00:00:00
His brand is firing. His brand is getting rid of incompetence. And now he has he keeps them. And you're like, "Oh
00:00:05
my god, you're keeping the incompetence." Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York
00:00:14
Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisser. Scott is off, so I brought in a brilliant co-host
00:00:20
again, as are everyone who's not Scott. uh Kristen Sulttus Anderson, pollster
00:00:26
and co-founder of Echelon Insights and contributing opinion writer for the New York Times and someone I really like a
00:00:32
lot who's super smart. Nice to see you. >> Well, thanks for having me, Cara.
00:00:36
>> Yeah. So, um welcome. What's going on? What's going on? The world of polling is
00:00:40
insane right now. Correct. >> It's it is as insane as it can be considering that there is not an
00:00:47
election that is imminent. uh you know like the world gets polling world gets crazy in the immediate leadup to an
00:00:53
election because somebody's got a new survey coming out every day in some interesting swing state when it is
00:00:59
election season but right now it's a little bit of the doldrums for that and
00:01:02
so what is instead kind of crazy is all of the changes around how is AI going to
00:01:07
change our industry and those sorts of things. >> We're going to get to that. We're going
00:01:10
to talk about the predictions industry. We're going to play a little bit of Scott who loves it. I don't love it
00:01:14
quite so much and I know you hasn't thought. So, it's really important to be
00:01:17
talking about it because what we're interested in is accurate information and it's very hard to get it. Anyway, uh
00:01:23
there's so much going on. Let's get right to the news because you've been
00:01:25
doing tons of stuff in the times and elsewhere and we've talked a little bit
00:01:28
about but we of course have to start with Donald Trump has once again issued an ultimatum to Iran. I think it's the
00:01:34
27th one posting on True Social on Easter Sunday. Quote, and let me just read this correctly. Open the [ __ ]
00:01:40
straight you crazy bastards or you'll be living in hell. which sounds like a line
00:01:45
from I don't even think movies would write those lines anymore. Um, if Iran doesn't comply, Trump is threatening to
00:01:51
target the country's power plants and bridges. Iran says it will retaliate crushingly and extensively if civilian
00:01:58
infrastructure targets are hit. So, they're just coming back with the same dialogue. This all comes after a
00:02:04
successful rescue of two US airmen whose jet was shot down uh over Iran on Friday. It's not great, but the jets
00:02:10
were shot down. We're taping this before Trump's press conference on Iran and
00:02:14
these military rescues. So Kristen, most polls show the majority of Americans are
00:02:18
opposed to this war, right? Pretty significantly. You recently did some polling with Trump's MAGA base. Talk a
00:02:24
little bit about what's happening here uh in the polling and the thinking around it.
00:02:29
>> Yeah. So normally historically when the US gets into conflict uh overseas
00:02:34
there's normally a little bit of a rally around the flag effect um because normally we are getting involved in
00:02:40
response to some kind of provocation um whether it was after 9/11 etc. Um in this case there was not really
00:02:48
groundwork laid to make the case to the American people for why we needed to do this. And so, you know, in my polling
00:02:55
when you say, "Would it be legitimate to engage in military activity against the
00:03:00
Iranian government if they were developing a nuclear weapon, like twothirds of Americans say yes to to a
00:03:06
bunch of those different kinds of things, but it's clear that that case wasn't really made well to the public
00:03:11
because then when you say now, do you support or oppose what we're doing in Iran?" Most don't don't support it. Um,
00:03:17
or they have some real serious questions. In fact, it is the MAGA base that is the most supportive of what
00:03:24
we're doing. Um, there's so much interesting discourse around how Donald
00:03:30
Trump reshaped the Republican party and there's this view that there is the old
00:03:35
Republican party that like longs for the day of Ronald Reagan and says, you know,
00:03:40
we love when the United States projects its power overseas and that Donald Trump
00:03:44
has, you know, reashioned the Republican party in his own image away from that. No more forever wars. America first and
00:03:50
all of that, but actually when you ask voters who identify themselves as like Trump supporters first before being
00:03:57
Republican supporters, they are the most likely to sort of say if Donald Trump says it's a good idea, I'm kind of
00:04:03
willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on this. Even though they backed him for America first and no foreign
00:04:08
wars. Not everybody. Obviously, Marjorie Taylor Green put out a pretty big long well a lot of things that she put out
00:04:14
about his health and his mental state and stuff like that, but um why is that? Why is the shift? Is just whatever he
00:04:21
says goes or they don't really care what the words are or the policies. >> There are some people who are part of
00:04:29
Donald Trump's coalition who are pretty, you know, they don't want the US to be
00:04:34
involved in military activity overseas. They're very outspoken >> and they're quite outspoken about it,
00:04:39
but those are different from MAGA voters. And I think there's a it's like
00:04:43
very easy to kind of conflate like the MAGA movement equals everybody who voted for Donald Trump and like that's not
00:04:48
true. Um there are a lot of people who in fact in some of the polling that I've
00:04:53
seen it is the type of voter who is not a Republican and is pretty isolationist is among the most likely to have like
00:05:00
come joined the Republican coalition recently. So Donald Trump does have a potential political problem with some
00:05:07
people who really liked him and feel betrayed by what he's doing. But the core MAGA faithful and the Republican
00:05:14
party as reconstituted by Donald Trump at the moment is reserving judgment and saying, you know what, I think he's
00:05:20
probably on the right track. Let's see how this plays out. And how many people
00:05:24
is that? What is the amount? Because majority of he's lost in the numbers are
00:05:27
pretty staggering when you look at any poll. almost every one of them including Fox polls, all kinds of polls.
00:05:33
>> Yeah. So, the I sort of estimate that the MAGA movement is about a quarter to
00:05:39
a third depending on I mean it's a it's a pretty fluid section of the Republican
00:05:44
party, but it's not half the country. And I think the big political risk Donald Trump faces is like it didn't
00:05:51
have to be something where he was losing a majority of Americans. He could have,
00:05:55
I think, communicated at least somewhat effectively about, hey, this is a government that's been declaring death
00:06:00
to America for decades, and here are these specific things that they are doing that put us at risk. Here's why
00:06:05
I'm going to do this. Here's what I'm going to take out. And I don't think it
00:06:08
had to be a situation where he was losing half the public right from the get-go. Um but because of that lack of
00:06:15
clarity in communication that has not really been followed by a ton of clarity in communication like the numbers are
00:06:22
getting worse not better right okay so what talk about that for a second the clarity and communication because a lot
00:06:27
of it is marketing you're talking about marketing like we're going to market
00:06:31
this more to you why why was it not there and what impact how how because most people do give pes the benefit of
00:06:39
the doubt something was up although he had previously bombed them and said he obliterated them so why the need to
00:06:44
obliterate them again. I mean, I I even had Tom Tillis saying that, like, oh, we
00:06:49
obliterated, then we obliterated, and now I guess we're obliterating. He was
00:06:52
sort of articulating that lack of clarity. Yeah. Well, I I don't know that I would just say that it is marketing
00:06:59
because I think for something like this, I mean, it to me the bar does feel higher than trying to sell somebody soda
00:07:05
or potato chips or sneakers. I know that's not what you're saying, but I I
00:07:10
think that the >> it's not just can you put out a snazzy video that makes it look like we're
00:07:16
winning at a video game and you win because that's that's obviously part of
00:07:19
the strategy and and yet the numbers are are what they are. That I think it is just that the the American people simply
00:07:26
want to know why is this in our interest? And if you can give a reasonably good answer to why something
00:07:32
is in our interest, we tend as a people to sort of give the commander-in-chief, maybe not today with Donald Trump as
00:07:39
such a polarizing figure, but we tend to say, "Okay, if you think that this is in
00:07:43
our best interest, like I'll give you a couple weeks to see how this plays out."
