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Guy Langford: Knowledge at Wharton Real Estate Forum

February 11, 2010 / 22:56

This episode discusses the challenges facing banks, particularly regarding commercial real estate loans, upcoming maturities, and the potential need for government intervention. Key topics include the $1.5 to $1.8 trillion in commercial real estate loans due, the concept of 'extend or pretend,' and the differing impacts on larger banks versus regional and community banks.

Guests discuss the implications of low interest rates on bank valuations and the reluctance of banks to mark down assets. They highlight the need for a collaborative solution involving private equity, healthy banks, and government agencies like the FDIC.

The conversation also touches on the historical context of the savings and loan crisis, comparing it to current market conditions. The potential for distressed debt in the U.S. and Europe is examined, emphasizing the ongoing distress in the commercial real estate sector.

Investor sentiment is influenced by recent bankruptcies and the performance of public REITs, with a focus on the capital available for distressed opportunities. The episode concludes with a discussion on the timeline for market recovery and the complexities of distressed debt.

TL;DR

Banks face significant challenges with commercial real estate loans, requiring potential government intervention and collaboration with private equity.

Episode

22:56
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tell me about
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the problems that banks have that people
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aren't
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taking a close look at what are the
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skeletons in the closets that
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that don't get talked about usually when
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we talk with
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professionals who sometimes have an
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interest in in
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presenting let's say the best foot
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forward sure
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uh steve you know i think i think it's
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well known that they're somewhere in the
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range of
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1.5 to 1.8 trillion dollars worth of
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commercial real estate loans
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that are coming due over the course the
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next year four to five years
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um during 2009 it was about 200 million
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and a lot of that was extended i think
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you've heard the phrase coined extend or
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pretend
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um at some point the banking community
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is going to have to deal with
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uh these maturities if there's not a
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refinancing market
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how is it going to be dealt with is it a
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modification is it a foreclosure
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reo real estate owned taking back the
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keys to the property
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or is there going to be some other
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solution i think a lot of the banks
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right now
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have not taken what people refer to as
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the mark
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and writing those to assets down to the
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level that perhaps
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folks think the market value is today
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now we heard on
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the panel this morning that very few
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banks want to do that because they don't
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have to do it at least right now because
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of
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the low interest rate environment and
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should interest rates change then we've
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got an entirely different
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environment of course is so
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can how long can this extend and pretend
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go on is that the same thing as asking
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how long are we going to have interest
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rates this low
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uh interesting question i i think at
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some point
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um for the origination markets to really
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open up
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uh people the banks are going to have to
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deal with these issues so
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a lot of people say there's a stoma
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right now between
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the equity that's sitting on the
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sidelines that looks to
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to potentially buy these assets and then
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the banks themselves who are holding
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these these mortgage loans
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that's the bid ask spread uh in terms of
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you know when they're going to deal with
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it um it's going to take one of
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several things uh it's going to take a
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government action
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for example what kind of action um in
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terms of you know
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for for example um setting a set of
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guidelines that actually prescribes how
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banks are supposed to specifically mark
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these items
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uh it could be a regulatory angle it
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could be an accounting standard change
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there's been a lot of that already had
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some of those had some of that yes and
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they've had their fair share of
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controversy
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my sense is and then you've also had
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some transactions
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which have occurred albeit in a world of
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distress
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my sense is that we're getting closer to
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a point where people are getting ready
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to transact
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and absent any more intervention or
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changes at either a regulatory
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or a an accounting policy level
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at some point in the next 12 to 18
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months you're going to see a lot more
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transacting with these loans
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um larger banks will have the benefit of
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multiple other income streams and and
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trading operations being able to cover
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if you will um
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the need to make large write-downs on
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these assets smaller
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regional and community banks will be
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subject to a different set of dynamics
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and then you have you know banks that
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are on fdic watch lists right now
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uh which desperately need capital um
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and it's interesting that they need
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capital to survive and yet we have this
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capital that's on the sideline and we're
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still not getting to a point where
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there is a flow of activity what do you
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think is the ideal solution
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do you think that there's something
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positive the government could offer here
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um you know it's interesting uh you've
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got a lot of
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industry observers commenting on what
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they believe
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uh needs to happen um
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my lens talking to my clients some of
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them are a private equity
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and uh institutional investors uh some
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of them are banks
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and then also talking to you know folks
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who have dealt
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uh frequently and recently with with
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government agencies
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is it actually needs to involve a
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cooperation of
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of multiple parties it might be a
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situation where we have
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private equity comes into part of the
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equation um
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existing healthy banks are also part of
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the solution
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and then perhaps you've got fdic as a
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backstop
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um even for commercial property you're
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suggesting
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uh that even for commercial property so
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after
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after the bank bailouts that we've had
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and the sentiment out there
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um do you really think there's going to
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be much appetite for public money to be
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used for commercial i think it's a
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backstop
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you know i think the the bailout of the
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big banks has been just that it's been a
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bailout of the big banks
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and i think samsel made the comment
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today is like a lot of
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folks out there don't realize that
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bailing out the big banks
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on wall street is bailing out what
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uh main street as well because those
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banks and those institutions are
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critical
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to main street right that gets
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translated differently through the
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politics of course
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it does of course um however i think a
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lot of the regional and community banks
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have not been recipients
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of that funding but they're actually the
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ones who have a fairly large exposure
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to lending on the commercial real estate
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side so that's interesting because i
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i've read someplace that the top 20
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banks basically have very little
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exposure to commercial real estate
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and it's it's the big regional banks and
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the small banks
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big regional and community banks
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community banks with construction loans
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and so forth
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the construction loans are challenging
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uh just lack of cash flow
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and i think a stabilized asset is an
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easier one
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to deal with from a loan perspective and
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then to the actual underlying asset but
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a non-cash flowing asset
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one that needs continued investment or
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incremental investment
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is more challenging to work through you
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know whichever way you look at it steve
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it's going to require participation from
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multiple constitu constituents
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and so you know i'd like to think that
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you know given given
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my my lens on in the world right now
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that
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the um regional community banks
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uh some of them will be healthier than
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others and and have an opportunity
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to participate in this process to expand
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their footprint i'd like to think that
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the fdic or other government agencies
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will be there to endorse or bless a
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transaction
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i'd like to think that the private
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equity participants can also
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play an important role of recapitalizing
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some of those institutions into a
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healthier state
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is that something like what was done
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with the
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snls in the late 80s early 90s in other
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words
