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#AIS: Divvy Homes CEO Adena Hefets breaks down the state of the US housing market

May 29, 2022 / 32:11

This episode features Adina, CEO of Divi Homes, discussing wealth inequality, housing access, and the challenges of homeownership in America. Key topics include the rising wealth gap, the impact of asset ownership on net worth, and the challenges faced by potential homeowners.

Adina shares her personal story about her parents' struggles with homeownership in the 1980s, highlighting the importance of access to assets for achieving the American dream. She presents data showing that the top 10 percent of earners own a significant portion of wealth, while the bottom 50 percent own only 1 percent.

She explains how the lack of affordable housing and rising home prices have made it increasingly difficult for families to buy homes. Adina discusses the role of government policies and market dynamics in exacerbating these issues.

Divi Homes aims to address these challenges by providing a rent-to-own model that allows families to build equity over time. Adina emphasizes the importance of making homeownership accessible to more Americans.

The conversation also touches on the current state of the housing market, mortgage rates, and the potential for a housing market slowdown.

TL;DR

Adina, CEO of Divi Homes, discusses wealth inequality and homeownership challenges in America, emphasizing the need for accessible housing solutions.

Video

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awesome hi everyone my name is adina i'm
00:00:03
the ceo of divi homes it's a pleasure to
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meet y'all
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thank you for being here
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[Music]
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all right so while they're pulling that
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up i will just kick it off and get
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started because we're about three hours
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behind at this point um
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my passions are at the the crossroads of
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finance housing and and inequality and
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trying to solve all of these
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i'll get into what my company does at
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the very end of the presentation that's
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not what i really want to focus on
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but i want to start off with a little
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story that i think explains why this is
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so important to me
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um
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when it was about the 1980s my mom
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decided to go on a little road trip with
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her friends and she was in israel and
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she was backpacking and she was
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hitchhiking and a man picked her up
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she got into that car
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fell in love and got pregnant that man
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is my my dad my mom and dad quickly got
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married immigrated back to the u.s and
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found themselves very young 21 and 24
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pregnant and trying to figure out what
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they were going to do with their life
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they couldn't get a mortgage to buy a
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house and settle down and be able to
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raise a family but they were fortunate
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enough to find a woman who gave them
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seller financing on their house
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so this woman financed the purchase of
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the house to let my parents pay an
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installment and in that house they had
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three additional kids i'm the third of
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four
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and then eventually we're able to get a
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mortgage take cash out of that house and
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use the cash that they took out to pay
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for all four kids to go to college
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and i tell you this because to me this
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is the heart of the american dream which
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is being able to provide a better life
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for your children than what you actually
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have
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and so so much of what we're going to be
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talking about here is why that american
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dream has disappeared for so many
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americans and what we at dibby are doing
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to try to address that so let's dive in
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i have these bright blue slides the goal
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is to just give you the takeaway so you
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don't have to figure it out i try to
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stick to uh one chart per slide to keep
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it super simple and i'll explain it but
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this is the the takeaway that you should
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get from the next couple of data points
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i'm going to give you which is wealth
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inequality is rising across america
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i think you all know this chart which is
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that 99
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of wealth
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is owned by the top 50 and the bottom 50
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percent only owned one percent of wealth
