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All right, everybody. Welcome back to
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the number one podcast in the world.
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It's the all-in podcast. David Saxs
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couldn't make it this week, but we have
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the trio. David Freeberg is here, your
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Sultan of Science, Jim Polatia. SpaceX
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filed confidentially to go public on
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April 1st, targeting a 1.75
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trillion with the T valuation. When
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SpaceX goes public, if it's at that $
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1.75 uh trillion dollar valuation, so
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weird to say trillion dollar valuation
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for an IPO, uh they would be the eighth
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largest company in the world, right
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behind TSMC and Saudi Aramco. They're
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both worth $1.7. Uh at the taping of
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this podcast, Tesla is number 10 with
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$1.37 trillion valuation. Hey, if you
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were to combine those two, as many
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people are speculating, will happen at
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some point and you can buy the stock
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ticker E, that would be a $3.1 trillion
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company, and that would make them the
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fourth largest company ahead of
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Microsoft. They're aiming to raise
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Chomoth 75 billion, which would be the
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by far the biggest raise ever in an IPO.
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Uh, expected to go out in June. I think
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they were trying to hit the 420 date
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because that would have been even more
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hilarious, but uh they're not going to
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be able to do that.
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SpaceX uh recently acquired X.AI for 250
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billion. That includes X and Twitter and
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the XAI large language model AI company
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Starlink, generating between 50 and 80%
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of SpaceX's revenue. We'll have all
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those details shortly. Um and it'll be
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close to $20 billion a year according to
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reports. Launch of rockets is the other
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40% of the business, 5 billion in 2024
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according to reports. Total revenue 2025
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15 to6 billion with 8 billion in profit
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according to Reuters. So let's stop
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there uh and we're going to talk about
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all the other IPOs that could be coming.
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Uh Chamal,
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I think people really want to know and
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you may have mentioned this on an
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earlier episode. What are the chances
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that Tesla after if this IPO goes well
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that Tesla and SpaceX could wind up
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being the same company? We saw they're
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collaborating
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>> on a fab 100% is what you're putting it
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on.
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>> Okay.
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>> Okay. Sorry. Let me let me be clear.
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99.999%.
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>> Okay. What will that mean when if those
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two companies or when those two
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companies merge? One of the great things
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that happened in my career was there was
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a point where you know how like you
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grind at a level and then you know you
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just get exposed to things at a
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different level and then you grind for
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years and you get exposed to things at
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yet another level. In one of those
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steps, I was very fortunate to be
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introduced by Thomas Lefant actually to
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the head of Wtel Lipton.
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>> This is a law firm
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>> law firm and his name is Ed Hurley
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and he said this is the most important
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well-known well-run powerful law firm in
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America. Then I looked at the
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transactions and they're just in the
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middle of everything. And now, you know,
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my lawyer, Raj Narian, who does
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everything for me, one of the senior
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partners at Wakdal, I can attest are
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incredible. And they said to me in the
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middle of all of this
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stuff when I was doing a bunch of deals,
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they said, "Just get ready to pay a
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tax." And I said, "What does that mean?"
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They said the way that the American
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capital markets are set up is both that
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you can be incredibly creative and do
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incredible things, but and we talked
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about this a little bit last week,
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there's a bunch of tort that allows
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folks to hang around the hoop and get
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paid no matter what. You see this in all
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IPOs. Shareholder lawsuits abound and
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they try to create a class out of it.
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And the reason they do that is that
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there's DNO insurance that then will pay
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out some number of millions of dollars.
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The attorneys take 40 or 50% and then
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these plaintiffs get a few bucks. You
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saw how egregious this tort manipulation
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was when this guy with 10 shares sued
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Elon's comp package at Tesla and won.
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And what was that really? That was the
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trial lawyers trying to get paid
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hundreds of millions of dollars by
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exploiting a scene. Call it what
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>> it was a shakeddown. Why am I bringing
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this up? If you take the the Raj and Ed
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example of this, this SpaceX IPO is
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going to set up a couple of things. The
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first is there's going to be the natural
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noise in the market and Elon will have
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to sort through all of the little ticky
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tacky things. But the most important
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positive thing that will happen from the
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IPO is a validated external marktomarket
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valuation of SpaceX.
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and the market every day in real time
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gives you a valid marktomarket
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assessment of the value of Tesla. And
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this allows you to put these two things
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together to minimize these losses.
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>> And I think that that's what Elon really
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needs. It'll make his life tremendously
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simpler from a governance perspective.
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It'll make the companies and this
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quibbling about his time a non-issue
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because again nobody talks about Zuck or
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Satya or Sundar
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or Jensen allocating time across various
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projects inside of Meta or Google or
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Microsoft or Nvidia. nor should they
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really make this claim from Elon because
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as you're seeing there's actually an
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enormous overlap and commonality to the
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various things that he is doing. He's
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building the robots but they're used
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inside of SpaceX. He's building a
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terrafab they're used inside of Tesla.
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He's building XAI they're used across
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both. So I think we need to do this.
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It'll minimize the shareholder noise
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because it'll give less room to somebody
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that says, "Hey, he set evaluation out
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of thin air." Well,
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>> but dollars to donuts, these things are
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going to merge
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>> and it speaks to the singularity that's
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going on right now.
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>> You know, you had a car company, you had
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a space company. Okay, that was a pretty
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How do those two things overlap? And
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it's like AI data centers in space.
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Where do you get chips from? and then
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actually going to raw materials inside
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of one factory going out the other and
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having discussed it with Elon many times
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when he learned you know at Tesla or
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SpaceX about advanced materials informed
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different products at the different
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companies and now you just you'll have
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all of that in one place and then you
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think about the brain trust that he
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built at those two companies plus boring
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company plus Neuralink if they're all in
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there all this cross-disciplinary
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learning is going to compound and
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compound and compound. Elon knows more
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about factories than probably
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>> anybody
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>> anybody like some people in China who
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have you know
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>> Foxcon knows a lot about factories you
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know so there are some people who know
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as much or or probably even a little bit
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more about some aspects of it but that's
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a true advantage of bringing those two
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teams together and you saw it people
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would go from one company to the other
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Freeberg my question for you very
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acutely with your NASA hat and uh you
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know your your background today is
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20 years ago He he started trying to get
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to space with SpaceX and here we go.
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There's more rockets going off in a
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month now than there are days in the
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month for for the entire country and
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he's got rockets going up every 2 or 3
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days. You can just basically hop on a
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SpaceX flight and get to space. Maybe
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you could just use your vision there to
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tell the audience what could things look
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like in another 20 years if SpaceX
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continues at this cadence or even, you
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know, goes faster because of AI. Well,
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this week's a pretty important milestone
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for that point because we just launched
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Artemis 2 yesterday, which is man's
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returning to the moon. So, the United
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States shipped this rocket with four
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astronauts on board. They're going to do
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an orbit around the Earth, head to the
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moon, come back around, and come back to
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Earth in anticipation of landing on the
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moon in about 2 years.
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And getting to the moon, I think, is
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going to be very important. Not just
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because there's this important social
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milestone and race happening on right
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now with China, but I think the moon
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could end up being kind of the next
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industrial frontier for humanity. And
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the reason is if you can get to the
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moon, the moon has an extraordinary
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abundance of material that we can mine,
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process, and manufacture into goods. And
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ultimately the cost to ship those goods
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back to the earth is zero. It will cost
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less to move goods, manufactured goods,
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processed ore, uh, precious metals from
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the moon to a specific point on Earth.
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It will cost less to do that than to
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ship it using any other terrestrial
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conventional method, whether that's a
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boat, an airplane, or a railroad. And
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the reason is that on the moon, you can
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take advantage of the low gravity. It's
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about 16 the gravity and the complete
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lack of an atmosphere, meaning that it's
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frictionless to move material off of the
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moon and very low energy to move it off
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of the moon. You do not need to use a
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rocket propellant with high energy like
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we have to do to move things off of the
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Earth. In fact, the design for moving
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material off of the moon is to use
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what's called a mass driver, which is
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like a a train track, like a rail, like
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an electric rail. You kind of see these
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in, you know, high-speed trains that
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work on kind of magnetic levitation. And
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you could put a package on that rail and
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use electricity to accelerate that
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package to 100 g force, shoot it back to
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the Earth, or theoretically shoot it to
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Mars, and it will go to the exact point
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on the Earth you want it to go to,
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re-enters the atmosphere, and lands with
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a a simple parachute where you want it
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to go. So we could run continuous
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mining, continuous manufacturing
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processes on the moon at a fraction of
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the cost of what it would take to do it
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here on Earth. The biggest limiting
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factor getting people to the moon. And
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that is largely solved or will be solved
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in the next few years by robotics. So I
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think that there's this pretty profound
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intersection with what's going on in
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robotics with this moment for space
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industrialization and moving to the
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moon. So, you know, Tesla, I think 20
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years from now is actually a more
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interesting story, whether they're the
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same independent company or the same
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company. I think we're going to look
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back one day and have this kind of
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laughing observation that Tesla started
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out as an electric car company.
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>> 100% ended up becoming an autonomous car
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company. And the autonomous competency
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is what led to the robotics revolution.
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and the robotics revolution. Even if the
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socialists ban robotics on Earth and
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tell us no robots allowed, they're
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taking all the jobs, you could ship all
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those robots to the moon and they could
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get to work and create an entirely new
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manufacturing frontier for our
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civilization, for humanity. That
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frontier can manufacture precious metals
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and other goods and ship them back. You
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could manufacture semiconductors on the
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moon. All that's missing is the robots.
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So moving the robots to the moon or
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setting up the materials for robots to
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build themselves on the moon is kind of
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the first phase of this transition, you
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know, asking about 20 years from now.
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And then the next phase is building this
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all out. So look, I mean, I think that
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this may not be and it certainly won't
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be limited to just SpaceX. But SpaceX is
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demonstrating its capacity at being
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effectively the railroads. You know,
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what the railroads were to the west and
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to the frontier in the west, you know,
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in the last generation. SpaceX will be
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to the moon and ultimately to Mars. And
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there's going to be an extraordinary
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abundance of production that's going to
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come out of the moon. The moon has
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everything by the way and I'll say one
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more thing about SpaceX. SpaceX has also
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created and this is going to be a big
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part of the valuation analysis that many
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are doing. They've created a backup to
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the internet. You know the internet is
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fundamentally limited by all of the
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nodes on the network and the
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connectivity amongst all those nodes.
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And that connectivity is largely driven
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by copper and fiber optic cable. So in
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space with the number of satellites
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going up with Starlink and to actually
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deploy data centers that can output data
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on those nodes on that network, SpaceX
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has largely built a backup internet. And
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that backup internet can coincide with
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the Earth's internet, but it creates
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this extraterrestrial communication
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network that gives us theoretically the
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ability to think about, hey, if
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governments collapse, if there's
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civilizational upheaval, etc., etc.,
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etc., this becomes, I think, a
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fundamentally kind of important
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technology infrastructure that's going
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to exist in parallel. So, I'm pretty
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excited about like these two separate
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paths for SpaceX and where they
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intersect with Tesla, I think, is pretty
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profound at the moment.
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>> Yeah. And it can't be understated what
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lowering the cost per kilogram to get to
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space has done to entrepreneurs around
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the company. There's multiple
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entrepreneurs who are now doing asteroid
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mining or VA doing experimentation in
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space and I have a I've been doing some
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latestage stuff with my syndicate and
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one of the interesting companies we
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syndicated
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we we did zipline which is a great
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company but we also did this company
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called VAS vast space uh Jed is the
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founder he he created uh Ripple and uh
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and and some other crypto projects and
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he put a lot of his money hundreds of
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millions of dollars into this company
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vast case and they're designing a space
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station. How did they do it? Well, they
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just bought carriage on SpaceX rockets
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and they paid in advance. They have
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their slot and now they're doing this
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massive innovation to make modular space
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station components.
