00:00:00
He really doesn't seem to have a plan. And he's the president, right? >> He'll call you and ask you for your plan
00:00:04
in about half an hour. >> He's going to Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York
00:00:15
Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisser. >> And I'm Scott Galloway.
00:00:20
>> So, I just flew in from San Francisco and boy are my arms tired. >> I've heard that truck before.
00:00:25
>> I know. I I don't know why I keep doing the the night flights things. I just
00:00:29
keep I think I'm getting too old for it. Um, but I had, as you can hear everybody, I have a cold. And I actually
00:00:35
was there to interview Gavin Newsome uh for his book, Young Man in a Hurry, uh, which is now, I guess, Old Man in a
00:00:42
Hurry. Um, and, uh, and so I I went in to do that and it was actually a fantastic interview. We'll talk about
00:00:49
it. >> That's got a lot of news. >> Yeah, I did. I made a lot. I'm a news
00:00:52
maker, my friend. I don't >> And I just just to be clear to give you insight into our relationship, he there
00:00:57
was someone put out a thing saying that he was in support of he changes tone or he's in support of regime change
00:01:03
>> and I wrote smart and you bered me. So why don't you give us >> not publicly. We're going to talk about
00:01:09
it. We're going to let's let's we'll get into it. I didn't berate you. It just
00:01:13
was inaccurately depicting the interview I had just done >> because I wrote because I wrote the word
00:01:18
smart. >> No, because you were tweeting an inaccurate report. That's all.
00:01:22
>> What was who who put out the inaccurate report? >> I don't know. It just was weird. It was
00:01:26
weird because it was so not what he said. Um, and so it just annoys me. It just annoys me. I mean, I definitely
00:01:32
definitely made a lot of news in that interview. Um, by the way, we talked we talked a lot about his book, which was
00:01:38
interesting. Um, we'll get to the >> But he's definitely not running for
00:01:41
president because no president ever puts out a book before they run for president.
00:01:44
>> I know. Well, no, he kept saying that he wasn't sure. It was really funny. And
00:01:47
then right afterwards, um, it's actually I like the book. It's gotten some bad
00:01:52
reviews, but I think they've just decided who he is and are b are reviewing it based on sort of that
00:01:58
anxious toad slick image versus a lot of stuff that he's done that's brave. He's
00:02:02
a very complex person like yourself, Scott Galloway. >> I've heard it's actually pretty
00:02:06
authentic. >> I thought it was great and it was a lot about stuff um it was there was it was
00:02:12
let me just characterize this discussion. The book I really like, I have to say, and I think I found out a
00:02:17
lot of things about him that I didn't know. His um about his mother. I I knew
00:02:22
a little bit about his mother's assisted suicide, but it was really uh um really
00:02:28
interesting to talk about a lot about his own struggles and not it wasn't the
00:02:32
dyslexia part. We didn't talk a lot about that, but a lot about I didn't
00:02:36
know his wife had had a miscarriage, for example. Um they have he has four kids.
00:02:41
He almost had five. Um it was a there's a lot in there. There was a lot in there. And one of the things that struck
00:02:47
me, which brings me back to you, which I know how you like that, >> is he was the wife uh he was the son of
00:02:52
a single mom who was not wealthy. And he he has a lot of resonances to your with
00:02:58
your mom. You know what I mean? Like your story with your single mom who was struggling, father who was distant um
00:03:06
and who he who he desperately wanted to to to be with. It was really it reminded
00:03:10
me a lot of you actually. It was an interesting discussion. >> I think people underestimate Newsome and
00:03:16
I think they underestimate um DSantis and Rubio. Um but I think right now uh you know I I I think Governor Nome
00:03:26
hands down is the is the leading candidate on the Democratic side. And not only that, I think I know a little
00:03:32
bit about his personal story and I actually think it's quite compelling. >> Yeah.
00:03:36
>> And a lot of his personal failings I think will come across as a bit authentic. people know about them
00:03:42
>> and also I think California is going to begin not to peak but to recover at just
00:03:47
the right moment for him. >> Yeah, I I suspect. Anyway, it was really interesting because I did feel like I
00:03:51
was having the same discussion you and I have had about single moms. >> Look, we're the same person except he's
00:03:56
much more talented and handsome and higher character than me. Other than that, we're the same guy.
00:04:00
>> That's what he suffers from. That's everybody is sensitive to you and not to
00:04:02
him. He definitely played into it. We talked about that. It was a very personal thing, but we did get a lot of
00:04:07
news in too. >> Yeah. Reading about it everywhere. I know. Yeah. >> I I literally see Gavin Newsome and this
00:04:14
11-year-old boy on stage and I'm like, "Oh, I know her." >> And my voice is so For those listening
00:04:19
to it, I apologize. This is a good version of my voice. It was so I I was absolutely dead horse three hours before
00:04:26
and I thought I'd have to cancel, but I I I did all manner of things to my voice
00:04:30
to allow it to work. >> Um, and he got to over and I said I said, "You're lucky today. I've never
00:04:35
had a man overalk me, so I'm you're going to get some chance to do that today." Okay, which was funny. Um, and
00:04:40
he does talk a lot, let me just say. So, let's get right let's get right into it.
00:04:45
Um, President Trump says the US military intends to continue its assault on Iran
00:04:48
for four to five weeks if necessary. Um, he keeps changing his tune. We'll get to
00:04:52
that in a second. The US and Israel began strikes on Saturday, killing Iran's Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah, as
00:04:57
well as several senior officials. Trump has justified the attack on Iran, which did not receive congressional approval,
00:05:03
by citing quote imminent threats, though he had not provided evidence that it looks like he doesn't have any. Iran is
00:05:09
retaliating all over the place with missiles and drones targeting Israel, the US bases in Gulf countries, Dubai,
00:05:15
all manner of of places. Four American service members have been killed, and Trump says there will likely be more,
00:05:21
but quote, "That's the way it is." Uh, kind of a callous way to put it. Um,
00:05:27
three US jets were also shot down in a friendly fire incident over Kuwait. The crew members got out safely. Thank
00:05:33
goodness. These are $90 million jets. That's $270 million. Uh, Trump has justified the attack on Iran, which did
00:05:40
not receive congressional approval by citing imminent threats, though he has not provided evidence and and many many
00:05:47
people who've been briefed on it, including Republicans, said there wasn't
00:05:50
evidence of that. That said, a lot of people are celebrating the death of the Ayatollah. Um, Defense Secretary Pete
00:05:57
Hegaz held a presser a little while ago. He said this uh is not so-called regime
00:06:02
change war, but a regime sure did change. Not clear if either of them is true because Trump has talked about
00:06:08
regime change and it doesn't appear as the regime has changed. Hegex was also
00:06:13
uh asked about the timeline. Let's listen to what he said if we can hear him directly.
00:06:18
>> To the media outlets and political left screaming endless wars, stop. This is
00:06:23
not Iraq. This is not endless. I was there for both. Our generation knows better and so
00:06:31
does this president. He called the last 20 years of nation building wars dumb. And he's right. This is the opposite.
00:06:40
>> Well, it's nice to hear from a stomach model who doesn't know what he's talking
00:06:43
about. But I also want to note about this uh interview I did with California Governor Gavin Newsome over the weekend
00:06:48
for the latest episode of On with Caris Fischer. Um, it's really interesting
00:06:52
because one of the issues was all the misinformation uh online. It was really quite, it
00:06:58
wasn't just something you tweeted, but it was all over the place misreporting
00:07:01
where he stands on all this. Let's listen to what he told me. And this was just a small piece of it cuz he went on
00:07:06
for a while decrying Donald Trump's action. Let's go. >> And that's Donald Trump, the chaos
00:07:11
president, this wrecking ball president across the board. Destruction is not strength.
00:07:19
And once again, we've seen him destroy not our not only our allies in relationship to the rest of the world,
00:07:26
but we're seeing him destroy any capacity to explain fundamentally what the core American interest is at this
00:07:34
moment to declare war, to go to war with a regime. And all of this is playing out
00:07:40
in real time. >> Um, news posted on X over the weekend, the corrupt or repressive Iranian regime
00:07:45
must never have nuclear weapons. leadership of Iran must go, but that doesn't justify the president of the
00:07:49
United States engaging in a legal, dangerous war. Very similar to what Senator Warner said. All all the
00:07:55
senators pretty much said, "This guy deserved to die, and at the same time,
00:07:58
this seems like a chaotic mess." Um, let's let's talk about a little bit
00:08:03
about it and and especially the economic impact that the fighting has effectively
00:08:08
shut down the straight of Hormuz, which carries 1/5if of the world's oil supply.
