00:00:00
It's sort of like the mobsters that turn on the top mobster at some point. You know, they always end up turning all
00:00:06
those people. Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisser
00:00:19
and it is 5:14 a.m. here at the Beverly Hills Hotel in Los Angeles. And I had on my calendar that it was supposed to be we were supposed to be doing this at 7 a.m. So, yeah,
00:00:29
if I'm even a little even a little slower than usual, you'll have to forgive me. No, I think you had a nice relaxing
00:00:36
weekend after Do you miss me? First of all, that's the key question. I don't miss you, but I'm not sick of
00:00:41
you. I I after being together for seven nights in seven cities, I thought I thought it was pretty pretty seamless.
00:00:47
Pretty good. I know. Wasn't it? I We had a good time. I had a good time. What were your favorite parts?
00:00:52
Oh, wow. All of it. I have to say everyone's like what's your favorite city? I'm like I kind of liked all of
00:00:58
them. I didn't dis I thought everyone was interesting that we had on stage. I don't think there was a dud amongst um I
00:01:05
thought they were the crowds. The f you know my favorite part the audiences. I got to say they were so enthusiastic.
00:01:11
Anyway, we've got a lot to get to today including Jeff Bezos's new AI startup and Peter Teal's Nvidia selloff. This is
00:01:18
really a lot of people selling off. But first, President Trump is urging House Republicans to back the measure to
00:01:23
release the Epstein files because, quote, "We have nothing to hide." The House is set to vote on it today. Trump
00:01:29
also continues to call Congresswoman U. Congresswoman uh Marjorie Taylor Green a traitor. He announced late last week he
00:01:36
was cutting ties with Greens, referring to her as a ranting lunatic. Green says she's been contacted by multiple private
00:01:41
security firms after receiving a hot bed of threats. She told CNN that she supports Trump and his administration,
00:01:47
but is not backing away from the Epstein files. Let's listen. I I believe the country deserves
00:01:52
transparency in these files and I I don't believe that that rich powerful people should be protected if they have if they have done anything wrong and and
00:02:04
so I'm standing with the women and I will continue to do my small part to get the files released. She also noted that she was sorry uh and it was seemed sincere for being such a toxic force in
00:02:18
political discourse which was uh it was a it was a flatout apology and it well well done and I know a lot of people are like let's not forgive her but I feel like you if you can't forgive the people who are saying they we're sorry I don't
00:02:30
know what you do. Um Epstein survivors released a powerful PSA on Sunday holding up a picture of their younger
00:02:36
selves from when they met Epstein. Very upsetting. It's time to bring the secrets out of the shadows. It's time to
00:02:42
shine a light into the darkness. They're encouraging House Republicans to vote to release the files, which it looks like it was going to do. I think Trump um uh did did that because he knew
00:03:03
he wasn't going to win. And then he can make an excuse. either two things are going online, which is that he's
00:03:09
scrubbed the files, or two, that he's going to say there's an investigation of Democrats going on in the files, so um
00:03:17
so that they can't release them. In any case, he didn't want to lose so explicitly. Also, the latest Epstein
00:03:23
distraction, the Amelia Heheart records were just released, as actor Christopher Maloney put it, "Unless she went missing
00:03:30
while on a flight to Epstein's island, no one gives a shit." I love that guy. So, any thoughts on this? This is a
00:03:36
really interesting and continually developing story. I just don't have a feel I just don't
00:03:42
what I've never understood is why we think unless the files are some partisan process where Trump appointees don't have access to them. I've always thought these things are going to be altered. I
00:03:53
don't this is a corrupt organiz you know his personal lawyer is a head of the DOJ
00:03:59
and an individual who's a sickopant and a total incompetent and just an acolyte is the head of the FBI these people at the end of the day have ownership I
00:04:10
guess it's is it because why would we believe that these things won't be altered when they well cuz that's a real I mean think at some point
00:04:22
I I think they to be thinking their own skins in the very end. They're not going to do anything for this guy. And it's
00:04:27
sort of like the mobsters that turn on the top mobster at some point. You know, they always end up turning all those
00:04:34
people if you've ever noticed. Yeah. And I I I just wouldn't put it past them. I think the crime here has
00:04:40
been so brazen. Um I what you know what I'm there was a couple times on Bill Mar
00:04:48
where I thought for the first time in my life on this show you know everything does not demand my judgment and I have a couple a couple topics like on the penny and daylight savings time I
00:04:59
thought yeah you didn't have no view and no reason to speak now I feel like I'm I'm watching this but I
00:05:06
don't have a view on it the only thing I'll say is that you know Marjorie Taylor green
00:05:12
is sort of what happens when CrossFit and a Facebook comment section have a baby and then raise it on Monster Energy
00:05:19
drink which she has said and and resentment. Um I I don't know how to feel about her. It's weird.
00:05:26
You've always said and I I absolutely believe this. We have to embrace imperfect allies and MTG is acting I you know someone asked
00:05:33
us the joke as you said this who's the leader of the Democratic party and it's Marjorie Taylor Green right now. Yeah. And everybody loves a turn coat
00:05:39
because it's good for your own advantage. Yeah. But something has happened where she has
00:05:45
seen polling data and someone in her campaign has said we are going to do the mother of all pivots
00:05:51
here because there's a huge opportunity. Um and I feel like she's she's a real canary in the coal mine for or the Trump campaign because y
00:06:03
she strikes me as being politically pretty savvy. Very much so. and she's done some
00:06:08
polling in her own district and found out that this positioning of turning on Trump for the first time makes sense
00:06:15
politically. So to me it's it's um it's just go ahead from a branding perspective because again a lot of people are like I don't believe her and I my joke I was doing on
00:06:26
the tour was she's been visited by three ghosts recently like the the whole Scrooge pivot essentially uh in this
00:06:33
overnight conversion. Um, I don't know how long it's been going on and I would love some reporting from people actually
00:06:39
close to her. Um, if they could if reporters could get to those people of what happened here. Um, because she is
00:06:46
it's unbelievable actually even though I have to tell you she's incredibly persuasive and her I was I was a you
00:06:54
know she's she makes a very I was a QAnon conspiracy uh victim essentially which I have seen
00:07:01
it from you know I've seen it with my mom. I've seen it with lots of people, friends of mine, who have suddenly gone
00:07:07
crazy essentially. And and nobody's come back. That's the thing. But you think about those people who were KKK and then they teach people not to do violence or you you of the remember the IRA people.