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>> Here's what I'll
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>> And the thesis is, hey, what if Google
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or Amazon want to have a space station
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in space? You know, it's completely
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possible they may want that.
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>> Here's what I'll say. I think
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>> sometimes it's better to be lucky than
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good. There are all of these ways that
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so many people will end up with
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participation into SpaceX. I think we
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all owe Elon an enormous thanks. I think
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that this is going to unleash just an
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unbelievably large economy of things
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that we have no idea about. And when I
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see this thing, that video that you just
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showed, what it reminds me is that we
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have an very rudimentary capability in
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space. What does that mean? If you take,
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if you catch a ride on Falcon 9 or
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Falcon Heavy, basically it's dropping
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you off at 550 km. I think you have a
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different problem if you're trying to
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get to geo. But even if you get dropped
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off at 500 or 550, how do you get to
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your actual orbital plane? Right? So
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meaning if you think of Elon as like the
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big container ships that go from China
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to America once it gets to Long Beach,
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you need FedEx. There's an entire
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infrastructure there that's going to get
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all of this logistics built last mile.
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There's a huge garbage collection
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problem that's getting built up. We
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still haven't technically solved how to
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do garbage collection in space. There's
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nets, there's magnetic plates. All of
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that is getting fixed. Then there's
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going to be an explosion in actual power
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generation. The cell composition of
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solar cells up in space are materially
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different. It's a really incredible
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thing. You look at these thin sheets,
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they are like one millimeter thick. You
00:14:55
if you carried it on your hand, the
00:14:57
glass breaks, yet you can smash a meteor
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into it when it's laid and laminated and
00:15:01
nothing happens. It's like the It's like
00:15:04
So my point is in every single dimension
00:15:07
of what the earthly economy looks like,
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it's now going to go and get rebuilt in
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space. There will be a FedEx of space.
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There'll be a MK of space. There'll be a
00:15:20
I don't know what the garbage collection
00:15:21
companies are. Allied Waste of Space.
00:15:23
There's going to be everything of space
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that exists in the United States.
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Freeberg just talked about the Freeport
00:15:30
Macaran of space. Like everything
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>> and that we owe to him.
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>> Yeah. And I hope he gets that credit
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because the amount of businesses I think
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that can get created and the amount of
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value that will be created on top of
00:15:45
SpaceX's shoulders is vast. It's the
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beginning of the beginning of the
00:15:50
beginning and it's going to create
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enormous opportunities for people who
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are smart and resourceful.
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>> And Freeberg, maybe you could comment on
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the PGMs, the palladium that's on
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asteroids and just how they're rare here
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on Earth. If we had an unlimited supply
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or a continuous supply of those
00:16:10
minerals, you know, what what could the
00:16:12
downstream effect of that be? And then
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what if we find things in space that we
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are unaware of? There are unknown
00:16:18
unknowns. Correct, Freeberg, when you
00:16:20
start to conceptualize this. I do think
00:16:22
like the asteroid mining is an
00:16:23
interesting concept but I do think it's
00:16:25
going to be more likely that we'll have
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the need for infrastructure so we can
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produce ores and refine and so on versus
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you know bringing chunky rock back. I
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think that you could do this very
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effectively on the moon. The primary
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elements that are missing from the moon
00:16:40
that we have on the earth are you know
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carbon,
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nitrogen, hydrogen and oxygen. basically
00:16:47
these things that make life on Earth.
00:16:49
But that's because they primarily exist
00:16:52
in a gaseous form and the Earth has
00:16:54
enough gravity to retain those gases and
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have an atmosphere. The moon is too
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small to maintain an atmosphere. The
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gravity is too little. So those gases
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all kind of went away. They evaporated
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away in the early formation of the Earth
00:17:07
and the Moon. But on the moon, there's
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everything else. There's aluminum,
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there's silicon, there's palladium,
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there's platinum, there's gold, there's
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everything you possibly need. So, I
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think as we do the calculus on all of
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this, we'll end up realizing that the
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moon is probably the best frontier. One
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of the biggest issues is dissipating
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heat because you don't have an
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atmosphere. But theoretically, you could
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recapture that heat and use like helium
00:17:29
gas or something to turn a turbine and
00:17:31
actually run production of even more
00:17:33
electricity. You just put a couple solar
00:17:35
panels out. I did the math on this. It's
00:17:36
like 500 square meters of solar panels
00:17:38
will let you run a 4 km mass driver to
00:17:42
ship material back to the earth every 10
00:17:43
to 15 minutes. One ton of material every
00:17:46
10 to 15 minutes
00:17:46
>> on the sled you described earlier that
00:17:48
Elon's been talking about as well. Yeah.
00:17:50
>> So you could think about having
00:17:51
autonomous mining vehicles deployed on
00:17:53
the moon processing the ore and then
00:17:56
sending completely processed material
00:17:58
back. And then for a heat shield for
00:17:59
re-entry to the earth you just use moon
00:18:01
rock. You only need about 15 cm of moon
00:18:04
rock at the front of the package and
00:18:06
then that'll burn up when it re-enters
00:18:07
the atmosphere and the package, you
00:18:09
know, kind of parachutes down and lands
00:18:11
where you want it to land in your
00:18:12
industrial shipyard or whatever. So
00:18:14
there's just like, you know, I think
00:18:15
we'll we'll continue to kind of iterate
00:18:17
on this. I'm speculating in a bunch of
00:18:18
different ways.
00:18:19
>> The beginning the beginning of the
00:18:20
beginning gosh I mean can you imagine
00:18:22
having a moon base in America
00:18:24
>> going like like Yeah. Well, imagine
00:18:26
Jacob like permanently present on the
00:18:28
moon is just and factories on the moon
00:18:30
is just wild to consider.
00:18:32
>> Can you guys just imagine like the
00:18:34
middle or the early 19th century like
00:18:36
the late 1700s, early 1800s in America
00:18:39
and there's like all this land out on
00:18:41
the west and like whatever people were
00:18:44
contemplating in that moment about what
00:18:46
they were going to go do with that land
00:18:47
on the west and they started to travel
00:18:48
west their minds would have been blown
00:18:51
to see what happened 100 years later or
00:18:53
now 150 years later. You know, like it's
00:18:55
just that's the moment that we're at
00:18:57
right now. And the railroads are being
00:18:58
built to get us to this next great
00:19:00
frontier. They're being laid out before
00:19:02
us. And the opportunity is really
00:19:04
limited only by our imagination. And
00:19:07
before we would have never been able to
00:19:09
tackle these great frontiers, but this
00:19:11
magical new technology came about called
00:19:13
robots. And these robots are are going
00:19:15
to allow us to actually make use of
00:19:17
these frontiers and explore them and
00:19:19
develop them. And that's why this is
00:19:21
such an incredible moment where this
00:19:23
intersection of autonomy and robotics
00:19:26
and space traversal kind of drive
00:19:28
forward humanity into this new era. And
00:19:30
it's again, this is not a zero sum game.
00:19:33
This is expanding humanity's potential,
00:19:35
expanding production, which is so
00:19:37
different than the way the socialists on
00:19:38
Earth are talking about it where
00:19:39
everyone's fighting against progress
00:19:42
because they think that progress is some
00:19:44
people taking things from other people.
00:19:45
And the truth is, it's about everyone
00:19:47
building stuff that's new and everyone
00:19:50
benefiting from this.
00:19:51
>> I'm gonna open a hotel casino in the
00:19:53
space.
00:19:54
>> Go. That'd be so serious.
00:19:55
>> Serious.
00:19:56
>> Absolutely.
00:19:57
>> You think it's funny, but I am.
00:19:58
>> I would love that.
00:19:59
>> Yeah. And then no rake. No rake. No
00:20:02
gravity. No rake. No gravity. Bob,
00:20:06
>> no tax on tips or poker winnings. I love
00:20:10
it. Whoever implements the red light
00:20:13
district in space is going to become a
00:20:15
trillionaire.
00:20:15
>> Oh, wow. That's Yeah, with the robotics
00:20:18
and the uh pleasure droids, replicants.
00:20:21
Oh, man. It could get crazy. All right.
00:20:22
Well, let's just hope you're we're not
00:20:24
the Donner party on the way there. Um
00:20:27
>> 2026,
00:20:28
>> don't worry. You'll be you'll be safely
00:20:30
on the ground
00:20:31
>> shing syndicates. You'll be fine. I
00:20:34
>> I'll tell you something. Uh thank you.
00:20:35
Shout out the syndicate.com apply to
00:20:38
join me in great companies.
00:20:40
>> Do you listen? I'm still You guys might
00:20:42
be retiring, but I'm in the game. I'm in
00:20:44
the arena trying things.
00:20:46
>> I'm selling I'm selling enterprise
00:20:48
software every day. That's what
00:20:49
>> I mean. He literally Truman said, "Hey,
00:20:51
Jake, can we wrap this up real quick cuz
00:20:52
I got to get on a sales call. I got a
00:20:54
discovery call."
00:20:56
>> Listen, I like the fact that we're all
00:20:57
working. We're working into our 50s. I
00:21:00
love it. Hey, 2026 could be an alltime
00:21:03
record for IPOs. Looks like it will be
00:21:06
Anthropic,
00:21:07
OpenAI, Data Bricks. I mean these are
00:21:10
all
00:21:11
nine and possibly 10 figure IPOs in
00:21:14
terms of the valuations. Long tale of
00:21:16
other companies uh Stripe, Cerebrus,
00:21:21
Canva,
00:21:22
Discord, lots of people waiting. Here's
00:21:24
your Poly Market. SpaceX 94% obviously
00:21:27
that looks like it's uh we just talked
00:21:29
about that for 20 minutes. Anthropic 41%
00:21:32
and people were saying 70% in February,
00:21:34
OpenAI 38%, data bricks 32%.
00:21:38
People are wondering what could um
00:21:40
derail this. Obviously we we we have a
00:21:43
very pro business group of people in
00:21:46
Washington DC, but you have potentially
00:21:48
this uh Iran war and we'll talk about
00:21:50
that later in the program could
00:21:53
potentially push us back if god forbid
00:21:54
it was to spiral or there was a
00:21:56
recession. Uh maybe the Democrats
00:22:00
you know, taking control of Congress,
00:22:01
Senate, etc. What are your thoughts here
00:22:03
on the flurry of potential IPOs? We're
00:22:06
talking about trillions of dollars of
00:22:08
companies, Chimath. And if that does
00:22:10
happen, let's start talking second and
00:22:11
third order impact of of that kind of
00:22:14
distribution chain that could happen for
00:22:17
LPS and then just also all these
00:22:19
employees. Uh, you know, and then a
00:22:22
currency for these companies. We go from
00:22:24
a mag 7 to a MAG 17. It looks like
00:22:26
>> I think that we have a bit of a risk
00:22:28
problem. And I think this is why it
00:22:31
makes so much sense for Elon to get out
00:22:34
first.
00:22:36
If you think about appetite as
00:22:38
equivalent to like a person at a
00:22:40
Thanksgiving dinner, when you first come
00:22:42
in and you see all of this stuff, it's
00:22:43
so plentiful. Your eyes are bigger than
00:22:45
your stomach. And I think in a moment
00:22:48
like that, you want to be the one that
00:22:51
is consumed first. M
00:22:53
>> and I think the risk increases when you
00:22:56
are at the tail end because the risk is
00:22:58
that the diners will run out of space
00:23:00
and if you use that fills up yeah
00:23:02
>> and if you use that analogy I think the
00:23:05
reason why people's plates will get full
00:23:08
are probably twofold and maybe
00:23:10
three-fold
00:23:12
the first and most important thing is
00:23:15
there's enough tactical event risk that
00:23:19
people generally want to be risk off and
00:23:21
have more margin of safety.
