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Target Date Funds: More Flawed Than Advertised (E137)

April 22, 2026 / 44:05

This episode discusses target date funds, their performance, and how to evaluate them. Host Jesse Kramer shares insights from recent research on target date funds and their average underperformance.

Jesse explains the concept of target date funds, which are designed to simplify retirement investing by automatically adjusting asset allocation as the target retirement date approaches. He highlights the glide path feature and its significance in managing risk over time.

The episode references research by Professor David C. Brown, revealing that the average target date fund underperforms by 1% per year compared to a benchmark of passive index funds. Jesse discusses the factors contributing to this underperformance, including high fees and the prevalence of actively managed funds within target date portfolios.

Listeners are advised on how to assess their own target date funds and consider alternatives. Jesse emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying components of these funds and suggests building a more tailored investment strategy.

In conclusion, Jesse encourages listeners to be informed about their retirement investments and to seek out better options if their current target date funds are subpar.

TL;DR

Target date funds often underperform; evaluate yours carefully.

Episode

44:05
00:00:00
Target date funds are everywhere for
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American retirees, advertised as an easy
00:00:03
one-stop shop. And in some cases, that
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might be true. But recent research shows
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that the average target date fund is
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much worse than you might think. So,
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we'll break down all the details today
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and share with you how to judge whether
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your own target date fund is good, bad,
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or outright ugly. Welcome to personal
00:00:20
finance for long-term investors, where
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we believe Benjamin Franklin's advice
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that an investment in knowledge pays the
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best interest both in finances and in
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your life. Every episode teaches you
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personal finance and long-term investing
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in simple terms. Now, here's your host,
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Jesse Kramer. Welcome to Personal
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Finance for Long-Term Investors, episode
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137. My name is Jesse Kramer. By day, I
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work at a fiduciary wealth management
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firm helping clients nationwide. You can
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learn more at bestinterest.blog.
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blog/work. The link is in the show
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notes. By night, I write the best
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interest blog and I host this podcast. I
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also put out a weekly email newsletter.
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And all of those projects help busy
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professionals and retirees avoid
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mistakes and grow their wealth by
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simplifying their investing, taxes, and
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retirement planning. And yes, today will
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be a deep dive. You could even call it
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an expose on target date funds. So,
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first though, let me do a quick review
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of the week. This one is from 0302
00:01:13
Explorer who left a five-star review on
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Apple Podcasts and said, "Honest broker,
00:01:17
Jesse puts out some great retirement and
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personal finance content that covers
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some issues that other producers lack. I
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particularly appreciated how he tackled
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projecting inflation and HSA, that's
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health savings account issues. He's
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relatable, factual, and responds to
00:01:32
emails. Thank you for the kind words,
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Explorer. And yes, I do love responding
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to your emails. If you've ever gotten a
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uh you know a 300word email response
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from me. I apologize for the length. I
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think sometimes writing a long easier is
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probably easier than writing a short
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one. It's like Pascal said, I would have
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written a shorter letter, but I didn't
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have the time. But anyway, explorer,
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thank you for the kind words. Drop me an
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email to jessebinest.blog
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and I'll send you a super soft t-shirt.
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And I know I'm a little behind on
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t-shirts. I have to get a couple months
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worth of t-shirts shipped out. So, if
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you're waiting on a t-shirt from me,
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don't worry. It's on the to-do list.
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It'll happen soon. But let's get to the
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main show today. Let's focus on target
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date funds. I want to give a a special
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shout out to a couple other retirement
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nerds who set me down this path for this
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episode. So, Frank Vasquez, uh,
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especially his episode 333, 333 of his
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podcast, Risk Parody Radio. Then, Ben
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Felix and Cameron Pasmore, specifically
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their episode 374 of uh, Rational
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Reminder podcast. They produce the
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Rational Reminder podcast. And then,
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Professor David C. Brown who conducted a
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lot of the research that I'll be citing
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today. We'll link to all the relevant
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research and podcast episodes here in
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today's show notes. The simple fact and
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I'm I'm kind of excited about this topic
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today. I'm excited to be talking about
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it because up until I don't know a month
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ago, a couple months ago, I had this one
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particular set of thoughts about target
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date funds. Very positive thoughts. And
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those thoughts were based on all the
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learning that I'd done over the past 12
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years. you know, everything that I've
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ever consumed and and whatever of those
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topics were based about target date
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funds left a very positive set of
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thoughts in my head about target date
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funds. And if you look at other experts
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out there, Rammit Seti or Christine Benz
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or John Bogle himself are all on the
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record saying some pretty good things
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about target date funds. And when they
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said those things in the past, you know,
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especially if they were referring to
