00:00:00
These conversations aren't always easy,
00:00:02
but nonetheless, they are important. So,
00:00:04
every single year, Professor Ian Bremer,
00:00:07
who's one of the world's leading
00:00:08
political scientists, produces this risk
00:00:11
report, and it highlights the top 10
00:00:14
biggest risks that everybody should be
00:00:15
thinking about. And today, he's going to
00:00:18
talk to me about the three that matter
00:00:20
the most. So, he predicts that a US
00:00:22
political revolution is on its way. the
00:00:25
US has become the biggest driver of
00:00:28
geopolitical uncertainty in the world
00:00:31
and in my view Trump will fail.
00:00:33
>> And he also says that the other thing
00:00:35
everybody needs to be talking about and
00:00:37
aware of is what's really playing out
00:00:39
with AI behind the scenes.
00:00:40
>> They created a model which is so
00:00:42
powerful that they couldn't release it
00:00:45
because it would have been an immediate
00:00:47
systemic risk to the global economy and
00:00:49
our security and artificial intelligence
00:00:52
is eating its users. and we can talk
00:00:55
about that.
00:00:56
>> And lastly, I want to end on a point of
00:00:58
optimism. Can we take this craziness and
00:01:01
turn it into a utopia with realistic
00:01:03
solutions?
00:01:05
This is super interesting to me. My team
00:01:07
given me this report to show me how many
00:01:08
of you that watch this show subscribe.
00:01:10
And some of you have told us according
00:01:11
to this that you are unsubscribed from
00:01:13
the channel randomly. So, favor to ask
00:01:15
all of you. Please could you check right
00:01:17
now if you've hit the subscribe button
00:01:18
if you are a regular viewer of the show
00:01:20
and you like what we do here. We're
00:01:21
approaching quite a significant landmark
00:01:23
on this show in terms of a subscriber
00:01:24
number. So, if there was one simple free
00:01:27
thing that you could do to help us, my
00:01:29
team, everyone here to keep this show
00:01:31
free, to keep it improving year over
00:01:33
year and week over week, it is just to
00:01:34
hit that subscribe button and to double
00:01:36
check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll
00:01:37
ever ask of you. Do we have a deal? If
00:01:39
you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do.
00:01:41
I'll make sure every single week, every
00:01:43
single month, we fight harder and harder
00:01:45
and harder and harder to bring you the
00:01:46
guests and conversations that you want
00:01:47
to hear. I've stayed true to that
00:01:49
promise since the very beginning of the
00:01:50
Dio and I will not let you down. Please
00:01:53
help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get
00:01:55
on with the show.
00:02:03
Ian Bremer, what is this document that I
00:02:07
have in front of me here?
00:02:09
>> This is our top risk report. We put it
00:02:11
out at the beginning of every year. try
00:02:14
to help people around the world
00:02:16
understand the risk environment
00:02:19
globally.
00:02:20
>> So for the last 30 years your firm has
00:02:23
been trying to understand the world to
00:02:25
help make better decisions based on the
00:02:27
big picture of what's happening
00:02:29
geopolitically.
00:02:30
>> Yeah.
00:02:31
>> And every year your firm releases this
00:02:33
top risk report.
00:02:34
>> The 2026 one appears to be pretty
00:02:37
prophetic because a lot of things that
00:02:38
you list as the top risks are playing
00:02:40
out before our eyes. For anyone that
00:02:42
hasn't read this report, what are the
00:02:45
most important subjects? You wrote this
00:02:47
in January. We're now sat here in April,
00:02:49
I believe.
00:02:50
>> What are the most important subjects of
00:02:52
the top 10 risks that you think we
00:02:53
should talk about today? I think that
00:02:55
there are three that are really big. Um,
00:02:58
the first is that the United States has
00:03:02
become the biggest driver of risk, the
00:03:06
biggest driver of geopolitical
00:03:08
uncertainty in the world. And we see
00:03:11
that with the tariffs. We see that with
00:03:14
Venezuela. We see it with Greenland. We
00:03:17
see it with Iran. I mean, if there was
00:03:20
that level of uncertainty in a smaller
00:03:23
political system, and that happens all
00:03:24
the time, we wouldn't care as much
00:03:26
because the global impact would not
00:03:27
matter. But everyone out there is
00:03:29
affected by even small changes in the
00:03:31
United States. Suddenly, big changes in
00:03:33
the United States. The Americans are
00:03:34
saying, "We no longer want to play by
00:03:36
the rules that we set up historically.
00:03:39
We don't want the free trade system that
00:03:42
we put together. We don't want to be the
00:03:45
global policeman that is paying for the
00:03:48
collective security. We don't want the
00:03:51
open borders that used to welcome so
00:03:53
many people from around the world. We
00:03:55
want a very different set of rules. It's
00:03:58
the American system is not being
00:04:00
challenged by the Chinese saying we
00:04:01
don't want the Americans themselves and
00:04:03
the leadership are saying we refuse to
00:04:05
be the leader that we used to be.
00:04:07
>> So that's number one. Yeah, that is
00:04:08
number one.
00:04:09
>> And this is a critical risk.
00:04:10
>> That is a critical risk. That's but it's
00:04:11
the most important without any question.
00:04:14
>> And again, I say critical in terms of it
00:04:17
is happening right now. It is
00:04:19
overwhelmingly likely. It's
00:04:21
overdetermined. Um and the impact is
00:04:24
massive. So there's no way you could
00:04:25
look at the geopolitical order today and
00:04:28
not say this is the most important thing
00:04:30
that is not just driving headlines but
00:04:33
that's creating real movement in how the
00:04:36
global economy works, how global
00:04:38
politics works, global security,
00:04:40
everything is driven by this change.
00:04:42
>> And what's the second one?
00:04:44
>> The second one is the big question of
00:04:48
how the second most powerful country in
00:04:50
the world is responding to all of that.
00:04:53
Now we in the top risks piece talked
00:04:57
about overpowered. Overpowered being the
00:05:00
global energy dynamic. How China has
00:05:04
been working to build the most effective
00:05:08
electric vehicles all over the world at
00:05:11
scale and the batteries all over the
00:05:14
world at scale and the critical minerals
00:05:16
in rare earths for decades now. not just
00:05:19
having access so they can exploit them,
00:05:21
but also so that they can reprocess
00:05:24
them.
00:05:24
>> For anyone that doesn't know what
00:05:25
critical minerals are,
00:05:26
>> Yeah.
00:05:27
>> and how important they are to our
00:05:29
everyday lives, could you give us some
00:05:30
color there?
00:05:31
>> Sure. We're talking about all of these
00:05:34
things that you take out of the ground,
00:05:36
whether it's lithium, antimony,
00:05:39
>> which is in all these devices,
00:05:40
>> in every device, in your car battery,
00:05:44
it's in your missile systems and your
00:05:47
advanced weaponry that keeps you safe at
00:05:51
home or allows you to go to war against
00:05:53
somebody. I mean, you can't have an
00:05:55
advanced economy without critical
00:05:57
minerals and rare earths. and and the
00:06:00
Chinese have been investing at scale
00:06:03
globally in that capability for decades
00:06:06
now, thinking long term. And a lot of
00:06:09
the rest of us have not been thinking
00:06:11
long term. We're like just in time,
00:06:13
globalization. How do we make the most
00:06:15
money now for our next quarterly return?
00:06:18
And that reality is making China not a
00:06:23
better economy today, but it's setting
00:06:25
them up for a much stronger long-term
00:06:28
trajectory. So, as a risk, you're going
00:06:30
to ask me to do this. It is not as
00:06:32
critical as the US political revolution
00:06:35
because this is focusing on 2026 and
00:06:38
China is playing out over a longer
00:06:40
period of time. But it is absolutely
00:06:43
severe because the Chinese understand
00:06:47
that long-term
00:06:49
as countries are saying the Americans
00:06:52
are less predictable and we're more
00:06:54
vulnerable to their sudden changes in
00:06:56
decisions. Many more countries are
00:06:58
saying well we want to hedge and do more
00:07:00
with the Chinese and those decisions
00:07:03
really matter. If this continues, if
00:07:05
this direction of travel continues, what
00:07:07
happens next in terms of global order,
00:07:08
in terms of the Middle East, in terms of
00:07:10
all of these things we've talked about,
00:07:11
>> Trump will fail. Um, and and I think
00:07:14
that the level of policy incompetence
00:07:17
and unwillingness to take on expertise
00:07:20
is ensuring that it will fail. He's
00:07:22
quite unpopular on so many issues right
00:07:24
now. He's going to lose in a big way in
00:07:26
the midterms coming up in November. And
00:07:28
that will make him look like a lame
00:07:30
duck. and Republicans will start to
00:07:32
think about their own futures as opposed
00:07:34
to holding on to this 80-year-old guy.
00:07:37
Having said that, we will not have
00:07:39
resolved these underlying challenges for
00:07:41
average Americans. So, there will still
00:07:43
be a demand for a political revolution
00:07:46
in the United States. The question will
00:07:48
be will the next person that comes and
00:07:51
captures that are they going to be
00:07:53
focused on themselves or focused on the
00:07:54
country? Right? that Trump actually
00:07:57
identified the symptoms and was able to
00:08:01
benefit as a political entrepreneur
00:08:04
twice from getting elected in free and
00:08:06
fair elections. Right. Mostly the
00:08:08
reality is a future person. We we're in
00:08:12
New York right now. Zoran Mdani, a
00:08:15
democratic socialist, is the mayor of
00:08:19
New York City, which is like the capital
00:08:21
of global capitalism and finance in the
00:08:23
world. What does that tell you? That
00:08:26
tells you that there's still a demand
00:08:28
for something very different. And we
00:08:31
don't know is it going to come from the
00:08:32
left or the right, but we know that that
00:08:34
level of uncertainty is growing. And
00:08:37
it's not just growing in the United
00:08:38
States. It's growing in the global
00:08:40
order. Because if the Americans are no
00:08:42
longer willing to act as the global
00:08:44
leader, but no one else is capable of
00:08:46
filling those shoes, you don't have a G7
00:08:50
or a G20 where governments come together
00:08:52
and agree on the rules of the road. You
00:08:54
have a G0, an absence of global
00:08:57
leadership, where people, the powerful,
00:09:00
make the rules that are useful to them
00:09:03
and the weak have to accept that, have
00:09:06
to find a way to live under that. That
00:09:08
that's where we're heading. There was a
00:09:10
Yale poll in April 2026 that said Camala
00:09:14
Harris is leading the overall Democratic
00:09:16
field with 20% narrowly edging out Gavin
00:09:19
Newsome at 19% and Pete Bhajed at 14%
00:09:21
with AOC at 13%.
00:09:24
Means literally nothing to me. You know,
00:09:26
I think it was Jim Carville, the great
00:09:28
um Democratic political strategist that
00:09:30
was talking about November. He said,
00:09:32
"You know what the Democrats need to do?
00:09:33
They need to all get on a plane and go
00:09:35
to Turks and Caos until after the
00:09:37
election. Say nothing. be absent. Just
00:09:40
do not be and allow it's it's like um
00:09:43
you know the SunSu it's like when your
00:09:46
when your opponent is making mistakes
00:09:48
stay out of their way.
00:09:49
>> When you say the election, do you mean
00:09:50
the midterm election?
00:09:51
>> Midterm election. Yeah. Yeah. So for now
00:09:54
there there's nothing happening except
00:09:56
Trump and the reaction to Trump. Then
00:09:59
after that we have a two-year long god
00:10:01
god help us uh election in the United
00:10:04
States. billions of dollars will be
00:10:05
spent and people will have far too much
00:10:08
information about far too many of these
00:10:09
people. Then we can have a conversation.
00:10:11
It is too early to talk about 2028 right
00:10:13
now.
00:10:13
>> I have to ask you then what on earth is
00:10:16
going on?
00:10:17
>> I wonder when we're going to get there.
00:10:18
We got this big map in front of us here.
00:10:20
We haven't even touched the Middle East.
00:10:22
We literally haven't touched it.
00:10:23
>> What is going on? Like really take me
00:10:26
back to the beginning. What did Trump
00:10:28
think was going to happen? How is this
00:10:29
linked to Venezuela? Why would he do
00:10:31
this after saying that he was the
00:10:33
president that was going to stop all the
00:10:34
wars? What is the big picture here?
00:10:36
>> And literally one of the eight wars that
00:10:38
he said that he had stopped was with
00:10:40
Iran.
00:10:41
>> This was not what he was voted in on.
00:10:45
>> He was voted in, he ended the war in
00:10:46
Afghanistan. I mean, he cut the deal
00:10:49
with the Taliban. Was it a great deal?
00:10:51
Yeah, for the Taliban it was pretty
00:10:52
good. But it got the Americans out. 20
00:10:55
years, a trillion dollars fought on the
00:11:00
backs of the Afghan people and of
00:11:03
Americans, not wealthy Americans, not
00:11:05
people like Trump that could find a way
00:11:06
out of service, but poor Americans
00:11:09
>> and Europeans.
00:11:11
>> Yeah. And Europeans who fought side by
00:11:14
side with the Americans when the
00:11:15
Americans asked them to. almost all of
00:11:17
them sending troops and many of them
00:11:19
wounded and dying in the same numbers,
00:11:21
the same percentages, just as courageous
00:11:23
as the Americans were, right? So,
00:11:26
Americans wanted an end to that.
00:11:28
Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, what the
00:11:31
hell are you guys doing? We're not
00:11:32
benefiting that. Stop it. Trump stopped
00:11:34
it. So, why did he do this?
00:11:36
>> Why did he do this?
00:11:37
>> Why did he do this? I think there are
00:11:38
three reasons why he did it. I'll take
00:11:40
you through. First reason you said
00:11:43
Venezuela, not on this map. Shouldn't be
00:11:45
relevant to this map. Turns out it's
00:11:48
relevant to this map. Trump had plans to
00:11:51
take out Maduro.
00:11:53
He's got a lot of people inside his
00:11:55
administration that see this guy as a
00:11:57
real problem. And by the way, a problem
00:11:59
for the region. 8 million Venezuelan
00:12:01
refugees destabilizing the region. Lots
00:12:04
of drug export destabilizing the region.
00:12:07
So he had been planning to do something.
00:12:09
>> Was it also linked to oil? it was
00:12:11
relevant. They have the world's largest
00:12:13
oil reserves. It is going to take far
00:12:16
more years than Trump will be in office
00:12:18
to make that meaningful. So, it sounds
00:12:22
good from a branding perspective and
00:12:23
you're going to see a few hundred
00:12:24
thousand more barrels a day, but it's
00:12:26
it's going to be years. If you saw that
00:12:29
um testimony by the CEO of Exxon Mobile
00:12:32
who said, you know, Venezuela is not
00:12:35
investable today and Trump was angry at
00:12:37
him and all the other energy CEOs like,
00:12:38
"Thank you for saying that. We're not
00:12:40
saying anything like him. Look at him.
00:12:42
Look at him. Not much courage among
00:12:43
those CEOs publicly. So the oil is a
00:12:46
great headline for Trump. It doesn't
00:12:48
matter much for Trump's presidency as we
00:12:50
know.
00:12:51
>> Just to get some color on that. Is that
00:12:52
because they just can't they have to
00:12:53
build up lots of infrastructure to be
00:12:55
able to extract it?
