00:00:00
Well, wasn't it What's happening with Tik Tok? Well, they said it's consummated or gonna consummate it or whatever.
00:00:11
Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Carara Swisser and I'm
00:00:16
still in Korea. Hi Scott. Are you enjoying yourself? Yeah, I am. I'm not a big traveler. I'm
00:00:22
not a big traveler. I like going home. You're not a big traveler. You travel all the time. I know, but I like home if I had to
00:00:28
pick. If that makes sense. Does that make sense? Well, that's um you're I assume you're
00:00:34
not. It would be somewhat distressing if if Amanda was listening, you said, "Yeah, I just I like to be away from
00:00:40
home." Well, she's been great. Whether that's true or not, that's the right thing to say.
00:00:45
I miss home. I miss home wherever it happens to be. I can't stand my kids. And then about an
00:00:50
hour into the drive to the airport, I start missing them. I can't Oh, really? I can stand my kids. I miss
00:00:55
them a lot. I do. I do. Oh, well, you're a much better parent than me. I am. Well, that's kind of
00:01:01
You get my point. I'm I'm Do you want me to parent your kids if you'd like? No. Your mo your wife is great.
00:01:07
I could use the help. You know, Trump's coming here and I'm leaving. That's That's one of my favorite parts of this.
00:01:12
He's going to Korea. Yeah. Are you coming here on Let me just say for everybody, Scott's book comes out what day? November.
00:01:17
Yeah, it comes out November I think it's November the 4th. Is that right? Notes on being a woman. Yes. No.
00:01:24
There you go. That's your next one. That's that's what people are looking for from me.
00:01:29
Um, but it's coming out and you're coming on the my podcast. We're going to talk this week. That's right. I just saw that on my
00:01:35
counter. I'm going on on with Cara Fisher. I feel like that's like I have never stayed at your house.
00:01:40
That's what this feels like. It feels very uncomfortable. I'm excited. It's pretty high up now. It's up in the top of the of the charts
00:01:47
getting up there. So, I'll hope they'll sell books, but I'm excited to hear I'm going to read the book. Oh, I have it on
00:01:52
the plane. I'm going to read it on the plane. That's what I'll do. That's one of the things that'll put me to sleep.
00:01:57
No, no, I just want to know what it's like to be a man. It'll be great. Someone asked me what my body count was,
00:02:03
so I started counting and I fell asleep. Get it? Like counting sheep. I see. All right. All right. You'll get there. You're a little jetlagged, but you'll get there. I know. I'm a little jetlagged. No, I'm just tired. It just was a long day cuz I I I
00:02:16
I have to say the crews here and the people have been amazing. That's the one thing. They're really lovely people. And
00:02:22
um hopefully it'll it'll turn out okay. The TV always makes me There's a lot of waiting in television. I'm kind of glad
00:02:27
to be done with the taping next thing. I was thinking about going to uh Korea for a scrotum lift. I think of it as
00:02:33
lowhanging fruit. Oh my god. All right, we're going to stop. Speaking of plastic surgery, which you love.
00:02:39
Did you hear about this? The tech bros are all getting plastic surgery. They're following in your footsteps. Um some
00:02:44
surgeons have seen five-fold increases demand for men in tech in the last 5 years. Not a surprise, according to
00:02:49
article in the Wall Street Journal. I I don't think it's just men in tech, but apparently so there's a lot of them.
00:02:54
Procedures, mini face lifts, neck lifts, that deep plain thing, eyelid lifts to stay looking youthful in a competitive
00:03:01
job market. I I just I didn't have any work done, but it's, you know, I'm not surprised. Do you think Are you
00:03:06
surprised? Seems silly. Um, no. I mean, I get I've had I get Botox and I'm sure at some point I'll go into the knife. I think that look, we're in a we're in an ages
00:03:20
culture. I think some of that is good. Uh, and people want to feel youthful. And I think the standards and the benchmark, there are so many people out there now. I don't know if
00:03:31
you've noticed, have you noticed this? It seems like every young person is hot. And between working out and skin
00:03:38
treatments in New York, all the young people are hot. I think the tunnels have some sort of x-ray or security post
00:03:44
where if you're not hot, you're not allowed into New York. Um, but my sense is the the aesthetic and the benchmark
00:03:50
has gotten so especially for men, right? For men, which I think is it's common more common
00:03:56
here or Brazil or different play or Brazil, I think. Um, but I've noticed a lot younger and a lot just the way they were in some other countries. Um, a lot younger and a lot more men. Well, that's
00:04:10
the big that's the growth part is that women have always been look men are disproportionately and unfairly
00:04:15
evaluated on their economic viability, women on their aesthetics. So, there's always been an emphasis and women have always spent a disproportionate amount
00:04:21
of time and money on aesthetics. What's the the delta or the change or the uplift in surgery is mostly coming from
00:04:28
men because a lot of it used to be men had to retire at 65 and now they say no I want to come back and bend to Donald Trump and [ __ ] up Disney and I'm 74 but I want to look 73 so I get surgery. So
00:04:42
guys everywhere are getting if you have the bottom line is the surgical techniques have gotten much better and
00:04:49
and if why look 65 if you can look 57 and if you have money and it's not that big a risk any longer. It the question I have is why wouldn't you? And some people say well I don't care.
00:05:01
Do do you really do you really not care what you look like? Yeah. So yeah those neck things were men looked
00:05:07
better with the neck. I hate to say it, but I'm not a big I don't like a lot of surgery. Al although they, you know,
00:05:14
it's it's gotten better and better. I mean, that deep plane thing, but um the thing around the neck with the guys I
00:05:20
thought was really interesting is um you know, they look kind of jowlly and then they don't.
00:05:26
Has a lower face left. Yeah, I have less jowls. I was told by the skin people I don't have as many jels. Yeah. No, you're not.
00:05:31
Jowls are coming, of course. or the the the thing around your eyes, sort of the eye sockets and the double folds and
00:05:38
this and that and or the triple folds and the the heavy eyelid. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, go ahead. Well, I didn't have any while I was here, but maybe you could when you come anyway.
00:05:48
I'm all I'm I'm for it. I'm a huge fan of it. So, speaking of uh of of Trump being
00:05:54
here, he is actually coming Thursday. He's been in Asia striking all manner of deals, which we'll talk about in a second. Um he he he's he's pulling
00:06:02
tariffs off it looks like or or putting striking deals. But he said he's putting a 10% tariff on imports from Canada
00:06:09
after already cancelling trade talks all because of a TV ad that an audio accurate audio audio of Ronald Reagan
00:06:16
criticizing tariffs. Trump called the ad which was sponsored by the government of Ontario that would be Doug Ford a fraud
00:06:21
and a hostile act. The spot features excerpts from a 1987 Ronald Reagan radio address on foreign trade. the audio is
00:06:27
authentic though it is slightly different order from the original speech. Um but it's what he said. Um he
00:06:33
the the Reagan Presidential Foundation said the ad misrepresents Reagan words but is unexplained was misrepresented
00:06:39
cuz I went back and and listened to the original and it's this it was the intent
00:06:45
but so I guess they shouldn't have rearranged it. But let's listen to some of this ad.
00:06:50
When someone says, "Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports," it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by
00:06:57
protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works, but only for a short time. But over the long run, such trade barriers
00:07:08
hurt every American worker and consumer. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars.
