesn't quite
00:58:53
work you want to have another. You want
00:58:54
to have multiple bombs so that you can
00:58:57
do multiple tests. You see, and that is
00:59:01
how North Korea basically stopped Trump
00:59:05
trying to kill the leader. So notice
00:59:08
that Trump wants to say it was just his
00:59:09
winning personality because, you know,
00:59:11
Trump is so charming here. But North
00:59:14
Korea now has 60 working nuclear weapons
00:59:17
as, you know, best we can tell. And the
00:59:20
idea that uh we're going to start
00:59:22
killing leaders in North Korea anytime
00:59:24
soon, I'm not sure that's going to
00:59:26
happen.
00:59:26
>> They're kind of immune now, right? Well,
00:59:28
and notice that Ukraine had a bunch of
00:59:30
nuclear weapons in the 90s, gave them
00:59:32
up, and there's a lot of people in
00:59:34
Ukraine right now are saying, "Boy, I
00:59:35
wish we had those nuclear weapons back
00:59:37
or else we wouldn't be fighting this
00:59:38
war." So, you start to look at the
00:59:40
history. Why does America have nuclear
00:59:43
weapons here? Are we an evil country and
00:59:45
the reason we have is because we're
00:59:46
evil? We want it for our security. So,
00:59:49
why doesn't Iran want it for their
00:59:51
security? So, this is the strategy part
00:59:54
that we have to the politics. Steve and
00:59:57
I keep trying to talk about.
00:59:58
>> So you're saying your prediction is that
01:00:01
we're going to move to stage three where
01:00:03
Trump
01:00:04
>> Okay, I'll go 7525.
01:00:06
>> 75% which way?
01:00:08
>> That we will put we will send in some
01:00:10
ground forces to get that dispersed
01:00:12
material. Um the only 25% would be if
01:00:15
somehow magically the Iranians gave it
01:00:17
to us.
01:00:18
>> So
01:00:18
>> So that's where the 25% comes from
01:00:20
because there is some chance
01:00:22
>> that there there's some I don't want to
01:00:24
I mean we live in the real world um
01:00:25
here. So I but I think the problem we're
01:00:28
going to face is it's going to become
01:00:30
more and if you're in Iran right now
01:00:34
exactly why aren't you fashioning the
01:00:37
nuclear weapon? We're already killing
01:00:40
you. We can pause for months and say we
01:00:42
won't kill you and then you wake up one
01:00:44
day and you're dead. This we've done
01:00:46
this movie now several times on Iran.
01:00:49
Your best chance of survival is a
01:00:52
nuclear weapon. And so we now know that,
01:00:55
our intel knows that, Israel now knows
01:00:58
it, we've taken these options. Uh so
01:01:01
unless Trump will make a deal, that's
01:01:04
that 25%. So I I think if he makes a
01:01:08
deal, then there's a chance that Iran
01:01:10
will go forward here.
01:01:12
>> If the 75% path plays out,
01:01:15
>> Yep.
01:01:16
>> we put boots on the ground.
01:01:17
>> Yep.
01:01:18
>> What happens then?
01:01:20
>> Now we're at stage three. Now we've
01:01:23
moved to stage three because we have to
01:01:26
search very not just so we will start by
01:01:31
deploying ground forces in a very
01:01:33
limited area. Say we're going to go to
01:01:35
Esphon it's called that's that's the the
01:01:38
uh do we have a
01:01:39
>> I mean you could try and write on there
01:01:40
does that work?
01:01:41
>> Um the thing I'm trying to explain yeah
01:01:43
assume this is Iran. Yeah. Okay. We will
01:01:46
start by putting in um a small footprint
01:01:50
and again we have several options here
01:01:52
to do it. Um and so the hunt will be for
01:01:56
the enriched material. But let's say
01:01:59
that we even find it Stephen, how do we
01:02:03
know that in the intervening almost a
01:02:06
year since the bombing, 10 months since
01:02:08
the bombing, how do we know they haven't
01:02:11
enriched more somewhere else? Because
01:02:15
this is what happened with um the WMD
01:02:18
and Iraq and Sodom Hussein in the '9s
01:02:22
through 2003. We had inspectors in. We
01:02:26
could never be sure. There wasn't
01:02:29
material.
