00:00:00
you're seeing now the the fresh summer
00:00:02
collection of lower piano this jason oh
00:00:04
really is the thin summer jale okay
00:00:07
really beautiful cashmere container uh
00:00:10
it's called like the king's cashmere or
00:00:12
something and then this
00:00:13
is called a
00:00:15
lovely yellow boating sweater anyways i
00:00:17
took saks to my tailor and i took him to
00:00:20
uh laura piana and then at some point i
00:00:22
just [ __ ] lost him and then i haven't
00:00:23
seen him since so
00:00:25
you took him to your tailor and to
00:00:27
lawrence
00:00:29
wow great that
00:00:31
the show remains accessible
00:00:33
to the every man and woman they're sucks
00:00:57
good to see everybody's focused on what
00:00:58
matters okay everybody welcome to all in
00:01:01
episode 86 end of the world except for
00:01:03
these two douchebags we thought it'd be
00:01:05
really funny to vote to find the exact
00:01:07
same outfit at laura piana
00:01:10
i feel fully styled what a great look
00:01:14
you guys look so good it's like dumb and
00:01:16
dumber in italy
00:01:20
we'll let your winners ride
00:01:23
rain man david
00:01:36
hey everybody welcome to episode 86 of
00:01:38
the all-in podcasts we're not dead yet
00:01:40
uh still publishing with us from italy
00:01:44
uh the rain man
00:01:45
and the dictator in matching outfits
00:01:48
gentlemen how is italy it's fantastic
00:01:52
and also with us the sultan of science
00:01:54
himself david friedberg from an
00:01:57
undisclosed conference
00:01:59
uh somewhere which we can't talk about
00:02:02
how you doing i'm off the record this
00:02:03
week off the record this week and a
00:02:05
little hungover it seems yeah
00:02:07
you need a cup of coffee are you
00:02:08
drinking a little scotch last night late
00:02:10
night a little scotch
00:02:11
i went scotch and beer and it was a
00:02:14
it was a late night all right everybody
00:02:15
we got a lot of news to get through
00:02:16
let's just parse through some of the
00:02:18
data because data's been coming in and
00:02:19
the minutes from the june fed are out
00:02:22
the key quote significant risk that
00:02:24
elevated inflation could become
00:02:26
entrenched if the public began to
00:02:28
question the resolve of the fed so they
00:02:30
went from transient to now fearing
00:02:32
entrenched
00:02:34
jobs have slipped a little bit this is
00:02:36
something we've been talking about but
00:02:38
just to give some context here we're
00:02:39
still a historic uh
00:02:42
number of job openings we peaked in
00:02:44
march 11.9 million uh in may we uh we
00:02:47
dropped down to 11.3
00:02:50
and uh
00:02:51
11 million for six straight months it's
00:02:53
just extraordinary if you look at this
00:02:54
fred chart
00:02:56
it's just astounding to think that this
00:02:58
many jobs are available two for one in
00:03:00
the united states there are two jobs
00:03:02
available for every one person who needs
00:03:04
a job
00:03:05
and
00:03:07
this they're just
00:03:09
absolutely stunning if you look at the
00:03:10
um what do you think this is a precursor
00:03:13
to
00:03:14
uh dropping down dramatically
00:03:16
in the white collar sector is what the
00:03:18
data is showing
00:03:20
what's your wage or major wage inflation
00:03:23
i mean
00:03:24
yeah
00:03:24
that work that work clearly has to be
00:03:26
done and if you lay people off
00:03:29
the number of unemployment not
00:03:31
unemployed will go up but at the end of
00:03:33
the day the thing that we know here is
00:03:35
we have a structural
00:03:37
unemployment problem as you said two
00:03:39
openings for every person which means
00:03:40
those openings aren't paying enough for
00:03:42
people to leave the sidelines and get on
00:03:44
the field yeah or
00:03:46
they've been incentivized to
00:03:48
to be on the sidelines exactly so
00:03:51
obviously yeah these these job openings
00:03:53
might actually be
00:03:55
indicative of the opposite of what the
00:03:57
fed is telling us right the fed wants us
00:03:59
to believe that they can just keep
00:04:00
jacking up rates and then we're not
00:04:01
going to go into recession because we
00:04:03
have all these open job wrecks but what
00:04:06
if we should see the labor market as
00:04:07
really two separate markets they're sort
00:04:09
of white-collar
00:04:10
professionals
00:04:11
and you're seeing all of these tech
00:04:14
companies that we're involved in slam on
00:04:16
the brakes really quickly right now so
00:04:18
we're going to see greater unemployment
00:04:20
there
00:04:21
and then on the blue collar side
00:04:23
you have this issue of record low
00:04:27
labor participation yeah and so you
00:04:29
still have inflation there because they
00:04:31
can't fill all the jobs because there's
00:04:33
all these like warped incentives around
00:04:35
that there are to just put a number on
00:04:37
it saks we're ten percent off the peak
00:04:39
in terms of participation and if those
00:04:41
folks would participate
00:04:43
it would really fill a lot of these jobs
00:04:45
that would increase the production of
00:04:46
goods and services that might take some
00:04:48
of the pressure off inflation and it
00:04:49
would also increase monetary velocity
00:04:51
rights people would spend the money they
00:04:53
make which then get us out of this mess
00:04:55
possibly i think part of the problem
00:04:56
with the fed's approach here is that
00:04:58
it's assuming that if they just keep
00:04:59
jacking up rates that will that will
00:05:01
reduce demand and that will stop or slow
00:05:03
down inflation and there's some truth to
00:05:05
that however i don't think this
00:05:06
inflation is purely a problem of excess
00:05:09
demand i think there's also a supply
00:05:11
problem meaning that not enough goods
00:05:13
and services are being produced and the
00:05:15
commodities the inputs that we need to
00:05:18
the production of goods and services
00:05:19
those prices are
00:05:21
increased they've been inflated and that
00:05:24
started well before the ukraine war but
00:05:25
i think the ukraine war has now
00:05:27
exacerbated this problem with respect to
00:05:29
energy and food if you had seven minutes
00:05:31
for your over under uh for saks to
00:05:33
mention ukraine you took the under you
00:05:35
won i'm just mentioning it as a
00:05:37
exacerbator of the situation i think
00:05:40
that's actually really good framing um
00:05:41
that it's an exacerbator um
00:05:45
yeah so if you look at
00:05:47
the quits let me just give you the quits
00:05:49
number because this is really
00:05:50
interesting these are people who are
00:05:51
quitting jobs it's still at a record
00:05:53
high so this concept of the great
00:05:55
resignation we're still having over 4
00:05:57
million people quit their jobs every
00:05:59
month
00:06:00
free pandemic quits averaged under 3
00:06:02
million a month and if you look at that
00:06:04
chart it's just staggering to think that
00:06:07
in an economy that's going down people
00:06:09
are still quitting now what is that
00:06:11
indicative of it's indicative of people
00:06:13
believing that they can get another job
00:06:15
you don't quit your job if you don't
00:06:16
think you can get another one or you
00:06:18
have some savings available you want a
00:06:20
yolo uh maybe you know
00:06:22
um
00:06:23
you know spend a little free time going
00:06:25
on vacation or there's a new economy
00:06:27
emerging right i mean one of the the
00:06:29
cases to be made
00:06:31
is that the pandemic and the stimulus
00:06:34
that followed created a staggering short
00:06:37
shift in the types of jobs and the types
00:06:40
of businesses that people
00:06:42
you know used to make money and you know
00:06:44
a lot of people were able to shift to
00:06:46
work from home and when you shift to
00:06:48
work from home you have more flexibility
00:06:49
and freedom to choose other jobs that
00:06:51
you can now do from home and people
00:06:53
don't want to work in restaurants they
00:06:54
don't want to work in fast food and if
00:06:56
they can find another job a gig like or
00:06:59
services like or on demand type job
00:07:01
where they can have more freedom and
00:07:02
flexibility and more earnings in their
00:07:04
life they'll make that choice and this
00:07:06
happens so quickly because of the
00:07:08
shutdown the lockdowns and then the
00:07:10
stimulus the trillion dollars or two
00:07:11
trillion dollars that poured in
00:07:13
it created all these new opportunities
00:07:15
and all these new incentives for new
00:07:17
types of work and the fact is the old
00:07:19
economy the old businesses all the fast
00:07:21
food restaurants and the coffee shops
00:07:23
they're sitting with half employment and
00:07:25
they can't fill the jobs because that's
00:07:27
you know that used to be a job that
00:07:29
there was demand for and now it's not
00:07:31
the case you know and i think that
00:07:34
that's what by the way i don't i don't
00:07:35
know if that necessarily reverts in the
00:07:37
near term because i do think that
00:07:38
there's been a substantial almost
00:07:40
permanent change in some of these
00:07:41
sectors of the economy not necessarily
00:07:43
all some will revert but it leaves big
00:07:46
gaps in parts of the economy and maybe
00:07:47
fast food restaurants are not going to
00:07:49
be as cheap as they used to be because
00:07:50
in order to get people to work there you
00:07:51
got to charge more and there's other
00:07:53
parts of the economy like services and
00:07:54
you selling stuff on etsy and whatnot
00:07:56
that are working for people let me just
00:07:58
put a number on that and then hand it
00:07:59
off to you sax so just put a number on
00:08:00
that the jobs that fell the most white
00:08:02
collar off 325 000 and manufacturing 200
00:08:06
8 000 the jobs that are increasing the
00:08:07
most hospitality and retail so exactly
00:08:11
to your point people feel more options
00:08:12
this whole thing was accelerated during
00:08:14
the pandemic sex
00:08:16
well the question i want to ask freeberg
00:08:18
is do you actually think that these new
00:08:20
options of work from home and remote
00:08:22
work have actually made the economy more
00:08:25
productive
00:08:26
it seems to me that obviously employees
00:08:29
if you give them
00:08:30
the no freedom over the decision of
00:08:33
their trade-off between work and leisure
00:08:35
and so let's see what's made the economy
00:08:37
more expensive
00:08:40
how so
00:08:41
if you take a big step back to the day
00:08:43
before
00:08:44
the lockdowns started
00:08:46
we had a normal functioning economy that
00:08:48
was growing by call it two percent a
00:08:51
year
00:08:52
and the minute that we enforce these
00:08:55
lockdowns
00:08:56
i actually think what we did was we
00:08:58
started a supply side recession it's
00:09:01
what sac said earlier so what does that
00:09:03
mean
00:09:03
let's just say you're a factory and you
00:09:06
make
00:09:07
wheels okay just make something really
00:09:08
simple
00:09:09
you were growing at two percent a year
00:09:11
everything seemed hunky-dory you had
00:09:13
employees it was fine you used to sell
00:09:15
your products make 10 15 percent profits
00:09:17
everything was fine
00:09:18
and then the day after the government
00:09:20
said you need to shut your factory down
00:09:22
because we can't have people
00:09:24
spending too much time close together
00:09:26
because we need to get a handle on this
00:09:27
pandemic okay so you shut it down and
00:09:30
then for the next 12 or 18 months
00:09:32
what happens that stuff sits idle
00:09:35
these people that used to work for you
00:09:38
get two and a half trillion dollars put
00:09:39
into their bank accounts
00:09:41
they spend their time doing other things
00:09:44
and then all of a sudden people say okay
00:09:46
it's time to start the factory up again
00:09:48
people want to buy wheels and now all of
00:09:50
a sudden you find that because
00:09:52
everything all around the world was shut
00:09:53
down
00:09:54
there's no rubber to make the wheels
00:09:57
there's no steel to make the axle
00:09:59
there's no people to put them all
00:10:00
together and so what happens
00:10:03
well prices go up because again you gave
00:10:06
everybody else two and a half trillion
00:10:08
dollars so they're like well i used to
00:10:09
pay a dollar for your wheel i'm willing
00:10:11
to pay you two dollars now just make the
00:10:12
wheel give it to me before you give it
00:10:13
to somebody else
00:10:15
so that is like the classic definition
00:10:17
of a supply-side recession there's
00:10:19
another piece of that too and sorry just
00:10:21
to finish the point
00:10:23
and the fed basically confirmed this in
00:10:25
the minutes that they just released
00:10:26
today jason can you just read the quote
00:10:28
that you had in the in the notes well
00:10:30
the one up top significant risk that
00:10:32
elevated inflation should become
00:10:33
entrenched if the public begins to
00:10:35
question the resolve their result i
00:10:36
think the point is that you know we were
00:10:38
kind of in a supply side recession and
00:10:39
now by raising rates
00:10:42
to some crazy amount the end of which
00:10:44
we're still not sure about
00:10:47
may actually then trigger the demand
00:10:48
destruction to have a demand side
00:10:50
recession and so i don't i don't know
00:10:52
that we have lived in a modern point in
00:10:55
time where both things have been true
00:10:57
right there's been a principle of
00:10:58
macroeconomics that you're everybody's
00:11:00
always kind of debating is this a supply
00:11:02
side issue is it a demand side issue we
00:11:04
know that in kovit it was a supply side
00:11:06
issue we took all the supply out of the
00:11:08
market
00:11:09
and now we're trying to figure out when
00:11:11
we exhaust
00:11:12
you know all of the money we've given
00:11:14
people
00:11:15
and we destroy demand and take the
00:11:16
incentives for demand to go away right
00:11:18
consumer confidence is now starting to
00:11:20
turn
00:11:21
what happens then well we're going to
00:11:23
figure that out in the next six or nine
00:11:24
months but the thing is you have both
00:11:26
that are true it's not as if the supply
00:11:28
side of the economy
00:11:29
has been fixed it's not as if everybody
00:11:32
is running at 100 capacity it's not as
00:11:34
if all the supply chain issues have been
00:11:36
worked out yep so i don't know i just
00:11:38
think it's a very complicated situation
00:11:40
yeah it's a perfect pivot and just to
00:11:42
build on that um chamoth the downstream
00:11:45
effects we always talk about the second
00:11:46
order uh impact because people are not
00:11:49
going to work anymore
00:11:50
downtown areas are dying so office space
00:11:54
commercial real estate saks you're in
00:11:56
that so you can comment on what's
00:11:57
happening
00:11:59
and then restaurants and commuting and
00:12:02
all the stuff that was happening
00:12:03
downtown san francisco's downtown mayor
00:12:05
london breed had a press conference and
00:12:07
she's been tweeting hey we have to
00:12:08
revitalize
00:12:09
you know soma in san francisco that's
00:12:11
never going to happen that's off the
00:12:13
table it's like bite and tweeting we got
00:12:14
to drop gas prices yeah i mean we have
00:12:17
complete
00:12:18
markets we'll get to politics
00:12:19
uh sacks don't worry we've got plenty of
00:12:21
politics
00:12:26
real estate i i read an amazing
00:12:28
statistic today from uh like one of the
00:12:30
major brokers
00:12:31
uh they they said that by the end of the
00:12:34
year they're expecting 30 million square
00:12:36
feet of office vacancy 30 million in san
00:12:39
francisco by the end of the year san
00:12:41
francisco is tiny by the way because of
00:12:43
sub leases and uh and then
00:12:46
tenants rolling off so the first thing i
00:12:48
did is i tried to google what's the
00:12:50
total square footage in san francisco
00:12:52
and i think it's about 75 million of
00:12:54
office space oh my gosh you're talking
00:12:55
about 40
00:12:57
vacancy by the end of the year i've
00:12:58
never heard of such a thing 40
00:13:01
let's be clear san francisco is fairly
00:13:03
unique and a bit of an outlier in the
00:13:04
circumstance because so much of it was
00:13:06
you know tech heavy and so much of it
00:13:08
went remote yeah and the city called
00:13:09
everyone and it all got crime but like
00:13:12
generally that's not the case i mean you
00:13:13
know new york is apparently still pretty
00:13:15
stable right and miami's obviously doing
00:13:17
well la often but here's the piece of it
00:13:19
that people aren't really thinking about
00:13:20
which is
00:13:21
the only reason it's stable
00:13:24
is because tenants sign up for long-term
00:13:26
leases and this is why it turns out that
00:13:28
we work with a pretty bad business model
00:13:29
is because if you're if all your leases
00:13:31
are month to month and you hit a
00:13:33
recession your revenue gets whammied
00:13:35
this is why landlords like long-term
00:13:38
leases with credit worthy tenants they
00:13:40
sign seven years ten years and so
00:13:42
letters of credit right right putting
00:13:43
together what that means though is that
00:13:45
as
00:13:46
these um tenants
00:13:48
start to roll their leases roll over the
00:13:50
next few years they don't need as much
00:13:52
space because they've either gone remote
00:13:54
or they're like hybrid now and so
00:13:56
they're thinking of their office less as
00:13:58
a headquarters which everyone needs to
00:13:59
go to and more as like a co-working
00:14:01
space their employees occasionally go to
00:14:04
so they're all reducing their footprints
00:14:06
this is why san francisco keeps
00:14:08
increasing its vacancy is that as more
00:14:10
and more of these leases roll
00:14:12
there's just no need they don't need as
00:14:14
much space so they're also downsizing
00:14:17
now here's the problem here's the
00:14:19
problem is that these buildings have
00:14:20
debt on them right and that debt has
00:14:23
what's called a debt service
00:14:26
coverage ratio
00:14:27
dscr and basically you become you as a
00:14:31
building owner become in default on your
00:14:34
debt covenants if your revenue from the
00:14:36
building drops below a certain number
00:14:38
and here's the problem all these new
00:14:40
leases that get signed to the extent
00:14:42
there are any they're going to be at a
00:14:44
fraction of what the old leases were
00:14:46
because this this vacancy is going to
00:14:48
create a massively low market clearing
00:14:50
price am i right to understand that
00:14:52
they're not allowed to sign those leases
00:14:54
because they're under it so
00:14:56
that's better than nothing or do they
00:14:58
are not allowed to take it it's not that
00:15:00
it's just that the market clearing price
00:15:01
is going to be so much lower than their
00:15:03
old leases that when they then look at
00:15:05
the revenue from the building
00:15:07
and by the way that buildings can have a
00:15:08
lot of vacancy on it now they're just
00:15:10
not going to hit their their their debt
00:15:12
service coverage ratio so they'll be in
00:15:14
default what that means is i don't
00:15:16
understand how in a place like downtown
00:15:18
san francisco half the buildings don't
00:15:19
end up getting owned by the banks well
00:15:21
the banks don't want to own all these
00:15:22
buildings so they're going to be a fire
00:15:24
sale
00:15:38
going to happen
00:15:40
then you need developers to come in and
00:15:42
have the capital to to basically make
00:15:44
all those changes again it takes a long
00:15:46
time but but think about the systemic
00:15:47
risk from that right if you know
00:15:50
that a huge chunk of the real estate
00:15:52
in is the commercial real estate in
00:15:55
downtown san francisco which used to be
00:15:56
blue chip i mean the most blue chip
00:15:59
right yes who are those financial
00:16:00
institutions who own those assets
00:16:02
because they are now toxic assets and
00:16:04
they will be revealed to be toxic assets
00:16:06
as soon as the leases roll well and then
00:16:08
there are debt funds and banks
00:16:11
as well right and so
00:16:13
what are the cascading effects when
00:16:15
those shoes start to drop
00:16:17
yeah okay and so just to put a finer
00:16:19
point also on the the jobs and that was
00:16:21
our flop um
00:16:22
net international migration um has just
00:16:25
plummeted we're
00:16:27
well under a million folks
00:16:29
uh coming into the country so the
00:16:30
obvious solution to our employment
00:16:32
issues is to recruit people from other
00:16:34
countries but let's go to the turn card
00:16:36
uh yeah and there it is um we have just
00:16:38
stopped letting people trump just
00:16:40
absolutely close the borders as you can
00:16:41
see 2016. biden also is in favor of
00:16:44
closing the borders it's also sentiment
00:16:46
it's like
00:16:47
you know america is not the shining
00:16:50
yeah people still light on the hill it
00:16:52
used to be not in the same way
00:16:54
and there are we could easily have three
00:16:55
or four million people coming into the
00:16:56
country if we wanted to yeah but we have
00:16:58
three million people have come in just
00:17:00
under biden and illegal migration does
00:17:02
that chart count illegal migration no
00:17:04
this is legal this is legal okay well so
00:17:06
just make sure you count that because
00:17:08
we've basically had uh open border
00:17:09
policy yeah
00:17:11
if we didn't allow those workers then
00:17:12
what would happen um okay let's go to
00:17:14
the turn card consumer confidence
00:17:15
conference boards consumer confidence
00:17:17
index in june fell to 98.7 from 103.2 in
00:17:21
may
00:17:22
uh expectation was 100 so it's under the
00:17:24
expectation
00:17:25
the expectation index so when you look
00:17:27
at
00:17:30
consumer confidence there's two your
00:17:32
confidence in the present situation
00:17:33
that's the blue on the chart and then
00:17:35
there's uh your expectations of the
00:17:36
future and what you see is a huge
00:17:38
divergence there uh starting to happen
00:17:40
people are starting to look towards the
00:17:42
future as negative but they feel pretty
00:17:43
good
00:17:44
about today um and so
00:17:47
gentlemen what do you think of this
00:17:49
chart it seems to me like this is sort
00:17:51
of akin to what saks was relaying about
00:17:53
that founder at the co2 conference which
00:17:55
is like you know he thinks everybody
00:17:57
else is gonna you know uh roll up their
00:17:59
sleeves and and buckle down but he has
00:18:01
no intention of doing it i think people
00:18:04
um are roughly the same way and i think
00:18:06
their behavior is well you know um if
00:18:09
things are going to get hard i'll deal
00:18:11
with it in the future but right now i
00:18:12
have money in my pocket and you know if
00:18:14
you look at
00:18:15
airlines and um how many people are
00:18:18
trying to travel if you just look at
00:18:19
like the cost of a hotel room if you
00:18:20
look at what's happening this summer it
00:18:22
does not seem like people are slowing
00:18:24
down or tapping the brakes in any way
00:18:26
yeah this is where i get concerned about
00:18:28
credit because it's not coming from wage
00:18:30
gains you know the increased cost is
00:18:32
there
00:18:33
the increased income is not
00:18:35
and you know we're seeing continue month
00:18:37
after month increases in consumer credit
00:18:39
balances
00:18:41
um and that i think you know this was
00:18:43
the point i made a few episodes ago was
00:18:44
i don't think people are going to slow
00:18:45
down how they're living and how they're
00:18:46
spending it's exactly um
00:18:50
there's an inertia there's actually i
00:18:51
don't know about that
00:18:53
i don't know i i just think after two
00:18:55
years of a lockdown i do think that
00:18:56
people are anxious to
00:18:58
re-establish
00:19:00
some amount of normalcy and this is
00:19:02
really the first summer where everybody
00:19:04
wrote large can be out and do the things
00:19:06
that they were planning
00:19:08
fake summer yeah last year was a little
00:19:09
bit of a head fake and look you have two
00:19:11
years of pent-up plans of you know
00:19:13
50th anniversaries and weddings and all
00:19:16
of this stuff that's happening and so i
00:19:18
think people are really spending money
00:19:20
and if you look at it you know the the
00:19:21
consumer is holding up amazingly it's
00:19:24
got to be some combination of jobs home
00:19:25
prices um and this inflation but this is
00:19:28
why there has not been a downtick in
00:19:30
demand i don't know why everybody thinks
00:19:32
that there's been a downtick in demand
00:19:33
there was an article today numbers yet
00:19:35
it's not showing up in the numbers yet
00:19:39
very subtle okay sure it is there is a
00:19:41
subtle i actually disagree with you guys
00:19:42
i actually think that the economy is
00:19:44
pivoting on a dime here and it's it's
00:19:47
starting to show up subtly in the
00:19:48
numbers here's some other data points
00:19:50
consumer sentiment biggest drop in
00:19:52
consumer sentiment in 40 years that was
00:19:54
in the last month
00:19:56
right track ron track polling only 10 of
00:19:58
the country thinks we're on the right
00:20:00
track if you poll people and ask are we
00:20:02
in a recession something like plus 60 of
00:20:05
the country already thinks we're in a
00:20:06
recession there's a slight political
00:20:08
tent to that more republicans than
00:20:09
democrats think we're in a recession
00:20:11
however even roughly half of democrats
00:20:13
think we're in a recession so
00:20:16
those are all feelings not behavior
00:20:18
though sacks we're looking at the data
00:20:20
not the sentiment i think the behavior
00:20:22
will catch up with the sentiment i think
00:20:23
the behavior is i think the behavior is
00:20:25
pivoting it's just that i think you have
00:20:27
to dig beneath the
00:20:28
surface and you have to look at things
00:20:30
like retail sales things like that
00:20:32
i'm not sure david if you look back on
00:20:34
all the number of times consumer
00:20:36
sentiment is dipped that the correlation
00:20:38
to spending patterns is so uniformly
00:20:40
predictive as we think i mean i think
00:20:42
that there are there's a slight positive
00:20:44
correlation i remember but i don't think
00:20:45
it's like you know .75.8
00:20:49
it's not that so there's this weird
00:20:51
preference falsification that happens
00:20:52
when you get asked what do you think is
00:20:54
going to happen versus what do you do
00:20:56
yeah and i think a lot of consumers
00:20:57
that's why they have you know we know
00:20:59
the data in america like less than a
00:21:01
month of savings or whatever those
00:21:02
numbers are
00:21:04
despite all of the sentiment analysis
00:21:06
and all of the stuff you would think
00:21:07
that there be behavior change but mostly
00:21:09
