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hey everybody welcome back to the Allin
00:00:03
podcast with us again today yawning from
00:00:08
Milan your favorite the chairman
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dictator chamath poopaa you look a
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little tired my friend how you doing
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over there buddy I left Monday I flew to
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Singapore I was on the ground for two
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days and I flew here I'm here for two
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days and then I go to London for five
00:00:29
days
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I'm you are on a worldwind tour I mean
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I'm Bas I'm flying around the world
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literally flying around the world moving
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West man right I'm tired and this is all
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service I mean at our age you feel it it
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hits differently when you when you pass
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40 and I'm assuming this is 8090
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business we out there selling you're
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selling you're selling grock you're
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selling 8090 you're out there doing BD
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little selling little closing and then
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I'm speaking at the Oxford Union on
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Wednesday okay okay well that sounds
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fancy check in The Bucket List oh okay
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there you have it and in his camo hat
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and in his election Afterglow look at
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the glow he is in that Afterglow he is
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post quitus here post election anybody
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got a cigarette I need to I need to
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light up a cigarette
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that was a close one I didn't think I
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was going to make it but you did do you
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like my C hat Jal this is this is a hat
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well it says Trump F you look like we
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fud what does it say you're hunting
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lives no remember remember when uh Tim
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Waltz rolled out the camo hat yes and
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you said it was going to win the
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election for Harris it might it might I
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thought that he might have a shot yes
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yeah I was wrong about that one be belly
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belly quiet we got all the camo guys
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they voted for us hunting Wibble
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nobody's going to get this uh but it's
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very good it looks good on is that Elmer
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fud that's Elmer fud be belly belly
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quiet we're hunting wibbles that sounds
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like Mike Tyson well I'm gonna mess up
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that Jake Paul how about I wear a
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different Trump hat every week for the
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next four years absolutely fantastic I
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mean the ratings on this show good ones
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I mean all I care about at this point
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I'm getting Savage in any way possible
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all I care about is ratings now let's go
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you're fine Maga
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get in the comments let's get these
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ratings up and with us of course the CEO
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of ohalo
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ohalo David freeberg how you doing there
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little buddy thanks for having me again
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J thank you all right
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well it's good to be here yeah how you
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doing I'm chilling man you know just
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nice to the executive producer to have
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you on the show yes I've been producing
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you here well it's uh you know always
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I'm always thinking about your best
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interest I was hearing a little I I
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heard you on a phone call before you
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said you had a perfect body what was
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that in reference to makes me go yeah
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she makes me go to the dermatologist
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where they she examines your whole nude
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body to look for moles so this morning I
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went in early to the dermatologist she
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examined it she said perfect I said does
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she have to wear sunglasses because
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you're just so white like it just like
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it's blindingly white she or woman did
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she get Hazard pay the poor that poor
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dermatologist my God she's like she's
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like thank you for the experience this
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is why we need to uh in all seriousness
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this is why Sachs we have to legalize
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psychedelics this poor woman has PTSD
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after that we need to get get out of
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here get out of here it was a wonderful
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examination she was thrilled I mean
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right okay and uh of course I'm Jason
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kakanis and uh you know there's been a
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lot of scuttlebutt sacks I don't know if
00:03:53
you know this but uh comedy might still
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be legal here on the all in podcast but
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there's been a lot of scuttlebut a lot
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of debate lot of energy dare I say
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around are we gonna break the rules
00:04:03
today finally I don't know we'll see
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anything's possible people get a little
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sensitive sometimes with the com do I
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have to put my pronouns back in my zoom
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chat put your pronouns back in shabath
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paapa douche back uh here we
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go you you you might not know this but a
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lot of appointments are being made sax
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did you know this are you aware that the
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appointments are being made I'm aware
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yeah it's happening you have SE you've
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seen the flow of them well I got a dump
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I'm not going to say who sent these to
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me but I actually got the next five or
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six announcement that Trump's going to
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make I'm not gonna say who gave it this
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is gonna this bit has the potential to
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be so good I'm so tired but you've got
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me awake I'm I'm awake too ready well
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here's our first one here's our first
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one this is a very interesting one yeah
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here it is this is a statement from
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Donald J trump it is my great honor to
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announce that Hunter Biden of Delaware
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will head a new the Bureau of founder
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mode procurement founder mode
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procurement you notice saak dropped off
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he doesn't want to uh have a reaction
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shot here uh next one up this is
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interesting Tony henchcliffe I don't
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know if you know him he has been
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appointed into a new role he's the
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ambassador to Puerto Rico Cham
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he's that's a good one chamath actually
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uh your wish has come true you are now
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your sole duty is to ensure all
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executive branch knitwear is on point
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the sweater inspector General
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everybody's going to have perfect Nar
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knitwear absolutely knitwear and uh I by
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the way just so you know that's a that's
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a lurana Kashmir sweater in that picture
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apparently apparently I'm actually
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decided I would flip I've gone full Maga
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here I am I have been appointed as Chief
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virtue signaler that I like that I like
00:05:49
every time podcast you're GNA be uh
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you're gonna have stiff competition from
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Mark cuan for that for that post I know
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I beat him out I beat him
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out yeah yeah I went down to he deleted
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he deleted all of his proa tweets have
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you done the same uh no no I haven't yet
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you're going have to work on that you
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get look at the Lusty eyes in this
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picture yeah I know it's pretty great
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that's it really you you have there you
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have not found a virtue you didn't want
