00:00:00
So there are five scenarios in which the
00:00:02
war could end because Trump is stupid
00:00:03
enough to take on what Israel wanted to
00:00:06
do, which was destroy Iran, but they've
00:00:08
bitten off far more than they can chew.
00:00:10
So scenario one is Iran destroys the
00:00:12
Gulf power infrastructure. I think
00:00:13
that's highly likely. And if that
00:00:15
happens, then Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
00:00:18
Dubai, they'll become uninhabitable. And
00:00:20
then scenario two, Iran disables
00:00:22
Israel's nukes. I hope that happens, but
00:00:24
there's this one. And it scares the
00:00:27
out of me. Professor Steve, I have so
00:00:29
many questions. What is going on?
00:00:30
>> So, this war is threatening everybody on
00:00:32
the planet. And what Trump is doing at
00:00:33
the moment is a pump and dump scheme.
00:00:35
He's trying to drive up the oil price
00:00:36
and exploiting it for his friends and
00:00:38
for his own wealth in the process. So,
00:00:40
people are focusing upon the price of
00:00:42
this. But the really important point is
00:00:44
this, the straight of Ham. So, oil,
00:00:46
fertilizer, helium all have to pass
00:00:48
through the straight of Ham
00:00:49
>> and Iran have blocked that gap.
00:00:51
>> So, they can say you do or do not pass
00:00:53
depending on your country's attitude
00:00:55
towards our country. And that's quite
00:00:57
terrifying because 20 to 30% of our
00:00:59
fertilizer comes through at this point.
00:01:00
But if this is not available, the globe
00:01:02
has a famine.
00:01:03
>> Do you think he will send ground troops
00:01:04
in?
00:01:04
>> Yes, I do. But I'd hate to be one of
00:01:06
those troops because it's a suicide
00:01:08
mission. They've got underground
00:01:09
military units of weapons and troops,
00:01:11
but we have no idea of the scale.
00:01:13
>> Trump keeps saying that the war has been
00:01:14
won.
00:01:15
>> Yeah.
00:01:15
>> What's going on there in your view?
00:01:16
>> I think he's been fed propaganda to tell
00:01:19
him that he's winning the war by his
00:01:21
immediate advisers because you cannot
00:01:23
tell a person like that that they've
00:01:24
made a mistake. We'll talk about that as
00:01:26
well. But you developed a bit of a
00:01:27
reputation because you're very good at
00:01:28
predicting things. So, which of these
00:01:30
five outcomes do you think is most
00:01:32
probable to happen?
00:01:34
>> Oh god,
00:01:37
>> this is super interesting to me. My team
00:01:39
given me this report to show me how many
00:01:40
of you that watch this show subscribe
00:01:41
and some of you have told us according
00:01:43
to this that you are unsubscribed from
00:01:45
the channel randomly. So, favor to ask
00:01:47
all of you, please could you check right
00:01:49
now if you've hit the subscribe button
00:01:50
if you are a regular viewer of the show
00:01:51
and you like what we do here. We're
00:01:53
approaching quite a significant landmark
00:01:54
on this show in terms of a subscriber
00:01:56
number. So, if there was one simple free
00:01:59
thing that you could do to help us, my
00:02:00
team, everyone here to keep this show
00:02:02
free, to keep it improving year over
00:02:04
year and week over week, it is just to
00:02:06
hit that subscribe button and to double
00:02:08
check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll
00:02:09
ever ask of you, do we have a deal? If
00:02:11
you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do.
00:02:13
I'll make sure every single week, every
00:02:15
single month, we fight harder and harder
00:02:16
and harder and harder to bring you the
00:02:18
guests and conversations that you want
00:02:19
to hear. I've stayed true to that
00:02:20
promise since the very beginning of the
00:02:21
D ofio and I will not let you down.
00:02:25
Please help us. Really appreciate it.
00:02:26
Let's get on with the show.
00:02:35
>> Professor Steven, who who are you? If
00:02:38
you had to sort of distill it down to
00:02:39
three areas of specialism, what would
00:02:41
those be? history of economic thought,
00:02:44
financial instability, so the what
00:02:46
causes volatility in the in the economy
00:02:49
and the dynamics of money and ironically
00:02:53
it makes me a minority in economics
00:02:56
because most economists ignore money
00:02:57
completely.
00:02:58
>> It's a strange thing to you.
00:03:00
>> It's ridiculous but it's true.
00:03:01
>> We'll talk about that as well today. I
00:03:02
really want to focus on what's going on
00:03:04
in the world right now because there's
00:03:05
so many questions. It's it's all quite
00:03:08
confusing
00:03:08
>> extremely
00:03:09
>> and understanding the layers of
00:03:10
motivation that you know Trump has, Iran
00:03:13
have, Israel have is um it's a difficult
00:03:16
jigsaw puzzle to put together.
00:03:19
>> I guess the the question that I keep
00:03:21
asking myself is like what is going on?
00:03:24
>> You can't get away from the fact that
00:03:25
we've basically elected a mafia dawn to
00:03:28
president of the United States. You've
00:03:30
got a guy who
00:03:32
admires the mafia
00:03:34
who's running the country. So what we're
00:03:37
getting in some ways is a shakeddown
00:03:38
rather than anything driven by any sense
00:03:41
of political necessity. Okay. So that's
00:03:44
that's a crazy element to begin with.
00:03:47
And the American deep state as it's
00:03:50
called has been anti-Iran for 40 or 50
00:03:53
years. Israel has wanted to defeat Iran
00:03:56
for that length of time. Trump is stupid
00:03:58
enough but also cunning enough. It's a
00:04:00
combination of the two to take on what
00:04:04
Israel wanted to do, which was destroy
00:04:06
Iran. They're now trying to do it and
00:04:08
they're finding that they've they've
00:04:10
bitten off far more than they can chew.
00:04:12
>> Trump is someone who cares a lot about
00:04:13
people's opinions of him and he must
00:04:17
have known that this would be
00:04:18
politically unpopular to target around
00:04:20
at this moment in time.
00:04:22
>> I don't think so. I had a relationship
00:04:24
with somebody with narcissistic
00:04:25
personality disorder. So that's
00:04:27
something over and above what I learned
00:04:29
academically that I when I think about
00:04:31
his behavior and somebody like that,
00:04:33
they want to be the center of attention
00:04:35
at all times. They can't stand it when
00:04:38
somebody else is being spoken about.
00:04:39
It's ridiculous, but it's it's a
00:04:41
pathology. So he's interested in
00:04:43
people's opinions so long as they're
00:04:45
positive and they're about him.
00:04:47
>> So you are you saying that he attacked
00:04:49
Iran and started this war in part
00:04:50
because he wanted attention?
00:04:52
>> That's always something with somebody
00:04:54
who's got that disorder. Yeah.
00:04:56
>> I mean, what do you think about his
00:04:58
rational? He's saying that he attacked
00:04:59
Iran because they had nuclear weapons
00:05:01
and they were there was an imminent
00:05:02
threat.
00:05:03
>> We still don't know whether Iran has
00:05:04
nuclear weapons. Okay. We know that
00:05:07
Israel has. If you're going to attack a
00:05:09
country with you, you should attack
00:05:10
Israel, not Iran.
00:05:12
>> But you can't attack attack Israel, can
00:05:13
you? Cuz
00:05:14
>> I cannot make sense of what politicians
00:05:16
all over the planet are doing these
00:05:17
days. There's a huge gap between what
00:05:20
politicians are saying about global
00:05:22
politics and what people in the street
00:05:24
are saying about it. So people on the
00:05:26
street have seen the Gaza genocide.
00:05:28
They've seen all the conflicts Israel
00:05:30
has started there. And I think the
00:05:32
general sentiment in most countries in
00:05:34
the world today is anti-Israel because
00:05:37
of the way it's treating the
00:05:38
Palestinians. And that's what people are
00:05:40
thinking about. the top echelons like in
00:05:42
this country as you know if I if I say
00:05:44
free Palestine I say that outside on the
00:05:47
street I can be arrested it's crazy what
00:05:52
there's a huge divorce between what
00:05:54
people are thinking and what the
00:05:56
politicians are saying and I can't give
00:05:59
any explanation for that divorce apart
00:06:02
from believing that Israel has something
00:06:05
over our political leaders
00:06:06
>> what do you mean you think they have
00:06:08
something over our political leaders
00:06:09
>> I think there
00:06:11
We know about the whole Epstein. The the
00:06:12
way that the Iranians refer to what's
00:06:14
happening is they say they're fighting
00:06:15
the Epstein class and there's belief
00:06:17
that there's something where Epstein
00:06:20
has been working for with the Israeli
00:06:22
intelligence service and has blackmailed
00:06:25
worthy material on a huge range of
00:06:27
politicians. And that's the only way
00:06:30
that I can explain the the sort of
00:06:31
things that politicians are supporting
00:06:33
when their populace is angry about those
00:06:36
same policies. So you get demonstrations
00:06:38
here, you know, free Palestine
00:06:40
demonstrations, 80-year-old female
00:06:42
vicers being arrested for saying this
00:06:45
sort of stuff. You go back 40 years ago,
00:06:47
there was a a a belief in the public and
00:06:50
a belief amongst politicians that Israel
00:06:53
had a right to exist and it was all
00:06:54
pro-Israel. And now after 40 years, the
00:06:58
type of abuses that have happened in
00:07:00
Palestine have hit individual ordinary
00:07:04
people's attitudes to Israel. So
00:07:06
ordinary people are saying Israel's the
00:07:08
aggressor. Israel's making the mistakes.
00:07:10
But the politicians are all saying it's
00:07:12
a it's it's anti- um Seemitic to
00:07:15
criticize Israel.
00:07:17
>> If you had to give a a one-s sentence
00:07:19
answer as to why this war started
00:07:23
because we sort of hypothesized a few
00:07:25
things there. What would that one
00:07:26
sentence answer be?
00:07:31
>> Again, this is trying to make sense of
00:07:32
the senseless. I just think Israel
00:07:35
wanted to destroy Iran. They thought
00:07:37
they could do it and they thought they
00:07:38
had an American president who would help
00:07:40
them do it and they I drastically
00:07:42
underestimated how prepared Iran was for
00:07:44
that conflict.
00:07:46
>> Why would Israel want to destroy Iran?
00:07:48
What's the context there?
00:07:50
>> This goes back to religious elements.
00:07:52
The Zionist state had the right to that
00:07:54
whole region and there's an expansionist
00:07:57
element to Israel's behavior for the
00:07:59
last 40 years. And the major rival they
00:08:02
saw themselves as having in that sense
00:08:04
was Iran. They can invade Jordan. They
00:08:06
could attack Lebanon. Uh they could do
00:08:10
all these things. Of course they the 67
00:08:13
war. Uh they wiped out the is Arab
00:08:16
invading Arabian armies in six days.
00:08:18
They have this past history of being
00:08:21
militarily dominant in the area and they
00:08:24
they knew that Iran was too big for them
00:08:26
to take on on their own. They thought
00:08:28
they could get the Americans in there
00:08:29
and I think they drastically
00:08:30
underestimated how prepared Iran was for
00:08:33
this situation.
00:08:34
>> When you say Iran were prepared for this
00:08:36
situation and it somewhat surprised
00:08:38
Israel and the US. What is that
00:08:40
preparedness you're speaking about?
00:08:41
Well, it's for a start the the fact that
00:08:43
Iran witnessed that there were um
00:08:46
decapitation attacks on other countries
00:08:49
in the region going way way back not
00:08:51
just the last 10 years but the last 40
00:08:54
or 50 years decapitation
00:08:56
>> you take off the leader you kill the
00:08:57
leaders and then with the leaders killed
00:08:59
the armies in disarray and you can come
00:09:01
in and invade and take over. So getting
00:09:03
rid of Saddam Hussein that sort of thing
00:09:05
you know wipe out Saddam Hussein's power
00:09:07
base and then the whole system
00:09:09
collapses. That was the Iraq story. But
00:09:11
the Iranians observed that and they have
00:09:15
broken their military into 31 divisions.
00:09:17
There are 31 provinces like 31 states in
00:09:20
that sense inside Iran. Their military
00:09:23
has broken into those 31 units. They've
00:09:25
got their own fail safe system running
00:09:27
in the background. They've got their own
00:09:29
resources, their own missiles,
00:09:31
production systems, all that sort of
00:09:33
stuff. So you've got to take out the
00:09:35
whole 31 and then they'd have that sub
00:09:38
area. So the only way you can beat the
00:09:39
country is by literally bombing it to
00:09:42
back to the stone age
00:09:43
>> which is appears to be what they've been
00:09:45
trying to do
00:09:46
>> trying to do. But the thing is it's a
00:09:47
huge country. I mean look at you know
00:09:48
the scale of around the map's always
00:09:50
distort how large. So that is larger.
00:09:52
That's more than half the size of
00:09:53
Western Europe. It's got a population of
00:09:56
90 million about 1/3 or one quarter the
00:09:58
population of Europe far more than Iraq.
00:10:01
>> I mean it looks like it's double the
00:10:02
size of the UK or more
00:10:04
>> or more than double. I mean you know one
00:10:06
thing about the MA projection.
00:10:07
>> No. What's that?
00:10:08
>> Okay. It's that it's it makes the the
00:10:10
northern hemisphere is twice as large as
00:10:12
the southern and arounds in the northern
00:10:14
hemisphere but not as far north as
00:10:16
England. So the distortion gets
00:10:17
amplified the further north you go. So
00:10:19
it's bigger than France and Germany and
00:10:21
Italy and Spain
00:10:23
>> and possibly Poland in terms of area.
00:10:26
And then if you even see just looking on
00:10:27
the map itself you can see the
00:10:28
corrugations there versus what you can
00:10:31
see corrugation
00:10:33
>> the what representing mountains. Okay.
00:10:35
>> Okay. There's more mountains inside
00:10:36
there. It's a hor it's a horrendous
00:10:38
terrain to fight a war on. I think what
00:10:40
Trump is doing at the moment is a pump
00:10:42
and dump scheme. He's trying to drive up
00:10:44
the oil price, tell friends beforehand
00:10:47
that he's about to make his announcement
00:10:49
which will cause the price to fall and
00:10:51
he's just oscillating this way up and
00:10:53
down and exploiting it for his friends
00:10:56
and for his own wealth in the process.
00:10:57
>> Do you actually think that's the case?
00:10:59
Because this must be make sense of this
00:11:02
stuff. this must be hurting his friends
00:11:03
economically because the this, you know,
00:11:05
the stock market's going to take a dip
00:11:06
if he's not careful and his friends are
00:11:08
all shareholders in different big
00:11:09
companies. So, you know, also if you
00:11:12
know like the one of Kane's great lines
00:11:14
was that there's no point in buying a
00:11:17
stock which you think is going to
00:11:18
increase in value over time if you think
00:11:20
it's going to slump in the immediate
00:11:22
future. So, he's making an announcement
00:11:24
which causes oil markets to panic. So,
00:11:26
the price goes up. We've given him
00:11:28
control of the most powerful country on
00:11:30
the planet. He knows if you make an
00:11:32
announcement, it moves markets. He has
00:11:35
no compunction whatsoever in exploiting
00:11:37
that to cause rises and falls in prices
00:11:40
and try to exploit them himself and with
00:11:42
his friends.