people kind of just live in the moment
00:21:11
and you know that that's partly because
00:21:13
they don't have the
00:21:15
structural support to save or other
00:21:18
things but the reality is that most
00:21:19
folks
00:21:20
from what they say to what they behave
00:21:22
there is a gap yeah and to your point
00:21:24
saks um this is starting to catch up
00:21:27
we're seeing a slight uh down tick and
00:21:29
we'll go to real estate next but if you
00:21:31
look i found i was doing some research
00:21:33
on gasoline because that's obviously
00:21:34
where people getting hit the most the
00:21:36
average household is now spending 5 000
00:21:38
a year on gasoline that's almost double
00:21:40
last year so this is gonna have an
00:21:42
impact it's going to catch up but
00:21:43
there's so many jobs available and
00:21:45
there's so many people unemployed i
00:21:46
think it's manageable so to your point
00:21:48
your mouth it feels like consumers can
00:21:50
manage even this great headwind let me
00:21:52
just
00:21:53
put a point to it i think the average
00:21:57
uh per capita income in the us is about
00:21:59
38 thousand dollars a year that works
00:22:00
out to about
00:22:02
17
00:22:03
bucks and 50 cents an hour roughly um
00:22:06
think about a person um with that level
00:22:08
of earnings the average household in the
00:22:11
u.s has historically you know
00:22:13
spent about a third
00:22:14
on housing
00:22:16
about 13 on food and about 16 on you
00:22:20
know their car and their gas
00:22:21
and they only have about 12 left over
00:22:24
for savings
00:22:25
so you know if that 13 on food has
00:22:28
jumped by 30 percent the 16 that they're
00:22:30
spending on gas has jumped by 40 or 50
00:22:33
percent and even if housing prices take
00:22:36
up a little bit
00:22:37
all of a sudden your savings are gone
00:22:39
and you're actually not getting it's
00:22:40
actually doubled freeburg it's doubled i
00:22:42
guess so yeah by the way it's worse than
00:22:43
you say no it's worse than you say
00:22:45
because you're you're using a per capita
00:22:46
number yeah yeah and so what
00:22:49
but i think what i'm trying to highlight
00:22:50
is that there is a distribution there is
00:22:52
a group of um the united states a small
00:22:54
percentage of minority that have earned
00:22:56
good income and are having their 50th
00:22:58
anniversary like jamaat is talking about
00:22:59
taking their travel and that shows up in
00:23:01
the numbers there's outsized spending
00:23:03
happening with a segment of the economy
00:23:05
and what saks is saying i think is right
00:23:06
as well which is that the majority of
00:23:08
americans
00:23:09
are facing this really critical budget
00:23:11
crisis where their personal spending
00:23:13
levels are now exceeding their income
00:23:14
levels and there's a critical need for
00:23:17
credit and for personal debt and
00:23:19
spending to go down and that's what's
00:23:21
going to drive significant risk in the
00:23:22
next couple of months and quarters and
00:23:24
years
00:23:25
is the majority it looks some of the
00:23:27
numbers will look good because there's a
00:23:28
segment of the economy that is
00:23:30
overspending but the majority of the
00:23:31
economy is as sax is saying probably
00:23:33
turning on a dime and i think both
00:23:35
things can be true yeah let me let me
00:23:37
maybe tie a couple of these things
00:23:39
together because i i tend to agree with
00:23:41
you like i think that we
00:23:44
have been in a supply-side recession
00:23:45
that is what has caused inflation
00:23:48
we have to go through a process
00:23:51
of taking all the excess money that's
00:23:53
been put in
00:23:54
out
00:23:56
and when you do that we will destroy
00:23:58
demand and then that will trigger a
00:24:00
demand side recession because people
00:24:02
will asset values and we will destroy
00:24:04
asset values so
00:24:06
that process asset values went real
00:24:08
quick yeah that will happen second
00:24:10
so the balance sheets of that segment of
00:24:11
the population that is overspending
00:24:13
right now once their balance sheets
00:24:15
really take the hit and they take a hard
00:24:16
look at what their savings are they're
00:24:17
going to cut spending
00:24:19
right yeah so but the point is i think
00:24:21
we're still firmly in that first phase
00:24:23
and and i hate to be the bearer of bad
00:24:25
news but the reason why i think that
00:24:26
we're still in the first part of this
00:24:28
process is because people broadly
00:24:31
speaking
00:24:33
still have a lot of savings because of
00:24:35
all the stimulus checks there is still a
00:24:37
lot of money so what how will we know
00:24:40
maybe is the better point
00:24:42
when all of that excess savings has been
00:24:45
you know
00:24:46
torn away from these people because of
00:24:48
high prices i suspect it's when jason's
00:24:51
first chart starts to close right so
00:24:53
when people are you know go they're more
00:24:55
motivated to re-enter the workforce i
00:24:57
think that's the signal free br your
00:25:00
signal is another one which is when
00:25:01
credit delinquencies
00:25:03
really start to spike it's because
00:25:04
people then you know tapped out their
00:25:06
savings then they tap their credit cards
00:25:08
and then all of a sudden they become
00:25:09
delinquent when all of those things
00:25:11
happen you're probably now at a point
00:25:13
where that first phase of the supply
00:25:15
side issues
00:25:16
are largely done and now you get to the
00:25:18
demand destruction but all of those
00:25:20
roads
00:25:21
unfortunately lead to the same
00:25:23
conclusion which is like you know
00:25:25
equities get really under pressure there
00:25:27
is no scenario where there's a bid to
00:25:29
equities why would you buy something
00:25:31
that has lower earnings in the future or
00:25:34
why would you buy something that has a
00:25:36
lower discount rate for profits in the
00:25:38
future in this case both are true all
00:25:40
right let's get to that because the
00:25:42
piece we haven't got to so here's the
00:25:43
river card is housing because people's
00:25:46
homes are the majority of their wealth
00:25:48
here in the united states and that i
00:25:49
think will be the true indicator chamoth
00:25:51
to your point labor participation
00:25:53
certainly won but when this hits housing
00:25:55
that's when we're going to know we're in
00:25:56
the end game the mortgage rate just hit
00:25:58
5.3 percent um why why do you say
00:26:01
housing is the end game well i i think
00:26:03
we haven't seen uh the collapse of
00:26:05
housing prices yet we're in a housing
00:26:07
shortage and historically mortgages are
00:26:09
still at um
00:26:11
you know the 30-year average so let me
00:26:14
just give you the statistics here the
00:26:15
mortgage rate is uh 5.3
00:26:17
uh if you look at this chart from our
00:26:19
childhood on our parents in the 80s were
00:26:22
paying 15 16 70
00:26:24
17 for their mortgages we're well below
00:26:27
the 50-year average even with the uh
00:26:29
rate hikes and so the 50-year average
00:26:32
for mortgages the 30-year mortgage is
00:26:34
7.77 so we're at 5.3 well below that but
00:26:37
well uh this has been a very quick
00:26:39
turnaround from two and a half percent
00:26:41
mortgages all the way up to five point
00:26:42
three percent
00:26:43
home sales have started to show weakness
00:26:46
so to sax's point this is starting to
00:26:47
show up in the numbers but ever so much
00:26:50
um we're down six percent almost seven
00:26:52
percent year over year and
00:26:54
3.5 month over month but we're holding
00:26:56
up historically so
00:26:58
for the last 10 years we've been selling
00:26:59
over 5 million homes a month with the
00:27:01
exception of the pandemic shutdown and
00:27:03
that's this next chart you're going to
00:27:04
see here and this is a really amazing
00:27:06
chart i found which is existing home
00:27:08
sales versus a 30 year fixed rate
00:27:10
mortgage in our childhoods in the 80s
00:27:12
we're selling 2-3 million homes a year
00:27:15
as you see the rates that's the orange
00:27:16
line come down massively from 17 and
00:27:19
then under 10 percent housing starts to
00:27:22
flip people start flipping houses more
00:27:23
and more often um
00:27:25
but we're still at that 5 million that
00:27:27
number's got to drop down to
00:27:29
probably four and then we would actually
00:27:31
have some capitulation uh feedback from
00:27:35
the panel i mean look there's an old
00:27:37
saying that a recession is when your
00:27:40
neighbor loses his job and a depression
00:27:42
is when you lose your job and the
00:27:45
reality is we haven't had the big job
00:27:47
losses yet it's starting we can start to
00:27:49
see it and the number of open wrecks are
00:27:51
getting closed and then there were those
00:27:53
job loss numbers that just came out
00:27:54
which were a little higher than expected
00:27:56
so the job losses are starting but so
00:27:58
far it's really been the step prior to
00:28:00
that which is people are seeing their
00:28:02
401ks get destroyed stock markets down
00:28:05
they're seeing their wages get destroyed
00:28:07
by inflation food and gas prices being
00:28:09
much higher so there's a really good
00:28:11
reason why people are sentiment is so
00:28:13
negative out there people feel poorer
00:28:15
than they were before and this could get
00:28:17
worse like you're saying jason with
00:28:18
their nest egg in their homes getting
00:28:20
hit i agree that's the next shoe to drop
00:28:22
just like the commercial real estate is
00:28:24
the next shoe to drop but
00:28:26
i think the really big question over the
00:28:28
next six months is what sort of job
00:28:30
losses do we see because that really is
00:28:32
going to be the big determinant of
00:28:34
of how hard this recession hits yeah i
00:28:37
agree with you and it's it doesn't look
00:28:38
like if we if we're losing 300 000 jobs
00:28:41
a month it's going to take a long time
00:28:43
for us to even get to one for one jobs
00:28:46
and so
00:28:48
this is just honestly i think i think
00:28:50
you're right
00:28:51
but i think we're not even close to that
00:28:53
i just don't see
00:28:55
where all of a sudden there are these
00:28:57
writ large mass layoffs for example i
00:29:00
would believe what you're saying if if
00:29:02
the headline
00:29:04
in the wall street journal said walmart
00:29:06
lays off 10 000 people right that's not
00:29:08
what's happening in in fact it's the
00:29:10
exact opposite walmart's like well you
00:29:12
know we seem to have record demand we're
00:29:14
raising prices and and every supplier
00:29:16
will have to pay a gas tax and a
00:29:18
supplier tax and deal with it so i just
00:29:21
think that you're you're going to be
00:29:22
right in the end
00:29:24
i just think we're way too early in this
00:29:26
process to get to that place where we
00:29:28
did we're debating this i i don't see so
00:29:30
chamath are you on board with the the
00:29:32
ackman trade basically you know ackman
00:29:34
basically came out that tweet storm a
00:29:35
couple of days ago basically saying
00:29:37
that listen inflation is still the big
00:29:39
problem not recession the economy is
00:29:40
humming along there's plenty of jobs and
00:29:43
we're going to have a persistent problem
00:29:45
with inflation i think he's kind of
00:29:46
right and kind of wrong i think that you
00:29:48
can have inflation and a recession at
00:29:51
the same time this is what my point is i
00:29:53
think we have been in
00:29:54
a supply-side recession meaning
00:29:57
the day of the pandemic it's not as if
00:30:00
demand stopped it's not as if you and i
00:30:02
david didn't want to go out or use door
00:30:04
dash or take an uber or watch a movie in
00:30:06
a movie theater we were not allowed
00:30:09
right and so we found other ways in in
00:30:11
order to fulfill our demand that's why
00:30:13
shopify you know did so well on behalf
00:30:15
of the merchants that they served that's
00:30:17
why robin hood did so well that's why
00:30:19
fortnite did so well right we found
00:30:21
other places to spend money
00:30:23
but what went away was the supply and
00:30:26
those incentives didn't come back and
00:30:27
they're still not back that's why prices
00:30:29
keep going up this is the problem is the
00:30:32
definition of a recession right
00:30:33
chemotherapy it's not the problem that
00:30:35
most people don't understand that you
00:30:36
can have a supply side recession and a
00:30:38
demand side recession they just manifest
00:30:40
in different ways
00:30:41
so well i think i think i think like i
00:30:44
guess ackman is roughly right in some
00:30:46
ways he's roughly not so right in some
00:30:49
others i think that we have an issue
00:30:51
where we are going to transfer
00:30:54
the supply side issues that are driving
00:30:56
inflation
00:30:58
to average everyday consumers and their
00:31:00
ability to buy things
00:31:02
i still think that the average everyday
00:31:04
consumers desire to buy things is what
00:31:07
it was from before and on the margin is
00:31:09
probably higher
00:31:11
i do think at some point it will start
00:31:13
to change when prices get high enough
00:31:16
but i don't think we've reached that
00:31:18
point of equilibrium yet and the reason
00:31:20
is because
00:31:21
companies like the walmarts of the world
00:31:23
who see this demand
00:31:26
on literally a real-time basis
00:31:29
knows better than anybody else when and
