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Scott Galloway On Why He's Fascinated by Kalshi

March 20, 2026 / 01:19

This episode discusses the value of prediction markets and the criticism surrounding them, particularly focusing on listener feedback about Kelie percentages.

The host shares a listener's email expressing concern that citing Kelie percentages is more harmful than helpful, questioning the reliability of the data. The host acknowledges the conflict between fascination with data and the potential for it to be misleading.

They argue that prediction markets provide valuable insights, especially in political races and economic forecasts, as they reflect genuine beliefs through betting behavior. The host contrasts the effectiveness of prediction markets with traditional polling methods, citing their superior accuracy in recent elections.

Ultimately, the host expresses a love for data while recognizing the gambling aspect of these markets, highlighting the ongoing debate about their role in decision-making.

TLDR

The episode debates the reliability of prediction markets versus traditional polling methods.

Episode

1:19
00:00:00
I'll read an email from one of our listeners. I'm a journalist and a fan of
00:00:03
the show. I don't understand why I'm hearing Kelie percentages cited during
00:00:06
the show has said it's anything. It's people guessing. I think it's more
00:00:09
harmful than helpful. So, what do you think about that? >> This is one of those things I'm hugely
00:00:12
conflicted by cuz I am absolutely fascinated with the data. Where I would push back on the listener is, oh no,
00:00:19
this data is incredibly insightful. This is the wisdom of crowds. Whenever I'm
00:00:23
looking at political races, whenever I'm looking at interest rate movements, I go
00:00:27
to Khi. Typically the people who did this stuff were were academics, economists or an investment banking
00:00:34
analyst. All of them are conflicted. All of them want to catastrophize because it
00:00:38
makes us look smarter. All of us have third party influences. Nothing is more amoral and pure than money. When someone
00:00:45
bets on something, it really shows you what they really think is going to happen. These speculation markets or
00:00:50
prediction markets have essentially put pollsters and to a certain extent investment banking analysts out of work.
00:00:55
If you look at the prediction markets record versus pollsters in the last election, the prediction markets kicked
00:01:01
their ass. I love the data. I am swimming in the data. It's one of the first things I do before I get on a
00:01:07
show. I look at Cali data. I'm totally conflicted because at the same time, there's a really good argument that this
00:01:13
is just gambling.

Episode Highlights

  • The Wisdom of Crowds
    Exploring how collective data insights can outperform traditional polling methods.
    “The prediction markets kicked their ass.”
    @ 01m 01s
    March 20, 2026

Episode Quotes

  • This data is incredibly insightful.
    Scott Galloway On Why He's Fascinated by Kalshi
  • Nothing is more amoral and pure than money.
    Scott Galloway On Why He's Fascinated by Kalshi
  • I love the data. I am swimming in the data.
    Scott Galloway On Why He's Fascinated by Kalshi

Key Moments

  • Data Fascination00:11
  • Conflicted Views01:10