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what I'll call the right type of target
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date funds, I think those experts had a
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totally valid point. Somewhere in the
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filing cabinet of my mind, that helped
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me shape my positive opinion about
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target date funds. But with new
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information and new research, I had to
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shake off my prior opinions about target
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date funds and and revisit them. And so
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that's what created today's episode. So,
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in today's episode, I'll explain to you
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what target date funds are and how they
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work, just how dominant they are in the
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American retirement landscape, which is
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one of the reasons why I think it's so
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important to talk about them. We'll talk
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about the glide path concept, which is
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fundamental to target date funds, and
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I'll explain these five key factors of
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target date fund performance, and why
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those five key factors often lead to
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underperformance, which is one of the
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main reasons why we're here today. I'll
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talk about this thing called the curse
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of average and what you might want to
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think about instead of a target date
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fund and kind of what the spectrum of
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investing looks like. On that topic, I
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will talk a little bit about bread. Yes,
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the food. But I promise you, bread has
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something in common with target date
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funds. And last, I'll share with you a
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couple examples of target date funds
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that I think are the best of the bunch.
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And I'll share with you the exact
00:04:21
criteria that I use to evaluate them.
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So, let's get going. A target date fund
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is a type of investment fund designed
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ideally to simplify your retirement
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investing. Instead of building and
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managing a portfolio yourself of many
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different funds, you choose a single
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fund labeled with a year that's close to
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your expected retirement date, such as a
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2045 fund or a 2060 fund. And the fund
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itself then automatically manages your
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investment mix over time. And the core
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feature of a target date fund is its
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glide path. You know, think of a plane
00:04:50
coming into land, a glide path. And that
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glide path determines how the
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portfolio's risk level changes as the
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investor ages. Early in an investor's
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career, the target date fund typically
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holds mostly stocks because younger
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investors have many years before
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retirement and they can tolerate more
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market volatility. But as the target
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date itself approaches, the fund
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gradually shifts toward bonds in an
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effort to reduce the impact of large
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market downturns near retirement. Most
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target date funds are structured as a
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fund of funds. And what I'm about to say
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here is an incredibly important set of
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details. Okay, very very important. So
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instead of the fund holding individual
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securities directly, target date funds
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usually invest in a collection of
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underlying mutual funds or index funds.
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So that the target date fund manager
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decides how much to allocate to each
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asset class such as US stocks or
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international stocks or bonds and then
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periodically rebalances the target date
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fund portfolio to maintain the intended
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allocation. So it's a very important set
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of detail that it's a fund of funds and
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we'll dive into those details much
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further today. Now if we combine the
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glide path idea with the fund of funds
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idea, I want to give you a quick example
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of how a particular target date fund
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works. So I'm going to share the the
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Vanguard family of target date funds as
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they've published a very informative web
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page explaining their glide path in
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great detail. We'll link that glide path
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link here in the show notes. So Vanguard
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for all their target date funds, they
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define five age-based markers in a
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person's life or career. So at age 20,
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they assume that someone is is starting
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the early career phase of their life.
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And then at 40, the second phase starts.
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They call it midcareer. At age 60, they
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define that as the beginning of the
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transition to retirement. Age 65 is when
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retirement actually occurs. And then at
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age 72 is what they call the beginning
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of retirement withdrawals. And that's
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based on research that they've done.
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They said the average retiree begins
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withdrawing from their portfolio at age
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72. Going back starting at age 20,
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Vanguard has its investors in a 90%
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stock 10% bond asset mix. The stocks
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themselves are a 60/40 mix of US to
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international and the bond portion is
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70% US to 30% international. And that
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9010 overall allocation remains until
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age 40. And that's when for Vanguard,
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the glide path begins. So over the
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following 20 years between ages 40 and
