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free BG's channeling Tim Walls over there I know wow he's as exciting as Tim Walls got your flannel on do you know
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what Adventure capitalist is freeberg oh he's Shilling super gut well as of last
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week when jcal decided to turn all in into a commercial I was actually gonna do a super gut background we're
00:00:16
launching super gut Nationwide in Target this week any Target in the United States you can go into and pick up super
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gut you can buy the glp1 booster you can buy the Prebiotic Shake I have that actually is that the chocolate or do you
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have the chocolate I mean I like this one chocolate Okay mocha is good too all right let's get start thanks for the
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support J I appreciate of course of course of course we're cutting all this out no way this is why I do this next
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time plug a company I have a steak in let your winners [Music] ride David and instead we open sources to the
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fans and they've just gone crazy with it love you Queen also Allin election Night Live
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stream is coming November 5th you can watch live saaks will be hosting do we're doing it you're hosting it your
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team said you're doing it and so you'll either get to see are you not go to marago sex well if things continue to
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look good for Trump I I might go to Mar Lago I might yeah you're May let's not commit sex you're maybe if you go to Mar
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you're excus I can live for beaz I'll go to Maro that would be fun yeah if it looks good I'll go so that's
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um of course I'm invited I talk to Jared things look as good as they do right now
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then I think I'm gonna have to go to Mar think we should all be in Maro it's going to be a unique experience oh my
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God can you imagine being in Mara Lago and he loses oh my God that's why I unless s is in the bag it's got to be
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too big to rig if it's too big to rig I'm going to Mar Lo too big to rig do you guys think poly Market is like
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why do you think it's different from the polls are we talking about this today poly Market's showing like
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6040 or 6535 now right yeah because they're measuring different things I've explained this before poly Market is
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people betting on the outcome so 58% think Trump's going to win whereas the polls in a particular State show the
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percentage of how each person's going to vote so if for sure you knew the election was 5149
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the betting markets would swing to 100 let me ask you this so Nate Silver's model which takes the poll from each
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state and builds a a kind of a a Monte Carlo of you know super pole like a super model for the whole country why is
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his estimate 5050 right now while the poly Market is betting at 6040 it's possible he's laggy in his
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estimates got it on the betting markets the betting markets seem to uh go based on momentum so it like it
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indicates the swing and momentum and then the do things are G how do you think they're gonna change after the
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interviews the last couple days Trump on blumberg and kamla on Fox do you think those are gonna change anything I don't
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think so I think it's all baked in now well Trump over the past few weeks seems to have had Aur owing to the fact that
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kamla's interviews generally don't go well so I think she started off a little behind started doing interviews to catch
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up and now she's a lot behind I don't think the BR bear interview is going to help her
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well let me ask you this I so my my observation as I don't know I'm not like a super political person or um whatever
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a party oriented person I looked at the uh a lot of the media on both sides and it seems like everyone on the left says
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KLA did an amazing job on Fox she defended herself she showed her skills and her competency and then everyone on
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the right's like she embarrassed herself she fell apart and then the same thing happened with the Trump interview on
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Bloomberg people are like on the left they say look at how he couldn't handle the interviewer and he fell apart and
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all his lies were exposed and everyone on right like look at him you got a standing ovation it's almost like
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everyone's just kind of like self asserting their their beliefs that they already hold when they judge these
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people on these interview shows at this point is it is it already baked at this point like is anyone actually going to
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change their view based on these interviews happening well the question is what appeals to that small sliver of
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Independence yeah the question I would ask back to you is if the Brett Bear interview was going so well for KLA why
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was her staff on the side lines waving to try and end the interview that apparently they had like four people you
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waving and trying to cut the interview who said who said that was the case he did said it so yeah it was like in Rocky
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four when Apollo Creed's corner is like yelling throw in the damn throw in the damn tow they couldn't wait to get off
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the stage after 26 minutes I just think that if it was going thatly allegedly yeah I don't think BR bear is going to
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lie about that I don't know why he would lie about that why would why would they
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get her off the stage after 26 minutes it was going so great I'm not saying it went as horrible as some of the
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partisans on the other side are saying but I don't think it went that great do you give her any credit for going into
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the lion Den like she did well I I think that she went she did the interview precisely to get the talking point that
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she does adversarial interviews because that talking point was hurting them and so you saw like all of her fans and the
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media were saying well see she can walk into the lion's den but again she did the shortest interview possible I don't
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think she answered the questions directly I think she filibustered a lot she deflected a lot uh I don't think she
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was particularly persuasive I don't think she convinced anybody so I think that what you saw there was somebody who
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just wanted to get it over with as quickly as possible to check the box on okay does adversarial interviews Trump
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on the other hand he he actually likes doing these things the Bloomberg there's no filibustering there right well no
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he's Chris Buster come on all anot he can do do the weave he can do the anecdotes but yeah he's also very good
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at coming back on the interviewer when they get adversarial and the audience was with him they gave him a standing
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ovation he went for 64 minutes compared to her 26 I just think there's no comparison I think Trump is someone who
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relishes walking into the lion's den and doing those interviews I think Harris did it because she felt like she had
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what do you think Jam you see it or no you have any opinion I watched the whole interview it was clear in in the
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interview he mentioned the fact that he was being waved off and then he said it after the fact as well that's not
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alleged I think that that did happen I would say two things I thought that she was
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composed and she maintained her cool so I think from a stylistic perspective I thought that she did well from a
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substance perspective it was pretty lacking because if you actually listened to the answers there there was just a
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ton of non answers and they were to very basic questions that I think a lot of people even if you're not a swing voter
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I think would probably want to know the answer to meaning did she have any regrets about
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what's happened in the last three and a half years did she have any regrets about what she's done on the
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border has she not noticed that Biden was wavering before he was hot swwa I think that you could have predicted that
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these questions were going to come so I think I was surprised that there wasn't a crisp answer that they had practiced
00:07:37
for that the second thing I'll say is then David is right everybody then gets very tribal in how they interpret it I
00:07:44
think I saw one tweet from Elon about how all of the newspapers characterized her interview with Brett beay as quote