00:08:12
As is recording, oil prices are up about 7%, gas futures jumped as much as 9%. Uh
00:08:17
spike in energy places, supply chain strain, broader ripple effects across the global economy, especially because
00:08:22
of the uncertainty. And the last thing I would note um uh is that and and it's
00:08:27
interesting because Trump does respond to this is that um there's much reporting including in the Washington
00:08:33
Post um about how he he was convinced to do it through uh Muhammad bin Salman and
00:08:40
Benjamin Netanyahu and even JD Vance and General Kaine did not want to do this but here we are. So what do you talk a
00:08:47
little bit about the where it's going to go from here and your thoughts? Well, the the honest answer is I have no
00:08:53
idea or I I have a a vision for where you hope it goes, but I'm sympathetic to
00:09:00
Governors Newsome and Senator Warner. the notion that we're going to end up after Trump is gone,
00:09:08
we have to be thoughtful about how we improve the tensil strength of our democracy by stopping the slow but
00:09:15
steady leak of power from Congress which is the people to the president under the
00:09:21
oposis or cold comfort that they will stick to certain norms because effectively a president should not be
00:09:28
able military action you can maybe justify but this is war. And I'm sympathetic to
00:09:34
>> use the word war. Oh, go ahead. >> Pardon? >> He used the word war.
00:09:37
>> I know this is war. That it is war. And I'm sympathetic to the notion that the
00:09:41
reason we have 535 members of Congress representing, you know, two two per state in the Senate and one for every
00:09:48
750,000 people is the American people are supposed to have a say. But Democrats, it's 7% are actually in favor
00:09:55
of this. So there's going to need to be the best thing we could do coming out or
00:09:59
one of the best things I think coming out of the Trump administration and this highlights that is to have structural
00:10:04
reform around gerrymandering, citizens united and that Congress has to be involved or briefed or that we have to
00:10:12
go back to this notion where only Congress can decide if in fact we go to we go to war. Now where could this go?
00:10:19
As you know, I'm in favor, loosely speaking, around this action because I always like to ask like to ask myself
00:10:26
what could go right. >> Iran is 90 million people, sits on the second largest natural gas reserves, the
00:10:32
third largest oil reserves, incredible science, incredible universities, incredible entrepreneurial spirit.
00:10:39
Actually quite a nonseular. >> It was, that's for sure. >> Non sec. Well, I would argue it's
00:10:46
anyways fairly non-seular. a lot less anti-West than people have been led to believe by what I think is one of the
00:10:53
most oppressive, brutal regimes in history. So, what could go right? You could have one of the largest economies
00:11:02
in the Middle East become more pro- West. It's been punching below its weight class for 20 or 30 years now
00:11:09
because of poor technology and sanctions. you could immediately see it uh come up and be an economic power that
00:11:15
is pro- west, pro- trading, pro- capitalist. What effectively might be the low one of the biggest tax cuts in
00:11:22
history if you didn't if you saw more consistent flows of oil and technology
00:11:27
and a great trading partner. I actually think Europe would be the biggest beneficiary
00:11:31
>> and turn what has been the primary agent of chaos and terror >> in an unstable region into something
00:11:37
resembling I don't even call it pro- west but neutral west. So I think there's a lot that could go right here
00:11:43
and I think the risk assessment provided to the president in my view had a lot of
00:11:48
asymmetric upside. Now having said that what they missed here was part of the PAL doctrine and that is you have to
00:11:55
have clearly articulated objectives >> or plans for next beyond >> well they haven't they and and to your
00:12:02
point they just haven't been able to articulate in the last 24 hours what is
00:12:07
the offramp and the objective here is it regime change is it a more friendly regime is it I mean what exactly
00:12:14
>> and all that you're not going to get >> this notion that all of a sudden we're
00:12:18
going to provide air and the Iranian people are going to rise up and overtake 150,000 members of the
00:12:24
IRGC who are deeply integrated into >> they have outside plans. There's some
00:12:28
great reporting on this by the way by by legitimate news organizations. They have
00:12:32
h they have contingency plans in place for what happens if the dies and they're
00:12:38
carrying them out. >> But but we okay but in Syria, Libya and Iraq uh these were autocracies with a central
00:12:47
figure head. The RGC is very deeply embedded into the economy. >> Yeah. >> So when your mortgage and your salary is
00:12:54
being paid by the RGC, it's not like, oh, okay, the top guy Assad is gone and
00:12:59
boom, it's it's a new administration. So there's a lot about the ground game.
00:13:03
There's a lot about intelligence assets. And if they had said, we are going to,
00:13:09
for example, a potential offramp. We're going to neuter their navy. We're going
00:13:12
to diminish their air defense capabilities. We're going to make sure for sure there is absolutely no ability
00:13:18
to create or enrich nuclear stockpiles and then we're going to leave it up to
00:13:22
the Iranian people. That's technically an offramp. But I have seen in the last
00:13:26
24 hours them talk about regime change. No, this isn't regime change. So they
00:13:31
haven't been able to articulate what is next. >> Well, I don't I don't believe they
00:13:35
thought about it. I mean, one of the things that a lot of people are pointing out is is the involvement of Netanyahu
00:13:40
and uh the head of Saudi Arabia who publicly had said he was against this but privately was quite for it and
00:13:46
pressing for it. The linkage between the corruption with the Trump family and this coin operated presidency that I
00:13:52
talk about all the time is really very clear because most I would say they're
00:13:57
trying to come up with a story after the fact. Oh, it hasn't worked. It isn't an
00:14:01
endless war. Although it feels kind of like an endless war. It feels very Bushian, right? Did you you definitely
00:14:07
had echoes of that? It feel he I think he thought it was going to be like Venezuela, right? That it was like just
00:14:13
take that guy out. And by the way, he's in business with the Maduro administration. He didn't regime change
00:14:18
that place at all. Like speaking of regime change, >> this is much more complicated.
00:14:22
>> I agree, but I think he thought it was like that. >> No, I'm I'm agreeing with you. This is
00:14:26
not take out Maduro and and this is much more uh >> he just has has cowed the regime into
00:14:34
it. But it's the same regime in this case. It's really fascinating how they
00:14:38
have um put themselves into this economy in a way that's very hard to um to to
00:14:46
get them out. Right. Exact. You know, of course, this is their point of these very corrupt and I would say evil mullas
00:14:53
in in Iran. Um, but one of the things that's fascinating to me is one the the
00:14:58
continued corruption of Trump's family and Trump with with in this region and
00:15:03
second of all that he keeps calling have you noticed he's calling all I'm waiting
00:15:07
for a call from him myself like he called Jake Tapper he called um you know a bunch of John Carl he's called all the
00:15:13
regular old media people essentially or the people he he decries all the time and it seems like he's workshopping
00:15:20
different reasons like it's that's so >> he's trying to trying to figure
00:15:25
But there is again what could go right here. The most powerful instinct is survival. And what we pulled off here
00:15:33
and when I say we I actually think it was more the MOSA than than us. We effectively and I don't think people
00:15:39
really register how profound this was. Within about two hours we took out the equivalent of the president, the
00:15:47
secretary of defense and the head of the joint chiefs. >> Right. They were all in the same place.
00:15:52
But yes. and and then and what has got to be the strategic mistake of I would say the last five years other than the
00:16:00
decision by Hamas to go into Israel um geopolitically they started uh attacking civilian targets within the
00:16:08
>> idea fared Zakaria noted that this mistake >> I mean that's just okay you want to
00:16:14
isolate yourself from your from who should naturally be sympathetic to you now the the going back to this notion of
00:16:22
survival instinct At some point you got to think the next level down and I don't
00:16:25
know if it's 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000 or 150,000 IRGC say okay we too really
00:16:32
like our families in this thing called life maybe we need to come to some sort of accommodation
00:16:37
with with the US and the west so >> that would require as you know boots on
00:16:43
the ground and Trump didn't even roll that out again like this I here's what
00:16:47
really drives me crazy this idea they're like it's not endless war the other
00:16:50
presidents were just dumb It's the same thing. You you know they're they're just
00:16:55
trying very hard to spin it. And by the way, you you noted a poll that half Americans support it. It's actually not
00:17:00
the case. Many of the polls are showing 25%. You should >> I didn't say that. 55% of Republicans
00:17:05
and it's about 30% are indifferent. Now amongst Democrats, it's 7%. And I'm
00:17:11
amongst the 7% of Democrats who support this. But it's a little bit different
00:17:16
because okay what they're hoping for and maybe it's it's a it's a hallucination
00:17:20
that it's not boots on the ground that it's that it's sandals and sneakers and
00:17:23
slippers that the Iranian people >> right >> based on the problem is the 30,000
00:17:28
people that have been mowed down were the front lines they were the Marines they were the shock troops who were
00:17:32
willing to risk their lives >> right >> so the reality is kind of what the
00:17:36
offramp will be or how this plays out >> probably plays out in the next week in
00:17:41
terms of the Iranian populace's ability to fment and change on the ground because the American public does not
00:17:47
have any appetite for boots on the ground. But what I I talked to a senator this morning, I'm like, isn't a
00:17:52
reasonable offramp that you would say, okay, we're going to diminish their ability to wreak havoc to a point, you
00:17:58
know, 0.1. We're going to control the skies. We're going to diminish their
00:18:00
navy. We're not going to we're going to clear out their mind sweepers from the
00:18:03
Straits of Hormuz. We're going to absolutely ensure there is zero capability nuclear. And then we're going
00:18:08
to declare >> you said was obliterated in June. Just let's point that out.