00:31:30
how much they can raise prices
00:31:32
downstream into their supply chain so
00:31:34
when you see something like this in the
00:31:35
wall street journal i would just
00:31:36
encourage us all to say they must see
00:31:39
that demand is the same or better
00:31:41
and so they're going to now push those
00:31:44
price increases down to everybody else
00:31:46
because now walmart says here is an
00:31:48
opportunity for me to defend my earnings
00:31:50
power
00:31:51
and this is why i think we're in this
00:31:53
first inning of this so i don't know
00:31:54
whether ackman is right or wrong
00:31:56
but i think we're in the early phases of
00:31:59
a two-phase recession
00:32:01
and i don't know what that looks like
00:32:02
because i've never lived through one of
00:32:04
those and i think in many ways it's the
00:32:06
combination of the two
00:32:08
and it was it was largely because of
00:32:10
government failure government failure
00:32:12
and how we reacted to the pandemic in
00:32:14
hindsight saks was right all along
00:32:16
we overreacted by shutting everything
00:32:18
down we probably could have kept some
00:32:19
supply online by understanding masking
00:32:22
early on
00:32:23
and then second we exacerbated with
00:32:25
failed government policy because we gave
00:32:27
everybody trillions and trillions of
00:32:28
dollars and we entered the capital
00:32:30
markets and perverted it with another
00:32:32
seven or eight trillion more and by the
00:32:33
way that has consequences well the
00:32:36
consequences are still talking about
00:32:38
giving stimulus
00:32:40
now in order to um help people deal with
00:32:43
so we are not we are not learning second
00:32:46
you can't pour fire so if i lean on the
00:32:48
fire
00:32:49
if i had to basically put what we are
00:32:52
all saying into a neat little bow i
00:32:54
would say
00:32:55
there needs to be a multi-phased
00:32:57
economic correction
00:32:58
one that corrects the supply that we
00:33:00
took out of the market during the
00:33:02
pandemic
00:33:03
one that corrects for all the excess
00:33:05
money and then one that corrects for
00:33:07
demand
00:33:09
that's a lot of stuff we have to do and
00:33:11
so the more
00:33:12
misguided government policy we have the
00:33:14
farther away from finding that
00:33:16
equilibrium point we're going to be the
00:33:17
longer it's going to take the more
00:33:18
damage it's going to be so sax the fed
00:33:21
is obviously uh it's pretty much
00:33:23
consensus they're going to do another
00:33:24
0.75 75 basis points later this month
00:33:27
could be 50 basis points who knows there
00:33:29
seems to be a couple of people saying
00:33:31
that that might happen
00:33:33
if that does happen and it feels like
00:33:35
inflation is starting to top out do you
00:33:37
think inflation
00:33:39
you know starts to turn or do you think
00:33:41
we're still going to see prices go up
00:33:43
because it does feel like it was
00:33:45
starting to bounce along the ceiling
00:33:48
what do you think's going to happen if
00:33:48
the 0.75 happens you're seeing the
00:33:50
market rally today in the last few days
00:33:52
especially growth stocks because of this
00:33:54
idea that the fed is tackling inflation
00:33:57
they're raising rates and the market is
00:33:59
looking out six months and seeing the
00:34:01
possibility of recession and they
00:34:03
believe that is going to bring down
00:34:05
demand and bring down prices and it
00:34:07
could i mean what i just described would
00:34:10
be a soft landing i just am skeptical
00:34:12
there's going to be a soft landing
00:34:13
because of what math is saying which is
00:34:15
this is a multi-part problem and until
00:34:18
we fix the supply side i don't think
00:34:20
that merely reducing demand is going to
00:34:22
get us out of this
00:34:23
i really agree with you it's a
00:34:25
production problem
00:34:26
it's a demand problem
00:34:28
and
00:34:29
it's also as we just talked about a few
00:34:31
minutes ago an employment problem
00:34:33
because the businesses that need to grow
00:34:35
that need to generate revenue cannot get
00:34:37
the businesses that are dependent on
00:34:39
people to do service jobs cannot get
00:34:41
those jobs filled and so they cannot
00:34:42
grow their revenue cannot make their
00:34:44
profits and there's a trickling effect
00:34:46
in the economy of that you know what we
00:34:48
talked about that kind of job shift that
00:34:50
job market shift that's happened so all
00:34:52
three and so all three are just this
00:34:54
like dislocation that's happened totally
00:34:56
right and it's unclear you know
00:34:59
someone very smart i was talking to
00:35:01
yesterday
00:35:02
who's a former um
00:35:06
member of um an administration said um
00:35:09
we just there's literally no way to
00:35:11
predict we just don't because think
00:35:13
about the complexity of throwing three
00:35:14
rocks in a pond how do those three rocks
00:35:17
interact and how the ripples interact is
00:35:19
really what we're trying to predict and
00:35:20
it's very hard to do i mean if you
00:35:22
translate this into the markets for one
00:35:23
second
00:35:25
i think what we've done since november
00:35:27
of 21 then nick you should play this
00:35:29
clip because you know not to say you
00:35:31
know we didn't see this coming but we
00:35:33
really did you know we pointed to
00:35:36
you know one of our friends and the
00:35:37
person somebody else that we kind of
00:35:38
know bezos and elon and we said
00:35:41
when the two smartest capital allocators
00:35:42
in the world
00:35:44
start divesting
00:35:46
they clearly understand and see things
00:35:48
that the rest of us should pay attention
00:35:49
to and to ignore it seems reckless or
00:35:52
the clip and we'll be back in 30 seconds
00:35:54
after the clip
00:35:55
the two most important founders of our
00:35:58
generation the two smartest people who
00:36:00
have really consistently won elon musk
00:36:02
and jeff bezos have collectively sold
00:36:04
more than 11 billion of their holdings
00:36:06
this year alone and if you can't take
00:36:08
all of that and decide for yourself
00:36:10
what's right for you and your family
00:36:11
you're doing yourself a disservice i
00:36:13
think it's important for me to never
00:36:15
sort of like be forced to tell folks
00:36:17
whether i'm buying or selling although
00:36:18
i'm willing to do it in moments where i
00:36:20
think it's important but i think it's
00:36:22
really important to understand the
00:36:23
context and so i think like these folks
00:36:25
that like think
00:36:26
derisively about individuals who are
00:36:28
managing risk i think it's really naive
00:36:30
and i think it's um it creates a lot of
00:36:33
missed opportunity for them as well if
00:36:35
the smartest people in the world are now
00:36:38
selling their core holdings that they
00:36:40
told you they would never sell
00:36:43
and you are not
00:36:45
reconsidering your position on things
00:36:47
you're either much smarter than them or
00:36:50
you're being really really reckless
00:36:53
that was november you know and at that
00:36:55
moment i started a bunch of
00:36:57
things in process which we can talk
00:36:59
about at the end but i also sold a bunch
00:37:01
of the warriors positions i started a
00:37:02
process at that point and i sold a piece
00:37:04
in december and then i just sold the
00:37:06
last piece this week but then you know i
00:37:08
sold a big piece of sofia in that moment
00:37:11
um but the the point was more the
00:37:13
following which is
00:37:15
since that clip
00:37:16
to today
00:37:18
what we've gone through is a massive
00:37:20
re-rating of the discount factor of
00:37:23
these companies assuming nothing else
00:37:25
changes
00:37:26
right that's all we've done we've we've
00:37:28
not questioned whether earnings can
00:37:30
change
00:37:31
you know all we said is okay well now
00:37:33
we're going to take the discount rate up
00:37:35
which means the value of this company is
00:37:36
less than it used to be that's all we've
00:37:38
done through all of this wealth
00:37:40
destruction that's happened since
00:37:42
november
00:37:43
but now the second shoe has to drop
00:37:45
which is if you believe that after the
00:37:47
supply-side issues are resolved you go
00:37:49
through a demand destruction phase
00:37:52
the earnings of these companies are in
00:37:53
real trouble and jason you posted
00:37:55
something i think about the social media
00:37:57
companies and
00:37:58
addresses gonna get hit right so one of
00:38:00
the first things to go into recession is
00:38:01
advertising if you're going to belt
00:38:03
titan at a company where can you do it
00:38:05
well you lay off employees but you can't
00:38:06
get out of your leases as we talked
00:38:07
about in real estate but you can cut
00:38:09
your spending on marketing and so uh
00:38:12
right now the the it's looking pretty
00:38:13
bleak for uh facebook because of the
00:38:16
headwinds they have so the earnings
00:38:18
could drop which means and by the way
00:38:19
the tax ratio could be totally we talked
00:38:21
about that things are not
00:38:23
real right well we talked about that we
00:38:25
talked about that over the last few
00:38:26
weeks which is every time the market
00:38:28
rallied oddly facebook would be stagnant
00:38:30
or trade off and we know when i called
00:38:33
people on wall street what they said was
00:38:34
because
00:38:35
you know we think this is the company
00:38:37
that has the most pressure on earnings i
00:38:38
don't know if that's true or not but
00:38:40
they took every opportunity and rallies
00:38:42
to trim their position in facebook now
00:38:44
if that's true
00:38:45
you have to remind yourself that is one
00:38:46
of the 10 best companies in the entire
00:38:48
world
00:38:49
and so if you're going to go and
00:38:50
question the earnings power of one of
00:38:52
the 10 best companies in the world
00:38:54
you may want to consider the earnings
00:38:56
power of every other company that's not
00:38:58
facebook there are so many things to the
00:39:00
facebook story they are facing a unique
00:39:02
disruptive moment with apple
00:39:05
uh ankling their ability to target users
00:39:07
supposedly google might follow suit with
00:39:09
that which would be super
00:39:10
anti-competitive and also the surging
00:39:13
tick tock uh taking market share from
00:39:15
them there's some good news in energy
00:39:17
which will then dovetail into politics
00:39:19
and into this farming situation
00:39:20
freedberg turkish government claims it
00:39:22
discovered almost 700 million metric
00:39:24
tons of rare earth minerals it's 15
00:39:26
times china's reserve if this is true
00:39:30
you guys probably know we use about 150
00:39:32
000 metric tons
00:39:34
a year right now that's going to double
00:39:35
by 20 30. this is something like 4 000
00:39:38
years at the current demand and this
00:39:39
would put them far beyond anybody else's
00:39:42
chamati you've got investments in this
00:39:44
space i don't know if you've been
00:39:45
tracking this news thoughts on another
00:39:48
massive discovery of rare earths what
00:39:51
did you guys just have dinner dinner
00:39:52
reserve what do you guys no that's the
00:39:54
best she brought she brought us she got
00:39:55
a little pasta show me there's an
00:39:57
incredible restaurant here in milan
00:39:59
called desantis which
00:40:01
makes the best paninis you've ever
00:40:02
tasted is this a harbinger of the future
00:40:05
desantis what could be more perfect than
00:40:06
that oh the desantis panini here you go
00:40:09
this is the oracle sex with the
00:40:11
subliminal influence absolutely so good
00:40:13
this is what's going to get us out of
00:40:14
this situation desantis
00:40:17
all right chem off just quickly on the
00:40:18
rare earths uh if this is actually true
00:40:21
what would this do uh
00:40:23
and have you been tracking this
00:40:24
situation because it does seem to happen
00:40:26
there's some truth to it yeah i think
00:40:27
it's important to just take a step back
00:40:28
and kind of
00:40:29
look at this thing with not like
00:40:31
complete skepticism but just a little
00:40:34
skepticism it's okay not surprising that
00:40:37
there's additional deposits all around
00:40:38
the world meaning
00:40:40
we've always said rare earths are not
00:40:41
particularly that rare it's just the
00:40:43
question is you know which of the 17
00:40:46
rare earth elements
00:40:48
at what grade meaning at what percent
00:40:50
concentration does it exist and then
00:40:53
really importantly at what cost
00:40:55
to extract it economically yeah right so
00:40:57
meaning there's a ton of underdeveloped
00:40:59
rare earth athletes in canada the us
00:41:02
africa australia brazil brazil they're
00:41:04
just under under developed because when
00:41:06
you put all of these factors together
00:41:08
it's really tough so the government
00:41:10
release says they're going to process
00:41:11
like 570 000 tons of war that'll produce
00:41:14
around 10 000 kilotons per year of rare
00:41:16
earths that implies sort of a 1.75 to 2
00:41:20
grade it's fine
00:41:22
so there's just a lot more work i would
00:41:23
just sort of say it's really
00:41:25
directionally great a lot more work
00:41:27
needs to be done and more importantly
00:41:30
they need to release enough of this
00:41:32
detail so folks like us and others can
00:41:34
actually diligence it to to tell you
00:41:36
more accurately but the press release
00:41:38
was exciting freeberg this reminds me a
00:41:40
little bit of the peak oil head fake we
00:41:43
had you know 15 years ago everybody
00:41:46
basically said we're not going to find
00:41:47
more oil here's what's left of oil and
00:41:49
then norway is like yeah we just found
00:41:50
more oil than existed previously it's
00:41:52
been pulled out and the whole concept
00:41:54
that the world's going to run out of oil
00:41:56
is now gone so freeberg what is
00:41:58
happening in science that
00:42:00
we just can't predict what resources are
00:42:02
available we know very little about
00:42:04
what's inside the below the a certain
00:42:07
depth of the crust of the earth so
00:42:10
um
00:42:11
you know there's some estimates but
00:42:13
we're always surprised and we know very
00:42:15
little about the distribution of those
00:42:17
elements in the crust of the earth and
00:42:18
below the crust of the earth
00:42:20
you know mining is an incredible
00:42:21
industry i don't know
00:42:23
the state of the art in engineering and
00:42:25
mining very well
00:42:26
but you know from a pure geophysics
00:42:29
point of view by some estimates we have
00:42:31
10 billion years
00:42:33
of energy reserves
00:42:35
below the crust of the earth that we can
00:42:37
access in the form of
00:42:39
nuclear reserves
00:42:40
geothermal power
00:42:42
and that's excluding you know some of
00:42:44
the the you know the potential of some
00:42:46
of these elements and what they could do
00:42:48
um in building a more sustainable energy
00:42:50
economy why is people so pessimistic
00:42:51
when we keep surprising ourselves and
00:42:54
more resources
00:42:55
anyone wants a great book uh none of you
00:42:58
guys were at the dinner that i did a few
00:42:59
weeks ago where we had stephen pinker
00:43:01
come for dinner yeah read his book
00:43:03
enlightenment now or you could watch one
00:43:05
of his uh videos on youtube where he's
00:43:07
got like all 60 slides
00:43:09
and he highlights like you know humans
00:43:11
have a tendency to focus on the risks
00:43:13
and the concerns and the downsides and
00:43:15
we miss the incredible optimism
00:43:17
um that is apparent as we actually look
00:43:19
at the data of what's happening with our
00:43:21
species and what we're doing on our
00:43:23
planet we have every reason to be
00:43:24
optimistic you know we have fewer wars
00:43:26
than we've ever had
00:43:28
murder rate per capita is lowest than it
00:43:29
ever been longevity is increasing health
00:43:31
is increasing per capita i think
00:43:33
everything's increasing and i think that
00:43:35
the same is true in terms of you know
00:43:37
scientific breakthroughs discovery and
00:43:38
engineering our way to a more
00:43:40
sustainable energy and food future this
00:43:42
is one of the great things about having
00:43:44
you as a friend freeberg is your
00:43:45
relentless optimism and your actual cool
00:43:48
comp collective lack of anxiety uh
00:43:50
another amazing news for me the eu
00:43:52
parliament has flipped again credit
00:43:55
thurmberg is completely tilted we talked
00:43:58
about the virtual signaling eu
00:43:59
parliament you know and uh germany
00:44:02
turning off their nuclear power plants
00:44:04
and and just securing the bag for putin
00:44:07
the eu parliament flipped and they are
00:44:09
now saying these virtual signaling
00:44:11
knuckleheads they came to the sensors
00:44:13
and now they believe nuclear is green
00:44:15
also green according to the eu
00:44:17
parliament
00:44:18
is natural gas
00:44:20
so uh this to me feels like the
00:44:21
beginning of the end for putin in saudi
00:44:23
arabia uh if you look at the us becoming
00:44:26
a net exporter uh of energy uh it's
00:44:29
quite possible the eu could become that
00:44:30
as well if they actually
00:44:32
and this is a big f if they actually
00:44:35
you know
00:44:36
start building nuclear it could be the
00:44:38
beginning of the end of what some people
00:44:39
are calling the woke green movement
00:44:41
and this is certainly over this
00:44:43
realization
00:44:45
that to transition to the next car to
00:44:47
the uh beyond the carbon economy is
00:44:49
going to require continuing to invest in
00:44:51
and support the carbon economy until
00:44:53
those alternative solutions emerge and
00:44:55
to have dual track investing and i think
00:44:58
that's what we're seeing around the
00:44:59
world in the united states in europe now
00:45:01
and europe has always been farther way
00:45:03
farther left in the united states in
00:45:05
taking this point of view and i think
00:45:06
now this this has been a wake-up call
00:45:08
for everyone and all it took was just a
00:45:10
little bit of six dollar gasoline and
00:45:13
for people to personally suffer for them
00:45:15
to change their virtual signaling
00:45:16
nonsense yeah this is this is markets at
00:45:19
work
00:45:20
yeah this is literally educating the
00:45:21
public would you rather be beholden to
00:45:23
putin they pivoted because would you
00:45:25
rather have nukes they pivoted from
00:45:26
banning energy production to banning
00:45:29
food production
00:45:30
should we talk about
00:45:33
so on the energy side uh i did a in the
00:45:35
group chat just a little breakdown on
00:45:37
the math i think it may be interesting
00:45:38
for people to understand
00:45:40
but today globally around the world
00:45:43
every single country in the world that
00:45:46
is involved in the oil business
00:45:48
is able to produce exactly one million
00:45:51
more barrels per day
00:45:54
than we need so let's assume that we you
00:45:56
know need a hundred million barrels of
00:45:58
oil a day as a as a as a world
00:46:01
to continue to do everything we want to
00:46:03
do we produce 101 million so we're right
00:46:06
on the knife's edge
00:46:07
by august
00:46:09
we're going to go through um a capacity
00:46:11
increase in opec plus which is you know
00:46:15
opec plus russia etc
00:46:18
uh saudi arabia is going to go from 10
00:46:20
million barrels a day to 11 million
00:46:22
barrels so not a huge increase
00:46:24
um russia has is is thought to be able
00:46:28
to cut production if they feel pressure
00:46:31
up to 5 million barrels a day without
00:46:33
having any impact to their economy
00:46:36
so jp morgan i think and um
00:46:39
uh credit suisse they they did this
00:46:41
sensitivity analysis
00:46:43
and here's what they found
00:46:44
they found that if russia were to cut
00:46:46
three million barrels of oil
00:46:49
so we would go from being over supplied
00:46:51
by one million to under supplied by two
00:46:54
the price of oil would go to about 180 a
00:46:56
barrel
00:46:57
if they cut 5 million so the threshold
00:47:00
at which their economy doesn't really
00:47:01
get that impacted
00:47:03
the price of oil could go as high as 380
00:47:05
a barrel
00:47:06
while you would say okay well we just
00:47:08
need to pump more oil from other places
00:47:10
and this is the problem in all of these
00:47:12
rules that have existed for so long the
00:47:14
capacity doesn't exist right we were
00:47:16
destroying supply
00:47:18
governments all around the world were
00:47:20
making it very difficult to generate the
00:47:21
supply of nuclear to generate the supply
00:47:24
of oil and to generate the supply
00:47:27
of nat gas so saudi arabia says we can
00:47:30
get to 12 million
00:47:31
well guess what they can only start the
00:47:33
work in 2024
00:47:35
they'll be done in 2027. yeah so to your
00:47:38
point all of a sudden we realize wait we
00:47:41
needed these bridge fuels
00:47:43
all along
00:47:44
how did we allow all of the supply
00:47:46
destruction to happen and now we need to
00:47:48
unwind it it's going to be a very
00:47:50
complicated process and if any of these
00:47:52
things happen if russia decides to play
00:47:54
hardball against
00:47:56
europe or america we better hope that
00:47:59
it's a mild winter because very quickly
00:48:01
you can go from plus one million barrels
00:48:03
to minus two in a heartbeat yeah at
00:48:05
american start and the last point on
00:48:07
this about saudi arabia you'd say okay
00:48:09
well saudi arabia is going to go from 10
00:48:10
to 11 so that's good they have been at
00:48:12
11 million for a sum total of eight
00:48:14
weeks in their entire lifetime if we
00:48:16
look at this i mean americans also
00:48:18
buying 20 to 25 mile per gallon cars
00:48:21
that's got to end too and so personal
00:48:23
responsibility uh is part of this the
00:48:26
really interesting thing is china
00:48:27
already has this plan uh their nuclear
00:48:29
strategy with the belton road
00:48:31
initiative is to put 30 nuclear actors
00:48:34
in countries outside of china that
00:48:36
they're trying to have influence in and
00:48:37
they're they're building 30 nukes right
00:48:39
now they got 150 planned so
00:48:43
china's just ultimately savvy and
00:48:45
thinking big here about energy
00:48:47
independence and we need to follow them
00:48:49
uh other big anybody have anything else
00:48:51
on the energy situation before we go to
00:48:53
uh
00:48:54
the farming situation
00:48:56
let's get to the farming situation okay
00:48:58
so dutch farmers are in revolt
00:49:00
after a new proposed law to cut
00:49:01
emissions uh on tuesday dutch lawmakers
00:49:04
voted on proposals to slash emissions of
00:49:06
pollutants
00:49:07
uh like nitrogen oxide and ammonia
00:49:11
they're targeting a 50 cut nationwide by
00:49:15
livestock produces these emissions so
00:49:17
the plan will likely force dutch farmers
00:49:19
to cut their livestock herds or stop
00:49:21
working all together
00:49:22
farmers protested
00:49:24
they put their tractors outside
00:49:25
buildings they dump fertilizer
00:49:28
40 000 farmers gathered last week in the
00:49:30
central netherlands agricultural
00:49:31
heartland to protest these plans um and
00:49:34
started shooting at them
00:49:36
uh
00:49:37
these uh tractors were doing some uh
00:49:39
pretty gnarly things uh and stopping
00:49:42
traffic and guess
00:49:44
um and
00:49:45
there were some shots were fired
00:49:47
were they no wait the government fired
00:49:49
shots the protesters were unarmed as far
00:49:52
as
00:49:53
but supposedly they were doing something
00:49:54
dangerous
00:49:56
were they honking
00:50:05
threatening the safety of
00:50:08
this is the other side of the story saks
00:50:10
um listen neither of us were there but
00:50:11
according to the sources they were using
00:50:13
the tractors to threaten the police like
00:50:16
physical bodily harm and that's why they
00:50:18
unload it we don't know all the details
00:50:19
it'll come out but that sounds
00:50:20
proportionate
00:50:22
i i mean if you had a tractor coming at
00:50:24
you to kill you and you're a police
00:50:25
officer
00:50:27
okay so let's talk about the science of
00:50:29
its science let's go wait is it like the
00:50:31
scene in austin powers where there's a
00:50:33
steamroller coming towards austin
00:50:36
exactly
00:50:38
jason's like oh they're using the
00:50:39
tractor as a weapon that's like really
00:50:41
just i'm i watched people doesn't have a
00:50:43
you were not there i was not there i'm
00:50:44
just telling you what was reported
00:50:46
reporting and reporting what's reported
00:50:48
and nobody knows if those reports are
00:50:49
true so i think look i think it's worth
00:50:51
just highlighting because this is a
00:50:52
really important this is the first time
00:50:54
we've seen
00:50:55
government action of this scale and and
00:50:57
the resulting kind of rebound effect on
00:51:00
something that's really important humans
00:51:02
use roughly between two and six percent
00:51:04
of our energy on earth every year to
00:51:07
make ammonia
00:51:08
ammonia is the primary fertilizer we use
00:51:10
to fertilize our crops around the world
00:51:13
and if not for the invention of the
00:51:14
haber bosch process which you can read
00:51:16
about in the book the alchemy of air and
00:51:18
the creation of ammonia as a synthetic
00:51:20
fertilizer
00:51:22
humans would all have starved in the mid
00:51:23
20th century it's an incredible
00:51:25
technology breakthrough what we've
00:51:26
learned over the years however is that
00:51:28
when ammonia sits on the ground
00:51:30
for too long
00:51:32
it volatilizes and it basically binds
00:51:34
with oxygen and turns into nitrous oxide
00:51:36
and goes into the atmosphere
00:51:38
nitrous oxide is 300 times
00:51:41
more potent as a greenhouse gas than co2
00:51:45
it lasts longer and it absorbs more heat
00:51:48
so there has long been concern about the
00:51:50
overuse of fertilizer and the
00:51:52
overproduction of ammonia that just sits
00:51:54
on the ground for too long that
00:51:56
ultimately creates this incredible
00:51:57
greenhouse gas effect and so there has
00:52:00
been talk in the united states under the
00:52:01
obama administration under multiple epas
00:52:03
there was a supreme court ruling a few
00:52:05
weeks ago that started to touch on
00:52:08
whether or not the epa has regulatory
00:52:09
authority here to actually regulate the
00:52:11
use of ammonia farmers generally put a
00:52:14
lot of ammonia on the ground because
00:52:15
they get higher yields out of their crop
00:52:17
the problem is if that ammonia sits
00:52:19
there for too long it turns into a
00:52:20
greenhouse gas and so regulating ammonia
00:52:22
and regulating this nitrous oxide
00:52:24
emission has been you know at the
00:52:26
forefront of green the green movement at
00:52:28
the forefront of
00:52:30
climate change as one of the ways to
00:52:31
manage um and and and reduce the effects
00:52:34
of global warming from human industry um
00:52:36
and now you know the dutch government
00:52:38
has come out and started to do some of
00:52:39
this regulation it's a little bit um off
00:52:41
because it comes from cows and and we're
00:52:44
seeing what happens off free brook can
00:52:46
we finally admit that it's the vegan's
00:52:47
fault now well at this point actually um
00:52:50
you know
00:52:52
is it is that a yes no no the ammonia
00:52:54
production in the netherlands is from i
00:52:55
mean
00:52:56
the netherlands just you guys know the
00:52:58
netherlands is the world's third largest
00:53:00
dairy exporter
00:53:01
uh they export three billion dollars a
00:53:03
year of milk to the rest of the world to
00:53:05
other countries
00:53:06
um and so they have all these cows that
00:53:07
are like densely packed and they're
00:53:09
peeing everywhere and that pee is
00:53:10
ammonia and it's causing all of these
00:53:12
problems the other problem with ammonia
00:53:13
is if you guys look at the united states
00:53:15
corn farmers farm in the midwest
00:53:17
when it rains the ammonia on their
00:53:20
fields goes into the streams goes into
00:53:21
the mississippi river and goes into the
00:53:24
gulf of mexico in the gulf of mexico
00:53:26
there is a massive hypoxic zone there
00:53:28
are no fish they're all dead because
00:53:29
when ammonia ends up in the water it
00:53:31
kills life and so there's this green
00:53:33
algae and no fish and everything dies
00:53:34
and so that's what the dutch are trying
00:53:36
to regulate and the eu generally has
00:53:37
been trying to regulate is the removal
00:53:40
of excess ammonia in ag production and
00:53:42
in in right but again i still hear
00:53:45
though that if if
00:53:46
if
00:53:47
we ate less vegetables this wouldn't be
00:53:48
a problem not correct not correct most
00:53:51
of the production of ammonia is used to
00:53:52
make animal feed which is used to feed
00:53:54
animals to make beef which is a terrible
00:53:55
decision you could feed it olives as we
00:53:57
know olives tastes delicious with there
00:54:00
because the issue here that is the issue
00:54:02
here that the regulators
00:54:05
hit the brakes too hard on these farmers
00:54:07
and they should have maybe had a more
00:54:08
gradual landing for that is it's been
00:54:10
talked about for a long time and in the
00:54:12
us there's just no way a law is going to
00:54:13
pass because the u.s senate is
00:54:16
controlled primarily by rural states
00:54:18
which are ag heavy so you see a lot of
00:54:20
bit you don't see a lot of bills that
00:54:21
hurt farmers get passed in the united
00:54:23
states because the senate is controlled
00:54:25
by farmers that are elect sorry senators
00:54:27
that are elected by farmer by big
00:54:28
farming communities and farming states
00:54:30
and so um you know it's been hard to get
00:54:32
a regulation like this past where folks
00:54:35
have tried to and talked about doing it
00:54:37
um around the world however in a place
00:54:39
like the netherlands and the eu or as i
00:54:41
mentioned before they're far more
00:54:42
progressive
00:54:43
and have this very kind of green hat on
00:54:46
they're starting to take this sort of
00:54:47
climate change action as they're calling
00:54:49
it and that climate change action
00:54:52
you know does have the ramifications of
00:54:54
destroying by the way one of the things
00:54:55
they said is we expect and this will
00:54:58
destroy the livelihoods of many dairy
00:55:00
farmers in in the netherlands that was
00:55:01
horrible by the way look all kidding
00:55:03
aside i said that they said that
00:55:04
directly by the way and the dairy
00:55:05
farmers are like fu you're not
00:55:07
destroying our business for climate
00:55:08
change i have a specific question though
00:55:10
which is has there not been some efforts
00:55:12
to engineer
00:55:14
how these plants themselves absorb
00:55:16
nitrogen yes
00:55:19
i have three businesses on this totally
00:55:20
right technology is going to solve this
00:55:22
problem i'm super
00:55:23
optimistic on that there are microbes
00:55:26
that are being used to coat seed those
00:55:28
microbes can pull nitrogen out of the
00:55:30
atmosphere directly so you don't need
00:55:32
ammonia
00:55:33
you use far less ammonia there's a
00:55:34
couple companies that are doing this
00:55:35
really effectively they're growing like
00:55:37
crazy they're doing really well
00:55:39
there are other projects uh and there's
00:55:41
very simple solutions my last company we
00:55:42
had a product called nitrogen advisor
00:55:44
where we basically told farmers instead
00:55:46
of dumping all the fertilizer at the
00:55:47
start of the season you paste it out so
00:55:49
the fertilizer doesn't sit there and
00:55:50
volatilize there's all these solutions
00:55:52
that technology allows from software to
00:55:54
bioengineering to these microbial
00:55:56
solutions
00:55:57
and so we're definitely um i think going
00:55:59
to resolve this but meanwhile these
00:56:01
governments are in a frenzy to solve the
00:56:03
climate change problem and you know
00:56:05
they're going to start to pass these
00:56:06
laws that really hurt the livelihoods of
00:56:08
uh you know ag producers how do you guys
00:56:11
think something like this happens
00:56:12
because
00:56:13
typically you would expect when a
00:56:14
government is about to pass something
00:56:15
like this
00:56:16
there's sort of like a pretty fulsome
00:56:18
review and all sides are brought
00:56:20
together and there's working groups and
00:56:22
all of this stuff
00:56:23
and at some point you would talk to some
00:56:25
scientists at other points you would
00:56:26
talk to economists at other points you
00:56:28
talk to the people who'd be directly
00:56:29
affected like the farmers
00:56:32
is it that the virtue signaling around
00:56:34
sustainability and climate change is
00:56:36
just so high
00:56:38
that people just turn off their brains
00:56:40
or well like what is actually happening
00:56:42
here i think what's going on is you got
00:56:44
a bunch of technocratic bureaucrats in
00:56:46
brussels who don't know anything about
00:56:48
farming or these people who live in the
00:56:50
netherlands who've been doing this for
00:56:51
generations and they sit there in
00:56:53
brussels and they make up these
00:56:55
completely arbitrary
00:56:57
guidelines and requirements 50 by 2030
00:57:01
those are suspiciously round numbers
00:57:03
okay and then some other
00:57:05
you know authoritarian technocrat
00:57:08
in the netherlands then says well we got
00:57:09
to implement this and they pass some
00:57:11
crazy law and they don't even think
00:57:13
about the impact on these farmers why
00:57:15
because they're deplorables i mean it's
00:57:17
complete class bias it's just like the
00:57:19
canadian truckers they don't think about
00:57:21
these people they don't factor into
00:57:22
their equation they don't know how they
00:57:24
live
00:57:25
and so that's what's going on here and
00:57:27
so you've got this global elite of of
00:57:29
technocrats who are willing to use
00:57:30
authoritarian tactics they're
00:57:32
appropriating their farms they're taking
00:57:33
them away that's why they're up in arms
00:57:35
see the rest of it which you're not
00:57:36
saying it's not just technocrats it's
00:57:38
the actual globally writ large have
00:57:42
wrapped themselves around the
00:57:43
sustainability blanket and they believe
00:57:45
that that word justifies all kinds of
00:57:48
bad unscientific enumerate policies
00:57:51
right and by the way they're they've
00:57:53
just woken up on energy right they they
00:57:55
had just banned energy production in
00:57:57
europe they realized oh wait a second
00:57:58
this is making us dependent on russia
00:58:00
and authoritarians well what is the
00:58:02
other big export of ukraine it's food so
00:58:06
they got smart on energy and now they're
00:58:08
about to repeat their same dumb mistake
00:58:10
of basically prohibiting
00:58:12
this area where they have an enormous
00:58:14
natural advantage which is food
00:58:15
production so you know it's like they
00:58:18
just keep making the same mistake over
00:58:19
and over again and by the way let me ask
00:58:20
you a question by the way yeah look i'm
00:58:22
not going to question you on the science
00:58:24
freeberg but here's what i would say is
00:58:26
i think there's a tendency
00:58:28
on the part of these technocrats to
00:58:30
think that the science is a lot more
00:58:32
bulletproof than it actually is that is
00:58:34
certainly what we saw with covid is we
00:58:36
had these same sort of global elitists
00:58:39
these technocrats who claimed to be
00:58:40
health experts they made up all these
00:58:42
lockdown rules that we talked about the
00:58:44
beginning of the show
00:58:45
and what did they do
00:58:48
no this isn't speculative but but what
00:58:50
but i will i will they're willing to use
00:58:52
they're willing to use heavy-handed
00:58:53
authoritarian tactics and i just don't
00:58:55
believe that the science of this
00:58:57
especially this 50
00:58:59
by 2030 why is that the guideline who
00:59:02
can prove that those are the exact right
00:59:04
numbers and they're willing to use any
00:59:05
tactics necessary to to implement their
00:59:08
crazy rules let me ask you a question
00:59:09
sex let's assume that there's a
00:59:11
technology transition possible that
00:59:13
there are solutions that could be used i
00:59:15
highlighted a few of them they just cost
00:59:17
money they require some investment and
00:59:19
you know creating this distortion in the
00:59:21
market by saying you can't release 50 of
00:59:24
the ammonia that you've been releasing
00:59:25
forces a technological shift that
00:59:28
otherwise would have taken longer in the
00:59:30
market do you agree that there may be a
00:59:31
scenario here whereby you know
00:59:33
governments can and should intervene and
00:59:35
i'm not making the case personally i'm
00:59:36
just trying to you know highlight for
00:59:38
you that i think this is where folks are
00:59:39
coming from right but there are
00:59:40
alternative ways to make the dairy there
00:59:42
are alternative ways to feed the cows
00:59:44
they're all or um
00:59:47
here's where i think you're going with
00:59:48
that which could make sense which is
00:59:49
okay you're saying there is a pollution
00:59:51
externality here uh being created by the
00:59:53
farmers well we need to basically
00:59:55
internalize the externality we need to
00:59:57
capture the cost of that so what you
00:59:59
could do is gradually introduce some
01:00:00
sort of permit system
01:00:02
you know or a tradable permit system
01:00:04
right where
01:00:05
that would incentivize the creation of
01:00:07
these technologies that you're talking
01:00:08
about you want to do it gradually so you
01:00:09
don't destroy
01:00:10
the livelihoods of these farmers who've
01:00:12
been doing it for generations so that
01:00:14
would probably be the approach you'd
01:00:15
want to take i agree with you by the way
01:00:18
i think i think that is what is going to
01:00:19
happen around the world is that that
01:00:21
sort of cap and trade or taxation system
01:00:23
is going to get slowly rolled out for a
01:00:25
lot of these externality costs in
01:00:27
production and industry and agriculture
01:00:29
particularly because there are
01:00:30
technological alternatives and it will
01:00:32
incentivize the switch to those
01:00:34
alternatives because the alternatives
01:00:35
will cost less than the taxes saks based
01:00:38
on what you're saying is one of the
01:00:39
problems here that these technocrats
01:00:41
these professional politicians they
01:00:43
don't actually have great strategic
01:00:45
thoughtful
01:00:46
um you know real world experience to do
01:00:48
planning
01:00:50
you know looking at germany their
01:00:51
inability to see the writing on the wall
01:00:53
of what building a gas pipeline from
01:00:56
russia to germany and shutting down
01:00:57
nukes would do it just seems like over
01:00:59
and over they're just really bad
01:01:00
strategic thinkers combined with this
01:01:03
fight you're wrong
01:01:04
no jason they are influenced by these
01:01:07
cultural elites who they want to create
01:01:09
favorites group think it's a lot of
01:01:11
group thing going on
01:01:13
yeah behind the group think is a class
01:01:15
bias right they only associate with
01:01:17
other members of the professional class
01:01:19
who have you know basically graduate
01:01:21
degrees
01:01:22
they don't even interact with these
01:01:25
farmers just like the
01:01:26
just like the legislators making covid
01:01:28
rules the health experts never interact
01:01:31
with canadian truckers so there's a huge
01:01:33
amount of class prejudice saying that
01:01:35
these people just don't matter we can
01:01:37
force them to obey our rules and if they
01:01:40
don't like it we'll confiscate their
01:01:42
farms and by the way the rest of you
01:01:44
you're gonna have to learn to eat bugs
01:01:46
or tofu or
01:01:48
tempeh or recycled excrement or whatever
01:01:50
i was the desantis what was your
01:01:51
desantis was the desantis uh prosciutto
01:01:54
what did you have on there was it some
01:01:55
mozzarella
01:01:56
and a roast beef that's a beautiful
01:01:58
