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former president uh Trump's true social was briefly worth more than Elon Musk X which has been declining in value as
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we've talked about before true social parent company was shortly valued over10 billion while ex Holdings is valued at
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$9.4 billion and that's probably being generous uh the Trump media stock was briefly halted several times this week
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for moving so sharply it's gone up and down really is interesting there's a lot of weird movement in this stock I'd love
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to really actually see the transactions meanwhile the parent company lost more than $16 million in quarter ending June
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and uh doesn't have very many uh people on it which of course this is not about its its fundamental business issues
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however on Wednesday Trump this the shares Trump social lost 1.3 Trump himself lost $ 1.3 billion in net worth
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after the worst trading day ever for the uh for the company we do disagree on why
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this is happening I think there's a lot of gaming going on here and I would love
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to see the logs say more about what you mean by that well if you're someone who wants to support Trump like these poly
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markets everyone like oh Peter teal owns it like people and it turned out there was one trade in France from one guy you
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know that made made it go up so we're all like oh Trump's winning but he's not because one guy did it right and so I
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worry this stock is being manipulated by uh Trump adjacent people and who knows who they could be to make it go up and
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down I don't think this is a bunch of like maybe it's Wall Street gaming the situation um it feels very gamed like on
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some level the way it's gone up because getting away from the fundamentals of this company which both of us absolutely
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agree is a piece of right it's a Sandwich inside a you know pie whatever um it it seems unusual that
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this is happening I don't think it's popular sentiment it's some other sentiment and you think differently you
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think differently it's an interesting thesis and that is that if if a stock or a poll indicates that Trump is likely to
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win that it gives people confidence or incentive or momentum on the Trump side and then I've also heard a counter
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Theory and that is it's being manipulated by a de a wealthy Democrat who wants to give Republican voters the
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Sens it's in the bag such that people stay on the couch I can see oh I didn't hear that one that's fascinating that
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was my friend Whitney Tilson who sends out a really thoughtful email almost every day um I can see someone
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manipulating well let me back up this is what I think is going on poly Market uh
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Calia is that what it's called anyways there's a bunch of them um that are basically wagering sites
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where you can bet on amongst other things every state you can bet on margin of Victory and you can bet on the
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election and right now on poly Market it has uh Trump at 62 approximately 62 or 63 and Harris at
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37 or 38% that is that is a wide margin and I think the logical thesis or the most obvious one and kind of aams Razer
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I think the one that probably is correct is that the kind of person that goes to
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a site and bets on an election is probably younger probably more male and those people skew heavily Trump I mean
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the majority of the data across the A+ list polling sites says that it's pretty much a tossup right and so if you are a
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betting person I mean I'm actually thinking of doing this just for fun uh I might put some money on Harrison uh poly
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Market because this is what it means if you bet a $100 on Harris and she wins you get approximately $287 or almost
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triple your money and if someone said you cara bet on this coin flip and you don't know and I would describe the
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election right now from there's the data I see trying to be as unemotional as possible as a coin flip but if someone
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said you cara you bet $100 and you pick heads or tails and if you win you get 287 you would do that because it's
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asymmetric absolutely let's do it let's do it well that's actually what I'm thinking
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because not that I'm I'm hopeful but I'm not that confident I think it's literally a coin flip but if on a coin
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flip you're getting you're getting $287 yeah then again you have disproportionate upside so I think the
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thesis that these markets are driven by who bets which way or the other the most
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obvious explanation is that the people it's like I do you remember when Floyd Mayweather fought Conor MCG the I do not
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anyways this UFC fighter this whiter than white guy red hair Irish guy who's actually not that great in MMA fighter
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he's just very loud and obnoxious oh that guy he was in the movie with with the he he did the sey anyway yes I know
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who he is yeah well anyways and he fought Floyd Mayweather who arguably has the fastest hands in the history of
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boxing but the odds were much tighter because I think I think people still like the idea I think there's some
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unconscious racis racism where people like the idea of the white guy beating up or or winning the you know the
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beating the black guy there's always throughout the history of boxing there's always a little bit of of bias for the
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white guy the Great White Hope so to speak and the best bet or the easiest bet was on Floyd Mayweather fighting an
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OK MMA fighter that had never boxed before anyway did my point is you're getting asymmetric upside to the notion
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of who won that thing I don't even know to Conor McGregor's credit he fought a competent fight but Floyd Mayweather AB
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dominated and and and won as he should have but the thing that I don't think is being
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manipulated for Trump's favor is the stock because the stock is the stock was almost at a 100 a couple years ago it's
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been as low as 12 so I don't know if that's sending signals into the marketplace why why couldn't one or 10
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listen to this this is an interesting Fortune had a really interesting investigation and separate
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investigations completed by the blockchain firms Kos labs and Inca digital and shared exclusively with
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Fortune analysts found that polym market activity exhibits signs of wash trading
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a form of Market manipulation where Shares are bought and sold often simultaneously and repeatedly to create
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a false impression of volume of activity chaos Labs found that wash trading consisted constituted around onethird of
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trading volume in poly Market's presidential Market while Inca digital found that a significant portion of the
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volume on the market could be attributed to potential wash trading um uh the the
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other ones um you know they're looking at those too I think you could do the same thing with
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this with this stuck very little needs to trade to make it go up and if you wanted I I was intrigued by the
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Democratic thing make them feel confident and then you know put $100 for each of us on that will you do that will
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you do that and I'll owe you uh 100% um I might I might do a little bit more than that but anyways I buy the thesis
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around the polls because around the the betting sites because a lot of media reports on the betting sites and when
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the media reports that according to Market or KY that Trump is almost 2 to one favored that sends a signal that's
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probably on the whole good for the Trump Campa campaign where the stock is I don't think does much around a signal or
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confidence or lack thereof I don't I don't think it creates much of a echo act in favor of one candidate or the
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other I would short that stock like nobody's business just well you wouldn't like well it could rise yeah you could
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no you could rise you got to be very careful short a stock like that because yeah
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he there's a scenario where it goes to 100 bucks on November the 6th and you know the the dangerous thing about short
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selling is your your losses are unlimited y that's true anyways but I I guess what I'm saying is I absolutely
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buy your thesis around manipulating and the incentive around manipulating the betting markets I'm not sure I see the
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connection of the incentive around manipulating two it doesn't need that many I'd just love to see it I'd like to
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actually see the trading anyway we'll see what happens uh when we go forward