00:12:55
>> Oh yeah. And and because all their
00:12:57
engineers are gone, most of them in the
00:12:59
oil patch up in Canada, which has
00:13:00
similar uh geology to it because they've
00:13:04
destroyed so much of their
00:13:05
infrastructure. It's broken down because
00:13:07
the governance structure isn't there
00:13:09
yet. They don't have people that are
00:13:10
capable of actually ensuring that there
00:13:12
will be contracts that you would follow
00:13:15
through on engage in people that still
00:13:17
have huge lawsuits that need to be
00:13:18
resolved. Right? So all of this stuff
00:13:20
but to get to your I don't want to lose
00:13:22
sight of your why did Trump do this in
00:13:24
Iran. So the first point is beginning of
00:13:27
the year Trump goes in to Venezuela,
00:13:31
right? It is the most successful
00:13:35
military operation you can possibly
00:13:37
imagine. Not a single American
00:13:40
serviceman or woman is killed. They go
00:13:42
in, they take Maduro out. They don't
00:13:45
kill him. They don't injure him. They
00:13:48
bring him to a jail in Brooklyn, right
00:13:50
here in New York. Out of burrow, but
00:13:52
still counts. New York City, right?
00:13:54
Extraordinary. And he's facing justice.
00:13:58
And meanwhile, Deli Rodriguez, right?
00:14:01
Suddenly, vice president becomes acting
00:14:04
president. It's like, "Sir, we want to
00:14:07
work with you guys. We don't want any of
00:14:09
that." Right? And so, you've got a new
00:14:11
government that is has a different
00:14:12
trajectory, but it's basically the same
00:14:14
regime. And they say, "Whatever you
00:14:16
want, we will work on. You want we'll
00:14:18
open our oil sector. We'll open our
00:14:20
mining sector. We'll have better rags.
00:14:22
We'll we'll we'll try to improve the
00:14:24
economy for the average Venezuelan. I
00:14:25
mean, they're starting to become
00:14:26
popular. In another year, if they had
00:14:29
elections in Venezuela, it is not
00:14:31
inconceivable that she would win in a
00:14:34
democratic election, which is like blows
00:14:36
your mind, right? Whole bunch, hundreds
00:14:38
of political prisoners, they've
00:14:40
released. I talked to leaders all over
00:14:43
South America. They all think this was a
00:14:46
success. This is enormously popular
00:14:48
among the populations in those countries
00:14:50
because they care about security. That's
00:14:53
what they've been voting on. Their
00:14:54
elections have been about the economy
00:14:56
and local security and Venezuela has
00:14:59
been a problem for them, right? I mean,
00:15:00
they're exporting people causing crime.
00:15:03
Colombia, Peru, Brazil, this Chile,
00:15:06
right? This has been a serious issue.
00:15:08
Trump Trump is hugely feeling great,
00:15:11
successful, and now he's like, I can do
00:15:13
that in Iran. I can do it even bigger.
00:15:15
That's the first reason. That's the I
00:15:17
said three reasons. That's the first
00:15:18
reason. Second reason, this is not
00:15:20
Trump's first rodeo with the Iranians.
00:15:24
In his first presidency, the Iranians
00:15:26
were engaging in strikes against the
00:15:29
Americans directly and with proxies, uh,
00:15:32
bases in Iraq, other places also were
00:15:36
taking on strikes against the biggest
00:15:38
refinery in the world in Saudi Arabia.
00:15:40
Those drone strikes, you may remember,
00:15:43
the Saudis and the Amiradis were telling
00:15:45
the Americans, when are you going to do
00:15:46
something? we need to take some action.
00:15:48
Trump didn't want to do anything.
00:15:49
They're getting angry, right? Finally,
00:15:52
the end of his presidency, he orders,
00:15:54
pretty bold move, the assassination of
00:15:57
this incredibly charismatic military
00:15:59
leader, Kasamsulammani, the head of the
00:16:01
Kuds force as it was called in Iran. And
00:16:04
Iran was so angry and they were going to
00:16:06
destroy the United States. Death to
00:16:08
America. What do they actually do?
00:16:10
Nothing. And then last June,
00:16:14
Iranians are developing their ballistic
00:16:16
missiles. They're developing their
00:16:17
nuclear enrichment in radian enrichment.
00:16:20
They're like stockpiling at higher
00:16:22
levels 60% and the Israelis want to go
00:16:25
in. Trump's providing intelligence. He
00:16:28
doesn't want to go. Kind of dangerous.
00:16:29
The Israelis go in. It's enormously
00:16:31
popular. It's going well. Succeeding.
00:16:33
Trump's like, I want a part of that.
00:16:35
That's successful. So, he joins in.
00:16:37
Second time Israel took casualties about
00:16:40
100 killed I think in the course of that
00:16:42
12-day war. The United States Iran
00:16:45
talked big did not hit the Americans.
00:16:47
They threw some missiles at that Alade
00:16:49
base in Qatar, the biggest US base. They
00:16:52
warned the Americans through Iraq before
00:16:54
the missiles were launched. So it was
00:16:57
very clear the Iranians didn't want any
00:16:59
part of that fight. So Trump is thinking
00:17:01
to himself, "This is going to be awesome
00:17:04
cuz I'm going to go in. I'm going to
00:17:05
pull Venezuela in Iran. And I know they
00:17:07
don't want to fight me. I kill the
00:17:08
Supreme Leader, 86 years old. He's going
00:17:10
to die anyway. He's not that popular
00:17:11
among the Iranian, the Islamic
00:17:13
Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC,
00:17:16
because they're the ones that really run
00:17:17
the country. I'm going to have this huge
00:17:19
military force that shows what I'm
00:17:21
capable of doing. Then the rest of the
00:17:23
Iranian leadership, they're going to
00:17:25
want to work with me just like they did
00:17:26
in Venezuela. That was reason number
00:17:27
two. And then the most important reason,
00:17:31
the most important reason is that unlike
00:17:34
Trump's first term where he had people
00:17:36
around him that were patriotic first and
00:17:39
foremost to the country and when they
00:17:41
had disagreements with Trump, they let
00:17:43
him know and they leaked and they also
00:17:47
um were willing occasionally to do what
00:17:50
they could to undermine an incompetent
00:17:52
decision that would hurt the country.
00:17:53
And we saw that whether it was with Mike
00:17:56
Pompeo or or or Mad Dog Mattis, right?
00:18:00
All of these people who were much more
00:18:03
independent, strong actors. This time
00:18:06
around, Trump has some really good
00:18:07
adviserss, people like Marco Rubio and
00:18:11
uh Scott Besson. He also has some
00:18:13
staggeringly incompetent adviserss like
00:18:15
Pete Hegath for example. But what they
00:18:17
all share is that they are first and
00:18:20
foremost loyal to the president and they
00:18:23
will not tell him. They won't push back.
00:18:26
And what he hears from them is shaded
00:18:30
towards how brilliant he is. And that
00:18:32
makes him think that he will be more
00:18:34
successful even when the military thinks
00:18:38
this is a horrible idea. And we just saw
00:18:40
this with the reporting from the head of
00:18:42
the joint chiefs, Dan Kaine, who clearly
00:18:45
thinks that this is a really bad idea
00:18:46
and understands that the military um
00:18:49
scenarios are super dangerous and that
00:18:51
the Iranians will be able to shut down
00:18:53
the straight. And every military in the
00:18:55
US for the last 20, 30 years has gamed
00:18:58
out how the Iranians could shut down the
00:19:00
straight in a major conflict. And Trump
00:19:03
hears very little of that and he's
00:19:06
taking away. I'm incredible. I'm
00:19:08
confident I'm going to make this happen.
00:19:10
Those are the reasons he went in.
00:19:12
>> And so he thought it would be take out
00:19:13
the Supreme Leader, then they'll
00:19:15
negotiate. We'll get a better deal.
00:19:16
We'll have a political system there or
00:19:19
political leader there that is obedient
00:19:20
to us.
00:19:21
>> Yep. It'll be and it'll be maybe it
00:19:23
won't be a day, but it's not going to be
00:19:25
a month.
00:19:26
>> And what actually happened?
00:19:28
>> That did not happen. What actually
00:19:30
happened is um the Americans took out
00:19:32
well the Israelis took out the supreme
00:19:34
leader and also took out a lot of the
00:19:37
military leadership that the Americans
00:19:39
had been speaking to which is why Trump
00:19:41
came out and he said well a lot of the
00:19:43
guys were talking to are dead now so we
00:19:45
don't really know who to work with. He
00:19:47
said that in the not even if it's true
00:19:50
and it was you don't want the president
00:19:51
saying that right he has no filter. Um
00:19:54
so which is which is one of the more
00:19:55
interesting things about this
00:19:56
presidency. What happened is the Iranian
00:19:59
leadership was taken out. The response
00:20:02
was immediately what they call this
00:20:03
mosaic situation uh where they
00:20:06
decentralized the um military decision-m
00:20:10
to local commanders because they were
00:20:12
worried that the high level commanders
00:20:14
if they were on cell phones, if they
00:20:16
were engaging with other commanders, the
00:20:18
Israelis would know where they were and
00:20:19
they'd be able to assassinate them. So
00:20:21
then suddenly the Iranians were taking
00:20:24
shots at other at Gulf states at
00:20:27
critical infrastructure and stopping
00:20:30
transit from the straight.
00:20:31
>> This is one of the questions I had is in
00:20:33
several interviews that Trump has done
00:20:35
he alludes to the fact that he thinks
00:20:36
he's talking to the right people. Do you
00:20:38
really believe I know there was a
00:20:40
meeting recently in Pakistan where they
00:20:41
sent JD Vance in to negotiate with Iran.
00:20:45
Do you think anyone is running Iran at
00:20:47
the moment? Is there leadership in Iran?
00:20:49
Is it possible to negotiate and control
00:20:51
all of these dispersed forces
00:20:55
um at the moment?
00:20:57
>> First, the honest answer is it's
00:20:58
impossible to know because this is right
00:21:02
now the the the internal decision-m of
00:21:05
Iran is extremely buttoned up. Um and it
00:21:08
they ain't talking to anyone uh about
00:21:12
that.
00:21:13
>> But it's very easy to assess two things.
00:21:17
first um that their ability to make
00:21:21
centralized decision plans and implement
00:21:25
them is real. So when their biggest gas
00:21:29
field is hit and they say we're going to
00:21:31
hit you back in return, they are able to
00:21:33
implement on that in short order. So
00:21:35
we've seen a number of occasions in the
00:21:38
last five weeks where Iran has gone from
00:21:41
statement made by the foreign ministry
00:21:43
and by spokespeople to action taken by
00:21:47
local commander in Iran which implies
00:21:49
that there is a centralized structure.
00:21:51
We also see toll taking on the strait by
00:21:55
individuals that are being ordered by
00:21:58
the central Iranian government to do
00:21:59
that. They're not operating by
00:22:00
themselves. So in that regard, the fact
00:22:03
that the Iranians showed up in Islamabad
00:22:06
in Pakistan with significant leadership
00:22:10
with the foreign minister, also the
00:22:12
speaker of the parliament, but also a
00:22:13
team of experts who had briefs on
00:22:17
negotiating on a number of different
00:22:19
points on the street and on ballistic
00:22:23
missiles and on support of proxy actors
00:22:27
and on the nuclear issue which proved
00:22:28
the most divisive in those 21 hours of
00:22:30
talks.
00:22:32
shows that this regime is still very
00:22:34
much functioning despite all of the
00:22:37
Israeli and the American efforts to say
00:22:39
that, you know, they've done all this
00:22:40
incredible damage. This regime is still
00:22:41
very much in place
00:22:42
>> and they couldn't get a deal. So Trump
00:22:45
announced that he's going to block the
00:22:46
strait of Humuz himself
00:22:48
>> just hours ago. I think that that is
00:22:50
also overstated.
00:22:52
You have 21 hours of talks led by the
00:22:56
vice president of the United States. I
00:22:58
assure you if these talks were a
00:23:00
disaster, they don't last 24 hours. Two
00:23:03
or three and then they're out. 21 hours
00:23:06
means very substantive conversations on
00:23:09
the entire range of topics that were of
00:23:13
importance to the Americans and the
00:23:14
Iranians. Trump did not get the outcome
00:23:17
he wanted. Ultimately, I'm not super
00:23:20
surprised because the Iranians feel like
00:23:21
they have more leverage right now than
00:23:23
the United States thinks they do. And
00:23:25
this frustrates Trump immensely. And so
00:23:28
at the end, remember he's he's calling
00:23:29
and talking with Vance more than 10
00:23:32
times over the course of this entire
00:23:33
conversation. It's a they're they're in
00:23:36
regular contact. At that point, Trump
00:23:38
says, "Okay, I'm blockading the street."
00:23:42
But just before markets open on Monday,
00:23:45
you also see reporting that, well, these
00:23:47
talks that were a disaster, we're we're
00:23:50
going to engage in further talks. So
00:23:52
maybe it wasn't such a disaster. Maybe
00:23:54
what's really going on here is Trump
00:23:57
wants to show that he still has more
00:23:59
leverage to use against the Iranians
00:24:01
because he's lost a lot of his leverage.
00:24:03
He gave a speech to the American people,
00:24:05
one speech so far about Iran. Prime time
00:24:07
speech. In that speech, he said, "War's
00:24:09
almost over. Two to three weeks, Max.
00:24:11
We're done. If I'm the Iranians and I
00:24:14
hear that, I'm like, great. The
00:24:16
Americans can't take this pain anymore.
00:24:17
They can't take it." He keeps saying,
00:24:19
"Straits, not my problem. Straits, let
00:24:21
them take care of it." I hear that I'm
00:24:23
the Iranians. Great. He can't take this
00:24:26
economic pain. He knows he doesn't have
00:24:27
a military solution. So, it's not that
00:24:30
the Iranians are only hearing for Trump,
00:24:32
I'm going to destroy your civilization.
00:24:33
They're seeing what he's actually doing.
00:24:35
>> And he seems to change his mind a lot or
00:24:37
not follow through on some of the
00:24:38
threats that he makes.
00:24:39
>> Right. Of course.
00:24:40
>> And then they also will be aware that
00:24:41
he's becoming increasingly unpopular
00:24:44
>> on this issue specifically. on this
00:24:45
issue
00:24:46
>> on this issue specifically. He is
00:24:47
underwater just like he was on Greenland
00:24:49
where he eventually completely did a
00:24:52
180. He was going to put tariffs on all
00:24:54
the Europeans that supported Denmark. He
00:24:56
had to take Greenland. Those things went
00:24:58
away.
00:24:59
>> So you're sat there. You're going
00:25:00
Trump's own people are pressurizing him
00:25:03
to get the hell out of here.
00:25:04
>> He's unpopular day by day. It's hurting
00:25:07
his economy. Correct. His midterms
00:25:09
elections that are coming up. He's going
00:25:11
to be severely hurt and he's going to
00:25:12
lose power in that regard. So actually
00:25:15
the Iranian leaders, I mean they might
00:25:19
be incentivized just to wait it out.
00:25:20
>> That's right. Because they don't think
00:25:21
they have to wait it out for months.
00:25:24
>> It's a democracy. So he's going to be
00:25:25
unelected at some point in a couple
00:25:26
years.
00:25:26
>> They saw China. China did this right
00:25:29
last year, Liberation Day as Trump
00:25:32
called it where he puts tariffs on all
00:25:33
these countries. He puts these high
00:25:34
tariffs on China. They hit back. He does
00:25:37
it again. They hit back again. He's
00:25:39
like, "I'm going to do export controls."
00:25:40
I said, "Well, we're going to shut down
00:25:41
your critical minerals." Suddenly CEOs
00:25:42
are going to Mara Lago. They say you got
00:25:44
to deal with the Iranians or or we're
00:25:46
going to shut down our factory lines. In
00:25:48
red states, Trump has to back down.