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unquote testy and it was sort of like that was the way that the mainstream media framed it I suspect if somebody
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looked at how Trump's interview with Bloomberg was analyzed it probably had some
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similar verbage that was repeated there as well so I think you are right Jason that the mainstream media can't be
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trusted to tell the truth I would just encourage people to watch it I think like I said stylistically I think she
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did well and remain composed substantively I think it was non-existent yeah it would have been
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nice to have another debate between these two she still really explain how she's different than Joe Biden other
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than the fact that he's a white male and she's a woman of color so beyond the sort of The Superficial differences she
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can't explain on a policy level what she would do differently she's had so many opportunities to say that they asked her
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on The View they asked her on Stephen Co bear Brett Bear asked her in his way and
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she still can't explain what she would do differently and I think that is the fundamental problem she has in her
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campaign is voters still don't know who she is or what she would do yeah what did you think of uh JD van
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saying he wouldn't uh have certified the election they seem to be going after him
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on that over and over again sex you're the only person talking about that no no literally every interview
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they've been chasing him down the hall asking him I'm not the only person I may have started it but what do you think of
00:09:08
him saying he wouldn't have CER that is kind of like when he's in a combative reporting moment that is the question he
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gets a lot that's not that's not the interview I saw I saw him the interview he just did with Martha Raditz was she
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was saying that Trump was the question I asked you sax was I asked you Saks about
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fix you're the only one who's fixated no no journal what do you think no one who
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is persuadable who doesn't have TDS cares about that topic anymore what do you think freeberg about him saying he
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wouldn't certify January 6 concern it's not it's not what they're asking JD if you want to talk about interviews that
00:09:44
JD Vance has done talk about the one that's actually going viral right now and that was the interview he did with
00:09:49
Martha Raditz where she starts saying that you know we've only had a few of these apartment buildings taken over by
00:09:54
Foreign gangs and he's like do you realize what you're saying you know there's no comeback from that he
00:10:00
destroyed her it was very compelling what he did it and every interview he does is like that yeah I mean she was
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basically saying that she spoke to what was it the city manager and she's like he said only a handful of buildings have
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been taken over and JD Vance was like what do you mean like only a handful of buildings like isn't that anything more
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than zero like too much or anything more than one is obviously a problem like it
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was just such an obvious rebuttal to the the narrative that they're kind of overexaggerating a particular issue I
00:10:32
have no data on this but he was very compelling in that uh response I thought it was pretty strong but I will say like
00:10:38
generally neither candidate seems to be introducing a new message or seems to be
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introducing new content they're just kind of standing up you know kind of repeating things that they've said
00:10:50
showing that they can handle and manage different kind of combative reporting tactics and that's kind of what's going
00:10:56
on and everyone seems to have made up their mind I don't I see a lot of people on both sides
00:10:59
say again this side this person did great my person did great against this combative reporter and the other person
00:11:06
did poorly against their combative reporter and everyone's kind of biased in their view I it just feels like this
00:11:11
election's baked and we should just go to the polls and be done yeah what you think free though but there there's no
00:11:16
October surprise coming out right saak Chim J three weeks yeah can happen but there hasn't been anything right like
00:11:22
that's kind of the shocking moment yet this month but freeberg the question I was going to
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ask you is since you're not like hosting Trump you know fundraisers Do you think what did you
00:11:35
think when JD Vance said he didn't think that Trump lost the 2020 election does that concern you at
00:11:43
all um there's no there's no way to answer this um with with the kind of clean framing I think you're looking for
00:11:52
what what I saw from JD is that he wants the reporter and the people that he's talking to and I hear this from him yeah
00:11:58
to zoom out out a little bit and recognize that there are significant control and uh control systems and
00:12:06
biases that he believes and others believe are strongly affecting the election process and as a result the
00:12:12
election outcome and I think that that message isn't uh is lost because people want him to say Trump lost the election
00:12:20
you're not admitting it you're bad but those people also aren't hearing the point that he's making which is that
00:12:27
there are biases and we heard these biases by the way with Democrats in Prior elections as well where they
00:12:34
highlighted that they belied that there were biases with respect to misinformation being Amplified on social
00:12:39
media and then the next election cycle they were able to step in and influence what was being changed on those social
00:12:44
media platforms and so there's this big kind of War media war going on through social media platforms and I think that
00:12:52
that's what both sides are highlighting is their big concern and now there's this other big concern about is there
00:12:59
appropriate voter verification that the people who are voting and it's it's a it's a question to ask that shouldn't be
00:13:05
dismissed it is a good question to ask great as a as a person who doesn't have a like a a strong bias for a political
00:13:12
party here I feel like I want to hear answers to those questions like you know what is the structure of how the the way
00:13:19
that most people are getting their media today which is through social media platforms what is the mechanism for
00:13:24
censorship what is the mechanism for filtering for moderation and be public and about it and then separately what
00:13:31
are the mechanisms foring who gets to vote and how they get to vot I think those are
00:13:36
both good things to ask I would just like to take a step back and say that that was one of the most incredible
00:13:41
answers I've ever heard freeberg unfortunately it may not land for the reductive masses but it was
00:13:51
exceptionally powerful and thoughtful thank you yeah I'm here for Chim I'm here for you well I and the I mean
00:13:59
independent of who wins we need to get this uh rules of Elections really tight starting next year I think make it a
00:14:07
Federal holiday require people to have ID that doesn't seem like such a big deal I
00:14:12
don't know saxs what else should happen federal holiday right now you've got Biden's doj is literally suing the state
00:14:19
of Virginia which is required by Virginia law to clean the voter roles of illegal immigrants and they've been
00:14:27
doing that and Biden doj has Sue to stop that in California like you said we now
00:14:32
have a new law signed by Gavin Nome to make it illegal to ask for voter ID so Democrats seem to be undermining the
00:14:39
Integrity of Elections not fortifying it so when you ask you know why do Republicans distrust elections maybe it
00:14:46
has something to do with the way that Democrats are acting but I agree with you I think that cleaning up the voter
00:14:53
roles having a minimum standard for voter verific is something that I think should be done
00:15:03
according to the Constitution the states basically run their own elections but it
00:15:06
doesn't make sense to me that in a onep Party Machine politics state where basically one party controls the state
00:15:14
that they could set up a system that effectively entrenches their power forever in federal elections it just
00:15:21
seems to me that the federal government has a compelling interest that must be constitutional in ensuring a minimum
00:15:29
standard of honesty in federal elections so I think it would be great to do something about this next year I think
00:15:35
that if you want people to stop questioning elections or engaging in election denial you need to make the
00:15:41
elections above reproach so let's do that so anyway Heritage Foundation uh which is obviously right leaning has a
00:15:49
bunch of election fraud cases they've been documenting and they basically cannot come up with like
00:15:56
um actual evidence that is changing any election results but we should make it a br reproach I agree all
00:16:06
right our boy Elon had a a big week Tesla inil two new Concepts at its we robot event and Elon Elon caught a 23
00:16:15
story rocket the Starship here's the robo taxi and the robo bus both of them look really awesome and uh he caught one
00:16:23
of the I think this is the fifth Starship or the fourth launch fifth off the fth
00:16:30
right look at this unbelievable it's like Chopsticks catching isues are with Elon and his
00:16:38
politics just to appreciate and we can talk about why this is so important in this segment but technically the
00:16:45
achievement of this like Skyscraper falling out of the sky and perfectly aligning itself to go into that
00:16:50
Chopstick catching device it is an absolute Marvel of human Ingenuity I mean just and the work and the effort
00:16:58
that people put into this over you know several decades it's just such an incredible feat look at this thing I
00:17:04
don't know if you guys were as emotionally moved by this as I was I thought it was incredible was incredible
00:17:07