roast beef beautiful roast beef by
01:01:59
disaster
01:02:01
brought to you by dessert it's gonna
01:02:03
become a meme after this
01:02:04
episode i have prosciutto
01:02:06
is the best market campaign ever he's a
01:02:09
lock for president jacob i had
01:02:10
prosciutto cotto with brie white truffle
01:02:13
cream and lemon i mean did you have the
01:02:14
white truffle on it uh that's like a
01:02:16
plus what's that bro this is 80 euros no
01:02:18
it's like eight euros eight euros yes
01:02:20
bring something back bring some back uh
01:02:22
wait i wanna i wanna say something about
01:02:24
this i hope the democrats uh embrace
01:02:26
this agenda wholeheartedly because if we
01:02:28
get all the voters who wanna eat roast
01:02:30
beef i'm pretty sure that's the super
01:02:32
majority in this country the way to
01:02:34
solve this freeberg is with the right
01:02:36
economic incentives there's no reason
01:02:38
why the dutch government had to go and
01:02:40
basically put thousands of farmers out
01:02:42
of business instead what they could have
01:02:44
done is actually created the tax
01:02:46
incentive that allowed farmers to adopt
01:02:48
some of these bleeding edge technologies
01:02:50
when they were probably too expensive to
01:02:52
make it economically equivalent that i
01:02:54
mean by the way that is not a newfangled
01:02:57
idea this is not genius talk here so the
01:03:00
reason why they don't do the obvious
01:03:02
simple thing is class bias it is exactly
01:03:05
what david said it is the influence of
01:03:06
people who look hold on
01:03:08
who look down on these people
01:03:11
okay and who believe that they are
01:03:13
more virtuous because of their desire to
01:03:16
defend climate change there's also a
01:03:18
pragmatic piece of this this reminds me
01:03:20
of the cold debates we had there are 62
01:03:22
000
01:03:23
coal miners in this country like this is
01:03:25
a small number of people who are
01:03:26
impacted we could just
01:03:28
you know basically give them severance
01:03:30
or in a soft landing instead of the you
01:03:33
know this crazy or
01:03:34
or let them continue to do their job and
01:03:37
egress off naturally the economic free
01:03:39
market will manage it will manage it on
01:03:42
its own and instead what you could do is
01:03:44
actually green light nuclear subsidize
01:03:46
some of these more adventurous ways in
01:03:48
which you can extract and refine lng but
01:03:50
my point is this is where it's it's a
01:03:53
real head scratcher why politicians
01:03:54
don't do this and i think the only thing
01:03:56
that i can come up with is that they are
01:03:58
overly influenced by these cultural
01:04:01
elites with their perspectives i agree
01:04:03
that do
01:04:04
judge very harshly what they believe to
01:04:07
be right and what they believe to be
01:04:09
wrong can we take a victory lap here in
01:04:10
the united states that we're energy
01:04:12
independent
01:04:13
and that we're food independent can we
01:04:15
take that victory how much longer jason
01:04:17
no well i think we now need to think
01:04:19
instead of just being independent i
01:04:20
think our mission should be surplus
01:04:22
jason our president you know canceled
01:04:24
the keystone pipeline he cancelled a
01:04:26
bunch of exploration permits in the gulf
01:04:28
you know again it's we are one bad
01:04:30
winter away
01:04:32
from all of a sudden being in the same
01:04:34
situation as everybody else so it's not
01:04:36
as
01:04:36
solid one bad we're not one freeberg
01:04:38
where are we in terms of our
01:04:40
independence jkl we are the number one
01:04:42
ag exporter in the world and by the way
01:04:44
under under a different president just a
01:04:46
couple of years ago we were the number
01:04:47
one energy exporter in the world the
01:04:49
fact of the matter
01:04:50
when it comes to food and energy we have
01:04:53
the greatest natural resources and we
01:04:55
should be developing that we should be
01:04:57
moving but no sex my point is what if
01:04:59
the united states took a philosophy
01:05:02
of not just being an independent but
01:05:04
being even like a stronger surplus to
01:05:07
the point of like
01:05:09
building that up we are we're we're
01:05:11
working it out the market's working it
01:05:12
out and we're taking you know we're we
01:05:14
just need to feels like we could do
01:05:15
better it feels like we do i mean the
01:05:17
issue with nuclear power as you know is
01:05:20
the regulatory cost so you know it's 10
01:05:22
billion dollars and 30 years to get it
01:05:24
let's move to the lightning round
01:05:26
no i just want to show you guys the
01:05:27
monmouth pole which i think is worth
01:05:29
highlighting okay we didn't talk about
01:05:31
it but the monmouth pole that was
01:05:33
published a few days ago
01:05:35
which is the june 2022 poll the number
01:05:38
one concern that america the number one
01:05:39
thing americans are concerned about nick
01:05:41
you could put the chart the table in the
01:05:42
in the uh the show nuts 33 percent care
01:05:45
about inflation 20 15 care about gas
01:05:47
prices 9 care about the economy six
01:05:50
percent care about everyday bills and
01:05:51
groceries you know you add that up um
01:05:54
that's the vast majority of what people
01:05:56
are concerned about and all the way down
01:05:57
at the bottom of the table is climate
01:05:59
change at one percent yeah absolutely so
01:06:02
i think it just speaks to the point
01:06:04
about you know there there is and by the
01:06:07
way i'm not advocating that this is the
01:06:08
right position but i will say that there
01:06:11
is a huge distinction or discrepancy
01:06:13
between what the average american is
01:06:16
worried about and you know where
01:06:18
political leaders are
01:06:20
trying to carry us forward i'm not sure
01:06:22
what the right answer is but there's
01:06:24
definitely a disconnect and i think it's
01:06:26
being played out in this netherlands
01:06:27
situation right now one point for you on
01:06:28
that as well nick i put this article in
01:06:30
the
01:06:31
in the chat but the the top esg fund
01:06:34
manager in europe
01:06:35
um of the
01:06:37
of 2022 uh they released their um
01:06:41
results and the guy was up like uh
01:06:43
almost 16 percent um and he disclosed
01:06:46
what he owns and he turns out that he
01:06:48
owns conoco valero and exxon
01:06:52
and
01:06:53
according to the esg rules that these
01:06:56
folks have passed this qualifies as an
01:06:58
esg fund because he doesn't own weapons
01:07:00
porn and um
01:07:03
oil sense
01:07:05
but it allows all these people to walk
01:07:07
around thinking that their investments
01:07:08
are tied up and things that are actually
01:07:10
clean so it's not true so the point is
01:07:13
that there are there are these
01:07:14
structural lies that have been baked
01:07:16
into the system
01:07:17
um that they are supported by very
01:07:20
shoddy accounting or rules or science
01:07:23
and if we're really going to fix this
01:07:25
problem
01:07:26
i think you have to go and inspect these
01:07:27
things and call them out but like all of
01:07:29
this esg investing which perpetuates by
01:07:32
the way perhaps you know why these
01:07:35
governments just have no clue what's
01:07:36
going on
01:07:38
sit on top of all of these lies there's
01:07:40
nothing esg about conoco and exxon per
01:07:42
se that's ridiculous let's just call it
01:07:43
for what it is this guy's a good fund
01:07:45
manager it's a he's a good fund manager
01:07:47
he did well in a period where everybody
01:07:48
else was down let's just celebrate that
01:07:50
and not tell all these it had a good
01:07:52
marketing spin for a while so you know
01:07:54
no but it's not just marketing it allows
01:07:56
people to believe that there's a
01:07:57
solution that is being affected that is
01:07:59
not true that's the part about it that's
01:08:02
super nefarious yeah okay listen we
01:08:03
moved science up because science got a
01:08:05
short shrift last week what is a
01:08:07
lightning round what is that
01:08:09
i just wanted to things that were small
01:08:11
that weren't like full segments i my
01:08:13
concept here was to just put things at
01:08:15
the end of the show that we missed but
01:08:16
what i did was give you a shout out
01:08:18
you're doing a great job moderating
01:08:19
today by the way thank you put a couple
01:08:21
extra hours in by the way i think
01:08:22
freeberg made a really interesting point
01:08:24
a minute ago about me being a great
01:08:25
moderator no not that okay um
01:08:28
about the um
01:08:30
about the polling the monmouth polling
01:08:32
where if you look at what voters care
01:08:34
about and what the elites and the
01:08:37
elected politicians care about there's a
01:08:38
huge divergence huge that's clearly what
01:08:40
happened
01:08:41
in holland right you got these dutch
01:08:43
farmers their livelihoods are being
01:08:44
taken away by people in brussels who
01:08:46
don't even understand what they do i
01:08:48
mean people want to make a living
01:08:50
yeah pretty
01:08:51
but but this is why you're seeing
01:08:53
populist nationalist uprisings in all
01:08:55
these countries is you've got a crowd of
01:08:57
people who go to davos and make policy
01:08:59
and they're completely disconnected
01:09:01
they're completely disconnected from the
01:09:02
real concern look at pojo electorate
01:09:04
bojo just got booted today why
01:09:07
ultimately at the root causes he was
01:09:09
throwing covet parties when he was
01:09:10
telling the same thing that everybody
01:09:12
nailed gavin newsom for
01:09:14
this guy just got booted out as prime
01:09:15
minister they're better than the united
01:09:17
states they're hypocrites and they're
01:09:18
incompetent at their jobs let's call it
01:09:19
what it is the association is you try
01:09:21
and do what you believe to be best for
01:09:23
everyone but it's not it's not what's
01:09:25
best for you
01:09:26
you know and i think that that's the
01:09:28
point like climate fixing climate change
01:09:30
stopping kovid i gotta do x y and z for
01:09:33
everyone but i still want to fly in a
01:09:34
private jet and i still want to go to a
01:09:35
covet party you know to a dinner party
01:09:37
exactly like super spread um this is why
01:09:39
i think biden is very unpopular i mean
01:09:41
look he's at hold on hold on let me
01:09:42
cheat out for you hold on let me see
01:09:43
here okay so we are going to tear up
01:09:46
okay
01:10:00
i have a good joke just let me do it all
01:10:02
right so all of the free berks stands
01:10:04
were breaking my chops that chamoth was
01:10:06
cackling and laughing during a science
01:10:08
segment and we rushed him so i moved
01:10:09
sides up so to the freedberg stands
01:10:12
please stand down now we go to biden
01:10:15
arrangement syndrome segment at the end
01:10:16
of the show joe biden's cognitive
01:10:18
decline is becoming the topic sacks have
01:10:21
at it well listen if if you call this uh
01:10:25
bind arrangement syndrome 62 percent of
01:10:27
the country has biden arrangements
01:10:28
because it's like we all did for uh
01:10:30
trump violence poll numbers are down to
01:10:31
something like 38 it's historic low for
01:10:34
this point in time of a presidency but
01:10:36
look the point i was trying to make was
01:10:38
i think that biden's problems flow from
01:10:41
this dynamic we're talking about which
01:10:42
is he campaigned as scranton joe he was
01:10:46
a working class hero who is going to
01:10:48
give us a return to normalcy and what
01:10:51
has he done he's basically implemented
01:10:53
every wacky idea of the progressive left
01:10:55
he basically is representing that part
01:10:58
of the party
01:10:59
that is completely disconnected from the
01:11:01
ordinary desires of the working class
01:11:04
and what are people concerned about
01:11:05
right now food and energy prices what is
01:11:08
biden concerned well first of all he's
01:11:09
blaming it on mom and pop gas stations
01:11:11
even
01:11:12
even jeff bezos had to that's what was
01:11:15
insane yeah so just to queue up the
01:11:16
tweet my message is biden suite my
01:11:18
message to the companies running gas
01:11:19
stations and selling
01:11:21
and setting prices at the pump is simple
01:11:24
this is a time of war and global apparel
01:11:26
bring down the price price you are
01:11:28
charging at the pump to reflect the cost
01:11:30
you're paying for the product and do it
01:11:32
now and then almost all small business
01:11:34
franchises which is absurd and that's
01:11:37
just not how the economy works do you
01:11:38
think that they look at a chevron and
01:11:40
think it's owned by chevron or they
01:11:42
cannot be who's tweeting for what some
01:11:44
some millennial some millennial with a
01:11:46
couple of master's degrees
01:11:48
and 400 000 if that is rage tweeting
01:11:51
from the strategy to make him look
01:11:52
incompetent i mean i am forever thankful
01:11:54
for joe biden to getting trump out
01:11:56
before he took a third or fourth it
01:11:57
would take an eight-second google search
01:12:00
to know that less than ten percent of
01:12:02
the gas stations in america are owned by
01:12:04
these corporates well here's basis these
01:12:06
are mom-and-pop businesses this is
01:12:08
insanity a lot of immigrants it's a lot
01:12:10
of south asians this is why it's very
01:12:12
sensitive to me these gas stations they
01:12:13
are mom and pop owned a lot of them are
01:12:15