00:25:50
Right? So they've we've already seen
00:25:53
that when a country has leverage over
00:25:55
Trump and they can hit him, he has the
00:25:57
most strong military in the world, but
00:25:59
he also has a glass jaw. He can't take a
00:26:01
hit the way that unelected
00:26:03
non-democracies can. The Chinese and now
00:26:07
the Iranians over the Strait. So what
00:26:09
Trump is doing with announcing the
00:26:11
blockade, and by the way, he hasn't
00:26:12
broken the ceasefire. So even though a
00:26:14
blockade is an act of war, he still
00:26:16
hasn't said, "Okay, you guys have to
00:26:17
start hitting the Iranians again right
00:26:18
now." So he this is still deescalated
00:26:22
compared to a week ago. A week ago, this
00:26:24
looked much more dangerous than it looks
00:26:25
today. He's saying to the Iranians, hey,
00:26:28
I'm willing to cut off your source of
00:26:30
funds. I'm willing to stop you from
00:26:33
exporting oil and making money off of
00:26:35
it. same Trump that suspended those
00:26:38
sanctions on Iran because he wanted to
00:26:40
keep the prices down. So that's that's
00:26:42
what's happening right here.
00:26:44
>> Iran also, again, I'm trying to put
00:26:46
myself in the the mind of, you know, the
00:26:49
incentive structure of the Iranian
00:26:50
leaders. They can't let it be seen or
00:26:53
known that dropping bombs on us made us
00:26:57
pander to you. Because if they set that
00:26:59
precedence, then for the next couple of
00:27:01
decades, every American leader is going
00:27:03
to know, okay, if you want Iran to play
00:27:04
ball, all you do is take out their
00:27:06
leadership, you drop loads of bombs on
00:27:07
everything they have, and then they come
00:27:08
and negotiate with you and give up their
00:27:10
nuclear weapons and everything else. So,
00:27:13
I imagine there's an element of an
00:27:15
Iranians now going, if we buckle here,
00:27:18
then for the rest of time, America are
00:27:21
going to repeat this playbook.
00:27:22
>> I I hear what you're saying. I I would
00:27:24
put it slightly differently. I I think
00:27:26
that after the 12-day war last June, the
00:27:30
Iranians understood that their deterrent
00:27:32
capacity had failed. They were incapable
00:27:36
of preventing the Americans and the
00:27:39
Israelis from hitting them and their
00:27:40
proxies whenever they wanted. We've
00:27:42
talked a lot about Iran. We haven't
00:27:44
talked at all about Lebanon. There's
00:27:47
another war going on in Lebanon right
00:27:48
now. The Israelis are hitting the
00:27:51
Lebanese very hard. There's over a
00:27:52
million displaced people in the last
00:27:54
several weeks.
00:27:55
>> Why? Why? What? What is this war?
00:27:57
>> Well, Hezbollah, which is um a terrorist
00:28:00
organization uh as recognized by Israel
00:28:03
and the United States, though not
00:28:04
everybody, continues to have the ability
00:28:07
to engage in strikes against Israel.
00:28:09
Nowhere close to the strength of the
00:28:10
Israeli military. But le the Lebanese
00:28:13
government promised to disarm them. They
00:28:15
have not done that. And so Hezbollah has
00:28:17
been able to continue to engage in
00:28:20
missile strikes, relatively small
00:28:21
numbers of missile strikes into the
00:28:24
north of Israel where Israeli citizens
00:28:26
live. There was a period of time after
00:28:28
the October 7th um attacks by Hamas
00:28:31
where over a 100,000 Israelis had to
00:28:34
evacuate from their homes and their
00:28:36
schools and the rest for like a year
00:28:39
because Hezbollah was making their lives
00:28:42
hell. Right? So what Israel is now doing
00:28:45
is they're going to take territory about
00:28:47
5 to 7 kilometers of Lebanese land.
00:28:50
They're going to occupy it as a buffer
00:28:52
zone to protect those Israeli civilians
00:28:57
from Hezbollah being able to hit them
00:28:59
with their weapons. That is the
00:29:01
intention here. And so what Iran
00:29:04
understands is that their ability to
00:29:06
deter Israel from hitting Hezbollah,
00:29:09
Hezbollah at the beginning in October
00:29:11
7th, Hezbollah was the most powerful
00:29:14
non-state military in the world. No one
00:29:17
else was close. And today, Hezbollah has
00:29:20
shown that their leadership gets
00:29:22
targeted and destroyed, assassinated
00:29:24
across the board by the Israelis, that
00:29:26
their military is incapable, their
00:29:29
critical infrastructure can be
00:29:31
disrupted, and that Israel can also hit
00:29:33
Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, and no
00:29:34
one can do anything and return to
00:29:36
Israel.
00:29:36
>> There's lots of chaos going on in the
00:29:38
world right now.
00:29:39
>> Yes. Was there a way to have avoided all
00:29:43
of this? Was there something that
00:29:45
someone could have done further upstream
00:29:48
to avoid all this chaos that we're
00:29:49
seeing now in the Middle East? Like what
00:29:51
was the first domino that fell
00:29:52
>> in Iran?
00:29:54
You do have an enormously repressive
00:29:57
regime that has the ability um to take
00:30:00
action against their own people in a in
00:30:04
in a incredibly brutal way as we saw
00:30:06
play out in January.
00:30:07
>> And it's also a regime that does not
00:30:09
respect the right of Israel to exist.
00:30:11
It's also a regime that has been sending
00:30:15
weapons and money and military advice to
00:30:19
other revolutionary actors around the
00:30:22
region, undermining security in Yemen,
00:30:26
undermining security um in Iraq,
00:30:30
undermining security in Syria. So, I
00:30:32
mean, the fact that at the core of the
00:30:34
Middle East, you have a revolutionary
00:30:35
regime that was exporting instability
00:30:38
and violence is a serious problem.
00:30:40
That's number one. Number two, Israel.
00:30:43
America's top ally in the region.
00:30:45
America first. But Trump still gives
00:30:47
billions of dollars every year to
00:30:48
Israel, even as he's cut off military
00:30:50
aid and support for almost everyone,
00:30:51
including for Ukraine. Right. This
00:30:54
country is very capable of now attacking
00:30:59
all of its enemies and creating outcomes
00:31:01
that it wants whether or not it creates
00:31:04
instability in those countries. We've
00:31:06
seen that in Gaza and the West Bank,
00:31:09
right? I mean reality is Israel is
00:31:11
continuing to take more and more
00:31:13
territory in the West Bank and no one
00:31:14
can do anything about it. They hit
00:31:16
Lebanon really hard. No one can respond
00:31:18
to that. So that is creating a reality
00:31:21
where Israel is able to determine
00:31:23
outcomes and even attack Iran directly
00:31:26
with the United States. They felt very
00:31:28
confident about taking that on and that
00:31:30
there would not be backlash that would
00:31:33
undermine Israel's own political
00:31:36
survival. It wasn't an existential risk
00:31:38
to Israel and even if Iran developed
00:31:41
nukes which is everyone wants to prevent
00:31:43
from happening but Israel has their own
00:31:44
nukes right I mean they have like a 100
00:31:46
plus so those are two fundamental
00:31:50
drivers of of conflict and instability
00:31:53
in the region one aligned with the
00:31:55
United States one a revolutionary
00:31:57
theocracy there have been very positive
00:32:00
developments in this region very
00:32:01
positive developments first of all Syria
00:32:05
Assad was a brutal dictator that was
00:32:08
overthrown by his own people and his own
00:32:11
military would not support and fight for
00:32:13
him and the Russians proved that they
00:32:14
couldn't support him in a significant
00:32:17
way. And so now you have an opportunity
00:32:19
for Syria to become a representative
00:32:21
government that can engage with others
00:32:24
around the region and more broadly.
00:32:26
That's a positive. You've got Saudi
00:32:28
Arabia and the UAE and Qatar that are
00:32:32
engaging in transformative domestic
00:32:36
policies to attract investment from all
00:32:40
over the world to build experiences that
00:32:43
everyone would want to travel and engage
00:32:45
in to create work opportunities that are
00:32:48
far better remunerated than anything
00:32:50
that foreign labor could get in their
00:32:52
own home countries allowing them to
00:32:54
bring money home. And in the case of
00:32:56
Saudi Arabia specifically, they're
00:32:57
taking 35 million people. Half of that
00:33:00
economy used to be closed to women and
00:33:02
now they're bringing women into the
00:33:04
economy. They're actually not just
00:33:05
educating them, but they're giving them
00:33:06
opportunities in every area of
00:33:09
employment. That is one of the most
00:33:11
extraordinary stories in the world today
00:33:13
in terms of change and governance and
00:33:15
that continues. Then final point here is
00:33:18
that in the context of this Iran war we
00:33:22
do and in the context of a United States
00:33:25
which is doing less global leadership
00:33:28
there are questions of how these
00:33:30
countries that are aligned with the US
00:33:32
want to ensure their own futures. And so
00:33:35
we see increasingly two different blocks
00:33:39
that are starting to form. You've got
00:33:42
the United Arab Emirates together with
00:33:44
Israel. You remember the Abraham Accords
00:33:47
which was Trump's big foreign policy
00:33:49
success in his first term where he got
00:33:51
these countries the UAE and others to
00:33:54
recognize Israel and and start doing a
00:33:57
lot more tourism and you know business
00:33:59
and technology transfers and the rest.
00:34:01
So UAE, Israel, the United States and
00:34:04
India are increasingly aligning on
00:34:07
national security and technology and
00:34:09
they're becoming more of a international
00:34:13
block
00:34:14
based on this region. At the same time,
00:34:17
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan long worked
00:34:20
together on defense are now much more
00:34:22
public about an alliance. Pakistan is
00:34:24
nuclear, Saudi Arabia is not, but
00:34:26
Pakistan would provide them nuclear
00:34:27
weapons if they really wanted it. That's
00:34:30
absolutely something to think about.
00:34:31
They are increasingly becoming a
00:34:33
regional defense quad. Four countries
00:34:36
together with Turkey and Egypt. Big
00:34:40
countries, big populations aligning more
00:34:43
diplomatically and on defense calling
00:34:45
for a regional security architecture in
00:34:49
the region, but that would not be easily
00:34:51
aligned with the UAE, America, Israel,
00:34:55
and with India. So that is also a
00:35:00
significant tension. And in the context
00:35:02
of all of that, 95 million people in
00:35:05
Iran whose military has been
00:35:08
substantially degraded, whose economy
00:35:11
and industry have been substantially
00:35:13
degraded and who were already running
00:35:15
their economy into the ground before the
00:35:17
war happened. These guys aren't winners.
00:35:19
They're survivors,
00:35:21
right? They have influence over the
00:35:23
strait, but they're not winning. And
00:35:25
this is dangerous long term.
00:35:27
>> Your firm makes a lot of predictions. So
00:35:29
I I wanted to ask you to help me try and
00:35:33
look forward as to how this conflict
00:35:36
might end. Um we're in a position now
00:35:38
where it seems that the US aren't going
00:35:40
to give up the demand to Iran that they
00:35:43
cease to develop and pursue nuclear
00:35:45
enrichment. It appears that Iran have
00:35:48
said that they want the right and they
00:35:50
believe they have the right, they said
00:35:51
this before this conflict started to
00:35:52
enrich uranium and to have nuclear power
00:35:55
plants and all these kinds of things. So
00:35:56
how does this end? Like Trump's now he's
00:35:58
blockaded the straight off news.
00:36:00
>> Um we're in another standoff.
00:36:02
>> Cease fires in place.
00:36:03
>> The ceasefires in place which I think he
00:36:05
said was 14 days
00:36:06
>> and we're now probably what got 9 10
00:36:08
days left of that.
00:36:09
>> Yeah.
00:36:10
>> He's thinking a lot about his legacy. He
00:36:12
can't be reelected. He talks sometimes
00:36:14
about, you know, winning the peace prize
00:36:16
and want wanting to be on a Mount
00:36:18
Rushmore of presidents and all this. So
00:36:20
he he can't just leave. If he just
00:36:23
leaves, then Iran carry on with their
00:36:26
enrichment program. It goes down in
00:36:28
history almost like a Bush failure,
00:36:30
geopolitical failure. He can't just
00:36:32
leave. He has to be seen to win. But
00:36:35
also Iran can't let him be seen to win.
00:36:38
So So how what happens? I think unlike
00:36:42
almost anybody else you can imagine, if
00:36:44
he decided that he wanted to end this,
00:36:47
he could end this. He could just leave
00:36:49
and he would say, "I won." He's already
00:36:51
said this in different ways. I don't
00:36:53
even care about the nukes because we've
00:36:55
already intumeded them. They're under
00:36:57
all this rubble. We've got satellite
00:36:59
coverage. If the Iranians try to get at
00:37:01
them, we can hit them back. He's already
00:37:03
said that there's already a regime
00:37:04
change. It's already new people. We can
00:37:06
work. We can talk with these people. He
00:37:07
already said the strait isn't his
00:37:08
problem, right? But of course, he's also
00:37:10
said different things sometimes in the
00:37:12
same tweet. Right. So he he's picking
00:37:14
and choosing. But what I'm suggesting to
00:37:16
you is that Trump has already moved
00:37:18
towards deescalation.
00:37:20
>> You're spot on when you say he's set the
00:37:22
stage to back out.
00:37:24
>> To back out.
00:37:24
>> We won. Regime change. Straight is not
00:37:26
my problem. We have our own oil. Blah
00:37:27
blah blah blah blah. But then
00:37:29
>> if you don't open that straight, I'm
00:37:30
going to end civilization.
00:37:31
>> Yeah.
00:37:32
>> So which was which didn't seem to fit.
00:37:34
It seemed like he was setting the stage
00:37:35
to back out. And then suddenly the
00:37:37
civilization tweet, I'm going to bum
00:37:38
bomb your bridges and your nuclear power
00:37:39
plants. Which suddenly made me think,
00:37:41
okay, so maybe he does really care.
00:37:42
>> And wasn't plausible, by the way. I
00:37:44
mean, there was no chance that he was
00:37:45
actually going to do all that that
00:37:46
evening.
00:37:47
>> So why didn't he just back out?
00:37:48
>> Well, I do not want to be Trump's
00:37:50
psychologist, right? It is very clear
00:37:53
that he is impulsive and that he does
00:37:57
not have much impulse control. Nor does
00:38:00
he create around him mechanisms that
00:38:03
create impulse control that enforce
00:38:05
impulse control. He's on his phone all
00:38:07
the time. He watches the media
00:38:09
relentlessly. People engage with him
00:38:11
from all over the world on his cell
00:38:13
phone and he has recency bias. The thing
00:38:15
he heard and saw last, he frequently
00:38:17
focuses on.
00:38:18
>> But he also watches the markets. He
00:38:20
seems obsessed with the stock stock
00:38:22
market.
00:38:22
>> That's why so many of the announcements
00:38:23
he makes are right before or right after
00:38:25
the market opens. And obviously there's
00:38:27
been a lot of insider trading concerns
00:38:29
around that too. And people there's he's
00:38:30
concerned about personal enrichment and
00:38:32
people around him making billions of
00:38:34
dollars. That plays in too. I I wish it
00:38:36
didn't. It's it's horrible to talk
00:38:38
about. But you can't avoid that topic.