I think I probably watched this a hundred times totally from every angle every angle and so the reason this is so
00:17:14
important is because these things cost a lot of money and when they land here you
00:17:19
can clean them up and I guess his goal is to have them take off again after he fills them with propellant an hour later
00:17:26
freeberg so on a science basis this is extraordinary what uh you know if this works and you start more specific you
00:17:34
don't want it to have feet a it's heavy and then B you have to lift them up in a way that just
00:17:42
complicates the entire refueling and cycle time process so by catching it you put it right back into place and just go
00:17:48
again unbelievable unbeliev you just catch it and go again I can kind of walk through these numbers so obviously the
00:17:55
big objective over time is how cheap can you get it to put material into space we
00:18:03
need a lot of material to go into space if we're going to do things in space particularly if we're going to go build
00:18:09
a colony on Mars and so this shows you over time the cost per kilogram which is the key metric in this industry to
00:18:16
launch material into low earth orbit and you can see here how SpaceX has dramatically
00:18:24
reduced the cost I remember when the small sat era began in the 2010 you guys remember all these startups that were
00:18:30
starting to build like little small STS and put them up to do imaging and coms and stuff when this took off it was
00:18:37
about 10,000 bucks a kilogram to put a small set into space or to put material into space and then SpaceX has dropped
00:18:44
the cost to the point that it's now close to $1,000 a kilogram so a 10x reduction in cost in just the last
00:18:50
decade or so and that's why SpaceX just dominates the the launch market but elon's always said that $1,000 dollar a
00:18:57
kilogram is too high but his objective has been to get the cost down to 10 bucks a kilogram because
00:19:03
at 10 bucks a kilogram you could launch what some people estimate is needed to get to Mars which is about half a
00:19:09
million tons of material and people to set up a colony on Mars and it actually becomes feasible to get you know half a
00:19:17
million tons of material at at 10 bucks a kilogram so if you look at this new starship and Starship heavy booster it's
00:19:26
about 150 200 ton payload the booster holds you know 3,400 tons of propellant and uh the cost of that
00:19:35
propellant is pretty low you know it's uh it's only about a million dollars in fuel so then if you can get the cost of
00:19:42
the booster and the Starship down enough and you can reuse it enough and you amortize the cost of making that device
00:19:50
over the the lifetime of of the device the cost per launch comes down and that's what brings the cost per kilogram
00:19:55
down so the booster there's a group called payload and they do estimates on this so I won't speak out of turn in
00:20:00
terms of like having inside knowledge but the payload has estimated that Starship and the booster cost about 90
00:20:07
million bucks today and they think that they have a path to getting it down to 35 million so if you can reuse that
00:20:12
thing 10 times that's a $35 million cost per launch plus a million for fuel you could easily see and this thing can
00:20:19
launch 200 tons that's how you start to get to 10 bucks a kilogram over the next
00:20:24
couple of years but it was critical to be able to reuse that heavy booster and that's why Elon just demonstrated it's
00:20:29
we can actually catch that heavy booster refuel it and launch it an hour later and if you can do that over and over
00:20:36
again you're spending 10 bucks a kilogram to put material into space you can get fuel into space and then get
00:20:42
those Starships to fly off to Mars and deliver all this material including setting up a base that would allow you
00:20:48
to actually make more fuel on Mars because everything we need to make fuel is on Mars so it's the beginning of the
00:20:54
next series of really important Milestones that'll hopefully get Humanity onto Mars it was just so
00:20:59
amazing to see it come together the economics are legit I mean this is like a THX reduction in cost it's incredible
00:21:06
yeah it's going to be amazing and they're going to do some I guess new stuff with Starling some even lower
00:21:12
Earth orbit satellites that go even faster and have less latency so that's going to be super exciting starlink
00:21:18
apparently I mean I know everyone here is a sh shareholder in SpaceX but starlinks running at 4 million Subs
00:21:23
right now that's like 100 bucks a month 4 million subs and if you do the math I mean how many people have isps that are
00:21:32
slower than starlink right how many people have cell phone providers that they're paying roughly the same amount
00:21:37
that aren't as good as starlink if we can get satellite to phone and you can get starlink more broadly available this
00:21:44
could be 100 million subscriber business I mean this could be absolutely one of biggest businesses on the on the on the
00:21:49
earth it could be the largest subscription business in the history of humanity I think the largest ones right
00:21:55
now are like Netflix you know 250 Disney Plus 150 Verizon 100 million so yeah it's
00:22:02
could be hundreds of millions of subscribers it could even could be the first 500 million subscriber product in
00:22:07
the we could look back one day and be like why did we run all this copper wire everywhere like we don't need it yeah
00:22:13
obviously crazy especially if it can get it be like crazy that we were like ever
00:22:18
I mean the whole nutty thing about this past week it's like we could look back one day and be like why did we ever
00:22:21
drive cars and why do we ever have copper wire laid all over the Earth to like move internet signals around you
00:22:26
know this uh this efficiency game that's going to be realized over the next decade is and just incredible just
00:22:33
incredible Cham any thoughts on the robo van or the Cyber cab the model 2 I guess some
00:22:40
people are calling it but it's you know the Cyber cab specifically not calling it number two and doesn't have a
00:22:46
steering wheel or pedals I would have bought two of those immediately if it had a steering wheel and pedals I want
00:22:52
to drive it yeah looks like the hybrid of like a model Y and the Cyber truck so I kind of really love the Aesthetics of
00:22:58
it so beautiful yeah you like it my my my reaction was actually I don't know just
00:23:07
seeing these releases now over 10 or 15 years plus of knowing him nothing it's it's I guess it's like not
00:23:17
that surprising maybe it's it's weird to say like I just expect him and his teams
00:23:22
to figure it out like they're just all so good it's and the thing to remember it's not just him that's incredible but
00:23:28
he attracts a kind of Technical and operational Wonder kind people for sure and that's just that's just a really
00:23:37
special thing so I had had that reaction which was I was really proud and happy for them for the
00:23:45
team yeah for sure for the team and for him these guys are like incredibly Fearless fail bigly right yeah if you're
00:23:52
gonna fail fail bigly yeah and then the other thing that I thought was crazy was
00:23:58
how many people were trying to dunk on him this weekend and that surprised CAU me off
00:24:05
guard because I think that they were personalizing a lot of anxiety that they are feeling through these companies
00:24:14
successes which didn't make much sense to me well In fairness he did hurt some people's feelings with posting of memes
00:24:20
so yeah I mean it's it makes no sense like the guy is like going to save 30,000 Road Debs a year in the United
00:24:27
States with driving and people are losing their minds over a couple of memes or who he's voting for for
00:24:32
president I don't think you have to worry about that you can just look at the products they speak for themselves
00:24:38
anything um sax any response uh on the uh on the Tesla front any thoughts on the the bus or Optimus I mean they're
00:24:46
both very exciting products I don't think I've got a lot to add yeah I love the bus freeberg I think that thing
00:24:52
could become like mobile homes R you know adus and you could just send them to can you can we buy them or no well no
00:25:02
not right now but I think that might be you know that that's going to be a kids in
00:25:07
one I need it for all my kids yeah well see if this was a platform like the Mercedes Sprinter vans have become that
00:25:14
you see a lot in Europe then you could buy an empty one of these it's got enough battery life to last a month and
00:25:21
then let's say you had your in-laws over and there was one that was set up as like a one-bedroom you could click on
00:25:27
Airbnb or you know Tesla BNB press a button and the thing could drive to your driveway you could rent it for a week
00:25:33
and then it could leave or let's say a thousand people or 10,000 people were displaced because of a hurricane
00:25:38
freeberg you could send a 100,000 of these to the parking lots at Walmart which typically does a good job and and
00:25:44
feeding people and getting them supplies after hurricanes since those are so ubiquitous you could put a 100 of these
00:25:49
in every parking lot and have a place for people who are fleeing uh natural disasters to stay so I thought that was
00:25:55
like the most compelling product of the whole thing for me was the possibility of a sled like a skiff that you could do
00:26:02
anything you want with would be really exciting for society so congratulations to the team and it's it's going to take
00:26:09
a while but I I I could see them having that Robo ta I think congrats to amid he
00:26:15
just got promoted I saw that yeah he's in charge of all AI I think he's in charge of all manufacturing and sales in
00:26:22
North American oh okay well there it is shout out to amid abar yeah I mean listen I have I have big news I just
00:26:30
bought my first Tesla oh you did did you go with a plaid Model S model S plaid yeah yeah I test drove it for two weeks
00:26:39
and sold itself and are you using the FSD I use FSD every day I used F and it was like really impressive so super
00:26:47
impressive I I've tried Tesla a couple times over the years and I never really never really worked for me the quality
00:26:52
just didn't feel like what I like given what I had before the carwise you were an Audi guy right but Audi guy yeah
00:27:00
yeah that's it's uh was a big milestone I really I thought the FSD was the selling and then the speed on the pla is
00:27:08
is just insane it's better than my RS7 like I um with all of my Teslas I put it in chill mode because when it's in that
00:27:15
plaid mode or whatever like coffee go but if you have passengers the kids in the back seat will get like literally
00:27:21
nauseous because it's too fast you got to be you got to be careful with the passengers there it's so fast it was
00:27:27
awesome awesome all right well there you have it Robo taxi star we didn't get to
00:27:32
it last week we almost put the show back a day or two just to do it in other news
00:27:37