00:23:25
I think the Iran thing is kind of in
00:23:27
there, but I think the big tactical
00:23:30
event risk is that we have a lot of
00:23:33
these really important financial moments
00:23:36
tied to this concept of AGI, ASI, I
00:23:39
don't know if you saw the OpenAI
00:23:42
announcement on their final terms, but
00:23:44
you know, a huge slug of Amazon's
00:23:46
capital is tied to a 2028 IPO or a
00:23:49
moment that calls for this. Then there
00:23:52
was a bunch of leaked text messages or
00:23:55
whatever that said that there's a
00:23:57
version of some AGI running inside of
00:23:59
anthropic. Then there was the fact that,
00:24:02
you know, the leak of claude code
00:24:03
basically demonstrated that they had
00:24:05
feature flagged away a bunch of
00:24:07
improvements. So if you stack up all
00:24:08
these improvements, they're actually
00:24:11
much further ahead than the models
00:24:12
realized. If you take all of that as a
00:24:14
basket, it goes back to what I said last
00:24:16
week, which is we have a real pricing
00:24:19
problem. If AGI is real, the durability
00:24:23
of most companies is slim to none. If
00:24:26
AGI is not real, then the fundraising
00:24:28
capacity of these companies that are now
00:24:30
raising hundreds of billions of dollars
00:24:32
needs to get questioned and inspected
00:24:34
thoroughly. History will sort out which
00:24:37
one is right. But both cannot be right.
00:24:38
So in that vein, I actually think Jal, I
00:24:41
don't think we're going to have like
00:24:42
these quote unquote blockbuster stream
00:24:44
of IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX
00:24:46
is going to get out. They're going to do
00:24:48
great
00:24:49
and then maybe the next one does good to
00:24:52
great, then the next one will do good
00:24:55
and then the appetite runs out because
00:24:57
you just can't absorb incrementally
00:25:00
trillions of dollars of new demand. And
00:25:04
if you think about it, where is it going
00:25:06
to come from? Is it going to come from
00:25:07
the sidelines? I don't know. I think
00:25:09
it's more of a reallocation exercise.
00:25:10
But if you look at the S&P, well, most
00:25:13
people are now defensively moving away
00:25:15
from these kinds of things towards the
00:25:17
things that are more protected, what the
00:25:19
industry calls halo, right?
00:25:21
High asset, low obsolescence kind of
00:25:23
businesses. Those things trade for zero
00:25:26
today, Jason.
00:25:27
>> You could buy hundreds of millions of
00:25:29
dollars of year of cash flow for two to
00:25:31
five times right now in the stock
00:25:32
market. And so why are you gonna go way
00:25:35
out on the risk curve and buy something
00:25:37
at 200 times
00:25:39
revs, let alone earnings?
00:25:41
>> Yeah. The the
00:25:42
>> So I don't know. I'm I'm more in the
00:25:44
camp of
00:25:46
I think it's good to be first. It's
00:25:49
pretty decent to be second, but if I
00:25:50
were you, I would get the heck out and
00:25:53
get public and get your money and
00:25:54
fortify your balance sheet ASAP because
00:25:57
I think the risk builds the further down
00:26:00
the IPO chain you're in. Yeah. There's
00:26:02
going to be a competition for investor
00:26:05
dollars, whether it's retail or it's
00:26:08
institutional or sovereign wealth funds.
00:26:10
They're going to have a lot of choices
00:26:12
here. Do you want to be in Nvidia? Do
00:26:13
you want to be in SpaceX? Maybe you have
00:26:16
to rotate out of Amazon or Google or
00:26:18
Disney in order to take on those
00:26:20
opportunities. And that's going to be a
00:26:22
great competition. probably we could see
00:26:24
a lot of these IPOs Freedberg trade
00:26:27
below their IPO price in the year or two
00:26:30
after they come out and get repriced.
00:26:32
Yeah, like we've seen before. I think
00:26:35
the market's going to need to find a
00:26:36
price. Remember, the share owners in a
00:26:38
lot of these companies have held on to
00:26:41
these shares for a long period of time
00:26:43
and the valuations are extraordinary. I
00:26:45
mean, hundreds of billions of dollars in
00:26:47
market value coming to market liquid for
00:26:49
the first time. Some of these investors
00:26:52
dep regardless of whatever their entry
00:26:54
price was are going to be looking for
00:26:55
liquidity. So there's only so much
00:26:58
capital to absorb those shares on the
00:27:01
buy side. Meaning if the buyers and the
00:27:03
bid is not there to fulfill all of the
00:27:06
selling then you're going to see the
00:27:08
share price decline and the market's
00:27:09
going to find a price. And so I I think
00:27:12
this idea that like an IPO is, you know,
00:27:15
just a step in driving the price or
00:27:18
value of a company up is a pretty false
00:27:20
sense. And I think we'll realize it's
00:27:22
pretty false as some of these IPOs take
00:27:23
place because there is so much pent-up
00:27:26
selling demand. There is so much value
00:27:27
that's being created. There's going to
00:27:29
be so much selling pressure and then
00:27:31
there's going to be very little buying
00:27:33
activity on some of these because anyone
00:27:35
that could have bought at scale on the
00:27:37
buy side postpublic were already in a
00:27:40
lot of these companies pre-public as
00:27:42
private companies and so I don't know
00:27:44
who the big buyers are that everyone's
00:27:46
expecting are going to show up. They're
00:27:47
probably thinking hey it's going to be
00:27:48
retail retail. Yeah. I mean it's like
00:27:50
>> yeah but how much money does retail have
00:27:52
left? I mean you if you look at retail
00:27:53
investors they have a certain amount of
00:27:55
powder and it's probably deployed. It's
00:27:58
not like they have unlimited places to
00:28:00
look for that. And you know, there's
00:28:01
some evidence of this. Bloomberg ran an
00:28:04
article on Wednesday. We tape on
00:28:06
Thursday, folks. And you get to listen
00:28:08
to the pot on Fridays. Open AAI is
00:28:10
falling out of favor with secondary
00:28:12
buyers. According to a report, OpenAI
00:28:14
investors can't find buyers at the new
00:28:17
$850 billion valuation that Shimoth
00:28:19
referenced earlier, investors Bloomberg
00:28:22
spoke to are looking to sell $600
00:28:25
million worth of shares. people are
00:28:27
looking for liquidity and said they were
00:28:29
institutional investors. Anthropic
00:28:32
currently valued at 300 billion is
00:28:33
seeing major secondary bids at a $600
00:28:35
billion valuation. So I think Chimoth
00:28:37
what this shows us is you're correct.
00:28:40
They're you know OpenAI and Anthropic
00:28:42
are the two next cards. That's your turn
00:28:44
in river folks. If SpaceX is the flop
00:28:47
and maybe they're massively overvalued
00:28:50
right now. Maybe they're three four 500
00:28:52
million billion dollar companies not
00:28:53
trillion dollar companies. And if you
00:28:55
look at the amount of revenue 24 billion
00:28:58
for uh open AI at 852 billion that's 35
00:29:02
times price to sales ratio and that is a
00:29:06
absurd price to sales ratio depending on
00:29:08
if the growth keeps happening and as you
00:29:10
referenced chimoth what if we are at
00:29:12
artificial general intelligence AGI and
00:29:15
the moes on these things is dimminimous
00:29:18
or or there is no moat anthropic just
00:29:21
got hacked all their secrets are out
00:29:24
Somebody transmuted the code into
00:29:27
another language, posted it on GitHub,
00:29:30
can't be stopped. I don't know if you
00:29:31
saw that story, Freeberg, but this is
00:29:33
kind of mind-blowing. Somebody took the
00:29:35
anthropic code, I don't know what it was
00:29:36
written in, and then basically just put
00:29:38
it into another language, reposted it.
00:29:40
If Anthropic comes and says, "Hey, you
00:29:43
can't do that." Well, that negates their
00:29:46
argument, Chimamoth, that they're
00:29:48
allowed to train on other people's data
00:29:50
and then spit out a different output. So
00:29:52
this is a very weird moment in time,
00:29:54
right?
00:29:55
>> It is. I think you're you're bringing up
00:29:57
a bunch of different points, so let me
00:29:59
just sort them out in the order that I
00:30:00
think is important.
00:30:02
>> Is there a market for open AI at 800
00:30:04
billion? Yes, and there should be. When
00:30:06
I read that press release, my mind was
00:30:09
blown. This is like I've never seen a
00:30:11
business like this. And I'd say the same
00:30:14
thing of Anthropic.
00:30:15
What an incredible thing that both of
00:30:17
these two companies have been able to
00:30:18
create. Nobody in the history of the
00:30:22
world has ever seen two businesses like
00:30:25
this at this scale. Okay, it's
00:30:28
unbelievable. These are trillion dollar
00:30:30
companies. They both are. And they both
00:30:34
deserve to be. How profitable they are,
00:30:37
I don't know. What their terminal
00:30:38
valuation is, I don't know. What will
00:30:41
people pay for at IPO? I don't know. But
00:30:44
Nick, I just shared something with you.
00:30:46
These two companies need to get out as
00:30:49
quickly as possible. And the reason is
00:30:52
every single company that comes after
00:30:54
it, all those companies that you just
00:30:56
named, Jason, are not nearly as
00:30:57
important and do not need the money
00:30:59
nearly as badly as these guys do. And
00:31:01
where will it come from? The specific
00:31:03
answer to your question when you look at
00:31:04
this chart is the tech sector PE is
00:31:07
going to shrink faster in my opinion
00:31:09
than the non- tech PE. And the reason is
00:31:12
because as these companies come out the
00:31:16
combination of SpaceX, OpenAI and
00:31:18
Anthropic, all three are baking an AI
00:31:22
technology that first and foremost will
00:31:25
go after the tech sector. It will
00:31:27
eliminate and it will cannibalize and it
00:31:30
will erode
00:31:32
most of the moes that support this
00:31:35
differential trading. So if I were a
00:31:37
betting man, my first bet is as those
00:31:39
three companies come out, these software
00:31:42
businesses are going to approach the
00:31:44
rest of the non- tech PE.
00:31:47
Okay, that's the first step that has to
00:31:48
happen. So the rate of change of of the
00:31:51
multiple erosion will basically say to
00:31:55
the world, hey, these tech companies are
00:31:57
I don't know, I'll buy the first five or
00:31:59
six years of this story, but I'm not
00:32:00
buying year 15 of this anymore because
00:32:02
these three guys are going to build
00:32:04
something. So that's where the money
00:32:06
comes from. That's why I think after
00:32:08
SpaceX, these two guys need to get their
00:32:10
act together, file quickly, get out and
00:32:12
just get the money, fortify their
00:32:14
balance sheets, and be in a position.
00:32:17
>> Everything that happens after that is a
00:32:18
total coin toss because once these three
00:32:20
companies are public, I think the blue
00:32:23
line will converge to the orange line
00:32:24
and it's going to be nasty.
00:32:26
>> Yeah. Freeberg, just looking at this, do
00:32:29
you believe that secondary market is a
00:32:31
canary in the coal mine here with Open
00:32:33
AI? Because if we we've and we've gone
00:32:35
through this year after year here. These
00:32:37
are exceptional businesses. They've
00:32:39
grown incredible. Customers love their
00:32:41
products, but the burn is brutal. The
00:32:44
circular financing problem is still out
00:32:46
there. Like what's reality here? The and
00:32:49
that's going to all come out when these
00:32:50
S1s get filed and they're publicly
00:32:52
traded companies and they have quarterly
00:32:53
earnings reports. Market share for these
00:32:57
could be flipping. Anthropic and and
00:32:59
Gemini, other players coming into the
00:33:01
market.
00:33:02
What are your thoughts here on uh
00:33:05
anthropic and open AI post the SpaceX
00:33:09
IPO?