00:07:21
They were having all these nonviolent and at some point you've got to go and they were extraordinarily violent
00:07:26
people, these skin heads that then teach kids to not do that. At some point you have to believe them, I guess. Um, but talk about the brand thing because you do have a sneaking suspicion. It's a
00:07:37
trick. And of course AOC said it was because of the Senate race, which I'm like, okay, that make Okay. Like I'm I'm
00:07:43
not offended by that necessarily. They they treated her like [ __ ] cuz she's a woman, right? Because they were like,
00:07:49
"We're not letting you in." And she had to change her brand because it wasn't working for her. But people do that every day, you know, whether they're in
00:07:55
marriages or you know, you got to change or you you you lose or you don't lose or
00:08:00
you I don't know because she's people are very mean about her turnabout. They did that same thing with George Conway
00:08:06
or Liz Cheney or anyone else in the but but George and Liz, it really wasn't a brand quite frankly. Well, Liz, it was so let me back up. the the the the quoteunquote brand positioning. I would
00:08:19
argue Marjorie Taylor Green has gone for I want to come across like one of those women or the type of woman who will return a rotisserie chicken to Costco
00:08:25
after I've eaten half of it. She just has [ __ ] crazy weird energy and uh it's that time it's like 5:30 here anyway. Did you do that? Did you do that once? Yeah. Well, I've heard that before.
00:08:38
Yeah. I've never heard of that but I like it. But where she's just so [ __ ] crazy. You're like, "Yeah, take it back. Just give her her money back."
00:08:44
Yeah. Right. Exactly. Um, but I would argue, okay, so first off, from a branding standpoint, people appreciate what she's doing is actually poor
00:08:55
branding because, and I'm not saying it's not good for the country. I'm not saying it's not the right thing to do. It might end up being very strategic.
00:09:02
But the reality is people appreciate someone who is consistent even if they don't agree with the values they're showing consistency on.
00:09:08
So quite frankly, John Kerry ran everyone gives Vice President Harris a ton of [ __ ] Um, Senator Kerry or
00:09:16
Secretary Kerry ran a pretty poor campaign and that is he came across as just the the ad that just absolutely
00:09:22
devastated him was a a video footage of him wind surfing in Net Harbor and it just
00:09:29
said he was against the Iraq war before he was for it before he was against it and it ended with this devastating line
00:09:36
in a picture of him on his his kiteboard saying uh you know John Kerry where whichever way the winds the wind blows. Uh oh yeah. And so people like for example George W.
00:09:47
Bush incredibly unpopular war in Iraq probably first Bell Hall of Fame geopolitical catastrophic mistake.
00:09:55
But because he never wavered. People respect that. And so from a brand standpoint people would rather you be just [ __ ] crazy and stay that way or
00:10:05
crazy crazy liberal cuz those are the people who have been drawn to you. And but whereas I think Liz Cheney and
00:10:11
George Conway stayed true to quite frankly GOP traditional principles, I don't think they really flip-flopped. I
00:10:17
think they're very traditional. They did unnatural things for Trump and then stopped, right? And went back to
00:10:23
their normal shape essentially. Yeah. But they they did kind of my opinion on Cheney and
00:10:29
Well, they were pretty for a while. They're the old GOPers that basically MAGA has cast from the cast out from the
00:10:36
party. Absolutely. Yeah. But she was at the heart of it. She was at the heart of it. But her brand, it'll be very interesting
00:10:42
to see what happens. And what what'll be super interesting is if if she's reelected, he's basically aimed her guns
00:10:48
at her. Whenever he's aimed his guns at anyone, it has been a direct hit. It has been shocking how the the
00:10:54
Well, no, Thomas Massie won despite a direct he tried to get Thomas Massie out the last time.
00:11:00
Yeah, but my sense is I think MTG would be an entirely different ballgame cuz I do. Do you know how much her district went for Trump? There's been there's just been some a lot except that the head of the Republican party in the district is
00:11:12
backing her, not Trump. Yeah, that will be if I feel like that's interesting. I feel like she's your finger being pulled out of a dyke. Yeah, so to speak.
00:11:23
She's going to become a lesbian in San Francisco soon, but go ahead. She could fit. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not going to comment on
00:11:29
that. So, but she uh by the way, Debbie Brewbreaker, my girlfriend, lesbian, uh as you said, or as she said, first thing she said was bats for the other team, so to speak.
00:11:42
Um that's happening a lot to me, Cara. I know that. Anyway, uh but you know what I'm going to do for you?
00:11:47
I'm going to go straight anyway. Sorry. Uh so, at this point, I think that that ship has sailed, Cara.
00:11:53
I think it has. I think that ship has sailed. No, but MTG, I think she's actually a seminal figure in the political landscape
00:12:00
because if she gets reelected and shows that she can basically stick up the middle finger to President Trump and
00:12:06
he's now two years into his lame duck presidency and you said something on the tour that really sort of struck me was that you think you don't think he's
00:12:12
going to finish out his presidency. I don't I really don't know actually. I really don't of this past week this
00:12:19
shift on the Epstein files whether they scrub them or not. He's in a weak position and I think they sense it. And
00:12:26
by the way, I think there are videos. I think I think there are photos and I think they're not good. And that's
00:12:31
what's missing here is he's scared of something. It's something he's scared. You know, they they made fun of it actually. They were repeating
00:12:37
a lot of stuff you said is, you know, if if I was innocent, wouldn't I release things? And and the it was the opener
00:12:43
for SNL. Um and it was really quite like saying what you were saying is he looks
00:12:49
so guilty the way he's behaving. Amelia Heheart. I'm like, I'm happy he released that, although we still don't know where
00:12:54
she went. But, um, you know, we're going to have to live with that unfortunate accident. Um, but, uh, he's he's going
00:13:01
to try to do distraction after distraction, but at some point you do run out of steam of these distractions.
00:13:07
I feel like you can't unless you like he attacks a country that's another Venezuela. Um, but I think he's in a
00:13:13
deeply weak position and I think Green is just an example of that. Um, it'll be interesting if she keeps this up cuz she
00:13:20
can't quite let go of him cuz that's a bridge too far. But she's like him of another time, not this one, not this Trump. And I think that's what's powerful because everyone I talk to in
00:13:31
the Trump universe who is supportive of him that is shifting is like, I liked him, but not this stuff. Not the white,
00:13:38
not the east wing, not the way they're doing ICE, not all these kind of rid like not but not this the guy essentially. So they like the idea of Trump, not the what's happened to him,
00:13:50
which is clearly a decline in cognitive and and I don't corruption. I don't think it's I don't think it's I don't see the cognitive decline. Occasionally he does look like an old man falling asleep, but I don't see the
00:14:01
quote unquote cognitive decline. And I think he actually presents as still remarkably robust. But well, I I was in my mom's my mom's in a
00:14:08
senior facility and there's a guy there. There's always a guy there that's really robust and really losing it, but also
00:14:14
very energetically loud and um but is dement has dementia. Like I'm just telling you, you can be very I had a friend whose mother had dementia and her grandmother grandmother had dementia and
00:14:26
she used to get up from the beach and start swimming and kept going. She was in great shape. She was very lively and
00:14:32
they had to go get her cuz she was so fit and so like full of beans but dement had dementia. So I don't we'll see. I don't know. I think he has impersonate Marjorie Taylor Green and if my room
00:14:44
service is late I'm going to blame the deep state. Okay. Good. Okay. All right. Speaking of what Congress is up to, House
00:14:49
Republicans are reportedly circulating a bill model on Trump's idea to lower health care costs redirecting insurance
00:14:55
subsidies directly to people's HSA accounts. They would be for Obamacare enrolles. Mark Cuban called this really
00:15:01
dumb, noting that when you send money to people's HSAs, there's no guarantee the money will be spent on health care costs. When they're used by insurance
00:15:08
companies, they have to spend 85% on those costs. Um, everyone thinks this is like ridiculous. And again, another bad move by Trump, I think, and he seems to
00:15:19
be missing. He's usually politically so savvy and this is just a dumb idea. So yeah, look, I think it's time the if you were if you were just to look at our deficit, it's $2 trillion a year. If you
00:15:31
look at what we spend on healthcare, 13,000 per capita per year versus 6,500 for the other six members of the G7 you
00:15:37
used if we were able to actually leverage our scale and our innovation to provide health care at the same price as every
00:15:43
other nation. That's literally the the annual deficit. That would be a $2 trillion savings. You can't
00:15:50
we're going to have a very difficult time ever getting serious about a deficit as long as we continue the regulatory capture. And I don't think
00:15:57
there's of healthcare. I don't think there's a I I literally don't think there's a way to fix or enhance or
00:16:02
your idea. Repeat your idea. You repeated on stage several times. What explain your Medicare? Well, if you look at healthcare in the
00:16:09
United States, four out of five people are dissatisfied with it and they spend $13,000 a year on it. And that's just
00:16:15
there's no product in the world that is this expensive that has an 80% disapproval rate. And then you combine
00:16:21
that with regulatory capture where we've monetized health. Healthcare isn't about health. It's about shareholder value
00:16:27
unfortunately. And we've ended up with the most capitalist health care system in the sense that if you're in the top
00:16:32
10% in the United States, it's the best healthcare in the world. The person who a person in the top 1% lives 12 years
00:16:39
longer than the person in the bottom 1%. We've monetized it. It's actually for you and me, it's the best best health
00:16:44
care system in the world. For everyone else, not so frustrating. It's still frustrating. So, I think this has to be like really
00:16:50
ripped a band-aid off. And I'd agree. What I think at the same time, Medicare, which is what uh seniors are eligible for, actually delivers pretty efficiently and people are generally
00:17:01
pretty happy with it. So, my idea is to lower health uh Medicare eligibility by two years a year. Uh and then in 10 years, where are you? you're at 45 on up
00:17:13
is eligible for Medicare and that's 70 plus percent of health care costs because they happen later in your life and I think you just keep going until effectively you have socialized or
00:17:24
national um nationalized medical coverage it's time it's just not and everyone under could have a very
00:17:29
inexpensive under 40 they don't even need health insurance I know they don't but just to if
00:17:35
something happens right they need there's always yeah I'm trying to figure out I'm trying to figure out an elegant way It gives
00:17:40
the private sector time to respond because there are millions of jobs that are dependent upon this regulatory
00:17:46
capture. Yeah. And you want to give them time to adjust. But quite frankly, we have to move to an entirely different system. We
00:17:51
have to move absolutely in the UK. You know, the NHS, granted, people have their issues with it, but
00:17:57
generally you get good health care for free and it's the responsibility. They're they're they're perplexed by our health. They're like, "Why are you absolutely can't get They can't get over a nation that's the most prosperous
00:18:08
nation in the world where when your wife is diagnosed with lung cancer, it also means you're going bankrupt. 40% American households
00:18:14
have medical or dental debt. This is it's a huge, you know, happiness, we're talking a lot about it.
00:18:20
The six of the 10 happiest nations in the world are in Northern Europe. And I think a big component of that healthare
00:18:25
is people think of happiness is is having stuff or the ability to have stuff which America defines. But
00:18:32
actually a bigger component of happiness is absence from fear that things are going to be taken from you. And in the
00:18:37
US there's a real fear that your dignity will be taken from you and the health of your loved ones because it's it's so
00:18:43
[ __ ] expensive and people can't afford it. healthcare and homes. That's 100% and I H&H
00:18:50
I don't I think crime I think crime and immigration are big in terms of perception, but in terms of the actual
00:18:56
as it relates to mental illness, cortisol, stress, health issues. Well, I'm shocked that some of our
00:19:02
friends on the left aren't more aggressive about this. Hillary, Secretary Clinton was right. It just the
00:19:08
world wasn't ready for it in '92 or whenever it was. The the nation is ready for it. The
00:19:13
nation has had it. And then the system in the UK, the top I forget if it's five or 10% go
00:19:20
private. And people say, "Well, that's that's the aristocracy." And I'm like, "No, it's not. Rich people are always going to
00:19:26
have better service and better access." Get used to it, folks. Their kids are going to have an easier time getting into college. They're going to have
00:19:31
better story about them. Did you see that journal story? There was a journal story about rich really the ultra rich
00:19:37
um never see people like they go from one. It's a I'll send it to you. Well, that that's part of the problem and that
00:19:43
is the top the most powerful people by far in the top 1% and they're no longer invested in the basics of American life. They have their own schools. They have their own police force and security now.
00:19:54
They have their own healthcare. They have their own transportation. They have their own planes. Right. So when America infrastructure is
00:20:00
crumbling and when the average American has a difficult time getting good education or feels unsafe,
00:20:06
these people don't feel don't don't emp have no empathy because they're they're they've totally extricated themselves
00:20:12
from the American experience. Yeah, this story I'd recommend it in the Wall Street Journal. We have to move on. But one of the things that when Luigi
00:20:18
Manion happened, I was like, okay, here we are. This is more and this is going to happen over time. People are furious
00:20:24
about this thing and they don't need to be, right? It's so fixable for our country and it saves money. Anyway,
00:20:30
just before we move on, two things. I actually believe if people had any idea how the 1% live really live in terms of
00:20:37
access, I think there'd be a revolution right now. I think the difference between Well, it was described rather detailed
00:20:43
in the Wall Street Journal. The difference between a middle- class person and an upper income person when I was growing up was they got to fly business class and they had
00:20:49
they had a Cadillac, not a Grand Torino, but you lived largely the same life. Now it's a different [ __ ] universe. It is
00:20:55
just a different universe. And also just going back to the UK health care care system, the people who go private because they have the money for it.
00:21:02
It actually kind of works because they basically take pressure off the system because they're not they're not in the
00:21:07
system. So I I think look, it's time for nationalized healthcare. It's time for socialized healthcare in the United
00:21:13
States. It's just not working for us. Oh, you socialist. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, Peter
00:21:18
Teal dumps his stake in Nvidia. I'm very eager to hear what you say about this. Support for this show comes from Upway.
00:21:26
If you're tired of being stuck in traffic or watching gas prices climb higher and higher, you're not alone. There's a better, freer way to move
00:21:32
through your day. And it might just change how you feel about commuting. An ebank from Upway can give you that
00:21:37
feeling of freedom. Fresh air, no traffic, no stress. It's not just good for your health, it's better for your
00:21:43
wallet, your time, and honestly, your happiness. Upway makes it easy. They offer top brands like Specialized
00:21:49
Cannondale and Aventon at up to 60% off retail. Every ebike is thoroughly inspected by a professional mechanic and
00:21:56
comes with a one-year warranty so you can ride with peace of mind. You can search by brand or style, book a call
00:22:02
with a real human for help, or even stop by their showrooms in New York or LA. So go to upwway.co and use code pivot 150
00:22:10
to get $150 off your first ebike purchase of $1,000 or more. That's upwway.co. co code pivot 150. Go ahead,
00:22:19
you won't regret it. Support for this show comes from Mint Mobile. Most holiday gifts, unfortunately, end up in the drawer in the back of your closet. Or maybe
00:22:30
they're quote accidentally left at a cousin's house. Thankfully, this holiday season, you can make sure every holiday
00:22:37
gift is something for everyone to enjoy. That's right, Mint Mobile is offering unlimited premium wireless for $15 a
00:22:43
month. That's their best deal of year. also known as the only holiday gift you'll actually use every single day and
00:22:50
one that you literally can't leave at a cousin's house. With Mint Mobile, you can get three, six, or 12 month
00:22:55
unlimited plan for $15 a month. All Mint plans come with high-speed data, unlimited talk and text on the nation's
00:23:01
largest 5G network. You can also bring your current phone and number over to Mint with no contracts required. So,
00:23:07
don't get them socks, get them premium wireless for $15 a month. Shop Mint unlimited plans at mintmobile.com/pivot.
00:23:14
That's mintmobile.com/pivot. Limited time offer. Upfront payments of $45 for 3 months, $90 for 6 months, and $180 for 12 months. Plan required $15 a
00:23:27
month equivalent. Taxes and fees extra. Initial plan term only. Greater than 35 GB may slow when the network is busy. Capable device required. Availability, speed, and coverage varies. See
00:23:39
mintmobile.com. Scott, we're back. Peter Teal's fund has sold off this entire stake in Nvidia, elevating AI bubble fears. At the time of this taping early Monday morning, it
00:23:51
looks like the markets are in for a muted open after a rocky week of tech stock sell-offs quite a lot while we
00:23:57
were away. The NASDAQ Composite ended last week down a half a percentage point led by dips in Alphabet, Amazon, and
00:24:03
Meta, even though Warren Buffett bought into uh Alphabet, which he never buys into tech. Any uh talk about this this
00:24:10
move and and let me just add this. Speaking of AI bubble fears, some recent reports are shedding more light on
00:24:15
OpenAI's finances. This was jaw-dropping, I thought. Documents obtained by the Wall Street Journal show
00:24:20
the company is burning through cash. I mean, it is a forest fire. Operating losses are projected to reach about 3/4
00:24:26
of annual revenues by 2028, mostly due to computing costs, of course, though the company expects to turn a profit by
00:24:33
2030. They say they are. OpenAI spent about 12 and they could this happened with other internet companies. OpenAI
00:24:39
spent about $12 billion on inference, essentially computing costs, between 2024 and the third quarter of 2025,
00:24:46
according to documents reviewed by tech blogger Ed Zitron. Uh the documents also show Microsoft's revenue share payments
00:24:52
from OpenAI roughly doubling since last year. OpenAI said these aren't accurate, I guess. Um but they are having this,
00:25:00
we'll see when they have their IPO. Uh Sam Alman recently said Open AI's revenue is more than $13 billion a year,
00:25:06
but these latest numbers don't seem to support that. Um any any thoughts on this stuff? I'm really interested in your take on on the the the teal stuff
00:25:16
combined with um and of course uh uh was his name uh from Masan sold off one Nvidia in order to get into open AI. But go ahead. Well, I think you'd I think most people most market analysts would
00:25:30
go, listen, this is just some some profit taking. Nvidia is up 38%. Even Nvidia was down 8% last week, but it's
00:25:37
up 38% for the year. Microsoft down 1.3, up 22. Meta's flat was down 4 and a.5%.
00:25:44
It's only up 2% for the year. Amazon is up 7%, but it gave back 8% last last week. Alphabet was down 3%, but it's up 45%. And Apple, nice call. Apple's up.
00:25:57
Apple's 1 point up 1.2% last week and up 12% for the year. And the companies that
00:26:03
so Apple and Amazon are supposed to be most immune from the AI trade. They haven't gone all in. Uh I I personally,
00:26:09
and again, this isn't financial advice, but I'm increasingly convinced that the string that gets pulled on that takes
00:26:15
down the global economy to recession levels and it'll be no there'll be nowhere to hide is the following. I
00:26:22
think the quoteunquote trillion dollar plus commitments or framework that uh Sam Alman has made to try and convince
00:26:28
everybody I know more than you and this is so [ __ ] huge I need 60 nuclear power plants and 300 billion and compute
00:26:34
from Oracle. I think a lot of that is marketing and great if the revenue is doubled at open AAI it means it stock is
00:26:41
80% overvalue because built into that valuation of 40 times revenue is that this thing is quadrupling every 12 months and will quadruple every 12 months for 4 years and it's not and the
00:26:55
moment they announce I again I think this trade unwinds the following way I think a traditional company a PepsiCo a
00:27:02
Caterpillar on an earnings call says Look, we are excited about AI. We do think it's it's it's going to be a
00:27:07
breakthrough, but we are scaling back our investment. And then a bunch of other traditional S&P 500 companies look
00:27:14
at each other and make the same announcement. Open AI has to, you know, it becomes clear there's no [ __ ] way
00:27:20
OpenAI is going to continue to be able to buy $300 billion, hundred billion in Nvidia chips. And the thing that takes
00:27:26
the market down, quite frankly, is Nvidia. Because with a $5 trillion market cap, if this thing gets cut in
00:27:32
half and there's a $2.5 trillion destruction in the market, which will impact the top 10% of households who are now responsible for 50% of consumer
00:27:39
spending, that's how the economy like literally starts to throw up and convulse.
00:27:44
And I think we're getting there. The narrative has gone from AI boom to AI bubble. Now everyone, have you people
00:27:51
don't realize because it happens incremental and you said something always struck me that humans adapt. People don't realize how much the
00:27:57
narrative has changed around AI in the financial press just in the last 15 days. Bubble story. I've read so many bubble stories. It's crazy. And of course, as
00:28:08
you say, sometimes when that's the case, it doesn't happen, right? Over it overindexes on that. I would say the
00:28:15
teal thing. I don't think it's just profit taking. Although he's this guy is has a like a a tuning fork for money, right?
