00:00:03
[Music] this is why the all-in pod is falling apart is we got one bestie who thinks
00:00:09
he's [Â __Â ] hemming away we got another one who thinks he's italian nobility we got another one all he wants to do is geek out about science and discuss
00:00:15
nothing topical i mean you guys are a total mess
00:00:21
and you [Â __Â ] i'm present i've been present present i've been
00:00:26
waiting for two weeks social media
00:00:37
i'm coming in hot i've been waiting two weeks to go off three two one
00:00:43
[Music] rain man [Music]
00:00:49
david source it to the fans and they've just gone [Music]
00:00:56
crazy okay everybody welcome back to the all in podcast we took two weeks off for
00:01:02
vacation uh with us to vacation from cation uh saks is off his boat and
00:01:09
ready to go uh after the tremendous boat episode friedberg who david why are you working
00:01:15
from an irs office [Music] [Laughter] dave sanchez
00:01:22
has joined a call center which call center this is david sacks from the call-in app can i set up your podcast
00:01:28
for you please better [Â __Â ] get here by tonight okay yeah you better play [Â __Â ] cards bestie this is better you
00:01:34
better [Â __Â ] show up this last year mr beast is showing up mr beast is gonna play cards and he plays eight
00:01:41
queen eight off suit to crack phil it's gonna be very entertaining all right i'm flying back this afternoon it's mr beast
00:01:48
alan muth this is gonna be [Â __Â ] fireworks
00:01:57
you're eight seats locked up wait what time does it start [Â __Â ] seven to seven a.m no it's good
00:02:02
is your uh is your guesthouse taken no you can stay in the guesthouse if you want great
00:02:08
here we go no we started we stayed in the shop david we started this is the ship yes david we start at six but uh
00:02:14
we're gonna break for dinner as normal at seven so get here by [Â __Â ] i'll come i gotta have dinner with my kids i
00:02:19
haven't seen him in a month so uh all right just so you do you remember
00:02:24
their names and there's three of them okay
00:02:30
yeah yeah there's three i'll come after dinner okay all right okay good good here we go uh first topic of the day is
00:02:37
no you didn't do the intros [Â __Â ] all right three two no no you already did that part just introduced the you started with sucks
00:02:43
and you didn't say myself did you become the director okay sit down scorsese all right with us again
00:02:49
the dictator himself chamoth paulie hapatia back from his italian castle fresh off his italian castle retreat uh
00:02:57
one button up maybe we should call you the duke instead of the dictator yeah because you've really taken this this
00:03:03
italian nobility thing to heart you know jason invaded my my castle
00:03:10
he ravaged my toilets he literally had
00:03:16
he co-opted the butler he co-opted the chef and when he would bicycle his best life i'll be totally honest for
00:03:22
a while he would bicycle he would bicycle back to the to the house the gate would close
00:03:28
and they would scurry out with two little cokes a huge glass filled with ice i was so confused when i was like
00:03:34
what's going on he's like uh mr jason mr jason mr jason what percent of your book did you write
00:03:41
jkl um well a non-fiction book typically 60 000 is the target so i'm going to
00:03:46
write 60 and then try to edit it down to 50 and i got the first 10 done okay i'm sorry on the on the plane
00:03:53
as well as at my house jason read us the intro i'm not going to say what they're about or the title of the book the first
00:03:59
couple chapters it's [Â __Â ] amazing both the idea no no no legit the idea is
00:04:06
amazing the title is fantastic and what he's written so far is
00:04:11
exceptional i was genuinely like it's great it's really really great well a lot of it was informed by the
00:04:16
discussions we've been having here uh of course back in the mix is friedberg the queen of quinoa
00:04:22
uh in front of some kmart artwork um that he purchased for his new house
00:04:28
uh how are you doing queen uh how do you feeling about your decision to not come to italy with us
00:04:34
yeah queen i want to talk about it hey can we uh can we tell our best italy story
00:04:39
oh my god i don't know what the best there's a lot of best italy stories well i want to tell two stories and one of them is the joke i didn't make at the
00:04:46
speech which i thought was the best [Â __Â ] joke and i want to just get your reaction so i'm just gonna tell it okay
00:04:52
so just to give a little background here our friend's 50th birthday two of our friends had 50th birthdays me
00:04:58
and our other friend and so we were in uh italy for a week as a group playing cards and celebrating those two
00:05:05
birthdays the joke i didn't make was the following joke which is all right guys i just want this is for friend number one
00:05:12
redacted yeah redacted yeah uh i just want to call out the elephant in the room you know there's really someone very very
00:05:18
famous amongst us uh oh you know he's known uh to be one of the richest men in the world he's known
00:05:25
um you know to really uh love rockets he throws you know up rockets all the time
00:05:31
um the despotic leader of north korea is here kim jong-un everybody and i point
00:05:36
to dc
00:05:43
wow you can't tell that joke because because it would in context of you know obviously it would have been a very yeah
00:05:49
uh all right and uh yeah it was just a great trip i have to say uh
00:05:55
yeah my italy story is that so the second birthday is j cal the first birthday is a friend to remain nameless
00:06:02
the second birthday redacted the second birthday was j cow's 50th then we find out that jkl's birthday was actually
00:06:08
like six months ago six months ago no november 28th yeah nobody nobody cared and frankly none of us went to italy for
00:06:14
jake how's birthday we went from the instagram guys we went to the other guy's party
00:06:20
yeah jake howe's birthday is like coveted he keeps trying to bring it back in different variants and no one wants
00:06:25
any part of it
00:06:32
so on the last night the last night of the trip we had the j cow birthday party and what do they serve pizza i mean like
00:06:39
because it's on j cow's dime i mean the rest of the week we had this like magnificent well you throw my birthday party for me
00:06:45
snacks you didn't even throw in any bread sticks i mean he was like he just door dash domino's we had truffle pizza
00:06:53
unlimited truffles it was delicious i think it was the best meal i think you're just a little jealous because the dinner you hosted maybe didn't hit the
00:07:00
notes you wanted to hit sax oh my god are you serious we brought in i mean he flew in a [Â __Â ] troop from blasphemy
00:07:06
he flew to circle food i was talking about the pizza versus you know by the way i just want to say that that whole
00:07:12
circus thing in this in the water uh i got so mad at one of my kids because it was so dark and the kids were
00:07:18
in the pool yeah he kept diving yeah and i kept saying stop i can't see you
00:07:25
and so i was just like he never none of the kids should have been in the pool i agree with that and the truth of the matter is you know my five years old was
00:07:32
in the pool too and all i could do was keep an eye on him keep in mind i was so worried about it i was playing lifeguard with my friends i didn't enjoy the show
00:07:39
for that reason yeah me too they had the time with their lives yes they loved it and actually that was that
00:07:45
was definitely worth it and the day before i want to give credit to saks because saks and i went down to that restaurant and we made
00:07:52
them open up the wine closet we rated it we found the best three bottles of wine and we brought them back for everybody
00:07:59
and then and then i'm not sure if you remember this we taped an episode of call in in which uh i was a little drunk
00:08:04
yeah i was drunk i was confused yeah so anyway the whole world can listen to us drunk on call in in uh we're launching
00:08:10
on september 2nd so nice congrats yeah that's gonna be a big deal and uh congratulations to the all
00:08:18
in syndicate members who wet their beaks and to my syndicate members uh people don't know this but it was the
00:08:24
absolute record we've ever had for any syndicate i believe at the end of the day we had 150 slots and we had 950
00:08:31
people apply sacs amazing we had a million or so in allocation and i think
00:08:36
we had seven million in demand i
00:08:43
yes i'm really excited about this product it's the best game you've been involved in creating it's better than
00:08:48
yammer it's better than paypal spicy take wow
00:08:57
daddy daddy got a little tasty poop sex don't hurt your um don't hurt your elbow patting yourself on the back there but
00:09:03
go ahead continue you got a little product manager elbow there paddington don't dislocate your
00:09:09
triceps feedback we've gotten from users has been incredible i mean it's just the reactions tell you what's good about it
00:09:15
here's here's what i think you nailed um as a person who's been in podcasting for over a decade um the critical
00:09:24
aspect of this is when you pop up your club or room on call-in
00:09:30
it creates a podcast out of it with an rss feed and you can go listen to the previous
00:09:36
show so if you are listening to this and you wanted to create your own version of all in you could do
00:09:43
it on call-in just get three of your knucklehead friends and talk about your adventures on boats and private jets and drinking
00:09:49
fine wine wherever you are and you can start your own podcast yeah it's not really expensive why not included right it's not the key insight
00:09:56
it's not about the room it's about the show you know like everything we think of as social audio is really just a feature of
00:10:02
creating a show creating a new podcast and uh so anyway people really like it i'm very excited september some shows
00:10:09
have been created in the beta this is the thing that's blowing me away is like well over a hundred i think maybe a
00:10:14
couple of hundred if you go to the show directory you and and the cover art that people have created is really elaborate
00:10:20
you know people are really getting into it i've said this because you're a phenomenal you're a phenomenal uh product builder
00:10:27
so i think this is really exciting yeah under underrated product builder i would say but it's just interesting that this doesn't exist somebody should have made
00:10:34
this already like there's zen casser and riverside for recording podcasts there's libsyn for hosting them what uh
00:10:41
what's happened as a as a protected minority i'd like to ask this question what happens what's happening to clubhouse
00:10:48
um i think it's irrelevant i'll be talking i don't want to dunk on founders but um i think that
00:10:55
they uh why can't they just do these features it sounds like i mean i'm
00:11:02
for sure i think they will copy it at some point yeah but but i think that so it's a good it's a good question and i
00:11:07
really think there's different visions here so i mean i've listened to their founder talk about his vision and it's very much
00:11:13
about creating this live serendipitous type experience like kind of like a cocktail party and that's fine we're not
00:11:19
doing that we're creating long tail podcasting is what we're doing and my experience is informed by what we've all
00:11:24
been doing on the show for last year and a half which is podcasting right and the thing that i've seen that i didn't know
00:11:29
until we did the all-in pod is how much work goes into what j-cal does behind the scenes it's incredible we got nick
00:11:36
doing six hours of post-production on the show i want to automate all that work away so anybody can do what we do
00:11:42
and that's like a very different vision no offense nick no i mean
00:11:48
not everybody is gonna want to put the type of post-production into this they don't have you know i've got
00:11:54
six people on our podcast team like it's not everybody's got that infrastructure so over time you'll build that i believe
00:11:59
it uh it'll turn out great all right let's get to our first um topic here uh while we were away
00:12:06
the united states started the process of leaving afghanistan after a 20-year war
00:12:13
uh in which i think it's pretty safe to say that was an unwinnable war and uh we
00:12:20
have failed like the russians did saks had a uh tweet uh that was a well
00:12:25
getting a little bit of play on the old twitter what we're seeing before our eyes is the collapse of the american
00:12:31
empire because the people in charge are completely corrupt and incompetent but we can't talk about that because
00:12:38
insiders can never criticize other insiders the larry summers rule did i
00:12:43
tweet that you did um yeah i mean you might have had a couple of drinks
00:12:48
and then sorry he actually didn't he just texted that in the group okay so that was a confidential text to our
00:12:54
thought to our group that we're not supposed to even say exist well no it's okay don't beep it it's okay i mean it's
00:13:00
it's it's true it's it's not exactly what i tweeted but it's similar to things i've been tweeting
00:13:05
and tragically uh yesterday um isis k which is an afghan affiliate of
00:13:11
the islamic state claimed responsibility for two suicide bombings outside of the
00:13:17
airport and that tragically killed over 100 people 90 afghan citizens and 13 american
00:13:25
service members i guess you know we're not here to talk about
00:13:30
wars it's not exactly in the mandate but everybody wants our opinion on this so let's get started saks you have strong
00:13:36
opinions we'll start with well it's yeah i mean how can you not talk about this this feels to me this is one of those events where you know i was glued to my
00:13:43
tv for days i think i was in france at the time the taliban overrun overran
00:13:48
kabul and yeah it was you know the afghanistan war has been going on for 20 years no one's been talking about it it's just
00:13:54
this thing that's been happening in the background but all along we've been assured by the pentagon that we're
00:14:00
winning hey you know don't worry about this we got this and then you wake up one day and all of a sudden we've lost the war and the taliban's overrunning
00:14:06
the country and you're like what is going on here you know not only is the the botched withdrawal incompetent
00:14:13
the fact that we were lied to for two decades about what was really happening the the idea that we had created you
00:14:19
know we were how many times were we told that we had created this afghan army it was 300 strong we spent
00:14:25
you know two trillion dollars in the country uh you know being and we were told the whole time that we were building institutions there uh that you
00:14:33
know that we were creating a democracy in the middle east that uh we were even you know um promoting gender equality
00:14:40
and uh lecturing the taliban on toxic masculinity or something like that and then we find out one day that poof the
00:14:45
whole thing was just kind of a lie it was this giant debacle and now we can't even get our uh we
00:14:51
can't even get our civilians out of the country not only that but we we've seen 12
00:14:57
people 12 american servicemen and women killed yesterday 13 trying to protect the
00:15:03
airport uh almost 100 um afghans uh now we'd only have to not
00:15:10
only contend with the taliban whose positions i don't think any of us know about but we also have to deal with isis
00:15:16
k which is like some you know offshoot affiliate of isis run by a guy who was actually
00:15:22
summarily killed by the taliban but that didn't clearly stop anybody
00:15:28
the the level of honesty just to say the the the lying
00:15:35
that we've been doing on this topic is just utterly
00:15:41
um it's really really scary you know how could we have gone 20 years
00:15:47
2 trillion dollars 2 400 american lives and counting and found a way to just basically
00:15:55
waste all this money and tell ourselves these lies for so long and it turns out none of it was
00:16:01
true um and then the back half of it is that we look like a little bit of a country
00:16:08
that's sort of in decline because we can't even figure out an orderly withdrawal it's not as if you know this
00:16:15
thing came out of the blue out of nowhere this was a negotiated withdrawal so we had months to plan for this you
00:16:21
know and we had months to do the right honorable moral thing for all of these for for all of these people that helped
00:16:27
us in that country just to give you a a small anecdote you know the day that kabul was overrun
00:16:33
you know the democrats were actually tweeting out about uh celebrating librarian day
00:16:39
that's what they were focused on jason and i on the way back you know i we flew back with my with my mom and my
00:16:46
sister we stopped in toronto to drop them off and the planes beside us jason do you remember this
00:16:52
yeah i think i think brett or paul were telling us my pilots were telling us these planes uh have been going back and
00:16:59
forth saving refugees in afghanistan it's like wow what an honor to just be
00:17:05
beside these these amazingly heroic men and women and you know i don't know jason if you saw but as we were
00:17:11
refueling they came and boarded and they were getting ready to leave again meanwhile that america cannot get
00:17:18
even to a point of view on the topic and i think that's what's so shameful it's like not only did we spend the money not only
00:17:25
did we lose all these lives not only didn't we have an orderly withdrawal we couldn't even at the end guarantee the safety of americans or do the right
00:17:32
thing for all these people who risk their lives to help us fight clearly a useless war freeberg you have lots
00:17:39
watching all this i know you don't like when we delve into politics too much but what do you yeah you have any thoughts
00:17:44
you want to add yeah i don't know if it's about politics as much as um i kind of use a little bit of a
00:17:51
startup analogy like america never really found product market fit with
00:17:56
what we were trying to do in afghanistan there's some fantastic um gallup polling
00:18:04
that's been done in afghanistan uh over the past uh 15 20 years already and they've actually had people on the
00:18:09
ground pulling there and most recently which has been consistent for over 10 years polling
00:18:16
shown that 87 to 90 of afghans said that the government is
00:18:21
corrupt this is the government you know put in power put in place by the united states 90 say businesses are corrupt
00:18:29
and if you go back to a poll they ran in 2010 the question was in general
00:18:35
which of these statements comes closest to your point of view sharia law must be the only source of legislation
00:18:41
56 of the afghan population in 2010 believed that to be true and another 38
00:18:46
percent said sharia law must be a source of legislation but not the only source that leaves just seven percent of people
00:18:53
that think that sharia law should not be is it sharia or sharia sorry sharia law should not be part of the um legislative
00:19:00
process uh in defining the afghan laws and constitution and so um you know it's
00:19:06
really telling that you know it's almost like when you when you start a company and you try and create a product and you sell it to a customer base you got to
00:19:11
figure out what the product is you got to make sure the customers want it and then the the idea for the startup
00:19:18
works the problem here is our views as a nation and maybe western
00:19:23
democracy doesn't necessarily fit with what that market wants and we can certainly make the case that we believe that our ethics
00:19:30
and our values are superior and provide more of an opportunity for individual freedom and liberty things that we believe
00:19:35
should be available around the world but if the market's not buying it the customers don't want it
00:19:41
you're really just raising a ton of venture money trying to create a product that no one really wants and at the end of the day you're you're trillion
00:19:46
dollars down and you have to shut the thing down and it goes bankrupt and that's effectively what went down here
00:19:52
and if you look at the history of afghanistan remember they were in the soviet afghan war in the 80s nearly the entire decade of the 80s then the
00:19:59
taliban came along and provided a degree of stability in the 90s and then all of a sudden this al qaeda
00:20:04
9 911 war began um you know after taliban had been in power for a year and it's been 20 plus years of strife and 20
00:20:12
years of strife and challenge where the population have increasingly viewed the government to be corrupt
00:20:18
businesses to be corrupt and here's a really interesting statistic um which also came out of this polling
00:20:25
that gallup does over the last 10 years the percentage of afghans that are happy with their present household income
00:20:32
has gone or are not happy sorry with their present household income has gone from 60 to 90
00:20:37
9 out of 10 afghans as of last year were not making enough money to make ends meet so you put all of these facts
00:20:44
together you've got this long history of strife with this you know company effectively coming in trying to tell you
00:20:49
how to run your government how to run your your country that doesn't match with your beliefs on on your your the
00:20:54
way you think a government should be built you've got all this turmoil that's happened historically you know it really
00:21:00
was um i would say to some degree this inevitable failure of a startup that got over funded that never found product
00:21:06
market fit that never really got off the ground certainly the exit strategy on how do you wind something down in this case and it certainly relates to human
00:21:12
lives and the tragedy of the partners that we had on the ground um was was totally mishandled but the
00:21:18
broader picture here is like i think it's more corrupt than that i think that we basically engage in a two trillion
00:21:23
dollar wealth transfer from the people of the united states the citizens of the united states to the military-industrial
00:21:29
complex that's what we did well i mean i have two points i want to i want to build on from from yours freeburg and
00:21:35
now yours chamath which is the original mandate here was to go and get rid of al-qaeda and to also
00:21:42
you know kill osama bin laden and to not have uh the taliban
00:21:47
giving safe harbor to al qaeda that quick that mission got accomplished in large part in the first year or two and
00:21:54
then uh when we finally got to osama bin laden in pakistan i think it probably would have been a better
00:22:00
idea to understand this is an unwinnable war get in there destroy the taliban leave and then say if you come back
00:22:07
we'll do it again but we're not going to stay here for 20 years to your point freeburg and try to create a revolution
00:22:12
if the people are not ready for it i think that we have to start looking at our foreign policy and saying we do need we do have
00:22:19
a better view of human rights clearly than the middle east uh and certainly afghanistan and we do want to promote
00:22:26
human rights around the world and freedom we're not doing that we're not we're not we're not freedom fighters of democracy or justice
00:22:33
we should be we are led by motives of revenue and profit i know that but we should be and when we went and we kicked
00:22:38
the nazi's asses and we beat japan when you know they were trying to dominate the world we
00:22:44
were doing it to stop communism and i think when you look at nation building and these these kind of revolutions
00:22:51
to friedberg's point they have to want it as well so we should be working with the countries that are teetering on
00:22:58
going from authoritarianism to democracy and we should take the high ground and we should be the more authority of the
00:23:03
world because if we're not who's going to be i i agree with that part but i think the right thing to do is just to
00:23:09
open our doors and say you know what we're here there's a draft right and the smart and the capable and
00:23:16
the willing we're willing to basically bring uh inside of our borders so that they can work on our behalf and that's
00:23:24
what other countries i think get right about all of this stuff like again as a canadian um you know the canadian
00:23:31
perspective of this is not that you deploy troops and you get embroiled in these you know debacles over 20 years
00:23:37
and thousands of lives and trillions of dollars it's the exact opposite they're there to support humanitarian efforts
00:23:44
right they're there to send peacekeeping forces as they need to but otherwise their real response is to actually then
00:23:50
open the borders for folks that want to be there who are then wanting to trade up jason to those values because that's
00:23:56
the simple way to self-select instead of saying i'm going to impose my version of democracy over there i'm actually going
00:24:02
to show you what our version looks like over here and if you want to come the doors are open certainly being an example is step one and we i think do
00:24:09
that largely well but we do need to sometimes intervene and i think that's the question here is when is it just to
00:24:15
intervene when there is human rights on the line and the country is teetering on
00:24:20
authoritarianism or democracy like where is that line the just cause here was to go get osama bin laden because he
00:24:27
attacked us and we should have gotten out of that country as soon as we realized that bin laden was no longer
00:24:32
there i mean that was basically after the battle of tora bora and if we didn't leave then we certainly should have left
00:24:38
after we got bin laden in around 2010. so what were we still doing there we were engaged in this exercise of nation
00:24:45
building which by the way we spent six trillion dollars on nation-building exercises in the middle east between
00:24:50
afghanistan and iraq uh for what for not this is why the electorate is in such a foul mood how many of our domestic
00:24:57
disputes are caused by the fact that we squandered that six trillion dollars that's more than uh biden's entire
00:25:02
domestic agenda um you know so we wasted all this money to freeberg's point we never understood
00:25:09
the culture there and to jamaa's point it was a giant money funneling operation to defense contractors
00:25:16
there was a great piece of reporting by an independent journalist named michael tracy and he talked to frontline grunts
00:25:23
about the wasteful spending you know they would send 12 humvees to some local afghan partner only two of
00:25:29
them would ever get there the other 10 would would break down and disappear and no one would even know where all the money went it was like an unbelievable
00:25:36
orgy of wastefulness and um you know one other important detail on this there there's a a a guy who i think
00:25:43
should be much more famous to all of us uh his name is john f sopko he's the special inspector uh general for
00:25:49
afghanistan reconstruction uh that short for cigar he was appointed by congress about 13 years ago to look into what was
00:25:56
really happening in afghanistan and to report on quote unquote lessons learned from the afghan war and so for
00:26:02
13 years sapco has been very quietly diligently interviewing
00:26:07
people from everyone from front frontline troops to commanders about what's really been happening in afghanistan and he's been releasing
00:26:13
these reports that everyone in dc knows about but nobody in the country knows about let me just read you
00:26:20
these are just the chapter titles from his latest report okay oh jesus just the chapter titles harmful spending
00:26:27
patterns resistance to honesty personnel struggles willful disregard for critical
00:26:33
information incorrect theories of change poor understanding of local context and
00:26:39
by the way that includes ignoring things like the sexual abuse of young boys by afghan warlords who are our allies okay
00:26:46
which the new york times reported on we completely swept that under the rug okay that's just a table of contents okay
00:26:53
from one of his latest reports which is about 100 pages complete incompetence on our in our government complete waste the
00:26:58
pentagon was telling us the whole time i mean while this guy sopco the cigar you know the special inspector general was
00:27:05
telling us the truth of what was happening you've got the pentagon telling us and the elected leaders the
00:27:10
whole time that we're winning this war that things are improving they had all these uh bogus metrics to prove it
00:27:17
and you know and so it's just it's a systemic failure but sex what would be their motivation
00:27:22
to say it's not working look i i think i think that oh right we'll be the motorbike
00:27:28
you can't you can't fix what you don't measure and so basically like if you want to lie there there you have it we have that now
00:27:35
for 20 years of lying let's talk about the metrics because this is actually an important point but this is my point it's like what what's
00:27:41
what what's the objective for them to be measured what's the objective in that case
00:27:47
know the objective is to demonstrate leadership the objective is to basically say you know what this is really not
00:27:52
working and this is about putting yourself in the position of a person whose child is over there okay
00:28:00
if any of our children were there who signed up because they thought they wanted to do the right thing and and and
00:28:07
you know be in the army or the navy or the marines found themselves in afghanistan
00:28:12
got killed god heaven forbid and then that body comes back and there's this report comes with it
00:28:19
which is effectively what it is okay this is the coda to the death of two point you know 2400 americans and two
00:28:26
trillion dollars i would be so heartbroken i am heartbroken just thinking about this
00:28:31
like this is not that's not what we're about so we can't keep doing this and we can't
00:28:36
keep lying we can't rationalize lying anymore right well i agree with that and let me
00:28:43
just speak to the point about the metrics because the problem was not that we didn't have any metrics the problem is that the metrics were bogus now why
00:28:49
is that well first of all the mission was very unclear it's not clear how you measure the success
00:28:56
of transforming a country to afghanistan like afghanistan to our values i mean what what really are the metrics for
00:29:01
that so what the military started doing is not measuring outputs but measuring inputs so you have you know the
00:29:08
commander's on the ground saying well today we trained a thousand new afghan troops okay but what they don't say is
00:29:15
that over 90 of those troops are illiterate and 85 of them are on drugs i mean and this is what the journalists
00:29:21
who are on the ground when they would do the interviews with these you know with these uh you know frontline
00:29:26
commanders or trainers they would find this out now why wasn't this in the report well because the military is a
00:29:33
culture that's based on advancement it's basically the pentagon is a big country club it's a big insiders club there's a
00:29:39
dogma the dogma was we're winning the war and if you want to advance in that organization you're not going to be the
00:29:44
one you're not going to be the skunk at the garden party who tells the generals that they're full of [Â __Â ] you're
00:29:50
basically the guy who gives them the metrics they want to hear and then their boss the the person who's the boss of
00:29:55
the front line guy is going to improve things 20 percent he's going to shade things another 20
00:30:01
and then the next guy in the chain of command shades sings 20 and by the time you get all the way to the top
00:30:06
the chairman of the chiefs is telling biden we have a an army that's 300 000 strong these guys are going to take over
00:30:12
the country we're not going to have a problem we're going to have plenty of time to get our people out and that is why we had a lackadaisical withdrawal
00:30:19
strategy these guys thought they had all the time in the world because systemically they've been bullshitting themselves about having a 300 000 man
00:30:25
afghan army and then you know when you actually look under the hood of this thing there is no army is this basically
00:30:31
a bunch of kleptocracy i think what happened at the end of this thing
00:30:36
is even more dangerous for the future on top of everything you said david which i agree with is that what we basically
00:30:43
said is that we will engage in whatever cover-up is necessary because we're not willing to lead and talk about the
00:30:49
mistakes we've made and to do the things that are necessary to really fix it and that's what's really [Â __Â ] sad because
00:30:55
as he said as you said saks the minute that you knew that uh bin laden wasn't there we had a
00:31:01
choice then the minute you knew that he was already dead we had a choice and the choice was to do
00:31:07
the [Â __Â ] right thing and instead what happened was we got caught up in virtue signaling we got
00:31:13
caught up in personal advancement we got caught up in the grift we got caught up in graft we got caught up in corruption
00:31:20
we got caught up in the you know military industrial complex and here's here's where we are and the crazy thing
00:31:25
is biden had a moment where he could have stepped in and said you know what guys i'm looking at all of
00:31:32
this data here's the new plan and he didn't do it either let me ask you a question if biden had run an
00:31:39
orderly exit and then it spiraled into taliban and reverted back to what it was
00:31:44
how would you feel about all this sex i think i think that would have been that's the goal right trump wanted to get out yes and biden both wanted to get
00:31:51
so if you just executed twice as good or 50 better there'd be no problem here we all want to be out correct yes that that
00:31:57
decision the decision to get out was a seventy percent popular decision when biden made the decision in april and
00:32:03
then they didn't when trump made it last time because he did a bipartisan
00:32:09
to get out let's not pretend otherwise it was clearly the correct decision to get out but here's where biden screwed
00:32:14
it up okay and there's some blame that needs to be apportioned to biden into the to the generals and we don't really
00:32:20
know who screwed it up but collectively they did the big mistake the original sin of this withdrawal is that they
00:32:26
pulled out of bagram airfield at the beginning of july okay they didn't just pull out they literally
00:32:32
ghosted the afghan i mean they pulled out in the middle of the night without telling anybody the afghans uh army who are our
00:32:39
allies woke up the next morning and the americans were just gone and the electricity had been turned off i mean
00:32:45
this was unbelievable and so the problem is we then lost our air superiority over the country we lost
00:32:51
our ability to conduct close combat air support we lost our ability to do a mass evacuation okay we
00:32:57
basically gave up our central military asset in the country before we got the civilians out before we got our allies
00:33:03
out and there were 18 000 of these so-called civs the special immigration visas these are the afghani uh
00:33:09
translators and helpers who are embedded in our combat unit units we the the state department meanwhile
00:33:15
was totally caught up in bureaucracy slow walking their applications those 18 000 translators are now stuck there okay
00:33:22
they have 50 000 dependents we're talking about spouses and that so they have no way of getting out and then the final thing that just
00:33:28
takes the cake is that we gave a list to the taliban of here's our biggest helpers when if they
00:33:35
go to the checkpoints we want you to let them my lord so there's basically an assassination this is your kill list
00:33:43
i mean this is really unforgivable and it's and it's and this was it's not like this was unknown okay there was a
00:33:48
bipartisan working group of both democrats and republicans who wrote a letter to blinken at the state
00:33:54
department back in may saying we are afraid of about the safety of our afghan
00:33:59
allies you need to get them out now the state department is taking too long processing the special immigration visas
00:34:05
you're totally caught up in red tape bureaucracies solve this problem blinken did nothing he was another deer caught
00:34:11
in the headlights they could have also just uh instead of making people fill out all these forms and all this red
00:34:18
tape i heard one commenter saying like the right thing to do in situations like this is to just get everybody out put
00:34:23
them in a holding uh location and then process them there in other words if
00:34:28
this person says they're translating their family and they have you know relatively good paperwork get them out
00:34:33
put them into that holding pattern and then figure out how to process them later we got to wrap on this discussion
00:34:39
get to some other topics but the interesting thing to watch here is what's going to be the future of
00:34:44
afghanistan and i don't know if you guys saw the financial time story but china is watching this uh like a hawk and they
00:34:53
russia are just sitting there laughing well china is even worse they have aspirations of partnership in this
00:35:00
region with pakistan already and afghanistan and building super highways and expanding their train network and
00:35:06
having their own silk road essentially to to get to the middle east from china
00:35:12
and this is going to be the uh axis of the united states
00:35:17
authoritarianism by biden asked putin if it was okay for us to stage military resources from
00:35:23
you know from from from close quarters in asia and uh putin was like no go jason i think what you what you just
00:35:30
pointed out is the motivating factor for um having a presence in this and
00:35:36
other similar similarly situated territories around the world yeah a lot of people assume it's about imperialism
00:35:44
and imposing kind of american democratic principles and ideals i think that's the way the narrative is sold internally
00:35:49
here at this country but the truth from the intelligence community and i think the folks that maybe are a little bit
00:35:55