01:02:31
And the problem was over time the fear
01:02:35
got worse and worse and worse. And the
01:02:38
fear is a nuclear handoff or the
01:02:41
radiological handoff. You hand off some
01:02:43
of that material to Hezbollah to the
01:02:46
Houthis. They
01:02:48
>> who are Hezbollah and the Houthies?
01:02:50
They're like
01:02:50
>> they are terrorist groups.
01:02:51
>> They we call them terrorist groups. Um
01:02:54
and the uh and Hezbollah uh which is
01:02:56
this famous terrorist group started in
01:02:58
1982. How did Hezbollah start? Where'd
01:03:01
it come from?
01:03:02
>> Is it the CIA again?
01:03:03
>> No, it's Israel. Israel invades southern
01:03:06
Lebanon in June of 82 with 78,000 combat
01:03:11
soldiers. 3,000 tanks and armor
01:03:13
vehicles. So, think about that. That's
01:03:15
like invading Chicago with 78,000. So,
01:03:18
just or LA with 78,000.
01:03:21
Okay? So, they invade uh southern
01:03:23
Lebanon with 78,000. Israel does. One
01:03:26
month later, Hezbollah is born as
01:03:30
resistance movement. So, Hezbollah was
01:03:33
born out of resistance to Israel. They
01:03:36
have hated Israel from the beginning
01:03:38
because that's how they were born. You
01:03:40
see? So what you have is you have a
01:03:43
group that's hot been radical since and
01:03:45
since 82 this has been going on since
01:03:48
82.
01:03:49
Israel just can't put that country that
01:03:52
Hezbollah group out of business. And
01:03:53
what are they doing literally this week?
01:03:56
They're trying to depopulate this
01:03:58
Beirut, the city of Beirut. Because what
01:04:00
happens when you go up against terrorist
01:04:02
groups, which we haven't described, but
01:04:04
the terrorist group here is like a group
01:04:06
that's in a sea of people. Okay? and you
01:04:09
keep saying all I want to do is get rid
01:04:11
of that terrorist group. The problem is
01:04:14
that in all that effort, military effort
01:04:17
to get rid of the terrorist group, you
01:04:19
do kill them, but they regenerate and
01:04:22
they regenerate and they regenerate just
01:04:24
as Hezbollah has for God 45 years
01:04:28
almost. Okay. And so what do you then
01:04:30
push to do? Get rid of all the people.
01:04:33
>> So you think I'll just genocide?
01:04:35
>> I don't want to use those terms because
01:04:37
I've written about that. That's a that
01:04:39
that has certain very spec. So that's a
01:04:41
whole conversation here. But I just want
01:04:43
to point out how is it that Israel got
01:04:45
itself into the idea they were going to
01:04:48
cleanse expel
01:04:50
um large portions of the 2 million out
01:04:53
of Gaza. That happened because they got
01:04:57
into stage three of the escalation trap
01:04:59
in Gaza. So this isn't just about
01:05:02
America. So we're only talking about the
01:05:04
escalation frameworks with respect to
01:05:06
this one conflict. really it applies
01:05:08
much more broadly. I've developed these
01:05:12
since I taught for the Air Force because
01:05:14
I needed to find a way to help our
01:05:17
government, our military understand
01:05:21
how the transition from the bombing or
01:05:24
the military piece
01:05:27
to the outcome. And what's in the middle
01:05:29
is the military, the bombs change
01:05:33
politics. They change politics in the
01:05:36
enemy. They change politics for us. For
01:05:40
us, we don't want to lose. And that's
01:05:43
why we got stuck in a for in two forever
01:05:46
wars. Um, and now we may well just get
01:05:50
right back into another one. Not because
01:05:52
Trump wants to. He's being sucked into
01:05:54
it.
01:05:54
>> So, what happens after stage three?