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here in the united states so this this
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chart shows distribution of wealth by
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what your your
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um household income is so the top 10
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percent of owners uh sorry the top 10
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percent own 76 percent of wealth the
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next 40 on 23 of wealth you sum that up
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99 of wealth is owned by the top 50
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and what's even more interesting is that
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the rich are getting richer while the
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poor kind of stay at the same level of
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income and so what this chart actually
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shows is income percentiles so on the
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x-axis the zero is if you're at the very
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bottom end of the income spectrum at 100
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you're at the top end and then the blue
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line is how much income or family
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household wealth you had in 1963 almost
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50 years ago
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and the yellow line
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shows how much wealth you have today so
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if you were in the top one percent
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your household wealth was on average two
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million dollars 50 years ago
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today it's about 10 million or a 5x
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growth
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and if you were in the bottom 50th
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percentile you haven't seen your
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household income change almost at all
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and so you might be asking okay why is
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this the case is it that wealthy people
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are making more in salary i i would say
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while there are some salary
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differentials the main driver is asset
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appreciation access to assets when i say
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assets i'm going to use that pretty
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liberally it can mean stocks it can mean
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housing it can mean small businesses
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direct investments but all of that i'm
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going to group together as investments
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in assets
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and so you can see this is a really
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simple chart where i took what were the
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20-year returns by income as well as
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asset and you can see that household
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income has not appreciated much in the
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last 20 years whereas the s p 500 as
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well as if you owned equity in your home
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you'd see an increase in your value of
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over a hundred percent
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you want to see something even crazier
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you get leverage on your home equity
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which is something that most of you some
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of you might get get uh leverage against
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your equity that you mess in the stock
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market but most of you aren't
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um you can actually lever up your home
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equity right and so you can take out
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debt that's cheap because it's backed
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and guaranteed by the government
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eighty percent leverage at what has been
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almost three percent cost of capital
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no one else can get that sort of cost of
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capital at that sort of leverage um
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you're forced to amortize so you build
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up savings in the property and a house
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has dual utility you cannot live in the
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s p 500 you can live in a home
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and so if we click on um and so the
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takeaway has to be those who own assets
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are more likely to have a higher net
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worth and so this is a chart that i sold
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from the new york times so credit goes
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to them but if you look on the left hand
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side the blue bars all of the bars kind
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of sum up to 100 going across so the
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blue bars is the percent of family so
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bottom 50 percentile of income earners
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50
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50 to 80th percentile 30
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so on
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and what this is saying is that the
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bottom 50 percent of
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families and households own one percent
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of overall equities in the market and