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to just burrow yourself absolutely not
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absolutely not hey freeberg you've been
00:06:21
appointed here we go uh as Bobby
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Kennedy's Whipping Boy and you will be
00:06:26
officially his little uh anything
00:06:29
any Innovation you come up with is
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officially blocked and here he is my
00:06:35
great honor to announce David Sachs is
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now the chief retribution officer
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congratulations well
00:06:41
done retribution must be had J Cal
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payback is a there were a lot of
00:06:47
people who are out of line just a little
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bit a little bit they deserve to get
00:06:51
smacked around a little bit just On's
00:06:53
goingon to get his shoe shine box just
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on a little bit just a little
00:06:57
bit let your winners ride
00:07:01
Rainman
00:07:04
David and in said we open source it to
00:07:07
the fans and they've just gone crazy
00:07:09
[Music]
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with there's been a lot of talk about a
00:07:16
holiday party free BR you want to give
00:07:17
us an update on the holiday party quick
00:07:19
plug on the party so the party is coming
00:07:21
up in three weeks the all-in Holiday
00:07:23
Spectacular Steve Aoki Andrea bz Gary
00:07:27
Richards AKA Destructo are gonna be
00:07:30
DJing several I'm doing a secret DJ
00:07:35
set I may it's actually good idea beat
00:07:39
we will have chess challenges with Alex
00:07:42
botes several sections are sold out VIP
00:07:44
is sold out uh draymond's joining us
00:07:47
Draymond Green from the Warriors he's
00:07:49
gonna come and do a little bit with us
00:07:51
on stage it'd be great he's great so
00:07:53
should be great get your tickets at
00:07:55
allin.com events all right let's get
00:07:58
into it everybody I just want to start
00:08:00
with a a little bit of Finance here
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Bitcoin and Finance stocks way up since
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the Trump win which was now 10 days ago
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uh Bitcoin peaked at
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92,000 unbelievable it's dropped down to
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89 but obviously that's an alltime high
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and as we all know we talked about it on
00:08:22
the show Trump heavily heavily coed the
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crypto industry during his campaign in
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addition to the bitcoin news since early
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August AFF firm Robin Hood PayPal
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coinbase all up double or 50% it's an
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extraordinary run in July Trump
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headlined a Bitcoin conference he laid
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out his plans number one he was going to
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fire SEC chairman Gary Gensler here's
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the clip on day one I will fire Gary
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Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman
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this
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who I didn't know he was that
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unpopular
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fire a
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fire too bad for
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G I didn't know he was that unpopular
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let me say it
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again on day one I will fire Gary
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G whoa there it is okay enough with that
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technically president can't fire the SEC
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chair but he can appoint a new one when
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Gary's term ends in 2026 or Gary could
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resign when Trump takes office that
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happens uh sometimes and uh folks are
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speculating gansler has already made
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that decision to step down he uh put out
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a press release with a quote in it that
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a number of people took note of where he
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said it's been a great honor to serve
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with them the people who work at the SEC
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doing the people's work and ensuring our
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Capital markets Remain the best in the
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world Trump also said the federal
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government will never sell never ever
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sell its Bitcoin Holdings uh which they
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own through criminal assets as you know
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and number three he said he would create
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a Bitcoin and crypto presidential
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advisory Council where Trump said quote
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the rules will be written by people who
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love your industry not hate your
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industry and he also advocated that all
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future Bitcoins would be minted in
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America I don't know that he gets to
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make that choice but they have it
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freeberg any thoughts here
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on the crypto market and this incredible
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bull run here we've seen in the last you
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know 10 days and then before that couple
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month I mean I think like you said it's
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not limited to crypto crypto is One
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Market of several that have been
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significantly affected by the Outlook
00:10:49
based on Trump's election uh I think
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that Trump's election has a couple of
00:10:53
key features that are changing market
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dynamics one is folks kind of view some
00:10:59
of his policies to be obviously
00:11:01
stimulatory with lower tax rates and
00:11:04
more deregulation this is you know
00:11:07
theoretically going to drive up
00:11:08
investment and economic growth the
00:11:10
deregulatory nature on its own benefits
00:11:13
markets that have been encumbered by
00:11:15
regulatory oversight and Regulatory
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challenges like crypto finance and
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fintech so those types of businesses are
00:11:22
are clearly going to benefit or expected
00:11:25
to benefit significantly by being able
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to launch products more quickly and have
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Fe and ways that they can generate
00:11:30
Revenue that they might be challenged to
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do Under the current Regulatory schemas
00:11:34
and then uh there's also this element of
00:11:36
kind of things being inflationary the
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the feature of tariffs if we don't get
00:11:40
spending cut fast enough there's an
00:11:42
effect on markets so you know we're
00:11:43
still seeing 10year treasury sit at
00:11:45
about 4 and a half% up from 3 and a half
00:11:48
perc which is where we were right around
00:11:50
the rate cut beginning in September and
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remember since those rate Cuts began in
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September we've cut 75 basis
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points and uh and and we're still seeing
00:11:58
the kind of tenure treasury hold High
00:12:00
which in kind of implies that there's
00:12:02
expected to be persistent inflation in
00:12:04
fact the October inflation number
00:12:06
accelerated again so it's back up not
00:12:09
going down it's I think it went up to
00:12:11
2.6% up from 2.3% the month prior these
00:12:14
General kind of effects that are
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predicted from the Trump policy plans is
00:12:18
having an effect in different markets
00:12:20
obviously in equities we're seeing more
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kind of risk-seeking risk-taking and
00:12:24
then in the bond markets because of the
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4 and a half% treasury yield there's a
00:12:28
really in Dynamic and and I I kind of
00:12:30
sent this this link out yesterday but if
00:12:34
you look at the spread on yields between
00:12:38
us treasuries which have historically
00:12:39
been kind of considered and talked about
00:12:41
and are deemed the the risk-free rate
00:12:44
and the yield that corporates have to
00:12:48
pay to borrow money we haven't seen a
00:12:50
spread this low in 26 years so it's a
00:12:55
17-year low for the spread between the
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yield that companies that issue junk
00:13:01
bonds have to pay from treasuries and
00:13:03
it's a
00:13:04
26-year low for credit grade bonds so
00:13:07
this means the market is either more
00:13:09
risk-seeking meaning they're looking for
00:13:11
more yield and they're going into
00:13:12
corporates because they feel like there
00:13:14
is a higher probability that these
00:13:16
companies are going to be successful in
00:13:17
the future they're not going to have
00:13:18
higher default rates Etc so the market
00:13:21
is becoming much more risk-seeking
00:13:23
or the alternative is that parts of the
00:13:26
market are reassessing the risk-free
00:13:28
nature of treasuries M themselves if
00:13:30
spending doesn't get under control the
00:13:32
treasury market appetite is decreasing
00:13:34
so there's this kind of spread that's
00:13:35
shrunk in the last couple of months so
00:13:38
we're seeing Capital flooding into the
00:13:39
markets for risk-seeking assets and this
00:13:41
is obviously affecting crypto equities
00:13:43
and and bond markets all across the
00:13:45
board and we'll talk a little bit about
00:13:47
IPO and m&a later great shath your
00:13:49
thoughts aside from yum
00:13:52
yum I mean yum yum you could say it it's
00:13:56
a it's a yum it's gonna be a just say it
00:13:59
no I mean look what did I say at the
00:14:02
beginning of the year was G to be the
00:14:04
biggest risk
00:14:06
asset winning
00:14:08
trade yeah it's great bitcoin's great oh
00:14:11
my Lord I haven't seen you this
00:14:13
[Music]
00:14:17
Happ what made you more H happy getting
00:14:20
to Milan and spending time with your
00:14:21
white truffle dealer or watching Bitcoin
00:14:24
break 90k which one was more exciting
00:14:27
for you you know honestly you know what
00:14:30
I think about I actually think about all
00:14:31
the Bitcoin I
00:14:33
sold yeah you I had Bitcoin I had a
00:14:36
bunch of Bitcoin in my funds when I
00:14:39
managed outside
00:14:41
Capital you know that's a I don't know a
00:14:44
three or four billion dollar mistake in
00:14:46
growing now because my partners at the
00:14:49
time capitulated and I wanted to be a
00:14:51
good team member and we distributed and
00:14:53
it was profitable but obviously I
00:14:56
shouldn't have sold it would have made
00:14:58
them a lot more money and then I think
00:15:01
about like I bought some
00:15:03
land I remember Taho it was in the Wall
00:15:07
Street Journal I'm sure you can find it
00:15:08
but yeah how much is that worth now
00:15:12
probably couple hundred million dollars
00:15:14
maybe more rough TR R but you you do
00:15:16
have Bitcoin holding can can I ask you a
00:15:18
question why do you say sold Bitcoin as
00:15:21
opposed to converted Bitcoin into
00:15:23
Dollars like when you think about
00:15:25
Bitcoin just as as a participant do you
00:15:28
think about Bitcoin as a dollar
00:15:30
denominated asset that you go and buy
00:15:32
Bitcoin and then you're eventually going
00:15:33
to sell it turn it back into dollars and
00:15:34
use the dollars or are you like what do
00:15:36
you think about the purest kind of idea
00:15:38
that Bitcoin should be the deao currency
00:15:41
and store of value in the future and the
00:15:43
dollar doesn't matter and we shouldn't
00:15:45
necessarily be talking about the the
00:15:46
value of Bitcoin in dollar denominated
00:15:48
terms as something I'm going to
00:15:49
eventually turn it back into it hasn't
00:15:51
happened yet and so until it happens I
00:15:53
think you have to view it as like a very
00:15:56
good gold proxy
00:15:59
but it's a
00:16:05
largely dollar denominated asset now why
00:16:08
do you see it going the other way like
00:16:10
so a lot of folks thought that as a safe
00:16:12
haven it should do well when there's a
00:16:14
negative economic Outlook but it has
00:16:17
traded the last couple of years kind of
00:16:19
totally correlated no it's tot it's a
00:16:21
totally correlated asset I mean yeah
00:16:24
there will be a
00:16:26
point and it's probably an hour lifetime
00:16:30
where it is an
00:16:32
independent asset and a non-speculative
00:16:35
store of value there will be that day
00:16:39
but that day is not now and I think it's
00:16:41
very important to see the conditions on
00:16:43
the field as they are versus what you
00:16:45
wish it to be and and the reason is that
00:16:49
it allows you to risk manage more
00:16:51
appropriately because if you don't see
00:16:53
it then when something happens to the
00:16:56
dollar complex good or bad or when
00:16:59
something happens to rates good or bad
00:17:01
or when something stimulative happens
00:17:03
good or bad you're not going to react
00:17:06
properly if you're in the business of
00:17:07
managing it as a risk asset so if you're
00:17:10
in the set it and forget it bucket and
00:17:12
there are some
00:17:14
people I think it's great none of these
00:17:16
conversations matter but like most
00:17:18
people you're probably going to be
00:17:21
motivated to do
00:17:23
something and I think if you're
00:17:25
motivated to do something or you have
00:17:28
filo that stimulates you to do something
00:17:30
whatever the psychology is that leads
00:17:31
you to action it's probably important to
00:17:34
just view things as they really are
00:17:37
versus how you wish them to be and so I
00:17:40
think the purists may eventually be
00:17:42
right I think they will be right at some
00:17:43
point in my lifetime but they're not
00:17:45
right now and that's why these things
00:17:48
are correlated and youly the other the
00:17:51
other thing I'll say just broadly about
00:17:53
the market is I think that there's a
00:17:55
tremendous amount of optimism about the
00:17:57
economy I think that's why you see risk
00:17:59
spreads get crushed definitely yeah yeah
00:18:02
and I think that as long as we see the
00:18:04
kind of prognostications that the Trump
00:18:07
Administration is putting
00:18:09
out I think people are going to be
00:18:11
mostly bullish I think the way that this
00:18:14
trade turns around is when something
00:18:18
actually breaks in terms of the
00:18:21
inflation picture or in terms of the
00:18:23
deficit picture and if those things look
00:18:26
like going into 2025
00:18:29
that President Trump's actions are not
00:18:32
going to be able to course correct it
00:18:33
then I think you're going to see people
00:18:35
go massively risk off which I think will
00:18:38
not be great for markets obviously but
00:18:40
right now we're not in that point and
00:18:42
you don't think the tenure reflects that
00:18:44
already at 4 and a half% I mean that's
00:18:46
showing some degree of inflation and
00:18:49
concern about the
00:18:51
deficit right it's like I think I think
00:18:54
the tenure could be at
00:18:56
7% yeah
00:18:59
what does 4 and a half% mean I mean if
00:19:01
you're if you're going to run
00:19:02
8% of GDP level deficits for the next
00:19:06
four or five or six years
00:19:09
yeah you're going to have the tenure at
00:19:12
seven to %. that's just mathematical
00:19:16
right sax your thoughts on uh crypto
00:19:19
before we get into IPOs and m&a if any
00:19:22
yeah just on crypto the House
00:19:24
Republicans already passed a framework
00:19:26
for crypto regulation earlier this year
00:19:28
it actually got 71 Democrats to to join
00:19:31
it it was called the financial
00:19:33
Innovation and technology for the 21st
00:19:35
century act or fit
00:19:37
21 and it would classify digital assets
00:19:40
like crypto as Commodities regulated by
00:19:42
the cftc if the blockchain they run on
00:19:45
is is quote functional and decentralized
00:19:47
that's the key requirement if their
00:19:50
blockchain is functional but not
00:19:52
decentralized then they would be
00:19:53
considered Securities and fall under the
00:19:56
purview of the SEC I think the the
00:19:58
crypto industry basically wants a really
00:20:00
clear line for knowing when they're a
00:20:02
commodity and they want Commodities to
00:20:05
be governed governed like all other
00:20:06
Commodities by the cftc so that's what
00:20:09
the Republican bill would do I think
00:20:11
with the Republicans now winning the
00:20:12
Senate the prospects for that bill to
00:20:15
get enacted are now greatly improved
00:20:18
especially because shered Brown who used
00:20:21
to run the Banking Committee just lost
00:20:23
to Bernie Moreno this was a a seat in
00:20:27
Ohio Elizabeth is still going to object
00:20:29
to this legislation but she's just going
00:20:32
to have way less influence and like you
00:20:33
said it's not clear that Gary gendler is
00:20:36
going to be sticking around very long at
00:20:37
the SEC so look the bottom line here is
00:20:40
that I think that we are close to having
00:20:42
clear rules of the road codified by
00:20:45
Congress which is what the crypto
00:20:46
industry's been asking for and the days
00:20:49
of gendler terrorizing crypto companies
00:20:51
by issuing Wells notices without
00:20:54
clarifying what the rules are that he's
00:20:56
in Prosecuting those days are about to
00:20:58
be over over so I think this is why the
00:20:59
crypto markets are
00:21:02
rallying and so to your point if it's
00:21:05
centralized or partially centralized
00:21:08
you're going to be a security if you're
00:21:10
decentralized anybody can join the
00:21:12
network no one person controls the
00:21:14
network and I guess most people would
00:21:16
consider that Bitcoin versus say Ripple
00:21:18
which is partially decentralized but
00:21:20
largely centralized and that's going to
00:21:22
be I guess the new rules of the road in
00:21:25
addition to that there are new rules
00:21:27
that are being fored that hopefully
00:21:30
Trump fit 21 passes right this bill is
00:21:33
called fit 21 but I think much much
00:21:36
higher likelihood that it or something
00:21:38
like it now can get through the Congress
00:21:39
Mak sense yeah and then there's also
00:21:41
legislation that's already been enacted
00:21:44
that's there's multiple ways multiple
00:21:46
paths but accredited investors there's
00:21:49
going to be a path to becoming an
00:21:51
accredited investor with a test so that
00:21:53
is something that is also on the docket
00:21:55
we'll see if it happens let's talk about
00:21:56
IPOs and m&a yum yumo
00:21:59
is just a level set here with the
00:22:02
audience here's the number of IPOs per
00:22:05
year and as you can see the last three
00:22:08
years have been some of the
00:22:10
lowest since 2008 and 2009 the Great
00:22:13
Recession for those of you who are old
00:22:15
enough to remember it and if you look at
00:22:19
VC the number of
00:22:22
distributions have been absolutely on
00:22:25
the floor for the past three years in
00:22:26
fact if you look at the distributions
00:22:28
from 2022 through 2024 those three years
00:22:31
combined it's been around 200 billion
00:22:34
Which is less than 2019 in total and uh
00:22:38
with this year projected to be about a
00:22:40
100 billion in distributions that's
00:22:43
about 14% of the peak Zer era when in
00:22:47
2021 we had
00:22:49
710 billion do in
00:22:51
distribution here so the back room Buzz
00:22:56
is that Donnie from Queens is going to
00:22:58
make m&a great again couple of reasons
00:23:01
there Sachs the wrath of Lena KH coming
00:23:03
to an end Max Heaven sitting on massive
00:23:07
amounts of cash and that cash is growing
00:23:09
as people have laid people off and
00:23:11
they're focused on getting fit obviously
00:23:14
we all know the FED did another quarter
00:23:16
point cut last week although some people
00:23:19
maybe don't know that because it seems
00:23:20
to have gotten lost in the election news
00:23:23
and psychologically I think everybody's
00:23:26
feeling very optimistic so maybe these
00:23:28
IPOs are back on the menu chath I don't
00:23:30
know if you saw it but clar just filed
00:23:32
for their IPO that's a Swedish fintech
00:23:35
company they were kind of the Pioneers
00:23:36
in buy now pay later what are the other
00:23:39
IPOs we could see file in 2025 data
00:23:42
brick stripe whiz canva plaid Rippling
00:23:46
and air table there's a long shot that
00:23:49
people have been buzzing about I don't
00:23:50
have any inside information but people
00:23:52
have been speculating SpaceX could IPO
00:23:55
starlink their starlink unit and if you
00:23:57
want to get really crazy jth maybe
00:24:00
there's a long shot that Sam Alman jumps
00:24:02
the fence and decides he's going to take
00:24:03
open AI public during this window that
00:24:06
people expect to be opening what do you
00:24:08
think choth what's going to happen here
00:24:09
in terms of m&a and IPOs in
00:24:13
2025 I think it's going to still be
00:24:15
pretty
00:24:16
subdued subed okay I don't I don't think
00:24:19
that you're going to see
00:24:21
these crazy m&a deals that I think
00:24:25
everybody is expecting
00:24:28
I also don't
00:24:31
anticipate a lot of these big companies
00:24:34
going
00:24:35
public at least in the first half of the
00:24:37
year and the only reason I say that is I
00:24:39
just think
00:24:41
that like this year and the first half
00:24:44
of next
00:24:45
year what's the difference the IPO
00:24:47
Market is what the IPO Market is and if
00:24:49
the 10e is back to you know four and a
00:24:52
half 5% that's not a compelling strategy
00:24:54
for some SAS
00:24:56
company or some internet business
00:24:59
that didn't take an opportunity to go
00:25:01
public when rates were at zero so if you
00:25:05
just look mathematically at what the
00:25:07
actual fair value of these companies
00:25:09
should be I don't know it's not like
00:25:12
such a great IPO market then on the m&a
00:25:14
side if all you're doing is waiting for
00:25:17
Lena Khan to not be there to me I think
00:25:21
that that betrays what m&a is supposed
00:25:23
to be which is you're supposed to
00:25:25
underwrite some industrial logic from
00:25:27
first principles where things are very
00:25:30
accretive and very accretive
00:25:33
things should not hang by a thread on
00:25:36
the
00:25:37
emotional regulation or disregulation of
00:25:40
the FTC commissioner so I kind of think
00:25:44
that you would have seen some of this
00:25:45
stuff already as well if if the
00:25:47
industrial logic was so high and again
00:25:50
when rates are non-trivially high I just
00:25:52
think that it's not the easiest thing in
00:25:54
the world to pull off like a really big
00:25:55
m&a event nor is it a really easy thing
00:25:58
to off to pull off a huge IPO when again
00:26:01
there's a reason why Warren Buffett has
00:26:03
$325 billion sitting in t- bills making
00:26:07
4 and a half% a year he owns more t-
00:26:09
bills than the United States government
00:26:11
he's making about $15 billion dollar a
00:26:13
year in interest when you can do that
00:26:16
with absolutely no
00:26:18
risk again relative to stocks at least
00:26:21
yeah what is this IPO going to give you
00:26:23
Jamal's right like the 10 years at 4 and
00:26:25
a half% you're basically paying 20 times
00:26:27
cash flow
00:26:28
to own a risk-free bond the US treasury
00:26:31
bond or you can pay 23 times to own a
00:26:34
totally risky asset yeah it's 30 times
00:26:37
to own the S&P 500 right now it's yeah
00:26:40
it's but but there is a lot of
00:26:41
risk-seeking Shifting happening chth
00:26:43
right so I mean we talked about like
00:26:45
some of the crypto stuff some of the
00:26:46
fintech stuff deregulation that the PE
00:26:50
might seem high today but if you forast
00:26:52
out 10 years for some of these
00:26:54
businesses in a
00:26:56
deregulated deted environment enironment
00:26:58
or reduced tax reduced regulation
00:27:01
environment that the earnings should
00:27:03
accelerate in a way that outpaces the
00:27:06
the multiple you're getting today right
00:27:07
so I mean this is part of why some of
00:27:09
the fintech companies are ripping right
00:27:11
now why some of the finance companies
00:27:12
are ripping right now if under Trump and
00:27:15
the Republican control of the House and
00:27:17
Senate laws don't pass and regulations
00:27:19
get reduced theoretically earnings are
00:27:21
going to rip and you should pay a higher
00:27:23
multiple today because you're actually
00:27:25
buying these things at 8 to 10 times
00:27:27
earnings 5 Years From now so there seems
00:27:29
to be some risk appetite there but I do
00:27:31
agree with chamat on the m&a point if
00:27:34
you think about what's gone on over the
00:27:35
last couple years hold on a second can I