owned by immigrants and this is their
01:12:16
small very strengths of the american
01:12:18
dream and biden comes along and he's
01:12:20
saying you're doing too well i mean
01:12:22
these people their profit margins like
01:12:23
two percent two percent two percent
01:12:25
nothing my buddy's family by the way
01:12:27
owns a bunch of gas stations in the bay
01:12:28
area and he told me they make no money
01:12:30
on gas they make all their money selling
01:12:32
cigarettes and soda that's it that's the
01:12:34
whole business
01:12:35
yeah it's a way to get people into a
01:12:36
convenience store here's my thought i
01:12:38
think i'm going to state it right here
01:12:40
bezos is going to run for president in
01:12:42
2024. this is why he retired what this
01:12:44
is why he's giving money away i will bet
01:12:46
anything against them okay
01:12:55
he's playing legacy games no why else
01:12:57
would he become a [ __ ] poster on twitter
01:13:00
ouch inflation is far too that wasn't
01:13:02
even a [ __ ] post well anyway he's he's
01:13:04
basically he doesn't have to run a
01:13:05
company anymore
01:13:06
he's bezos after dark that wasn't even a
01:13:08
[ __ ] post that was kind of like he was
01:13:10
outraged by the financial illiteracy
01:13:13
this year
01:13:14
stupidity
01:13:16
and the economics
01:13:20
take on the president there's no upside
01:13:21
there he's not starting a fight
01:13:23
jacob it's just calling out something
01:13:25
that on its face that tweet it was not
01:13:28
written by joe biden so let's not pin
01:13:29
the blame on him but that office and
01:13:31
that strategy is clearly broken because
01:13:34
it is run by someone at a minimum who's
01:13:36
enumerate
01:13:37
and who's clearly financially illiterate
01:13:39
who doesn't know how to google anything
01:13:41
because that's the only way you could
01:13:42
write something that insipid biden
01:13:45
should fire whoever it is that wrote
01:13:46
that 100 biden is looking for scapegoats
01:13:49
okay his popularity is at historic lows
01:13:52
the right track wrong track numbers are
01:13:54
at historic lows he's looking for anyone
01:13:56
to blame and he's been going through a
01:13:57
whole sequence and the the putin price
01:13:59
hike wasn't working he couldn't even say
01:14:01
it right so now they're looking for
01:14:03
anyone else remember elizabeth warren
01:14:05
did something similar when they had um
01:14:07
food inflation they started blaming the
01:14:08
meat the meat packing industry or
01:14:10
whatever look this is not how these
01:14:12
industries work but they are looking for
01:14:14
someone to blame for their own
01:14:15
mismanagement of the economy and biden
01:14:18
baked this cake last year we've
01:14:20
discussed this before he canceled energy
01:14:22
independence his first day in office and
01:14:25
then moreover look on this ukraine
01:14:27
situation if you knew you were going to
01:14:29
take this tough putin approach jason
01:14:31
that i know you support okay but if you
01:14:33
knew a proxy war was coming or you're
01:14:35
willing to let one happen you would want
01:14:36
to basically create an energy glut not
01:14:38
an energy shortage you'd want to
01:14:40
basically maximize the amount of
01:14:42
american production and you would not
01:14:44
want to alienate the saudis so what is
01:14:45
biden doing now he's going over saudi
01:14:47
arabia had in hand totally humiliating
01:14:50
to beg for forgiveness for last year
01:14:52
ostracizing them and calling them
01:14:54
pariahs
01:14:55
so
01:14:56
no hold on a second they had no
01:14:58
grand strategy if they wanted to pursue
01:15:02
a tough on russia strategy they should
01:15:04
have maximized energy production instead
01:15:06
they didn't even think about it they
01:15:07
didn't even think about it energy
01:15:10
inflation
01:15:11
i agree with you there it also i will
01:15:13
say is notable i think the democrats are
01:15:16
actually
01:15:17
now um
01:15:19
i think they're quietly pushing the joe
01:15:22
biden cognitive decline so that they can
01:15:24
put it they can feel it what do you mean
01:15:26
quietly how do you allow a governor a
01:15:28
sitting governor to run ads in a
01:15:31
different state against the the presumed
01:15:34
uh republican nominee unless it's
01:15:36
ordained
01:15:38
well i'm saying the cognitive decline
01:15:40
being i think they're obviously not
01:15:41
going to come out jason i don't think
01:15:43
this is happening surreptitiously
01:15:45
okay here's the tweet from bezos just so
01:15:48
people hear it ouch inflation is far too
01:15:50
important a problem for the white house
01:15:52
to keep making statements like this it's
01:15:54
either straight ahead misdirection or a
01:15:56
deep misunderstanding of basic market
01:15:59
dynamics this is a very strong statement
01:16:02
and the point i was trying to make
01:16:03
before
01:16:04
is
01:16:05
why would bezos why would bezos at this
01:16:09
time why
01:16:10
would he
01:16:12
take on the administration i think it's
01:16:14
important for biden to take control of
01:16:16
his communication strategy and to
01:16:18
reclaim more of the center going into
01:16:20
the midterms i think a lot of this
01:16:22
content
01:16:23
the naming the shaming the blaming
01:16:26
tends to be more of the playbook from
01:16:28
the far progressive left and i think
01:16:31
that there's probably too many people
01:16:32
that have infiltrated the white house
01:16:34
from those ranks and i think he needs to
01:16:36
close ranks a little bit more and so
01:16:38
uh i don't think he wrote this okay and
01:16:40
i don't think he would have wrote it if
01:16:42
he was given a chance so it's clearly
01:16:45
something is breaking between what is
01:16:48
being discussed as a team and then what
01:16:49
is being executed on the ground
01:16:51
sex look
01:16:53
biden's staff the ron claims been with
01:16:55
him for years they reflect his desires i
01:16:58
think this is classic biden if you look
01:17:00
at his career in the senate he's a
01:17:02
grandstander he always like to basically
01:17:04
scapegoat and demonize this is this is a
01:17:06
playbook he may not have written the
01:17:07
tweet but he certainly endorsed it and
01:17:09
he's given speeches now where he's
01:17:11
calling out this scapegoat and that
01:17:12
scapegoat for basically the energy
01:17:14
prices which are totally his fault he
01:17:15
could have had a better strategy around
01:17:17
that santa's versus bezos you heard of
01:17:18
your horse on the bezos thing hold on a
01:17:21
second jason you're not taking into
01:17:22
account this is actually the second time
01:17:24
that bezos has tweeted about inflation
01:17:26
so i'm taking this into account yeah
01:17:28
okay that was back in may he called out
01:17:29
the administration so yes it's on this
01:17:31
particular issue
01:17:33
i think he feels strongly about this
01:17:35
issue and i think he's looking at what
01:17:37
the administration is doing into saying
01:17:39
this is a level of political stupidity
01:17:42
and financial illiteracy that i just
01:17:44
cannot stand
01:17:45
and by the way who is jeff bezos bezos
01:17:47
is a very liberal guy he's an outspoken
01:17:49
critic of trump and he owns a very
01:17:51
liberal media house at the washington
01:17:53
post so i think this is a reflection
01:17:55
that biden has even lost
01:17:57
the jeff bezos of the world and he's
01:17:59
trying to spend it as a good thing as if
01:18:00
we don't need these billionaires but if
01:18:03
you're losing jeff bezos you're losing a
01:18:04
lot of people in the center probably the
01:18:06
entire follow the breadcrumbs he bought
01:18:08
the washington post he bought the
01:18:10
largest house in dc and now he's taking
01:18:13
on the administration i think it's a
01:18:14
clear path that he wants to run
01:18:18
you can you can you can mention me on
01:18:19
twitter if you disagree i'll tell you a
01:18:20
funny story to end
01:18:22
uh after after the sale of the warriors
01:18:25
completed and i tweeted this thing out
01:18:27
uh it was really beautiful
01:18:29
uh dre sent a beautiful text to me um
01:18:32
so did david lee
01:18:34
and then i got one text message from
01:18:36
phil hellmuth saying i dispute how much
01:18:39
credit you've given me i expected more
01:18:42
wow
01:18:43
he so seven seconds to fill again it
01:18:46
only took seven seconds and then he
01:18:48
called and then he called i showed i
01:18:50
showed sax the text right it's it's an
01:18:52
unbelievable text sax can sacks can
01:18:54
testify to it and then he's like lost
01:18:56
his mind again he lost his mind he said
01:18:58
basically like you know he he he took
01:19:00
the credit that i gave him want to throw
01:19:01
out the window he thought i really tried
01:19:02
to [ __ ] him over and then he said i i'm
01:19:05
gonna block you for a week but then
01:19:07
change his mind
01:19:09
just tell him you'll buy him into the to
01:19:11
the big game or something and he'll be
01:19:13
fine no he didn't tax money he just
01:19:15
wanted more credit more credit but you
01:19:16
want more tell him you'll stake him
01:19:19
because he did he did introduce you to
01:19:21
the deal correctly
01:19:25
is it true
01:19:26
is it true that he is that phil hellmuth
01:19:29
introduced you to the deal
01:19:30
yes or no
01:19:33
he introduced me to joe lacombe got it
01:19:35
so if if not for phil you probably would
01:19:37
not have made that trade
01:19:39
um i don't know it's not clear because
01:19:41
they had maybe they had no they had
01:19:43
bankers and i was you know i was using
01:19:44
allen and company so i mean
01:19:47
there's not a lot of people running
01:19:48
around in that moment trying to write to
01:19:49
ten percent
01:19:50
does he deserve any credit for you
01:19:53
buying your stake in the warriors in
01:19:54
fact and i thought i gave him an
01:19:55
appropriate amount of credit yeah
01:19:57
jeremiah tweet stormed it was like it
01:19:59
was phil peter teal and like one other
01:20:02
oh and then jacob jacob yeah and it's
01:20:04
like better company he couldn't find
01:20:06
himself in like it's the best he's ever
01:20:08
been except when he was with michael
01:20:09
jordan and jay-z but other than that
01:20:12
this was the best phil's ever done i
01:20:13
mean you know when i get did you see he
01:20:15
made it to the second when i get my
01:20:17
fourth ring i'm going to take a picture
01:20:18
like michael with the four rings but
01:20:21
but jamal in the interest of piece maybe
01:20:22
you should just thank uh phil right now
01:20:25
oh i have a great idea to tell chill
01:20:27
free look at free bricks laughing he's
01:20:28
the only one that got that joke did you
01:20:30
get that joke i was wondering if i
01:20:31
should tell you to cut it or not i don't
01:20:32
know i think it's good
01:20:34
here's a great one you know how don't
01:20:35
cut that part i think it's a funny joke
01:20:37
you know how phil gives his bracelets
01:20:38
away
01:20:39
uh as like a recognition
01:20:42
you don't have to do this but pretend
01:20:44
that you're giving since you have four
01:20:45
rings that you wanted to thank the other
01:20:47
three bessies on the show and that
01:20:49
you're keeping one ring for yourself oh
01:20:50
my god giving us the other three rings
01:20:52
oh my god thank you for all the support
01:20:54
we've given you all the support for the
01:20:56
warriors yeah for the warriors that we
01:20:57
gave you and all the council we gave you
01:20:59
over the years this will put him on me
01:21:01
super chilly
01:21:03
one of the four rings
01:21:05
super tough it's the greatest april
01:21:07
actually that reminds me phil's next
01:21:08
ring is going to me so i can't say
01:21:10
anything critical
01:21:11
bracelet yeah the next bracelet's going
01:21:13
to me so i gotta i can't say anything
01:21:14
critical you know what you're going to
01:21:15
do
01:21:17
whatever i said that was critical i
01:21:18
guarantee you takes the bracelet
01:21:21
and loses it in the first three days and
01:21:24
never wears it it doesn't care
01:21:26
right in the garbage care never talks
01:21:27
about it again all right everybody we're
01:21:29
back the team is playing professional
01:21:32
crisp ball again point guard is back
01:21:35
we'll see you on episode 87 we're gonna
01:21:37
make it to a hundred i feel like we can
01:21:39
make it to a hundred bucks yes we're
01:21:40
going to make it that the vibe is back
01:21:42
the vibe i love you guys this show in
01:21:44
the text but it's great here i got to
01:21:46
say i love i love hanging i love hanging
01:21:48
out with saxypoot like live and physical
01:21:51
he's a [ __ ] little he's very you just
01:21:53
want to take him yeah
01:21:54
he's
01:22:00
he's an [ __ ] last time i hung out
01:22:02
live with him he had an iv hooked up and
01:22:04
he was recovering from the night before
01:22:06
snacks on an iv basically on an iv now
01:22:08
that's how bad it's gotten for him
01:22:10
zach you look terrible can you please
01:22:12
get some sun and just maybe eat one less
01:22:15
sandwich
01:22:17
he's losing weight he looks good
01:22:19
i had two
01:22:21
no but you could afford to you're in
01:22:22
great shape i mean sacks maybe a half of
01:22:24
desantis maybe you should have a half of
01:22:26
desantis i think i'm gonna put you on
01:22:27
half the centers we'll see you all next
01:22:29
time on the all in love you guys bye bye
01:22:31
bye
01:22:32
bye
01:22:44
and they've just gone crazy with it
01:23:18
get mercies