00:11:43
>> I did. I mean, I did see that. I've got
00:11:44
the data here on on the floor showing
00:11:46
those graphs. I I generally looked at
00:11:47
that and thought, yeah, you know, maybe,
00:11:50
but it's also conceivable that Trump is
00:11:52
quite a predictable character and he
00:11:54
tweets at the same time every day. And
00:11:55
it's also I think me and you both know
00:11:57
that before the markets open on a Monday
00:11:59
morning, he's going to want to say
00:12:01
something really positive.
00:12:02
>> He has a track record of doing that. So
00:12:04
is it conceivable that they knew he was
00:12:06
flying because it was tracked that he
00:12:08
was going to be on this plane journey.
00:12:09
There's going to be a press gaggle. We
00:12:11
know he's going to give an interview. I
00:12:12
actually think that was quite
00:12:13
predictable. If I was a betting man, I
00:12:14
would have gone Sunday night or Monday
00:12:16
morning. I would have put a bet on oil
00:12:18
prices coming down, the stock market
00:12:20
going up.
00:12:20
>> Yeah. And like for example that one of
00:12:22
the things he said most recently he
00:12:24
talked about getting a present from Iran
00:12:26
>> and then he finally let slip what the
00:12:27
present was and was letting eight ships
00:12:29
through the straight of Hmas.
00:12:31
>> Oh
00:12:32
those eight ships were not American.
00:12:35
They were other allies. I think what
00:12:37
he's thinking is these um that's going
00:12:39
to mean the oil market gets calmed down.
00:12:42
That means the price is going to fall.
00:12:44
Uh so I can then do another pump and
00:12:46
dump.
00:12:46
>> Let's explain the straight of hormones.
00:12:49
>> Oh god. Yeah. is if we had to explain it
00:12:51
for 16 year olds because there's been
00:12:53
lots of coverage on it and I think some
00:12:54
people have kind of skipped past the
00:12:56
importance of the region. What is the
00:12:58
straight of hormones and why does it
00:12:59
matter?
00:13:00
>> Well, it's the choke point in the
00:13:02
Persian Gulf to get through. You've got
00:13:04
like 21 km. Okay, that's an incredibly
00:13:06
narrow gap for ships to pass through and
00:13:09
that means that all the countries that
00:13:11
pump not just oil but fertilizer, uh,
00:13:14
helium, all these critical elements for
00:13:16
the production system all have to pass
00:13:18
through this point. And obviously that's
00:13:20
well within reach of any weapons from
00:13:22
Iran. So they can say you do or do not
00:13:24
pass depending on whether we approve or
00:13:26
don't approve of your political your
00:13:28
country's attitude towards our country.
00:13:30
>> You said fertilizer.
00:13:32
>> Yeah.
00:13:32
>> Oil and helium.
00:13:34
>> Yeah. Helium.
00:13:35
>> Where are they coming from?
00:13:36
>> They're mainly coming from I think for
00:13:38
mainly from the Saudi Arabian side.
00:13:40
Saudi Arabia and like Iran will have the
00:13:42
same things but Iran would keep it keep
00:13:44
those for themselves but Saudi Arabia is
00:13:47
the main source of gases and oils which
00:13:50
are refined and as byproducts we get
00:13:52
sulfur dioxide and we get helium. This
00:13:55
is the helium.
00:13:56
>> Yeah.
00:13:56
>> Okay. That's you know a couple of kilos
00:13:59
of helium. But helium it's an element
00:14:02
which there's no substitute.
00:14:04
>> So helium is inert.
00:14:07
>> What does that mean? It means it doesn't
00:14:08
interact with other chemicals. You want
00:14:10
to give it a try?
00:14:11
>> I've never done it.
00:14:12
>> I don't think there's any in here.
00:14:13
>> Oh, what a pity. Okay. What I would have
00:14:14
done to give it a try. You got any real
00:14:16
helium?
00:14:18
>> Oh, bloody hell. Helium balloon.
00:14:20
>> Okay.
00:14:24
>> Does it change your voice?
00:14:26
>> I don't know. Has my voice changed?
00:14:27
>> It did. I'll give my voice a try. Okay.
00:14:31
>> Um Okay. I've never done this before,
00:14:33
but I've heard it at parties.
00:14:37
>> Okay. And now I think my voice has
00:14:39
changed somewhat from
00:14:42
the fact you can do it. Oh my god.
00:14:48
That is a riot. Okay.
00:14:49
>> Where is helium coming from?
00:14:51
>> It's coming from a gas field. So about
00:14:53
30% of the world's helium comes from a
00:14:55
gas field which spans both Saudi Arabia
00:14:58
and Iran. If you don't trap helium
00:15:01
physically somehow it goes to outer
00:15:03
space. That's the ultimate destination
00:15:05
of the stuff. So it's trapped in the
00:15:07
same things that trap oil. And then when
00:15:09
you drill for oil, you also get helium
00:15:11
coming out. And then helium is
00:15:13
absolutely critical for the
00:15:15
semiconductor industry. It didn't matter
00:15:17
100 years ago.
00:15:18
>> And semiconductors are important for
00:15:19
what?
00:15:20
>> Everything. I mean you you know your you
00:15:22
take the semiconductors out of that,
00:15:23
you've got a brick. Okay. The the the
00:15:26
processors, the CPUs, the memory chips,
00:15:29
they're all made. Helium is an essential
00:15:31
element to make them
00:15:32
>> for our iPhones, our tablets,
00:15:34
>> everything. Everything electronic. If
00:15:35
you need semiconductors, you need
00:15:37
helium. So if you cut off 30% of the
00:15:39
world's helium supply, you cut off the
00:15:41
capacity to produce 30% of the world's
00:15:44
semiconductors.
00:15:45
>> And Iran have blocked that gap.
00:15:47
>> And that means that we've suddenly lost
00:15:49
30% of the world's helium.
00:15:50
>> I've got a quote from March 2026 from
00:15:52
leading helium expert Phil Cornblutch.
00:15:55
>> He said, "We're looking at a minimum 2
00:15:57
to 3 months shutdown of helium
00:15:59
production with up to 6 months before
00:16:01
supply gets back to normal." and he
00:16:04
explained you can't stockpile helium
00:16:06
because it leaks through containers.
00:16:07
>> Y
00:16:08
>> so once supply is cut off semiconductor
00:16:10
production will stop entirely. South
00:16:13
Korea gets 65% of its helium from Qatar
00:16:16
in that region and makes 2/3 of the
00:16:19
world's memory chips. Their government
00:16:20
has launched an emergency investigation
00:16:22
into the shortage. Nobody's talking
00:16:24
about this.
00:16:24
>> I know. And this this is one reason it's
00:16:26
quite terrifying about the scale of what
00:16:28
we're going through cuz people just
00:16:30
thinking it's going to be oil's going to
00:16:31
be more expensive. That's the sort of
00:16:33
mindset we have. But in fact, critical
00:16:36
elements of the production system are
00:16:38
being terminated by this conflict. You
00:16:40
can't produce chips anymore. And you
00:16:42
can't Well, you got hang on. You can't
00:16:44
produce these chips either because the
00:16:46
fertilizer is disappearing.
00:16:47
>> So, you're holding a potato in your
00:16:49
hand.
00:16:49
>> Yeah.
00:16:50
>> How are potato chips going to be
00:16:52
impacted by the water?
00:16:53
>> Because the fertilizer. If we don't have
00:16:55
the fertilizer, we can't grow the
00:16:56
potatoes. And it's not just potatoes.
00:16:58
It's a whole range of crops. We eat
00:17:00
food, okay? We eat this green stuff. It
00:17:02
actually starts as brown stuff because
00:17:05
the fertilizer is an essential part of
00:17:07
growing all the food we eat. And the
00:17:09
fertilizer is produced by a process
00:17:11
called the habber bosch process which
00:17:13
takes petroleum and nitrogen and fixes
00:17:17
them in such a way that you can put this
00:17:18
on the on the field and your plants will
00:17:20
grow courtesy of the fertilizer. If we
00:17:23
didn't have fertilizer at all, guess how
00:17:25
many billion people the planet could
00:17:27
actually support?
00:17:28
>> I don't know.
00:17:29
>> Between one and two. And fertilizer
00:17:31
comes from this region.
00:17:32
>> Again, 20 to 30% of our fertilizer comes
00:17:34
from that region.
00:17:35
>> Through the straight of
00:17:36
>> through the straight of Hamos.
00:17:37
>> Where is it coming from?
00:17:38
>> It's coming again from the the same gas
00:17:41
field that's producing the helium
00:17:43
produces a side effect of fertilizer.
00:17:46
And you need you need I'm not a chemist,
00:17:48
okay? So I can get these things wrong,
00:17:50
but you need sulfur. You need sulfuric
00:17:52
acid as well as part of these production
00:17:53
processes. 20% of the world's
00:17:55
fertilizer, helium, sulfuric acid, all
00:17:59
pass through that straight. And if you
00:18:01
take them away, then you can't make
00:18:03
microchips, which is what Korea is
00:18:05
suffering from. You can't make
00:18:07
fertilizer, which which everybody will
00:18:10
suffer from. If we lost 20% of the
00:18:12
world's fertilizer, we'd lose roughly
00:18:14
20% of the world's food. And it cause a
00:18:16
global famine. We've never had this
00:18:17
experience before. We've had localized
00:18:20
famines. You know, countries like India
00:18:21
have had famines in parts of Africa and
00:18:23
so on. But if this is not available, the
00:18:25
globe has a famine.
00:18:27
>> And what's the last uh tanker you've got
00:18:28
down there? There's one more on the
00:18:29
floor.
00:18:30
>> Oh my god. Okay.
00:18:32
Hey, that's pretty good. It was
00:18:33
accidental, but that's that's petroleum.
00:18:35
Okay. A petroleum tank. Obviously empty.
00:18:37
20 L.
00:18:38
>> So that's oil.
00:18:39
>> That's oil.
00:18:40
>> Oil. Okay. And so if that that's what
00:18:42
we're losing right now and people are
00:18:44
focusing upon the price of this but the
00:18:46
really important point and I can bring
00:18:47
up one of my own charts here is the role
00:18:51
of energy in production because if we
00:18:54
don't have energy we can't produce goods
00:18:56
and services and the link is incredibly
00:18:58
tight. This is looking at change in
00:19:01
energy and change in gross world product
00:19:04
over the last 40 years. I'll throw this
00:19:06
graph on the screen for people that are
00:19:07
watching.
00:19:07
>> Okay. So, what what you've got here is
00:19:09
the annual percentage change in gross
00:19:11
world product and the annual percentage
00:19:13
change in gross energy consumption. And
00:19:15
they're virtually lock step and they're
00:19:17
the same magnitude.
00:19:18
>> So, when energy goes up, GDP goes up.
00:19:20
>> And when energy goes down, GDP goes
00:19:22
down. Now, we're losing 20% of the
00:19:25
world's liquefied natural gas, a
00:19:28
substantial proportion of its oil as
00:19:29
well. We could see a 5 or 10% fall in
00:19:32
energy. we will certainly see a 5 or 10%
00:19:35
fall in global world gross world
00:19:37
product.
00:19:37
>> So explain that to me. So where is the
00:19:39
oil in this region?
00:19:40
>> It's everywhere.
00:19:41
>> Okay.
00:19:42
>> I mean this this is one of the accidents
00:19:43
of history that the oil is a large part
00:19:46
is concentrated here and a large part
00:19:48
over here and a bit in Russia.
00:19:49
>> So over here for people that can't see
00:19:51
you're pointing at Iran, Saudi Arabia,
00:19:54
>> Saudi Arabia,
00:19:55
>> Iraq and then there's a lot in the
00:19:57
United States and there's a lot
00:19:58
>> you've got some in Russia as well. There
00:20:00
was a small amount like the North Sea
00:20:02
had a substantial amount of oil as well
00:20:04
at one stage.
00:20:05
>> And the type of oil in this region I
00:20:07
hear is quite important.
00:20:08
>> It's very I mean oil there's no such
00:20:11
thing as a homogeneous product.
00:20:12
>> What does homogeneous mean?
00:20:14
>> Me everything is the same everywhere.
00:20:15
You can if you don't get it here you can
00:20:17
substitute for something over here.
00:20:19
That's a myth that economists actually
00:20:21
unfortunately believe. They basically
00:20:23
could persuade people to think that
00:20:24
everything is homogeneous. In fact oil
00:20:26
from Venezuela is almost like tar. oil
00:20:29
from here is flows like water
00:20:31
comparatively. You need different
00:20:33
processing systems to to extract that
00:20:35
oil than you need over here. Uh if we
00:20:38
lose this, we can't replace it with
00:20:39
something from over here. So once that
00:20:42
goes then the production system of the
00:20:44
planet is damaged. Uh this has been the
00:20:47
shocking thing for me as a citizen has
00:20:51
been the fact that a war with one
00:20:53
country could decapitate what 20 to 30%
00:20:57
>> of global production
00:20:58
>> global production of oil.
00:21:00
>> Yeah. And food.
00:21:01
>> That's a vulnerability if I've ever
00:21:02
heard one.
00:21:03
>> I know. And this is like one reason I'm
00:21:05
a critic of mainstream economics is they
00:21:07
trivialize all this stuff. They don't
00:21:09
teach their students how critical this
00:21:11
is. So most people are like you, even
00:21:13
people who've done a PhD in economics,
00:21:15
even worse in that sense than other
00:21:17
people, they don't understand how
00:21:19
critical and how fragile our production
00:21:21
systems are. So people can talk about a
00:21:23
war in Iraq and think, "Oh, that's a war
00:21:24
in Iran and that's going to cut off our
00:21:26
oil supply." No, it's going to cut off
00:21:28
your food supply.
00:21:29
>> And for the average person listening
00:21:30
now, what will they start to experience
00:21:32
if this war doesn't immediately end? 2
00:21:36
or 3 months India is going to run out of
00:21:38
fertilizer and so there'll be a famine
00:21:41
in India. Food production on the planet
00:21:43
could fall 10 25%. And therefore the
00:21:47
there simply won't be enough food for
00:21:49
everyone on the planet and then it's a
00:21:51
question of who's going to starve. Now
00:21:53
you'd think the wealthy countries are
00:21:55
going to be safe there. Look for
00:21:56
Australia, my old home country has about
00:21:59
30 days oil supply. When it runs out it
00:22:02
can't get food from the farm to the city
00:22:04
anymore. So Australia is incredibly
00:22:07
vulnerable. We're all far more
00:22:09
vulnerable than we realize and this war
00:22:11
is threatening everybody on the planet.
00:22:13
>> I got in an Uber yesterday and I was
00:22:14
with a a wonderful guy who was actually
00:22:17
weirdly I sat to the Uber at 2 a.m. and
00:22:19
I looked up on the screen and he was
00:22:20
listening to the D of Sierra and then he
00:22:22
clocked he clocked me in the back of the
00:22:23
car. We had a great chat and he was
00:22:24
saying to me, listen this isn't actually
00:22:26
my main job. It's my third job. I do
00:22:28
this because of the cost of living and
00:22:30
it really stayed with me.
00:22:32
>> He's doing three jobs which I love.
00:22:33
Yeah. three jobs and he picked me up at
00:22:35
2:00 a.m. He's got a family
00:22:37
>> and he's working his butt off to keep
00:22:39
the family alive.