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age 60, the allocation shifts from 90%
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stocks down to 60% stocks and from 10%
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bonds up to 40% bonds. That glide path
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continues onto age 65, by which time the
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overall allocation is 50/50. But in the
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five years between 60 and 65, the
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Vanguard funds, they add in uh
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short-term TIPS. TIPS being, you know,
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treasury inflation protected securities.
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It's a type of bond that's protected
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against inflation or has a hedge against
00:07:43
inflation. And about 10% of the
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portfolio ends up in TIPS by age 65. So
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40% being other types of bonds, 10%
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TIPS, and 50% in stocks by age 65. And
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then the glide path continues another 7
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years to age 72 which as I said before
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that's when Vanguard's research states
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is the average age when portfolio
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withdrawals actually begin. And at that
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point the Vanguard target date fund it
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reaches its final allocation 30% stocks
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and 70% bonds. 16 of that 70% is in the
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tips bonds and that allocation is
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maintained going forward for ostensibly
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the rest of the investor's life. So that
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right there is how a glide path works.
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Now, let me pivot really quickly, talk a
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little bit about history. Back in the
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early 2000s, we have to understand that
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the default investment in many American
00:08:31
retirement plans was cash or very, very
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short-term treasuries. After all, cash
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and treasuries are both very quote
00:08:37
unquote safe, low-risk investments. So
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rather than automatically investing
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someone's money into something slightly
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more aggressive or something that had
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more long-term growth, the 401k plans
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back in the early 2000s and before would
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play it safe with an ultra low-risk
00:08:53
asset. So you would have people who who
00:08:55
were saving in their 401ks for years, if
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not decades, and maybe they assumed
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their money was being invested in some
00:09:00
way, but unless they went in and
00:09:02
actually maybe opted into a true
00:09:04
investment, that money might just be
00:09:06
sitting there in cash again for years or
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decades. And that's not a very good
00:09:09
outcome. In fact, it's an outright bad
00:09:11
outcome. But Congress changed things. In
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2006, they passed a law called the
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Pension Protection Act. Took me about
00:09:18
five takes to get through that word,
00:09:19
which basically mandated that every
00:09:21
single retirement plan out there had
00:09:23
these things called qualified default
00:09:25
investment alternatives. QDIA, qualified
00:09:28
default investment alternative. And as
00:09:30
the name might imply, the point was that
00:09:32
you can't just put all the people in the
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401k plan in cash as a default. You have
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to have some sort of actual investment
00:09:39
alternative that can act as a default.
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And target date funds were one of the
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very limited options that qualified as
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one of these QDIA qualified default
00:09:48
investment alternatives. And you know,
00:09:50
their appeal was their ease. Investors
00:09:52
could hold one diversified fund possibly
00:09:55
for decades and decades of time while
00:09:57
the asset allocation automatically
00:09:59
adjusted as retirement approached. And
00:10:01
this idea, at least on its face, makes
00:10:03
sense. It aims to provide a hands-off, a
00:10:06
diversified, a long-term investment
00:10:08
strategy. All good things and all
00:10:10
related to an investor's expected
00:10:11
retirement timeline. Now, Morning Star,
00:10:15
wellrespected institution, estimates
00:10:17
that almost $5 trillion today sits
00:10:19
inside of target date funds. If you had
00:10:21
a h 100red million people, right? Think
00:10:23
about that. If you had a 100 million
00:10:24
people who each had $50,000 inside of a
00:10:27
target date fund, that would get you to
00:10:29
$5 trillion. I only put it in those
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terms because 100 million people is
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about twothirds of the American
00:10:34
workforce or about 40% of the entire
00:10:37
population of American adults and
00:10:39
$50,000 while not enough to retire on is
00:10:42
a pretty good chunk of change. And I
00:10:44
would wager that any of you listening,
00:10:45
for example, that you would care and you
00:10:47
would certainly keep track of a $50,000
00:10:49
line item on your balance sheet. So the
00:10:51
magnitude of what we're talking about
00:10:53
here today is as if half the adults you
00:10:55
know have $50,000 on the line. It's kind
00:10:58
of a big deal. And then approximately
00:11:00
twothirds of all new dollars going into
00:11:03
workplace retirement plans are going
00:11:04
into target date funds. So again, it's
00:11:07
as if more than half of all the working
00:11:08
people, you know, are putting their
00:11:10
retirement dollars into these types of
00:11:12
funds. It's a big deal. And I can say
00:11:15
for myself that currently my 401k is
00:11:17
through Empower, which is a really big
00:11:18
kind of 401k institution. Now, I'm not
00:11:21
using a target date fund in my current
00:11:23
401k. I built a simple three index fund
00:11:26
portfolio in that account. But at my
00:11:28
previous 401k, I was using a target date
00:11:31
fund. It happened to be a black rockck
00:11:33
fund. And we'll come back to Black
00:11:34
Rockck later today. And I know for a
00:11:36
fact that the reason I got interested in
00:11:38
personal finance and investing in the
00:11:39
very first place is because my first
00:11:41
ever postcol job, I was using a 2050
00:11:44
target date funds through Fidelity and I
00:11:46
was watching it grow. So target date
00:11:48
funds are everywhere. But not all target
00:11:51
date funds are equal. In fact, many of
00:11:53
them are not only less than optimal,
00:11:56
many of them are outright bad. And
00:11:58
that's one of the big reasons why I'm
00:11:59
here talking to you today. So, why do I
00:12:01
say this? Now, what's this the simple
00:12:03
summary takeaway for today's episode?
00:12:05
It's that the average target date fund
00:12:07
in today's American retirement plan
00:12:10
underperforms by an average of 1% per
00:12:13
year. Underperforms by an average of 1%
00:12:15
per year. Don't worry, I'll explain
00:12:17
this, but the takeaway is that 1% per
00:12:19
year underperformance. If someone starts
00:12:21
using a target date fund at 22 and holds
00:12:23
it until 82, after all, it is supposed
00:12:25
to be a one-stop shop for life, that
00:12:28
could be 60 years of underperformance.
00:12:30
If you punch that into a calculator, if
00:12:32
you punch in 1% underperformance for 60
00:12:34
years, it would eliminate 44% of that
00:12:37
investor's would be wealth. Instead of
00:12:39
having $1 million, that investor only
00:12:42
has $560,000.
00:12:44
Now, that is obviously a tremendous
00:12:46
claim. It needs to be explained. It
00:12:48
needs to be backed up. But the the first
00:12:49
and most obvious place to start, I
00:12:51
think, is uh 1% underperformance. Well,
00:12:54
compared to what, you know, what
00:12:55
benchmark are we using to say that
00:12:57
target date funds underperform
00:12:59
something? And this result comes
00:13:00
directly from professor David C. Brown's
00:13:02
research. What professor Brown did was
00:13:04
he he looked across the target date fund
00:13:07
landscape at any one particular vintage.
00:13:09
So, a vintage almost like wine. Think of
00:13:11
the year. So, 2040 target date funds.
00:13:14
2040 being a particular vintage. He's
00:13:16
looking across every single 2040 target
00:13:18
date fund. He looks at Vanguard's 2040.
00:13:21
He looks at Fidelity's 2040 funds
00:13:23
because Fidelity actually has two
00:13:24
different 2040 funds. One is totally
00:13:26
passive with index funds, but one is
00:13:28
active. One uses active funds at
