00:00:00
free BG's channeling Tim Walls over
00:00:01
there I know wow he's as exciting as Tim
00:00:03
Walls got your flannel on do you know
00:00:05
what Adventure capitalist is freeberg oh
00:00:07
he's Shilling super gut well as of last
00:00:10
week when jcal decided to turn all in
00:00:12
into a commercial I was actually gonna
00:00:14
do a super gut background we're
00:00:16
launching super gut Nationwide in Target
00:00:19
this week any Target in the United
00:00:20
States you can go into and pick up super
00:00:22
gut you can buy the glp1 booster you can
00:00:27
buy the Prebiotic Shake I have that
00:00:29
actually is that the chocolate or do you
00:00:31
have the chocolate I mean I like this
00:00:33
one chocolate Okay mocha is good too all
00:00:35
right let's get start thanks for the
00:00:36
support J I appreciate of course of
00:00:38
course of course we're cutting all this
00:00:40
out no way this is why I do this next
00:00:43
time plug a company I have a steak
00:00:47
in let your winners
00:00:49
[Music]
00:00:50
ride
00:00:54
David and instead we open sources to the
00:00:57
fans and they've just gone crazy with it
00:00:59
love you
00:01:02
Queen also Allin election Night Live
00:01:05
stream is coming November 5th you can
00:01:08
watch live saaks will be hosting do
00:01:10
we're doing it you're hosting it your
00:01:12
team said you're doing it and so you'll
00:01:14
either get to see are you not go to
00:01:16
marago sex well if things continue to
00:01:19
look good for Trump I I might go to Mar
00:01:22
Lago I might yeah you're May let's not
00:01:26
commit sex you're maybe if you go to Mar
00:01:28
you're excus I can live for
00:01:32
beaz I'll go to Maro that would be fun
00:01:34
yeah if it looks good I'll go so that's
00:01:37
um of course I'm invited I talk to Jared
00:01:40
things look as good as they do right now
00:01:42
then I think I'm gonna have to go to Mar
00:01:44
think we should all be in Maro it's
00:01:46
going to be a unique experience oh my
00:01:47
God can you imagine being in Mara Lago
00:01:49
and he loses oh my God that's why I
00:01:53
unless s is in the bag it's got to be
00:01:55
too big to rig if it's too big to rig
00:01:57
I'm going to Mar Lo too big to rig
00:02:01
do you guys think poly Market is like
00:02:03
why do you think it's different from the
00:02:04
polls are we talking about this today
00:02:06
poly Market's showing like
00:02:08
6040 or 6535 now right yeah because
00:02:12
they're measuring different things I've
00:02:13
explained this before poly Market is
00:02:15
people betting on the outcome so 58%
00:02:17
think Trump's going to win whereas the
00:02:19
polls in a particular State show the
00:02:22
percentage of how each person's going to
00:02:25
vote so if for sure you knew the
00:02:28
election was 5149
00:02:30
the betting markets would swing to 100
00:02:32
let me ask you this so Nate Silver's
00:02:34
model which takes the poll from each
00:02:36
state and builds a a kind of a a Monte
00:02:39
Carlo of you know super pole like a
00:02:41
super model for the whole country why is
00:02:45
his estimate 5050 right now while the
00:02:47
poly Market is betting at 6040 it's
00:02:50
possible he's laggy in his
00:02:53
estimates got it on the betting markets
00:02:55
the betting markets seem
00:02:57
to uh go based on momentum so it like it
00:03:01
indicates the swing and momentum and
00:03:03
then the do things are G how do you
00:03:04
think they're gonna change after the
00:03:06
interviews the last couple days Trump on
00:03:07
blumberg and kamla on Fox do you think
00:03:10
those are gonna change anything I don't
00:03:12
think so I think it's all baked in now
00:03:15
well Trump over the past few weeks seems
00:03:16
to have had Aur owing to the fact that
00:03:19
kamla's interviews generally don't go
00:03:21
well so I think she started off a little
00:03:23
behind started doing interviews to catch
00:03:25
up and now she's a lot behind I don't
00:03:27
think the BR bear interview is going to
00:03:29
help her
00:03:30
well let me ask you this I so my my
00:03:32
observation as I don't know I'm not like
00:03:34
a super political person or um whatever
00:03:36
a party oriented person I looked at the
00:03:39
uh a lot of the media on both sides and
00:03:41
it seems like everyone on the left says
00:03:43
KLA did an amazing job on Fox she
00:03:45
defended herself she showed her skills
00:03:47
and her competency and then everyone on
00:03:48
the right's like she embarrassed herself
00:03:50
she fell apart and then the same thing
00:03:51
happened with the Trump interview on
00:03:53
Bloomberg people are like on the left
00:03:55
they say look at how he couldn't handle
00:03:56
the interviewer and he fell apart and
00:03:58
all his lies were exposed and everyone
00:03:59
on right like look at him you got a
00:04:00
standing ovation it's almost like
00:04:02
everyone's just kind of like self
00:04:04
asserting their their beliefs that they
00:04:06
already hold when they judge these
00:04:08
people on these interview shows at this
00:04:09
point is it is it already baked at this
00:04:11
point like is anyone actually going to
00:04:12
change their view based on these
00:04:14
interviews happening well the question
00:04:16
is what appeals to that small sliver of
00:04:19
Independence yeah the question I would
00:04:22
ask back to you is if the Brett Bear
00:04:25
interview was going so well for KLA why
00:04:27
was her staff on the side lines waving
00:04:30
to try and end the interview that
00:04:32
apparently they had like four people you
00:04:34
waving and trying to cut the interview
00:04:36
who said who said that was the case he
00:04:37
did said it so yeah it was like in Rocky
00:04:40
four when Apollo Creed's corner is like
00:04:44
yelling throw in the damn throw in the
00:04:46
damn tow they couldn't wait to get off
00:04:48
the stage after 26 minutes I just think
00:04:51
that if it was going thatly allegedly
00:04:53
yeah I don't think BR bear is going to
00:04:54
lie about that I don't know why he would
00:04:56
lie about that why would why would they
00:04:57
get her off the stage after 26 minutes
00:04:59
it was going so great I'm not saying it
00:05:01
went as horrible as some of the
00:05:03
partisans on the other side are saying
00:05:05
but I don't think it went that great do
00:05:06
you give her any credit for going into
00:05:08
the lion Den like she did well I I think
00:05:10
that she went she did the interview
00:05:12
precisely to get the talking point that
00:05:14
she does adversarial interviews because
00:05:16
that talking point was hurting them and
00:05:18
so you saw like all of her fans and the
00:05:20
media were saying well see she can walk
00:05:22
into the lion's den but again she did
00:05:24
the shortest interview possible I don't
00:05:26
think she answered the questions
00:05:28
directly I think she filibustered a lot
00:05:31
she deflected a lot uh I don't think she
00:05:33
was particularly persuasive I don't
00:05:35
think she convinced anybody so I think
00:05:38
that what you saw there was somebody who
00:05:41
just wanted to get it over with as
00:05:42
quickly as possible to check the box on
00:05:45
okay does adversarial interviews Trump
00:05:48
on the other hand he he actually likes
00:05:50
doing these things the Bloomberg there's
00:05:52
no filibustering there right well no
00:05:55
he's Chris Buster come on all anot he
00:05:59
can do do the weave he can do the
00:06:01
anecdotes but yeah he's also very good
00:06:03
at coming back on the interviewer when
00:06:06
they get adversarial and the audience
00:06:08
was with him they gave him a standing
00:06:09
ovation he went for 64 minutes compared
00:06:12
to her 26 I just think there's no
00:06:14
comparison I think Trump is someone who
00:06:17
relishes walking into the lion's den and
00:06:19
doing those interviews I think Harris
00:06:21
did it because she felt like she had
00:06:23
what do you think Jam you see it or no
00:06:24
you have any opinion I watched the whole
00:06:26
interview it was clear in in the
00:06:29
interview he mentioned the fact that he
00:06:32
was being waved off and then he said it
00:06:34
after the fact as well that's not
00:06:35
alleged I think that that did happen I
00:06:37
would say two things I thought that she
00:06:41
was
00:06:43
composed and she maintained her cool so
00:06:46
I think from a stylistic perspective I
00:06:49
thought that she did well from a
00:06:51
substance perspective it was pretty
00:06:54
lacking because if you actually listened
00:06:56
to the answers there there was just a
00:06:58
ton of non answers and they were to very
00:07:03
basic questions that I think a lot of
00:07:06
people even if you're not a swing voter
00:07:08
I think would probably want to know the
00:07:11
answer to
00:07:12
meaning did she have any regrets about
00:07:15
what's happened in the last three and a
00:07:16
half years did she have any regrets
00:07:19
about what she's done on the
00:07:21
border has she not noticed that Biden
00:07:24
was wavering before he was hot swwa I
00:07:28
think that you could have predicted that
00:07:30
these questions were going to come so I
00:07:33
think I was surprised that there wasn't
00:07:35
a crisp answer that they had practiced
00:07:37
for that the second thing I'll say is
00:07:40
then David is right everybody then gets
00:07:42
very tribal in how they interpret it I
00:07:44
think I saw one tweet from Elon about
00:07:47
how all of the newspapers characterized
00:07:49
her interview with Brett beay as quote
00:07:50
unquote testy and it was sort of like
00:07:54
that was the way that the mainstream
00:07:56
media framed it I suspect if somebody
00:07:58
looked at how Trump's interview with
00:08:00
Bloomberg
00:08:01
was analyzed it probably had some
00:08:04
similar verbage that was repeated there
00:08:06
as well so I think you are right Jason
00:08:08
that the mainstream media can't be
00:08:09
trusted to tell the truth I would just
00:08:11
encourage people to watch it I think
00:08:12
like I said stylistically I think she
00:08:15
did well and remain composed
00:08:16
substantively I think it was
00:08:18
non-existent yeah it would have been
00:08:19
nice to have another debate between
00:08:21
these two she still really explain how
00:08:24
she's different than Joe Biden other
00:08:26
than the fact that he's a white male and
00:08:28
she's a woman of color so beyond the
00:08:30
sort of The Superficial differences she
00:08:32
can't explain on a policy level what she
00:08:35
would do differently she's had so many
00:08:36
opportunities to say that they asked her
00:08:38
on The View they asked her on Stephen Co
00:08:39
bear Brett Bear asked her in his way and
00:08:42
she still can't explain what she would
00:08:44
do differently and I think that is the
00:08:46
fundamental problem she has in her
00:08:47
campaign is voters still don't know who
00:08:49
she is or what she would
00:08:51
do yeah what did you think of uh JD van
00:08:54
saying he wouldn't uh have certified the
00:08:56
election they seem to be going after him
00:08:57
on that over and over again
00:09:00
sex you're the only person talking about
00:09:03
that no no literally every interview
00:09:04
they've been chasing him down the hall
00:09:06
asking him I'm not the only person I may
00:09:07
have started it but what do you think of
00:09:08
him saying he wouldn't have CER that is
00:09:10
kind of like when he's in a combative
00:09:13
reporting moment that is the question he
00:09:15
gets a lot that's not that's not the
00:09:16
interview I saw I saw him the interview
00:09:18
he just did with Martha Raditz was she
00:09:21
was saying that Trump was the question I
00:09:24
asked you sax was I asked you Saks about
00:09:27
fix you're the only one who's fixated no
00:09:29
no journal what do you think no one who
00:09:32
is persuadable who doesn't have TDS
00:09:34
cares about that topic anymore what do
00:09:37
you think freeberg about him saying he
00:09:39
wouldn't certify January 6 concern it's
00:09:41
not it's not what they're asking JD if
00:09:42
you want to talk about interviews that
00:09:44
JD Vance has done talk about the one
00:09:46
that's actually going viral right now
00:09:48
and that was the interview he did with
