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All right, everybody. Welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. It's the all-in podcast. David Saxs
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couldn't make it this week, but we have the trio. David Freeberg is here, your
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Sultan of Science, Jim Polatia. SpaceX filed confidentially to go public on April 1st, targeting a 1.75
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trillion with the T valuation. When SpaceX goes public, if it's at that $ 1.75 uh trillion dollar valuation, so
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weird to say trillion dollar valuation for an IPO, uh they would be the eighth largest company in the world, right
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behind TSMC and Saudi Aramco. They're both worth $1.7. Uh at the taping of this podcast, Tesla is number 10 with
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$1.37 trillion valuation. Hey, if you were to combine those two, as many people are speculating, will happen at
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some point and you can buy the stock ticker E, that would be a $3.1 trillion company, and that would make them the
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fourth largest company ahead of Microsoft. They're aiming to raise Chomoth 75 billion, which would be the
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by far the biggest raise ever in an IPO. Uh, expected to go out in June. I think
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they were trying to hit the 420 date because that would have been even more hilarious, but uh they're not going to
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be able to do that. SpaceX uh recently acquired X.AI for 250 billion. That includes X and Twitter and
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the XAI large language model AI company Starlink, generating between 50 and 80% of SpaceX's revenue. We'll have all
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those details shortly. Um and it'll be close to $20 billion a year according to
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reports. Launch of rockets is the other 40% of the business, 5 billion in 2024 according to reports. Total revenue 2025
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15 to6 billion with 8 billion in profit according to Reuters. So let's stop there uh and we're going to talk about
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all the other IPOs that could be coming. Uh Chamal, I think people really want to know and
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you may have mentioned this on an earlier episode. What are the chances that Tesla after if this IPO goes well
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that Tesla and SpaceX could wind up being the same company? We saw they're collaborating
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>> on a fab 100% is what you're putting it on. >> Okay. >> Okay. Sorry. Let me let me be clear.
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99.999%. >> Okay. What will that mean when if those two companies or when those two
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companies merge? One of the great things that happened in my career was there was
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a point where you know how like you grind at a level and then you know you just get exposed to things at a
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different level and then you grind for years and you get exposed to things at yet another level. In one of those
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steps, I was very fortunate to be introduced by Thomas Lefant actually to the head of Wtel Lipton.
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>> This is a law firm >> law firm and his name is Ed Hurley and he said this is the most important
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well-known well-run powerful law firm in America. Then I looked at the transactions and they're just in the
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middle of everything. And now, you know, my lawyer, Raj Narian, who does everything for me, one of the senior
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partners at Wakdal, I can attest are incredible. And they said to me in the middle of all of this
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stuff when I was doing a bunch of deals, they said, "Just get ready to pay a
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tax." And I said, "What does that mean?" They said the way that the American
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capital markets are set up is both that you can be incredibly creative and do incredible things, but and we talked
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about this a little bit last week, there's a bunch of tort that allows folks to hang around the hoop and get
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paid no matter what. You see this in all IPOs. Shareholder lawsuits abound and they try to create a class out of it.
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And the reason they do that is that there's DNO insurance that then will pay
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out some number of millions of dollars. The attorneys take 40 or 50% and then these plaintiffs get a few bucks. You
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saw how egregious this tort manipulation was when this guy with 10 shares sued Elon's comp package at Tesla and won.
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And what was that really? That was the trial lawyers trying to get paid hundreds of millions of dollars by
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exploiting a scene. Call it what >> it was a shakeddown. Why am I bringing
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this up? If you take the the Raj and Ed example of this, this SpaceX IPO is going to set up a couple of things. The
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first is there's going to be the natural noise in the market and Elon will have
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to sort through all of the little ticky tacky things. But the most important positive thing that will happen from the
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IPO is a validated external marktomarket valuation of SpaceX. and the market every day in real time
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gives you a valid marktomarket assessment of the value of Tesla. And this allows you to put these two things
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together to minimize these losses. >> And I think that that's what Elon really
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needs. It'll make his life tremendously simpler from a governance perspective.
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It'll make the companies and this quibbling about his time a non-issue because again nobody talks about Zuck or
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Satya or Sundar or Jensen allocating time across various projects inside of Meta or Google or
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Microsoft or Nvidia. nor should they really make this claim from Elon because as you're seeing there's actually an
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enormous overlap and commonality to the various things that he is doing. He's
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building the robots but they're used inside of SpaceX. He's building a terrafab they're used inside of Tesla.
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He's building XAI they're used across both. So I think we need to do this.
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It'll minimize the shareholder noise because it'll give less room to somebody
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that says, "Hey, he set evaluation out of thin air." Well, >> but dollars to donuts, these things are
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going to merge >> and it speaks to the singularity that's going on right now.
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>> You know, you had a car company, you had a space company. Okay, that was a pretty
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How do those two things overlap? And it's like AI data centers in space. Where do you get chips from? and then
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actually going to raw materials inside of one factory going out the other and having discussed it with Elon many times
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when he learned you know at Tesla or SpaceX about advanced materials informed different products at the different
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companies and now you just you'll have all of that in one place and then you
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think about the brain trust that he built at those two companies plus boring company plus Neuralink if they're all in
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there all this cross-disciplinary learning is going to compound and compound and compound. Elon knows more
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about factories than probably >> anybody >> anybody like some people in China who
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have you know >> Foxcon knows a lot about factories you know so there are some people who know
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as much or or probably even a little bit more about some aspects of it but that's
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a true advantage of bringing those two teams together and you saw it people would go from one company to the other
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Freeberg my question for you very acutely with your NASA hat and uh you know your your background today is
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20 years ago He he started trying to get to space with SpaceX and here we go. There's more rockets going off in a
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month now than there are days in the month for for the entire country and he's got rockets going up every 2 or 3
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days. You can just basically hop on a SpaceX flight and get to space. Maybe you could just use your vision there to
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tell the audience what could things look like in another 20 years if SpaceX continues at this cadence or even, you
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know, goes faster because of AI. Well, this week's a pretty important milestone
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for that point because we just launched Artemis 2 yesterday, which is man's returning to the moon. So, the United
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States shipped this rocket with four astronauts on board. They're going to do
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an orbit around the Earth, head to the moon, come back around, and come back to Earth in anticipation of landing on the
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moon in about 2 years. And getting to the moon, I think, is going to be very important. Not just
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because there's this important social milestone and race happening on right now with China, but I think the moon
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could end up being kind of the next industrial frontier for humanity. And the reason is if you can get to the
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moon, the moon has an extraordinary abundance of material that we can mine, process, and manufacture into goods. And
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ultimately the cost to ship those goods back to the earth is zero. It will cost less to move goods, manufactured goods,
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processed ore, uh, precious metals from the moon to a specific point on Earth. It will cost less to do that than to
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ship it using any other terrestrial conventional method, whether that's a boat, an airplane, or a railroad. And
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the reason is that on the moon, you can take advantage of the low gravity. It's
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about 16 the gravity and the complete lack of an atmosphere, meaning that it's
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frictionless to move material off of the moon and very low energy to move it off
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of the moon. You do not need to use a rocket propellant with high energy like we have to do to move things off of the
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Earth. In fact, the design for moving material off of the moon is to use what's called a mass driver, which is
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like a a train track, like a rail, like an electric rail. You kind of see these in, you know, high-speed trains that
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work on kind of magnetic levitation. And you could put a package on that rail and
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use electricity to accelerate that package to 100 g force, shoot it back to the Earth, or theoretically shoot it to
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Mars, and it will go to the exact point on the Earth you want it to go to, re-enters the atmosphere, and lands with
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a a simple parachute where you want it to go. So we could run continuous mining, continuous manufacturing
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processes on the moon at a fraction of the cost of what it would take to do it here on Earth. The biggest limiting
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factor getting people to the moon. And that is largely solved or will be solved in the next few years by robotics. So I
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think that there's this pretty profound intersection with what's going on in
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robotics with this moment for space industrialization and moving to the moon. So, you know, Tesla, I think 20
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years from now is actually a more interesting story, whether they're the same independent company or the same
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company. I think we're going to look back one day and have this kind of laughing observation that Tesla started
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out as an electric car company. >> 100% ended up becoming an autonomous car
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company. And the autonomous competency is what led to the robotics revolution. and the robotics revolution. Even if the
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socialists ban robotics on Earth and tell us no robots allowed, they're taking all the jobs, you could ship all
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those robots to the moon and they could get to work and create an entirely new manufacturing frontier for our
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civilization, for humanity. That frontier can manufacture precious metals and other goods and ship them back. You
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could manufacture semiconductors on the moon. All that's missing is the robots.
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So moving the robots to the moon or setting up the materials for robots to build themselves on the moon is kind of
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the first phase of this transition, you know, asking about 20 years from now. And then the next phase is building this
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all out. So look, I mean, I think that this may not be and it certainly won't
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be limited to just SpaceX. But SpaceX is demonstrating its capacity at being effectively the railroads. You know,
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what the railroads were to the west and to the frontier in the west, you know, in the last generation. SpaceX will be
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to the moon and ultimately to Mars. And there's going to be an extraordinary
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abundance of production that's going to come out of the moon. The moon has everything by the way and I'll say one
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more thing about SpaceX. SpaceX has also created and this is going to be a big part of the valuation analysis that many
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are doing. They've created a backup to the internet. You know the internet is
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fundamentally limited by all of the nodes on the network and the connectivity amongst all those nodes.