00:27:37
ask you a question do you think that
00:27:39
regulation is the reason why these SAS
00:27:40
companies have never made a dollar of
00:27:42
profit no no I'm not talking about SAS
00:27:45
I'm not talking about SAS I'm talking I
00:27:46
guess we then you're talking about
00:27:48
industrial companies no the fintech
00:27:50
market right so we were talking about
00:27:52
ftech and some of these assets
00:27:54
earlier some of these equities that have
00:27:56
been RI it's a very narrow part of the
00:27:58
economy right like if you look at Broad
00:28:01
like on a broad-based basis the tens and
00:28:04
tens of trillions of dollars of market
00:28:06
cap that
00:28:07
exist I do agree with you that
00:28:10
deregulation benefits a bunch of those
00:28:12
companies but it benefits sort of the
00:28:15
non-te businesses more than the tech
00:28:17
businesses the tech businesses right now
00:28:18
are relatively lightly regulated yeah I
00:28:21
would think that it benefits Pharma
00:28:22
businesses it benefits a businesses it
00:28:24
benefits real estate companies it
00:28:27
benefits a whole a whole whole swath of
00:28:29
the economy but we've started to see
00:28:31
that
00:28:32
reating and maybe we'll see a lot more
00:28:34
so maybe Jason the more Nuance answer to
00:28:36
your question is the kind of m&a that I
00:28:38
think you want to see that I mean let's
00:28:39
face it that we all want to see here
00:28:41
because we all have the vested interest
00:28:43
which is really specifically Tech m&a I
00:28:46
don't think that any of this
00:28:47
deregulation particularly accelerates
00:28:49
that but maybe a more Nuance take on
00:28:52
this would be that these other more
00:28:55
regulated parts of the economy could do
00:28:58
well and catch up to some of the
00:28:59
earnings potential or the forward
00:29:01
pricing of the tech businesses but again
00:29:04
now you get into this weird trade where
00:29:07
you can buy steady cash flowing
00:29:10
businesses that can grow in valuation as
00:29:13
fast as a as a fast growing but money
00:29:15
losing Tech business but then you trade
00:29:18
both of those two things off and it has
00:29:19
effectively the same yield as a
00:29:23
tenure what do you do yeah yeah I you
00:29:26
know I think there's a lot of back
00:29:28
up inventory where venture capitalist
00:29:32
boards and Founders people who control
00:29:34
and make these decisions on m&a if they
00:29:37
would sell the company to a larger
00:29:39
company I think there's a lot of
00:29:41
exhaustion in the market and that will
00:29:43
drive the capitulation on valuation
00:29:45
talking think the valuations will be
00:29:47
yeah
00:29:49
exactly I'm watching it right now I mean
00:29:51
you think Warren Buffett's going to take
00:29:53
325 billion of cash and but he won even
00:29:56
buy his own stock so going to pay in
00:29:58
terms of a multiple I think it'll be
00:30:00
more like Salesforce or Microsoft or
00:30:02
Google or Amazon getting off the
00:30:04
sidelines because they've looked at and
00:30:06
said you know the juice ain't worth the
00:30:07
squeeze we might as well put our efforts
00:30:09
and our Capital into buying big hardware
00:30:12
and building new products and services
00:30:14
but if they think hey I got a chance of
00:30:16
pulling this through I'm sitting on all
00:30:17
this cash what if I hit another YouTube
00:30:20
an Instagram you know really great
00:30:22
Acquisitions that were transformative
00:30:24
for those two companies meta would not
00:30:26
be where it is right now Facebook you
00:30:27
know that well Jam if they hadn't gotten
00:30:29
Instagram and certainly you know
00:30:31
freedberg as in alumni of Google if they
00:30:33
didn't get YouTube it would be a
00:30:35
completely different picture for that
00:30:36
company right now I think there's a lot
00:30:38
of those type of Acquisitions I think
00:30:40
there's a lot of those Acquisitions that
00:30:42
have been sitting there waiting and I'm
00:30:43
watching the secondary markets to your
00:30:45
question what's the discount going to be
00:30:48
the discount was last year I kid you not
00:30:51
780 90% off the last round for SAS
00:30:54
companies and this year it's 20 or 30
00:30:57
I'm seeing this when I'm getting offers
00:30:58
to buy our shares in some private SAS
00:31:01
companies some private fintech companies
00:31:03
and then I also think if you're a CEO
00:31:06
and you watch Robin Hood Uber Reddit
00:31:11
door Dash and instacart those five have
00:31:15
actually after getting a a little bit of
00:31:17
a ass kicking when they first went out
00:31:19
they have all rebounded massively and
00:31:22
for the people who held on to their
00:31:23
Reddit shares Robin Hood shares Uber
00:31:25
shares they have been rewarded massively
00:31:28
massively for having faith in you know
00:31:30
through this storm so I think those two
00:31:32
things the capitulation of all these
00:31:34
boards and Founders are going to say you
00:31:37
know what let's take the haircut let's
00:31:38
go public and let's tell our story and
00:31:41
and see if we can make it work as a
00:31:43
public company and then the people who
00:31:44
feel one step weaker than that I think
00:31:47
they want to cash their chips in they've
00:31:48
been in some of these Investments Jam
00:31:50
it's year 11 12 13 14 for some of these
00:31:52
private companies there is capitulation
00:31:54
on those boards people are exhausted so
00:31:56
that that I just I'm going to I'm going
00:31:57
to take the side of the argument on this
00:31:58
one I'll kind of play along so I think
00:32:03
and and I'll disagree a little bit for
00:32:04
couple different reasons these big tech
00:32:07
companies the ones that have had you
00:32:09
know media businesses or because
00:32:12
remember there's Tech that's Tech right
00:32:14
Nvidia does not have a media business
00:32:15
but there's been a conversation over the
00:32:17
last couple of years where we need to
00:32:19
break up big Tech has been kind of part
00:32:21
of the conversation with the Dems and
00:32:23
now the Republicans are coming in and
00:32:24
they're saying the same thing we got to
00:32:25
break up big Tech so there I think are a
00:32:27
few of these companies Google being one
00:32:29
of them that are very much handicapped
00:32:31
right now with respect to what kind of
00:32:33
m&a they can do without dealing with the
00:32:36
regulatory Sledgehammer coming down on
00:32:38
them so I don't think that those guys
00:32:40
are buyers JL I don't think that
00:32:41
Google's in a place right now where they
00:32:42
can go out and make a bunch of
00:32:43
Acquisitions they're going to do
00:32:45
everything they can to avoid the
00:32:47
regulatory Sledgehammer that's coming
00:32:49
their way first it was coming from the
00:32:50
Dems now it's coming from the new
00:32:51
Administration there's a bunch of other
00:32:53
companies you know that don't really fit
00:32:55
that bill like Microsoft probably
00:32:56
doesn't fit that bill Nvidia Adobe maybe
00:32:59
they'll make some Acquisitions but I
00:33:01
don't think it's as simple as well we'll
00:33:03
sell at a low price we'll buy at a low
00:33:05
price I'm just not sure they really need
00:33:07
to do that agree with you I completely
00:33:09
agree I I
00:33:11
think that these big tech companies will
00:33:14
need to pay a pound of Flesh for the
00:33:18
deplatforming and the censorship that
00:33:20
they did and this is a perfect time if
00:33:23
we're going to go to the political angle
00:33:24
to bring you in Sachs what are The Vibes
00:33:27
my per
00:33:28
is Trump likes to win and Trump wants to
00:33:30
see the economy soar that is his
00:33:33
platform he's a business guy I think he
00:33:36
wants to see fluidity I know JD has been
00:33:39
not a fan of like the Googles Etc so
00:33:42
maybe you could help us navigate this
00:33:44
who's right here what's the possibility
00:33:46
of m&a becoming more vibrant in a trump
00:33:49
uh
00:33:50
Administration well there's no question
00:33:52
that in general president Trump wants to
00:33:54
have the most vibrant economy we can
00:33:56
have and I think to that and you're
00:33:58
going to see the end of this era of
00:34:02
deceleration of regulatory capture and
00:34:05
lawfare I think all those things are are
00:34:07
over I think that equities that have
00:34:11
been straining or or tamped down under
00:34:14
the weight of these abuses you see them
00:34:16
ripping now for example Tesla it's gone
00:34:19
from roughly 250 to 320 a share just
00:34:22
since the election and you could call
00:34:24
that the lawfare discount I mean that
00:34:26
basically is the discount Tesla stock
00:34:28
because the market was pricing in the
00:34:31
risk of retaliation if the Republicans
00:34:33
lost there's a widespread belief that
00:34:36
the Democrats would go after Elon and
00:34:38
his company so you can actually measure
00:34:41
the lawfare discount based on regulation
00:34:44
right because there's a lot of
00:34:44
regulations around self-driving rocket
00:34:46
ship launches all those things he's
00:34:48
involved in there's a lot of Regulation
00:34:49
there yeah there was this crazy thing
00:34:51
where they they made some regulator made
00:34:53
them put a headset on a seal did you see
00:34:56
this to test the effect on seals of loud
00:34:59
noises the sonic boom sonic booms yeah
00:35:01
this poor seal do you see this poor seal
00:35:03
had like a head I don't don't do that to
00:35:06
freeberg put the no don't put it on the
00:35:08
screen put it in
00:35:10
post don't put it on the screen that's
00:35:12
freeberg is gonna anyway so they
00:35:14
subjected this poor seal to exactly the
00:35:16
thing that they were worried would harm
00:35:18
seals in any event the seal seemed
00:35:21
totally fine it didn't they torture
00:35:23
seals to make a point I got it yeah
00:35:25
anyway it's really crazy so yeah look
00:35:27
this crazy what about this JD help us
00:35:30
navigate I know JD is the VP and then
00:35:32
you have Trump is the CEO chamok pointed
00:35:35
out maybe there's a little on the
00:35:37
GOP anger resentment
00:35:41
residual because of the you know Banning
00:35:43
of trump from YouTube and and some of
00:35:45
these other platforms do you think that
00:35:47
makes its way into m&a or not I guess
00:35:49
sax like let me be specific to jal's
00:35:52
question not all tech companies are the
00:35:54
same in that point of view right Tech
00:35:57
m&a generally is a thing but
00:35:59
specifically the companies that have had
00:36:02
social media platforms may be kind of in
00:36:05
a different lens from a regulatory
00:36:08
perspective is that
00:36:10
fair yeah I mean look I think that not
00:36:14
everything Lena Khan did was bad in fact
00:36:16
she definitely has some fans among the
00:36:19
populist Republicans and yeah you know
00:36:21
some of them who've spoken out on her
00:36:23
behalf in various areas have been JD
00:36:25
Vance Matt Gates as well she did do some
00:36:28
good things specifically she was willing
00:36:30
to take on the big tech companies I mean
00:36:32
companies like Amazon Apple Google
00:36:35
frankly they just had a free ride for
00:36:37
the last couple of decades where they
00:36:38
were allowed to do anything and she came
00:36:40
in and said there's a new sheriff in
00:36:42
town and she was actually willing to
00:36:45
apply pressure on them to not engage in
00:36:47
anti-competitive tactics so I think she
00:36:49
deserves credit for that I think she did
00:36:52
change the conversation I think that
00:36:54
we've talked about on previous pods that
00:36:56
perhaps
00:36:58
there was not as targeted and surgical
00:37:01
an approach was used and as a result of
00:37:03
that it did have a chilling effect on
00:37:05
m&a and so it hurt the you know the
00:37:08
small Tech environment and so I think
00:37:10
that we need to fix that part of it but
00:37:12
I hope that whoever repl as Lina con
00:37:14
will continue to apply pressure to Big
00:37:16
Tech because they are monopolies and
00:37:19
they will abuse their power if they're
00:37:20
allowed to and they need to be
00:37:22
controlled sax if you had to handicap
00:37:25
the
00:37:26
probability of
00:37:29
of a lawsuit or some kind
00:37:33
of attempt to
00:37:37
dismantle Google and
00:37:40
Facebook would those be the two
00:37:42
companies at the top of your list and
00:37:43
how would you handicap that so my view
00:37:46
is that Google should be broken up
00:37:47
there's abundant reasons for that
00:37:49
there's at least three monopolies in
00:37:51
that company there's the search business
00:37:53
the advertising business and YouTube I
00:37:55
think they should be busted up what are
00:37:57
the that that happens it's hard to say
00:38:00
but what are the odds that that is
00:38:03
pursued in the next Administration in
00:38:05
some capacity or at least investigated
00:38:07
I'd say hi I'd say Facebook or meta
00:38:13
lesso I don't see the compelling need to
00:38:15
to bust them up but quite frankly I
00:38:19
think the issue that meta is going to
00:38:20
face is just there were a lot of abuses
00:38:22
in terms of censoring the Free Speech
00:38:25
rights of Americans now I don't think
00:38:27
that was all the company's idea I think
00:38:29
a lot of pressure was put on the company
00:38:33
by the Biden Administration I think they
00:38:34
wanted to do the right thing and just
00:38:36
didn't show enough backbone I think El
00:38:38
Zuckerberg's been clear that he regrets
00:38:41
and the knee now he's like listen I I'm
00:38:44
not a letter yeah he published a letter
00:38:47
and maybe it was done to some degree to
00:38:48
inoculate himself against the result of
00:38:50
this election but I'd say to his credit
00:38:53
it wasn't clear at all who's going to
00:38:54
win the election when he put out that
00:38:56
letter and he basically Ally said that
00:38:58
he regretted the fact that meta had gone
00:39:01
along with the censorship requests by
00:39:03
the Biden Administration and he
00:39:04
specifically referred to that whole
00:39:06
Hunter Biden story that got censored in
00:39:09
2020 that was election interference it
00:39:11
was a completely True Story by the New
00:39:13
York Post it got censored by big Tech at
00:39:16
the request of these 51 former
00:39:19
intelligence officials who were lying
00:39:22
through their teeth claiming was Russian
00:39:24
disinformation so he clearly regrets
00:39:26
going along with that in any event I
00:39:28
think there are better ways of handling
00:39:31
the speech issue on social networks than
00:39:32
busting up Facebook but I I I do think
00:39:34
though
00:39:35
that Congress should investigate or
00:39:39
continue investigating what went wrong
00:39:40
there and what exactly is the
00:39:43
involvement of the intelligence
00:39:45
community and the Deep state in the
00:39:48
censorship request that we saw exposed
00:39:51
by the Twitter files remember can I
00:39:52
bring up something maybe tangential and
00:39:54
you can react to this just speaking of
00:39:57
of like censorship and then just the the
00:40:00
media complex that we have I saw today
00:40:03
that Trump filed like a 10 or 15 billion
00:40:07
dollar lawsuit against the broadcast
00:40:08
networks maybe this is old news but I
00:40:11
and maybe I just saw the news I saw a
00:40:13
headline go by on X I don't I don't saw
00:40:16
as well yeah didn't make and then
00:40:18
separately with Bobby Kennedy's
00:40:20
nomination to HHS one of the things that
00:40:22
he has said that he wants to put an end
00:40:25
to is the advertising
00:40:28
that Pharma does on these broadcast
00:40:31
stations if you put these two things
00:40:32
together where you deprive these folks
00:40:34
of their largest revenue source and at
00:40:37
the same time they have to sort of like
00:40:39
answer for censorship or manipulating
00:40:43
content it does do you think that that
00:40:45
changes the landscape of how all these
00:40:48
companies behave in the future or how do
00:40:50
you think that that plays up yeah I mean
00:40:53
absolutely so all right let's take each
00:40:54
one of those so on the the broadcast
00:40:58
and we've talked about this before the
00:40:59
big broadcast networks and their
00:41:01
Affiliates receive free Spectrum
00:41:04
licenses from the FCC and they get some
00:41:07
of the most valuable Spectrum there is
00:41:08
through those licenses in exchange for
00:41:11
certain requirements that their
00:41:13
broadcasts are in the public interest
00:41:15
namely they have to follow a fairness
00:41:17
Doctrine which is supposed to mean that
00:41:19
you give equal time to both candidates
00:41:21
well in the final weeks of this campaign
00:41:23
we saw some really egregious abuses NBC
00:41:26
brought on KLA Harris but not Donald
00:41:28
Trump for a very favorable segment on
00:41:31
Saturday Night Live the week before the
00:41:33
election separately you saw 60 Minutes
00:41:36
deceptively edit in an interview with
00:41:39
KLA Harris where they actually took one
00:41:41
of her answers from one question and put
00:41:44
it as the answer to another question I
00:41:45
mean really deceptive so you have a
00:41:48
couple of examples with both CBS and NBC
00:41:52
which were violating the equal time
00:41:54
requirement were're were clearly working
00:41:57
on half the KLA Harris campaign and when
00:41:59
you look at the coverage itself this
00:42:02
election was the most unequal in terms
00:42:05
of favorable coverage it was something
00:42:07
like a 60 point difference something
00:42:09
like KLA KLA Harris received 80
00:42:12
something per favorable coverage and
00:42:14
Trump received something like 85%
00:42:17
negative coverage so it there's no way
00:42:19
who's that according to do you know yeah
00:42:21
there's um it's a report by Brent
00:42:24
bazel's uh media Watchdog group it's
00:42:26
been around for has been recording this
00:42:28
stuff in every election for the last 30
00:42:30
years in any event I think that there's
00:42:33
a very strong argument that the
00:42:34
broadcasters have not been Fair that's a
00:42:36
violation of their licensed requirements
00:42:38
and we should be re-evaluating their
00:42:40
Spectrum especially because it's not the
00:42:42
highest best use the great irony of this
00:42:44
though saxs is that they have already
00:42:47
been demolished I don't know if you saw
00:42:49
but a bunch of the anchors at CNN are
00:42:51
not renewing because their advertising
00:42:53
is so far off that like Chris Wallace I
00:42:56
think was making 8 million a year 9
00:42:57
million a year and he just said I'm
00:42:59
going to go do podcast because they I
00:43:00
think they low balled his offer and if
00:43:02
they lose well there's a bunch all that
00:43:04
advertising from Pharma which I think in
00:43:06
some of these networks is a third or
00:43:08
half and that's all networks that's from
00:43:10
Fox to CNN every MSNBC everybody
00:43:12
combined if they lose advertising from
00:43:15
Pharma it's over like these those news
00:43:19
networks are going to lose half their
00:43:21
revenue overnight that would be a that
00:43:24
would be a death blow jamath to your
00:43:26
question yeah well let me me let me get
00:43:27
back to that so so just on CNN and MSNBC
00:43:30
you're absolutely right that they're
00:43:31
announcing a bunch of layoffs their
00:43:32
ratings are destroyed I think they're
00:43:34
down MSNBC ratings are down like 50%
00:43:36
since the election what that tells me is
00:43:38
that their own audience wait sorry since
00:43:41
the election % yeah and what that what
00:43:45
that tells me is that their captive
00:43:46
viewer base who's been tuning in for
00:43:48
years to all of this TDS have has now
00:43:50
realized that they were deceived by
00:43:52
MSNBC and they've lost credibility even
00:43:55
with their most fervent support ERS so
00:43:58
there's no question that CNN MSNBC
00:44:00
they're hurting now jcal dis toate one
00:44:02
small modification they do not receive
00:44:04
they do not have Spectrum licenses from
00:44:06
the FCC right because they're cable
00:44:08
network so they're in kind of a
00:44:10
different bucket they don't have to
00:44:12
abide by the fairness doctrine that CBS
00:44:15
and NBC do right but they have different
00:44:18
problems and to your point about Pharma
00:44:20
there's absolutely no reason to be
00:44:22
allowing Pharma advertisements on these
00:44:26
uh TV networks the fact of the matter is
00:44:28
the people who are viewing those
00:44:30
networks can't buy you can't
00:44:32
buy Pharmaceuticals without a
00:44:34
prescription right it's up to doctors to
00:44:36
write you the prescription and this is
00:44:38
why most countries most Western
00:44:40
countries prohibit Pharma advertising on
00:44:43
the networks and I think Bobby Kennedy
00:44:45
has a very strong argument that it would
00:44:47
serve the public interest not to allow
00:44:49
this we don't
00:44:51
allow advertisements for tobacco right
00:44:55
so I guess the thing that doesn't make
00:44:57
sense to me sax is you're so such a
00:45:01
First Amendment absolutist in free
00:45:04
speech absolutist isn't it and I'm not
00:45:08
saying this my opinion but you know my
00:45:09
my challenge to you would be is tell me
00:45:11
about freedom of speech and expression
00:45:15
in relation to being able to do
00:45:16
advertising for these products well I
00:45:18
mean aren't aren't consumers smart
00:45:21
enough to figure it out the point of the
00:45:23
advertising is I think is not at the end
00:45:25
of the day to influence consumers
00:45:27
because consumers can't buy
00:45:28
Pharmaceuticals they have to go to
00:45:29
doctor they saying it ask your doctor
00:45:32
about the purpose of the advertising is
00:45:33
to buy favorable coverage that's the
00:45:36
point and there are many examples okay
00:45:38
explain that expl well there are many
00:45:39
examples of people who've worked in
00:45:42
these networks saying that they had a
00:45:44
story that was negative about Pharma
00:45:46
companies and that story got spiked
00:45:48
because the Pharma companies are the
00:45:49
biggest advertisers in fact I think it
00:45:52
was there was a story about Fox News and
00:45:55
who who um who's the guy Roger ALS well
00:46:00
there's been a number of stories I know
00:46:01
what you're talking about there's been
00:46:02
stories about Anderson
00:46:05
Cooper who's the the the guy who does
00:46:07
international coverage on the weekends
00:46:09
GPS is the name of his show I'm drawing
00:46:12
I can't remember right nowed Zakaria
00:46:14
thank you fared Zakaria yes um I think a
00:46:16
bunch of those shows were like literally
00:46:18
brought to you by fizer brought to you
00:46:20
by these things and so those shows
00:46:23
potentially would just go away and then
00:46:24
there were there was reporting on the
00:46:26
number times they would report on those
00:46:28
companies and it showed they didn't so
00:46:30
what what do you think freeberg of
00:46:33
should Pharma companies be allowed to
00:46:35
advertise to Consumers to ask their
00:46:37
doctors to ask them about
00:46:41
viagra what's your
00:46:45
take he's thinking for those of you at
00:46:48
home listening he's giving a deep
00:46:50
thought while he's thinking JK let me
00:46:52
just say that I think I think there is
00:46:54
there is a free speech issue that that
00:46:55
has to be weighed okay so I don't want
00:46:57
to be totally dismissive of that however
00:47:00
I think that the Viagra example is a is
00:47:02
on the like far end of the spectrum of a
00:47:05
drug that by you know by advertising it
00:47:08
you could actually get consumers to
00:47:09
request it from their doctor I don't
00:47:11
think most drugs are like that and I
00:47:14
think my contention would be that the
00:47:16
real reason they're paying all this
00:47:18
massive advertising is not to influence
00:47:20
consumers but to influence the coverage
00:47:22
that they get and there is something
00:47:24
very corrupt about that and I think
00:47:27
Bobby Kennedy has a really strong point
00:47:28
that if you were to remove that
00:47:31
incentive that many people inside the
00:47:33
industry have admitted exist then You'
00:47:36
get much fairer coverage of these Pharma
00:47:38
companies and we would actually get to
00:47:40
be a healthier country because you
00:47:42
wouldn't allow them to basically
00:47:44
manipulate the public debate so I that
00:47:47
that's the
00:47:49
argument freeberg you want to chime in
00:47:51
on it or no I I I mean I feel like
00:47:53
there's some Market correction that
00:47:55
takes place here which we're already
00:47:57
seeing which is the consumers are moving
00:48:00
away we just talked about moving away
00:48:02
from cable news moving away from Legacy
00:48:05
Media they don't trust it the trust is
00:48:08
at an all-time low I don't know if it's
00:48:11
necessarily the government's job to
00:48:13
determine who advertises what where how
00:48:15
and why I don't like the government
00:48:18
having that sort of degree of authority
00:48:20
generally speaking because it can then
00:48:21
lead into the government having
00:48:23
overreach and oversight to control
00:48:26
entities that maybe are competitive with
00:48:28
the government in different ways I do
00:48:30
believe that the the beef with big Tech
00:48:33
is a result of big Tech's influence over
00:48:36
the population where big government
00:48:38
wants to have that degree of influence
00:48:40
over the population so it's actually a
00:48:41
battle between government and private
00:48:44
entities over who can influence the
00:48:46
population and who has the ability to
00:48:48
control the narrative and I think that
00:48:51
the general concept that the government
00:48:52
should be determining who advertises
00:48:54
where what how and why is not a great
00:48:57
one and I don't think that consumers are
00:48:59
dumb I think that consumers are showing
00:49:01
their proclivity for Independent Media
00:49:04
and independent news sources because
00:49:06
they don't trust the influence that's
00:49:08
been kind of imparted upon these other
00:49:10
channels and these other sources and
00:49:12
they're moving away from it so I don't
00:49:14
know if it's as much kind of a
00:49:15
regulatory question and big Pharma needs
00:49:17
to be affected I I think that the market
00:49:19
to to some degree does its job I don't
00:49:21
think the consumers are dumb I will also
00:49:23
just kind of counter one of Sax's points
00:49:26
I I think that there are drugs like
00:49:28
multiple sclerosis is a good example
00:49:31
there was a drug introduced a couple
00:49:32
years ago called acus and it was a new
00:49:34
therapy for for multiple sclerosis that
00:49:36
is extremely effective it's a it's a
00:49:38
really a big step change in in
00:49:41
biological
00:49:42
therapies and a lot of people that were
00:49:44
on Ms and have had Ms for decades take
00:49:47
kind of old school old school drugs that
00:49:50
maybe aren't that effective so to create
00:49:52
awareness and they're not regularly
00:49:53