00:22:40
>> Yes. And you know, I'm going to say
00:22:42
something which I probably um I don't
00:22:44
say a lot which which came to mind which
00:22:47
is um in the position I'm in now. I
00:22:50
think it it it was a real reminder of my
00:22:52
own personal privilege that I think is
00:22:54
really important for someone like me
00:22:55
that doesn't has an interview show
00:22:57
because you've got to be like
00:22:59
intellectually honest with yourself or
00:23:00
just like honest with yourself generally
00:23:01
that like as a as someone in my position
00:23:04
who has been fortunate enough to be able
00:23:05
to make significant money. I can
00:23:07
understand from having that conversation
00:23:10
how
00:23:13
detached
00:23:14
>> you are
00:23:15
>> I am
00:23:15
>> from the world around you.
00:23:16
>> Yes.
00:23:18
You're you're a very unique soul because
00:23:21
you I know like read a bit of your
00:23:22
history of course and you've had that
00:23:24
terrible period where you were you know
00:23:25
unemployed and what the hell do I do
00:23:27
>> shoplifting food and stuff and
00:23:28
>> you were ambitious but you okay if you
00:23:31
don't experience poverty you don't know
00:23:32
what it's like
00:23:34
>> yeah but even if you have
00:23:35
>> you can forget it
00:23:36
>> you can forget it
00:23:37
>> but you haven't yet
00:23:38
>> well this is why it's so important for
00:23:39
me to have those conversations because
00:23:41
him saying I'm working three jobs and
00:23:43
this is and picking me up at 2 a.m. in
00:23:44
his Uber and him telling me he's doing
00:23:47
that because of cost of living because
00:23:48
he needs to pay the bills immediately
00:23:50
made me think of ahead of this
00:23:51
conversation today like oh my god if the
00:23:54
prices go up 20% for people
00:23:56
>> he's out he's he can't work 24 hours a
00:23:58
day
00:23:58
>> can't work another he can't work more
00:23:59
hours in the day and it was just one of
00:24:00
those moments where you go hell
00:24:01
Steve like man you need to stay close to
00:24:04
the plight of uh of people that are
00:24:07
>> on the bread line and so many people are
00:24:09
these days in advanced countries not
00:24:11
just third world countries but certainly
00:24:14
like in America and the UK there are
00:24:16
huge numbers of people who are basically
00:24:18
living from hand to mouth at the current
00:24:21
system. So if we have a breakdown they
00:24:23
can't afford it and in that situation
00:24:26
you can no longer use money as your way
00:24:29
of deciding whether you can eat food or
00:24:31
not.
00:24:31
>> I wonder if politicians know this cuz
00:24:33
part of the reason I say this is because
00:24:34
you know Trump is a very wealthy man
00:24:36
multi-billionaire reportedly
00:24:38
>> and if the prices go up 20% at the pump
00:24:41
>> he makes profit. I mean he actually when
00:24:43
he said he said he said in favor of the
00:24:44
rising oil price we'll make a lot of
00:24:46
money out of it. His immediate
00:24:48
association rising price of something
00:24:50
that I'm indirectly selling that's good.
00:24:52
He doesn't say what about people buying
00:24:54
it. The people who buy it can no longer
00:24:56
afford it.
00:24:57
>> You've got um some food there on the
00:24:59
table which shows how these conflicts
00:25:04
and the pressure they put on some of
00:25:06
these scarce resources can impact our
00:25:08
ability to go and buy food. I think
00:25:09
you've got two bowls of potatoes.
00:25:12
>> Well, let's actually make it fairer
00:25:14
right now. Let's get the actual
00:25:15
distribution correct initially. So, you
00:25:18
are talking about someone who in your
00:25:21
situation, you've got that
00:25:24
local Uber's got this, and now you're
00:25:26
taking away the oil price. That's going
00:25:28
to make Trump better off, but he's down
00:25:30
to the stage where, you know, he's not
00:25:32
too far from that happening. And that's
00:25:35
what we've pushed ourselves into with
00:25:36
this war.
00:25:38
Do do wars typically make inequality
00:25:42
worse?
00:25:44
>> Very good question. I think wars are
00:25:47
created when inequality is bad. If you
00:25:50
go back to the Great Depression and see
00:25:51
what caused World War II, it was largely
00:25:54
the collapse of the German economy. Uh
00:25:57
when they repaid their debt, their
00:25:59
private debt to America or government
00:26:01
private government debt to America that
00:26:03
led to the rise of Hitler. Everybody
00:26:05
thinks Hitler rose because of the VHimar
00:26:06
inflation. That's what people normally
00:26:08
think. In fact, the when when Hitler
00:26:11
came to power in Germany, the rate of
00:26:13
inflation was minus 10%. It was
00:26:16
deflation. Prices were falling.
00:26:18
Unemployment rose from very low to 25%
00:26:21
of the population. In that situation,
00:26:23
people supported Hitler. He revived the
00:26:26
economy. I'm happy to talk about how he
00:26:28
did that later. But inequality leads to
00:26:31
people being willing to elect demagogues
00:26:34
to say we can save you. And then you get
00:26:36
war coming out of it. What happened
00:26:38
after the World War II is
00:26:41
politicians realized that people had
00:26:43
been through the Great Depression, which
00:26:44
was horrific, and they'd been through
00:26:46
World War II, which was horrific. And in
00:26:48
that period, people in America were
00:26:51
talking about either a fascist world or
00:26:54
a communist world. So the Americans
00:26:56
realized they had to improve the living
00:26:58
standards of the average American
00:27:00
substantially to get away from that. And
00:27:02
if you look at, you know, in 1950s
00:27:04
and60s, that's what is called the golden
00:27:07
age of capitalism because at that stage,
00:27:09
you could be a single male supporting a
00:27:12
wife and four kids and have a
00:27:15
comfortable lifestyle at the time.
00:27:18
That was where we started from. So the
00:27:19
the war itself led to a focus upon
00:27:22
equality, a focus upon fairness and
00:27:24
getting as much as you can to the
00:27:26
poorest in society. And then we've
00:27:29
forgotten that over the last 80 years.
00:27:31
And we've now got back to massive
00:27:33
inequality once more. So I think
00:27:35
inequality causes wars. Wars in the
00:27:37
aftermath make people focus on equality
00:27:41
not to allow that horror to happen once
00:27:42
more. And then we forget and do the
00:27:44
whole damn thing again.
00:27:45
>> One of the um surprising things I
00:27:48
learned the other day was that the
00:27:50
country that is estimated to have the
00:27:52
biggest reserve of oil
00:27:55
is Venezuela.
00:27:56
>> Yep. The third country on this list that
00:27:59
is estimated to have the biggest reserve
00:28:00
of oil is Iran.
00:28:03
>> Yeah. Yeah.
00:28:05
>> Now, it doesn't take a genius. Funny
00:28:06
enough,
00:28:07
>> of two countries have added. Yeah. The
00:28:09
second country being America.
00:28:11
>> Well, it says Saudi Arabia.
00:28:12
>> Saudi Arabia. Well, that's already an
00:28:14
American vessel. Yeah.
00:28:15
>> Yeah. That's already basically they're
00:28:16
basically partners with America already.
00:28:18
>> And funnily enough, the fourth one is
00:28:19
Canada. And if you if you're listening a
00:28:22
lot to Trump's rhetoric, he said he was
00:28:23
going to take Canada and make it the
00:28:25
51st state or something.
00:28:27
it doesn't feel
00:28:29
that the countries that the US are
00:28:31
invading their leaders are the country
00:28:33
that have the biggest supplies. And
00:28:35
Trump has already said, you know,
00:28:36
immediately he said after taking out
00:28:39
Maduro in Venezuela,
00:28:41
>> pulling him out of his bed with his wife
00:28:42
and flying him back to the US,
00:28:44
>> he already said that the oil's on the
00:28:45
way back to America.
00:28:47
>> Yeah. One might assume that much of the
00:28:49
motivation here with Iran is when they
00:28:52
were in negotiations with them, maybe
00:28:55
they weren't playing boy ball with the
00:28:56
oil. Maybe they were threatening
00:28:58
something with the oil and maybe it's
00:29:00
such an economic waste.
00:29:02
>> Well, maybe most of Trump's friends, if
00:29:04
he has them, are oil executives and they
00:29:07
can see the benefit for them in
00:29:08
controlling global oil and the one part
00:29:10
they can't control is Iran.
00:29:11
>> But I mean, it would it's backfired
00:29:13
pretty horrifically. I think one of the
00:29:14
great sayings in humanity is it's looked
00:29:16
like a good idea at the time, then you
00:29:19
do it and you realize you underestimated
00:29:21
your opponent. You have you don't
00:29:23
realize how difficult it is. Like you
00:29:25
mentioned, you know, talking about how
00:29:27
being wealthy can make you dissociate
00:29:29
from the problems that ordinary people
00:29:31
have. It can also make you dissociate
00:29:33
from reality in general. You don't
00:29:35
realize how difficult it is to something
00:29:37
do something you want to have done. So
00:29:39
all these oil executives and people who
00:29:41
Trump socializes with could have
00:29:43
thought, take out Iran, America
00:29:45
dominates the global oil thing. We're
00:29:47
all going to be rich. Okay? But they
00:29:49
don't realize that Iran's been aware of
00:29:51
this possibility for 40 years. And
00:29:53
they're prepared. They're far better
00:29:55
prepared than the Americans and the
00:29:56
Israelis thought.
00:29:58
>> So you've got five scenarios laid out on
00:30:00
these cards in front of you here that
00:30:02
you think could happen next. I'm going
00:30:04
to ask you to explain to me what the
00:30:05
five scenarios are and then tell me
00:30:07
which one you think is most likely to
00:30:09
occur.
00:30:10
>> So, scenario one, which is the one that
00:30:12
I think Trump is I think Israel wants
00:30:15
this one, Iran has destroyed. Okay, if
00:30:18
that happens, we're all gone because to
00:30:20
destroy Iran, you're going to have to
00:30:21
use nuclear weapons. Okay, you can't
00:30:24
destroy it without obliterating it as
00:30:27
nuclear weapons do. And that's the
00:30:29
scariest. I don't think it's going to
00:30:30
happen. My main hope here is that Iran
00:30:32
realizes that possibility and they've
00:30:36
got a way to neutralize
00:30:39
not America's nuclear weapons, but
00:30:40
Israel's.
00:30:41
>> You think it's a possibility?
00:30:42
>> It's a possibility and it's what scares
00:30:43
the out of me because if this
00:30:45
happens, then we're all dead. Obviously,
00:30:48
a nuclear bomb doesn't just blow up an
00:30:50
individual target. It everything within
00:30:52
reach gets exploded into the atmosphere.
00:30:54
That's what led people to realize that
00:30:56
you couldn't have a nuclear war back in
00:30:58
the days when we had mutually assured
00:31:00
destruction as the as the policy. If you
00:31:03
attack a country, then you will also
00:31:05
die.
00:31:05
>> But can't they use narrow nuclear
00:31:07
weapons? Is that not a thing?
00:31:08
>> Well, um
00:31:10
>> smaller nuclear weapons.
00:31:12
>> Well, again, if the country is smaller,
00:31:13
you're talking about destroying Europe.
00:31:16
The weapons you'd need to make sure you
00:31:18
got every last potential element of Iran
00:31:21
neutralized. You're talking about
00:31:22
bombing something which is, you know,
00:31:25
virtually the size of Western Europe.
00:31:27
The amount of weapons you got to drop to
00:31:28
do that
00:31:30
and you've got to if you if you don't
00:31:32
get it right,
00:31:34
then they're going to come at you with
00:31:35
what they've got left.
00:31:36
>> The world has dropped nuclear weapons
00:31:37
before and people survive. Other
00:31:39
neighboring countries survived
00:31:41
>> only twice and only small weapons. The
00:31:43
weapons we're talking about in Hiroshima
00:31:46
and Nagasaki, they're about equivalent
00:31:48
to 20,000 tons of TNT. We're now talking
00:31:52
weapons to 20 million tons of TNT, the
00:31:55
biggest nuclear weapons. And if you
00:31:57
wanted to hit a country the size of Iran
00:32:00
and know you've neutralized it, so you
00:32:01
destroy the whole thing, you're talking
00:32:04
hundreds of those weapons.
00:32:05
>> If you had to give a percentage
00:32:07
probability of that outcome occurring,
00:32:10
would it be less than 1%?
00:32:13
If we didn't have a madman in
00:32:15
Washington, yes, be less than 1%. Um, if
00:32:19
we didn't have madman in Israel, less
00:32:21
than 1%, I think probably 5%.
00:32:23
>> 5% probability that
00:32:25
>> that's a possibility. I mean, again, you
00:32:27
know, this is trying to make sense of
00:32:28
the senseless.
00:32:29
>> Okay.
00:32:30
>> But I'd put it about less than 10% but
00:32:32
still scary as a possibility.
00:32:35
>> If we end up there, we're all gone.
00:32:38
I mean, you know, I know very little
00:32:40
about all these things, so that's the
00:32:41
disclaimer. Um, I'd say that I don't
00:32:46
think Israel would intentionally wipe
00:32:49
out the rest of the world or cause a
00:32:51
nuclear winter because that would
00:32:52
obviously impact them as well. But I I I
00:32:55
am quite scared of president's setting.
00:32:57
And what I mean by that is if we
00:32:58
establish it being okay to drop nuclear
00:33:01
weapons on people you don't like, the
00:33:03
sort of domino effect of that for people
00:33:05
in Ukraine and other parts of the world
00:33:07
where there's conflict might then lead
00:33:09
to,
00:33:10
>> you know, mutually assured destruction.
00:33:12
>> Yeah. It's the it's the last possibility
00:33:14
you want to have happen. The fact that
00:33:15
it's even possible to contemplate it is
00:33:18
a terrifying prospect.
00:33:20
>> Let us hope.
00:33:21
>> Yeah. So scenario two
00:33:24
is Iran destroys the Gulf power
00:33:25
infrastructure. I think that's highly
00:33:27
likely.
00:33:28
>> Iran destroys Gulf power infrastructure.
00:33:30
What does that mean?
00:33:31
>> What it means is that Iran all the Gulf
00:33:34
states have got their own power systems
00:33:36
mainly based on burning oil for obvious
00:33:38
reasons. Uh if you take out their power
00:33:40
structure systems then those countries
00:33:43
become uninhabitable.
00:33:44
>> Is that what's happening already? Cuz I
00:33:46
know Iran have attacked a few sort of
00:33:47
power facilities in the region. There
00:33:48
have been a couple of well there was one
00:33:50
attack on a Saudi Arabian power systems
00:33:53
and that took out two of the 14 units
00:33:55
that are critical for creating liqufied
00:33:57
natural gas and apparently it'll take 5
00:34:00
years to rebuild them and there are only
00:34:02
five companies on the planet that can
00:34:04
actually do that rebuilding. One quarter
00:34:06
of the world's liquid natural gas comes
00:34:08
through the straight of Hamos. One tenth
00:34:10
of that has been destroyed. It's like 2
00:34:13
and a half% of the world's energy supply
00:34:15
is gone for the next 5 years until those
00:34:18
are rebuilt. If Iran destroys the Gulf
00:34:20
power infrastructure, then Saudi Arabia,
00:34:22
Qatar, uh Dubai, they all become
00:34:25
uninhabitable.
00:34:26
>> And we're seeing that happen in parts. I
00:34:28
mean, it sounds like this these attacks
00:34:30
have slowed down a little bit, but it
00:34:32
was interesting that Iran's strategy was
00:34:33
to attack their neighboring sort of
00:34:35
partners and specifically targeting a
00:34:37
lot of their energy infrastructure. Is
00:34:38
that in part to apply pressure?