00:07:20
Then the worst happens. Markets shrink and collapse. Businesses and industries shut down and millions of people lose
00:07:27
their jobs. I'll tell you, it was nice hearings a president who actually spoke in full
00:07:33
sentences. Um, a Republican one uh Ontario's premier pulled the ad, but uh it did air in major US markets over the weekend, including during the World Series. Um, talk about this from a
00:07:44
market. This is this Doug Ford who's this conservative who was somewhat proTrump as I recall and now is sort of
00:07:50
like you know smacking him around up there up north. Um talk about from a marketing not so much the essence
00:07:56
because this is what Reagan thought actually but um but about doing this kind of things and why Trump is reacting
00:08:03
like this. Well, look, I I think Canada's never looked stronger. It's just strange to be
00:08:09
rooting for the Blue Jays when they're playing my home team, the Dodgers. It's just Canada, the US's strategy
00:08:18
looks performative, faux masculinity, sclerotic. They're they're dictating trade policy
00:08:24
off of commercials that antagonize the president. It's just and Canada, I believe, is our biggest trading partner. Some people would say it depends on how you count it. It should be Mexico,
00:08:36
but I mean, one of the biggest problems we have in the United States is housing. And unfortunately because of nimiism and
00:08:44
incumbents who control the government were fond of regulations that made it make it harder for the entrance to buy a
00:08:50
home. And so we've let homes go from 290 to 410. And the you know two of the largest inputs are gypsum drywall which comes from Mexico and lumber which comes from Canada. So we're going to make
00:09:02
homes more expensive unnecessarily. And Canada just looks more consistent and unafraid. And I think this has been I think this has bolstered the brand of
00:09:14
Canada. I think they will end up this will absolutely impact their economy negatively for three or four years. They
00:09:20
will figure out different trade routes. It's no accident which they are trying. Of course Carney's headed to Asia as we speak.
00:09:26
Yeah. Yeah. And there's no shortage of of other export nations that'll say, you know
00:09:31
what, we have really good products here too and we're going to do it at zero tariff and let's strengthen the relationship between Canada and Asia and
00:09:38
Latin America. And then those relationships will be really unh hard to undo. And
00:09:43
yeah, the next administration, and I'm trying to manifest this, is going to have to go on essentially a
00:09:49
48-month apology tour. And regardless of how effective that is, there's no way we're going to be able to compensate for the destruction to these 80-year trade alliances that has taken place over the
00:10:00
last, you know, 10 months. This is just, no one likes to be insulted or have economic warfare. And why this is just so incredibly stupid is I'll just use an
00:10:10
example. The Kentucky bourbon industry is basically going to be wiped off the map if they're not careful. So
00:10:17
they have stopped buying Jack Daniels. Do you know the margins? The margins on lumber are probably like 10 to 30%. The
00:10:23
operating margins are probably high single digits. Those companies don't trade a big multiples. The public traded
00:10:29
lumber companies if there are any. Whereas alcohol commands 90 points of margin. The majority of restaurants, the
00:10:35
the kind of the ugly secret of restaurants is they try to break even on the food and they make all their money on the alcohol.
00:10:41
On the alcohol. Yeah. Because they'll charge you 14 bucks for a Makaker Mark and ginger ale and it costs them about 60 cents. And so that's
00:10:49
where they make all their margin. And we have some of the best alcohol brands in the world. And when we import them into
00:10:54
Canada and they say no, it's not tit for tat. If we reduce our exports by a dollar by declaring trade war and they reduce their exports go down a dollar,
00:11:05
it's not dollar for dollar because our margins on our products tend to be higher. Yeah. One of the things is interesting
00:11:11
to me is, you know, from a marketing perspective, Reagan used to be the gold standard of Republicans, right? And you
00:11:17
know, we're showing our age. We remember the age of Reagan, which wasn't as great as people are now making it out to be.
00:11:22
Although some of these speeches are terrific, especially the immigration one, which was one of his last speeches. Um, but you know, the the the marketing
00:11:30
strength of Ronald Reagan is over Mr. Morning in America, which is very different from Make America Great Again,
00:11:36
right? In terms of that was some marketing expertise, the Reagan administration, but it doesn't work, I guess, except to irritate Donald Trump. I mean, he was an actor and he was very
00:11:48
handsome and regardless of some of his policies. I mean, I I like Ronald Reagan and it's
00:11:54
easy to play Monday morning quarterback, but he refused to use the word AIDS and in a period where anyways, we have a
00:12:00
tendency to decide people in history are either very very good or very very bad. And because history is sort of a crude,
00:12:06
blunt instrument, I mean, if you think about him as the the there are no more Republicans or at
00:12:14
least he was brand Republican forever, right? Trump has completely long time ago. It's fiscal responsibility. Okay, that's gone out the window. $7 trillion in
00:12:25
deficits from George Washington to George Bush. Since then, it's been $30 trillion. and a Republican tried to convince us and we believed him that we
00:12:32
could go to war and cut taxes at the same time. That was W. And since then, Democrats and Republican administrations
00:12:38
since then have said to the children that are the United States voter right now, no, you can stay up till 2 a.m. and
00:12:45
eat sugar and not have dinner and you don't have to go to school tomorrow and nothing bad will ever happen. Yeah.
00:12:50
So, Americans have gotten used to spending $7 trillion on 5 trillion and believing that everything will be okay.
00:12:56
Okay. So, fiscal responsibility was a touchstone of Republican administrations. That's gone. Um, uh,
00:13:03
low involvement or less involvement, not overarching government combined with personal liberty.
00:13:09
And that was you get to make these decisions and government should not be in your life. And we now have a
00:13:16
government which is essentially a cross between socialism and cronyism. and that is the government
00:13:22
is very involved in corporate decisions, but it's based on who he likes or doesn't like, who curries favor with him or doesn't. That that could not be more that could
00:13:33
not be more non-Republican. So, I mean, it's the Democrats who on economic policy and individual rights appear to be more Republican. If I could go back in time, Teddy Roosevelt was all about
00:13:45
the environment. Everything is upside down right now. an embrace of foreign relationships, nonp protectionism was a
00:13:51
very Republican thing. Well, speaking of which, um, on the other tariff front though, US and
00:13:57
Chinese officials have reached yet another framework of a deal avoid 100% tariffs that Trump threatened to impose
00:14:02
uh, Taco Trump. Uh, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, who really is sort of lost a seems to be undignified now, also
00:14:11
said on Face the Nation that Trump and G are set to finalize a Tik Tok deal this week. Let's listen uh to uh how he
00:14:18
talked about this. We reached a final deal on Tik Tok. Uh we've reached one in Madrid and I
00:14:26
believe that as of today all the details are ironed out and that will be for the
00:14:32
two leaders to uh consummate that transaction on Thursday in Korea. I'm getting the hell out of Korea before consummation. Let's let's hope not. Um,
00:14:44
so there's that happening, which I think something you talked about needing to happen, the Chinese uh to to come to
00:14:51
terms with China. Yeah. But I don't I don't know what that means. What What if they have a
00:14:56
commercial that pisses them off on the way over? I don't in that 100% tariff. And
00:15:02
um I think that they you know, China definitely has its own problems. I mean what you have to when you're
00:15:09
establishing or trying to understand a battle and doing our game theory, you've got to look at the strengths they have
00:15:14
that you don't have. And China has the advantages of an authoritarian government where the autocrat has
00:15:20
established power for the next 10, 20, 30 years. He's consolidated power. They have the CCP. I don't know if it's
00:15:28
unpopular popular, but I don't think it's very unpopular. The economy there has struggles, but the Chinese, the
00:15:35
Chinese to a certain extent have the same advantage that the Russians have in Ukraine, and that is their willingness to endure and inflict pain on their
00:15:41
populace for long-term interests. Americans, if you know, if AWS goes out and Netflix
00:15:48
goes down, the whole nation is freaks out. China is absolutely willing to put companies out of business. It's willing to decrease their prosperity, but is not going to be pushed around by America.
00:16:00
And also we have a tendency to think this this administration anyways that it's the biggest customer at you know
00:16:06
rolling up to the bar. We're the third largest trading partner. The Association for Southeast Asian Nations is their
00:16:13
largest trading partner, the second largest. They do more trade with the EU than they do with the US. And they have
00:16:19
already vastly decreased the percentage of trade going to the US. So he shows up
00:16:25
and again this is just a such a common error in judgment and in strategy. He shows up thinking he has cards he
00:16:32
doesn't have and Americans if if inflation pops to five or six% here Americans are going to freak out. They could go to 15% in China and the Chinese
00:16:44
government has killed tens of millions of its own people or let them starve for what they perceive to be national
00:16:50
interests. M so to think that he can show up and muscle them around, he is totally mis
00:16:56
miscalculating and misappraising his his adversary over there. So I don't trust him nor any of his team to get a deal done or you know quote unquote a
00:17:06
framework. So we'll wait and see, right? A frame framework of a deal. Yet another what's happening with Tik Tok? I I mean
00:17:13
I don't know. Well, they said it's consummated or going to consummate or whatever. They're going to [ __ ] each other. I don't know
00:17:18
what why he used that word, but presumably it's going to Larry Ellison as is everything. It's apparently in
00:17:24
media. Uh this is the most important element of Ellison's uh me burgeoning media empire of course.