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you had institutions flat on their back
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you had government come in and at least
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propped them up to the extent that they
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they didn't go out which they would have
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without the propping up and then you had
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bottom feeders come in and buy them up
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at
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prices and that were very attractive if
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you had confidence in the market and of
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course they made a killing by the mid
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90s some of these
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these players that had consolidated a
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lot of these little banks were were big
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regional players themselves and they had
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done
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exceptionally well yeah uh different
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world today
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obviously um and i have heard people
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reflect upon you know why aren't we
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doing an rtc type structure today
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there's definitely a different political
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landscape right now
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and there's also a very large volume if
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you look back to the rtc days or the
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savings and loans and you compare it to
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the volume
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of distress out there today so there's
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already been more
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money far more money lend to aig alone
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than there was the entire snl industry
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at that time
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absolutely um and i think back in in the
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snl uh um crisis or
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if you will um you also had a much
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different array of loan product
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um and you know since the snl crisis uh
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you really had proliferation and new
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sorts of
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sources of capital one of them was cmbs
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and so that was kind of post snl and i'd
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say
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that that has added to the complexity
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and then you add to that as well
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multiple participations by different
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banking institutions
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in the site in the one loan um
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and you have various forms whether it's
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syndication
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or uh or going out there and secured as
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a securitizing product
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that basically makes for a much more
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complicated capital stack
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in some instances uh we've seen a couple
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of examples already
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with the the complexity within the
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capital stacks today
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is such that folks are saying the only
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way to deal with this
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is through some kind of cleansing
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process
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whether it be a foreclosure or more
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pointedly a bankruptcy
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and we have seen examples of that so
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given that
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commercial real estate is a lagging
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indicator and what you're suggesting
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is that things are coming to a head as
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it were
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that some of the problems are that have
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been able to be
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extended and pretending that that
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payments were being made when in fact a
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lot of concessions were
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were being made behind the scenes that
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that peers
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going to be forced to come to an end uh
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the kinds of changes you're talking
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about
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may be starting to begin how long of a
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process is it until
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the market sort of washed out and and
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ready to look ahead to
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more normal times i'm assuming we're
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talking years here steve i wouldn't be
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here if i knew the answer to that
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uh you know crystal ball aside you know
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there's a lot of
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a lot of issues that need to be worked
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through
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the good news is there's a lot of
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capital on the sideline it's and they
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are patient pools of capital and they
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want to deploy but they also want to
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deploy in an environment
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in which they have a little bit of
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certainty around the investment
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parameters
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uh there's been a lot of concern about
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the uh the bow out of big banks and the
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impact that that's had on
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you know compensation and other areas of
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scrutiny from the investing public
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um so that's created a little bit of
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angst
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um i think there's also a little bit of
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angst in the system right now in terms
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of
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people that do participate in the like a
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loan sale
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program or process uh that is being run
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are frustrated at the number of other
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bidders that are coming in and bidding
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up the price of the assets
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or the underlying quality of the
