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welcome to the best interest podcast where we believe Benjamin Franklin's advice that an investment in knowledge
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pays the best interest both in finances and in your life every episode teaches you personal finance and investing in
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simple terms now here's your host Jesse Kramer hello everybody and welcome to
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episode 6060 of the best interest podcast my name is Jesse crank got a cool episode for you today we have
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on a pretty famous guest his name is Nick mauli Nick is uh a writer an author probably one of the biggest personal
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finance authors on the internet right now Nick writes a lot about data-backed topics his blog is called of dollars and
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data and so he focuses a lot on the numbers but he does a really good job of mixing the numbers with uh some of the
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personal sides of personal finance some of the psychological sides of personal finance and before we get to Nick we're
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going to talk about a topic today that really intrigues me it's something I write about and talk about a lot it's
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the idea of false proxies and specifically false proxies that deceive your finances a false proxy is it's a
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misleading indicator something that maybe doesn't align with a desired outcome that you thought it originally
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did a quick and easy example might be um engine sound being a false proxy for vehicle speed while a sports car is both
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loud and Fast we've all seen junky beat up cars that are incredibly loud but
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slow Seth Goden is a very famous writer and Seth Goden writes quote we need proxies you're not allowed to read the
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book before you buy it or taste the ketchup before you leave the store we rely on labels and cultural cues to give
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us a hint about what to expect we do judge a book and a condiment by its cover all the time end quote
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proxies like the proxies that Goden was talking about the cover of a book the label on ketchup proxies are shortcuts
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and when accurate proxies are not only useful but they're really vital proxies
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save us time they save us effort they save brain space helping us attain desired results with just a fraction of
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the exertion but false proxies can lead us down dangerous paths like I was saying before a false proxy is a a
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misleading or inaccurate indicator of achievement or progress or Talent you know it could be uh some sort of metric
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or Benchmark it could be a societal standard that doesn't really align with the true purpose or desired outcome that
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we're seeking now very famously there's a really cool false proxy story that
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that some of you are probably familiar with it's the story of Moneyball right
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so back in the 90s Billy Bean and Paul De podesta they had an epiphany as they were trying to guide the baseball team
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the Oakland Athletics they really realized Billy Bean and Paul deep podesta realized that baseball talent
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and traditional Talent analysis it was full of these false proxies relying way too heavily on subjective judgments and
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outdated statistics and and they realized a few simple logical truths the first one baseball games are won by
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scoring more runs than the opponent does then the second one the most important onfield metrics therefore are those that
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are most likely to add runs for your team or reduce runs for the other team and some traditional baseball metrics
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were were highly valued in terms of the way that teams were paying players to play for them despite having very little
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impact on scoring runs or preventing the other team from scoring runs so those right there those were false proxies it
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was a shortcut that everyone else was using because they thought that it led to more wins when really the Oakland A's
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the Moneyball guys realized these are bad statistics They Don't Really lead to
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more wins these so-called false proxies incorrectly indicated the ability to win
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games but other more overlooked statistics that were barely valued ended up being very highly correlated to
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scoring runs and therefore very highly correlated to winning games so what the Moneyball guys did was they avoided the
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false proxies they let other people chase those players and instead they focused their money on
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obtaining cheap players who actually led to them scoring more runs and and winning more games a very simple example
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of this is batting average batting average in baseball has some correlation to scoring runs but as Baseball fans
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know a walk is equally as good as a single it's exactly the same outcome but
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walks are ignored by batting average they're simply not included in a player's batting average so so batting
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average isn't the greatest proxy for offensive Talent especially when compared to the far superior statistic
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that's called on base percentage which does include walks so Billy Bean and Paul De podesta
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they built a baseball team the Oakland A's by identifying and then ignoring baseball's false proxies Michael Lewis
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famously wrote about their story in Moneyball and quite literally changed Sports and the business world to a large
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extent forever leaders in all arenas are opening their eyes to Prior false proxies correcting them and then
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ultimately finding more efficient solutions to their problems personal finance and investing are one such Arena
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so here are some of the most common false proxies that I see and then the true proxy needed to correct the old
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misconceptions the first one salary equals wealth now there's a certain correlation between salary and wealth
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because after all earning more salary can can only help your journey to improved wealth but one of the most
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common false proxies I see is drawing an equivalency between salary and wealth show me two families one earns
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$300,000 and spends all $300,000 the other family earns far less maybe only $150,000 but also spends less they only
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spend $100,000 per year saving the other 50 the first family will never be wealthy they earn 300,000 and they spend
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300,000 but for the second family wealth is inevitable despite only being on half
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the salary and the reason why is because they they save $50,000 per year wealth is not solely determined by how much you
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earn but more importantly by how much you spend regardless of a high salary if someone consistently spends beyond their
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means they won't be able to accumulate significant wealth or as friend of the
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blog Morgan hell writes Wealth is what you don't see all right here's the second false
