00:00:00
I was right. I was [ __ ] dead right. >> We predicted this. >> Scott, you and I predicted in March that
00:00:06
we would see a deal like this. >> We predicted he would exit. >> As I predicted last week,
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>> as I predicted, I knew this day was coming and how it would go down. >> You did. You predicted it.
00:00:14
>> I did. >> A new biography from Cara Swisser. And dot dot dot. I was right.
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>> But the thing is, I was right. Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York
00:00:32
Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisser >> and I'm Scott Galloway.
00:00:36
>> Scott, we're here for your Super Bowl, our annual predictions episode where we
00:00:41
look past some of our past predictions and make some new ones. Are you ready? >> So ready. Yeah.
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>> Okay. You have a lot. I know I've got a few, too. So listen up to both of us.
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Okay. We're starting things off on the subject of AI because we have to. were
00:00:55
obligated by legally to do so. Uh first let's listen to a prediction you made on
00:00:59
last year's prediction podcast. >> Okay. So briefly 2025 will be the year
00:01:05
of a new duopoly. It'll be open video. Open AAI and Nvidia. Right now control
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arguably 90% of all traffic and AI 90% of the queries 90% of the queries are the processors that are powering those
00:01:17
answers to those queries are those two firms. And so it'll be kind of the new
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windel and people will start referring it to it as the most powerful duopoly in the world.
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>> Well, interesting. That was absolutely true except now it's code red at open
00:01:30
how things have moved and obviously Nvidia is still on top but facing some possible competition in 2026. Any
00:01:37
thoughts on that? >> Yeah, I don't know if that was that um provocative a prediction because it
00:01:43
was already shaping up. The prediction I'm most proud of from last year is I I
00:01:46
every year I have a big tech stock pick and last year I picked Alphabet and it's
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up 68% since the prediction. >> Mhm. >> But it was already sort of forming.
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>> Um and it it but yeah it it continues they continue to sort of be the the
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duopoly >> but not going forward. What's interesting is similar to Winel people
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are coming for them um across uh you know on both dimensions but especially open AI uh and I like your analogy that
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open AI might be the Netscape of um of our generation. >> Yeah, I'm always waiting. Was it
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Netscape or Google? I think we're at that moment right now. Um it was Google
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for a little bit but now it looks like Google's decided to be Google. Any you
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were right about that stock. Great one. Okay, time for both of us to have an AI prediction for 2026. Uh Scott, you got a
00:02:37
prediction about AI stocks. >> Yeah, I think there's going to be a major draw down and it's because uh it
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all goes back to geopolitics. Uh essentially Trump has adjusted tariff policy with China 17 times so far in his
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second term. I think they've pretty much had it with this guy and they've now
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said they're now in the closest thing they could get into short of a hot war.
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And so basically China is totally diversifying away from the US in terms of exports. Their export volumes are up
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40% since 2019 while imports are only up 1% and over the same period the US share
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of China's exports fell from 17 to 10%. And the reason that that sets the context here and that it's I think
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China's about to go for the jugular here and I think that they're going to
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massively engage in what I'll refer to as AI dumping and that is these openw
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weight models including QN3 Max. um the these models are just much cheaper, lower power consumption, and everyone
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from Airbnb to other Fortune 500 firms are starting to recognize that these things are lower cost. And uh I think
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essentially China is going to say, "Okay, the fastest way to kick this guy in the nuts is that he's made a giant
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bet on AI, including the S&P and his entire economy on AI, and we're just
00:03:52
going to start dumping AI into the US market." And as a result, I think you're
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going to see a massive rerating down. And also the the the harsh truth is these open weight models coming out of
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China are getting to technical parody and the fastest way to build a big business is to offer 80% of the leader
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at 50% of the price and that's what they're doing. Uh, so I think you're
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going to see massive pressure placed on Open AI and I think that is going to um and other US-based models and I think
00:04:19
that's going to cause a rerating down of these stocks and even 80% of A16 uh Z
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startups use Chinese open source models. So anyways, I think we're going to see a
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massive rerating down of the Magnificent 7 at the hands of uh AI dumping from China.