00:17:32
Um you know what's going to happen here? But um I don't know what it means. I guess they just decided h give it to
00:17:37
him. What's the difference? Right? Like we don't need this and if we can get everything else. I mean there was an
00:17:43
interesting I read a lot of the analysis of this and basically what they've decided to do as every other leader
00:17:48
including leader of Japan is to flatter him to compliment him and then get what you want right essentially and and which is kind of depressing like they've just figured figured him out pretty easily
00:18:00
and uh we'll see the Chinese you're absolutely right are in it for the long haul so we'll see what they have to say
00:18:06
um you know it'll be an the Tik Tok thing is what I'll be paying attention to but we'll see if they um do I mean,
00:18:12
what I think Trump is trying to do, it's so interesting because presidents all start out locally and end up in foreign
00:18:19
places doing these these trips. And I think Trump is very comfortable acting like he's big BOC across the world
00:18:27
essentially. And so these these leaders have figured out a way to to please him in a it's kind of sad. It's like pleasing an old man, like let's pet him and this and that. So, we'll see. We'll
00:18:38
see what happens here. I Here's my prediction. He's going to go up to the DMZ and go visit his friend um uh in
00:18:45
North Korea. So, we'll see. He's so close. I can't imagine he would, you know, he keeps talking about him. He he
00:18:51
talks about him in a nicer way than he talks about other Americans, which is really kind of depressing given he's a
00:18:56
dictator and not just an autocrat, even worse than that. Well, those are his role models. He's very much about strength. And again,
00:19:03
he's conflates he conflates strength with coarseness and cruelty and authoritarianism. And
00:19:09
that's not it's just a terrible it's a terrible um and the problem is he's been successful
00:19:15
in the short term at it. He's won the presidency twice. Everybody's falling in line behind him.
00:19:20
Yeah. And it's out of the authoritarian playbook. Reward reward the people who are loyal to you. Punish severely the
00:19:26
people who aren't loyal to you. And the 53 Republican senators are all going along with it as are the majority of the
00:19:33
House of Representatives. There's been a few notable breaks. Senator Paul is questioning us bombing boats. We have a
00:19:40
We spend a trillion dollars on our military that's supposed to be so lethal and yet we're now pushing back on a murderous autocrat in Europe. We've
00:19:47
decided to bomb fishing boats. We'll see what happens. We're going to go on a quick break. When we come back, this is a story that I think is not
00:19:53
getting nearly enough attention. We'll discuss the latest crypto pardon. Support for the show comes from Ziotics. When you have exciting evening plans, that shouldn't mean you have to automatically cancel your plans the next
00:20:04
day. Well, with Zbiotics Pre-Alcohol, a fun night doesn't have to mean a rough morning. Zbiotics Pre-alcohol Probiotic
00:20:11
Drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking. And here's how the folks
00:20:18
at Zbiotics say it works. When you drink, alcohol gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's a
00:20:23
buildup of this byproduct, not dehydration. That's to blame for rough days after drinking. Pre-alcohol produces an enzyme to break this
00:20:30
byproduct down. Just remember to make pre-alcohol your first drink of the night. drink responsibly and you'll feel
00:20:35
your best tomorrow. Uh I am as I get older trying to drink less, but when I do drink, I do use Ziotics and I have
00:20:42
found that on average it takes about 30 to 50% of kind of the I don't know the out of the next morning, if you will. Go to zbiotics.com/pivot to learn more and get 15% off your first
00:20:53
order when you use Pivot at checkout. Ziotics is back with a 100% money back guarantee. So if you're unsatisfied for
00:20:59
any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to zbiotics.com/pivot
00:21:04
and use code pivot at checkout for 15% off. Scott, we're back. President Trump has pardoned Shangpang Jiao, better known as CZ, the founder of the crypto exchange
00:21:16
Binance. CZ pleaded guilty in 2023 to violating anti-moneylaundering laws and served four months in a federal prison while Binance paid $4.3 billion to settle with the Justice Department. CZ
00:21:28
has been working on a pardon for months. There seems to be a playbook here with the Trump people, hiring lobbyists with
00:21:33
ties to Trump and making podcast uh appearances, praising the president. Binance is also a key backer of the
00:21:39
Trump families. This is the key one. Crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, and helped launch its stable coin
00:21:45
earlier this year. In a post on X, CZ said he was grateful to Trump and pledged to help make America the capital
00:21:50
of crypto. I assume Sam Bankman Freed is next. What do you think of this? because we've been talking a lot about how this
00:21:57
focus on crypto with his family um sort of larding itself over in um money and uh just money really. Well, I think it's important to understand why CZ was incarcerated.
00:22:11
And he was incarcerated because Binance was found guilty of laundering money. And that sounds that sounds somewhat
00:22:18
innocuous, but according to the Department of Treasury, Binance failed to report the following transactions
00:22:25
associated with terrorist groups, including al Qaeda, ISIS, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad,
00:22:32
millions of dollars in ransomware transactions. Bance is one of the largest receivers of ransomware
00:22:38
proceeds, transactions associated with child sexual abuse material. So people hear about sexation and think that is the most heinous crime ever. Well folks, there's a technical technological
00:22:49
infrastructure behind it and money laundering with funds that can't be tracked is part of it and then
00:22:56
transactions associated with drugs fraud and other illegal contraband. His his official charges were again around money laundering and he'd served four four months and Binance was barred from
00:23:08
operating the US. But here's what they did. Binance received a $2 billion investment
00:23:14
from the Abu Dhabi investment firm MGX. And then Binance decided to accept the investment via World Liberty Financial
00:23:21
USD1 stable coin, which by the way, the majority stake is still connected in World Liberty Financial USD1 is still connected to the financial wealth and butressing the financial wealth of the
00:23:33
Trump of Trump and his family, which owns 38% of World Liberty Financial. Put another way, make me richer and I will
00:23:42
let the person that a judge and jury and our institutions decided to incarcerate
00:23:48
because he was facilitating transactions to terrorists and people engaged in child sex exploitation. I'm letting that person out if you agreed to make me and my family
00:24:00
richer. Yeah. And because this feels very circular and complicated and we're so busy watching stupid [ __ ] videos of a
00:24:08
construction project at the at Pennsylvania Avenue, we take our eye off the ball. There's going to be more kids
00:24:15
who are going to be in scams, send naked pictures of themselves, and then be extorted and then potentially engage in self harm because the people on the other end can find a means of
00:24:26
transacting these payments and this exploitation. you know, if you're watching a Bond movie, CZ is the one he
00:24:32
ends up golfing in the end. Like, he's the moneyaundering, you know, mogul essentially. And so, this is was a
00:24:40
criminal act, this guy. And but we're bombing fishing boats. Most people in crypto think this too, by
00:24:46
the way, FYI. So, it's sort of a, you know, he's they've just decided crypto good no matter what. And it's like
00:24:53
saying banking good or whatever. There's there's all kinds of bankers that are um culpable in these kind of things, by the
00:25:00
way. It's not just limited to to crypto. Um but this is just this was such a straight line um grift. It's just like absolutely out in
00:25:11
the open. you know, everything's out, you know, when we even if you know, I I agree with you every with all the
00:25:17
handwaving around the the White House thing, which I'll talk about later, but um it's really uh this one really
00:25:24
deserves more attention, especially for what what what this company did, you know, this company did. And I assume Sam
00:25:30
Bankman Freed is next, who is comparatively minor compared to this guy, right? This he was that was just
00:25:36
your basic I made a mess. I didn't realize it. That was his excuse. But I there there's a whole way to get a
00:25:43
pardon from Trump. Yeah. But he doesn't have the power right now. FDX doesn't have the platform
00:25:48
or the power to make the Trumps rich. This is to a certain extent there's sort of I don't want to call it low calorie
00:25:55
corruption. But when Eric goes over and says, "Build a hotel and give me better financing terms and finance it."