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when you look at directly held stocks so
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stocks in the stock market they own zero
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percent right and if you look at the top
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one percent of
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of of income earners
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they own 38 of overall equities which
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includes like retirement accounts and
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everything remember i said that big
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asset class
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and they own 51
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of all directly held stocks
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so if you ask why are the rich getting
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richer it is because they own assets
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assets compound over time there's also a
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ton of tax benefits around owning assets
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long-term capital gains which i'm sure
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you all know
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um another way to look at this which i
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think is really interesting is your net
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worth
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um
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by renter versus homeowner homeowners on
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average have 75 times
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the net worth of a renter this is all
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census data it's all publicly available
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i'm happy to share it
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and i think what is is so interesting
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here is that i'm not saying the answer
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is home ownership
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you want to invest in crypto great you
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want to put your money into the s p 500
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even better however the majority of
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americans as you just saw on this slide
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don't invest in equities as much right
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it's just hard to conceptualize whereas
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a house is actually pretty easy to
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conceptualize
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and because the debt amortizes you're
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forced to save over time it's highly
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illiquid it's hard to take your money
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out of it it is what makes a great
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investment and so when you look at why
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this chart is so high it's not because
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homeowners are saving a tremendous
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amount more right it's they're saving
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they're putting money into the equity of
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the home they're being forced to in
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their payments
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so despite the benefits of home
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ownership it is starting to become
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fundamentally inaccessible
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so this is a chart really simple of of
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average home prices there's a bunch of
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different ways you
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different sources you can measure home
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prices but you can see that at the
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bottom of the recession which was
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actually 2012 for home prices the
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average home price in america was 163
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000
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um and that today it's closer to 338
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thousand dollars that's a 200 percent
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increase in ten years at the same time
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real median income has only increased
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from about fifty seven thousand dollars
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to sixty seven thousand dollars
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um so what has caused prices for homes
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to increase so dramatically if i do i'm
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pretty sure that none of this is new
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news you all have been seeing how much
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home prices have have risen for those of
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you who have bought uh while interest
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rates are three were still three percent
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good on you because that is probably the
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lowest they're going to be in a really
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really long time
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but here's the quick history which is um
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from 2000 to 2008 we were building on
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average one and a half billion homes
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that's our million homes a year not
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billion gosh
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one and a half million homes a year and
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that equated to roughly four to five
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months of inventory
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months of inventory mean that if if
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there were no more homes that were put
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on the market how long would it take to
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sell all those homes four to five months
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and that's generally considered a
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balanced real estate market
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then what happened the global financial
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crisis there was a mass number of
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foreclosures the market was completely
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flooded and all of a sudden you could
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buy an existing home that was going into
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foreclosure for 163 000
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and so builders who had to pay for labor
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for lumber right to actually build a
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house couldn't build a house for that
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cheap
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the the cheapest that a home builder can
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build the home is roughly 200 000
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all in cost right and so if you can sit
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there and you're like i can only build a
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house for two hundred thousand dollars
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which means i have to sell it for more
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than two hundred thousand dollars well i
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can't compete with existing foreclosure
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inventory so homebuilders stopped
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building they went from building 1.5
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uh million a year down to about 750
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000 homes a year after that and it
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stayed like that until about 2015
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and at that point a lot of the inventory
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that came from foreclosures were
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absorbed and they started actually
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rebuilding again but they didn't rebuild
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at the same rate that they had prior
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we're rebuilding right now we're
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building probably new inventories one
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point i'd say 1.2 million
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annually and so then this massive thing
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happened which is which is covid and all
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of a sudden everyone went from living in
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their studio apartment to saying i need
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a backyard i need extra room for child
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care and i need an office and there was
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this mass spike in demand after years of
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not building enough inventory and so
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what happens when demand starts to spike
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and there's not a lot of supply while
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home prices took off which you can kind
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of see right over here is that little
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spiky part at the very end
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and what's amazing is that it's actually
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just gotten incredibly harder not just
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because home prices are getting more
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expensive but because of the impact that
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that has in terms of how much you
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actually need to save to buy a home so
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the left-hand chart shows
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the yellow bar is your average down
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payment and you can see that that's
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grown roughly 2x at the same time median
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income in the last 20 years hasn't gone
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up so on an absolute dollar basis you
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now need to save 2x the amount that you
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would have had to save back in 2000 so
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one it's down payment is an issue
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the second issue is that post global
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financial crisis rightly so the
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government tightened underwriting
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requirements they said you know what
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turns out when you cause a global
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worldwide recession we should maybe
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change how we're doing things and so
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they pulled back and said we're going to
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make you have a higher fico in order to
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be able to purchase a home which is
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probably the right answer but also
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pretty painful because people don't wake
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up one day
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they're like i no longer need a home
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right and so if you take a look at this
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the average fico for home buyers is well
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above what the average fico is for the
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general population and anyone who's
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under 45 years is even lower because
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fico cures over time and so what does
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this all come together and say is that