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proxy what is your retirement number you've probably seen commercials like this how much money do you need to
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retire at age 55 is it $1 million $2 million who knows well how about this question if you're age 40 how much
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retirement money should you have saved is it 2x your salary or 4X your wife's
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salary is it is it a million dollars by age 40 I can almost guarantee you've
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seen proxies like this for retirement numbers lots of firms share their numbers like this these generic rules of
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thumb that are supposed to apply to millions of people at the same time but I believe that these numbers are almost
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always misleading false proxies they're a bit like a batting average in baseball
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it's not that they're a terrible proxy but they ignore Vital Information
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because how can we possibly lump all 60y olds into the same bucket and suggest that for them eight times their starting
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salary is the perfect savings amount to have it's way too one size fits all and
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similarly how can we suggest that the 4% rule or the 3.5% rule or whatever it is
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is the proper withdrawal rate for all people the 4% rule is largely a false proxy or at least a bad proxy in the
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place of proper true Financial Planning and there are a couple reasons why the first one most people misunderstand and
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misuse the 4% rule it's far more nuanced than the way that the average person
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online tres to use it and the second reason why the 4% rule is just as likely to quadruple your retirement Nest Egg as
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it is to lose a single Dollar in other words it is way too conservative in most cases but in a very small number of
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cases the 4% Ru actually fails so in some cases way too conservative in most cases way too conservative but in some
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cases it's actually too aggressive flexibility in other words has to be a vital part of insurance uring the 4%
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Rule's success you need to be willing to actually break the 4% rule in order to
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use it correctly or at least to use it optimally take for example a typical public school teacher I help out a bunch
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of them at work at my wealth management firm and in New York a teacher approaching retirement likely earns
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something like $70 to $90,000 in salary if a particular teachers total monthly bills are say $5,000 per month or
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$60,000 per year then the 4% rule dictates this teacher needs $1.5 million saved in order to safely retire $1.5
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million that's a lot of saving on an $80,000 teacher's salary but we are
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missing something vitally important here what about social security for example a
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teacher working a full career will likely retire with $2,000 to $2,500 in monthly Social Security payments and we
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can't forget pensions at least here in New York New York State teachers at full
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retirement they earn 60% % of their salary as a pension in perpetuity so in this particular scenario that's another
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$3500 to $4,500 per month combined our teachers fixed income Social Security plus pension is in the range of 5,500 to
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$7,000 per month easily covering their monthly retirement spending needs of only $5,000 per month conceivably they
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could retire with Z saved and simply live off that fixed income I'd probably
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conservative ly nudge them towards some sort of retirement savings but that original $1.5 million savings goal
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detailed by the 4% rule that's ridiculous in this particular scenario and we haven't even touched on important
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questions like how much will healthc care cost during retirement what if there's a market crash right after you
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retire what assumptions are you using for market returns uh will you have any dependence relying on you to support
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them how will your spending change as you age how flexible will you be as your Market performance changes the 4% rule
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doesn't really ask any of those kind of questions the 4% rule therefore is a
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false proxy is it a useful tool to get started sure it's useful but it's a
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false proxy for full financial planning that's what's needed for True retirement
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analysis Okay the third proxy third false proxy that short-term results are an indicator of long-term results it's
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one of the oldest tropes in the investing world that short-term success is somehow an indicator of long-term
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success but short-term success is a it's a null proxy at best and it's a false
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proxy at worst for short-term success to lead to long-term success we need repeatability that's the key word here
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repeatability we need many consecutive short terms to create one longterm and that kind of repeatability it happens
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out there in the world it happens when skill exists repeatability is a Hallmark of skill but in study after study the
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results of active investment choices are shown to express more luck than skill short-term investing results are in
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other words a false proxy for long-term investing results if you're curious we
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dive into that in detail in uh episode 56 of the best interest podcast the fourth false proxy that
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confidence equals knowledge on a recent episode of my other podcast the trusted partner podcast John told
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us yeah you know uh I have a I have a section of the book about experts and I go through not just investing but a
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another number of different areas where a person's ability to forecast or predict the future is inversely related
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with their confidence in their forecast so it's this Paradox where the people
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you want to hear that will have a forecast are the ones that won't give you one because they're not
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confident confid confidence is routinely used as a proxy for knowledge for for correctness but in terms of investing
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predictions confidence is usually inversely correlated to correctness confidence is a false proxy for
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correctness the smartest people in the room instead say I'm not really sure I'm
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not that confident that's why I'm diversifying that's why I'm hedging my
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bets being smart enough to say I don't know is infinitely better than being overconfident and losing millions of
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while you do so that's a hard pill for many people to swallow and the fifth false proxy that I
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see all the time is that complexity equals superiority I see too many people thinking that complexity in finance must
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be a signal of superiority the more complicated an idea the better that idea must be and that's simply false
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complexity is a false proxy for superiority in fact if you're looking for a proxy for superiority I'd argue
