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Reddit, Trump Media, and the Return of Meme Stocks | Pivot

March 29, 2024 / 08:16

This episode discusses Reddit's IPO performance, Trump Media's stock volatility, and the dynamics of meme stocks. Key topics include market capitalization, monetization challenges, and insider trading practices.

Reddit's IPO saw shares rise 15%, with a market cap exceeding $9 billion. The hosts analyze the company's traffic and monetization issues, suggesting that its current valuation may not be sustainable.

Trump Media's stock experienced a 50% jump in early trading, leading to volatility pauses. The hosts express concerns about the company's financial health, noting its significant losses and user decline.

The conversation highlights the disparity in the IPO market, where retail investors often miss out on favorable pricing, benefiting institutional investors instead. The hosts describe the market as an insider game that favors the wealthy.

Discussion also touches on Nvidia's high valuation compared to Reddit and the speculative nature of meme stocks, particularly Trump Media, which they label as a potential scam.

TLDR

Reddit's IPO surges while Trump Media faces volatility and scrutiny over its financial practices.

Episode

8:16
00:00:00
we called it reddit's IPOs is a victory shares of the company are up 15% at the time of taping after jumping 48% on the
00:00:06
first trading day Market uh reddit's market cap is currently over9 billion uh another thing we called Trump media is a
00:00:14
meme stock shares the company jumped over 50% in the first minutes of trading causing a brief volatility pause Trump
00:00:20
media is trading at a market cap of almost 8 billion uh the company made just $3.4 million in the first 9 months
00:00:26
of 2023 which is and they lost a ton of money they're losing um they're down 39%
00:00:32
in users it's just a it's a scam of some sort it's just a it's a Ponzi SC I don't
00:00:37
know what's the word you would use um so talk about Reddit first and then uh Trump media stock uh we called this the
00:00:44
Reddit most traffic site in America that's not owned by alphabet in terrible monetization of that traffic but at the
00:00:53
same time that represents the opportunity and uh there's also a ton of money on the sidelines it just all the
00:00:59
mo lined up I just you could just feel this thing was going to get a big pop and also there's this very strange
00:01:04
dynamic in the IPO Market where it now makes sense for the company to price below the actual value they could get
00:01:12
such that because here's the thing we're talking about the fact that it was up 48% that's it's the only time you have
00:01:19
this branding event to be kind of the most successful or one of the most successful IPOs of the year and people
00:01:24
say well they left money on the table because they could have priced it higher when you're talking about a float of 20%
00:01:29
% maybe you lose 2% of the company but to be one of the most successful IPOs of the year and set the tone for your
00:01:35
company it's worth the dilution so this is the Racket and it is a racket the investment Banks say price it below what
00:01:43
it's worth and it's good branding it creates nice momentum nice Halo for you you only give up a little bit of
00:01:48
dilution and we the Investment Bank get to essentially give free money to our institutional clients who generate fees
00:01:54
for us now the unfortunate thing is the average retail investor doesn't get to participate they have to buy it at 47
00:02:00
bucks even though it priced at 34 I think so it's a racket it's another example of a transfer of wealth from
00:02:08
lower middle- income homes to institutions and rich people or people with access some people would argue well
00:02:15
Vanguard Blackstone have a lot of money from Firemen and teachers and they get to participate but be clear the IPO
00:02:21
Market is an Insider game and it is a bit of a fixed racket yeah yeah where's it going to go from here I think they'll
00:02:27
just have to now they'll be on the basics of what they're business is like going forward there's only one thing
00:02:32
that matters from this point forward right now it's right now on its basic numbers and its growth it's overvalued
00:02:38
if they show any momentum that they are able to better monetize that Niagara Falls of traffic the stock will go up
00:02:47
from here if they do not show momentum around monetization of their traffic it's going to go way down it's all I can
00:02:54
tell you is in a year the stock will not be here but GL I would agree I think they've got it it's going to be in but
00:03:00
it's still a very small it's very snap chatty it feels very Snapchatting very great a good product we'll see if they
00:03:05
can look like better than what it is I I I like the people who run it and it's still small it's still a very small
00:03:12
social media site but but the the contrast with SNAP is snap had much better user interface in my opinion was
00:03:18
probably more Innovative great better monetization but didn't have nearly the traffic of Reddit
00:03:26
and I think the market is deciding that the harder part is to get the traffic that you can probably figure out the
00:03:33
other stuff because this is trading I mean this is trading at a rich valuation now is a segue to True
00:03:39
social okay let's talk about Nvidia Nvidia is arguably the eye of the storm for hype round Ai and it's trading at 37
00:03:47
times sales oh my God that's insane right 37 times sales Reddit is trading at 11 times so 11 for Reddit digital
00:03:54
media potential huge growth we'll see uh Nvidia arguably hottest company in the world ,000 people turn out like like a
00:04:02
Justin Bieber concert or band concert at the San Jose Stadium to see Jensen hang
00:04:07
speak the financialization the idolatry of innovators and billionaires anyways that's trading at 37 time sales truth
00:04:15
social is trading at 1,500 times sales I mean you want to talk about a company that is D Jenga or a house of House of
00:04:26
Cards and by the way not Financial advice I would not get near the thing because you don't know what will happen
00:04:31
because this is has nothing their followers are going to do it's all based on his followers and if they're going to
00:04:36
keep it up they're going to keep handing him money it's also a very deaf way to give him money right if he's going to
00:04:41
sell it is to keep it's it's a really complex way to give him money but he you know they're trying to it's all Trump
00:04:48
fans and it's going to be Trump uh donator people who want to donate in a different way um just to keep it going
00:04:55
and there's all these rumors that he's getting people to keep it going you know by buying all you have to buy is just a
00:05:00
little bit to keep this stock in a crazy Zone you don't have to buy that much um
00:05:05
and and that there's all kinds of games happening here I think this is an SEC violation happening in real time right
00:05:11
now and I think it's a shareholder lawsuit situation and it's a it's a scam of some sort it's a it's not even a scam
00:05:17
what is it it's a it's a meme stock it's a meme stock but it's the memest meme stock of in mem bille is one of the
00:05:24
reporters called it and it just stay away even shorting it is a very dangerous situation correct I
00:05:31
mean my advice to anyone here is not to get near this thing because it's not trading it's it's just unknown what it's
00:05:38
trading on as far as we know he calls some someone in the gulf and says you know I'll make sure that we buy oil from
00:05:46
you just do me a favor come in heavy and you're right there's a tale of a whip here a small amount of a small amount of
00:05:52
purchases can send the stock skyrocketing and you just don't you don't want to get near this thing right
00:05:58
now I mean AMC and GameStop were considered kind of the ultimate meme stocks they're shitty businesses but
00:06:03
they were businesses they were doing billions in Revenue you could make an argument for theaters coming back you
00:06:09
can make an argument for GameStop getting an I don't know download a video game you you could make an argument good
00:06:14
decent management the guy from chewy whatever you can make an argument there this does 3 million in Revenue there's
00:06:21
not even a there really isn't even a business here this is not a business this is something else yeah he just has
00:06:26
to call some guy and say buy a million bucks buy a million bucks here um and it's it's like cost of doing business
00:06:31
for people if he becomes president that's really it it's it's a it's a it's so corrupt it's so crazy corrupt um it's
00:06:38
just going to be very interesting what happens the board is his son Devin and then who is it it's another Deon Nunes
00:06:47
his son another they're all his friends and all Oh Linda McMahon this makes this
00:06:53
makes Tesla's board look like a model of corporate governance yeah that's true and they can they can announce we've
00:06:59
decided his lock perod or eliminate it and he canes away they will have to discl
00:07:05
that'll be interesting is what happens to the stock if and when it's disclosed or we get close to any date where he can
00:07:14
sell because my guess is he's using that stock and I don't know if he has to disclose this to
00:07:19
guarantee uh his ability to raise the 175 million he has now but this guy is going to sell most or all of it because
00:07:27
he's going to look and go there's nothing here there he's going to decide he's going to
00:07:31
he knows there's nothing there and then what happened with the meme stocks is everyone together they say let's take
00:07:38
over the castle we can do it we can kill these short Sellers and they do it and then they look at each other and they
00:07:43
fall asleep and they go I need to get out of here before there's a rush out the door that's right the and they're
00:07:49
all looking at each other and there's only one person they're looking at here and it's the following when can Donald
00:07:54
Trump sell MH and when does he sell I I I just think this is going to be so this is
00:08:01
going to be such a case it's his next criminal case or his next civil case um where he's going to be sued for doing
00:08:07
whatever he's doing and there'll be emails everywhere because they're so clsh at their
00:08:14
corruption