00:07:47
And especially if the costs are not significantly high, people will give a little bit more of that runway. one, you
00:07:55
know, I mean, thank goodness that they have gotten these pilots back because that's that's the kind of thing where
00:08:00
it's it is I can't wait to hear the like thrilling story of how this was done,
00:08:04
but a combination of if military losses begin to pile up in a very significant way or the domestic impacts of the
00:08:11
straight of Hormuz, gas prices, all of that, you know, you can run out of that goodwill much more quickly. But right
00:08:18
now, he didn't start with the the reservoir of goodwill that as a president you would want. Some of that's
00:08:24
because he's Donald Trump and there's just some people who aren't going to
00:08:27
like anything he does. But he also starts with people who will like anything he does. Uh who do sort of give
00:08:33
him that benefit of the doubt even if they would not give a president Marco Rubio or President JD Vance that same
00:08:39
leeway. And it does not seem like he has taken this moment. And his numbers have
00:08:45
not gone up at all. They're going down. They're going down with everybody.
00:08:49
Correct. So let's talk about that because the the numbers really are decline. They keep declining, which is
00:08:54
really usually doesn't happen, especially for the midterms. President Trump's approval rating is just at 35%
00:09:00
for his handling of the presidency overall and 31% for his handling of the economy, according to recent CNN
00:09:05
polling. However, the news isn't great on either side. About a quarter of the
00:09:09
country holds negative views of both parties. That's something not a fresh thing. Talk about when you look at this
00:09:15
information as it is. You know, one of the things about Donald Trump is he's
00:09:19
unprecedented. He's unprecedented in the decline and he's still standing kind of
00:09:23
stuff. He keeps taking the punches here from a polling and and and you can feel it. I have a lot of MAGA not MAGA Trump
00:09:30
adjacent relatives and they really don't like him like suddenly. Um and they
00:09:35
never would express that before. There's I think two things that are that are
00:09:40
ominous for Republicans. The first is with everything that's going on in foreign policy, um, foreign policy is
00:09:48
not most voters number one issue, but it is the background music. It is the thing
00:09:54
that tells you what the commander-in-chief's values are. It says a lot about what his temperament is. is
00:10:00
I mean we already this is what he's interested in like not daycare not >> this is well covered territory with
00:10:06
Donald Trump in some ways but it just sort of focuses the mind a little on like what is it that this person is all
00:10:11
about you you frankly saw something like this with Biden when you saw his job approval as we withdrew from Afghanistan
00:10:19
and as that went terribly that was the moment when his job approval went underwater and never recovered. It's not
00:10:25
because most voters said what we do in Afghanistan is my number one issue, but it just it like communicates something
00:10:32
about the level of competence and priority setting and decision-m within the Oval Office that like carries over
00:10:38
and bleeds over into how people think on a whole variety of issues. Um, that's
00:10:42
risk number one. Risk number two on the economy. Um, I I don't want to take credit for this, but this was the my
00:10:49
friends at the Central Air podcast were talking about this that essentially Donald Trump had really good numbers in
00:10:55
his first term on the economy. Even among voters who didn't like him overall, thought he was crude, thought
00:11:01
he was crass, thought he was a jerk, all of that. They still thought, not all of
00:11:04
them, but a small subset thought, "Yeah, but at least he's good on the economy."
00:11:08
And when COVID happened, he still got kind of a pass. Like people sort of understood
00:11:14
>> not his fault. Yeah, like he did not create this virus. For all his faults,
00:11:18
he's this is this this was not on him. Um >> for all the bleach infected in
00:11:23
for this time around, there's really no one else he can blame for the state of
00:11:30
the economy. And he has tried to say, I'm just cleaning up Biden's mess. But
00:11:34
you kind of run out of runway on that eventually where voters say like I'm t
00:11:38
like Biden is so irrelevant to me. I'm tired of hearing about him. Just tell me
00:11:42
what you're doing. What are you going to do? I I I don't I don't care what
00:11:46
happened in 2023, 2024. Um the fact that his numbers on the economy in that CNN poll had 31% job approval,
00:11:55
that is atrocious. That is a five alarm fire level number because one, it's way
00:12:03
below like the norm for job approval these days hovers around 40%. You start getting into the 30s and that's scary
00:12:10
land. you get into the low30s and that is like terminal. Um, and it for it to be on the economy which you know there
00:12:17
have been other issues where he is job approval has fluctuated big time and people said oh I don't trust him on this
00:12:23
X Y or Z. The economy was always a thing. Oh, he's the apprentice guy. Oh, he's the business guy. And so for his
00:12:28
job approval to be that low on the economy, if that does not turn around, that suggests to me a very troubling
00:12:36
midterm for Republicans with that. recently on how Gen Z voters are feeling about the economy. What did you find
00:12:43
there? >> Give us some. >> So Gen Z voters have uh the worst view of the economy and even in just the last
00:12:50
month it has plummeted precipitously. So when I say, you know, on the foreign policy stuff that Donald Trump mostly
00:12:57
has the MAGA movement, there is a divide within the Republican party and it is older voters versus Gen Z. And so it is
00:13:04
Gen Z Republicans in addition to Gen Zers who are not Republicans who are increasingly saying like this economy
00:13:10
isn't working for me. And whether it's a combination of they are approaching
00:13:15
graduation and the job market's not what they want, whether they feel like the
00:13:18
affordability crisis is keeping home ownership and you know a whole variety of sort of life aspirations out of reach
00:13:26
um or just a sense that there's not as much opportunity um for them to build
00:13:30
the kind of career they want. I did some focus groups for the New York Times uh very recently where we talked to Gen Z
00:13:38
white collar job seekers and it was I mean it was heart it was like unsurprising but also just heartbreaking
00:13:45
to hear these young people talk about what it is like to try to get a job in a moment
00:13:51
when they for some of them they went to college because they were told you need this credential now they've got debt and
00:13:58
they still send out a 100 applications and they get five people to call them back of which three then proceed to
00:14:04
ghost them and the other one the other two are AI. Yeah, exactly. >> Um and so it was just it it felt it
00:14:12
there was a bleakness to it that was was disputing because normally when I talk to Gen Z folks like there's very much a
00:14:21
yeah everything's terrible but like our generation is going to fix it. And it it
00:14:24
almost feels like right now, do people feel like they have any sense of control or ability to shape the future or is it
00:14:32
just like bigger, more powerful stuff at play that they won't be able to put
00:14:35
their heads down? >> And they blame Trump for this, correct? Or >> in our focus group, I in our focus
00:14:42
group, it was actually a more Demle leaning group. I don't know chicken or the egg. Is that because that's more of
00:14:48
who was looking for jobs or what have you? Um, and we really didn't talk too
00:14:53
much about Trump himself. Um, >> right. But it's a feeling and he's
00:14:56
standing at the top. Right. That's my less that they say I can't get a job and
00:15:00
it's Donald Trump's fault and it's more I can't get a job. It feels like society
00:15:04
has been moving in a bad direction for a while and I don't know like who's
00:15:08
sending the lifeboats like who's coming to rescue us? I don't know that anybody's in the prime position. When
00:15:13
you think about that his outbursts, how much do they matter anymore? like the one this weekend. Of course, once again,
00:15:20
and I don't mean to say the word pearl clutching, but everyone's like, "Oh, can
00:15:22
you believe he said it?" I'm like, "Yes, he seems cognitively disabled to me. I
00:15:26
don't I'm not a doctor, but he's as crazy as ever, and he's not. That's not
00:15:29
changed." Does that matter when he does these sort of outbursts or are they just
00:15:34
noise now with him with voters? >> Well, there's this weird disconnect
00:15:37
where if you ask voters what they think about things like that, they tell you they don't like them. And yet I if if
00:15:45
market signals are to be believed, more politicians seem to be leaning into that
00:15:50
kind of behavior, a sort of like if you can't beat them, join them type approach. So like I would think if you
00:15:57
if you just take people at their word, they want candidates who compromise and candidates who behave in a manner that
00:16:03
is befitting the office and all of those different things. and then who shows up
00:16:08
and votes in a primary like puts people in who have un unbelievable flaws in in any number of ways. So I think you're
00:16:16
right and I don't think it's pearl clutching or or if it is like I'm I'm
00:16:19
I'm pearl clutching a little bit. Not that I'm surprised but that I'm
00:16:23
disappointed uh that we now have this >> horseness where >> like the president of the United States
00:16:31
is tweeting fbombs. I don't love that. That's like maybe that's just me as a
00:16:36
small C conservative like I'm I'm not interested. No thank you. >> Um
00:16:40
>> but the reality is that voters say they don't want it and then this is who gets
00:16:44
elected. And whether it's they're voting for him in spite of it or because of it.
00:16:48
Like I think there's some people it's because of it. They like that he doesn't
00:16:51
sound like somebody straight out of central casting. Um, >> yeah. >> Yeah.
00:16:57
>> But I do wonder if there will be a backlash at some point. If Americans
00:16:59
start to want straight out of Central casting sound like the old man at the my mom's uh senior living facility who you
00:17:06
really need you go around to get off the elevator for. Um and and initially you're like and then you're like shut
00:17:12
the [ __ ] up daddy grandpa. Anyway, um it's a really interesting thing because
00:17:17
I think just like with Iran or anything else it's a background noise that's
00:17:20
disconcerting right a direct thing. It's not soothing. It's not This is not America does not feel
00:17:28
like the spa music is on. Let's put it that way. Especially with these young
00:17:32
voters that you're seeing it. If you had to pick one polling thing that you went,
00:17:36
"Oh my goodness sakes, one upside or downside. What is there something that
00:17:42
stuck out from you recently in your polling?" Well, I think it is about Gen
00:17:46
Z and the economy and it is when we've been asking people, do you think the economy is um headed in the right
00:17:53
direction or the wrong direction? We've been asking them this for years. People
00:17:57
generally have been saying it's been headed in the wrong direction and you can break it out by generation. And for
00:18:02
the most part, this has not been something where like older voters think everything is great and younger voters
00:18:07
think it's terrible. Like everybody's kind of been aligned about where things
00:18:10
are at. But in just the last month in our March data, the Gen Z respondents, I mean, it fell off a cliff in terms of
00:18:18
their feelings about the economy. And the reason why that sticks out is one, it's a it's breaking of a big trend that
00:18:23
we'd had for a long time of kind of everybody feels like the economy is not doing great. Um, but just for to see
00:18:30
them get so much more depressed in just a month was was really jarring. But number two, think about the kind of
00:18:37
coalition that Republicans put together that have enabled them to have sort of better thanex expected elections. It's
00:18:44
in part because they they tried to repair the damage that had been done with younger voters. And if you are
00:18:51
presiding over an economy where Jenz is feeling like this, like that's it. The
00:18:56
only thing you have going for you is the fact that Jenz finds Democrats to be uninspiring at the moment. Um, that's
00:19:01
not a great thing to hang your hat on. So to me it's it is that Jenzi economic
00:19:06
number more so than anything specific about foreign >> it's an opportunity for Democrats
00:19:10
presumably correct is an opportunity >> it is it is an opportunity for Democrats
00:19:14
but I think the thing that Democrats are getting wrong is like that they they know that affordability is the thing on
00:19:20
everybody's minds and so they know to like mouth the words yes we care about
00:19:24
cost of living and that may be enough if things are bad enough you can just say I'm not the other guy and that that
00:19:30
could be adequate but I still think think that voters also in the surveys that I see harbor some skepticism about
00:19:37
what Democrats would do if given the reigns again. Like, okay, we don't love
00:19:41
what Trump's doing, but we still don't love the way Biden handled this either.
00:19:45
So, what's your plan? Is your plan to open up the spigot of money and subsidize everything to pretend like it
00:19:50
goes away, but that drives inflation? Like, we don't want that either. >> Run the deficit.
00:19:54
>> Yeah. I don't I don't think that fresh ideas that actually solve people's
00:20:00
problems. Incredible. Well, that's what they're supposed to do. Okay, Kristen,
00:20:04
let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about a potential
00:20:07
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That's van.com/pivot. vanta.com/pivot. This episode is sponsored by Better Health. Tax day is just around the
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00:22:19
That's betterhp.com/pivot. Christine, we're back. Pam Bondi and Christy No may have just been the
00:22:26
beginning. A Trump cabinet shakeup is reportedly in the works, though the president is denying it, which means
00:22:31
it's happening. The White House official told Reuters to expect a targeted churn
00:22:35
rather than a big uh dramatic reset, which this feels like a corporation. Some of the names potentially on the
00:22:42
chopping block. Director of National Intelligence Telsey Gabbard, FBI Director Cash Patel, Commerce Secretary
00:22:47
Howard Lutnik, uh, Labor Secretary Lori uh, Derimer. As for Bondi's replacement,
00:22:53
her deputy and Trump's former attorney Todd Blanch is currently serving as acting AG and he's already trying to
00:22:58
distance the DOJ from the Epstein files, telling Fox last week that all the files
00:23:02
have been released. talk a little bit about what's happening here in terms of
00:23:07
um this and does this create more of a a voter dissatisfaction or is it I mean this happens in every administration
00:23:15
where there's a shakeup kind of thing. It's not a and the last Trump administration was was like a manic
00:23:21
episode of of the apprentice of course and people went in and out quite a lot. This is this is these people have had
00:23:27
some staying power and they're 100% less competent. So talk a little bit about
00:23:31
that. I think a shakeup can be a very good thing, especially if like let's take Christy. This is a great example of
00:23:39
an issue immigration was an issue where Republicans and Donald Trump had a massive advantage that they haven't
00:23:46
always had, but there was a real willingness to like America had moved to the right on these issues and said do
00:23:52
what you got to do to get the border secure. and the way in which this was handled
00:23:58
culminating in I mean embarrassment is is probably too light a way to frame it but the events of the last couple of
00:24:04
months in terms of of ICE specifically >> um >> just this week with with a service
00:24:10
member's wife being grabbed off a base >> I I just feel like for Donald Trump you
00:24:16
you can't your political coalition can't survive if you don't have people coming
00:24:21
to you going well at least he knows what to do about the border at least he knows
00:24:24
how to handle this issue It's kind of a core piece of glue that holds different
00:24:28
pieces of his coalition together. And if you lose that, what do you have? So by being able to sort of say, okay, I'm
00:24:35
cutting this person. This person has been an embarrassment to me and look, my numbers on this issue have fallen.
00:24:41
It is good that he is at least not taking the position of like I'm just going to I'm going to circle the wagons
00:24:49
and we're going to say that everything's fine and it's just the liberal media
00:24:52
that's being mean. So I think to some level these shakeups are what Donald Trump's voters expect from him,
00:25:00
especially those folks who are not diehard Republicans, but instead gravitated to him for some combination
00:25:07
of the economy and immigration and vibes that like being able to show yes, I want
00:25:14
new people running the show. I have been unsatisfied with what they've been doing.
00:25:18
>> Well, his brand started with that. You're fine. >> Exactly. Exactly. So, I don't know what
00:25:22
that means about who would be next. I mean, I think about some of the names that were on your list, and some of them
00:25:27
have done more that has publicly brought strife to the White House than others. And I think that's probably the thing
00:25:35
that is animating this more. Like, I don't know to what extent his decision to to bid farewell to Christine Gnome.
00:25:42
Was it about how ICE was handling the issue of immigration or was it how she handled hearings and some of these
00:25:48
embarrassing stories about like you know the the planes and god knows what else?