00:09:49
Martha Raditz where she starts saying
00:09:51
that you know we've only had a few of
00:09:52
these apartment buildings taken over by
00:09:54
Foreign gangs and he's like do you
00:09:57
realize what you're saying you know
00:09:59
there's no comeback from that he
00:10:00
destroyed her it was very compelling
00:10:02
what he did it and every interview he
00:10:05
does is like that yeah I mean she was
00:10:08
basically saying that she spoke to what
00:10:10
was it the city manager and she's like
00:10:12
he said only a handful of buildings have
00:10:14
been taken over and JD Vance was like
00:10:16
what do you mean like only a handful of
00:10:19
buildings like isn't that anything more
00:10:21
than zero like too much or anything more
00:10:23
than one is obviously a problem like it
00:10:25
was just such an obvious rebuttal to the
00:10:29
the narrative that they're kind of
00:10:30
overexaggerating a particular issue I
00:10:32
have no data on this but he was very
00:10:34
compelling in that uh response I thought
00:10:36
it was pretty strong but I will say like
00:10:38
generally neither candidate seems to be
00:10:41
introducing a new message or seems to be
00:10:43
introducing new content they're just
00:10:46
kind of standing up you know kind of
00:10:48
repeating things that they've said
00:10:50
showing that they can handle and manage
00:10:52
different kind of combative reporting
00:10:54
tactics and that's kind of what's going
00:10:56
on and everyone seems to have made up
00:10:57
their mind I don't I see a lot of people
00:10:58
on both sides
00:10:59
say again this side this person did
00:11:03
great my person did great against this
00:11:04
combative reporter and the other person
00:11:06
did poorly against their combative
00:11:07
reporter and everyone's kind of biased
00:11:09
in their view I it just feels like this
00:11:11
election's baked and we should just go
00:11:12
to the polls and be done yeah what you
00:11:14
think free though but there there's no
00:11:16
October surprise coming out right saak
00:11:18
Chim J three weeks yeah can happen but
00:11:21
there hasn't been anything right like
00:11:22
that's kind
00:11:23
of the shocking moment yet this month
00:11:26
but freeberg the question I was going to
00:11:27
ask you is since you're not like hosting
00:11:31
Trump you know
00:11:33
fundraisers Do you think what did you
00:11:35
think when JD Vance said he didn't think
00:11:37
that Trump lost the 2020 election does
00:11:39
that concern you at
00:11:43
all um there's no there's no way to
00:11:47
answer this um with with the kind of
00:11:50
clean framing I think you're looking for
00:11:52
what what I saw from JD is that he wants
00:11:54
the reporter and the people that he's
00:11:56
talking to and I hear this from him yeah
00:11:58
to zoom out out a little bit and
00:12:00
recognize that there are significant
00:12:03
control and uh control systems and
00:12:06
biases that he believes and others
00:12:08
believe are strongly affecting the
00:12:11
election process and as a result the
00:12:12
election outcome and I think that that
00:12:15
message isn't uh is lost because people
00:12:18
want him to say Trump lost the election
00:12:20
you're not admitting it you're bad but
00:12:23
those people also aren't hearing the
00:12:25
point that he's making which is that
00:12:27
there are biases and we heard these
00:12:29
biases by the way with Democrats in
00:12:32
Prior elections as well where they
00:12:34
highlighted that they belied that there
00:12:36
were biases with respect to
00:12:37
misinformation being Amplified on social
00:12:39
media and then the next election cycle
00:12:41
they were able to step in and influence
00:12:43
what was being changed on those social
00:12:44
media platforms and so there's this big
00:12:47
kind of War media war going on through
00:12:50
social media platforms and I think that
00:12:52
that's what both sides are highlighting
00:12:54
is their big concern and now there's
00:12:56
this other big concern about is there
00:12:59
appropriate voter verification that the
00:13:01
people who are voting and it's it's a
00:13:03
it's a question to ask that shouldn't be
00:13:05
dismissed it is a good question to ask
00:13:08
great as a as a person who doesn't have
00:13:09
a like a a strong bias for a political
00:13:12
party here I feel like I want to hear
00:13:14
answers to those questions like you know
00:13:17
what is the structure of how the the way
00:13:19
that most people are getting their media
00:13:21
today which is through social media
00:13:22
platforms what is the mechanism for
00:13:24
censorship what is the mechanism for
00:13:26
filtering for moderation and be public
00:13:28
and about it and then separately what
00:13:31
are the
00:13:32
mechanisms foring who gets to vote and
00:13:34
how they get to vot I think those are
00:13:36
both good things to ask I would just
00:13:37
like to take a step back and say that
00:13:40
that was one of the most incredible
00:13:41
answers I've ever heard
00:13:44
freeberg unfortunately it may not land
00:13:47
for the reductive masses but it was
00:13:51
exceptionally powerful and thoughtful
00:13:53
thank you yeah I'm here for Chim I'm
00:13:56
here for you well I and the I mean
00:13:59
independent of who wins we need to get
00:14:01
this uh rules of Elections really tight
00:14:04
starting next year I think make it a
00:14:07
Federal
00:14:08
holiday require people to have ID that
00:14:11
doesn't seem like such a big deal I
00:14:12
don't know saxs what else should happen
00:14:14
federal holiday right now you've got
00:14:17
Biden's doj is literally suing the state
00:14:19
of Virginia which is required by
00:14:22
Virginia law to clean the voter roles of
00:14:25
illegal immigrants and they've been
00:14:27
doing that and Biden doj has Sue to stop
00:14:29
that in California like you said we now
00:14:32
have a new law signed by Gavin Nome to
00:14:34
make it illegal to ask for voter ID so
00:14:38
Democrats seem to be undermining the
00:14:39
Integrity of Elections not fortifying it
00:14:42
so when you ask you know why do
00:14:44
Republicans distrust elections maybe it
00:14:46
has something to do with the way that
00:14:48
Democrats are acting but I agree with
00:14:50
you I think that cleaning up the voter
00:14:53
roles having a minimum standard for
00:14:57
voter verific
00:15:01
is something that I think should be done
00:15:03
according to the Constitution the states
00:15:05
basically run their own elections but it
00:15:06
doesn't make sense to me that in a onep
00:15:09
Party Machine politics state where
00:15:11
basically one party controls the state
00:15:14
that they could set up a system that
00:15:16
effectively entrenches their power
00:15:18
forever in federal elections it just
00:15:21
seems to me that the federal government
00:15:23
has a compelling interest that must be
00:15:26
constitutional in ensuring a minimum
00:15:29
standard of honesty in federal elections
00:15:32
so I think it would be great to do
00:15:33
something about this next year I think
00:15:35
that if you want people to stop
00:15:37
questioning elections or engaging in
00:15:39
election denial you need to make the
00:15:41
elections above reproach so let's do
00:15:44
that so anyway Heritage Foundation uh
00:15:46
which is obviously right leaning has a
00:15:49
bunch of election fraud cases they've
00:15:52
been documenting and they basically
00:15:54
cannot come up with like
00:15:56
um actual evidence that
00:16:00
is changing any election results but we
00:16:03
should make it a br reproach I agree all
00:16:06
right our boy Elon had a a big week
00:16:08
Tesla inil two new Concepts at its we
00:16:10
robot event and Elon Elon caught a 23
00:16:15
story rocket the Starship here's the
00:16:17
robo taxi and the robo bus both of them
00:16:19
look really awesome and uh he caught one
00:16:23
of the I think this is the fifth
00:16:26
Starship or the fourth launch fifth off
00:16:28
the fth
00:16:30
right look at this unbelievable it's
00:16:33
like Chopsticks
00:16:35
catching isues are with Elon and his
00:16:38
politics just to appreciate and we can
00:16:40
talk about why this is so important in
00:16:42
this segment but technically the
00:16:45
achievement of this like Skyscraper
00:16:47
falling out of the sky and perfectly
00:16:48
aligning itself to go into that
00:16:50
Chopstick catching device it is an
00:16:54
absolute Marvel of human Ingenuity I
00:16:56
mean just and the work and the effort
00:16:58
that people put into this over you know
00:17:00
several decades it's just such an
00:17:02
incredible feat look at this thing I
00:17:04
don't know if you guys were as
00:17:04
emotionally moved by this as I was I
00:17:06
thought it was incredible was incredible
00:17:07
I think I probably watched this a
00:17:08
hundred times totally from every angle
00:17:11
every angle and so the reason this is so
00:17:14
important is because these things cost a
00:17:17
lot of money and when they land here you
00:17:19
can clean them up and I guess his goal
00:17:21
is to have them take off again after he
00:17:23
fills them with propellant an hour later
00:17:26
freeberg so on a science basis this is
00:17:29
extraordinary what uh you know if this
00:17:31
works and you start more specific you
00:17:34
don't want it to have
00:17:37
feet a it's heavy and then B you have to
00:17:41
lift them up in a way that just
00:17:42
complicates the entire refueling and
00:17:44
cycle time process so by catching it you
00:17:46
put it right back into place and just go
00:17:48
again unbelievable unbeliev you just
00:17:50
catch it and go again I can kind of walk
00:17:52
through these numbers so obviously the
00:17:55
big objective over time is how cheap can
00:17:59
you get it to put material into space we
00:18:03
need a lot of material to go into space
00:18:05
if we're going to do things in space
00:18:08
particularly if we're going to go build
00:18:09
a colony on Mars and so this shows you
00:18:12
over time the cost per kilogram which is
00:18:15
the key metric in this industry to
00:18:16
launch
00:18:18
material into low earth orbit and you
00:18:21
can see here how SpaceX has dramatically
00:18:24
reduced the cost I remember when the
00:18:25
small sat era began in the 2010 you guys
00:18:29
remember all these startups that were
00:18:30
starting to build like little small STS
00:18:31
and put them up to do imaging and coms
00:18:34
and stuff when this took off it was
00:18:37
about 10,000 bucks a kilogram to put a
00:18:40
small set into space or to put material
00:18:42
into space and then SpaceX has dropped
00:18:44
the cost to the point that it's now
00:18:46
close to $1,000 a kilogram so a 10x
00:18:49
reduction in cost in just the last
00:18:50
decade or so and that's why SpaceX just
00:18:53
dominates the the launch market but
00:18:55
elon's always said that $1,000 dollar a
00:18:57
kilogram is too high
00:18:59
but his objective has been to get the
00:19:01
cost down to 10 bucks a kilogram because
00:19:03
at 10 bucks a kilogram you could launch
00:19:05
what some people estimate is needed to
00:19:07
get to Mars which is about half a
00:19:09
million tons of material and people to
00:19:11
set up a colony on Mars and it actually
00:19:14
becomes feasible to get you know half a
00:19:17
million tons of material at at 10 bucks
00:19:20
a kilogram so if you look at this new
00:19:23
starship and Starship heavy booster it's
00:19:26
about 150 200 ton payload the booster
00:19:29
holds you know 3,400 tons of
00:19:32
propellant and uh the cost of that
00:19:35
propellant is pretty low you know it's
00:19:38
uh it's only about a million dollars in
00:19:40
fuel so then if you can get the cost of
00:19:42
the booster and the Starship down enough
00:19:45
and you can reuse it enough and you
00:19:48
amortize the cost of making that device
00:19:50
over the the lifetime of of the device
00:19:52
the cost per launch comes down and
00:19:54
that's what brings the cost per kilogram
00:19:55
down so the booster there's a group
00:19:57
called payload and they do estimates on
00:19:58
this so I won't speak out of turn in
00:20:00
terms of like having inside knowledge
00:20:02
but the payload has estimated that
00:20:04
Starship and the booster cost about 90