01:05:58
>> After stage three, this is what America
01:06:01
has faced in Vietnam. And President
01:06:04
Biden faced this in spades here. When
01:06:07
you try to pull out after you're in
01:06:09
stage three and end these ongoing
01:06:11
conflicts here, usually it ends poorly
01:06:14
for your legacy. And you saw that with
01:06:16
Lyndon Johnson. And you saw that with um
01:06:20
President Biden. President Bid actually
01:06:22
President Trump is the one who was
01:06:24
negotiating with the Taliban to pull
01:06:26
out.
01:06:27
>> But President Trump wouldn't leave. Not
01:06:29
leave. He didn't leave before. Who who
01:06:31
did he hand it off to? He handed it off
01:06:33
to Biden. Biden pulled out. And what has
01:06:35
Biden's legacy been? It's been negative
01:06:39
ever since. If you look at his opinion
01:06:41
polls, pres President Biden, you will
01:06:43
see he was riding high until he withdrew
01:06:46
from Afghanistan and he never recovered.
01:06:49
Yes, inflation hurt too. The bigger hit
01:06:53
was the Afghanistan problem. And this is
01:06:56
where this is why President Trump is
01:06:58
really stuck. You see, he's on that
01:07:00
horns of the dilemma. Does he want to
01:07:03
accept the short-term price, which is
01:07:05
real, or does he want to go and double
01:07:07
down? And then you face the potential
01:07:10
long-term price of becoming LBJ
01:07:14
and President Biden.
01:07:16
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>> I have to ask then, you know, you said
01:09:16
when you're in the White House, they're
01:09:17
very smart people.
01:09:19
>> Yeah, pretty smart. Presumably Trump
01:09:22
knew this stuff or someone around him
01:09:23
knew that by the way when you drop bombs
01:09:25
these sort of very specific bombs we
01:09:27
have now that can hit a hit a very
01:09:29
narrow target and take out a leader um
01:09:32
you get into an escalation trap. Surely
01:09:34
he knew this.
01:09:35
>> I believe I believe General Kaine told
01:09:38
him almost this this in so many words. I
01:09:40
believe and I don't have the exact
01:09:42
evidence for it but we have some
01:09:43
inklings of it.
01:09:44
>> What do you think he thought was going
01:09:45
to happen? I think he I I've described
01:09:48
Trump um as the ultimate chaos kid.
01:09:52
There are people who thrive in chaos.
01:09:54
They feel the best when they're in a
01:09:56
chaotic situation. And I think that he
01:10:00
um believes he can navigate the chaos
01:10:03
better than anybody else. So what I want
01:10:05
to the the answer to the question I was
01:10:06
looking for is what did he think was
01:10:08
going to happen? Did he think I'll drop
01:10:10
these bombs, Hermione will be out,
01:10:12
someone else will come in, then we'll
01:10:13
negotiate with that guy and then we'll
01:10:15
get a better deal? I think that's not
01:10:16
quite I think that's too specific.
01:10:18
People keep looking for that. In my
01:10:20
experience here, it also um is that's
01:10:23
too narrow of a way to understand what I
01:10:26
think happened here. And again, we're
01:10:27
reading quite a bit into very few tea
01:10:29
leaves here because this will come out
01:10:31
over time. But um I believe that what
01:10:34
you're seeing with President Trump is he
01:10:37
likes to do what's called mixing it up.
01:10:38
He wants to get the chaos going and then
01:10:42
he um he reads the chaos very well and
01:10:45
and when it's um a media storm, man,
01:10:48
there's very few people that have beaten
01:10:49
him. Just think about that. That's why
01:10:51
he's president twice. He's he's beaten
01:10:53
quite a few black belts at this, right?
01:10:56
But this is a different story. So if you
01:10:58
take that same MO and you apply it to
01:11:00
political violence, now you have these
01:11:03
other actors. You have this other set of
01:11:05
momentum. you have Israel uh playing
01:11:08
this big role. You have the Iranians
01:11:11
playing a big role. You're suddenly uh
01:11:13
now have more players that can trap you
01:11:16
in the chaos. And this is I think what
01:11:20
has happened. Um now with Venezuela, he
01:11:23
also went through the first stage of the
01:11:26
trap. And notice that with Venezuela, he
01:11:29
just said, "Oh yeah, we're just going to
01:11:30
forget about developing the oil." No
01:11:32
second stage. Okay. So in in with
01:11:35
Venezuela, there's a reason why that has
01:11:37
paused. It's because he didn't go to
01:11:40
stage two because the oil company said,
01:11:42
"We're not going to die for you to build
01:11:44
that oil." So he is basically um he took
01:11:47
out one person, just literally one
01:11:49
person. That person's not even dead yet.
01:11:51
And he's not really developing any of
01:11:53
those oil fields in Venezuela. They're
01:11:55
just not being developed.
01:11:57
>> He said he has a good relationship with
01:11:58
the Venezuelan government. Now the
01:12:00
>> as long as because he's not doing any
01:12:02
the the Venezuelan government, he's
01:12:04
leaving them in place. He's basically
01:12:06
declaring victory and moving on.
01:12:09
>> He removed Maduro, kept the others in
01:12:12
and it sounds
01:12:13
>> and kept the regime.
01:12:14
>> It sounds like that might have somewhat
01:12:16
inspired his move to Bomaran because it
01:12:18
appears on the surface that Venezuela
01:12:21
kind of didn't go too badly. It kind of
01:12:22
was a uh political victory.
01:12:25
>> Chaos Kida chaos
01:12:27
>> snatched him out of bed with his snatch.
01:12:29
But then he stopped. So this would be
01:12:31
the equivalent would be last June. So
01:12:35
last June, okay, he went through stage
01:12:38
one and he tried to stop. What made the
01:12:41
difference here? It wasn't Trump. It was
01:12:43
the intel he got from Netanyahu. The
01:12:46
phone call from Netanyahu, which is uh
01:12:49
President Trump getting ready. We're
01:12:50
about to assassinate the supreme leader
01:12:52
and about 20 of his associate the other
01:12:54
leaders here. you decide how you want to
01:12:57
handle this, but we're we're taking off.
01:12:59
And so that is that did not happen with
01:13:01
with uh with um uh the Maduro regime. So
01:13:04
just imagine that there was another
01:13:06
country that had after Trump took out
01:13:09
Maduro decided they were going to keep
01:13:11
assassinating u the regime in uh
01:13:14
Venezuela. Now you would be in a
01:13:17
different story.
01:13:18
>> You made a quite famous prediction,
01:13:20
professor. You predicted in 2009 that
01:13:22
America's era as the world's only
01:13:24
superpower was ending.
01:13:26
>> Oh yes, and I think that is true. We
01:13:28
haven't talked about China, but I
01:13:29
believe that since Trump has come into
01:13:31
office, he's making China number one.
01:13:34
His tariffs have done nothing but um uh
01:13:37
help China. Uh China's been on charm
01:13:41
offensive since the tariffs have have
01:13:43
been and and they're picking up all the
01:13:45
pieces. I was just spent two weeks in
01:13:47
China in June while we were bombing um
01:13:50
Iran. I said I had to learn how to do
01:13:52
social media. I toured Advanced
01:13:55
Industries in China for two solid weeks.
01:13:59
One of the most amazing visits uh trips
01:14:02
I've ever had in my whole career and it
01:14:04
was stunning. So Stephen, since co
01:14:08
almost nobody has gone to uh China. Now
01:14:11
if they have they've gone to Beijing or
01:14:13
Shanghai. They haven't gone to Wuhan.
01:14:16
They haven't gone to Shenshen. Visited
01:14:18
the BYD uh electric car factories. Um
01:14:22
seeing the robots that are now doing the
01:14:25
metallergy and you can't see it very
01:14:27
well on the web because China's keeping
01:14:29
it to themselves. They don't want to
01:14:31
brag about it. They're going they're
01:14:33
motoring ahead. So Wuhan, to give you an
01:14:36
example, Wuhan is kind of like
01:14:38
Pittsburgh. It's a bigger version of
01:14:40
Pittsburgh. It's an old steel area.