00:26:02
Somebody still has to build the hotel. There is some risk. It's corruption. But what they found is if we're going to be corrupt, let's just figure out a way to pump up, let's go to the top. Yeah.
00:26:12
A synthetic currency that has no value underlying utility. And then we don't even have to report
00:26:18
when we sell it and nobody has to operate it. And we don't even have to pretend that we know how to be in the
00:26:23
hospitality business. We don't have to build it. We just get people to basically funnel money into it.
00:26:28
Massively inflate the market. We sell. Nobody even knows we've sold. And boom. this is the like most elegant, clean,
00:26:34
frictionless form of corruption. So they're like they're like, "Okay, Nancy Pelosi that does insider trading, but you have to report those trades. Okay, Trump who gets a 747, we actually see
00:26:47
the 747. He's got to fly it around. He's got to justify it." No, this is easier. Nobody even really, there's no records
00:26:54
of this. Uh they as far as we know we think they've made3 to5 billion dollars off these crypto scams but it's even
00:27:00
hard to tell how much money they've made. We don't know how to connect it to we know when the Qatari government says
00:27:06
give us give us NATO like protection after giving the president a $400 million plane we can connect the dots.
00:27:14
But when he launches a memecoin and someone calls him and says, "FYI, tomorrow I'm gonna buy
00:27:20
a billion dollars or a hundred million dollars worth of Trumpcoin, which will take the price up. And if you want to sell some, that's your business, Mr.
00:27:26
President. But in addition, would you mind not shipping Tomahawk missiles to the to
00:27:32
Ukraine for a while? We're not able to connect those dots. There's no public filing disclosure." You know what? Actually, I've heard from
00:27:38
a lot of people. A lot of people in crypto don't love all this stuff because the the the hammer is going to come down
00:27:44
on this industry again. I thought the Biden administration was too slow to to embrace some of the good parts of it. I
00:27:51
would I talked to a lot of crypto people and the reason was because it has such a
00:27:57
proclivity towards what you were just talking about money laundering and uh sexual abuse and terrorism and payoffs
00:28:04
and stuff like that in terms of the dis the ability to disappear a lot of these transactions but it was on its way you
00:28:11
know and and Biden was unnecessarily Biden administration was unnecessarily harsh on uh this group of people but um
00:28:19
I out of I think an abundance of caution. I don't think it was a particular hostility to it. It was just
00:28:24
more of the worries about the downside versus the upside. And I just feel like the the the hammer will come down on this industry after this is all over. And the second part is I was I've been
00:28:36
told by a lot of tech people that there are people monitoring what is happening here and there are ways to follow the money. So there's always ways and quietly they're doing that and
00:28:48
eventually some of these people are going to pay. I I we'll see. But you know, it just all you have to do is pay
00:28:54
this guy off to get out. And speaking of which, the one the one that also troubled me was the tech and business leaders um are getting credit for
00:29:01
coordinated effort to stop Trump from sending troops to San Francisco. Mayor Daniel Luri reportedly worked with Sam
00:29:06
Alman, Jensen Wong, uh Mark Beni off, and others to get the president to reconsider. Trump acknowledged the lobbying in a true social post saying he
00:29:13
got calls from friends of mine and decided not to surge San Francisco, as he put it. I find this repulsive this
00:29:19
strategy is that you know I'm not you know I I've been in touch with Beni off recently about this whole the whole
00:29:27
thing with the with the troops and he knows what I think um which is that he should have never called for them but
00:29:34
you know none of you get a thank you for telling a bully not to do something that's stupid right I don't want my democracy to be run because these guys can call him up or go to a dinner or
00:29:45
give him money um But you know this this was the wrong thing to do for all these
00:29:52
cities and including San Francisco and the fact that the only way it gets saved is these guys call them like what in the world no one's making decisions based on
00:30:03
the right thing to do. It's based on these incredibly powerful people who have access and then the regular
00:30:09
Americans don't have access to make their argument one way or the other. But this is this is a I find this truly
00:30:16
disturbing. Um and you know none of them has said you should thank me Cara cuz I'd be like go [ __ ] yourself. Like how dare you that this is the way things are done. I just I find it
00:30:28
something quite vague just disturbing about this this uh this is how this is how it's done done as they say in um uh K-pop demon hunters. But but Mayor Lurri
00:30:41
trying to enlist local business people to lobby the president to he has to to not set send in the National Guard
00:30:48
and create disruption and terrorize local residents. A kudos to him. I think that's the right
00:30:54
thing to do. I agree. The problem is they're operating in a context that's illegal and non-American. And that is right. That's right.
00:31:00
Barry Goldwater said this. He said we're we're placing too much power in the office of the presidency. The whole
00:31:05
point of a democracy is you have a diffused sense of power such that there's checks and balances. And that
00:31:10
unfortunately you don't go as fast, but it prevents the tragedy of the commons. And when if you're going to send in the National Guard into cities, there needs to be some sort of oversight or there
00:31:22
needs to be some sort of legal justification or systemic laws that say this is when the National Guard can be
00:31:28
sent into a city and what its mission is. Not, oh, I don't like the mayor here. I don't like the governor here or
00:31:35
Epstein starting to creep back into the news. I need to launch the National Guard or pulse the National Guard into a
00:31:40
city. This is I mean it's just so I I can't imagine and I don't know how much of it I'm convinced now that you know and I've said this before. We're just going to be so angry at the mind control
00:31:51
that these algorithms have over us and we don't even realize how much. The most upsetting things I see I think
00:31:59
is this true is those is all of that footage of of ICE agents. Yeah. I just find it the idea that these guys are in masks. Yeah. The idea there is a basic principle that
00:32:11
is so core to our democracy and what is wonderful about America and that is we target and ideally reward behavior
00:32:23
not their identity. Mh. And that is we say, okay, I if you're a gay woman and you're great at what you do and you take risks, you can make a lot of money and have a nice
00:32:35
life here. And we aren't going to start rounding up people or asking them, "Are you born here?" which the ICE agents are doing because they're brown when they're on their way inside on
00:32:46
their way inside to uh, you know, Kroger's. Yeah. Yeah. Every one of these agents seems like a brute, right? It feel I
00:32:53
feel like I'm in some like Steven Seagal movie with bad people like you know the
00:32:58
way they're talking to people and how the the masks and the they look like they've had way too many steroids every
00:33:04
one of them like they it feels so villainous and it's either villainous or you got to be a rich guy to get through
00:33:11
and it feel it does feel unamerican. When I heard that Sam Elman had to call him to call him off, that's that's our
00:33:18
line of defense. Not because it's not I just was like this is ridiculous. Well, it kind of goes to the same thing
00:33:24
now where because of the government shutdown rather than saying, okay, there's a government shutdown. You need
00:33:29
to negotiate with a co-equal branch of government. It's like, no, I'll just get my rich friend to pay the the military
00:33:35
and the people I like in the government. This is not how you're supposed to run a government where individuals where the
00:33:41
president gets to decide, you know, who in the government gets paid and who doesn't and he can call someone and say,
00:33:46
"Hey, I look really bad here. Can you give me $100 million? And by the way, wink wink, I'll make it up to you with a series of laws that transfer wealth from small and medium-sized businesses and
00:33:57
your competitors to you." It might even not impact the economy that much in the short run because the economy turns on.