00:25:54
>> Um yeah >> but so that that's sort of how I >> honestly husband's the coolest thing
00:25:58
about her but go ahead. All of which is to say I think if you want to know like where the change would
00:26:04
come next I think the most important criteria is likely who who is reflecting well on this White House not who has you
00:26:12
know something that's like got the beltway in a stir but it's not really
00:26:16
reflecting badly on him >> right so it has to be who who does break through of these cabinet members with
00:26:22
the voters the ones that you're polling >> so I honestly think that if you asked
00:26:26
voters which member of the cabinet is the most supportive of tariffs. I do not think very many would be able to name
00:26:34
Howard Lutnik. Um so that again I'm I am not a Trump Kremlinologist but to me it
00:26:41
does not seem as though there's anything on the outside that would be driving
00:26:44
that in quite the same way as say cash Patel at the FBI drinking with the hockey team or you know any number of
00:26:52
cases that the FBI has been handling and questions about the effectiveness of of
00:26:57
that. Um, so again, don't know which way he would go first, but to me that seems
00:27:01
to be the most important variable or most obvious. >> Are you looking like an idiot publicly
00:27:06
to a wide range of people? In other words, like a lot of people as opposed to say the labor secretary who's just
00:27:12
seems naughty uh in a really bad way kind of thing because we've had naughty
00:27:16
cabinet members for ever from what I can glean and stuff. But it but it doesn't
00:27:21
break through with voters. more like Cash Patel drink down in the beer is a real bad visual for example.
00:27:27
>> Well, and you know how Donald Trump feels about visuals like that. That's
00:27:31
really really really important. The public image, do you look the part? Um and if you begin to fail on those
00:27:37
dimensions, that's often when it's it's time for he's looking for somebody
00:27:41
different. >> So is that is that a good thing? As you say, a shakeup isn't a bad thing, right?
00:27:45
It shows you're you know you know look busy, Jesus is coming kind of thing like
00:27:49
that kind of thing. >> Well, yeah. I think es especially because of what you said about his brand
00:27:55
as the apprentice guy. I think the idea that you I mean remember like think about what he did with Doge when he
00:28:02
first came into office. He just went through and slashed and burned. So we're
00:28:05
going to fire a whole bunch of people. I mean that is >> his brand >> which which it should not just be
00:28:10
isolated to lower runs if you're really going to live through uh you know live
00:28:15
up to it and and press through with it. Um, it it it almost uniquely is a probably a good thing for Trump in a way
00:28:24
that it might not even be for other administrations, >> right? No, his brand is firing. His
00:28:27
brand is getting rid of incompetence and now he has he keeps them and you're
00:28:31
like, "Oh my god, you're keeping the incompetence that I would agree having
00:28:34
watched all those shows." >> And then the last question is for all of
00:28:38
this, whether it's court appointments or cabinet appointments, what do you think
00:28:41
the United States Senate is likely to look like after November? And how likely is it that you think you will be able to
00:28:47
get someone confirmed through a Senate that potentially has more Democrats in it than it does today? I mean, those are
00:28:53
things that I think are probably also weighing on the minds of the Susie Wilds of the world who are are keeping track
00:28:58
of that. >> Yeah, the incompetence might have to stay. So, one of the things that's
00:29:02
interesting uh also happening is the federal government is suing multiple states over attempts to ban betting on
00:29:08
Kouchy and other platforms. Now, let's be clear. Donald Trump's children are
00:29:12
part of this um or on the boards or advisers to both Poly Market and Kelshi. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
00:29:19
is arguing that it has the sole authority that that's what they're using
00:29:22
to regulate these predictions markets. Meanwhile, Poly Market is apologizing after users were allowed to bet on the
00:29:28
fate of the US pilots whose jet was downed in Iran. Pretty losome, saying it did not meet their integrity standards.
00:29:34
Incredible. Both Poly Market and Calier are now rolling out campaigns to attract
00:29:38
female users framing prediction markets as another way to be a hashgirl boss which by the way girl boss is over kids
00:29:44
boys. We've been talking a lot about these markets here on Pivot and you and
00:29:48
I have talked about it and so I want to play something Scott said a few weeks ago and get your thoughts. Let's listen.
00:29:52
>> The speculative markets, speculation markets or prediction markets have
00:29:55
essentially put pollsters and to a certain extent investment banking analysts out of work because guess what?
00:30:01
They're much >> kind of I I would push back on that. I just met with a bunch of pollsters on
00:30:04
this topic, but go ahead. >> In my opinion, they're done. They if you look at if you look at if you look at
00:30:08
the prediction markets record versus pollsters in the last election, the prediction markets kicked their ass.
00:30:15
>> All right, Pollster, what's your response? I I was trying to defend you
00:30:19
there. Um, talk about about what's happening with them and your thoughts on it and what you like and don't like
00:30:24
about them and and um just so you know, uh there's another possible nail in the
00:30:29
coffin for polling. There's now something called silicon sampling that uses AI models to simulate simulate
00:30:34
survey responses, not real people. Um, talk a little bit what's happening here
00:30:38
in the polling market. >> Sure. So, I have a lot of thoughts on both of these. First, to Scott's point,
00:30:43
I I do not think that prediction markets are going to put polling out of business. One, because 99% of what
00:30:50
pollsters do is not polling that tries to track who is going to win an election. Like I know that's the most
00:30:57
public thing that people see from our industry, but 99% of it is message testing, strategy, model building, the
00:31:05
sorts of things for which being within margin of error, meaning your result is within three points in either direction.
00:31:12
Like that's that's okay. That's sort of understood. >> Give me an example. Just make it up.
00:31:16
Just like you pull what? >> So I I can tell you about the polling we've done on I've done some polling on
00:31:21
prediction markets. um where you know I'm asking to what extent are people using them? What are they using them
00:31:28
for? And those are the kinds of things that are valuable for somebody who might be trying to decide do I invest in one
00:31:35
of these companies like if I'm going to regulate them, what sort of regulatory
00:31:39
approach should I take? Uh it's the sort of thing where like I'll give you an
00:31:43
example. In our poll, we found about onethird of people either bet on prediction markets, that's not a
00:31:49
majority of them, or like use the data like they either they tune into it just for entertainment purposes or what have
00:31:55
you. So, if my poll shows 36% of people fall into that category, the real number, assuming that I've done my
00:32:02
survey right, the real number could be a few points off in either direction, and
00:32:06
that's not the end of the world. It still means my analysis is still useful directionally. It's telling us something
00:32:12
interesting about thing where things are going. I think this focus so exclusively
00:32:17
on polling as a like crystal ball to tell me if an election is going to get won won by candidate A or candidate B
00:32:24
just sort of misunderstands our industry. But the second thing is what is causing these prediction markets to
00:32:30
give the predictions they are. So, think about there was a a a man um I think he
00:32:34
was based in France who placed a huge bet in the last election that Donald Trump was going to win and afterwards,
00:32:41
you know, he he makes this like six figure sum off of his bet and that's all
00:32:45
great. And they ask him, you know, how'd you do it? And he said, "Oh, I
00:32:48
commissioned a poll." Um the polls are still an input to what these prediction
00:32:54
markets are doing. In a world without polls, your prediction market is running on vibes and fundraising numbers, which
00:33:01
are fine, but polls are an extremely they are a loadbearing pillar in what people think about what's going to
00:33:07
happen in an election. >> So So predictions would be a trailing indicator or what how do you look at
00:33:12
that? >> Yes. So I I think that in general, well, I I think when it comes to election
00:33:17
results, they don't have to be a trailing indicator, but I think that polls are an input. There are they are
00:33:24
not the only input. So other things can change, right? My poll can say that so and so is going to win the primary in
00:33:29
Texas, but all of a sudden some new news story could break that shows that Ken Paxton or John Cornin did something, you
00:33:36
know, that could upend the race. Who knows? >> It's usually Paxton >> and then the prediction market would be
00:33:42
the leading indicator ahead of when the poll is going to capture that. Um, but you still need the poll involved. And
00:33:49
that's also what I think about this whole synthetic respondents, AI respondents. You know, nowadays you're
00:33:54
seeing more people. >> Yeah. And and there were some attempts to do this in the 2024 election that I
00:34:00
think were actually less accurate than >> Explain what people what it is. You use
00:34:04
AI model. Explain for people who don't understand. >> Yeah. So, if you've ever used one of
00:34:07
these models, whether it's your chat GPT or your Claude, and you can like train
00:34:13
Claude or Chat GPT or whoever to kind of learn a certain persona, imagine that you've then trained a thousand different
00:34:21
personas that kind of look like a real voter. Okay, I've trained one persona to
00:34:27
be a 40-year-old woman living in Orlando, Florida, and she's a moderate Republican. And now I've got another bot
00:34:33
that is trained to be a conservative Democrat, and he lives in rural Pennsylvania. And and then basically,
00:34:40
you just ask those thousand AI personalities to tell you, are you voting for a Republican or a Democrat?
