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What are your thoughts here on the
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flurry of potential IPOs?
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>> I think that we have a bit of a risk
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problem. If you think about appetite as
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equivalent to like a person at a
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Thanksgiving dinner, when you first come
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in and you see all of this stuff, it's
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so plentiful. Your eyes are bigger than
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your stomach. And I think in a moment
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like that, you want to be the one that
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is consumed first. And I think the risk
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increases when you are at the tail end
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because the risk is that the diners will
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run out of space. And if you use that
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fills up Yeah.
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>> And if you use that analogy, I think the
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reason why people's plates will get full
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are probably twofold and maybe
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three-fold. The first and most important
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thing is there's enough tactical event
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risk that people generally want to be
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risk off and have more margin of safety.
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We have a lot of these really important
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financial moments tied to this concept
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of AGI ASI. We have a real pricing
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problem. If AGI is real, the durability
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of most companies is slim to none. If
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AGI is not real, then the fundraising
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capacity of these companies that are now
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raising hundreds of billions of dollars
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needs to get questioned and inspected
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thoroughly. History will sort out which
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one is right. But both cannot be right.
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So in that vein, I actually think Jal, I
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don't think we're going to have like
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these quote unquote blockbuster stream
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of IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX
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is going to get out. They're going to do
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great and then maybe the next one does
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good to great. then the next one will do
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good and then the appetite runs out
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because you just can't absorb
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incrementally trillions of dollars of
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new demand. And if you think about it,
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where is it going to come from? Is it
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going to come from the sidelines? I
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don't know. I think it's more of a
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reallocation exercise. But if you look
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at the S&P, well, most people are now
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defensively moving away from these kinds
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of things towards the things that are
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more protected, what the industry calls
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halo, right? Those things trade for zero
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today, Jason. You could buy hundreds of
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millions of dollars of year of cash flow
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for two to five times right now in the
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stock market. And so why are you going
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to go way out on the risk curve and buy
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something at 200 times revs, let alone
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earnings? I'm more in the camp of I
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think it's good to be first. It's pretty
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decent to be second, but if I were you,
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I would get the heck out and get public
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and get your money and fortify your
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balance sheet ASAP because I think the
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risk builds the further down the IPO
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chain you're