01:14:43
That's not Wuhan today. Wuhan today is
01:14:47
the AI. It's it's developing not just a
01:14:50
robotic company. They're uplifting 9
01:14:54
million people in Wuhan. Their uh
01:14:58
medicine is improved. Their
01:15:00
infrastructure is improved. They have
01:15:02
more construction jobs than ever before
01:15:06
because they have to build so much to
01:15:08
uplift the whole 9 million people. This
01:15:11
is what Pittsburgh should have been and
01:15:14
hasn't been. And I know I'm from Western
01:15:16
Pennsylvania. It's heartbreaking to me
01:15:18
to watch what's happened to Pittsburgh
01:15:20
over the last 30 or 40 years. Wuhan,
01:15:23
exactly the same trajectory. An old
01:15:25
steel uh um city is now one of the lead
01:15:29
areas here in they have a robotic
01:15:32
Silicon Valley there that I visited um
01:15:34
and so forth.
01:15:35
>> And why does this matter? Why does it
01:15:36
matter if the US are no longer the
01:15:38
world's superpower? What what then does
01:15:40
history tell us is the consequence of
01:15:41
that?
01:15:42
>> The consequence is first of all you get
01:15:46
enormous tension here uh for violence.
01:15:50
So when you see big hegemonic shifts
01:15:54
>> hegemonic
01:15:54
>> uh that means when one leader the the
01:15:57
world's number one becomes uh replaced
01:16:00
by another bad things happen. This is
01:16:03
what happened how you got the wars
01:16:05
between Britain and France when they
01:16:07
were fighting theirs wars. This is how
01:16:08
you got world war essentially world war
01:16:11
I because of the the rise and fall of
01:16:14
Germany versus uh uh Russia versus
01:16:17
Britain. So these rising and fall they
01:16:20
make a huge difference. Doesn't always
01:16:22
happen. The one time it was peaceful was
01:16:25
when America replaced Britain as number
01:16:27
one. So just think about that. But other
01:16:30
times have been very tense.
01:16:32
>> So how does China feel that the US are
01:16:34
now at war with the Middle East? So,
01:16:37
what's interesting is to get ready for
01:16:39
coming on here. I listened to the All-In
01:16:41
podcast, and I hope that's okay to talk
01:16:42
about somebody else's podcast. I love
01:16:44
that.
01:16:44
>> I think they're brilliant, by the way. I
01:16:46
love it. But what they said just in the
01:16:48
most recent is that that Trump's playing
01:16:50
a game for China. What they said is
01:16:51
China shaking in its boots and that what
01:16:54
this is about is uh it's it's kind of
01:16:56
Venezuela plus Iran is all about to
01:16:59
cause shei to be shaking in his boots in
01:17:01
in April so that um he will somehow make
01:17:04
some bigger deal with Trump. I think
01:17:06
this is just wrong. I think that it may
01:17:08
be that there's some uh uh you know,
01:17:11
China does absolutely buy 90% of Iran's
01:17:14
oil. There's no we're not disagreeing
01:17:16
with the facts of the matter. It's the
01:17:18
interpretation and the consequences for
01:17:21
who's going to be number one down the
01:17:23
road. So my assessment here is China uh
01:17:28
is probably thrilled that we're on the
01:17:31
verge of getting into another quagmire
01:17:33
in the Middle East and that they would
01:17:36
gladly give up. They have about 20% of
01:17:39
their GDP that turn energy not GDP 20%
01:17:42
of their energy it's a much smaller
01:17:43
fraction of their GDP that turns on the
01:17:45
oil issue. uh most of their energy is
01:17:48
not generated through through oil. And
01:17:50
so I think they would really if they had
01:17:53
to give all of the Middle Eastern oil up
01:17:55
to suck us in to a another forever war
01:17:58
with Iran that would go on for years and
01:18:01
years. Oh my goodness gracious. Because
01:18:03
they see themselves as growing through
01:18:07
Asia and spreading their wings through
01:18:10
Asia. And so to get us pinned down in
01:18:14
the Middle East with an even bigger
01:18:16
problem than we had with Iraq, this is
01:18:19
mana from heaven for China. And that's
01:18:21
what I they told that's what I saw when
01:18:23
I was there.