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that simplicity is one of the best proxies there's no secret sauce in finance there's no secret sauce in
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investing simpler usually means cheaper and cheaper is better take iida ebit T da which every kindergartener out there
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knows stands for earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization kidding about the
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kindergarten joke you kind of have to be in the finance or business world to have
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heard of iida in the first place let alone to know what it stands for well it stands for again earnings
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before interest tax depreciation and amortization it's a earnings metric that
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businesses use now ibaa has been a a hot metric used by stock analysts all over the world for I don't know 10 15 20
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years but what do Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett the kings of simple investing think about iida how anybody
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can turn that into something they use as a metric that the talks about earnings is beyond me Charlie yeah I think you
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would understand any president presentation using the word eida if every time you saw that word you just
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substituted the phrase earnings I knew he'd do it sooner or later [Applause]
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folks and the he made it through the morning but never all day most of the time complexity is just don't
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let false proxies stunt your personal finance growth invest in knowledge instead
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[Music] [Applause] [Music] all right and now we're going to bring on Nick muli as promised Nick is a data
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scientist a writer and a personal finance expert he's the creator of of dollars and data a personal finance and
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investing blog one of the best on the internet I may say and uh Nick is also the Chief Operating Officer of RIT Holtz
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wealth management Nick is also the author of the book just keep buying one of the most popular and influential
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personal finance books and investing books published in the last few years all right Nick thanks for sitting down
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with us on the best interest podcast you know Nick in your book just keep buying
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I wanted to start with this quote it's something you wrote you said those who
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know do those that understand teach so you're right now one of the one of the
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biggest personal finance teachers probably on Earth if we really look at it so can you walk us through your
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Journey from at one point when you knew nothing about this stuff to now where you have this deep understanding and
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you're teaching all of us yeah so when I graduated college you know I just like most other people who
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like when you graduate high school graduate college start entering the workforce you know I didn't never took a
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personal finance class I never had any idea of what to do next like I knew certain things about like investing like
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okay I know I need to do like a Roth IRA like I KN I'd heard these words and
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stuff but didn't really understand any and trust me I went to very good schools
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that wasn't the issue it was just like we never got exposed to it and we we never really taught it so I had to
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really kind of teach myself a lot of stuff and I think that's what a lot of people end up doing that's why they're
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listening to podcasts like this that's why they're out there consuming content
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because if we had already learned this like no one's learning like how to do
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long division there's no like the long division podcast because that was taught
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to us right we don't have to sit around and like how do how do you do it what do
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you mean carry the one like that no one does that because we know that right it's taught to us so I think one of the
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things for me is just it was a learning process and so for me A lot of times I just was trying to learn a lot of stuff
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early on and I had all these ideas but I didn't have an outlet for them yet and
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then finally I realized in like late 2016 I'm like you know what maybe I should start writing about this and
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we'll see kind of where it goes and there's all these different ideas I had
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and you know I got better over time like even my early writing is just definitely
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not as good as the stuff I'm putting out now and so just kind of going through
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that process of like thinking through what are my core ideas what are the core tenants I believe and how are those
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changing over time and just spending a lot of time I think a lot of it too is just questioning I was told for example
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you know you should max out your 401K that's just what I was just told everyone says it it was almost just
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that's the lay of the land and so like as soon as I heard this I believed it
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too and then one day I said you know maybe like is this actually worth it let's run the numbers let's and like
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depending on what assumptions it can be it cannot be and so I think that's the
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type of stuff I try to do is say let's go back to like first principles in terms of like what is actually true and
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let's let's analyze those questions and those topics and then go from there so
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that's my goal and I think even the stuff I put in the book one day some of that will be outdated won't be good
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anymore because data changes people change we get more research and and that affects things so that's the idea here
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is like you know I'm trying my best but like if the information changes I have
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to change my mind you know right right one thing you do really well I I try to do it my hope is that others in our
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position try to do it too is I mean the rules of thumb usually are pretty good but there's always an exception and and
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the more you understand where that rule of thumb came from the more uh you're
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equipped to to understand if the exception applies to you and I find that's one of my biggest struggles
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sometimes when it comes to either writing podcasting working with clients whatever it may be is taking someone who
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has this preconceived notion of a rule of thumb and then saying actually you might be the exception and here's why do
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you find that I mean it comes across in your writing I feel like yeah I mean that's a lot of a lot of the stuff
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especially arguments on the internet you're going to get arguments on Twitter
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are because of this stuff it's because you'll say something like most people
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with portfolios are over Saving right and I think that's generally true most