00:20:07
million bucks today and they think that
00:20:09
they have a path to getting it down to
00:20:10
35 million so if you can reuse that
00:20:12
thing 10 times that's a $35 million cost
00:20:16
per launch plus a million for fuel you
00:20:18
could easily see and this thing can
00:20:19
launch 200 tons that's how you start to
00:20:21
get to 10 bucks a kilogram over the next
00:20:24
couple of years but it was critical to
00:20:26
be able to reuse that heavy booster and
00:20:28
that's why Elon just demonstrated it's
00:20:29
we can actually catch that heavy booster
00:20:32
refuel it and launch it an hour later
00:20:34
and if you can do that over and over
00:20:36
again you're spending 10 bucks a
00:20:37
kilogram to put material into space you
00:20:40
can get fuel into space and then get
00:20:42
those Starships to fly off to Mars and
00:20:43
deliver all this material including
00:20:46
setting up a base that would allow you
00:20:48
to actually make more fuel on Mars
00:20:49
because everything we need to make fuel
00:20:50
is on Mars so it's the beginning of the
00:20:54
next series of really important
00:20:56
Milestones that'll hopefully get
00:20:57
Humanity onto Mars it was just so
00:20:59
amazing to see it come together the
00:21:01
economics are legit I mean this is like
00:21:03
a THX reduction in cost it's incredible
00:21:06
yeah it's going to be amazing and
00:21:08
they're going to do some I guess new
00:21:09
stuff with Starling some even lower
00:21:12
Earth orbit satellites that go even
00:21:13
faster and have less latency so that's
00:21:16
going to be super exciting starlink
00:21:18
apparently I mean I know everyone here
00:21:19
is a sh shareholder in SpaceX but
00:21:21
starlinks running at 4 million Subs
00:21:23
right now that's like 100 bucks a month
00:21:25
4 million subs and if you do the math I
00:21:28
mean how many people have isps that are
00:21:32
slower than starlink right how many
00:21:34
people have cell phone providers that
00:21:35
they're paying roughly the same amount
00:21:37
that aren't as good as starlink if we
00:21:38
can get satellite to phone and you can
00:21:41
get starlink more broadly available this
00:21:44
could be 100 million subscriber business
00:21:45
I mean this could be absolutely one of
00:21:47
biggest businesses on the on the on the
00:21:49
earth it could be the largest
00:21:51
subscription business in the history of
00:21:52
humanity I think the largest ones right
00:21:55
now are like Netflix you know 250 Disney
00:21:58
Plus
00:21:59
150 Verizon 100 million so yeah it's
00:22:02
could be hundreds of millions of
00:22:03
subscribers it could even could be the
00:22:06
first 500 million subscriber product in
00:22:07
the we could look back one day and be
00:22:09
like why did we run all this copper wire
00:22:11
everywhere like we don't need it yeah
00:22:13
obviously crazy especially if it can get
00:22:16
it be like crazy that we were like ever
00:22:18
I mean the whole nutty thing about this
00:22:19
past week it's like we could look back
00:22:20
one day and be like why did we ever
00:22:21
drive cars and why do we ever have
00:22:23
copper wire laid all over the Earth to
00:22:24
like move internet signals around you
00:22:26
know this uh this efficiency game that's
00:22:28
going to be realized over the next
00:22:29
decade is and just incredible just
00:22:33
incredible Cham any thoughts on the robo
00:22:35
van or
00:22:36
the Cyber cab the model 2 I guess some
00:22:40
people are calling it but it's you know
00:22:42
the Cyber cab specifically not calling
00:22:44
it number two and doesn't have a
00:22:46
steering wheel or pedals I would have
00:22:49
bought two of those immediately if it
00:22:50
had a steering wheel and pedals I want
00:22:52
to drive it yeah looks like the hybrid
00:22:53
of like a model Y and the Cyber truck so
00:22:56
I kind of really love the Aesthetics of
00:22:58
it so beautiful yeah you like it my my
00:23:01
my reaction was
00:23:04
actually I don't know just
00:23:07
seeing these releases now over 10 or 15
00:23:11
years plus of knowing him
00:23:15
nothing it's it's I guess it's like not
00:23:17
that surprising maybe it's it's weird to
00:23:19
say like I just expect him and his teams
00:23:22
to figure it out like they're just all
00:23:24
so good it's and the thing to remember
00:23:26
it's not just him that's incredible but
00:23:28
he attracts a kind of Technical and
00:23:32
operational Wonder kind people for sure
00:23:36
and that's just that's just a really
00:23:37
special thing so I had had that reaction
00:23:40
which was I was
00:23:42
really proud and happy for them for the
00:23:45
team yeah for sure for the team and for
00:23:48
him these guys are like incredibly
00:23:49
Fearless fail bigly right yeah if you're
00:23:52
gonna fail fail bigly yeah and then the
00:23:56
other thing that I thought was crazy was
00:23:58
how many people were trying to dunk on
00:24:01
him this
00:24:02
weekend and that surprised CAU me off
00:24:05
guard because I think that they were
00:24:08
personalizing a lot of anxiety that they
00:24:11
are feeling through these companies
00:24:14
successes which didn't make much sense
00:24:15
to me well In fairness he did hurt some
00:24:17
people's feelings with posting of memes
00:24:20
so yeah I mean it's it makes no sense
00:24:23
like the guy is like going to save
00:24:24
30,000 Road Debs a year in the United
00:24:27
States with driving and people are
00:24:29
losing their minds over a couple of
00:24:31
memes or who he's voting for for
00:24:32
president I don't think you have to
00:24:33
worry about that you can just look at
00:24:36
the products they speak for themselves
00:24:38
anything um sax any response uh on the
00:24:41
uh on the Tesla front any thoughts on
00:24:43
the the bus or Optimus I mean they're
00:24:46
both very exciting products I don't
00:24:48
think I've got a lot to add yeah I love
00:24:50
the bus freeberg I think that thing
00:24:52
could become like mobile homes R you
00:24:54
know adus and you could just send them
00:24:58
to can you can we buy them or no well no
00:25:02
not right now but I think that might be
00:25:04
you know that that's going to be a kids
00:25:06
in
00:25:07
one I need it for all my kids yeah well
00:25:10
see if this was a platform like the
00:25:12
Mercedes Sprinter vans have become that
00:25:14
you see a lot in Europe then you could
00:25:16
buy an empty one of these it's got
00:25:18
enough battery life to last a month and
00:25:21
then let's say you had your in-laws over
00:25:23
and there was one that was set up as
00:25:24
like a one-bedroom you could click on
00:25:27
Airbnb or you know Tesla BNB press a
00:25:30
button and the thing could drive to your
00:25:32
driveway you could rent it for a week
00:25:33
and then it could leave or let's say a
00:25:35
thousand people or 10,000 people were
00:25:37
displaced because of a hurricane
00:25:38
freeberg you could send a 100,000 of
00:25:41
these to the parking lots at Walmart
00:25:43
which typically does a good job and and
00:25:44
feeding people and getting them supplies
00:25:46
after hurricanes since those are so
00:25:47
ubiquitous you could put a 100 of these
00:25:49
in every parking lot and have a place
00:25:51
for people who are fleeing uh natural
00:25:53
disasters to stay so I thought that was
00:25:55
like the most compelling product of the
00:25:57
whole thing for me was the possibility
00:25:59
of a sled like a skiff that you could do
00:26:02
anything you want with would be really
00:26:04
exciting for society so congratulations
00:26:06
to the team and it's it's going to take
00:26:09
a while but I I I could see them having
00:26:11
that Robo ta I think congrats to amid he
00:26:15
just got promoted I saw that yeah he's
00:26:17
in charge of all AI I think he's in
00:26:19
charge of all manufacturing and sales in
00:26:22
North American oh okay well there it is
00:26:25
shout out to amid abar yeah I mean
00:26:27
listen I have I have big news I just
00:26:30
bought my first Tesla oh you did did you
00:26:33
go with a plaid Model S model S plaid
00:26:36
yeah yeah I test drove it for two weeks
00:26:39
and sold itself and are you using the
00:26:43
FSD I use FSD every day I used F and it
00:26:45
was like really impressive so super
00:26:47
impressive I I've tried Tesla a couple
00:26:48
times over the years and I never really
00:26:50
never really worked for me the quality
00:26:52
just didn't feel like what I like given
00:26:54
what I had before the carwise you were
00:26:56
an Audi guy right but Audi guy yeah
00:27:00
yeah that's it's uh was a big milestone
00:27:04
I really I thought the FSD was the
00:27:06
selling and then the speed on the pla is
00:27:08
is just insane it's better than my RS7
00:27:10
like I um with all of my Teslas I put it
00:27:13
in chill mode because when it's in that
00:27:15
plaid mode or whatever like coffee
00:27:17
go but if you have passengers the kids
00:27:19
in the back seat will get like literally
00:27:21
nauseous because it's too fast you got
00:27:23
to be you got to be careful with the
00:27:25
passengers there it's so fast it was
00:27:27
awesome awesome all right well there you
00:27:30
have it Robo taxi star we didn't get to
00:27:32
it last week we almost put the show back
00:27:34
a day or two just to do it in other news
00:27:37
Uber is exploring a bid to purchase
00:27:39
Expedia breaking news this was dispelled
00:27:42
as we got here on the show they said
00:27:44
this was like very preliminary
00:27:46
thirdparty talks and that there's no
00:27:47
serious talks going on about this
00:27:49
Financial Times reported that advisors
00:27:53
were trying to look at if a deal
00:27:54
structure would be possible between Uber
00:27:56
and Expedia speedia has got a $20
00:27:59
billion market cap they popped 8% on the
00:28:01
news obviously Uber on the other hand
00:28:03
trading at 170 billion market cap or so
00:28:05
that dropped
00:28:07
3% if you didn't know daro was the CEO
00:28:09
of Expedia from 2005 to 2017 he's still
00:28:12
on the
00:28:13
board and it looks like this was a trial
00:28:17
balloon you know Uber's two biggest
00:28:19
businesses rides and Uber Eats but they
00:28:21
also do freight and train bookings dar's
00:28:24
been pretty clear he wants to create a
00:28:28
super app like you have in China or some
00:28:30
other markets xed has got a lot of cool
00:28:33
products hotels.com orbits Tri velocity
00:28:36
or uh and I think the most interesting
00:28:39
one freeberg you and I were talking
00:28:40
about this is VRBO vacation rental by
00:28:42
owner it was like Airbnb before Airbnb
00:28:45
existed and if you look at this chart
00:28:49
since D left the D effect Expedia has
00:28:52
gone exactly sideways the revenue has
00:28:55
grown modestly what do you think of this
00:28:59
chamama I'll just go right to you with
00:29:01
this one since you like to stupid stupid
00:29:04
okay there you have it folks reason
00:29:07
number one it's stupid uh and reason
00:29:09
number two it's stupid I mean this is a
00:29:11
20 billion market cap business you
00:29:13
probably have to pay a control premium
00:29:15
of 50% so the question is if you were
00:29:19
going to spend $30 billion today in the
00:29:22
public markets what would you spend it
00:29:24
on and I think the most important lens
00:29:27
that you have to use to answer that
00:29:28
question is what reinforces a mo that I
00:29:32
have while also being inoculated from
00:29:35
the risks of AI and I cannot think of a
00:29:41
more fragile business model than the UI
00:29:44
layer on top of widely available data so
00:29:49
the problem that Expedia has is the same
00:29:52
that booking and a bunch of these other
00:29:54
folks have which is that the principal
00:29:55
heartbeat of the company flight
00:29:57
information and other things are
00:30:00
licensed to them by Third parties and so
00:30:02
what they are is a UI and a front
00:30:05
door I think it's way too early in the
00:30:07
evolution of AI to know that that's safe
00:30:09
and in fact I think a more reasonable
00:30:11
assumption is that those things are
00:30:12
pretty
00:30:13
fragile and part of what may explain the
00:30:16
doldrums of the stock is that I think
00:30:18