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And that connectivity is largely driven by copper and fiber optic cable. So in space with the number of satellites
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going up with Starlink and to actually deploy data centers that can output data on those nodes on that network, SpaceX
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has largely built a backup internet. And that backup internet can coincide with the Earth's internet, but it creates
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this extraterrestrial communication network that gives us theoretically the ability to think about, hey, if
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governments collapse, if there's civilizational upheaval, etc., etc., etc., this becomes, I think, a
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fundamentally kind of important technology infrastructure that's going to exist in parallel. So, I'm pretty
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excited about like these two separate paths for SpaceX and where they intersect with Tesla, I think, is pretty
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profound at the moment. >> Yeah. And it can't be understated what lowering the cost per kilogram to get to
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space has done to entrepreneurs around the company. There's multiple entrepreneurs who are now doing asteroid
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mining or VA doing experimentation in space and I have a I've been doing some
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latestage stuff with my syndicate and one of the interesting companies we syndicated
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we we did zipline which is a great company but we also did this company called VAS vast space uh Jed is the
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founder he he created uh Ripple and uh and and some other crypto projects and he put a lot of his money hundreds of
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millions of dollars into this company vast case and they're designing a space
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station. How did they do it? Well, they just bought carriage on SpaceX rockets and they paid in advance. They have
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their slot and now they're doing this massive innovation to make modular space
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station components. >> Here's what I'll >> And the thesis is, hey, what if Google
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or Amazon want to have a space station in space? You know, it's completely possible they may want that.
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>> Here's what I'll say. I think >> sometimes it's better to be lucky than
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good. There are all of these ways that so many people will end up with participation into SpaceX. I think we
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all owe Elon an enormous thanks. I think that this is going to unleash just an unbelievably large economy of things
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that we have no idea about. And when I see this thing, that video that you just showed, what it reminds me is that we
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have an very rudimentary capability in space. What does that mean? If you take, if you catch a ride on Falcon 9 or
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Falcon Heavy, basically it's dropping you off at 550 km. I think you have a different problem if you're trying to
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get to geo. But even if you get dropped off at 500 or 550, how do you get to your actual orbital plane? Right? So
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meaning if you think of Elon as like the big container ships that go from China to America once it gets to Long Beach,
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you need FedEx. There's an entire infrastructure there that's going to get
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all of this logistics built last mile. There's a huge garbage collection problem that's getting built up. We
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still haven't technically solved how to do garbage collection in space. There's
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nets, there's magnetic plates. All of that is getting fixed. Then there's
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going to be an explosion in actual power generation. The cell composition of solar cells up in space are materially
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different. It's a really incredible thing. You look at these thin sheets, they are like one millimeter thick. You
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if you carried it on your hand, the glass breaks, yet you can smash a meteor into it when it's laid and laminated and
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nothing happens. It's like the It's like So my point is in every single dimension
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of what the earthly economy looks like, it's now going to go and get rebuilt in
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space. There will be a FedEx of space. There'll be a MK of space. There'll be a
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I don't know what the garbage collection companies are. Allied Waste of Space.
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There's going to be everything of space that exists in the United States. Freeberg just talked about the Freeport
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Macaran of space. Like everything >> and that we owe to him. >> Yeah. And I hope he gets that credit
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because the amount of businesses I think that can get created and the amount of value that will be created on top of
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SpaceX's shoulders is vast. It's the beginning of the beginning of the beginning and it's going to create
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enormous opportunities for people who are smart and resourceful. >> And Freeberg, maybe you could comment on
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the PGMs, the palladium that's on asteroids and just how they're rare here
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on Earth. If we had an unlimited supply or a continuous supply of those minerals, you know, what what could the
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downstream effect of that be? And then what if we find things in space that we are unaware of? There are unknown
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unknowns. Correct, Freeberg, when you start to conceptualize this. I do think like the asteroid mining is an
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interesting concept but I do think it's going to be more likely that we'll have
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the need for infrastructure so we can produce ores and refine and so on versus you know bringing chunky rock back. I
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think that you could do this very effectively on the moon. The primary elements that are missing from the moon
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that we have on the earth are you know carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen and oxygen. basically
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these things that make life on Earth. But that's because they primarily exist
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in a gaseous form and the Earth has enough gravity to retain those gases and have an atmosphere. The moon is too
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small to maintain an atmosphere. The gravity is too little. So those gases all kind of went away. They evaporated
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away in the early formation of the Earth and the Moon. But on the moon, there's
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everything else. There's aluminum, there's silicon, there's palladium,
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there's platinum, there's gold, there's everything you possibly need. So, I
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think as we do the calculus on all of this, we'll end up realizing that the moon is probably the best frontier. One
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of the biggest issues is dissipating heat because you don't have an atmosphere. But theoretically, you could
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recapture that heat and use like helium gas or something to turn a turbine and actually run production of even more
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electricity. You just put a couple solar panels out. I did the math on this. It's
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like 500 square meters of solar panels will let you run a 4 km mass driver to ship material back to the earth every 10
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to 15 minutes. One ton of material every 10 to 15 minutes >> on the sled you described earlier that
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Elon's been talking about as well. Yeah. >> So you could think about having
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autonomous mining vehicles deployed on the moon processing the ore and then sending completely processed material
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back. And then for a heat shield for re-entry to the earth you just use moon rock. You only need about 15 cm of moon
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rock at the front of the package and then that'll burn up when it re-enters the atmosphere and the package, you
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know, kind of parachutes down and lands where you want it to land in your industrial shipyard or whatever. So
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there's just like, you know, I think we'll we'll continue to kind of iterate
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on this. I'm speculating in a bunch of different ways. >> The beginning the beginning of the
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beginning gosh I mean can you imagine having a moon base in America >> going like like Yeah. Well, imagine
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Jacob like permanently present on the moon is just and factories on the moon is just wild to consider.
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>> Can you guys just imagine like the middle or the early 19th century like
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the late 1700s, early 1800s in America and there's like all this land out on
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the west and like whatever people were contemplating in that moment about what they were going to go do with that land
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on the west and they started to travel west their minds would have been blown to see what happened 100 years later or
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now 150 years later. You know, like it's just that's the moment that we're at
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right now. And the railroads are being built to get us to this next great frontier. They're being laid out before
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us. And the opportunity is really limited only by our imagination. And before we would have never been able to
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tackle these great frontiers, but this magical new technology came about called robots. And these robots are are going
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to allow us to actually make use of these frontiers and explore them and develop them. And that's why this is
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such an incredible moment where this intersection of autonomy and robotics and space traversal kind of drive
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forward humanity into this new era. And it's again, this is not a zero sum game.
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This is expanding humanity's potential, expanding production, which is so different than the way the socialists on
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Earth are talking about it where everyone's fighting against progress because they think that progress is some
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people taking things from other people. And the truth is, it's about everyone
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building stuff that's new and everyone benefiting from this. >> I'm gonna open a hotel casino in the
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space. >> Go. That'd be so serious. >> Serious. >> Absolutely.
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>> You think it's funny, but I am. >> I would love that. >> Yeah. And then no rake. No rake. No
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gravity. No rake. No gravity. Bob, >> no tax on tips or poker winnings. I love
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it. Whoever implements the red light district in space is going to become a trillionaire.
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>> Oh, wow. That's Yeah, with the robotics and the uh pleasure droids, replicants.
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Oh, man. It could get crazy. All right. Well, let's just hope you're we're not
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the Donner party on the way there. Um >> 2026, >> don't worry. You'll be you'll be safely
00:20:30
on the ground >> shing syndicates. You'll be fine. I >> I'll tell you something. Uh thank you.
00:20:35
Shout out the syndicate.com apply to join me in great companies. >> Do you listen? I'm still You guys might
00:20:42
be retiring, but I'm in the game. I'm in the arena trying things. >> I'm selling I'm selling enterprise
00:20:48
software every day. That's what >> I mean. He literally Truman said, "Hey,
00:20:51
Jake, can we wrap this up real quick cuz I got to get on a sales call. I got a discovery call."
00:20:56
>> Listen, I like the fact that we're all working. We're working into our 50s. I
00:21:00
love it. Hey, 2026 could be an alltime record for IPOs. Looks like it will be Anthropic,
00:21:07
OpenAI, Data Bricks. I mean these are all nine and possibly 10 figure IPOs in terms of the valuations. Long tale of
00:21:16
other companies uh Stripe, Cerebrus, Canva, Discord, lots of people waiting. Here's
00:21:24
your Poly Market. SpaceX 94% obviously that looks like it's uh we just talked
00:21:29
about that for 20 minutes. Anthropic 41% and people were saying 70% in February,
00:21:34
OpenAI 38%, data bricks 32%. People are wondering what could um derail this. Obviously we we we have a
00:21:43
very pro business group of people in Washington DC, but you have potentially this uh Iran war and we'll talk about
00:21:50
that later in the program could potentially push us back if god forbid it was to spiral or there was a
00:21:56
recession. Uh maybe the Democrats you know, taking control of Congress, Senate, etc. What are your thoughts here
00:22:03
on the flurry of potential IPOs? We're talking about trillions of dollars of
00:22:08
companies, Chimath. And if that does happen, let's start talking second and third order impact of of that kind of
00:22:14
distribution chain that could happen for LPS and then just also all these employees. Uh, you know, and then a
00:22:22
currency for these companies. We go from a mag 7 to a MAG 17. It looks like >> I think that we have a bit of a risk
00:22:28
problem. And I think this is why it makes so much sense for Elon to get out first.