more thoughtful and long-term thinking about this sort of stuff is that the absence of an american presence in
00:36:00
certain parts of the world will enable um the uh the success of what we would
00:36:06
consider competing states globally and you know there is still that unanswered question ultimately of how do
00:36:12
we compete on a global stage given what is currently
00:36:18
a very negative view on our having a presence overseas a military presence overseas a physical presence overseas
00:36:25
in these sorts of territories and it begs the question of does that really set us up for challenges and failures in
00:36:30
the 21st century as a nation state um as the other global players in particular china you know take advantage
00:36:36
of these openings yeah well i i agree with that and let me just let me just say why china is so smart and we are so
00:36:42
dumb china is going to afghanistan right now and cutting deals with the taliban to build a highway so they can get to the
00:36:48
rare earth minerals which afghanistan is rich in and they're going to use the super highway they're
00:36:54
going to build to get that out and feed their economy that is how they're going to spend their capital in afghanistan
00:37:00
meanwhile we spent over 2 trillion we have nothing to show for it you know they go abroad in search of rare earth
00:37:06
minerals we go there to lecture people on toxic masculinity it is absurd
00:37:11
okay now the the president well you know what sex it's a little too cynical we were also protected
00:37:18
we were educating women don't
00:37:24
they them it's very important that's right we go there to lecture people on their pronouns no that that's just far
00:37:30
too cynical we went there to protect some people who wanted democracy and to allow women to
00:37:36
read and to be oh i'm sorry we just flushed that we just flushed that right down the toilet sorry
00:37:42
i know that we do we do not conflate that we just want elections but david david is right we knew that the minute
00:37:47
we pulled out we were casting 50 percent of that population to a complete state of
00:37:55
stasis that was completely not known so what are you saying sacks that we should have stayed there with some presents
00:38:00
well this is this is like the argument in vietnam we should have just told the truth we're leaving we don't have a plan and this is
00:38:07
going to risk all women it's going to risk people that helped us and we are not sure what's going to happen but you know what we decided we're leaving that
00:38:14
was the truth remember remember the vietnam war we killed two million vietnamese to make
00:38:19
the country safe for democracy you know what the vietnamese at the end of that we'd rather have our two million people back we see these wars in terms of
00:38:25
ideology we think we're going there to spread democracy they see it in terms of nationalism all they see is a foreign
00:38:31
invader trying to impose their values that's why they don't buy into what we're doing and by the way the whole
00:38:37
idea that we're going to plant madisonian democracy in the soil of the middle east that was a 20-year folly
00:38:44
that cost us trillions and one of the reasons why there are no madisons over there there are no madisons there are no
00:38:50
jeffersons there are no washington's who is going to take up that cause what we had in afghanistan is this president
00:38:56
ghani who's a crook who was off on the first helicopter with millions of our dollars that is how stupid we are
00:39:03
it's the last place we should be trying to do democracy there's other places where it's teetering and we can probably
00:39:08
be more helpful the american president john quincy adams this is back when america had a rational foreign policy he
00:39:14
said america does not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy that used to be our
00:39:20
foreign policy now we involve ourselves all over the world to impose our values
00:39:25
for no reasons it is costing us a fortune and it has led to the crumbling
00:39:30
of the america of of american wealth and power and it completely erodes
00:39:37
our trust in institutions particularly the institution of the federal government and we're left just scratching our heads
00:39:43
saying if not these guys then who is going to say what is that what are we doing if uh chamath and uh sacks if you're
00:39:51
don't know if you don't want to support democracy in the world what happens to taiwan in your world this signed taiwan's death
00:39:57
war i'm sorry but you should just assume we should just let taiwan go no my point is the following taiwan will when the when
00:40:05
prc has the right window be under complete chinese control and we because
00:40:11
of how we have executed this and how we've executed the rest of our middle asia strategy means that we will not
00:40:18
really engage and the reason is because it will be an enormous food fight inside
00:40:23
the united states where all of these past experiences of us [Â __Â ] this up will come up should we defend taiwan
00:40:29
except by the way the difference is we're not going to we would not be going to war with a bunch of like [Â __Â ]
00:40:35
tribal people in the mountains carrying sticks and ak-47s from the 80s this is
00:40:41
china so if we can't beat and win in afghanistan
00:40:46
i mean we also what are our jed i mean i'm sorry guys but the chances alone it's not worth it
00:40:52
with a group of japan south korea australia and the eu we
00:40:58
should be defending taiwan in my mind what do you think freeburg should we try and defend taiwan when this inevitably
00:41:03
leads to the chinese government finding their window as chamath is predicting again i don't think that the motivating
00:41:09
factor could necessarily be imposing democratic principles
00:41:16
as the priority if you were to to to actually weigh that decision
00:41:23
you would realize that you should probably have a presence in some latin american countries you should probably have a
00:41:30
presence in central africa where there are authoritarian regimes that are doing terrible things but we don't have a competing global
00:41:37
interest there to defend against well it should be clear taiwan is right now democratic so
00:41:43
we would be defending a democracy free brook jkl's asking a specific question if china invades taiwan do you think the
00:41:50
united states should get involved on a principles basis or do i think the united states will get involved either
00:41:56
one yeah i mean i think the challenge is the escalation with china right so that's going to be the big calculus it's really
00:42:02
about what's the what's the long-term cost certainly on a principal basis you'd say let's go defend the weak and
00:42:08
go protect them because they share principles and ideals with us but the the backlash the challenge would be if
00:42:15
we were to do this global trade would stall there would be um massive
00:42:20
issues at home with people saying that we're getting involved in an overseas war all of the reasons that from a political perspective it would stall our
00:42:26
economy it will cause all these you know i'm kind of speculating a bit here but the actual
00:42:31
cost isn't just about sending a few thousand troops over and surrounding the island and protecting people it's actually much more severe than that and
00:42:38
if you were to weigh it it could be that we end up with 25 30 million people losing their jobs over the next decade
00:42:44
because of the economic fallout that occurs um in our doing that and so on and so forth and a lot of american
00:42:49
prosperity that we get to enjoy um you know kind of kind of declines and so that's the real calculus and i don't
00:42:55
know how to do that calculus but i think that is the calculus that is being done by the intelligence community to figure
00:43:00
out the answer to that question let's swing it to saks to do a little bit more of this calculus because what we're talking about here is not giving up an
00:43:05
authoritarian state right that wants to be authoritarian we're talking about a democracy on the risk board yeah it
00:43:10
would be taken and flipped from a democracy in like hong kong has been flipped i think it's a i think it's a
00:43:16
very important distinction that taiwan is already a democracy they got there on
00:43:21
their own they've done a lot of hard work building that country since uh that basically that the country became
00:43:27
separate from mainland china i think in 1945 it's never been under the control of the ccp
00:43:33
it's uh it's a free enterprise system it's democratic capitalism there are basically 24 million free souls who live
00:43:40
on that island and if we show any weakness and we frankly already have by what we've done in the middle
00:43:46
east if we show any weakness they will fall under the boot of the communist regime
00:43:52
so i think it's there's a big difference between trying to plant democracy or nation build uh verse in a country
00:43:58
that's never had it before in thousands of years and basically being friends and allies with a country that already is a
00:44:04
democracy and just wants to be free and i think our message to china should just be we like things the way they are
00:44:11
we don't want them to change that's it we have a policy of what's called strategic ambiguity to taiwan it
00:44:17
basically says that we may come to the defense of taiwan or we may not and i think we should just
00:44:24
continue with that policy i think our message should just be we like the status quo we don't think it should change let's leave things alone i think
00:44:30
that that's fine but i think we need to be investing hundreds of billions the trillions of dollars we wasted in
00:44:36
afghanistan could have been better served building an infrastructure in america for chips and semiconductors and
00:44:42
a bunch of these critical components because then it would give us a lot more bargaining room
00:44:48
to uh actually be able to play out that strategic ambiguity more fully i think
00:44:53
the reality is that despite the policy framework the practical economic reality is that we would be engulfed in a war if
00:45:00
if taiwan were taken over by china because as friedrich said our economy would ground to a halt
00:45:06
because those critical assets are linchpins for how massive swaths of the
00:45:11
american economy work yeah i'll tell you one thing we should be making plans for i don't know if our military is
00:45:16
competent enough but we've talked on this pod before about how what 70 percent of the advanced chips come out
00:45:22
of taiwan companies like tsmc if china takes over that island i mean
00:45:27
those chips are the new oil right we're going to be dependent on them in a way we never should be for our supply chain
00:45:32
you're right your mouth we never should have gotten this dependent but frankly our military needs to have a plan to
00:45:38
sabotage those chip factories because we can't let them fall under the control of the ccp
00:45:43
um i don't know if they're confident enough to do that but but if taiwan falls it needs to be a poison chalice
00:45:48
for the ccp we're going to need to make some decisions here because russia with crimea and the ukraine and their
00:45:54
ambitions and then china taking over hong kong and looking at taiwan i mean
00:46:00
i think the lesson here is if you're a dictator and you are allowed to take over other regions and other
00:46:06
you know countries you're not going to stop it's the nature of dictators and we have to at least put our foot down you
00:46:11
know afghanistan's a [Â __Â ] show but these other places we're flat-footed right now jkl we're still i know that's why this
00:46:18
is a serious problem so and so we need to we need to sort of like re-center ourselves and get momentum you know you
00:46:23
to use a poker analogy we basically just bluffed off half our stack with the jack eight off suit and then
00:46:30
and then when you get the ace king suited you have no chips to play with yeah right you know and you're just like
00:46:35
yesterday credibility basically 911 911 put us on tilt okay
00:46:41
and we've been losing pots for the last 20 years and now we just lost the big one and the question is to jamaa's point
00:46:47
are we going to lose the rest of our stack or we're going to go take a walk around the block like mute recenter or something
00:46:53
time to recenter on the re-centering thing china is going in the opposite direction
00:46:58
in a way that could actually help us meaning like you know it's uh it's a pretty scary
00:47:04
set of things that's happening over there but it's also a kind of instructive about how we could recenter ourselves because there's they're
00:47:10
actually enacting the laws that we all talk about we've been talking about for seven months but they're actually willing to do it and they and so if
00:47:17
