00:00:00
If I'm asking myself, Chamath, how do I
00:00:01
underwrite SpaceX at $2 trillion? Here's
00:00:04
the basic math that I would do. Well,
00:00:06
last year it did 18 19 billion dollars.
00:00:10
It'll probably do 25 to 30 this year.
00:00:12
Okay. So, I'm buying this thing at a
00:00:15
fairly costly premium, right? So, what
00:00:18
am I buying? Well, I'm buying probably
00:00:21
the most important internet
00:00:23
infrastructure project that's happened
00:00:24
since the internet itself.
00:00:26
That's going to scale to hundreds of
00:00:27
millions of users. And the reason that's
00:00:28
going to scale to hundreds of millions
00:00:29
of users is
00:00:31
it's just very useful and it's just
00:00:32
going to become cheaper and cheaper and
00:00:33
cheaper. So, that's number one. I'm
00:00:35
buying a delivery infrastructure. I
00:00:37
think over time GDP plus 10, GDP plus 15
00:00:40
kind of a grower. So, good business,
00:00:43
valuable business, but it's the
00:00:44
underlying platform that allows
00:00:45
everything else to happen. And then I'm
00:00:46
buying an AI business, which will be at
00:00:48
the top level the apps, but at the
00:00:50
bottom layer all the compute capability.
00:00:52
So, I suspect what happens is next year
00:00:55
it's probably
00:00:56
40 45 billion. And then the year after
00:00:59
that it probably doubles again, so then
00:01:01
I'm buying it at 20 times revenue. And
00:01:03
you would say, "Well, why can you buy a
00:01:04
company like this on revenue versus
00:01:06
earnings and cash flow?" And I think the
00:01:08
reason is because what the revenue does
00:01:10
is it gives him the operating leverage
00:01:12
to go and invest in all of these other
00:01:14
businesses that ultimately consolidate
00:01:18
his differentiation and his competitive
00:01:20
moat. Because what he creates is a
00:01:22
capital moat that then accelerates a
00:01:24
technology moat that then accelerates an
00:01:26
execution and a learning moat.
00:01:28
And that's why we feel when it starts to
00:01:30
spin very quickly. And you would say,
00:01:32
"Hey, hold on a second. It's probably
00:01:34
spinning quickly now." I would say we're
00:01:36
at the beginning of the beginning. He
00:01:37
still has all these disparate assets. I
00:01:39
still don't like the fact that Tesla's
00:01:40
over here. And as I've told you, that
00:01:43
will get merged in. And now you have
00:01:45
this incredible corpus of
00:01:48
physical capability,
00:01:50
movement of all kinds, X, Y, and Z,
00:01:53
right? That thing will look very cheap I
00:01:55
think in a few years. And he has this
00:01:58
one thing that nobody else, if you look
00:02:00
at the big CEOs, who steps on stage
00:02:03
where you're always curious, okay, what
00:02:05
has he got up his sleeve? You know, the
00:02:07
Steve Jobs, oh, and one more thing. He's
00:02:09
the guy. Whether you like him or you
00:02:11
hate him, he's the guy. And there's a
00:02:13
premium that is well deserved that comes
00:02:15
with that.