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

  • 80
    Most memeable
  • 70
    Most shocking
  • 70
    Most quotable
  • 70
    Most controversial

Episode Highlights

  • Trump Media's Volatile Trading
    Trump Media shares soared over 50% in early trading, causing volatility pauses.
    “Trump media is trading at a market cap of almost 8 billion”
    @ 00m 20s
    March 29, 2024
  • The Racket of IPO Pricing
    Investment banks price IPOs below value for branding, benefiting institutions over retail investors.
    “It's a racket, it's another example of a transfer of wealth”
    @ 02m 06s
    March 29, 2024
  • The Meme Stock Dilemma
    Trump Media is labeled a meme stock, raising concerns about its legitimacy and future.
    “It's the memest meme stock of all time”
    @ 05m 22s
    March 29, 2024
  • Corruption and Governance Issues
    Concerns arise over the governance of Trump Media, likening it to a corrupt system.
    “This makes Tesla's board look like a model of corporate governance”
    @ 06m 55s
    March 29, 2024

Episode Quotes

  • The IPO Market is an Insider game.
    Reddit, Trump Media, and the Return of Meme Stocks | Pivot
  • This is not a business, this is something else.
    Reddit, Trump Media, and the Return of Meme Stocks | Pivot
  • It's so corrupt, it's so crazy corrupt.
    Reddit, Trump Media, and the Return of Meme Stocks | Pivot
  • When can Donald Trump sell?
    Reddit, Trump Media, and the Return of Meme Stocks | Pivot

Key Moments

  • Trump Media Surge00:14
  • Investment Bank Racket01:37
  • Meme Stock Warning05:16
  • Corruption Concerns06:35

Tension Over Time

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown