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Dan feifer is the co-host of crooked media's pod save America he's also the host of a new podcast polar coaster ha
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which is launching this week and we'll feature analysis on the latest polls and voter Trends welcome Dan thanks for
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having me so since you're the expert here let's start with some polling over the weekend the Wall Street Journal
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released a new poll with voters giving Biden the lowest job approval of his presidency at 37% in a head-to-head
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match up with Trump trump beats Biden 47 to 43% now I we know it is early um uh the poll also shows uh Trump
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continuing to dominate the Republican field nearly 60% supporting him that's not new uh but Nikki Haley has numbers
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that are a stronger general election candidate beating Biden by 17 points uh so talk to us about this latest one
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because there's been a slew like this it's early again it it it is early and there's been a uh consistent set of
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these numbers are all kind of in the neighborhood slight Trump lead Biden under 40 approval rating Trump
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advantages on the economy immigration crime Israel Gaza with Biden holding an abortion on holding advantage on
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generally abortion and democracy and you know those civility those sorts of issues and I think it is like these are
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the polls that democrats should take seriously but not literally right that there is no question that if the that
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democ that Joe Biden is in if the election were held today Joe Biden would be in trouble and you can and would lose
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but if you there's a very simple I think explanation like in pure math as to why
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Trump is winning and Biden is not is that in look at the Wall Street Journal poll is that Trump is getting 92% of his
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2020 voters and Biden's getting 87% and that five and that is consistent across all of the polls and if and that is both
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that is alarming but that if you're look if you're the Biden team and you're looking for a silver lining those are
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the easiest voters to get back are the ones who've already cast the ballot for you and that's got to be what the focus
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is is heading into next year is beginning to rebuild that Coalition if you do that then we are headed for a
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once again a very very close election but one that is very winnable for Joe Biden okay so we keep hearing also about
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Nikki Haley momentum but realistically is there any scenario where she gets the nomination I would say no I think that
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if you look Nikki hilly is a non- Maga candidate in a Maga party uh there is a a whole bunch of polling shows that
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Ronda Sanz is actually a much more likely Republican nominee than Trump in an NBC poll the Republican primary from
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earlier this month More than 70% of Republican voters have Trump as their first or second choice 54% of Republican
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voters have DeSantis as their first or second choice and only 28% have Nikki Haley as their first or second choice
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and so her Universe of voter she's you know a factional candidate if you will she is consolidating this minority of
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the party and it's actually in a weird way way hurting her her approval rating keeps going down the better she does in
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the polls because she's going from being a non-trump to an anti-trump candidate so her net approval rating right now is
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12 points it's 4230 to santis for who we all very much myself at least make spent
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a lot of time making fun of for what an awkward weird terrible candidate he is he has a net approval rating of 45%
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right and Trump's net approval rating of above 60 and so n he's the other Trump he's the he's the other Trump right and
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if Donald Trump were to go to prison tomorrow Dr drop out of the race defect to Russia whatever else Ronda Sanz would
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be the overwhelming favorite to defeat Nikki Haley in a primary in a primary situation even though the general it's a
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real problem for yes yeah Nikki Haley is at least as we can tell right now and she's an she's a relatively generic
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non-trump Republican in the eyes of Voters uh but as of right now she's obviously I think very clearly the most
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electable Republican who who is in the m mix is in the mix but Trump carries those fans the F he has San doesn't have
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um let me ask you one more question then Scott will have a bunch of question I'm
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sure is is Biden they seem unworried in the Biden minut I've talked to a lot of people and I should they be more worried
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they sort of have this you know Grandpa's going to win again good old grandpa once you get a taste of crazy
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uncle you know great uncle Trump everyone will go oh that guy um what how do you it seems like that's a little
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sleepy to do and I hate to use the term sleepy around Joe Biden you know I think
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it's just it's like should they be more you know but the last time everyone counted him out and there he was okay
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let's just have grandpa again kind of thing he's safe I think my guess is that in reality the Biden folks are less
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worried than the general uh Democratic party which is in a state of sort of abject Panic at this point as they
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always are as they always are that is not unusual um the term weather was invented for a reason to describe my
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party um but I think they're more they are more worried or at least more um aggressively trying to shape the race