00:34:41
>> Yeah. If I attack Dubai, the leaders of
00:34:43
Dubai are going to call Trump and say,
00:34:44
"Listen, cut this out."
00:34:45
>> Oh, yeah. I mean, the pressure coming
00:34:46
back from the Arabian states on America,
00:34:49
I imagine, is quite immense right now,
00:34:51
saying, "Don't do it." It's quite
00:34:52
possible Israel could do it, like attack
00:34:55
Iran and then Iran does a retribution
00:34:57
attack. Trump, if you would have seen
00:35:00
his tweet this morning, I think he's put
00:35:01
it off to April the 6th before he says
00:35:03
he starts attacking power
00:35:04
infrastructure. if he attacks power
00:35:06
infrastructure in Iran. Iran has said we
00:35:08
will attack power infrastructure in the
00:35:10
Gulf States. So we've got till you know
00:35:13
what 8 days. I think he's bluffing. I
00:35:16
hope he's bluffing. But if he does do
00:35:18
the attack then Iran will respond by
00:35:20
destroying either an equivalent
00:35:22
component of the Gulf States or the
00:35:25
whole infrastructure.
00:35:27
>> I don't think people quite realize how
00:35:29
costly it is for regions like Dubai when
00:35:33
Iran attack them. I was looking at some
00:35:34
of the data.
00:35:35
>> Yeah.
00:35:36
>> And according to current estimates and
00:35:38
historical risk assessments by Dubai
00:35:40
officials,
00:35:41
>> they lose a million per minute, which is
00:35:45
60 million per hour or 1.4 billion a day
00:35:50
when there's an unplanned emergency
00:35:52
shutdown just of their airport.
00:35:54
>> Their airports, let alone their power
00:35:56
systems. Yeah.
00:35:57
>> As we probably saw on the news, Iran had
00:35:59
flown it seemed like a couple of drones
00:36:01
into Dubai's airport, which meant that
00:36:02
it had to shut down. Yeah,
00:36:03
>> they're losing a billion a day because
00:36:06
that airport is closed. I think it's the
00:36:07
biggest airport in the world.
00:36:09
>> It is economic pressure
00:36:13
which will then trickle down to Trump
00:36:14
and sort of force his hand. So, they've
00:36:16
got a clear incentive to cause chaos.
00:36:18
>> Yeah.
00:36:19
>> And that partly what Iran is saying.
00:36:22
It's it's like a game of bluff. You
00:36:24
don't want to do this bluff. If that
00:36:25
bluff happens then the Saudi Arabian
00:36:28
peninsula becomes uninhabitable
00:36:30
and therefore all the I mean that if if
00:36:33
people have are forced out of there and
00:36:34
most of the residents in those countries
00:36:36
are not Saudis. They're third world
00:36:39
workers from India and Pakistan and the
00:36:41
Philippines and so on. They're being
00:36:43
paid lousy wages to to work on all these
00:36:45
systems. If they leave because the power
00:36:48
is not there to support them anymore.
00:36:49
they try to leave then we lose the
00:36:52
entire energy contribution that that
00:36:54
region makes to the global economy
00:36:57
>> and and the figure screwed
00:36:58
>> and that figure I cited includes not
00:37:00
just lost airport revenue but then the
00:37:01
immediate impact on airlines cargo
00:37:03
logistics and the missed opportunity
00:37:04
cost of thousands of highv value
00:37:06
business travelers attending the region
00:37:07
that Dubai's GDP is roughly 30%
00:37:10
dependent on the aviation and tourism
00:37:12
sectors so when the airport closes it
00:37:14
impacts tourism hospitality real estate
00:37:16
investing global supply chains and
00:37:17
everything so it's Um, it's quite
00:37:20
remarkable specifically with Dubai
00:37:22
>> because Dubai I think Dubai is a lovely
00:37:24
place. I've been multiple times. I I I I
00:37:26
love going there.
00:37:28
>> But it felt really safe and so a lot of
00:37:30
people
00:37:30
>> It's not safe. Yeah.
00:37:31
>> It's not safe.
00:37:32
>> Yeah.
00:37:33
>> Yeah. A lot of people had chosen to
00:37:34
uproot their lives and move there and
00:37:36
you'd almost kind of forgotten you were
00:37:38
in the Middle East to some degree.
00:37:39
>> Yeah. Yeah.
00:37:40
>> But I think this is going to be a pretty
00:37:42
traumatic reminder for a lot of people
00:37:43
there
00:37:44
>> how fragile
00:37:45
>> how fragile
00:37:45
>> this area is and like that's the lesson
00:37:47
we're learning. It's the fragility of
00:37:49
the society we take for granted.
00:37:51
>> So that was scenario number two.
00:37:53
>> Okay. Scenario three. That's the one
00:37:55
that really scares me because that is
00:37:58
the Samson doctrine. You know the story
00:38:00
of Samson. Yeah. Okay. Samson is a
00:38:03
enormously strong individual who's
00:38:05
strong because of his hair. And then he
00:38:08
gets conned. This is an ancient story
00:38:10
from the Bible. And the woman who's
00:38:12
conned him shaves his hair. So he's
00:38:14
weakened. And then they put him in a
00:38:17
temple where he's standing between two
00:38:19
pillars and his hair is gone. He's bald.
00:38:21
He can't do a thing. They forget the
00:38:23
fact that his hair is starting to grow.
00:38:25
His hair gets to the stage where he's
00:38:27
now got his strength back. He pushes
00:38:29
those pillars and the whole thing
00:38:30
collapses and everybody dies. That's the
00:38:33
Samson doctrine. And that involves
00:38:35
Israel's nuclear weapons. If they
00:38:37
realize that they are going to lose this
00:38:39
war and it becomes existential for them
00:38:42
then one of the things they have claimed
00:38:44
that they do is unleash destruction on
00:38:47
the rest of the world like Samson
00:38:49
pushing the towers and the whole thing
00:38:51
comes collapsing down.
00:38:52
>> This is I mean going back to the
00:38:53
situation with Iran and Israel. One of
00:38:55
the things I was thinking a lot about
00:38:56
from some commentary that I'd seen is
00:38:59
Israel really have a motive to get rid
00:39:03
of Iran because Iran have repeatedly
00:39:05
threatened Israel. It's also because I
00:39:08
mean Israel is trying to get rid of the
00:39:09
Palestinians and in that sense Iran has
00:39:12
been probably the major bulkwood
00:39:15
supporting the Palestinians say let the
00:39:17
Palestinians survive. Let the
00:39:19
Palestinian people continue existing.
00:39:22
And the Israelis have been pushing and
00:39:25
pushing and pushing the Palestinians
00:39:27
out. You know, it's a hornets's nest.
00:39:28
We've provoked a hornets's nest. Iran is
00:39:31
responding right now, I think, in a very
00:39:32
judicious way. But if the Israelis
00:39:35
realize they're facing an existential
00:39:37
defeat, that scenario, it would again
00:39:40
mean uh civilization potentially gets
00:39:43
destroyed. And just looking at some of
00:39:44
the things that Iran have said about
00:39:46
Israel, historically, the Supreme Leader
00:39:48
of Iran stated in 2015 that Israel would
00:39:51
not see the next 25 years. Other
00:39:54
officials said things like, "The end is
00:39:56
near." Um,
00:39:58
>> and in March 2026, Iran's tone shifted
00:40:02
from ideological to purely retaliatory
00:40:06
with the speaker of the Iranian
00:40:07
Parliament, Muhammad, stating that Iran
00:40:11
has officially declared that it
00:40:12
considers all Israel energy, water, and
00:40:14
IT infrastructure legitimate targets for
00:40:17
irreversible destruction with zero
00:40:20
restraint.
00:40:21
If we think about this from a psychology
00:40:23
perspective, you've got two neighbors.
00:40:24
They're both either implying implicitly
00:40:26
or explicitly that they want to wipe the
00:40:28
other one out.
00:40:29
>> Yeah.
00:40:29
>> Trump is sort of this third party in in
00:40:31
the arrangement who's not in the region,
00:40:33
so he might be a little bit safer.
00:40:35
>> Those two parties that are against each
00:40:37
other, one of them has nuclear weapons
00:40:39
and the other appears to be trying to
00:40:42
make one. the neighbor that is Israel
00:40:45
presumably cannot let that happen
00:40:48
because if it gets to a point where they
00:40:49
both have nuclear weapons and they both
00:40:51
want to wipe each other out.
00:40:54
>> No, I I actually think that the old days
00:40:56
of mutually assured destruction were a
00:40:59
more stable time than what we're in now
00:41:01
because if you realize that if you
00:41:02
attack you also die, you don't attack.
00:41:05
>> But what if you think of death as being
00:41:07
a better thing than life?
00:41:10
You you have to have a society
00:41:12
continuing after you die. If you're
00:41:14
going to be a martyr, there has to be
00:41:15
people who are going to mourn your
00:41:17
death. If you believe being a martyr
00:41:18
means everybody else so so dies and you
00:41:20
don't do it.
00:41:21
>> So, do you think if Iran had nuclear
00:41:22
weapons, it would be a safer world?
00:41:24
>> I think it'd be safer because it would
00:41:26
tell the Israelis, stop attacking your
00:41:27
neighbors.
00:41:28
>> I sat with um a few nuclear experts and
00:41:32
one of the things that was shocking that
00:41:33
I learned is
00:41:35
>> if the United States wanted to launch a
00:41:37
nuclear weapon today,
00:41:38
>> Yeah. It is one person's decision.
00:41:40
>> I heard that. And that's what Trump can
00:41:42
actually just make that decision.
00:41:43
>> He can make the decision on his own. He
00:41:45
doesn't need to consult Congress or
00:41:46
anybody else. He has someone who walks
00:41:48
around with a briefcase that has the
00:41:49
nuclear codes in at any moment. They
00:41:52
call it Yeah. And when I think about the
00:41:53
same in this region, actually, you don't
00:41:55
need a whole state to decide that they
00:41:58
don't like their neighbor. All you need
00:41:59
is one supreme leader
00:42:01
>> or Netanyahu to say, "Do you know what?
00:42:04
I'm near the end of my life and these
00:42:06
people have really pissed me off." Yeah,
00:42:08
that's right. And that's I mean I
00:42:10
thought there was at least some control.
00:42:11
I saw I saw that segment with Annie
00:42:13
Jacobson. Yeah.
00:42:14
>> I thought there was at least some
00:42:15
control. He had to consult someone.
00:42:18
>> But if and or they had to have
00:42:19
circumstances were justified not
00:42:21
consulting someone.
00:42:22
>> If he's got that right, then we it comes
00:42:24
down to what's the behavior of the
00:42:26
person who carries the nuclear football.
00:42:28
Does he let Trump get hold of it? And
00:42:31
like there there was another incident
00:42:33
way way back I think in this 70s or 80s
00:42:36
that the Russian early warning system
00:42:39
reported that there was a nuclear attack
00:42:41
on the way to Russia and there was one
00:42:43
submarine commander or one element of a
00:42:46
submarine command system and they had to
00:42:48
have three people in the submarine who
00:42:49
agreed to to launch an attack and this
00:42:52
particular person refused.
00:42:55
If he'd agreed with the other
00:42:58
nuclear war at it,
00:43:04
even the Russian submarine had three
00:43:06
people who had to make that decision.
00:43:08
So, we didn't have a nuclear war. Now,
00:43:10
we've got one maniac in this White House
00:43:12
who could do it. I'll play Annie
00:43:14
Jacobson's clip now where she talks
00:43:16
about the idea of sole authority which I
00:43:19
think is an important thing for people
00:43:20
to understand because when we think
00:43:22
about who we're electing to lead our
00:43:24
nuclear capable countries
00:43:27
>> you have to think about who you want to
00:43:29
give sole authority to
00:43:31
>> the United States president has sole
00:43:34
presidential authority to launch a
00:43:35
nuclear war
00:43:36
>> what does that mean
00:43:38
>> it's exactly like it sounds what's so
00:43:40
interesting is a lot of this stuff this
00:43:41
nomenclature that gets thrown at
00:43:43
If you just break it down, it's sole
00:43:46
solo presidential. He's the pus
00:43:50
authority. He doesn't have to ask anyone
00:43:52
for permission. Not the SEC staff, not
00:43:55
the chairman of the joint chiefs of
00:43:57
staff, not the Congress. I love the
00:43:59
worried look on your face in this moment
00:44:01
because it is once you know that
00:44:06
you say well first you might Google is
00:44:08
it really true and you will get for
00:44:11
example on Reddit like that's not really
00:44:13
true you'll get like hundreds of
00:44:15
thousands of people you know coming in
00:44:18
with their opinions about how that's not
00:44:20
really true well it is really true it's
00:44:23
absolutely true and in fact during the
00:44:25
former President Trump administration
00:44:29
Congress became so sort of I want to say
00:44:32
motivated or alarmed by this issue
00:44:34
meaning they were being asked questions
00:44:36
by the powers that be. Is this actually
00:44:40
true that they released a report stating
00:44:43
specifically and I quote in the book yes
00:44:45
it is true as commanderin-chief
00:44:48
the president has this sole authority.
00:44:50
He doesn't need to ask anyone.
00:44:53
>> So what is scenario four in your
00:44:55
envelopes there? Iran disables Israel's
00:44:58
nukes. Nobody can know. But I do believe
00:45:00
that Iran has not developed nuclear
00:45:02
weapons.
00:45:03
>> So you're hoping Iran disables Israel's
00:45:05
nuclear weapons?
00:45:06
>> I am. I hope that happens because that
00:45:08
takes out the nuclear option. Okay. We
00:45:10
won't see nuclear war as a result of
00:45:12
this. If the only nuclear weapons that
00:45:13
we know exist in the Middle East are
00:45:15
destroyed.
00:45:16
>> But if Iran starts disabling Israel's
00:45:18
nukes and attacking Israel that
00:45:21
effectively, there's going to be an even
00:45:23
bigger problem. Well, not not if we're
00:45:25
talking conventional weapons. If it's
00:45:27
conventional weapons and ground trips,
00:45:29
then you don't end up with nuclear
00:45:31
winter and the death of everybody on the
00:45:33
planet.
00:45:33
>> Wait, so you're saying you hope Iran
00:45:35
invades Israel and takes out their
00:45:36
nuclear weapons?
00:45:37
>> No, that's necessarily invasion. It
00:45:38
could be the missiles they've got left.
00:45:40
Again, we don't know how capable their
00:45:42
missiles are. The level of planning that
00:45:44
Iran has done in this war, I I had no
00:45:46
idea of of the fact they had those 31
00:45:49
regions, for example, until the war
00:45:50
began. My special is economics, not
00:45:52
global military politics. But once I
00:45:56
learned that, I thought they have really
00:45:57
thought this through. They have wargamed
00:46:00
what happens if they get attacked by
00:46:02
America. And they've warmed it
00:46:04
comprehensively. Now, I hope they've
00:46:07
also wargamed if we start defeating
00:46:10
Israel and Israel realizes they're going
00:46:13
to be wiped out, then the possibility
00:46:15
for the Samson doctrine comes in. We
00:46:17
have to disable that before it happens.
00:46:19
How could they possib They They don't
00:46:20
have a functioning military left in any
00:46:23
sort of typical sense. They don't have
00:46:26
ships left. They don't have planes left.