00:28:22
he whether he figures out some weird tax plan that he never pays taxes again or some weird
00:28:27
gap gains thing that he does. He's always up to some like amazingly ridiculous and greedy
00:28:33
thing to do. But, you know, that's him. He's a capitalist. He's going to take advantage of every, you know, nook and cranny of problems. Um, but it was
00:28:41
interesting that it it just um they they see things before people because they're
00:28:46
in the middle of it and they can actually see the numbers. and anyone that can see the numbers, you have to pay attention to their moves and it's
00:28:52
not just a profit taking, right? It's not just that. Um I think I think probably it's not like you sort of feel like remember Amazon was all like going
00:29:03
to be on Amazon.combomb that kind of stuff that there was that narrative that went on and then it wasn't. But this is
00:29:09
so much bigger. Like it's so big and it affects everything. And it was and they're already established industries
00:29:15
and already established companies. These other companies when they coughed, nobody cared. In this case, when they
00:29:21
cough, everyone dies essentially. Um what's here's an interesting thing. Jeff Bezos is taking a larger role in the AI
00:29:28
game. He's created a startup called Project Prometheus. Oh, it's so Oh, it's such a macho, isn't it?
00:29:34
I know, right? Um, by the way, Prometheus did not have the greatest tale, Jeff, just so you know. Uh, for
00:29:40
people who don't know, Prometheus gave humans fire. Um, and he defied the gods for doing this. But as punishment for
00:29:47
his actions, Zeus uh condemned Prometheus to internal torment, including uh, an eagle ate his liver daily. So, good luck, Jeff. Um, and
00:29:58
he'll be the co-CEO. The company is focusing on AI with real world applications and aerospace cars in other
00:30:05
fields makes sense. Project Prometheus has already raised $6.2 billion in funding. Um I'm not sure what it's
00:30:12
probably making apps, right? I would assume like how you how you would deploy it anywhere like what what's the use of
00:30:18
AI? And I think people right now are mostly using it for search, you know, sort of a a more robust search or a more
00:30:24
robust analytical thing. And so the question is what how do you make it really seamlessly useful throughout which is what you're talking about? What's the actual ROI on these things?
00:30:37
So I don't know I don't know if you think of anything about yeah the new the thing that kind of ident marks the age a little bit is
00:30:42
weapons of mass distraction and that is right I think the country is being run by I think we're bombing fishing boats which
00:30:50
a no fentanyl comes out of Venezuela. They don't have any fentanyl production. Fishing boats, that's for sure. And then and then if these fishing boats
00:30:56
were the distribution system or the transportation system for the drug trade, which by the way is not the way you go after the drug trade, the
00:31:03
transportation system, they would have if they were in fact fairing drugs or fentanyl, of which there's none in
00:31:09
Venezuela to Miami. These boats would need to make 20 stops to refuel, which is sort of logistically improbable, if not impossible. I believe we're bombing fishing boats
00:31:20
because of a dead pedophile. I I think they every day as soon as Epstein creeps back into the news, they try and come up with something, you know, whether it's this health account nonsense or an additional 100%
00:31:32
tariff on Lithuania to try and distract them. And then the other person that does this,
00:31:37
I mean, the most powerful person in the world and the wealthiest man in the world are literally deploying all of their energy and firepower on
00:31:43
distraction right now. And Musk is like, "Look at anything but the fact I have a
00:31:48
car company trading at, you know, a revenue multiple that's never made sense for a car." Oh, look
00:31:54
over here. It's robots. Look over here. It's autonomous. Look over here. I would agree. It's AI. like jazz hands on [ __ ] mess
00:32:03
because it's not if he just starts talking about Tesla as a car company and the metrics
00:32:09
and what the plan is for this company to wrap steel around a motor, people are going to wake up and go, "Oh, it's a car
00:32:15
company." And take the stock down 80%. It's also Can I Can I add something? It's more than that. It's also the idea
00:32:22
that they can't shut up. I was just thinking this last night. I'm going on that uh the show Jennifer, you know,
00:32:28
those two ladies. I' I've had it ladies and I had to think of I've had it. I have had it with them talking like it's
00:32:35
one of when Bill Aman was giving dating advice. I you know I was thinking like I would call him a cheap ass discount
00:32:40
version of Scott Galloway. It was first of all stupid advice for men, young men. He's sort of moving into your space. I'd
00:32:47
give him a smackaroo Scott, but he's sort of copying. Yes. He put out this whole thing about
00:32:53
can I meet you? You go up to a girl at a bar and you say, "Can I meet you?" "Can I meet?" You just did you. Can I
00:33:00
meet you? Can I meet you? That's his piece of He like started giving dating advice.
00:33:06
I'm like, "Can you just go back to hedge funds and stop coning on everything?" I bet he saw like the Galloways number
00:33:12
one. I need to get in on this thing and it gives me a softer side of Sears kind of look. But yeah, he had and it's
00:33:18
completely So, just to be clear, I don't But that's what I mean. Bezos can't shut up. I know. But I
00:33:24
I try and base my dating advice on research. So, just real briefly, gentlemen. Women are attracted to men
00:33:30
sexually for three reasons. The first is signaling resources. So, the bad news is, you know, that's a range of
00:33:36
Billman. Yeah. But you can also signal resources by having a plan and having your act together and demonstrating discipline.
00:33:42
It's like signaling not only current but future resources. Second is intellect. What's the fastest way to communicate
00:33:48
intellect, Cara? I don't know. Make a joke. Be funny. That's right. So, I've told
00:33:53
you my impersonation of a woman. I'm laughing. I'm laughing. I'm naked. And then, and then if you can if you can
00:33:59
make a woman laugh, I should not laugh at that, but it was fun. If you can make a woman laugh, she'll have coffee with her. And then the third
00:34:05
thing, and this is the most underleveraged weapon in dating and the advice I have for young men is kindness.
00:34:11
And it's true. Women instinctively believe at some point they'll be vulnerable because of gestation. And they want someone who is a kind man.
00:34:19
This all makes sense. Can I meet you? Does not Yeah. So, I I don't give guys opening lines. I I I would start with, "Hey,
00:34:26
where are you from?" And and then you read body language or what's that old line? Uh that's a nice
00:34:32
shirt. It'll look great on my floor in the morning. Well, I my my big line is you give them
00:34:37
you give them the phone and ask them to take pictures a picture of you. And everyone always says yes and no problem.
00:34:43
And they're nice. And then you say, "Now, can you turn it around on Periscope mode and take a picture of the two of us?" And she'll
00:34:48
go, "Why?" And you say, "Cuz I want to show it to our kids." Oh my god, that's so creepy. That would
00:34:55
send me way way like how can I get out of this place with my uh head intact? No, no one needs to take dating advice from a guy who lost his virginity at 19. No, that's true.
00:35:06
No, but there's there's basics. I did not know Bill was get is Bill getting into the young men game? I'm going to have to call Richard.