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um unless you you know have the ability
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to save 2x the amount
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unless you are above average in terms of
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fico when you're starting off your life
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in a starter home you're going to
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struggle to actually be able to buy a
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home
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now this chart seems a little confusing
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but i think it's really important to
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look at and understand so i'll walk you
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through it so what this chart shows is
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is mortgage rates three percent six
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percent nine percent we were at three
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percent call it a year ago we're at i
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think five and a half percent right now
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is roughly where the 30-year fixed is
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and then nine percent who knows maybe
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hopefully not in the future and that
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says what is your mortgage tax and
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insurance payments what you have to
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include for a 400 000 home which is
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roughly average home price and i know a
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little different in miami but this is
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kind of across the u.s
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and then i said how much income do you
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need
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in order to get that mortgage and you
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can see that your income that you need
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goes from about 94 000 of household
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income up to about 160 000 of household
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income
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and then i said how many households
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could qualify for that because there's
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data on on how much income households
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make across the u.s they're 126 million
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households in the us and you can see
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that historically almost 40 percent uh
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sorry 30 percent of households actually
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could afford a mortgage where we were
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before and that number today has gone
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down to now 22
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and will go down to about less than 15
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percent of people who can actually get a
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mortgage on a home this is insane
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so over here i kind of i like to just
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overly simplify things so i kind of put
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it here which is a ten thousand dollar
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increase in home prices means one
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million fewer families can own a home
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or a one percent increase in mortgage
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rates mean five million families can
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actually own a home so we're in a little
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bit of a tough situation here
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um so when i started divi the goal was
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to help solve wealth inequality by
00:13:16
giving americans access to assets this
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is the sole goal the purpose what i
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really believe in
00:13:22
um which is that access to assets and
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compounding
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uh wealth in something that you cannot
00:13:29
easily pull your money out of and you
00:13:31
just leave it there is the way that we
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can help people generate wealth for
00:13:35
their families for their children for
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their next generation
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um so the way divi works is very similar
00:13:41
to a mortgage except it's not a mortgage
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uh you come to our website you apply we
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give you a budget so we might say hey
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you're approved for 500 000 home in
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miami go out shopping you shop with your
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realtor the same way you would with a
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mortgage and when you're ready to buy a
00:13:56
home you just let us know what home you
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choose we say great we put out an all
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quick close offer for you so you can
00:14:03
compete with every other investor offer
00:14:05
that's out there we'll take care of it
00:14:07
for you
00:14:08
because we know how to bid on these
00:14:09
homes
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we then take care of the inspections we
00:14:12
cover all closing costs all fees
00:14:14
everything we head to closing and you
00:14:16
commit either one to two percent down
00:14:18
which is about a tenth of a usual down
00:14:20
payment down payments are ten to twenty
00:14:21
percent we say one to two percent and
00:14:24
that's your initial equity in the home
00:14:25
you own that that is yours and then you
00:14:28
move in you make one monthly payment
00:14:30
part rent part equity the same way a
00:14:33
mortgage is principal and interest
00:14:36
and the equity piece builds up your
00:14:38
percent ownership we let you build up to
00:14:40
10 percent over the course of three
00:14:41
years at any point in time you can get a
00:14:44