00:18:11
>> Fair point. Why did again more inconsistency. Why did we need to go back in to to diminish our nuclear
00:18:17
capacity when you said it was done 7 months ago? >> So there is inconsistent messaging.
00:18:23
>> But I think the >> in my opinion the opportunities here to diminish the capacity to continue to
00:18:30
levy this depravity and oppression amongst its populace and potentially liberate one of the great cultures in
00:18:36
civilization's history that sits on unbelievable economic potential economic
00:18:40
prosperity. it there is a real potential upside here. >> You know where else there's a potential
00:18:45
of upside is Ukraine. Same thing like this. So what's really interesting to hear is he yells at Europe for not
00:18:51
pulling their fair share in defense. Fine. I I can see that argument even though he makes it in the crude and
00:18:57
repulsive way. Uh why isn't uh why isn't Saudi Arabia and Israel paying for this?
00:19:03
We're doing their cop duty and we happen to have a corrupt cop on the beat. >> Oh, Israel sacrif sacrifice. I'm talking
00:19:10
about you don't hear the same language, right? Saudi Arabia, if Saudi Arabia
00:19:14
wanted this to happen, they should pay for it. Like, if that's really the thing, why do I have to pay as an
00:19:19
American taxpayer $270 million for three planes? Like, that kind of stuff. And so, and why
00:19:25
aren't why isn't this money deployed elsewhere that I think isn't our not me,
00:19:29
I'm not running this show, but like why isn't Ukraine the same thing? Like
00:19:34
that's that's what's really interesting because there's a country that is full
00:19:38
of like economic talk about economic opportunities. Same thing. Let me focus you on the toll on the US economy
00:19:45
because all these like a a free well first of all every attempt at regime change in the Middle East has failed
00:19:50
almost miserably for the United States or or a version of regime change Afghanistan everywhere everywhere we go.
00:19:58
Um >> well I did to be fair I did work in the Balkans. We have had successful
00:20:01
interventions in Kuwait. We successfully repelled the difference there is we did
00:20:05
it multilaterally which >> that's right >> he's stupid to do here already Britain
00:20:09
our closest ally is humming and hawing about letting us use their airfields yeah
00:20:13
>> he wants to go it alone which is stupid anyway I interrupted you talking about
00:20:16
the economics here >> so I want to know about the e the effect on the economy because one of the things
00:20:20
because these when people start a war it tends to be in the 60s period right it's
00:20:26
25 and I get that the democrats don't like it but in a 25 is a bad place to start when you're doing a war which if
00:20:33
you remember remember the stud Scud and everyone being vaguely excited when they
00:20:37
were doing the I mean my even myself which is grotesque because I I I now have children I'm like oh no no no but
00:20:45
um talk about the toll in the economy because every and and the MAGA people green um Carlson
00:20:53
more even more heinous people are talking about this is not what we voted for right this is not and and they're
00:21:00
trying very desperately to pretend it's not an endless war. It's whatever word
00:21:04
they're going to use um is not going to work with these people. They they he's
00:21:09
already struck seven countries, seven events. Like he's done more war like they it was interesting because Hillary
00:21:15
Clinton was so prey about exactly what he would do here. He seems to like and have an appetite for military action
00:21:22
because everything's going so badly for him. So talk about the effect on the US
00:21:26
economy, oil prices, right? inflation um more danger for the US in terms of of attacks on our our own soil from the
00:21:35
Iranians. The CR I mean if you back these Iranians into a corner they may do something really dire here in this
00:21:41
country. What is the toll in the US economy and let me uh add in that people were using this word to cash in on
00:21:48
online betting markets which was repulsive. it. Uh, Kalshi reportedly saw $36 million in bet volume related to
00:21:54
whether or not there will be regime change in Iran. On Poly Market, 529 million was traded on contracts tied to
00:22:00
the timing of the strikes and some of them seem rather suspect. Poly Market defended its decision to allow betting
00:22:06
on the Star War saying it's invaluable source of news and answers. It feels like profiteering to me. Um, but talk a
00:22:12
little bit about the impact on the economy. What what's next if under think of three two scenarios? what's next for
00:22:20
the economy. >> Just just to go in reverse order, I actually would argue that that we have
00:22:26
diminished I mean you have what is um what was the superpower in the region with their proxies Hezbollah, Hamas, the
00:22:33
Houthis wreaking havoc economically and in terms of oppression of different people in the region and their
00:22:41
organizing principle was death to Israel and death to America. And I would argue
00:22:45
that even if we don't have the regime change or a quoteunquote liberated uh capitalist westfriendly Iran that their
00:22:53
ability to strike at us and our proxies overseas and our bases is actually been diminished that that they're not now we
00:23:01
need to be more worried. I think we need to actually >> be less worried. There are two scenarios
00:23:06
here. One scenario is we end up in another forever war that explodes our deficits and we keep incrementally
00:23:11
making excuses for you know trying to impose democracy which is an oxymoron and oil prices the straight of horm gets
00:23:19
gets blocked off and oil prices skyrocket now to a certain extent if you wanted to be really mavavelian that
00:23:25
doesn't hurt us that much because we are energy independent who this really is
00:23:29
hurting both Venezuela and Iran is China 80% of Iran's oil was going to China the
00:23:36
same with Venezuela. So, we can survive an oil shock, but you could have you could have an increase in deficits of a
00:23:43
forever war, uh disruption in supply chain, uh straining our straining our relationships with the allies. I
00:23:51
personally think there's more asymmetric upside where we unlock um uh stronger oil flows, better
00:23:57
technology, a potential trading partner for Europe, for Europe and the US. And I
00:24:03
would argue I would bet that I believe in 6 months that oil prices will be lower uh than they are today. Now to
00:24:10
your point about cost and economics, I am sympathetic to the left's view, many
00:24:15
people on the left, that these forever wars and foreign intervention and imperialist
00:24:20
imposing our own values on other cultures and other nations is not only uh wrong, it is just really
00:24:26
expensive. I'm sympathetic to that. What I'm not sympathetic to, >> can I make a correction? It's Charlie
00:24:31
Kirk talked about this. The right, this has been an animating issue. >> I was just about to get there, Cara. The
00:24:37
right has a very strong isolationist spent. What is inconsistent for me? It is consistent to say, "Let's focus on
00:24:45
let's focus on our problems domestically. Let's spend money domestically. Let's not run up deficits
00:24:50
with tax cuts and forever wars in a macho military. and let's stay out of other people's knitting recognizing that
00:24:55
we respect the right their right to to do what you know to govern themselves and and and
00:25:01
shape their own future. What is totally inconsistent is the far right or the rights isolationist rhetoric while
00:25:07
approving a $1.1 trillion military budget. Because my view is the only rationale for having a $1.1 trillion
00:25:14
military budget is quite frankly is if at a on regular basis you're going to go
00:25:19
on your toes because if we don't want to get involved in this kind of foreign
00:25:23
adventures or misadventures, whatever you want to characterize it, there's no
00:25:26
risk of Canada invading us. Let's take our military budget down to 300 billion
00:25:30
and pay off our deficit. So I've never understood the rights fascination with
00:25:34
ridiculous military spending and then this isolationist complexion. I personally think the upside over the
00:25:40
medium and the long term here economically with a peaceful Middle East once its primary sponsor of terror is
00:25:46
neutered here. I think it actually I think this over the medium and the long term could be really good for Europe.