00:22:36
If you think about appetite as equivalent to like a person at a Thanksgiving dinner, when you first come
00:22:42
in and you see all of this stuff, it's so plentiful. Your eyes are bigger than
00:22:45
your stomach. And I think in a moment like that, you want to be the one that is consumed first. M
00:22:53
>> and I think the risk increases when you are at the tail end because the risk is
00:22:58
that the diners will run out of space and if you use that fills up yeah >> and if you use that analogy I think the
00:23:05
reason why people's plates will get full are probably twofold and maybe three-fold
00:23:12
the first and most important thing is there's enough tactical event risk that
00:23:19
people generally want to be risk off and have more margin of safety. I think the Iran thing is kind of in
00:23:27
there, but I think the big tactical event risk is that we have a lot of these really important financial moments
00:23:36
tied to this concept of AGI, ASI, I don't know if you saw the OpenAI announcement on their final terms, but
00:23:44
you know, a huge slug of Amazon's capital is tied to a 2028 IPO or a moment that calls for this. Then there
00:23:52
was a bunch of leaked text messages or whatever that said that there's a version of some AGI running inside of
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anthropic. Then there was the fact that, you know, the leak of claude code basically demonstrated that they had
00:24:05
feature flagged away a bunch of improvements. So if you stack up all these improvements, they're actually
00:24:11
much further ahead than the models realized. If you take all of that as a basket, it goes back to what I said last
00:24:16
week, which is we have a real pricing problem. If AGI is real, the durability of most companies is slim to none. If
00:24:26
AGI is not real, then the fundraising capacity of these companies that are now raising hundreds of billions of dollars
00:24:32
needs to get questioned and inspected thoroughly. History will sort out which one is right. But both cannot be right.
00:24:38
So in that vein, I actually think Jal, I don't think we're going to have like
00:24:42
these quote unquote blockbuster stream of IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX is going to get out. They're going to do
00:24:48
great and then maybe the next one does good to great, then the next one will do good
00:24:55
and then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb incrementally trillions of dollars of new demand. And
00:25:04
if you think about it, where is it going to come from? Is it going to come from the sidelines? I don't know. I think
00:25:09
it's more of a reallocation exercise. But if you look at the S&P, well, most
00:25:13
people are now defensively moving away from these kinds of things towards the things that are more protected, what the
00:25:19
industry calls halo, right? High asset, low obsolescence kind of businesses. Those things trade for zero
00:25:26
today, Jason. >> You could buy hundreds of millions of dollars of year of cash flow for two to
00:25:31
five times right now in the stock market. And so why are you gonna go way out on the risk curve and buy something
00:25:37
at 200 times revs, let alone earnings? >> Yeah. The the >> So I don't know. I'm I'm more in the
00:25:44
camp of I think it's good to be first. It's pretty decent to be second, but if I
00:25:50
were you, I would get the heck out and get public and get your money and fortify your balance sheet ASAP because
00:25:57
I think the risk builds the further down the IPO chain you're in. Yeah. There's
00:26:02
going to be a competition for investor dollars, whether it's retail or it's
00:26:08
institutional or sovereign wealth funds. They're going to have a lot of choices
00:26:12
here. Do you want to be in Nvidia? Do you want to be in SpaceX? Maybe you have to rotate out of Amazon or Google or
00:26:18
Disney in order to take on those opportunities. And that's going to be a great competition. probably we could see
00:26:24
a lot of these IPOs Freedberg trade below their IPO price in the year or two after they come out and get repriced.
00:26:32
Yeah, like we've seen before. I think the market's going to need to find a
00:26:36
price. Remember, the share owners in a lot of these companies have held on to these shares for a long period of time
00:26:43
and the valuations are extraordinary. I mean, hundreds of billions of dollars in
00:26:47
market value coming to market liquid for the first time. Some of these investors
00:26:52
dep regardless of whatever their entry price was are going to be looking for liquidity. So there's only so much
00:26:58
capital to absorb those shares on the buy side. Meaning if the buyers and the bid is not there to fulfill all of the
00:27:06
selling then you're going to see the share price decline and the market's
00:27:09
going to find a price. And so I I think this idea that like an IPO is, you know,
00:27:15
just a step in driving the price or value of a company up is a pretty false sense. And I think we'll realize it's
00:27:22
pretty false as some of these IPOs take place because there is so much pent-up selling demand. There is so much value
00:27:27
that's being created. There's going to be so much selling pressure and then
00:27:31
there's going to be very little buying activity on some of these because anyone
00:27:35
that could have bought at scale on the buy side postpublic were already in a lot of these companies pre-public as
00:27:42
private companies and so I don't know who the big buyers are that everyone's
00:27:46
expecting are going to show up. They're probably thinking hey it's going to be
00:27:48
retail retail. Yeah. I mean it's like >> yeah but how much money does retail have
00:27:52
left? I mean you if you look at retail investors they have a certain amount of powder and it's probably deployed. It's
00:27:58
not like they have unlimited places to look for that. And you know, there's some evidence of this. Bloomberg ran an
00:28:04
article on Wednesday. We tape on Thursday, folks. And you get to listen to the pot on Fridays. Open AAI is
00:28:10
falling out of favor with secondary buyers. According to a report, OpenAI investors can't find buyers at the new
00:28:17
$850 billion valuation that Shimoth referenced earlier, investors Bloomberg spoke to are looking to sell $600
00:28:25
million worth of shares. people are looking for liquidity and said they were institutional investors. Anthropic
00:28:32
currently valued at 300 billion is seeing major secondary bids at a $600 billion valuation. So I think Chimoth
00:28:37
what this shows us is you're correct. They're you know OpenAI and Anthropic
00:28:42
are the two next cards. That's your turn in river folks. If SpaceX is the flop
00:28:47
and maybe they're massively overvalued right now. Maybe they're three four 500
00:28:52
million billion dollar companies not trillion dollar companies. And if you look at the amount of revenue 24 billion
00:28:58
for uh open AI at 852 billion that's 35 times price to sales ratio and that is a
00:29:06
absurd price to sales ratio depending on if the growth keeps happening and as you
00:29:10
referenced chimoth what if we are at artificial general intelligence AGI and the moes on these things is dimminimous
00:29:18
or or there is no moat anthropic just got hacked all their secrets are out Somebody transmuted the code into
00:29:27
another language, posted it on GitHub, can't be stopped. I don't know if you
00:29:31
saw that story, Freeberg, but this is kind of mind-blowing. Somebody took the anthropic code, I don't know what it was
00:29:36
written in, and then basically just put it into another language, reposted it. If Anthropic comes and says, "Hey, you
00:29:43
can't do that." Well, that negates their argument, Chimamoth, that they're
00:29:48
allowed to train on other people's data and then spit out a different output. So
00:29:52
this is a very weird moment in time, right? >> It is. I think you're you're bringing up
00:29:57
a bunch of different points, so let me just sort them out in the order that I think is important.
00:30:02
>> Is there a market for open AI at 800 billion? Yes, and there should be. When
00:30:06
I read that press release, my mind was blown. This is like I've never seen a
00:30:11
business like this. And I'd say the same thing of Anthropic. What an incredible thing that both of
00:30:17
these two companies have been able to create. Nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses like
00:30:25
this at this scale. Okay, it's unbelievable. These are trillion dollar companies. They both are. And they both
00:30:34
deserve to be. How profitable they are, I don't know. What their terminal valuation is, I don't know. What will
00:30:41
people pay for at IPO? I don't know. But Nick, I just shared something with you.
00:30:46
These two companies need to get out as quickly as possible. And the reason is every single company that comes after
00:30:54
it, all those companies that you just named, Jason, are not nearly as important and do not need the money
00:30:59
nearly as badly as these guys do. And where will it come from? The specific answer to your question when you look at
00:31:04
this chart is the tech sector PE is going to shrink faster in my opinion than the non- tech PE. And the reason is
00:31:12
because as these companies come out the combination of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, all three are baking an AI
00:31:22
technology that first and foremost will go after the tech sector. It will eliminate and it will cannibalize and it
00:31:30
will erode most of the moes that support this differential trading. So if I were a
00:31:37
betting man, my first bet is as those three companies come out, these software businesses are going to approach the
00:31:44
rest of the non- tech PE. Okay, that's the first step that has to happen. So the rate of change of of the
00:31:51
multiple erosion will basically say to the world, hey, these tech companies are I don't know, I'll buy the first five or
00:31:59
six years of this story, but I'm not buying year 15 of this anymore because these three guys are going to build
00:32:04
something. So that's where the money comes from. That's why I think after
00:32:08
SpaceX, these two guys need to get their act together, file quickly, get out and
00:32:12
just get the money, fortify their balance sheets, and be in a position. >> Everything that happens after that is a
00:32:18
total coin toss because once these three companies are public, I think the blue line will converge to the orange line
00:32:24
and it's going to be nasty. >> Yeah. Freeberg, just looking at this, do
00:32:29
you believe that secondary market is a canary in the coal mine here with Open AI? Because if we we've and we've gone
00:32:35
through this year after year here. These are exceptional businesses. They've
00:32:39
grown incredible. Customers love their products, but the burn is brutal. The circular financing problem is still out
00:32:46
there. Like what's reality here? The and that's going to all come out when these
00:32:50
S1s get filed and they're publicly traded companies and they have quarterly earnings reports. Market share for these
00:32:57
could be flipping. Anthropic and and Gemini, other players coming into the market.
00:33:02
What are your thoughts here on uh anthropic and open AI post the SpaceX IPO? >> Like I said, there's only so much
00:33:11
capital in the world. So, I do think one of the things that's probably being
00:33:15
underestimated at the moment is the liquidity crunch that's ahead for capital intensive technology businesses
00:33:24
given the conflict in the Middle East. I don't think that Qatar and certain Saudi
00:33:29
offices and certain offices in UAE and Oman are as eager as they were or you know have been to provide large slugs of
00:33:40
capital to support these initiatives and remember that capital moves its way through the markets whether it's through
00:33:45
JP Morgan and a loan to Soft Bank which then gets paid to open AAI at the end of
00:33:50
the day there has to be unencumbered debtfree capital that's being provided to these systems.
00:33:55
from somewhere in the world. And if you trace all of it back, like a large chunk
00:33:59
of it has historically in the last couple of years come from Middle East sovereigns and family offices. And I
00:34:05
think that those are likely going to tighten up in the near term. That being the case, there's probably less demand.
00:34:10
I do think that there's a lot of secondary demand coming from family offices in Europe and Singapore, places
00:34:15
like that that that generally have not had great access or early stage access to private companies. But at some point,
00:34:21
there's only so much demand there. So I don't know like how far this is going to
00:34:26
go or when this capital crunch that's going to emerge. I think from the Middle
00:34:29
East I don't think we've really felt the shock wave yet on what's happening
00:34:32
because remember a lot of these Middle East capital commitments were made in the last cycle as LP commitments or
00:34:37
whatever. And you know if they stop if they downscale LP commitments or they stop doing primary and secondary
00:34:44
transactions you know it takes a little bit of time before the market feels that
00:34:48
and then it's like oh the reliable goto are gone and a lot of the big funds the
00:34:52
the mega funds that are out there >> totally >> that have Middle East LPS are gone and
00:34:57
suddenly everyone's going to be like whoa and the shock wave will hit. So let's see it is a risk for the United
00:35:03
States because China I don't think is going to be as challenged. We're so
00:35:07
dependent on Middle East capital. It may be that China has an a capital advantage
00:35:12
actually going into this next phase. >> I mean, and we talked about forcing your
00:35:17
>> come into play here if this Iran thing spirals, god forbid, out of control
00:35:22
>> or gets worse. People could say, you know what, we're going to downscale our
00:35:26
commitments and hey, there's a war, so we don't have to fund. I >> think the markets I think the markets
00:35:30
have shaked that off, Jason. I don't think that they they view this Iran thing as a big thing. I think the big
00:35:34
event risk in the market is is AI real or not real? And if it's real, what are
00:35:39
all of these companies worth? That is the big sort of damices over the stock market.
00:35:43
>> Yeah. All right. Well, that's a good segue, I think, into talking uh a bit
00:35:48
about Iran. We took the week off from it last week and we're going to catch up.
00:35:54
>> By the way, not because we just to be clear, not because we intended to, which
00:35:57
all the comments railed us on, but we literally Jason did a terrible job moderating. It was on the freaking
00:36:02
docket. We were supposed to talk about it. We didn't get to it. He dialed it in
00:36:06
and we went right in. >> He dialed it in. It's clearly my fault. Um, >> he DMV it. He, you know, it's like I'm
00:36:13
just protecting Trump. I'm out here getting cover for Trump's mistakes. >> Yeah.
00:36:18
>> Everybody knows I'm in the pocket of President Trump. >> Take a ticket. Take a ticket. Oh, you
00:36:23
have an issue. Okay. Well, you're issue number 17. >> Trump DM'd me and said, "Can you please
00:36:27
take this off the docket?" I was like, "You got to bust." >> And then you're like, "Oh, sorry. Office
00:36:31
is closed. Come back tomorrow. Today is day 34 of the Iran War slmilitary operation. Trump addressed the nation
00:36:40
Wednesday night for a brisk 18 minutes. Here's a 40 secondond clip. >> We're now totally independent of the
00:36:47
Middle East. And yet, we are there to help. We don't have to be there. We don't need their oil. We don't need
00:36:54
anything they have, but we're there to help our allies. For years, everyone has
00:36:58
said that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. But in the end, those are just words if you're not willing to take
00:37:05
action when the time comes. Our objectives are very simple and clear. We are systematically dismantling the
00:37:12
regime's ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders.
00:37:18
And tonight, I'm pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion.
00:37:24
>> All right, the costs here are mounting. Uh war is a very serious business. 13
00:37:30
American service members have tragically died. Over 200 have been injured. On the
00:37:34
other side of the ledger, 3,500 Iranians have died, including 1,600 civilians and
00:37:39
over 200 children. 1,200 people in Lebanon have died from Israeli strikes. And we now have 50,000 troops deployed
00:37:48
to the Middle East. Chances of a ground invasion are increasing. War has cost $70 billion so far. That's assuming $2
00:37:59
billion a day, which there seems to be consensus on via the Department of War. Pentagon has asked Congress for another
00:38:06
$200 billion. To put that in context, the war in Ukraine was $113 billion in the first
00:38:16
year. This could quickly exceed it when we hit 50 days. This isn't cheap. There
00:38:23
are lots of costs. Here's uh your poly market on a ceasefire. 25% chance of a
00:38:28
ceasefire by the end of April, 47 chance by the end of May. The sharps are thinking this could wrap up, but ground
00:38:35
invasion, which would be just really impactful. I think 63% chance by the end of April, 71 chance by the end of
00:38:47
December. We're going to get into the second order effects, but what do you think, Chimamoth? Uh, this obviously is
00:38:53
super unpopular war. >> I think two things. And the president kind of alluded to one that I think is
00:38:59
very important, which is if you are not energy independent, you are at risk. And
00:39:04
I don't know how many more examples now that world leaders need to be shown to
00:39:09
get their acts together. So if the Ukraine Russian conflict didn't show Europe, then this should show not just
00:39:16
Europe, but the rest of the world. You need to be in control of your own energy infrastructure and energy independence
00:39:23
because stuff happens in the world and you're not always in control or can shape how that stuff
00:39:29
can indirectly or directly affect you. The United States has energy independence. It's an incredible
00:39:35
situation. What was interesting to me is if you look at Europe, you know, they gutted a couple of their energy markets
00:39:43
and they essentially seated control to a combination of very expensive imports and China. They did that in markets like
00:39:54
nuclear where they just went out of it. They did that in things like Nack Gas where again we can debate but where
00:39:59
where did Nordstream 2 go? We don't know. And they did that in things like solar where they just gutted all of the
00:40:04
credits. But what's interesting is they're starting to turn that around. I
00:40:09
think Italy just reintroduced effectively what's called investment tax credits. Spain just did as well. Germany
00:40:16
is restarting nuclear. So if you just look at the the last few months, just that change is incredibly important
00:40:26
because our largest ally Europe should be fundamentally energyindependent so that they preserve complete and total
00:40:34
optionality like we do in how we respond to these situations. That I think is a is a critical thing
00:40:42
that is a positive outcome of what's happening. And then the second Jason, which I think is a huge question mark
00:40:46
and it builds on what Freeberg said before, the Middle Eastern states, specifically the UAE and Saudi, Qatar,
00:40:55
Kuwait, they are our most important financing and banking partner in the future.
00:41:03
And I think we need to see a conclusive end to this war because they need to be in a position to monetize these critical
00:41:10
assets. Because at the same time, if you see these big pools of demand start to become energy independent by
00:41:18
either accelerating nuclear, but I again that's just problematic and slow, but
00:41:22
frankly they're just going to ramp up solar. That's the only way that you can
00:41:25
dispatch energy quickly. I think what that does is it decreases hydrocarbon demand over the long run. That then
00:41:32
decreases the monetization capacity for these countries. So if you put these two
00:41:36
things together, all of these folks in the region want safety, security, and they need a quick
00:41:42
end to this thing now. >> Okay. >> And I think that they're more
00:41:45
incentivized to put boots on the ground, Jason, than America is. That's the point
00:41:48
I was trying to make. Freeberg, let's talk a little bit about fertilizer. You had brought up when we had the start
00:41:56
of the Ukraine war. Hey, this is the bread basket. We could have a massive famine. Thankfully, that was avoided.
00:42:04
There were carveouts for getting wheat and and other crops out of Ukraine, but here we are again with a significant
00:42:13
amount of fertilizer comes out of that region and it's not flowing right now.
00:42:19
Do you have concerns this time around that we could see something similar? >> Fertilizer is made up of three elements.