00:38:41
What happens? You want to know what
00:38:42
happens? I don't have a crystal ball. No
00:38:44
one does. But where I think this could
00:38:47
be going on the basis of that, the most
00:38:49
likely outcome is that the ceasefire is
00:38:51
eventually extended. That we have those
00:38:54
talks that were 21 hours that were
00:38:56
substantive. There'll be more talks.
00:38:58
Maybe not with the vice president, but
00:38:59
there'll be more talks. They'll become
00:39:00
more substantive. and that eventually I
00:39:04
expect that the Iranians are more likely
00:39:07
to give on the nuclear issue and on
00:39:10
enrichment
00:39:12
if they're able to maintain a privileged
00:39:14
position on transit through the straight
00:39:17
because that will help provide them with
00:39:19
money and with security. They get a
00:39:21
level of deterrence if everybody knows
00:39:24
these guys could shut down the straight
00:39:25
in the future. That helps them. They
00:39:27
never had nukes. They weren't going to
00:39:28
get nukes. If they got nukes, they were
00:39:30
going to get blown up. Like everyone
00:39:32
knew that they were two weeks away if
00:39:34
they had access to the material and they
00:39:36
reprocessed the nuclear grade and they
00:39:38
weren't stopped by the Americans and the
00:39:39
Israelis. That's a lot of ifands, right?
00:39:42
So, but here they've got influence over
00:39:45
the strait. They have it. They've used
00:39:47
it. They're using it. They're making
00:39:49
money. Trump does not have a military
00:39:51
plan to hit them back. So, I think that
00:39:53
is the most likely outcome. If that is
00:39:55
the case, then over time the Iranians
00:39:59
will cut more deals with more countries
00:40:02
to get more oil out. And meanwhile,
00:40:05
there will be after the ceasefire is in
00:40:07
place and strong, then the Europeans and
00:40:10
other countries, the Indians, other
00:40:12
countries will come in and they will
00:40:13
start escorting ships to create a more
00:40:16
secure environment in the strait itself.
00:40:19
That is the good scenario or it's the
00:40:21
less bad scenario because all of this
00:40:23
should have been avoided. I want to make
00:40:24
sure I'm clear on this scenario. You're
00:40:26
saying that they'll concede on the
00:40:27
nuclear point Iran potentially
00:40:29
>> at least somewhat. I think they will
00:40:30
compromise on the nuclear point,
00:40:32
>> but in turn they'll get more control
00:40:34
over the straight. Yes.
00:40:35
>> And what does that mean? That they'll be
00:40:37
able to decide who goes through there.
00:40:38
They'll get a toll. Oh, they'll get
00:40:40
>> they'll be able to charge. And by the
00:40:42
way, you could define them charging the
00:40:44
toll as part of the reconstruction money
00:40:48
that they're going to need for the war
00:40:49
that they just
00:40:49
>> reparations for.
00:40:50
>> I mean, they'll call it reparations. No
00:40:52
one else will call it reparations, but
00:40:53
that's fine. I think that is the good
00:40:56
scenario again, the less bad scenario,
00:40:58
and I would say it is more likely than
00:41:00
not. There is another scenario, right?
00:41:03
And the other scenario is that
00:41:05
everything that Trump has been saying is
00:41:07
because he doesn't yet have a military
00:41:09
plan. Over the last days with all this
00:41:12
ceasefire, there's still this new
00:41:15
aircraft strike group that is motoring
00:41:18
its way over to the Gulf. You got
00:41:22
thousands more American troops that are
00:41:24
heading into position, ground troops,
00:41:27
right? They're going to have almost
00:41:28
15,000 total that will be deployed by
00:41:31
Trump since this war started. They're
00:41:33
going to be there in the next 2 weeks.
00:41:35
Once Trump has them there, he can use
00:41:39
them. And there are lots of things he
00:41:41
might use them on. He keeps saying, I
00:41:42
keep seeing him go back. Before I was
00:41:44
talking about all the ways he was
00:41:46
saying, we don't need to defend the
00:41:48
strait. We don't need the nuclear. we
00:41:50
can hit them. But he also has been
00:41:53
saying we should take the oil.
00:41:55
>> I've heard him say this on a number of
00:41:56
occasions. I've also seen him say if
00:41:59
just the American people were a little
00:42:00
more patient, we can take the oil. What
00:42:02
does he mean by taking the oil? That's
00:42:04
not a block. B blockade isn't taking the
00:42:05
oil. Blockade is stopping the Iranians
00:42:07
from getting the oil out. Take the oil
00:42:10
is control the export facility on Car
00:42:14
Island. Right. And and explain this for
00:42:17
for anyone that doesn't know what Car
00:42:18
Island is and the significance of it in
00:42:20
the oil situation.
00:42:21
>> This is this is a comparatively small
00:42:23
island. It's about half the size of
00:42:25
Manhattan.
00:42:26
>> It's not incredibly fortified or
00:42:29
defended. Um and it's very close to the
00:42:32
Iranian shore and it is uh responsible
00:42:35
for 90% of the export of Iranian oil.
00:42:39
sentcom the central command say that you
00:42:42
can take Car Island with 12 to 15,000
00:42:47
men relatively comfortably.
00:42:49
>> So where is Car Island on here?
00:42:51
>> Yeah. So Car Island is right about here.
00:42:53
It's not in the straight itself, but it
00:42:55
is this is it's right off of the Iranian
00:42:57
coast and and we're talking about 90% of
00:43:00
Iranian oil export comes out through
00:43:03
there. So if the Americans take it,
00:43:05
obviously very easy for the Iranians to
00:43:07
be engaged in strikes against them, but
00:43:09
the Iranians will not be able to get any
00:43:12
oil out. So suddenly the Americans have
00:43:13
far more leverage over the Iranian
00:43:16
economy, right? In a very direct way, in
00:43:18
a very targeted way. And that is the way
00:43:21
that you take the oil.
00:43:23
>> Could Trump take the actually take it
00:43:26
out of this region somehow? Is there
00:43:29
like another passage through that
00:43:30
doesn't involve Okay, so he could just
00:43:32
stop the oil.
00:43:32
>> He could stop the oil. Okay.
00:43:33
>> But again, if he has control of Carg,
00:43:36
the oil coming out of CarG, if you want
00:43:38
to have bring it to market, the only
00:43:40
ones that could do it would then be the
00:43:42
Americans. Now, the Iranians at that
00:43:43
point could still disrupt the strait.
00:43:45
And there are other conversations, there
00:43:47
other military plans about how you might
00:43:49
be able to take coastal regions, raids
00:43:53
on the territory that would take out
00:43:55
more ballistic missile sites, go after
00:43:57
their drones. All of this takes more
00:44:00
troops. All this takes more casualties,
00:44:02
but would also give you more capacity to
00:44:06
eventually enforce a navigable straight
00:44:09
with escorts, which right now you can't
00:44:11
do. Right now, the Iranians can prevent
00:44:13
you from getting any ships out if they
00:44:16
wish to. I I think that the likelihood
00:44:18
that Trump is ultimately going to make
00:44:20
that order is well below 50%. I think
00:44:23
that the worst scenario is not the more
00:44:25
likely one because he understands how
00:44:27
unpopular it will be. But it does mean
00:44:30
that he's going to have to sell a pretty
00:44:33
ugly pig with lipstick on it.
00:44:35
>> Mhm.
00:44:36
>> It means that because this was the
00:44:38
problem Trump has is he can't blame
00:44:40
anyone else for this.
00:44:41
>> Yeah.
00:44:42
>> He's the decider. Like he did it. I
00:44:44
mean, he's got his secretaries in the
00:44:46
cabinet. They're all saying, "Well, the
00:44:47
war, it's up to Trump. He's got the war
00:44:48
goals. It'll be over when he says it.
00:44:50
It's all about Trump. He can blame NATO
00:44:52
for not want to join him. They're
00:44:53
joining him. It was his war of choice.
00:44:55
and he's never been responsible directly
00:44:58
for an economic downturn. I mean, the
00:45:00
the pandemic wasn't his fault, right?
00:45:02
This is an economic downturn with oil
00:45:05
prices shooting up, gas is over four
00:45:07
bucks a gallon, diesel's over five,
00:45:10
inflation's ticking up, food prices are
00:45:12
going up, he's wildly underwater on
00:45:15
affordability, and he is completely
00:45:17
responsible for it. No one else is
00:45:19
responsible. And zooming out even
00:45:21
further, when we think about this on a
00:45:23
global scale, you've got Russia, who are
00:45:25
at war with the Ukraine, that seems to
00:45:27
have just completely vanished from the
00:45:28
news cycle, by the way.
00:45:29
>> It has not in in Europe, I promise you,
00:45:31
but in the United States, they're
00:45:32
talking a lot less about it. It's true.
00:45:34
In Poland, this is a very big issue. In
00:45:36
the Baltics, it is a very big issue.
00:45:38
>> And then you've got China who must be
00:45:40
laughing because it looks like the
00:45:43
United States are just sort of
00:45:44
selfharming themselves.
00:45:45
>> Yep. And then you've got Europe, which
00:45:47
is the last power, who seem to now just
00:45:50
be sort of colluding with themselves and
00:45:51
getting together and saying, "Listen,
00:45:52
you know, we're not going to help the US
00:45:53
anymore." I mean, we I grew up through
00:45:55
all these little conflicts and wars, and
00:45:58
the UK always seemed to come to the US.
00:46:01
Yeah.
00:46:02
>> And for the first time ever, I'm
00:46:03
watching the UK go, "Actually, no, you
00:46:05
do this yourself.
00:46:06
>> I'm going to meet with Macron in France,
00:46:07
and we're going to we're going to uh
00:46:09
huddle and um go it alone."
00:46:12
>> What is that big picture? And which part
00:46:13
of that big picture is most pertinent to
00:46:15
talk about? Yeah, China is the most
00:46:16
pertinent because it's the most
00:46:18
powerful. Russia is the easiest to deal
00:46:20
with. Um, which is that for the
00:46:22
Russians, they don't have um much that
00:46:26
they produce that's manufactured. They
00:46:29
don't have very good technology, right?
00:46:31
They're they're relying more on the
00:46:32
Chinese.
00:46:33
>> They've got oil there, haven't they?
00:46:35
>> That they manufacture. They've got oil,
00:46:37
they've got gas, they've got fertilizer,
00:46:40
right? All the things with the prices
00:46:42
have just spiked through the roof.
00:46:43
That's what the Russians have. That's
00:46:45
where their power is. And so they are
00:46:47
making so much more money. Their economy
00:46:49
was really getting squeezed with all the
00:46:51
sanctions. Now they're getting so much
00:46:53
more for everything that they actually
00:46:54
sell. And the Americans have reduced
00:46:56
sanctions like they did on Iran against
00:46:58
Russia because Trump cares about the
00:47:00
markets as you say. So Russia's in a
00:47:02
better position for that reason. And
00:47:04
they're in a better position because all
00:47:06
the weapons the Americans have been
00:47:07
selling to the Europeans to get to
00:47:09
Ukraine, America now needs to get to the
00:47:11
Middle East. So the the Ukrainians are
00:47:15
going to have a harder time defending
00:47:16
their cities against Russian ballistic
00:47:18
missiles, against Russian drones. So
00:47:21
this clearly means that Putin will be
00:47:23
much much less interested in a
00:47:26
ceasefire, which let's face it, he
00:47:28
wasn't really very interested in to
00:47:30
begin with. Trump at the beginning of
00:47:32
this term promised he would end this
00:47:34
war. He was hugely frustrated. He goes
00:47:37
to Israel to announce the Gaza
00:47:38
ceasefire. It's a big win. the Knesset,
00:47:41
the Israeli parliament, their standing
00:47:43
ovation. He's like, you know, I thought
00:47:45
I was going to get the Russia war done
00:47:47
and I failed it. They haven't been able
00:47:48
to do that. I got this one instead. Like
00:47:51
Trump never brings up his own failures.
00:47:53
But this really bothers him. So here
00:47:56
you've got yet more ability for the
00:47:58
Russians to say, "We're going to
00:48:00
persist." And it makes it more likely
00:48:03
that Trump will eventually do a deal
00:48:04
with the Russians over the heads of the
00:48:06
Europeans. So that's that's the Russia
00:48:08
issue kind of in a little box. Now
00:48:11
Europe, we already talked about how
00:48:14
Europe is having its problems
00:48:15
economically. It doesn't have the
00:48:17
productivity. It doesn't have the
00:48:18
growth.
00:48:19
>> What What did Europe do wrong in your
00:48:21
view? Like how did I'm a European, I
00:48:24
guess. I was born in Botswana in Africa,
00:48:26
but I moved to the UK when I was young,
00:48:28
so I guess I'm I'm British. Um,
00:48:31
>> what did the country do wrong? because
00:48:33
the country was so strong and powerful
00:48:35
and respected when I was younger and I
00:48:38
love Britain. But it appears on a global
00:48:41
stage that that perception has changed.
00:48:44
The US are talking to us like a lap dog.
00:48:46
>> Yeah.
00:48:46
>> At Davos, I saw the talks. They're like,
00:48:48
"You need to get your together and
00:48:49
be stronger and stop being so woke blah
00:48:51
blah blah blah."
00:48:52
>> Yeah. Well, first, the the Americans
00:48:54
talking to the Europeans that way has a
00:48:56
lot more to do with the change in
00:48:58
administration. Okay. I don't think any
00:48:59
other Democratic or Republican president
00:49:02
would do what Trump is doing to his
00:49:04
closest allies. I think that's more
00:49:06
unique. But but it is certainly true
00:49:09
that over the last 30 years, there have
00:49:11
been two really big geopolitical shifts.
00:49:15
Right? The United States has shifted its
00:49:17
orientation, but not geopolitical power.
00:49:20
But in terms of power shift, you've got
00:49:22
the rise of China and the global south,
00:49:25
India in particular after China, but
00:49:27
China is the biggest piece of that. And
00:49:28
then you have the decline of American
00:49:31
allies.
00:49:32
Europe, Canada, Japan, South Korea.
00:49:36
These are countries most of which are
00:49:39
contracting demographically, right?
00:49:41
They're countries most of which that
00:49:43
have much flatter growth and much more
00:49:46
reduced productivity than the United
00:49:49
States. They've not been investing in
00:49:51
their own defense. They've not been
00:49:53
investing in their own technology. So
00:49:55
what you see is an asymmetry. At the
00:49:58
same time that the Americans are saying
00:49:59
we're not interested in the rest of the
00:50:01
world. We don't want to do all this
00:50:02
stuff. Want don't want to fight the
00:50:03
wars. Don't want free trade. You're also
00:50:05
seeing a reality where those countries
00:50:07
don't bring as much to the table in a
00:50:10
conversation with the United States. So
00:50:12
the the so-called draggy plan, the
00:50:15
800page plan by the former central bank
00:50:18
head in Europe, the ECB, Mario Draghy,
00:50:21
they called him Super Mario. He had this
00:50:23
competitiveness report that all of these
00:50:25
things that the Europeans needed to do
00:50:27
and he would say the Brits as well to to
00:50:29
address that to build entrepreneurship
00:50:32
to spend in ways that would actually
00:50:34
bring a return long-term to like invest
00:50:38
in new technologies to reduce red tape.
00:50:41
The plan is there. But unlike the United
00:50:45
States, unlike China, Europe is not a
00:50:48
country. Europe is 27 countries in the
00:50:52
EU and the United Kingdom which decided
00:50:55
for Brexit. It's a lot harder when you
00:50:57
don't have scale. It's just harder. And
00:50:59
when you have elections every, you know,
00:51:02
sort of couple every few years, it's
00:51:04
just more challenging. You can't do the
00:51:06
sort of stuff that the UAE or the Saudis
00:51:08
or the Singaporeans or the Chinese can
00:51:11
do at scale long term. So, as a
00:51:13
consequence, what did Europe do wrong?
00:51:15
Europe focused, Europe believed that the
00:51:18
world after the wall came down in 1989,
00:51:21
after the Soviet Union collapsed in
00:51:22
1991, they believed that the world was
00:51:24
just going to be peaceful, that everyone
00:51:26
was going to have a system like the
00:51:27
Europeans did. So, they didn't need to
00:51:28
invest in invest in defense. And it was
00:51:30
okay if they didn't invest in lots of
00:51:32
technology because they had friends that
00:51:34
they could work with and maybe their
00:51:36
growth wouldn't be as big, but their
00:51:37
quality of life would be so high. And
00:51:40
they were completely wrong. China did
00:51:43
not. They got wealthier, but they didn't
00:51:46
suddenly align with the United States
00:51:47
and Europe. China didn't become a free
00:51:49
market economy. China didn't become a
00:51:51
democracy. China is a consolidated
00:51:54
dictatorship under Xihinping with no
00:51:57
term limits and with control of the
00:51:59
economy, state control of the economy.
00:52:01
And that that's a not an easy
00:52:03
environment for the Europeans to be
00:52:06
comfortable being non-competitive.
00:52:08
>> A lot of this come down to energy and
00:52:10
productivity.
00:52:11
>> The cost of energy,
00:52:12
>> the cost of energy. So a lot of these
00:52:13
countries decided to carry on drilling
00:52:15
oil and pursuing nuclear and a lot of
00:52:18
the European countries decided to go for
00:52:20
net zero where they tried to focus more
00:52:22
on sort of sustainable energy sources
00:52:24
>> whereas China didn't seem to give a
00:52:26
quite frankly the US didn't really seem
00:52:28
to care much um and then also on this
00:52:30
point of entrepreneurship and innovation
00:52:32
these the US and China have both really
00:52:35
aggressively pursued entrepreneurship
00:52:36
and innovation and new technologies
00:52:38
whereas one could make the case that the
00:52:40
European environment has been less
00:52:42
friendly ly to new technologies and
00:52:44
innovation.
00:52:45
>> So the the Chinese, you said the Chinese
00:52:47
didn't really give a Not true. The
00:52:50
Chinese have invested in everything. So
00:52:52
the Chinese know that they still need
00:52:54
lots of dirty coal in order to power um
00:52:57
their industry, but they also have
00:52:59
invested like nobody else in green
00:53:02
technologies at scale,
00:53:03
>> solar and things like that.
00:53:04
>> Solar and wind and their their car
00:53:07
companies are the electric vehicle
00:53:09
leaders in the world. and batteries that
00:53:11
are the best batteries, the most
00:53:13
efficient batteries at scale in the
00:53:15
world and all of the the the materials,
00:53:18
the raw materials that go into producing
00:53:20
those. The Chinese have invested in this
00:53:21
for decades now. And nuclear, right?
00:53:24
While the while the Europeans have, with
00:53:25
the exception of France, France is, you
00:53:27
know, has heavy nuclear and that's
00:53:28
helped them in this crisis, most of the
00:53:30
Europeans have turned away from nuclear,
00:53:32
the Europeans have not done an allforall
00:53:36
approach. The Europeans have done a
00:53:38
let's lean into green but let's make
00:53:40
other technologies more challenging
00:53:42
including nuclear which should be seen
00:53:44
as a green technology. So yeah there's
00:53:46
no question that that has inhibited
00:53:48
growth in Europe. The United States has
00:53:52
been on again off again. You've got one
00:53:54
administration that's leaning into
00:53:56
green, the next one that's not when
00:53:58
America should be doing America today is
00:53:59
the world's leading oil producer by a
00:54:02
long margin and fracking natural gas as
00:54:06
well by a long margin doing incredible
00:54:08
work there. Yet the United States is
00:54:10
actively undermining the ability to also
00:54:13
produce clean technologies for energy.
00:54:16
Texas produces more sustainable energy
00:54:19
than any other state in the United
00:54:20
States. Red Texas. So I mean it's not
00:54:23
like this is these energy technologies
00:54:26
are not Republican or Democrat. They are
00:54:28
at scale becoming cheaper. You need all
00:54:31
of them. And so the Europeans made a
00:54:34
mistake in not recognizing that you need
00:54:37
everything.
00:54:38
>> Everybody says that the United States is
00:54:39
the world's leading superpower and that
00:54:42
has been the case. You know hard to
00:54:44
argue against that for a long time. Is
00:54:46
that set to change? Is China set to
00:54:49
become the world's leading superpower?
00:54:52
not soon.
00:54:54
Um but the trae the present trajectory
00:54:57
if it continues
00:54:59
clearly would challenge America's
00:55:01
dominant position clearly. I mean the US
00:55:04
has the dollar is the global reserve
00:55:06
currency right now. Nothing else is
00:55:08
close. And transacting in the dollar is
00:55:10
a huge advantage for the Americans who
00:55:14
can continue to print money with
00:55:15
reckless abandon and run massive
00:55:17
deficits and have lower interest rates
00:55:20
as a consequence. China does not have a
00:55:22
convertible currency. They don't have
00:55:24
rule of law. If they opened their
00:55:26
currency to become convertible, there'd
00:55:28
be massive capital flight and political
00:55:30
instability. That's what they worry
00:55:32
about. So, they don't compete with the
00:55:34
US there. China's military is still a
00:55:36
fraction of the capabilities of the US.
00:55:38
They're watching what's happening in
00:55:39
Venezuela, in Iran. They don't have that
00:55:42
capacity. They're not close. They're
00:55:44
building their nuclear weapons out.
00:55:45
They're building their conventional
00:55:46
weapons out. They have never fought a
00:55:48
naval war. They have It's decades since
00:55:51
they fought a ground war. U they're not
00:55:53
capable of doing these things.
00:55:54
>> So, is there any concern with China?
00:55:56
>> Yes.
00:55:57
>> What is that concern? The concern with
00:55:59
China is that the most the world
00:56:01
changing new technologies out there, the
00:56:03
Chinese are investing at scale and the
00:56:05
Chinese are now either at parody or
00:56:08
ahead of the Americans and everyone else
00:56:10
by a long margin in many of the core
00:56:13
technologies that matter most in the
00:56:14
world.
00:56:15
>> And what does that potentially mean that
00:56:17
is worth paying attention to? Why does
00:56:19
that matter?
00:56:20
>> It means that they can set the rules.
00:56:21
They can set the standards. They can
00:56:23
sell the products that you need them.
00:56:25
that if they determine that they're
00:56:26
going to shut you off, you're dead,
00:56:28
right? I mean, think about what
00:56:29
happened. The Europeans were so
00:56:31
dependent on Russia for gas and for oil.
00:56:35
And the Russians invade Ukraine, they
00:56:37
want to shut it down, and it destroys
00:56:39
the European economy. The Americans are
00:56:41
doing just fine. The Americans are
00:56:43
building and get so many of their
00:56:45
semiconductors from TSMC in Taiwan. I'm
00:56:48
sure you've talked about that before in
00:56:49
your show. Well, what happens if China
00:56:51
decides that they want to cut that off?
00:56:53
If they have that capacity, the
00:56:54
Americans are really screwed. So you
00:56:56
don't want to be in a position where one
00:56:59
country, an adversarial country that you
00:57:02
don't trust, have a good relationship
00:57:03
with suddenly produces all this stuff
00:57:06
that you desperately need or your
00:57:07
economy will fall apart. And yet that is
00:57:10
the the the the trajectory where
00:57:12
president if China if China had
00:57:14
elections coming up in November, I'd be
00:57:17
worried, right? Because, you know, you
00:57:20
can just imagine a situation where the
00:57:21
Chinese being more short-term would say,
00:57:23
"Well, look, the Americans are
00:57:25
distracted with Iran and the Europeans
00:57:27
are distracted with Ukraine. Now is our
00:57:28
time for Taiwan because we really want
00:57:30
to get like all that support. So, let's
00:57:32
jin it up." Chinese aren't doing short-
00:57:34
term at all. They're doing long-term.
00:57:36
The Chinese are thinking for 10 years
00:57:38
down the road, 20 years down the road,
00:57:39
and they're investing that way. They're
00:57:41
taking very little risk. They're making
00:57:43
no regret moves to set themselves up
00:57:46
long term while the Americans are doing
00:57:48
all this short-term stuff, all this
00:57:50
electoral cycle stuff. That's the worry.
00:57:52
If the the Americans the biggest danger
00:57:54
to the United States, not China, it's
00:57:56
America. It's America getting in its own
00:57:59
way and not investing in having the best
00:58:01
products, the most competitiveness, the
00:58:03
most attractive place to study, the most
00:58:05
attractive place to live, the most
00:58:07
attractive place to work. This has had
00:58:11
probably the single biggest impact on my
00:58:13
office. Of all the products that I've
00:58:15
tried that have given me productivity
00:58:17
gains or cognitive boosts, I would say
00:58:19
that exogenous ketones are in the top
00:58:22
three most pivotal things that have
00:58:25
given me massive productivity gain. It's
00:58:26
some Stanford graduates that have been
00:58:28
able to basically bottle up the effect
00:58:30
you get from being in a ketogenic diet
00:58:33
in a small shot that you can take that
00:58:36
makes you feel incredibly focused and
00:58:38
gives your brain an incredible source of
00:58:40
energy. And the clinical studies that
00:58:41
have been done on exogenous ketones have
00:58:43
absolutely blown my mind. I reached out
00:58:44
to them. I became a coiner in the
00:58:46
company. I became an investor in the
00:58:48
company. And so it's with great pride
00:58:49
that I can tell you that this exists. If
00:58:51
you haven't tried these shots, go to
00:58:53
ketone.com/stephven
00:58:55
for 30% off your subscription order, and
00:58:57
you'll also get a free gift with your
00:58:59
second shipment. I still buy my ketone
00:59:01
shots predominantly online. But
00:59:03
thankfully, I can now grab them at
00:59:04
Target whenever I drive past them here
00:59:06
in the United States as well, because
00:59:07
we're now stocked in Target, where your
00:59:09
first shot is completely free. I'm 100%
00:59:12
more productive using this app despite
00:59:15
spending 50% less time typing. And that
00:59:17
might confuse you, but let me explain,
00:59:19
which is exactly why I invested in
00:59:20
Whisper Flow. They're also one of our
00:59:23
sponsors on this podcast. Whisper Flow
00:59:25
turns your speech into text, so you can
00:59:27
send it in any app or device at any
00:59:30
time. And I promise you, it doesn't seem
00:59:31
to ever make mistakes. This is the most
00:59:34
accurate voice dictation I have ever
00:59:36
used after a decade of trying to get one
00:59:38
to work. Not only does it save me a ton
00:59:40
of time, it also corrects your speech if
00:59:42
you change your mind mid-sentence before
00:59:44
turning it into text on the device. I
00:59:46
love it and I know my team loves it too
00:59:47
because when I posted it in our Slack
00:59:48
channel asking if anybody wanted a pro
00:59:50
version, half the office said yes and
00:59:52
they had it within an hour which tells
00:59:54
me everything. This is the tool you and
00:59:56
your team need to speed yourselves up
00:59:58
and to capture those important ideas so
01:00:01
that they don't disappear. Head over to
01:00:03
whisperflow.ai/stephven
01:00:06
to download it now. That's wispr
01:00:09
lw.ai/stephven.
01:00:13
you um did a TED talk two years ago in
01:00:17
June. It was published in June 14th,
01:00:19
2023 and it's done tens of millions of
01:00:22
views on YouTube. It is titled the next
01:00:24
global superpower is not who you think.
01:00:28
Yeah.
01:00:28
>> And I was looking at the comment section
01:00:30
earlier and the some of the top comments
01:00:32
are you called it a year ago and you
01:00:34
were 100% right. There's another one
01:00:36
here saying hello writing to you from a
01:00:39
year in the future. I have some bad news
01:00:40
about 2025.
01:00:42
You were right. What were you right
01:00:45
about?
01:00:46
>> I was I guess what they're saying I this
01:00:50
you and I have been talking about the US
01:00:51
and China and traditional geopolitics.
01:00:54
What I was saying is that increasingly
01:00:56
the world is moving beyond geopolitics
01:00:58
and that the most important new global
01:01:01
leaders aren't countries, they're
01:01:03
technology companies that are writing
01:01:05
their own rules. I was looking how the
01:01:08
Russian invasion of Ukraine that that
01:01:10
war started not on the 24th of February
01:01:12
but the 23rd of February when Microsoft
01:01:16
found out about all of the cyber strikes
01:01:19
that were hitting Ukraine and made the
01:01:21
US government and the Ukrainian
01:01:22
government aware of it. I look at Elon
01:01:23
Musk and providing Starlink. If it
01:01:26
wasn't for that, I'm not sure that the
01:01:28
Ukrainian government was going to be
01:01:29
able to fight these guys on the ground.
01:01:31
They wouldn't have been able to
01:01:32
communicate. Silinski might be gone.
01:01:34
These are companies. The US government
01:01:36
at that point was scared about sending
01:01:38
all the military support, but the
01:01:39
companies were making a big difference.
01:01:41
Now I see that these new AI tools like
01:01:45
we saw with Anthropic and Mythos.
01:01:48
>> For anyone that doesn't know, Anthropic
01:01:51
released a new AI model, which they say
01:01:53
is so capable that it presents the world
01:01:56
with a really fundamental security risk
01:01:59
to all of our technology. They say in
01:02:00
their report that in testing this new
01:02:04
model, this new um type of AI could find
01:02:08
security vulnerabilities in lots of
01:02:10
different applications and software
01:02:12
applications that we use. So essentially
01:02:14
it posed a cyber security risk. It could
01:02:16
hack
01:02:17
>> a lot of banks and
01:02:19
>> critical infrastructure, your power
01:02:21
grid, water systems, anything with
01:02:24
software. and and not just like the
01:02:27
things that a hacker could get to, but
01:02:29
every bug that could be exploited. So,
01:02:32
it's so powerful that they couldn't
01:02:35
release it because it would have been an
01:02:37
immediate systemic risk to the global
01:02:40
economy and our security.
01:02:42
>> And do you believe them? I say this
01:02:44
because I heard some people debating
01:02:45
whether this was marketing talk for them
01:02:48
as a company to say, "Look, look how
01:02:49
powerful we are that we're not going to
01:02:51
release this model because it's it's
01:02:52
going to cause that much harm." or do
01:02:54
you think they are being responsible?
01:02:57
>> It is inconceivable to me that a company
01:02:59
that is this capable of raising money
01:03:02
and this capable of talking to the
01:03:04
markets is not going to have a
01:03:06
communication strategy that is fully
01:03:08
aligned with that.
01:03:09
>> So of course there's marketing here,
01:03:12
>> but this was a real risk. When you have
01:03:15
Jerome Powell, the chief of the Fed, and
01:03:18
Scott Bessent, the Secretary of
01:03:20
Treasury, looking at this and
01:03:22
immediately calling an urgent meeting of
01:03:24
all the CEOs of the banks, saying, "We
01:03:27
have to deploy this internally." And you
01:03:30
have JP Morgan, Jamie Diamond, is by far
01:03:32
the best at cyber security in terms of
01:03:36
the big banks and the big US
01:03:37
institutions and considers this a five
01:03:40
alarm fire. I I take this very
01:03:42
seriously. Mhm.