00:46:27
>> They don't have ships. They don't have
00:46:28
planes. But they have got missiles. And
00:46:30
we don't know how many missiles they've
00:46:32
got. We don't know where the missiles
00:46:33
are. Certainly the Americans would have
00:46:35
some intelligence. I think the word's
00:46:36
got to be used with inverted commas
00:46:38
these days, but some intelligence over
00:46:40
where they are located in Iran. But if
00:46:42
you listen to the Iranians talking about
00:46:44
it, they say they've got hundreds of
00:46:46
these facilities buried hundreds of
00:46:49
meters below the ground. If the with the
00:46:52
weapons they've developed, the the um
00:46:54
advanced rocketry they've developed,
00:46:56
they can evade RIL's Iron Dome, maybe
00:47:00
they can also get into and destroy
00:47:02
Israel's launch capabilities. And if
00:47:05
that happens, I think that's that would
00:47:06
be the best possible outcome because we
00:47:09
have a a rogue state in the Middle East
00:47:12
which has nuclear weapons which will
00:47:14
neither admit that it has or won't sign
00:47:16
it. They're not part of the nuclear
00:47:18
nonpol proliferation treaty. They won't
00:47:20
sign that treaty. We should never have
00:47:22
allowed that to happen. And if Iran gets
00:47:25
rid of them, I think it's the world's a
00:47:26
safer place.
00:47:26
>> Israel are just going to make more
00:47:28
nuclear weapons.
00:47:29
>> They have the resources. Uh, you need a
00:47:32
hell of a lot of technology and a hell
00:47:33
of a lot of intelligent people to do
00:47:35
that. You've already lost the war to
00:47:36
>> How could Israel lose the war?
00:47:39
>> You've got 90 a population of 90 million
00:47:41
in Iran and a population of less than 10
00:47:44
million in Israel.
00:47:45
>> But they've got it's a sort of
00:47:46
technological
00:47:48
gulf.
00:47:49
>> It's not as big as we thought it was.
00:47:51
We're only realizing now the level of
00:47:52
technology that Iran has. I mean the
00:47:55
things which Iran are doing in this war
00:47:56
so far have surprised everybody who's
00:47:59
hasn't got the background of
00:48:00
intelligence to tell them what's going
00:48:03
on uh it's an educated sophisticated
00:48:06
culture far more so than the caricature
00:48:08
we've got from the west has been about
00:48:10
it in the past so they
00:48:12
>> they don't have near nearly the same
00:48:13
level of resources and technology and uh
00:48:19
and I would say maybe sort of
00:48:20
sophisticated yeah advanced systems from
00:48:23
a war perspective that Israel do.
00:48:27
>> We think we don't know. We're assuming
00:48:30
>> even the intelligence services, even
00:48:31
their like their planes and their
00:48:33
missiles and their defense systems are
00:48:35
like profoundly more advanced than
00:48:36
Iran's.
00:48:38
>> If that was the case, we wouldn't be
00:48:39
having this conversation. It's 3 weeks
00:48:41
after the war began or 4 weeks. You
00:48:44
know, the original belief that Trump has
00:48:46
to be over in one day. That's proved
00:48:48
false.
00:48:49
>> I think that's in part because of what
00:48:50
you said because they've prepared for
00:48:52
decapitation. If I was the supreme
00:48:54
leader of Iran, yeah, that's the sort of
00:48:56
approach I would have taken, which is
00:48:58
you take me out and actually you've got
00:49:00
a bigger problem because now you've got
00:49:01
to negotiate with 41 or 31 different
00:49:04
sort of submillitaries and that's an
00:49:06
impossible task.
00:49:07
>> Yeah. Yeah. And that's the Iranians were
00:49:09
aware of that and they've got a, you
00:49:11
know, a huge army. They've got they can
00:49:13
conscript far more people than Israel
00:49:15
has. Um it's to me if it gets down to an
00:49:18
conventional military then it's possible
00:49:21
that you know Israel could lose that as
00:49:23
well.
00:49:23
>> On March 21 Trump threatened to
00:49:26
obliterate Iran's power plants if they
00:49:28
did not fully reopen the straight of
00:49:29
Hormos within 48 hours.
00:49:32
>> He then came out and said that he was
00:49:34
pausing that because Iran were
00:49:36
negotiating
00:49:37
>> um and he says he he thinks he's
00:49:39
negotiating with the right person. As of
00:49:42
yesterday, Trump has announced a 10day
00:49:44
pause until April 6th on destroying
00:49:48
energy plants, claiming that indirect
00:49:50
talks are going very well and that Iran
00:49:52
is begging to make a deal according to
00:49:54
the Guardian. So, what's going on there
00:49:57
in your view?
00:49:58
>> I think he's gaming the markets. I
00:50:01
really think he's using it to cause the
00:50:03
OMI price to go up and down and gaming
00:50:05
at either side. and somebody in his
00:50:08
circle or people are making a fortune
00:50:10
playing that's the case.
00:50:12
>> Yeah, I do. I mean
00:50:13
>> because there's lots of ways to make
00:50:15
money that don't involve crashing the
00:50:18
global economy, losing the midterms.
00:50:20
>> Yeah, you'd think of that. You've got
00:50:21
you've got ethics, you've got empathy,
00:50:23
you've got morals. Trump has none of
00:50:25
those things.
00:50:26
>> Do you not think it's just it's just
00:50:27
again if we look at Trump's pattern of
00:50:29
behavior over time, even with the
00:50:30
tariffs?
00:50:31
>> Yeah. The same pattern of behavior
00:50:32
occurred there where he would come out
00:50:34
and say, "Every leader is calling me.
00:50:36
They can't stop calling me. They all
00:50:38
want to make a deal. I'm going to do a
00:50:39
tariff on you 10%. Wait, no, I'm not.
00:50:41
Pause. Call me."
00:50:42
>> Yeah.
00:50:43
>> It's the same pattern of behavior. It's
00:50:44
you you make a threat system. Yeah.
00:50:46
>> You then
00:50:48
>> blackmail the person to try and
00:50:49
negotiate with you. when they don't, you
00:50:51
hit them with the thing hard and
00:50:53
eventually in the end of the day, you
00:50:55
don't really do any of the stuff you
00:50:56
threaten to do
00:50:57
>> because you've sort of
00:50:59
>> manipulated a person into getting your
00:51:01
way. It's the same pattern of behavior.
00:51:03
We're going to smash you if you don't
00:51:04
call me.
00:51:05
>> Yeah,
00:51:06
>> they do or don't call. He announces to
00:51:07
the world that they called. They're
00:51:09
begging. Look, it says here, "They're
00:51:10
begging me for a deal. I'm going to give
00:51:12
them 10 more days."
00:51:14
>> To me, it sounds like he's trying to
00:51:15
build his golden bridge to get the
00:51:17
out of there. What he's imagining is
00:51:19
he's dealing with somebody like himself
00:51:20
in Iran. Okay? He's he's projecting what
00:51:24
how he would react to these things. He's
00:51:26
obviously projecting his own behavior
00:51:28
onto the system. And it's projection
00:51:30
rather than understanding. So if you
00:51:32
decapitate, you know, if you took out
00:51:34
Trump, the fear of being, you know,
00:51:36
assassinated, yes, well bargain, what do
00:51:38
you want me to do? He thinks that works
00:51:40
in Iran. It doesn't.
00:51:41
>> You can look at his behavior and sort of
00:51:43
understand what he wants. He wants to
00:51:44
win this war and he he want you know he
00:51:47
wants to win the war and that's and get
00:51:48
out of there because that's what he's
00:51:49
been saying. We've won. We won. We've
00:51:50
won every day. We've won. More missiles
00:51:52
go in. We've won. So that's clearly what
00:51:54
he wants to happen. The problem is
00:51:55
winning here doesn't seem like a
00:51:57
straightforward thing.
00:51:57
>> No, it's not going to happen.
00:51:58
>> No pun intended with a straight up. But
00:52:00
it really doesn't seem like a
00:52:01
straightforward thing.
00:52:02
>> So I it's my opinion now that they are a
00:52:05
little bit stuck because if you leave
00:52:07
now you lose.
00:52:08
>> Yeah.
00:52:09
>> Iran start firing at Israel. Israel
00:52:11
don't stop even though you tell them to.
00:52:13
Yeah,
00:52:13
>> they start firing at each other. The
00:52:15
whole thing blows up. Oil, they keep the
00:52:17
straight of Horos closed. Oil prices go
00:52:20
up. It looks terrible, terrible,
00:52:21
terrible for Trump. We might get he
00:52:23
might find himself in a Bush situation
00:52:25
where his legacy, and I think that's
00:52:26
such an important word, a man that can't
00:52:29
be elected for a third term. His legacy
00:52:32
is tarnished in the same way that Bush's
00:52:34
legacy was tarnished by going to war in
00:52:36
the Middle East. M
00:52:37
>> I think his greatest fear, Trump's
00:52:39
greatest fear, you think back through
00:52:41
all of these moments over the last
00:52:42
couple years where he talked about the
00:52:43
Nobel Prize,
00:52:44
>> I think he's trying to put himself on
00:52:45
the Mount Rushmore of presidents.
00:52:47
>> Yeah.
00:52:47
>> In history's mind.
00:52:49
>> And I think how this situation plays out
00:52:52
now, the sole thing he's thinking about
00:52:53
is his legacy. And right now, being
00:52:56
stuck in a war and contemplating putting
00:52:59
ground troops in is arguably the worst
00:53:01
thing for one's legacy. Americans dead.
00:53:03
>> Yeah. And lots of Americans dead. These
00:53:05
wars are like you think about Vietnam.
00:53:07
These wars are never really won.
00:53:08
>> No. Well, they did. America hasn't won a
00:53:10
war since World War II and even World
00:53:12
War II was won by the Russians more so
00:53:14
than the Americans. So, we have this
00:53:16
picture of America as being this, you
00:53:18
know, invincible military power. But it
00:53:20
lost in Vietnam. It lost in Iraq. It
00:53:23
lost in Afghanistan. America's failed in
00:53:25
all of these. This is another American
00:53:27
failure, but on a scale far beyond what
00:53:30
happened in Afghanistan and Vietnam.
00:53:32
>> Do you think he will send ground troops
00:53:33
in? Yes, I do. Uh, and like I've seen
00:53:36
people talking about where the troops
00:53:37
might land. And the only part of they
00:53:39
can land is is right towards this edge
00:53:41
here with Pakistan, where they might
00:53:43
land to between 2 and 10,000 troops. I'd
00:53:46
hate to be one of those troops because
00:53:47
it's a suicide mission. again with those
00:53:49
31 provinces, the separated um military
00:53:52
commands they've got, the weapons
00:53:54
they've got hidden underground, the
00:53:56
troops themselves who if if you know
00:53:58
that there are Americans landing and
00:54:00
you're Iranian and a soldier, you are
00:54:03
going to attack them like nobody's
00:54:05
business and not be afraid of your own
00:54:07
death because you do think if you get
00:54:09
martyed, it's the remaining people that
00:54:11
you're defending. There will be people
00:54:12
who recognize you as a martyr. It's it's
00:54:15
horrific. If you had to give a sort of
00:54:17
percentage probability of them putting
00:54:18
ground troops in,
00:54:19
>> I would say more than 50%. We're going
00:54:22
to find out in the next couple of weeks.
00:54:24
>> Much of the reason most people haven't
00:54:26
posted content or built their personal
00:54:27
brand is because it's hard and it's
00:54:30
timeconuming and we're all very very
00:54:31
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00:54:33
something before, there's so many
00:54:36
factors in your psychology that stop you
00:54:38
wanting to post. What people will think
00:54:40
of you, am I doing this right? Is the
00:54:41
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00:54:44
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>> What is the best case scenario? The
00:56:34
Americans have to realize they've lost.
00:56:36
They've not going to negotiate the terms
00:56:37
of reparation. And what Iran has
00:56:39
proposed, when you look at Iran's terms,
00:56:42
they're extremely reasonable. They're
00:56:43
saying America
00:56:45
leaves the whole Asian. America no
00:56:47
longer comes back in this region. No
00:56:49
military bases, no agreements. This
00:56:52
becomes Iranian protectorate. That
00:56:54
becomes an Arabian Empire or not Arabian
00:56:56
Iranian Empire because they're not
00:56:58
they're not Arabs. They're Persians. Uh
00:57:00
so this becomes like a Muslim part of
00:57:03
the world that's you can actually take
00:57:06
the whole region out to here it's all
00:57:08
Muslim and what's been happening and
00:57:10
this is part of the weird religious
00:57:11
elements here you've got the Sunni sect
00:57:13
and the Shiite sect which is a bit like
00:57:15
the Protestants versus the Catholics go
00:57:18
back 500 years and what we're seeing
00:57:20
here is like the 100red years war that
00:57:22
occurred in Europe back in the days when
00:57:25
it was Protestant birth as Catholic was
00:57:27
a serious thing. Um, so we're seeing a
00:57:29
religious war being fought here and the
00:57:32
the Sunni majority about 90% of Muslims
00:57:34
are Sunni. They have focused on their
00:57:36
rivalry with the Shiites. And so what
00:57:39
they've done is they've sided with this
00:57:40
mob to enable United States the states
00:57:44
to so they've sided with the Christians
00:57:46
to strengthen their own Muslim sect
00:57:49
which is the Sunni sect against the
00:57:51
Shiite sect which is Iran is
00:57:52
predominantly Shiite. Now what's
00:57:54
happening here is as soon as the war
00:57:56
started America
00:57:59
the reason the the Arabs agreed to bases
00:58:02
here military bases is they thought it
00:58:04
to protect them from Iran. As soon as
00:58:06
the war starts those spaces are
00:58:08
obliterated the Americans leave and they
00:58:10
realize that hasn't worked at all. So
00:58:12
the deal the Sunnis made to side with
00:58:14
the Christians has proved to be an
00:58:16
extremely bad deal. You're going to have
00:58:19
to have change in who rules these
00:58:21
countries to enable it to happen. But I
00:58:23
think the persuasive case coming out of
00:58:25
this within the Muslim areas is Muslims
00:58:28
stick together. Don't cooperate with the
00:58:30
Christians.
00:58:31
>> Don't cooperate with the United States.
00:58:32
>> I think that's what's going to happen.
00:58:34
>> You think that's going to happen?
00:58:35
>> I hope so because that at least gives us
00:58:37
something which is relatively stable.
00:58:38
This becomes a region that is Muslim.
00:58:41
>> When you say this, you mean the Middle
00:58:42
East?
00:58:42
>> I mean the whole Middle East, Saudi
00:58:43
Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan as well
00:58:46
because it's a Muslim country.
00:58:47
Afghanistan. This region becomes Muslim
00:58:51
dominated. Shiites and Sunnis start to I
00:58:53
mean the whole idea of of Catholics
00:58:56
fighting Protestants that's completely
00:58:58
dissipated. Um there's no level in in
00:59:01
the west anymore of large scale military
00:59:04
type animosity between Catholics and and
00:59:07
Protestants. That's what's happening
00:59:09
over here. The the conflicts those
00:59:12
religious conflicts within the Cath
00:59:13
within the Christians disappeared
00:59:15
largely speaking. They're still
00:59:17
happening within the Muslim religion.
00:59:20
This could persuade them that that's got
00:59:22
to end.
00:59:23
>> So, we've got one more scenario.
00:59:24
Scenario five.
00:59:25
>> Iran develops nuclear weapons. I'd
00:59:28
rather four happen than five.
00:59:29
>> Which of these five outcomes do you
00:59:31
think is most probable to happen?
00:59:35
>> I think the most likely outcome is Iran
00:59:38
disables Israel's nuclear weapons.
00:59:40
Because Iran has been so prepared for
00:59:42
this conflict in a way that America has
00:59:44
not, in a way that Israel was not. I
00:59:46
hope they're also prepared for the
00:59:48
eventuality of having to neutralize
00:59:50
Israel's nuclear weapons.
00:59:52
>> You think the highest probability is
00:59:53
Iran disabling Israel's nukes?
00:59:56
>> Yeah, I hope I'm right. I mean, if Iran
00:59:58
gets destroyed, then this leads not to
01:00:01
Iran developing nuclear weapons, but
01:00:03
every potential rival for America on the
01:00:06
planet developing nuclear weapons. We go
01:00:09
to a nuclear war dominated world. Do you
01:00:11
not think it's more likely that Trump is
01:00:14
going to find himself a golden bridge to
01:00:17
get out of this situation? He's going to
01:00:18
call Netanyahu in Israel and say, "Stand
01:00:21
down, please. I'm going to announce that
01:00:23
we've won this war. I'm going to
01:00:24
announce that we've done a deal. It's
01:00:26
all over."
01:00:28
>> Well, without doubt, whatever happens,
01:00:29
Trump is going to say he won. Okay,
01:00:32
that's again the narcissistic
01:00:33
personality disorder thing. He simply
01:00:36
couldn't bring himself to stand on a
01:00:38
stage and say, "I lost." I mean, think
01:00:40
about the biggest insult that Trump ever
01:00:42
made in his apprenticeship show. You're
01:00:44
a loser. Okay? Being a loser is the
01:00:46
absolute worst possible thing that
01:00:48
anybody can be in his mind. If he has to
01:00:50
say, "I'm a loser," then his life is
01:00:52
over in that sense. He's self his
01:00:55
selfimage is over. So, whatever deal
01:00:58
comes out, he's going to say he won. For
01:01:00
the for the average person that's
01:01:01
listening now when they hear all this
01:01:03
conflict going on on in the world from
01:01:05
an economic perspective, is there
01:01:07
anything they can be doing to protect
01:01:09
themselves against some of these
01:01:11
downstream consequences?
01:01:12
>> Well, I think one thing is people we
01:01:14
we've now got to the stage where you can
01:01:16
buy your own uh solar systems for your
01:01:19
house. You need something which means
01:01:21
you are not dependent upon oil anymore.
01:01:23
I I think we've trivialized the dangers
01:01:25
of climate change for the last half
01:01:27
century. We've done very little about it
01:01:29
to reverse it. This is telling people
01:01:31
that if you relied upon oil, you've got
01:01:34
a fragile existence. Even if it cost you
01:01:36
more to build solar, you've got to build
01:01:38
solar as your own alternative energy
01:01:40
system. Cuz without energy, there's no
01:01:42
civilization.
01:01:43
And that's what we're learning the hard
01:01:45
way from this conflict. So I think
01:01:47
individual responses is going to be get
01:01:50
some way to have your own power source
01:01:52
and for most people that means having a
01:01:54
solar. One man that has done a lot for
01:01:56
both solar and sustainable energy is
01:01:59
Elon Musk.
01:02:00
>> He has. He's also helped get bloody
01:02:02
Trump elected. So I think you've got to
01:02:04
score that against him as well. But
01:02:06
yeah, his work on solar then and and and
01:02:08
power and rocketry. I've absolutely
01:02:10
admired that and I see that as a
01:02:12
critical positive contribution. But
01:02:14
getting Trump elected, he played a major
01:02:16
role in that. He should learn from that
01:02:18
mistake and get the out of
01:02:19
politics. He has backed off politics
01:02:22
now, which is
01:02:22
>> I think he's realized how poisonous it
01:02:24
is. Yeah.
01:02:25
>> Yeah. It sounds like he's realized you
01:02:26
can't really change the beast. No,
01:02:28
>> he tried.
01:02:29
>> Yeah. He should stick with the era where
01:02:30
he's mature, which is what he does with
01:02:32
energy systems and what he does with
01:02:34
rocketry. He's really I mean, in terms
01:02:36
of legacy, uh, he's tainted his legacy
01:02:38
by getting involved in politics. Go back
01:02:40
to engineering. So you say that you
01:02:43
think people should invest in solar for
01:02:45
their homes to get their own energy
01:02:47
sources so they're a little bit
01:02:48
insulated from these sort of
01:02:49
macroeconomics. Is there anything else
01:02:51
they should be thinking about? You know,
01:02:52
the average person the cost of living
01:02:54
crisis. What what happens next? What
01:02:56
should they be doing now?
01:02:57
>> The thing that I'm most worried about
01:02:58
this is the impact upon food. I'm the
01:03:00
last person to talk about growing your
01:03:03
own food. I've never done it. I'm I've
01:03:06
got brown thumbs, not green ones. But I
01:03:09
think if you can have any way to produce
01:03:10
your own food, you've got a bit of
01:03:13
insulation against what's happening at
01:03:14
the global level. The lesson that comes
01:03:16
out of this is self-sufficiency.
01:03:19
If we don't have self-sufficiency, then
01:03:21
these sorts of global chaotic things can
01:03:23
destroy you completely with you having
01:03:25
no recompense. If you have some degree
01:03:27
of self-sufficiency, you can survive.
01:03:29
>> And how does one create
01:03:30
self-sufficiency? Growing your own food
01:03:32
is quite expensive and slow, isn't it?
01:03:33
>> Yeah, extremely.
01:03:34
>> So, how does one develop
01:03:36
self-sufficiency in this these sort of
01:03:37
economic climates? Is it saving money or
01:03:40
is it um
01:03:41
>> I think it's having your own physical
01:03:42
resources close to you that enable you.
01:03:45
Money doesn't matter if you can't buy
01:03:47
the product in the first instance. The
01:03:49
product doesn't exist anymore. So, one
01:03:52
thing that happened during World War II
01:03:53
is a large amount of food was grown in
01:03:55
the UK by people turning their gardens
01:03:57
into market gardens. I
01:03:59
>> I've heard you make a few predictions
01:04:01
about the future of the economic
01:04:03
markets. You know, you're famous for
01:04:04
predicting 2008 and the financial crash
01:04:07
that occurred then. I've heard you
01:04:08
saying that you think because of AI
01:04:10
there's going to be another financial
01:04:11
crash around the corner within one or
01:04:13
two years.
01:04:14
>> Yeah. What's happening with AI is a
01:04:16
classic economic boom and bust cycle
01:04:19
overlaid on the fact that AI can also
01:04:21
eliminate a huge amount of employment
01:04:24
which we've never seen that possibility
01:04:27
in the past on that scale. But a common
01:04:30
pattern in capitalism is that some new
01:04:33
technology will be developed like
01:04:34
railways for example. Some people see
01:04:37
the potential profitability of railways.
01:04:39
Everybody pours in creating railways.
01:04:42
You get too many railways built. The 90%
01:04:45
of the companies that create the
01:04:47
railways go bust. But then we all have
01:04:49
these rail systems that we benefit from
01:04:51
afterwards. So that's the classic uh
01:04:54
pattern of Joseph Schumpeda was the
01:04:56
person who best described that of that
01:04:58
Austrian economist from the early uh
01:05:00
early 20th century. So he said you'll
01:05:03
get the the banks will finance a new
01:05:04
investment area that investment produces
01:05:07
a new technology which causes a boom
01:05:09
while you're building the technology but
01:05:11
when the technology comes online it
01:05:13
undercuts existing businesses and causes
01:05:16
a slump. So they boom and slump cycle
01:05:18
and AI is a natural example of that and
01:05:21
what you get is massive overinvestment
01:05:23
in the first instance because everybody
01:05:25
who invests in AI has the ambition of
01:05:28
being the only AI provider on the
01:05:29
planet. Therefore you get too many
01:05:31
companies investing there's too much
01:05:32
money going into it. That's what causes
01:05:34
a boom. But then when the technology
01:05:36
comes online because it undercuts
01:05:38
existing technologies you have a slump.
01:05:41
And when you look at the investment
01:05:42
taking place at the moment, the big tech
01:05:44
companies, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft,
01:05:46
Alphabet, own Google, Oracle is on track
01:05:49
to spend 720 billion on AI
01:05:54
infrastructure in 2026 alone, which is
01:05:56
less than 20% of the revenue that
01:05:59
they're making. We are seeing a 5:1
01:06:02
ratio of money being spent versus money
01:06:04
coming in. Yeah.
01:06:05
>> Which is historically unsustainable.
01:06:07
>> Yeah. And I think that's true. There
01:06:08
there has to be a slump coming out of
01:06:10
this. And in in a sense, that's part of
01:06:12
the natural cyclical behavior of
01:06:15
capitalism because if you want to make a
01:06:16
profit, you've got to bring in
01:06:17
technology that undercuts everybody
01:06:19
you're currently rivals with. So that's
01:06:21
the railways are a classic example
01:06:23
there. You know, you had to get around
01:06:24
by carriage instead. You undermine the
01:06:27
carriage companies by bringing in the
01:06:28
railways. But the ultimate benefit,
01:06:30
society benefits because now you got the
01:06:32
railways for transportation. So that's
01:06:34
the same sort of thing that AI is doing
01:06:36
this time around. But companies 90% of
01:06:38
those companies are going to fail.
01:06:40
>> I mean this is kind of what we're seeing
01:06:41
already. So the failure rate of AI
01:06:42
specific startups has hit 90% in 2026.
01:06:45
>> Wow. That's luck.
01:06:46
>> Yeah, you you predicted that one
01:06:48
correctly. Significantly higher than the
01:06:49
70% average for general technology.
01:06:52
Roughly 95% of enterprise AI pilots fail
01:06:54
to move into into production when they
01:06:56
incur massive cost. The other thing I
01:06:58
think a lot about is um
01:07:00
>> a lot of startups now are raising a lot
01:07:02
of money at crazy crazy valuations. I
01:07:05
can think of one particular startup I
01:07:06
know they're making like a couple of
01:07:07
million dollars a year. They've raised
01:07:09
at a billion dollar valuation
01:07:11
>> and because they've got the word AI on
01:07:13
them. And the thing is
01:07:15
>> because everyone's so such in a frenzy
01:07:16
at the moment about AI, they're probably
01:07:18
going to raise at a 2 billion valuation
01:07:19
6 months from now.
01:07:20
>> When you think about what's going on
01:07:21
there, someone somewhere is putting
01:07:23
their money in
01:07:24
>> and they're going to lose it all.
01:07:25
>> And they're going to lose it all. And
01:07:26
when when everybody starts losing all
01:07:28
their money very very quickly, you see
01:07:29
this contraction.
01:07:30
>> Yeah. where everybody realizes that
01:07:31
their paper gains, the gains they
01:07:33
thought they had on paper because of
01:07:34
valuation went up have just evaporated.
01:07:37
And when you see that, you have to
01:07:38
quickly count your pennies.
01:07:40
>> Yeah.
01:07:40
>> And get frugal
01:07:41
>> and pull back in again.
01:07:42
>> Pull back in again. Lay people off and
01:07:44
so on and so forth. So I I actually do
01:07:47
personally believe that we're probably
01:07:48
within 24 months of a pretty severe
01:07:51
contraction. And that won't just impact
01:07:53
these tech oligarchs, it'll impact all
01:07:55
of us in different ways.
01:07:57
>> Yeah, it's a Burman bus cycle. I mean
01:07:59
the only thing which we've experienced
01:08:00
in our own lives which is similar would
01:08:02
be the telecommunications bubble and
01:08:04
then the internet bubble between 1990
01:08:06
and 2001 2002
01:08:09
um we don't get bubbles in the internet
01:08:11
anymore because that's now a stable
01:08:13
technology in that sense uh but it
01:08:15
wasn't a big one this is much bigger
01:08:17
>> what do we do as entrepreneurs as team
01:08:21
members and companies what do we do at
01:08:22
this moment if what you're saying is
01:08:24
correct that there will be a
01:08:26
>> a boom and bust
01:08:27
>> a boom and bust which which I think ab
01:08:29
every smart person that I've spoken to
01:08:30
agrees that there will be a bust soon.
01:08:32
>> Yeah.
01:08:33
>> Their timelines vary.
01:08:35
>> Yeah.
01:08:35
>> But what does one do right now in March,
01:08:39
April 2026 to prepare for this?
01:08:42
>> Well, you put money aside if you can.
01:08:43
You buy other assets you think are going
01:08:45
to survive the the Burman bus cycle.
01:08:47
>> Like what?
01:08:47
>> That's the trouble. I mean, gold's been
01:08:49
driven up. Gold's now been driven down.
01:08:51
Uh people are buying Bitcoin, but
01:08:52
Bitcoin is collapsing as well. uh in
01:08:55
some ways you you really you can't it's
01:08:58
like saying what do I do during an
01:08:59
earthquake to not fall over in terms of
01:09:01
insulating yourself I really can't see a
01:09:03
way of insulating yourself from the
01:09:05
downturn but I don't I'm not wor as
01:09:07
worried about that as long-term
01:09:08
consequences of AI because this is the
01:09:12
first technology which implies you can
01:09:14
actually virtually eliminate labor as
01:09:16
necessary for reducing output because
01:09:18
you can use AI rather than clarks you
01:09:21
can use I know this is a long way from
01:09:24
being feasible, but robots could replace
01:09:26
process workers and then suddenly
01:09:29
something which employs 70% of the
01:09:31
global population is no longer
01:09:33
necessary. And then what do you do in
01:09:36
that situation? What I've seen which I
01:09:38
respect coming out of the tech bros in
01:09:41
America is they're talking in terms of
01:09:43
universal basic income.
01:09:45
>> You think a universal basic income is a
01:09:46
good idea? I we should probably explain
01:09:48
what that is.
01:09:49
>> Yeah. Well, it's it's the state provides
01:09:52
everybody with enough money to stay
01:09:54
alive. That's the basic idea. Rather
01:09:56
than having to work for a living at the
01:09:58
minimum, you get paid an amount of money
01:10:01
that means you can buy the goods and
01:10:02
services that are necessary to stay
01:10:04
alive. You don't necessarily prosper,
01:10:07
but you get enough to survive. And so
01:10:09
that's the idea of UBI. Now, at the
01:10:11
moment, to survive, you got to have a
01:10:12
job. And like that guy you mentioned is
01:10:14
working at three three jobs right now.
01:10:16
if he got a UBI, he wouldn't have to
01:10:18
work at those three jobs. He might work
01:10:20
at one or he might actually consider his
01:10:22
own business possibilities in that
01:10:25
situation. So, I think universal basic
01:10:27
income is a necessity given what
01:10:30
robotics and AI can do to employment.
01:10:34
Every time I've tried to improve
01:10:35
something in my life, like my
01:10:36
businesses, my health, my relationships,
01:10:38
I've noticed that the biggest shifts
01:10:40
have come from being better informed.
01:10:42
And when it comes to our health, most of
01:10:43
us know very, very little. So when our
01:10:45
team was approached about partnering
01:10:47
with function health, it felt very much
01:10:49
aligned. Their team has developed a way
01:10:50
of giving you a full 360deree view of
01:10:53
your health, many of the things that are
01:10:54
going on in your body in the form of
01:10:56
different tests. You do one blood draw
01:10:58
and it gives you access to over 160 lab
01:11:01
results, hormones, heart health,
01:11:03
inflammation, stress, toxins, the whole
01:11:06
picture. I use it and so have many of my
01:11:08
team members.