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people reading my blog stuff like that are probably over saving relative they'll be like well 40% of Americans
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don't even have a portfolio I'm like well I said people with portfolios but
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that that doesn't get that gets missed right gets kind of glossed over right
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and so like yes there's 40% of Americans that don't really save money right it's
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a it's a rough calculus you look at it it's not great but those people generally are probably not reading my
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blog they're not my audience I'm not saying that we we shouldn't try to do
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things to help them but that's a very different conversation than talking about the whole you know this idea of
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die with zero this idea of you know maybe we're spending maybe we're saving
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too much maybe we should spend more and like try to live our the best life now like there's like these trade-offs that
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people aren't talking about and I think bringing these things up these topics
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you know which Bill Perkins done a great job with um and just kind of expanding on them I think is is useful because the
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the we always hear a retirement crisis you're not going to have enough money
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you're going to run out of money no one ever says your wealth's going to grow
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more than you could ever imagine no one ever brings that up but statistically for those that actually have portfolio
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saving doing well that's the more likely outcome at least based on history let's
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let's dive into that a little bit more I I can tell Nick in preparation for this
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interview I've listened to a few other podcasts you've done I can tell you're a
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fan of Bill Perkins die with zero I haven't talked about it too much so maybe we can start with just really a
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quick synopsis of that book but then also I know you have some awesome data that supports Bill Perkins thought
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process as far as portfolios continuing to grow throughout retirement so maybe we can segue into that topic too yeah so
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Bill Perkins main idea and I don't I'm trying my best to summarize this is like
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most people at least who are saving a lot of money you're probably over saving
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and you end up dying with a lot of money you actually look and you look at the data of you know people in their 60s and
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I I put this in the book I can't remember the exact figures now it's like
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someone in their 60s the average um bequest or how much they leave behind is like $250,000 in their 70s it's like 300
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and their 80s it's like 350 it just goes up it's basically you see it increasing
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right and so what that I mean tells me at least is like people are dying with all this extra money that they didn't
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you saying oh give it to my kids but like by the time your quote kids get it if you're 80 your kids might be in their
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60s might be like late 50s like it would probably been better to give them not 350,000 when they were 60 maybe you
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could have given them a 100,000 when they were 35 or 40 right and that could have had a much bigger impact on their
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lives and I've even asked people on Twitter this I said would you rather have this much money at age 30 or this
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much at age 40 and I'm going to compound at 8% per year and I've even done it
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where I lower the amount early so I'm like even if you got a 12% 10 15% everyone wants the money earlier
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everyone wants it earlier so we all want the money earlier yet all of us are not
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going to give the money earlier it's a very weird scenario where're like oh no
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I'm not going to give my kids when they're 30 I'm not going to give them
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100,000 no I'm gonna wait till I'm dead and when they're you know 55 or 60 then
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they'll get their 250 300,000 right or whatever it is right and the the numbers
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aren't what's important it's this idea that there's all this wasted life energy
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is what he calls it right was Life Energy and I like and here's the funny part I read that after I wrote just keep
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buying so if I had actually read that before I would have maybe Incorporated those ideas and I think I had come to
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that same conclusion in a different way I'd never heard his philosophy I think
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his a little extreme I don't think we need to die with zero actually like I think it's kind of risky however I think
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he's directionally accurate I think there's too many people who are on the
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other side of it and and so getting back towards like a die closer to zero or die
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with like half of what you expected to die with maybe that's like the better
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way to go about it and one of my favorite studies on this Michael kit e a study 6040 portfolio using the 4% rule
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standard thing like over a 30-year time period right if you start with a portfolio of a million dollars that the
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portfolio Size Doesn't Matter but let's just say you start with a portfolio of
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$1 million after 30 years using a 6040 pulling 4% a year you're more likely to
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have $4 million than to have less than a million right you're more likely to have
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quadrupled your balance than to be below your starting balance right and that's
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with you pulling money out and living 4% a year adjusting for inflation all the standard stuff right and so I think that
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shows like oh my gosh like it's much more likely that your portfolio is just
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going to explode in value than it is going to like go to zero right so and people don't think about that and I
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think it's something like five and seven retirees are living on less than what
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their portfolio is generating right of those that have portfolios right so they get this money or they or they get they
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have a required minimum distribution which they have to take out the government says you have to take this
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money and they don't spend it they end up reinvesting it so many rmds are reinvested and that's the crazy part
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right or they just live off you know even though you could use a 4% rule the fact is most people don't use it most
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people live off the income on their portfolios plus Social Security that's how it works I've looked at this and I I
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actually found out most of this after I even wrote the book too it's like as
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I've kept digging into this you know and it's like people just do very basic
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things based on their income they live their life based on their income so like hey I'm getting 1,500 bucks a month from