american policy makers would actually should we pivot to what's going on over there with the china or should we go to robotics uh let's let's finish china and
00:47:24
then we can and then and then we can talk about china is continuing their uh crackdown of tech companies uh and has
00:47:30
proposed a ban on foreign ipos uh the wall street journal had some exclusive
00:47:35
reporting today i'll just read a quote and then hand it over to chamath china plans to propose new rules that would
00:47:41
ban companies with large amounts of sensitive consumer data from going public in the us people familiar with
00:47:47
the matter said and in addition to that uh under these new rules they are looking at the
00:47:53
algorithms that are being run uh and different services and making them transparent and the chinese government
00:47:59
will basically control the algorithms that have caused so much chaos here in the united states with facebook and
00:48:05
twitter and youtube and then finally they're going to close the loophole on v i e's champion want to explain what this
00:48:12
means from a market perspective today's a really big day um because of these things jason as you
00:48:18
just said so let me just break this down because i think it's interesting for us to all learn about this together so
00:48:23
one thing is around the technology which i'll talk about in a second which you just
00:48:28
talked about and then previewed and then the the second is around the capital markets and the money flow and that and
00:48:34
this is a really big deal so what is a vie because you're going to hear this a
00:48:39
lot a vie is what's called a variable interest entity and what it is is just a
00:48:46
massive workaround so essentially what happened was uh a vi was a legal
00:48:52
business where you know an entity had control of a company okay through a contract but not through
00:48:59
equity so it's kind of like you know saks like i had a contract with colin that said i can dictate you know who
00:49:05
does what etc but i don't own any equity now the the company that completely ran afoul of all of these things was enron
00:49:13
and back in 2001 enron went [Â __Â ] ham as we all know they had a bunch of these
00:49:18
vies and they used it to basically shield a bunch of losses and do a bunch of shady things so then there was a
00:49:25
bunch of accounting laws that were introduced china on a completely separate track around
00:49:31
that same time was like hey listen we want to control our economy so we're going to prohibit foreign ownership so
00:49:36
just for all you guys to know china to this day does not allow a foreigner to own a
00:49:42
piece large sections of the chinese economy okay so as of 2018 which is the last
00:49:47
updated list as far as i could find it there are 33 sectors of the economy where china says you cannot be a
00:49:52
foreigner and own any equity you have to have a local partner no you cannot own any equity except if
00:49:59
you want to start a business there you have to have like a partner like yahoo did so all technology companies fall
00:50:04
under this all data companies any education company any media company so you can imagine it's basically every
00:50:10
part of the economy that matters and so with because of all these restrictions you know the chinese internet companies
00:50:15
were like hey hold on a second i need to get access to the capital markets what do i do
00:50:21
they dusted off the vie structure and they basically created all of these um
00:50:26
you know caymans holding companies and that's where all the american investors would go and buy equity from or
00:50:33
contribute equity to and so you know 10 cent alibaba baidu dd.com jd all of these folks have these
00:50:41
vis and what's interesting about these vies is it's written clear as day but not a
00:50:47
single investor seemed to care but in the prospectuses of these chinese companies they were clear it doesn't
00:50:53
mean you actually have a claim on the assets it doesn't mean you can actually make a demand of management i mean if
00:50:59
you saw this in an american prospectus you would not put a single dollar into these companies but in fact the exact
00:51:05
opposite happened because people were greedy and chasing the money and
00:51:10
and these risks by the way came back to bear because jason i think you were the one that gave the example of the chinese
00:51:16
tutoring guys where you know overnight this guy lost 99 of his net worth i think this was a one or two pods ago
00:51:23
the way they did that was that they cancelled the vis they said online tutoring nope sorry these things can't exist anymore
00:51:31
and so essentially we have the situation now where uh vis are part of
00:51:37
58 companies uh massive chinese mega cap companies
00:51:42
that are in the huge indexes in in the united states these 58 companies account for two trillion dollars of market cap
00:51:48
we are we are we are now in a situation now where the chinese government basically says for online tutoring we're
00:51:54
going to cancel the vis in a bunch of other areas we're going to start with regulation we could cancel the vis later
00:52:01
and so we've essentially put the capital markets in my opinion on pause and so
00:52:06
now let's transition to this in china capital markets in china i think now are the most volatile they've
00:52:13
ever been essentially the people's republic of china the government the ccp chooses
00:52:19
how and who will make money and they are basically putting their foot down in a big way in the capital what happens
00:52:26
to the 1.62 trillion in existing shares that have been bought by people around the world would there be some way to
00:52:32
unravel that or a tender offer you're going to have to de-list these adrs i don't exactly know what would happen i
00:52:38
think what's unprecedented you have capital loss jason because when they canceled the online tutoring vis
00:52:43
the stock prices basically went to zero so you could eviscerate two trillion dollars of market cap tomorrow if they
00:52:49
decide you know what that vie for alibaba by the way nick i'll send it to you but it's a it's a thing of art if
00:52:54
you look at the vie structure for baba i mean it is a [Â __Â ] babushka doll of nesting entities and
00:53:01
this or that i don't know how any investor who bought shares in alibaba
00:53:07
actually took the time to understand what they were actually buying they suspended disbelief because they were
00:53:12
greedy so so the point is that's happening okay so the the capital markets are now i think getting uh
00:53:18
really constrained the complement to this is that they're starting to now introduce legislation as a prelude in my
00:53:25
opinion to canceling some of these vies in the most important area that we care about which is tech so jason to your
00:53:32
point the chinese cyberspace watchdog today or yesterday i think it was they
00:53:37
just published a list of draft regulations that will now become law i'm
00:53:42
just going to read this to you so let me just just fyi for you guys so let me just give you a sense of them users must
00:53:49
be provided with a convenient way to see and delete all the keywords that an algorithm uses to profile them number
00:53:56
two providers providers shall not record illegal and
00:54:01
undesirable keywords in the user points of interest or as user tags and push information content to them and they may
00:54:08
not become discriminatory or biased based on that information
00:54:13
users must be informed that algorithms are being used on them to recommend content or products to them and they
00:54:19
must be allowed to opt out and see completely generic non-personalized results
00:54:25
the algorithm recommendation shall adhere to main this is incredible to mainstream values i don't know what that
00:54:31
means they must harmony in china they must actively spread positive energy and promote the
00:54:37
application of algorithms for the better providers shall regularly review and evaluate and verify these algorithms
00:54:44
models and data with these watchdogs these watchdogs will now start to increasingly take
00:54:50
board seats on the comp on on chinese companies so you put these two things together it is
00:54:56
a typical moment in china tech it's a takeover yes yes i mean so so some of
00:55:01
those provisions sound like you know privacy regulations we might want to adopt over here completely but i think
00:55:08
we should focus on the one towards the end that you mentioned the algorithm recommendation service provider shall adhere to mainstream
00:55:14
values actively spread positive energy and promote applications for the better now how do you actively
00:55:20
spread positive energy i mean as a business person under that regulation like what does that even mean
00:55:27
i mean it basically means it means what you're not spreading david it means you're not spreading a protest
00:55:33
in hong kong it means you're not talking about the uyghurs it means you're not talking about tiananmen square you're not
00:55:38
creating social unrest this is a way for them to say you know positive energy means don't
00:55:44
criticize xi jinping or the ccp or bring up topics that are in the no-fly zone like the weakers well they're they're
00:55:50
they're going to have content moderation guidelines yeah they're bringing it all under their control that's what it's about i mean these this is the type of
00:55:55
thing that despite all of our problems makes me very happy to be an american yeah can you would i would say though
00:56:02
that the first part of what i said about their regulations to me seemed really intelligent and i think americans would want that and if american policy makers
00:56:09
would actually just suspend disbelief for a second go to the chinese website meet nick we can put a link into the
00:56:14
into the show notes of where the regulations were published and actually try to implement those laws i think we as americans we'd all want most of them
00:56:21
except that one yeah well that's what the devil does they mix the lies with the truth in order to get you to be
00:56:26
convinced to give up your freedoms friedberg what are your thoughts i'm getting increasingly convinced that this idea of like decentralized blockchain
00:56:33
based government governing might work in the 21st century i just feel like they're
00:56:39
the you know we keep hearing more about the overreach and the ineptitude of uh centralized institutions like uh
00:56:47
ccp and the u.s government and you know i'm not hearing anyone that
00:56:52
says man you know this is a great well i think we're seeing great progress no but free book i think i think the ccp
00:56:59
is actually pretty good what they do we may not agree with them but i think they're pro i agree with you i agree with you generally yeah
00:57:06
but i do think it creates an incentive and a motivation also because if you don't agree with their their principles
00:57:13
you know you're going to find yourself looking for an alternative so you know i don't know which this is
00:57:19
probably not the right time or forum for this conversation we should probably do it on another show
00:57:24
but we should talk about um some of the innovations uh blockchain innovations that that are taking place
00:57:30
and jk i know you spent a lot of time on this as well but you know it'd be worth kind of talking about the
00:57:35
notion that you know can you see um governing move to the blockchain um and what does society look like in
00:57:42
maybe the 22nd century if this becomes a reality and how do we how does the world kind of evolve there
00:57:48
well in the crypto world you would put in some effort you would have some skin in the game and you would because of
00:57:53
your processing power your nodes on the network would get some votes so it'd be like in a democracy how much money you
00:58:00
had or how much work you produced you had some sort of say which kind of sounds like ours i mean imagine if the
00:58:06
u.s government instead of you know having some folks go to congress and say i want a trillion
00:58:11
dollars and spend 25 years in afghanistan you know it was more of a distributed
00:58:17
decision-making process where data was available in real time metrics were used to make the decision and
00:58:22
the folks that actually contributed dollars uh to the network ended up being the ones that made the decisions based on
00:58:28
how many dollars they've contributed or based on some other principle of decision making that doesn't kind of aggregate
00:58:34
institutional ineptitude uh which is kind of part of the issue we've seen here well so i think that
00:58:40
brings up an interesting point which is you know when we talk about all the ways that we could have spent these trillions of dollars better than nation building
00:58:47
here's here's the fundamental problem i agree with that i mean i wish we had spent the 6 trillion that we spent on
00:58:52
nation building in the middle east i wish we had spent that at home domestically on our own priorities but
00:58:57
here's the problem is i think what afghanistan and specifically the military industrial complex shows is how
00:59:03
good these special interests get and extracting money from the system while providing so little value you know we
00:59:10
spent so these contractors spent or we they they charge so much to basically
00:59:16
deliver so little in afghanistan do you really think it's going to be much different for the trillion dollar the 1.2 trillion dollar infrastructure
00:59:22
bill that's coming you know and if we create it they're licking their lips they're looking at yeah exactly the
00:59:28
the people the the groups are going to get that money who are gonna feast on that trillion dollars are people who
00:59:34
their skill set is lobbying okay that is what they spend their time doing sorry
00:59:40
no listen and if you are really good at lobbying why would you even waste your time trying to get good at delivering
00:59:45
value you're not that's your business's lobbyist that is your value yeah that is your skill set exactly so this idea that
00:59:51
we can basically spend a trillion dollars on some domestic innovation program the problem is it'll never go to
00:59:58
the right people never go to the innovators the best thing we could do is just not
01:00:03
spend the money quite frankly so smaller government
01:00:08
or how about how about this not a government that's uh 20 trillion dollars in debt i don't know how it's like smaller or small government to if we
01:00:15
were to save 6 trillion would still be 14 trillion in debt it's not a small government i think the good jumping off
01:00:21
point here might be the supreme court eviction moratorium uh in the supreme court
01:00:27
not upholding it and what are your thoughts on that sex because it does relate to this never-ending free money
01:00:34
train no repercussions of personal behavior and
01:00:39
you know spending insanely forever it seems like we're never going to stop with the stims yeah
01:00:46
i think the supreme court threw out uh biden's eviction moratorium as unconstitutional look i think it's great
01:00:53
you know the the government should not be uh preventing eviction you know especially not the
01:00:59
federal government i don't understand how this is supposed to work i mean all you do look i don't want to see anybody get
01:01:05
evicted but the reality is you have to pay your rent and if and if there are groups of people who
01:01:10
can't pay the rent and the government decides that uh that those people should be helped the right way to help them is to give
01:01:16
them the money to pay their rent not just to tell landlords sorry like you can't collect rights
01:01:22
give more stimulus to those people yes it's a taking it's a clear taking from landlords to say that oh your tenants
01:01:29
don't have to pay you anymore how does that make sense well how do we unwind the free money train because there's 10
01:01:35
million job openings right now that are not getting filled and then we have unemployment starting
01:01:41
to unwind or the bonus unemployment run and then we have all this uh free rent concept or just you don't have to pay
01:01:47
your rent at some point it feels like we have to let the free market come back and maybe
01:01:55
people can't pay their rent so they go take one of the 10 million jobs i know that sounds cold-hearted
01:02:03
you've talked about this before in california we have a labor shortage in california because we've basically run a
01:02:09
controlled experiment in the uh ubi the universal basic income where we've basically been paying people not to work
01:02:15
or paying them regardless of whether they work guess what they don't take jobs and so we actually have a labor
01:02:20
shortage in california despite having high unemployment at some point the government's gonna have to say to
01:02:26
people like look covet is not an excuse for shirking your adult responsibilities
01:02:31
you know we all have a responsibility to go to work to pay our rent you know to
01:02:36
pay our parking tickets and covet has been this excuse for suspending you know this this sort of normal life
01:02:43
and the problem is covet's gonna be around forever it's like the cold or the flu it can't continue to be this excuse
01:02:49
for people not working not paying rent not doing what they're supposed to be doing i think on top of that though i think jason maybe you want to talk about
01:02:55
this i think on top of that we uh are amplifying that by taking people's agency away and we are prop 22
01:03:04
and prop 22 is a perfect example of that which you should talk about but when you put these two things together on the one
01:03:09
hand you have a government that basically wants to subsidize uh opting out of the system
01:03:16
and then you have a set of laws that if they're not unwound reinforce that dynamic and you put these
01:03:23
two things together and folks just want to sit on the sidelines yeah let's get free burger by friend you want to talk
01:03:29
about the prop 22 um supreme court decision et cetera
01:03:34
yeah there was an appeals court um an appeals court that overturned some
01:03:39
elements of the california prop 22 which was a heavily lobbied california
01:03:45
proposition lobbied by uber and lyft and other
01:03:50
businesses that have built effectively marketplaces for independent contractors like drivers and delivery people and so
01:03:56
on the seiu which is a big employees union had um you know fought very hard to pass
01:04:03
legislation in california that made it effectively very difficult for people to operate as independent contractors
01:04:10
enforcing companies like uber and lyft to treat them like full-time employees or to treat them like employees
01:04:15
and so prop 22 was to counter the union-funded legislation
01:04:21
um which basically provided more freedom and flexibility to workers where there weren't all these very arbitrary random
01:04:27
rules that if you're a writer you can be an independent contractor but if you're a driver you cannot you know all this nonsense that took place because the
01:04:33
unions were trying to increase the scale and scope of their union base
01:04:38
um and so prop 22 was passed in california after much spending and lobbying and it passed by a pretty
01:04:43
decent margin and then this court ruling basically in the appeals court overruled the
01:04:49
constitutionality of some elements of prop 22 which brings into question whether that prop 22 is actually going to hold in california therefore are all
01:04:57
these people who are drivers for uber delivery people for doordash and all these companies
01:05:02
that are creating like thumbtack and you know all these companies that are creating marketplaces for individuals to
01:05:07
have flexible work to go and work where they want when they want to find gigs to find you know short-term jobs to find
01:05:15
you know tasks and projects that they can run are they now going to be seeing that those marketplaces stop working because
01:05:22
when you have to start treating those people like employees the flexibility and freedom of those marketplaces enable
01:05:27
stalls out and and kind of you know as we're already seeing so it's super nasty and the implications are
01:05:33
that we're now seeing um you know we're now facing once again this crisis of you know our basically
01:05:40
lower income people people that want to have flexible labor going to be restricted from having
01:05:46
access to gig jobs because the unions want to force everyone into a full-time job which you
01:05:52
know as our friend bill gurley pointed out it's kind of like an archaic element of yeah the 19th and 20th century i mean
01:05:57
this is like let's play at school from uh bill gurley and here it is there's one big issue that i don't think
01:06:04
is talked about enough which is you know that if you polled the drivers they're not looking for any changes they're
01:06:11
really happy with the flexible work product if you look at the voters of california they stepped up and voted and
01:06:17
made it very clear in a state that voted two to one you know in favor of biden
01:06:22
they came down very strong 60 40 that they didn't want this to happen and
01:06:27
there's one uh entity that's really been pushing this the whole time going all the way back to e5 and that's the seiu
01:06:35
it is a single union but to call them a single union understates it because they are the granddaddy of special interest
01:06:42
groups i i sent along some data maybe you can put on the screen they spend more money lobbying than any
01:06:49
other organization in our country and have for many many years they only represent 2 million members
01:06:55
but oddly those members are in hospitality health care and government services they're not even in this
01:07:01
industry so they're taking the dues from their members and using it to fight these battles because they want to
01:07:07
expand their footprint what they're really after is putting 400 420 which is
01:07:13
the minimum member union fee for the 2 million they have they want to expand that to these drivers so they don't
01:07:20
actually want to help them they want to add to their costs um but they're the they're the they're the one that's been
01:07:25
pushing this the whole time and i i think it's worth just saying one thing on this which is um
01:07:30
you know this is uh really kind of a question not about california and prop
01:07:36
22 but it's a question about what is work and all the tech companies that are enabling a new form of work globally
01:07:43
people don't want to have 40-hour week jobs people don't want to have to go sit at a desk all the time people want to
01:07:48
have flexibility in their lives they want to have gigs technology enables us to quickly find short-term jobs
01:07:53
short-term opportunities to work on things and make some money and figure out how we want to build our lives in a more flexible way figure out how workers
01:08:00
want to build lives in a more flexible way across all industries and it's really uh frankly
01:08:07
you know a non-progressive policy to say that everyone has to be pigeonholed into
01:08:13
working you know full-time 40-hour week labor jobs be employees and not have the
01:08:18
flexibility of running their own business in their own way with the with their own time and choosing what they want to go do and work on
01:08:25
and so this sort of legislation and this sort of battle is a really important one for defining the future of work in the
01:08:31
united states which will ultimately represent the future work globally and the craziness of all this david is that
01:08:37
uber drivers lyft drivers door dish drivers etc are getting paid a fortune now because there's a labor shortage and
01:08:45
these ride sharing companies have given a minimum 21 an hour fee so
01:08:53
i don't know exactly what's going on here but it seems to me like it's a union grab because everybody else who's
01:08:59
affluent or rich real estate folks uh you know doctors whoever
01:09:05
can be freelance but if you're a rideshare driver or a freelance writer
01:09:11
you don't get to be and uh it seems just incredibly unfair it is and you know one of the best
01:09:17
things about covet i think for all of us is that we learned that we could do our jobs from anywhere we didn't have to go
01:09:22
into an office we didn't have to work the standard whatever nine to six hours we could be anywhere we had flexibility
01:09:28
and i mean i think it's one of the lasting consequences of cova that's actually been very positive for a lot of people and here you have the government
01:09:36
basically trying to take away and prohibit freelance work flexible hours gig type jobs these are the sort of
01:09:43
modern flexible working relationships that people want why are they getting rid of it because of lobbying pressure
01:09:48
from the seiu which only has two million members is not even a big union but they got lorena gonzalez in their back pocket
01:09:55
she passed ab5 in california the people at california didn't want it remember 58
01:10:00
of californians said we don't want this so they overturned it in this ballot initiative
01:10:06
and now you got this activist judge basically you know um inventing these species grounds for
01:10:12
overturning prop 22 which is what the people want so it's ridiculous and you
01:10:17
know the common thread to me on this show that i've come to realize about american politics is just the degree of
01:10:23
special interest corruption and you know people are used to thinking in terms of left versus right it's not there's a special interest corruption that
01:10:30
pervades everything you've got this union that is destroying freelance work and flexible working relationships
01:10:36
because of corruption because it benefits them you got defense contractors in afghanistan who are just
01:10:41
looting looting the pentagon and the federal budget because it's in their interest you've got these special interests of
01:10:47
both the right and the left this is the central problem in american politics and you know what they do to cover up the
01:10:53
naked self-interest is they disguise it in a kind of work virtue signaling so they'll start you know talking about you
01:10:59
know how what they're doing is for the benefit of these drivers when the drivers don't even want it and to build
01:11:06
on that i'd say you know my great realization from having this conversation with y'all every week is
01:11:12
that we are starting to propose a nanny state in which people have no agency even if they
01:11:18
want to have agency over their life and career you are taking it away and then if there's no repercussions to people's
01:11:25
behavior and they have no agency they become you know uh disenfranchised from society
01:11:31
and why are they going to participate and then what kind of society do we have if people can't make their own choices
01:11:38
and you see it also in you know uh accreditation laws and you see it where only rich people can invest
01:11:45
and now you're seeing it with this freelancing where you know my dad would have loved to have an extra shift or two
01:11:50
to make extra money and he's not allowed to 80 of drivers want flexibility
01:11:56
they're willing to participate on things that ultimately um
01:12:03
on things that they think matter but don't necessarily solve the core root cause problems the people right now
01:12:09
in america i think are focused too much on symptoms meaning you know uh they want to fight for the
01:12:15
right hashtags they want to fight for the right pronouns they want to make sure that you know this person gets
01:12:21
cancelled for things that happened eight or ten years ago and i think what they don't understand is these are all symptoms and this is
01:12:28
this is not what solves the problem right we have a water crisis in america
01:12:35
we have a food impending food crisis as we shut off the water we have a climate
01:12:42
crisis that's engulfing the entire nation we're still in the middle of a pandemic
01:12:47
that we can't control we have an economic system that's fragile that's dependent on a country
01:12:54
who's sometimes our friend and sometimes our foe in china these are huge
01:12:59
transformational issues that we can't get organized around and so instead we spend our time at the
01:13:05
edges on the symptoms and we think the symptoms are if we get the pronouns right everything's going to come together and everything's going to get
01:13:11
fixed the looting will stop the graft will stop the corruption will stop and it turns out actually it emboldens those
01:13:18
people to say hey wait a minute i'm tricking these people everything that i wanted to happen can
01:13:24
happen let them focus on the pronouns while i continue to loot the american treasury for another trillion dollars
01:13:30
that's where we are yeah and the perfect the perfect representation of that is gavin newsom he represents both of these trends he is
01:13:36
one of the most corrupt governors we've ever had there were as soon as covet happened they suspended uh all sorts of um you know the the
01:13:44
process for contracting so that his uh campaign contributors could get all
01:13:49
these special contracts he cut a sweetheart deal to pg e to absolve them of liability for all the fires they've
01:13:55
been causing and on and on it goes the the 12 billion to the homeless industrial complex and then he disguises
01:14:01
it with all this woke virtue signalling and so you know i would just give a shout out to the recall campaign the
01:14:06
election is on september 14th but the ballots have gone out if you want to send a message to the political class
01:14:11
that this special interest corruption has got to stop let's cut the head off the snake here just vote to recall gavin newsom on
01:14:18
question one period all right you guys want to end on uh jeff bezos um let's
01:14:24
let's let's talk about the ai bot first and then and then bezos all right so um if you haven't been watching boston
01:14:31
dynamics uh tweeted a video which will play right now as i talk over it and um
01:14:37
it's basically their robots which have been picking up heavy objects and walking around doing parkour if you
01:14:44
don't know what parkour is it's basically people jumping off the side of objects and flipping and doing balance
01:14:50
beams and vaulting themselves all around it is basically in france
01:14:57
yeah but from heights and jumping over things as well and the french are like parkour experts yeah
01:15:03
i mean it's i think uh parkour is french for jumping uh i made that up but uh
01:15:12
uh no uh absolutely uh i have never seen him we'll show that before i have seen
01:15:17
him so drunk that he's on the floor but never seen him do parkour but
01:15:27
this robot looks more dexterous than any of the terminators we saw in the films
01:15:33
and then adding to that oh if you didn't know boston dynamics got bought by google i'm sure freeberg has some inside information on that and then they
01:15:40
uh got sold again softbank had bought them and now they uh are owned by uh
01:15:45
hyundai the south korean hyundai the south korean automaker because apparently
01:15:50
the softies that google didn't want to be involved in uh government contracting with robots
01:15:57
i.e making soldiers of the future which obviously i don't know the chinese i wouldn't characterize the whole story
01:16:03
like that i mean remember like there was well google bought boston dynamics in 2013
01:16:10
and remember boston dynamics have been around for over a decade prior to that they spun out of mit like in the 90s i
01:16:16
think um and they were had always been working on you know advanced neural nets being applied to kind of you know automation
01:16:23
systems so you could get things to mimic real life um and the idea at google this was when
01:16:29
they had set up google x and we're starting to kind of do a lot of this you know moonshot type
01:16:36
tech tech investing as a separate entity outside of the core google and it was like leveraging their cash flow to start
01:16:41
new projects the idea was let's you know build this into kind of a next-gen robotics platform they had andy rubin
01:16:48
who previously started and ran android um company was called danger google bought it turned into android um run the run
01:16:56
the unit and they made several other acquisitions they rolled them all up into this kind of robotics platform they
01:17:01
had spent i think 400 million on boston dynamics and hundreds of millions more on these other companies
01:17:06
um and ultimately i think the challenge was less about like you know who does or doesn't want to do contracts with us but
01:17:12
it was more about the fundamental question that is still the question mark today uh which is do we really need general
01:17:19
purpose automation or do we need special purpose automation for industries for customers right where
01:17:24
do you find product market fit do people really need a robot that does parkour or do they need an automation system that
01:17:31
can lift boxes and pack in place things or an automation system that can move things from point a to point b and so if
01:17:37
you're solving for a customer's problem you typically find that the special purpose automation solution is a more
01:17:42
elegant cheaper solution that you can get to market right away like building an automated little truck that moves things around or
01:17:49
building a machine that lifts and put this wood is in the right place between narrow ai and general correct
01:17:56
and this is exactly the same question jkl is like you know is um you know is general purpose ai
01:18:02
really what the market needs or are there specific applications of neural network or machine learning technologies
01:18:09
that allow us to solve for the problems that customers have without needing to replicate the human
01:18:14
being so when you're lifting boxes you don't necessarily need all the other things that humans have right you don't need to mimic a human when you're moving
01:18:21
a package you don't necessarily need to have four legs to do it you can have it on four wheels and just have a simple
01:18:26
system that moves it around and so you know i think softbank you know massason had this whole belief with
01:18:32
vision fund one when he raised the hundred some odd billion dollars that you know the singularity where machines
01:18:37
were going to be smarter and better than humans in every way intelligence and dexterity and all these things we're about was about to kind of we're about
01:18:43
to pass that moment and this was part of that core thesis he had which is this is going to be the robotics company
01:18:49
and i think as we've seen they can mimic parkour but they can't do all the other things humans can do and if you're you
01:18:56
know trying to get a machine to do something that a customer needs it's really not parkour let's be honest they can't even walk a dog because they
01:19:02
wouldn't know how to deal with the edge cases uh if the dog had diarrhea
01:19:08
i think there's core p at boston dynamics that's certainly critically valuable for businesses that are in special purpose automation which hyundai
01:19:14
is there's going to be a great set of applications for leveraging that ip into some of the existing product lines and
01:19:19
customers that they serve so in related in a related story elon then uh revealed the tesla bot plans at his ai day he's
01:19:27
in a couple of these ai days and i think they're primarily designed um to get ai talent which is some of the
01:19:33
hardest developers to find in the world um and they said that their tesla bot will weigh 125
01:19:39
pounds five eight so i'll be a half inch taller than it um but it will weigh significantly less than me and it will
01:19:45
move up up to five miles per hour and can carry 45 pounds uh elon said the
01:19:50
reason he was doing that is so a human could easily overtake it in case it becomes sentient which was quite
01:19:55
entertaining uh chamath you think this is what are the chances elon has a robot
01:20:00
like this and um it's operating the real world i saw a bunch of journalists dunking on him that
01:20:06
this would never ever happen which is kind of hard to believe when there's a million tussles on the road yeah no
01:20:11
comment and i think uh it's awesome oh okay can't comment all right leave it at that uh sax you have any comments on
01:20:17
this um you worked with elon at paypal yeah i thought it was a little bit of a
01:20:22
surprise that he was working on uh a robot um but uh you know obviously this has been an interest of his he's talked
01:20:28
a lot about it and so it kind of makes sense uh it's just another innovative thing he's doing
01:20:34
should we talk about elon versus bezos on the spaceship yeah well i just wanted to let people know by the
01:20:39
way the robot going at five miles an hour it's not as outlandish as i think some of the journalists and idiots out
01:20:44
there who don't build anything in the world who were kind of dunking on him like we're saying if you think about those
01:20:50
cars going 65 75 85 miles an hour on the road processing the world doing a neural
01:20:56
network machine learning on the fly to figure out where the car should go a robot going five miles an hour is an
01:21:03
easier task i think all those people dunking on him should have just taken a step back and actually asked the
01:21:08
question am i just being really insecure right now and if so why am i
01:21:13
making fun of this guy who just seems to be you know firing on all cylinders and
01:21:18
maybe it's maybe it's me maybe you know maybe maybe maybe i'm writing this article out of my own
01:21:24
insecurity maybe i'm feeling a little impotent you know and also to to dunk on
01:21:29
on a guy for the version one or even the version 0.1 of a product is so
01:21:34
ridiculous i mean i remember the version 0 of tesla now look at the company i mean you know
01:21:40
it's about iterating that's how you get to products so it's just so stupid and short term and by the way on the current
01:21:46
product capabilities and his his his style of doing these things i think makes a ton of sense when when you know
01:21:52
he started with starlink it was the same reaction people were dunking dunking dunking too slow too expensive not going
01:21:58
to work and what you find through these events are really technical people
01:22:03
building companies that could help him want to be a part of the mission right and so you know for whatever it's
01:22:10
worth it's like i think starlink's gonna be a real thing i think this is probably gonna be a real thing i
01:22:16