00:34:03
But what it does over the long term is a lot of people don't want to invest here. A lot of people don't want to immigrate here. A lot of people don't want to
00:34:09
start businesses because they're worried that they that they're not going to be protected by the rule of fair play and law. I don't think Americans realize how
00:34:16
many really talented people come here and how much capital comes here because they feel that there is a rule of fair
00:34:23
play here. That's what it is. Rule of fair play. I met a guy I met this Russian kid who
00:34:28
came over here and he'd started one of those home delivery companies and he made a bunch of money. He was a successful entrepreneur in Russia. He
00:34:34
had a wonderful life. He said, "Why'd you move here?" He said, "You live in fear in Russia that someone you don't
00:34:40
even know makes a call and your business is done the next day and you don't even know who made the call."
00:34:46
I know. And that's what's effectively we're headed that way, right? I know. I just for some reason
00:34:51
this just stuck in my craw. Thank god Ben didn't text me like you wanted to say thank you. I'd be like go [ __ ]
00:34:56
yourself. I I don't mean that, Mark. But honestly, seriously, this is not the way it should be done. Um, speaking of
00:35:03
things that are are uh in another thing that speaking of robots, which I was just I'm I'm seeing a lot of robot
00:35:09
companies here, by the way. Um, Amazon executives believe the company can replace more than half a million
00:35:15
warehouse jobs with robots because this is where it's heading. I've I I'll go into in a second with robots over the
00:35:21
next several years, according to internal documents obtained by the New York Times. Documents show Amazon's
00:35:26
robotics team has an ultimate goal to automate 75% of its operations. I bet it's even higher. They reveal Amazon is
00:35:33
planning to manage public backlash by promoting a quote good corporate citizen image, participating in community events
00:35:39
like parades and toy drives. Executives also discuss ditching words like automation and AI instead using advanced
00:35:46
technology and cobots, collaborative robots. Amazon says the documents viewed at the times were incomplete and did not reflect its overall hiring strategy. Um, let me tell you years and years ago and
00:35:58
I was looking for the picture. I was going to show it to some people here. Um, after Amazon bought KA, which was I
00:36:04
thought a critical purchase at the time, it was it was a logistics, it was a robotic, it moved things around the
00:36:11
factory and they Amazon for some reason invited me in to see the factory. And um
00:36:17
I went to see it and watched these KA I think they were KA powered robots moving
00:36:22
stuff around and they had people in the factory but a lot of it was automated obviously and it's pretty cool when you
00:36:27
see them put on labels or put on whatever it was quite an automated factory and I I guess publicly I said
00:36:35
they're never going to they're going to they're moving towards no people in these warehouses. This was about 10 years ago. You could see they're so
00:36:42
smart you could see what they were doing, right? Um, and and I remember uh one of the Kennedys who was representing
00:36:49
uh Massachusetts, I can't remember which one it was, was saying, "Oh, they're going to put an Amazon warehouse in my
00:36:55
district." I'm like, "They're not going to have people in it." Like, and I remember Amazon being calling me and
00:37:00
saying, "Don't be saying that." And I'm like, "But it that's what's it seems so obvious to me." And so, this is where
00:37:06
they're going with these. There there will be no people in Amazon warehouses or very few people. Um, and then
00:37:12
pretending otherwise seems kind of ridiculous because they've really they're really quite good at it and they're a logistics company more than a
00:37:19
commerce company. How and here in in in Korea, I was just in a thing called Robot Valley. I mean, robotics do not get enough attention compared to AI, but
00:37:30
AI combined with robotics is really like one of these amazing and also terrifying
00:37:37
breakthroughs for humanity, it seems to me. But I don't know. What do you think? Yeah, I agree with you. It's sort of
00:37:43
it's a similar issue to all these data centers that Congress people are excited to get in their district, but the reality is you could turn the lights off
00:37:49
during the day because there's nobody working there. There's some labor involved in building these things, but once they're up and running, they're
00:37:55
just a huge draw on the local electric or power supply and they don't create a lot of jobs. I think robots and
00:38:03
automation are in many ways I it's always it's always the [ __ ] you're not expecting that impacts you to the upside and the downside. I actually think the more important technology over the next 24 months that would be the best bet for
00:38:15
America is not GPT5. I think it's GLP1. I think that would be a better bet for America if they put GLP1 in the hands of every obese person in a low-inccome home. And I think robotics, to your
00:38:28
point, are in some ways more important than AI because I think that Jeff Bezos and Darra Kasahi dream of a lack of drivers and and factory workers. I think
00:38:42
they think, okay, think about the majority of the bad press that Amazon has probably received in the last 10 years. A lot of it is
00:38:49
stories of these delivery men in vans who have pea bottles and aren't aren't paid well and have to hit quotas and
00:38:56
have health insurance. I I got to be honest, I'm here for it. I want I would love to see AI pilots and planes. If you
00:39:04
look at the majority of and it won't happen because of psychological reasons, but if you look at the majority of plane crashes, and there's very few, they're
00:39:09
almost always pilot error. Yeah. And so there will be job creation though. There people there will be
00:39:16
people that have to program and build these things and service them. It'll be a higher wage job. But the story of
00:39:22
America is that the low wage, low value ad production jobs slowly but surely get screened out as we move from an agrarian
00:39:28
to a a manufacturing to a services to a quote unquote innovation economy. I think it's a good thing. The problem
00:39:35
with America is that we're not very good at retraining and supporting the people
00:39:40
on the wrong end of that trade. We're very much winners and losers. like sorry boss it's the hunger games here but I
00:39:46
think it'll be America actually if you look at the economy right now it's a giant bet on AI but there has been some
00:39:53
real investment in manufacturing of our industrial base and I think the only way we compete with China is to have these
00:39:59
types of factories China's way ahead on this stuff I mean all of Asia is in a lot of ways and
00:40:04
again AI gets all the attention but AI combined with robotics is really now there can be let me say there's there's
00:40:11
sort of a thing called human centric robots where it's not replace not just getting our coffee. Okay, that's right
00:40:18
where you go to. But I'm talking what I the stuff I was the exoskeletons to help people walk better, to help the elderly,
00:40:25
like eventually there there's all manner. And one of the things I had a really interesting discussion with Alex
00:40:30
who of is a mechan is mechanical engineering student. He's like why do robotics have like Elon Musk is they
00:40:37
laugh at Elon Musk here in Korea I have to tell you and because he's like going I'm going to make Optimus going to make
00:40:42
these you know humanoid robots. They don't have to look like humans. Like the real changes are in places like what
00:40:49
Amazon has done, which is they're robots. They're just not the robots you think of from science fiction. Um, you
00:40:56
know, doing a hand like Alice was like, why does a dog walking robot have to look like a person? In fact, that's
00:41:02
hard. They fall over the hand. It's funny. Like automation is a very And I think actually automation is not a is is
00:41:10
the right word, right? that's actually instead of calling it advanced technology, it's automation. Um, but
00:41:16
there's there's all kinds of ways robotics are going to affect us and especially when it's when it now like
00:41:21
this one thing I was wearing, it uses AI to collect data in real time about my body movements which would then calculate how these ro you robots should
00:41:32
be adjusted per person in real time. And it used to be they'd have to be adjusted
00:41:38
individually, but they don't have to anymore. Same thing with cars. Same thing. So the combination is really both
00:41:45
deadly to jobs and at the same time breathtaking in terms of savings like what it's going to do. So each year and this is this is a thinly veiled ad. I do my predictions
00:41:56
deck and that is sometime in November I put together a deck and I say these are my predictions for the oncoming year in
00:42:02
society, stock market, technology and each year I pick one of the big tech companies, one of the magnificent 10 or one of the big four actually, Apple, Facebook or Alphabet and I say this will be the best performing stock and this is
00:42:14
why. Last year I picked Alphabet. It's up 60% in the last year. Well done. Thank you. Pat myself on the back. This year um my pick is probably going to be
00:42:26
Amazon and that is it hasn't it's actually hasn't performed very well the last couple years and but traditionally
00:42:32
their margin expansion has been powered by uh AWS and the unsung hero of the business and that is Amazon media group running the ads on the platform and they force retailers
00:42:45
to run ads and it's very high margin now the margin expansion is happening in retail for over a decade, the
00:42:52
fulfillment and shipping costs ballooned more quickly than sales, decreasing margins. And then that reversed two
00:42:58
years ago and retail sales are now growing faster than shipping costs. That's cuz they got everyone to use Prime, right? They got everybody in on
00:43:05
on it. They were losing money on Prime, I would assume. But also because robotics and the huge
00:43:10
investment they've made in robotics is finally delivering operational leverage. Amazon expects to save about I think
00:43:17
about 13 billion dollars from 2025 to 2027 as a result of automation. And assuming no change in Amazon's enterprise valued IBITA to multiple I can as you can tell I'm doing a lot of
00:43:28
work on this that translates to roughly $200 billion extra in enterprise value. Plus it
00:43:35
expects to sell twice as many products in by 2033. I think all the investments they've made
00:43:41
in automation coupled with robotics and AI, they're about to get huge leverage. So whereas ads and AWS have added all the margin, I actually think retail is about to be where they expand their
00:43:53
margins. That's interesting. I think it's going to go across our envi the entire
00:43:58
country. Actually, when I at one time I was visiting um we would finish up on this, but um Kentucky and they were
00:44:04
talking about silicon holler and all this stuff and bringing back coal. remember Trump was a big black hole. And
00:44:10
I remember I stood up and I said, "They're going to bring it back by robots. What do they need you for? Like
00:44:16
you get sick. You have like you get it's bad for you to be mining coal." And I again I was cut off like don't say that. I'm like, "Well, of course they're going to use robots like or or whatever the
00:44:27
automation. I don't care what word you use." But what's astonishing is how good Korea and China and all these countries are and they're really making investments in robotics and you're
00:44:39
absolutely right Amazon has been far ahead of any other uh there are lots of manu that that's how we return with manufacturing but it's not going to be with people at all
00:44:50
but I would describe the last few years in terms of robotics as it relates to the retail as the investment phase and
00:44:55
it hasn't delivered it's been expensive and it hasn't delivered the leverage average yet, but I think that's pivoting and switching.