00:33:09
>> Like I said, there's only so much
00:33:11
capital in the world. So, I do think one
00:33:14
of the things that's probably being
00:33:15
underestimated at the moment is the
00:33:18
liquidity crunch that's ahead for
00:33:20
capital intensive technology businesses
00:33:24
given the conflict in the Middle East. I
00:33:26
don't think that Qatar and certain Saudi
00:33:29
offices and certain offices in UAE and
00:33:32
Oman are as eager as they were or you
00:33:37
know have been to provide large slugs of
00:33:40
capital to support these initiatives and
00:33:42
remember that capital moves its way
00:33:44
through the markets whether it's through
00:33:45
JP Morgan and a loan to Soft Bank which
00:33:47
then gets paid to open AAI at the end of
00:33:50
the day there has to be unencumbered
00:33:51
debtfree capital that's being provided
00:33:54
to these systems.
00:33:55
from somewhere in the world. And if you
00:33:57
trace all of it back, like a large chunk
00:33:59
of it has historically in the last
00:34:01
couple of years come from Middle East
00:34:03
sovereigns and family offices. And I
00:34:05
think that those are likely going to
00:34:06
tighten up in the near term. That being
00:34:08
the case, there's probably less demand.
00:34:10
I do think that there's a lot of
00:34:11
secondary demand coming from family
00:34:13
offices in Europe and Singapore, places
00:34:15
like that that that generally have not
00:34:17
had great access or early stage access
00:34:19
to private companies. But at some point,
00:34:21
there's only so much demand there. So I
00:34:24
don't know like how far this is going to
00:34:26
go or when this capital crunch that's
00:34:28
going to emerge. I think from the Middle
00:34:29
East I don't think we've really felt the
00:34:30
shock wave yet on what's happening
00:34:32
because remember a lot of these Middle
00:34:33
East capital commitments were made in
00:34:35
the last cycle as LP commitments or
00:34:37
whatever. And you know if they stop if
00:34:40
they downscale LP commitments or they
00:34:43
stop doing primary and secondary
00:34:44
transactions you know it takes a little
00:34:46
bit of time before the market feels that
00:34:48
and then it's like oh the reliable goto
00:34:50
are gone and a lot of the big funds the
00:34:52
the mega funds that are out there
00:34:54
>> totally
00:34:55
>> that have Middle East LPS are gone and
00:34:57
suddenly everyone's going to be like
00:34:58
whoa and the shock wave will hit. So
00:35:01
let's see it is a risk for the United
00:35:03
States because China I don't think is
00:35:05
going to be as challenged. We're so
00:35:07
dependent on Middle East capital. It may
00:35:09
be that China has an a capital advantage
00:35:12
actually going into this next phase.
00:35:14
>> I mean, and we talked about forcing your
00:35:17
>> come into play here if this Iran thing
00:35:20
spirals, god forbid, out of control
00:35:22
>> or gets worse. People could say, you
00:35:24
know what, we're going to downscale our
00:35:26
commitments and hey, there's a war, so
00:35:27
we don't have to fund. I
00:35:28
>> think the markets I think the markets
00:35:30
have shaked that off, Jason. I don't
00:35:31
think that they they view this Iran
00:35:33
thing as a big thing. I think the big
00:35:34
event risk in the market is is AI real
00:35:37
or not real? And if it's real, what are
00:35:39
all of these companies worth? That is
00:35:41
the big sort of damices over the stock
00:35:43
market.
00:35:43
>> Yeah. All right. Well, that's a good
00:35:45
segue, I think, into talking uh a bit
00:35:48
about Iran. We took the week off from it
00:35:50
last week
00:35:52
and we're going to catch up.
00:35:54
>> By the way, not because we just to be
00:35:55
clear, not because we intended to, which
00:35:57
all the comments railed us on, but we
00:35:59
literally Jason did a terrible job
00:36:01
moderating. It was on the freaking
00:36:02
docket. We were supposed to talk about
00:36:04
it. We didn't get to it. He dialed it in
00:36:06
and we went right in.
00:36:07
>> He dialed it in. It's clearly my fault.
00:36:09
Um,
00:36:11
>> he DMV it. He, you know, it's like I'm
00:36:13
just protecting Trump. I'm out here
00:36:15
getting cover for Trump's mistakes.
00:36:17
>> Yeah.
00:36:18
>> Everybody knows I'm in the pocket of
00:36:21
President Trump.
00:36:21
>> Take a ticket. Take a ticket. Oh, you
00:36:23
have an issue. Okay. Well, you're issue
00:36:24
number 17.
00:36:25
>> Trump DM'd me and said, "Can you please
00:36:27
take this off the docket?" I was like,
00:36:29
"You got to bust."
00:36:30
>> And then you're like, "Oh, sorry. Office
00:36:31
is closed. Come back tomorrow. Today is
00:36:34
day 34 of the Iran War slmilitary
00:36:38
operation. Trump addressed the nation
00:36:40
Wednesday night for a brisk 18 minutes.
00:36:42
Here's a 40 secondond clip.
00:36:44
>> We're now totally independent of the
00:36:47
Middle East. And yet, we are there to
00:36:50
help. We don't have to be there. We
00:36:52
don't need their oil. We don't need
00:36:54
anything they have, but we're there to
00:36:55
help our allies. For years, everyone has
00:36:58
said that Iran cannot have nuclear
00:37:01
weapons. But in the end, those are just
00:37:03
words if you're not willing to take
00:37:05
action when the time comes. Our
00:37:08
objectives are very simple and clear. We
00:37:11
are systematically dismantling the
00:37:12
regime's ability to threaten America or
00:37:15
project power outside of their borders.
00:37:18
And tonight, I'm pleased to say that
00:37:20
these core strategic objectives are
00:37:23
nearing completion.
00:37:24
>> All right, the costs here are mounting.
00:37:26
Uh war is a very serious business. 13
00:37:30
American service members have tragically
00:37:32
died. Over 200 have been injured. On the
00:37:34
other side of the ledger, 3,500 Iranians
00:37:36
have died, including 1,600 civilians and
00:37:39
over 200 children. 1,200 people in
00:37:42
Lebanon have died from Israeli strikes.
00:37:45
And we now have 50,000 troops deployed
00:37:48
to the Middle East. Chances of a ground
00:37:53
invasion are increasing. War has cost
00:37:56
$70 billion so far. That's assuming $2
00:37:59
billion a day, which there seems to be
00:38:01
consensus on via the Department of War.
00:38:04
Pentagon has asked Congress for another
00:38:06
$200 billion.
00:38:09
To put that in context, the war in
00:38:13
Ukraine was $113 billion in the first
00:38:16
year. This could quickly exceed it when
00:38:19
we hit 50 days. This isn't cheap. There
00:38:23
are lots of costs. Here's uh your poly
00:38:25
market on a ceasefire. 25% chance of a
00:38:28
ceasefire by the end of April, 47 chance
00:38:31
by the end of May. The sharps are
00:38:33
thinking this could wrap up, but ground
00:38:35
invasion,
00:38:37
which would be just really
00:38:41
impactful. I think 63% chance by the end
00:38:44
of April, 71 chance by the end of
00:38:47
December. We're going to get into the
00:38:48
second order effects, but what do you
00:38:50
think, Chimamoth? Uh, this obviously is
00:38:53
super unpopular war.
00:38:55
>> I think two things. And the president
00:38:58
kind of alluded to one that I think is
00:38:59
very important, which is if you are not
00:39:01
energy independent, you are at risk. And
00:39:04
I don't know how many more examples now
00:39:07
that world leaders need to be shown to
00:39:09
get their acts together. So if the
00:39:11
Ukraine Russian conflict didn't show
00:39:14
Europe, then this should show not just
00:39:16
Europe, but the rest of the world. You
00:39:18
need to be in control of your own energy
00:39:20
infrastructure and energy independence
00:39:23
because stuff happens in the world and
00:39:25
you're not always in control or can
00:39:27
shape how that stuff
00:39:29
can indirectly or directly affect you.
00:39:32
The United States has energy
00:39:34
independence. It's an incredible
00:39:35
situation. What was interesting to me is
00:39:37
if you look at Europe, you know, they
00:39:39
gutted a couple of their energy markets
00:39:43
and they essentially seated control to a
00:39:46
combination of very expensive imports
00:39:50
and China. They did that in markets like
00:39:54
nuclear where they just went out of it.
00:39:55
They did that in things like Nack Gas
00:39:57
where again we can debate but where
00:39:59
where did Nordstream 2 go? We don't
00:40:01
know. And they did that in things like
00:40:02
solar where they just gutted all of the
00:40:04
credits. But what's interesting is
00:40:06
they're starting to turn that around. I
00:40:09
think Italy just reintroduced
00:40:11
effectively what's called investment tax
00:40:13
credits. Spain just did as well. Germany
00:40:16
is restarting nuclear. So if you just
00:40:19
look at the the last few months,
00:40:22
just that change is incredibly important
00:40:26
because our largest ally Europe should
00:40:29
be fundamentally energyindependent so
00:40:32
that they preserve complete and total
00:40:34
optionality like we do in how we respond
00:40:37
to these situations.
00:40:39
That I think is a is a critical thing
00:40:42
that is a positive outcome of what's
00:40:44
happening. And then the second Jason,
00:40:45
which I think is a huge question mark
00:40:46
and it builds on what Freeberg said
00:40:48
before, the Middle Eastern states,
00:40:51
specifically the UAE and Saudi, Qatar,
00:40:55
Kuwait,
00:40:57
they are our most important financing
00:40:59
and banking partner in the future.
00:41:03
And I think we need to see a conclusive
00:41:05
end to this war because they need to be
00:41:09
in a position to monetize these critical
00:41:10
assets. Because at the same time, if you
00:41:12
see these big pools of demand
00:41:15
start to become energy independent by
00:41:18
either accelerating nuclear, but I again
00:41:20
that's just problematic and slow, but
00:41:22
frankly they're just going to ramp up
00:41:24
solar. That's the only way that you can
00:41:25
dispatch energy quickly. I think what
00:41:28
that does is it decreases hydrocarbon
00:41:30
demand over the long run. That then
00:41:32
decreases the monetization capacity for
00:41:34
these countries. So if you put these two
00:41:36
things together,
00:41:38
all of these folks in the region want
00:41:40
safety, security, and they need a quick
00:41:42
end to this thing now.
00:41:43
>> Okay.
00:41:44
>> And I think that they're more
00:41:45
incentivized to put boots on the ground,
00:41:46
Jason, than America is. That's the point
00:41:48
I was trying to make. Freeberg, let's
00:41:50
talk a little bit about fertilizer.
00:41:54
You had brought up when we had the start
00:41:56
of the Ukraine war. Hey, this is the
00:41:59
bread basket. We could have a massive
00:42:01
famine. Thankfully, that was avoided.
00:42:04
There were carveouts for getting wheat
00:42:06
and and other crops out of Ukraine, but
00:42:11
here we are again with a significant
00:42:13
amount of fertilizer comes out of that
00:42:15
region and it's not flowing right now.
00:42:19
Do you have concerns this time around
00:42:21
that we could see something similar?
00:42:23
>> Fertilizer is made up of three elements.
00:42:26
There's different fertilizers. The one
00:42:28
element is N for nitrogen, P for
00:42:30
phosphorus, and K for potassium. Ukraine
00:42:33
is the largest producer of the K, the
00:42:36
potassium, the pot ash,
00:42:39
but the N in fertilizer is nitrogen. And
00:42:43
that is about 60% of what goes into the
00:42:45
ground. That's 60 to 65% of global
00:42:48
fertilizer is the nitrogen. That's what
00:42:49
really drives agricultural productivity.
00:42:53
And we need nitrogen fertilizer to grow
00:42:55
crops everywhere on Earth that we're
00:42:57
growing crops to feed people at scale.
00:43:00
That nitrogen is primarily made where
00:43:03
natural gas is produced and processed.
00:43:06
And the reason is that they use the
00:43:07
natural gas as an input to the
00:43:10
production process. They get the the
00:43:11
carbon, the hydrogen, the oxygen, and
00:43:14
then they compress, remember 70% of our
00:43:16
atmosphere is made up of nitrogen gas.
00:43:19
So they compress the nitrogen in the air
00:43:20
to 200 times atmospheric pressure, run
00:43:23
it over a electrical current with a
00:43:26
metal catalyst, and you break apart the
00:43:28
N2. you have just single nitrogen atoms
00:43:30
and then you combine it back and you end
00:43:32
up getting ammonia out of the other end.
00:43:35
That's why nitrogen fertilizers are
00:43:38
produced where natural gas is processed.
00:43:41
So the Middle East obviously is a
00:43:43
massive producer particularly in Qatar
00:43:44
of natural gas and that's why so much of
00:43:47
the world's nitrogen fertilizer is made
00:43:50
in the Middle East. In fact, about 35%
00:43:52
of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes
00:43:54
through the straight of Hormuz, and it
00:43:56
is then shipped to countries around the
00:43:57
world that farm and that need it to grow
00:44:00
their crops. The swing producer in the
00:44:03
world is China. China historically makes
00:44:05
about 15% of the world's nitrogen
00:44:07
fertilizer. And when the war started a
00:44:10
few days after it began, China shut down
00:44:12
exports of their nitrogen fertilizer.
00:44:14
And so they basically choked out the
00:44:16
rest of the world. And so when the
00:44:17
straight of Hormuz shut the nitrogen
00:44:19
stopped flowing here you can see the
00:44:21
price spike that happened. So as the the
00:44:23
war began this is ura. URA is the solid
00:44:26
form of nitrogen fertilizer. So URA was
00:44:29
trading at about 350 bucks a ton before
00:44:32
the the conflict kind of took off and it
00:44:35
continues to spike up. It reached over
00:44:37
$700 a ton in the last two days. And
00:44:41
this is really really really impactful.
00:44:43
It's not just like oh the price is
00:44:44
double. Number one, there's a supply
00:44:46
deficiency. So farmers in places like
00:44:48
Africa and South Asia are not getting
00:44:51
the ura that they need to farm. That is
00:44:53
going to have a massive follow-on
00:44:55
problem. And in markets where they have
00:44:58
access because the price has spiked like
00:45:00
in the United States, our biggest crop
00:45:02
is corn. You need about 200 pounds of
00:45:04
that ura per acre for corn. And that
00:45:08
cost basically makes you unprofitable.
00:45:10
There is no way you can make a
00:45:12
profitable crop of corn. The other thing
00:45:14
that China did at the same time is they
00:45:15
stopped buying corn. So corn prices
00:45:18
would normally spike up and corn prices
00:45:20
have remained low while the input prices
00:45:22
have spiked for American farmers. So
00:45:24
American farmers are in a real pickle.
00:45:26
Fortunately for this spring planting,
00:45:28
which is happening right now, about
00:45:30
twothirds of American farmers had
00:45:32
already secured their fertilizer before
00:45:35
the this began, but a third did not and
00:45:37
they're switching crops typically to
00:45:39
soybeans. But we have a fall planting
00:45:41
coming up in a couple of months here and
00:45:43
the choke points on production is going
00:45:45
to keep prices very high. In the United
00:45:47
States, we make a lot of our own ammonia
00:45:49
at our natural gas facilities in places
00:45:51
like Oklahoma and Texas and Wyoming and
00:45:54
other places and then it ships directly
00:45:56
to the farms. But the cost is so high
00:45:58
because of the global market that it's
00:45:59
going to become very hard for farmers to
00:46:01
make a profit. And around the world
00:46:03
there are many farmers, millions and
00:46:05
millions of farmers that can't access
00:46:06
this fertilizer now. So the choke point
00:46:08
in the straight of Hormuz is turning out
00:46:10
to be a real critical global food supply
00:46:12
crisis yet again similar to Ukraine. And
00:46:15
remember there was about 400 million
00:46:16
people following the Ukraine war
00:46:19
globally that we saw enter into a state
00:46:21
of malnourishment. This means more than
00:46:22
one year of,200 calories or less per day
00:46:25
for a year. 400 million people after
00:46:28
Ukraine. So coming out of this crisis it
00:46:31
could be even more severe given the
00:46:33
criticality of nitrogen based
00:46:34
fertilizers and the shutdown of the
00:46:36
straight. Let me make two more points on
00:46:38
this. You would think, okay, we'll make
00:46:39
more nitrogen fertilizer. The facilities
00:46:41
take at least three to five years to fix
00:46:43
when they break, which is what just
00:46:45
happened in Qatar. That facility got
00:46:47
damaged, the main facility that's being
00:46:48
used to make fertilizer. So that is the
00:46:50
largest producer of ura in the world.
00:46:53
That's now going to be incapacitated for
00:46:55
3 to 5 years. And if you want to build a
00:46:57
new facility, takes about 7 years. All
00:47:00
the facilities around the world that
00:47:01
make ura and ammonia these nitrogen
00:47:03
fertilizers typically run 24/7 365 at
00:47:07
full capacity. There is no downtime
00:47:09
where you can just turn on excess
00:47:10
production in the world. So you know the
00:47:12
world is very delicate in its balance of
00:47:14
inputs and food production outputs. The
00:47:17
whole world has like less than 30 days
00:47:18
of food of calories stored up. So as
00:47:21
these kind of supply chain problems
00:47:23
start to percolate there's shock waves
00:47:25
that start to get felt around the world.
00:47:26
So, it's a pretty serious crisis ahead
00:47:29
and it'll take a few months before it'll
00:47:30
be fully realized. In the meantime, US
00:47:32
farmers are getting their asses handed
00:47:34
to them. They can't make money and China
00:47:36
is using this as a moment for
00:47:38
extraordinary leverage over America and
00:47:40
taking advantage of the situation by
00:47:42
shutting down exports of their
00:47:43
fertilizer and at the same time not
00:47:45
buying American production of corn. We
00:47:47
probably need Freedberg to have some
00:47:49
sort of resiliency here and address this
00:47:51
like we did with pharmaceuticals, PPE,
00:47:54
all these other things. Yeah, we should
00:47:56
have some sort of stockpile of
00:47:58
fertilizer.
00:47:59
>> Kimat's point is absolutely correct.
00:48:01
Natural gas reservoirs exist around the
00:48:03
world and we've been loathed to exploit
00:48:06
them or develop them because of the
00:48:10
climate change carbon risks and issues.
00:48:13
But I think what we're realizing is that
00:48:14
those are luxury beliefs to an extent.
00:48:17
You can only say let's not exploit
00:48:19
carbon resources until you hit a shock
00:48:21
wave like this and then people are like
00:48:23
wait a second we really do need to have
00:48:25
these systems up and running and we need
00:48:26
to have excess capacity and local
00:48:28
capacity in the system because single
00:48:30
points of failure for the whole world's
00:48:32
food supply is not going to cut it
00:48:34
anymore particularly as the world is
00:48:36
becoming more fragmented and multipolar
00:48:38
and there's less US policing of the
00:48:40
world that's going to happen and so on.
00:48:42
It's going to be very critical that
00:48:43
everyone starts to think about doubling
00:48:44
down not just on energy production but
00:48:46
some of these other critical inputs like
00:48:48
fertilizer and another output just as a
00:48:50
quick side story on that gas production
00:48:53
is when you pull that gas out of the
00:48:54
ground that's the primary place we find
00:48:57
helium and helium we're all waking up to
00:48:59
the fact you know we never really think
00:49:00
about helium we think about kids
00:49:01
balloons at birthday parties
00:49:03
>> but helium goes into MRI machines helium
00:49:06
goes into semiconductor manufacturing
00:49:07
helium goes into mass spec machines that
00:49:09
are used in chemical analysis with a lot
00:49:12
applications around the world. Helium is
00:49:14
a critical input to medical equipment,
00:49:17
to manufacturing equipment, and all of a
00:49:20
sudden, a third of the world's helium
00:49:22
coming out of Qatar is not making it
00:49:24
out. And so, we're now going to have a
00:49:25
helium supply shock that's going to
00:49:27
affect the world. So, we're starting to
00:49:28
wake up to the fact that perhaps these
00:49:30
nat gas fields that we've allowed to
00:49:32
kind of turn a blind eye and say, "Let
00:49:34
one country exploit them and let them
00:49:36
make all the nat gas." The US is
00:49:37
actively developing. You know, I went
00:49:39
down and visited that Chenny air
00:49:41
facility in Louisiana with Doug Bergam a
00:49:43
couple months ago, which was an amazing
00:49:44
site to see where we do all the LG
00:49:47
exporting, but the US has extraordinary
00:49:50
nat gas reserves. So do many other
00:49:52
places in the world that have failed to
00:49:54
take advantage of developing them. And I
00:49:56
think we're realizing the criticality of
00:49:57
doing so at this moment.
00:49:59
>> Looking at this, I think we'll have
00:50:01
Trump pivot extremely soon. I've brought
00:50:04
this chart up now. This will be the
00:50:06
fourth time.
00:50:06
>> Is that your prediction, Jal? think he's
00:50:08
going to wrap this up? I mean,
00:50:09
>> he's 100% going to wrap this up and I
00:50:11
and and I can show why. I mean, this
00:50:13
just basically look at the history of
00:50:14
this. You guys remember I brought up
00:50:17
this chart with Trump's net approval
00:50:21
rating and you you look at how this has
00:50:24
changed over the three times I brought
00:50:26
it up. First time in June last year,
00:50:28
then October. Uh, and again, I'm going
00:50:30
to bring it up here.
00:50:32
the stuff with ICE and, you know, the
00:50:37
Epstein files and just going right down
00:50:39
the line of unpopular decisions. Trump's
00:50:42
net approval rating now has just
00:50:44
plummeted to -17. This is the least
00:50:48
popular he's ever been. And he's had to
00:50:51
pivot here. Pam Bondi at the time we are
00:50:53
uh recording this as I predicted on a
00:50:56
previous episode that
00:50:58
Christine Gnome and Pam Bondi would be
00:51:01
fired uh or in I guess Trump's terms he
00:51:04
likes to uh get them a new job and give
00:51:06
them a window seat. This is absolutely
00:51:10
going to result in a quick pivot. Who
00:51:13
knows what the downstream effects are
00:51:14
but the inflation three handle is coming
00:51:17
back. According to Poly Market, gas is
00:51:20
over $4 a gallon. And then, you know,
00:51:22
it's easy to mock like we did earlier
00:51:24
these like no kings protests, but 8
00:51:26
million people came out for that. That's
00:51:28
a large number. And if you look at the
00:51:31
poly market for what's going to happen
00:51:32
in the midterms, 51% chance now that the
00:51:35
Dems take the Senate, 86% that they take
00:51:38
the House. And you know what you're
00:51:40
going to take from that is
00:51:41
>> wait, sorry, Poly Market is now showing
00:51:43
the Democrats winning both houses.
00:51:46
>> Yeah, pull it up, Nick. significant
00:51:47
chance of that. And you know when this
00:51:49
happens, how much money is being bet on
00:51:51
that? Let's just see.
00:51:52
>> 51% they take the Senate, 86% they take
00:51:55
the House, and four and a half million
00:51:57
$4.5 million on this.
00:52:00
>> Oh gosh.
00:52:01
>> Yeah.
00:52:01
>> I tend to I tend to filter how seriously
00:52:04
I take Poly Market just based on the
00:52:05
total quantum, but this is a big number.
00:52:08
>> Yeah. And and I you know, listen, I this
00:52:10
is not me trying to dunk on Trump and my
00:52:13
personal beliefs. I think when you lose
00:52:15
Tucker, when you lose Megan Kelly, when
00:52:17
you lose Joe Rogan, you know, and people
00:52:20
are looking at who Trump surrounded him
00:52:23
with, there's really just two groups.
00:52:24
You have these super highly qualified
00:52:26
people, Bessant, Lutnik, obviously,
00:52:29
David Saxs. You got you got really
00:52:30
highly qualified people, JD, you know,
00:52:33
who who I think the world of. I think
00:52:34
these people are great. But then he put
00:52:36
some people in positions that I think
00:52:38
weren't up to the task. Pam Bondi,
00:52:41
Christie, I'll put Steven Miller and
00:52:43
Cash in that as well. It's my personal
00:52:45
belief in that case. And those people
00:52:47
have not served him well. And they need
00:52:50
to get this presidency back on track
00:52:52
because what's going to happen is we're
00:52:53
going to have two more years of
00:52:55
impeachments and investigations and the
00:52:58
whole thing's going to be derided. And
00:52:59
and we really need to start thinking
00:53:01
about what who's making these decisions.
00:53:03
Who who made this decision to go into
00:53:05
Iran and why? who made these decisions
00:53:08
to have ICE go into Minnesota and why?
00:53:10
And I think a lot of it goes back to
00:53:12
Steven Miller. I got mocked a bit here
00:53:15
on the pod for like blaming him, but you
00:53:17
can correlate Steven Miller, Christy
00:53:19
Gnome, Cash Patel, and Pam Bondi with
00:53:22
all of the downside of this presidency
00:53:24
and the plummeting ratings. Trump's
00:53:27
going to need to clear house. He's
00:53:28
cleared out two or four. I predict he'll
00:53:30
clear out the other two and get great
00:53:32
leadership in there and turn this
00:53:33
presidency around because listen, this
00:53:36
is going to be socialism now and AOC is
00:53:38
going to win. This is going to cause
00:53:40
massive chaos if he doesn't get out of
00:53:42
Iran and do it soon. Just my
00:53:45
handicapping of the situation. Uh
00:53:48
Hegath, I'm not so sure. I'm not sure if
00:53:50
I uh you know what I think of him yet,
00:53:51
but you know, we don't have information
00:53:54
on why Trump did this. That's going to
00:53:56
be the next shoe to drop
00:53:57
>> on why why he did it. Freeberg, I think,
00:53:59
you know, this is the point I made the
00:54:01
second this war happened or military
00:54:05
operation. I mean, let's let's call it
00:54:06
what it is. This is a war. When you kill
00:54:08
the top hundred people, it's a war. I
00:54:10
said, I don't have the information of
00:54:12
why he did this. Like, he might have
00:54:13
information, Freeberg, that we don't
00:54:15
have that made this an absolute must for
00:54:17
us to do,
00:54:18
>> but we haven't revealed that
00:54:20
information. He hasn't explained it well
00:54:21
to the American people. I think that's
00:54:23
why the ratings are,
00:54:24
>> you know, and I don't want to make the
00:54:26
ratings like a TV ratings. his
00:54:28
popularity is getting crushed here. The
00:54:31
way this was explained to Americans, and
00:54:33
again, I'm not inserting my position
00:54:34
here. I'm just talking about the
00:54:36
disconnect right now, is that Operation
00:54:38
Midnight Hammer was supposed to uh have
00:54:41
just decimated this. So, why did we do
00:54:43
this again? And we don't have the
00:54:45
information. This is why I try to stay
00:54:48
humble in this and say like, what
00:54:49
information does Trump have of that we
00:54:53
don't have? Some people seem to think
00:54:55
Chamath this was overconfidence.
00:54:58
There's obviously this debate. Did we
00:54:59
get baited into this by Israel and get
00:55:02
pushed into it and is he a Manurion
00:55:04
candidate etc. I that's above my pay
00:55:06
grade too. I I don't have any
00:55:08
information on that. I'm not in the CIA.
00:55:10
It's hard to be a an armchair critic on
00:55:13
this stuff in both senses. Like I think
00:55:15
it's hard to say, hey, this guy got
00:55:17
talked into doing this. Israel
00:55:19
manipulated him into it. You know,
00:55:20
sorry. It's easy to say that. It's also
00:55:22
easy to say, "Hey, we should go get rid
00:55:24
of the country that's made all the
00:55:25
nuclear weapons." Both of those are easy
00:55:26
to say without all of the texture of the
00:55:29
relationships and the details and what
00:55:30
really went on. None of us know is the
00:55:33
truth.
00:55:33
>> That's literally the point, you know,
00:55:35
I've been trying to make how do the same
00:55:38
thing with Venezuela. Like, how do we
00:55:40
know? We don't have any intelligence to
00:55:43
we're not in the CIA. We don't have any
00:55:45
of these insights that MSAD or the
00:55:47
Israeli intelligence services have. How
00:55:49
do we know how this was going to go
00:55:51
down? And you know, that's all going to
00:55:52
come out, I think, when this all gets
00:55:54
investigated. Yeah.
00:55:56
>> I think Trump is and has been the most
00:55:59
consistent anti-war president of modern
00:56:02
history.
00:56:03
>> Yes.
00:56:04
>> And I think that it's fair to say that
00:56:06
he has and has had and has demonstrated
00:56:10
enormous restraint and has the highest
00:56:12
bar thus far of folks for actually
00:56:15
getting into conflict. So I do think
00:56:18
that what Freeberg says is very
00:56:20
important. There's just so much we don't
00:56:21
know and I think that he doesn't want to
00:56:25
stain his legacy
00:56:28
with a typical American,
00:56:31
you know, war.
00:56:33
>> Yeah.
00:56:33
>> He doesn't want that. I don't think he
00:56:35
doesn't need to be anywhere near that.
00:56:36
So there is obviously stuff that we
00:56:39
don't know. I still think that there's
00:56:42
a short-term problem which is not just
00:56:44
the threat that Iran poses to Israel,
00:56:47
but there's a threat that Iran poses to
00:56:50
the rest of the Middle Eastern
00:56:51
community.
00:56:52
>> That neighborhood is a complicated
00:56:54
place. There was an interview that NBS
00:56:58
did on Saudi television. Nick, maybe
00:57:00
maybe you can find it. It's in Arabic,
00:57:02
but there's a good version of it that I
00:57:04
saw with subtitles.
00:57:06
And if you hear the MBS's telling of
00:57:11
what the Iranian threat is, it's not
00:57:14
dissimilar to how the Israelis would
00:57:17
characterize the threat. And so I think
00:57:20
it's important to understand that
00:57:22
unpredictable actors
00:57:25
should not be given an opportunity to
00:57:27
have a cataclysmic weapon that can just
00:57:31
completely destroy the earth as we know
00:57:34
it. That just doesn't make sense. And I
00:57:36
think if you can intervene to prevent
00:57:37
that, we're now aware of the damages of
00:57:40
what this can do to enough of a degree
00:57:42
where there should be enough of nuclear
00:57:45
disarmament from here on out.
00:57:47
>> The six, seven, eight, nine countries
00:57:49
that have it. Okay, there's all kinds of
00:57:51
reasons why maybe we could have remade
00:57:53
those decisions over the intervening 70
00:57:55
years.
00:57:56
>> Maybe there's some that we never should
00:57:57
have let have it. The Pakistan India
00:57:59
thing is a good example of one. But we
00:58:02
are where we are and I think we can all
00:58:04
agree no more country should
00:58:06
incrementally get access to this thing.
00:58:08
>> Absolutely not. And this regime
00:58:09
specifically believes that anybody who
00:58:12
is not part of this specific religion
00:58:15
needs to die and the whole
00:58:18
>> Islam needs to be reunited in order to
00:58:20
take on anybody who's not part of a
00:58:23
version of radical Islam. like it's a
00:58:25
it's a if this is a religious lunacy in
00:58:29
that country. I think everybody else
00:58:31
should be murdered if they don't
00:58:32
convert.
00:58:33
>> I think it's important to say that the
00:58:35
overwhelming majority of Sunnis and the
00:58:37
overwhelming majority of Shia are
00:58:39
peaceful observant people. There are
00:58:41
fringes in every religion and in
00:58:44
specifically this I think the most
00:58:45
important thing is to not take your word
00:58:47
or anybody else's word. I do think it's
00:58:50
important to listen to somebody like NBS
00:58:52
because I think it's the lived
00:58:53
experience of you know having to run a
00:58:56
country in that neighborhood and what it
00:58:57
means and I think what you see is as you
00:58:59
as you're articulating many layers of
00:59:03
complexity that again I think that most
00:59:05
of us in the west have zero appreciation
00:59:07
for
00:59:09
all of this goes to in the short term
00:59:13
I think that they forced themselves into
00:59:15
a corner I think we can go back and
00:59:17
relitigate Why did Obama let him out?
00:59:21
That was a really, really stupid idea.
00:59:22
We probably should have kept our thumb
00:59:24
on the scale and had them close to
00:59:28
teetering on economic insolveny. That's
00:59:31
the only thing that has kept them in
00:59:32
check. They veered wildly away the
00:59:34
minute we let them out of the
00:59:37
disarmament agreements that we had.
00:59:40
But we are where we are. We got to put
00:59:42
the genie back in the bottle. And we
00:59:44
cannot look to other countries and
00:59:47
tolerate this idea that they also want
00:59:49
to build the kinds of weapons that can
00:59:52
literally destroy the face of the planet
00:59:53
as we know it. It's a non-starter. And
00:59:55
then the second order effect is how do
00:59:58
we make sure that folks that are
01:00:02
participating in all of this broader
01:00:05
seeds of sewing chaos, how do we hem
01:00:07
them in and how do we create a more
01:00:10
reasonable world order? And I think that
01:00:12
the second order effects, and I've said
01:00:14
this before, kind of bring this back to
01:00:16
China. And I think a world where it's
01:00:18
bipolar, where it's the United States
01:00:20
and China roughly as the two leading
01:00:24
statesmen of the world, is probably the
01:00:28
Nash equilibrium here.
01:00:30
>> And so I think getting China in a
01:00:33
position where they need to do a deal.
01:00:36
And remember I said this, the worst
01:00:38
thing that could happen for China was
01:00:39
the president delaying the summit. And
01:00:42
here we are. We're now it's delayed for
01:00:44
six weeks. It's going to go into midbay.
01:00:46
If you think the straight of hormuse
01:00:48
numbers as it relates to energy prices
01:00:50
in Europe or anywhere else are crazy,
01:00:53
look at what's happening inside of China
01:00:55
right now.
01:00:57
It is a no bueno situation. And so in
01:01:01
May, if we can reestablish a set of
01:01:04
operating criteria that keeps normaly in
01:01:06
check,
01:01:08
no more of this rapid random expansion
01:01:10
everywhere where the Chinese are trying
01:01:12
to build bases in near us and you know
01:01:15
now we have to have a point of view near
01:01:17
them. We don't need any of that.
01:01:20
So I think if we can use this as an
01:01:22
opportunity to deescalate, I think we
01:01:23
should.
01:01:24
>> Yeah, that's we we seem to have moved
01:01:26
from I mean I think this is the
01:01:28
question. There's a a doctrine, I don't
01:01:30
know if you guys heard this one before,
01:01:31
of mowing the lawn, which is the
01:01:34
Israelis view of Hezbollah, Hamas, and
01:01:37
even Iran, which is just, hey, we have
01:01:39
to take away their progress, the last 30
01:01:42
or 40% of their progress towards nuclear
01:01:44
bombs, and we just do that consistently
01:01:46
and we contain them. This has tipped
01:01:48
over into regime change. And so, I think
01:01:50
that's the wild card that none of us can
01:01:52
predict what happens from this point
01:01:54
forward. I I don't know how you leave
01:01:57
Iran in this state if they're going to
01:01:59
take over the the strait uh and charge
01:02:02
everybody a dollar a barrel. Is that
01:02:03
going to be tenable? Are they going to
01:02:04
keep blowing stuff up? This is uncharted
01:02:07
territory. Um and yeah, and very high
01:02:11
stakes. President Trump also reiterated
01:02:14
the US doesn't need Middle East oil and
01:02:16
that Europeans should go straight to the
01:02:18
strait and just take it. He said that
01:02:20
the straight will open naturally because
01:02:22
quote why do we want to be able why are
01:02:25
you always focusing on the straits of
01:02:26
Hormuz Jason?
01:02:28
>> Why am I I mean you're focus on the
01:02:30
straight because you're always
01:02:32
overlooking the gays of Hormuz as an
01:02:34
example.