00:42:26
There's different fertilizers. The one element is N for nitrogen, P for phosphorus, and K for potassium. Ukraine
00:42:33
is the largest producer of the K, the potassium, the pot ash, but the N in fertilizer is nitrogen. And
00:42:43
that is about 60% of what goes into the ground. That's 60 to 65% of global fertilizer is the nitrogen. That's what
00:42:49
really drives agricultural productivity. And we need nitrogen fertilizer to grow
00:42:55
crops everywhere on Earth that we're growing crops to feed people at scale. That nitrogen is primarily made where
00:43:03
natural gas is produced and processed. And the reason is that they use the natural gas as an input to the
00:43:10
production process. They get the the carbon, the hydrogen, the oxygen, and then they compress, remember 70% of our
00:43:16
atmosphere is made up of nitrogen gas. So they compress the nitrogen in the air to 200 times atmospheric pressure, run
00:43:23
it over a electrical current with a metal catalyst, and you break apart the N2. you have just single nitrogen atoms
00:43:30
and then you combine it back and you end up getting ammonia out of the other end.
00:43:35
That's why nitrogen fertilizers are produced where natural gas is processed.
00:43:41
So the Middle East obviously is a massive producer particularly in Qatar of natural gas and that's why so much of
00:43:47
the world's nitrogen fertilizer is made in the Middle East. In fact, about 35%
00:43:52
of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes through the straight of Hormuz, and it
00:43:56
is then shipped to countries around the world that farm and that need it to grow
00:44:00
their crops. The swing producer in the world is China. China historically makes about 15% of the world's nitrogen
00:44:07
fertilizer. And when the war started a few days after it began, China shut down exports of their nitrogen fertilizer.
00:44:14
And so they basically choked out the rest of the world. And so when the straight of Hormuz shut the nitrogen
00:44:19
stopped flowing here you can see the price spike that happened. So as the the war began this is ura. URA is the solid
00:44:26
form of nitrogen fertilizer. So URA was trading at about 350 bucks a ton before the the conflict kind of took off and it
00:44:35
continues to spike up. It reached over $700 a ton in the last two days. And this is really really really impactful.
00:44:43
It's not just like oh the price is double. Number one, there's a supply deficiency. So farmers in places like
00:44:48
Africa and South Asia are not getting the ura that they need to farm. That is going to have a massive follow-on
00:44:55
problem. And in markets where they have access because the price has spiked like
00:45:00
in the United States, our biggest crop is corn. You need about 200 pounds of that ura per acre for corn. And that
00:45:08
cost basically makes you unprofitable. There is no way you can make a profitable crop of corn. The other thing
00:45:14
that China did at the same time is they stopped buying corn. So corn prices would normally spike up and corn prices
00:45:20
have remained low while the input prices have spiked for American farmers. So American farmers are in a real pickle.
00:45:26
Fortunately for this spring planting, which is happening right now, about twothirds of American farmers had
00:45:32
already secured their fertilizer before the this began, but a third did not and they're switching crops typically to
00:45:39
soybeans. But we have a fall planting coming up in a couple of months here and the choke points on production is going
00:45:45
to keep prices very high. In the United States, we make a lot of our own ammonia
00:45:49
at our natural gas facilities in places like Oklahoma and Texas and Wyoming and other places and then it ships directly
00:45:56
to the farms. But the cost is so high because of the global market that it's
00:45:59
going to become very hard for farmers to make a profit. And around the world there are many farmers, millions and
00:46:05
millions of farmers that can't access this fertilizer now. So the choke point
00:46:08
in the straight of Hormuz is turning out to be a real critical global food supply
00:46:12
crisis yet again similar to Ukraine. And remember there was about 400 million people following the Ukraine war
00:46:19
globally that we saw enter into a state of malnourishment. This means more than one year of,200 calories or less per day
00:46:25
for a year. 400 million people after Ukraine. So coming out of this crisis it could be even more severe given the
00:46:33
criticality of nitrogen based fertilizers and the shutdown of the straight. Let me make two more points on
00:46:38
this. You would think, okay, we'll make more nitrogen fertilizer. The facilities
00:46:41
take at least three to five years to fix when they break, which is what just happened in Qatar. That facility got
00:46:47
damaged, the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer. So that is the
00:46:50
largest producer of ura in the world. That's now going to be incapacitated for
00:46:55
3 to 5 years. And if you want to build a new facility, takes about 7 years. All the facilities around the world that
00:47:01
make ura and ammonia these nitrogen fertilizers typically run 24/7 365 at full capacity. There is no downtime
00:47:09
where you can just turn on excess production in the world. So you know the world is very delicate in its balance of
00:47:14
inputs and food production outputs. The whole world has like less than 30 days of food of calories stored up. So as
00:47:21
these kind of supply chain problems start to percolate there's shock waves that start to get felt around the world.
00:47:26
So, it's a pretty serious crisis ahead and it'll take a few months before it'll
00:47:30
be fully realized. In the meantime, US farmers are getting their asses handed to them. They can't make money and China
00:47:36
is using this as a moment for extraordinary leverage over America and taking advantage of the situation by
00:47:42
shutting down exports of their fertilizer and at the same time not buying American production of corn. We
00:47:47
probably need Freedberg to have some sort of resiliency here and address this like we did with pharmaceuticals, PPE,
00:47:54
all these other things. Yeah, we should have some sort of stockpile of fertilizer.
00:47:59
>> Kimat's point is absolutely correct. Natural gas reservoirs exist around the
00:48:03
world and we've been loathed to exploit them or develop them because of the climate change carbon risks and issues.
00:48:13
But I think what we're realizing is that those are luxury beliefs to an extent.
00:48:17
You can only say let's not exploit carbon resources until you hit a shock wave like this and then people are like
00:48:23
wait a second we really do need to have these systems up and running and we need
00:48:26
to have excess capacity and local capacity in the system because single points of failure for the whole world's
00:48:32
food supply is not going to cut it anymore particularly as the world is becoming more fragmented and multipolar
00:48:38
and there's less US policing of the world that's going to happen and so on.
00:48:42
It's going to be very critical that everyone starts to think about doubling down not just on energy production but
00:48:46
some of these other critical inputs like fertilizer and another output just as a
00:48:50
quick side story on that gas production is when you pull that gas out of the ground that's the primary place we find
00:48:57
helium and helium we're all waking up to the fact you know we never really think
00:49:00
about helium we think about kids balloons at birthday parties >> but helium goes into MRI machines helium
00:49:06
goes into semiconductor manufacturing helium goes into mass spec machines that are used in chemical analysis with a lot
00:49:12
applications around the world. Helium is a critical input to medical equipment, to manufacturing equipment, and all of a
00:49:20
sudden, a third of the world's helium coming out of Qatar is not making it out. And so, we're now going to have a
00:49:25
helium supply shock that's going to affect the world. So, we're starting to
00:49:28
wake up to the fact that perhaps these nat gas fields that we've allowed to kind of turn a blind eye and say, "Let
00:49:34
one country exploit them and let them make all the nat gas." The US is actively developing. You know, I went
00:49:39
down and visited that Chenny air facility in Louisiana with Doug Bergam a couple months ago, which was an amazing
00:49:44
site to see where we do all the LG exporting, but the US has extraordinary nat gas reserves. So do many other
00:49:52
places in the world that have failed to take advantage of developing them. And I
00:49:56
think we're realizing the criticality of doing so at this moment. >> Looking at this, I think we'll have
00:50:01
Trump pivot extremely soon. I've brought this chart up now. This will be the
00:50:06
fourth time. >> Is that your prediction, Jal? think he's going to wrap this up? I mean,
00:50:09
>> he's 100% going to wrap this up and I and and I can show why. I mean, this
00:50:13
just basically look at the history of this. You guys remember I brought up this chart with Trump's net approval
00:50:21
rating and you you look at how this has changed over the three times I brought it up. First time in June last year,
00:50:28
then October. Uh, and again, I'm going to bring it up here. the stuff with ICE and, you know, the
00:50:37
Epstein files and just going right down the line of unpopular decisions. Trump's
00:50:42
net approval rating now has just plummeted to -17. This is the least popular he's ever been. And he's had to
00:50:51
pivot here. Pam Bondi at the time we are uh recording this as I predicted on a previous episode that
00:50:58
Christine Gnome and Pam Bondi would be fired uh or in I guess Trump's terms he
00:51:04
likes to uh get them a new job and give them a window seat. This is absolutely going to result in a quick pivot. Who
00:51:13
knows what the downstream effects are but the inflation three handle is coming back. According to Poly Market, gas is
00:51:20
over $4 a gallon. And then, you know, it's easy to mock like we did earlier these like no kings protests, but 8
00:51:26
million people came out for that. That's a large number. And if you look at the
00:51:31
poly market for what's going to happen in the midterms, 51% chance now that the
00:51:35
Dems take the Senate, 86% that they take the House. And you know what you're
00:51:40
going to take from that is >> wait, sorry, Poly Market is now showing the Democrats winning both houses.
00:51:46
>> Yeah, pull it up, Nick. significant chance of that. And you know when this
00:51:49
happens, how much money is being bet on that? Let's just see. >> 51% they take the Senate, 86% they take
00:51:55
the House, and four and a half million $4.5 million on this. >> Oh gosh. >> Yeah.