Uber is exploring a bid to purchase Expedia breaking news this was dispelled as we got here on the show they said
00:27:44
this was like very preliminary thirdparty talks and that there's no serious talks going on about this
00:27:49
Financial Times reported that advisors were trying to look at if a deal structure would be possible between Uber
00:27:56
and Expedia speedia has got a $20 billion market cap they popped 8% on the news obviously Uber on the other hand
00:28:03
trading at 170 billion market cap or so that dropped 3% if you didn't know daro was the CEO
00:28:09
of Expedia from 2005 to 2017 he's still on the board and it looks like this was a trial
00:28:17
balloon you know Uber's two biggest businesses rides and Uber Eats but they also do freight and train bookings dar's
00:28:24
been pretty clear he wants to create a super app like you have in China or some other markets xed has got a lot of cool
00:28:33
products hotels.com orbits Tri velocity or uh and I think the most interesting one freeberg you and I were talking
00:28:40
about this is VRBO vacation rental by owner it was like Airbnb before Airbnb existed and if you look at this chart
00:28:49
since D left the D effect Expedia has gone exactly sideways the revenue has grown modestly what do you think of this
00:28:59
chamama I'll just go right to you with this one since you like to stupid stupid okay there you have it folks reason
00:29:07
number one it's stupid uh and reason number two it's stupid I mean this is a 20 billion market cap business you
00:29:13
probably have to pay a control premium of 50% so the question is if you were going to spend $30 billion today in the
00:29:22
public markets what would you spend it on and I think the most important lens that you have to use to answer that
00:29:28
question is what reinforces a mo that I have while also being inoculated from the risks of AI and I cannot think of a
00:29:41
more fragile business model than the UI layer on top of widely available data so
00:29:49
the problem that Expedia has is the same that booking and a bunch of these other
00:29:54
folks have which is that the principal heartbeat of the company flight information and other things are
00:30:00
licensed to them by Third parties and so what they are is a UI and a front door I think it's way too early in the
00:30:07
evolution of AI to know that that's safe and in fact I think a more reasonable assumption is that those things are
00:30:12
pretty fragile and part of what may explain the doldrums of the stock is that I think
00:30:18
people are anticipating a world where for example I don't know if you saw but perity launch something this week it's
00:30:24
just in test mode they whitelisted me into it but it's basically a checkout concept so you tell perplexity what you
00:30:33
would like it to buy and then it will go and complete the transaction for you so
00:30:39
in the example of flight bookings you could go directly to United because a perplexity will just show you all of the
00:30:46
flights they'll show you the exact prices and then it'll go and execute that for you with your payment method in
00:30:52
a world that looks like that where these companies have the money to pay for the
00:30:58
data feeds the existing v1.0 generation uis I think are in trouble so it would just be
00:31:06
a very bad Capital allocation decision now that's okay to get things wrong but not for $30 billion wrong you can
00:31:13
probably do it for couple hundred million dollars wrong or maybe even a billion dollars wrong because you can
00:31:18
absorb that as a 150 or $60 billion company but 30 billion is too big of a price to pay for that kind of risk I
00:31:25
would agree with you and there's other things they could buy like we ride or pony Ai and a bunch of these AI
00:31:31
companies that are doing self-driving so why not double down on that freeberg the
00:31:35
one thing you and I talked about was kind of VRBO which is a very cool Marketplace and that feels directly in
00:31:41
the Uber Kill Zone what do you think about them just maybe carving out and buying vbo and having an
00:31:47
Airbnb uh why don't they just buy whmo why don't they just go to Google and give them 30 billion doar of uber stock
00:31:53
and just carve in whmo isn't that a better idea I think that's what's going to happen I've been hearing Rumblings of
00:31:58
that so so I think that Dara knows Expedia better than anyone he ran the business for what a decade or or so yep
00:32:08
and so he knows how that business operates and so if he's looking at this thing and the stock price has been flat
00:32:15
roughly since he left in 2017 if you look at the underlying financial performance you could kind of
00:32:21
start to construct a rationale for buying Expedia this cheap and it would be very acreative to Uber even
00:32:28
if there are these big strategic risks on the horizon so just to give you some numbers on it all Uber has got about 150
00:32:35
million monthly active users Expedia has about 45 50 million customers a year that use the service and pay for stuff
00:32:45
so there's a real opportunity to think about the Uber customer base that's installed as being almost an opportunity
00:32:54
to Market to them Expedia services and cross sell so Expedia on an annualized basis is
00:33:01
spending about 8 billion a year in sales and marketing and about 720 million a year in GNA costs so and they're running
00:33:10
about three billion ebit right now run rate so if you cut about half the GNA in an acquisition because you don't need
00:33:16
all the people that overlap with Uber's people you know and you cut about 30% of
00:33:21
the sales and marketing dollars because you can cross sell into the Uber install
00:33:25
base you could see a scenario where you could increase expedia's IA by 75 to 100% maybe getting it as high as $6
00:33:34
billion and while expedia's market cap trades at two 20 billion this is off of you know obviously the recent news that
00:33:40
they might get acquired if you kind of assume a 40 50% price premium to the last 90-day average of the stock price
00:33:46
which is kind of typical or common for a deal like this they're probably paying 26 billion for the company and they got
00:33:52
about 4 billion in net cash so you're kind of paying about 22 billion Enterprise Value to buy Expedia so 22
00:33:59
billion of Enterprise Value and if you can bump the iata up to 6 billion a year that's a pretty low multiple I mean you
00:34:06
could kind of see yourself rationalizing this just from a financial basis that you're paying four times IA to buy this
00:34:12
thing and Dara knows this thing and he would have great command over what needs to be done over there and he would have
00:34:18
a great sense of what to change and what's gone wrong and there's a lot of interesting assets inside of Expedia vbo
00:34:26
is a great one that's been under monetized and underutilize I don't know if you've used the ux on vbo versus
00:34:31
Airbnb there's obviously some influence D could have with people that he knows well that could go in and fix that that
00:34:36
interface and make it a better service and even as AI starts to step in and hotels maybe integrate better with
00:34:43
agents and so on and they show up in a more ubiquitous way there's other things that Expedia does like build vacation
00:34:48
packages and travel packages that are high margin products that they sell that are a little bit different than what
00:34:53
you're used to with a just booking a flight booking flights makes no money for anyone
00:34:58
but vacation packages is where all the money's at and so theoretically Expedia could be smarter about how they build
00:35:04
vacation packages and personalize them for families and that's where they can make real margin like 20 30% margin so I
00:35:10
could see a story where this all starts to click for the board at Uber saying maybe it makes sense Dar knows what he's
00:35:16
talking about we could buy this thing for four times you know proa IA this could be hugely ACC accretive for us so
00:35:22
I think that's why this is happening why this conversation may be happening that
00:35:25
that's just me trying to understand I think it's a good steal man what the rationale might be could you just go
00:35:29
back and explain how would they drive up IU so much so they're spending about um
00:35:34
8 billion a year run rate on sales and marketing at Expedia right now and Uber's got 150 million active installed
00:35:41
users that are using this the Uber Services every month so the idea would be customers yeah actually paying
00:35:47
customers so if Uber could cross- sell some number of Expedia services to their installed base at Uber which they could
00:35:54
test and you know do a little experiment and see if it works they may be able to
00:35:58
reduce the marketing dollars that Expedia spending to acquire customers through other thirdparty sources like
00:36:03
Google and bang and other places so there's a rationale that's where I think the logic breaks down I don't think Uber
00:36:10
customers want to be cross- sold on booking a hotel see this is where I think like MBA thinking is very
00:36:16
different than product thinking like an MBA looking at this would say well you know Expedia and Uber are both in the
00:36:24
travel business their apps both involve booking trips so we can we can cross sell Expedia from Uber and then cut
00:36:33
expedia's marketing budget I think that's how an NBA would sort of handwave over it I think the way like a product
00:36:39
manager would look at this is to say what does the user want to do and I know that when I use the Uber app I just want
00:36:45
to basically make a couple of clicks set my destination get my car and then move
00:36:50
on and there was a there was a product initiative a few years back at Uber where they tried to capture the users's
00:36:56
attention during the ride and they you know they added they that whole ad thing that ad making a ton of money and was
00:37:05
like it was like an entertainment stream or something inside the app no but they
00:37:09
dialed it way back because I don't see it anymore it was just clutter would you TR trust D's judgment on the sacks like
00:37:16
if Dar were to think about what the Uber user would want and he could rationalize
00:37:20
some percentage of them they could cross sell expediate Services into I mean ultimately I think it's it's his
00:37:26
decision right like well I mean what you're describing is basically a private Equity play like Dar is going to come in
00:37:33
as like a private Equity buyer effectively and he knows the business and we'll run it to reduce cost May
00:37:39
boost some revenue and maybe there is a justification for that but if you're trying to justify it based on cross-
00:37:44
selling I don't think users of the Uber app want to be cross- sold when they book a taxi okay they just want to be
00:37:50
able to affect their transaction as efficiently as possible and just to finish the point I was making on that
00:37:56
whole entertainment stream they had they dialed that product way back because it
00:38:00
got in the way you'd be you know in the Uber app trying to figure out how to change your destination or something and
00:38:05
