Search Captions & Ask AI

Will Reddit's IPO Be Successful?

February 28, 2024 / 07:57

This episode discusses Reddit's upcoming IPO, its valuation, and the impact of its business model. Key topics include Reddit's user base, advertising revenue, and a recent deal with Google.

The hosts talk about Reddit's valuation of at least $5 billion and its significance as the first major tech IPO of the year. They mention the platform's 73 million daily active users and its ranking among the most visited websites in the US.

They also highlight the implications of Reddit's advertising-heavy business model and the recent $60 million data licensing deal with Google, which has stirred controversy among users.

The conversation touches on the potential for Reddit to succeed in the IPO market, comparing it to other companies like Shein and discussing the overall market conditions that may favor a strong debut.

Finally, the hosts reflect on the cultural relevance of Reddit, particularly among younger users, and the platform's evolution over the years.

TLDR

Reddit's IPO could set the market on fire with a $5 billion valuation and a strong user base.

Episode

7:57
00:00:00
Reddit has filed to go public finally this will be the first major Tech IPO of the year and the first social media IPO
00:00:05
since Pinterest in 2019 if you can believe it the the platform's bankers are looking for a valuation of at least
00:00:11
$5 billion not too big it has 73 million daily active users and one of the most visited websites in the US in an unusual
00:00:19
move Reddit will reportedly offer 75,000 power users the chance to buy shares at
00:00:24
the IPO price I think other companies have done similar things first off Reddit has been around since 2005
00:00:30
um this will be a test for IPOs in general the advert their business is largely advertising um and uh now they
00:00:39
just there's and the probably the most controversial thing is this licensing a data licensing agreement they just
00:00:44
announced a $60 million deal with Google last week which I think people inside who use the company are not happy about
00:00:52
um so any thoughts talk me talk to me about this IPO well first off everyone's sort of waiting for the market to thaw
00:01:01
the IPO market and it probably is beginning or the atmospherics are lining up just because of the acceleration in
00:01:07
the markets the markets are reaching new highs and Nvidia has totally inspired kind of the animal spirits appear to be
00:01:14
returning and there's several IPOs lined up and everyone's waiting for one to really pop whether it's going to be
00:01:20
Reddit or Shen which is kind of the biggest now the biggest fast fashion company in the world I like Reddit a lot
00:01:27
I actually think this IPO could be a a real winner because I mean the first thing I did just very basic I type in
00:01:34
most traffic sites in America number one is Google number two is YouTube number three Reddit and number my kids use it
00:01:43
and number four is Facebook number five Amazon number six PornHub number seven Wikipedia and number eight Yahoo and my
00:01:51
attitude is Yahoo over Twitter it's not crazy I'm a shareholder in Yahoo probably but my thesis around Yahoo is
00:01:58
the same as my thesis around Reddit and is remember those charts I always used to put out 10 15 years ago saying
00:02:05
newspapers command 7% of people's attention but they get 18% of the advertising Revenue whereas the internet
00:02:10
is 30% of people's attention but only 9% of money and over time the two calibrate
00:02:18
they two they normalize they come in line with each other and so when you look at the most traffic sites in the
00:02:24
world they're usually you know one plus trillion dollar companies and so this company is going to go out supposedly at
00:02:31
a valuation of 5 billion and it's the third most traffic site in the United States enough said it's a bargain they
00:02:37
should be able to they should be able to figure this out still rely on Advertising quite a bit like that that
00:02:42
if you look at the numbers it's it's a really heavy and so they're they're subject toes of the market I get it I
00:02:49
get it you're right so does Google that's all this is this is a much smaller company like I've interviewed at
00:02:54
CEO Sam uh I mean um uh Steve Huffman quite a bit as I like like him he's he was really first on figuring out content
00:03:02
moderation they of course had a terrible back and you know around some really heinous sites there um on the site um
00:03:10
you know it's always been a little bit of a Shaggy Dog of a social media they did a $60 million deal they have a
00:03:16
little bit of that AI spice on their on their you know on their on their meal they got a 60 million bucks I think
00:03:23
that's going to go up or they might take the content inhouse this is the risk they can't be
00:03:30
Pinterest and snap that have kind of gone sideways and always end up being the little engines that could what I was
00:03:35
thinking yeah but if they if they continue to be one of the most traffic sites in the world they can put an AI
00:03:39
spin on this at five bill I mean let me just be transparent I'm going to try and
00:03:43
get stock in this thing I think this thing I think this could be either Sheen or Reddit are going to set the IPO
00:03:50
Market on fire I think Sheen is a is a retailer though of course right but Shen I mean it's another one we'll talk about
00:03:56
this another day but Sheen is now the largest fast fashion company in the world yeah and one of these one or both
00:04:03
of these is going to have a big pop because the market the IPO Market has been so thaw that I bet these get priced
00:04:09
fairly conservatively and there's so much money on five billion is low is very low
00:04:14
that's nothing and that's the problem is a lot if it sticks at five billion it's
00:04:17
not going to get a lot of anal coverage no one really cares about million companies do make money as I I think the
00:04:22
money I think they're cash dep positive I believe um what's interesting here's one that that that 9% of the voting
00:04:28
power at Reddit open a i CEO Sam Alman there he is pops up he invested um at a time when they were struggling a little
00:04:35
bit $60 million in shares because they were going to go IPO and then they weren't and then they were sort of owned
00:04:39
by K nask and they weren't you know what I mean they went through a lot this company has gone through a lot of
00:04:44
iterations yeah um and you know sort of coming out maybe they should be bought this people thought about buying them
00:04:50
then there was the controversy over those terrible the Trump forums and everything else and then I had an
00:04:56
interview with Steve and he said he was the first CEO to say to me about content
00:05:00
moderation you know we were very they're very they were the fir they were you know the the the Free Speech wing of the
00:05:06
Free Speech party right those gu of of the people I interviewed but he was also the first person who said to me some
00:05:13
people are just malignant actors and we're going to throw them out and nobody had ever said that and they had no
00:05:19
resources to do it and that was a big deal when he said that to me I was sort of like this the company with the least
00:05:26
ability to do anything about it was articulating something that just made perfect sense right and this was a
00:05:32
company that was so free speechy you couldn't I mean they and they got in trouble for it
00:05:37
very I share tell me about Altman what do you think about Altman just curious first his investment gets this thing at
00:05:44
least another billion dollar in valuation because it's more of that AI sprinkling it's more that AI pixie
00:05:50
everybody thinks Sam Alman maybe with the exception of Jensen Hong is the smartest person in the world and he's an
00:05:56
investor and a shareholder here one of these companies is going to going to have a triple digit opening day uh in
00:06:02
the IP Market we're going to be off the races I like interesting goodness I think this is a great I like it yeah I
00:06:08
like it a lot and only that Reddit it's a global brand people know it it is it's
00:06:12
a global brand what how many Global Brands can you pick up for five billion bucks right not just that it's a youth
00:06:17
brand too my kids I was surprised they use two things YouTube quite a bit but Reddit just as much it's a really and
00:06:24
they don't use it for chitchatting they use it for videos and consumption which they don't like they don't like Tik Tok
00:06:29
I know it sounds crazy but they find it too performative and they love they think Reddit feels more real um it's an
00:06:35
entertainment vehicle for them so you know it's a a really interesting hack that I didn't discover type in your
00:06:42
search and then add the word Reddit and see what comes up oh really interest there's a whole thing on why we're so
00:06:48
annoying on Reddit just do you know that oh really they try they vote about which
00:06:53
one of us is more annoying that that's a tough one that's not an easy call No but
00:06:59
really that's a photo finish I'm insufferable but interesting you are the most annoying I'm sorry to tell you but
00:07:06
oh you already decided is that Reddit I no I looked at it I'm looking at Reddit I like I there's there's whole sections
00:07:12
talking about oh good we're back for those of you wondering we could go 10 minutes without talking about us tell me
00:07:17
about your book Cara no no no but let me tell you I went there and I it popped right up it was I was looking have you
00:07:23
heard about our therapy session Jesus this really is a Scot love that people love that it is Scot and Care show but
00:07:29
I'm saying it was really interesting it was it's just endlessly interesting information but there's a whole section
00:07:35
of whether we're annoying or not that's well the answer is yes yes but but as long as we're entertaining that's fine
00:07:41
that's what I said I was like I almost popped in and went hey girls Reddit watch out I'm I'm calling it now redit
00:07:48
Reddit first first trade first trade way up