seeing their doctors they may not go in
00:49:54
and see their doctor every year like
00:49:55
they're supposed to
00:49:57
so the the Pharma companies are creating
00:49:59
awareness that there's this new modality
00:50:00
and this new product that could help
00:50:02
them to get them to go into the doctor's
00:50:04
office you know so I I don't want to say
00:50:06
that these are all like evil you know
00:50:08
trying to control and influence like
00:50:09
there are good drugs that come to Market
00:50:11
they are beneficial to people and people
00:50:12
don't know about them how else are they
00:50:14
supposed to get that word out if they're
00:50:15
not able to advertise so I don't think
00:50:17
that it's all like negative and all
00:50:19
malicious you know kind of behavior and
00:50:21
manipulation of media people we all have
00:50:24
the resources we all have the capacity
00:50:26
and we are all likely very frequently
00:50:28
going to doctors most people don't and
00:50:31
so most people that have chronic disease
00:50:33
or have health issues there there has to
00:50:35
be a mechanism for you know making them
00:50:37
aware of new options New Alternatives
00:50:39
new products that are coming to Market
00:50:40
so I'm not super like putting my foot
00:50:43
down saying Pharma company shouldn't be
00:50:44
able to advertise shouldn't be able to
00:50:45
buy media out there and put ads up and
00:50:47
tell people about stuff that they've
00:50:49
discovered or that they've invented
00:50:50
that's been regulated that's been tested
00:50:52
that's been approved and that works and
00:50:53
can help save lives I think they should
00:50:55
have the freedom ability to do that so I
00:50:58
think there's a there's a bit of a
00:50:59
Nuance here to how this gets handled is
00:51:01
my point yeah I mean look I I I'm not
00:51:04
saying that there's no benefit at all to
00:51:07
letting Pharma companies advertise some
00:51:10
products I think the question you have
00:51:12
to ask is why is so much money going
00:51:16
from Pharma to these news outlets
00:51:19
because most of the products you know
00:51:21
that you generally can't buy them I'll
00:51:23
tell you the reason the reason is that
00:51:25
the Pharma companies make so much money
00:51:27
off of government funded Insurance
00:51:28
programs let me just state that again if
00:51:31
we only had private insurance or if
00:51:34
consumers had to pay for their drugs and
00:51:36
their therapies themselves the cost of
00:51:38
drugs would go way down the reason the
00:51:40
cost of drugs has gone way up is because
00:51:43
so much of the government insurance
00:51:45
programs don't negotiate drug prices and
00:51:47
there are all these middlemen and all
00:51:49
these people that sit in between that
00:51:51
have been regulated through regulatory
00:51:52
capture into the system that has allowed
00:51:55
an incredible inflation in the of drug
00:51:57
prices therefore there is a lot of money
00:51:59
to kind of continue the capture of the
00:52:00
system I don't think that it is right
00:52:03
and I think that the free market
00:52:04
generally or having a less regulatory
00:52:06
captured Market will allow an
00:52:09
appropriate kind of pricing of therapies
00:52:11
an appropriate kind of adjustment in the
00:52:13
market which doesn't exist today so so
00:52:15
much money to kind of keep the market
00:52:17
the way it is needs to kind of keep
00:52:19
flowing that's my sense of this it's I
00:52:21
don't think it's about bad drugs need to
00:52:23
kind of stay in play as much as it is
00:52:25
this Market's been allowed to inflate
00:52:27
and the cost of healthcare and the cost
00:52:28
of drugs has inflated in a way that's
00:52:30
simply untenable and it doesn't make
00:52:33
sense and I think that it's because of
00:52:35
regulatory capture and I think that that
00:52:36
needs to change and I'm hopeful that
00:52:38
that it does that's the second reason
00:52:39
then to get the this farma money out of
00:52:42
advertising because you're basically
00:52:44
explaining it as like a self- looking
00:52:45
ice cream cone but again there's another
00:52:48
reason as well I think that explains the
00:52:50
sheer magnitude which is its influence
00:52:53
buying it's influence ping to your point
00:52:55
sax it's that was what I was about to
00:52:57
bring up you know
00:52:59
there it's very subtle you're not going
00:53:01
to have somebody at NBC or CNN or fox
00:53:05
come down and tell Tucker Carlson or
00:53:07
Rachel mat or Anderson Cooper hey you
00:53:09
can't cover the story but there is a
00:53:13
bunch of self-censorship that occurs I
00:53:16
believe where people just don't select
00:53:18
certain stories to be on the docket and
00:53:20
they just shape the coverage so they
00:53:22
might not say something positive or
00:53:24
negative about fizer or or Johnson and
00:53:27
Johnson whoever it is they they'll just
00:53:29
avoid that story H because these anchors
00:53:32
are getting paid or have been previously
00:53:35
paid 10 10 million 25 million a year do
00:53:38
you think they're going to like really
00:53:40
go hard at fizer or somebody like that
00:53:42
no they're just not going to I've been
00:53:44
inside the machine they just avoid those
00:53:47
stories okay let's keep going through
00:53:49
the docket here I think it was pretty
00:53:51
good conversation I and by the way I
00:53:53
just wanted to say to the Trump
00:53:55
Administration if you want the economy
00:53:57
to rip let m&a Rip but my one caveat is
00:54:01
is a really simple way to do this if
00:54:02
you're under a trillion dollar valuation
00:54:05
let those companies buy and sell each
00:54:07
other because then we could go from a
00:54:08
MAG 7even to a MAG 70 that's where I
00:54:11
think actually it makes the most sense
00:54:12
if you actually are concerned about the
00:54:14
consolidation of power in the top seven
00:54:17
let them sit out acquiring more
00:54:20
companies and let the people under that
00:54:22
who are the mid-market cap companies let
00:54:24
them do the buying and selling because
00:54:25
then you might have a 8 N9 and 10 show
00:54:27
up that's not talking my book it would
00:54:29
be better for me freedberg to let the
00:54:31
mag 7 participate because they can pay
00:54:33
higher prices they're not price
00:54:34
sensitive but I do think the mid-market
00:54:36
companies buying and selling would make
00:54:38
a healthier environment for competition
00:54:41
so you think sorry you think it creates
00:54:42
more competition which will that'll
00:54:45
benefit consumers and grow the economy
00:54:47
well look at it this way if somebody
00:54:49
wants to buy let's say wayo gets spun
00:54:51
out somebody wants to buy it if Amazon
00:54:53
can't buy it and Tesla can't buy it
00:54:56
and Amazon can't buy it but they could
00:55:00
merge with Uber Lyft door Dash you know
00:55:03
all those mid Airbnb if those companies
00:55:05
could consolidate can you imagine what
00:55:07
would happen if a Amazon couldn't buy
00:55:10
those companies but you could see weo
00:55:12
spin out and then partner with door Dash
00:55:15
and partner with Airbnb and you had that
00:55:17
as one company now you got a $400
00:55:19
billion doll company that is nipping on
00:55:21
the heels that is aggressively competing
00:55:23
with Amazon that's what you want in the
00:55:25
market is more competition for the MA 7
00:55:28
you don't want the Magnificent 7 to run
00:55:30
away with it and we could create the
00:55:32
eighth nth and 10th so just imagine that
00:55:34
freeberg if there was a another trillion
00:55:36
dollar company like I actually I think
00:55:38
Tesla just became a trillion dollar
00:55:39
company again so now that they're up in
00:55:41
those ranks
00:55:42
great don't let Tesla don't let Amazon
00:55:46
Etc Nvidia buy more companies let those
00:55:48
that mergers and Acquisitions and that
00:55:50
strength happen under the trillion
00:55:52
dollar Mark what do you think of that
00:55:54
General concept freeberg yeah I
00:55:56
generally think competition is good I
00:55:58
generally think free markets should be
00:56:00
allowed to operate and I've shared my
00:56:01
point of view I think bigger is going to
00:56:03
drive more Innovation than lots of
00:56:05
little so okay again wayo wouldn't exist
00:56:08
if not for Google plowing billions and
00:56:10
billions and I don't know about you guys
00:56:11
I took weo around the city yesterday
00:56:13
pretty sick like it is legit I don't go
00:56:16
to the city yeah it's pretty legit and
00:56:20
um I I think toxic cess pool and by the
00:56:24
way I will say my other comment is I
00:56:26
think San Francisco has gotten 10x
00:56:28
better now that I've been working
00:56:30
downtown the last week or two 10x better
00:56:33
from a toxic pool just means success
00:56:35
pool I think part of the fact part of
00:56:37
the reason is all of Walgreens is gone
00:56:39
there's no no Walgreens left you can't
00:56:41
buy deodorant problem solved there's
00:56:44
nowhere to do crime anymore how toil
00:56:46
drug that doesn't ex San Francisco how
00:56:48
do you do that you got to ask Jason
00:56:51
Jason get an Amazon package delivered
00:56:54
yeah I don't man I'm in Texas you can do
00:56:57
whatever you want here Jason gets his
00:57:00
supplies aird dropped in once a month
00:57:02
what are you talking about I'm bullish
00:57:04
on the San Francisco turnaround because
00:57:05
I think Dan Daniel lurry getting elected
00:57:08
mayor was huge and this doesn't get
00:57:10
really as much attention but it's very
00:57:11
important the board shifted the radicals
00:57:14
got voted off The Board of Supervisors
00:57:16
so the Board of Supervisors are less
00:57:18
Progressive Daniel's in the mayoral
00:57:20
office it and I think I think the city's
00:57:23
already like turning around I've been
00:57:25
super blown away the last couple weeks
00:57:27
I've been downtown I'm like why am I not
00:57:28
working downtown every day it's actually
00:57:30
really nice it feels like San Francisco
00:57:32
20 years ago let's see I'm pretty
00:57:34
bullish I mean safety is the number one
00:57:36
thing if they can and this budget need
00:57:38
to get put under control San Francisco
00:57:39
spends one and a half x per capita of
00:57:41
what New York City spends and that's
00:57:44
something that Daniel and his team have
00:57:46
kind of said they're GNA address sort of
00:57:48
like their own Doge and there's a team
00:57:49
going in there to address this so I'm
00:57:51
really bullish on what's going to happen
00:57:52
with the city it's just such a great
00:57:55
place it seems like power resides in the
00:57:57
supervisors and they seem to have
00:57:58
flipped two or three of the really
00:58:00
lunatic ones right saaks they got rid of
00:58:02
Dopey de Preston who was the other guy
00:58:05
peskin peskin he was an idiot and they
00:58:09
those guys are done so that's progress
00:58:11
do you want to talk about the Trump uh
00:58:13
candidates JL yeah let's get to that in
00:58:15
a second but before we get to that FBI
00:58:17
raid the home of poly Market CEO Shane
00:58:20
copelan he was on the election night
00:58:23
stream he was raided on Wednesday
00:58:26
November 13th 8 days after the election
00:58:28
they say poly Market is Bloomberg says
00:58:30
poly Market is being investigated for
00:58:32
allegedly accepting trades from us-based
00:58:34
users here's the backstory in 2022 po
00:58:38
Market paid 1.4 million to settle a case
00:58:40
with the cftc for offering option
00:58:43
contracts without proper
00:58:46
designation the commodity Futures
00:58:48
Trading commission also ordered the
00:58:50
company to prevent us Traders from
00:58:52
making bets they recently said poly
00:58:54
Market that is that they had taken
00:58:55
additional to block Americans from
00:58:57
trading at the same time Ki and Robin
00:58:59
Hood were able to offer presidential
00:59:01
prediction markets because Ki it seems
00:59:03
like they won their lawsuit against the
00:59:05
cftc last month so that allowed some
00:59:09
betting markets to happen but poly
00:59:10
Market is still banned from the US
00:59:12
because of that settlement in 2022
00:59:14
here's the poly Market claim they
00:59:16
claimed the raid was obviously political
00:59:19
retribution by the outgoing
00:59:20
Administration against poly market for
00:59:22
providing a market that correctly called
00:59:25
the 2024 presidential election and Shane
00:59:27
posted on X discouraging that the
00:59:29
current Administration would seek a
00:59:31
lasti effort to go after companies they
00:59:33
deem to be associated with political
00:59:35
opponents bunch of conspiracy theories
00:59:37
flying around Peter Tel and founder fund
00:59:41
have made an investment into the company
00:59:42
and Nate silver is an
00:59:44
advisor I
00:59:46
guess I'll just point out accurate they
00:59:49
were much more accurate than they toally
00:59:50
accurate yeah so how manipulated can it
00:59:53
be if they got everything right yeah I
00:59:55
mean that's literally the point I was
00:59:57
about to make and um I'll just end with
00:59:59
this and then give it to USX for red
01:00:03
meat Americans are not allowed to
01:00:06
participate in a lot of different
01:00:07
markets and these kind of actions have
01:00:10
been taken many many many times as we
01:00:12
all know poker crypto real estate and
01:00:15
prediction markets have all had actions
01:00:16
like this taken against them and they
01:00:18
typically are a the offices too or just
01:00:21
his house just his house according to
01:00:24