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Social Security and I'm going to get you know let's say my investments make me on
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average 1500 a month then I live off three grand a month period they don't say oh I'm going to pull out 4% plus
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the, 1500 a month no they don't do that they just say that's my income that's
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what I live off and they live off that and they just let the principal just keep growing and they just keep living
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off the income and generally if the principal is growing their income is going up over time right this is outside
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of the cola adjustments for Social Security Etc but that's the shocking part and that's kind of the big
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highlevel idea here of like what's happening and I think it's going to continue now of course those people that
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only have social security don't have that luxury but for a lot of people that
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have portfolios you'd be surprised how many are seeing their wealth just grow
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beyond what they expected yeah I mean we we both know I think many listeners know
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or at least have heard of the concept that it's hard to change from a net saver to a net spender and that's
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essentially what a lot of retirees have to do they have to flip the switch at some point and say I am G to start
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drawing down on my principal and start you know enjoying the fruits of my labor over the last 40 years but what you've
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just pointed out Nick is that most people don't end up doing that they don't actually draw on the principal
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alone they only love off the the interest or the dividends the income that their portfolio produces one thing
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that actually I I think I was inspired just because I was listening to maybe you on like the choose fi podcast
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earlier this week I was going back to that old episode and I actually thought to myself I'm sure the data is readily
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available if not available it should be relatively easy to actually throw it into a spreadsheet or Python and do it
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but I would want to see how say like that Michael Kit's study I would want to
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divide the 4% rules historical results into like desiles because you know that okay the
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4% rule it's successful something like 96 or 98% of the time in the historical
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back test so two or 4% of people run out of money and that's bad but then what
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about the other 96% of people I mean we know that the overwhelming majority of those 96% of people die with more money
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than they retired with right yeah yeah so I don't exactly know what the numbers
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are and it's not the number of people that run out of money it's the number of
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time frames where you run out of money right so it's like if you started retirement like 1928 or something and
00:26:40
then you went right into the Great Depression and like there are certain scenarios like that or you start
00:26:45
retiring think in like 1910 or something and then by the time that the Great Depression hits you're almost wiped out
00:26:50
like there are these weird scenarios I can't remember exactly which ones but
00:26:53
that's how that type of stuff comes about right it's usually like a very bad
00:26:57
scenario you going into that right so that's where it happen so it would be like a whole cohort of people would be
00:27:02
out at once it's not like one person so that's where those percentages come from
00:27:06
but yeah I agree with you I don't know where those desiles are and that's a
00:27:10
that's a great question I mean it's also there's so many assumptions are you 6040
00:27:14
or you 8020 like what you know what your treasury is going to pay in the future there's a lot of stuff goes into that
00:27:18
but yeah I think you're right though in the sense that you know You' be surprised at how many people end up with
00:27:23
more than their principal bounds after you know pulling 4% a year which you know depending on the size you're could
00:27:27
be a decent chunk of money now let's go back to your book for a second so just
00:27:31
keep buying was I'm actually before I even get to my question was it the top
00:27:35
selling investing book or at least newly published investing book in 2022 it had
00:27:39
to be close I don't know any I'm trying to think of what other investing books
00:27:43
came out in 2022 like there were some that I know of but like I don't know if
00:27:47
there was I mean technically like I I was not the top selling investment book in 2022 because there's old books that
00:27:53
have already that were released before yeah Rich Dad Poor Dad colle money those outs sold me easily but of new releases
00:28:00
I think it might have been I don't know with certainty I can't think of another
00:28:04
book that came out but I mean there weren't that many investing books that came out like every year there's not too
00:28:08
many investing books that come out at least that I know of because like they're out maybe someone does it as
00:28:12
like a maybe it's very technical it's very Niche like it's a very good book
00:28:16
but it's like it's not for a a broad-based audience like mine was right so that's something else to think about
00:28:20
as well it's like someone could put all like the best technical analysis manual
00:28:24
and it sold a ton in like a very small little sect and maybe that's a very good
00:28:27
book but we would never hear about it because we're not really looking for that so that's another thing to keep in
00:28:32
mind but yeah so it's done well so far I I you know it's actually surprised me a
00:28:35
bit how well it's done and after writing I'm like now there's so much stuff I'd
00:28:38
add to it right it's like there's got to be a second addition at some point I
00:28:41
want to add so much to it especially all the stuff I've learned and so I think
00:28:44
it's it's it's an ongoing process coincidentally though I've heard
00:28:49
you talk about this it was released during one of the worst years for investors in in a while I mean the 6040
00:28:55
portfolio did not do well bonds had a historically bad year and I saw some critics I'm sure you saw some too who
00:29:02
said like oh just keep buying of course it's released in a year it's it was a
00:29:07
sign of top it was a sign of ere exuberance and froth but can you explain to our
00:29:12
listeners why those critics actually have the exact wrong conclusion about the message just keep buying and and and
00:29:19
the smart long-term investing approaches in just keep buying yeah I mean because
00:29:24
they didn't actually read the book they just read the title and come up with
00:29:27
what they think everything is like oh everything they think my assumption is like the stock market goes up 8% a year
00:29:32
every year no matter what which is obviously not true I discuss this at length in the book why there's many bad
00:29:38
periods in stock market history I know basically all of them even the international markets I could just ring
00:29:42
them off if I have to and tell you but like the point there isn't that like oh
00:29:46
markets always go up so you don't have nothing to worry about no it's like
00:29:49
there are going to be very bad periods there's going to be a bad decade you know we could be in one possibly right
00:29:54
now who knows right but like there're going to be a very long periods where people are going to lose money it's
00:29:59
going to happen again I guarantee it I don't know when but it will happen and
00:30:03
so just being prepared for that and just saying like hey even over the Long Haul
00:30:06
even over fiveyear period 10 year 20 year periods you know you will start to see you know things turn around I
00:30:11
hopefully at some point five years not necessarily 10 years not even necessarily but hopefully by 20 years we
00:30:15
start to see stuff turn around and the other thing too is a lot of this is done in snapshots every time people talk
00:30:21
about investing they're always looking at a snapshot so if you look at like the
00:30:25
the big example is Japan 1989 you have a CH of that you can be like look at this
00:30:28
thing it's been 30 years I mean with dividends it's technically above its
00:30:32
high but without dividends like just the index level is so below its high from 89