00:25:52
And if we could figure out a way to end the war in Ukraine, figure out a way to have a neutral west. uh Iran, I think
00:26:00
you're going to see the largest tax cut in history because I think the flows of
00:26:03
oil will take g will cut oil probably in half and you'll have an incredible trading partner with what is one of the
00:26:09
most productive capitalist in many ways societies in history and that's the Persian
00:26:15
people. >> Yeah, that is true. I I understand one of the things that troubles me is this
00:26:21
the one is that he really doesn't seem to have a plan and he's the president,
00:26:25
right? and that people within his administration, >> he'll call you and ask you for your
00:26:28
plan. >> My plan is for you to step down, but then I would get JD Vance, but that's my
00:26:34
suggestion. Um, and you should go off and spend all the money you've stolen from the American people. But, um, but
00:26:41
one of the um, one of the things that I think about a lot is what that that this
00:26:46
is done in such a haphazard way without the involvement of Congress, right? That
00:26:50
really is troublesome. and that these these Republicans who were against these things immediately get in line. Now
00:26:58
look, Lindsey Graham, that southern bell, has always been wanting to do this, right? And now he wants to go from
00:27:04
he is a southern bell. >> And uh and he's uh he's he's wanted to
00:27:09
do this. He wants to do Cuba next. Let's do Cuba next. Right? That's the whole
00:27:12
thing. This is also he just in his mistaken >> Cuba isn't blinding its women. It's not
00:27:18
hanging teenage girls and then sanctioning rape of them. He said Cuba. He did. And
00:27:23
>> yeah, I agree. No, I'm I'm saying that makes in my opinion, as much as a war
00:27:27
hawk as I am, I see no logical reason to invade Cuba. >> Well, I think that's next. It seems like
00:27:32
they're just going to get bored over here and come over here. But this is something Lindsey Graham has wanted
00:27:36
forever in his mis uh in his endless and sad attempt to be more masculine in some
00:27:42
fashion. So, fine, fine, Lindsay. That's fine. But one of the things that really
00:27:47
drives me crazy is these people are so um they shift these people say one thing one week and then shift it the next
00:27:55
week. Like look the I know you like to attack the left but they're sticking to
00:27:59
their guns on these kind of things. They're still >> I like to attack what?
00:28:02
>> Oh, the left a lot. But the right just shifts it. Like it's like we're against
00:28:06
it. We're against it. We're against it. Charlie Kirk said let's not be dragged
00:28:10
into this by so and so. It's let's focus here. Okay, then let's cut our military
00:28:14
budget to 300 billion. >> I get it. I get it. But I just don't see why they don't they shift this way. It's
00:28:20
really it's it's sad because I like when there's argument over what we should do
00:28:26
here in a way that everybody gets >> and it's meant to be a discourse in the
00:28:30
Congress. I agree with that. >> Barry Goldwater Barry Goldwater called this in the 70s. He said that we have
00:28:36
become dangerously used to a slow leak of power from from the co-equal branches of government and Congress to the
00:28:42
president. And what kept that mostly in check was a series of norms where the president would go and inform the Senate
00:28:48
intelligence committee or the the defense, >> you know, the the people in the the
00:28:53
people on the defense committee that he would give them a heads up. He'd invite
00:28:56
them to the White House and say, "This is what we're thinking. What do you
00:28:59
think?" Those norms are gone. And so there's got to be unless there is structural reform around what it means
00:29:05
to have co-equal brown. Republicans are resigning from Congress because they're
00:29:08
like why the am I here? >> Yeah. Yeah. >> The speaker of the house Yeah.
00:29:13
>> is not Mike Johnson. He's the speaker of the white house. He's there to run rough
00:29:16
shaw >> over people in the minority party are used to getting over. They're used to having no
00:29:23
power. But Republicans are like, "Let me get this. I stuck around to be in the
00:29:27
majority such that I could represent my people and get policies through and I'm
00:29:30
not even being consulted on this >> No. And on the on the Democratic, I'd
00:29:34
say centrist conservative. I have never seen Senator Warner who I consider pretty cons pretty like moderate more
00:29:40
than I mean I think he's often we often disagree on a lot of stuff. He was incandescent. I you know because he he
00:29:47
sees these things. He knows he has so much experience in Senate intelligence etc etc. And to watch people who had
00:29:53
said the very opposite shift was really something because at the very bottom of this, it puts people's lives at risk
00:30:02
unnecessarily. And not just American troops, which is terrible. It's people on the ground there, Iranian citizens,
00:30:10
which American uh troops and I worry about American, you know, people attacking here. And it just creates a
00:30:19
situation that when you there's just a this guy this guy's got to have a better
00:30:24
reason than to call someone and have a different reason every minute. And we'll
00:30:27
see its effect on the the stock market's not loving this at all. Um but we'll
00:30:32
see. We'll see where it goes. >> But you brought up Kelshi. >> Yeah.
00:30:34
>> And what's fascinating about these things is they tend to be right that
00:30:37
there's a wisdom of the crowds. And when you have Senator Warner who has just had
00:30:43
a lot, this is not his first rodeo. has had a ton of presidents and joint chiefs
00:30:48
come before him and explain their plans. And when you have uh Senator Mark Kelly
00:30:54
who's actually flown these missions, if you don't if you don't take advantage of
00:30:59
the benefit of their insight, even if they don't agree with you, you're not
00:31:03
taking advantage of the greatest depth the greatest the greatest IP depth of knowledge and experience in military
00:31:09
history. And that's amongst quite frankly many of our members of Congress. If if you're not bringing Senator
00:31:15
Representative Seth Molton in and saying, "Hey, when you were on the ground in Iraq, I mean, instead we're
00:31:22
we're consulting with a senator from Florida, a former Fox TV host >> who was
00:31:30
>> and a reality game show host. They're making these decisions >> and and the FBI is being run by a guy
00:31:36
who likes to party in the middle of a possible terror terrorist action in this country. We're they're we're they're
00:31:43
just going to make and this is I always like to try and reverse engineer to a a personal learning here. One of my
00:31:50
biggest flaws biggest flaws as a man is I thought that masculinity and leadership was making a quick survey of
00:31:57
the situation and then making a decision and then it was my job to talk everyone
00:32:01
into my decision. No, it's not. Leadership is listening and occasionally going, "Oh, I got it wrong. We
00:32:09
need to switch course." I don't make now, I didn't learn this until I was
00:32:13
literally 50. I don't make a big decision personally, financially, professionally without talking to three
00:32:20
or four really smart people because you can't read the label from inside of the bottle. And the US
00:32:26
Congress is full of some of the most impressive, experienced, smartest people in the world.
00:32:31
>> And beyond that, there's people >> and also they have this incredible task
00:32:35
of representing their constituency to not check in with them. I I think Senator Warner is ep apoplelectic
00:32:41
because he's like, "For God's sakes, we can save you from yourself."
00:32:45
>> That's right. That's right. He wasn't out of ego. I just I've never seen him
00:32:48
do that. It was really interesting. Anyway, we have to move on. This is a developing story. We'll see what
00:32:53
happens. This seems like a very, as Gavin Newsome said, a chaotic White House. It might be trying to um get us
00:32:59
away from the Epstein files or other issues at home. Um we didn't even talk about the distraction, but we need to
00:33:05
move on. Uh we'll go on a quick break. We come back. Trump targets Anthropic,
00:33:09
another incredible tech company in what former Trump official calls attempted corporate murder.
00:33:15
>> Support for the show comes from BetterHelp. This International Women's
00:33:19
Day, BetterHelp wants to remind all the mothers, grandmothers, aunts, and sisters of the world that you deserve to
00:33:24
take care of yourself as much as you take care of people around you. If you want help getting connected with a
00:33:29
therapist, you could try BetterHelp. BetterHelp does the initial matching work so you can focus on your therapy
00:33:34
goals. All you need to do is fill out a short questionnaire that helps identify your needs and preferences and
00:33:39
BetterHelp matches you with a licensed therapist operating under a strict code of conduct. After 12 years plus of
00:33:45
experience, BetterHel says they have an industryleading match fulfillment rate. And if you aren't happy with your match,
00:33:50
you can switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored recommendations. With over 30,000
00:33:55
therapists, BetterHel is the world's largest online therapy platform, having
00:33:58
served over 6 million people globally. And out of over 1.7 million client reviews, BetterHel's average rating is a
00:34:04
4.5 out of five for a live session. Your emotional well-being matters. Find support and feel lighter in therapy.