00:35:13
Get out of I was immediately angry, but it was also stupid. So, I thought, okay,
00:35:19
I'm angry and yet it's stupid. He's like totally getting into the Scott game. He'll probably call you for lunch like
00:35:24
they all do. Like, let's have lunch and chat. Let's talk about hedge funds. Bill, you're a hedge fund person. That's
00:35:30
the only thing we want to talk to you about otherwise. I don't mind Bill that much. I think it's like I think he's become a clown. I think
00:35:36
he's a very talented investor, very risktaking, but he needs to stop talking about everything else publicly. He can
00:35:42
talk about it privately, but he has an interest in whatever. He reminds me there's a great show um on
00:35:48
only we can talk about things we're not supposed to talk then we have no domain expert I do a lot of reporting. No I I
00:35:54
don't talk about hedge fund investing. I don't know anything about I ask you. We just talked about the market. Yes. But you talked about it. I didn't
00:36:00
cuz I don't know anything about it because you know something about it because you've been investing since 13
00:36:05
with sigh apparently. So um but there's a there's a show called the beast in me and then we're going to move on. Um, and
00:36:12
it's with um, Matthew Rice and Claire Danes, and it's about this billionaire who lives next door to this Purprise
00:36:18
winning lesbian writer. It's kind of echoes. Um, and he's such an irritating person. And literally, they have a lunch that I have had with a dozen different tech people, rich people, and it was so
00:36:30
like he's so irritating in this show. He also might be a killer. Um, but it's uh,
00:36:36
anyway, just he's so irritating. So, stop getting into Scott. I was defending you, Scott. Get out of
00:36:41
I love how you're like you're like a dog and you're like protecting my purse. Well, it's like cheap discount Scott
00:36:48
Galloway. I don't want cheap ass. I want the real [ __ ] deal. Want the premium. You want that new leather smell. You want that new
00:36:55
No, I do not want Bill Aman to give dating advice. I'd like him to speak. I'd love hedge fund advice from Bill.
00:37:01
So weird right now. I bought I bought axe spray in the airport cuz I didn't have deodorant. I smell like a 19-year-old boy. No, 19. Try 12.
00:37:09
Yeah. My sons were done with it at 13. Anyway, the worst. I just had a memory of really bad smelling young men. Oh my god. Just to put a finer point on the actual substance of the conversation. So, at
00:37:20
the peak of the dot bubble, um, all of big tech accounted for about 34% of the S&P. There's just 10
00:37:27
companies now that account for 40% and the 10 biggest companies in tech back then were 27%. So these companies are
00:37:35
50% more expensive as a percentage or they account for 50% more as a percentage of the total S&P. So we are
00:37:40
now in this was look out below territory. If you look at what happened to these companies in 2000
00:37:47
and you look at their peak from which they fell these companies are now 50% uh have 50% more market cap as a percentage of the total market. And then the Buffett test where you take essentially
00:37:58
the market cap of the S&P as a percentage um of GDP. He likes it. He I guess normally it trades around 80 or 90%. It's trading at 220% right now. Yeah. Yeah. Well, Buffett is mostly in
00:38:12
cash except he bought some Oh, he's you know he's assembled a war chest of $310 billion in cash.
00:38:19
He did buy he did buy Google. Yeah, he bought Alphabet. That was interesting. uh and and Apple
00:38:25
and Amazon are probably the least vulnerable because they have not gone all in on AI like everybody else. But
00:38:30
the narrative has changed really dramatically, which isn't to say which isn't to say that the market my friend
00:38:36
Barry Rholz reminded me that 97 when everyone said said the market was overvalued, it dramatically doubled from
00:38:42
that point. But this feels really really wobbly. It's going to go fast. That's my
00:38:48
feeling. Um all right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. And when we come back, bonds are thriving.
00:38:53
Support for the show comes from ODO. Running a business is hard enough, and you don't need to make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to
00:39:00
each other. One for sales, another for inventory, a separate one for accounting. Before you know it, you find yourself drowning in software and
00:39:06
processes instead of focusing on what matters, growing your business. This is where ODO comes in. It's the only
00:39:11
business software you'll ever need. ODO is an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that handles everything. That
00:39:16
means CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, HR, and more. No more app overload. No more juggling login, just
00:39:23
one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part is that ODU replaces multiple expensive platforms
00:39:29
for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business. Whether you're just starting out or you're already scaling it up. Plus, it's easy
00:39:36
to use, customizable, and designed to streamline every process. It's time to put the clutter aside and focus on what
00:39:42
really matters, running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you? Try ODO for free
00:39:47
at odo.com. That's odo.com. Support for the show comes from AG1. Look, we all know we aren't getting any younger, which means we've got to make the most
00:40:03
of what we have today. And to get that energy, it's time you try AG1. AG1 NextGen is a daily health drink clinically shown to support gut health and fill in common nutrient gaps. With
00:40:14
five probiotic strains and 75 plus vitamins and minerals, AG1 NextGen replaces the need for a multivitamin,
00:40:20
probiotic, and more. One scoop in the morning with 8 to 12 ounces of cold water adds up to whole body health
00:40:25
support from 75 plus vitamins, minerals, probiotics, and whole food sourced ingredients. I've used AG1 and I really
00:40:33
like it. I'm a supporter. Head to drink.com/pivot to claim your free welcome kit. You'll
00:40:38
get a bottle of vitamin D3/K2, a shaker bottle, and a sample pack of all three new AG1 flavors, tropical citrus, and
00:40:45
berry to find your favorite. That's drinkagg.com/pivot to try AG1. Today, we're back with more
00:40:52
news. So, bonds are having a moment. What's usually seen as a steady, predictable investment uh is having its
00:40:58
best year since 2020. So far, the Bloomberg US Aggriate Bond Index has returned around 6.7% in 2025. And you
00:41:06
know who's noticed? President Trump, he's bought at least $82 million in corporate and municipal bonds since the end of the summer. According to ethics
00:41:13
forms, we're talking about over 175 separate purchases here. And here's the interesting part. A bunch of these
00:41:20
investments are in sectors that are so happen to benefit from his own policies. What a surprise. And by the way, I
00:41:25
recommend watching Scott Pelly's piece on 60 Minutes about the Binance CEO pardon. It's not new reporting by any
00:41:32
stretch of the imagination, but he brings it together nicely. Anyway, um is there a smart move for non-presidents?
00:41:37
Explain this for the people. Again, I shall not comment cuz I don't know. But can I meet you, but go ahead, sir.