01:18:24
>> If I was Putin or if I was running
01:18:25
China, based on everything you've said
01:18:27
and based on everything I know, I would
01:18:28
really want this war to go on for a long
01:18:30
time.
01:18:31
>> Oh, for sure.
01:18:32
>> I'd really so I'd really be helping
01:18:33
Iran, you know, prolong this thing. And
01:18:36
also because Russia are in their own
01:18:38
situation at the moment with Ukraine.
01:18:40
So, it's quite a distraction from
01:18:43
whatever Putin's objectives are in
01:18:44
Ukraine. No one's really talking about
01:18:45
Ukraine this week.
01:18:47
>> And it's bad for the Ukrainians because
01:18:48
what's happening is by by by the little
01:18:51
bit that Putin has gotten himself
01:18:53
involved here, there is a chance he set
01:18:56
the stage for a deal, which is again
01:18:58
America stops the intel to the
01:19:00
Ukrainians, if Russia will stop the
01:19:02
intel to Iran. That is much much much to
01:19:05
Putin's advantage with Ukraine. So, I
01:19:08
think that you have a situation here,
01:19:10
Stephen, where Putin, it's not so much
01:19:12
he's he's itching to get in the fight,
01:19:14
is he's trying to do it in ways that he
01:19:17
gets something out of it in his in his
01:19:19
relations war with Ukraine.
01:19:22
>> Think about that with President Xi. I
01:19:23
don't think the Chinese want to get in
01:19:25
the fight. I think, in fact, right now,
01:19:28
if I'm if I'm assessing this correctly,
01:19:31
they're probably not wanting to get in
01:19:32
the way of an enemy who's shooting
01:19:34
himself in both feet. So right now,
01:19:36
America's damaging itself a lot more
01:19:39
than China could. And if China inserts
01:19:42
itself, there's a very good chance then
01:19:44
that would help Trump again pull a
01:19:46
rabbit out of a hat. I don't think they
01:19:48
want to do that. I think right now you
01:19:50
just look at this from we're running out
01:19:52
of what's called standoff PGMs.
01:19:54
Remember, Secretary Heg said, "Well,
01:19:56
yeah, okay, we're running out of
01:19:57
standoff PGMs, but we got to do
01:19:59
something from the from the the the
01:20:01
bombs that we can drop more over
01:20:03
country." Well, that's the problem for a
01:20:05
problem for Taiwan. If we're going to
01:20:07
defend Taiwan, we've got to do this with
01:20:10
long standoff precision weapons. And we
01:20:13
all everybody who studies this knows
01:20:16
that. So, if we're really running low on
01:20:19
standoff precision weapons, she's just
01:20:22
licking his chops thinking, "My
01:20:23
goodness, how much better does this
01:20:25
get?"
01:20:27
>> If Trump was listening,
01:20:30
probably not the case. I think he just
01:20:31
watches CNN and Fox News.
01:20:34
>> Um, but if Trump was listening, what
01:20:35
would you say to him?
01:20:36
>> What I would tell him is take the deal.
01:20:37
I would say stop right now and do
01:20:40
everything possible to go back to the
01:20:42
deal you rejected the day before you
01:20:44
started bombing. And what your goal
01:20:46
should be is to get as much of the 60%
01:20:50
enriched uranium out of the country as
01:20:53
possible. If uh you could also get the
01:20:55
20% enriched uranium out, that would be
01:20:58
good, too. But you're probably not going
01:21:00
to get as good a deal. Uh because the
01:21:02
supreme leader you were dealing with is
01:21:04
gone and you now have a much tougher. So
01:21:07
you might have to accept President Trump
01:21:09
a worse deal.
01:21:10
>> Are we just kicking the can down the
01:21:11
road here? Because if you're an Iranian,
01:21:13
like you've said, you've watched bombs
01:21:15
drop. You've you've realized that the
01:21:16
reason why you are such a target is
01:21:18
because you don't have these nuclear
01:21:19
weapons. So is there not an element
01:21:21
where Iran getting nuclear weapons is um
01:21:25
inevitable in some way? So Stephen, this
01:21:27
is the myth of 100% security. So we see
01:21:30
this in not just America but in lots of
01:21:33
uh conflicts in history where the idea
01:21:36
that you don't have 100% security leads
01:21:39
you to essentially do things that look
01:21:42
like suicide for fear of death. So so we
01:21:45
know that that there is a long-term
01:21:48
problem out there. And sometimes a
01:21:50
really good solution is to freeze it for
01:21:53
20 years. just freeze it for 20 years.
01:21:56
And you know what? It's you're right.
01:21:58
You didn't permanently take it off the
01:21:59
table. But if you can freeze a problem
01:22:02
for 20 years, that's actually a lot of
01:22:05
you might get lucky. You might get
01:22:07
something good like the Soviet Union
01:22:09
might just fall apart on you, you know,
01:22:10
out of the blue. It might just fall
01:22:12
apart on you. And not because you did
01:22:14
anything. It's just because something
01:22:16
else changed in the world. So the way to
01:22:18
think about this, Stephen, is not this
01:22:20
idea that we're going to take an action
01:22:22
and have 100% security. This is how big
01:22:26
powers lose wars.
01:22:28
Big powers are up against these little
01:22:31
countries. And think about how often
01:22:34
they lose. We lose to Vietnam. That's
01:22:37
how I got into this business in the
01:22:39
first place. I wanted to understand
01:22:40
that. And so this idea of the search for
01:22:43
perfect security is often getting us
01:22:45
into trouble.
01:22:47
kick a can down. You You're right. It's
01:22:49
only 20 years. I'll take that. That's
01:22:52
better than where we are right now.
01:22:54
Professor Robert Pap of all the things
01:22:57
that we've talked about um
01:23:01
>> which has been a wonderful conversation
01:23:02
by the way
01:23:03
>> and very diverse but really focused on
01:23:05
this subject of what's going on in the
01:23:06
world at the moment with Iran and Trump
01:23:07
and America as decline. What is the
01:23:09
thing that we should have talked about
01:23:10
that we didn't talk about? The big
01:23:13
thing, well, we're finally getting to it
01:23:15
at the end, is the real consequence of
01:23:19
what President Trump has done since
01:23:21
coming into office. uh the real
01:23:24
consequence of the tariffs, the real
01:23:26
consequence of not just uh threatening
01:23:29
um uh discussion of Greenland, but but
01:23:32
becoming very aggressive with our
01:23:34
European allies on Greenland, being very
01:23:36
aggressive to the point of um um a
01:23:39
taking out a leader from Venezuela,
01:23:41
which is uh in our Western Hemisphere.
01:23:43
So, it's creating what this is really
01:23:46
doing is it's threatening America's
01:23:48
primacy. So I am a big believer that
01:23:52
America should be the strongest most
01:23:54
secure state on the planet. I think that
01:23:57
is good for us.
01:23:59
That means that it does make it is
01:24:02
valuable to be the top dog to be the
01:24:04
number one strongest economic military
01:24:07
power. But in order to do that you have
01:24:10
to be the world's number one economy for
01:24:12
real. And with $40 trillion in debt, um
01:24:17
with uh us pushing away our trading
01:24:19
partners, with us uh engaging in hostile
01:24:24
actions here which are scaring the rest
01:24:26
of the world to further drift away from
01:24:29
us and maybe not side with China, but be
01:24:32
neutral. Oh my goodness gracious. And
01:24:34
and again, as I said before, China is
01:24:37
motoring ahead on the AI revolution.