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information so
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systemically there are a number of
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things
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uh that are little that are roadblocks
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to
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an efficient recovery if you will
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what are some or who are some of those
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investors
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we're talking about u.s commercial
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property here i assume uh and who are
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some of these investors that uh
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that are crowding out the field is it
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are the overseas investors for example
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sovereign wealth funds perhaps uh yeah
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there's
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there's an array of different investors
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and you you're obviously familiar with
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the private equity capital i think uh
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one of our panelists
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today talked about the 78 billion
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dollars sitting there on the sidelines
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ready to deploy into commercial real
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estate
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majority of that is looking at paper and
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not the underlying assets
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so you've got that pool of capital
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you've got the pool of capital with
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uh in the public markets in the last
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eight months nine months
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the public markets have been very uh
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positive towards real estate
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whether it be newly formed reits that
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are going out there to pursue a mandate
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in distress buying distressed
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opportunities or originating
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or alternatively recently we've had a
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number of blind pool reits
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going after specific asset classes like
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hotels
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so there's been 30 plus billion raised
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in that area
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and then for the so so reits are very
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positive and bullish
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yeah and the public markets have have
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provided some liquidity there and it's
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interesting that
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that that source of capital the public
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markets provides an interesting vehicle
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for real estate because it gives people
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the exposure the asset class
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but it also gives them liquidity uh
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so you can sell down a portion of your
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holding whereas it's it's tough to sell
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down a porsche
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an office building so how interest rate
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dependent is all this
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and then continue can i come back to the
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interest rate dependency
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okay and then add category number three
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is
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is you've got you know large pools of
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these
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um reits that are non-traded
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and i think that's about 70 billion
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dollars year-to-date and then you have
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individuals high net worth individuals
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domestically who are
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looking at this as rtc2 saying this is
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how all the big
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guys today uh got to where they are they
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made some prudent purchases during the
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last down cycle
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and and were able to you know come out
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of that cycle
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you know very strong and then you've got
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offshore capital and with exchange rates
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where they are right now
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you've got offshore private equity also
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looking at the u.s saying
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risk adjusted this is a good place to be
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given asset prices right now
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sovereign wealth even though some
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sovereign wealth have got their own
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share of issues
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i think there's still a huge pool of
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capital out there
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looking for an allocation towards u.s
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commercial real estate i mean that's
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very the very group that can afford to
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to buy and sit and wait i would think uh
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they're long-term players without a
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doubt
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and a lot of them are looking to put
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commercial real estate into their
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portfolios as
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a tool for for diversification sorry
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i i went on there that's okay do you
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want me to address the uh the interest
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rate issue please yes
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because can you repeat the question the
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question is isn't all this
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in interest rate dependent in other
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words um
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at some point interest rates are going
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to have to rise and the timing is
00:14:10
everything
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and if it if if rates rose
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sooner rather than later that could
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throw pretty big monkey wrench in some
00:14:18
of these scenarios couldn't it
00:14:20
uh without doubt without doubt i mean i
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think if we listen to some of the panels
00:14:24
this morning
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uh i would say there was a consensus
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view that rates need to start being