01:11:08
>> You sign up and you schedule your test
01:11:10
and once you're done, you get a little
01:11:11
report like the one I have here. I can
01:11:13
see my in-range results, my out of range
01:11:15
results, and there's a little AI
01:11:17
function, too. So, if I have any
01:11:18
questions about my out of range results,
01:11:20
I can just go in there and ask it any
01:11:22
question I want. And these tests are
01:11:24
backed by doctors and thousands of hours
01:11:25
of research.
01:11:26
>> It's $365 for a yearly membership. Go to
01:11:29
functionhealth.com/doac
01:11:32
and use the code DOAC25
01:11:34
for $25 off your membership. This is
01:11:37
something that I've made for you. I
01:11:39
realized that the direio audience are
01:11:41
strivvers. Whether it's in business or
01:11:43
health, we all have big goals that we
01:11:45
want to accomplish. And one of the
01:11:46
things I've learned is that when you aim
01:11:48
at the big big big goal, it can feel
01:11:51
incredibly psychologically uncomfortable
01:11:54
because it's kind of like being stood at
01:11:55
the foot of Mount Everest and looking
01:11:57
upwards. The way to accomplish your
01:11:59
goals is by breaking them down into tiny
01:12:02
small steps. And we call this in our
01:12:04
team the 1%. And actually this
01:12:05
philosophy is highly responsible for
01:12:08
much of our success here. So what we've
01:12:10
done so that you at home can accomplish
01:12:12
any big goal that you have is we've made
01:12:14
these 1% diaries and we released these
01:12:17
last year and they all sold out. So I
01:12:20
asked my team over and over again to
01:12:21
bring the diaries back but also to
01:12:22
introduce some new colors and to make
01:12:24
some minor tweaks to the diary. So now
01:12:26
we have a better range for you. So, if
01:12:30
you have a big goal in mind and you need
01:12:32
a framework and a process and some
01:12:34
motivation, then I highly recommend you
01:12:36
get one of these diaries before they all
01:12:38
sell out once again. And you can get
01:12:40
yours at the diary.com.
01:12:42
And if you want the link, the link is in
01:12:44
the description below.
01:12:45
>> And you think up to 50% of working-class
01:12:48
jobs could be wiped out because of AI
01:12:50
and robotics.
01:12:51
>> Yeah.
01:12:51
>> I mean, that's um that's been a
01:12:53
prediction from the leaders of some of
01:12:54
the biggest companies in AI. I heard the
01:12:56
the leader of Anthropic uh recently say
01:12:58
the same thing. thinks 50% of jobs could
01:13:00
be wiped out. I think the shocking thing
01:13:02
that we've talked a lot about in the
01:13:03
show is just,
01:13:04
>> you know, there's been other sort of
01:13:05
economic or industrial revolutions in
01:13:07
the past that have caused for job
01:13:09
displacement.
01:13:10
>> Yeah.
01:13:10
>> But none, I would argue at this speed.
01:13:13
>> No. And none that can replace virtually
01:13:14
everything. I see one of there's a
01:13:16
there's a classic story I read back when
01:13:18
I was uh talking about the global
01:13:20
financial crisis uh came out of the New
01:13:22
York Times article where they went to
01:13:25
interview workers in an air conditioning
01:13:27
factory. And there was one woman they
01:13:29
found there whose job it was to place a
01:13:31
thermouple inside the air conditioning
01:13:34
units as they went past. So there's
01:13:36
3,000 of these going past her a day.
01:13:38
She's just placing one of these
01:13:40
thermouples where it needs to go inside
01:13:41
the circuitry of the air conditioning
01:13:44
unit. And she said, "You don't have to
01:13:46
love your job as long as it pays you
01:13:48
money." It was totally boring job.
01:13:50
That's all she's doing. The thing is the
01:13:52
reason she got that job was she couldn't
01:13:53
make a machine to replace her because
01:13:55
the air conditioning units don't
01:13:57
necessarily end up precisely at the same
01:13:59
point. To make a machine that would do
01:14:01
that is really difficult. Now if you
01:14:03
train a robot on it, the robot
01:14:05
perception can ultimately get to the
01:14:07
point where the robot can place that
01:14:09
piece inside there. That particular
01:14:10
unskilled job disappears. So people who
01:14:13
work in jobs like that no longer have a
01:14:15
possibility of getting a job. I think
01:14:17
even, you know, Anthropic released a
01:14:18
report. Anthropic are the makers of
01:14:20
Claude. They released a report saying
01:14:22
that entry- level positions, they're
01:14:24
seeing a 13% decline already in people
01:14:27
getting those entry- level jobs. And
01:14:28
actually, as an employer, someone that
01:14:30
spends literally all last night, I was
01:14:31
looking through our inbox, our
01:14:32
recruitment inboxes at candidates and
01:14:34
talent.
01:14:35
>> I have noticed myself changing. I've
01:14:37
noticed that um
01:14:40
people that I would have given roles to
01:14:43
maybe six months ago,
01:14:44
>> yeah,
01:14:45
>> I now have to think long and hard about
01:14:47
whether there's going to be technology
01:14:49
that can do those exact roles instead.
01:14:52
And it's it was really shocking thing. I
01:14:53
was saying to the team last night at
01:14:54
like 1:00 a.m. in the office, I was
01:14:55
like, this is a prime example of a
01:14:57
candidate. I was looking at this
01:14:58
particular candidate that 6 months ago I
01:15:01
would have bitten their hand off but now
01:15:04
>> I have to pause because my innovation
01:15:06
team in the corner of the office they're
01:15:08
they're able to do that now with these
01:15:10
AI agents instead and so I am you know
01:15:13
you hear a lot about the theoretical
01:15:15
impact of AI
01:15:16
>> but you're actually making the decision
01:15:18
yourself
01:15:19
>> and then it's theory it's theory it's
01:15:21
this thing on my Twitter feed like blah
01:15:22
blah blah whatever you hear on a podcast
01:15:24
you go blah blah blah whatever and then
01:15:26
you find yourself actually behaving that
01:15:28
way.
01:15:29
>> Your behavior is changing and you're
01:15:30
going, "Oh, it's very hard to know the
01:15:33
types of people to hire into our
01:15:35
company." And I've kind of almost
01:15:37
segmented them into these two groups
01:15:38
where you've got people that have very
01:15:40
deep expertise. Yeah,
01:15:41
>> I'd say it's three groups. People that
01:15:42
have very, very deep expertise on a
01:15:44
particular thing, you know, like my CFO.
01:15:46
Group number two, I'd say, are people
01:15:48
that are AI proficient,
01:15:50
>> who can actually handle this stuff and
01:15:52
be the people who manage the agents.
01:15:53
>> Yes. and they can redesign our workflows
01:15:56
across every department in the company
01:15:57
to be agentic
01:15:59
>> um the word about AI agents that's kind
01:16:01
of like the word you use so agentic
01:16:03
workflows and then the third group of
01:16:05
people are people who have skills that
01:16:07
are highly beneficial human to human and
01:16:09
in in real life so like humanto human
01:16:11
sales people that deal with
01:16:12
relationships
01:16:13
>> and are very good at it
01:16:14
>> and are very good at it because there
01:16:16
are still a certain type of sale where
01:16:19
people want to meet the person shake
01:16:20
their hand and say okay you're
01:16:22
responsible for this deal
01:16:23
>> we're still in a situation where people
01:16:24
don't want agents to do that. Those are
01:16:26
like the three groups. What I didn't say
01:16:28
is young people who have
01:16:31
>> just come out of university, maybe don't
01:16:32
know anything about agents. They don't
01:16:34
have the deep expertise yet.
01:16:35
>> Yeah.
01:16:36
>> And when you look at the data, we'll
01:16:37
throw some of the data up on the screen.
01:16:39
It appears that these sort of entrylevel
01:16:42
white collar jobs are the ones that are
01:16:45
right now suffering. Yeah. Some of these
01:16:47
investment companies would hire like
01:16:48
three or 400 analysts to look at um
01:16:51
companies and make decisions. That is
01:16:53
one example of a of a role that's very
01:16:55
at risk now. We've got an investment
01:16:56
fund. We need one analyst, Molly. 6
01:16:59
months ago, we were interviewing more
01:17:00
analysts. We now realize that we just
01:17:02
need Molly, and we need to give Molly
01:17:04
AI.
01:17:04
>> Yeah.
01:17:04
>> And she can set up I think Molly said to
01:17:06
me yesterday when I left the office at
01:17:07
when she left the office at midnight,
01:17:09
she's now set up three agents, these
01:17:11
error agents
01:17:12
>> as her team. Those would have been three
01:17:14
people.
01:17:15
>> Well, I I saw a demo of that. Like I've
01:17:16
developed a software package called
01:17:17
Ravvel uh which I've got one programmer
01:17:20
for and I I teach an online course as
01:17:22
well and I give Ravel as part of that
01:17:24
online course and one of the members of
01:17:26
the course said he's using an AI to
01:17:29
build RAL models and he's also using an
01:17:31
AI to write code behind Ravvel and he
01:17:34
gave a demo this a couple of days ago
01:17:36
and you know I watched it happen on
01:17:39
screen as he built a model a simulation
01:17:41
system and it was messy on one stage but
01:17:45
it produced the correct mathemat atics.
01:17:47
So he's showing you can actually he he's
01:17:48
trying to tell me that we should get my
01:17:51
main programmer to learn to drive agents
01:17:53
to do the whole thing. Now my main
01:17:55
programmer has said look there's things
01:17:57
that I can do that an AI cannot do. He's
01:17:59
one of your highly gifted people. And he
01:18:02
said it wouldn't be worth my while to
01:18:03
have me telling an AI what to do because
01:18:06
what I lose in terms of my own
01:18:08
initiative I can't I just sort of
01:18:10
balance out. It's really a okay. But he
01:18:12
hires a junior programmer. than the
01:18:13
junior programmer would be one who's
01:18:15
trained to drive the AI.
01:18:16
>> I I do think programmers are fine.
01:18:18
Actually, there was some stats that I
01:18:19
saw the other day that showed there's
01:18:20
been this huge demand and people trying
01:18:22
to hire programmers. It's interesting
01:18:24
because you hear stats from Spotify.
01:18:26
Spotify saying, "We haven't written a
01:18:27
human line of code since December."
01:18:29
>> And I'm very good friends with the guys
01:18:30
at Spotify. I was actually with the CEO
01:18:31
the other day, a couple of weeks ago in
01:18:32
in Austin. And you you hear that and I
01:18:34
did check that with them. That's true.
01:18:37
>> So, you assume that that means we don't
01:18:38
need programmers anymore. But if you
01:18:40
think about like Jeban's paradox, when
01:18:42
something becomes, you know, Jeb's
01:18:43
paradox is the old analogy,
01:18:45
>> cheaper, you use more of it. Yeah.
01:18:46
>> Yeah. So like when coal became cheaper,
01:18:48
people were worried that maybe the coal
01:18:50
industry was out of business or trains,
01:18:52
whatever. But actually what ended up
01:18:53
happening is people just drove more
01:18:55
trains and they used them for other
01:18:56
things like transport. And the same
01:18:58
applies, I think, for AI. When
01:19:00
>> creating technology becomes easier,
01:19:02
every company starts using more
01:19:04
technology. So media companies, lawyers,
01:19:07
you name the company, executive
01:19:09
assistants, they all become coders. And
01:19:11
actually the demand for highly for
01:19:13
really anyone who knows how to code or
01:19:16
program it,
01:19:17
>> we're seeing it. It's exploding.
01:19:18
>> Yeah.
01:19:20
>> But I just think the job disruption in
01:19:22
the near for most people is going to be
01:19:23
pretty
01:19:24
>> Yeah. I mean there's ways in which AI
01:19:27
and robotics should be welcomed
01:19:29
>> because it means the possibility exists
01:19:33
and it's only a possibility that we can
01:19:35
no longer have to be exploited to get an
01:19:37
income because if you look at the
01:19:39
Marxist attitude towards capitalism as a
01:19:42
cap workers capitalists exploit the
01:19:44
workers. Okay. Um the real world is
01:19:46
we've been exploiting energy
01:19:48
>> mutually both labor and capital exploits
01:19:50
energy. We could have a future where we
01:19:52
don't have to work for a living and
01:19:54
therefore you could do what you want to
01:19:56
do for a living. That it's a Star Trek
01:19:58
future. That's that's the possibility
01:20:00
that it promises. But at the same time,
01:20:03
uh it could actually eliminate the jobs
01:20:05
that people currently rely upon. And
01:20:08
what I fear is we have two
01:20:10
possibilities. We have a future where
01:20:12
Star Trek's high future where you have
01:20:14
replicators that make the goods and we
01:20:16
consume and and we all live a energy
01:20:18
abundant life. uh or the hunger games
01:20:22
where there's one little elite that gets
01:20:24
has all the robots and lives extremely
01:20:26
well and we tolerate and oppress the
01:20:29
vast majority and they end up you know
01:20:31
hunger game entertainment those are the
01:20:34
two possibilities we face
01:20:36
>> I do think the cost of goods and
01:20:37
services will come down which is great
01:20:39
>> I think robotics you know if Elon is
01:20:41
right and I often say with Elon like his
01:20:43
timelines are not always accurate but he
01:20:45
does tend to deliver magic
01:20:47
>> he ultimately delivers but it you know
01:20:49
he always overpromises and delivers
01:20:51
later than he plans.
01:20:53
>> And if he's right about when he says
01:20:55
there's going to be more humanoid
01:20:56
robots, his Optimus robots, than humans,
01:20:59
and he says also in his predictions that
01:21:02
there's going to be no need to study to
01:21:03
be a surgeon because the robots are
01:21:04
going to be so much more uh advanced and
01:21:07
better than any living surgeon, that
01:21:09
would imply that surgery and other sort
01:21:11
of medical diagnoses and procedures are
01:21:14
going to be incredibly cheap, incredibly
01:21:15
quick. Great.
01:21:16
>> How do you pay for them? That's the next
01:21:18
question. Yeah. So, yeah. How do you pay
01:21:21
for them? And do people want to, you
01:21:22
know,
01:21:23
>> it's also it's also the physical
01:21:24
requirements. I mean, the amount of
01:21:26
copper inside a robot, you're talking,
01:21:29
you know, several kilos per robot. Um,
01:21:32
do we have enough to produce 8 billion
01:21:34
of them?
01:21:35
>> And maybe, you know, surgeons do much
01:21:36
more than just operate.
01:21:38
>> Yeah.
01:21:38
>> There's a human element to the medical
01:21:40
profession, which I think is sometimes
01:21:40
unappreciated. Like, I would I don't
01:21:42
know if I'm quite ready to go talk to a
01:21:44
robot about my health yet. Maybe I'll
01:21:45
adjust. I wanted to come back to
01:21:46
something you actually said earlier. You
01:21:48
talked about Bitcoin briefly. I've heard
01:21:49
you say that you think Bitcoin is going
01:21:51
to zero.
01:21:52
>> Yeah.
01:21:52
>> Okay. This is worrying. I think I have
01:21:54
some Bitcoin.
01:21:56
>> You're an economist. You're saying that
01:21:57
Bitcoin is going to zero. Why?
01:22:00
>> Because ultimately because of its
01:22:01
reliance upon energy. I mean I you know
01:22:04
you Max you Max Kaiser and Stacy
01:22:06
Herbert. Have you met them at all? No.