01:24:41
We're talking AI, but are we really
01:24:44
doing Wuhan? Are we up to Wuhan? I think
01:24:47
it would be interesting for uh for uh
01:24:50
folks to go to Wuhan um and actually
01:24:52
visit uh or go to Senchan uh and visit
01:24:56
um or go to Hang Cho and visit and see
01:24:59
where uh Alibaba is and see uh that it's
01:25:03
it's not just one company here. It's not
01:25:05
just deep seek that there's clusters
01:25:08
that are being built that are uplifting
01:25:12
10 million people at a swath. And my
01:25:15
goodness, why aren't we doing that in
01:25:17
America? We certainly need that in the
01:25:18
restaurant belt.
01:25:19
>> We're too distracted.
01:25:20
>> We're too distracted, which is what I'm
01:25:22
trying to say is to China's advantage.
01:25:25
And I think this is the real long-term
01:25:28
price, which is are we actually eroding
01:25:33
our position as the world's number one?
01:25:37
And I think our primacy is in is in
01:25:39
danger.
01:25:40
>> Professor Robert Pap, we have a closing
01:25:42
tradition on this podcast where the last
01:25:44
guest leaves a question for the next
01:25:45
guest, not knowing who they're leaving
01:25:47
it for. Ah,
01:25:48
>> the question left for you is what is the
01:25:52
prediction you have for the future that
01:25:54
most people do not want to hear?
01:25:59
>> Well, this is going to lead into the
01:26:01
conversation. So, I have a book coming
01:26:02
out in September called Our own Worst
01:26:04
Enemies. As bad as all this problem is,
01:26:08
Stephen, as bad as it is, I have spent
01:26:12
the last several years focusing on
01:26:15
what's happening with political violence
01:26:17
in the United States and its
01:26:19
normalization.
01:26:21
And the most the biggest danger that we
01:26:24
face, even bigger than Iran and all the
01:26:28
problems we've just talked about, is the
01:26:31
normalization of political violence in
01:26:33
our own country. And by political
01:26:34
violence, you mean
01:26:36
>> I'm I'm talking about in the last 10
01:26:38
years, we have seen a surge of violent
01:26:43
riots. We have seen a surge of political
01:26:47
assassinations
01:26:49
that we haven't seen since the 1960s. On
01:26:52
top of that, we've just had Operation
01:26:54
Midway Blitz in my city, Chicago. That
01:26:57
is the surge of militarized um enforce
01:27:02
immigration enforcement. Oh,
01:27:04
>> which surged ice which surged into
01:27:07
neighborhoods over over almost 300
01:27:11
times.
01:27:11
>> Crazy.
01:27:12
>> Not just a small. And then what happened
01:27:14
after they left um uh Chicago is they
01:27:18
did even more of that in Minneapolis. So
01:27:23
these this trajectory
01:27:26
Stephen that we're on where we are
01:27:28
seeing the incredible normalization of
01:27:31
political violence and it's happening on
01:27:33
both the right and the left. It's not
01:27:35
I'm not trying to make moral equivalence
01:27:36
but it is h and the book will explain
01:27:38
this is probably the greatest danger
01:27:42
that we face because if we are our own
01:27:46
worst enemies. Think of what that means
01:27:49
for us being that great power that that
01:27:53
is so important for us and the great
01:27:55
future we want for our families and our
01:27:58
our our communities here. We are in
01:28:01
danger of becoming our own worst
01:28:03
enemies. Not for a day, not for a month,
01:28:05
but for years.
01:28:08
>> Professor, thank you so much. Um, if
01:28:10
anyone wants to go and read more about
01:28:11
many of the things we've talked about
01:28:12
today, where do they go? Substack. I'll
01:28:14
link below.
01:28:14
>> I would I would go you can read my books
01:28:16
on it. You can get them from Amazon. I
01:28:19
would go to Substack. And then, and
01:28:20
that's the escalation trap. Um, and I
01:28:23
would also just be aware that there will
01:28:26
be uh more discussion of political
01:28:27
violence. So, it's not just political
01:28:28
violence abroad and it's not just
01:28:30
political violence at home. It is both
01:28:32
happening at the same time.
01:28:35
>> Professor, thank you so much.
01:28:36
>> Thank you very much. Really, really
01:28:38
enjoyed it. Thank you.
01:28:39
>> Thank you so much. That was fantastic.
01:28:40
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