00:41:45
Uh look, it's just it's been a bit of a flight to safety. Interest rates aren't they're historically not that high, but
00:41:51
in terms of recent history, they feel fairly rich. And I think what's going on here is pretty basic. And that is a lot
00:41:57
of investors feel the way I do, and that is we have no idea where to invest or find value. It feels
00:42:04
like with gold up 55% it's like where do you go like where all the stock stocks overvalued even foreign markets are
00:42:10
getting not frothy but what feels like fully valued and also there's feels like there's a lot of risk in the system so
00:42:16
if if your return on bonds is fairly decent and bonds are in the top of the cap structure meaning that as long Nvidia could could get cut by 90% but it
00:42:27
would likely still be able to pay off its debt or its bonds and so People generally think of bonds as being a safer instrument and they're getting they're getting actually paid for the
00:42:38
risk most people would argue right now because of the runup in interest rates and inflation. So kind of a safe haven
00:42:45
is like people look at the market and go I don't know where when the Dow is trading at a P of 25 and the Russell
00:42:51
2000 at 34 with the median historical at 19 and 15 respectively like okay stocks
00:42:58
are just too goddamn expensive. So there's been of a just a bit of a flight into the bond market which has rallied
00:43:04
the bond market. It's I think it's I don't think it's the bonds are such a great deal. I think it's a flight I
00:43:10
think it's a quote unquote riskoff strategy and there's more more money just flowed out of stocks into uh the
00:43:16
bond market. I think it's a pretty basic kind of fear index like people What do you think about Trump moving
00:43:21
into them? You know corruption or just I don't know what's going on there. I think what's going to happen I think the biggest thing that's going to happen in the debt markets is that essentially America's a giant bet on AI
00:43:34
in terms of right as you've noted yeah everything is about AI now if these companies get cut I don't see any way
00:43:41
that the global economy doesn't go into a recession because now the S&P dominates global market cap and
00:43:49
uh these 10 companies are 40% of the S&P so 20% of global market cap is in 10 companies But if you think about I I mean if this thing comes undone,
00:44:01
it's just it's just so I don't I mean it's just quite frankly it's just kind of scary. I'm I'm sitting
00:44:08
here thinking, "Wow, how do I put your money in? Gold up your ass. What are you doing?
00:44:13
Where do I you know where do gold up your ass?" Okay. Where do I put my money? It's it's it's
00:44:18
cash. That's that's And then of course you don't want to miss it. Yeah. It's very it's a very fraught time I think. Anyway,
00:44:24
uh one more You asked about Trump. I'm sorry I'm all over the place here. Go ahead. The the biggest thing that's going to happen in the bond market or
00:44:30
it's going to be a weird thing. Not only is America a giant bet on AI, Trump's presidency is a giant bet on AI
00:44:36
because I just don't think he Very good point. If if the market wasn't up 14, if the market was down 14%, not up 14%. I don't
00:44:44
think we'd have National Guard and cities National Guard. I just think he'd be out though. The S&P and the Dow continue to be the
00:44:51
most damaging metrics ever invested because they give the illusion of prosperity and that everything's all right. It is not.
00:44:57
And they also credit or or blame the president unfairly for the market's machinations. If this if the AI trade on unwinds, it's going to be terrible for
00:45:09
Trump. So, I think what he's going to do, I think he's going to backs stop the these enormous purchases. And what I
00:45:15
mean by that is if OpenAI says we need $500 billion to buy all these or commit to all these chips, I think they're going to ask the government to backs stop the debt and which is which is by
00:45:27
the way socialism. But I think he's going to do that. But I wonder what's going to happen to the credit markets when all
00:45:32
kidding. That's going to drive MAGA crazy. He is going to lose so much election wise if that happens. Well, the
00:45:40
reason the reason why Treasury bills and are so pay a lower interest rate than than corporate bonds is corporations are
00:45:47
supposed to take greater risks and also they're not as creditworthy as the US government. And when you start melding
00:45:53
the cor the private bond market and the US Treasury market, you're basically saying, okay, these are no longer these
00:45:59
take on the risk profile of corporate bonds then which could raise interest costs. Interest costs are already our
00:46:05
biggest uh have become our I think our biggest expense. uh behind social security. They're a trillion dollars
00:46:11
now. And that's a and that's even despite the fact that they trade, you know, most people would argue like a very safe instrument. He'll he would basically raise our I believe he would
00:46:22
raise our interest rate cost by 100 or 200 billion a year trying to backs stop the trade that if
00:46:28
it unwinds, not only the economy, I think that will be talk Margie will be mad about that one. And
00:46:34
oh, you're right. MAG will lose their [ __ ] over that. Lose their [ __ ] over that. Anyway, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be
00:46:39
back for wins and fails. Support for this show comes from MS Now. We the people in order to form a more perfect union. These words are more than just the opening of the Constitution.
00:46:52
They're a reminder of who this country belongs to and what we can be at our best. They're also the cornerstone of MS
00:46:59
Now. Whether it's breaking news, exclusive reporting, election coverage, or in-depth analysis, MS Now keeps the
00:47:05
people at the heart of everything they do. Home to the Rachel Matto Show, Morning Joe, The Briefing with Jen Saki,
00:47:12
and more voices you know and trust. MS Now is your source for news, opinion, and the world. Their name is new, but
00:47:19
you'll find the same commitment to justice, progress, and the truth you've relied on for decades. They'll continue
00:47:24
to cover the day news, ask tough questions, and explain how it impacts you. I really want these guys to win.
00:47:31
Same mission, new name, MS Now. Learn more at ms.now. Okay, Scott, let's do wins and fails. I think I will go first. Go ahead. Um, one thing that really irritates me
00:47:45
now, I like Seth Myers. I don't think he's my friend, but I I talked to him and he's a really terrific guy. Um, uh,
00:47:52
the administration's war on late night continues. President Trump has called on NBC to fire Seth Meyers after the show
00:47:58
featured multiple roasts at his expense. Seth is very funny. President said Meyers was suffering from TDS or Trump
00:48:04
derangement syndrome and described his performances uncontrollable rage. It's ridiculous. In a normal world, that's
00:48:11
fine. He can complain about he's obsessed with late night. He's obviously up late or something's happening by himself in his room with his clicker.
00:48:18
Um, and in an it what really irritated me once again, [ __ ] FCC chair, uh, Brandon Carr re-shared the post, Brandon, you suck up Toad. Do you
00:48:30
understand? The jig is friaking up for this guy at some point and you are going to go down hard.
00:48:36
Let me just say he is should not be sharing this post um about firing people when he got into trouble before saying, you know, we're coming to get Jimmy Kimmel. Remember that? where you had to
00:48:47
take back. Um, I thought I I just he is such a dumb [ __ ] I don't know what else to say, but
00:48:53
Trump can yank it. He yammers on about whoever Marjorie Teller Green. I think he is putting her at risk, by the way.