all of a sudden you're being shown like some entertainment product it's not what
00:38:09
users wanted um and it was always kind of a a Banana's idea to think that just because the user books in Uber that you
00:38:20
own their attention during that ride because during that ride you're really competing with every app on the iPhone
00:38:27
right I mean and that's the problem is you want to get in and out of the Uber app it's
00:38:31
about transacting efficiently what about not the moment when you're when you're writing in an Uber but the moment when
00:38:36
you say as an Uber user hey I need to book travel I got to go on a vacation to Austin this I'm never going to think to
00:38:42
go on my Uber app for that the only time I open but what if they put that feature
00:38:45
in there what if they had a tab that said book your travel here you know when I open the Uber app when I want to hail
00:38:50
a taxi that's what but I there are a large number of people who maybe don't have a you know
00:38:56
an assistant to book their hotels in advance and like that would be most people jkl I would not think to go into Uber to
00:39:04
do that it would just be clutter well no but they already have a hotels.com partnership and then the Uber one
00:39:09
membership's been growing pretty nicely and the advertising is doing a billion dollars a year and that is just a money
00:39:14
printing machine because you know that this person's in an Uber black you know that they're going to the Four Seasons
00:39:19
like these users who are you know they have a real ad business at Uber Yeah Yeah the more Uber tries to promote some
00:39:27
unrelated product and what I mean by unrelated is it doesn't help you get to where you're going that moment it's
00:39:33
clutter in the app what about Uber eat sex yeah working pretty well it's working great yeah no the cross
00:39:39
promotion's working that is highly related to that's basically booking a car to pick up some food yeah it's still
00:39:45
the taxi business basically I think the hotel's integration is good I think there's something here we have gone
00:39:52
through a cycle where apps and attention were highly Consolidated with a few now
00:39:57
the has swung the other way and apps are very narrow features that are really well described okay so that's sort of
00:40:05
where we are that's why we have the billions and billions of apps in the App Store the question is does the pendulum
00:40:11
swing back to these super apps and I think the big question is not whether it swings back to the super apps but
00:40:17
whether there's a new substrate that puts itself between the user and all of these services so that they become data
00:40:24
oriented services and this is where the question is if you rely on an agent or you rely on a beef tub version of search
00:40:34
whether that's chat GPT or gemini or whatever why would you care where all of this stuff was done you're not going to
00:40:42
care and this is I think the big mistake in this thinking is that that real estate is actually much more fragile
00:40:49
than I think we all think it is and I think a much better way to think about this is in the future none of this UI
00:40:56
real estate is actually worth anything the question is do you have a data asset that's valuable or do you do a service
00:41:03
that's valuable because agentically there'll be all of these unemotional Bots and workflows doing this work for
00:41:09
you so I think saak is right in the sense that whether it's there or not it won't matter could could he run it like
00:41:16
a private Equity business where now Uber corporation owns two Services sure but you're probably just better off for
00:41:25
these agents to go and cannibalize all of search because you'll be able to just get a data feed for what Expedia has to
00:41:31
create Expedia for a few million dollars or tens of millions of dollars you don't
00:41:35
need to pay 20 or 30 billion dollars for this yeah the thing that I've talked to
00:41:40
DAR about is when they said he told me when they do something that's adjacent to what they're already doing it
00:41:46
explodes in terms of Engagement so like they're doing like teens and rental cars
00:41:51
and then package delivery and every time they do one of those adjacencies it just
00:41:56
takes off with the membership ship and to your point freeberg they have those 150 customers who have their credit
00:42:02
cards in there and man it just it's explosive so that's what I booking a vacation is an adjacency to ordering
00:42:09
food I think hotels would be I don't think flights would be because I think the flights work really well with the
00:42:14
existing apps but things where you have proprietary inventory like VRBO or hotels I think those would be very
00:42:20
powerful and those have 20 30% commissions which are in line with the commissions that Uber's already getting
00:42:27
and the commissions on things like flights is very small like a couple of dollars so I think for hotels and vbo
00:42:33
would be brilliant for the other stuff I'm not so sure to your point Cham well just to finish my my thought yeah yeah
00:42:39
please was that you'll notice that Uber Eats a separate app from Uber right I mean I know you can get to the eats part
00:42:45
within Uber but they created a separate app for a reason is because whether you're using Uber Eats or Uber the goal
00:42:51
is immediate gratification I want to get to where I'm going I don't book it 6 hours in advance I call it right now and
00:42:59
the most important thing to me is wait time this is why Uber is beating lft is time on the weight time is lower same
00:43:05
thing with food I'm not thinking about booking my dinner right now I'm not going to do it in advance if you browse
00:43:09
to the restaurants the most important piece of data they show you in addition to the rating is the number of minutes
00:43:15
it takes for it to get to you so those apps are all about immediate gratification and that's why you don't
00:43:21
want other things getting in the way of them now I guess the claim is somehow you're going to be able to cross sell
00:43:28
the booking of a vacation or a hotel that you have to think about days or weeks in advance it's just a completely
00:43:34
different state of mind I just don't think that there's much opportunity to cross sell
00:43:39
that or to use the technical jargon I don't think the attach rate is going to be high what about the brand value sack
00:43:46
so because you know those people are going to another app to book their flight in their hotel what if that other
00:43:52
app was called Uber travel there might be some value in that I can see that yeah if I think that would be the
00:43:57
rationale where I could see the Expedia brand yeah so maybe maybe what you could
00:44:01
do is take vbo Rebrand it as Uber hotel or Uber travel whatever you want to call
00:44:07
it exactly exactly and then maybe you could push people to download that app well the thing I you know I would the
00:44:14
counter I give to this you could quantify that the value of the installs right so yeah exactly I mean well you
00:44:19
could quantify because Expedia spending on it every year right now I use the bonvoy app to book hotels I use United
00:44:25
to book my flights and I use Uber to my rides and obviously for eats when you are using it there's a tab up top in the
00:44:32
UI is quite nice in Uber where it's rides and eats right next to each other I could see a third one like hotels or
00:44:37
travel being right there and all of a sudden yum yum you just get all that inventory right in there and I
00:44:44
frequently will book my hotel and I'll book my ride for the next day in advance on Uber and I do those things and then
00:44:51
when I get to my hotel I'm ordering food to my room so I think this actually could work really well as a third tab in
00:44:58
the app for travel and you could actually because when you use e in the Uber app it's its own Tab and it's the
00:45:05
exact same experience I I believe in super Ops um and they just launched a bus that's like a bus service in New
00:45:10
York for 18 bucks to go to JFK that's really awesome I think we're a little bit disconnected because we don't book
00:45:15
our own travel but okay let's keep moving here down the docket all right this uh big Tech investing in nuclear
00:45:23
power is off to the races Chim Amazon just announced a $ million investment in three nuclear power projects all of
00:45:31
these are focused on smrs those are the small modular reactors Amazon is working with Dominion
00:45:38
Energy to develop a small modular nuclear reactor near an existing nuclear power plant in Virginia in total Amazon
00:45:45
plans to invest 35 billion in Virginia based data centers by 2040 and they want to power these by
00:45:53
smrs and this is a big Trend Google is purchasing energy directly from chyos Power another company building smrs
00:46:02
Microsoft as you heard was Reviving one of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plants so this is kind of interesting
00:46:09
chath we went from nuclear not being on the table everybody being against it the
00:46:14
Germans shutting down their reactors post Fukushima and now big Tech is the customer for these with AI and they're
00:46:22
putting down very large deposits and payments to build them in America and I haven't heard any opposition maybe you
00:46:30
could just speak to CH what we've seen here in terms of opposition to these versus the opportunity and everybody is
00:46:36
writing checks yeah well they're not writing checks so this is what I don't want to be a Debbie Downer here but
00:46:43
these press releases need to have an asterisk on them so in the hierarchy of deals right just to unpack this for a
00:46:50
second there are deals where you give me X and I give you money that's not what this is then if
00:46:57
you degrade that kind of deal structure in a lot of heavy industry you have deals that are called take or pay which
00:47:04
is there is something that's working and you need to basically take this or you need to give me the monetary equivalent
00:47:10
of what I'm selling you that's not what this is what this is is sort of this conditional obligation where the
00:47:18
beginning of the deal starts with a very important statement which is if it works
00:47:23
and if these approvals happen and there's a whole bunch of nested ifs then payments can happen so while these are
00:47:32
important deals because they show that there are potential buyers at the Finish Line what it doesn't do is solve the two
00:47:41
things that you need to get to the finish line which is the actual risk Capital to finish building these things
00:47:49
and technically drisk them and then the regulatory approval that you need to make sure that they're allowed so I
00:47:56
think think that these deals are good I think it's a great signaling but I think
00:48:00
it's important to understand the nuances of these things these are not things where there's money really
00:48:07
trading hands and until that you see that where irrespective of what happens the balance sheet is investing from an
00:48:14
Amazon or a Google where there's Corp Dev folks writing hundred million doll or billion dollar checks into these