00:45:01
And the stock, even though it's up 20% in the last year, it's underperformed its competitors. Amazon typically trades at
00:45:08
a 5year average P multiple of 60. And right now, it's trading at 34. Mhm. Anyways, I think those I think that leverage, the fact that it's reasonably priced anyways, I'm I'm excited about
00:45:21
I'm excited about Amazon over the next 12 months. I'm glad you you've been focused on this. This is interesting. Anyway, let's
00:45:27
go on a quick break and we come back, we'll talk about Argentina's election results.
00:45:33
Support for the show comes from Apple. Before the show was even a podcast, all I had was an idea. And once I had that,
00:45:39
all I really needed to get started was a mic and a Mac. I have been starting businesses my whole life. One thing that
00:45:45
has been static, a constant in all of my business is Apple products. They just work. They send the right signal. Uh it sounds sort of strange but they make me feel good about myself. They make me
00:45:56
feel creative. But they have been just the foundation upon which I have built my businesses. No matter what you have
00:46:02
an idea for, whether it's starting the business you've been dreaming of, a game-changing piece of tech, or finally
00:46:08
writing that book, go for it. You just need to get started. Your great ideas start on Mac. Find out more on
00:46:15
apple.com/mac. Scott, we're back with more news. The payoff of Donald Trump to help the Argentinian economy has helped. Argentina's president Javier Malay's
00:46:27
party swept the country's midterm elections, winning 40% of the votes. They had to get above 35 compared with
00:46:33
around 204% for the main oppositions with their which are the peronis who had been running Argentina badly for many
00:46:40
years. President Trump endorsed Malay earlier this month and said a 20 billion currency swap bailout from the US was
00:46:46
contingent on his midterm success. Trump took truth social to congratulate Malay, saying he's making us all look good. And
00:46:53
don't worry about the cost of the bailout. Let's listen the comforting words of Treasury, the thirstiest Treasury Secretary I've ever seen, Scott
00:46:59
Bessant, on Meet the Press this weekend. It is America first because we are supporting a US ally. Uh there will be no taxpayer losses. This is a swap line.
00:47:13
This is not a bailout. Well, this is working. I mean this helped me I think quite a bit in in the
00:47:19
thing and there's been a lot of um pain what he's doing some of which is it should have happened because Argentina has had like enormous inflation and things like that but he's doing it in
00:47:30
sort of this incredibly um brutal way. Um so how talk about uh talk about this what explain what what Bessant was saying here where this is a swap line. This is not a bailout. Well, I believe
00:47:44
we're just exchanging dollars for pesos, but the peso has has a habit of of totally crashing and devaluing.
00:47:51
Argentina at the end of World War II was the third or fourth largest economy in the world because Britain had basically
00:47:57
spent everything it had. Two hugely productive economies were decimated, Japan and Germany. And Argentina has
00:48:05
been the kind of medium-sized engine that can't. It has been a [ __ ] disaster. Despite an incredibly
00:48:11
incredible blessing of natural resources, really good universities, an amazing culture, great natural
00:48:17
resources, they have just been [ __ ] over and over by kind of socialist corrupt governments.
00:48:23
The country has entered IMF uh has entered into IMF rescue programs 23 times since 1956, more than any other
00:48:32
nation. This nation has been has been bailed out more times than any other nation by the IMF. The most recent major
00:48:39
IMF loan uh to Argentina was for 57 billion in 2018 and it failed to stabilize the economy and led to a default just two years later. Over the past 50 years, Argentina has defaulted
00:48:51
defaulted nine times. So basically every 5 and a half years this country defaults
00:48:56
which has resulted in constant hyperinflation and peso devaluation. In the past year alone the US dollars
00:49:02
increased 350% against the peso. So the and this is let's call this for what it is. This is Trump bailing out one of his friends in major same thing like same thing.
00:49:14
But it's not even about Malay. It's about Rob Satron, a longtime associate of Treasury Secretary Bant who runs a
00:49:20
hedge fund and has significant exposure to Argentine bonds and stocks. And what does it do? Again, this is about [ __ ]
00:49:27
corruption. The bailout props up these prices, offering a crucial window or exit to mark up the investments of his
00:49:33
buddy who will make a huge donation to the Trump campaign. Stan Ducken Miller, Ben's former mentor at Soros Fund Management, is also involved. His Dukane family office was recently disclosed as
00:49:45
the second largest investor in Argentina's main exchange related fund traded fund. Catron, meanwhile, has made
00:49:52
Argentina his biggest bet in Latin America. This is just you're you're this is literally an orgy of corruption. It really is. It's just and and we're the ones that get like a
00:50:06
$5 tip and have been [ __ ] so many ways and we just leave the party, you know, you know, naked and like abused. And that's basically anyone that doesn't get
00:50:18
to hang out in the mansion who's not willing to fate the big fat man. I mean, it's just to think that this isn't going
00:50:26
to cost other hedge funds looking for true alpha and looking for investments to think that somehow we're not going to
00:50:32
end up bailing them out again. And to think about how just moronic this is. We put a tariff on China, which makes no
00:50:39
sense. They're smart. They go, I know I'm going to go for your heart and lungs. I'm going to go after the red states and the people who voted for you
00:50:44
four to one, the farmers, and we're going to stop buying all of your soybeans. Those farmers go out of
00:50:50
business, right? And who do the Chinese get their soybeans from now? Argentina where we're
00:50:56
soybean farmer. We're getting I mean, did you see that Bessant calling himself a soybean?
00:51:01
Yeah, he's a soybean. He's worth a half a billion dollars. Yeah, he's literally You are my wife. Goodbye, city life. City. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Anyone who's not real old like us
00:51:12
doesn't get that screen. Yeah. Doesn't get that. By the way, that guy, that guy, what was his name? Eddie. Ed. Ed Albert. Eddie. Eddie
00:51:20
Albert. producer Eddie Albert. He was a a very successful spy, a true patriot. That guy was an that guy led a very impressive life and yet he ended up on Green Acres.