people are anticipating a world where
00:30:20
for example I don't know if you saw but
00:30:22
perity launch something this week it's
00:30:24
just in test mode they whitelisted me
00:30:27
into it but it's basically a checkout
00:30:30
concept so you tell perplexity what you
00:30:33
would like it to buy and then it will go
00:30:35
and complete the transaction for you so
00:30:39
in the example of flight bookings you
00:30:41
could go directly to United because a
00:30:43
perplexity will just show you all of the
00:30:46
flights they'll show you the exact
00:30:48
prices and then it'll go and execute
00:30:50
that for you with your payment method in
00:30:52
a world that looks like that where these
00:30:55
companies have the money to pay for the
00:30:58
data
00:30:59
feeds the existing v1.0 generation uis I
00:31:04
think are in trouble so it would just be
00:31:06
a very bad Capital allocation decision
00:31:08
now that's okay to get things wrong but
00:31:11
not for $30 billion wrong you can
00:31:13
probably do it for couple hundred
00:31:15
million dollars wrong or maybe even a
00:31:17
billion dollars wrong because you can
00:31:18
absorb that as a 150 or $60 billion
00:31:22
company but 30 billion is too big of a
00:31:23
price to pay for that kind of risk I
00:31:25
would agree with you and there's other
00:31:27
things they could buy like we ride or
00:31:29
pony Ai and a bunch of these AI
00:31:31
companies that are doing self-driving so
00:31:33
why not double down on that freeberg the
00:31:35
one thing you and I talked about was
00:31:36
kind of VRBO which is a very cool
00:31:39
Marketplace and that feels directly in
00:31:41
the Uber Kill Zone what do you think
00:31:44
about them just maybe carving out and
00:31:45
buying vbo and having an
00:31:47
Airbnb uh why don't they just buy whmo
00:31:50
why don't they just go to Google and
00:31:51
give them 30 billion doar of uber stock
00:31:53
and just carve in whmo isn't that a
00:31:55
better idea I think that's what's going
00:31:56
to happen I've been hearing Rumblings of
00:31:58
that so so I think that Dara knows
00:32:02
Expedia better than anyone he ran the
00:32:04
business for what a decade or or so yep
00:32:08
and so he knows how that business
00:32:10
operates and so if he's looking at this
00:32:13
thing and the stock price has been flat
00:32:15
roughly since he left in
00:32:17
2017 if you look at the underlying
00:32:19
financial performance you could kind of
00:32:21
start to construct a rationale for
00:32:23
buying Expedia this cheap and it would
00:32:25
be very acreative to Uber even
00:32:28
if there are these big strategic risks
00:32:30
on the horizon so just to give you some
00:32:33
numbers on it all Uber has got about 150
00:32:35
million monthly active users Expedia has
00:32:39
about 45 50 million customers a year
00:32:43
that use the service and pay for stuff
00:32:45
so there's a real opportunity to think
00:32:48
about the Uber customer base that's
00:32:52
installed as being almost an opportunity
00:32:54
to Market to them Expedia services and
00:32:57
cross sell
00:32:58
so Expedia on an annualized basis is
00:33:01
spending about 8 billion a year in sales
00:33:03
and marketing and about 720 million a
00:33:06
year in GNA costs so and they're running
00:33:10
about three billion ebit right now run
00:33:12
rate so if you cut about half the GNA in
00:33:15
an acquisition because you don't need
00:33:16
all the people that overlap with Uber's
00:33:18
people you know and you cut about 30% of
00:33:21
the sales and marketing dollars because
00:33:22
you can cross sell into the Uber install
00:33:25
base you could see a scenario where you
00:33:28
could increase expedia's IA by 75 to
00:33:31
100% maybe getting it as high as $6
00:33:34
billion and while expedia's market cap
00:33:36
trades at two 20 billion this is off of
00:33:38
you know obviously the recent news that
00:33:40
they might get acquired if you kind of
00:33:42
assume a 40 50% price premium to the
00:33:44
last 90-day average of the stock price
00:33:46
which is kind of typical or common for a
00:33:47
deal like this they're probably paying
00:33:49
26 billion for the company and they got
00:33:52
about 4 billion in net cash so you're
00:33:53
kind of paying about 22 billion
00:33:55
Enterprise Value to buy Expedia so 22
00:33:59
billion of Enterprise Value and if you
00:34:01
can bump the iata up to 6 billion a year
00:34:05
that's a pretty low multiple I mean you
00:34:06
could kind of see yourself rationalizing
00:34:08
this just from a financial basis that
00:34:10
you're paying four times IA to buy this
00:34:12
thing and Dara knows this thing and he
00:34:14
would have great command over what needs
00:34:16
to be done over there and he would have
00:34:18
a great sense of what to change and
00:34:21
what's gone wrong and there's a lot of
00:34:23
interesting assets inside of Expedia vbo
00:34:26
is a great one that's been under
00:34:27
monetized and underutilize I don't know
00:34:28
if you've used the ux on vbo versus
00:34:31
Airbnb there's obviously some influence
00:34:33
D could have with people that he knows
00:34:35
well that could go in and fix that that
00:34:36
interface and make it a better service
00:34:39
and even as AI starts to step in and
00:34:41
hotels maybe integrate better with
00:34:43
agents and so on and they show up in a
00:34:45
more ubiquitous way there's other things
00:34:46
that Expedia does like build vacation
00:34:48
packages and travel packages that are
00:34:50
high margin products that they sell that
00:34:52
are a little bit different than what
00:34:53
you're used to with a just booking a
00:34:55
flight booking flights makes no money
00:34:57
for anyone
00:34:58
but vacation packages is where all the
00:35:00
money's at and so theoretically Expedia
00:35:02
could be smarter about how they build
00:35:04
vacation packages and personalize them
00:35:06
for families and that's where they can
00:35:07
make real margin like 20 30% margin so I
00:35:10
could see a story where this all starts
00:35:12
to click for the board at Uber saying
00:35:14
maybe it makes sense Dar knows what he's
00:35:16
talking about we could buy this thing
00:35:17
for four times you know proa IA this
00:35:20
could be hugely ACC accretive for us so
00:35:22
I think that's why this is happening why
00:35:24
this conversation may be happening that
00:35:25
that's just me trying to understand I
00:35:26
think it's a good steal man what the
00:35:27
rationale might be could you just go
00:35:29
back and explain how would they drive up
00:35:31
IU so much so they're spending about um
00:35:34
8 billion a year run rate on sales and
00:35:37
marketing at Expedia right now and
00:35:39
Uber's got 150 million active installed
00:35:41
users that are using this the Uber
00:35:43
Services every month so the idea would
00:35:44
be customers yeah actually paying
00:35:47
customers so if Uber could cross- sell
00:35:50
some number of Expedia services to their
00:35:52
installed base at Uber which they could
00:35:54
test and you know do a little experiment
00:35:56
and see if it works they may be able to
00:35:58
reduce the marketing dollars that
00:35:59
Expedia spending to acquire customers
00:36:01
through other thirdparty sources like
00:36:03
Google and bang and other places so
00:36:06
there's a rationale that's where I think
00:36:08
the logic breaks down I don't think Uber
00:36:10
customers want to be cross- sold on
00:36:13
booking a hotel see this is where I
00:36:14
think like MBA thinking is very
00:36:16
different than product thinking like an
00:36:18
MBA looking at this would say well you
00:36:21
know Expedia and Uber are both in the
00:36:24
travel business their apps both involve
00:36:26
booking trips so we can we can cross
00:36:29
sell Expedia from Uber and then cut
00:36:33
expedia's marketing budget I think
00:36:36
that's how an NBA would sort of handwave
00:36:37
over it I think the way like a product
00:36:39
manager would look at this is to say
00:36:41
what does the user want to do and I know
00:36:43
that when I use the Uber app I just want
00:36:45
to basically make a couple of clicks set
00:36:47
my destination get my car and then move
00:36:50
on and there was a there was a product
00:36:52
initiative a few years back at Uber
00:36:54
where they tried to capture the users's
00:36:56
attention during the ride and they you
00:36:59
know they added they that whole ad thing
00:37:01
that ad making a ton of money and was
00:37:05
like it was like an entertainment stream
00:37:07
or something inside the app no but they
00:37:09
dialed it way back because I don't see
00:37:11
it anymore it was just clutter would you
00:37:14
TR trust D's judgment on the sacks like
00:37:16
if Dar were to think about what the Uber
00:37:18
user would want and he could rationalize
00:37:20
some percentage of them they could cross
00:37:22
sell expediate Services into I mean
00:37:24
ultimately I think it's it's his
00:37:26
decision right like well I mean what
00:37:28
you're describing is basically a private
00:37:29
Equity play like Dar is going to come in
00:37:33
as like a private Equity buyer
00:37:34
effectively and he knows the business
00:37:37
and we'll run it to reduce cost May
00:37:39
boost some revenue and maybe there is a
00:37:40
justification for that but if you're
00:37:42
trying to justify it based on cross-
00:37:44
selling I don't think users of the Uber
00:37:46
app want to be cross- sold when they
00:37:48
book a taxi okay they just want to be
00:37:50
able to affect their transaction as
00:37:52
efficiently as possible and just to
00:37:54
finish the point I was making on that
00:37:56
whole entertainment stream they had they
00:37:58
dialed that product way back because it
00:38:00
got in the way you'd be you know in the
00:38:02
Uber app trying to figure out how to
00:38:03
change your destination or something and
00:38:05
all of a sudden you're being shown like
00:38:07
some entertainment product it's not what
00:38:09
users wanted um and it was always kind
00:38:12
of a a Banana's idea to think that just
00:38:16
because the user books in Uber that you
00:38:20
own their attention during that ride
00:38:22
because during that ride you're really
00:38:24
competing with every app on the iPhone
00:38:27
right I mean
00:38:28
and that's the problem is you want to
00:38:29
get in and out of the Uber app it's
00:38:31
about transacting efficiently what about
00:38:32
not the moment when you're when you're
00:38:34
writing in an Uber but the moment when
00:38:36
you say as an Uber user hey I need to
00:38:39
book travel I got to go on a vacation to
00:38:41
Austin this I'm never going to think to
00:38:42
go on my Uber app for that the only time
00:38:44
I open but what if they put that feature
00:38:45
in there what if they had a tab that
00:38:46
said book your travel here you know when
00:38:48
I open the Uber app when I want to hail
00:38:50
a taxi that's
00:38:51
what but I there are a large number of
00:38:54
people who maybe don't have a you know
00:38:56
an assistant to book their hotels in
00:38:58
advance and like that would be most
00:39:00
people
00:39:01
jkl I would not think to go into Uber to
00:39:04
do that it would just be clutter well no
00:39:05
but they already have a hotels.com
00:39:07
partnership and then the Uber one
00:39:09
membership's been growing pretty nicely
00:39:10
and the advertising is doing a billion
00:39:12
dollars a year and that is just a money
00:39:14
printing machine because you know that
00:39:16
this person's in an Uber black you know
00:39:18
that they're going to the Four Seasons
00:39:19
like these users who are you know they
00:39:22
have a real ad business at Uber Yeah
00:39:24
Yeah the more Uber tries to promote some
00:39:27
unrelated product and what I mean by
00:39:29
unrelated is it doesn't help you get to
00:39:31
where you're going that moment it's
00:39:33
clutter in the app what about Uber eat
00:39:35
sex yeah working pretty well it's
00:39:38
working great yeah no the cross
00:39:39
promotion's working that is highly
00:39:41
related to that's basically booking a
00:39:42
car to pick up some food yeah it's still
00:39:45
the taxi business basically I think the
00:39:47
hotel's integration is good I think
00:39:49