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>> Yeah, that means data centers go down the whole thing. Ouch. Watch out below. All right. Mine is um
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in an area that I keep thinking about a lot. I've spent a lot of time thinking
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about it, which is robotics. And I think the combination of AI and robotics has not been fully plumbed enough. And I
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really do think the um that we are not paying attention to what all the innovations happening there is because
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we get focused on Elon's stupid optimist robots that are running around doing our
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laundry. I think there in manufacturing in all kinds of areas, robotics are going to really start to become really
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interesting. cars. I consider that robotics. Um the smarts of them with combined with robotics is really where
00:05:15
the big changes we're going to see in our society. I just do. I don't mean
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again a a bot making your coffee, but it's not going to look like what you think that you know because I think it's
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really hard as many robotics people tell you to make a hand work. And where we're
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focusing is so anthropomorphic um that I think it's a mistake. I think there'll
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be robotics in lots and lots and lots and lots of things and and especially when combined with AI and one of the
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things I tested was in Korea these um these these essentially ectokeletons now have AI embedded in them and they work
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so much better and so you can see it being applied all over the place and these are braces they look like braces
00:05:52
and before they were mechanical that would help you walk now AI helps decide how you do it and I think they're
00:05:57
nothing short of miraculous and so that's where you're going to see some
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that's that's my area and AI is focusing on its applications in a wide range of
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different products across robotics. >> I love that and and just to add some
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texture to that I think where you will see shareholder gains from AI won't be
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in AI it'll be an AI application specifically autonomous specifically Whimo >> and as you said a the chocolate and
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peanut butter of AI and robotics specifically Amazon and we'll come back to that.
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>> Yeah absolutely and they have been early to that by the way. Okay, next category
00:06:30
business. Scott, let's listen to a prediction you made back in April. >> I think you're going to see in the next
00:06:36
one or two weeks a cadra of Fortune 500 CEOs, Republicans stand up, business leaders stand up and
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say, "Okay, enough already." While you all claim he's playing 4D chess, at this
00:06:48
point we're worried he's going to start eating the pieces. >> Not so much. Although Jamie Diamond sort
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of yelled at Maria Baroma the other day, but not so much. >> Yeah. Um, yeah. Let me comment.
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>> Yeah, they really have turned out to be profiles and non-courage. That's really
00:07:06
something else. >> I just don't and I still don't get it. Quite frankly, I still don't understand
00:07:12
what's the point of having all this money. And if you don't nod to the principles that got you this wealthy, I
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I don't I just don't I don't get it. I don't understand it. These guys are
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bulletproof. Why are they What are they worried about? >> Yep. Agree. I think it's just the one of
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the most disappointing things you've seen here. I think it surprised everybody, a lot of people. Anyway,
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you've got an investment prediction here and then I have one. Go ahead. >> Uh you mean my stock pick?
00:07:37
>> Yes. >> So my big tech stock pick every year I pick a big tech stock pick and my stock
00:07:42
pick this year is uh and when I say outperform if if AI if AI throws up, everything's going down, folks. So what
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I'm saying is this stock will perform better. That might be down 10 instead of
00:07:54
down 50. But my big tech pick for 2026 is Amazon. It's been an underperformer
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year to date. It's only up 7%. I like it. >> And also its revenue per employee is
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down 28% versus up 49, 56, and 62 at Metal Alphabet and Microsoft respectively because they have made
00:08:14
massive investments that have not yet yielded payoffs in see above what Cara said, robotics.