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and some of these public comments make because they spent $25 million in ads in the off year and that's not something
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you do if you think this race is going to naturally revert to the mean where it'll be Joe Biden with a four or fiveo
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national poll lead so I think that they are more worried than we think they are but I understand why there's no point in
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panicking right you have to go about doing your work I think they see the path to getting there but some of the
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things that they have tried thus far have not move the needle and I think that is probably
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worrisome Dan good to see you um so my sense of polls at this point aren't very good proxies for what will actually
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happen in terms of who wins and who loses but it can be really helpful in terms of identifying key issues and
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messaging if you were advising the candidates what messages do you think are bubbling up that weren't there four
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years ago that they want to focus on and then I'd be curious do for you to do the
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same analysis that you did on the Republicans on the Democratic side like is there
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another is it is that also a foregone conclusion that Biden's a nominee sure you're exactly right that the polls this
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far out have very little predictive value of what's going to happen but they are essential for understanding it's
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taking the temperature of where we are right now and so you know put us at you know we are to we talk all about polls
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media polls the ones on by The Wall Street Journal the NBC but campaigns are doing all these polls at the same time
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and every from everything I hear Democrat Democratic polls are seeing the exact same trends that we're seeing in
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the public in the public polls so this is everyone has the same analysis of where we are and I think it's a couple
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of things that uh would be the advice I would give Democrats and and Biden in particular here is one and you can see
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them doing this already is you have to make this more of a choice choice right in all of these polls people are much
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more focused on Joe Biden than Donald Trump and for a lot of Voters they haven't really thought about
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Trump at all since 2021 right you see this in in the NB New York Times Sienna poll the percent of Voters who are
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concerned about Donald Trump's temperament has gone down since 2020 the percent of Voters who think Donald Trump
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is unfit mentally for office has gone down since 2020 and so you have to we have to focus
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the mind on the fact that Donald Trump is running and he is going to be the nominee and he has a very good chance of
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being president going forward the second thing is on the economy we have to stop
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like we're Democrats are in this debate of well people are unhappy but the economy is great and it's doesn't really
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matter what the macak numbers say it matters how people actually feel and I think this is you know I know you guys
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have talked this this a very very strange economy for a lot of people and how they experience it and so so we have
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to shift jobs the jobs numbers are a low priority for Americans right now their issue is not whether or not they're
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going to have a job it is what the cost of goods are it's not what the rate of inflation is it's the price of things
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and I think Democrats need to shift the framework more to away from here's what we've accomplished here's what all the
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progress we've made and focus really hard use what they've done as proof points for how they can lower costs and
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raise wages going forward and do that in a very contrastive way with Trump and all of these polls a place where Biden
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has real strength is that voters think that Donald Trump and the Republicans are more are less on the side of the
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middle class and more friendly towards the wealthy in corporations than Democrats and you want to draw that
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contrast so it has to be a choice not a ref it is a shi that's right there's also a lot of U prognosticating about
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what a potential Trump second term would be which is sort of the fear method of doing that Trump uh had the town hall
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with Shan Hannity last week where he didn't exactly say no to abusing power in a second term noting he would be uh
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dictated only on day one which you can do a lot in a day um you wrote about this in your newsletter saying many of
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the responses to Trump's comments are playing right into his trap obviously he's playing games I mean you can tell
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it by his smirk um how should we be talking about it I mean it's it's very it's terrifying and also what an [ __ ]
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you know you sort of get that same feel off of Elon Musk or or any of these like
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they're just trying to [ __ ] with you essentially yeah he very clearly was sort of smirking and Sean Han was
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completely flx that why Donald Trump would not take his repeated offers of a Lifeline in that moment but there is we
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have focused and I think rightfully on Donald Trump saying on day one but what keeps getting left out is what he said
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right after that which he's gonna he basically said I'm going to abuse power to secure the border and quote drill
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drill drill right so what he is trying to do is to say I am going to be an authoritarian but I'm going to be an