00:48:22
companies it's not yet quite there this is more the step before which is sort of
00:48:28
can you create some marketing and and some buzziness to hopefully induce somebody to then rip in billions of
00:48:34
dollars of risk Equity Capital freeberg your thoughts on smrs and these customers showing up and then
00:48:42
I guess you could comment on the nature of the deal structure here because some of them are you know contingent on the
00:48:50
nuclear power plant turning on some of them do have deposits is my understanding we'll look that up and
00:48:54
fact check it there could be a range of deals here yeah I don't know the nature of the
00:48:59
deals I did I think talk about this a year ago it's it was also like what my prediction for the year was to buy the
00:49:06
uranium stocks predicated on what I think is a really important point which is as GDP per capita grows energy
00:49:16
consumption per capita grows and if you looked at the projections of GDP per capita in industrialized nations there
00:49:24
was no way there is no way to meet the energy demand and this was even pre all this crazy AI buildout which is probably
00:49:32
part of the GDP growth but there is no way to meet the energy demand without nuclear uh there is not
00:49:41
enough solar geothermal or wind buildout potential that's happening that the stop
00:49:48
Gap measure is going to have to be and probably the right long-term solution is to have a significant amount of Base
00:49:54
load come from nuclear and so what's the fastest way to do that nuclear buildout well in China they have
00:50:00
the regulatory Authority and the Mandate stated they're going to build 300 gws with 300 facilities or whatever the
00:50:06
number is and that's what they're doing very large facilities that make a gwatt of power each in the US it seems that
00:50:13
because of the regulatory structure here and the way that utilities are regulated
00:50:17
and the way that the states have authority and the environmental laws and all the other things that it might be
00:50:22
the fastest path to solving this energy gap problem is smrs and that's why and these things
00:50:29
produce tens of megawatts so again a gwatt is a thousand megawatts and you know we need to kind of probably grow
00:50:37
our energy production in the United States by several terawatts over the next decade or two so this SMR may be
00:50:47
the fastest path now that could change meaning we could end up seeing much larger facilities get built out if
00:50:53
there's regulatory change in the US and there's more availability but fundamentally we are going to need to
00:50:59
use uranium to make electricity to meet the demand of the growing the GDP that it seems we're going to be growing it I
00:51:08
think this is just such a necessity it's great to see the SMR is getting some attention I just don't know if they're
00:51:13
actually going to get turned on how long it's going to take and you know I don't
00:51:17
know what this election cycle is going to bring in terms of regulatory change I think we talked about it with several of
00:51:21
the candidates when we were doing the interviews saxs if we are able to get a bunch of these smrs built here in the
00:51:28
United States maybe if Europe follows suit what would this do on a geopolitical basis to our relationship
00:51:36
with the Middle East our energy Independence and of course the AI race to you know general intelligence I'll
00:51:45
let you take it whichever direction you want to go well I don't think we're going to because I don't think anyone
00:51:50
wants a nuclear power plant in their backyard it's really simple I mean no matter what the benefits are for AI or
00:51:57
for America's Global competitiveness I just don't think your typical Community wants a nuclear power plant in their
00:52:03
backyard and I don't think it matters that much if it's a small modular one either so you think they'll get blocked
00:52:07
by local communities yeah and probably for good reason I mean I don't want a nuclear power plan in my backyard do you
00:52:15
I feel like this has suddenly become a little bit of a luxury belief where liberal Els are always talking about how
00:52:21
we need to have nuclear power now but they know they're not going to have a nuclear power plant in their backyard
00:52:27
so it's easy for for all of us to genuflect about what a great idea this is but let's face it these things are
00:52:33
going to be built probably in poor or workingclass communities and inevitably there's going to be some accident I you
00:52:41
can tell me how safe they are to you're blue in the face I don't believe it you know planes aren't supposed to fall out
00:52:47
of the sky either and it does happen and you know they're going to set up a a power one of these power plants
00:52:53
somewhere and you know it's probably going to have a Dei program and something's going to happen I mean
00:52:59
something's going to happen and then the The Fallout it's is literally gonna fall
00:53:05
out on on the people in that poor community so I don't think this is gonna happen this show really has a diversity
00:53:10
of views doesn't it it's like look this is a perfect example of liberal business
00:53:15
Elites demanding something that isn't going to affect them it's not goinge your take on a
00:53:23
non-binary trans lesbian with whatever you're com put putting a small nuclear reactor 200 miles outside of Austin
00:53:34
Texas go put your G had how close do you want it to your Ranch J Cal I mean I think
00:53:41
there's plenty of land outside of the triangle here in Texas where there is no density and you could put one and I'd
00:53:50
have no problem with there being one 100 miles 200 miles who's going to work there who's going to service it I mean
00:53:55
literally you would have to it doesn't take that many people to to service these so
00:54:00
yeah go wrong I think there's plenty of space in the United States to put these and maybe freeberg you could talk and
00:54:06
educate us on the safety here do you believe what saak is saying that it's going to have a meltdown and he doesn't
00:54:13
believe sa's point of view to be honest is the point of view that will be held by a large number of people just like
00:54:23
they have been with a lot of other is it the right point of view though tell us from a science perspective well no no I
00:54:28
don't I don't think it is I think that the same argument would have been made around we shouldn't have airplanes at
00:54:33
all because they can fall from the sky we should keep everyone on the ground where they're safe why would you want to
00:54:38
get on an airplane why would you want to have airplanes flying over your home we
00:54:40
should all ban airplanes flying over our home they could crash in our home it's the same sort of argument and the reason
00:54:45
I'm not going to argue the point is because I I because of the point I made earlier which is that It ultimately
00:54:50
becomes an economic necessity that for us to meet all of the demands of AI all of the Dems of Industry we want to
00:54:57
reindustrialize the United States etc etc we need to increase electricity production capacity on the continent and
00:55:04
there is no way to generate enough electricity on this continent fast enough using other means than there
00:55:10
would be if we just got these these system set up so so you believe they will go through out of
00:55:15
necessity that's your take I think globally this is the case and we're seeing it in China now where the U
00:55:19
whether the US to worry about a nimi problem the CC says this is what we're going to do
00:55:26
and we may we may end up China is the m and nimi my yeah and we may be the we may end up being the Lite State and
00:55:32
we'll end up just saying you know what we're not going to adopt new technology including things like Gene editing and
00:55:37
cell cell therapies and I'll go through the list of new technology sets could make the argument that there's a low
00:55:44
probability of a high-risk event but the fact is that the progress that it enables is worth so much more than the
00:55:50
risk that we would be taking on there's a simpler solution to all of this without having to go and create these
00:55:56
reactors which is I don't think that we have a very good grasp of the material science broadly speaking I don't think
00:56:02
we really understand how to build Next Generation materials I don't think our Specialty Chemicals capabilities are all
00:56:08
that strong the way that they're going to be over the next five or 10 years just with better compute so I think that
00:56:13
there's going to be a lot of intrm steps that increase the generally available energy density without going to nuclear
00:56:20
I think there's going to be a lot of businesses to do that that'll be much safer easier to regulate easier to test
00:56:26
easier to underwrite and I think the government will get behind those so I'm not as negative as you are on the only
00:56:31
solution being nuclear the countries and uh the businesses that have a lower cost
00:56:37
of electricity and a more abundant source of electricity will end up winning as the economy continues to
00:56:43
progress towards a much more kind of digital State and an automated State over the next decades so if we're going
00:56:48
to be slower we're going to suffer the consequences of that as a country so we'll see how it plays out I just think
00:56:53
that economic incentives will ultimately Drive hopefully a would a um possible solution be to give an economic
00:57:00
incentive to the people who would be in the surrounding areas obviously these things could be 50 or 100 miles from you
00:57:06
know anybody's homes but even the people who work there or people who might have I don't know some homes that were
00:57:14
near it could you give them no taxes Etc essentially give them incentives to allow this to go through freeb in your
00:57:21
mind do you think that kind of incentive would work taxes or some kind of pay off or
00:57:27
subsidy I I'm not sure I haven't thought much about like what what the incentives
00:57:31
or subsidies would be you're going to have to give them an incentive because no one's going to want to live within
00:57:35
200 miles of one of these things what would be the number right I think that people people have a very deep
00:57:42
fear of you know what is deemed to be cataclysmic technology I do think a lot of this was rooted in the evolution of
00:57:48
the atomic age where we basically have these nuclear warheads mounted to missiles that can travel at 20 times the
00:57:53
speed of sound and land on your City and wipe out your city I mean that that is also nuclear technology and people can
00:58:00
flate the two as being similar and even Three Mile Island there were you know no
00:58:04
deaths it was a shocking scary thing for people but statistically speaking and historically speaking and technically
00:58:11
speaking it's a lot more complicated to explain to people what happened and why and why now is different and no one has
00:58:17
the time for that no one wants to hear that they want to hear a very simple do you really want a nuclear power plant in
00:58:21