01:03:43
>> I think this is actually a big deal that
01:03:45
also happens to be useful for anthropics
01:03:48
marketing, not least because Anthropic
01:03:50
had just been in a big fight with the
01:03:52
defense department and the US defense
01:03:54
department saying we don't want these
01:03:55
anthropic guys because like they're not
01:03:58
they're woke, right? I mean, they don't
01:04:00
they refuse to let us use and deploy
01:04:03
their AI in our targeting or our
01:04:06
surveillance. So, we're going to take
01:04:07
them out of our system. Well, turns out
01:04:08
you can't afford to take these guys
01:04:10
completely out of your system because
01:04:11
what they're doing is too important for
01:04:13
American national security. So, the
01:04:15
timing is convenient from that
01:04:16
perspective. But this risk is real and
01:04:19
it's real because it needs to be
01:04:21
deployed immediately to find these bugs
01:04:24
and to patch them before other people
01:04:27
have those tools because other people
01:04:28
will have these tools in very short
01:04:30
order.
01:04:31
>> And so on the scale of risks that we
01:04:34
have in front of us here, critical,
01:04:35
severe,
01:04:36
>> yep, also severe. Okay,
01:04:37
>> again would be critical if we were
01:04:39
talking about two years out because
01:04:41
we're talking about this year and it's
01:04:42
already April. It just happened. I would
01:04:44
say severe, but my god, underappreciated
01:04:46
because the amount of attention this
01:04:48
gets on headlines
01:04:50
>> compared to Iran or Venezuela compared
01:04:53
to China is still tiny.
01:04:55
>> And is that because of unemployment
01:04:57
because AI is going to take our jobs or
01:04:58
is it something else? Is it the nuclear?
01:05:00
What is it? No, I mean if if what I just
01:05:04
mentioned with anthropic, like if
01:05:05
suddenly your systems are hackable by
01:05:09
anyone that has access to this tool,
01:05:12
your markets are going to go down. Your
01:05:14
banks aren't going to work. Your data is
01:05:16
going to be stolen. You know, your your
01:05:18
imagine if the Russians have that
01:05:20
capacity, what they would do with it. If
01:05:21
the Iranians today had that capacity,
01:05:23
what they would do with it, they will.
01:05:25
the these AI tools are are becoming
01:05:28
available to anyone with a laptop or a
01:05:31
cell phone. So I mean suddenly in the
01:05:34
same way that the war in Russia Ukraine,
01:05:36
Russia is much bigger than Ukraine and
01:05:38
yet in the last 3 months Ukraine has
01:05:40
actually taken territory back from
01:05:42
Russia. How is that possible? Technology
01:05:44
drones, right? They have become the most
01:05:47
capable drone producer in the world at
01:05:50
scale. so much that when the Iranians
01:05:52
were attacked by the United States and
01:05:54
they counter hit, what did the Americans
01:05:56
do? They called Zalinski, remember the
01:05:57
guy that didn't say thank you in the
01:05:59
White House, and they said, "Could we
01:06:01
have your help with your drone
01:06:03
technologies in figuring out how we
01:06:05
combat Iran for our Gulf allies?" So
01:06:08
technology is changing the world so
01:06:10
fast, and it turns out that the biggest
01:06:13
way it's changing our security and the
01:06:14
economy is AI. on this point of AI. I
01:06:17
actually was watching a video this
01:06:19
morning before you arrived, which I I
01:06:20
thought I'd show you because um it's
01:06:22
quite it's quite dystopian, but what
01:06:25
you'll see in this video is true and
01:06:27
it's happening around the world and I
01:06:28
don't think anybody has any ideas. This
01:06:31
is the video. I'll play it for those of
01:06:34
you that are looking at the screen at
01:06:35
the moment. Can you tell what's going on
01:06:36
in this video
01:06:40
from watching it?
01:06:41
It looks to me um like uh they're uh the
01:06:46
work that they are doing is being uh
01:06:49
monitored real time. Um presumably by
01:06:52
some external source. Um you're going to
01:06:55
suggest to me that the external source
01:06:57
that's monitoring them is not a human
01:06:58
being but is artificial intelligence.
01:07:01
>> Yes. Kind of. What's happening is a
01:07:04
company has paid these Indian workers to
01:07:06
wear cameras on their heads
01:07:08
>> to watch their hands.
01:07:09
>> Yeah.
01:07:10
>> To train the AI so that the AI can do
01:07:14
that job in the future
01:07:15
>> to remove the workers from those jobs.
01:07:18
>> Yes.
01:07:18
>> Yeah.
01:07:19
>> So it's kind of like sitting on the
01:07:20
branch of a tree and you yourself
01:07:22
cutting the There's this meme I'll throw
01:07:24
up on the screen. It's of a guy sat on
01:07:26
the branch of a tree and he's cutting
01:07:27
the branch himself. And what you're
01:07:29
seeing here is because the AI companies
01:07:32
and the robotics companies need real
01:07:34
world data of these jobs being done,
01:07:36
they're now asking the workers in the
01:07:38
factories to record themselves doing it
01:07:40
so that they can replace them.
01:07:41
>> Yeah.
01:07:43
>> It's um I laugh because it's slightly
01:07:45
terrifying. It's slightly terrifying and
01:07:47
yet it's also slightly empowering
01:07:49
depending on what we decide to do with
01:07:52
the wealth that comes from this because
01:07:54
let's face it, most human beings do not
01:07:58
want that work to be what
01:08:01
self-actualizes them.
01:08:02
>> What kind of political system do you
01:08:04
need or social system do you need in
01:08:05
such a world where a lot of the work
01:08:08
that we do today is being done by these
01:08:10
intelligent machines and a huge amount
01:08:12
of people don't have work? I was saying
01:08:14
to you before we started recording, a
01:08:15
friend of mine called me the other day
01:08:16
and he had had a conversation with one
01:08:18
of the most successful technologists in
01:08:20
the world that everybody knows and he
01:08:22
said next year is the year where the
01:08:24
unemployment because of AI really will
01:08:26
take hold and people are going to get
01:08:28
increasingly
01:08:30
annoyed. They also said that they think
01:08:32
the Democrats, even though I think this
01:08:34
person might be Republican, they think
01:08:36
the Democrats are going to win the
01:08:37
election because the impact of AI is
01:08:39
going to be so severe next year in terms
01:08:40
of employ unemployment that people are
01:08:42
going to associate the Republicans with
01:08:44
being the pro AAI party. And I saw
01:08:46
another report last week saying that AI
01:08:48
is now less popular than ICE in the
01:08:50
United States. And just as a podcaster
01:08:52
who has conversations about this, I know
01:08:54
people are are not happy. I know they're
01:08:57
not happy. I see it in the comment
01:08:59
section in part because we don't see it
01:09:01
flowing down and making people's lives
01:09:02
better. We see major corporations
01:09:05
getting richer.
01:09:06
>> And so the funny thing that video you
01:09:08
showed me, most people in the global
01:09:11
south are very excited, enthusiastic
01:09:13
about AI because they think it's going
01:09:15
to give them tools to improve their
01:09:17
human capital, to improve their
01:09:19
opportunities. China, the Chinese are
01:09:21
very excited about AI because they think
01:09:24
that it's going to make their lives
01:09:26
better. Mhm.
01:09:27
>> The Americans, the Europeans are not.
01:09:31
They worry that this is actually going
01:09:34
to undermine their jobs, particularly
01:09:35
their white collar jobs,
01:09:37
>> uh their knowledge worker jobs. And and
01:09:40
what I think is going to happen
01:09:41
politically, I I I don't agree that
01:09:43
we're going to see massive unemployment
01:09:44
in the US next year. I think there's
01:09:46
going to be much more friction. And most
01:09:48
CEOs don't want to get rid of a lot of
01:09:52
their workers unless they have to. So
01:09:53
unless there's a major economic downturn
01:09:55
that gives them that excuse, I think
01:09:57
it's going to take a lot longer. And I
01:09:59
also think that social mobilization long
01:10:01
shoreman in the United States like said
01:10:03
no AI, you're going to protect our jobs.
01:10:04
And they were willing to actually
01:10:05
demonstrate. They mobilized and it kept
01:10:07
AI out. There'll be a lot of like, you
01:10:10
know, resistance that will slow this
01:10:13
process down. But what I do think is
01:10:15
going to happen, I think you'll see it
01:10:16
politically. I was talking to uh someone
01:10:20
I know um reasonably well uh a senator,
01:10:23
US senator who was saying uh can't talk
01:10:26
right now and prochecknology person pro
01:10:28
business person centrist right someone
01:10:30
you and I would recognize as such say I
01:10:33
can't talk about data centers I've never
01:10:35
seen people my constituents so upset
01:10:39
about an issue as they do about data
01:10:41
centers
01:10:41
>> AI data centers
01:10:42
>> AI they said that no jobs energy prices
01:10:45
going up water prices going up. Zoning
01:10:48
looks horrible in their neighborhoods.
01:10:50
They're growing like topsy. Huge amount
01:10:52
of investment. Everyone hates these
01:10:53
things. I I mean Trump in the United
01:10:56
States won on the back of a lot of men
01:11:00
who many of whom had good jobs and were
01:11:03
making good money, but they didn't
01:11:05
necessarily have advanced degrees.
01:11:07
>> And they felt like the world was moving
01:11:08
away from them. They saw robotics and
01:11:10
automation on their factory lines. They
01:11:12
saw free trade and jobs going to much
01:11:15
poorer, much, you know, less expensive
01:11:17
labor around the world, China
01:11:18
especially, but India, other countries.
01:11:20
They said they saw immigrants coming in,
01:11:22
but you're not taking care of me and my
01:11:23
family, so why am I letting that happen?
01:11:25
You see this in Europe, too. This is the
01:11:26
Nigel Farage movement. Like lots of
01:11:28
stuff, right? They voted Trump in not
01:11:31
once, but twice. Despite everything he
01:11:34
is, everything he stands for, they voted
01:11:35
for. We haven't seen women with advanced
01:11:40
degrees, urban and suburban, worried
01:11:43
about their jobs and worried about their
01:11:45
kids. And that wave of populism is
01:11:49
coming absolutely in 2028. And that is
01:11:52
AI is a very big piece of that. AI, data
01:11:55
centers, and the rest. So in that
01:11:56
regard, I agree that there's going to be
01:11:58
a real political wave here. And I don't
01:12:00
yet know who the political figures are
01:12:03
that are going to respond to that. I I
01:12:05
don't think that person today exists in
01:12:08
the political spectrum. I haven't seen
01:12:10
that person.
01:12:10
>> It appears that the least popular job or
01:12:14
least popular people in society at the
01:12:15
moment are AI CEOs. I mean, you're
01:12:18
probably seeing what um what's going on.
01:12:20
>> We saw what Sam Alman just had a you
01:12:22
know, the the Molotov cocktail that was
01:12:24
actually thrown at his uh
01:12:25
>> and then yesterday again they said
01:12:27
someone shot at his house yesterday.
01:12:29
Yeah.
01:12:29
>> Yesterday night again.
01:12:30
>> Yeah.
01:12:31
>> Which obviously nobody should support
01:12:33
violence of this type. My god, no. No,
01:12:36
but it's not surprising. And we also had
01:12:38
the CEO of United Healthcare gunned
01:12:40
down, you know, a year ago, just uh a
01:12:42
few blocks from where you and I are
01:12:44
having this conversation right now.
01:12:45
There is general anger at the elite. And
01:12:48
it's true that the wealthiest people in
01:12:50
the United States right now happen to be
01:12:52
those tech owners. Is there a solution
01:12:54
here where the technology which presents
01:12:57
us with tremendous potential upsides can
01:13:00
be be thrive and be successful and make
01:13:02
our lives better but also the average
01:13:04
person the working-class people can also
01:13:06
capitalize and benefit from this
01:13:08
technology?
01:13:09
>> Of course there is.
01:13:10
>> What does that look like?
01:13:11
>> Well, I mean first of all these
01:13:12
technologies are already doing
01:13:14
extraordinary things in improving
01:13:17
productivity and in reducing waste. I
01:13:20
mean, recycling doesn't work very well,
01:13:22
but with AI, you can recycle in a way
01:13:24
that would allow you to actually get
01:13:27
that trash product back into a
01:13:31
productive format. Who wouldn't want the
01:13:34
ability to make micro adjustments in um
01:13:38
the way that an airplane is navigating
01:13:41
real time because of AI that reduces
01:13:44
fuel consumption by 10%. Or improve
01:13:46
agricultural use. In Ethiopia, you've
01:13:49
got over a hundred million people and
01:13:51
they don't know what to plant and where
01:13:53
and when. Suddenly, you optimize for
01:13:55
that. They have cheaper food. Like the
01:13:57
these are amazing things. Every day I
01:14:00
see uses for these technologies in
01:14:02
companies around the world that blow my
01:14:05
mind. But I also see and again I focus
01:14:08
on politics. And if we blow ourselves
01:14:11
up, it's not going to be because of
01:14:12
technology. If we blow ourselves up,
01:14:14
it's going to be because of people and
01:14:15
politics.
01:14:17
What do you mean by that?
01:14:18
>> That the system is deploying these
01:14:20
technologies in inhumane ways. It's
01:14:24
allowing the benefits of the
01:14:26
opportunities to be captured by a small
01:14:29
number of individuals, a small number of
01:14:31
companies that write their own rules and
01:14:34
don't care about people that are getting
01:14:35
angry. So when you ask, violence is the
01:14:38
wrong thing. But if you're seeing that
01:14:40
people are getting so angry that they're
01:14:43
starting to do things that they see the
01:14:45
only way that they think that they can
01:14:47
respond is outside of the legal
01:14:49
framework. It's not by voting for
01:14:51
somebody new, but it's by mass action or
01:14:54
even violent action. Then the politics
01:14:56
are really broken.
01:14:57
>> So, do we need like universal basic
01:14:58
income or something? or does there need
01:15:00
to be an AI tax or
01:15:01
>> I don't think that you go from everybody
01:15:04
has a full-time job or aspires to a
01:15:06
full-time job to universal basic income
01:15:10
in a year. I I I don't think that
01:15:11
happens. But I could easily see pilot
01:15:14
programs that say instead of a five-day
01:15:17
work week in the following areas that we
01:15:20
think are going to be disrupted, it's
01:15:22
going to be a 4-day work week or 3-day
01:15:24
work week. And we're going to pay you
01:15:25
the same amount of money, but that
01:15:26
additional day every week is going to be
01:15:29
on AI training that will allow you to
01:15:33
have a job. either be more effective in
01:15:35
your existing job because the only the
01:15:38
people that know how to deploy these
01:15:39
tools are going to have a job another
01:15:40
three or five years or will allow you to
01:15:42
transition. But you've got to start
01:15:44
spending the money on that now. And this
01:15:47
that that guy that you had that
01:15:49
conversation with, I've been watching
01:15:51
him publicly. He's not part of the
01:15:53
solution. He's saying I think the
01:15:55
Democrats are going to win. Oh well,
01:15:57
I'll be fine. I'm still worth a lot of
01:15:58
money, but I'm not going to do anything
01:16:00
to actually help facilitate this. Like
01:16:02
if you if the people that are most
01:16:06
capable of being aware of these
01:16:09
challenges and of addressing them are
01:16:12
instead all in winner take all mode,
01:16:15
then obviously we're going to have a
01:16:18
breakdown in society.
01:16:22
It's a tricky situation, isn't it?