there's something here we have gone
00:39:52
through a cycle where apps and attention
00:39:54
were highly Consolidated with a few now
00:39:57
the has swung the other way and apps are
00:40:00
very narrow features that are really
00:40:03
well described okay so that's sort of
00:40:05
where we are that's why we have the
00:40:07
billions and billions of apps in the App
00:40:09
Store the question is does the pendulum
00:40:11
swing back to these super apps and I
00:40:14
think the big question is not whether it
00:40:15
swings back to the super apps but
00:40:17
whether there's a new substrate that
00:40:19
puts itself between the user and all of
00:40:22
these services so that they become data
00:40:24
oriented services and this is where the
00:40:27
question is if you rely on an agent or
00:40:30
you rely on a beef tub version of search
00:40:34
whether that's chat GPT or gemini or
00:40:37
whatever why would you care where all of
00:40:40
this stuff was done you're not going to
00:40:42
care and this is I think the big mistake
00:40:45
in this thinking is that that real
00:40:47
estate is actually much more fragile
00:40:49
than I think we all think it is and I
00:40:52
think a much better way to think about
00:40:54
this is in the future none of this UI
00:40:56
real estate is actually worth anything
00:40:59
the question is do you have a data asset
00:41:01
that's valuable or do you do a service
00:41:03
that's valuable because agentically
00:41:05
there'll be all of these unemotional
00:41:07
Bots and workflows doing this work for
00:41:09
you so I think saak is right in the
00:41:11
sense that whether it's there or not it
00:41:14
won't matter could could he run it like
00:41:16
a private Equity business where now Uber
00:41:18
corporation owns two Services sure but
00:41:22
you're probably just better off for
00:41:25
these agents to go and cannibalize all
00:41:27
of search because you'll be able to just
00:41:29
get a data feed for what Expedia has to
00:41:31
create Expedia for a few million dollars
00:41:34
or tens of millions of dollars you don't
00:41:35
need to pay 20 or 30 billion dollars for
00:41:38
this yeah the thing that I've talked to
00:41:40
DAR about is when they said he told me
00:41:43
when they do something that's adjacent
00:41:44
to what they're already doing it
00:41:46
explodes in terms of Engagement so like
00:41:48
they're doing like teens and rental cars
00:41:51
and then package delivery and every time
00:41:53
they do one of those adjacencies it just
00:41:56
takes off with the membership ship and
00:41:58
to your point freeberg they have those
00:42:00
150 customers who have their credit
00:42:02
cards in there and man it just it's
00:42:04
explosive so that's what I booking a
00:42:06
vacation is an adjacency to ordering
00:42:09
food I think hotels would be I don't
00:42:11
think flights would be because I think
00:42:12
the flights work really well with the
00:42:14
existing apps but things where you have
00:42:16
proprietary inventory like VRBO or
00:42:18
hotels I think those would be very
00:42:20
powerful and those have 20 30%
00:42:22
commissions which are in line with the
00:42:24
commissions that Uber's already getting
00:42:27
and the commissions on things like
00:42:29
flights is very small like a couple of
00:42:31
dollars so I think for hotels and vbo
00:42:33
would be brilliant for the other stuff
00:42:34
I'm not so sure to your point Cham well
00:42:37
just to finish my my thought yeah yeah
00:42:39
please was that you'll notice that Uber
00:42:41
Eats a separate app from Uber right I
00:42:44
mean I know you can get to the eats part
00:42:45
within Uber but they created a separate
00:42:47
app for a reason is because whether
00:42:49
you're using Uber Eats or Uber the goal
00:42:51
is immediate gratification I want to get
00:42:53
to where I'm going I don't book it 6
00:42:55
hours in advance I call it right now and
00:42:59
the most important thing to me is wait
00:43:00
time this is why Uber is beating lft is
00:43:03
time on the weight time is lower same
00:43:05
thing with food I'm not thinking about
00:43:06
booking my dinner right now I'm not
00:43:08
going to do it in advance if you browse
00:43:09
to the restaurants the most important
00:43:11
piece of data they show you in addition
00:43:13
to the rating is the number of minutes
00:43:15
it takes for it to get to you so those
00:43:18
apps are all about immediate
00:43:19
gratification and that's why you don't
00:43:21
want other things getting in the way of
00:43:23
them now I guess the claim is somehow
00:43:26
you're going to be able to cross sell
00:43:28
the booking of a vacation or a hotel
00:43:31
that you have to think about days or
00:43:32
weeks in advance it's just a completely
00:43:34
different state of mind I just don't
00:43:36
think that there's much opportunity to
00:43:38
cross sell
00:43:39
that or to use the technical jargon I
00:43:42
don't think the attach rate is going to
00:43:44
be high what about the brand value sack
00:43:46
so because you know those people are
00:43:48
going to another app to book their
00:43:49
flight in their hotel what if that other
00:43:52
app was called Uber travel there might
00:43:53
be some value in that I can see that
00:43:55
yeah if I think that would be the
00:43:57
rationale where I could see the Expedia
00:43:59
brand yeah so maybe maybe what you could
00:44:01
do is take vbo Rebrand it as Uber hotel
00:44:05
or Uber travel whatever you want to call
00:44:07
it exactly exactly and then maybe you
00:44:09
could push people to download that app
00:44:12
well the thing I you know I would the
00:44:14
counter I give to this you could
00:44:15
quantify that the value of the installs
00:44:17
right so yeah exactly I mean well you
00:44:19
could quantify because Expedia spending
00:44:21
on it every year right now I use the
00:44:22
bonvoy app to book hotels I use United
00:44:25
to book my flights and I use Uber to my
00:44:27
rides and obviously for eats when you
00:44:29
are using it there's a tab up top in the
00:44:32
UI is quite nice in Uber where it's
00:44:34
rides and eats right next to each other
00:44:35
I could see a third one like hotels or
00:44:37
travel being right there and all of a
00:44:40
sudden yum yum you just get all that
00:44:42
inventory right in there and I
00:44:44
frequently will book my hotel and I'll
00:44:47
book my ride for the next day in advance
00:44:49
on Uber and I do those things and then
00:44:51
when I get to my hotel I'm ordering food
00:44:53
to my room so I think this actually
00:44:56
could work really well as a third tab in
00:44:58
the app for travel and you could
00:45:00
actually because when you use e in the
00:45:02
Uber app it's its own Tab and it's the
00:45:05
exact same experience I I believe in
00:45:06
super Ops um and they just launched a
00:45:08
bus that's like a bus service in New
00:45:10
York for 18 bucks to go to JFK that's
00:45:12
really awesome I think we're a little
00:45:13
bit disconnected because we don't book
00:45:15
our own travel but okay let's keep
00:45:16
moving here down the docket all right
00:45:20
this uh big Tech investing in nuclear
00:45:23
power is off to the races Chim Amazon
00:45:26
just announced a $ million investment in
00:45:28
three nuclear power projects all of
00:45:31
these are focused on
00:45:32
smrs those are the small modular
00:45:35
reactors Amazon is working with Dominion
00:45:38
Energy to develop a small modular
00:45:40
nuclear reactor near an existing nuclear
00:45:43
power plant in Virginia in total Amazon
00:45:45
plans to invest 35 billion in Virginia
00:45:48
based data centers by
00:45:50
2040 and they want to power these by
00:45:53
smrs and this is a big Trend Google is
00:45:56
purchasing energy directly from chyos
00:45:59
Power another company building smrs
00:46:02
Microsoft as you heard was Reviving one
00:46:04
of the Three Mile Island nuclear power
00:46:06
plants so this is kind of interesting
00:46:09
chath we went from nuclear not being on
00:46:12
the table everybody being against it the
00:46:14
Germans shutting down their reactors
00:46:16
post
00:46:17
Fukushima and now big Tech is the
00:46:20
customer for these with AI and they're
00:46:22
putting down very large deposits and
00:46:25
payments to build them in America and I
00:46:27
haven't heard any opposition maybe you
00:46:30
could just speak to CH what we've seen
00:46:32
here in terms of opposition to these
00:46:34
versus the opportunity and everybody is
00:46:36
writing checks yeah well they're not
00:46:38
writing checks so this is what I don't
00:46:40
want to be a Debbie Downer here but
00:46:43
these press releases need to have an
00:46:45
asterisk on them so in the hierarchy of
00:46:48
deals right just to unpack this for a
00:46:50
second there are deals where you give me
00:46:52
X and I give you
00:46:54
money that's not what this is then if
00:46:57
you degrade that kind of deal structure
00:46:59
in a lot of heavy industry you have
00:47:02
deals that are called take or pay which
00:47:04
is there is something that's working and
00:47:06
you need to basically take this or you
00:47:08
need to give me the monetary equivalent
00:47:10
of what I'm selling you that's not what
00:47:13
this
00:47:14
is what this is is sort of this
00:47:17
conditional obligation where the
00:47:18
beginning of the deal starts with a very
00:47:20
important statement which is if it works
00:47:23
and if these approvals happen and
00:47:26
there's a whole bunch of nested ifs then
00:47:29
payments can happen so while these are
00:47:32
important deals because they show that
00:47:34
there are potential buyers at the Finish
00:47:38
Line what it doesn't do is solve the two
00:47:41
things that you need to get to the
00:47:43
finish line which is the actual risk
00:47:47
Capital to finish building these things
00:47:49
and technically drisk them and then the
00:47:52
regulatory approval that you need to
00:47:54
make sure that they're allowed so I
00:47:56
think think that these deals are good I
00:47:58
think it's a great signaling but I think
00:48:00
it's important to understand the nuances
00:48:02
of these things these are
00:48:04
not things where there's money really
00:48:07
trading hands and until that you see
00:48:09
that where irrespective of what happens
00:48:12
the balance sheet is investing from an
00:48:14
Amazon or a Google where there's Corp
00:48:17
Dev folks writing hundred million doll
00:48:20
or billion dollar checks into these
00:48:22
companies it's not yet quite there this
00:48:24
is more the step before which is sort of
00:48:28
can you create some marketing and and
00:48:30
some buzziness to hopefully induce
00:48:32
somebody to then rip in billions of
00:48:34
dollars of risk Equity
00:48:36
Capital freeberg your thoughts on smrs
00:48:39
and these customers showing up and then
00:48:42
I guess you could comment on the nature
00:48:43
of the deal structure here because some
00:48:46
of them are you know contingent on the
00:48:50
nuclear power plant turning on some of
00:48:51
them do have deposits is my
00:48:53
understanding we'll look that up and
00:48:54
fact check it there could be a range of
00:48:56
deals here
00:48:57
yeah I don't know the nature of the
00:48:59
deals I did I think talk about this a
00:49:02
year ago it's it was also like what my
00:49:04
prediction for the year was to buy the
00:49:06
uranium stocks predicated on what I
00:49:10
think is a really important point which
00:49:12
is as GDP per capita grows energy
00:49:16
consumption per capita grows and if you
00:49:18
looked at the projections of GDP per
00:49:21
capita in industrialized nations there
00:49:24
was no way there is no way to meet the
00:49:27
energy demand and this was even pre all
00:49:30
this crazy AI buildout which is probably
00:49:32
part of the GDP growth but there is no
00:49:35
way to meet the energy demand without
00:49:38
nuclear uh there is not
00:49:41
enough solar geothermal or wind buildout
00:49:45
potential that's happening that the stop
00:49:48
Gap measure is going to have to be and
00:49:50
probably the right long-term solution is
00:49:52
to have a significant amount of Base
00:49:54
load come from nuclear and so
00:49:57
what's the fastest way to do that
00:49:58