your backyard no way what about you no way all right let's let's vote to stop it and they're
00:58:28
right I mean you compare you compare it to commercial airlines but commercial airlines that's a technology that's been
00:58:34
around for what like a 100 years do you have any data on the safety record of nuclear technology because I'm not sure
00:58:39
you do I think my point is like you're just making a statement out of let's see the data where's the data yeah let's do
00:58:44
it let's do it right now I mean I think this is an important discussion I'd like
00:58:47
to actually point my point about commercial airlines is we've had that technology for over a hundred years it
00:58:52
was honed and refined over many decades and commercial airlines now have become this this is going on almost 100 this is
00:59:00
going on a 100 years of use right you know that there have been incidents every decade or two and that is why
00:59:06
that's not true that's not true you're you're saying something that's not true the reason nuclear has been discredited
00:59:10
is because of Three Mile Island and Fukushima not first of all it's not been discredited I mean these names live in
00:59:17
infamy it's social fearmongering like you were doing right now with no data and no facts to try and make it a
00:59:23
political issue that drives everyone to one side shut their minds down and not listen to the actual facts and data and
00:59:29
this fearmongering is what keeps us from being competitive it what keeps us from
00:59:33
having progress you talk a lot about people talk listen listen I I'm I'm just saying I don't want one near me now if
00:59:41
there hold on a second I'm not saying you 46 deaths at Cheryl I'm not against doing it somewhere where the community
00:59:47
is in favor of doing it so if you can find a place that wants to do this I would not stop it just to be clear I'm
00:59:54
just saying I don't want one year me facts we gotal just give me a second yeah yeah I don't think you're going to
00:59:59
find many takers even among poor communities it's a great adversarial Point let's go to the fact 440 nuclear
01:00:07
power reactors operating in 32 countries around the world since the time that we
01:00:12
first had nuclear reactors which has now been almost a century there have been three incidents Chernobyl Fukushima and
01:00:17
Three Mile Island at three m Island there were zero deaths at Fukushima there was one death and at Chernobyl
01:00:22
there were 46 deaths The Fallout from those events has been that we shut down energy production we shut down nuclear
01:00:30
reactor technology and we fear-monger our way into losing the most abundant available energy do those deaths
01:00:38
actually include the second and third order effects of all this radiy there were 15 people who got thyroid cancer 35
01:00:45
operators and First Responders who got radiation sickness and then the background radiation effects there's a
01:00:50
lot of kind of noise around this but it's not as significant number as you may otherwise think same with fuk Kima
01:00:56
why is it that whole region is still uninhabited then they had a radiation event there's radioactive material that
01:01:02
has covered that area that will be radioactive for a long period of time now to understand what happened there
01:01:08
and why that won't happen again requires talking about the difference in the technology between gen one Gen 2 gen 3
01:01:13
and Gen 4 systems a lot of what's being rolled out now are these gen 3 nuclear reactors and the Gen 4 systems which we
01:01:20
highlighted a little while ago do not have a meltdown possibility right we we talked about this the one that went
01:01:25
online in China in December those new systems the Gen 4 reactors cannot melt down you cannot have an incident like
01:01:31
you did with the Gen one and gen 2 systems and the Gen 3 systems are abundantly safe China is building
01:01:37
hundreds of them it is a it is a totally like understandable science if we want to spend the time looking at the data
01:01:43
and understanding the engineering and the material science work and all the effort that's gone in billions of
01:01:49
dollars over decades the biggest stumbling block and the biggest wall has been the fact that people have this
01:01:54
fearmongering activ that they tell people just dismiss it it's too scary we don't want it in our
01:02:00
backyard let's move on to the next opportunity that's what's killed it and if you just put these things 50 miles
01:02:06
away the radiation even in the meltdowns didn't go past those is my understanding
01:02:12
so we even if you want to just the easiest Steel Man the new systems don't melt down you don't have that
01:02:18
possibility and the SMR I am in 100% don't even work these smrs they don't work they're you how can you say for
01:02:25
sure what the safety record's going to be oh that's just to be clear SMR don't work yet we have theoretical ways in
01:02:32
which we can profile and model that they work but we don't have a functional one
01:02:36
that people can look at and inspect as part of that we haven't been able to test how they fail those are also
01:02:43
theoretical so I think let's put smrs off and let's just be very accurate we don't have a functioning working version
01:02:50
of one because they don't work yet maybe they'll work in the future let's hope that they do you're talking about is is
01:02:56
a step before that which is the Gen 3 reactor which has there are SMR operating in China Russia and India
01:03:03
today and there's about 65 being built at this moment right so and that's outside the US so that's why the US is
01:03:09
is is kind of observing and trying to catch up and adopt these technologies that are being used by call it economic
01:03:15
competitors and economic Partners around the world it's important for economic prosperity in the US for us to have a
01:03:22
degree of competitiveness in electricity prices if China races toward 5 cents per
01:03:26
kilow for electricity and we're sitting here at 20 cents a Kow for electricity what's that going to do to our ecomic
01:03:32
comp we are at 5 cense in the generation and you're saying solar right we can fix that tomorrow we already we
01:03:39
already rely on a nuclear reactor that works and to sais point it just happens to be millions of miles away so it can
01:03:45
if it goes we're all going to go anyways yeah the scalability of of solar in terms of getting us to a terawatt of
01:03:50
production capacity is the the limiting block chth that in order to get to a ter
01:03:56
problems I don't think that's you don't need to it's not a bad thing that other countries are taking the early adopter
01:04:01
risk that would be yeah that's going but if they're if China runs away with this and they have
01:04:09
so many of these running and then they're able to power Ai and solve problems we're not we're going to have
01:04:15
to get our act together and start uh standing these up they just have to every Navy submarin got a nuclear
01:04:20
reactor on board that's how we have so much space in this country these things could be 100 200 miles away but I don't
01:04:26
think energy is a limiting factor in our ability to innovate I don't think it is
01:04:31
today in these data centers certainly it's not the limiting factor in our ability to innovate it's not the
01:04:36
limiting factor in like for example we're asking us to charge up every car every night with electricity with a
01:04:42
battery rather than using G make my point so we just saw open AI launch strawberry is the reason why Microsoft
01:04:50
or Google or meta not responded with their own version an energy problem no we're still rate
01:04:59
limited by Innovation and just raw intellectual horsepower and capability meanwhile we are trying to solve the
01:05:06
energy problem and people are taking different approaches there's storage that's coming online very aggressively
01:05:14
the solar capability itself is ramping up aggressively we're also forcing these utilities to actually be deconstructed
01:05:21
so that there's more efficiency in the energy markets all of this if you unpack wide cost 20 cents a kilow hour it's not
01:05:28
because of a generation problem it is not it's graft it's corruption it's old Legacy infrastructure all of it can be
01:05:36
replaced in a much simpler and safer way so I think by the time that you are rate
01:05:40
limited by energy you'll have a plethora of solutions my issues with the smrs is
01:05:46
the ones that are promising these NextGen whizbang performance characteristics they're all theoretical
01:05:52
free so even when you say there are smrs working abroad there's no like next Generation reactors working abroad they
01:05:58
don't work what do they where is an example of these modern Next Generation reactors actually working where well we
01:06:06
talked about the Gen 41 that went live in China there's several smrs in several countries that are active producing
01:06:12
power you can call it a small modular reactor what I'm talking about these nextg materials the things that chyros
01:06:17
and these other guys are trying to do where is a functioning I'll show you they have them I mean like we have one
01:06:23
in India we have one in China I'll show you the I'll send you links to them here
01:06:27
there's about 50 of them that India's building right now and they're they're competitive with
01:06:33
Kyros right they all have kind of common Design Concepts but they're different companies anyway I'm just saying like
01:06:38
they're they're getting harm in just freeberg maybe you can educate Us in the distance it could be from a city
01:06:45
reasonably in terms of building a grid to move the energy from could it be 200 miles from a major city 300 100 what's a
01:06:55
what's a want you can put Power production wherever you want as long as you got the copper to
01:07:00
move it right move the electrons yeah I'm just trying to think reasonably move it is uh I guess what I was getting at
01:07:05
but okay well there you have it folks a good debate here on the Allin a good debate I still love you all we'll lay
01:07:12
we'll lay Copper from some country that has an SMR all the way to right all the way funny you said Washington State I
01:07:20
was just thinking like if Canada and Mexico have you know economic incentive to do this or they're more bold maybe
01:07:27
they build them in their countries and then they'll be selling it to the United States right they'll take the I mean if
01:07:33
you're chyros and you can't put this in the United States but you could put it in Mexico and then come up with a you
01:07:39
know a way to get it past Trump's border wall you may be able to put it into the
01:07:42
United States but we won't know until we know it works just I'm sorry I keep going back
01:07:48
to this tricky little issue if it doesn't work well I mean I think free brg on with you and that the even with
01:07:55
the fers that have happened those are with Gen one and gen 2 reactors there hasn't been one in a long time and the
01:08:00
fall I believe those spend those up right now these Gen 2 gen 3 reactors do them all day long I think that they're
01:08:06