01:02:34
>> That's true that and the non-binaries of
01:02:36
Hormuz they all count.
01:02:38
>> Well, why is it all about the straits of
01:02:39
Hormuz all the time? Listen, it's I
01:02:41
don't want to get cancelled here because
01:02:43
I'm talking I don't know the pronouns to
01:02:45
use for these straits hormuz. But yes,
01:02:48
the straits in Hormude. I don't think
01:02:50
you're allowed to be gay in Hormuz. I
01:02:52
think you have to keep that pretty quiet
01:02:53
there, don't you? That was the greatest
01:02:54
clip ever. If you don't know what we're
01:02:56
referring to, it's a viral clip of
01:02:58
>> It's incredible
01:02:59
>> of purple-haired people. No, not purple.
01:03:02
This was a young Indian lady.
01:03:05
>> Uh, and she we all thought the same
01:03:07
thing. Indians are so smart. How? What
01:03:09
happened to her? What happened? She's
01:03:12
the They found an Indian who didn't
01:03:15
understand
01:03:16
>> the one They found the one dumb Indian.
01:03:19
Yes, exactly.
01:03:21
>> Oh god. It's
01:03:22
>> They found her.
01:03:24
>> They found her. This is She's been
01:03:26
absolutely I mean,
01:03:27
>> isn't it a little bit homophobic that
01:03:29
was so focused on the straits of her
01:03:32
moose and not the gays of her moves?
01:03:34
>> I agree. Yes, for sure.
01:03:35
>> Why do you think are willing to leave
01:03:36
the gays of her moves behind?
01:03:39
I think it's just um history.
01:03:41
>> Which Ivy League do you think she went
01:03:43
to? Brown. 100%. Brown or Columbia?
01:03:46
>> Oh yeah, that's that's a good call. I
01:03:47
would say Colombia. She Yeah, she might
01:03:50
have gone to Vasser actually. I think
01:03:51
that would might have been her safety
01:03:52
school. That's the best
01:03:56
>> not Bora not Borat. Um Bruno
01:03:58
impersonation I've heard in a long time.
01:04:00
Saw Freebug. Why are you so gay? Do you
01:04:03
think the shreds of horm are you are you
01:04:06
making your potatoes non-binary?
01:04:09
It was like literally Zabuno.
01:04:14
You got 10 minutes. Jamath, you want to
01:04:16
do your uh Bitcoin thing or you want to
01:04:17
just break? The Bitcoin thing was
01:04:19
interesting because I think in the last
01:04:21
couple of
01:04:23
months, what we've started to see is an
01:04:25
increasing amount of research that says
01:04:29
that
01:04:31
the scheduled eventuality
01:04:35
of a quantum chip, a functional chip,
01:04:40
is probably not 25 or 30 years away.
01:04:44
It's probably now in the next five to
01:04:47
seven years if I had to guess.
01:04:50
>> And I think that because that event
01:04:52
horizon has moved in in these next 5 to
01:04:56
seven years for those that follow
01:04:58
Bitcoin and care about it. My only
01:05:01
advice on this topic is that the leaders
01:05:03
of the Bitcoin ecosystem
01:05:06
need to organize themselves and need to
01:05:09
make sure that they have an answer to
01:05:10
the question of is this stuff quantum
01:05:13
resistant? Because if the answer is no,
01:05:15
they are a very visible and obvious
01:05:17
honeypot.
01:05:19
Now there is the answer that then a lot
01:05:21
of the Bitcoin community gives which is
01:05:23
well everything is screwed.
01:05:26
And my only advice is possibly, but if a
01:05:29
non-state actor gets a hold of quantum
01:05:32
technology that can defeat crypto as we
01:05:35
know it today,
01:05:37
SHA 256, you know, ECDS, like the
01:05:40
elliptical curve stuff, the
01:05:41
run-of-the-mill stuff that we all rely
01:05:42
on,
01:05:44
a non-state actor's incentive will first
01:05:47
be to drain the obvious honeypotss and
01:05:50
then tell everybody that it's broken so
01:05:52
that then everything goes to sh, all the
01:05:54
prices go to zero, and then they have
01:05:55
all the money and then they can buy
01:05:56
stuff. That would be the sequence of
01:05:58
events if you were a non-state actor.
01:06:00
So, yes, you're right. The banks get
01:06:02
hacked. Yes, you're right. All this
01:06:03
other stuff goes kaput.
01:06:06
But I think you first go and you exploit
01:06:09
the obvious places. And I think crypto
01:06:11
is the most obvious honeypot in a world
01:06:13
where you can defeat encryption. Now, in
01:06:16
fairness, the crypto community, this was
01:06:19
much, much earlier, had to deal with
01:06:20
this. They had to migrate from different
01:06:22
encryption schemes in the early parts of
01:06:24
Bitcoin and they were able to
01:06:26
self-organize.
01:06:28
The difficulty here is you're talking
01:06:29
about a big technological lift. You're
01:06:31
talking about all the wallets being
01:06:33
rearchitected. You're talking about all
01:06:34
the transactional flows, all the
01:06:36
processing nodes. These are complicated
01:06:37
things that need to happen. And I would
01:06:40
just tell the crypto community, you have
01:06:42
5 to seven years to get your [ __ ] in
01:06:44
order.
01:06:45
>> That's it. Freeberg, quantum computing,
01:06:48
just generally speaking, you feel it's
01:06:50
going to have a major impact in the
01:06:52
short term. Do you think it's actually
01:06:54
going to become viable in the midterm?
01:06:58
Where do you think about it? Because
01:06:59
it's always been 10 years out, but it
01:07:02
feels like we're making some progress.
01:07:04
>> Yeah, there's a lot that's changed. I
01:07:05
mean, so the the primary mechanism of
01:07:09
modern encryption standards uh relates
01:07:11
to factoring primes of an integer.
01:07:15
discovering the prime factors of an
01:07:17
integer would give you the ability to
01:07:19
theoretically crack
01:07:22
encryption. There was an algorithm that
01:07:24
was theorized by a guy named Peter
01:07:25
Shore. I think I talked about this on a
01:07:27
prior episode back in 1994 called
01:07:29
Shore's algorithm today. It's kind of
01:07:30
the commonly well-known model for how
01:07:33
you could do this. And it's a you could
01:07:35
watch a YouTube video on it. There's
01:07:36
some YouTube videos that explain it
01:07:37
pretty clearly. Takes a bit of time to
01:07:40
understand it. And then a couple years
01:07:42
ago, I think in 2023, there was another
01:07:45
computer scientist named Oded Regv
01:07:49
from NYU who published another paper
01:07:52
that showed a faster different approach
01:07:55
to Shor's algorithm. It was an
01:07:56
improvement on Shor's algorithm that
01:07:58
basically reduced the number of quantum
01:08:00
operations required to factor a large
01:08:03
integer significantly. So there's kind
01:08:06
of
01:08:06
>> Yeah, we sorry, we went from 28 million
01:08:08
of those operations down to 500,000.
01:08:11
Yeah. And so there's this a lot of work
01:08:13
going on right now even before we have
01:08:15
industrial scale quantum computers. A
01:08:19
lot of work going on in quantum
01:08:21
computing theory and building models and
01:08:23
algorithms and a lot of this is rooted
01:08:25
in in pure mathematics and statistics
01:08:27
and whatnot. That work is making
01:08:29
progress and building better algorithms
01:08:31
even before the compute comes online.
01:08:33
And then there's this separate set of
01:08:34
things that you can track. But you know
01:08:37
the market if you want to trust the
01:08:39
market is betting that we are within
01:08:42
spitting distance of quantum computers
01:08:44
reaching an industrial scale at this
01:08:46
moment. So those two things intersect at
01:08:48
some moment in the near term where you
01:08:50
have algorithms that are low demand, low
01:08:53
latency that can crack modern encryption
01:08:56
standards and then the computing comes
01:08:58
online and someone is going to execute.
01:09:02
The the real thing is what do you do
01:09:03
about it? There's a whole bunch of
01:09:06
research that's been going on for 20
01:09:07
plus years on quantum algorithms,
01:09:09
quantum encryption standards. And so the
01:09:12
to Chimat's point, these things exist.
01:09:15
It's just a heavy lift and so there's
01:09:17
going to be this heavy lift probably,
01:09:19
you know, pretty good business to be
01:09:21
made in the next couple of years and uh
01:09:23
all of the changes are going to need to
01:09:25
happen across all encryption standards
01:09:26
across the whole internet across how we
01:09:28
do communications and so on. In a crazy
01:09:30
way, Freeberg, crypto is in the same
01:09:32
place as all these software socks.
01:09:33
Meaning, if AGI and ASI are real, these
01:09:37
software companies are not what we
01:09:38
thought they were.
01:09:39
>> Yeah.
01:09:40
>> If Quantum is real, a bunch of these
01:09:42
crypto projects are not what we thought
01:09:43
they were. And so you can't have both,
01:09:46
guys. You got to choose.
01:09:48
>> Pick one.
01:09:50
>> Yeah.
01:09:51
>> All right, everybody. This is Ben.
01:09:53
>> Oh, hey. We listen. Um, you know, I have
01:09:55
an incredible EA
01:09:57
>> executive assistant.
01:10:00
>> It's really been like, you know,
01:10:01
everybody talks about like agents,
01:10:02
agents, agents, agents, and this was the
01:10:06
pre- agent agent.
01:10:08
You know, my my EAS averaged around
01:10:12
188 to 200k a year and then
01:10:15
>> people right now their heads are
01:10:16
exploding in middle America.
01:10:18
>> Let's tell the truth. I was paying 188
01:10:20
to $200,000 a year. They were wonderful.
01:10:22
Okay.
01:10:22
>> Right.
01:10:24
>> And then I Jason was like, "Try this.
01:10:26
Try this thing called Athena." Athena.
01:10:28
Athena. I'm like, "What is it?" So, I
01:10:29
called the guys and they're like, "Yeah,
01:10:30
we have these really well-trained folks.
01:10:33
They're like geniuses that work in the
01:10:36
Philippines. It's 3,000 a month and
01:10:38
we're building all this tooling and so
01:10:40
as all these agents get better and all
01:10:42
these AIs get better, they'll get the
01:10:43
advantage of that. I said, "Okay, I'll
01:10:44
give it a try." This is the first time
01:10:47
I've had a male assistant. His name is
01:10:48
Lei. Lay's fabulous. He's a math grad,
01:10:51
math and computer science in the
01:10:53
Philippines.
01:10:54
>> Okay.
01:10:55
>> And he's excellent. I love Lei, too. Uh,
01:10:59
somebody just put it in the chat. I love
01:11:00
Le from Nick. Yeah, Nick. Nick, you love
01:11:02
>> Lay coming to NBC this fall.
01:11:04
>> These guys are incredible. They do
01:11:06
everything for me. It's like the most
01:11:08
incredible hack and arbitrage I've ever
01:11:11
seen. Then now then I can direct a bonus
01:11:13
delay at the end of the year, which is
01:11:14
great because then it allows me to feel
01:11:17
like I'm giving him really, you know,
01:11:19
good support. He works my hours from the
01:11:22
Philippines. Have not looked back. Go
01:11:26
Athena.
01:11:27
>> Yeah, that's great.
01:11:27
>> I I I use it as well. I was the first
01:11:29
investor.
01:11:30
>> You were the first You were the How many
01:11:31
Athenas? You have one or two? I have
01:11:33
one. two for a while.
01:11:34
>> I think I made a second one
01:11:36
>> and uh then that person moved on.
01:11:39
>> You split it between like work and
01:11:41
personal or no?
01:11:42
>> Yeah, it's work and personal. As an
01:11:43
example, like there's an incredible
01:11:46
bakery where I live uh like out in
01:11:48
Dripping Springs, uh called Abby Jane
01:11:50
Bakery. They don't take orders, but
01:11:52
every Thursday, uh my Athena assistant
01:11:55
calls at 8 a.m., asks them what's on the
01:11:58
menu, cuz they change the menu every
01:11:59
week.