think great companies will get absorbed into this these efforts i think uh i think it's great and i really think the people that
01:22:24
are just so low like there's like this loathing going on i just don't understand what do you think
01:22:31
will differentiate the um opportunity for success
01:22:36
with larry page owning and running um boston dynamics then masa owning and
01:22:41
running boston dynamics and then elon trying to take on the same project from scratch you know why were these other two kind
01:22:48
of well-capitalized influential businesses that have attract rate partners not been able to turn boston
01:22:54
dynamics into kind of a successful business but but you guys believe elon will if i had to just categorize them i
01:23:00
would say uh larry is absent and is sitting on a 100 billion dollar fortune with no idea
01:23:06
what to do um i think one of the seven islands yeah i mean he's just absent so he's
01:23:13
irrelevant um i don't think anybody knows what the [Â __Â ] he looks like um i mean we do uh but uh you know he's
01:23:20
frittered away enormous potential i think i think masa is a master capital allocator but
01:23:26
not an engineer and i think elon is the most important technical product and
01:23:31
business mind of our lifetime i think the answer is even simpler he's the customer of the robot so he understands
01:23:37
what the spec should be because he has so many robots working in the factories so he's gonna buy the first thousand to
01:23:43
go colonize mars or work at a space station to build [Â __Â ] in space and he's gonna have them working in the tesla
01:23:49
factory and for the boring company carrying rocks out of tunnels he's the customer of course he knows and masa
01:23:54
wasn't the customer master was looking to increase uh whatever the money he do
01:24:00
but it's also it's also skill set like masa of course he's an incredible visionary and investor but he's not going to be the guy in the engine room
01:24:07
making the robot larry now in fairness to larry page he could be that good and there was a moment in time where larry
01:24:14
was that good and frankly better than elon uh but that window has closed and it's well passed and now you know it's
01:24:20
kind of like the player that just keeps getting better and better i think that's elon musk great sax your thoughts
01:24:25
i mean nothing to add to that i think you both made great points i mean the amazing thing is that elon is still working so hard doubling down coming
01:24:32
with new ideas new initiatives i mean it's working harder than ever when most people are you know doing most people
01:24:38
would do what larry did you know go buy an island or seven and yours and hang out you know yeah
01:24:44
all right bezos is lost his way um and he left his position as ceo of amazon to
01:24:51
focus on blue origin and then he um sued nasa over the moon program accusing nasa
01:24:58
wrongly evaluated its lunar lander proposal giving all the funds to spacex he then
01:25:04
did a series of like infographics talking about how terrible spacex's plans were
01:25:10
um this lawsuit has delayed spacex's work on the project according to the verge i don't know if that's true or not uh amazon urged the fcc to
01:25:18
dismiss the newly submitted plans for spacex to launch another cluster of satellites uh to power starlink
01:25:26
uh elon tweeted turns out bezos retired in order to pursue a full-time job
01:25:31
filing lawsuits against spacex uh which is hilarious um
01:25:37
how sad is this that it's a huge miscalculation in the following way which is that in order for jeff to
01:25:43
achieve his ambitions he needs deeply technical people and this is the simplest way to basically turn them off
01:25:49
because this is not what technical people do what do technical people do we don't we don't take our toys and run
01:25:56
from the sandbox crying like a [Â __Â ] we stay there and we keep iterating trying to make things work yeah we don't act
01:26:02
like patent trolls i have a new avenue slogan for you jkl go ahead winners do and losers sue
01:26:10
winners do and loser sue okay folks there you have it it's the all-in podcast we're back we're back from a big
01:26:16
vacation make it happen yeah make the banger make the banger all right everybody what's
01:26:22
your free bird you have any thoughts on these uh on the lawsuit i feel bad for beijing's i feel like he's just getting
01:26:27
so beat up on this ship it's um it's honestly it's a little disappointing because i think he's got all the right intentions he's an
01:26:33
incredible engineer obviously an incredible operator i'd love to see him and elon succeed in the work they're
01:26:38
trying to do as well as all the other startups that are pursuing this i am concerned about frankly the lack of
01:26:44
commercial readiness for this industry i feel like in terms of the hype cycle we're at that early point where the the
01:26:51
investment dollars and the number of companies exceeds the market demand and therefore there's this
01:26:57
fight over the one or two customers which is basically nasa and the federal government and it's creating this really
01:27:02
nasty set of circumstances because that's where the money comes from that's where the customers are right now and so they're all fighting
01:27:09
over one or two customers and you know elon filed suits um against the you know federal agencies
01:27:15
when he lost contract no no he did that when they bid them i get it i get it and slightly still i
01:27:21
get it but still like i think at the end of the day um you know bezos uh is willing to put his money where his mouth is he's
01:27:27
offered to put up a billion dollars or more to fund this i'd love to see multiple companies simultaneously going to the
01:27:34
moon multiple companies simultaneously going to mars but rather than have you know single
01:27:39
contracts with one customer or have you know private industry figure out ways to make money from this and
01:27:44
fund it uh it's the challenge is it's just it's another product market fit question right the market is one customer today
01:27:51
um yeah but bezos is almost 60 years old he's got 150 200 billion dollars it's
01:27:57
gonna cost him two or three billion dollars one two three percent of his net worth to do all this just [Â __Â ] do it
01:28:02
bezos and stop crying and you're right he may end up doing that yeah
01:28:09
a competitor no but he's losing the human capital that's required so there was there was a huge
01:28:15
cycle about uh this one person who was like the the leader of the of the lander
01:28:20
project who just quit and went to spacex my point is other engineers don't want to see
01:28:26
that this is the way to win compete he's got he's got a roll out of that hole now yeah build iterate and solve
01:28:34
build iterate solve it certainly seems the case that his um pr stunt with shooting himself into space didn't do
01:28:40
him any favors either you know it's almost like everyone sees the great work elon does when he does these pr events
01:28:45
and he gets all this attention and publicity and gets positive press and accolades and then bezos does them and he's like oh jesus has no besties
01:28:52
there's no bestie taking bezos aside
01:29:04
and they're not being true besties they need to tell him when he's got something that's a blind spot he and the blind spot here is he was dunking on richard
01:29:13
branson and being like oh you didn't go to the right height here's an infographic stop with the [Â __Â ] infographics bezos what are you 12 years
01:29:20
old and you're like going to the teacher with like a drawing like i i should technically get an a plus and i should
01:29:26
be singing the solo for the choir practice and like some other person is like got the solo you get the [Â __Â ]
01:29:32
solo next year basis bezos offered you a huge um consulting feed jaycal would you be his bestie um consigliere
01:29:40
for sure for sure by the way
01:29:45
i i hired this [Â __Â ] nut he flies back with me i mean he literally ate
01:29:50
everything on the plane and then what are you talking about and then hold on i love you you were eating this tiramisu
01:29:57
let me focus on the tournament he said to me you have some great toiletries in the
01:30:03
back i said yeah sure you know there's marvis there's great toothbrushes and then out of his pocket he pulls some
01:30:09
scope bottles that he had to go for four more in my bag
01:30:14
until 2022. generic it's the real scope this [Â __Â ] was looting
01:30:20
i looted looting i looted all your lactate we all take advantage of sea people oh my god this
01:30:27
this other guy this [Â __Â ] fredberg once was so buried he got so
01:30:32
[Â __Â ] mad he grabbed all the lactate in my you know a little medicine cabinet
01:30:38
and he ran out then came back he was angry and he was like i'm so [Â __Â ] angry because he had lost a big pot
01:30:43
right during poker then he took all the pistachios and shoved
01:31:01
i'm gonna get back 37 dollars in like oh my god so sad so sad all right
01:31:06
wait free you want me to prepare the house you want me to prepare the the the yeah i think about it i think yeah i
01:31:12
think so i think so that'd be awesome if you could do that oh my god i'll bring some tests some binax tests
01:31:17
yeah yeah yeah i mean just as an aside bill gurley was talking about this we talked about this early in the pandemic
01:31:22
why don't we have [Â __Â ] one dollar test freedberg why does everybody not have a hundred dollars everywhere
01:31:28
now tests are literally lateral flow strips they cost pennies to make it's how much did it cost to buy
01:31:34
20 bucks why is it a dollar why couldn't biden or trump get that
01:31:39
done is it some grift graft greed yeah should have michael jordan on to talk about this he's uh the
01:31:47
uh the guy to talk about it but um i mean if people were taking those every day we could i think you guys may
01:31:52
remember this i tweeted about this over a year ago like last april where we could actually print these antigen tests
01:31:58
for pennies in the u.s i mean when we had that like whole emergency authority thing we were making masks and liquid oxygen tanks and all this [Â __Â ] we should
01:32:05
have been printing antigen tests on strips of paper we have the facilities in the us to do it and we could have made you know
01:32:11
100 billion 50 cent tests um and made them just free and available to schools
01:32:16
to work places to everything it's absolutely insane people can't be freelance riders or
01:32:22
drive an uber for two hours a day in california exactly we can we can mandate that but we can't mandate a 25 cent 50
01:32:29
cent test and put them in everybody's [Â __Â ] mailboxes i'm on fire now it's [Â __Â ] stupid everything is so dumb
01:32:34
everybody's a grifter in this government incompetent [Â __Â ]
01:32:41
i would like to go to uh war with uh fiji because it's beautiful
01:32:46
um i'd like an island and i think that fiji
01:32:52
probably has a lot of them well fiji is not better than the french people just because i think it's a little
01:32:57
closer yeah um yeah so you go there and spread pronouns um also i'd like to go
01:33:02
to war with iceland but only in the summer time because i hear it's beautiful
01:33:15
i'm occupying tuscany you'll need to build a bagram in all these places just to accommodate all the
01:33:21
private jets they're going to come in i mean but just in closing
01:33:27
let's just let's just say thank you to the amazing people of italy for having water the greatest
01:33:33
country for adults to go on vacation in what an incredible country florence is amazing tuscany is outrageous
01:33:40
beautiful venice is incredible everything is delightful i love sardinia i love you italy i love you so much
01:33:56
[Music]
01:34:02
and it said we opened sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it
01:34:09
[Music]
01:34:15
besties [Music]
01:34:26
we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're all just useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to
01:34:32
release your feet
01:34:44
[Music]
01:34:53
david sacks you come to me from your boat in sicily
01:35:02
hand my daughter's wedding day sax you come to me and you ask me not to interrupt you so
01:35:09
that henry belicaster can make a clean cut of your speech well you can stop by
01:35:15
acting like a man david sacks i gotta interrupt the podcast oh you
01:35:21
didn't let me finish my dog you wanted this pot
01:35:27
one of this part on this podcast who's the director who's the producer i'll get you this part
01:35:33
but someday sax i'm gonna ask you for a favor sax i'm gonna ask you for an allocation and
01:35:40
all in in your calling app i'm going to ask you to lead the series
01:35:45
b and on that day i expect the valuation because measure it
01:35:51
with what i've done for you today [Music] david sucks
01:35:57
[Music] it's a pretty good bit look at uh don canole over here