01:22:07
They were sort of the original
01:22:08
proletizers for Bitcoin and they're now
01:22:11
living in I think El Salvador um which
01:22:15
is adopted Bitcoin as a form of
01:22:16
currency. When they told me about
01:22:19
Bitcoin, I could have bought it for a
01:22:20
pound a bitcoin which would have been I
01:22:22
would have been bloody would be
01:22:23
wealthier than you if I'd done that. The
01:22:25
reason I didn't was they explained that
01:22:27
the way that the public ledger is kept
01:22:29
safe is that it takes too much energy to
01:22:32
break it. So each transaction requires
01:22:35
10 minutes of computer processing time
01:22:38
globally by the looks of it to actually
01:22:40
create an extra bitcoin and that means
01:22:43
it's too expensive for somebody to try
01:22:45
to break the ledger. That means it's got
01:22:47
a huge requirement for energy use and I
01:22:52
believe knowing what I know from climate
01:22:54
scientists that at some point we're
01:22:56
going to realize we're using far too
01:22:58
much energy on the planet. We've got to
01:23:00
cut the energy consumption and the two
01:23:02
easiest things to cut out to reduce
01:23:04
energy consumption are cryptocurrencies
01:23:06
and international travel.
01:23:08
>> But aren't you saying that, you know,
01:23:09
nuclear energy is becoming vogue again?
01:23:12
And they're talking a lot, you know,
01:23:13
about
01:23:14
>> it's the amount of time it takes to
01:23:15
build that stuff. I mean, China is
01:23:17
building nuclear power stations at a
01:23:19
hell of a rate and much much cheaper,
01:23:22
more cheaply than America is doing.
01:23:23
>> Solar has become a big topic of
01:23:25
conversation.
01:23:26
>> Yeah. Again, there's a guy called Simon
01:23:28
Machau, whom I recommend you get in
01:23:30
touch with as well. And Simon is an
01:23:32
engineer who claims that we simply don't
01:23:34
have the physical minerals necessary to
01:23:37
support a completely solar and
01:23:39
wind-based
01:23:41
energy system. He's got people who
01:23:43
criticize his analysis definitely, but
01:23:46
we still are using far more physical
01:23:49
resources than we're aware of at the
01:23:51
moment on the planet. And the
01:23:53
availability of various critical
01:23:55
elements that we need for the system we
01:23:58
have right now, it's much less abundant
01:24:01
than we would like it to be. So, a lot
01:24:03
of these things about, you know,
01:24:04
robotics taken over, do we have the
01:24:06
minerals for it? Solar power, do we have
01:24:09
the minerals? The answer is is not is
01:24:11
not yes. Okay. Sometimes the answer is
01:24:14
no. Other times it's it's dubious. But I
01:24:17
think that energy requirement alone is a
01:24:19
problem.
01:24:19
>> You're saying that we're going to have
01:24:20
we're going to have to cut back on our
01:24:22
energy consumption.
01:24:23
>> But I mean the direction of travel has
01:24:24
been we've been able to produce more and
01:24:26
more and more and more energy
01:24:27
>> and we're dumping it into the
01:24:28
environment. The planet the problem
01:24:30
about the use of energy is it's
01:24:32
happening on a planet. Okay. Can the
01:24:35
biosphere cope with the waste that we
01:24:37
dump into it as a result of using that
01:24:40
energy? And that is something which
01:24:41
economists are completely stupid on
01:24:44
beyond stupid. They've trivialized the
01:24:46
dangers of the amount of resources we
01:24:49
use and the amount of energy we use. So
01:24:51
I don't think that energy future is
01:24:53
possible on this biosphere at the
01:24:54
moment. It's possible in the future if
01:24:57
we get off the biosphere. So in that
01:24:59
sense I'm even more of a space cadet
01:25:00
than Elon Musk is. I think we have to
01:25:03
plan to take production off planet, but
01:25:05
while we're constrained on the
01:25:06
biosphere, the biosphere's constraints
01:25:08
will stop us using as much energy as we
01:25:11
used wish to use.
01:25:12
>> What are you what are your closing
01:25:13
statements on this whole situation with
01:25:15
the war and Iran and everything that's
01:25:16
going on from a geopolitical
01:25:18
perspective?
01:25:19
>> Basic thing is our system is far more
01:25:20
fragile than we've convinced oursel that
01:25:23
it is. And we can make observations
01:25:26
about potential futures which presume a
01:25:28
robustness we don't have. And if that
01:25:31
robustness is destroyed either by
01:25:35
military conflict or by overextending
01:25:37
what we put into the biosphere, then we
01:25:40
can fall off what's called the Senica
01:25:42
cliff. We can go from an abundant future
01:25:44
to a collapse.
01:25:45
>> And what would you say the people at
01:25:46
home should be doing to course correct
01:25:49
the path that you think we're on?
01:25:52
>> Stop electing fools.
01:25:54
Um, electing Trump was an enormous
01:25:56
mistake. We've got politicians who
01:25:59
follow what's called neoliberal
01:26:02
political philosophies. Therefore, put
01:26:04
us in this problem. It hasn't worked. We
01:26:06
need to reverse back to having a
01:26:08
humanoriented and physically realistic
01:26:11
view of how the economy managed should
01:26:14
be managed and how the biosphere should
01:26:16
be managed. We have to take care of our
01:26:18
home and in a central sense we're
01:26:20
destroying our home and thinking we can
01:26:22
keep on doing that indefinitely. We
01:26:24
can't. Our poem is planet earth. Planet
01:26:27
earth has got physical restraints. We
01:26:30
haven't respected them. Planet earth
01:26:32
will tell us what it thinks of that this
01:26:34
century.
01:26:34
>> And which leaders do you think we should
01:26:36
be electing? Do you think we should be
01:26:37
electing?
01:26:38
>> I don't think I I think even lifting
01:26:39
leaders itself is a mistake because what
01:26:42
we then do is end up getting we we
01:26:46
pander to narcissists. We pander to
01:26:48
people who believe they can solve all
01:26:50
our problems. We end up with
01:26:52
megalomaniacs making decisions. If you
01:26:55
look back at where Athenian democracy
01:26:58
came from, Athenanian democracy didn't
01:27:00
use elections. It used a process of like
01:27:03
random number generators to select
01:27:05
intelligent people to fulfill essential
01:27:08
roles in those societies. And they they
01:27:12
weren't even people you got to know by
01:27:13
name in that sense. We know Trump here,
01:27:15
we know Star here, we have Albanesei
01:27:18
over here. We end up getting narcissists
01:27:20
and megalomaniacs
01:27:22
directing us and they're the last people
01:27:24
you need to make decisions.
01:27:26
>> When you're thinking about your own
01:27:27
money as an economist, what are you
01:27:29
doing to protect your
01:27:30
>> I'm not doing much. I mean, I I've been
01:27:33
I've been a a crusader for reforming
01:27:35
economic theory. For my whole life, I've
01:27:38
sort of neglected this side of things to
01:27:41
my detriment, I've got to say. Um, but I
01:27:46
really am focused on what's sustainable
01:27:47
for everybody rather than what I can
01:27:49
make as my own cut. And I don't think
01:27:51
we've got a sustainable economy at the
01:27:53
moment. We have a philosophy of
01:27:55
economics which leads to breakdowns.
01:27:57
>> I'm asking that cuz I've got so many
01:27:58
friends and listeners that ask me often
01:28:00
like, should I be buying a house right
01:28:01
now? Do you think I should be investing
01:28:02
in gold? Do you think I should be saving
01:28:04
my money? Should I be, I don't know,
01:28:06
investing in technology companies?
01:28:07
>> Yeah.
01:28:08
>> And I'm wondering if you had a
01:28:09
perspective for them.
01:28:10
>> Not on that. No. like I've I've really
01:28:12
left that area alone. I'm I'm actually
01:28:14
looking at the overall system and saying
01:28:16
how do we make the system sustainable so
01:28:18
that people can live within it and what
01:28:20
we've got is an unsustainable system and
01:28:22
you're asking me how do people survive
01:28:24
within an unsustainable system? Answer
01:28:26
is they don't. We always think we can do
01:28:28
something at the individual level to
01:28:29
cope with what's happening in the system
01:28:31
around us that only works if the system
01:28:33
around us is stable.
01:28:34
>> What is a better system then? Uh I think
01:28:37
I think what China has done is a better
01:28:39
in a better direction. They have a they
01:28:42
have a collective focus as well as an
01:28:44
individual focus.
01:28:45
>> What's their system called?
01:28:46
>> It's called communist.
01:28:47
>> So you think communism is better than
01:28:49
capitalism?
01:28:50
>> I think a system which reflects the need
01:28:53
for a cohesive society as well as
01:28:56
individual gain is needed and the system
01:28:59
in China is closer to that than the
01:29:01
system in America. in in China. Listen,
01:29:03
I don't know a ton about this, but they
01:29:05
have a leader who stays in power and
01:29:07
>> that's one that's the potential weakness
01:29:09
>> and suppresses the people's decision-m
01:29:12
entrepreneurialism.
01:29:13
>> Equally, you've got a system to get into
01:29:15
the Communist Party. You've got to have
01:29:18
uh highly you've got to be educated to
01:29:20
get in and you have to perform to some
01:29:23
extent in the region in which you begin
01:29:25
your role.
01:29:26
>> But you're not saying you think the West
01:29:27
should adopt communism, are you? No, I'm
01:29:29
saying that is west should adopt a
01:29:30
system which reflects the need for a
01:29:33
cohesive society.
01:29:34
>> Is that socialism?
01:29:35
>> Socialism is closer to it. I mean I the
01:29:37
words are all tainted. Okay. If you go
01:29:40
back, you know, do you eat Cadbury's
01:29:42
chocolate?
01:29:43
>> I try not to.
01:29:44
>> You have, haven't you? Okay. Cadbury's
01:29:46
was a socialist enterprise. Okay. It was
01:29:48
formed as a a belief we have one who
01:29:51
could work as the best possible
01:29:52
situation while also selling a
01:29:54
profitable product. Mondreon in Spain is
01:29:57
another cooperative started by a
01:29:58
Catholic priest. Uh of all things we
01:30:01
tend to be very binary in the west. We
01:30:03
say you either have competition or you
01:30:05
have cooperation. Okay. Well, you need
01:30:07
to be more like the east in the sense of
01:30:09
the idea of ying and nang. You have to
01:30:11
have both. Okay, cooperation and
01:30:13
competition.
01:30:14
>> And so that view is the closest thing is
01:30:16
socialism.
01:30:16
>> The closest to socialism. And what China
01:30:19
has done that better than Russia. You go
01:30:21
back to the USSR. uh that was they they
01:30:24
were disastrous in terms of product
01:30:25
development. China's been extremely
01:30:27
successful on that front. They've
01:30:29
learned from the mistakes of being too
01:30:31
centralized and too top down in Russia
01:30:33
to have both the top down and the bottom
01:30:35
up dynamic going on.
01:30:37
>> What's wrong with capitalism? And
01:30:38
capitalism is what the UK and the US
01:30:40
have adopted as their sort of economic
01:30:42
model.
01:30:42
>> It's seeing competition absolutely
01:30:45
ruling and ignoring cooperation. Now the
01:30:47
real the successful society combines
01:30:50
both. You have cooperation, you also
01:30:52
have competition. And we've pushed it
01:30:54
far too far in the competitive end and
01:30:56
not enough in the cooperative. And what
01:30:58
comes out of that as well is this cooper
01:31:01
competitive tends to be short-term
01:31:02
focus. What can I make a profit out of
01:31:04
in time that the money that I've
01:31:06
borrowed is I'm going to be able to make
01:31:09
more of a profit than the interest I'm
01:31:11
paying on the money I've I've created.
01:31:13
And if the interest if the longer it
01:31:14
takes to get the the repayment, the less
01:31:17
likely you are to make the investment.
01:31:18
So what you get is a focus upon
01:31:20
short-term with just a market system
01:31:23
whereas with the long term you say
01:31:24
what's going to last for 100 years and
01:31:27
like and what that means is you build
01:31:28
the infrastructure for the long term
01:31:30
while you allow competition to occur in
01:31:32
the short term. It's getting the balance
01:31:34
right. We've got the balance extremely
01:31:36
wrong.
01:31:37
>> Professor Steve, thank you. I highly
01:31:40
recommend people go check out your
01:31:42
YouTube channel where you make videos
01:31:43
all the time about what's going on in
01:31:44
the world. to give your opinion on
01:31:46
economic issues, political issues, the
01:31:47
Iran war. So, if people are listening
01:31:49
and they want to learn more from
01:31:50
Professor Steve, then look down below
01:31:52
and you should see his YouTube channel
01:31:54
linked um next to our name because we're
01:31:56
going to try and collaborate on this
01:31:58
post and I'll put you the the link to
01:31:59
your channel in the description below
01:32:01
for anyone that wants to check you out
01:32:02
and subscribe. It's so fascinating,
01:32:04
especially the stuff about around the
01:32:05
raw materials coming out the
01:32:06
straightforward because I really had no
01:32:08
idea. I it's just it's quite staggering
01:32:10
to me that we're so dependent on one
01:32:12
region of the world and I think from
01:32:13
watching your videos over the last
01:32:14
couple of weeks,
01:32:15
>> it's really made me understand the
01:32:17
unintended consequences of war
01:32:19
generally, but specifically this war in
01:32:21
Iran.
01:32:22
>> Um, so thank you for turning the lights
01:32:23
on for me. I really, really appreciate
01:32:25
this and I hope we can meet again soon
01:32:26
and have a conversation and hopefully,
01:32:29
you know, this all resolves itself in a
01:32:31
way that's good for everybody.
01:32:32
>> I hope so. I I'm having my 73rd birthday
01:32:34
tomorrow. Oh, I might have 74th as well,
01:32:36
but I think there's a question mark over
01:32:38
that now.
01:32:39
>> Well, I did hear it was your birthday
01:32:42
tomorrow.
01:32:43
>> I think the team have gotten you a
01:32:45
little something.
01:32:46
>> Okay.
01:32:47
>> Happy birthday
01:32:48
to you.
01:32:50
>> I'm embarrassed.
01:32:51
>> Happy birthday.
01:32:53
>> Oh my god.
01:32:56
>> Happy birthday.
01:32:59
>> My god. Thank you.
01:33:01
Happy birthday to you.
01:33:05
>> Holy hell. I'm missing.
01:33:07
>> Thank you. Should I blow the candles
01:33:08
out?
01:33:08
>> Yes, you should.
01:33:10
>> Okay, you get a wish.
01:33:11
>> You blew them all out, so you get a
01:33:12
wish.
01:33:14
>> Well, I wish for peace in the Middle
01:33:16
East.
01:33:16
>> Okay,
01:33:17
>> that's probably the main thing to say
01:33:18
about right now.
01:33:18
>> That is a gorgeous cake. I have to say
01:33:20
>> it's a marvelous cake. Yeah,
01:33:21
>> that's marking our own homework, but
01:33:23
>> this better be eaten by the crew cuz I'm
01:33:25
not going to eat all this myself. Okay,
01:33:27
you want to get out a knife and start
01:33:28
slicing up? My god,
01:33:30
>> thank you. Thank you so much. We're
01:33:31
done.
01:33:31
>> Thank you.
01:33:31
>> YouTube have this new crazy algorithm
01:33:33
where they know exactly what video you
01:33:35
would like to watch next based on AI and
01:33:37
all of your viewing behavior. And the
01:33:39
algorithm says that this video is the
01:33:42
perfect video for you. It's different
01:33:44
for everybody looking right now. Check
01:33:46
this video out and I bet you you might
01:33:48
love