Episode Highlights

  • Reddit's IPO Filing
    Reddit has filed to go public, marking a significant moment for tech IPOs.
    “This will be the first major Tech IPO of the year.”
    @ 00m 02s
    February 28, 2024
  • Valuation Expectations
    The platform's bankers are aiming for a valuation of at least $5 billion.
    “They're looking for a valuation of at least $5 billion.”
    @ 00m 10s
    February 28, 2024
  • Controversial Licensing Deal
    Reddit announced a $60 million data licensing agreement with Google, stirring internal discontent.
    “The probably the most controversial thing is this licensing a data licensing agreement.”
    @ 00m 41s
    February 28, 2024
  • Market Conditions
    The IPO market is showing signs of thawing, with several companies poised to go public.
    “Everyone's waiting for one to really pop.”
    @ 01m 16s
    February 28, 2024
  • Reddit's Traffic Ranking
    Reddit ranks as the third most trafficked site in the U.S., behind Google and YouTube.
    “Number three is Reddit.”
    @ 01m 37s
    February 28, 2024

Episode Quotes

  • This could be either Sheen or Reddit setting the IPO market on fire!
    Will Reddit's IPO Be Successful?
  • Reddit is a global brand!
    Will Reddit's IPO Be Successful?
  • My kids use Reddit just as much as YouTube!
    Will Reddit's IPO Be Successful?

Key Moments

  • Valuation Discussion00:10
  • User Share Opportunity00:19
  • Market Thaw00:55
  • Traffic Ranking01:37

Tension Over Time

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown