00:00:00
how was your colonoscopy by the way oh
00:00:02
well uh that was uh talk about your anus
00:00:05
talk about my anus have you guys had
00:00:07
yours recently who's had a colonoscopy I
00:00:10
have mine in December my yeah my first
00:00:12
one yeah I was delinquent on mine too
00:00:14
they it used to be 50 and they moved the
00:00:16
age down to 45 yeah they did move the
00:00:18
age down free Brook have you had one
00:00:20
yet that's a yes we got a yes SX have
00:00:23
you had yours I'm do by the way I got a
00:00:25
report because actually saaku did have
00:00:27
one and they found a bunch of disantis
00:00:30
merchandise up there you found a
00:00:31
disantis hat a disantis pin tons of
00:00:33
disantis stuff right up your
00:00:35
ass at our age we should be four for
00:00:38
four on the colonoscopies we're one for
00:00:40
four we got to get that stat up every
00:00:41
week I want to check in here propal uh
00:00:44
shout out Michael Jackson is the
00:00:46
greatest drug ever I counted 15 seconds
00:00:48
I was knocked out I woke up and the next
00:00:51
thing I know I was in the recovery area
00:00:53
were you groggy I was not groggy no I
00:00:56
was fine you literally don't remember
00:00:57
anything no pain no suffering I did have
00:00:59
were you able to have a regular schedule
00:01:01
the rest of the day not really so I
00:01:04
don't want to dissuade anybody from
00:01:05
having this but you do have to take a
00:01:07
drink called prep which clears you out
00:01:10
and when I say clears you out I love
00:01:11
that oh I love that it clears you out
00:01:13
yeah I hit a record low weight I'm 168
00:01:15
now so that was the one benefit how much
00:01:17
weight did you lose three pounds maybe
00:01:20
come on oh yeah yeah yeah were you
00:01:22
working when you were prepping no I was
00:01:24
working when I was prepping so Monday
00:01:25
when I was prepping but then literally
00:01:28
you take this prep stuff an hour later
00:01:30
you you need to be ready to evacuate at
00:01:33
any time normally the diarrhea is coming
00:01:35
out of your mouth absolutely absolutely
00:01:38
well play there's your called open
00:01:41
folks let your winners
00:01:44
ride Rainman
00:01:48
David and instead we open source it to
00:01:51
the fans and they've just gone crazy
00:01:53
with it
00:01:56
love all right everybody welcome to
00:01:58
another amazing episode of the Allin
00:02:01
podcast episode 148 the docket is absurd
00:02:05
the number of lawsuits and the amount of
00:02:07
news that has happened in just the last
00:02:10
week has been insane uh but we want to
00:02:13
at the top of the show do a quick
00:02:15
correction right it's an all-in
00:02:16
correction if we make a mistake here we
00:02:18
don't hide it in the show notes we just
00:02:20
talk about it right up front saak you
00:02:21
were in touch with the a table CEO Hoy
00:02:24
Lou who's been a guest on this weekend
00:02:26
startups I'm going to have him on again
00:02:28
actually soon maybe you could just
00:02:31
discuss what we got wrong and how we got
00:02:34
it wrong and then what the correct facts
00:02:35
are about air table just quickly here at
00:02:37
the top of the show yeah well we had a
00:02:38
segment a couple weeks ago where we were
00:02:39
talking about these high price late
00:02:41
stage unicorn rounds needing to get
00:02:43
revalued and the IPO of instacart was a
00:02:47
good example of this where yes it ipoed
00:02:49
at about 10 billion but the last private
00:02:51
round was at 39 billion so there is a
00:02:53
big wave of revaluations or down rounds
00:02:57
coming and we s Ed some numbers off the
00:03:01
internet regarding air table as it turns
00:03:04
out not everything on the internet is
00:03:06
true and you're talking about specific
00:03:08
journalists might have gotten it wrong
00:03:10
we would say this is actually a tweet
00:03:12
storm on X that from a financial account
00:03:15
that you know appeared on the surface to
00:03:17
be correct and in fact it did have some
00:03:19
correct information but it was outdated
00:03:21
it was stale so just the the quick
00:03:23
correction here is that the the amount
00:03:25
of ARR that we cited which I think was
00:03:28
around 150 million was accurate as of
00:03:31
the time they did the last round but
00:03:33
that was like 3 years ago furthermore
00:03:35
the growth rate that was cited which I
00:03:38
think was around 15% that was off that
00:03:40
was off by about a 3X uh multiple so
00:03:44
when you put all these things together I
00:03:46
wasn't able to get the exact numbers but
00:03:48
if you just do a little bit of napkin
00:03:50
math here my guess is that air table is
00:03:54
somewhere in the half a billion of ARR
00:03:58
club with pretty decent growth and if
00:04:02
you look at the public comps for that I
00:04:04
think the public comps be something like
00:04:06
a Monday you know which is doing sure
00:04:09
five to 600 million of AR coming off a
00:04:13
50% growth rate maybe forecasting 30%
00:04:16
for the next year that company has been
00:04:18
hovering around the s or eight billion
00:04:20
dollar valuation range 12x yeah the
00:04:23
claim that was made on X was that air
00:04:25
table wasn't even worth the 1.4 billion
00:04:27
that is raised in uh money I think
00:04:30
that's way off I mean yeah and
00:04:32
furthermore you know what we heard is
00:04:34
that air table still has something like
00:04:36
2third of the money that it's raised in
00:04:37
the bank so look is air table worth the
00:04:40
11 billion that it was valued at at the
00:04:43
peak probably that's not what the public
00:04:45
comps indicate would I be a buyer
00:04:48
personally at roughly half that price
00:04:50
for sure for sure and I think it'll have
00:04:53
a nice IPO at some point when they
00:04:54
decide they want to do it so just an
00:04:56
important reminder for everybody is uh
00:04:58
you know listen if information is on the
00:05:00
interwebs it may not be correct but the
00:05:03
top news story in the country is uh
00:05:08
unequivocally Kevin McCarthy being
00:05:10
ousted as Speaker of the House on
00:05:11
Tuesday he was voted out in a 216 to 210
00:05:14
vote with eight far-right Republicans uh
00:05:17
joining all of the Democrats uh so those
00:05:21
eight GOP members include or led by Matt
00:05:25
Gates obviously a group of I guess what
00:05:27
would be best described Sachs as tea
00:05:30
partyes members of um the the GOP
00:05:34
contingent they they care mostly about
00:05:36
spending and curtailing spending am I
00:05:37
correct don't don't forget all the
00:05:39
Democrats well yeah I'm putting the
00:05:41
Democrats on I already cting them I'm
00:05:42
just talking about the eight who made
00:05:43
this tip over the media is trying to
00:05:45
portray them as these farri you know
00:05:47
Wingers and I don't think you can
00:05:48
necessarily say that because I don't
00:05:50
think Nancy mace fits in that group I
00:05:51
think she does care about spending but
00:05:53
she's not far about spending I mean far
00:05:56
right to me would be that's exactly
00:05:57
right I mean anything that the media
00:05:58
doesn't like they label far right but I
00:06:02
think you know Nancy ma is a good
00:06:03
example of somebody who is very
00:06:06
concerned about spending discipline but
00:06:08
is not like a Maga type Republican but
00:06:11
but is the and just to to just refine
00:06:13
this one more time before I keep going
00:06:16
those eight would the Common Thread
00:06:18
would be control spending we're at we
00:06:19
have out of control spending is is the
00:06:21
reason they're voting a no vote for
00:06:24
Kevin McCarthy I think there were a
00:06:25
couple other pieces of this um if you
00:06:27
listen to Nancy ma some of the other
00:06:28
people that were involved here a lot of
00:06:31
the issue comes down to trust they felt
00:06:33
like they could no longer trust Kevin
00:06:35
McCarthy they felt like the things that
00:06:37
he had told them in private were not
00:06:40
matching up with the things that he
00:06:42
would then later do or that he would say
00:06:44
in public or that he would tell the
00:06:46
Biden Administration so I think that and
00:06:49
their main issues were well I think
00:06:51
there's a couple one was on spending he
00:06:54
had promised that he would stop doing
00:06:56
these giant Omnibus spending bills where
00:06:58
everything would be lumped into one one
00:06:59
bill you get like 24 hours to read it
00:07:01
and then you got to vote up or down on
00:07:03
whether you pass this giant spending
00:07:05
bill or shut down the government
00:07:07
everyone feels forced to vote for it he
00:07:08
had promised to do single subject
00:07:10
spending bills so military education
00:07:13
welfare whatever yeah that goes through
00:07:14
a regular budget process so they felt
00:07:17
like he had broke his promise on that I
00:07:18
think also on the issue of
00:07:21
Ukraine there were some trust issues
00:07:23
there
00:07:24
because what he was telling Republicans
00:07:26
in private was not what he was telling
00:07:27
the Biden Administration in private
00:07:29
where he was telling the B
00:07:31
Administration don't worry we're going
00:07:32
to get the Ukraine funding through but
00:07:34
then he was sounding different notes
00:07:36
with various Republicans and I think his
00:07:39
true feelings on the matter came out in
00:07:42
this press conference he did after he
00:07:43
was ousted in which he goes on this long
00:07:47
rant about how Putin's the second coming
00:07:49
of Adolf Hitler and if we don't stop him
00:07:51
now he's going to be you know marching
00:07:53
into Paris and I mean it was sort of
00:07:55
this like unhinged second grade American
00:07:58
history style a view of of the war which
00:08:02
regardless of what your view is on it I
00:08:04
think it expressed his true feelings on
00:08:06
the matter which is that when push came
00:08:09
to shove he's more hawkish than Joe
00:08:11
Biden on the issue of Ukraine he feels
00:08:13
that Biden has not done enough it's safe
00:08:15
to say that that position is now very
00:08:17
out of step with the Republican caucus
00:08:20
so he is pushing a view on Ukraine that
00:08:24
is now very out of Step moreover I think
00:08:27
that if he had just acted as an honest
00:08:28
broker on the issue which is to say
00:08:30
listen I'm just going to represent the
00:08:31
views of my caucus my caucus is divided
00:08:33
on the issue I'm just going to let them
00:08:35
have an up or down vote on it then I
00:08:38
think he could have survived on that
00:08:39
issue but instead again I think he was
00:08:42
trying to manipulate things in a
00:08:43
direction of continuing Ukraine funding
00:08:46
regardless of the views of his caucus
00:08:48
Gates wants to end cr's continuing
00:08:52
resolutions uh those extend the funding
00:08:54
deadline from October 1st to the
00:08:55
holidays claiming this buy Congress time
00:08:57
to lump all those individual farman
00:09:00
bills into the
00:09:07
omnimusic the context that I think is
00:09:10
important that I think is that the
00:09:12
American public should understand is how
00:09:14
is this actually supposed to work so
00:09:16
that we don't normalize what these CRS
00:09:18
are so the way that it's supposed to
00:09:21
work is that Congress is authorized by
00:09:24
law to create 12 spending bills a year
00:09:28
and each of those bills have to map to
00:09:31
the large parts of the government so
00:09:33
there's a military bill there's an
00:09:34
education bill there's a you know HHS
00:09:37
Bill etc etc and those are supposed to
00:09:41
be negotiated on the house floor and
00:09:43
passed the Senate is allowed to do a
00:09:46
version of the same if those two things
00:09:48
are different meaning the Senate doesn't
00:09:50
take the house bill and creates their
00:09:51
own the law says that you have to create
00:09:54
what's called a conference and a a group
00:09:56
of people half senators and half
00:10:00
Congress people sit in a room hash out
00:10:02
and mediate a resolution and that is
00:10:04
what goes to the president's desk to be
00:10:06
signed that's how it used to be done but
00:10:10
about a decade ago all of that broke
00:10:13
down and now what happens is you have
00:10:16
this thing that sax mentioned which is
00:10:18
called the CR which is essentially a
00:10:20
back door it's this release valve that
00:10:23
is supposed to be a in emergency break
00:10:26
glass type measure that has become
00:10:29
fundamentally
00:10:30
normalized and I think what's important
00:10:32
to call out is what happened here isn't
00:10:35
getting the just attention because it's
00:10:37
being characterized on party lines and
00:10:40
not actually being characterized with
00:10:41
how America is legally supposed to work
00:10:43
as defined in the Constitution so the
00:10:47
Congress is supposed to pass 12 spending
00:10:49
bills a year it's then supposed to get
00:10:51
negotiated or approved by the Senate and
00:10:53
then it should go to the president when
00:10:55
you override that with these continuing
00:10:58
resolutions this is the issue that
00:11:00
freeberg has been talking about you
00:11:02
balloon the deficit you balloon the debt
00:11:05
you have all kinds of pork barrel
00:11:06
spending there's zero accountability the
00:11:08
bullets cost $6,000 the umbrella holders
00:11:11
cost 15,000 all of this nonsense that
00:11:14
just brings us closer and closer to some
00:11:16
sort of default or economic contagion so
00:11:20
I actually look at this issue not as
00:11:22
Republican versus Democrat the far
00:11:24
right-wing I think that's misguided
00:11:26
interpretation by the mainstream media I
00:11:29
think what this is is the first chance
00:11:31
in a while where you're not allowed to
00:11:33
pass a continuing resolution where you
00:11:35
will have to propose 12 bills the way
00:11:39
the law says you're supposed to and what
00:11:42
that'll mean is that you'll have to
00:11:43
negotiate a compromise to get those 12
00:11:46
bills passed now what's crazy is the
00:11:50
Senate actually has six of those bills
00:11:51
on their desk and they haven't even
00:11:53
negotiated it and I think the reason is
00:11:56
because they know that the CR is always
00:11:57
in the offing but if this continuing
00:12:00
resolution is not allowed because you
00:12:02
fired the
00:12:03
speaker then they'll have to negotiate
00:12:06
those bills and part of what McCarthy
00:12:08
did to get elected was say we will
00:12:11
return to the law and not use the in
00:12:14
emergency break class and I think that's
00:12:16
what's not it's not understood well I
00:12:18
think by Americans as that is the actual
00:12:20
process we haven't been doing it for a
00:12:23
decade and I'm not a fan of gates but
00:12:26
I'm glad that somebody did this because
00:12:29
somebody has to draw a line in this end
00:12:30
the Republicans and Democrats equally
00:12:32
have been responsible for breaking the
00:12:34
way the American government spends money
00:12:36
and so this is the best way to fix it
00:12:37
freeberg you agree with what's gone down
00:12:39
here and that that this is worth
00:12:42
shutting the government down Etc or do
00:12:45
you think this is like uh where to make
00:12:47
the stand because you've been very Pro
00:12:50
controlling spending uh asfi and so do
00:12:53
you think that this is the the best way
00:12:54
to do it I guess it's more about the
00:12:57
United States is facing a
00:12:59
emergency national debt reported by the
00:13:02
treasury Department increased by $275
00:13:05
billion in a one-day report yesterday
00:13:07
$275 billion in a day the entire tarp
00:13:11
program during 08 was $400 billion
00:13:15
that's how out of control our fiscal
00:13:16
condition is and this is a function of
00:13:18
rising rates a function of spending and
00:13:21
you know as we talked about many times
00:13:23
over there's an arithmetic to this that
00:13:25
at some point it becomes ever escalating
00:13:27
until you step in and do something
00:13:30
dramatic about it so I'm hopeful and I
00:13:32
mean there's a lot of rhetoric you can
00:13:34
watch all the news channels and see a
00:13:35
lot of these Congress people get on
00:13:37
camera and talk about different
00:13:39
things I think we're seeing more
00:13:42
frequently now people talking about the
00:13:45
fiscal crisis that the US is facing and
00:13:48
that this action provides a mechanism as
00:13:52
chamat points out for forcing everyone
00:13:54
to the table to figure out how do we
00:13:56
reduce the impact how do we chart a path
00:13:59
to a solution because right now if you
00:14:01
asked anyone in Congress what's the
00:14:02
Strategic plan here there is not going
00:14:04
to be an answer from anyone everyone's
00:14:06
got a different point of view and
00:14:07
everyone's fighting over the deck chairs
00:14:11
on the Titanic and we've got a more
00:14:13
significant problem we're hitting an
00:14:15
iceberg so yeah I'm hopeful that this
00:14:19
causes hopefully a turning point in The
00:14:23
NeverEnding spending spree where
00:14:25
everyone gets elected and everyone
00:14:27
promises to the folks that they're
00:14:29
representing and the folks that funded
00:14:31
their political campaigns some amount of
00:14:33
money back out from the government and
00:14:34
everyone gets that free money and at
00:14:37
some point something's got to turn
00:14:39
around or the whole thing kind of goes
00:14:40
down so hopefully this is that moment I
00:14:42
don't know saaks do you think that this
00:14:44
is by the way if the government shut
00:14:45
down for weeks and months to try and
00:14:47
figure this out and for everyone to get
00:14:49
aligned with here's the long range
00:14:51
strategic plan presented to the American
00:14:53
people on how we prevent the US from
00:14:56
either inflation or bankruptcy then I
00:15:00
think everyone will feel like it was
00:15:01
worth it saxs has been tons of
00:15:03
speculation about what this is what's
00:15:05
what this is actually about is it about
00:15:07
Ukraine is it about out of control
00:15:08
spending is it about Matt Gates and
00:15:12
Kevin McCarthy having some sort of
00:15:13
personal grudge against each other what
00:15:15
do you what do you think is at the core
00:15:16
of this saxs well probably all of the
00:15:18
above but I think it's fundamentally a
00:15:20
rejection of the status quo Kevin
00:15:22
McCarthy if nothing else is a figure of
00:15:24
the status quo I mean he's worked for 20
00:15:26
years through the system he's a great
00:15:28
fundraiser
00:15:29
I actually attended an event for him
00:15:31
down the street here and of course all
00:15:32
the donors love him and look I like
00:15:36
Kevin McCarthy I've contributed to Kevin
00:15:37
McCarthy but at the end of the day I'm
00:15:39
not sure that Kevin McCarthy is a guy
00:15:42
who's going to get us out of this mess
00:15:44
and the fal problem is he's just too
00:15:47
conciliatory and the idea that you're
00:15:49
going to impose spending discipline and
00:15:51
get us out of the budgetary mess that
00:15:53
we're in the idea that you're going to
00:15:54
make that omelet without breaking a few
00:15:56
eggs I think is just kind of silly so
00:15:59
I think we need a tougher speaker who's
00:16:01
going to actually live up to the
00:16:03
promises of stopping these omnus bills
00:16:05
going back to single subject bills who
00:16:08
is going to represent the views of the
00:16:11
majority of the Republican caucus on you
00:16:14
know indefinite infinite Ukraine
00:16:16
spending because he's kind of off center
00:16:18
of the Republican party on that why
00:16:20
can't the Republican Party be in unison
00:16:23
on this is is explain what the what's
00:16:25
the rift inside the the GOP right now
00:16:28
well
00:16:29
actually has debates in this party what
00:16:31
you see is the Democrats are in Total
00:16:32
Lock step and they just support whatever
00:16:34
is the status quo but the Republicans
00:16:37
actually have debates inside their party
00:16:38
and there is a big debate right now on
00:16:40
how we handle Ukraine and I think there
00:16:43
is growing opposition to a blank check
00:16:46
as long as it takes policy towards
00:16:47
Ukraine we've already appropriated over
00:16:49
a 100 billion what's the return on
00:16:51
investment of that the counter that's
00:16:54
the key you think that's the key not the
00:16:56
the CRS I think it's both of those
00:16:58
issues isues combined with the fact that
00:17:00
increasingly McCarthy was not seen as an
00:17:02
honest broker listen I think McCarthy
00:17:04
could have had whatever views he wanted
00:17:06
to if he was perceived as somebody who
00:17:09
actually represented a majority of the
00:17:11
Republican caucus but what Nancy May
00:17:14
what Matt Gates what these others who
00:17:16
rebelled were saying is listen what
00:17:18
Kevin told us is not what he did and I
00:17:21
personally witnessed this aspect to
00:17:23
McCarthy okay so when I went to this
00:17:25
event down the street here I heard him
00:17:27
gave this whole po rant and then
00:17:29
afterwards I came up to him and said
00:17:31
Kevin what are you talking about do you
00:17:32
really want to cause World War III and
00:17:34
all of a sudden he backpedal and he
00:17:36
started saying these conciliatory things
00:17:38
and I was like okay maybe he just went
00:17:40
on this like toot where you know it was
00:17:42
kind of off topic toot he tooted he to
00:17:47
did you reto
00:17:49
it but a after I kind of had this like
00:17:52
sidebar with him I'm like okay maybe
00:17:54
it's not so bad maybe you know I think
00:17:56
he he promised that he would impose
00:17:58
saying he's in the pocket of special
00:17:59
interests let's be clear well I think he
00:18:02
well no not quite Jason cuz he didn't
00:18:04
quote toot it he's just he quote to it
00:18:06
he just twe heed it what I would say is
00:18:09
that he was really good in any
00:18:12
particular meeting at saying
00:18:13
conciliatory things to get somebody to
00:18:17
like him and to get their back is what
00:18:20
you're saying well I mean I think a lot
00:18:21
of politicians are and so he told me
00:18:24
what I wanted to hear I think he
00:18:25
promised that he would get would you
00:18:27
have been with the eight or with well
00:18:29
guys the fundamental I'm CU would you
00:18:30
have voted with the eight or would you
00:18:31
voted with the rest as if you were I
00:18:33
think I would have voted with the eight
00:18:34
I mean even though I like look I like
00:18:36
McCarthy he's a likable guy but again I
00:18:40
think that press conference he held
00:18:42
revealed the truth of it which is okay
00:18:43
he was bsing me his real view is that we
00:18:46
need to support Ukraine for as long as
00:18:48
it takes and he told me something
00:18:50
different his Grand bargain was that he
00:18:52
would stop these continuing resolution
00:18:54
pork barrel bills that was the Grand
00:18:56
bargain that was the thing that said and
00:18:58
if I don't do it you guys can vote me
00:18:59
out do you guys remember this yeah you
00:19:01
know that was his negotiation so this
00:19:03
really was kind of like a feta comp the
00:19:05
minute he decided to pass yet another
00:19:07
pork barrel Bill he also seemed kind of
00:19:09
frustrated that like he just he seemed
00:19:11
like he was spent in dealing with all
00:19:12
this it surprising to me is why the
00:19:14
Republican Party allowed Matt gates to
00:19:16
get all of the attention and to be like
00:19:19
the organizing principal because he's
00:19:20
such a loathsome individual to so many
00:19:23
people both in the Republican party and
00:19:25
outside the guy the guy broke a
00:19:27
fundamental promise
00:19:28
and that promise wasn't that provocative
00:19:31
it's just like yeah we're going to pass
00:19:32
12 bills we're just going to follow the
00:19:35
law and he couldn't follow the law and
00:19:38
so why doesn't anybody else stand up why
00:19:39
does it have to take these eight kind of
00:19:41
coalescing with with the Dems it's it's
00:19:43
really nutty actually yeah it's a very
00:19:46
strange series of events and by the way
00:19:48
I think you make just your last point
00:19:49
there this would not have happened if
00:19:51
hakeim Jeff didn't send down word that
00:19:53
all the Democrats were supposed to vote
00:19:55
with Matt Gates I think that this is a
00:19:59
vote against their long-term interest
00:20:01
because the fact of the matter is that
00:20:03
Kevin McCarthy ultimately was a very
00:20:05
pliant speaker and he was giving the
00:20:08
Democrats what they wanted on spending
00:20:10