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authoritarian for you here's how I'm going to help your life right these we know that these things people care a lot
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about cost of energy and border is at the top of it's right below inflation on a lot of the polls in terms of concerns
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for voters what democrats should do is not we is we should avoid some traps first is we shouldn't run around talking
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about how strong Donald Trump is because strength is part of his appeal we have to talk about
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his NE the fact that he is weak right that he Donald Trump has never stood up to anyone in his life he Batts down to
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CEOs he bows down to dictators he's running for president not to help you but he's afraid to face the consequences
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for his actions in office last time make it about his weakness right Donald Trump
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what did is a trap to make us talk about how strong and fearful he is that that's
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one two we have to talk we have to empower voters to be the ones who can stop Donald Trump it's not that it is
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inevitable that he's going to take over the Robert Kagan column of his his dictatorship inevitable we have the
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power to stop him next then I think this is really important is we have to talk about how what Donald Trump would do how
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him being a dictator or seizing power abusing power would affect you right I think that one great way to do
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this is talk about abortion right the the Heritage Foundation and others have talked about how even if Donald Trump is
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unable to pass a federal abortion ban they can weaponize the federal government to put in fact a deao federal
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abortion ban right that they're going to you can do that across the board on issues about pollution and protecting
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clean air and clean water about helping workers right how Donald Trump will use the federal government to make it harder
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for you know the workers who who were on strike at UAW or at Starbucks and all of
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those things we have to make it matter people because if we don't and we just say Donald Trump's going to destroy
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democracy we are sort of by default saying that we are the ones who are going to defend this political system
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that most voters say is corrupt and doesn't work for them and so it has to be very very specific because if not
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we're just having this esoteric argument that means nothing to most voters and to
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most voters in some ways actually underg guards some of Trump's appeal that helped Propel him in 2016 he's a strong
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man uh Scott so the polls look really ugly for Biden so we we immediately think I mean
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they're kind of they're kind of shocking and so you immediately think oh wow things are going well for us if you're
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Progressive but anytime there's an election whether it's the legislature in I think it was Virginia or the the
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abortion bill in Ohio it appears that blue is winning everywhere what's wrong here I every
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time I see an actual election where people don't respond to a telephone or a phone survey they actually go in and
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pull pull a handle or or check a box it feels like we're doing really well this is a qu people have been
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really trying very hard to square this circle right the polls look bad but Democrats keep winning and both things
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can be true at the same time because these surveys we're looking at are surveys of the overall presidential
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election electorate which is in Most states 30 to 40% bigger than the people who vote in a midterm or even in a
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Donald with people V in midterms doing in these polls people who didn't even vote in 2020 that's a huge part of his
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advantage in the New York Times Sienna poll is he's beating Biden by 15 points by people who did not vote in 2020 so
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these are two separate universes and as of right now the Joe the presidential election universe is less Democratic
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friendly than the um than the midterm universe and this is the the part have switched in this regard as the Democrats
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have become more a party of college educated Suburban voters when I worked for President Obama Republicans were a
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much more reliable midterm party which is why Republicans could crush in the 20110 midterms and then lose pretty
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handily in 2012 when Obama was on the ballot and the reverse is true now have you I just have a have a couple
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followup questions one since 2016 when Trump won my guess is 10 or 20 million American voters have died and there's 10
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or 20 million new voters how has that so you you've lost 70 and 80 somethings and
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you've gained 18 to 26 year old something how has that change the electorate and I would just be curious
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if you have thought about how the conflict in the Middle East is uh likely playing out and does it Advantage Trump
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or Biden and let me put that put a caveat it's a year from now there'll be a whole different topic a year from now
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we won't be talking about this right goad um it is the 2020 2020 was a better Joe you
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know Joe Biden won the pp more than Hillary Clinton did in 2020 for a number of reasons but one I'm sorry Joe Biden
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did better in 2020 Hillary Clinton did in 2016 the popular vote for many reason one of them is the electorate was
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becoming slightly more demographically friendly to Democrats now the challenge right now for Democrats is Donald Trump
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has made gains it is a question about how much those gains are with younger Latino and black men so so
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that accounts for some of the demographic change where a few years ago we thought those would automatically be
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de Democratic votes at you know 85% Democratic and it's much less than that now and the the one of the challenges
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for Biden is his Mis most disaffected group the people who are most willing to either sit out the election or uh vote
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for a third party candidate like Cornell West or RFK junor are voters 18 to 29 so
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if Biden was performing at 2020 levels with those younger V you would sort of see that uh more democratic shift in the
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electorate based on those demographics but that's not being maximized right now because of opinions on Biden on Gaza the
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polling on this is incredibly confusing um because the narrative we all get is uh younger Democratic voters are very
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angry at Joe Biden in the CBS News poll that came out on Sunday the only group that do that the group with the highest
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approval rating of Joe Biden on handling the Israeli Gaza the Israeli Hamas conflict is voters 18 to 29 it's 50/50
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and Joe Biden's underwater with all the other groups they also asked people what
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to uh prioritize issues only 4% of Voters put the Israeli Hamas conflict as a high priority for them and so I think
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but it could have a real impact in some states like Michigan that have a very large um Arab American population uh in
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particularly Palestinians and so it could be If This Were to remain I think Cara's caveats incredibly important is
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if if if this still were at the top of the news a year from now or 11 months from now then that's what the impact
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could be yeah recent history says these things tend to fade in the American mindset when they're happening abroad
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and maybe that will be the case here I don't know but it's very possible if not likely I will say talking to a lot of
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young people they are irritated by Biden they they are for sure and they don't think about Trump right now but I think
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they've lived with only Netanyahu that's why I just feel they don't know anyone else but so they don't like Netanyahu
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but at the same time I think once they get a taste of Uncle crazy I think that'll they'll remind them of the same
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thing especially around abortion abortion is a staying issue it feels like yes 100% with women especially even
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everyone says oh now they're done with abortion I don't think women are done with that putting putting Protections in
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place and I don't think they much like book that's another thing I hear it's like the book all the all the
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meddlesomeness of the Republicans especially the religious stuff from my Johnson seems to stick in their craw
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seems lasting MH okay Scott last question if you were to pick sort of a best or worst exogenous event for either
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candidate what would it be the best thing that could happen for Joe Biden and democracy would be Donald Trump
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being convicted in the January 6 trial in the for all the bad news uh all the I guess the good news for Donald Trump and
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all this polling is in that New York Times C poll they actually asked people what would happen if Donald Trump was
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convicted and six only 6% of Voters switch their vote away from Trump but that 6% is enough to tip the election to
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Joe Biden and I think we we do not spend enough time talking and thinking about what the very very real possibility that
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Donald Trump will be sentenced to prison for multiple federal crimes three or four months before the election and if
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that were to happen that is a we're not I don't think we're fully anticipating what a big game changer that is could be
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for sure yeah yeah that I would agree I think people do change their mind on something like oh maybe not kind of
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thing I don't know anyway Dan this is fascinating again you have a new podcast um you obviously on pod Safe America uh
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each week but your new podcast polar coaster just laughing at that I'm sorry uh how did how long did they come up did
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it take to come up with that we polar coaster was the term that we would use in the Obama campaigns for the people
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who were checking the polls every single day uh and we say and Dav get off get off the [ __ ] polar coaster we've used
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that a little bit on P America over the years and my goal here with this podcast
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is to help people understand what the polls mean and think about what to use it for completely ignoring poles that's
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why this is this I that is a there there there going to be people in this world who want to ignore the polls and that's
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that's very healthy but if you can't ignore the polls and you're going to live and die with them and you want to
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understand what they really mean this is the podcast for you if you go to c.com you can get it I don't buy it tell me
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you do Edibles without telling me you do Edibles anyway it kicks off polar coaster kicks off December 14th I like
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polar coaster wait pass the Doritos that's right let's watch let's watch South Park and we're out okay J thank
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you so much awesome thank you guys