00:34:12
Sign up and get 10% off at betterhelp.com/pivot. That's betterhp.com/pivot. >> Scott, we're back. President Trump
00:34:20
ordered federal agencies to stop using anthropic after it did not come uh to a deal with the Pentagon on safety. The
00:34:26
Defense Department will phase out the use of anthropic products over the next 6 months, which will, I will tell you,
00:34:31
hurt national security. Anthropic plans to challenge a supply chain designation in court. Good for them. When it comes
00:34:36
to the app store, Anthropic is winning. Claude is the number one spot in the Apple's free apps as we tape. Anthropic
00:34:42
also faced a major outage on Monday with the company saying it's been dealing
00:34:46
with quote unprecedented demand. Uh, meanwhile, Open AI, of course, Sam ever the opportunist. Open AAI Sam Alman
00:34:54
reached an agreement with the Pentagon. The company claims it found a way to ensure its technologies would adhere to
00:34:58
its safety principles by installing technical guardrails. However, when Sam Alman was asked on asked whether he
00:35:04
worried about there be future disputes with the Pentagon over what's legal, he
00:35:07
responded, "Yes, I am." "Oh my god, Sam, I got to tell you, you need to stop
00:35:11
talking." A former Trump official called Enthropic order attempted corporate
00:35:15
murder. Um it's uh it's the backdrop of OpenAI raising 110 billion its latest
00:35:20
funding round, including $50 billion from Amazon and $30 billion from both Nvidia and Soft Bank. in these continue
00:35:26
roundtpping kind of deals. Um I I I I read a lot this weekend about this and one of the people involved was a guy
00:35:34
named Emil Michael who used to be an executive at Uber who was possibly one of the most bullying and awful
00:35:40
executives and full of all manner of um bad behaviors. uh when there I I he left
00:35:47
the company. We wrote some stories of this thing he was involved in that was just so um not a good behavior I would
00:35:55
say. Um I have spent time with him. He's a he he was the one that was was was
00:36:00
negotiating this. Uh not a surprise. Um he kept calling Dario a Modi from anthropic godlike god. He thinks he's
00:36:08
god or whatever. I've never met anyone who thinks he's god more than a Michael.
00:36:12
And he's usually a toad to more powerful people. in this case, Pete Hegsath. Um,
00:36:17
anyway, uh, it seems a ridiculous overreach on the behalf of government. Probably anthropic will win. I think it
00:36:24
probably will benefit from this as you've noted many times. Uh, any more thoughts on this? I don't think we're
00:36:29
any safer as a people for having done this. >> I don't I think what people miss is that
00:36:36
over the last 12 months out of 23 markets, we're the 21st best performing or the third worst.
00:36:42
>> Yep. And what has changed? We've had incredible innovation. >> Is up 50,000. Good.
00:36:48
>> Sorry. >> We've had inc. We still have incredible innovation. We dominate the most
00:36:52
tectonic shift in technology. The thing that's changing is I believe we're
00:36:57
experiencing a rotation out of US stocks and a compression of multiples. And the
00:37:02
reason why is the following. The underpinnings of why so much capital flows into the US from every other
00:37:08
market in the world is our incredible IP developed mostly through funding of research at universities. An incredibly
00:37:14
risk aggressive culture based on immigrants who take huge risk to get here. Um uh and also I think more than
00:37:22
anything probably it or chicken and egg it attracts the deepest pools of capital
00:37:28
in history. There's $5 million in venture capital for every startup in the US. There's only 1 million for every
00:37:34
startup in Europe. Anthropic started six years ago. If it was in Europe, it'd be
00:37:39
one of the 10 most valuable companies. But when government starts selectively punishing and rewarding companies based
00:37:46
on political favoritism, that capital gets scared and starts withdrawing. Because why do you invest in open AI or
00:37:54
Anthropic if you don't know who you're waking up next to in terms of its
00:37:58
ability to raise capital based on the blood sugar level of whoever's president? So this is not only the wrong
00:38:05
thing to do and makes us feel less safe and is probably illegal, it's going to
00:38:08
hit your 401k, folks. in even in places like the Gulf that are run by autocracies, they have a real respect
00:38:16
for systemic laws in the market cuz they recognize the moment they start with companies based on their own who's
00:38:23
in or out of political favor, >> it's Russia >> which has no stock market because nobody
00:38:29
wants to invest and then find out the CEO got a call from the wrong person or pissed got on the wrong list and is all
00:38:37
of a sudden out of business. So even in China, people I think they learned their
00:38:43
lesson lesson a little bit with DD where they got angry at DD and basically crushed DD. They're now you know they
00:38:49
have a lot of respect for for essentially government u regulatory bodies consistent application of rule of
00:38:55
law trying not to play favorites. So this will the immediate reaction will be okay they're wrong this is illegal fine.
00:39:05
And also from a commercial standpoint, I've been saying for the last year that
00:39:09
someone has an incredible commercial opportunity to say enough, >> right? >> We're the good guys. We do not buy into
00:39:16
this. If this if this costs us money in the short term, fine. But the very American values that gave us so much
00:39:22
opportunity are under attack and we're just not down with it. And I don't I
00:39:26
don't know if you remember me saying this. I said 6 months ago the biggest opportunity for for Nike which is
00:39:30
trading at a 10-year low was to run a bunch of ads saying we're about American
00:39:36
values and that what's going on here is wrong. What's interesting is the corp
00:39:40
corporate America needed a hero and it looks like it's Daario. >> I know it's interesting.
00:39:45
>> What's really interesting here is I think and and it's finally happening.
00:39:49
They're shaping up to be Joe Frasier and Muhammad Ali here. And I think that
00:39:53
Dario is being very smart. And I think it's up to us and the media or progressive progressives and I'm
00:39:59
obviously stitching this into the rises and unsubscribe thinking. I think it's
00:40:03
time to start figuring out if there's a way to be more commercially supportive
00:40:07
of anthropic and less supportive of Open AI. Basically, OpenAI has decided to enable and be complicit in the Trump
00:40:14
administration's efforts and Daario and Anthropic have said, "No, we're we're
00:40:18
not going along here. We're not going to be intimidated. This is quite frankly,
00:40:22
Cara, I have been waiting for this matchup for years." >> I know. Yeah, I know you have. Let me
00:40:26
say I don't I don't know Dario Emodi. I don't actually. And he might be
00:40:30
arrogant, which is in line with most people in tech. That may be true, but I I do know Emil Michael who has been who
00:40:37
did negotiate this. And I do know David Sachs and both of them are Aryan operators, ceaseless bullies. Um, and
00:40:45
and anxious toadies to the powerful in my experience of covering them. Um, Sam Alman is much a little more complex, but
00:40:53
he's a gifted opportunist, which doesn't make him that different from anybody in
00:40:56
Silicon Valley. Um, and is has has made his has made his choice here, right? That's he wants the business. And so I I
00:41:06
it's a really knowing the characters involved here. And then on the top of it, you have an idiot like uh a
00:41:12
like uh Pete Hegsath who doesn't know what's happening, communicating to
00:41:16
someone he who's even more moronic on these issues, which is Donald Trump who
00:41:19
I I think just I suspect Saxs is whispering in his ear and Neil Michael's whispering in Heg's ear. And this is all
00:41:28
a Silicon Valley beef right between and among these people. a meal was was let was had to leave Uber under very um not
00:41:37
great circumstances uh was pushed out. Um I think all these people is payback for other people. It's just there's a
00:41:44
lot of Silicon Valley drama happening here and I don't know Darod I don't I
00:41:49
don't I really don't. It's unusual that I don't and I've asked for interviews
00:41:52
with him. He has not agreed to do an interview with me. Uh thanks Chris uh Nely. Um but I I do and he did a very
00:42:01
good interview with CBS News actually. Um which I thought was interesting. >> He handled himself really well.