the information we have right now they
01:00:26
bust into his house at 6: am and they
01:00:28
took his phone by the way shout out to
01:00:30
no but like like if you were breaking
01:00:32
the law why wouldn't
01:00:35
they all that off yeah it's a great
01:00:38
great speculation and important to note
01:00:41
this action came after the election is
01:00:43
resolved so it's obvious the FBI knew
01:00:46
that doing this beforehand would be seen
01:00:49
as political and doing it after I guess
01:00:52
the decision no no I know what you're
01:00:53
saying I'm adding something else which
01:00:55
is they obviously knew this would be
01:00:57
political sacks and so they did it after
01:01:00
they knew if they did it before that
01:01:01
would be looked like you know really bad
01:01:04
that the prediction Market that's
01:01:05
predicting Trump a trump win was rated
01:01:08
so they did it after what do you think
01:01:10
sax what's going on okay I think it's
01:01:12
political or not I guess question we
01:01:14
don't know what was driving this it's
01:01:16
certainly an extreme action to bust into
01:01:18
someone's home at 6:00 a.m. with the FBI
01:01:20
and take take your phone so it's very
01:01:22
curious I think there's three theories
01:01:25
that I've heard that I think could
01:01:27
explain this and I want to just be very
01:01:29
clear that there's no proof on any of
01:01:31
this it's just speculation yeah it's a
01:01:34
speculation going onul yeah but by the
01:01:36
way just before I get into it I think
01:01:38
Shane Copeland had one of the funniest
01:01:39
tweets I've ever seen new phone who yeah
01:01:42
new phone who this Nick you should show
01:01:45
that I mean that was like ballsy the FBI
01:01:47
bus in your house takes your phone and
01:01:49
that's the person means this is a that
01:01:51
means that this is probably not a
01:01:52
serious situation but anyway go ahead
01:01:54
well who who knows but yeah or he's
01:01:56
confident is I what I would say yeah
01:01:58
yeah okay so Theory number one is that
01:02:02
what the feds are looking for is whether
01:02:05
any domestic whales were illegally
01:02:08
wagering on the election outcome because
01:02:11
theoretically the money is all supposed
01:02:13
to be offshore because domestic wagering
01:02:16
on the election was illegal however a
01:02:18
Court rule just days before the election
01:02:20
that domestic wagering was legal so that
01:02:23
so Theory number one doesn't really make
01:02:25
a lot of sense because the FBI would be
01:02:28
enforcing a a rule or a law that the
01:02:31
courts had just overruled just days
01:02:33
before the election so but that's Theory
01:02:34
number one Theory number two and this
01:02:37
theory was raised by Fortune Magazine is
01:02:40
that this that poly Market was rif with
01:02:42
what's called wash trading which is a
01:02:44
form of Market manipulation where Shares
01:02:46
are bought and sold often simultaneously
01:02:49
and repeatedly by the same people to
01:02:51
create a false impression of volume and
01:02:54
activity liquid this is illegal the us
01:02:56
and it does occur in crypto markets so
01:02:59
they could have been going after that
01:03:01
but again it does seem like a very
01:03:02
extreme thing to bust into his house why
01:03:05
don't you just ask Shane what Authority
01:03:08
would the US government have if it's all
01:03:10
offshore in that context I don't know
01:03:12
I'm justay out I'm laying out possible
01:03:14
theories but Fortune Magazine did did
01:03:17
raise that theory but again if that's
01:03:18
what your claim is just subpoena poly
01:03:21
market during business hours I don't
01:03:23
know why you need to raid the the guy's
01:03:24
home or Raid the office that's where the
01:03:26
files are right now let me let me lay
01:03:29
out Theory number three okay which is
01:03:31
going to be a little bit more
01:03:33
controversial here we go but uh get the
01:03:36
chin foil if if somebody was
01:03:39
manipulating these sites okay then on
01:03:43
whose behalf were they doing it and what
01:03:45
you'd have to say is that they were
01:03:46
doing it on behalf of the comma campaign
01:03:49
because in the last few days of the
01:03:51
election there was a weird blip where
01:03:54
poly market and and Kia especially Kia
01:03:57
even more than poly Market all of a
01:03:59
sudden flipped to Kamala and you could
01:04:02
see this particularly in Pennsylvania
01:04:04
where all of a sudden there was a big
01:04:05
flip at the end away from Trump towards
01:04:08
kamla that turned out to be totally fake
01:04:10
and Trump won Pennsylvania pretty pretty
01:04:13
handily and so you got to wonder wait a
01:04:16
second was a Comm supporter maybe trying
01:04:19
to push the narrative that there was a
01:04:21
last minute surge to Kamala because
01:04:24
that's what the action seemed to
01:04:26
imply and remember that at the same time
01:04:28
this was happening there was a big there
01:04:31
was like a media push to create a
01:04:33
narrative by her supporters in the media
01:04:36
that there was a late break for Harris
01:04:39
yes by Independence and so you have to
01:04:41
kind of Wonder was somebody trying to
01:04:44
push the prediction markets at the last
01:04:46
minute to feed a media narrative that
01:04:48
they were trying to create look I have
01:04:50
no evidence for this whatsoever but the
01:04:52
the action in the betting markets and
01:04:54
the narrative they were trying to create
01:04:55
in the media do line up so if somebody
01:04:58
was going to investigate election
01:04:59
manipulation this is what they should
01:05:01
look into Jam you have any thoughts
01:05:04
here no zero thoughts I mean yeah you
01:05:07
know my thoughts on it are I I don't see
01:05:10
him ever doing anything risky or illegal
01:05:13
so it makes no sense to me I'm guessing
01:05:17
that somebody made him aware pure
01:05:20
speculation of something in the system
01:05:23
and that probably was on his phone and
01:05:24
they probably wanted to get that and
01:05:25
it's probably like a speeding ticket
01:05:27
ticky tacky
01:05:29
thing and you just have the law still
01:05:32
working its way through the system
01:05:33
because they Sachs were under an order
01:05:36
to not take us but Ki had gotten the
01:05:39
mark the law changed with their
01:05:40
successful lawsuit or they had defended
01:05:43
their their case so I would say it's all
01:05:45
allegedly folks and so wait for more
01:05:48
information is always a good idea all
01:05:52
right Trump is building his team and uh
01:05:55
it's a long list we've got I guess
01:05:58
dozens of names right now so let's start
01:06:00
with the four who's your favorite
01:06:03
job well my opinion probably doesn't
01:06:05
matter all that much but let me go with
01:06:07
the four that uh are creating the most
01:06:10
Buzz let's let's create the let's go
01:06:12
with the four that are having the most
01:06:14
buzz and then I'll let you each tell me
01:06:16
what you think J one you you love the
01:06:20
one I yeah there is one actually I love
01:06:22
but let's I'll sa that don't know who's
01:06:23
that I'm curious actually genuinely
01:06:26
curious vake and Elon doing doge is my
01:06:29
absolute favorite yes anything else that
01:06:32
I
01:06:33
am fascinated by Bobby Kennedy going in
01:06:38
and trying to make the country healthier
01:06:40
and the country is the most sick country
01:06:43
I think of uh all of the Western
01:06:46
countries and I think our food system
01:06:47
has massive problems so I'm very excited
01:06:49
to see what he does inside of the health
01:06:53
and human services department I think
01:06:55
it's a little little bit controversial
01:06:56
obviously but I don't see how it could
01:06:59
be any worse than what we currently
01:07:01
have how do you feel about that who's
01:07:04
your favorite I guess we can just go
01:07:05
with people's favorites if you want to
01:07:06
go that way the way I interpret his
01:07:08
cabinet picks is that he's creating a
01:07:11
coalition so I view it more as like a
01:07:13
package deal jcal I'm not going to pick
01:07:15
out one or two although I do have my
01:07:17
favorites the person who I think very
01:07:19
astutely understands what Trump is
01:07:21
trying to do is Charlie Kirk who's a
01:07:23
major influencer on the Republican side
01:07:27
and he says that that what Maha which is
01:07:32
make America healthy again they get RFK
01:07:34
Bobby Kennedy HHS obviously the
01:07:36
Libertarians get Tulsi at dni I would
01:07:38
add to that that they also get Elon vake
01:07:41
at Doge the base the populous base gets
01:07:44
Matt Gates they get Heth at DOD they get
01:07:47
homman and then the peace through
01:07:49
projecting strength crowd which is kind
01:07:51
of a nice name for neocon gets Rubio as
01:07:54
Secretary of State and stefanic get the
01:07:55
UN so I think that Trump is basically
01:07:59
trying to have his cabinet reflect the
01:08:03
diversity of views within the Republican
01:08:05
Party he's not decisively choosing one
01:08:08
side over another what this means is
01:08:11
that during his presidency he's going to
01:08:13
get all the views and all the options
01:08:16
within the that's the collective view
01:08:17
that's an interesting way let's go Point
01:08:19
by Point through the most controversial
01:08:21
ones Matt Gates is obviously the most
01:08:23
controversial
01:08:25
that's what's all young that's another
01:08:27
Trend yeah and he has uh been put up as
01:08:29
attorney general he has to be confirmed
01:08:31
by the Senate obviously he's the house
01:08:33
rep from Florida saaks how qualified is
01:08:35
he for this job on a scale of 1 to 10 I
01:08:38
think that Matt Gates would be a breath
01:08:40
of fresh air at at doj I mean look
01:08:43
here's why is that the doj has been
01:08:47
involved for the last eight or nine
01:08:49
years in a completely fabricated effort
01:08:52
to portray Donald Trump as an agent of
01:08:55
the Russians it started with the steel
01:08:58
dossier they then opened an
01:08:59
investigation based on that phony piece
01:09:01
of opposition research funded by the
01:09:03
Hillary campaign they lied to the fisa
01:09:05
court to spy on Donald Trump's campaign
01:09:08
they then worked with the various
01:09:11
intelligence services and with uh the
01:09:15
media to create this like hoax that went
01:09:17
on for years and years there's been no
01:09:19
accountability for that furthermore in
01:09:22
the 2020 election you also had that
01:09:24
effort to essentially cover up the
01:09:26
hunter Biden hard drive that the FBI and
01:09:29
doj were sitting on that for roughly a
01:09:31
year they created a a phony story that
01:09:35
it was Russian disinformation when it
01:09:36
turned out to be completely authentic so
01:09:38
you believe there's a lot to clean up
01:09:39
there how qualified to 10 what the
01:09:42
president what the president ran on was
01:09:47
that the doj needed to be de weaponized
01:09:51
that it had been turned into a partisan
01:09:53
political apparatus for the Democrats I
01:09:55
don't think anyone can argue with that
01:09:57
at this point I think the American
01:09:58
people clearly bought into that argument
01:10:00
now in order to clean it up you're going
01:10:02
to have to bring in a total Outsider
01:10:03
who's willing to break some eggs and
01:10:06
shake things up is Matt Gates the only
01:10:08
person who could do that no there are
01:10:09
other people who could do it but Matt
01:10:11
Gates is definitely qualified for that
01:10:12
role he was one of the most outspoken
01:10:14
critics in Congress of this
01:10:17
weaponization of the FBI he was never
01:10:19
fooled by the Russia gate hoax most The
01:10:21
Establishment was con anybody anybody
01:10:23
who bought into the Russia gate hoax is
01:10:25
not qualified to run the doj at this
01:10:27
point okay any
01:10:29
concerns well there's a bunch of
01:10:31
unproven smears and accusations have
01:10:33
been made against him put that any other
01:10:35
concerns about him excuse me aside from
01:10:40
the the the investigations and whatever
01:10:41
and the smears there's a bunch of
01:10:43
unproven yeah smears and accusations
01:10:46
been made against him and my own view on
01:10:49
that is that if there was really
01:10:50
something there I think Merck Garland's
01:10:52
doj would have acted on it two or three
01:10:54
years ago so I personally discount all
01:10:58
these smears without there being any
01:11:00
evidence whatsoever and I think it's
01:11:01
very predictable that what we're seeing
01:11:03
with both Matt Gates and with Tulsi is
01:11:05
that the worst accusations get made
01:11:08
without any evidence in the media when
01:11:11
the blob or the establishment wants to
01:11:13
stop a true populist reformer from
01:11:16
cleaning up their backyard free your
01:11:18
thoughts on M Gates I that seems to be
01:11:19
the most controversial one any concerns
01:11:21
you think he's the most suited guy for
01:11:22
the
01:11:24
job I I don't want to comment on mat
01:11:26
Gates but I'd like to talk
01:11:27
about why
01:11:29
not because I'd like to talk about a
01:11:31
broader point of view on it
01:11:34
okay so I
01:11:37
think there's this kind of thing that
01:11:41
happens in biology called Evolution and
01:11:44
a lot of people think evolution is this
01:11:45
continuous process but it's not
01:11:48
evolution is this process by which there
01:11:49
is some significant growth for a period
01:11:52
of time and then there is an an
01:11:55
Extinction event or an external force
01:11:58