on keeping government funded and open
00:20:12
Forever at higher and higher rates of
00:20:14
spending and on Ukraine they're never
00:20:17
going to get somebody who is more
00:20:18
compliant to your point I think what
00:20:20
what is really interesting and hopefully
00:20:22
beneficial for America is we've broken
00:20:25
the seal on unseating the speaker inter
00:20:28
term if they kind of like violate a
00:20:31
handful of these defined things and I
00:20:34
hope one of these things is the best
00:20:36
thing we could do for America is just
00:20:38
force all of these folks in Congress to
00:20:40
negotiate 12 bills a year keep them busy
00:20:43
focus on those bills get to like a
00:20:46
compromise get it to the Senate get it
00:20:48
voted get it to the president sign it
00:20:49
that's it if they if they just did that
00:20:52
we would probably spend a third to half
00:20:55
of less than we do now is Gates the
00:20:57
winner all this does he look like by the
00:20:59
way just just so you guys know like when
00:21:00
you try to propose elements of a bill
00:21:02
right in one of those real bills okay it
00:21:04
has to go to the the CPO and it has to
00:21:07
get scored right so for example we've
00:21:09
tried to propose certain aspects of
00:21:10
legislation and no matter whatever we
00:21:13
think about it there at least is an
00:21:15
independent body that scores it and says
00:21:18
here's the x-e cost the Y your cost
00:21:20
here's the benefits and so you get a
00:21:22
very clear sense and a transparent sense
00:21:24
that's published everybody about what
00:21:25
this is in CR you can avoid all of that
00:21:28
stuff there is no
00:21:32
close study of any of this stuff and you
00:21:35
know David is right you get it on a
00:21:38
Thursday night at like 8:00 pm and you
00:21:41
vote Friday at 6 you know or like at at
00:21:43
midday how is anybody supposed to
00:21:45
approve a multi- trillion dollar package
00:21:47
logically you know it's riddled with
00:21:49
nonsense and it makes no sense that you
00:21:51
don't break up the work and do it
00:21:52
thoughtfully each time I guess should
00:21:55
they change this ability for one member
00:21:58
to propose a resolution to remove the
00:22:00
city speaker yeah it's comically easy to
00:22:03
vacate the speaker based on the rules
00:22:05
they passed however I think it's
00:22:06
important to understand why that rule
00:22:08
happened it happened because McCarthy
00:22:09
was so desperate to become speaker if
00:22:12
you go back to the history of this thing
00:22:15
McCarthy was actually passed over for
00:22:17
speaker back in
00:22:18
2015 when he made this Gaff on TV about
00:22:21
the Benghazi select committee being set
00:22:23
up to hurt Hillary's poll numbers
00:22:25
obviously that wasn't an admission that
00:22:27
helped Republicans and he only got the
00:22:29
job this year by making it so easy to
00:22:32
take it away from him and remember they
00:22:33
did like 15 rounds of voting so this is
00:22:36
the problem frankly one of the problems
00:22:38
with McCarthy is he is a little bit too
00:22:39
desperate to have the job sometimes when
00:22:42
you get a guy who is so desperate for a
00:22:44
job they're not that effective in it
00:22:46
because they're too worried about it
00:22:47
being taken away what you want is a guy
00:22:50
who's like look take it or leave it I
00:22:51
could do this job or not do this job
00:22:53
that's the only way you're going to get
00:22:54
somebody tough in the job I think the
00:22:56
guy they should look to right now would
00:22:57
be Jim Jordan I think Jim Jordan would
00:22:58
be excellent because at the end of the
00:23:01
day you want a speaker who's going to be
00:23:03
feared not loved like Nancy Pelosi quite
00:23:06
frankly you need a republican speaker
00:23:08
who's going to be tough who doesn't give
00:23:10
a if you like him or not I mean
00:23:12
this is I think Kevin's downfall is that
00:23:14
he cared too much about people liking
00:23:15
him as a result in the room he would
00:23:18
always tell you something that you liked
00:23:21
but the problem is that he can't deliver
00:23:22
on that yeah so let's get ready to move
00:23:24
on to next topic but just a final
00:23:25
question here do you guys think a
00:23:27
shutdown in a couple of weeks because
00:23:29
that's uh how long the extension is
00:23:31
would be productive for the country if
00:23:33
it if it becomes the back stop against
00:23:35
out of control spending if it stops the
00:23:37
CR process it'll be effective to the
00:23:39
tune of above $500
00:23:41
billion it'll be half a trillion dollar
00:23:44
effective so the a couple of weeks of
00:23:47
the the government not spending money
00:23:50
meaning if you if you kill the Omnibus
00:23:51
Bill yeah and or you have like an
00:23:54
extremely slim down version of that bill
00:23:56
and you revert back to this 12 bills a
00:23:58
year process that's supposed to be the
00:24:00
law it'll be more effective you you'd
00:24:02
save half a trillion dollars probably
00:24:03
yeah just finish the point on that I
00:24:05
think we have to just look at this Wall
00:24:06
Street Journal article that came out
00:24:07
this morning where it was called Rising
00:24:09
interest rates mean deficits finally
00:24:11
matter finally there's a recog we called
00:24:14
it we called it yeah finally there's a
00:24:16
recognition both politically and
00:24:18
economically that our deficits and debt
00:24:21
are too big and the key point of this
00:24:23
article is it says most of the increase
00:24:26
this is in long-term rates is due to the
00:24:28
part of yields called the term premium
00:24:30
which has nothing to do with inflation
00:24:31
or short-term rates so until now our
00:24:34
interest rate problems have been about
00:24:36
the FED raising short-term rates to
00:24:38
combat inflation now we're seeing a
00:24:40
separate problem which is long rates are
00:24:42
going up and the long rates are going up
00:24:44
because of this concern that the federal
00:24:46
government has too much debt and so Bond
00:24:48
holders are starting to demand a higher
00:24:51
long-term premium to hold that debt it's
00:24:54
what we've been warning about for a long
00:24:55
time now and it's finally happening so
00:24:58
unless the political system gets serious
00:25:00
about reducing deficits even if
00:25:03
inflation comes down and even if the FED
00:25:06
Cuts short-term rates you're going to
00:25:08
have a problem with long-term rates
00:25:10
remaining high and that is going to keep
00:25:12
the cost of Capital High and that is
00:25:14
going to reduce long-term innovation in
00:25:15
the economy it's bad for us it's
00:25:18
horrible for us yeah terrible for us
00:25:20
let's go to another troubling situation
00:25:22
what's happening at the southern border
00:25:25
obviously videos of migrants crossing
00:25:27
the southern order are all over X Reddit
00:25:29
YouTube Etc one side saying it's chaos
00:25:32
the other side uh arguably been ignoring
00:25:35
it so let's start with the two numbers
00:25:37
that we actually know put a bunch of
00:25:39
time into trying to figure out if there
00:25:41
are any accurate numbers talk to a bunch
00:25:43
of people on Twitter and other places
00:25:45
there are only uh we have very very
00:25:47
flawed data on what's actually happening
00:25:50
there we do have anecdotal videos
00:25:52
obviously our friend Elon went down to
00:25:53
the border and did a video
00:25:55
himself the best data with the caveat
00:25:57
that it's very flawed is the count of
00:26:00
Encounters this is not folks who get
00:26:02
through this is folks who were
00:26:04
encountered so this is the official
00:26:07
southernland uh border encounters from
00:26:09
the US Customs and boorder Protection
00:26:11
Agency since 2022 2020 and 2021 there
00:26:14
were obviously coid issues on the border
00:26:17
so it was much more lock down uh half a
00:26:19
million people in 2020 1.7 in 20121
00:26:23
2.4 rounding up there and in
00:26:26
2023 supposedly rounding up 2 million
00:26:29
through 10 months tracking on Pace for
00:26:31
2.3 the exact same as last year however
00:26:34
it certainly doesn't look like that it's
00:26:36
the exact same again that's from the
00:26:38
border patrol and that is encounters not
00:26:41
actually people who got through and then
00:26:44
the border states are saying that those
00:26:47
numbers are wrong and there's a lot more
00:26:49
people getting through and Eric Adams in
00:26:50
New York where a lot of these people are
00:26:53
being
00:26:54
sent and this has obviously been the
00:26:56
most politicized issue I think of the
00:26:58
last decade Governor Abbott in August of
00:27:03
2022 quote New York City is the ideal
00:27:06
destination for these migrants who can
00:27:07
receive the abundance of city services
00:27:09
and housing that mayor Adams has boasted
00:27:11
about within the sanctuary City here are
00:27:13
the clips and then I'll get your
00:27:15
responses from those when we get back
00:27:17
this is horrific when you think about uh
00:27:20
What uh the governor uh is doing the
00:27:22
governor of Texas but we are going to
00:27:24
set the right message the right tone of
00:27:27
being here for these families before we
00:27:30
begin busing illegal immigrants up to
00:27:33
New York it was just Texas and Arizona
00:27:36
that bore the brunt of all of the chaos
00:27:39
and all the problems that come with it
00:27:41
now the rest of America is understanding
00:27:43
exactly what is going on all right so
00:27:46
this is obviously something that New
00:27:49
York City is unable to handle those are
00:27:51
from August of last year when this was
00:27:53
flaming up according to Abbot Texas has
00:27:55
given bus tickets to 42,000
00:27:58
migrants and as of late September 119
00:28:01
migrants have arrived in New York City
00:28:02
since the spring of 22 about 13% of New
00:28:05
York City migrants have been bust in
00:28:06
from
00:28:07
Texas I'll stop there and just get your
00:28:10
general reactions to what you all
00:28:13
believe is happening at the border since
00:28:15
we're getting a highly politicized take
00:28:17
on each of these it's become super
00:28:18
polarized and the numbers uh any
00:28:21
accurate numbers do not exist sax I
00:28:24
don't think it's hard to understand
00:28:25
what's going on at the border I think
00:28:28
there are people who well I said it's
00:28:30
hard to understand the numbers of what's
00:28:31
going on with the bo I don't even think
00:28:32
the numbers are that hard you have a
00:28:34
better source of numbers I have some
00:28:35
numbers that are similar to yours but
00:28:37
okay so statista goes back to 2019 so
00:28:41
the numbers I have are about in 2019
00:28:44
which is when rain and Mexico went into
00:28:46
effect the number was 851 th000 then it
00:28:50
went down to 400,000 because of coid and
00:28:53
title 42 then in 2021 we had about 1 .7
00:28:57
million which was a new record then in
00:28:59
2022 we up to 2.7 million which was a
00:29:01
new record and the question is what is
00:29:04
happening in 2023 obviously we don't
00:29:06
have a full year of data but given that
00:29:08
we've eliminated Raina Mexico and title
00:29:11
42 I don't think anybody seriously
00:29:13
doubts that we're headed for a new
00:29:15
record and in fact the Washington Post
00:29:18
had articles in August and September
00:29:19
saying that those months were alltime
00:29:22
records and now they're surpassing
00:29:24
11,000 daily migrant encounters at the
00:29:26
border
00:29:27
just twice last week so and you know
00:29:30
what what Elon reported from the bo send
00:29:32
that link can you send that link so we
00:29:33
can pull and then also just wasc news
00:29:36
that statista is um an aggregator they
00:29:39
don't do primary research to see now so
00:29:40
which one those numbers were pretty
00:29:42
similar to to yours maybe from the same
00:29:44
Source who knows we also have the video
00:29:46
evidence we have the fact that you know
00:29:48
Elon went down there and reported
00:29:50
exactly what we're seeing in other
00:29:51
context which is new records virtually
00:29:54
every day and every week and every month
00:29:56
the board border patrol agents are
00:29:58
basically being overrun and so you made
00:30:01
the correct point that this only