00:49:00
Um, and by the way, call out to Dana Bash for pointing out Marjorie, you weren't concerned about this until it
00:49:06
was directed at you. And Green said that's a fair criticism and you're right. Um, but uh, but in this case,
00:49:12
Brendan Carr is continues to make the same stupid mistake because he's not very smart. My win SNL this week, Glenn
00:49:19
Powell was so spectacularly good on SNL. He was so good. He really fell into it really beautifully. He He's I would I'm He's shockingly surprisingly funny. Um,
00:49:32
because he's so handsome and he took off his shirt, of course. Um, but there was an SNL AI photo sketch that it's not a
00:49:39
new idea that AI photos are demented. Sometimes can be demented or videos that you make. That's been a trope for, you
00:49:46
know, this AI slop thing and weird photos with six hands. It was so funny. Like it was about a grandmother and their kids give them this AI photos that turn old photos into AI photos and they
00:49:58
come alive. It was so funny. I recommend everybody see it. It it just really encapsulated like how [ __ ] ridiculous these AI photo enhancements are. And I
00:50:09
just think Glenn Powell, kudos. So my win is Tom Cruz received his first Oscar. I was here in LA and I kept seeing all I kept seeing all these
00:50:20
stars at the hotel and I guess last night was the governor's award or something or Governor's awards. Yep.
00:50:25
And Tom Cruz was given an honorary Oscar for you know contribution to the to the medium. But just I've always thought
00:50:32
that Tom Cruz and Brad Pitt and I think the same is actually true of Channing Tatum. He's in this cool movie called
00:50:38
Roofman. But I think these guys are so good-looking that it actually diminishes their the perception of just what fantastic actors they are. Is that what happens to you? That does happen to me. Me and me and
00:50:50
Bill Aman. Um uh but just just some of the movies, his body of work, obviously The Mission Impossible and Top Gun franchises, but he people forget he was in Risky
00:51:02
Business when he was a you teenager, Edge of Tomorrow, Minority Report, Rainman, The Color of Money, where Paul Newman finally got the uh an Oscar, Collateral,
00:51:14
A Few Good Men, Jerry Maguire, and my favorite You can't handle the truth. Sorry. And
00:51:20
my favorite film of his um Magnolia, I thought directed by Paul Thomas Anderson. I thought he should have got the award for that. Tropic Thunder, Eyes Wide Shut. I mean,
00:51:32
this guy Taps The Last Samurai, which was actually a pretty good film. Even his bad films are pretty good. All the
00:51:39
Right Moves. Remember that? Far and Away. I'm a huge Tom Cruz fan. If despite the Scientologist, I think he's a creepy in
00:51:46
real life dude. I have to say I've enjoyed this. He's not creepy. He's a Scientologist, but he's he seems like I've heard he's a really nice man.
00:51:53
I I on sets he's very generous. He's got that Taylor Swift generousness. He's tough on people in a good way. I I would
00:52:00
agree. I You don't hear it's just the Scientology thing that's vanilla sky with the most beautiful woman in the world, Penelopey Cruz.
00:52:07
Anyways, congratulations. I think Tom Cruz is just an incredible talent. Nice. Nice. I like that. I'm going to
00:52:13
agree with you. And anyways, my, you know, my fail is the boring stuff and that is uh I I just think we are in a
00:52:21
crazy [ __ ] overinflated market right now. If you look at even the emerging markets index is up 30%. Uh that's outpaced the S&P. That was the trade I recommended at the end end of last year
00:52:34
was foreign stocks and now that trade's kind of over. Bitcoin's at an all-time high 126,000. I mentioned gold is up
00:52:40
55%. And now I I mean you everything is just so expensive and whenever we get to this level of froth it sometimes there's not
00:52:52
a crash. Sometimes it just plays out over a decade which is sometimes even worse. It just goes there's been entire
00:52:58
decades Cara where the market just goes flat like New York real estate typically
00:53:03
doesn't go down. It just goes sideway for 10 years. I was looking I was reviewing all my investments over the
00:53:09
last decade and actually my real estate my the place I own in Manhattan has performed the least well and that can happen when a market is frothy. Sometimes it's not a big dramatic media
00:53:20
event. It just goes flat for 10 years. Y and the S&P forward PE typically averages 17. It's now at 22. uh it's only traded above 22 times twice since
00:53:32
1985 during the whole wait for it.com bubble and the co9 pandemic and after that the market fell off sharply each time anyways worried anyways my
00:53:44
I'm usually I mean granted you know Andrew Rossin and Josh Brown from Midholtz Management have always reminded me and I need to do this and it's one of my many flaws as investor you have to constantly ask yourself what could go
00:53:57
right and Andrew says that it's the optimists who have vastly beaten the pessimists in the market over the medium
00:54:03
and the long term because of demographics and innovation. The market continues to kind of churn up. But this
00:54:09
feels the the the argument or the loss is I think it's unhealthy for an economy to have this kind of concentration of power and value. It creates fragility and and the corruption layered on top of it.
00:54:20
Well, that doesn't help. But no, bad decisions. But just the um backstopping open AI, what a terrible
00:54:27
decision. Oh, that would be terrible. But Nasim Talib says he talks about fragility and anti-fragility and what
00:54:32
the definition of robust is. And a robust industry is one where any one or number of companies go out of business
00:54:37
and it wouldn't threaten the entire sector. So if McDonald's goes out of business, you're still going to be able to get your cheap fatty calories.
00:54:44
So the actually the the fast food industry is very robust. Our economy is becoming very fragile because of the regulatory capture and also just the hysteria around this space. And we now
00:54:56
have 10 companies that are literally the string that if they get pulled on puts the global economy into a recession. Yep. So it's boring. But my my fail is
00:55:07
got worried in LA. Well, a lack of a lack of antitrust. LA I sure like anyways that's my win is Tom Cruz finally getting the recognition he deserves. And my fail is we have let our
00:55:19
economy um become way too concentrated across a small number. We have an anti-fragile or we have a fragile
00:55:26
economy right now based on this trade which is by the way folks it's now more crazy town than it was in 99.
00:55:34
Correct. All right. That's really bracing and sobering. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions
00:55:40
about business tech or whatever is on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show or call
00:55:45
8551 pivot. Elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe, this week in On with Cara Swisser, I spoke with filmmakers Ken Burns and Sarah Botstein about their American Revolution, their new six-part
00:55:57
docue series airing on PBS. I highly recommend it. Let's listen to a clip of Ken talking about young people. They're
00:56:03
more open. They're they're persuadable. They're they went with the Democratic Socialist. You know,
00:56:10
democratic socialists don't kill Jews. National Socialists kill Jews. Many of our allies are have been or are democratic socialists. I'm not worried
00:56:21
about democratic socialists. I'm worried about dictators. That's what I'm worried about and so are they because they told
00:56:28
us which way they wanted to go. Okay, that was a great interview. Um that's and I again I recommend the show.
00:56:33
Um and it's it's really full of really things I didn't know and I'm a history buff. Okay, that's the show. Uh thanks
00:56:40
for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. will be back on Friday. Scott, read us out.
00:56:45
Today's show is produced by Larara Neon, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Todd engineered this episode. Jim Mel
00:56:50
edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Burroughs, Mia Seo, and Dan Shalon. Nishad Kura is Vox Media's executive
00:56:56
producer of podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New
00:57:02
York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod. We'll be back later this week for
00:57:08
another breakdown of all things tech and business.