00:30:35
so you like wow that's over 30 years and you would have lost money it's like not
00:30:39
technically true also that assumes you invested all your money at one point in time you didn't buy over time and so in
00:30:44
the book I actually show this someone invested I just did like a dollar a day into the Japanese stock market since
00:30:49
1980 so I even went a little bit before the peak I didn't just start at the peak
00:30:52
that Technic would have made my argument even better but even before the peak you
00:30:55
start that and you would see that like that person technically right now has made money I mean they haven't made a
00:31:01
lot of money but they've kind of kept pace with inflation barely you know and
00:31:03
so one of the worst markets of all time Japanese stock markets since 1989 and yet you kept pace with inflation or
00:31:10
pretty close to it right and so that's my counter it's like don't get me wrong
00:31:13
there's a ton of risk and yes there was a a lot of better options but like even
00:31:15
in this nightmare scenario right you still could have done okay and right and the thing I'm preaching is
00:31:20
diversification I don't think anyone should just be in one Equity market and
00:31:23
that's it I think you should have a broad-based ownership and if you had done that you would have obviously you
00:31:28
wouldn't be having the highs that we've had in the US Stock Market because you
00:31:30
don't International stocks which haven't done as well but you wouldn't have the
00:31:32
lows when things crash right so something to keep in mind is like over the Long Haul there is going to be you
00:31:38
know Peaks and valleys here but in a bare Market is fine when you when the stuff will come back eventually you know
00:31:44
it's a question of when and and and the question is like is the world going to
00:31:48
keep producing value right is that is that going to happen are you are you long Humanity or not and I think I'm
00:31:54
long Humanity at some some portion of humans are going to solve very difficult problems is going to create value and so
00:31:59
that's the thing I try to focus on and going back a couple sentences you're focus on diversification Nick and
00:32:06
one thing I like that you talk a lot about it's not just Geographic diversification it is important you talk
00:32:12
about that you also talk about asset level diversification meaning you know stocks bonds Alternatives real estate
00:32:18
but you focus a lot I focus a lot and I think any good investor focuses a lot on
00:32:22
maybe you could call it time diversification or dollar cost averaging and I think a big part of just keep
00:32:28
buying is this idea that UPS Downs good news bad news you can continue dollar cost averaging into the
00:32:35
market yeah you're buying over time and as a result you aren't no one payment no
00:32:41
one investment is going to make or break you basically and that's the idea and so
00:32:45
that's why I even say someone who's been like I just ran this yesterday like
00:32:49
someone who's been investing a 100 bucks a month since the beginning of 2022
00:32:53
right which is one of the worst markets we've had in the last few decades as you
00:32:56
said so since the beginning of 2022 100 bucks a month right now you're up about
00:33:00
10% or you know $200 not not a lot of money not going to lie but I mean you've
00:33:04
only put in you know what is it 18 months you put in 1,800 bucks and you have around two grand right now that's
00:33:10
roughly how the math would work out so that's I mean still something I'd rather
00:33:14
have that like you know it's not great and on an inflation adjusted basis you're up like maybe 3% I think so
00:33:19
you're not up 10 you're up only three two or 3% so it's not great but like
00:33:23
considering how bad everything was like I think it's a I'd put that as like a
00:33:27
pretty good win you know considering how bad everything has been so I think that's the thing to think about like
00:33:31
it's very easy like oh just keep buying and like you can look at this as like oh
00:33:35
signs of the top and all that but at the same time like that's not what this is
00:33:39
like this is a historical analysis based on a lot of stuff I could have written this book five years before I mean
00:33:43
assuming I had the data you know and all that I would have written the same book
00:33:46
like the book would not have changed right right only some pieces of the book like that historical piece wouldn't
00:33:50
change just certain like as we get research about human psychology and stuff like that maybe how I approach
00:33:56
certain topics might change like certain personal finance topics but the investing part I think will not change
00:34:00
much if at all into the future I agree with that too you reminded me when you just mentioned the person who was
00:34:07
investing say $100 a month since the beginning of 2022 I threw a chart and I think I wrote
00:34:12
a blog post about it I'll have to go back and see but the very least I made a
00:34:15
chart recently that looked at someone who did dollar cost average from 2003 until today 2008 till today a few
00:34:22
different dates in between until today and granted someone who started investing say in 2018 dollar cross
00:34:29
averaging $100 a month their annualized performance as of today is maybe only 45% per year over the last five years so
00:34:38
not great but still beeding inflation but then if I go back to 03 and I think that's the lesson that I took away from
00:34:45
this if I look at someone who started dollar crost averaging in 2003 as of you know March 09 the bottom of the great
00:34:53
financial crisis their annualized performance was about NE 15% per year oh from there to the bottom from 03 to the
00:35:00
bottom yeah so six years and they're sitting there like what am I doing wrong
00:35:04
I am down 14 or 15% per year yet if they had continued dollar cost averaging till
00:35:10
today their total IR over the whole run is about 8% per year which is what we'd
00:35:18
expect which is pretty good and so it's just this powerful message of even if
00:35:22
you find yourself underwater today because you kind of had bad luck and when you started in in over the last
00:35:27
five years if you zoom out long enough and if you continue doing this smart long-term dollar cost averaging you're
00:35:34
going to end up in a pretty good place yeah that is that assumes diversification for the record if you
00:35:39
bought in a single stock and you're hoping that thing's to turn around it
00:35:42
may but it may not so like this is a broad-based diversified portfolio especially index funds that are where
00:35:49
the companies are changing over time the the top companies in 03 are very different from the top companies today
00:35:54
so that's a 20-year period so just thinking about like and that naturally it's like a natural
00:35:59
you know creative destruction process right some some companies are brought in that are rising and the companies that
00:36:04
aren't doing well that are falling off they get dropped out and that's a
00:36:06
natural thing that happens through committee selection and standard and pores Etc but we benefit from that as
00:36:11
investors we don't have to do any of that research or anything we kind of just free ride off of that and I think
00:36:15
for very cheap and I think that's wored it so some people would say you need the
00:36:19
equal portfolio there's a lot of different ways to do this and the results will vary a little bit but we're
00:36:24
talking marginal differences over the long run it's not like and equal weight
00:36:27
has outperformed a market cap weighted portfolio by like 5% a year no it's it's
00:36:32
nothing like that there's certain periods where outperformed certain period are underperform so on net I
00:36:36
think it's mostly a wash and I don't try to focus on those little things it's
00:36:39
just like own income producing assets grow your income and focus on owning income producing assets that's the the
00:36:45
main takeaway from the book and and my the stuff I'm arguing one quote that you have in the
00:36:51
book it's from Jeremy seagull who's you know a legendary investing mind right
00:36:56
and the quote is is fear has a greater grasp on human action than does the impressive weight of historical evidence
00:37:03
so a very powerful quote but can you kind of help us unpack that a little bit Yeah fear is a greater grasp on human
00:37:11
action than does the impressive weight of historical evidence and the whole idea there is that you know now that we
00:37:17
have data and we can kind of see into the past in a way and how things performed in ways that we didn't we
00:37:23
couldn't really do like back in like the 20s and 30s we have a better understanding of you know how markets
00:37:27
behave and human psychology hasn't evolved all that much in the last few hundred years if or even thousand years
00:37:34
probably maybe maybe in a thousand years last few hundred definitely not much so
00:37:38
people are still going to be you know you're going to feel fearful you're
00:37:41
going to get greedy you're going to you know you're going to have all those
00:37:44
things because that hasn't evolved much but the data and the evidence has has
00:37:48
moved very quickly right and so seeing that difference and realizing like hey you're going to feel afraid and that's