00:30:03
measures encounters it doesn't uh
00:30:05
measure the actual number of people
00:30:06
going through well if border patrol is
00:30:09
overrun then the number of encounters
00:30:12
relative to the number people getting
00:30:13
through is obviously going to be very
00:30:14
understated so I think we're on track
00:30:17
for another huge record in 2023 and the
00:30:20
point is that the pace is accelerating
00:30:22
Elon gave the simple math there's eight
00:30:24
billion people in the world how many of
00:30:25
them would want to be in the United
00:30:26
States if they could probably billions
00:30:29
at least half of them yeah at least half
00:30:31
of them and I don't blame them okay I
00:30:33
want to be in the country World okay but
00:30:36
obviously we can't handle all the people
00:30:37
who want to be here and the word has
00:30:40
gone out via social media via Word of
00:30:42
Mouth at the border is effectively open
00:30:45
and we've seen numerous videos it wasn't
00:30:47
just Elon when RFK went down there to
00:30:49
Yuma
00:30:50
Arizona count a big hole in the wall and
00:30:53
people were just lining up and and well
00:30:54
but it was 100 different countries right
00:30:56
I mean we we it was
00:31:00
from eag the is you've got all of these
00:31:03
different points where there is no wall
00:31:06
and people are just lining up and being
00:31:08
let through and in some cases they're
00:31:10
just running through because the border
00:31:13
patrol is is overrun so we effectively
00:31:15
have no border I mean let's admit the
00:31:18
truth now yeah and I think that the
00:31:20
mainstream media and the Biden
00:31:21
Administration their policy was
00:31:23
basically See No Evil Hear No Evil and
00:31:25
to deny the reality of what was
00:31:27
happening Eric Adams was one of the
00:31:29
first Democrats to break ranks saying
00:31:31
listen we can see the migrants uh lining
00:31:35
up in tents going around the block we
00:31:37
are trying to put them up in hotels it's
00:31:39
costing us 12 billion we can't afford it
00:31:42
but Eric Adams has always been a little
00:31:43
bit of a Maverick inside the Democratic
00:31:45
party we talked about how he was tough
00:31:47
on crime during the chasa Budin era
00:31:49
which is why I supported him he's a
00:31:50
moderate but he was a moderate but then
00:31:52
you had Kathy hokel who's the governor
00:31:54
of New York who's nothing if not a
00:31:57
machine politician just in the last week
00:32:00
saying we cannot handle this so she
00:32:01
broke ranks which was I think a big news
00:32:04
story and now the latest is that the
00:32:07
Biden Administration itself might be
00:32:09
breaking ranks I think jamath you posted
00:32:12
a really interesting story that mayorcas
00:32:14
who's the Secretary of DHS just posted a
00:32:17
notice in the Federal Register which
00:32:19
said there is presently an acute and
00:32:21
immediate need to construct physical
00:32:23
barriers and roads in the vicinity of
00:32:25
the board of United States
00:32:27
they don't say wall don't say the W word
00:32:29
just in order to prevent unlawful
00:32:31
entries into the United States now there
00:32:32
was no press conference on this the way
00:32:34
that this got reported is some reporter
00:32:36
was doing their job keeping track of the
00:32:38
Federal Register and saw that mayorcas
00:32:41
had
00:32:43
posted a notice saying that they need to
00:32:45
construct a wall now Biden hasn't said
00:32:48
this no one on the administration said
00:32:49
this but clearly for obvious reasons
00:32:51
yeah for obvious reasons so Jason what
00:32:53
do you think the obvious reason is well
00:32:55
the obvious reason is Trump entire
00:32:58
presidency was predicated on hey we're
00:33:00
going to build this wall and but I'm
00:33:01
saying go back and say that he was right
00:33:04
is untenable to even at the of National
00:33:07
Security it's like yes and so they're
00:33:09
going to do the right thing obviously
00:33:10
and build the wall but they don't want
00:33:11
to say it so it's just ridiculous but
00:33:13
just one important point to what David
00:33:14
said New York City has a right to
00:33:15
shelter so that means every immigrant
00:33:17
who comes there they have to put them in
00:33:19
a hotel and these are like turns out $4
00:33:22
$500 a night hotels so this has become
00:33:24
cataclysmic there obviously needs to be
00:33:26
a border
00:33:27
and uh it's ridiculous to say there
00:33:29
shouldn't be a border nobody believes
00:33:30
that I don't know why this
00:33:31
Administration just can't admit that
00:33:33
there needs to be a a border of some
00:33:35
kind and we could talk about what that
00:33:36
is but well no actually it's a better
00:33:39
solution than a wall but we'll get to
00:33:40
that um what is it well I I don't want
00:33:43
to jump chath he had something to say so
00:33:44
Cham I'll explain it in a second if you
00:33:46
want or I can jump to it no jump to it
00:33:48
jump to it okay so obviously people are
00:33:50
talking about a wall walls are a
00:33:51
terrible solution uh because there are
00:33:53
ladders that can go over them pretty
00:33:55
easily what you really need to have his
00:33:57
eyes on it and the two best Solutions
00:33:59
you can see them here Israel has had a
00:34:01
really they understand borders really
00:34:04
well and so what you're seeing if you're
00:34:06
watching are these um Towers which do a
00:34:09
great job of monitoring the border and
00:34:11
you could put about 2,000 of these
00:34:13
towers they they have a range of easily
00:34:15
a mile this is neg border by EIT systems
00:34:19
this a Israeli based company it's 160t
00:34:21
surveillance Tower andrel actually has a
00:34:23
Sentry Tower as well our friend uh
00:34:26
friend of the OD Palmer luy company
00:34:28
andril uh and obviously oh and the the
00:34:32
border patrol already has 10 of the
00:34:34
towers why do you see has an either or
00:34:36
I'm just curious like why would I think
00:34:38
that I think that these smart lamposts
00:34:41
as I call them are the number one first
00:34:43
thing to do because you could deploy
00:34:45
these in a fraction of the time you
00:34:47
could have 2,000 of these in under a
00:34:49
year for $4 billion and so these only
00:34:53
cost $2 million each the 10 towers that
00:34:56
we're put in were put in at 26 million
00:34:57
in the pilot so if you put 2,000 of
00:34:59
these towers in and you just picked four
00:35:01
different vendors so they do 500 each
00:35:02
and you test them that would be $4
00:35:04
billion that would be nothing what do
00:35:06
you do when you when the camera spots a
00:35:09
person you send uh intercepts there and
00:35:10
then you build the walls where people
00:35:12
are crossing most so that would be my
00:35:15
they're Crossing most they're Crossing
00:35:16
obviously you build you look for hotpots
00:35:18
David so you would but we don't there's
00:35:20
hot spots that we don't know about so
00:35:22
I'd say you deploy these for four
00:35:23
billion very quickly and then wear their
00:35:25
hotpots you obviously build walls but
00:35:27
you're still going to need can I be
00:35:28
frank about this sure be as Frank as you
00:35:30
like look regardless of what you think
00:35:32
about Trump this mayorcas revolation
00:35:35
completely and utterly vindicates his
00:35:38
approach to wanting to build a wall and
00:35:40
there's so many people who won't just
00:35:42
admit that he was right that we need a
00:35:44
strong border wall not because it's
00:35:46
perfect not because you can't climb over
00:35:48
it if you have the right tools but
00:35:49
because a wall is more defensible than
00:35:52
an open field now look I'm all in favor
00:35:54
of these towers and the cameras and my
00:35:56
understanding is that a lot of the parts
00:35:58
of Trump's wall did have cameras on them
00:35:59
yeah I know he he get point is that you
00:36:02
have video now coming out of thousands
00:36:04
of people streaming across running the
00:36:07
word is out you need a wall to stop that
00:36:09
you also then need cameras and Border
00:36:11
guards and all the rest of it just so
00:36:12
you know 2,000 miles of wall is going to
00:36:15
be like a decade long project so that's
00:36:17
my only Point okay it's only a decade
00:36:19
long if you allow all of these core
00:36:21
challenges that are designed to
00:36:23
frustrate it the fact of the matter is
00:36:24
and look we don't need 2,000 Mi of wall
00:36:26
because there are a lot of natural
00:36:28
barriers along the border you know where
00:36:29
you have deep rivers or mountains or
00:36:31
whatever we're not going to need the
00:36:32
wall however there are pieces of the
00:36:35
wall that were literally laying on the
00:36:37
ground they were unfinished from Trump's
00:36:39
term by the way Trump should have gotten
00:36:40
that done he didn't in any event
00:36:42
whatever the point is the bid
00:36:43
Administration was actually selling
00:36:45
those pieces of wall for scrap metal for
00:36:47
two cents on the dollar this was a story
00:36:49
that came out now they're admitting that
00:36:51
we need the wall that was pure politics
00:36:54
that makes no sense they had the
00:36:56
construction Ru materials they should
00:36:57
have just finished
00:36:59
it yeah the American ridiculous that's
00:37:03
like crazy it's because the American
00:37:05
government didn't like who said the
00:37:08
right thing yes and the tone in which he
00:37:10
said it yes and they didn't like the the
00:37:13
separating of children from whatever and
00:37:15
they politicized that both parties are
00:37:18
equally just gross at this issue it
00:37:21
should be a point-based system you lock
00:37:22
the border and you allow people in you
00:37:25
know as I've said 10 times on this
00:37:27
podcast based on Merit what they're
00:37:30
going to contribute to our society
00:37:31
that's that's recruitment some amount of
00:37:34
people who are need Asylum because
00:37:36
they're going to be murdered I.E
00:37:37
Afghanistan people who supported us
00:37:39
afghanis who supported us during the war
00:37:41
and then finally the orderly process of
00:37:43
people applying to come in here do your
00:37:45
jobs everybody this article please Nick
00:37:48
what happens when you get to the Border
00:37:49
guys do you just get admitted to
00:37:52
America this is insane okay the bid
00:37:55
Administration started auctioning off
00:37:58
what they called spare border wall parts
00:38:01
okay I mean how does Biden live this
00:38:03
down I think this could cost of the
00:38:04
election yeah you're 100% right about
00:38:06
that yeah yeah I think this is like this
00:38:08
is a setup for a very bad ad absolutely
00:38:11
yeah I mean I think this is just because
00:38:12
it's become so politicized point-based
00:38:15
system recruitment over chaos build a
00:38:19
wall build do what do you do in the
00:38:21
meantime there there are tens of
00:38:24
thousands of people a day hitting the
00:38:25
southern border National Guard we have
00:38:27
something called the National Guard we
00:38:29
send them there they have to be deployed
00:38:30
anyway you just deploy the National
00:38:31
Guard ter but say more say more like you
00:38:34
would put the military to basically turn
00:38:36
these people around of course of course
00:38:38
you turn them around yes that's it you
00:38:40
bu National Guard will be quickest the
00:38:42
towers will be second quickest and the
00:38:44
wall is going to take forever but you
00:38:45
need a wall but how do you but how do
00:38:46
you process the Asylum claim because
00:38:48
isn't the whole point of Asylum like you
00:38:50
can't send them back to this country in
00:38:51
which they're going to be killed in and
00:38:53
so it's an imperfect process chath
00:38:55
obviously so saak and I and a few other
00:38:58
folks we held a fundraiser for Vi
00:39:00
ramaswami last week and we talked about
00:39:02
this a lot and one of the things that we
00:39:05
learned is that all the people that come
00:39:07
to the southern border are trained in
00:39:09
YouTube and Tik Tok and Instagram
00:39:12
exactly what to say so that you have to
00:39:14
accept the Asylum claim and for the
00:39:17
Asylum there should be a limited number
00:39:18
of them that's it just you have this
00:39:20