00:42:06
>> He handled himself really well. >> He he starched his hat wide in that
00:42:09
interview. >> Yeah, it was a good interview. Um but one of the things that I know is the
00:42:15
people on the other side of him are very people I covered for years who are just
00:42:20
not good. Uh not not um how can I say this nicely? Uh they're they're the
00:42:27
worst I of of the people I had to cover over the many years. I have to say they're literally the worst. And uh and
00:42:34
and to see them in these positions of power is making these decisions and hurting a company that just doesn't want
00:42:40
to do business with them. And actually Michael tweeted out against Emodi weeks ago. You know, it's so unprofessional as
00:42:48
a government like it's so it's such based in beefs that were happening elsewhere. And Emil, I'm really I had
00:42:55
ended up having drinks with him after he was sort of drumed out of Uber and he he
00:43:00
said something to me. It was so strange. He goes, "Well, I'm so glad we can be
00:43:03
friends." And I remember saying to him, "We're not friends. I think what you did
00:43:06
there is terrible. I don't know what where you operate, but let him just do what he wants. And don't don't bring
00:43:13
your stupid insecure beefs out on the thing. And it will benefit Anthropic. It will I think he I think he's handling
00:43:20
himself. And he may be arrogant. He may have a god clumps. I don't know. I don't
00:43:24
know. But he's certainly not like these people. And in that case, the bar is
00:43:28
low. I've had my say. >> I think it's a big opportunity. I think I think Americans and consumers are so
00:43:33
ready to vote with their pocketbooks. And >> Sam I don't think Sam has acquitted
00:43:38
himself. Well, um I'm not going to have advertising. We would never do porn.
00:43:42
Well, I need to raise money. Never mind. And the largest customer in the world, which is the US government, needs to
00:43:49
have a series of systemic laws that don't that these are the rules you get to play by. And full stop. Everyone is
00:43:56
entitled to and obligated to the same set of rules, not who who you like or who you don't like. And which kind of
00:44:03
leads into our next story, which is Netflix and Paramount, >> right? Netflix. Speaking of that, Scott,
00:44:10
let's take a quick break. When we come back, Netflix emerges as a winner after
00:44:13
losing the Warner Brothers battle. >> Support for the show comes from Vanta.
00:44:18
If you're a business owner, you're not imagining things. Risk and regulation
00:44:21
are on the rise, and customers now want proof of security before they commit. Earning that trust is critical to
00:44:26
closing deals, but it's often costly, complex, and timeintensive. Vanta says
00:44:31
that's the challenge they've designed to solve. Vanta automates your compliance
00:44:35
process to bring compliance, risk, and customer trust together in one AI powered platform. They automate the
00:44:40
process of achieving and maintaining compliance with over 35 security and privacy frameworks including SOCK 2, ISO
00:44:46
2701 and HIPPA. This helps companies get compliant fast and remain compliant, opening doors to next level growth
00:44:52
opportunities and freeing up valuable time. So if you're tired of sifting through old audits and spreadsheets, you
00:44:57
can get a system that's always working in the background, keeping you compliant, reducing risk, and helping
00:45:02
your business scale fast with confidence. Vanta says that companies including RAMP and Ryder spend 82% less
00:45:09
time on audits with Vanta. That's not just faster compliance, it's more time
00:45:13
for growth. You can get started at vanta.com/pivot. That's vta.com/pivot. vanta.com/pivot.
00:45:24
Scott, we're back. Netflix may have lost the battle for Warner Brothers, but it's
00:45:28
looking like a winner. The company stock surged 14% of it formally exited the bidding war. It also now has 2.8 8
00:45:34
billion in the bank after Paramount paid the Warner Brothers breakup fee. Went after the plan all along was to saddle
00:45:39
Paramount with debt, drive up the price, and walk away with more money. Ted Sando
00:45:43
said there are easier ways to make $2.8 billion. Very funny. He's also trashing
00:45:48
it so beautifully. I have to say what a pro the way like it's ridiculously expensive. He's dropping all sorts of
00:45:54
bone m that Bloomberg interview you did. Um I'm hoping to do an interview with
00:45:58
him relatively soon. He noted the Paramount deal is dependent on cost cutting leading to less production, less
00:46:04
people working. He's 100% right. On the Paramount front, CEO David Ellison, who
00:46:09
got strafed by Barry Diller as a stunt pilot in a speech, another thing, just announced that Paramount Plus and HBO
00:46:16
Max will be combined into one streaming service. He also said there would be a lot less, I think, a lot of cuts, $6
00:46:22
billion in cuts, that he can quickly delever it. Nobody believes him or thinks he's capable of doing it. uh
00:46:28
Sarandos had talked more about 16 billion. Let me just tell you Hollywood uh look out below. This is this is look
00:46:36
I don't think Ellison means to be incorrect but he is incorrect about what's about to happen here because the
00:46:41
pressures on this much debt. I talked to as you know Bill Cohen went because you
00:46:46
weren't around last weekend but this much debt is enormous amounts of debt. It's like crazy. They don't have enough
00:46:53
um income to they have barely enough income so they can't grow. they have to
00:46:58
cut. There's going to be there's obvious duplication that they will cut. But even
00:47:03
more than that, anything they say at this point is just absolutely untrue. It's just and I again I don't think they
00:47:10
mean it that way. I think they believe it that they can, you know, turn um into a into chicken into chicken
00:47:19
salad. But most smart math math people don't think they can do it, especially
00:47:25
with competitors like Netflix breathing down and YouTube breathing down their neck. Your thoughts?
00:47:30
>> Well, I I think I've been consistent on this. The biggest losers are the
00:47:33
creative community. Yeah. >> They don't realize it. >> I don't know. Half a million of them
00:47:38
just got lined up and shot. >> Yeah. Yeah, I mean they're they're the
00:47:42
amount of AI slop we're going to see come out of Paramount and Warner trying
00:47:47
to pass for, you know, great breakthrough content. It's just going to be, like I said, you know, in space, no
00:47:55
one can hear you scream. Oh, trust me, you're going to hear a lot of people scream. And the biggest winner, hands
00:48:02
down, um, and I told Ted this. I said I if you walk from this, you realize your stock's
00:48:10
going to go up 10%. I was wrong. In the last 5 days, the stock's up 30%. >> Yeah. Back to other levels. Yeah.
00:48:17
>> Okay. So, let's look at it this way. They quote unquote technically save $120
00:48:22
billion by not acquiring it and their stocks up a hundred billion. Cara, they could go buy Disney right now.
00:48:31
>> Yeah. >> For walking from Warner Brothers. So, and if I were them and I was Ted and I'd
00:48:37
be pissed off, I'd be firing up my lobbyists and my lawyers and be like, delay an obvious make it create so much
00:48:44
havoc for this deal to close. And by the way, every studio, every creative, they're all going to want to go to work
00:48:50
for one place. Okay. Do I want if I'm pitching I just had my uh latest book option for a series and for a
00:48:58
documentary, which means absolutely nothing I've figured out in Hollywood. >> Your man, your notes on being a man.
00:49:04
>> Yeah. for an original scripted series and a documentary. Anyways, >> think of it as an R-rated Wonder Years
00:49:09
is how I've been pitching it. >> Who's playing me? >> Erve Vill
00:49:16
>> uh uh Erve Villiches in a little tiny sou. I see Shalom plays >> with a with a puppy German Shepherd.
00:49:23
>> No, Shalom work. He looks like a teenage boy, too. >> Anyways, uh
00:49:27
>> Shalom. So, these guys, the amount of money, um, let me put this way. Say, say you're in the
00:49:36
creative community and you have the hottest script or you're the hottest actor and you have offers from from the
00:49:42
Paramount Studio, from Warner, or from Netflix, who are you absolutely going to pick?
00:49:48
>> Netflix. >> Oh my god, they're going to >> every day of the week and twice on
00:49:52
Sunday. They look like heroes. You all hated Netflix. Now you're going to love
00:49:56
them. It's really and and by the way, when the Democrats come into power, that's going to be good for
00:50:02
>> HBO just lost 30% of its value because HBO's asset was it always was able to
00:50:06
punch above its weight class. It did two billion in content relative to Netflix's
00:50:10
18 billion. But if there was a show people were talking about around the water cooler, whether it was Girls or
00:50:16
Euphoria or Game of Thrones or Succession, it usually was HBO because HBO's culture and ability when I'm
00:50:24
talking a lot about me, my favorite subject, but when we pitched my big tech series, everybody, all the creatives and
00:50:31
all the stars, they all wanted to go with HBO. >> Yeah. >> They love Netflix, but if we had our
00:50:36
choice, >> Yeah. >> we would have gone with HBO. Guess what? That just changed overnight. completely.
00:50:41
I wouldn't do a thing with them. I have to say I've got some shows I I don't
00:50:45
have no interest. >> What? So they can figure out how to produce it for a third of the budget
00:50:48
using AI? >> Yeah, you. Like and also one of the things that's interesting is that there
00:50:53
there's there was an interesting movement. And also I mean I think the CNN part of it is a smaller part of it.
00:50:59
It still is going to be a lot of news, right? It's still because it's CNN the
00:51:03
merger and they've already made a mess of CBS. Um but they're going to make a
00:51:08
bigger mess of CNN. I I have heard from so many HBO people that are like like was everything in every like a
00:51:16
dozen HBO people CNN is losing its ever love and mind right as they should and they're like they're like what do we do
00:51:24
Cara and I'm like I don't know I'm not going to be here so it's not like
00:51:29
I was like I don't know what to tell you but you know I wouldn't work for those
00:51:32
hacks. Um, but one of the things uh that's interesting is the idea that that
00:51:37
Netflix takes a little bit of this money and hires like the like Anderson Cooper
00:51:41
and the best of them and creates a little news service. I >> they should like a really good one.
00:51:48
>> I talked to the woman who runs content at and at and Netflix and I said I have
00:51:51
an idea. >> Bella Bella. >> Bella. Yeah. >> Start something called the hour and hire
00:51:55
the twothirds of the people from 60 Minutes that would like to leave right now. >> Yeah. and have a show, weekly show
00:52:02
called the hour. >> I'm like, I'll tell you who's good and who's not. I like I
00:52:06
>> You don't think all of those people are looking for a way to get off the get on
00:52:09
the last helicopter out of Saigon right now? >> Yeah. And a lot of them want to be
00:52:12
entrepreneurial. It's really interesting. They they do see the need to change out. I mean, obviously the
00:52:17
economics of a lot of broadcast and cable television is out of whack with the revenues clearly all through the
00:52:24
industry. By the way, >> Netflix is up 30%. Netflix. >> Netflix should
00:52:28
>> The market has decided that Netflix is worth a hundred billion dollars more
00:52:33
>> more by >> without >> Yeah. >> Warner Brothers, >> you could spend a very little amount of
00:52:37
money putting together a really interesting news offering. At the same time, you know, as obviously CBS is
00:52:44
going to go is going right in a really weak sauce way. It's really kind of wimpy, right, and stupid, right? But,
00:52:50
uh, I mean, if you're going to be right, go all the way to Fox. That's my
00:52:53
feeling. like and and it's it's it's an ever dying audience by the way. Um and I
00:52:59
mean my mom's is a average listener essentially. She's 92. Um but one of the
00:53:04
things that I think will help >> Fox is doing really well actually. >> Yeah, it has. That's right. You're not
00:53:07
going to get you're not catching Fox. >> Here's a crazy stat. Especially more
00:53:10
moderates watch Fox and CNN right now. >> Well, I'm not surprised. It's anyway one
00:53:15
of the because the news part is I mean like Jennifer and there's several people
00:53:19
who are quite good over there but um there's a lot of great people at CNN and
00:53:23
let me be clear there's a lot of great reporters throughout that organization
00:53:26
and they do a great job. People tend to focus on Scott Jennings at night when there's lots of people but
00:53:32
>> you mean I feel stupider with Abby Phillips. >> Okay, stop sound stop Jennings is the
00:53:37
problem over there. So >> but no CNN is the problem for putting him on and having crossfire. that that
00:53:42
show is but I'm saying there's a lot more to CNN than that show. So it gets a
00:53:47
lot of attention but one of the things that I think is interesting is it really opens up an opportunity for MS now
00:53:53
because it it they're they're by themselves over there on the left like it's a great business right like it's
00:53:59
just it's sort of like the fox of the left and so they have a huge opportunity
00:54:04
it seems to me >> if you are in love with tra this I'm not >> you are in love with traditional media
00:54:08
this is who it's an opportunity for it's an opportunity small opportunity
00:54:12
>> for Bill Cohen and and and Ben Thompson and Cara Swisser. >> I know that
00:54:17
>> you're about to see a massive diffusion of power from these industrial brands.
00:54:21
>> It's already happening. >> The means of production is way too
00:54:23
expensive to all these little media company startups and substacks and podcasts.
00:54:28
>> I agree. >> And newsletters and this all this hand ringing that, oh no, the Washington Post
00:54:33
can't go away. Doesn't matter, folks. Y >> those people are going to find their own
00:54:37
little niche media companies and they're going to punch above their weight class and
00:54:42
they're not going to be saddled by the blood sugar level of a guy on human growth hormone and I just think MS now
00:54:47
by itself being I think CNN should have been independent would have given an opportunity to be innovative. They have
00:54:53
an opportunity to be innovative. They do. They absolutely do. And so that's a
00:54:57
good thing for them because they're they're all by themselves over there.
00:54:59
>> This is the best use of CNN. We have an iconic popular Gavin Newsome and he
00:55:04
stacks his cabinet with CNN anchors. Dana Bash would make a great vice president.
00:55:09
>> Yeah. Yeah. See, Dana does a great job. There's a lot of really great there's
00:55:13
amazing people. >> Michael, I think he could be secretary. >> Anderson, I think, does a good job.
00:55:18
Every single Caitlyn Collins I have so much admiration for her. >> She can be ambassador to the EU. Okay.
00:55:24
Literally, I can pull I can pull together a cabinet that looks like the Kennedy administration from CNN
00:55:30
anchors >> and it would be so much higher than Pete Dag on any >> think about it. Janine Pro that's I mean
00:55:37
look who are competing. I'm down I am down for networks' cabinets at this
00:55:41
point. I think the CNN people are so impressive. >> Yes. >> But they're all about to and they've
00:55:47
been doing this last two years. I'm thinking about starting a podcast because they're having the uncomfortable
00:55:51
conversation. I used to make 7 million a year. >> Not just CNN, it's throughout the It's
00:55:57
all the media people. They I >> People anchor off the most money they've
00:56:00
ever made and think that's what I'm worth. No one ever thinks to themselves,
00:56:03
"Wow, I'm overpaid right now." Guess what? There's a I can produce I can
00:56:07
>> I can prove to you statistically at any moment in time there's a 50% chance you
00:56:11
are overpaid right now relative to the market. >> I I'm not I'm not favoring media. I just
00:56:16
think it's I always see it as an opportunity. I always see as an like you can still do well. It it's a good
00:56:22
business. It makes a lot of profits. You could do well here and it could give you
00:56:25
an o it gives an opportunity for MS now to have a lane all to itself. And I think that's always a good thing. Always
00:56:31
a good thing. And >> there's Ms. Now stars. Rachel, she's only one day a week.
00:56:35
>> Rachel, there's a whole bunch over there. But let me say Rebecca Cutler is
00:56:38
Stephanie. There's a whole bunch of people over there that are >> very talented.
00:56:41
>> Uh and they're they're hiring a lot of great reporters and Rebecca Cutler who
00:56:45
you know know about is amazing. like she's she's she was heard me at CNN plus
00:56:49
she did at the pl um and and and you know I think there's lots of opportunity
00:56:54
I think that the the the Ellison's will bollocks it and coming to you soon to
00:56:58
Cara Swisser docky series Cara Swisser wants to live forever on CNN. No kidding. That's coming.
00:57:04
>> I just hope it closes before then so I can see a photo with you and Larry
00:57:07
Ellison. >> No, it's not. Listen, it's it's going to be soon. I will be out I'll be I'll have
00:57:13
removed my my things from the closet long before then. So curious who they're
00:57:16
going to ask who they're going to. >> Let me just tell you everybody, Scott
00:57:19
Galloway is in the second episode and he's looking fine and and it's he looks
00:57:24
it's he's it's an adorable Cara and Scott moment. Anyway, let's go.
00:57:29
>> That'll save him. >> That's their answer. >> A good It's actually a really good show.
00:57:34
I have to say I'm very >> You have to say your show's really good.
00:57:36
You're going to love this. Uh, I did a podcast today and they asked me what was
00:57:40
my favorite moment with Cara Swisser and I said when you and your wife came down
00:57:46
for the weekend and I let you speak pick the streaming media thing we were going
00:57:50
to watch. Big mistake. You picked some like art heist from PBS or like the history of great museum thefts
00:57:57
or something. I >> Oh, that was a good show. And we're sitting there and we're all eating and o
00:58:03
over comes white LeBron, your 14-year-old monster. >> And he sits down and I'm not
00:58:08
exaggerating. We all pop 8 in into the air. >> He's bigger than ever. >> And also the next day you were you were
00:58:15
scolding him like a mother does and you were literally your neck was craning so hard up at him.
00:58:21
>> It was like watching mama. >> It was like watching Billy Barter Barty
00:58:26
lecture Shaquille O'Neal. Yeah. Like I said to my I said to >> I I said to my son, I'm like, "Look at
00:58:31
this. Look at this. Look what's going on over there." >> Yeah. >> Anyway, that's right. I should parent
00:58:37
everybody. Anyway, um uh let's go on a quick break. When we come back, wins and
00:58:42
fails. >> Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and fails. What? I can go first if you want.
00:58:47
>> First, >> I have to say I we talked I talked too much about Hito Robin, but I thought
00:58:52
Connor's story did a great job uh on SNL this week. I usually >> Oh my god, that's my win.
00:58:58
>> What? What? Okay, you take it. You take it. Let's discuss it. Go ahead. Go
00:59:03
ahead. Take it. >> I feel that SNL thread uh My win was SNL. I thought they thread the needle
00:59:10
perfectly >> this week. Yeah. Not every week. Yeah. >> They they honored the women's team,
00:59:16
>> but at the same time, I think it's all the the men have taken. >> Yeah.
00:59:20
>> I think for them to Wouldn't it have been great if you listen to the video?
00:59:23
This was President Trump taking everyone back to the 50s and mocking women. >> That is not what we need. We need a more
00:59:30
evolved sense of masculinity that celebrates great athletic performance. By the way, eight of 12 medals from the
00:59:35
women. >> The goal, the overtime goal, the in my opinion, one of the great moments in sports
00:59:41
history of the women's hockey team. They threaded the needle perfectly because I
00:59:44
do think the men got more than they deserved. I >> they got they got invaded by Cash Patel.
00:59:50
Let's blame Cash. >> That's exactly right. But what are they going to do? What are they going to do?
00:59:54
>> I agree. >> Anyways, and if you listen to the tape when when Trump made those wildly sexist
01:00:00
remarks, there were one or two men's hockey players saying two for two. They
01:00:05
were trying to acknowledge that both the men's and the women's team >> and SNL did it perfectly. It they didn't
01:00:12
virtue signal and say, "Yeah, women and oh that both jokes." They had the women
01:00:17
make the jokes and the men were >> and the men were there to take it >> and they were fine with it. They thread
01:00:21
the needle >> perfectly. >> And it was critical that Connor's story
01:00:25
was standing in between them. I have to say he's such a likable person and such
01:00:29
a talented physical comedian. Like his stripper who got in a car accident was so funny. Like I I don't believe
01:00:37
they pulled that one off. Um I have I have to say he is such a delightful talented.
01:00:42
>> He's a delightful figure. Both of them are. And >> I'm telling you, season two like
01:00:47
scorching hot rivalry with the women's hockey team. Daddy's here for it.
01:00:51
>> Yes. Yes. And I thought the women handled it well. >> So well done.
01:00:55
>> Everyone was big. Everybody was big. >> The writers at SNL are geniuses.
01:00:58
>> And you know who who sucks? Cash Patel. Why are you invading these guys
01:01:03
win? Like as if you and reflected glory. You you tubby loser. Like forget it. Like how dare you. Now now
01:01:11
I'm focused only on Cash Patel. I I I I really am. I think he's just the worst.
01:01:16
So um uh my fail is is um I think this this situation with Anthropica. I think it has to be we are not
01:01:24
>> the same person today. We're literally the same person. >> Okay. Right. I think there they are
01:01:30
bullies. I think they use Twitter as a a way to attack people in a way that's
01:01:34
really unprofessional. You can have differences and everyone's already always grabbing for power and grabbing
01:01:41
for money. I get it. It's gone on since the beginning of time. But the way you're doing this is all about your
01:01:46
insecured childhood traumas that are being writ large on the rest of us. This is not professional. You do not have to
01:01:53
like do this. And they do it as like keyboard warriors on Twitter. Um I got a text from I'm not going to say who it
01:01:59
was who said you got the world is happening on Twitter. You got to be back here. And I was like I'm not going back
01:02:05
to that Nazi porn bar that enjoys making children sexual. I was like the world is
01:02:11
not happening on Twitter. The world is happening in the world, you guys. Like, you need to get out of your own
01:02:19
way. You are you are you you have to understand that what you're doing is damaging to most people and
01:02:26
that we don't want to hear about all your beefs and all your traumas and everything else. If Anthropic doesn't
01:02:33
want to do business with you, just let's move along. Let's just move along. And
01:02:37
I'm sorry you're not as successful as Daario Amodi or smart Emil Michael, but
01:02:42
you're going to have to live with it as as being an anxious toad to the powerful. Stop it. Like that to me is is
01:02:49
the loss. You go ahead. >> Mine's exactly the same, but I I'll look
01:02:53
at it through a shareholder lens. I'm looking at a company called Marcado Libé, which is the Amazon of Argentina.
01:02:58
And one of the reasons I'm looking at it >> is that effectively when the bricks were
01:03:03
in vogue, you know, the price earnings multiple of certain Latin American markets was about 20 and it went down to
01:03:10
eight because all the flows went into US tech stocks which meant you could you could increase your earnings two and a
01:03:17
half fold over 10 years and your stock was flat. You can't outrun multiple contraction in a market as a stock and
01:03:25
it all under the same opaces and market dynamics trump individual performance. At the same time, it's almost impossible
01:03:31
to be wrong when you have multiple expansion. It has been American investors. You know, we all think we're
01:03:36
geniuses right now in our 401ks. We have had multiple expansion since 2008 and we're about to experience multiple
01:03:43
contraction and we're already experiencing it. We were 21 out of 23 markets last year on a dollar adjusted
01:03:48
basis. Everyone else outperformed us and one of the reasons people don't realize
01:03:52
we have just lost trillions of dollars when the Pentagon starts picking winners and losers. If which makes weapons
01:04:00
decides that yeah we are going to figure out we're going to use Silicon Valley
01:04:04
ethos to help the defense department kill people and people freak out. Well, guess what? They're allowed to do that.
01:04:10
It's not illegal. They're allowed to do that when anthropic or excuse me when
01:04:14
when Palunteer says we're going to work with the government of Israel to track
01:04:17
down terrorists and kill them in their homes that you may find that distasteful. It's legal. They're allowed
01:04:23
to do it. And anthropic when they decide we don't want to provide our services or
01:04:28
data for what we feel is the surveilling the illegal surveillance of US citizens,
01:04:32
they too are allowed to do that. And when governments start playing political favorites in markets, the the rule of
01:04:41
law is no longer applied and your multiple on companies, your price earnings multiple begins to contract.
01:04:49
Freedoms and systemic laws and a separation between government and business results in higher price
01:04:55
earnings multiples and greater increases in 401ks and your ability to retire earlier. And this Pentagon
01:05:03
stationary war on anthropic is going to cost US investors trillions of dollars as people decide to go where they know
01:05:13
who they're waking up next to that they can invest in a company and they do the
01:05:17
assessment based on the laws at hand. Is this company succeeding or failing based
01:05:21
on the current laws and they don't have to try and guess what the oneoff individual laws will be in a few months.
01:05:28
So I have the same >> same win and same fail. >> Uh but I look at it as an investor. I'm
01:05:34
now looking at markets. >> People get angry at the autotocracies in in China or in the Gulf. They have a
01:05:42
huge respect for the domain or the sovereignty of investors and having uniform laws that apply to everyone
01:05:50
equally. And we are now becoming that nation where we decide which companies win and lose. And all that means is our
01:05:56
PE. We're about to experience multiple contraction which you cannot outrun. >> Not for long. Let me just say you feel
01:06:02
it. Can't you feel it? And speaking of feeling it, Scott, this has been a great
01:06:06
discussion. I have to say I was a little worried this morning. Um I was also tired, but this has been a really great
01:06:10
discussion about these things and disagreeing in a really uh civil way. But let me say it's going to continue
01:06:16
because we're going Where are we going? Scott Galloway on Sunday. >> Resist and unsubscribe. Big
01:06:22
announcement, fulltime resources, and by the way, Sam, it's not going to be a
01:06:26
good night for you. >> No, >> it's And guess what, Sam? We're talking
01:06:30
about >> 48 hours. >> You put Cara Swisser on an invite. In 48 hours, we sold out the pantageous at
01:06:37
thousands. >> We sold it out. And we want to thank Tain Danger for doing an amazing job for
01:06:41
us in Minneapolis. >> He's my favorite porn star. >> He's your favorite porn star. And he's
01:06:44
an amazing Danger and our staff who's working really hard. We sold out right
01:06:48
away. We are coming to Minneapolis. We have special guests. We are very excited. Um and we will talk about the
01:06:55
next move. Scott will Scott who's the president of Resist and Unsubscribe. Um
01:07:00
I'm just a helper. Um but we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever is on
01:07:05
your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show or call 8551 pivot. Okay, that's the show.
01:07:12
Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back on
01:07:16
Friday.