00:37:53
fine but like realizing that like evidence and looking at what's happened in history that's a better Guide to the
00:37:59
Future than your brain and and it's and its evolutionary you know operating procedure how how you stand your
00:38:05
standard operating procedure as a human is not the best way is doesn't work as
00:38:09
an investor we weren't made to be long-term investors we really were not you know humans if you think about
00:38:14
nomadic tribes and things like that we were looking maybe a year in advance thinking about seasons and stuff like
00:38:19
that we weren't saying oh I wonder if this corn was going to be 20 years from
00:38:23
now like when we were agriculture all that that wasn't the thinking at time and so it's a very different mindset
00:38:28
it's not something we evolved with so you have to use other things like evidence and data and saying hey I'm
00:38:34
probably going to be alive 20 30 years from now which is not something that necessarily would have been true of a
00:38:39
middle-aged human you know a thousand 5,000 10,000 years ago right so just realizing that you know your brain is
00:38:45
not equipped to do this stuff it's not really made for it at all so because of
00:38:49
that when you see oh Market's dropping you start to get fearful you start to
00:38:52
want to sell you want to get out of it and and I understand that I I think it's
00:38:56
very natural to feel that but you have to kind of fight that urge with evidence and so that's that's what the quote
00:39:00
represents and it's something that I think you do a good job in your writing
00:39:04
Nick is I mean the blog of course is of dollars and data everything you do tends
00:39:09
to be very datab backed and you present lots of data in your writing yet it's
00:39:14
important and I think you recognize the importance that you keep the human readers in mind so I'm just curious do
00:39:20
you use any sort of like filters or thought processes when you're writing to
00:39:24
make sure that the advice you give is not only applicable and backed by data but just executable by our sometimes
00:39:32
irrational human Minds yeah so I try to actually look at how much of an impact some of this has
00:39:38
so for example one of the big things that people have issues with there's this idea of you know lump suming an
00:39:42
investment let's say you just let's say you sold your business or you got an
00:39:45
inheritance right let's say you got $100,000 a good chunk of money right and
00:39:49
so you're like oh do I put this all into the market now or do I slowly like average it in over time right and so I'm
00:39:54
going to call that averaging in some people call that dollar cost averaging that is not the technical definition but
00:39:59
I don't want to get into that so let's just say do you want to put it in now or
00:40:01
do you want to put it in over time those are the two options right and most people have a big problem with putting
00:40:06
it in now and because they think what if the market crashes right so you know over all historical time periods I've
00:40:12
tested this assume let's say you're going to average in over a year right
00:40:15
you're going to put brok it into 12 equal payments do it over a year 80% of the time it would have been better just
00:40:20
to put the money in right away and if you had done that on average you made about 5% more money than if you had
00:40:25
slowly gone in so I don't say Hey you have to put the money in right away I understand the fear I understand the
00:40:30
risk especially if it's like hey this is all the money I have I don't want to
00:40:33
risk it and and possibly lose you know 5 10 percent you know by putting it in and
00:40:36
then the market crashes I get that but just realize those are the trade-offs you're making statistically you're
00:40:42
likely to lose 5% and you're saying what do you mean you're not going to lose the
00:40:45
5 per you just don't get it because you slowly waited in it's an opportunity
00:40:49
cost it's not a real cost that you bear but it is a cost that exists so that's
00:40:53
one thing to keep in mind the second thing is like like just think about that tradeoff is that worth it for you if it
00:40:58
is you know then you're you're probably going to lose 5% if not then put it in
00:41:03
now and so that's what I say I try to show the data I try to present the human
00:41:06
side of it I can understand why people might want to do something or not want to do something and then I let you make
00:41:12
the decision right I can't make it for you I don't know your psychology I don't
00:41:14
know all that funny thing actually I did this analysis like a year ago mid 2022 and I was like yeah know you got a lumps
00:41:20
it got a lump sum right that's I always say that and through now if you had lump
00:41:24
suum versus doing it broken up something over you know payments from like July 2022 to June 2023 you would have been
00:41:31
down about 5% right so it's roughly like it's just by Chance the historical
00:41:35
average like if you had lump summed last year in July 2022 you'd be about five
00:41:39
have about 5% more money than someone who just took that and just slowly waited into the market so I guess it
00:41:45
would probably be a little less than that maybe it was only like 4% maybe three because of Treasury yields have
00:41:49
come up a little so if you were investing that side cash would' be a little bit lower than that but still
00:41:53
it's like it's pretty close to the average and it's funny that that it fits
00:41:56
that model that I use and I'm just like yep 5% a year do you want to take two
00:42:00
years to do it to average in the market 10% right three years 15 right you can roughly that's roughly equivalent to how
00:42:06
much you're going to lose the longer you take to get into the market but yeah
00:42:09
it's just tough it is it is but it's important that we present the objective
00:42:14
facts it's important we present the data and say Here's what the math says is the
00:42:18
best thing to do readers listeners clients whoever how do you feel about that because your other options which
00:42:25
are suboptimal here here's what the other options are and and I found at least in my experience that usually
00:42:32
presenting that full array of options and like you just did Nick presenting just how suboptimal some of the other
00:42:38
options might be you know is it is it a minor difference or is it a significant difference that's important too A lot of
00:42:44
people once you present that to them are able to make the best decision for their
00:42:49
personal risk tolerance you know a lot of people naturally want to hedge their bets and they might say oh I just
00:42:54
inherited $100,000 well I'm going to take $50,000 and lump Summit today because that's what Nick
00:43:00
muli told me to do then I'll take the remaining $50,000 and split it over the
00:43:06
next six months just because that's going to help me sleep at night so I I think it is important that people should
00:43:12
understand the math Behind these decisions yeah so in that example you just gave I would be like that's
00:43:17
completely fine and let's just do the math on it right so they're going to
00:43:20
take six let's say they did 100,000 they broke it over 6 months right so the
00:43:23
expected underperformance in a typical year would be about 2 and a half% right because we that's our 5% a full year
00:43:29
doing half a year so 2 and a half per. but now they just put 50,000 of that in up front so now we've already half the
00:43:35
capital is invested so you only have to look at the other you know 50,000 so really that two and a half percent is
00:43:41
actually it's only on the 50,000 not on the full hundred so now we're really on
00:43:44
the 100 we're only at 1.25% of expected on performance so once we get through
00:43:48
that we're like it's a percentage Point like it's not going to matter if that's
00:43:52
going to help you sleep at night lose the percentage Point like that's what I'll say to people especially six months
00:43:56
or I'm going to do it over three months okay do it over three months it doesn't
00:43:58
really matter it doesn't make a difference just like when people say Nick should I like Max up my 401k
00:44:03
earlier in the year like what if I just like put all my money like my first four
00:44:06
paychecks or five paychecks and like wouldn't that be better like statistically yes it would be better but
00:44:10
like how much of a difference does it yield you over the course of a year like it's a couple percentage points it's not
00:44:15
a lot and I'm not saying that those don't matter like they can add up especially if you do that every year for
00:44:20
20 years but like it's one of these things where like you're probably stressing and overanalyzing something I
00:44:25
think all that time you're spending on that you could go and start a side hustle and you would make way more money
00:44:30
and make way more returns than like you know if you're a billionaire that type
00:44:33
of decision matters if you're working with like a a typical retail person the
00:44:37
amount of money you have that that decision those percentage points don't add up to enough money compared to what
00:44:42
you can do with your labor so that's just what I try to keep in mind for most
00:44:46