many per year I understand but but you
00:39:22
don't know whether that person who was
00:39:24
helping us in Afghanistan ends up coming
00:39:27
in October and not in March and that's
00:39:29
the reason why they can't get in the the
00:39:31
thing that I learned is that it's a it's
00:39:33
a specific script it's available in
00:39:35
multiple languages right so anybody who
00:39:37
gets to the southern border knows
00:39:39
exactly what to say so that America is
00:39:41
forced to accept you that's not how
00:39:43
Asylum should work the bad news is not
00:39:45
everybody's going to get in not
00:39:46
everybody will get in that's it Jal
00:39:47
there's two things we need to do in
00:39:49
addition to to your point about sending
00:39:51
troops to the Border because we do need
00:39:52
the Manpower yeah it's obvious number
00:39:55
one to Chamas point you can't just say
00:39:57
the word Asylum and get in that doesn't
00:39:59
make sense you should have to produce
00:40:00
evidence of actually meeting the the the
00:40:03
case for Asylum which is not being
00:40:06
economically disadvantaged it's being
00:40:07
politically prosecuted where if you're
00:40:09
yes sent back to your home country
00:40:11
they're going to put you in jail or kill
00:40:12
you and there aren't many countries in
00:40:13
the world quite frankly where that is
00:40:17
going to be a valid claim just to be
00:40:19
honest about it I mean if you have a
00:40:21
freedom fighter from Iran coming over
00:40:23
who's going to be put in jail or killed
00:40:25
let him in but that's not most of the
00:40:27
people lining up at our border if you're
00:40:28
coming from Mexico there's a very small
00:40:30
chance that you are being the you got to
00:40:33
do is you got to reinstitute remain in
00:40:34
Mexico that was the policy yeah you
00:40:37
can't have just waiting on this side of
00:40:39
the Border because they're never going
00:40:40
to show up in court yeah I mean listen
00:40:43
we we want immigration to this country
00:40:45
it has to be logical and the fact is
00:40:47
everybody wants to come here that's a
00:40:49
great thing we should be taking
00:40:50
advantage of that but it can't be chaos
00:40:52
it's got to be orderly that's what
00:40:54
everybody wants I don't know why how
00:40:56
this became a political issue everybody
00:40:57
wants orderly everybody wants
00:40:59
recruitment nobody wants an open border
00:41:01
well but but Jal in order for it not to
00:41:03
be a political issue you need both
00:41:04
parties to agree and they currently
00:41:06
don't I mean think about it what's in
00:41:07
Biden's interest right now is to do a
00:41:09
180 on this issue before it's too late
00:41:11
he's got to do it yes absolutely and
00:41:13
it's very simple for him to say which is
00:41:14
but he hasn't done it because everybody
00:41:16
knows that the Border doesn't have a
00:41:18
wall we've seen an increase there's been
00:41:21
a 10x increase this the situation on the
00:41:23
field has changed therefore we're going
00:41:25
to change and to do all these things and
00:41:27
if one of them is building a wall and
00:41:28
you want to say Goa you can say gotcha
00:41:30
but it's the right thing to do because
00:41:32
data has changed my opinion where do we
00:41:35
get to the point where data can't change
00:41:36
your
00:41:37
opinion data should change your opinion
00:41:40
the data is clear that more people are
00:41:41
coming through that's why I made such a
00:41:42
point at the top of this is like we
00:41:44
don't even have good data what these
00:41:45
sensor Towers would do would at least
00:41:47
give us data and would give us Clarity
00:41:50
and then you only need a you know a unit
00:41:52
every half mile so you need 4,000 units
00:41:55
patrolling the the border and they would
00:41:57
catch everybody this isn't as expensive
00:41:59
as people think it
00:42:00
is this could be I mean the the last the
00:42:03
last amount of money we gave what was
00:42:05
the last appropriation for Ukraine saak
00:42:07
since I'll give you a red
00:42:09
me well we've already appropriated or
00:42:11
authoriz over 100 billion and they're
00:42:14
asking for another 24 billion okay so
00:42:17
for three or 4% of that cost we could
00:42:19
have these sensor Towers it's crazy
00:42:21
we're defending Ukraine's border but not
00:42:22
our own it's a very valid point
00:42:24
independent pop Republicans arms it's
00:42:27
this combined with the the lack of
00:42:30
fiscal discipline now the craziness
00:42:32
about this is if we were sitting here 20
00:42:34
years ago the Republicans were trying to
00:42:36
open the border to have more low skilled
00:42:38
workers to work in restaurants to work
00:42:41
in businesses that's not the place we
00:42:43
are today we have too many people coming
00:42:44
in these are not just it's even worse
00:42:46
low sced workers to to pick vegetables
00:42:49
it's a different group there was a point
00:42:51
in time Jason where the Wall Street
00:42:53
Journal editorial page which is really
00:42:55
The Voice the GOP establishment yes
00:42:58
supported a constitutional amendment in
00:43:00
favor of an open border this was very
00:43:02
much the point of view of the old
00:43:04
Republican party which was this
00:43:06
libertarian open borders open trade free
00:43:09
markets position and the results of
00:43:13
those policies have been partially
00:43:15
disastrous I mean I understand the value
00:43:17
of free trade and so forth but and
00:43:19
obviously want to have high sched
00:43:20
immigration we've talked about that but
00:43:22
it was too much of a good thing I mean
00:43:24
they didn't draw intelligent itions but
00:43:27
we still have I think this to your point
00:43:29
about the Battle inside the Republican
00:43:31
party we still have that old GOP
00:43:33
establishment and now there's this new
00:43:35
populist Wing that wants to make I think
00:43:37
sensible changes here's the Wall Street
00:43:39
Journal story from 2001 open after
00:43:42
borders why not there it is yeah that
00:43:45
was Bob Bartley who was the longtime
00:43:48
editorial page editor he was kind of
00:43:49
like a hero in the conservative movement
00:43:51
when I was in college I read a great
00:43:53
book by him called the seven fat years
00:43:55
about supply side economics and I think
00:43:57
he was right about a lot of that stuff
00:43:58
but along with that Economic Policy came
00:44:02
I think this open borders completely
00:44:04
open trade view that I think produced a
00:44:07
lot of negative results and has to be
00:44:09
Revisited and by the way there's a third
00:44:12
leg of that stool which is forever Wars
00:44:14
The Wall Street Journal is one of the
00:44:16
most pro-ukraine Publications there is
00:44:18
both in the news pages and in the
00:44:21
editorial page and they have never
00:44:24
Revisited the results of our disastrous
00:44:27
foreign policy where we keep intervening
00:44:28
all over the world this is the old
00:44:31
Republican party there's a new
00:44:33
Republican party that is emerging and
00:44:35
unfortunately Kevin McCarthy found
00:44:37
himself on the wrong side of that divide
00:44:39
all right so moving on to our next topic
00:44:41
uh there was a notable accident with a
00:44:43
cruise Robo taxi in San Francisco this
00:44:46
week or not this is Being Framed by some
00:44:50
as the first automated Cruise vehicle to
00:44:52
get in an accident but what actually
00:44:54
happened is not not accurate so there
00:44:57
was a hit- and run incident in San
00:44:59
Francisco a woman was struck by a human
00:45:01
driver that human driver fled the scene
00:45:03
the hit and run launched tragically the
00:45:05
woman underneath a cruise vehicle the
00:45:07
cruise vehicle break aggressively
00:45:09
according to cruise but stopped with its
00:45:10
rear tire on top of the woman's leg
00:45:13
police asked Crews to keep the vehicle
00:45:15
in place and lock it which they
00:45:17
did emergency respondents arrived and
00:45:21
used the jaws of life to get the car off
00:45:23
the woman's leg local media the story up
00:45:26
and the police asked Cruz to leave the
00:45:30
car leave the car on the woman's leg yes
00:45:34
I I why would they do that well I think
00:45:36
actually um sometimes moving no no I I I
00:45:40
do think um for my time is em sometimes
00:45:42
moving the person can cause more damage
00:45:44
than leaving it until you have the
00:45:45
Emergency Services on the scene so they
00:45:48
like to wait for emergency services and
00:45:50
let because moving it you have a broken
00:45:52
bone hit your fir your femoral artery
00:45:55
and you could bleed out so they just say
00:45:57
stay where you are don't make any more
00:45:58
movements until dude and leave the car
00:46:00
on top of them that's ridiculous it's on
00:46:03
the person's leg so that would mean that
00:46:05
they're not in any danger it might be
00:46:07
painful but if you were to move them I
00:46:10
was taught this when I was in EMT you if
00:46:11
you move people you have to be very
00:46:13
careful because you could cause a spine
00:46:14
injury they could become paralyzed or
00:46:15
you could cut a major artery you got to
00:46:17
be very how long were you an EMT I was
00:46:19
the first class of what was called emtf
00:46:21
FRS First Responders and I worked at
00:46:24
Bravo ambulance in Brooklyn as on a
00:46:26
volunteer one for about three or four
00:46:27
years did you have like a tight outfit
00:46:29
like a tight Polo what did you wear like
00:46:31
skinny jeans did you have skinny jeans
00:46:33
green pants and a white collared shirt
00:46:36
and um yeah I never told you guys the
00:46:39
first call I ever got I never told you
00:46:41
that story were you like were you like a
00:46:42
sexy paramedic or were you just like a
00:46:44
paramedic I can be whatever you want me
00:46:45
to be your whatever works for your
00:46:47
fantasies he's blushing he's my first
00:46:51
you were a sexy paramedic I was a little
00:46:52
sexy as a paramed got him blushing
00:46:55
here's my first call I swear to God it's
00:46:56
the night before Thanksgiving Wednesday
00:46:57
night it's a big night in Brooklyn I
00:46:59
don't know if in other places but the
00:47:00
night before Thanksgiving everybody goes
00:47:01
out and parties so big Wednesday happens
00:47:04
first call comes in I was I was
00:47:05
originally the person who picked up the
00:47:07
I was the operator at the 911 but then
00:47:09
my second job I was on the bus and so
00:47:11
first call first shift is Big Wednesday
00:47:14
guy gets we get a call that a guy got
00:47:16
stabbed we go the guy is outside TJ
00:47:19
Bentley's and I kid you not the guy was
00:47:22
in charge of the ambulance says cut the
00:47:23
jacket off I take my shears we have
00:47:26
these really sharp scissors and boom we
00:47:27
go right up the sleeve we cut his jacket
00:47:29
he goes oh my member's only
00:47:32
jacket we cut him open and his giant
00:47:35
hairy chest blood is pumping out like
00:47:38
it's like a little uh water fountain and
00:47:41
the the guy who was running the bus I
00:47:43
remember yesterday puts his hand on both
00:47:44
the says guy you got bigger problems
00:47:46
than this member only jacket he says get
00:47:48
the Mast pants the mass pants just so
00:47:50
you know are used in war we get trained
00:47:52
in them you never use them Mass pants
00:47:54
are a blood pressure cuff you put over
00:47:56
people's pants to take the blood from
00:47:58
their legs put it into their chest so
00:48:00
that they at least survive the guy says
00:48:03
get the mask pants I said get the mask
00:48:04
pants the mass pants are packed away you
00:48:07
never use them I'm getting the mask
00:48:08
pants out we're we're whing down Fourth
00:48:10
Avenue uh to get this guy and his blood
00:48:13
pressure is dropping his heart rate's
00:48:14
dropping blood all over the bus we're
00:48:16
trying to control the bleeding he
00:48:17
survived did you save him we saved him
00:48:19
yeah but that was my first call first
00:48:22
call nuts this was a volunteer gck like
00:48:25
get paid for it nope no not everything's
00:48:28
about money freeberg not everything's
00:48:29
about money freeberg I'm not saying it
00:48:31
is I'm just asking I'm joking with you
00:48:33
just want to be a superhero yeah that's
00:48:35
all I uh I texted I texted Jamie Jason's
00:48:40
brother and I asked him if this was true
00:48:43
and I asked for a photo hey Nick you
00:48:46
wanna you want to put up the photo the
00:48:47
second one please oh there I
00:48:49
am there I am your heart stops this is
00:48:53
the guy you want to come restart
00:48:56
Dave did your heart stop did your heart
00:48:58
stop Dave CU I'm going to resuscitate it
00:49:01
Nick show the other one this is this is
00:49:03
the original outfit that when you became
00:49:04
a par oh no this better not be x-rated
00:49:07
oh god oh there I like the second one
00:49:09
better yeah we know which one you like
00:49:11
better days is that a nurse is that a
00:49:14
thermometer he's got what what does he
00:49:15
have in his hand a needle needle or a
00:49:18
thermometer I think that's like a coke
00:49:19
bottle I think that could be a
00:49:21
thermometer we might need to check your
00:49:22
temperature David it's like a Pepsi
00:49:24
bottle what the hell we're going to take
00:49:26
your temperature Dave I don't know if
00:49:27
you're going to like it what kind of
00:49:29
temperature does that take for you in a
00:49:30
coup well I know it's going to be really
00:49:33
hot oh Jason you did a great job
00:49:36
as we really appreciate your
00:49:38
contributions wow great job all right
00:49:41
back to the story about Cruz this
00:49:43
terrible accident wow we got derailed
00:49:46
yeah well thanks for the work you did
00:49:48
jcal thanks for your service okay
00:49:53
so I'm G to take your
00:49:57
okay local media picked up you have that
00:49:59
eagle tattoo on your arm too that was
00:50:01
that was removable local media picked up
00:50:03
on this uh reporting that Cruz was
00:50:05
responsible for the
00:50:06
incident director of news for the San
00:50:09
Francisco Chronicle which is a lunatic
00:50:12
publication woman run over by Cru
00:50:14
self-driving car on Market Street in
00:50:16
Downtown San Francisco pulled from under
00:50:19
rear axle circumstances under
00:50:21
investigation the San Francisco standard
00:50:24
posted on a woman suffered traumatic
00:50:26
injuries after being trapped under a
00:50:27
cruise Robo taxi in downtown San
00:50:31
Francisco Monday night fire department
00:50:33
spokesperson said few weeks ago as you
00:50:35
know a video circulated on X formerly
00:50:38
known as Twitter of 20 or so Cruise
00:50:40
Vehicles causing a massive traffic jam
00:50:44
at an intersection in Austin the robo
00:50:46
taxi uh provider issue has become very
00:50:50
divisive here in San
00:50:52
Francisco there are now multiple
00:50:54
companies working
00:50:56
people in San Francisco will put
00:50:59
P to Brick the car yeah why would they
00:51:03
do that CU they're lunatics and it
00:51:05
represents technology that's the real
00:51:06
story here the real story is the very
00:51:09
deep disdain for technological progress
00:51:12
and the Second Story I think that's so
00:51:14
important is the total lack of
00:51:17
assumption of risk generally in the US
00:51:20
which limits progress in meaningful ways
00:51:22
let me just pull up some data that I
00:51:24
shared here so Nick if you pull up this
00:51:26
first chart I'll give you guys some some
00:51:28
numbers for every 100 million miles
00:51:30
driven in the US there's about one and a
00:51:32
half deaths car accident deaths there's
00:51:35
about 3.2 trillion miles driven per year
00:51:37
in the US so about 45,000 people die
00:51:39
from auto accidents each year this is a
00:51:41
crazy number 2.3 million people have
00:51:45
auto accident related injuries in the US
00:51:49
each year and there's 6 million car
00:51:51
crashes each year in the US that's one
00:51:54
crash for every half million miles
00:51:56
driven pretty you know incredible
00:51:58
statistics so if you look at this chart
00:52:00
it kind of shows the car fatalities over
00:52:02
time now what's the leading cause of car
00:52:05
fatalities we'll go to the next CH
00:52:07
distracted driving number one I should
00:52:10
have I should have done this as a quiz
00:52:11
number one DUI H Jesus that is
00:52:15
unbelievable that even today yeah number
00:52:18
two speeding number three not using your
00:52:21
seat belt so by the way all three of
00:52:24
those are the same yeah all so 80% of
00:52:26
those 80% of deaths are DUI speeding and
00:52:29
seat Bel nonuse now go to an autonomous
00:52:32
driving those are all opt in so now go
00:52:34
to an autonomous driving world you won't
00:52:36
see DUIs those things are programmed to
00:52:39
not speed obviously they're not going to
00:52:41
run if you don't put your seat Bel on
00:52:42
and then the fourth one is distracted
00:52:44
driving the real question is what
00:52:45
incremental accidents or what
00:52:47
incremental errors do autonomous cars
00:52:49
make that might you know kind of cause
00:52:53
new deaths or new accidents but the net
00:52:55
is that we have an incredible number of
00:52:58
car accidents 6 million accidents a year
00:53:00
2 and A5 million injuries a year 45,000
00:53:02
deaths a year most of which can be
00:53:04
prevented by things that are just basic
00:53:07
human stupidity the first three are all
00:53:09
opt in so what you're saying is Warren
00:53:10
Buffett and Geico are probably
00:53:13
responsible for lobbying and creating
00:53:15
this mess in San Francisco do the
00:53:17
insurance companies even need to exist
00:53:19
state
00:53:20
chamath conspiracy Corner well I
00:53:22
actually think there's a very different
00:53:24
driver for these things so I just want
00:53:26
to make the case first off that if you
00:53:28
if you zoom out and you don't take the
00:53:29
anecdotal story of the woman trapped
00:53:32
under the cruise car it's an awful story
00:53:35
but that anecdote allows people to
00:53:36
heighten Their Fear and heighten their
00:53:38
emotion and create a response to
00:53:40
autonomous driving as if that is a cause
00:53:42
of a problem but if you zoom out and you
00:53:45
ask the question dude 50,000 people a
00:53:47
year are dying because of human
00:53:48
stupidity that we can just completely
00:53:50
take off the streets it's such a
00:53:52
no-brainer that this technology should
00:53:54
progress agree and I'll give you guys
00:53:56
another story in 1999 there was the
00:53:58
clinical trials for gene therapy had
00:54:00
begun and uh there was a guy named
00:54:03
Ginger he was a young kid I think he was
00:54:05
18 or 19 years old and he passed away
00:54:08
from the gene therapy and it turns out
00:54:09
that there was actually doctor
00:54:11
malpractice that was primarily
00:54:14
responsible for his death after that
00:54:16
happened the FDA and The Regulators
00:54:18
stepped in and they basically put a halt
00:54:20
to all gene therapy clinical trials for
00:54:22
about seven years the number of lives
00:54:25
that were lost during that seven years
00:54:27
that went on that we did not make
00:54:28
progress on getting gene therapy
00:54:30
programs to Market is significantly
00:54:33
higher than the number of people that
00:54:35
would have lost lives which by the way
00:54:37
it turns out when you go back to this
00:54:39
this particular death was driven by
00:54:41
doctor malpractice not by the gene
00:54:43
therapy technology necessarily itself
00:54:45
and a lot of the stuff was understood
00:54:47
and I think we've heard Peter teal and
00:54:49
others speak a lot about how the US has
00:54:51
lost our appetite for risk we say that
00:54:54
if anyone dies or or if any bad thing
00:54:56
happens a new technology should not
00:54:57
progress but when we look at the benefit
00:55:00
of new technology relative to the cost
00:55:02
of it many of these Technologies should
00:55:04
progress at an accelerated Pace not at a
00:55:06
decelerated pace and the stepping in to
00:55:08
stop these things from moving forward
00:55:10
because number one we're rooly afraid of
00:55:12
new technology number two we you know we
00:55:14
kind of want to there's a lot of
00:55:15
regulatory capture and incumbency that
00:55:17
wants to see these things not succeed I
00:55:20
think we're really denying ourselves in
00:55:22
many cases the opportunity to realize
00:55:25
progress because we're so concerned
00:55:26
about any loss nuclear fion is a really
00:55:29
great example of this Three Mile Island
00:55:31
accident and Fukushima you know if you
00:55:33
look at the total number of lives off
00:55:35
and and there's incredible statistics
00:55:36
which I should probably not pull off the
00:55:38
top of my head I should probably make
00:55:39
sure I get the right numbers but
00:55:41
Chernobyl is another good example if you
00:55:42
look at the total number of incremental
00:55:44
cancers and the total number of lives
00:55:45
that were lost from Chernobyl you look
00:55:47
at Three Mile Island you look at
00:55:49
Fukushima
00:55:50
yeah6 you can you can make a statistical
00:55:53
argument that even even with those
00:55:55
extraordinary cataclysmic disasters the
00:55:58
number of lives that could have been
00:56:00
improved the number of lives that could
00:56:02
have been saved the progress that people
00:56:04
have been could have been uh could have
00:56:05
made the number of people that could
00:56:07
have been pulled out of poverty if we
00:56:08
made cheap abundant energy available at
00:56:11
an accelerated Pace rather than at a
00:56:12
decelerated pace it could have had a
00:56:14
much more significant effect so I view
00:56:16
this in the lens this autonomous driving
00:56:18
backlash in the lens of what we see with
00:56:19
a lot of new technologies which is we
00:56:22
lose our our appetite for risk we lose
00:56:24
our tolerance for any sort of
00:56:25
incremental loss and we lose perspective
00:56:27
on the fact that that loss is far far
00:56:31
far outweighed relative to the gains
00:56:33
that you gain if you can get that
00:56:34
technology into Market faster uh not
00:56:37
slower and I think that's just such a a
00:56:39
real kind of storyline that's not told
00:56:42
very often about how technology and
00:56:44
progress is limited particularly in the
00:56:46
modern age because once you have enough
00:56:47
stuff you're not willing to take as much
00:56:48
risk meanwhile you see China building
00:56:50
450 nuclear fion stations and the US
00:56:53
building none and I think think that
00:56:55
that's part of the story of where the US
00:56:57
is today mhm yeah I mean I know that was
00:57:00
a big rant but for me I'm just like so
00:57:02
sensitive to the stuff you know like all
00:57:04
of this like anti-tech stuff and
00:57:06
anti-progress stuff because you then
00:57:08
pick an anecdote and you focus on the
00:57:10
anecdote and you miss the bigger
00:57:11
picture well what's so funny about San
00:57:13
Francisco is this it's the city that
00:57:15
both is the first to approve the testing
00:57:17
of it and then where there's a small
00:57:20
fraction of citizens who try to go and
00:57:23
sabotage it I guess the next issue is
00:57:25
how close are we to having these at
00:57:27
scale cruises currently in San Francisco
00:57:30
Austin and Phoenix wh Mo very expensive
00:57:33
cars by the way uh they're currently in
00:57:36
San Francisco and Phoenix 247 they're
00:57:38
going to launch an LA soon and Tesla's
00:57:41
been working on this you know what's
00:57:42
another example of this SpaceX some
00:57:44
shrapnel got blown into the uninhabited
00:57:48
desert lands around Bach chica Texas
00:57:51
you're talking about Starship yeah
00:57:53
Starship the big one yeah yeah and they
00:57:54
come in and they're like shut the whole
00:57:56
thing down you can't have sharpnel
00:57:58
flying around think about the risk
00:58:00
tolerance equation here so if you delay
00:58:02
SpaceX by six months to make sure that
00:58:06
shrapnel doesn't fly through the desert
00:58:08
that's six months longer till humans can
00:58:12
perhaps inhabit the moon go to Mars do
00:58:15
all these extraordinary things this is
00:58:17
what I mean about the lack of tolerance
00:58:19
for risk we have to assume that there is
00:58:22
a cost in moving things forward there
00:58:24
has to be a cost in progress you don't
00:58:26
go fight a war and try and move the
00:58:28
front lines of a battlefield further
00:58:30
into the enemy territory and assume
00:58:32
you're going to have no loss and all of
00:58:34