00:52:01
>> I tend to I tend to filter how seriously I take Poly Market just based on the
00:52:05
total quantum, but this is a big number. >> Yeah. And and I you know, listen, I this
00:52:10
is not me trying to dunk on Trump and my personal beliefs. I think when you lose
00:52:15
Tucker, when you lose Megan Kelly, when you lose Joe Rogan, you know, and people
00:52:20
are looking at who Trump surrounded him with, there's really just two groups.
00:52:24
You have these super highly qualified people, Bessant, Lutnik, obviously, David Saxs. You got you got really
00:52:30
highly qualified people, JD, you know, who who I think the world of. I think these people are great. But then he put
00:52:36
some people in positions that I think weren't up to the task. Pam Bondi, Christie, I'll put Steven Miller and
00:52:43
Cash in that as well. It's my personal belief in that case. And those people
00:52:47
have not served him well. And they need to get this presidency back on track because what's going to happen is we're
00:52:53
going to have two more years of impeachments and investigations and the whole thing's going to be derided. And
00:52:59
and we really need to start thinking about what who's making these decisions.
00:53:03
Who who made this decision to go into Iran and why? who made these decisions to have ICE go into Minnesota and why?
00:53:10
And I think a lot of it goes back to Steven Miller. I got mocked a bit here on the pod for like blaming him, but you
00:53:17
can correlate Steven Miller, Christy Gnome, Cash Patel, and Pam Bondi with all of the downside of this presidency
00:53:24
and the plummeting ratings. Trump's going to need to clear house. He's cleared out two or four. I predict he'll
00:53:30
clear out the other two and get great leadership in there and turn this presidency around because listen, this
00:53:36
is going to be socialism now and AOC is going to win. This is going to cause massive chaos if he doesn't get out of
00:53:42
Iran and do it soon. Just my handicapping of the situation. Uh Hegath, I'm not so sure. I'm not sure if
00:53:50
I uh you know what I think of him yet, but you know, we don't have information
00:53:54
on why Trump did this. That's going to be the next shoe to drop >> on why why he did it. Freeberg, I think,
00:53:59
you know, this is the point I made the second this war happened or military operation. I mean, let's let's call it
00:54:06
what it is. This is a war. When you kill the top hundred people, it's a war. I
00:54:10
said, I don't have the information of why he did this. Like, he might have information, Freeberg, that we don't
00:54:15
have that made this an absolute must for us to do, >> but we haven't revealed that
00:54:20
information. He hasn't explained it well to the American people. I think that's
00:54:23
why the ratings are, >> you know, and I don't want to make the ratings like a TV ratings. his
00:54:28
popularity is getting crushed here. The way this was explained to Americans, and
00:54:33
again, I'm not inserting my position here. I'm just talking about the disconnect right now, is that Operation
00:54:38
Midnight Hammer was supposed to uh have just decimated this. So, why did we do this again? And we don't have the
00:54:45
information. This is why I try to stay humble in this and say like, what information does Trump have of that we
00:54:53
don't have? Some people seem to think Chamath this was overconfidence. There's obviously this debate. Did we
00:54:59
get baited into this by Israel and get pushed into it and is he a Manurion candidate etc. I that's above my pay
00:55:06
grade too. I I don't have any information on that. I'm not in the CIA. It's hard to be a an armchair critic on
00:55:13
this stuff in both senses. Like I think it's hard to say, hey, this guy got talked into doing this. Israel
00:55:19
manipulated him into it. You know, sorry. It's easy to say that. It's also
00:55:22
easy to say, "Hey, we should go get rid of the country that's made all the
00:55:25
nuclear weapons." Both of those are easy to say without all of the texture of the
00:55:29
relationships and the details and what really went on. None of us know is the truth.
00:55:33
>> That's literally the point, you know, I've been trying to make how do the same
00:55:38
thing with Venezuela. Like, how do we know? We don't have any intelligence to
00:55:43
we're not in the CIA. We don't have any of these insights that MSAD or the
00:55:47
Israeli intelligence services have. How do we know how this was going to go down? And you know, that's all going to
00:55:52
come out, I think, when this all gets investigated. Yeah. >> I think Trump is and has been the most
00:55:59
consistent anti-war president of modern history. >> Yes. >> And I think that it's fair to say that
00:56:06
he has and has had and has demonstrated enormous restraint and has the highest bar thus far of folks for actually
00:56:15
getting into conflict. So I do think that what Freeberg says is very important. There's just so much we don't
00:56:21
know and I think that he doesn't want to stain his legacy with a typical American,
00:56:31
you know, war. >> Yeah. >> He doesn't want that. I don't think he
00:56:35
doesn't need to be anywhere near that. So there is obviously stuff that we don't know. I still think that there's
00:56:42
a short-term problem which is not just the threat that Iran poses to Israel, but there's a threat that Iran poses to
00:56:50
the rest of the Middle Eastern community. >> That neighborhood is a complicated
00:56:54
place. There was an interview that NBS did on Saudi television. Nick, maybe maybe you can find it. It's in Arabic,
00:57:02
but there's a good version of it that I saw with subtitles. And if you hear the MBS's telling of
00:57:11
what the Iranian threat is, it's not dissimilar to how the Israelis would characterize the threat. And so I think
00:57:20
it's important to understand that unpredictable actors should not be given an opportunity to
00:57:27
have a cataclysmic weapon that can just completely destroy the earth as we know it. That just doesn't make sense. And I
00:57:36
think if you can intervene to prevent that, we're now aware of the damages of
00:57:40
what this can do to enough of a degree where there should be enough of nuclear disarmament from here on out.
00:57:47
>> The six, seven, eight, nine countries that have it. Okay, there's all kinds of
00:57:51
reasons why maybe we could have remade those decisions over the intervening 70 years.
00:57:56
>> Maybe there's some that we never should have let have it. The Pakistan India
00:57:59
thing is a good example of one. But we are where we are and I think we can all agree no more country should
00:58:06
incrementally get access to this thing. >> Absolutely not. And this regime
00:58:09
specifically believes that anybody who is not part of this specific religion needs to die and the whole
00:58:18
>> Islam needs to be reunited in order to take on anybody who's not part of a
00:58:23
version of radical Islam. like it's a it's a if this is a religious lunacy in
00:58:29
that country. I think everybody else should be murdered if they don't convert.
00:58:33
>> I think it's important to say that the overwhelming majority of Sunnis and the
00:58:37
overwhelming majority of Shia are peaceful observant people. There are fringes in every religion and in
00:58:44
specifically this I think the most important thing is to not take your word or anybody else's word. I do think it's
00:58:50
important to listen to somebody like NBS because I think it's the lived experience of you know having to run a
00:58:56
country in that neighborhood and what it means and I think what you see is as you
00:58:59
as you're articulating many layers of complexity that again I think that most
00:59:05
of us in the west have zero appreciation for all of this goes to in the short term
00:59:13
I think that they forced themselves into a corner I think we can go back and relitigate Why did Obama let him out?
00:59:21
That was a really, really stupid idea. We probably should have kept our thumb on the scale and had them close to
00:59:28
teetering on economic insolveny. That's the only thing that has kept them in
00:59:32
check. They veered wildly away the minute we let them out of the disarmament agreements that we had.
00:59:40
But we are where we are. We got to put the genie back in the bottle. And we cannot look to other countries and
00:59:47
tolerate this idea that they also want to build the kinds of weapons that can literally destroy the face of the planet
00:59:53
as we know it. It's a non-starter. And then the second order effect is how do
00:59:58
we make sure that folks that are participating in all of this broader seeds of sewing chaos, how do we hem
01:00:07
them in and how do we create a more reasonable world order? And I think that the second order effects, and I've said
01:00:14
this before, kind of bring this back to China. And I think a world where it's
01:00:18
bipolar, where it's the United States and China roughly as the two leading statesmen of the world, is probably the
01:00:28
Nash equilibrium here. >> And so I think getting China in a position where they need to do a deal.
01:00:36
And remember I said this, the worst thing that could happen for China was the president delaying the summit. And
01:00:42
here we are. We're now it's delayed for six weeks. It's going to go into midbay.
01:00:46
If you think the straight of hormuse numbers as it relates to energy prices in Europe or anywhere else are crazy,
01:00:53
look at what's happening inside of China right now. It is a no bueno situation. And so in
01:01:01
May, if we can reestablish a set of operating criteria that keeps normaly in check,
01:01:08
no more of this rapid random expansion everywhere where the Chinese are trying to build bases in near us and you know
01:01:15
now we have to have a point of view near them. We don't need any of that. So I think if we can use this as an
01:01:22
opportunity to deescalate, I think we should. >> Yeah, that's we we seem to have moved
01:01:26
from I mean I think this is the question. There's a a doctrine, I don't know if you guys heard this one before,
01:01:31
of mowing the lawn, which is the Israelis view of Hezbollah, Hamas, and even Iran, which is just, hey, we have
01:01:39
to take away their progress, the last 30 or 40% of their progress towards nuclear
01:01:44
bombs, and we just do that consistently and we contain them. This has tipped over into regime change. And so, I think
01:01:50
that's the wild card that none of us can predict what happens from this point
01:01:54
forward. I I don't know how you leave Iran in this state if they're going to
01:01:59
take over the the strait uh and charge everybody a dollar a barrel. Is that going to be tenable? Are they going to
01:02:04
keep blowing stuff up? This is uncharted territory. Um and yeah, and very high stakes. President Trump also reiterated
01:02:14
the US doesn't need Middle East oil and that Europeans should go straight to the
01:02:18
strait and just take it. He said that the straight will open naturally because quote why do we want to be able why are
01:02:25
you always focusing on the straits of Hormuz Jason? >> Why am I I mean you're focus on the
01:02:30
straight because you're always overlooking the gays of Hormuz as an example.
01:02:34
>> That's true that and the non-binaries of Hormuz they all count. >> Well, why is it all about the straits of
01:02:39
Hormuz all the time? Listen, it's I don't want to get cancelled here because
01:02:43
I'm talking I don't know the pronouns to use for these straits hormuz. But yes,
01:02:48
the straits in Hormude. I don't think you're allowed to be gay in Hormuz. I
01:02:52
think you have to keep that pretty quiet there, don't you? That was the greatest
01:02:54
clip ever. If you don't know what we're referring to, it's a viral clip of
01:02:58
>> It's incredible >> of purple-haired people. No, not purple. This was a young Indian lady.
01:03:05
>> Uh, and she we all thought the same thing. Indians are so smart. How? What
01:03:09
happened to her? What happened? She's the They found an Indian who didn't
01:03:15
understand >> the one They found the one dumb Indian. Yes, exactly. >> Oh god. It's
01:03:22
>> They found her. >> They found her. This is She's been absolutely I mean,
01:03:27
>> isn't it a little bit homophobic that was so focused on the straits of her
01:03:32
moose and not the gays of her moves? >> I agree. Yes, for sure. >> Why do you think are willing to leave
01:03:36
the gays of her moves behind? I think it's just um history. >> Which Ivy League do you think she went
01:03:43
to? Brown. 100%. Brown or Columbia? >> Oh yeah, that's that's a good call. I
01:03:47
would say Colombia. She Yeah, she might have gone to Vasser actually. I think that would might have been her safety
01:03:52
school. That's the best >> not Bora not Borat. Um Bruno impersonation I've heard in a long time.
01:04:00
Saw Freebug. Why are you so gay? Do you think the shreds of horm are you are you
01:04:06
making your potatoes non-binary? It was like literally Zabuno. You got 10 minutes. Jamath, you want to
01:04:16
do your uh Bitcoin thing or you want to just break? The Bitcoin thing was interesting because I think in the last
01:04:21
couple of months, what we've started to see is an increasing amount of research that says
01:04:29
that the scheduled eventuality of a quantum chip, a functional chip, is probably not 25 or 30 years away.
01:04:44
It's probably now in the next five to seven years if I had to guess. >> And I think that because that event
01:04:52
horizon has moved in in these next 5 to seven years for those that follow Bitcoin and care about it. My only
01:05:01
advice on this topic is that the leaders of the Bitcoin ecosystem need to organize themselves and need to
01:05:09
make sure that they have an answer to the question of is this stuff quantum resistant? Because if the answer is no,
01:05:15
they are a very visible and obvious honeypot. Now there is the answer that then a lot
01:05:21
of the Bitcoin community gives which is well everything is screwed. And my only advice is possibly, but if a
01:05:29
non-state actor gets a hold of quantum technology that can defeat crypto as we know it today,
01:05:37
SHA 256, you know, ECDS, like the elliptical curve stuff, the run-of-the-mill stuff that we all rely
01:05:42
on, a non-state actor's incentive will first be to drain the obvious honeypotss and
01:05:50
then tell everybody that it's broken so that then everything goes to sh, all the
01:05:54
prices go to zero, and then they have all the money and then they can buy stuff. That would be the sequence of
01:05:58
events if you were a non-state actor. So, yes, you're right. The banks get hacked. Yes, you're right. All this
01:06:03
other stuff goes kaput. But I think you first go and you exploit the obvious places. And I think crypto
01:06:11
is the most obvious honeypot in a world where you can defeat encryption. Now, in
01:06:16
fairness, the crypto community, this was much, much earlier, had to deal with this. They had to migrate from different
01:06:22
encryption schemes in the early parts of Bitcoin and they were able to self-organize.
01:06:28
The difficulty here is you're talking about a big technological lift. You're
01:06:31
talking about all the wallets being rearchitected. You're talking about all the transactional flows, all the
01:06:36
processing nodes. These are complicated things that need to happen. And I would just tell the crypto community, you have
01:06:42
5 to seven years to get your [ __ ] in order. >> That's it. Freeberg, quantum computing,
01:06:48
just generally speaking, you feel it's going to have a major impact in the short term. Do you think it's actually
01:06:54
going to become viable in the midterm? Where do you think about it? Because it's always been 10 years out, but it
01:07:02
feels like we're making some progress. >> Yeah, there's a lot that's changed. I
01:07:05
mean, so the the primary mechanism of modern encryption standards uh relates to factoring primes of an integer.
01:07:15
discovering the prime factors of an integer would give you the ability to theoretically crack
01:07:22
encryption. There was an algorithm that was theorized by a guy named Peter Shore. I think I talked about this on a
01:07:27
prior episode back in 1994 called Shore's algorithm today. It's kind of the commonly well-known model for how
01:07:33
you could do this. And it's a you could watch a YouTube video on it. There's
01:07:36
some YouTube videos that explain it pretty clearly. Takes a bit of time to understand it. And then a couple years
01:07:42
ago, I think in 2023, there was another computer scientist named Oded Regv from NYU who published another paper
01:07:52
that showed a faster different approach to Shor's algorithm. It was an improvement on Shor's algorithm that
01:07:58
basically reduced the number of quantum operations required to factor a large integer significantly. So there's kind
01:08:06
of >> Yeah, we sorry, we went from 28 million of those operations down to 500,000.
01:08:11
Yeah. And so there's this a lot of work going on right now even before we have
01:08:15
industrial scale quantum computers. A lot of work going on in quantum computing theory and building models and
01:08:23
algorithms and a lot of this is rooted in in pure mathematics and statistics and whatnot. That work is making
01:08:29
progress and building better algorithms even before the compute comes online. And then there's this separate set of
01:08:34
things that you can track. But you know the market if you want to trust the market is betting that we are within
01:08:42
spitting distance of quantum computers reaching an industrial scale at this moment. So those two things intersect at
01:08:48
some moment in the near term where you have algorithms that are low demand, low latency that can crack modern encryption
01:08:56
standards and then the computing comes online and someone is going to execute. The the real thing is what do you do
01:09:03
about it? There's a whole bunch of research that's been going on for 20 plus years on quantum algorithms,
01:09:09
quantum encryption standards. And so the to Chimat's point, these things exist.
01:09:15
It's just a heavy lift and so there's going to be this heavy lift probably,
01:09:19
you know, pretty good business to be made in the next couple of years and uh all of the changes are going to need to
01:09:25
happen across all encryption standards across the whole internet across how we do communications and so on. In a crazy
01:09:30
way, Freeberg, crypto is in the same place as all these software socks. Meaning, if AGI and ASI are real, these
01:09:37
software companies are not what we thought they were. >> Yeah. >> If Quantum is real, a bunch of these
01:09:42
crypto projects are not what we thought they were. And so you can't have both,
01:09:46
guys. You got to choose. >> Pick one. >> Yeah. >> All right, everybody. This is Ben.
01:09:53
>> Oh, hey. We listen. Um, you know, I have an incredible EA >> executive assistant.
01:10:00
>> It's really been like, you know, everybody talks about like agents,
01:10:02
agents, agents, agents, and this was the pre- agent agent. You know, my my EAS averaged around
01:10:12
188 to 200k a year and then >> people right now their heads are exploding in middle America.
01:10:18
>> Let's tell the truth. I was paying 188 to $200,000 a year. They were wonderful.
01:10:22
Okay. >> Right. >> And then I Jason was like, "Try this. Try this thing called Athena." Athena.
01:10:28
Athena. I'm like, "What is it?" So, I called the guys and they're like, "Yeah,
01:10:30
we have these really well-trained folks. They're like geniuses that work in the
01:10:36
Philippines. It's 3,000 a month and we're building all this tooling and so
01:10:40
as all these agents get better and all these AIs get better, they'll get the
01:10:43
advantage of that. I said, "Okay, I'll give it a try." This is the first time
01:10:47
I've had a male assistant. His name is Lei. Lay's fabulous. He's a math grad,
01:10:51
math and computer science in the Philippines. >> Okay. >> And he's excellent. I love Lei, too. Uh,
01:10:59
somebody just put it in the chat. I love Le from Nick. Yeah, Nick. Nick, you love
01:11:02
>> Lay coming to NBC this fall. >> These guys are incredible. They do
01:11:06
everything for me. It's like the most incredible hack and arbitrage I've ever
01:11:11
seen. Then now then I can direct a bonus delay at the end of the year, which is great because then it allows me to feel
01:11:17
like I'm giving him really, you know, good support. He works my hours from the
01:11:22
Philippines. Have not looked back. Go Athena. >> Yeah, that's great. >> I I I use it as well. I was the first
01:11:29
investor. >> You were the first You were the How many Athenas? You have one or two? I have
01:11:33
one. two for a while. >> I think I made a second one >> and uh then that person moved on.
01:11:39
>> You split it between like work and personal or no? >> Yeah, it's work and personal. As an
01:11:43
example, like there's an incredible bakery where I live uh like out in Dripping Springs, uh called Abby Jane
01:11:50
Bakery. They don't take orders, but every Thursday, uh my Athena assistant calls at 8 a.m., asks them what's on the
01:11:58
menu, cuz they change the menu every week. And then they send me the menu. I order
01:12:04
the bakeries. >> And then he calls an Uber crier to pick it up and drop it off cuz they're not on
01:12:08
Door Dash or Uber. It's just a stupid example of something that made our lives
01:12:12
incredible to have the best bakery in all of Austin in the house every weekend for the girls and everything. And um
01:12:19
>> everyday problems. Yeah, everyday problems. >> Anyway, it's it's a silly example, but I
01:12:24
was having to go make that run and I did it every like fourth or fifth week as a
01:12:27
treat. Now it's every week. So you just look at what you're doing. The other
01:12:31
thing we're doing is they've been able to we we had Americans who were researchers
01:12:38
sorting through the inbound applications from founders. We were able to put an Athena assistant on that and then define
01:12:44
it and then we they're learning how to use OpenClaw. So the Athena OpenClaw merger is kind of happening in real
01:12:50
time. >> Yeah. No, I have I have Lei doing a bunch of advanced tasks that I typically
01:12:54
wouldn't give to my EA and then he also deals with sort of just the more practical day-to-day tasks, scheduling,
01:13:00
all that stuff. Anyways, it's been it's been an incredible eye opening thing
01:13:03
because it sets a very good example where, you know, you can be cost effective and still get your work done.
01:13:10
Um, and it was really bothering me actually because like the the amount of cost inflation for that role because I
01:13:17
don't think I've ever needed an EA. I'll just be honest, I'm going to put it out
01:13:20
there. I think I've always needed an AA and I would title them differently and
01:13:25
sometimes I would call you know I' I mean I've said this before but like you
01:13:28
know even like roles like chief of staff they just don't make sense like the
01:13:31
chief of staff should be the second most powerful person in the world because they work for the president of the
01:13:35
United States. >> Everybody else should not have a chief of staff >> in my opinion. Okay. It's um it's a
01:13:41
major unlock and the problem is we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes
01:13:45
and it's just people don't want to take the EA or the administrative assistant
01:13:49
position in America. They just don't. There's they want to do something higher
01:13:53
up the stack, but the people in the Philippines, you know, they do want that job.
01:13:56
>> Lay is crushing. I love Lei. >> R.J. is my guy. And yeah, first >> Oh, you got a guy, too?
01:14:02
>> I got a guy, too. And he is also very technical. Uh so anyway, shout out to
01:14:06
Athena. >> Shout out to Athena. Thank you, guys. Thank you. Awesome. Yeah, Freedberg, I
01:14:11
know you're making great progress. You showed me some pictures of potatoes from
01:14:15
Ohio. Um, how's that going? >> Shipping seed this week to farmers all over North America. So, we're getting
01:14:21
going. >> Are you sending seed to our friend Roger the Dirt Farmer? >> He is his son. Yeah, he's
01:14:27
>> That's so great. >> Dirt Roger. >> I love him. >> Roger the dirt farmer is a phenomenal
01:14:32
poker player. He and Keading often play in the game together. >> How'd they do? a couple weeks ago they
01:14:37
came up and visited me the next day. >> Both of those two goofballs ran over the
01:14:41
game. It's so frustrating. It's frustrating playing with Keing. Roger is
01:14:44
much more of a tag, you know, a tight aggressive player. So, it's no picnic. There's no
01:14:50
free lunch when both of those two guys are in the game. And then on top of that, you know, Helm Youth [ __ ] Robbo,
01:14:55
it's like it's not a murder. >> It's murderers row. >> I got I made a late trip to the valley.
01:15:00
I'm like, "Hey, Chimath. Oh, Jason's in town. I get to play." >> Chimat's like, "Uh, I got some bad news
01:15:05
for you. you're no longer on the list and I filled the game up plus two. So I
01:15:11
squeak into the game. I run up a quick 20 25 dimek skis and then helm youth. Passive aggressive Helm Youuth who
01:15:20
cannot handle the fact that I'm more famous than him now. It's just totally
01:15:23
tweaked him that Chimoth and I than you Ray Burke are so much more famous than him. He's broken his brain. He's like,
01:15:31
"Uh, okay. Uh, car dealer. car dealer. You're supposed to have a seat and Jay
01:15:35
Cal doesn't. And I literally just doubled up at that point. Jamal's like,
01:15:39
"Okay, I guess you could book the win, Jay. Cal," because, you know, it's like
01:15:42
poor taste to double up and then leave. >> How much did you win? 40, 50k? >> It was only like 25 times. It was, you
01:15:47
know, it's like I used my Yeah. >> Hey, Chimath, we're here at the end of
01:15:52
the show. I just wanted to make sure people know that the liquidity event that we're hosting, uh, you can go to
01:15:58
allin.com/events, has sold out and we've started a wait list. So, this is the
01:16:02
quickest we've ever sold out. >> I asked Kimber and Lisa to try to find
01:16:07
another 100 seats. I think there's like $7.7 trillion of money that want to attend. We can't
01:16:16
get everybody in. So, we're trying to get everybody together. We announced Bill Aman and Andre Carpathy last week.
01:16:21
>> Incredible. >> We're going to do an Irisone like pitch competition. There's like four whisbang
01:16:28
hot >> fun. Explain what that is for folks who don't know. Yeah, >> I know a bunch of these guys, but four
01:16:33
of them in particular are running super hot right now. Like taking 50 million, run it up to a
01:16:39
billion to three billion. They're just ripping. And uh they're going to go on
01:16:44
stage and they're going to give us their best ideas pitch and the three of us
01:16:47
plus I think as many of the guests that can do it, we'll vote and then maybe we can even
01:16:53
publish these ideas so that folks can can try to follow them. >> They can vet them, right? It's like a
01:16:59
really brave thing to do to get on stage and say, "Hey, I'm making this bet."
01:17:02
Like that's like >> that was great. I did it four times. >> I mean, I just spanked it, but
01:17:07
>> hopefully these guys can do the same thing. But listen, we have a natural
01:17:10
resources pitch. We have something in healthcare. We have something in tech. We have something in
01:17:14
>> genius. >> It's great. It's like all the big categories. We have something in crypto.
01:17:17
So, it's you're going to get every shade of every whippy big alpha market. By the way, you created a
01:17:26
bit of a storm on the interwebs with your towel mention in the uh uh Jensen interview.
01:17:32
>> I just asked Jensen a question. I'm not long towel. He'd redirected it to
01:17:35
something which is folding at home, which is I think if you don't know it, you should look it up, but it's how you
01:17:40
can allocate compute to helping solve health problems. The point is these open source projects or these distributed
01:17:45
compute projects are the future. The real question is what is the architecture and the incentives? None of
01:17:50
us knows that. >> Yeah. >> But man, I think it's so important. And
01:17:54
then all these goons >> went crazy. >> Went crazy. >> Well, I mean, the reason is because I
01:18:00
did place a bet on TA like a couple of weeks ago. I went public with hey, yeah, I've got a small bet here because I
01:18:06
think these subnetss are fascinating. >> You're not I mean, it's like I might be
01:18:11
five or $600,000. A tiny bet. >> You're syndicate maxing. >> No, I did it myself. I did it myself. I
01:18:17
made a small bet on T because I watched Exactly. What >> this [ __ ] is syndicate maxing? I'm
01:18:23
it's not I'm not [ __ ] maxing here, but I am certainly not doing any introspection. I am just doing deals on
01:18:30
great founders and companies. >> Andre has been rage tweeting about this guy that he watches
01:18:36
>> a genius >> who posts these videos about [ __ ] maxing. >> Yes,
01:18:39
>> I watched the videos. It's incredible. This guy, what is the guy's name? I
01:18:43
don't know what the hell. >> I don't know. But he goes on his back
01:18:45
deck. He's got a Weber grill. Pops out a cigar and he says, "Listen, it doesn't
01:18:50
matter." That may be the most incredible contribution. >> That's the most incredible contribution
01:18:55
Andre may be making to culture and society in America. Not the browser. >> He found this guy. I encourage you,
01:19:01
Nick, find the video, post the links. This guy is incredible >> because you're overthinking it, folks.
01:19:08
Just enjoy your life and work hard and don't think it through because look what
01:19:14
happened to Freeberg. He started ruminating. >> Love you, boys. >> Don't ruminate. Just go sell software
01:19:20
and go make better potatoes. Freeberg, no more ruminating and therapy for you. Freeberg, come on the program anytime.
01:19:26
Mark and >> [ __ ] Max with us here on the Allin. >> Love you boys. Bye now.
01:19:33
>> We'll let David >> We open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.
01:19:44
>> Love you. Queen of Besties are gone. >> That is my dog taking notice your
01:19:57
driveway. >> Oh man, my appetiter will meet you. >> We should all just get a room and just
01:20:04
have one big huge orgy cuz they're all just useless. >> It's like this like sexual tension that
01:20:09
they just need to release somehow. >> Wet your feet. Wet your feet. >> Your feet.
01:20:16
>> That's going to be good. We need to get Mercury's already. I'm going all in.