00:14:29
ratcheted up now
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um you know to curb fears of
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of you know high or hyperinflation
00:14:37
down the track and so you know right now
00:14:41
you look at the lending environment and
00:14:44
the cost of funds is very low um
00:14:47
but there isn't a lot of lending going
00:14:48
on um
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you know it does dampen as interest
00:14:52
rates go up i think what we did here
00:14:54
however steve is that
00:14:55
you could still you go up a a a couple
00:14:59
of percentage points
00:15:00
and that the dampening effect on
00:15:03
investment and commercial real estate
00:15:04
would be not so
00:15:05
significant but yet it would have a
00:15:07
moderating impact
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you know in the macro economy and then
00:15:11
there's the question of really whether
00:15:13
folks may be advocating slightly higher
00:15:16
rates but whether the economy
00:15:17
or the authorities would actually do
00:15:19
that given the fragility of the economy
00:15:20
right now
00:15:22
that's absolutely true so another
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question uh
00:15:25
dubai world we have to ask you about
00:15:26
that and even though
00:15:28
it looks as i guess we're about two
00:15:30
weeks since that's happened it's been
00:15:32
announced
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um the the the waiting to to pay back
00:15:36
debt
00:15:37
uh at first there was a big reaction now
00:15:39
there's less of one
00:15:41
what kind of an effect does that have on
00:15:43
u.s investors just in terms of thinking
00:15:45
about
00:15:46
uh investing in projects in in real
00:15:48
estate in general
00:15:50
making them more cautious or or in what
00:15:52
other ways might it affect
00:15:54
uh investor psychology yeah
00:15:57
all of these uh items impact investor
00:16:00
psychology
00:16:01
um seeing a large public rate
00:16:04
um file for bankruptcy protection
00:16:07
investor sentiment it impacts a segment
00:16:10
that they're in
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seeing another privately held company
00:16:16
file for bankruptcy as well in the you
00:16:18
know extended
00:16:21
hotel segment also creates um
00:16:24
an impact on investors sentiment you
00:16:26
know similarly
00:16:27
dubai world um you know has an impact on
00:16:30
the investor sentiment
00:16:33
i don't think it's any different to
00:16:35
other investors
00:16:37
who in this last cycle invested in
00:16:40
commercial
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real estate and employed leverage
00:16:45
i know some participants right now look
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at that
00:16:48
set of factors as being
00:16:52
creating conditions that that might be
00:16:55
appealing to an investor
00:16:58
i see other folks looking at that saying
00:17:00
well that creates a lot of distress
00:17:03
and dampens you know investor sentiment
00:17:05
i think
00:17:06
it depends which lens you're coming from
00:17:09
um
00:17:10
you know i i you know in many instances
00:17:13
given my role i'm subject to limitations
00:17:15
on what i can share
00:17:16
but i think it does obviously have an
00:17:18
impact on investor sentiment
00:17:19
um what i would say though is yeah
00:17:22
overall
00:17:23
um i would expect over the next you know
00:17:26
three to five years time
00:17:28
to see a broader deleveraging of
00:17:32
the commercial real estate markets
00:17:35
perhaps
00:17:36
back to more sustainable levels
00:17:40
i've heard a lot of people you know
00:17:42
touting somewhere between 60 to 70
00:17:44
percent ltv
00:17:45
the question is what is v
00:17:48
and i think that's driven to some extent
00:17:50
by leverage
00:17:53
my expectation is that that
00:17:56
the public markets the private capital
00:17:59
the offshore capital
00:18:01
um and the banking you know sector as
00:18:04
well as the government
00:18:06
are all going to be part of this uh you
00:18:08
know solution if you will
00:18:10
to have a broader deleveraging of real
00:18:12
estate you know commercial real estate
00:18:13
in the u.s
00:18:15
and that will happen over roughly what
00:18:17
kind of period three to five year period
00:18:18
of time three to five years yeah
00:18:20
okay let's switch topics quickly to uh
00:18:23
distressed debt
00:18:24
sure give me your sense of what the
00:18:25
contours are of distressed debt
00:18:28
in the u.s and then in europe it seems
00:18:30
to me from what i'm reading that in
00:18:32
in the u.s the amount of distressed debt
00:18:35
has come down quite a bit in the last
00:18:36
year
00:18:37
where it looks like europe may be just
00:18:40
about
00:18:41
to ratchet up what's your view uh
00:18:44
yeah my lens to you know lens on the u.s
00:18:47
is a lot sharper than it is
00:18:49
in in europe and i would probably
00:18:51
contend your view that
00:18:52
uh things in the us have
00:18:56
been dealt with i'm not sure what your
00:18:58
exact words were there but
00:19:00
uh i think there's still a huge amount
00:19:01
of distress in the system in the u.s
00:19:03
for debt underlying commercial real
00:19:05
estate there's a huge amount that's
00:19:07
coming up over the next five years that
00:19:09
has to be dealt with
00:19:11
i think similarly but on a lesser scale
00:19:13
in
00:19:14
europe the issue has to be dealt with
00:19:18
in in some respects some of the marks
00:19:20
have been taken
00:19:21
in europe under ifrs or under the u.s
00:19:24
accounting models
00:19:25
some of those marks to mark the loans
00:19:27
down in market value have not occurred
00:19:30
so you know in terms of scale the us
00:19:32
market has a huge
00:19:34
nut to deal with in in that regard let
00:19:37
me just
00:19:38
read you something from the ft because
00:19:39
this is what i was referring to the
00:19:41
rating agency
00:19:42
talking about moody's here now forecast
00:19:44
that default rates for us jonker's
00:19:46
speculative grade
00:19:47
debt will peak near 14 in november
00:19:50
before falling back swiftly to four
00:19:52
percent in a year's time
00:19:54
that's that sounds like a big change
00:19:58
that is a big change and you know to be
00:20:00
honest it's probably one that i don't
00:20:01
want to comment on
00:20:03
just because you know the speculative
00:20:05
nature
00:20:06
is is there more you can you can offer
00:20:08
though on your views of distressed debt
00:20:11
yeah it's interesting we you know we
00:20:12
work um
00:20:14
as a practice with a number of different
00:20:16
constituents within the distressed
00:20:17
the world of distressed debt we work
00:20:19
with debtors who are trying to deal with
00:20:21
banks
00:20:22
modify their loans see if they can
00:20:25
extract
00:20:26
um alternate scenarios with their
00:20:29
current borrowings and we have the
00:20:30
lenders who are dealing with
00:20:33
who are trying to work out what's this
00:20:35
loan really worth
00:20:36
what are my options do i take the keys
00:20:39
back
00:20:39
do i extend to pretend do i modify it
00:20:44
or do i sell that loan to somebody else
00:20:46
and make it somebody else's problem
00:20:48
or does the government come in and then
00:20:50
i'm dealing with the investors
00:20:52
as well um who are trying to work out
00:20:56
how they can play
00:20:57
effectively in this in this space and be
00:21:00
part of the solution
00:21:01
so you look at those three constituents
00:21:04
um and there's a lot of different you
00:21:08
can come in at different lenses
00:21:10
um interestingly enough you know we have
00:21:12
the benefit of working with different
00:21:14
clients
00:21:14
across that kind of cycle and provide
00:21:18
a lot of that uh you know perspective to
00:21:20
different clients
00:21:22
you know based on what we see in the
00:21:23
marketplace i would tell you
00:21:26
there's a lot of distress to go around
00:21:28
right now
00:21:30
and and my view is is that it is going
00:21:33
to take
00:21:34
a diligent period of time to work
00:21:36
through the distress
00:21:37
it's certainly encouraging that the the
00:21:40
capital markets
00:21:42
on the public side for public reits
00:21:46
and new pools of capital are being
00:21:47
raised that's a positive
00:21:49
it's a absolute positive right now that
00:21:52
the markets have been able to absorb
00:21:54
uh and over-subscribe a couple of recent
00:21:56
cmbs offerings
00:21:58
some of which are tough backed and some
00:22:00
of which are non-talf-backed
00:22:02
so you know i see those as two positive
00:22:05
signs
00:22:06
and we see that you know one or two
00:22:07
transactions have occurred
00:22:10
uh with with you know fdic-sponsored
00:22:13
deals
00:22:14
so you look in the world of distress and
00:22:16
you say
00:22:18
there are some positive signs um you
00:22:20
know we'll get through this
00:22:22
and it will result in a de-leveraging of
00:22:24
real estate
00:22:25
is also going to result in a shift if
00:22:27
you will
00:22:28
of of real estate wealth from
00:22:32
one set of hands to another set of hands
00:22:35
and there might be some folks who are on
00:22:38
both sides of the table
00:22:40
might be thanks for joining us my
00:22:52
pleasure
00:22:54
you

Episode Highlights

  • The Banking Crisis Looms
    Banks face $1.5 to $1.8 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing soon.
    “How is it going to be dealt with?”
    @ 01m 06s
    February 11, 2010
  • Extend or Pretend
    The banking community may have to deal with significant asset write-downs soon.
    “A lot of banks have not taken the mark.”
    @ 01m 23s
    February 11, 2010
  • The Role of Capital
    There's a huge pool of capital looking for allocations in U.S. commercial real estate.
    “They’re long-term players without a doubt.”
    @ 13m 48s
    February 11, 2010
  • Investor Sentiment Shifts
    Investor psychology is impacted by large companies filing for bankruptcy protection.
    “It depends which lens you’re coming from.”
    @ 17m 09s
    February 11, 2010
  • Navigating Distressed Debt
    Exploring the complexities of distressed debt and the roles of various stakeholders.
    “We work with debtors who are trying to deal with banks.”
    @ 20m 19s
    February 11, 2010
  • Positive Signs in Capital Markets
    Despite distress, there are encouraging signs in capital markets and recent offerings.
    “It's a positive right now that the markets have been able to absorb.”
    @ 21m 49s
    February 11, 2010
  • Shifting Real Estate Wealth
    The current situation may lead to a shift of real estate wealth between parties.
    “It will result in a shift of real estate wealth from one set of hands to another.”
    @ 22m 27s
    February 11, 2010

Episode Quotes

  • How long can this extend and pretend go on?
    Guy Langford: Knowledge at Wharton Real Estate Forum
  • It’s going to require participation from multiple constituents.
    Guy Langford: Knowledge at Wharton Real Estate Forum
  • There’s a lot of capital on the sideline, and they are patient.
    Guy Langford: Knowledge at Wharton Real Estate Forum
  • The public markets provide an interesting vehicle for real estate.
    Guy Langford: Knowledge at Wharton Real Estate Forum
  • I would expect to see a broader deleveraging of the commercial real estate markets.
    Guy Langford: Knowledge at Wharton Real Estate Forum
  • There's a lot of distress to go around right now.
    Guy Langford: Knowledge at Wharton Real Estate Forum

Key Moments

  • Banking Problems00:17
  • Commercial Real Estate00:38
  • Capital on the Sideline10:10
  • Investor Psychology16:00
  • Deleveraging Ahead18:10
  • Current Distress21:26
  • Encouraging Signs21:49
  • Wealth Shift22:27

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

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