00:13:30
Fidelity. And he looks at Black Rockck's
00:13:33
2040 and State Streets 2040 and Troll
00:13:35
prices 2040, etc., etc., etc., every
00:13:37
single 2040 fund out there. And he takes
00:13:39
the average allocation of all of them.
00:13:41
How much in US stock? How much in
00:13:43
international stocks? how much in US
00:13:45
bonds, international bonds and other
00:13:46
stuff. That average allocation to stocks
00:13:49
and bonds and other stuffs that that's
00:13:51
the study's benchmark. But more
00:13:53
specifically, the study benchmark
00:13:55
portfolio uses only index funds. So
00:13:57
again, the 2040 benchmark against which
00:13:59
all of the individual 2040 target date
00:14:02
funds would be compared was simply the
00:14:04
average allocation of all those funds in
00:14:06
terms of stocks and bonds and anything
00:14:08
else but recreated as a totally passive
00:14:11
indexonly fund. Then Professor Brown
00:14:15
went through and compared each
00:14:16
individual 2040 fund against that
00:14:19
benchmark. And on average, the
00:14:21
individual 2040 funds underperformed
00:14:24
this benchmark by 1% per year. Now,
00:14:28
where does that underperformance come
00:14:30
from? Well, the first place is fees. On
00:14:33
average, 0.55% or 55 basis points,
00:14:37
right? Just over half a percent. 55
00:14:40
basis points of the underperformance is
00:14:42
due to fees alone because remember the
00:14:44
benchmark portfolio it's only index
00:14:46
funds so it's very very low cost
00:14:48
professor Brown used Vanguard index
00:14:50
funds specifically so his benchmark
00:14:53
portfolio had fees lower than 0.05%
00:14:57
120th of a percent five basis points and
00:14:59
what this is telling you in short is
00:15:01
that many target date funds have fees
00:15:03
that are half a percent 6.7% or even
00:15:06
higher some fund providers charge upward
00:15:08
of 1.2 2% upward of 1.5% per year.
00:15:12
That's just for the investments and
00:15:14
that's just not a good price in today's
00:15:16
investment landscape. And I'm not saying
00:15:18
that target date funds should be free.
00:15:20
I'm not saying that it should have the
00:15:21
same cost as an index fund. But these
00:15:24
products can be done so simply that the
00:15:26
fees ought to be very very low.
00:15:28
Vanguard's 2040 fund, for example, has
00:15:30
an all-in cost of 0.08%.
00:15:33
Eight basis points, 8 hundredths of a
00:15:36
percent. Fidelity's index 20 240 fund
00:15:39
is.12% or 12 basis points. Now that to
00:15:42
me is the cost I would expect to pay for
00:15:44
a target date fund. So fees are that the
00:15:47
biggest component of the
00:15:48
underperformance. But where else does
00:15:50
the underperformance come from? The next
00:15:52
biggest culprit is actively managed
00:15:54
funds inside of the target date funds.
00:15:57
So even before we look at fees, the
00:15:59
active funds that are inside of some
00:16:01
target date funds underperform their
00:16:04
comparable indexes by about 0.45% or 45
00:16:07
basis points per year. So let's go back
00:16:10
to the Vanguard 2040 fund to explain
00:16:12
this one. Vanguard's 2040 fund has four
00:16:15
sub funds inside of it. A US stock index
00:16:18
fund, an international stock index fund,
00:16:20
a US bond index fund, and an
00:16:23
international bond index fund. All four
00:16:25
of those are index funds. very very
00:16:27
cheap. But not all target date funds are
00:16:29
composed of only index funds. In fact,
00:16:32
many are not composed of any index
00:16:34
funds. I'm going to pick on Fidelity a
00:16:36
little bit here because I know they're
00:16:38
big enough to handle it. They do offer
00:16:39
an index target date fund like I
00:16:41
mentioned before, but they also offer
00:16:43
active target date funds. They're 2040
00:16:46
active target date fund. The ticker is
00:16:48
FF FFX. That's four Fs and then an X if
00:16:52
you're curious. It holds 15 US stock
00:16:55
funds. all of which are Fidelity funds
00:16:57
and all of which are active. It also
00:16:59
holds 10 international stock funds, all
00:17:01
Fidelity, all active. 15 different bond
00:17:04
funds and a smattering of individual
00:17:05
bonds, too. It's a lot. It's also all
00:17:09
relatively high cost because it's
00:17:10
actively managed and there are more
00:17:12
people at Fidelity working behind the
00:17:14
scenes to manage that account, manage
00:17:16
that fund, I should say. And that's
00:17:17
expensive. Fidelity is far from alone
00:17:20
here. And in Fidelity's defense, that
00:17:22
particular 2040 active target date fund
00:17:25
has performed right in line with
00:17:26
Fidelity's own index target date fund
00:17:28
over the past decade. But the fact is
00:17:30
that many other fund providers also
00:17:32
offer target date funds that hold their
00:17:34
own active funds, only playing with
00:17:37
their own active funds. And just what do
00:17:39
we know about active funds in general?
00:17:40
Well, we know that on average they
00:17:42
underperform their passive counterparts.
00:17:44
You know, it reminds me of the culinary
00:17:46
stories about how a cook can use a bunch
00:17:48
of old, possibly bad food and blend it
00:17:51
together into a soup. That's not the
00:17:52
soup that you want. But what we have
00:17:54
here are fund managers, many of whom
00:17:56
you've heard of, who blend together
00:17:58
their active funds into target date
00:18:00
soup. And they know that target date
00:18:02
soup is a approved investment type. It's
00:18:05
an approved food item inside of the 401k
00:18:08
and 403b plans. and they know that
00:18:10
twothirds of all new dollars going into
00:18:12
retirement funds order some form of
00:18:14
target date soup. To me, this is a very
00:18:17
bad problem. Those are the two biggest
00:18:20
culprits of underperformance here today.
00:18:22
Target date funds provide worse
00:18:23
performance simply due to their often
00:18:26
active management and they do so at much
00:18:28
higher fees than passive funds. Worst
00:18:30
performance plus higher fees equals 1%
00:18:33
per year underperformance. Here's a
00:18:36
quick ad and then we'll get back to the
00:18:37
show. Did you know my written blog, The
00:18:40
Best Interest, was nominated for 2022
00:18:43
Personal Finance Blog of the Year, and
00:18:45
it's been highlighted in the Wall Street
00:18:46
Journal, Yahoo Finance, and on CNBC. I
00:18:49
love writing, especially when that
00:18:51
writing is to share financial education.
00:18:53
And I usually write one or two articles
00:18:55
per week. You can read them all at
00:18:58
bestinterest.blog.
00:19:00
Again, the web address is
00:19:02
bestinterest.blog.
00:19:04
Check it out. Now, I said there were
00:19:06
going to be five negative components of
00:19:07
target date funds, and we've only
00:19:08
covered two. The third one, the next
00:19:10
one, is what they call tactical
00:19:11
allocation changes. So, let's use
00:19:13
Vanguard as our example. Back in the
00:19:15
mid2010s,
00:19:17
Vanguard's target date fund managers
00:19:19
decided on the whole that all of their
00:19:21
target date funds didn't have enough
00:19:23
stock exposure, and so every single one
00:19:25
of their target date funds shifted
00:19:27
higher in their stock allocation. That
00:19:29
was a a strategic long-term shift over
00:19:32
their entire target date portfolio. Now
00:19:35
any fund manager is welcome to do the
00:19:37
same kind of thing or they can say
00:19:39
something like you know what normally
00:19:40
we'd be 6040 US to international on our
00:19:43
stocks but we're going to shift to 7030
00:19:46
or we feel like interest rates are going
00:19:47
to drop so we're going to overweight our
00:19:49
fund into bonds. These are active
00:19:52
tactical decisions that the fund
00:19:53
managers make at some sort of high
00:19:55
allocation level and they are
00:19:57
essentially either changing the
00:19:58
predetermined glide path or they are
00:20:01
chasing returns or predicting returns in
00:20:03
some way. And these decisions on average
00:20:06
reduced the returns of target date funds
00:20:09
by about 10 basis points or onetenth of
00:20:11
a percent per year. That's the third big
00:20:13
issue with target date funds is that
00:20:15
sometimes you have managers who are
00:20:17
trying to be smart. I'm sure they're not
00:20:19
trying to they're not trying to hurt
00:20:21
investors obviously, but on the whole
00:20:23
when those fund managers do something
00:20:25
like that, they do end up hurting
00:20:27
investors. The fourth issue, I guess the
00:20:29
more I think about it, you can make an
00:20:30
argument that the fourth issue I'm about
00:20:31
to say is just a symptom of the first
00:20:33
three issues. But the fourth issue is
00:20:35
the amazingly wide dispersion between
00:20:38
different target date funds. In
00:20:39
professor Brown's study, he found that
00:20:41
the annual rate of return difference
00:20:42
between the best target date funds and
00:20:44
the worst target date funds of the same
00:20:46
vintage, meaning you know the same say
00:20:48
2040 target year, that the best versus
00:20:51
the worst funds had an annualized return
00:20:53
difference that was 3% per year. And the
00:20:56
most egregious quarterly dispersion, so
00:20:58
in a single quarter, was a full 23%.
00:21:01
Meaning during one particular quarter,
00:21:03
fund A might have returned positive 5%.
00:21:06
And fund B returned 18%. Now admittedly,
00:21:10
Professor Brown would admit this. This
00:21:12
is a cherrypicked statistic, but just
00:21:14
imagine two investors who believe they
00:21:16
are invested in basically the same
00:21:18
thing. After all, they both own a 2040
00:21:21
target date fund. One investor though
00:21:23
sees his portfolio go up by 5% in a
00:21:26
given quarter and another investor sees
00:21:28
hers go down by 18% in that same quarter
00:21:31
or another way of looking at it is that
00:21:32
over the next 20 or 30 years their
00:21:34
annualized returns end up differing by
00:21:37
3% per year. That's a massive
00:21:39
difference. Now what happens when one
00:21:41
investor gets say 5% a year for 30 years
00:21:44
and another investor gets 7% a year for
00:21:47
30 years with typical 401k annual
00:21:49
contributions. the difference in their
00:21:51
two returns is easily going to surpass
00:21:54
half a million dollars. I mean, that's
00:21:56
what we're talking about here is the
00:21:57
differences of half a million dollars
00:21:59
between two investors who think they are
00:22:01
invested in basically the same thing.
00:22:03
And the point is that for a fund type
00:22:05
that at least to me is marketed like a
00:22:07
commodity, it's anything but a
00:22:09
commodity. And now what do I mean by
00:22:10
that? I mean that all gasoline, as far
00:22:13
as most of us know, is basically the
00:22:15
same. It's a commodity. sugar and table
00:22:17
salt and white rice are basically always
00:22:20
the same across brands. Milk and eggs
00:22:22
and baby carrots are basically the same
00:22:24
across different brands. And that at
00:22:26
least to me is how target date funds are
00:22:28
at least marketed to us. But what this
00:22:31
study shows and what we're here to talk
00:22:32
about today is that that's not how it
00:22:34
works in reality. A much better analogy,
00:22:37
equally as ubiquitous as gasoline or
00:22:38
baby carrots, would be the common
00:22:40
hamburger. Yes, every hamburger involves
00:22:43
a beef patty between a bun, but every
00:22:45
restaurant from the fast food
00:22:46
juggernauts down to the local diners to
00:22:48
the Michelin star, you know, gourmet
00:22:50
restaurants, they all do hamburgers
00:22:52
their own different way. And to suggest
00:22:54
that all hamburgers are the same, while
00:22:56
yes, they share some common traits, they
00:22:58
are far from identical. And so that's
00:23:01
why my fourth major drawback here is the
00:23:03
dispersion in results. for something
00:23:04
that is marketed at least to the the lay
00:23:07
person as being largely uniform. The
00:23:10
results make us realize it's anything
00:23:12
but. And fifth is what I would describe
00:23:14
as the illusion of choice. So yes,
00:23:17
Vanguard and Black Rockck and Fidelity,
00:23:20
at least on the index side, and some
00:23:21
other providers do have some really good
00:23:24
best-in-class target date funds. But
00:23:26
does your 401k or 403b have those ones?
00:23:29
Maybe not. Most retirement plans only
00:23:31
have one single family or one single
00:23:34
fund provider of target date funds. And
00:23:36
as I mentioned earlier, my very first
00:23:37
401k plan only had Fidelity target date
00:23:40
funds. I don't exactly remember if it
00:23:42
was the active or the index kind. I
00:23:44
don't own it anymore. My previous
00:23:45
employer had only the Black Rockck
00:23:47
target date funds. And I look at
00:23:49
people's account statements all the
00:23:50
time. I've seen many of the target date
00:23:52
fund providers that make up the bad
00:23:54
results that we've covered here today.
00:23:56
So, even though, as we'll discuss in a
00:23:58
few minutes, there are some target date
00:24:00
funds that I believe are on the good
00:24:01
side of this conversation, there's a
00:24:03
stronger likelihood that any individual
00:24:05
person out there is going to have one of
00:24:06
the limited target date fund options in
00:24:08
their retirement plan that's on the bad
00:24:10
side. You know, those target date funds
00:24:11
aren't very good. Let me now slightly
00:24:14
pivot to something called the curse of
00:24:15
average. Some people see this curse as a
00:24:17
total failure of target date funds. I
00:24:19
see it as a a smaller issue than that,
00:24:21
but an issue nonetheless. So the curse
00:24:23
of average is an idea that designing any
00:24:25
product right whether it's an investing
00:24:27
product or something a consumer product
00:24:29
an educational product anything that
00:24:31
designing it for the average user is
00:24:33
just a flawed design strategy because an
00:24:36
average person who perfectly represents
00:24:38
the average in all dimension well they
00:24:41
rarely if ever exist. So when you design
00:24:43
for the average you create a product
00:24:45
that ends up being mediocre for
00:24:47
everybody rather than truly helpful for
00:24:49
any one person. In other words, how
00:24:51
could Vanguard or any other fund manager
00:24:54
design one fund that is supposed to be
00:24:56
quote unquote right for everybody
00:24:58
between ages 43 and 48? How could they
00:25:01
possibly take into account that person's
00:25:03
savings rate if they reach retirement
00:25:05
different from age 65 or if they begin
00:25:07
withdrawing different from age 72? How
00:25:10
can they take into account the outside
00:25:11
investment accounts or how those
00:25:13
accounts are invested? How can they take
00:25:15
into account this person's guaranteed
00:25:17
income in retirement like social
00:25:18
security or pensions? Their withdrawal
00:25:20
needs in retirement, their human capital
00:25:22
and their future earnings potential,
00:25:24
their need, ability and willingness to
00:25:26
take on risk. I mean, the list just goes
00:25:27
on and on. And I think one possible
00:25:29
viewpoint here is well then the product
00:25:32
that tries to answer these questions and
00:25:34
and tries to be this average product, it
00:25:36
should never ever exist in the first
00:25:38
place. It's got a million holes in it
00:25:39
and the curse of average is so glaring
00:25:42
that nobody should ever put money into a
00:25:44
target date fund. I understand where
00:25:46
that argument comes from. I'm not quite
00:25:47
so severe on it. Instead, my take on it
00:25:49
is something I'm going to steal from the
00:25:51
words of John Bogle himself. He said,
00:25:53
"Target date funds are not a panacea,
00:25:56
which if you're like me and found the
00:25:57
SAT reading section a little hard, a
00:25:59
panacea is a solution or remedy for all
00:26:02
difficulties or diseases." And Bogle is
00:26:04
saying that a target date fund is not a
00:26:06
panacea. In other words, it's got flaws.
00:26:08
It's not perfect, but in the right
00:26:10
situations, it is different than saying
00:26:13
it's, you know, outright terrible. It's
00:26:15
never going to be perfect, but it also
00:26:16
doesn't have to be terrible. Imagine
00:26:18
this as an example. Uh, we've got a
00:26:20
45-year-old person who's just discovered
00:26:22
this world of personal finance and
00:26:23
investing for the very first time. This
00:26:25
person is literally at square one.
00:26:27
They're eager and ready to learn.
00:26:29
They've got some money saved in various
00:26:30
accounts, and well, it is invested
00:26:33
really poorly, even if they don't know
00:26:34
it yet. There's no cohesive investment
00:26:37
strategy or financial plan that kind of
00:26:39
defines what they're doing with their
00:26:40
money. They just have, you know, 50
00:26:42
different ticker symbols of just random
00:26:44
funds. And if that person decides on day
00:26:46
one of this their new financial planning
00:26:49
beginnings and if they decide to invest
00:26:51
in a reasonable target date fund based
00:26:53
on their future retirement date, I think
00:26:55
that's a step in the right direction.
00:26:57
It's way better than what they've been
00:26:58
doing before. Is it their set and forget
00:27:00
solution for the next 30 years? No way.
00:27:03
But is it good enough for the next year
00:27:04
or two while they read some books and
00:27:06
some blogs and catch up on some I don't
00:27:08
know maybe they catch up on some
00:27:09
podcasts? Yes. I believe that a a good
00:27:11
target date fund is the perfect kind of
00:27:13
holding pattern while that person tries
00:27:15
to figure things out. That's the curse
00:27:17
of average and and that's the reason why
00:27:19
target date funds are likely never going
00:27:21
to be perfectly designed for you in
00:27:23
particular. But I don't think we need to
00:27:24
throw out the baby with the bath water.
00:27:26
That's just my two cents. Pivoting now
00:27:28
to an important question. What should
00:27:30
you do instead of investing in a cruddy
00:27:32
target date fund? Assuming that's what
00:27:34
you've been doing in your retirement
00:27:35
account. So, going back to the Vanguard
00:27:37
funds we discussed before, there were
00:27:39
five unique investment classes inside of
00:27:41
Vanguard's funds, right? US stocks,
00:27:43
international stocks, US bonds,
00:27:45
international bonds, and then those
00:27:46
tips, inflation protected bonds. And you
00:27:49
might be tempted to recreate or build
00:27:51
your own target date fund using
00:27:53
individual index funds in your 401k.
00:27:56
five individual index funds representing
00:27:58
those five asset classes. Well, I think
00:28:00
that's a little bit overkill actually,
00:28:02
and I'm also just willing to bet that
00:28:03
most of you will not have access to all
00:28:06
five of those asset classes in your 401k
00:28:08
or 403b. But most retirement plans today
00:28:11
do offer some index funds. There have
00:28:14
been enough lawsuits over retirement
00:28:16
plan fees such that low fee index funds
00:28:18
are now usually part of the investment
00:28:21
menu. So, at a bare minimum, if you're
00:28:23
going to try to recreate your own target
00:28:24
date fund, it's really helpful if you
00:28:26
have access to just the following two
00:28:28
funds. A total US stock market index
00:28:31
fund and a total US bond market index
00:28:34
fund. Now, coming in as a really nice
00:28:36
third place would be a total
00:28:38
international stock market index fund.
00:28:40
Or combining number one and number three
00:28:42
would be a total world stock market
00:28:44
index fund including every country
00:28:46
including the USA. Now, if you don't
00:28:48
have a total US index nor a total world
00:28:51
index, but you do have an S&P 500 or
00:28:54
other large cap US index fund, that's a
00:28:57
a fine substitute. The S&P 500 captures
00:28:59
something like 3/4 of the US market and
00:29:02
about half of the global market. So, if
00:29:04
that's all you have access to, well,
00:29:05
that'll do. There are good arguments
00:29:08
both for and against investing in
00:29:10
international bonds. And then this is
00:29:12
speaking as a as an American retiree, as
00:29:14
an American investor. Now, I don't see a
00:29:16
particularly large need to do so. Uh,
00:29:19
and there are many good arguments for
00:29:20
and against investing in inflation
00:29:22
protected bonds tips. I don't think you
00:29:24
really need them in my opinion. But if
00:29:26
you have access to the world of stocks
00:29:27
via a passive index fund and at least to
00:29:30
US bonds via a passive index fund, and
00:29:32
that access comes at really, really low
00:29:34
fees, which it ought to because these
00:29:35
are index funds, then you're golden. you
00:29:37
can now create this specific asset
00:29:39
allocation specific to you to your
00:29:41
financial plan. And that allocation will
00:29:43
hopefully mirror some of what you're
00:29:45
doing or at least take into account some
00:29:47
of what you're already doing in your
00:29:48
other accounts that you own. Now, why am
00:29:51
I keeping it so simple? Well, I'm doing
00:29:53
this a little out of order, but I'm
00:29:54
going to quickly read from a recent
00:29:55
article I wrote because if you
00:29:57
understand bread, yes, the food bread,
00:29:59
you can better understand investing and
00:30:01
specifically this target date fund or
00:30:03
simple investing strategy that we're
00:30:05
talking about today. Because at its most
00:30:06
basic level, bread contains four core
00:30:09
ingredients. And each one serves this
00:30:11
specific role in the chemistry and the
00:30:13
structure of the loaf of bread. Flour
00:30:15
provides structure. There are these
00:30:17
proteins in flour that combine with
00:30:18
water to form gluten. And gluten is the
00:30:21
stretchy network that traps gas bubbles
00:30:23
and allows bread to rise. Water is the
00:30:25
second ingredient. Water hydrates the
00:30:27
flour, activates gluten formation. Yeast
00:30:29
is next. Yeast leavvens the bread, makes
00:30:32
it rise. And then salt. Salt is the
00:30:34
fourth ingredient, controlling the
00:30:35
fermentation of the yeast, improving the
00:30:37
flavor of the bread. Without salt, bread
00:30:39
is usually flat. The dough can become
00:30:41
sticky and weak. And those are the core
00:30:42
four: flour, water, yeast, and salt. And
00:30:45
granted, many people do add more
00:30:46
ingredients. Maybe some sugar or honey
00:30:48
for flavor to feed the yeast. Some fat
00:30:50
like butter, oil, or dairy for
00:30:52
tenderness and richness. Eggs can also
00:30:54
add richness and some structure. Whole
00:30:56
grains or seeds can add some flavor and
00:30:58
nutrition. The point is that bread is
00:31:00
not complex. Each ingredient though has
00:31:02
an important role to play. And what's
00:31:04
the point? Why am I talking to you about
00:31:05
bread? Well, one, it's simple. There
00:31:07
aren't dozens of ingredients. Two, every
00:31:09
ingredient has a specific job, a
00:31:11
specific domain, a reason why it's there
00:31:12
in the in the recipe. And largely, those
00:31:15
jobs don't overlap with one another. And
00:31:18
then three, in varying proportions
00:31:20
though, those very few unique
00:31:22
ingredients can create many, many
00:31:24
different outcomes in bread. Right? You
00:31:26
can reduce the flour and add water, add
00:31:29
seeds, reduce this. You can just play
00:31:30
around with the core four ingredients or
00:31:33
you can play around with the core four
00:31:34
plus a couple more ingredients in
00:31:35
different proportions and create many
00:31:37
different types of bread. I was thinking
00:31:39
about this because I was looking at a
00:31:40
prospective client's portfolio and it
00:31:42
was constructed using a 10 to 20%
00:31:44
allocation of each of the following
00:31:46
eight Vanguard funds. So VTI total which
00:31:49
is a total US stock market. VO which is
00:31:51
a S&P 500 fund. VV which is a large cap
00:31:54
fund. VUG which is a growth stock fund.
00:31:58
MGK which is a mega cap growth fund. VGT
00:32:02
information sector fund. QQQM which is a
00:32:05
NASDAQ 100 fund. And then VO which is a
00:32:07
midcap ETF. And some of you might think
00:32:10
well those are all different
00:32:11
descriptions right? Growth versus
00:32:12
information versus meggaap S&P 500
00:32:15
versus NASDAQ. They're different. It
00:32:17
seems like each fund is probably
00:32:18
providing some different diversification
00:32:20
to this person, but that's not the case.
00:32:22
This is a portfolio of various rappers,
00:32:25
but all of those rappers are basically
00:32:26
holding the same stocks. If instead I
00:32:28
put this portfolio in bread terms, it's
00:32:30
as if their recipe called for two cups
00:32:32
of bread flour, one cup of all-purpose
00:32:35
flour, 1 cup of high gluten flour, half
00:32:37
a cup of pizza flour, 1/4 cup of premium
00:32:39
organic white flour, no water, no yeast,
00:32:42
no salt, no sweetener, just flour. And
00:32:44
that's not good bread. And what I just
00:32:46
read to you wasn't a good portfolio. I
00:32:48
would much rather advocate for a
00:32:50
portfolio where every quote unquote
00:32:51
ingredient has a clear job and just one
00:32:53
job. We don't need a hundred
00:32:55
ingredients. We don't need too many
00:32:57
ingredients doing the same thing. Any
00:32:59
portfolio, but especially a retirement
00:33:01
portfolio, I think needs four vital
00:33:03
distinct ingredients. The first one is
00:33:06
appropriate risk level. Your stocks
00:33:08
versus bonds versus other assets mix
00:33:10
matters far more than which specific
00:33:12
funds you pick. This asset allocation
00:33:15
decision should be related to how much
00:33:16
money you need from the portfolio and
00:33:18
when you need it. It needs to be part of
00:33:19
the financial plan. It needs to be
00:33:21
related to the financial plan. So that's
00:33:23
the first ingredient is appropriate risk
00:33:24
level. The second ingredient is broad
00:33:26
diversification. You want to avoid
00:33:28
concentrated bets. You want to avoid
00:33:30
stockpicking. You want to avoid
00:33:32
redundant funds that own the same
00:33:33
companies. A retirement portfolio should
00:33:35
resemble the entire market. And you can.
00:33:38
You don't have to. And maybe it's not
00:33:40
always a smart thing to do, but you can
00:33:41
accomplish this with one single fund.
00:33:43
Often though, a few funds leads to
00:33:45
better results. Perhaps akin to baking
00:33:47
bread from just one pre-made box recipe
00:33:50
versus combining the ingredients
00:33:51
yourself. So that's the second one is
00:33:53
broad diversification. The third
00:33:55
ingredient, low costs. I don't think
00:33:56
there's really much of an explanation
00:33:58
needed there. And then the fourth
00:33:59
ingredient is behavior you can stick
00:34:01
with. Your portfolio should be simple
00:34:03
enough that you can understand it,
00:34:04
tolerate it during crashes, stick with
00:34:06
it for decades. Now, if you need some
00:34:08
flavor in your portfolio to make it more
00:34:10
tolerable behaviorally, so be it. Some
00:34:13
people, they need cinnamon and raisins
00:34:14
in their bread. And some investors feel
00:34:16
like they need an allocation to gold.
00:34:18
They need to own some Costco stock. They
00:34:21
need to have exposure specifically to
00:34:22
the aerospace sector. Okay, I can live
00:34:25
with it as long as that makes you not
00:34:26
jump off the ride as long as it's, you
00:34:28
know, in relatively small proportions.
00:34:30
Again, think about bread. It's one thing
00:34:32
to say half a cup of raisins in an
00:34:35
entire loaf. It's a different thing to
00:34:36
say three cups of raisins per loaf. You
00:34:39
know, as long as it's done uh tastefully
00:34:41
in small amounts, I I understand why
00:34:43
people sometimes need to add some
00:34:45
flavors to their portfolio to ensure
00:34:47
that it's a portfolio that they can
00:34:48
stick with for the long run. So again,
00:34:50
the takeaway from this bread idea is to
00:34:52
know your ingredients and know why
00:34:53
you're using them. And most investors, I
00:34:56
think, will make it more complex than it
00:34:58
really needs to be. Here's a quick ad
00:35:00
and then we'll get back to the show.
00:35:03
Serious question. Why do podcasters
00:35:05
constantly ask for ratings and reviews?
00:35:07
Yes, they do help highlight our shows to
00:35:10
new listeners. They help strangers find
00:35:11
us on Apple Podcast and Spotify. It's
00:35:14
totally true and a good reason to ask
00:35:16
for ratings and reviews. But I have
00:35:18
something more important, at least more
00:35:20
important to me. I want to know if you
00:35:22
like this stuff. I want to know if you
00:35:24
like my podcast episodes, my monologues,
00:35:26
my guests, the information I share with
00:35:28
you and the stories I tell. I want to
00:35:30
improve and make your listening more
00:35:32
enjoyable in the process. So yeah, I
00:35:34
would love to read your reviews. And
00:35:36
sure, if you throw a rating in there,
00:35:37
too, that's great. If you like what I'm
00:35:40
doing, please share it with me. It's
00:35:42
such a great feeling to read your
00:35:43
feedback. I'd love to read your review
00:35:46
or see a rating on Apple Podcast or
00:35:48
Spotify. Thank you. Back to our
00:35:51
regularly scheduled program about target
00:35:52
date funds. Of those four key
00:35:54
ingredients, which again were
00:35:55
appropriate risk level, broad
00:35:57
diversification, low cost, and behavior
00:35:59
you can stick with. I think we figured
00:36:00
out today that many target date funds
00:36:02
are too broad and too average to
00:36:04
pinpoint the appropriate risk level for
00:36:07
you specifically. So good on average
00:36:09
maybe, but not good specifically when it
00:36:11
comes to risk level. And in some cases,
00:36:13
the costs of the target date fund are
00:36:15
far from being low. As far as risk level
00:36:17
and low costs, different target date
00:36:19
funds simply don't meet muster there.
00:36:22
But I think that many target date funds
00:36:24
do provide broad diversification and
00:36:26
actually they are fantastic
00:36:28
behaviorally. One of the double-edged
00:36:29
swords of convincing people that target
00:36:31
date funds are a one-stop shop is that
00:36:33
target date funds have some of the
00:36:34
lowest amount of investor turnover of
00:36:37
any funds in existence. In other words,
00:36:39
people really do buy and hold and hold
00:36:41
and hold their target date funds. Now, I
00:36:44
think you can and should aim to create
00:36:46
your own portfolio such that it does hit
00:36:49
a risk level appropriate for your
00:36:50
financial plan and that the costs are
00:36:52
really low. If that happens to be
00:36:54
through a target date fund, okay, and
00:36:56
and we'll talk about that in a few
00:36:57
minutes, but oftentimes it isn't. So,
00:36:59
before I dive into a couple target date
00:37:01
funds that I think meet muster, let me
00:37:03
first explain to you my criteria for
00:37:05
evaluating these target date funds.
00:37:07
Again, first was fees. Lower is
00:37:09
certainly better. Uh, and as those fees
00:37:11
start to slide up from say a tenth of a
00:37:13
percent to 0.15% to 2% or higher, I'm
00:37:17
just asking the question why, you know,
00:37:19
why am I paying for a target date fund
00:37:21
that has a fee of half a percent per
00:37:23
year when Vanguard or Fidelity or
00:37:25
BlackRock are selling me an index
00:37:27
passive based target date fund that's a
00:37:29
tenth of a percent. That's, you know,
00:37:30
that's the cost of half a percent. So
00:37:33
fees are very important. Uh, my second
00:37:35
criteria was passive management. This
00:37:37
goes handin-hand with fees. But as we
00:37:38
spoke about earlier, two major causes of
00:37:40
this target date fund underperformance
00:37:42
are both the fees themselves, which will
00:37:44
always have a drag on performance, but
00:37:46
also the choice to go active, which even
00:37:48
before fees are counted, the active
00:37:50
management led to an average of uh 45
00:37:53
basis points of underperformance. So
00:37:55
passive matters a lot, at least to me.
00:37:58
Third, I consider any sort of an exotic
00:38:00
investment inside of a target date fund
00:38:02
to be more negative than positive. If a
00:38:04
target date fund, for example, has real
00:38:06
estate exposure or commodities exposure
00:38:08
or anything like that, I do think we're
00:38:10
over complicating it. And now, what I
00:38:13
didn't do at all was grade the glide
00:38:14
path itself. And the reason why is
00:38:16
because if we're trying to grade the
00:38:18
curse of average glide path over a
00:38:20
60-year investing timeline, I'm really
00:38:22
not even sure how to begin. I think
00:38:23
everyone would probably fail if we're
00:38:25
doing that. Even though we I didn't
00:38:27
grade these funds on the glide path, I
00:38:29
will comment on it in a few minutes.
00:38:31
Now, a few different uh research papers
00:38:33
site between 50 and 60 unique fund
00:38:36
families out there in the American
00:38:38
retirement landscape. Again, Vanguard is
00:38:40
one family. Fidelity has two different
00:38:42
families, passive and active. Black
00:38:44
Rockck has one family. So, there are 60
00:38:46
different families of target date funds
00:38:48
out there. I did not look at all 60, but
00:38:50
I did look at the top five because the
00:38:52
top five families of target date funds
00:38:55
own over 80% of the target date fund
00:38:58
market. They are in order. Vanguard at
00:39:01
37%, Fidelity at 14%, Troll Price at
00:39:05
11%, Black Rockck at 10%, and American
00:39:08
Funds Capital Group at 8%. In short,
00:39:12
Vanguard is best. Great on fees, fully
00:39:14
passive on the exotic investments axis.
00:39:17
I know some investors might stick up
00:39:18
their nose at International Bonds and
00:39:20
TIPS, which are both in Vanguard's
00:39:22
target date funds. Fair enough. But I've
00:39:23
seen far worse since like there is a
00:39:25
spectrum to investing here and having
00:39:27
international bonds and tips isn't that
00:39:30
bad on that spectrum. But anyway,
00:39:32
Vanguard is best. Next for me is Black
00:39:34
Rockck and their life path series of
00:39:36
target date funds. Again, great on fees,
00:39:38
fully passive. They too have a small
00:39:40
exposure to tips. They also have an
00:39:42
exposure to real estate investment
00:39:44
trusts or REITs. One interesting note is
00:39:46
that Black Rockck's life path series
00:39:48
starts at almost 100% stocks for
00:39:50
investors in their early 20s and then
00:39:52
decays down to only 20% stocks by the
00:39:55
time an investor is 85 years old. So
00:39:57
that's just an interesting glide path
00:39:59
there. Uh next in line for me is
00:40:01
Fidelity. A little jackal, a little hide
00:40:04
because their Freedom Index series, the
00:40:06
passive series, Freedom Index, it's a
00:40:09
great family of funds, but their
00:40:10
actively managed freedom series is well
00:40:13
actively managed. I also think it's a
00:40:15
little uh challenging that one one is
00:40:18
called freedom index and the other one
00:40:19
is just called freedom can be a little
00:40:21
confusing. The passive family has fees
00:40:23
of 12 basis points. Excellent. While the
00:40:25
active series costs between 50 and 75
00:40:28
basis points. The passive series is
00:40:30
everything that we want investing wise.
00:40:32
The active series has some serious
00:40:34
flavor to it and I believe it's just not
00:40:37
needed. And that brings us to a tie for
00:40:39
last between Troll Price and American
00:40:42
Funds Capital Group. Can you guess why?
00:40:44
Well, it's because they're all high fee
00:40:46
and all actively managed funds. The fees
00:40:48
are in that 50 to 60 basis point range.
00:40:51
And the portfolios have lots of
00:40:52
expensive exposures to these small
00:40:54
corners of the market with the target
00:40:56
date fund portfolio managers having
00:40:58
discretion over when to jump in and out
00:41:00
of funds, when to overweight or
00:41:02
underweight different parts of the
00:41:03
portfolio, etc., etc. All that behavior
00:41:06
that decade after decade becomes more
00:41:08
and more clear to us that it sounds good
00:41:10
in theory. You know, it sounds good to
00:41:12
have someone smart who is making lots of
00:41:14
changes that they think will be helpful
00:41:16
to us, but that research shows decade
00:41:19
after decade on average is detrimental
00:41:21
to the end investor in practice. The
00:41:24
more active management, the worse the
00:41:26
fund is likely to perform. Troll price
00:41:28
and American Fund Capital Group are two
00:41:30
easy and apparently quite popular
00:41:32
examples of target date funds where I
00:41:34
would highly recommend looking for a
00:41:36
better alternative. And again, when it
00:41:38
comes to, you know, Vanguard, Black
00:41:40
Rockck, and Fidelity's passive funds, I
00:41:42
still don't think you should lean on
00:41:44
these funds as your forever solution to
00:41:46
investing. I don't think that makes
00:41:47
sense for anybody. And the reason again
00:41:49
is the the curse of average, it's the
00:41:51
glide path problem. The idea that these
00:41:54
target date fund providers have gotten
00:41:56
your particular risk exposure correct
00:41:59
for a 60-year period or even a 10-year
00:42:02
period, probably not. So instead, if you
00:42:05
need a place to park your money while
00:42:06
you figure everything out, if you just
00:42:08
if you don't have any other really good
00:42:10
options inside your 401k except for a
00:42:12
Vanguard target date fund, then fine, by
00:42:14
all means, that's where these passively
00:42:17
managed lowcost target date funds can
00:42:20
make sense. They're never going to be
00:42:21
perfect, but they certainly can be good
00:42:23
enough. So today, we discussed what
00:42:25
target date funds are and how they work.
00:42:27
I hope you realize how significant they
00:42:29
are in the American retirement landscape
00:42:31
with many people in your life likely
00:42:32
having big sums of money in these target
00:42:35
date funds. We talked about glide paths
00:42:37
and how the one-sizefits-all might lead
00:42:38
to more problems than solutions. Mainly
00:42:41
though, we focused on the average
00:42:42
underperformance of target date funds,
00:42:44
which tend to underperform by more than
00:42:45
1% per year when compared to a very
00:42:48
similar portfolio of pure index funds.
00:42:50
We talked a little about bread, about
00:42:52
how a few simple independent ingredients
00:42:54
in the right proportions can lead to
00:42:55
many different recipes, successful
00:42:57
recipes, and quote unquote correct
00:42:58
recipes. And last, we talked about how
00:43:00
if you're unsure whether your retirement
00:43:02
plan has a good or a bad target date
00:43:04
fund, how you can make some judgments
00:43:06
for yourself. I really hope this episode
00:43:08
was helpful, maybe even eye opening. It
00:43:10
certainly was eye opening for me. So,
00:43:12
thank you for listening. Let me know
00:43:13
what you thought of this episode. Thank
00:43:15
you for subscribing, for writing in with
00:43:16
your questions and comments. Thank you
00:43:18
for listening to Personal Finance for
00:43:19
Long-Term Investors.
00:43:20
>> Thanks for tuning in to this episode of
00:43:22
Personal Finance for Long-Term
00:43:24
Investors. If you have a question for
00:43:26
Jesse to answer on a future episode,
00:43:28
send him an email over at his blog, The
00:43:31
Bestinterest. His email address is
00:43:35
Again, that's jessevestinterest.blog.
00:43:39
Did you enjoy the show? Subscribe, rate,
00:43:41
and review the podcast wherever you
00:43:43
listen. This helps others find the show
00:43:45
and invest in knowledge themselves, and
00:43:48
we really appreciate it. We'll catch you
00:43:50
on the next episode of Personal Finance
00:43:52
for Long-Term Investors. Personal
00:43:54
Finance for Long-Term Investors is a
00:43:56
personal podcast meant for education and
00:43:59
entertainment. It should not be taken as
00:44:01
financial advice and it's not
00:44:02
prescriptive of your financial
00:44:04
situation.

Episode Highlights

  • Target Date Funds: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly
    Explore the world of target date funds and their surprising underperformance.
    “The average target date fund is much worse than you might think.”
    @ 00m 08s
    April 22, 2026
  • The Cost of Underperformance
    1% underperformance could eliminate 44% of an investor's wealth over 60 years.
    “1% underperformance could eliminate 44% of an investor's wealth.”
    @ 12m 19s
    April 22, 2026
  • The Illusion of Choice
    Many retirement plans only offer one family of target date funds, limiting options.
    “Most retirement plans only have one single family of target date funds.”
    @ 23m 31s
    April 22, 2026
  • The Curse of Average
    Designing for the average user leads to mediocre products that don't meet individual needs.
    “Designing for the average creates a product that ends up being mediocre for everybody.”
    @ 24m 23s
    April 22, 2026
  • Bread and Investing
    Understanding the simplicity of bread can help clarify investment strategies.
    “If you understand bread, you can better understand investing.”
    @ 29m 55s
    April 22, 2026
  • The Importance of Feedback
    Podcasters seek ratings and reviews not just for visibility, but to improve their content.
    “It’s such a great feeling to read your feedback.”
    @ 35m 42s
    April 22, 2026
  • Understanding Target Date Funds
    Target date funds are significant in American retirement, but they often underperform compared to index funds.
    “Target date funds tend to underperform by more than 1% per year.”
    @ 42m 44s
    April 22, 2026

Episode Quotes

  • An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.
    Target Date Funds: More Flawed Than Advertised (E137)
  • 1% underperformance could eliminate 44% of an investor's wealth.
    Target Date Funds: More Flawed Than Advertised (E137)
  • Those are the two biggest culprits of underperformance here today.
    Target Date Funds: More Flawed Than Advertised (E137)
  • Target date funds are not a panacea.
    Target Date Funds: More Flawed Than Advertised (E137)
  • Know your ingredients and know why you’re using them.
    Target Date Funds: More Flawed Than Advertised (E137)
  • Target date funds tend to underperform by more than 1% per year.
    Target Date Funds: More Flawed Than Advertised (E137)

Key Moments

  • Investment Knowledge00:22
  • Target Date Soup18:00
  • Curse of Average24:14
  • Bread Analogy31:04
  • Four Vital Ingredients33:01
  • Know Your Ingredients34:50
  • Feedback Matters35:42
  • Target Date Fund Insights42:44

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

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