01:12:01
And then they send me the menu. I order
01:12:04
the bakeries.
01:12:05
>> And then he calls an Uber crier to pick
01:12:07
it up and drop it off cuz they're not on
01:12:08
Door Dash or Uber. It's just a stupid
01:12:10
example of something that made our lives
01:12:12
incredible to have the best bakery in
01:12:14
all of Austin in the house every weekend
01:12:16
for the girls and everything. And um
01:12:19
>> everyday problems. Yeah, everyday
01:12:21
problems.
01:12:21
>> Anyway, it's it's a silly example, but I
01:12:24
was having to go make that run and I did
01:12:26
it every like fourth or fifth week as a
01:12:27
treat. Now it's every week. So you just
01:12:29
look at what you're doing. The other
01:12:31
thing we're doing is they've been able
01:12:33
to
01:12:35
we we had Americans who were researchers
01:12:38
sorting through the inbound applications
01:12:40
from founders. We were able to put an
01:12:42
Athena assistant on that and then define
01:12:44
it and then we they're learning how to
01:12:46
use OpenClaw. So the Athena OpenClaw
01:12:48
merger is kind of happening in real
01:12:50
time.
01:12:51
>> Yeah. No, I have I have Lei doing a
01:12:52
bunch of advanced tasks that I typically
01:12:54
wouldn't give to my EA and then he also
01:12:57
deals with sort of just the more
01:12:58
practical day-to-day tasks, scheduling,
01:13:00
all that stuff. Anyways, it's been it's
01:13:02
been an incredible eye opening thing
01:13:03
because it sets a very good example
01:13:06
where, you know, you can be cost
01:13:08
effective and still get your work done.
01:13:10
Um, and it was really bothering me
01:13:12
actually because like the the amount of
01:13:14
cost inflation for that role because I
01:13:17
don't think I've ever needed an EA. I'll
01:13:19
just be honest, I'm going to put it out
01:13:20
there. I think I've always needed an AA
01:13:22
and I would title them differently and
01:13:25
sometimes I would call you know I' I
01:13:27
mean I've said this before but like you
01:13:28
know even like roles like chief of staff
01:13:30
they just don't make sense like the
01:13:31
chief of staff should be the second most
01:13:33
powerful person in the world because
01:13:34
they work for the president of the
01:13:35
United States.
01:13:36
>> Everybody else should not have a chief
01:13:37
of staff
01:13:38
>> in my opinion. Okay. It's um it's a
01:13:41
major unlock and the problem is we have
01:13:43
the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes
01:13:45
and it's just people don't want to take
01:13:46
the EA or the administrative assistant
01:13:49
position in America. They just don't.
01:13:50
There's they want to do something higher
01:13:53
up the stack, but the people in the
01:13:54
Philippines, you know, they do want that
01:13:56
job.
01:13:56
>> Lay is crushing. I love Lei.
01:13:59
>> R.J. is my guy. And yeah, first
01:14:01
>> Oh, you got a guy, too?
01:14:02
>> I got a guy, too. And he is also very
01:14:04
technical. Uh so anyway, shout out to
01:14:06
Athena.
01:14:07
>> Shout out to Athena. Thank you, guys.
01:14:08
Thank you. Awesome. Yeah, Freedberg, I
01:14:11
know you're making great progress. You
01:14:12
showed me some pictures of potatoes from
01:14:15
Ohio. Um, how's that going?
01:14:18
>> Shipping seed this week to farmers all
01:14:20
over North America. So, we're getting
01:14:21
going.
01:14:22
>> Are you sending seed to our friend Roger
01:14:24
the Dirt Farmer?
01:14:25
>> He is his son. Yeah, he's
01:14:27
>> That's so great.
01:14:28
>> Dirt Roger.
01:14:30
>> I love him.
01:14:31
>> Roger the dirt farmer is a phenomenal
01:14:32
poker player. He and Keading often play
01:14:34
in the game together.
01:14:36
>> How'd they do? a couple weeks ago they
01:14:37
came up and visited me the next day.
01:14:39
>> Both of those two goofballs ran over the
01:14:41
game. It's so frustrating. It's
01:14:42
frustrating playing with Keing. Roger is
01:14:44
much more
01:14:46
of a tag, you know, a tight aggressive
01:14:48
player. So, it's no picnic. There's no
01:14:50
free lunch when both of those two guys
01:14:51
are in the game. And then on top of
01:14:52
that, you know, Helm Youth [ __ ] Robbo,
01:14:55
it's like it's not a murder.
01:14:57
>> It's murderers row.
01:14:58
>> I got I made a late trip to the valley.
01:15:00
I'm like, "Hey, Chimath. Oh, Jason's in
01:15:02
town. I get to play."
01:15:03
>> Chimat's like, "Uh, I got some bad news
01:15:05
for you. you're no longer on the list
01:15:08
and I filled the game up plus two. So I
01:15:11
squeak into the game. I run up a quick
01:15:14
20 25 dimek skis and then helm youth.
01:15:17
Passive aggressive Helm Youuth who
01:15:20
cannot handle the fact that I'm more
01:15:21
famous than him now. It's just totally
01:15:23
tweaked him that Chimoth and I than you
01:15:25
Ray Burke are so much more famous than
01:15:27
him. He's broken his brain. He's like,
01:15:31
"Uh, okay. Uh, car dealer. car dealer.
01:15:34
You're supposed to have a seat and Jay
01:15:35
Cal doesn't. And I literally just
01:15:37
doubled up at that point. Jamal's like,
01:15:39
"Okay, I guess you could book the win,
01:15:41
Jay. Cal," because, you know, it's like
01:15:42
poor taste to double up and then leave.
01:15:44
>> How much did you win? 40, 50k?
01:15:46
>> It was only like 25 times. It was, you
01:15:47
know, it's like I used my Yeah.
01:15:50
>> Hey, Chimath, we're here at the end of
01:15:52
the show. I just wanted to make sure
01:15:54
people know that the liquidity event
01:15:56
that we're hosting, uh, you can go to
01:15:58
allin.com/events, has sold out and we've
01:16:00
started a wait list. So, this is the
01:16:02
quickest we've ever sold out.
01:16:04
>> I asked Kimber and Lisa to try to find
01:16:07
another 100 seats. I think there's like
01:16:09
$7.7 trillion
01:16:12
of money that want to attend. We can't
01:16:16
get everybody in. So, we're trying to
01:16:17
get everybody together. We announced
01:16:19
Bill Aman and Andre Carpathy last week.
01:16:21
>> Incredible.
01:16:22
>> We're going to do an Irisone like pitch
01:16:24
competition. There's like four whisbang
01:16:28
hot
01:16:29
>> fun. Explain what that is for folks who
01:16:31
don't know. Yeah,
01:16:31
>> I know a bunch of these guys, but four
01:16:33
of them in particular are running super
01:16:35
hot right now. Like
01:16:37
taking 50 million, run it up to a
01:16:39
billion to three billion. They're just
01:16:41
ripping. And uh they're going to go on
01:16:44
stage and they're going to give us their
01:16:45
best ideas pitch and the three of us
01:16:47
plus I think as many of the guests that
01:16:50
can do it,
01:16:52
we'll vote and then maybe we can even
01:16:53
publish these ideas so that folks can
01:16:55
can try to follow them.
01:16:57
>> They can vet them, right? It's like a
01:16:59
really brave thing to do to get on stage
01:17:01
and say, "Hey, I'm making this bet."
01:17:02
Like that's like
01:17:02
>> that was great. I did it four times.
01:17:04
>> I mean, I just spanked it, but
01:17:07
>> hopefully these guys can do the same
01:17:08
thing. But listen, we have a natural
01:17:10
resources pitch. We have something in
01:17:11
healthcare. We have something in tech.
01:17:13
We have something in
01:17:14
>> genius.
01:17:14
>> It's great. It's like all the big
01:17:16
categories. We have something in crypto.
01:17:17
So, it's you're going to get every shade
01:17:19
of every whippy big
01:17:24
alpha market. By the way, you created a
01:17:26
bit of a storm on the interwebs with
01:17:28
your towel mention in the uh uh Jensen
01:17:31
interview.
01:17:32
>> I just asked Jensen a question. I'm not
01:17:33
long towel. He'd redirected it to
01:17:35
something which is folding at home,
01:17:37
which is I think if you don't know it,
01:17:38
you should look it up, but it's how you
01:17:40
can allocate compute to helping solve
01:17:41
health problems. The point is these open
01:17:43
source projects or these distributed
01:17:45
compute projects are the future. The
01:17:48
real question is what is the
01:17:49
architecture and the incentives? None of
01:17:50
us knows that.
01:17:52
>> Yeah.
01:17:52
>> But man, I think it's so important. And
01:17:54
then all these goons
01:17:55
>> went crazy.
01:17:56
>> Went crazy.
01:17:58
>> Well, I mean, the reason is because I
01:18:00
did place a bet on TA like a couple of
01:18:03
weeks ago. I went public with hey, yeah,
01:18:04
I've got a small bet here because I
01:18:06
think these subnetss are fascinating.
01:18:09
>> You're not I mean, it's like I might be
01:18:11
five or $600,000. A tiny bet.
01:18:14
>> You're syndicate maxing.
01:18:15
>> No, I did it myself. I did it myself. I
01:18:17
made a small bet on T because I watched
01:18:20
Exactly. What
01:18:21
>> this [ __ ] is syndicate maxing? I'm
01:18:23
it's not I'm not [ __ ] maxing here, but
01:18:25
I am certainly not doing any
01:18:27
introspection. I am just doing deals on
01:18:30
great founders and companies.
01:18:31
>> Andre has been rage tweeting about this
01:18:34
guy that he watches
01:18:36
>> a genius
01:18:36
>> who posts these videos about [ __ ]
01:18:38
maxing.
01:18:39
>> Yes,
01:18:39
>> I watched the videos. It's incredible.
01:18:42
This guy, what is the guy's name? I
01:18:43
don't know what the hell.
01:18:44
>> I don't know. But he goes on his back
01:18:45
deck. He's got a Weber grill. Pops out a
01:18:48
cigar and he says, "Listen, it doesn't
01:18:50
matter." That may be the most incredible
01:18:52
contribution.
01:18:54
>> That's the most incredible contribution
01:18:55
Andre may be making to culture and
01:18:57
society in America. Not the browser.
01:18:59
>> He found this guy. I encourage you,
01:19:01
Nick, find the video, post the links.
01:19:04
This guy is incredible
01:19:06
>> because you're overthinking it, folks.
01:19:08
Just enjoy your life and work hard and
01:19:12
don't think it through because look what
01:19:14
happened to Freeberg. He started
01:19:16
ruminating.
01:19:17
>> Love you, boys.
01:19:18
>> Don't ruminate. Just go sell software
01:19:20
and go make better potatoes. Freeberg,
01:19:22
no more ruminating and therapy for you.
01:19:24
Freeberg, come on the program anytime.
01:19:26
Mark and
01:19:27
>> [ __ ] Max with us here on the Allin.
01:19:30
>> Love you boys. Bye now.
01:19:33
>> We'll let
01:19:36
David
01:19:40
>> We open source it to the fans and
01:19:42
they've just gone crazy with it.
01:19:44
>> Love you. Queen of
01:19:53
Besties are gone.
01:19:55
>> That is my dog taking notice your
01:19:57
driveway.
01:20:00
>> Oh man, my appetiter will meet you.
01:20:03
>> We should all just get a room and just
01:20:04
have one big huge orgy cuz they're all
01:20:06
just useless.
01:20:07
>> It's like this like sexual tension that
01:20:09
they just need to release somehow.
01:20:11
>> Wet your feet. Wet your feet.
01:20:14
>> Your feet.
01:20:16
>> That's going to be good. We need to get
01:20:17
Mercury's already.
01:20:26
I'm going all in.