that causes what ultimately becomes
01:12:00
what's called punctuated equilibrium so
01:12:01
the whole kind of system resets and then
01:12:03
the healthier stronger species survive
01:12:06
and they grow and they
01:12:08
persist and if you look at the first
01:12:11
chart Nick that I pulled up this will
01:12:12
just show you guys past Extinction
01:12:15
events large amounts of biomass over the
01:12:18
past half billion years get wiped out
01:12:20
when these Extinction events occur and
01:12:22
then Evolution occurs because the
01:12:24
species that concern survive the
01:12:25
extinction event persists in the
01:12:27
environment and they grow and that's how
01:12:30
Evolution kind of actually takes place
01:12:32
is there's an external force that
01:12:34
changes what survives and what doesn't
01:12:36
it's kind of a testing Force if you look
01:12:38
at federal spending and this is a crazy
01:12:40
link but here's federal spending over
01:12:43
the last couple of decades
01:12:45
and I would argue that many of the
01:12:48
agencies much of the bureaucracy many of
01:12:51
the jobs created many of the spending
01:12:53
programs many of the operating models
01:12:54
many of the behaviors can kind of be
01:12:57
viewed as a specie or species within
01:13:00
this ecosystem that have kind of grown a
01:13:02
lot over the last few decades and I
01:13:05
think what Trump's mandate was by the
01:13:07
people and people don't want to hear
01:13:09
this and they don't like it but his
01:13:10
mandate was to be kind of the extinction
01:13:12
event and whatever agencies whatever
01:13:16
operating processes whatever individuals
01:13:19
whatever bureaucratic systems exist
01:13:21
within the federal government that can
01:13:23
withstand the scrutiny of the the
01:13:25
individuals that Trump is going to put
01:13:26
in charge of each of these agencies that
01:13:29
they can survive and they can come out
01:13:31
the other end there is certainly some
01:13:33
degree of strength and resilience and
01:13:35
hardiness this is not about right or
01:13:37
wrong this they deserve to exist if they
01:13:39
can this is going to bring in this is
01:13:41
going to bring in the most disruptive
01:13:43
force that federal agencies have ever
01:13:45
seen and the intention with Trump isn't
01:13:47
to find some person to keep running
01:13:50
things the way they have been run in the
01:13:51
past his mandate from the people who
01:13:53
elected him based on the message put out
01:13:55
there is to do the opposite which is to
01:13:57
go in and be as disruptive and damaging
01:13:59
and destructive as possible and whatever
01:14:01
comes out the other side will be
01:14:03
stronger will be harder and
01:14:05
theoretically will'll be you know more
01:14:09
resilient and I think that that's the
01:14:12
event that's underway now the people who
01:14:14
are getting exactly what they want in
01:14:16
Trump's candidacies are the Democrats
01:14:19
they were saying Trump is going to put a
01:14:21
bunch of crazy lunatics in office and
01:14:22
he's going to make them the cabinet and
01:14:24
they're G and they're and now they're
01:14:25
able to kind of clap their hands and
01:14:26
saywe told you so we told you so and I'm
01:14:29
not sure that if they're really getting
01:14:31
the message which is that the intention
01:14:32
here isn't to keep things running the
01:14:35
way they have been running but to really
01:14:37
fundamentally test the systems and test
01:14:39
the systems with the most challenging
01:14:41
oppositional forces the systems have
01:14:43
ever been tested by which is the
01:14:44
candidates or the individuals that he's
01:14:46
putting in charge of each of these
01:14:47
agencies so I I'm not saying it's right
01:14:49
or wrong one way or the other but I'm
01:14:51
making an observation that this is going
01:14:53
to be kind of an extinction level event
01:14:55
that Trump's decisions on who he's
01:14:57
putting in place I think are going to
01:14:58
drive an outcome on the other end that's
01:15:01
going to make the government look very
01:15:02
different and I you know I'm not going
01:15:04
to sit around and say this person's good
01:15:05
this person's bad because I don't think
01:15:06
the point is to find someone that's
01:15:08
quote qualified to do the job the
01:15:10
intention is actually quite different
01:15:12
and the outcome may actually be positive
01:15:14
for America if you fast forward a couple
01:15:16
of years in some cases and there's some
01:15:17
cases where things could get really
01:15:18
messed up and people could suffer and
01:15:20
jobs will be lost and all sorts of bad
01:15:22
things will happen but we can continue
01:15:25
the way we have been with respect to
01:15:27
federal spending with respect to federal
01:15:29
spending bureaucracy and inefficiency in
01:15:31
the federal government and so something
01:15:33
has to happen and if this is the path by
01:15:34
which this gets resolved in The Limited
01:15:36
window that's in front of this this
01:15:39
particular Administration which is
01:15:40
probably two years maybe four maybe this
01:15:42
is what has to happen shabat where do
01:15:44
you stand on free Berg's interesting
01:15:48
metaphor here that we're sending meteors
01:15:51
into each of these departments to blow
01:15:53
them up and see if they survive and
01:15:55
extinction level event I saw you nodding
01:15:57
do you think this is uh an interesting
01:15:59
framing great take I have nothing to add
01:16:01
to Freed Berg's take got it who's your
01:16:04
favorite yeah you asked me the question
01:16:06
I answered who's your favorite well I
01:16:08
think let's take Elon and VI off the
01:16:10
table because that's an obvious one that
01:16:12
we' all been behind since the beginning
01:16:14
yeah and no and we all support the idea
01:16:16
who's not against more efficiency I mean
01:16:18
you'd have to be an idiot to be against
01:16:19
efficiency it's like the easiest one to
01:16:21
say you love I think the highest beta
01:16:23
pick so far has been Bobby Kennedy I
01:16:26
think the second highest beta pick is
01:16:29
Matt Gates explain highest beta pick in
01:16:32
this context please I think the third is
01:16:34
tulsy
01:16:35
gabber that there is the potential
01:16:38
for an
01:16:40
enormously positive two or three sigma
01:16:42
outcome but there's also the chance that
01:16:46
it can really not
01:16:48
work that was exactly why I pick Bobby
01:16:51
Kennedy because he's going to shake it
01:16:52
up right Peter teal just did this
01:16:54
podcast with bar wi and it was fantastic
01:16:56
by the way highly recommend highly
01:16:58
recommend awesome
01:17:00
the one of the great things he said is
01:17:03
that he was talking about science but I
01:17:04
think the example works here as well
01:17:06
which is that we didn't have enough
01:17:08
skepticism and we had too much Dogma he
01:17:11
was talking about sort of like the the
01:17:13
death of
01:17:14
Science and I think that that idea
01:17:17
applies here as well which is that the
01:17:19
federal bureaucracy has not really been
01:17:22
challenged and VI put out a very
01:17:26
compelling post on X where he basically
01:17:29
said like look when you on the one hand
01:17:32
there's going to be radical transparency
01:17:33
but on the other hand there's a lot of
01:17:36
case law that we can use to kind of try
01:17:38
to really dismantle the government
01:17:41
apparatus and they're putting themselves
01:17:43
on a shot clock to do it by 2026 for the
01:17:46
250th anniversary so I think I'm really
01:17:52
predisposed to this idea that
01:17:56
it'll Force the government to be very
01:17:58
resilient at the end of this process and
01:17:59
I think that's a good thing and it'll
01:18:01
probably be very different than what it
01:18:03
is on the way in and I think that that
01:18:05
can be very positive all right so we got
01:18:08
shth and myself actually giving some
01:18:11
specific names that we thought were
01:18:13
interesting I'll go back to you Sachs
01:18:14
maybe I'll phrase it
01:18:16
as to chat's phrasing which one do you
01:18:19
think has the greatest chance of
01:18:21
creating a massive potential change that
01:18:23
could be positive but also has some
01:18:26
possibility of a destructive downside in
01:18:28
other words it could go either way but
01:18:30
man if it goes the right way it could be
01:18:32
brilliant and amazing and great for all
01:18:33
Americans who would be your number one
01:18:35
number two in that regard well you have
01:18:38
to identify what the potential downside
01:18:40
is I think the single biggest risk in a
01:18:42
second Trump term is that somehow the
01:18:45
United States gets into an unnecessary
01:18:47
War a war that we don't need another
01:18:48
Forever War I it's certainly not what
01:18:51
president Trump wants he's been
01:18:52
abundantly clear on the camp campaign
01:18:55
trail that he wants to avoid Wars he
01:18:57
wants to avoid World War II it's clearly
01:18:59
where all of his instincts are but the
01:19:01
fact of the matter is we have a very
01:19:02
fraud and difficult International
01:19:04
situation right now the Middle East is
01:19:06
on fire we have a proxy war going on
01:19:08
with Russia so there is the chance that
01:19:11
things could always spiral out of
01:19:12
control and you need I think within the
01:19:15
cabinet not just hawkish voices but also
01:19:17
dovish voices so that the president has
01:19:20
the full range of options at his
01:19:22
disposal and so in that sense I would
01:19:25
say that you know Tulsi as being one of
01:19:27
the more dovish voices is incredibly
01:19:30
critical just to balance out some of the
01:19:32
other voices who are more hawkish and so
01:19:35
in that sense I think you know just
01:19:37
making sure that the president gets to
01:19:39
hear from a a wide spectrum of views I
01:19:42
think that that part's very important so
01:19:45
that would be Chelsea Chelsea would be
01:19:47
your pick for like yeah just because
01:19:49
like tulsy could literally make the
01:19:50
difference between whether we get in a
01:19:52
un necessary Forever War or not
01:19:55
I would also just say that with respect
01:19:57
to the other picks there's obviously a
01:19:59
lot of Hysteria going on a lot of
01:20:02
hyperboy about the downsides I don't
01:20:04
think it's going to be like a meteor
01:20:06
hitting the earth I don't think it's
01:20:08
that destructive I think that it's more
01:20:10
like will some eggs be broken up to make
01:20:13
an omelet right that's that's the
01:20:15
analogy I would use rather than the
01:20:17
meteor and the thing I would just say is
01:20:20
that we all agree the United States is
01:20:22
currently on an unsustainable fiscal
01:20:24
path we know that we're spending too
01:20:26
much money we know that the bureaucracy
01:20:27
is too big what's the downside of
01:20:29
shaking it up there's just way more
01:20:31
upside than downside in terms of shaking
01:20:33
up this bureaucracy because the current
01:20:36
path is bankruptcy exactly so why do we
01:20:38
have to act like that it's so risky to
01:20:42
bring in Outsiders and populists and
01:20:44
reformers into these agencies we know
01:20:47
there's going to be huge resistance to
01:20:49
them the biggest risk frankly is inertia
01:20:52
taking over and the reformers aren't
01:20:55
able to do enough and we all doing
01:20:57
nothing is not an option yeah and then
01:20:58
we go bankrupt that's the big risk why
01:21:00
is Chelsea getting attacked what's the
01:21:03
Russian connection people are saying
01:21:05
like I don't I don't know any of the
01:21:07
history here so tell me it's obvious
01:21:09
it's because Washington is a very
01:21:11
hawkish place it's basically run by the
01:21:13
war machine there's there's no money
01:21:16
going to Washington to lobby for peace
01:21:18
all the money in Washington is coming
01:21:21
from the military-industrial complex so
01:21:23
by definition it's extremely hawkish and
01:21:26
it's geared towards war and tuls is
01:21:28
there some history with Tulsi and Russia
01:21:30
yeah just to finish my point yeah Tulsi
01:21:33
has been one of the few consistent
01:21:34
voices advocating for peace so of course
01:21:37
the establishment wants to basically get
01:21:39
her nomination vetoed but again I think
01:21:42
you have to see the cabinet as a package
01:21:44
deal I think it's very important to have
01:21:46
pulsi as one voice for peace within a
01:21:49
larger cabinet that already has many
01:21:51
hawkish voices got it okay all right
01:21:53
everybody for your of science from ohal
01:21:57
David freeberg the chairman dictator
01:22:00
jamat ptio from 090 and David Sachs from
01:22:05
Craft Ventures I am Jason kakanis your
01:22:08
host here at the Allin podcast and this
01:22:10
week in startups we'll see you next time
01:22:13
on the all-in podcast byebye back at you
01:22:16
Chief retribution
01:22:17
[Music]
01:22:18
[Applause]
01:22:23
officer your Winner's
01:22:26
ride Rainman
01:22:30
David and instead we open source it to
01:22:32
the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:22:34
with it love queen
01:22:40
[Music]
01:22:43
of
01:22:46
Besties my dog Tak your driveway
01:22:49
scks man oh man my habiter will meet me
01:22:54
at we should all just get a room and
01:22:55
just have one big huge orgy cuz they're
01:22:57
all this useless it's like this like
01:22:59
sexual tension that they just need to
01:23:00
release
01:23:01
[Music]
01:23:07
somehow we need to get
01:23:12
[Music]
01:23:16
mer I'm doing all
01:23:19
[Music]