nuclear buildout well in China they have
00:50:00
the regulatory Authority and the Mandate
00:50:02
stated they're going to build 300 gws
00:50:05
with 300 facilities or whatever the
00:50:06
number is and that's what they're doing
00:50:08
very large facilities that make a gwatt
00:50:10
of power each in the US it seems that
00:50:13
because of the regulatory structure here
00:50:15
and the way that utilities are regulated
00:50:17
and the way that the states have
00:50:19
authority and the environmental laws and
00:50:20
all the other things that it might be
00:50:22
the fastest path to solving this energy
00:50:25
gap problem is
00:50:27
smrs and that's why and these things
00:50:29
produce tens of megawatts so again a
00:50:31
gwatt is a thousand megawatts and you
00:50:35
know we need to kind of probably grow
00:50:37
our energy production in the United
00:50:39
States by several terawatts over the
00:50:43
next decade or two so this SMR may be
00:50:47
the fastest path now that could change
00:50:49
meaning we could end up seeing much
00:50:50
larger facilities get built out if
00:50:53
there's regulatory change in the US and
00:50:55
there's more availability but
00:50:56
fundamentally we are going to need to
00:50:59
use uranium to make electricity to meet
00:51:04
the demand of the growing the GDP that
00:51:06
it seems we're going to be growing it I
00:51:08
think this is just such a necessity it's
00:51:10
great to see the SMR is getting some
00:51:12
attention I just don't know if they're
00:51:13
actually going to get turned on how long
00:51:15
it's going to take and you know I don't
00:51:17
know what this election cycle is going
00:51:18
to bring in terms of regulatory change I
00:51:20
think we talked about it with several of
00:51:21
the candidates when we were doing the
00:51:22
interviews saxs if we are able to get a
00:51:26
bunch of these smrs built here in the
00:51:28
United States maybe if Europe follows
00:51:31
suit what would this do on a
00:51:32
geopolitical basis to our relationship
00:51:36
with the Middle East our energy
00:51:38
Independence and of course the AI race
00:51:42
to you know general intelligence I'll
00:51:45
let you take it whichever direction you
00:51:46
want to go well I don't think we're
00:51:48
going to because I don't think anyone
00:51:50
wants a nuclear power plant in their
00:51:52
backyard it's really simple I mean no
00:51:54
matter what the benefits are for AI or
00:51:57
for America's Global competitiveness I
00:51:59
just don't think your typical Community
00:52:01
wants a nuclear power plant in their
00:52:03
backyard and I don't think it matters
00:52:04
that much if it's a small modular one
00:52:06
either so you think they'll get blocked
00:52:07
by local communities yeah and probably
00:52:09
for good reason I mean I don't want a
00:52:12
nuclear power plan in my backyard do you
00:52:15
I feel like this has suddenly become a
00:52:17
little bit of a luxury belief where
00:52:20
liberal Els are always talking about how
00:52:21
we need to have nuclear power now but
00:52:23
they know they're not going to have a
00:52:25
nuclear power plant in their backyard
00:52:27
so it's easy for for all of us to
00:52:29
genuflect about what a great idea this
00:52:31
is but let's face it these things are
00:52:33
going to be built probably in poor or
00:52:37
workingclass communities and inevitably
00:52:39
there's going to be some accident I you
00:52:41
can tell me how safe they are to you're
00:52:42
blue in the face I don't believe it you
00:52:45
know planes aren't supposed to fall out
00:52:47
of the sky either and it does happen and
00:52:50
you know they're going to set up a a
00:52:51
power one of these power plants
00:52:53
somewhere and you know it's probably
00:52:56
going to have a Dei program and
00:52:57
something's going to happen I mean
00:52:59
something's going to happen and then the
00:53:02
The Fallout it's is literally gonna fall
00:53:05
out on on the people in that poor
00:53:06
community so I don't think this is gonna
00:53:08
happen this show really has a diversity
00:53:10
of views doesn't it it's like look this
00:53:13
is a perfect example of liberal business
00:53:15
Elites demanding something that isn't
00:53:19
going to affect them it's not goinge
00:53:21
your take on a
00:53:23
non-binary trans lesbian with
00:53:27
whatever you're com put putting a small
00:53:31
nuclear
00:53:32
reactor 200 miles outside of Austin
00:53:34
Texas
00:53:35
go put your G had how close do you want
00:53:38
it to your Ranch J Cal I mean I think
00:53:41
there's plenty of land outside of the
00:53:45
triangle here in Texas where there is no
00:53:48
density and you could put one and I'd
00:53:50
have no problem with there being one 100
00:53:51
miles 200 miles who's going to work
00:53:53
there who's going to service it I mean
00:53:55
literally you would have to it doesn't
00:53:57
take that many people to to service
00:53:59
these so
00:54:00
yeah go wrong I think there's plenty of
00:54:02
space in the United States to put these
00:54:04
and maybe freeberg you could talk and
00:54:06
educate us on the safety here do you
00:54:10
believe what saak is saying that it's
00:54:12
going to have a meltdown and he doesn't
00:54:13
believe sa's point of view to be honest
00:54:17
is the point of view that will be held
00:54:20
by a large number of people just like
00:54:23
they have been with a lot of other is it
00:54:25
the right point of view though tell us
00:54:26
from a science perspective well no no I
00:54:28
don't I don't think it is I think that
00:54:30
the same argument would have been made
00:54:31
around we shouldn't have airplanes at
00:54:33
all because they can fall from the sky
00:54:35
we should keep everyone on the ground
00:54:36
where they're safe why would you want to
00:54:38
get on an airplane why would you want to
00:54:39
have airplanes flying over your home we
00:54:40
should all ban airplanes flying over our
00:54:42
home they could crash in our home it's
00:54:44
the same sort of argument and the reason
00:54:45
I'm not going to argue the point is
00:54:47
because I I because of the point I made
00:54:48
earlier which is that It ultimately
00:54:50
becomes an economic necessity that for
00:54:53
us to meet all of the demands of AI all
00:54:55
of the Dems of Industry we want to
00:54:57
reindustrialize the United States etc
00:54:59
etc we need to increase electricity
00:55:01
production capacity on the continent and
00:55:04
there is no way to generate enough
00:55:06
electricity on this continent fast
00:55:08
enough using other means than there
00:55:10
would be if we just got these these
00:55:12
system set up so so you believe they
00:55:13
will go through out of
00:55:15
necessity that's your take I think
00:55:17
globally this is the case and we're
00:55:18
seeing it in China now where the U
00:55:19
whether the US to worry about a nimi
00:55:22
problem the CC says this is what we're
00:55:24
going to do
00:55:26
and we may we may end up China is the m
00:55:28
and nimi my yeah and we may be the we
00:55:31
may end up being the Lite State and
00:55:32
we'll end up just saying you know what
00:55:33
we're not going to adopt new technology
00:55:35
including things like Gene editing and
00:55:37
cell cell therapies and I'll go through
00:55:40
the list of new technology sets could
00:55:42
make the argument that there's a low
00:55:44
probability of a high-risk event but the
00:55:46
fact is that the progress that it
00:55:48
enables is worth so much more than the
00:55:50
risk that we would be taking on there's
00:55:52
a simpler solution to all of this
00:55:54
without having to go and create these
00:55:56
reactors which is I don't think that we
00:55:58
have a very good grasp of the material
00:56:00
science broadly speaking I don't think
00:56:02
we really understand how to build Next
00:56:04
Generation materials I don't think our
00:56:06
Specialty Chemicals capabilities are all
00:56:08
that strong the way that they're going
00:56:10
to be over the next five or 10 years
00:56:11
just with better compute so I think that
00:56:13
there's going to be a lot of intrm steps
00:56:15
that increase the generally available
00:56:17
energy density without going to nuclear
00:56:20
I think there's going to be a lot of
00:56:21
businesses to do that that'll be much
00:56:22
safer easier to regulate easier to test
00:56:26
easier to underwrite and I think the
00:56:28
government will get behind those so I'm
00:56:30
not as negative as you are on the only
00:56:31
solution being nuclear the countries and
00:56:34
uh the businesses that have a lower cost
00:56:37
of electricity and a more abundant
00:56:39
source of electricity will end up
00:56:40
winning as the economy continues to
00:56:43
progress towards a much more kind of
00:56:44
digital State and an automated State
00:56:46
over the next decades so if we're going
00:56:48
to be slower we're going to suffer the
00:56:50
consequences of that as a country so
00:56:52
we'll see how it plays out I just think
00:56:53
that economic incentives will ultimately
00:56:55
Drive hopefully a would a um possible
00:56:57
solution be to give an economic
00:57:00
incentive to the people who would be in
00:57:02
the surrounding areas obviously these
00:57:04
things could be 50 or 100 miles from you
00:57:06
know anybody's homes but even the people
00:57:08
who work there or people who might
00:57:11
have I don't know some homes that were
00:57:14
near it could you give them no taxes Etc
00:57:17
essentially give them incentives to
00:57:19
allow this to go through freeb in your
00:57:21
mind do you think that kind of incentive
00:57:22
would
00:57:23
work taxes or some kind of pay off or
00:57:27
subsidy I I'm not sure I haven't thought
00:57:29
much about like what what the incentives
00:57:31
or subsidies would be you're going to
00:57:33
have to give them an incentive because
00:57:34
no one's going to want to live within
00:57:35
200 miles of one of these things what
00:57:37
would be the number right I think that
00:57:39
people people have a very deep
00:57:42
fear of you know what is deemed to be
00:57:45
cataclysmic technology I do think a lot
00:57:47
of this was rooted in the evolution of
00:57:48
the atomic age where we basically have
00:57:49
these nuclear warheads mounted to
00:57:51
missiles that can travel at 20 times the
00:57:53
speed of sound and land on your City and
00:57:56
wipe out your city I mean that that is
00:57:58
also nuclear technology and people can
00:58:00
flate the two as being similar and even
00:58:02
Three Mile Island there were you know no
00:58:04
deaths it was a shocking scary thing for
00:58:06
people but statistically speaking and
00:58:09
historically speaking and technically
00:58:11
speaking it's a lot more complicated to
00:58:13
explain to people what happened and why
00:58:15
and why now is different and no one has
00:58:17
the time for that no one wants to hear
00:58:18
that they want to hear a very simple do
00:58:20
you really want a nuclear power plant in
00:58:21
your backyard no way what about you no
00:58:24
way all right let's let's vote to stop
00:58:26
it and they're
00:58:28
right I mean you compare you compare it
00:58:30
to commercial airlines but commercial
00:58:33
airlines that's a technology that's been
00:58:34
around for what like a 100 years do you
00:58:36
have any data on the safety record of
00:58:38
nuclear technology because I'm not sure
00:58:39
you do I think my point is like you're
00:58:40
just making a statement out of let's see
00:58:42
the data where's the data yeah let's do
00:58:44
it let's do it right now I mean I think
00:58:46
this is an important discussion I'd like
00:58:47
to actually point my point about
00:58:49
commercial airlines is we've had that
00:58:50
technology for over a hundred years it
00:58:52
was honed and refined over many decades
00:58:55
and commercial airlines now have become
00:58:58
this this is going on almost 100 this is
00:59:00
going on a 100 years of use right you
00:59:02
know that there have been incidents
00:59:03
every decade or two and that is why
00:59:06
that's not true that's not true you're
00:59:07
you're saying something that's not true
00:59:09
the reason nuclear has been discredited
00:59:10
is because of Three Mile Island and