very safe they're very three and four the threes are what we should 100 miles from my backyard no problem four
01:08:14
that's producing China is producing a gigawatt of power would you want 10 miles outside Austin I don't think you
01:08:20
should put it 10 miles outside of any City I know that they're doing that in India they're doing that in China I
01:08:24
would think I you know if you look up the footprint of Fukushima I mean that was a complete
01:08:30
disaster they put that below sea level they told them not to put it there and they put it near a bunch of people who
01:08:36
you know were living within miles of it single- digit miles of it there's no reason for this to be any closer than 50
01:08:42
or 100 miles and I would be totally fine with it being 50 to 100 miles from where
01:08:46
I'm on my ranch right now absolutely no problem with that I think this is a classic luxury belief where it's easy
01:08:53
for you to espouse this for everybody else for the nation because you know the downsides aren't going to fall on you
01:09:01
no far away from where we use them and maybe everyone will be safe would you would you be comfortable with putting
01:09:06
them in the desert yeah but but in that case there won't be okay then we're done
01:09:09
that's how we're running wind and geothermal today we're putting these sites in random places and solar and
01:09:15
then we're running cable and we're you know proding solar just because they don't want it to be an eyesore right
01:09:20
that's why we're doing that with solar we don't want people to look at a giant solar thing like I said I'm not against
01:09:26
doing it if you can find a community that's willing to do it and if you put it where there's no humans then yeah
01:09:31
that that's going to work we resolved our issue we got the compromise here here we are solving world problems
01:09:38
yes I'm going to get my guitar and we're going to sing kumr to work at this place you better
01:09:45
get some robot employees I can't wait for you guys to lay millions of miles of copper cabling now as a
01:09:51
soltion I'll lay that pipe genius you need me to lay pipe I'll do genius no Sak do you want to go visit a nuclear
01:09:57
power plant zero yeah go how's any progress sax is not interested in any progress okay if we can go back to the
01:10:05
50s that's what he wants let's get some you're like virtue signaling I'm virtue signaling because I'm Pro nuclear yes
01:10:12
it's a luxury belief you're promoting something nuclear power is a luxury belief you heard it your first because
01:10:18
they're going to put these things in poor communities and so it's never going to affect your life they're putting them
01:10:22
next to Data Center in like Oregon like it's easy for you to say oh I support nuclear look how
01:10:29
Progressive I am look how smart I am you haven't internalized the downsides I just want abundant electricity idty
01:10:37
politics for you sax everything you see the land Po and Rich everything I'm defending the poor you're going to put
01:10:44
these things in poor communities you're genu flecting sax looking out for the poor look at you Mr Mr Robin Hood over
01:10:51
here Rob defending the right of communities to say no to this you are sence experiment you're my favorite I'm
01:10:57
defending the right of local communities to say no to your science experiment okay that's what it comes down toe sober
01:11:04
is trying to put this episode 200 I love it sums up the whole the 200 shows sack
01:11:10
let me ask you a serious question it's not serious when you start like that if Trump
01:11:18
loses what's the next four years on this pod gonna be like what are we gonna do here we lose this he's moving to New
01:11:26
Zealand there's going to be laware all over the place absolutely they're going to come for him do you really think so
01:11:31
David yeah I do I mean look I'm definitely not the top of the list elon's at the top of the
01:11:37
list right so he has he has no choice but to go all in they're already doing laware against him it's ridiculous but I
01:11:43
think the point is just that if they're not defeated they're going to keep doing
01:11:48
it because there's no downside for it I will comment on the California Coastal commission ruling that was based
01:11:55
on elon's political tweets which is why they stopped additional launches out of vandenbberg first of all how the C
01:12:02
Coastal commission has authority over vandenbberg and the operations it just seems to me like there's something wrong
01:12:09
the coastal commission was set up with the coastal act in 1976 in California as a way to give the beaches back to the
01:12:16
people and the public and create a commission to regulate building along the beaches it has since grown into
01:12:22
effectively a much larger uh entity with much more Authority which potentially after the
01:12:28
Chevron ruling in the Supreme Court may get peeled back and may get dialed down we'll see what happens but as of now
01:12:35
they have the ability to block launches out of vandenbberg which they did and in
01:12:39
their decision they said it was because of elon's political tweets again starting at the beginning of the show
01:12:44
about the success that they had with the Starship this week it's incredible it deserves to be recognized on the merits
01:12:50
of what they accomplished but to bring in his political tweets to make a decision about the progress of SpaceX
01:12:55
and allow public space to be used to further that that cause and further that activity seems to me abhorent and it's
01:13:02
ridiculous and it's exactly what's wrong with the bureaucratic morass that a lot
01:13:07
of these institutions have grown into and this was Pro or con smrs exactly yeah no I'm serious do do
01:13:18
you think G beiss what the coastal commission does is they they they block they block
01:13:25
everything and they do pictures of the entire Coastline if you build like a shed on your beachfront property they
01:13:32
will know it and they come to you and they're like no sheds you cannot build any structures on the beach they're just
01:13:38
like really really hard it's a it's a values decision that the state of California made in 1976 the state of
01:13:43
California the the citizens voted and said we want to preserve the coastline and I think that that's a reasonable
01:13:49
value for them to assume and and vote for and it was a majority vote and so they established the coastal Commission
01:13:55
but how the the coastal commission extended into having authority over vandenbberg and launches from there for
01:14:00
SpaceX to me is part of this kind of administrative you know growth like we see all these administrative
01:14:05
bureaucracies get started that have a very simple objective preserve the California coastline but now they have
01:14:10
authority to determine whether or not launches can happen at Air Force one person at the coastal commission
01:14:17
referenced his tweets and the vote was 6'4 to increase these so who is this one person did in an official context I
01:14:25
think she was like retweeting it there's like a tweet from her yeah this is what
01:14:29
I'm don't she was taking credit for it I mean in a way favor proud of it she said
01:14:33
the quiet part out loud so in a way she does a favor which is she acknowledged that all of this lawfare against SpaceX
01:14:41
and Elon is political she basically pleaded guilty to it look she's proud of it because she doesn't think there's
01:14:46
anything wrong with it she thinks this is her job is as a bureaucrat she's supposed to punish people who tweet
01:14:52
things that you're not supposed to say that basically is what it comes comes down to and um I mean this is the truth
01:14:58
about lawfare they're using the agencies of the federal government to exact rep reprisals against their political
01:15:04
opponents and if there's not if there's not a punishment for that it's going to keep going and they they filed a Elon
01:15:11
filed a lawsuit and it's a six4 decision so I I think by way the Biden Harris Administration could stop that they
01:15:18
could say no more lawfare but they don't do that because the tone was set from the top and Trump is saying he's going
01:15:25
to be a dictator and he's going to do a bunch of law fair when he gets in there so both of these sides got to settle it
01:15:30
down that's exactly what he said this has been another okay J You Can't Rap a show like
01:15:35
that that's just not cool I'm just trying to wrap up so we can move on well then don't make a slight comment itself
01:15:39
like just do something else talk about something else besides Trump at the end like I'm just giving my opinion I'm not
01:15:44
allowed to give my opinion on the show op what are you grateful for right now in your life I'm grateful for you doing
01:15:49
all the work on the events and making them spectacular I'm really excited for saaks live from Maro oh God I will
01:15:57
totally go to Mar Lago for election night can we get a booth there that would be hilarious you keep saying it
01:16:02
it's not clear you would be invited yeah exactly of course I'm invited Trump loves
01:16:07
Mei with everybody neither neither you nor I gave the hundreds of thousands of dollars per ticket to go to dinner with
01:16:12
Trump please that Trump loves me he he enjoy time very selective it's for friends get jamas get an
01:16:20
invite man okay I'll do it remote that's fine you can do it remote fine you want
01:16:25
Jake out there it's fine go with me wait when is the election I want to be I don't want to be at a party I'm not
01:16:29
invited to it's in two weeks and three days four days November 5th Sur it's like just waiting every day
01:16:37
for it to drop whatever it's I just hope whoever wins wins like significantly so
01:16:42
we signant please win by 30 electoral vot cour no Supreme Court decision right now the only candidate who looks like he
01:16:53
could get a landslide is Trump otherwise it's going to be very close so you're rooting for Trump if you want a
01:16:58
landslide I mean I'm going to I'm going to reveal my vote on the election special I will have really hard to
01:17:04
figure out I'm sure the audience will be held in great suspense by that did you guys vote yet did you guys
01:17:12
vote yet I have I got my ballot on my I got my ballot on my desk here yeah I'm ready to go I'm ready to go all right
01:17:18
everybody this has been another wonderful episode oh meetups there are 200 episode meetups happening thank you
01:17:25
to all the fans who got together take pictures and share them on social and at mention us allin.com meetups every
01:17:32
couple of episodes fans get together around the world and talk about their favorite bestie it's typically fre birg
01:17:39
and we'll see you next time byebye byebye let your winners ride Rainman David and instead we open source it to
01:17:54
the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love queen [Music] of [Music] Besties my dog taking
01:18:11
driveways man oh man myit will meet me we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy CU they're all
01:18:19
this useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow
01:18:27
[Music] we need to get mer [Music] our I'm going all in