00:34:47
And then you take those results and you say, "Hey, look, I did a poll. I did a
00:34:50
poll of a thousand AI people who represent real voters, >> right? >> Um,
00:34:58
>> and I just think presenting that as a poll is disingenuous. I think you can
00:35:02
present it as a modeled estimate. Like I think there's lots of things you can
00:35:06
present it as. >> Do you use model that like use AI? How do you use it in >> post? So we the way we use AI, you can
00:35:13
use AI to help you know with programming tasks. It's enormously helpful. You can
00:35:19
use AI to help you analyze data when it comes back. Like the old school way of analyzing polling data is you do a
00:35:26
survey and you get back cross tabs that is this like 500page PDF with a ton of numbers on each page and you as the
00:35:33
pollster are sifting through looking for stuff that's that's meaningful. The fact
00:35:37
that you can feed that in and have AI tell you, hey, here are the top 10 most interesting things in that poll. Eight
00:35:43
out of 10 are going to be pretty good. one out of the 10 will be right but not really that important and then one will
00:35:49
be like completely wrong and so you still have to as the pollster exercise your judgment go through go through your
00:35:55
own data uh and know but like there are useful applications of AI in polling but
00:36:00
ultimately if you think about those synthetic personas what's training that synthetic 40-year-old suburban mom who
00:36:09
lives in Orlando on how she ought to respond a poll it's probably a poll that
00:36:15
was done to so all of this whether it's prediction markets or these synthetic AI
00:36:21
samples all of them at their root have real polling as an input and it's like a
00:36:28
game of telephone and they're just like the next piece in the line and you can
00:36:32
add other useful inputs that might give them some advantages but they're still
00:36:36
not a replacement for polling they are just a different application of polling >> so what when you say that when the
00:36:43
federal government is saying commodity I think futures trading should be regulating them. They're not regulating
00:36:48
them. Is it fair? Is it sort of like It reminds me a little bit of your like commerce people, retail people who are
00:36:55
offline having to fight with online. They had distinct advantages here. They can they can do whatever these people to
00:37:01
grow large. What do you imagine? How who should be states are rushing in because
00:37:06
they have long long regulated gambling. Every state does has its different gambling laws and that's not something
00:37:12
the federal government ever did. So is it like gambling from your perspective or how should they be regulated when you
00:37:18
think about it given presumably you're not that regulated but you you have a
00:37:22
set of standards that you're working around. I I think the big challenge is how do you balance the value that a
00:37:29
prediction market can provide to society beyond it's just entertainment, right?
00:37:35
like what is the what is the value beyond entertainment of I'm betting on who's going to win the Super Bowl like
00:37:40
and so we have to decide do we think that's an acceptable form of entertainment but the the the promise of
00:37:45
prediction markets is theoretically that you can also surface new information about things that have not yet happened
00:37:53
that might be valuable for the public to know the question is then like when does
00:37:58
that cross into insider trading like for me I feel I've never bet on a prediction
00:38:05
market because I would feel uncomfortable about like I come out of the field with a survey. I then know
00:38:10
what's happening in the Texas primary and therefore I can know hm I think candidate X Y or Z is probably up and if
00:38:17
I really trust my data why don't I put a couple thousand bucks on on this bet and
00:38:21
I just don't feel right about that. I it something about it feels like insider
00:38:26
trading and I think that's where it's and I don't know what the >> you're just having more insight, right?
00:38:32
That's kind of an interesting example. You have some in is that insider or is
00:38:35
that was your own data? >> I I don't I think you're right that that's not insider trading in the way
00:38:40
that but it is like it is non-public information that I would be using to benefit. It's not the same as being an
00:38:48
insider at a company where there are very specialized strict rules around that. But I think it's that that
00:38:54
muddying of the waters, right? And so you've been seeing this too with some of
00:38:58
these markets that have had bets around things like will the United States do military operation X and all of the
00:39:05
sudden right before it happens, you see somebody bets like $300,000 sitting next
00:39:11
to Trump in the White House and they just heard it, right? >> And like and so I do think that that
00:39:15
that's that raises some real questions. If we're going to have rules around
00:39:18
insider trading, when does that start to bleed over into what is or is not allowable conduct in terms of prediction
00:39:25
markets? >> Have they hurt themselves? You know, but sometimes it's not insider. Like, it
00:39:30
sounds crazy, but when Warner Brothers was $7 and that all the bidding started, I'm like, these rich people will pay
00:39:36
anything. And so, I bought 10 shares cuz I was like, and it was only 10 cuz I was
00:39:40
like, I think they're dumb, stupid money, so they're going to overpay. And
00:39:44
I just and I took myself out for a nice dinner because I was right. And that was
00:39:48
information I had, but anyone could have figured it out. Dumb, stupid money, for
00:39:52
example. And thank you for the dinner, Allison's. I appreciate it. When you have these things doing this, when
00:39:57
they're putting in this sort of they kind of fud muddy the line. There's also
00:40:02
these betting on heinous things, right, which makes it feel like gambling. And then attracting female users is a
00:40:10
problem. They've got a bad reputation from the get-go, including attracting the attention of regulators, right? Like
00:40:16
in terms of their bad behaviors. Yeah. So, when when I look at the polling I've
00:40:20
done on this, and again, in disclosure, I did polling uh for um an organiz It's
00:40:25
all it's all publicly available, but sort of an entity that like I think invests in uh some of these prediction
00:40:31
markets. And in general, just a lot of people don't know that much about them.
00:40:35
like they're pretty split on whether it's good or bad, but everybody's got an
00:40:40
attit an an attitude about it. Everybody has like an opinion of some sort. But when we ask about prediction markets,
00:40:45
like half of Americans have no idea how they feel about it. Um, most have not heard anything in the news about a
00:40:52
prediction market in the last 12 months. So, there is a real risk and real opportunity for that industry. And it's
00:40:58
why they're trying to get out ahead of it and say, "Hey, right now, like in my
00:41:01
data, it showed it too. if it's if you are male, if you are under the age of
00:41:05
50, if you are higher educated, higher income, like you are the most likely to know about prediction markets and be
00:41:10
interested in them and think they're a good thing. Um, and so they're trying to
00:41:14
say, okay, we've got to tell our story or someone else is going to tell our story. And that's why you're seeing
00:41:20
efforts to try to expand beyond. >> So they've got an opportunity despite
00:41:24
all the bad the bad press. But it seems like the bad press keeps piling on this US pilots jet thing. I thought, "Oh my
00:41:31
god, I think >> this is the for, you know, for any for a platform that has control over what
00:41:38
markets can be made and and not made, you know, having that judgment of what where's the upside? is is the upside in
00:41:46
ma max maximizing the sorts of things people can bet on and not restricting it too tightly knowing that we're going to
00:41:52
have a couple of these that are like cringe cringeworthy versus more tightly regulating it sort of playing it safer
00:42:00
>> you have higher upside in terms of your favorability but >> you then as a platform are in that role
00:42:07
that you will recall the social media companies did not want to be in when it came to like deciding where's the
00:42:11
boundaries of political speech How do you decide what constitutes a market that is out of bounds? Like you don't
00:42:19
want to be business >> did better by looking safer, right? Like right now from the polling, do you think
00:42:25
that doing what anything goes is a particularly good way to do it? >> No. And I I think there there is a
00:42:31
significant difference between people's comfort level with prediction markets as
00:42:36
a sort of adjacent to the sorts of betting and chance things that they know. But it's it's slightly better than
00:42:46
just chance because you can use your own judgment to say, "Okay, I think X, Y,
00:42:49
and Z is going to happen." You can use your own smarts toward it accordingly. I
00:42:53
think that's why it could have a slightly better it it could wind up with people liking it more than they like
00:43:00
something like sports betting where you're just like I hope this team wins. I like them. Um but there are real
00:43:05
downsides if you have people creating these horrible or unsavory markets where it feels like you've just turned
00:43:10
something very serious into [ __ ] fighting. >> That's what it feels like for like in a
00:43:16
[ __ ] fighting mode. Like I don't mind a little bit of a boxing match, but I
00:43:21
don't really want to watch animals rip each other apart, right? Either like some people do, but it sort of feels it
00:43:27
has that sort of stink to it. Um, let me last question. You know, Scott is absolutely saying your your business is
00:43:33
finished. Um, you're out of work because of them. How give one more answer to
00:43:38
Scott Galley, please. the political polling industry is going to be fine because when we are in moments of deep
00:43:46
uncertainty, that is the moment when people, companies, trade associations, you name
00:43:53
it, people are the most hungry to know what the heck is everybody thinking, where is this all headed? And with the
00:44:00
understanding that polling is not the only or perfect way to get a read on that, but is a as I described it like a
00:44:06
loadbearing pillar. It's a really important input. I mean, when the world is in a moment of turmoil or dramatic
00:44:15
change, that is when people want this data more than ever. And where something that is
00:44:21
>> trained on polling data, but kind of off and not quite there >> is not going to be
00:44:29
as as much as real polling is imperfect, it's still the real thing. >> Yeah. I always am like I always Scott,
00:44:34
I'm always like, "What's in there? Who's doing it? Who's doing the bedding? I
00:44:37
don't know who they are, right? Like it could be a bunch of It probably is a
00:44:40
bunch of white bro millennials. That's who and I don't that's their opinion,
00:44:44
not everybody's opinion. That's my thing. And especially if there's not a
00:44:47
lot of women in there, there's not a lot of different economic groups. You don't
00:44:52
get a really particularly good sample. That's my feeling. When when we get closer to the election, the safest and
00:44:57
healthiest way to consume polling data is just take it and throw it in the average. Don't panic about anyone
00:45:04
individual poll. Everything's going to be all right. No, thank you. >> Well, I don't know about the last part.
00:45:09
>> I don't know about the last part. Anyway, uh you you crazy bastards. You
00:45:14
know, like I say, every accusation is a confession. Uh anyway, uh let's go on a
00:45:19
quick break. When we come back, Open AI gets into podcasts. >> Support for the show comes from Upwork.
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talent ready to help grow your business. That's upw.com. upwork.com. Christian, we're back with more news.
00:46:24
You just sort of talked about this, the idea of where you get your narrative and
00:46:28
information from. It has to be good and wide. So, OpenA has acquired the tech news podcast TBPN. The online talk show
00:46:35
focuses by the minute analysis of tech news and interviews with top tech leaders. TPBN averages 70,000 viewers
00:46:41
per episode across everything. And let me just say they are tiny compared to Pivot and other things. Tiny, tiny,
00:46:48
tiny. That said, it's become popular among a certain group of Silicon Valley
00:46:51
power players who go on it because they want to be licked up and down all day. Um, oh, I'm sorry, boys. Is that Did I
00:46:57
say that too wrong? Okay. Sometimes you're spiky and fun, but really it's
00:47:01
pretty much a up to me PR. Um, OpenAI says the show will stay editorially independent, which we do not believe.
00:47:07
Um, talk about this idea of buying narratives when you when you're thinking about it because, you know, a lot of
00:47:12
people want to, you know, you do polling so you have better narratives and craft
00:47:16
messages. That's one of the things you do for people is tell them how to craft
00:47:20
their messages. talk a little bit about this effort and you know that's in the
00:47:24
backdrop of um of many company many tech companies trying to buy into uh into uh
00:47:30
various things like Paramount etc. So what this reminds me of is there's actually a a piece out in today's which
00:47:38
I guess the day we're taping this uh New York Times David Pluff who I think is
00:47:43
very like still one of the smartest minds on the Democratic >> love this piece please. Uh it was it was
00:47:48
yeah this piece is essentially saying that everything is content creation now that if you are running for office,
00:47:55
>> if you are engaged in politics, the most important thing you need to be doing is
00:48:00
creating content. That if you are relying on anybody else to get your message out but you, you are foolish. um
00:48:06
and that you need to essentially have a studio within your campaign headquarters
00:48:11
where you are just non-stop producing content because everything now is is that uh I think that's really smart. Um
00:48:18
you know I think about that in terms of like look at the media properties in the
00:48:22
political space that are really like thriving and doing exciting stuff now the like the pucks and the punch bowls
00:48:28
and all of that. I mean they're very focused on like we are constantly creating content. We're finding a
00:48:32
million new channels to do it. Sometimes it's in person events, sometimes it's
00:48:35
digital, but it it is a like always on kind of approach. And I think companies realizing this uh is probably smart.
00:48:45
Although there's a there's a a flip side to this, which is, >> you know, we've we've been going through
00:48:51
a moment in the last few years where it feels like, you know, everybody everybody's got a new podcast, Cara. You
00:48:56
know, everybody's like, "Ah, I'm going to create content. If you build it, they
00:48:59
will come." And that's not true at all. Lots of people can build podcasts that
00:49:03
or you know create content that sort of goes out into the ether to die. Yeah. And especially if it doesn't feel
00:49:10
authentic, if it feels driven by a corporate narrative, it it starts to lose some of what might make content
00:49:18
>> great otherwise. So like I imagine there are a bunch of candidates who could take
00:49:21
pluff at at his word and start doing what he says and would produce terrible content.
00:49:25
>> Yes. Good and genuine. Yeah, you're right 100%. Yeah. So he that was a
00:49:29
really interesting piece and I really I like David and it was absolutely true. Although it's kind of like no [ __ ]
00:49:34
Sherlock. I was like what? You're kidding. The content's important. >> No, but see you you and I think like oh
00:49:39
yeah no kidding. But it it is truly this idea that politics is now about being always on media messaging non-stop. That
00:49:48
is actually something that is >> not which is important to a lot of people. Trump has proven that for many
00:49:54
years. Obviously, now it's getting the the show's getting a little old in the
00:49:58
tooth right now and kind of crazy, but that's all right. It's a little like
00:50:01
network at the very end. Um, when Howard had some problems. Um, but you know, you
00:50:06
see AOC did it from the get-go, was very genuine to herself and she's obviously
00:50:11
talking her own book, but it's very effective. Same thing with Mom Donnie who's been very good and he's continuing
00:50:16
to govern that way. If you notice all his really interesting and they're good,
00:50:21
they're good. They're fun and they're they're creative. Um you don't have to
00:50:24
agree with them to not say, "Wow, look at that. That's really well done." Um
00:50:28
especially during snowstorm, he did a couple of good ones that were just sort of it wasn't political. It was just
00:50:32
here's how we're doing it and they were funny and quirky. His whole thing, there
00:50:36
was one he did the smile where he has that weird smile and they made his whole staff made fun of his smile and I
00:50:42
thought that was it was based on the movie Smile which was a horror movie which was funny. It's just he's very on
00:50:47
top of things and so are a lot of by the way Republicans. Some Republicans do a good job at it. Not not as many, but
00:50:53
Trump certainly absolutely for many years has done a really good job. I think the problem with these things is
00:51:00
people don't realize tech has tried this a dozen times. Many years ago, Yahoo
00:51:04
tried to do a news product and that didn't work because they weren't doing
00:51:07
any original reporting or anything else. They were just mouththing stuff. Um, uh,
00:51:12
Andre Hordes famously had a blog and called me and said they were going to beat me at my own game. And I'm like,
00:51:17
good [ __ ] luck. First of all, media is hard and it doesn't make money. Sorry. Like you're you're entering a
00:51:22
really like like what are you doing? And it well didn't work. They've tried a
00:51:26
number of times that that particular group and you know it's always sort of failed. AOL did it a little bit like
00:51:32
around the edges tried to you know to create some and it just doesn't happen.
00:51:37
So I think one of the things is I get that you feel more comfortable in these settings where people are a little bit
00:51:44
like your giant brain is so smart. Tell me how that works. And I think that has value by the way you know it's startup
00:51:51
people are always interested in how did I do that right how did you do that and they don't want any push back they just
00:51:57
want to hear your techniques whatever even if it's PR but eventually it's not
00:52:01
truthful right of like the real struggles companies have and when you have a little friction with a reporter
00:52:07
it does create really interesting conversations and the only person I would look to would be Apple Steve Jobs
00:52:13
he kept coming back to be interviewed by me even though I know I irritated him right? Because it was an interesting
00:52:18
conversation and it would help him. It clarified things. Um, we were fair with him at the same time. I don't think we
00:52:25
ever pulled any ridiculous, stupid, snarky moves. Um, but in a lot of ways, I feel responsible for this kind of
00:52:32
nonsense because they just don't want to talk to anyone they consider difficult
00:52:36
and would prefer to be. And I don't think that is the best outcome editorially. I just don't I just don't
00:52:41
think it becomes I think there'll be a backlash and they'll start talking to
00:52:45
actual reporters that are fair. That's my feeling, but I don't know. Maybe I'm
00:52:50
open. I don't really want to talk to them anymore anyway. So, it doesn't
00:52:53
matter in some level, but I don't know. We'll see. It's a small amount of money
00:52:57
to pay for possible good PR in a new fresh way. >> Is it a small amount of money? I feel
00:53:02
like the reporting was that it was not a small amount of money. Yeah, but for them it's a small amount of money and
00:53:07
they've said that essentially on the show is like that was a lot of money. We're taking it and running and that
00:53:12
will be the end of it I suspect. But it's glad it's glad they have people
00:53:15
telling them they're great. That's really good because they need that because you know money doesn't seem to
00:53:19
make them happy. >> Um in any case, we'll see. Do you see a lot of Are you impressed by a lot of
00:53:24
political um outfits? Give me give me things that you think are have done it well in the political space.
00:53:30
>> I will cross party. >> Well, yeah. So, I'll I'll cross party
00:53:34
lines and say that I I think that AOC is somebody who an example that I always give um of something that she did that
00:53:43
has just like lodged in my brain and I wish every politician would understand that this is the way the world works is
00:53:50
she appeared on um a skincare influencers platform. This was like two or three years ago. This wasn't this
00:53:57
isn't terribly recent, but she went on to talk about uh sunscreen regulation.
00:54:02
Like right now, if you try to buy sunscreen in the US, there are sunscreens that are better elsewhere in
00:54:07
the world, but you cannot get them here. They're not FDA approved. Um they're not
00:54:10
dangerous. Everything's fine with them. They just for whatever reason, you can't
00:54:13
get them here. And so she went on this skincare influencer show to talk a little bit about that specific issue.
00:54:18
And like, isn't it crazy that you can't get these good sunscreens here? which is
00:54:22
not an issue that is obviously right left coded or if anything it's almost more rightcoded. It's like hey the
00:54:28
government is regulating away your right to have this really good sunscreen. Um but she went somewhere where people who
00:54:34
are not necessarily going to tune in and watch her on MSNBC or MS now whatever we're calling it. Um you know that
00:54:41
that's not the audience she's going after. She's going after people who
00:54:44
might be much more loosely attached to the political process, but she's getting
00:54:48
herself in front of them on an issue that they care about with some credibility and that opens the door then
00:54:54
to say, "Hey, come follow me." Like, you may not follow members of Congress
00:54:58
because that may seem lame and horrible, but I am not as lame and horrible as the
00:55:01
rest of them, so please follow me. And you build that audience. And I think most politicians if you were like go on
00:55:08
a skincare influ I mean they're you wouldn't want that for most of them but
00:55:12
just whatever the equivalent of that is like you want to talk about emissions regulations like go on a car podcast I
00:55:20
just I think that most people in Washington are not thinking in that gear and that is where the future is going to
00:55:28
be won. It's not >> and also corporations too participating. I think Wendy's does a good job. I think
00:55:33
King Arthur Baking, you can you can name a dozen of them. Sometimes they can spin
00:55:37
out of control, but often it's a really interesting >> uh way to sort of genuinely explain
00:55:43
yourself to people in a as long as it's not cringe, right? In some fashion over
00:55:48
advertising. >> I 100% I I mean, if you're not out there, if you're not telling your story,
00:55:53
someone else is. So, it's important to go out there. It's important to be in
00:55:57
places where it's not just it's important to be in I think nonobvious places, but I also like the tension is
00:56:06
then you don't want to do stuff that's forced and feels cringeworthy. Um but
00:56:09
just letting letting the other side own the airspace or letting your opponents own the airspace is is not really as
00:56:16
much of a viable option. Yeah. very quickly. Um, obviously banks and advisers working on the SpaceX IPO
00:56:21
dealer being required to buy subscriptions to Grock Musk's terrible AI chatbot. Um, they they're going to do
00:56:27
it anyway because they'll do anything it takes. They'll take sure we'll buy your
00:56:30
shitty product for if you'll give us the banks. Um, he's also asked them to
00:56:34
advertise on X was less insistent on that request. Obviously, they're going to all do it. Uh, that I'm not surprised
00:56:40
by. But I'm just curious, have you done any polling on Elon now post, you know,
00:56:43
he's now going to be very wealthy again. once again more wealthy than he was
00:56:47
before. How where is his polling? Have you done much on on where he sits because he's about to enter the
00:56:53
political spectrum again quite significantly it looks like. I mean, I still think that he has residual
00:56:59
favorability from Republicans who I think have by and large forgotten his well I was going to say the very big
00:57:07
public falling out that he had with Trump that got very ugly very uh quickly. Um that that all but seems to
00:57:16
have been kind of memory hold at this point. Um but but there is still that lingering negativity from Democrats. It
00:57:24
may not be as acute. I mean, I I have not heard reports of like protests outside Tesla dealerships in the way
00:57:29
that you had about a year ago. So, it feels like the temperature has turned down, but it is not as though anybody
00:57:34
has like converted back to liking him or not liking him. Wherever you were a year
00:57:39
ago, you're probably still in about the same place. So, when when you're a
00:57:43
Republican getting money from him, it's worth it. Correct. Now, or is it a bad
00:57:47
thing? Because he lost in Wisconsin. He lost a lot of his presence tends to be a problem for some people. I think he
00:57:56
is not as much of a potent lightning rod as he was a year ago when we were in the
00:58:02
midst of Doge being in the news every single day, some new agency getting shut down or somebody getting fired or or
00:58:10
something happening that was causing >> causing some stir. you know, him showing
00:58:14
up in the White House, him in the White House with one of his kids, you know, like those we're that's not happening
00:58:18
anymore. And so I think him having less him be he is less of a lightning rod today than he was a year ago. So I I
00:58:26
think that would probably lessen any, you know, downside to having him, but he shouldn't act up again. Correct. Create
00:58:34
a >> as last time I was on your show, I said like less chainsaw, more Mars. And I
00:58:39
stick to it. I think to the extent that he has spent the last year doing less chainsaw and more Mars, I don't think
00:58:44
that it's necessarily won back anybody from the left, >> but I do think that the temperature has
00:58:48
been turned down around him to where he's a little less >> more Mars. That's what you got to do.
00:58:53
Build your [ __ ] rockets, I've said that over and I think you were absolutely right back then. All right,
00:58:58
Kristen, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails. Support for the show comes from Delete
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01:00:15
code pivot. Okay, Kristen, let's hear some wins and fails. You go first. All
01:00:20
right. Well, we're going to talk space. Um, and this is a mine is a win and a
01:00:23
fail combined. A win is that as you and I are recording probably right about uh now, Americans are flying around the
01:00:31
backside of the moon. That feels like the biggest possible win. The fact that these that the rocket took off and it
01:00:37
was fine and it wound up working is unbelievable. But the fail is the toilets do not seem to be staying in
01:00:44
operation on this. This is a subject of great interest to my daughters. Uh they are they are like really really really
01:00:52
trying to keep up on the what is the status of >> the toilets on this uh Artemis. I think
01:00:57
Orion might actually be the name of like the part that they are in. But uh so it's both a win and a fail.
01:01:03
>> I think NASA has shined itself up a little bit. It's always it's been sucked
01:01:06
away by Bezos and Musk, but I think NASA feels kind of cool. I think their social
01:01:10
media is excellent. I think Victor Victor the pilot is such a hunk like like all of them are are and and all the
01:01:18
the whole team are amazing. I think >> they have a great inspirational message.
01:01:23
I mean just every time you hear them talk and it doesn't feel like hyper media trained either. Again to what we
01:01:27
were talking about earlier with like it just feels like you found genuinely incredible people and are sending them
01:01:32
to do an incredible thing on behalf of humanity. >> Yeah, I agree. I think they they just
01:01:36
are doing flawless speaking of social media. Flawless social media. I I haven't seen one thing that I' The
01:01:41
pictures are beautiful. The the the enthusiasm again, it doesn't feel cooked
01:01:46
in some fashion. The fail is the continued sort of um I know you, like you said, I'm not
01:01:54
clutching my pearls, but come on. I think people are sick of this and I think there's going to be a significant
01:01:58
backlash to politicians that look, I think there's a real opportunity for people to be funny and nice and, you
01:02:05
know, sort of more open-minded rather than dunking dunking dunking. I I just have this I think what Trump is doing is
01:02:12
is a step too far. And he I can't even believe I'm saying that cuz I I'm never
01:02:16
that person who goes, "Oh, you're kidding. Can you believe what he said?"
01:02:19
I always believe what he says cuz I think he's like that. Um but I do think people are tiring of it. And I think
01:02:25
even though they're sloughing it off, they're not sloughing it there. You
01:02:28
know, gh that's him. I think there's more. It's like I'm tired of hearing
01:02:32
this now. And I think there's a real opportunity for politicians to make people feel better. like I know in
01:02:38
political life in general and not but and also not um do it in a stupid way where you just pretend it's not
01:02:45
happening like that kind of thing. So I do think that's been a real fail and I
01:02:49
do think it's pro it's a bigger problem than people think. That's one. My win is
01:02:53
the Netflix documentary Dynasty the Murdoch. Um it's about the Murdoch Empire. I found out stuff about Ruben
01:03:00
Murdoch that was fascinating. I thought it was incredibly Liz Garbas directed it. I thought it was a terrific
01:03:05
documentary. I learned a lot about this very I thought it was very fair to the family at the same time. Um sad to
01:03:13
watch, you know, this kind of fall apart and I'm endlessly fascinated by Rupert
01:03:17
Murdoch, but and you know, he's getting he's getting on in years and everything,
01:03:21
but I do think it was a really interesting documentary. Um and not just cuz I'm it although I think I'm
01:03:26
spectacular in it. No, I'm kidding. No, the people who are mostly who've done
01:03:30
all the reporting at the times um did an amazing job and so I recommend it. I recommend watching it. It's he's he's a
01:03:37
unique political figure as you know, but I learned a lot from the documentary. I
01:03:41
Have you seen it? >> I have not. >> I will say the last movie that I watched
01:03:45
that referenced Rubert Murdoch was I rewatched The Devil Wears Prada from 2006 in preparation for, you know, the
01:03:53
the rebirth, the two too devil, too furious that's coming up. Uh, and he he is mentioned there's a there's a scene
01:04:00
where uh it's it's when Meyer Street's character Miranda Priestley is sort of
01:04:06
her her husband is divorcing her and she says like Rupert Murdoch should cut me a
01:04:11
check for all the papers that I've sold for him like assuming that like she fuels you know all these gossip gossip
01:04:17
rag headlines and so any I haven't seen the movie you were talking about but I
01:04:20
did see Devil War's product. >> Yeah, it's it's a sing it's a series a
01:04:24
couple of episodes. It's really good. Uh, I I shouldn't say this, but I'm I'm
01:04:27
in the Devil's Produ just briefly. >> Shh. >> Oh, tell. >> Yeah, it's like I'm sure it's blinking.
01:04:37
You'll see it, but uh they did a lot of uh it was reported already and it the
01:04:41
reports were true. >> I'm I don't know if they've cut me, but I I'm there. I get to play myself a lot,
01:04:46
Kristen, besides uh in uh on billboards in Times Square. Uh but I actually, for some reason, I'm the go-to person now.
01:04:53
If they have AI in the plot, they bring in carousel. It's like Wolf Blitzer.
01:04:57
>> So, there is I have I have one funny story about this. Um, you know that
01:05:00
movie Edge of Tomorrow or it used to be called like or like Lived, Die I Repeat is what they rebranded. I'm obsessed
01:05:05
with this movie. >> Blunt and Tom Cruz. Fantastic movie. >> At the beginning there's a scene where
01:05:09
it's Jake Tapper interviewing and it's a panel where it's like Olivier Knox from
01:05:15
>> I think he was at the post at that time. Um, Kiki Mlan, Democratic strategist,
01:05:20
and then Tom Cruz is in the middle. But like that scene never happened. They edited him in and they edited Tom Cruz
01:05:26
on top of Ross Stout. >> Ah, perfect. I like it. I'm there for it. >> So, cuz I was I was watching the movie
01:05:34
and I was like, was like, who is the Republican that was on set that day that got edited out to be Tom Cruz? Was it
01:05:40
me? I don't think so. >> Oh, yeah. That would be harder. Wow. Okay. Good to know. I love that movie.
01:05:47
Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. and go to
01:05:51
nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for this show or call 855-51 pivot. Okay, that's the show. Again, thank you for
01:05:59
joining me today, Kristen. Everyone should watch her bowling. She also appears on in on CNN and she's does
01:06:05
wonderful stories in the pieces in the New York Times which I learn a lot from just she lets the voters speak and
01:06:12
actually it's really interesting to hear them because it's a little more um
01:06:16
complex and that's why it's great and that's important to understand the
01:06:19
complexity of all this. Anyway, uh, thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube
01:06:24
channel. We'll be back on Friday. Thank you, Kristen. Thank you, Karen. Thanks
01:06:28
for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at
01:06:33
nymag.com/pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and
01:06:39
business. Sam Alman, Pivot's not for sale. Sorry, so sorry.