normal people retail investors like myself right what what there's a famous idiom are saying about worrying too much
00:44:52
over pennies and missing out on dollars y i I forget what it is but essentially that's what we're saying here is that it
00:44:58
is very possible to fret way too much about the little things and then just you know you miss the forest for the
00:45:04
trees essentially yeah so Nick you mentioned bequests earlier and then I think on some other podcasts I've heard
00:45:13
you talking about that you like to work out a lot you've mentioned some data
00:45:16
before I've heard in regards to an hour of working out earlier in life is is
00:45:21
correlated to you know six or so hours of longer life in the end and maybe comes from like a Peter AA type so maybe
00:45:28
can you dive into a little bit about this intersection of wealth and health that that you sometimes write and talk
00:45:34
about yeah so I think there's actually some research I found you know while I
00:45:39
was doing you know looking into the book and everything and it showed that one of
00:45:43
the reasons why at least Americans overs save I think why you don't really see
00:45:46
the same behavior in a lot of the rest of the developed world is because our Health Care system is so expensive and
00:45:52
so people are really worried about a very adverse Health outcome that ends up consuming most of their wealth and so
00:45:57
that is a legitimate push back and a legitimate like hey Nick that's why I'm
00:46:01
over saving CU if something happens to me and like all my money gets wiped out I could die right in the US is one of
00:46:07
these things where like this could happen or I could go into tons of medical debt and it would really affect
00:46:11
my family that is a fair response and that is the only response I've heard to
00:46:15
the that was anti- Diet was Zero that makes sense to me my counter to it is like okay you know how you how you
00:46:21
counteract that to the best of your ability of course we can't stop everything if you get some crazy brain
00:46:25
tumor like there's certain things that we can't you know we can't control for
00:46:28
every variable but at least a lot of the diseases that kill most of the people here can be I'm not going to say you
00:46:35
can't prevent them but you can push them off there is some data that you can push
00:46:39
them off for most people right and we're talking about heart disease talking
00:46:42
about cancer we're talking about neurogenerative stuff obviously there's
00:46:45
some genetic components there but like for a lot of this stuff it's lifestyle
00:46:48
factors and so one of the things I talk about like instead of saying oh I need to save more money so I can have so I
00:46:54
worry about health outcome it's like no instead of doing that try and focus more
00:46:58
on your health today and so I think what the stuff that Peter a is doing his his
00:47:02
book actually just came out outlive really good book I recommend it for everyone bought it for all my friends
00:47:06
first time I've actually ever done that I literally bought like 20 copies that's
00:47:09
aome because I think this is worth more than just like monetary stuff like getting rich and all that is very
00:47:14
superficial like living longer and healthier especially living healthier I think is more important and so the idea
00:47:20
is like every hour of exercise assuming you do this and you keep this up over your life and you actually look at how
00:47:25
much it expected you can extend your life it's about every hour gets to about
00:47:28
six hours now that doesn't mean linearly so I'm like oh if I work out four hours
00:47:33
a day I'll live forever live forever not it's not how that works right but it's
00:47:36
this idea that like you know basically all the time you spend working out isn't
00:47:40
just like lost time it's like oh you work out just so like if I spend all this time working out I have to spend
00:47:45
all my time working like all that extra time I earn I'm just I'm doing it to
00:47:48
work out it's like self- sustaining yourself but that's that's not what it
00:47:51
is at all you're actually gaining more time because you're going to live longer
00:47:54
because you're healthier and so exercise is like it's a huge thing I promote and it's not something I talk
00:48:00
about a lot on the blog but given the stuff I've learned from AA and just reading a lot of other things on this
00:48:05
it's just a no-brainer to me it's like how do we solve this problem of over
00:48:08
saving how do we solve this problem of I didn't save enough money like I think my
00:48:11
argument for people now I used to say oh I didn't save enough what should I do
00:48:14
it's like okay like work harder at cash up contributions no my my advice now is
00:48:19
like start hitting the gym like start really taking your Fitness to the next level why you can by doing that your
00:48:26
health will be better for longer right in in expectation and then you can work more to make up for those savings you
00:48:32
didn't make when you so let's say you just wasted your 20s you didn't save a
00:48:35
single Dollar in your 30s start working out start getting your health right so you can work in your 60s right instead
00:48:40
of saying oh I have to retire 65 because I can't do it or maybe you can work even
00:48:44
into your 70s if you have to right not saying this is ideal but you said you know you need to catch up how do you do
00:48:49
it you have to build time that's the only way to build more time to kind of catch up and so that's the thing I try
00:48:54
and and focus on is tell people people like hey look at your health and I think health is a way to extend wealth in a in
00:49:00
a different way I'm not even talking about like like the wealth of having a good you know being healthy I'm talking
00:49:04
about like literal Financial wealth you can do this by having good health so you
00:49:08
can keep working keep being productive Etc right I think a lot of things build off of that and you see a lot of people
00:49:13
who they work hard they make a lot of money and then they don't have health and they don't get chance to spend it
00:49:17
and it's just that's where the die with zero there's a lot of these these topics
00:49:20
that are intersecting you start to see how like if you focus on one you can build on the others and so that's the
00:49:25
thing I want to kind of emphasize here if if I could take one thing from your readers like as much as making money oh
00:49:30
yes buy my book great whatever but like really focus on your health and exercise
00:49:34
that's going to do more for you than anything in the financial world I think
00:49:37
ever will so I I love it Nick after this episode publishes we'll soon publish
00:49:42
another episode with Fritz Gilbert I don't know if you're familiar with Fritz
00:49:45
he is he runs the retirement Manifesto blog really nice guy he was recently on a Morning Star podcast one of the top
00:49:53
three reasons for people having unplanned retirements one has to do with you know management pushes them out
00:49:59
early the other two are health related one of them is simply people get unhealthy people get sick and they can
00:50:06
no longer work and if you're so sick you can no longer work that also probably
00:50:10
means you're so sick you can't play with your grandkids you're so sick you can't
00:50:14
do all those fun traveling activities you were hoping to do in retirement I mean it's a pretty depressing long-term
00:50:21
outcome and just like you said some of that might be un avoidable some of it might just be a bad genetic Lottery but
00:50:29
a ton of it is environmental and it's stuff that we can control for in our own
00:50:33
lives in our diets in our exercise routines and so we'll take that away as an awesome tip to focus on for the
00:50:40
future yeah I agree all right Nick so everyone's GNA want to know how can they
00:50:45
find you how can they reach out where they can they read you on a regular basis and where can they find just keep
00:50:50
buying yeah so um you can find me at of dolland dat.com you can sign up for my newsletter
00:50:56
um on social you can find me at twitter.com the dying social media site if you sign up today please no it's
00:51:03
dollars and data that's on Twitter and then on Instagram or threads I'm Nick
00:51:07
muli is my my name and you can find my book Amazon wherever books are sold just keep buying appreciate you having me on
00:51:14
Jesse really really appreciate the combo hope hope was helpful for your your listeners it was awesome thanks so much
00:51:18
Nick thank [Music] you thanks for tuning in to this episode of the best interest podcast if you have
00:51:27
a question for Jesse to answer on a future episode send him an email at Jesse bestin interest. blog again that's
00:51:35
Jesse at bestter interest. blog did you enjoy the show subscribe rate and review
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the podcast wherever you listen this helps others find the show and invest in knowledge themselves and we really
00:51:47
appreciate it we'll catch you on the next episode of the best interest [Music]
00:51:54
podcast the best interest podcast is a personal podcast meant for education and entertainment it should not be taken as
00:52:01
Financial advice and is not prescriptive of your financial situation