00:59:12
Fukushima not first of all it's not been
00:59:14
discredited I mean these names live in
00:59:17
infamy it's social fearmongering like
00:59:19
you were doing right now with no data
00:59:21
and no facts to try and make it a
00:59:23
political issue that drives everyone to
00:59:25
one side shut their minds down and not
00:59:27
listen to the actual facts and data and
00:59:29
this fearmongering is what keeps us from
00:59:31
being competitive it what keeps us from
00:59:33
having progress you talk a lot about
00:59:35
people talk listen listen I I'm I'm just
00:59:39
saying I don't want one near me now if
00:59:41
there hold on a second I'm not saying
00:59:42
you 46 deaths at Cheryl I'm not against
00:59:45
doing it somewhere where the community
00:59:47
is in favor of doing it so if you can
00:59:49
find a place that wants to do this I
00:59:52
would not stop it just to be clear I'm
00:59:54
just saying I don't want one year me
00:59:56
facts we gotal just give me a second
00:59:58
yeah yeah I don't think you're going to
00:59:59
find many takers even among poor
01:00:02
communities it's a great adversarial
01:00:04
Point let's go to the fact 440 nuclear
01:00:07
power reactors operating in 32 countries
01:00:10
around the world since the time that we
01:00:12
first had nuclear reactors which has now
01:00:13
been almost a century there have been
01:00:15
three incidents Chernobyl Fukushima and
01:00:17
Three Mile Island at three m Island
01:00:19
there were zero deaths at Fukushima
01:00:21
there was one death and at Chernobyl
01:00:22
there were 46 deaths The Fallout from
01:00:26
those events has been that we shut down
01:00:28
energy production we shut down nuclear
01:00:30
reactor technology and we fear-monger
01:00:32
our way into losing the most abundant
01:00:36
available energy do those deaths
01:00:38
actually include the second and third
01:00:40
order effects of all this radiy there
01:00:42
were 15 people who got thyroid cancer 35
01:00:45
operators and First Responders who got
01:00:46
radiation sickness and then the
01:00:48
background radiation effects there's a
01:00:50
lot of kind of noise around this but
01:00:52
it's not as significant number as you
01:00:54
may otherwise think same with fuk Kima
01:00:56
why is it that whole region is still
01:00:58
uninhabited then they had a radiation
01:01:00
event there's radioactive material that
01:01:02
has covered that area that will be
01:01:03
radioactive for a long period of time
01:01:05
now to understand what happened there
01:01:08
and why that won't happen again requires
01:01:10
talking about the difference in the
01:01:11
technology between gen one Gen 2 gen 3
01:01:13
and Gen 4 systems a lot of what's being
01:01:15
rolled out now are these gen 3 nuclear
01:01:17
reactors and the Gen 4 systems which we
01:01:20
highlighted a little while ago do not
01:01:21
have a meltdown possibility right we we
01:01:23
talked about this the one that went
01:01:25
online in China in December those new
01:01:27
systems the Gen 4 reactors cannot melt
01:01:30
down you cannot have an incident like
01:01:31
you did with the Gen one and gen 2
01:01:33
systems and the Gen 3 systems are
01:01:35
abundantly safe China is building
01:01:37
hundreds of them it is a it is a totally
01:01:40
like understandable science if we want
01:01:42
to spend the time looking at the data
01:01:43
and understanding the engineering and
01:01:45
the material science work and all the
01:01:47
effort that's gone in billions of
01:01:49
dollars over decades the biggest
01:01:50
stumbling block and the biggest wall has
01:01:53
been the fact that people have this
01:01:54
fearmongering activ
01:01:56
that they tell people just dismiss it
01:01:58
it's too scary we don't want it in our
01:02:00
backyard let's move on to the next
01:02:02
opportunity that's what's killed it and
01:02:04
if you just put these things 50 miles
01:02:06
away the radiation even in the meltdowns
01:02:09
didn't go past those is my understanding
01:02:12
so we even if you want to just the
01:02:15
easiest Steel Man the new systems don't
01:02:17
melt down you don't have that
01:02:18
possibility and the SMR I am in 100%
01:02:21
don't even work these smrs they don't
01:02:23
work they're you how can you say for
01:02:25
sure what the safety record's going to
01:02:27
be oh that's just to be clear SMR don't
01:02:30
work yet we have theoretical ways in
01:02:32
which we can profile and model that they
01:02:34
work but we don't have a functional one
01:02:36
that people can look at and inspect as
01:02:39
part of that we haven't been able to
01:02:41
test how they fail those are also
01:02:43
theoretical so I think let's put smrs
01:02:46
off and let's just be very accurate we
01:02:48
don't have a functioning working version
01:02:50
of one because they don't work yet maybe
01:02:52
they'll work in the future let's hope
01:02:54
that they do you're talking about is is
01:02:56
a step before that which is the Gen 3
01:02:58
reactor which has there are SMR
01:03:01
operating in China Russia and India
01:03:03
today and there's about 65 being built
01:03:05
at this moment right so and that's
01:03:07
outside the US so that's why the US is
01:03:09
is is kind of observing and trying to
01:03:11
catch up and adopt these technologies
01:03:12
that are being used by call it economic
01:03:15
competitors and economic Partners around
01:03:17
the world it's important for economic
01:03:20
prosperity in the US for us to have a
01:03:22
degree of competitiveness in electricity
01:03:23
prices if China races toward 5 cents per
01:03:26
kilow for electricity and we're sitting
01:03:28
here at 20 cents a Kow for electricity
01:03:31
what's that going to do to our ecomic
01:03:32
comp we are at 5 cense in the
01:03:34
generation and you're saying solar right
01:03:37
we can fix that tomorrow we already we
01:03:39
already rely on a nuclear reactor that
01:03:40
works and to sais point it just happens
01:03:42
to be millions of miles away so it can
01:03:45
if it goes we're all going to go anyways
01:03:47
yeah the scalability of of solar in
01:03:49
terms of getting us to a terawatt of
01:03:50
production capacity is the the limiting
01:03:52
block chth that in order to get to a ter
01:03:56
problems I don't think that's you don't
01:03:57
need to it's not a bad thing that other
01:03:59
countries are taking the early adopter
01:04:01
risk that would
01:04:04
be yeah that's going but if they're if
01:04:07
China runs away with this and they have
01:04:09
so many of these running and then
01:04:11
they're able to power Ai and solve
01:04:13
problems we're not we're going to have
01:04:15
to get our act together and start uh
01:04:16
standing these up they just have to
01:04:19
every Navy submarin got a nuclear
01:04:20
reactor on board that's how we have so
01:04:22
much space in this country these things
01:04:24
could be 100 200 miles away but I don't
01:04:26
think energy is a limiting factor in our
01:04:28
ability to innovate I don't think it is
01:04:31
today in these data centers certainly
01:04:34
it's not the limiting factor in our
01:04:35
ability to innovate it's not the
01:04:36
limiting factor in like for example
01:04:39
we're asking us to charge up every car
01:04:41
every night with electricity with a
01:04:42
battery rather than using G make my
01:04:44
point so we just saw open AI launch
01:04:47
strawberry is the reason why Microsoft
01:04:50
or Google or meta not responded with
01:04:54
their own version
01:04:56
an energy problem no we're still rate
01:04:59
limited by Innovation and just raw
01:05:01
intellectual horsepower and capability
01:05:04
meanwhile we are trying to solve the
01:05:06
energy problem and people are taking
01:05:09
different approaches there's storage
01:05:12
that's coming online very aggressively
01:05:14
the solar capability itself is ramping
01:05:16
up aggressively we're also forcing these
01:05:19
utilities to actually be deconstructed
01:05:21
so that there's more efficiency in the
01:05:22
energy markets all of this if you unpack
01:05:25
wide cost 20 cents a kilow hour it's not
01:05:28
because of a generation problem it is
01:05:30
not it's graft it's corruption it's old
01:05:34
Legacy infrastructure all of it can be
01:05:36
replaced in a much simpler and safer way
01:05:38
so I think by the time that you are rate
01:05:40
limited by energy you'll have a plethora
01:05:43
of solutions my issues with the smrs is
01:05:46
the ones that are promising these
01:05:48
NextGen whizbang performance
01:05:50
characteristics they're all theoretical
01:05:52
free so even when you say there are smrs
01:05:55
working abroad there's no like next
01:05:56
Generation reactors working abroad they
01:05:58
don't work what do they where is an
01:06:00
example of these modern Next Generation
01:06:03
reactors actually working where well we
01:06:06
talked about the Gen 41 that went live
01:06:08
in China there's several smrs in several
01:06:10
countries that are active producing
01:06:12
power you can call it a small modular
01:06:14
reactor what I'm talking about these
01:06:15
nextg materials the things that chyros
01:06:17
and these other guys are trying to do
01:06:18
where is a functioning I'll show you
01:06:21
they have them I mean like we have one
01:06:23
in India we have one in China I'll show
01:06:25
you the I'll send you links to them here
01:06:27
there's about 50 of them that India's
01:06:29
building right
01:06:31
now and they're they're competitive with
01:06:33
Kyros right they all have kind of common
01:06:34
Design Concepts but they're different
01:06:36
companies anyway I'm just saying like
01:06:38
they're they're getting harm in just
01:06:40
freeberg maybe you can educate Us in the
01:06:43
distance it could be from a city
01:06:45
reasonably in terms of building a grid
01:06:47
to move the energy from could it be 200
01:06:51
miles from a major city 300 100 what's a
01:06:55
what's a want you can put Power
01:06:56
production wherever you
01:06:58
want as long as you got the copper to
01:07:00
move it right move the electrons yeah
01:07:02
I'm just trying to think reasonably move
01:07:04
it is uh I guess what I was getting at
01:07:05
but okay well there you have it folks a
01:07:08
good debate here on the Allin a good
01:07:10
debate I still love you all we'll lay
01:07:12
we'll lay Copper from some country that
01:07:15
has an SMR all the way to right all the
01:07:18
way funny you said Washington State I
01:07:20
was just thinking like if Canada and
01:07:22
Mexico have you know economic incentive
01:07:24
to do this or they're more bold maybe
01:07:27
they build them in their countries and
01:07:29
then they'll be selling it to the United
01:07:31
States right they'll take the I mean if
01:07:33
you're chyros and you can't put this in
01:07:35
the United States but you could put it
01:07:37
in Mexico and then come up with a you
01:07:39
know a way to get it past Trump's border
01:07:41
wall you may be able to put it into the
01:07:42
United States but we won't know until we
01:07:44
know it
01:07:46
works just I'm sorry I keep going back
01:07:48
to this tricky little issue if it
01:07:50
doesn't work well I mean I think free
01:07:52
brg on with you and that the even with
01:07:55
the fers that have happened those are
01:07:56
with Gen one and gen 2 reactors there
01:07:59
hasn't been one in a long time and the
01:08:00
fall I believe those spend those up
01:08:03
right now these Gen 2 gen 3 reactors do
01:08:05
them all day long I think that they're
01:08:06
very safe they're very three and
01:08:08
four the threes are what we should 100
01:08:12
miles from my backyard no problem four
01:08:14
that's producing China is producing a
01:08:16
gigawatt of power would you want 10
01:08:18
miles outside Austin I don't think you
01:08:20
should put it 10 miles outside of any
01:08:22
City I know that they're doing that in
01:08:23
India they're doing that in China I
01:08:24
would think
01:08:26
I you know if you look up the footprint
01:08:28
of Fukushima I mean that was a complete
01:08:30
disaster they put that below sea level
01:08:32
they told them not to put it there and
01:08:33
they put it near a bunch of people who
01:08:36
you know were living within miles of it
01:08:38