00:51:31
[Music] Farm living is the life for me. Oh my god, I remember the whole song. Land spreading out so far and hot. New York is where I'd rather be.
00:51:44
Oh my god. Anyway, we're like them, you know. I love that. That was right before the Beverly Hillbillies.
00:51:50
I have that whole song in my [ __ ] head. Anyway, go ahead. Um, anyways, what we were talking about the origing
00:51:57
out, we're punishing farmers with sclerotic trade policy and then taking money and sending it to the new trade
00:52:04
the new the new supplier of soybeans, Argentina. That money, it's unlikely. Argentina needs structural reform. To Malay's credit, he is implementing structural reform. He is. I think he's
00:52:17
kind of exactly what Argentina needed. He would have won without Trump, but because of Trump, I think he got
00:52:23
more seats, more total power. Yeah. And I think you can pretty much write off prediction. You can write off 30 of
00:52:30
that $40 billion. It It's gone. Nothing's going to get in the way of the pace of devaluation over the short term.
00:52:36
This is an economy of structural issues. I hope they come out of it. Yeah. I was an investor in a company
00:52:42
that used to hire these amazing engineers from the Cordova University or University in Cordova, Argentina. And
00:52:48
the funniest thing was we had a down quarter and we were cutting the budget. It was a company called Olipek which we
00:52:53
ended up selling and it was a big win. Great three really super intelligent guys, two Spaniards, one Argentinian
00:53:00
guy. And the Argentinian guy was in charge of the engineering team. And we could get great engineers for like 40
00:53:06
grand instead of 140 or 240 outside of Cordoba. And the only line item that we could never cut was the assado budget. That was beef. Every Friday. Yeah.
00:53:17
They had assado. They had beef for all of the engineers. And that was like the only thing you were never allowed to
00:53:23
touch. This was the key to the entire culture. Wow. Was their beef. Well, you know, I I I when I was looking
00:53:30
at that before this happened, besides the Trump payoff, I think it did help him. I think it absolutely the money that he was getting from Trump. But one
00:53:36
of the things was everyone was like, "Oh, he's going to lose." I'm like, but the choice is the peronists were
00:53:41
terrible. Like 80 years of shitty management. I don't see that being the option. So he was the only option in a lot of ways even though uh it's taking its toll. He's also crazy. Like he's a
00:53:53
little seems insane, but you know, there you go. There you have it. We'll see what happens there. Uh all right, Scott,
00:53:58
one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails. Support for the show comes from AG1.
00:54:04
Getting through your daily routine can leave you pretty drained by the end of the day. AG1 is looking to help you keep
00:54:09
your energy last so you don't completely collapse when the sun starts to set. AG1 NextGen is a daily health drink
00:54:16
clinically shown to support gut health and fill in common nutrient gaps. With five probiotic strains and 75 plus
00:54:22
vitamins and minerals, AG1 NextGen replaces the need for a multivitamin, probiotics, and more. One scoop in the
00:54:27
morning with 8 to 12 ounces of cold water adds up to whole body health. I've used AG1 to help me get through my day,
00:54:33
and I have to say I like it. It's, you know, tastes good enough to know that it's healthy. Head to drinkagg.com/pivot
00:54:40
to claim your free welcome kit. You'll get a bottle of vitamin D3/K2, a shaker bottle, and a sample pack of all three
00:54:46
new AG1 flavors, tropical, citrus, and berry. Such so you can find your favorite. That's drinkagg.com/pivot
00:54:54
to try AG1 today. Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and fails. Well, my fail it's a it's a specific issue of a much larger trend that has
00:55:06
become the zeicist in our economy and that is the NBA gambling scandal. Oh yeah. So Miami Heat guard Terry Roger, I
00:55:13
believe his name is and Portland Trailblazers head coach Chanty Bops were among 30 arrested in an FBI
00:55:18
investigation that uncovered a poker rigging in illegal betting ring. Yeah, many politicians as well as the NBA
00:55:24
commissioner Adam Silver have increased calls to Congress to tighten regulations around sports gambling. Since the 2018
00:55:30
Supreme Court decision overturning a federal law that prohibits sports betting outside of Nevada, 38 states have legalized gambling on sports. By
00:55:36
the way, the first thing that happens when you legalize when you legalize betting in a state is bankruptcies go up 20 to 30%. Wages on sports hit 160
00:55:44
billion last year, making it larger than the the lottery. One in four adults say they personally bet money on sports. And
00:55:50
by the way, last year, one in two men just bet on the Super Bowl. And one in 10 US adults have placed a bet using an online sports book. Despite the proliferation, Americans see betting as
00:56:01
a bad thing. 43% of US adults agree that legal sports betting is a bad thing for society compared to just 34% who agreed
00:56:09
3 years ago. And this it pres I I don't want to infantilize young men, but they're more risk aggressive. And when you put a a dopa hit and betting in
00:56:20
their pocket, it is in godlike technology. And basically every ad now when you turn on this TV to watch
00:56:26
Premier League is£10 free when you sign up for 25. And folks, they make it impossible to win over the long term. If you're good at it, they basically don't let you bet anymore. And the newest
00:56:38
trend in sports betting, which will probably have the greatest appreciation in market cap in private companies, is
00:56:43
predictions markets, right? Poly. Currently the case is making its way through the court to decide the future of sports betting on
00:56:50
prediction markets and prediction market weekly volume is about $2 billion with about a fifth of the coming from sports
00:56:56
betting the highest category volume. Yeah. Anyways, the but but on a bigger level, a meta level, it's it essentially
00:57:05
is more indicative of our economy and that is we're we're the economy now resembles Vegas and it's not a thing. It's just betting. It's like crypto. It's not a thing. It's
00:57:17
not a making a thing. It's a it's something else. What would you call it? It's an economic activity. It's just not productive. Well, the houses always win. And the machines of our are narrative platforms,
00:57:28
high-tech IPOs, meme coins, dudes and hoodies pitching the next big thing. And it it value our value in the economy
00:57:35
now is not derived from character or hard work. It's from attention and speculation rather than goods and services.
00:57:41
And then the traditional levels of power, business innovation, labor productivity, real estate growth, they
00:57:46
all recede and young people no longer aspire or calories is what you're saying. Yeah. And they don't they don't develop the means, they don't develop the will, and they don't develop the patience for enduring value. Why?