mortgage or refinance and take us out or
00:14:46
you can cash out your equity and walk
00:14:48
away hopefully with tens of thousands of
00:14:50
dollars saved up
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so that is how we work
00:14:54
we operate in 16 metros our biggest ones
00:14:57
are georgia texas and florida florida's
00:14:59
a big one up in tampa
00:15:00
the average income of our customers is
00:15:02
about a 50 000 to 150 000 household
00:15:05
income uh 50 of our customers are people
00:15:08
of color and 80 of our transactions are
00:15:10
female female-led
00:15:17
and so i think the most important thing
00:15:19
is are we successful in our mission and
00:15:21
what we're trying to do um so 51 of divi
00:15:24
customers who have come to the end of
00:15:26
their three year lease have been able to
00:15:27
buy back their home probably another 20
00:15:29
on top of it aren't yet ready for
00:15:31
mortgage and so we just let them build
00:15:33
more equity over time and about 30
00:15:35
percent of people turn over which is
00:15:37
completely fine sometimes you have an
00:15:39
extra kid or two and you need a bigger
00:15:40
home and that's that's okay we actually
00:15:42
love that people can cash out their
00:15:44
money uh and continue moving on
00:15:47
um over here we have what i think is one
00:15:49
of the more powerful thing which is the
00:15:51
average renter savings versus the
00:15:52
average savings that a divi customer has
00:15:54
in their home we're almost 25 times the
00:15:56
savings that the average renter has and
00:15:59
this is because they are building up
00:16:01
equity in their property over time
00:16:04
um
00:16:05
over here just to show we're growing
00:16:07
quickly and we're doing it profitably
00:16:09
actually i think this is super important
00:16:10
is you can sit here and say that you're
00:16:12
building a mission oriented company you
00:16:14
have to show scale
00:16:15
you have to show growth and you have to
00:16:17
show the people there is adoption and
00:16:18
you're actually having an impact and so
00:16:20
this year alone will deploy over a
00:16:22
billion dollars of capital we measure a
00:16:24
margin as the rent that we collect less
00:16:26
home costs less interest so it's like a
00:16:27
true
00:16:28
profit all-in margin um where we're
00:16:31
almost probably going to be at about 25
00:16:33
all in profit margin
00:16:36
um and now i think we have yeah thank
00:16:38
you um
00:16:41
uh i think that there is a video but i
00:16:43
don't know if they're showing it so we
00:16:44
can we can maybe go to q a for running
00:16:46
close on time okay cool thank you
00:16:56
i know that friberg's
00:16:58
going to talk to you about consumer
00:16:59
credit but let me just tee up something
00:17:01
before um
00:17:02
there's a tweet i just want to read it
00:17:04
to you and maybe
00:17:06
we can use this as a jumping-off point
00:17:07
blackstone calls homes almost as
00:17:09
unaffordable
00:17:11
as a 2007 peak they just said that today
00:17:14
yeah um his name is joe ziddle who's a i
00:17:16
guess a senior partner there um but he
00:17:19
believes a crash is unlikely due to a
00:17:21
major difference which is that most
00:17:22
owners
00:17:24
aren't using their homes like an atm
00:17:26
like they did back then yeah um can you
00:17:29
explain
00:17:30
um sort of the broader state of housing
00:17:33
actually and sure uh why some people
00:17:35
feel like we're actually
00:17:37
okay right at the brink of a crisis
00:17:39
again and some people don't
00:17:41
okay yeah interesting so the global
00:17:44
financial crisis is very different than
00:17:45
this because it was obviously a
00:17:47
housing-led crisis where we had people
00:17:49
overextend and they didn't have enough
00:17:51
equity that was built up in their house
00:17:53
to cushion a decline in home prices i'd
00:17:55
say that this is a very different
00:17:57
situation today and i'd say that because
00:18:00
one we don't have a lot of supply
00:18:02
and so fundamentally when you're
00:18:04
thinking about pricing supply and demand
00:18:05
dynamics number one we don't have a lot
00:18:07
of supply now what you can probably
00:18:09
argue is there is an equilibrium point
00:18:11
meaning
00:18:13
interest rates are increasing which is
00:18:14
starting to stifle some demand don't get
00:18:16
me wrong we're actually seeing that a
00:18:17
bit in the market
00:18:19
and then there's new home built that are
00:18:21
coming online and at some point there's
00:18:22
going to be enough inventory coming
00:18:24
online
00:18:25
that there's going to be enough supply
00:18:27
and a decrease enough in demand that it
00:18:29
will impact home prices now i don't know
00:18:31
that that's going to be in the next six
00:18:32
months i actually think it's going to be
00:18:33
more like 12 to 18 months and i don't
00:18:35
think that it means that there's going
00:18:37
to be a mass fall off like it was in the
00:18:39
global financial crisis
00:18:40
but it will slow down the price
00:18:43
of which homes are growing out how much
00:18:44
of this is just the like
00:18:47
miscast housing policy that a lot of
00:18:50
states and cities have i'll give you an
00:18:51
example of where i live i just got an
00:18:53
you know an email from our mayor and
00:18:56
basically what it said is like in the
00:18:57
state of california now they've
00:18:59
basically said you need to have a
00:19:00
certain amount of housing density
00:19:02
they're trying to figure out how to do
00:19:03
it they're not going to build high-rises
00:19:05
because those aren't allowed then they
00:19:07
you know you allow these adus to get
00:19:08
built that qualify and it's all
00:19:10
gamesmanship because
00:19:12
as far as i can read it the nimbyism of
00:19:15
not wanting to have high density homes
00:19:18
and that seems to be a very just
00:19:19
american phenomenon
00:19:21
well i actually think that it's a little
00:19:23
bit that the markets just react slower
00:19:25
like this isn't the houses aren't equity
00:19:28
markets they don't just you can't just
00:19:29
buy and sell rapidly it's like oh i want
00:19:31
to build an entire community of homes
00:19:33
five years i'm going to have to now plan
00:19:35
in order to get the government licensing
00:19:37
the regulation the permits to actually
00:19:39
build
00:19:40
and so you see a problem you're like oh
00:19:43
home prices are increasing and then it's
00:19:44
like
00:19:45
five years later you can actually do
00:19:47
something to actually impact it and by
00:19:49
then the entire market has like
00:19:51
completely changed and we've rush
00:19:53
invaded ukraine and covid took over and
00:19:55
there's a global pandemic and so
00:19:57
i think the bigger issue is that the
00:19:59
housing market
00:20:00
can't react as quick to keep up with
00:20:03
public equity markets
00:20:05
and a lot of that is because the
00:20:06
government highly regulates the building
00:20:09
of homes which takes a tremendous amount
00:20:10
of time and especially right now where
00:20:12
builders are like
00:20:14
i think that most builders miss their q1
00:20:16
numbers how many houses they were
00:20:18
actually going to build by almost 60
00:20:20
which was mostly supply chain so even
00:20:22
when they rush it
00:20:24
a lot of other factors are impacting it
00:20:26
and then what do you think about the
00:20:28
because i've talked about this a little
00:20:29
bit on the pot because it's something
00:20:30
that's really i think poorly understood
00:20:33
but important in my opinion where fannie
00:20:35
mae and freddie change the upper bounds
00:20:37
of mortgage of mortgages where you know
00:20:39
you can you they can be conforming now
00:20:41
at like a million dollars whereas before
00:20:43
they used to be considered jumbos and
00:20:44
yeah anyways the reason i'm asking this
00:20:46
question is i feel like there's a lot of
00:20:48
financialization in engineering here in
00:20:50
the housing market
00:20:53
that
00:20:54
is poorly understood
00:20:55
that in some ways tricks consumers to
00:20:58
getting in a little bit over their ski
00:20:59
tips and then in a moment like this
00:21:01
where rates rise their jobs a little bit
00:21:03
more insecure this is when all of the
00:21:05
parade of terribles happened yeah so we
00:21:07
just added a wonderful woman uh her name
00:21:09
is kimberly johnson's as actually her
00:21:10
first independent she was the ceo of
00:21:12
fannie mae and i brought her on to like
00:21:13
fully understand as much of this as
00:21:15
possible
00:21:16
um so the last time the government
00:21:19
changed the underwriting criteria it led
00:21:22
to the global financial crisis so if you
00:21:24
ask them if they're like really excited
00:21:25
to do it another time they're like no no
00:21:27
we we learned our lesson once um so i'd
00:21:30
say that they're actually because
00:21:32
they've been under conservatorship so
00:21:33
most of fannie mae's operations have
00:21:35
been very dictated by the government um
00:21:38
they're not actually taking probably the
00:21:40
level of risk that they should in this
00:21:41
current market and what i mean by that
00:21:43
is if home prices go up by 30 percent
00:21:47
the what actually qualifies as a
00:21:49
conventional mortgage needs to go up by
00:21:51
30 percent
00:21:53
um but that is such a massive change for
00:21:56
government to make because they're so
00:21:58
shell-shocked i think
00:21:59
from having made a change before and it
00:22:01
having such a negative ripple effect so
00:22:03
when i you know spoke to kimberly her
00:22:05
her response was no no we're not here to
00:22:08
start making these changes to make it
00:22:09
easier for consumers to get a home
00:22:11
that's your job
00:22:12
you disrupt us you do that i'm not here
00:22:15
to take risk
00:22:16
but you but they felt the government
00:22:18
just felt like they still like i
00:22:21
they felt like that was just a natural
00:22:23
change that had to happen
00:22:25
raising the the upper bound yeah i mean
00:22:27
of course everyone is what's actually
00:22:29
even crazier is i'm waiting for them to
00:22:31
actually raise the debt to income ratio
00:22:33
because of what i showed you earlier
00:22:35
which is if your income is not
00:22:36
increasing
00:22:38
and mortgage rates are going up and home
00:22:40
values are going up you now need to
00:22:41
spend a larger percentage of your income
00:22:44
on housing that's it's
00:22:46
that's a lending change right but isn't
00:22:48
that up to the individual banks they
00:22:49
could change they put overlays on top of
00:22:51
fannie mae's requirements but fannie mae
00:22:53
because they actually put so when the
00:22:55
global financial crisis happened there
00:22:56
were such uh very high fees and
00:22:58
penalties that went for banks that
00:23:00
didn't have really strict overlays that
00:23:02
actually had a ton of defaults and so
00:23:03
now banks are super nervous
00:23:05
to lend to people and actually take risk
00:23:08
that they actually follow fannie mae's
00:23:10
guidelines very strictly and actually
00:23:12
put overlays on top of it so they
00:23:13
actually are more conservative a lot of
00:23:15
times than what the underwriting
00:23:16
requirements are
00:23:18
and so in order for them to actually
00:23:20
start to take risk i think fannie mae
00:23:21
would have to encourage and they'd have
00:23:23
to do it in such a way that they don't
00:23:24
penalize yesterday we had uh bill gurley
00:23:27
and brad gershner on if you saw that
00:23:28
panel didn't hear about it now okay yeah
00:23:32
so you did see it or not okay okay um
00:23:36
we looked at all of assets being
00:23:38
inflated yeah uh from
00:23:41
used cars to nfts and everything in
00:23:44
between
00:23:45
uh and we've now seen compression and we
00:23:47
talked about this on the pod in every
00:23:49
single sector yeah
00:23:51
except
00:23:52
housing yep and so we're all sitting
00:23:54
here wondering what are the chances
00:23:57
that housing collapses i was talking to
00:24:00
um my pal uh palmer backstage remember
00:24:03
new bestie
00:24:06
interestingly we went backstage and no
00:24:08
no no don't ruin it every week no we
00:24:10
just sat there we had a great
00:24:11
conversation about ten different things
00:24:12
it was pretty interesting um
00:24:14
so
00:24:15
what are the chances
00:24:17
and we were talking about the chances of
00:24:18
a collapse he said oh maybe it's 30
00:24:20
chance this real estate collapse we're
00:24:21
watching your talk 30 chance maybe the
00:24:23
the real estate market collapse
00:24:25
what are the chances in your mind being
00:24:27
so close to it that we will see housing
00:24:30
collapse and this be a bubble look
00:24:32
there's there's no question that housing
00:24:35
growth is going to slow down
00:24:37
if you look down but i'm asking you guys
00:24:40
price prices pricing new homes prices
00:24:42
pricing the growth will slow now whether
00:24:44
it goes negative or not i think is more
00:24:46
a matter of what the economy does over
00:24:49
the next 24 months
00:24:51
um but i actually think that what we
00:24:52
will definitively see which we have seen
00:24:54
i'd say in the last two weeks we've seen
00:24:56
a slow down um in the in the rate of
00:24:59
growth for homes um now the global
00:25:02
financial crisis was very different than
00:25:04
than what we're seeing today and if you
00:25:06
anybody
00:25:07
bottom of the the stock market for the
00:25:09
global financial crisis
00:25:11
3909 bottom of housing prices june of
00:25:14
2012. three years later
00:25:17
why because the housing market moves so
00:25:19
slowly compared to the equities market
00:25:22
and so it is not surprising that housing
00:25:24
is going to be the last thing that's
00:25:25
going to actually start to to compress
00:25:28
in terms of people people live there for
00:25:29
a while they can afford their mortgages
00:25:31
then their income drops and they can't
00:25:32
afford their mortgages then they get
00:25:33
foreclosed then it's six months later
00:25:36
the stock market drop and you're like i
00:25:37
should sell my home that's going to take
00:25:38
30 days then i have to find someone oh
00:25:40
that's going to take another 30 days oh
00:25:42
then i have to wait till they move in
00:25:43
that's another 30 days and so it's three
00:25:44
months before you can like
00:25:46
make a trade i think you can't log on to
00:25:48
your robin hood account and be like yeah
00:25:50
i know the market's thinking let's get
00:25:51
rid of our house can i can i
00:25:53
shift the conversation for a second um
00:25:55
you're a founder of a unicorn yeah
00:25:58
raised the big round yeah
00:26:00
uh congratulations thank you
00:26:02
uh
00:26:04
time to write
00:26:05
so well this is what i was just gonna
00:26:07
ask you can you talk to us about your
00:26:09
mindset in this moment now
00:26:12
in terms of your valuation in terms of
00:26:14
your cash in terms of your burn in terms
00:26:15
of your employees
00:26:17
what's what's sort of front of mind what
00:26:19
are you doing same different
00:26:21
yeah um i'd say so we raised um a 200
00:26:26
million round from tiger uh it was
00:26:28
preempted um
00:26:29
back about six months ago or maybe even
00:26:32
nine months ago at this point
00:26:34
um
00:26:35
and i think that it's actually
00:26:36
interesting because i listen to you guys
00:26:37
on the pod um the besties and i think
00:26:40
that
00:26:41
you know for me as a founder when i was
00:26:43
going through that moment i was like
00:26:44
well
00:26:45
[ __ ] man it's a black friday sale like
00:26:47
i can raise a ton of cash i'm getting
00:26:49
preempted left and right and so i
00:26:51
actually think
00:26:52
that founders
00:26:54
like obviously i should have played the
00:26:56
game that i played which is like why
00:26:58
wouldn't i raise a ton of capital and
00:27:00
take less dilution there was nothing
00:27:02
that was the right chess move at that
00:27:04
point in time and now kind of to your
00:27:06
point
00:27:08
and by the way it's not founders fault
00:27:09
that the market got overheated
00:27:11
you guys gave us the terms you did the
00:27:13
rational thing
00:27:14
[Music]
00:27:16
by the way don't point it yet you did
00:27:18
the right no no you did the rational
00:27:19
thing rational yeah completely and so
00:27:22
but now but now now you have to just now
00:27:24
i'd say look divvy we make i don't know
00:27:27
we haven't probably put out there but
00:27:28
hundreds of millions of dollars in
00:27:29
revenue i burn
00:27:31
less than
00:27:32
i don't know five
00:27:35
to ten million a month to less than five
00:27:37
million a month um we have 300 employees
00:27:40
and do i think you have to be
00:27:41
conservative yes do i think you had to
00:27:43
be conservative along the entire way of
00:27:45
building a company yes every second i
00:27:48
thought my company can die at any moment
00:27:51
right a hundred percent
00:27:52
and i run my company like that my cup
00:27:54
they
00:27:55
my employees joke they're like you're
00:27:56
the most frugal person ever like every
00:27:58
single time it's awesome we need to
00:27:59
spend it i'm like
00:28:04
thank you yeah that's awesome do you um
00:28:06
do you rely on your late stage investors
00:28:08
in moments like this to like help you
00:28:10
navigate or how do you do it do you rely
00:28:11
on your early stage
00:28:13
first of all i don't think you rely on
00:28:14
investors ever yeah
00:28:16
no i don't mean that offensively i think
00:28:18
that some investors are great but no
00:28:19
one's building this company with you
00:28:21
i am building this company
00:28:23
with my employees
00:28:25
but ain't nobody else there with me and
00:28:27
so when times get tough um it is on you
00:28:30
to make sure you can have a path to
00:28:32
casual profitability if you can actually
00:28:34
raise another round of capital um but
00:28:36
you try to support your employees and
00:28:38
work together to kind of weather through
00:28:39
this but i don't expect any of my
00:28:42
investors to show up with a hail mary
00:28:44
and
00:28:45
um i think that it's on me to run a
00:28:46
really
00:28:47
strong profitable business and so any
00:28:50
changes from
00:28:51
june to now or not really just kind of
00:28:53
stay the course
00:28:54
get to the cashflow break even um like
00:28:57
meaning nothing to accelerate it or
00:28:59
so i think we plan out a bunch of
00:29:01
different cases so we always have the
00:29:03
base case target case and then what i
00:29:05
call the off ramp which is cash flow
00:29:08
positive
00:29:09
and every week my cfo ceo and i get on a
00:29:12
call and we just say how's the market
00:29:14
doing how do we feel do we want to
00:29:16
switch from our base to our target case
00:29:18
do we want to go down the off-ramp path
00:29:20
nope this week feels the same the all-in
00:29:22
podcast didn't change our sentiment and
00:29:24
we continue on on monday morning as
00:29:27
planned we're all in sentiment index i
00:29:29
like it
00:29:31
it's it's great to um to have you here
00:29:33
and i had had you on my podcast earlier
00:29:35
and i had told you like god i thought
00:29:37
this was gonna be the most boring
00:29:38
podcast and it was one of the best of
00:29:39
the year
00:29:40
uh you are uh
00:29:42
thank you i don't know if that's a
00:29:44
complimentary tell us how you really
00:29:46
feel yeah you know it was like a boring
00:29:47
topic and and uh you you actually do it
00:29:49
again please tell us
00:29:52
like a really boring topic but a great
00:29:54
guest and you made it really really um
00:29:57
both really educational i think the
00:29:59
audience they're still fully until right
00:30:01
now
00:30:03
wow
00:30:04
wait uh
00:30:07
day one i do have as we're heading
00:30:09
towards ending i do have an intro oh
00:30:13
because i thought we were all getting i
00:30:15
tried this it didn't work
00:30:16
well i thought we were all gonna get
00:30:18
interest anyone
00:30:22
[Applause]
00:30:27
which i feel like i should give which is
00:30:29
um are y'all ready for it
00:30:33
i'm in miami chilling with the besties
00:30:35
on this stage in a minefield of testes
00:30:41
j cal kindly invited me to share my
00:30:43
passion so here goes in true all in
00:30:46
fashion i play the housing long game as
00:30:49
the stock market will jitter but solving
00:30:51
inequality is less flashy than almost
00:30:54
buying twitter
00:30:55
i'm the rent to own leader in the prop
00:30:57
tech arena i'd like to reintroduce
00:30:59
myself my name is adina
00:31:01
[Applause]
00:31:08
[Applause]
00:31:13
[Music]
00:31:23
and they've just gone crazy with them
00:31:29
[Music]
00:31:44
we should all just get a room and just
00:31:46
have one big huge orgy because they're
00:31:47
all just useless it's like this like
00:31:49
sexual tension but they just need to
00:31:50
release
00:31:51
[Music]
00:31:55
your feet
00:31:56
[Music]
00:31:57
we need to get
00:32:01
[Music]

Episode Highlights

  • Housing Market Dynamics
    The housing market struggles to keep pace with public equity markets due to heavy regulation.
    “The housing market can't react as quick to keep up with public equity markets.”
    @ 20m 00s
    May 29, 2022
  • Financialization in Housing
    The complexities of financialization in the housing market can mislead consumers.
    “There's a lot of financialization in engineering here in the housing market.”
    @ 20m 50s
    May 29, 2022
  • Real Estate Collapse Discussion
    A conversation about the potential for a real estate market collapse, with varying opinions.
    “Maybe it's a 30% chance the real estate market collapses.”
    @ 24m 21s
    May 29, 2022

Episode Quotes

Key Moments

  • Housing Density Issues19:00
  • NIMBYism Phenomenon19:12
  • Market Reaction Delay19:59
  • Underwriting Criteria Changes21:22
  • Investor Reliance28:14
  • Boring Topic, Great Guest29:49
  • Housing Long Game30:49
  • Useless Tension31:46

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

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