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Um, but what you're going to see here is that uh they've started laying off
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employees. I'm not saying that's a good thing, but Google's laid off 2500, Meta
00:08:30
4600, Tesla 14,000, Amazon's laid off 18,000. And what's just so striking is
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that Amazon is predicting it can double the revenue at its retail group, which is as big as topline revenue business,
00:08:43
with no increase in employees. And I think the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics at Amazon is huge. And
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Amazon is really the Ford of the 21st century. And that is over several years, Ford was able to take the the time to to
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manufacture a car down um 90% and Amazon just since its acquisition of Kea Robots
00:09:09
has been able to take down click to fulfill or to ship down by 80%. And if you want to talk about your prediction
00:09:17
around investment in robotics, here is the number of operational industrial robots. Uh, China has 2 million. The US
00:09:26
excluding Amazon has 400,000. Amazon has a million operational industrial robots.
00:09:33
So Amazon has 2 and a half times the number of operational robots, industrial robots is the rest of the nation
00:09:41
combined. So they have made an enormous bet and typically more margin expansion from Amazon has come from its media
00:09:50
group where you have forced to advertise or from its cloud group but you're going
00:09:55
to see a margin expansion at the hands of operational efficiencies from robotics and AI in its retail group.
00:10:03
It's also I don't want to say cheap right now but reasonably priced. It typically trains at a P multiple over
00:10:09
the last five years of 58. Now it's at 33 and its enterprise value to ibitta is
00:10:14
usually 23 and now it's 17. So in some my I I think it's fairly it's not it's a
00:10:22
fair value right now and I think you're about to see the mother of all margin
00:10:25
expansion at the hands of AI and robotics. So my big tech stock pick for 26 is Amazon.
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>> Yeah like it. So Amazon it is really interesting. Um I'm gonna you know
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there's a lot of IPOs coming up. We've talked about them. SpaceX, a bunch of
00:10:38
others. Um, and uh, I think that's all very interesting. But, you know, you talked about that there was a lot of
00:10:44
worry about the stock market declines couple years ahead of the the the decline, right?
00:10:51
>> I just feel like with this midterm election coming up, we may have a more
00:10:55
of a stock market downturn before that. Like I I don't like to call these. I'm
00:11:00
not an expert in this way, but the it feel investors feel very fragile, it seems like, and anything affects them.
00:11:07
And I know it's been a surging stock market. It really has. Sort of against all the odds and all the deficits and
00:11:14
every it seems to like ignore that, but I don't think it could ignore it for two
00:11:18
or three more years. I think sometime in 2026, maybe at right after the midterms,
00:11:23
which I think everyone needs to be paying attention to obviously, um, this year we may start to see like maybe the
00:11:29
stock market not being so good for Trump. Uh, I think that's has helped buoy him. And as you said, if China does
00:11:36
things like you were talking about, you're going to see where you're going
00:11:38
to see the declines are in these tech companies. So, I just feel like there's
00:11:42
there's going to be a real a lot of volatility around the companies that you
00:11:46
talked about at the first place. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break.
00:11:50
We come back, more predictions. Okay, Scott, let's talk politics. I'm not sure
00:11:55
we could have predicted most of the mess that was the 2025 politics. We did okay.
00:11:59
We did get one thing right about a certain breakup. Let's listen to what uh I said on in November of 2024.
00:12:06
>> I think these people can't coexist together in the same room for much for
00:12:11
too long. That's my that's my sense. Maybe I'll be completely wrong, but I
00:12:15
feel like that Trump likes the attention and Elon likes the attention and there's
00:12:20
only so much attention to go around. >> And I had a cold end. Let's hear what
00:12:24
you had to say on the matter in February. >> I think Doge is going to be over and
00:12:28
done by the end of the year. Okay, we got that one right. We just did. We just knew it. He's sort of back,
00:12:34
I guess. >> Yeah, but they it they saved $2 billion. >> Yeah, you know, he saved nothing. He
00:12:39
killed people. >> He's about to unwittingly, and I'm not saying he meant to do this, but he will
00:12:43
probably end up on some lists along with Stalin, Paul, Hitler. Uh there will people people will start to aggregate
00:12:51
lists. I don't know if Trump or Musk will be on that list, but when you look
00:12:54
at the hundreds of thousands of people who can be direct whose fatality or death can be directly linked to a lack
00:12:59
or a cut off of USA ID, >> they're going to end up on some of those lists.