single- digit miles of it there's no
01:08:40
reason for this to be any closer than 50
01:08:42
or 100 miles and I would be totally fine
01:08:44
with it being 50 to 100 miles from where
01:08:46
I'm on my ranch right now absolutely no
01:08:48
problem with that I think this is a
01:08:50
classic luxury belief where it's easy
01:08:53
for you to espouse this for everybody
01:08:56
else for the nation because you know the
01:08:58
downsides aren't going to fall on you
01:09:01
no far away from where we use them and
01:09:03
maybe everyone will be safe would you
01:09:04
would you be comfortable with putting
01:09:06
them in the desert yeah but but in that
01:09:08
case there won't be okay then we're done
01:09:09
that's how we're running wind and
01:09:10
geothermal today we're putting these
01:09:12
sites in random places and solar and
01:09:15
then we're running cable and we're you
01:09:17
know proding solar just because they
01:09:19
don't want it to be an eyesore right
01:09:20
that's why we're doing that with solar
01:09:22
we don't want people to look at a giant
01:09:24
solar thing like I said I'm not against
01:09:26
doing it if you can find a community
01:09:28
that's willing to do it and if you put
01:09:29
it where there's no humans then yeah
01:09:31
that that's going to work we resolved
01:09:33
our issue we got the compromise here
01:09:35
here we are solving world problems
01:09:38
yes I'm going to get my guitar and we're
01:09:40
going to sing
01:09:42
kumr to work at this place you better
01:09:45
get some robot employees I can't wait
01:09:47
for you guys to lay millions of miles of
01:09:49
copper cabling now as a
01:09:51
soltion I'll lay that pipe genius you
01:09:54
need me to lay pipe I'll do genius no
01:09:56
Sak do you want to go visit a nuclear
01:09:57
power plant zero yeah go how's any
01:10:02
progress sax is not interested in any
01:10:04
progress okay if we can go back to the
01:10:05
50s that's what he wants let's get some
01:10:07
you're like virtue signaling I'm virtue
01:10:10
signaling because I'm Pro nuclear yes
01:10:12
it's a luxury belief you're promoting
01:10:14
something nuclear power is a luxury
01:10:16
belief you heard it your first because
01:10:18
they're going to put these things in
01:10:19
poor communities and so it's never going
01:10:21
to affect your life they're putting them
01:10:22
next to Data Center
01:10:25
in like Oregon like it's easy for you to
01:10:27
say oh I support nuclear look how
01:10:29
Progressive I am look how smart I am you
01:10:31
haven't internalized the downsides I
01:10:34
just want abundant electricity idty
01:10:37
politics for you sax everything you see
01:10:39
the land Po and Rich everything I'm
01:10:42
defending the poor you're going to put
01:10:44
these things in poor communities you're
01:10:46
genu flecting sax looking out for the
01:10:48
poor look at you Mr Mr Robin Hood over
01:10:51
here Rob defending the right of
01:10:52
communities to say no to this you are
01:10:55
sence experiment you're my favorite I'm
01:10:57
defending the right of local communities
01:10:59
to say no to your science experiment
01:11:01
okay that's what it comes down toe sober
01:11:04
is trying to put this episode 200 I love
01:11:07
it sums up the whole the 200 shows sack
01:11:10
let me ask you a serious
01:11:13
question it's not serious when you start
01:11:16
like that if Trump
01:11:18
loses what's the next four years on this
01:11:21
pod gonna be like what are we gonna do
01:11:24
here we lose this he's moving to New
01:11:26
Zealand there's going to be laware all
01:11:27
over the place absolutely they're going
01:11:29
to come for him do you really think so
01:11:31
David yeah I
01:11:32
do I mean look I'm definitely not the
01:11:35
top of the list elon's at the top of the
01:11:37
list right so he has he has no choice
01:11:39
but to go all in they're already doing
01:11:41
laware against him it's ridiculous but I
01:11:43
think the point is just that if they're
01:11:46
not defeated they're going to keep doing
01:11:48
it because there's no downside for
01:11:51
it I will comment on the California
01:11:53
Coastal commission ruling that was based
01:11:55
on elon's political tweets which is why
01:11:58
they stopped additional launches out of
01:11:59
vandenbberg first of all how the C
01:12:02
Coastal commission has authority over
01:12:05
vandenbberg and the operations it just
01:12:08
seems to me like there's something wrong
01:12:09
the coastal commission was set up with
01:12:11
the coastal act in 1976 in California as
01:12:14
a way to give the beaches back to the
01:12:16
people and the public and create a
01:12:17
commission to regulate building along
01:12:19
the beaches it has since grown into
01:12:22
effectively a much
01:12:23
larger uh entity with much more
01:12:26
Authority which potentially after the
01:12:28
Chevron ruling in the Supreme Court may
01:12:31
get peeled back and may get dialed down
01:12:33
we'll see what happens but as of now
01:12:35
they have the ability to block launches
01:12:36
out of vandenbberg which they did and in
01:12:39
their decision they said it was because
01:12:41
of elon's political tweets again
01:12:43
starting at the beginning of the show
01:12:44
about the success that they had with the
01:12:46
Starship this week it's incredible it
01:12:48
deserves to be recognized on the merits
01:12:50
of what they accomplished but to bring
01:12:51
in his political tweets to make a
01:12:53
decision about the progress of SpaceX
01:12:55
and allow public space to be used to
01:12:58
further that that cause and further that
01:13:00
activity seems to me abhorent and it's
01:13:02
ridiculous and it's exactly what's wrong
01:13:04
with the bureaucratic morass that a lot
01:13:07
of these institutions have grown into
01:13:09
and this
01:13:10
was Pro or
01:13:13
con
01:13:15
smrs exactly yeah no I'm serious do do
01:13:18
you think G
01:13:21
beiss what the coastal commission does
01:13:23
is they they they block they block
01:13:25
everything and they do pictures of the
01:13:27
entire Coastline if you build like a
01:13:29
shed on your beachfront property they
01:13:32
will know it and they come to you and
01:13:34
they're like no sheds you cannot build
01:13:35
any structures on the beach they're just
01:13:38
like really really hard it's a it's a
01:13:40
values decision that the state of
01:13:41
California made in 1976 the state of
01:13:43
California the the citizens voted and
01:13:45
said we want to preserve the coastline
01:13:48
and I think that that's a reasonable
01:13:49
value for them to assume and and vote
01:13:51
for and it was a majority vote and so
01:13:53
they established the coastal Commission
01:13:55
but how the the coastal commission
01:13:57
extended into having authority over
01:13:58
vandenbberg and launches from there for
01:14:00
SpaceX to me is part of this kind of
01:14:02
administrative you know growth like we
01:14:04
see all these administrative
01:14:05
bureaucracies get started that have a
01:14:07
very simple objective preserve the
01:14:08
California coastline but now they have
01:14:10
authority to determine whether or not
01:14:12
launches can happen at Air Force one
01:14:15
person at the coastal commission
01:14:17
referenced his tweets and the vote was
01:14:20
6'4 to increase these so who is this one
01:14:23
person did in an official context I
01:14:25
think she was like retweeting it there's
01:14:27
like a tweet from her yeah this is what
01:14:29
I'm don't she was taking credit for it I
01:14:30
mean in a way favor proud of it she said
01:14:33
the quiet part out loud so in a way she
01:14:36
does a favor which is she acknowledged
01:14:38
that all of this lawfare against SpaceX
01:14:41
and Elon is political she basically
01:14:43
pleaded guilty to it look she's proud of
01:14:45
it because she doesn't think there's
01:14:46
anything wrong with it she thinks this
01:14:48
is her job is as a bureaucrat she's
01:14:50
supposed to punish people who tweet
01:14:52
things that you're not supposed to say
01:14:54
that basically is what it comes comes
01:14:55
down to and um I mean this is the truth
01:14:58
about lawfare they're using the agencies
01:15:00
of the federal government to exact rep
01:15:02
reprisals against their political
01:15:04
opponents and if there's not if there's
01:15:07
not a punishment for that it's going to
01:15:08
keep going and they they filed a Elon
01:15:11
filed a
01:15:13
lawsuit and it's a six4 decision so I I
01:15:16
think by way the Biden Harris
01:15:17
Administration could stop that they
01:15:18
could say no more lawfare but they don't
01:15:20
do that because the tone was set from
01:15:23
the top and Trump is saying he's going
01:15:25
to be a dictator and he's going to do a
01:15:26
bunch of law fair when he gets in there
01:15:28
so both of these sides got to settle it
01:15:30
down that's exactly what he said this
01:15:31
has been
01:15:33
another okay J You Can't Rap a show like
01:15:35
that that's just not cool I'm just
01:15:36
trying to wrap up so we can move on well
01:15:38
then don't make a slight comment itself
01:15:39
like just do something else talk about
01:15:41
something else besides Trump at the end
01:15:42
like I'm just giving my opinion I'm not
01:15:44
allowed to give my opinion on the show
01:15:45
op what are you grateful for right now
01:15:47
in your life I'm grateful for you doing
01:15:49
all the work on the events and making
01:15:51
them spectacular I'm really excited for
01:15:54
saaks live from Maro oh God I will
01:15:57
totally go to Mar Lago for election
01:15:58
night can we get a booth there that
01:16:00
would be hilarious you keep saying it
01:16:02
it's not clear you would be invited yeah
01:16:04
exactly of course I'm invited Trump
01:16:05
loves
01:16:07
Mei with everybody neither neither you
01:16:09
nor I gave the hundreds of thousands of
01:16:11
dollars per ticket to go to dinner with
01:16:12
Trump please that Trump loves me he he
01:16:15
enjoy time very selective it's for
01:16:18
friends get jamas get an
01:16:20
invite man okay I'll do it remote that's
01:16:23
fine you can do it remote fine you want
01:16:25
Jake out there it's fine go with me wait
01:16:27
when is the election I want to be I
01:16:28
don't want to be at a party I'm not
01:16:29
invited to it's in two weeks and three
01:16:32
days four days November
01:16:34
5th Sur it's like just waiting every day
01:16:37
for it to drop whatever it's I just hope
01:16:38
whoever wins wins like significantly so
01:16:42
we signant please win by 30 electoral
01:16:46
vot cour no Supreme Court decision right
01:16:50
now the only candidate who looks like he
01:16:53
could get a landslide is Trump
01:16:55
otherwise it's going to be very close so
01:16:57
you're rooting for Trump if you want a
01:16:58
landslide I mean I'm going to I'm going
01:17:00
to reveal my vote on the election
01:17:02
special I will have really hard to
01:17:04
figure out I'm sure the audience will be
01:17:06
held in great suspense by
01:17:10
that did you guys vote yet did you guys
01:17:12
vote yet I have I got my ballot on my I
01:17:14
got my ballot on my desk here yeah I'm
01:17:16
ready to go I'm ready to go all right
01:17:18
everybody this has been another
01:17:20
wonderful episode oh meetups there are
01:17:23
200 episode meetups happening thank you
01:17:25
to all the fans who got together take
01:17:27
pictures and share them on social and at
01:17:29
mention us allin.com meetups every
01:17:32
couple of episodes fans get together
01:17:33
around the world and talk about their
01:17:36
favorite bestie it's typically fre birg
01:17:39
and we'll see you next time
01:17:42
byebye
01:17:44
byebye let your winners
01:17:47
ride Rainman
01:17:51
David and instead we open source it to
01:17:54
the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:17:56
with it love queen
01:18:00
[Music]
01:18:04
of
01:18:06
[Music]
01:18:07
Besties my dog taking
01:18:11
driveways man oh man myit will meet me
01:18:16
we should all just get a room and just
01:18:17
have one big huge orgy CU they're all
01:18:19
this useless it's like this like sexual
01:18:21
tension that they just need to release
01:18:22
somehow
01:18:27
[Music]
01:18:29
we need to get mer
01:18:33
[Music]
01:18:37
our I'm going all in