00:57:58
Yeah, it's scary. Why why actually figure out a way to get through all the regulations and build a building when you can go get it financed
00:58:04
from Qatar by monetizing the White House? Or why even do that when you can just launch a a mean coin and then
00:58:11
essentially it means the winners get you know the winners a small group of people who can
00:58:17
own or control or monetize healthcare monetize the government win and the losers get stuck with the odds. So
00:58:26
we have godlike technology and gambling that's the dopa hit. For mo majority of our time on this planet, we haven't access had access to free free safe play and gaming. So when we have it, we we go
00:58:39
crazy with it. Also, there's people telling us we can be rich and we can be popular and we can get women and they
00:58:44
hit you at exactly the wrong time when you're most vulnerable. And you're just seeing more and more people have their
00:58:50
lives ruined by this [ __ ] And then the broader loss is that our economy is becoming about synthetic risk-taking, not enduring value, not the hard work,
00:59:03
the labor to build a company, to invest in relationships. You get a quick hit from this kind of gambling or casino like economy. I think it's just creating the wrong values and it's an erosion in
00:59:15
the character of long-term thinking. Yeah. No, we're a casino. But okay. So, what's your what's your win? What is my win? You go first. I got to think of one. Um, you know, my God, I have so many
00:59:28
fails happening at this time at this moment. But, um, probably the Jamaica and and Haiti and Cuba with the uh with the hurricanes headed our way. We're going to have a lot more hurricanes. Um,
00:59:40
and it sounds like it's going to a category 5 is going to hit this place. So, my thoughts are with the people there. I it seems very dire uh what's
00:59:48
happening there. And of course we've cut back on all kinds of really import speaking of important things we do
00:59:54
monitor. Um this is I just feel a sense of unease for them and also our own country which will get hit by all kinds of weather mishaps that are highly avoidable in terms of saving lives that
01:00:07
you can't you know we certainly have climate change issues that are making this worse but at the same time we
01:00:12
should be able to protect and save people. So I just worry uh for those right now it's happening right now actually um at this my other real fail
01:00:23
they're both real fails but this is is is all this which you're talking about these empty calories these you know
01:00:28
pathways to corruption that are everywhere you saw the media do it a bunch of times this week whether it was
01:00:33
Comcast putting money into the ballroom I must have really been difficult for Brian Roberts but he did it because he's
01:00:40
on the outs with Trump so give him some money for the stupid ballroom room. Um, and and when I think about that, the way
01:00:46
it could have been done, look, I'm not I'm not I don't care. Look, the White House is not that attractive a thing of our many things. I think the main part is, but the East Wing was is not
01:00:59
necessarily a winner, but the way to have redone it could have been so fantastic and bipartisan, and there
01:01:05
could have been a contest. It could have been everyone involved. It could have been interesting the way we you know
01:01:12
what the what the what the people who who are both pearl clutching and then attacking the pearl clutchers. I don't
01:01:18
think they're pearl clutchers. I think they really are sorry that happened that way is is it could have been done in such a great way like let's let's update
01:01:25
the White House. Let's do something and been a contest. You could have kids involved. you could have done a whole thing that would have united us versus
01:01:32
this [ __ ] which is he just does what he wants and then the people get upset about him doing what he want and it goes
01:01:38
back and forth. It was such a missed opportunity and you know that it feels like that all over the place. Whoever it
01:01:44
gets to do what they want to do is not American. It just feels very unamerican a lot of these things. Um, and then a
01:01:51
win. Um, you know, speaking of Brian Roberts, Taylor Sheridan, who's a really important producer, there's always a producer of the moment. He happens to be that. Um, he's behind Yellowstone and Landman.
01:02:02
Um, he is signed a deal to join NBC Universal. It's not for a few years, but when his Paramount deal is up, it's not
01:02:09
good for Ellison and Paramount, but it doesn't matter because Ellison is essentially a Nepo baby son of Larry
01:02:16
Ellison. So, he'll get his Tik Tok this week or he'll get his deal to buy Warner
01:02:21
and uh and everyone will fall into line, but I thought that was an interesting situation for Taylor. I I thought it was
01:02:27
a win for NBC. Uh but who knows who knows how much more Sheridan will keep, you know, having the hits, but still an interesting shift. But I think if we were or what I want to what I'm going to start doing is it's no
01:02:39
longer what are they calling it? I mean, I know it was called the East Wing. It's supposed to be called the ballroom now or the Grand Ballroom. I'm not calling
01:02:45
it that, but go ahead. Well, anyways, just a ballroom. From this point forward, we should we should call it what it is. And this is
01:02:52
the Epstein bedroom. There's the Lincoln bedroom. This is the Epstein bedroom. Cuz all this is is another attempt to distract us from
01:02:58
Jeffrey Epstein and the release of the Epstein file. So, and he won't seat Mike Johnson won't seat that uh that representative.
01:03:05
But the bottom line is it really isn't I quite frankly I don't think this is that big a deal. Obama had renovations. Okay.
01:03:11
Yeah, I don't like the way he's going about it for this is a massive this is different than anything.
01:03:16
I I do not think this is that meaningful. I really don't. I don't. But the way he did I think it's more like this wasn't America. Like this
01:03:23
is what I'm saying. The guys calling him to call off the San Francisco thing. Let's just tear it down without
01:03:28
consultation. Not even like that is unamerican. It is it is just not I guess maybe it is American. I don't know. Anyways, the win so the win is and just a reminder there is u for all this
01:03:41
performative masculinity around taking a trillion dollar a year expenditure and having missile strikes which may be
01:03:47
quite frankly extraditial uh murder at this point um which is just so performative in my opinion stupid there is a real war taking place with real lethal force
01:03:59
in Ukraine and according to I think it's Peter Orpo Finland's prime minister Ukraine Ukrainian forces do appear to have halted major Russian advances on some fronts. Ukraine's capac
01:04:11
Yes, that's right. And Ukraine's capacity to strike its targets inside Russia has improved. I do hope we
01:04:17
provide them with the longrange missiles and the tomahawk which is an incredible weapon to target. They're refining
01:04:22
capabilities. An opinion piece in the Guardian reports that Ukrainians mood in Kev is more confident now than a year
01:04:28
ago. Though the situation is still grave grave, there's much it still feels like the mood is upbeat. there's greater
01:04:35
resolve and discussions are advancing around using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine's reconstruction and
01:04:40
defense, which is on its own a sign of growing international alignment. So anyways, my my win and reminder is is
01:04:49
the the real fight here. The real lethality that is proving, you know, is upholding our freedom and our democracy is taking place. It's not off the shores of Venezuela.
01:05:01
It's in Ukraine right now where the Ukrainian army does continue to punch well above their weight class. So
01:05:06
anyway, that's my win. That's a good one because you know that's speaking of economic value. Think about the the windfalls that's going to
01:05:13
happen there as we rebuild that very vibrant and innovative culture, right? This is like an opportunity again an
01:05:19
opportunity for the United States to build real things versus this nonsense like you know all the different people
01:05:26
that have to suck up to Trump. It's grotesque to watch them one after the next, you know, sucking up to them. But
01:05:31
there's no economic value there. It's just a it's just a grift. It's just one long grift. And that's not how you make
01:05:37
things, right? You get to get ahead because you fluff a billionaire. Like, stop it. Like, it's just it has no it
01:05:45
has no economic value. And our whether you like us being involved in other countries or not, the best thing would
01:05:51
be to have a a peaceful Ukraine that will then innovate and create a better I don't know. It just seems like it's not econ none of this is economic. It's just drift and so it's very disappointing.
01:06:03
I'll tell you that. Anyway, uh we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever is on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot
01:06:10
to submit a question for the show or call 85551 pivot. And elsewhere in the Cara and Scott universe this week on
01:06:16
onwitha Swisser, which Scott Galloway is going to be on soon for his new book, I
01:06:21
spoke with writer, director, and producer Jud Appattow. Let's listen to a clip. If you can go on a computer and make it
01:06:28
look like deep space and it doesn't cost $3 million, it costs 40 grand. Well, clearly in some ways that will help people. It will decimate the people that made space.
01:06:39
But it seems like we're not going to be able to stop that when it gets cheaper. But the writing uh and the directing
01:06:46
will always wind up generic because it's scraped and it's just copying other things. Oh, we'll see about that, Jud. But he's
01:06:51
a really I mean that guy has got a history of really amazing uh work in comedy. Anyway, a very he he actually he's just
01:06:59
really shar what's happening. I thought it was a great talk. Um and a reminder he's really is. And a reminder we're
01:07:05
going but you're going to be even more impressive. Oh yeah. Go on. It'll be good. I'm going to let you talk
01:07:10
and talk and talk so you'll have a good time. Um reminder which I already do here. We're going to go on tour. will be
01:07:18
going to Toronto, Boston, New York, DC, Chicago, San Francisco, and LA. Scott and I are going to be together so much.
01:07:24
We're sold out in Toronto and San Francisco, and the other cities are very close. But visit pivotour.com,
01:07:29
especially you Chicago. We've got extra-large venue there. So, come and see us. We also got some surprises
01:07:34
there. Some good big names coming. Uh, okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot and make sure to like
01:07:40
and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back on Friday. Scott, read us out. Today's show is produced by Laram and Zoe Marcus and Taylor Griffin. Ernie or Todd engineered this episode. Ronnie
01:07:52
Polydoro edited the video. Additional support from Kate Gallagher and Brad Sylvester. Thanks also to Drew Bros, Mr.
01:07:57
Varo and Dan Shalon. Michox Media's executive producer podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast
01:08:02
platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine nymag.com/pod.
01:08:09
We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.