human progress needs to be thought about
00:58:36
in a similar way we have to have some
00:58:38
degree of loss and some tolerance for
00:58:40
risk as we try and make progress with
00:58:42
our species and Technology always is
00:58:45
going to have setbacks it's always going
00:58:46
to have mistakes but if the net benefit
00:58:49
far outweighs those mistakes we have to
00:58:51
be willing to accept it and gets
00:58:53
everyone to kind of take a broader
00:58:54
perspective on what we're doing that
00:58:57
this isn't just about maintaining status
00:58:59
quo and not getting hurt this is about
00:59:01
the great benefits we get from moving
00:59:03
things forward and we've lost that in
00:59:05
such a profound way over the last 50
00:59:07
years in Western culture another great
00:59:10
example of this to add to your tiid is
00:59:13
challenge trials and these have been
00:59:15
banned for a long time and if you don't
00:59:17
know what a challenge trial is you
00:59:18
introduce something like let's say Co
00:59:20
into a person who has had a coid vaccine
00:59:24
and yeah there assuming some risk in
00:59:25
doing this but if it was a young person
00:59:27
as we saw it probably wouldn't be that
00:59:28
much risk and there are people who would
00:59:29
do it and there this whole concept of
00:59:32
challenge trials could reduce in the
00:59:34
long term a massive amount of debts but
00:59:36
it's not allowed because of Ethics
00:59:39
issues what are your thoughts on that
00:59:40
freeberg challenge trials I mean it's
00:59:43
look I there's so many examples we could
00:59:45
just keep going through this from energy
00:59:47
markets and nuclear technology to
00:59:49
biotechnology to space technology to
00:59:52
I've lived it I mean like GMO technology
00:59:54
and bioengineering in Food Systems
00:59:57
there's a fear and a concern and like
00:59:58
Rob Henderson said at our Summit I've
01:00:00
always viewed those to be luxury beliefs
01:00:03
that this idea that I don't want to have
01:00:05
my precious things changed when the
01:00:07
benefit really acrs mostly to the
01:00:09
poorest people in the world the people
01:00:11
exp why that is by the way because
01:00:13
that's an important point that people
01:00:14
don't realize when when you make things
01:00:17
more productive whether it's a acre of
01:00:19
land to make more food or a unit of
01:00:22
energy and the cost comes down per unit
01:00:23
of energy those of us who already have a
01:00:26
lot of stuff and have all of our basic
01:00:28
needs met we have housing we have
01:00:29
shelter we have food we have energy we
01:00:31
can afford it we live in a great
01:00:32
environment we live in a place that we
01:00:34
can do whatever the heck we want anytime
01:00:35
we want we don't care if the price goes
01:00:38
up by 30% I'm happy to go down to Whole
01:00:40
Foods and feel good to plop down an
01:00:42
extra 50% to buy an organic banana
01:00:44
someone who only makes $88,000 a year
01:00:48
cares very deeply about that cost Delta
01:00:51
they need to see the cost of food go
01:00:53
down the cost of energy go down the cost
01:00:55
of medicine go down the Improvement
01:00:58
that's driven by technology and has been
01:01:00
for 10,000 years mostly ACC cruise to
01:01:02
the poorest people in society first and
01:01:05
that's the problem and so we all who are
01:01:07
in charge those of us who are rich who
01:01:09
are Elite who have power who have
01:01:11
control who have influence who run the
01:01:13
government we all get to raise
01:01:15
our hand and say I don't want to take
01:01:16
any more risk because one person died
01:01:18
meanwhile a million people are starving
01:01:20
to death over the next three months and
01:01:22
you can make that same story and you can
01:01:24
connect those dots in every area of
01:01:27
technology that humans are have lost
01:01:29
their risk tolerance for in the wealthy
01:01:32
industrialized West and we are largely I
01:01:35
think not just it hurting ourselves
01:01:37
because of the economic cost and all the
01:01:38
other stuff that's going on that we're
01:01:40
now seeing as very apparent but we're
01:01:42
also limiting the intelligence and the
01:01:45
energy to make technology and progress
01:01:47
it that could benefit the whole world
01:01:49
we're limiting its ability to diffuse
01:01:52
and I think it's it's really profoundly
01:01:55
sad and I I hope that we one day look
01:01:57
back at this era as almost like audo
01:02:00
Dark Ages and we wake the up somay and
01:02:03
recognize that we need to take some
01:02:04
degree of risk and have for making
01:02:06
progress all right
01:02:10
listen I got a little passionate about
01:02:12
the whole anti-tech stuff hey we like it
01:02:14
we like it and and listen 35 people died
01:02:17
building the Golden Gate Bridge right
01:02:18
like people wanted to see that progress
01:02:20
people took risk that's it no risk no
01:02:23
reward to that point I think it took two
01:02:25
years to create the Bay Bridge and 17
01:02:27
years to do the repair to it I mean
01:02:29
that's how crazy things have gotten $2
01:02:31
billion to two billion dollars to build
01:02:33
those suicide Nets on the side of the
01:02:34
Golden Gate Bridge and some fraction of
01:02:36
that to build the whole fraking
01:02:37
Bridge even on a dollar adjusted basis
01:02:39
it's ridiculous it was five it's
01:02:41
interesting you say that 550 million to
01:02:43
build the bridge in US Dollars and then
01:02:45
yeah it was the same amount to build the
01:02:47
Nets so cast a question about the cruise
01:02:50
thing so do you believe that Cru will
01:02:53
have a good solution to self-driving I'm
01:02:55
just like a little bit skeptical are are
01:02:57
they owned by GM now yeah but didn't
01:03:00
they raise money from SoftBank isn't
01:03:02
there some like independent funding as
01:03:03
well that happened I thought it was sold
01:03:05
to GM I'm just like it was part of I
01:03:07
think it was sold to GM and then they
01:03:08
set it up as a sub and they like like
01:03:10
alphabet did with wh alphabet's raised
01:03:12
five billion in outside money into wh
01:03:14
and I think that Cruz or GM tried to do
01:03:16
the same thing where they've got
01:03:17
SoftBank and a bunch of institutional
01:03:19
investors in Cruz majority PR sure
01:03:22
that's right but it was spun out cuz
01:03:25
the ability to bankroll it it's obvious
01:03:27
that these are getting there the
01:03:28
question is is I think it's more like 10
01:03:30
years before this is fully deployed also
01:03:31
you have to build all the cars if Elon
01:03:35
does get out this Robo taxi vehicle for
01:03:37
25k which he seems like is well on the
01:03:39
way with the model 3 to getting to this
01:03:42
was an early mockup from Walter
01:03:43
isaacson's
01:03:45
book which looks pretty sharp and it
01:03:47
doesn't have it's like a two- seat car
01:03:49
so these things zippering around San
01:03:52
Francisco Etc at a reasonable speed
01:03:54
speed 25 35
01:03:56
mph I think he's pretty close to having
01:03:58
this I
01:03:59
use the self-driving beta full
01:04:02
self-driving FSD I use it all the time I
01:04:05
used to only use it on highways now I
01:04:07
use it on side roads I disengage it when
01:04:11
it's on roads that are not clearly
01:04:13
marked you know have you guys taken Cru
01:04:16
or AO Road I haven't taken either I got
01:04:18
invited to the beta though for Cru you
01:04:20
guys want check
01:04:22
out personally I would not trust uh The
01:04:25
Cruise ride I don't believe they were
01:04:26
responsible for this accident as it
01:04:28
turns out but I'm just skeptical that
01:04:31
some of these initiatives are going to
01:04:33
pan out I think Tesla's getting why are
01:04:35
you skeptical yeah I think it's a hard
01:04:37
problem to solve and I'm
01:04:40
just dubious about GM's ability to
01:04:44
develop Tech at this level of
01:04:46
sophistication even Tesla will get there
01:04:49
I think Tesla's already there well if an
01:04:51
autonomous Tesla drove up and picked you
01:04:52
up would you do that would you take a
01:04:53
ride in that I mean not today but I mean
01:04:56
when they get there which I don't think
01:04:58
it'll be 10 years I mean it seems like
01:05:00
Tesla's just way ahead of everybody else
01:05:01
Tim what do you think where do you think
01:05:02
the tech is I think this is a an
01:05:04
inference problem for Tesla and it's a
01:05:06
learning problem for everybody else so I
01:05:09
think in order to build level five
01:05:11
autonomy you have to have good reasoning
01:05:13
and I think in order to have good
01:05:14
reasoning you just need to have enough
01:05:16
training data where you literally see
01:05:18
every potential branch and node in a
01:05:21
decision tree and so it's one thing to
01:05:23
be able to scan a light know that it's
01:05:25
green and then go forward but when you
01:05:27
multiply that by every intersection
01:05:29
every light in every city it's a massive
01:05:32
massive learning problem so the thing
01:05:34
that GM and Crews don't have in my
01:05:36
opinion is a path to acquire enough data
01:05:39
to be credible could they solve a
01:05:41
limited set of streets in San Francisco
01:05:43
yeah yes and so if you have the
01:05:48
city sort of block off certain parts of
01:05:50
the neighborhoods and say no more human
01:05:53
driven vehicles in these sections only
01:05:56
these three or four licensed providers
01:05:59
can be inside of it I think that Cru and
01:06:02
weo could work but if you're going to
01:06:05
live in a world where there's autonomy
01:06:07
meaning like humans can drive wherever
01:06:08
they want I think Tesla is the only one
01:06:10
because I think they've Acquired and
01:06:12
they are acquiring so much training data
01:06:14
that for them they're fine-tuning
01:06:17
reasoning and it's exactly what Jason
01:06:19
just described Jason is a perfect
01:06:21
example of a consumer now who has a
01:06:24
adopted it call it 70% of his use cases
01:06:28
and is incrementally kind of like
01:06:29
getting towards 90% or
01:06:32
95% and I think that that's impressive I
01:06:34
would agree with Jason I use
01:06:36
FSD 100% on the highways and depending
01:06:40
on where I'm going so like this weekend
01:06:42
when I when I came to David your house
01:06:43
Sax's house full FSD the whole way yeah
01:06:47
two 101 it's bulletproof bulletproof and
01:06:50
then in the city yeah and navigating to
01:06:53
get into into David's house it I thought
01:06:55
it was it was Pitch Perfect and there
01:06:57
was one or twice where I'm actually the
01:07:00
person that's panicking and disengaging
01:07:02
FSD like intersections right left turns
01:07:05
and also just on the highway like I get
01:07:06
a little skittish at times if it goes if
01:07:08
it speeds up or whatever my point is
01:07:11
Tesla is so close to it so I I do trust
01:07:14
that they'll have a credible solution in
01:07:16
the next four or five years and these
01:07:18
other companies I think that they need
01:07:21
to have a solution for training and I
01:07:23
don't see it yeah the point is there's
01:07:25
over a million cars recording because
01:07:28
when you buy a Tesla you turn on
01:07:31
self-driving it's in every car and so
01:07:33
every car is recording data all the time
01:07:36
as opposed to GM GM doesn't take the
01:07:37
time to put the $10,000 $20,000 package
01:07:40
half a million new sensor collecting
01:07:42
millions of miles a quarter a quarter
01:07:45
being added to the network exactly what
01:07:46
Tesla did years and years ago is even
01:07:48
before self-driving was a thing they put
01:07:51
all the cameras in the cars to collect
01:07:53
the data and you're right GM doesn't do
01:07:54
that if GM did that to their legacy gas
01:07:57
cars and then funneled that into cruise
01:08:00
I think they would have a decent shot
01:08:01
but they are not doing that here's a map
01:08:04
of weo um in and I brought this up
01:08:07
because you know I think there's two
01:08:09
different strategies going on here
01:08:11
Tesla's going for the whole mcgilla they
01:08:13
want to be able to do dirt roads you've
01:08:14
never been on weo and Cruz are working
01:08:17
from constrained areas that they can
01:08:19
perfect and Phoenix is the perfect area
01:08:21
because that's a grid based system very
01:08:24
wide highways and it was planned and so
01:08:27
if you have a planned Community you know
01:08:28
this not like a city in Italy or France
01:08:32
where it's like the the roads have been
01:08:34
there for 800 years when you have some
01:08:36
modern city where it's a grid based
01:08:38
system Austin falls into this as well
01:08:40
for a large portion of Austin it's going
01:08:42
to be fairly easy to do those and so
01:08:45
that's what we'll see my prediction is
01:08:46
we'll see this also it's very flat
01:08:48
obviously no Hills and also weather so
01:08:51
you know the Northeast will be the last
01:08:52
place when you go to Boston or you know
01:08:55
you're in uh other places that don't
01:08:56
have a grid based system and you have
01:08:58
ice and snow this stuff is 10 plus years
01:09:01
out but in a dry place with consistent
01:09:03
weather like California Phoenix Etc it's
01:09:06
it's it's it's now right it's now I
01:09:09
think okay in uh Bill gurley's
01:09:12
regulatory capture
01:09:13
Corner we have an interesting story
01:09:16
about jsx if you don't know jet Suite X
01:09:19
that's what the jsx stands for this is
01:09:21
an airline that offers hopon public
01:09:23
public charter flights out of fbos uh
01:09:27
tiny airports usually reserved for
01:09:28
private jets and they give passengers
01:09:30
the private jet experience for the cost
01:09:33
of roughly a first class ticket at major
01:09:35
airlines maybe double the cost of a
01:09:37
coach ticket 700 bucks one way from
01:09:41
Westchester to Miami $1,400 round trip
01:09:43
not a bad deal by comparison United on
01:09:46
the same day or between 5 and 800 for
01:09:49
first class from New York to Miami Jets
01:09:52
swex has 47 airplanes with 12200 crew
01:09:55
members let me cut in and give you my
01:09:57
anecdote on Saturday I took a jsx flight
01:10:00
from Vegas to Oakland what were you
01:10:03
doing in Vegas I went to the opening
01:10:05
night of the YouTube concert at the
01:10:07
sphere opening night at the sphere at
01:10:09
the was incredible yeah the sphere I
01:10:11
looked at the photos in the videos I
01:10:12
wasn't super impressed is it impressive
01:10:14
in person because it didn't come across
01:10:16
in the videos yeah it's incredible you
01:10:18
got to go see it I think it's the first
01:10:19
how so it's the first like live
01:10:22
experience that I think think you have
01:10:25
kind of live analog elements like a band
01:10:28
and this incredibly immersive digital
01:10:29
experience because it's a 36ft tall Dome
01:10:33
and the entirety of the interior of the
01:10:34
Dome is a digital screen so there were
01:10:37
these scenescapes that they created that
01:10:39
were like Dynamic video on these walls
01:10:41
that it's hard it I don't think the
01:10:43
videos do it justice like when you're
01:10:45
actually jce when you're in this room
01:10:47
during this shot right here and I was
01:10:49
kind of sitting Center I was also I went
01:10:50
down on the floor for looks like you're
01:10:51
in the desert or something it's like
01:10:53
you're there dude I mean it's it's
01:10:55
inexplicable it's more real than VR it's
01:10:58
like you're in this world and they even
01:11:01
did these amazing integrated scenes
01:11:03
where they had like helicopters flying
01:11:04
overhead and then they had spotlights
01:11:06
coming out of the ceiling while the
01:11:09
helicopters were flying in the video
01:11:10
above you they did like a hot air
01:11:12
balloon flying above you and they
01:11:13
dropped like a rope down so it was this
01:11:15
total integration of like physical and
01:11:18
virtual content and I think like you two
01:11:21
to be honest as great as the concert was
01:11:23
is almost like the most boring thing you
01:11:25
could probably do with that setup over
01:11:27
time you could probably integrate a lot
01:11:29
more things you could have giant sets
01:11:31
and giant scenes and people you know
01:11:33
doing stuff physically Star Wars movie
01:11:35
Star Wars in with in real life you could
01:11:38
have like um the the siege of Carthage
01:11:40
and you could have ships on the ground
01:11:42
and then you could see the battle scene
01:11:43
behind you and you'd be like in the
01:11:44
middle of it the whole thing was really
01:11:46
incredible sound I heard about the sound
01:11:49
hundreds of speakers so when I was down
01:11:50
on the floor I went right by the stage
01:11:52
on the floor
01:11:54
the some of the sound is actually
01:11:55
distorted down there and it's not that
01:11:57
good when you're in the seats that's set
01:11:59
back where the sound is really designed
01:12:00
hundreds of speakers like built into the
01:12:02
wall I heard each seat has sound is
01:12:03
amazing there's there's seat speakers
01:12:05
there but really it comes from the the
01:12:07
Dome and the Dome sound when you're
01:12:09
sitting in the seats is really like
01:12:10
immersive and incredible okay so you
01:12:12
took jet swe X back and I took jet X by
01:12:15
the way I will my prediction on the
01:12:17
sphere I think there'll be like dozens
01:12:18
of these things soon enough okay because
01:12:21
this can become like a new form of live
01:12:22
entertainment venu it's not just a stage
01:12:24
where someone stands on it plays music
01:12:26
it's a new model and more than musical
01:12:28
artists I think you'll see like new
01:12:29
kinds of Art and new kinds of things
01:12:31
happening on these in these things
01:12:33
anyway it's also video on the outside so
01:12:35
you can do advertisements or make it
01:12:36
look like a pumpkin or make it look like
01:12:38
a basketball I saw that and it'll get
01:12:39
cheaper and cheaper over time the first
01:12:41
one was what two two2 and a half billion
01:12:43
dollars they'll make smaller versions of
01:12:44
it it'll be a couple hundred million
01:12:45
it's almost like IMAX theaters they'll
01:12:46
roll them out all over so back to Jet s
01:12:48
x 240 bucks you drive up just like an
01:12:51
FBO like a private terminal drive up
01:12:54
walk in no security no lines no checkin
01:12:57
get on get off it's like flying a some
01:13:01
checkin so they know your name and stuff
01:13:02
like you walk up and they they uh you
01:13:05
give them the ticket and then they do a
01:13:07
gateside check-in they take your bag and
01:13:09
they put it off they take it under the
01:13:10
plane you save an hour on either a half
01:13:13
hour oh my god dude it's so hasslefree
01:13:15
it's ridiculous and like when my mom
01:13:16
comes to visit she takes it she loves it
01:13:20
but obviously there's got to be some
01:13:21
catch I don't really know these Rags but
01:13:23
this
01:13:24
I'll explain that now so they have 47
01:13:27
airplanes 12200 crew members American
01:13:29
and Southwest and several major Aviation
01:13:32
unions are accusing jsx of exploiting a
01:13:35
regulatory loophole that they can hire
01:13:38
pilots who are too old to fly for
01:13:39
commercial airlines and who don't have
01:13:41
the requisite 15 hour 1500 hours of
01:13:44
flying experience because they are a
01:13:46
smaller Airline Jets speedex says its
01:13:49
Captain's average over 8,000 flying
01:13:51
hours and first officer average over
01:13:53
3,000 flying hours so they're blowing
01:13:55
past the regulation so that's obviously
01:13:58
a red herring according to jetw site x
01:14:00
two huge US Airlines and their labor
01:14:02
unions want companies like jet sedex
01:14:05
small air carriers that actually care
01:14:07
about providing you with much needed
01:14:09
choice and high quality service to be
01:14:11
legislated out of existence it and by
01:14:14
the way jetsu deex has a couple of the
01:14:15
other airlines I think United as an
01:14:17
investor so the other airlines actually
01:14:19
want this there obviously is a
01:14:21
difference in security the one
01:14:23
difference is not how many hours the
01:14:25
pilots have obviously it's going through
01:14:28
TSA so the the ability to not go through
01:14:31
TSA is such a key part of this
01:14:32
experience and to not go through a big
01:14:34
terminal JetBlue and United support jsx
01:14:37
and I think they're exploring doing this
01:14:40
themselves so regulatory
01:14:42
capture at its best I guess I'll take
01:14:45
the unpopular side of this I think it's
01:14:46
easy to blame this regulatory capture
01:14:50
Boogeyman here okay I think jetu X seems
01:14:53
like an amazing service it has starlink
01:14:56
a bunch of my friends have taken it they
01:14:58
seem to enjoy it a
01:15:00
lot but here is
01:15:02
the the the clever Arbitrage that jet
01:15:05
Suite X is taking which is that they fly
01:15:09
under what's called part 135 of the FAA
01:15:12
and that is when you take a private
01:15:13
plane and you Charter it the airlines
01:15:15
fly under what's called part 121 and the
01:15:17
rules are very different if you're 121
01:15:19
versus part 135 and the biggest rule is
01:15:22
the TR of the pilots which is that there
01:15:25
are minimum hour requirements to be a
01:15:27
commercial airline pilot which is about,
01:15:30
1500 hours versus 250 hours for a part
01:15:33
135 Charter pilot so I think the
01:15:37
question is is that it's one thing where
01:15:39
you Charter a plane with two or three of
01:15:41
your friends that's a part 135 license
01:15:44
in a small plane but when you take a
01:15:46
large plane with nobody else you don't
01:15:49
know I think there's a pretty credible
01:15:52
argument that that's a commercial
01:15:53
Airline and I do think that it's
01:15:55
reasonable that if you're running a
01:15:56
commercial airline through a
01:15:59
loophole at some point if you get big
01:16:01
enough that loophole is going to be obv
01:16:03
obvious enough that people will ask it
01:16:04
to be closed I think what you want to
01:16:07
have is this loophole closed or you
01:16:10
decide that part 135 where there are so
01:16:13
many people the pilots should be at a
01:16:16
certain Flight Training standard and to
01:16:18
jetu X's uh defense they reported their
01:16:21
Captain's average over 8,000 flying
01:16:24
hours so that is a magnitude more 5x
01:16:27
more than five times the rules and first
01:16:30
office average over 3,000 so why not
01:16:32
just up that number of hours to 500 or a
01:16:34
thousand yeah or just make it make
01:16:35
everybody, 1500 or Jason to your point
01:16:37
just like say go to the FAA and say look
01:16:39
we're going to continue to fly part 135
01:16:41
but here are the exact we promise to
01:16:42
never hire a pilot that is not under
01:16:45
this 1500 hour threshold etc etc there's
01:16:48
all kinds of ways to go around it but I
01:16:50
do think it's important to acknowledge
01:16:51
that they're basically running a United
01:16:54
yes but they're pretending that it's a
01:16:55
private plane and I think United yeah
01:16:57
it's a mini United yeah somewhere
01:16:58
between the two no because United runs
01:17:00
those Regional legs as well in in in
01:17:04
equivalent Siz planes so I do think it
01:17:06
should exist I just think that it should
01:17:08
exist on a relatively Level Playing
01:17:10
Field I don't want somebody else to use
01:17:12
a loophole so I would not want them to
01:17:14
use a loophole either part 135 exists
01:17:16
I'm actually in agreement with you to
01:17:17
take a private plane and Charter it not
01:17:19
to run an airline all right everybody
01:17:21
this has been another amazing episode of
01:17:23
the Allin podcast thank you to from his
01:17:26
sphere of influence David freeberg the
01:17:28
Sultan of Science and the Rainman
01:17:31
himself hot water burn baby uh David
01:17:34
saaks and the dictator himself Jamal
01:17:38
poly love you boys I am the world's
01:17:42
greatest moderator and we'll see you
01:17:43
next time byebye
01:17:46
byebye let your winners
01:17:49
ride Rainman
01:17:52
David
01:17:54
and instead we open source it to the
01:17:56
fans and they've just gone crazy with it
01:17:58
love you queen of
01:18:00
[Music]
01:18:06
K
01:18:09
besties that's my dog taking your
01:18:14
driveway oh man
01:18:16
myit we should all just get a room and
01:18:19
just have one big huge orgy cuz they're
01:18:20
all this useless it's like this like
01:18:22
sexual mention that they just need to
01:18:24
[Music]
01:18:30
release we need to get merch
01:18:35
[Music]
01:18:44
our