01:16:23
Because we've seen what happens when
01:16:25
governments get involved in technology
01:16:27
sometimes, you know, even in the UK for
01:16:30
and the European Union. Bloody hell. I
01:16:32
remember speaking to I don't know if I
01:16:34
have permission to say his name either,
01:16:36
but he is the CTO of one of the biggest
01:16:37
technology companies in the world and he
01:16:39
was explaining to me that they can't
01:16:41
release their features. This particular
01:16:43
piece of hardware, we can't even release
01:16:44
it in Europe because the European Union
01:16:46
have so much regulation.
01:16:48
>> Yeah.
01:16:48
>> That they've actually created a bunch of
01:16:51
issues for us as companies. One of them
01:16:52
was that in this particular device, the
01:16:55
European Union demand that the battery
01:16:57
can be taken out and put back in again.
01:17:00
And what this actually means, he was
01:17:02
explaining to me, is that we're going to
01:17:03
have to buy loads of batteries and keep
01:17:05
them on the shelf and then they're going
01:17:07
to go bad and actually it's going to be
01:17:08
worse for the environment, but also it
01:17:10
means that the devices are no longer
01:17:11
waterproof. So more devices are going to
01:17:14
break, which is even worse for the
01:17:15
environment. And this overregulation
01:17:17
that's
01:17:18
>> which means that the Europeans are
01:17:19
nowhere in terms of competitive.
01:17:21
>> They know they're not competitive.
01:17:22
>> So he and you know what he said to me?
01:17:23
He goes, um, and I don't think what the
01:17:25
Europeans don't realize is we just don't
01:17:26
need their market anymore. He said
01:17:27
Brazil's coming online and all these
01:17:29
other big markets are coming online as
01:17:31
buyers. So we just can decide just to
01:17:32
not sell to to Europe.
01:17:34
>> So there are three systems out there,
01:17:35
right? Broadly speaking, one system, the
01:17:38
United States system, most power in the
01:17:41
hands of the private sector so much so
01:17:43
that they're able to capture the
01:17:45
regulatory process, write their own
01:17:47
regulations. That turns out that system
01:17:49
drives an enormous amount of growth and
01:17:52
wealth. The problem is that lots of
01:17:54
average Americans do not benefit from
01:17:56
it. Mhm.
01:17:57
>> Because nobody is looking out for them.
01:17:59
Then they get angry and then they lash
01:18:00
out, right? The Chinese system where the
01:18:03
state actually captures the private
01:18:06
sector and they say what the private
01:18:08
sector can and can't do. And frequently
01:18:10
they own the private sector, state-owned
01:18:11
enterprises, right? And that system
01:18:14
drives an enormous amount of growth over
01:18:16
the long term, but the people have no
01:18:19
say over what is and what is not
01:18:21
allowed. And that creates a lot of
01:18:23
dissent and this lying flat. we're not a
01:18:26
part of the system and the solution.
01:18:27
Then you have the Europeans and the
01:18:29
European system is very oriented towards
01:18:33
we want to make sure that the social
01:18:34
contract works for the citizens. We're
01:18:36
very interested in like having all of
01:18:39
the benefits that people need, but we
01:18:41
can't afford them because our system is
01:18:43
so heavily regulated and so anti-
01:18:45
entrepreneurial that we don't drive the
01:18:46
growth that would be necessary to keep
01:18:48
paying for the people. Right? So
01:18:51
obviously each of these systems have
01:18:53
challenges but the problem comes not in
01:18:56
the nature of the system but in when
01:18:58
they become extreme. Americans today
01:19:01
want a new deal whatever that new deal
01:19:04
looks like. And Trump won because of
01:19:06
that. He won because he positioned
01:19:08
himself as the outsider that would make
01:19:12
sure those things happen. Right? He was
01:19:14
the guy that was going to end the wars.
01:19:16
He was the guy that was going to invest
01:19:17
in the United States. America first, not
01:19:20
these other countries first. People like
01:19:22
that. Take care of your people. That's
01:19:24
what they want. People are voting for
01:19:26
very simple things. They want to be
01:19:28
taken care of. They want to have
01:19:30
opportunities for themselves and their
01:19:31
families and their communities. They
01:19:32
don't want to feel despair. That's what
01:19:34
the American dream was all about. That's
01:19:36
why my grandparents came here. My
01:19:38
grandma, Armenian, you know, fled her
01:19:40
family fled the genocide. She came on
01:19:42
Ellis Island. That's why I'm here. I
01:19:45
came and I started a company in a land
01:19:46
that had great opportunity. But most
01:19:48
Americans don't believe that applies to
01:19:50
them anymore. And you asking me all
01:19:53
these questions about AI. The answer is
01:19:55
very simple. Give these people the
01:19:57
opportunity to create a dream for
01:19:59
themselves and their families in their
01:20:01
own countries. If they don't have that,
01:20:03
they will eventually revolt against you.
01:20:06
>> Is that what history tells us happens
01:20:07
next in such a situation where the
01:20:09
people feel more and more powerless and
01:20:11
they feel like they have less and less
01:20:12
opportunity?
01:20:13
>> It doesn't happen everywhere. I mean,
01:20:15
let's face it. We've got 25 million
01:20:17
people in North Korea that have been,
01:20:19
you know, ruled by, you know, a cult
01:20:22
figure who they essentially worship for
01:20:25
decades now. So, history doesn't
01:20:27
necessarily tell us that it the story
01:20:29
always goes well. But in a democracy,
01:20:31
>> in a democracy, sometimes democracies go
01:20:35
bad. But what we see frequently is push
01:20:39
back against people that are
01:20:41
kleptocratic, but it's people that put
01:20:43
themselves above the system. And we've
01:20:46
seen that in many cases in many
01:20:48
democracies all over the world. 70% of
01:20:51
people who add something to their online
01:20:52
cart never actually buy it. And that
01:20:54
number is based on over 10 years of
01:20:56
research. But what I think is even more
01:20:58
interesting is what the Bayard Institute
01:21:00
discovered. They're a private research
01:21:01
company that ran a study which found the
01:21:04
average e-commerce store can increase
01:21:05
its conversion rate by 35% just by
01:21:09
making its checkout easier. Not better
01:21:11
marketing or better products, but by
01:21:12
delivering a smoother checkout
01:21:14
experience. So, if you're looking for an
01:21:16
easy way to make your checkout process
01:21:18
smoother, I want you to think about
01:21:19
moving your business onto Shopify. It's
01:21:20
the platform we use to sell the 1%
01:21:22
diaries and the conversation cards
01:21:24
because it's so simple and smart to use.
01:21:27
It puts all of our inventory, payments,
01:21:28
and analytics in one place and has so
01:21:31
many AI tools to help us get up and
01:21:33
running straight away. Not to mention
01:21:34
that it grows with you regardless of the
01:21:36
stage that your business is at. So, if
01:21:38
you're ready to fix your checkout
01:21:39
process, sign up for your $1 per month
01:21:42
trial at shopify.com/bartlet.
01:21:46
That's shopify.com/bartlet.
01:21:48
And don't tell anybody.
01:21:50
We have finally caved in. So many of you
01:21:53
have asked us if we could bundle the
01:21:55
conversation cards with the 1% diary.
01:21:57
For those of you that don't know, every
01:21:59
single time a guest sits here with me in
01:22:00
the chair, they leave a question in the
01:22:02
diary of a CEO and then I ask that
01:22:04
question to the next guest. We don't
01:22:05
release those questions in any
01:22:07
environment other than on these
01:22:09
incredible conversation cards. These
01:22:11
have become a fantastic tool for people
01:22:13
in relationships, people in teams, in
01:22:15
big corporations, and also family
01:22:17
members to connect with each other. With
01:22:18
that, we also have the 1% diary, which
01:22:20
is this incredible tool to change habits
01:22:22
in your life. So many of you have asked
01:22:24
if it was possible to buy both at the
01:22:26
same time, especially people in big
01:22:29
companies. So, what we've done is we've
01:22:31
bundled them together and you can buy
01:22:32
both at the same time. And if you want
01:22:34
to drive connection and instill habit
01:22:36
change in your company, head to the
01:22:38
diary.com to inquire and our team will
01:22:40
be in touch.
01:22:42
I think the part that I still have this
01:22:43
big question mark in my head about is
01:22:46
what you do about that. I was reading
01:22:48
this morning that Jeff Bezos is
01:22:49
investing or raising money raising a
01:22:51
hundred billion dollars for I think it's
01:22:53
called Project Prometheus which is his
01:22:55
own AI company. Um you've got Elon with
01:22:58
XAI, you've got Anthropic, you got
01:23:00
Dermis at Google and Sundar, you've got
01:23:03
OpenAI, Sam Alman, you've got all these
01:23:05
big tech CEOs that are trying to sort of
01:23:08
raise super intelligence like like it's
01:23:11
a child.
01:23:11
>> Yeah. And if they are to be successful,
01:23:13
one would one would assert that
01:23:15
intelligence itself is the most powerful
01:23:17
commod like currency or commodity that
01:23:18
there isn't on planet earth. So those
01:23:20
that you wield it
01:23:21
>> and commodity is right because Alman
01:23:23
talks about you're going to need to pay
01:23:24
for intelligence the way you pay for
01:23:26
water.
01:23:27
>> Yeah.
01:23:27
>> Or pay for G and that that average
01:23:29
American hears that and goes what what
01:23:32
I'm going to have to pay for
01:23:33
intelligence.
01:23:33
>> Yeah.
01:23:34
>> That that feels like something we have
01:23:35
free will over. Suddenly you don't.
01:23:36
Suddenly a company has control over
01:23:38
that. You know, if you had a wand and
01:23:40
you could wave the wand and solve this
01:23:42
techno oligarchy. Yeah.
01:23:44
>> What would you do?
01:23:45
>> I want three things. I want three types
01:23:48
of governance.
01:23:49
>> First, I I want to make sure um that the
01:23:54
United States and China start to have AI
01:23:57
arms control conversations. When we were
01:24:00
fighting the Soviets, there were no arms
01:24:02
control discussions until after 1962
01:24:05
Cuban Missile Crisis. We almost blew up
01:24:07
the entire world. That was super
01:24:10
dangerous with much much lower levels of
01:24:12
technology. And then after that we said,
01:24:14
"Oh, maybe we should like have a have a
01:24:16
hotline between the two leaders. Oh,
01:24:18
maybe we should have deconliction. Maybe
01:24:19
we should not invest in certain areas.
01:24:21
Maybe we shouldn't try to develop Star
01:24:23
Wars defense, for example. Maybe we
01:24:24
should have some arms control agreements
01:24:26
that limit, you know, what we do so that
01:24:28
it's safer." We desperately need that
01:24:30
between the Americans and the Chinese.
01:24:32
That's number one. Number one. Second
01:24:34
thing we need the financial markets. We
01:24:38
all need the financial markets, right?
01:24:40
We we need we need them systemically.
01:24:42
When there's a financial crisis, the
01:24:43
whole world comes together to get out of
01:24:46
the financial crisis. And it doesn't
01:24:47
matter if you're capitalist or
01:24:48
communist, the People's Bank of China,
01:24:50
the European Central Bank, the Bank of
01:24:52
England, the Fed, they all work together
01:24:54
because they are first and foremost
01:24:57
technocrats who understand that we need
01:24:59
the markets to function. You need
01:25:02
something like that for AI. in an AI
01:25:04
stability board so that whenever there
01:25:06
is a model that creates a danger to us
01:25:10
globally like Anthropic just did last
01:25:13
week that model is dangerous to all of
01:25:15
us globally because any software with a
01:25:18
potential bug in it is findable by that
01:25:20
model and it can be exploited that's
01:25:22
incredibly dangerous weapon so we don't
01:25:24
want everyone to have that so you need
01:25:27
at scale because everyone's going to
01:25:28
develop this stuff you need an AI
01:25:30
stability board like the financial
01:25:31
stability board that is governed by
01:25:33
technocrats, by people that have an
01:25:36
independent capacity to identify threats
01:25:39
to the systemic environment, the AI
01:25:42
environment that we need to work that
01:25:44
can communicate that to the people that
01:25:46
have power and that can immediately
01:25:49
attack and address it. Right? That's the
01:25:51
second thing we need. We don't have that
01:25:52
yet. The third thing we need is we have
01:25:56
to have an ability to fund AI for people
01:26:01
that otherwise would not be able to take
01:26:03
advantage of it. We've got half of
01:26:06
Africa that doesn't have electricity.
01:26:08
The the gap between people with
01:26:10
electricity and people that don't have
01:26:11
electricity is going to be a hell of a
01:26:13
lot worse when it's AI. It's going to be
01:26:16
a gap between people that act like
01:26:18
empowered human beings, hybrid
01:26:20
individuals that have AI as a principal
01:26:23
relationship and can deploy that
01:26:24
knowledge and people that we won't even
01:26:26
treat as human beings
01:26:27
>> like a different species almost
01:26:28
>> like a different species. That's
01:26:30
unacceptable. We can't allow humanity to
01:26:32
develop that way. So, we have to spend
01:26:35
the money to ensure that everyone has
01:26:38
access. We aren't close to that. What
01:26:39
about the domestic economy here in the
01:26:41
United States or in I know the UK or any
01:26:43
of these countries that are developing
01:26:44
the technology.
01:26:45
>> Same as the last point. It's the exact
01:26:46
same.
01:26:47
>> Okay. So, you've got to also fund.
01:26:49
>> Yeah. It can't just be global. I mean,
01:26:50
the Americans will not care about this
01:26:52
if this is like for subsaharan Africa.
01:26:53
They'll whatever, right? It's them. I'm
01:26:55
saying this is something that is
01:26:56
necessary for humanity. But when I
01:26:58
looked at our our teas going around the
01:27:01
moon, we're looking down. I don't see
01:27:04
borders. I see 8 billion people. I mean,
01:27:06
if anyone that that came down that
01:27:08
wasn't being shot up from the earth and
01:27:10
came down, anyone that came down to the
01:27:11
earth would look at us and they say,
01:27:13
"Oh, look at this. 8 billion people,
01:27:15
they don't see borders, right?" And and
01:27:17
the first thing they would learn if they
01:27:18
learned how we actually operate with our
01:27:21
8 billion people is, "Wow, you guys,
01:27:23
given the technology you're developing,
01:27:24
you have nowhere near adequate
01:27:26
governance for your 8 billion people.
01:27:27
you guys are all divided into and all of
01:27:30
these short-term decisions you're making
01:27:32
that are so inefficient and you are
01:27:35
you're going to destroy yourselves.
01:27:36
That's what they'd say. That's what they
01:27:38
say. And and and I say that as a person
01:27:41
who is a citizen of the country that
01:27:42
created the United Nations because we
01:27:44
understood the last time we almost
01:27:46
destroyed ourselves in a world war. We
01:27:48
can't do that anymore. So we need more
01:27:51
global governance. We need more forums
01:27:54
that bring everyone together, not that
01:27:55
divide us apart. We're not heading in
01:27:56
that direction right now.
01:27:57
>> We are not heading in that direction
01:27:58
right now.
01:27:59
>> Yes.
01:28:01
>> I mean, we're certainly heading in the
01:28:02
opposite direction in every sense of the
01:28:03
word.
01:28:03
>> In the opposite direction in most senses
01:28:05
of the word, but technologically, one
01:28:08
could imagine that we're developing the
01:28:10
tools that will help us move in that
01:28:13
direction if we wish to.
01:28:14
>> There is another version of the future,
01:28:16
isn't there? Uh sometimes I question
01:28:18
whether it's possible because the human
01:28:19
condition is so
01:28:21
you know contaminated with all of these
01:28:23
um these sort of darker
01:28:26
parts of ourselves. But sometimes I
01:28:29
wonder if there is like a version of the
01:28:30
future which is utopia.
01:28:33
>> I don't see how there isn't. I mean I
01:28:34
don't I don't see how you allow human
01:28:36
beings to create the kind of tools that
01:28:39
we have and not have the ability to use
01:28:41
them for good. The big stories of the
01:28:43
world over the past 50 years, my
01:28:46
lifetime, those big stories have been
01:28:48
about growth. Those big stories have
01:28:50
been about how human beings are living
01:28:52
for longer with better education and
01:28:55
better healthcare and more wealth and
01:28:57
less starvation and less poverty. Those
01:29:00
have been the big stories of the last 50
01:29:02
years. Now, you can say maybe it's a
01:29:04
blip, but actually when you look at
01:29:05
humans history on the planet, it's
01:29:08
generally moved towards more capacity.
01:29:11
We've just had a couple of really bad
01:29:13
episodes
01:29:14
>> and information spreads so quickly that
01:29:16
we hear about these bad episodes in a
01:29:18
way that we wouldn't have otherwise. It
01:29:19
feels
01:29:20
>> the algorithm serving me up what's going
01:29:21
on 10,000 miles that way.
01:29:23
>> And I worry the most about that. I worry
01:29:25
the most about people getting
01:29:28
programmed. I'm not worried about
01:29:31
artificial general intelligence. I'm
01:29:33
worried about human beings becoming more
01:29:35
computer-like. When you spend all of
01:29:37
your time on your smartphone, that is a
01:29:40
computer programming a human being. And
01:29:42
we're acting more like the computer when
01:29:44
we know that we're not like that. We we
01:29:46
know that we're more like who we are
01:29:48
over the last few hours.
01:29:50
>> We're sitting here. We're having a
01:29:51
conversation with each other. I've never
01:29:53
met you before. We know a bit about each
01:29:55
other, but we're having a real
01:29:56
conversation. That's a humane
01:29:58
conversation. As soon as it gets
01:29:59
intermediated by algorithms, as soon as
01:30:02
you get programmed into a lane, we
01:30:04
become much more much more inhuman. And
01:30:06
I I worry that's why I hate prediction
01:30:08
markets. The idea that we're going to
01:30:10
instead of looking at our political
01:30:12
institutions as things that we built
01:30:14
that serve us, instead we create a
01:30:16
casino out of them, and we only care
01:30:17
about whether we're in or out of the
01:30:19
money. That that human beings don't
01:30:21
operate that way. Companies that want to
01:30:23
line their pockets make us work that
01:30:25
way. We're we're being forced away from
01:30:28
being our better selves. We need
01:30:30
regulations and governance models and
01:30:32
companies that help us be more of our
01:30:34
better selves.
01:30:35
>> What's interesting is as a podcaster,
01:30:36
you sit in this really interesting
01:30:37
position where I don't have like a boss
01:30:39
or an overlord telling me who I can
01:30:40
interview and who I can't. And my team
01:30:42
know me so well now that they would
01:30:45
never even mention
01:30:48
the implications of me interviewing
01:30:50
someone to me. And when I say that is
01:30:53
like they would never come to me and
01:30:54
say, "Stephen, you should you should
01:30:56
interview Ian, but just so you know,
01:30:58
this is his politics and if you if you
01:31:00
interview him, these people might scream
01:31:01
at you." They know me so well that they
01:31:03
would never even mention it. So I say
01:31:05
this to say that I have the opportunity
01:31:06
to be like truly independent and that
01:31:08
means that you know last week we had
01:31:09
Ivanka Trump on had Michelle Obama
01:31:11
Michelle Obama on then Kamala Harris and
01:31:13
Gavin Newsome and I've interviewed Men
01:31:15
Dani and
01:31:17
it's funny when you sit in this position
01:31:19
and you have you look at your you know
01:31:21
the list of people that want to come on
01:31:22
the show and that you've asked you know
01:31:23
can we reach out to these people and you
01:31:25
see every name and yet you know that
01:31:30
this having a conversation because of
01:31:33
the algorithms
01:31:34
with someone that half my audience don't
01:31:36
agree with is going to cause like real
01:31:38
anger. Real anger. But like it's what
01:31:41
what I also find to be really funny is
01:31:43
like when I meet these people in real
01:31:44
life that half my audience hates
01:31:47
>> for some reason
01:31:48
>> you connect with them.
01:31:49
>> I can see like a lot of the time they
01:31:52
have a disagreement about the path but
01:31:53
they all agree on the destination.
01:31:55
>> Well, no one's a villain of their own
01:31:56
story. The one thing I would tweak of
01:31:59
what you just said, you said um because
01:32:00
you're independent, you have the
01:32:01
opportunity,
01:32:03
>> right, to to do what you want and to say
01:32:05
what you want and to interview whoever
01:32:06
you want, handle you. I think you have
01:32:08
the obligation.
01:32:09
>> Yeah.
01:32:10
>> In this environment, independence is a
01:32:13
responsibility because there are so many
01:32:15
people that are not in your position or
01:32:18
my position that aren't independent that
01:32:19
can be fired and they do not have the
01:32:22
same opportunity and and instead we
01:32:24
can't be angry at those people. But we
01:32:26
have to recognize no no we we are
01:32:28
fortunate enough to be independent and
01:32:30
if you can't be fired we have an
01:32:32
obligation to be out there and above the
01:32:35
50% of people that are going to hate you
01:32:37
for whatever it is.
01:32:38
>> Can I ask you a question then? Do you
01:32:39
think I need to say something to the
01:32:41
audience on why this is so important?
01:32:45
>> Of course you do. I think I think you do
01:32:47
that through your conversations but I
01:32:48
think being mindful of it is important.
01:32:51
>> I mean it's it's about being authentic
01:32:53
to who you are. I mean, you and I may
01:32:54
not have exactly the same values. We may
01:32:56
not have the same priorities, but but if
01:32:59
you're being honest about yourself, with
01:33:01
your audience, about what matters,
01:33:04
you're doing that through your podcast,
01:33:05
your conversation. It's about never
01:33:07
selling out when you do that.
01:33:08
>> It's about never pulling back and
01:33:11
saying, "Oh, no, that that might
01:33:12
irritate someone, so I'm not going to
01:33:13
say it." That's not who you are. You
01:33:14
can't do that.
01:33:16
>> Yeah.
01:33:16
>> Right. Because again, that's that's what
01:33:17
mainstream media does, and that's why
01:33:18
they're in trouble.
01:33:20
>> I I I completely agree. And I think it's
01:33:23
funny because sometimes I think that the
01:33:24
audience might not understand that. But
01:33:27
the reality is in the real world when I
01:33:29
go outside and I speak to people, they
01:33:31
understand that and they appreciate
01:33:32
that. It's just sometimes I think vocal
01:33:34
minorities that that really don't want
01:33:37
to hear from someone that disagrees with
01:33:38
them at all. But I I just are they
01:33:40
really vocal minorities or are they
01:33:42
bots? Are they algorithmically created?
01:33:46
When you and I are on the street and
01:33:47
people come up to us, it's over and it's
01:33:50
random. It's overwhelmingly friendly.
01:33:53
>> Maybe, you know, I I think the digital
01:33:56
world is not really a human world. And
01:33:59
that's why it's so much more important
01:34:00
to do more live, just get out there.
01:34:02
Also, do more long form. The more that
01:34:04
we can do to resist the algorithm, the
01:34:06
better we'll be as a planet, the better
01:34:08
we'll be as a species.
01:34:09
>> I'm so in love with the idea of like
01:34:11
talking to people you disagree with or
01:34:13
just have a difference of opinion with.
01:34:14
I'm so in love by their I remember
01:34:16
reading a quote once that said if you
01:34:18
have the same opinion if you have the
01:34:20
same complete set of opinions as one
01:34:23
group of people those are not your
01:34:25
opinions and I find that to be really
01:34:27
really true because I can steal and take
01:34:29
ideas and opinions that I agree with
01:34:31
from almost everybody that I speak to.
01:34:33
And this is such a strange position to
01:34:34
take in an algorithmically driven world
01:34:36
where the echo chamber will un
01:34:37
unbelievably
01:34:40
reinforce and protect me if I just
01:34:42
choose a side.
01:34:42
>> That's right. And the part of my life
01:34:44
that that resists this is that my view
01:34:46
is that if you hold the same opinions as
01:34:48
the world is changing, you will be
01:34:50
wrong.
01:34:51
>> True. Yeah.
01:34:52
>> And but the algorithm doesn't want you
01:34:53
to change your views.
01:34:55
>> Is there any closing remarks that you
01:34:57
have for for the listeners based on the
01:34:58
journey we've been on?
01:34:59
>> I mean, again, I know you're based um
01:35:02
you're Brit.
01:35:03
>> I live in Los Angeles as well.
01:35:04
>> Yeah, I know. But but still, I mean, you
01:35:06
know, you got an accent and I mean, you
01:35:08
know, you're global. You four years old.
01:35:10
You bought Batswana, right? that whole
01:35:12
story. Um, I mean, the fact is that
01:35:14
you've managed to build something
01:35:17
global
01:35:19
without promoting irresponsible lies and
01:35:23
hatred and dislike. And I don't I don't
01:35:25
think you're bad for people, right? And
01:35:26
we need more of that. Look, I mean, I I
01:35:28
I think about when I think about where
01:35:30
power is coming from, it's not just tech
01:35:33
companies. It's also people outside of
01:35:36
established political force. When I was
01:35:39
a kid, I was here's what we're talking
01:35:40
about. I was in second grade, I think.
01:35:43
Uh my my teacher's name was uh Miss
01:35:45
Criticico. She was she was Greek. And
01:35:48
she was asking us, we were talking about
01:35:50
um the elections and she was asking us
01:35:52
who wanted to be president and and she
01:35:56
was talking about what it meant to be
01:35:57
president. I remember raising my hand of
01:35:59
course and everyone's talking about
01:36:00
think how cool it would be. And then all
01:36:01
of a sudden, Ian, why why why do would
01:36:03
you want to be president? And I looked
01:36:04
around and I realized that I was the
01:36:06
only person that had my hand up, which
01:36:07
did not make any sense to me at the
01:36:09
time. I would not have my hand up today.
01:36:11
I thought when I grew up, I really
01:36:13
believed that like public service was
01:36:16
the ultimate expression of how you make
01:36:18
a difference. That is no longer true.
01:36:21
But it's not because our system is so
01:36:23
broken, it's so bad. It's rather that we
01:36:25
have created all sorts of opportunities
01:36:29
for people to really make a difference
01:36:31
globally outside of political
01:36:33
institutions. And I've devoted my life
01:36:37
to that uh professionally. And I think
01:36:39
it's incredibly important, right? And
01:36:41
maybe people don't agree with me uh all
01:36:44
the time. Obviously, that's fine. But
01:36:47
they do know that I really care about
01:36:49
what I'm doing and I'm trying to get
01:36:51
better over time. That's all we can do.
01:36:53
Um and I don't think that has to be It
01:36:54
turns out I'll go through my life and
01:36:56
hopefully I'll have a long and healthy
01:36:57
life and I don't think I'll ever have
01:36:59
served in public office, but hopefully
01:37:02
continue to have more and more impact in
01:37:04
a good way over time.
01:37:05
>> Yeah. I remember I remember hearing um
01:37:07
Neil Degrass Tyson say something very
01:37:08
similar where he said the most powerful
01:37:10
people on planet earth are no longer the
01:37:12
elected. They are those that influence
01:37:14
the electorate because they end up going
01:37:16
to the polls and making that decision
01:37:17
and and so it is a huge amount of
01:37:19
responsibility in such a world for
01:37:21
people like yourself who I do think do a
01:37:22
public service and educating all of us.
01:37:24
I mean look at all these books in front
01:37:25
of me.
01:37:26
>> Um unbelievable how many books you've
01:37:28
written and how incredible they all are.
01:37:29
>> I don't know how you found them all but
01:37:30
they are out there. Yeah. Yeah. I'm
01:37:31
going to link all of them below and I
01:37:33
would ask my audience to take a look at
01:37:35
the variety of different I think this is
01:37:36
the most recent one. The power of the
01:37:37
most another one coming out next year
01:37:39
too.
01:37:40
>> Yeah.
01:37:40
>> What's the new book coming?
01:37:41
>> Don't have a title yet.
01:37:42
>> Oh, you don't have no
01:37:44
>> um The power of crisis, how three
01:37:46
threats and our response will change the
01:37:48
world. And in this book, you talk more
01:37:49
about AI as one of those threats as
01:37:52
well, but I'm going to link them all
01:37:54
below. And I highly recommend people go
01:37:55
and follow you both on your YouTube
01:37:56
channel where you make content
01:37:58
frequently about these issues as they're
01:38:00
evolving. If you want to keep in touch
01:38:01
with Ian's perspective and also over on
01:38:03
your ex page, you've got over a million
01:38:05
followers over on X. Big audience over
01:38:07
there.
01:38:07
>> We have a closing tradition on this
01:38:08
podcast when the last guest leaves a
01:38:09
question for the next guest, not knowing
01:38:10
who they're leaving it for.
01:38:11
>> Okay.
01:38:11
>> And the question left for you is I
01:38:13
cannot read this. Okay, here we go.
01:38:16
>> When you are on your deathbed, how will
01:38:19
you describe your life?
01:38:21
>> Unanticipated.
01:38:25
>> Sounds like a a good life. Definitely. I
01:38:29
mean, you know, let's face it, the my
01:38:31
optimism comes from the fact that we
01:38:33
have no idea what we did to deserve
01:38:35
being here.
01:38:36
>> So, every day is kind of like it's a bit
01:38:38
of a gift, right? The more you can
01:38:40
remember that, the more I think the
01:38:41
better off we are.
01:38:44
>> Ian, thank you. I really appreciate all
01:38:45
the nice you and you. Um, I've been
01:38:47
watching you for many, many, many, many
01:38:48
years. and uh whenever the world
01:38:50
descends into turmoil and I'm looking
01:38:52
for someone who can turn the lights on
01:38:53
for me. You're the person that I come to
01:38:54
typically on YouTube. I watch most of
01:38:55
your stuff on there, but I also follow
01:38:56
you on X and find your takes um
01:38:58
incredibly accessible and um
01:39:01
demystifying, which is I think exactly
01:39:02
what we need more of at this time. So,
01:39:03
you are doing a public service even
01:39:05
though you're not running a country. Um
01:39:07
you're helping people like me understand
01:39:09
all of this craziness and therefore um
01:39:11
hopefully live better lives and make
01:39:13
better decisions as to who we elect and
01:39:15
and how we think about the world and how
01:39:16
we treat one another. So, thank you for
01:39:18
doing that. It's it's a great service to
01:39:19
humanity.
01:39:19
>> Well, it's very motivating to hear that,
01:39:21
frankly, and uh I promise you I'll keep
01:39:23
doing my best side.
01:39:24
>> Thank you. YouTube have this new crazy
01:39:25
algorithm where they know exactly what
01:39:27
video you would like to watch next based
01:39:29
on AI and all of your viewing behavior.
01:39:32
And the algorithm says that this video
01:39:35
is the perfect video for you. It's
01:39:37
different for everybody looking right
01:39:38
now. Check this video out and I bet you
01:39:40
you might love