00:13:03
>> Yeah. And I think we got the Doge thing right. They're still there. Some of them
00:13:06
are still there, but you know, you know, look, it's fine to want to save money
00:13:10
and be more efficient, but the way he did it was so ham-handed and cruel and and pointless. I I met some USA ID
00:13:17
people last night at an event and they were doing astonishing work and it was all soft diplomacy, you know, soft uh
00:13:23
power and stuff. Just the the damage he's done cuz he's such a like demented
00:13:28
addict of some sort. It was really really stupid. And I think he just wanted to break like me break thing by
00:13:36
kind of thing. And it wasn't thoughtful. There's a thoughtful ways to figure out
00:13:39
how to be more efficient and he didn't use none of them. And it was inevitable
00:13:42
that he would fight with Trump. He'll still be hanging around the basket cuz
00:13:45
he's such a toxic figure and Trump will use him as he wants. But Trump certainly
00:13:50
uh if only if he has use for him will he be around. Um okay, I've already made
00:13:56
one politics prediction for 2026. Let's play a clip as a reminder. >> You know, I'm a big believer as people
00:14:01
know when I covered Silicon Valley and the leak and I think there's going to be
00:14:05
people leaking this stuff over and it's going to be drip drip drip. And this is
00:14:09
something I think, you know, it would be super ironic that this guy gets taken down by emails.
00:14:20
>> You love that. >> I feel like we're going to have President JD Vance by the end of 2026.
00:14:26
>> I get it. >> So, wait, hold on. You think this ends his presidency prematurely?
00:14:30
>> Yes. >> He'll be sick. He'll be Yeah, >> I do. I think he's not going to make it
00:14:36
to the end. Be careful what you wish for. >> Okay. Well, I still think that
00:14:40
>> that would So, I can see him being impeached in Congress. He would need 66
00:14:46
votes or 67 in the Senate. >> I don't mean like that. I just think >> you mean he resigns.
00:14:51
>> I think he's sicker than we than we realize. I think he's very robust
00:14:54
looking, but I think there's all manner of I've seen more and more doctors like
00:14:59
this is like >> Oh, you think it's a health issue? >> I don't know. Look, his family stuck
00:15:03
around for a while being his dad stuck around for a while with dementia. That's
00:15:08
for sure. But I do think there's I just I don't know. I just feel like I think
00:15:14
they're going to try to give Vance an attempt to be president. And uh I think
00:15:18
the I think that they'll run out of reasons to keep him there. And I I think
00:15:23
if he loses badly in the midterms, I think that's he's no no longer useful,
00:15:29
let's just say. And so I don't mean killing or anything like that. I just
00:15:32
think he's old. He's just old. Scott, as you said, biology is undefeated. Okay,
00:15:36
Scott. Um, uh, give us I I have one more, but let Well, actually, I'll do mine.
00:15:41
>> Sure. >> I would like to see in politics the shutting up of tech CEOs everywhere. I
00:15:46
mean, when have we seen like can you imagine the head of Lockhee behaving like Alex Karp did in that recent New
00:15:53
York Times thing with our favorite Canadian, uh, Andrew Ross Circin? He looked demented screaming on the stage.
00:15:59
Did you see that performance? Um >> I something was like what was going on
00:16:04
there? >> Well, they thought he was on cocaine. I have no idea. He looked crazy. That's
00:16:08
all I know. Like, who knows? Um they were making all kinds of cocaine jokes, but um I he is not I don't believe
00:16:14
that's the case. And he's just like that. >> A little of the Bolivian marching
00:16:18
powder. >> No, I just think he's just like a little devil's dandruff.
00:16:20
>> My experience is he's just like that. And now you're getting a [ __ ] taste
00:16:23
of what I've had to listen to over the decades. But I think these people, like
00:16:27
if I see Jensen Wong in his stupid coat anymore, like when did we when was the head of Locked around all this time?
00:16:33
When was the head of like these people need to sit down and shut up for a little while? Like seriously, they just
00:16:40
can't stop making giant asses of themselves almost continually. And so I would predict they need to shut up. They
00:16:47
won't, but that's what I would like to happen. What is your prediction for um
00:16:51
you have an interesting one about the predictions market? Yeah. So, well, one, I think the next
00:16:57
bailout is coming. Uh, there was a bailout of the banks. Actually, I think that was a good idea. There was a
00:17:01
bailout of the airlines, which was socialism and stupid. We should have let them go out of business. All these
00:17:05
airline CEOs who used all their excess cash flow when things were good to do stock buybacks and collect 150 million
00:17:11
in compensation. And then COVID hits and we're all in this together and they got
00:17:16
bailouts. But the next bailout is going to be the bailout of Sam Alman, Jensen Hong, Sachi Nadala. Basically,
00:17:23
the S&P is now 40%, the magnificent 10. Uh, Trump is only able to get away with
00:17:28
the [ __ ] he's getting away with because the S&P is up 13%. So, his entire
00:17:33
presidency and our entire economy is now one big giant bet on AI. There is no way
00:17:39
they can keep up with these expectations. And so what they will do is come to Washington hat in hand and
00:17:44
they will call it something else like a ships act and they will have governmentbacked debt purchases of these
00:17:49
chips in these data centers to prop up an AI market. >> Can we get Jensen Wong's leather coat in
00:17:56
exchange? I should have it. >> It's about to become a multi- trillion dollar leather coat.
00:18:00
>> But I mean every industry now the energy industry 10% of the earnings call
00:18:05
mention mention AI. financials one in five earnings calls are now talking about it and also if you look at the big
00:18:13
the biggest tech stocks from peak to trough Alphabet was down 65% Microsoft 70% Meta lost 3/4 of its value from 2021
00:18:22
to 2022 Apple lost 83% of its value in the dot implosion Nvidia lost 90% in dot Amazon lost 95% peaked to trough the
00:18:34
problem is is if if these companies do what these companies do in a volatile environment.
00:18:40
The economy goes into a tail spin and Trump is no longer allowed to bomb or to murder people in the water or send in a
00:18:47
mass secret police into American towns. So, he will decide to prop up this industry with what is effectively a
00:18:54
bailout that'll be positioned as growth, but essentially this the next bailout is
00:19:00
coming. Poly Market and Khi I I just can't get over how genius these businesses are because you have the
00:19:06
ultimate u marketing and that is whenever there's a big decision to be made or or a big issue we we're starting
00:19:14
to look at what these companies think >> except they can be so game Scott I'm so
00:19:18
nervous about the gaming aspect and kind of the sick ass like let's bet how many
00:19:21
kids are die have died in this shooting that kind of stuff. Well, oh no, there's
00:19:27
bigger concern. Well, okay, first off, let's look at the opportunity for insider trading.
00:19:32
>> It's getting down to will this pitch be faster or slower than 90 mph?
00:19:38
>> So, okay, Eric Adams, will Eric Adams drop out of the race in the next seven
00:19:41
days? >> And they say, oh no, it's 3 to one. He doesn't. If I'm Eric Adams and I'm
00:19:46
eventually going to drop out, why don't I raise 10 million bucks and drop out
00:19:49
the next day and as a severance payment collect $20 million? >> Right. Exactly. I mean it's just and the
00:19:55
the unfortunate thing is most of us don't have access in this insider information. So we are on the wrong end
00:20:01
of a trade asymmetrically. And also when states legalize gambling and this is it's not really gambling. I like these
00:20:09
things. I don't I I can't decide if I like these things or I don't like these
00:20:12
things. >> I agree. I agree. Some of it's really interesting. At the same time I'm like
00:20:15
so easy to game, so easy to go sick, right? Like bet on. >> Well, and again it's it's attempting to
00:20:21
legitimize gambling. you're not investing here, you're gambling. But at the same time, I just appreciate how
00:20:26
powerful these businesses are. Also, I'm going to start incorporating either Poly
00:20:31
Market or Cali data into a lot of my media. I just think it's fascinating what the wisdom of crowds thinks. And if
00:20:37
you look at these things, they are fantastic. They are fantastic prediction engines. They usually get it. They
00:20:44
usually get it right. So, >> or now, like, you know what I mean? I feel like the Russian mob is like, "How
00:20:49
should we handle this? This is a perk. >> Well, okay. Along those lines, the
00:20:54
majority of the bets in the New York mayoral race came out of the Middle East. >> So, you don't think we're they're going
00:21:01
to start using because if you say mom Donnie is up 95%. That is really good for mom Donnie.
00:21:07
>> Yeah. >> And so, why wouldn't you weigh in and start manipulating these things,
00:21:12
>> right? >> Anyways, and >> pay attention people. >> There is and also just the downside.
00:21:18
First off, my mom was a dosent at the Bellagio Hotel. >> I love that word dosent. Go ahead.
00:21:23
>> She used to come home armed with these fun facts and one of them was kind of
00:21:26
sad is that gambling has the highest suicide rate. >> So one in seven men who are who gamble
00:21:32
are addicted. It's got the highest suicide rate because if you develop an addiction to meth, people start to
00:21:38
notice and they weigh in. You can leverage your homestead your kids college fund and nobody knows and people
00:21:44
feel as if they have no way out. In addition, bankruptcies go up by a third the moment a state legalizes gambling.
00:21:51
So there some real externalities here. But having said that, I am fascinated by these markets. It's going to be the vice
00:21:57
of the year is going to be the predictions market. And I also think that they will be two of the biggest one
00:22:04
or both of them is going to go public in 2026 and it's going to be one of the
00:22:08
biggest. It's going to be one of the best IPOs of 26. These things are phenomena.
00:22:12
>> Yeah. I just I'm like, can you see this going so [ __ ] sideways? I'm going to
00:22:17
bet on if Cara or Scott is going to die first >> and then I'll kill you.
00:22:24
>> Well, >> or Larara, I'll have Lara kill you, our producer. For see what I mean? I'm
00:22:29
>> the opportunity for insider tra and is it even insider trading? How does sports
00:22:33
betting? If you're a pitcher on your last leg here and you're about to like
00:22:36
not make any more money and you're finally up from triple A ball and you're
00:22:39
not going to make any more money, >> you just have your brother in the stands
00:22:41
go pitch it slower than 90 mph on this one. Pitch it faster, >> right? >> And you walk you can probably walk away
00:22:48
with another million bucks on that game. And I'm not even sure if it's illegal
00:22:52
yet. >> I like that you go to sports and you don't go to murder murder like I do.
00:22:56
>> Yeah. I don't I think there's cheaper ways to get someone killed probably, but
00:23:00
>> I know. just game everything's gamified in a >> but you want to talk about it's already
00:23:04
impacting okay Caesars >> down 38% this year Vegas every Vegas company that's publicly traded is down
00:23:12
between 19 and 38% this year because why >> betting markets >> oh and by the way I just love the fact
00:23:17
that we've lost $4 billion in Vegas because Canadians are no longer going but it's our manufacturing base has been
00:23:23
absolutely reinvigorated Jesus Christ what [ __ ] idiots >> [ __ ] idiots >> by the way folks 80% of people don't
00:23:28
want to be in manufacturing you can't bring your dog to the factory floor. Anyway, where I was headed with this is
00:23:34
>> there's few there's fewer people in Vegas because now Vegas is in you. Vegas
00:23:39
>> Vegas is everywhere now. So, you're really going to see these firms struggle
00:23:43
and you're going to see an enormous transition of capital. >> Yeah. Though you can't get a massive
00:23:49
breakfast bar. That's true. Anyway, uh for for $2. All right, Scott, let's go
00:23:54
on a quick break. We come back, entertainment predictions. Okay, Scott. Next up, we're talking
00:23:59
about media and entertainment. Last year, you appreciate it would be a banner year for podcast. Let's listen to
00:24:03
what I said about our favorite movie. >> Wicked for Good was amazing. I have to
00:24:08
say >> it's a play. >> It's a movie. It's a sequel. It's like
00:24:11
going to be an enormous huge box office this year. >> Yeah, it's not quite It hasn't quite
00:24:17
reached this the first one, but yeah, it's huge. Just so you know, I think it's $375 million and and less good
00:24:25
songs. Both those chicks are just [ __ ] awful. >> No, they're not. That may be. I don't
00:24:30
care. I'm always right. >> Oh my god, it's a helicopter. >> We're in a quasi d demi parasocial
00:24:36
relation. These people and they weigh 45 [ __ ] pounds. Yeah, they're great role
00:24:40
models for $15. >> That is I would say that is an issue worth discussing. I don't usually like
00:24:44
to talk about people's looks, but in that case, >> they're disappearing.
00:24:48
>> All of them. The entire cast. It's really weird. Anyway, uh I agree. It's
00:24:52
concerning. Let's say concerning. But let me say I was right. I You were never
00:24:56
right about what's popular >> about media. Oh no. >> Except Pluribabus.
00:25:00
>> My prediction is that all World War II and color documentaries are the people.
00:25:04
>> Okay, I understand Grant. But listen, you're right about Pluribabus. Oh my
00:25:08
god. >> Plurus is good. >> Vince Gilligan or Gallagan. Vince Gallian.
00:25:11
>> HDP. HDP and John Cena. I'm not We're This is going in many. >> HDP I think I'm on it. Is that human
00:25:18
growth hormone? No. >> I mean I have longer erections, a little stronger. See your doctor. See your
00:25:23
doctor. derived protein. You're not caught up, I guess. Anyway, >> human what? Oh, this is this is from
00:25:27
your secret show on CNN. >> No, this is this is Plurbus. >> Oh, Plurbus. Okay,
00:25:34
>> people. Soilent green is people. Anyway, we're by the time this airs, we'll know
00:25:38
more. But let me just say it's also a banner year for dispic lesbians on television. So, that's really good.
00:25:45
Difficult lesbians are the trend and and I and I sort of pioneered that. Anyway,
00:25:52
um, >> speaking of lesbians, has Emily Rodicaus asked about me? >> Not yet. Not yet. Not yet. I'll let you
00:25:57
know. I'll let you know, though. Anyway, probably sometime in >> She's going to play it that way. Huh?
00:26:01
>> How about sometime in the 12th of Never? >> She's going to play it that way. I
00:26:04
>> Scott, you've got a prediction about the future of Hollywood. And so do I. You go
00:26:07
first. >> Uh, okay. So, short short form video and AI meteor strike Hollywood AI one,
00:26:14
especially if the Ellison's get a hold of Warner. Uh, you have to wait 7 minutes after the Fantastic 4 just to
00:26:22
get through the credits. More people worked on the Fantastic 4 than work at Reddit and slightly fewer than
00:26:28
Palunteer. The means of production has to come way down and AI is just going to I mean everybody is so sentimental for
00:26:36
theaters. Theaters have not come back. Basically, theaters are down by a third since co. It just hasn't recovered.
00:26:43
You're also going to see 70% of Americans 10 to 24 years old watch TV or movies on YouTube or Tik Tok. And then
00:26:51
what's crazy is these um short form video platforms. The Kids Diana Show has
00:26:58
137 million subscribers, which is uh I think more subscribers than Disney Plus. What's weird is that Meg Whitman and
00:27:04
Jeff Kzenberg might have been right about short form video. They were just kind of ahead of their time and didn't
00:27:09
have the capital. Mhm. >> But we have trained our brains to be so short form and dopey hungry that these
00:27:17
short form video series of three and six minute little mini episodes out of China
00:27:23
seem to be taking off and getting real share. But back to the original one, AI is coming for Hollywood and all the
00:27:29
virtue signaling and and how precious they are. It's not going to mean a [ __ ] thing. Economics to your point
00:27:35
and capitalism will win out here. But basically AI, which everyone is expecting, is about to accelerate in
00:27:41
terms of reducing the cost of the means of production in Hollywood. And B, I think these short form video platforms
00:27:47
that I had not heard of before are about to make a real dent. And just some of the titles, my favorite titles of some
00:27:54
of the people who worked on the Fantastic 4. Molly Cook was an assistant data wrangler.
00:28:00
>> You know what? She's going to call you. >> They had a home economist. They had I
00:28:03
mean, it's just it's just hilarious. Um, vehicles art director, a junior petty
00:28:09
cash buyer. Oh, no. No. Olivia Olivia Smurray was a food stylist. >> Oh my god. Is it all women that you want
00:28:17
to get out of work? But go ahead. Go ahead. Have a man. Have a man. Is there a man in your
00:28:21
>> I don't see gender. I'm not looking at this and going man or woman. You're
00:28:25
obsessed with sex and race. >> Now, I think you're right about both. Oh, food styling is also important. just
00:28:33
so but it will be all AIed. Just so you know, food stylist, they're going to AI
00:28:37
this [ __ ] Um, but I would agree with you on all both these things. You know what's interesting? Many years ago,
00:28:42
there was a show called uh Quarter Life. You've never heard of it. The guy who
00:28:46
did 30ome, Ed Zwick, I think that's who did it. >> That show, >> right? 30ome. But he had a show that was
00:28:52
I think YouTube only um called Quarter Life. And it was short 15minute shows. And at the time it failed. But boy, I
00:29:00
remember thinking this is the way, you know, and I same thing with Jeff um Katzenberg. Like it was right. It just
00:29:06
was wrong at the time. But this quarter life was really go back and find it if you can because it was an attempt at
00:29:12
short form video drama at over these quarter life was people who were 25 years old. So, and they were all
00:29:18
attractive and [ __ ] each other. But um it was really interesting and it was far too early for people's tastes to get
00:29:25
there. But now it has. I watch mostly uh short form video now. I have to say. >> Where do you watch it?
00:29:30
>> Oh, on on uh threads or Instagram usually. I don't like Tik Tok. It's too
00:29:36
um but I I I like the pace of Instagram, I have to say. Um anyway, if I'm watching short form video and they're
00:29:42
quite good. I love >> the sexiest thing you can say in your 30s is I already took tomorrow off.
00:29:50
>> Anyway, I have a prediction. It's it sort of dubtales because of what Scott
00:29:53
was talking about and because the economics just don't work. it they don't
00:29:57
work everybody Hollywood consolidation just you know not just AI but how everything is made is going to with
00:30:04
these new owners and there's going to be more deals and I know you're all
00:30:08
horrified about Netflix but get ready my friends there's so much going to happen
00:30:12
and there are questions of creativity and how people get paid but there's just
00:30:16
going to be less people and h to make it um and it's the end this is this is that
00:30:22
that moment for Hollywood there it happened already but it's really happening now and you're going to see
00:30:28
enormous consolidation. The government could push it back as much as you want, but you're not farmers, by the way.
00:30:33
You're not getting $12 billion in bailouts the way Trump will do that. Um, you will not get bailouts. You will just
00:30:40
be get gone. And so, I think this this Netflix Warner thing is inevitable, Paramount. If it doesn't get is going to
00:30:46
have to merge, Comcast's going to have to buy something else. Disney's got to
00:30:49
move, you know, and all the tech companies if they want to stay in this area need more stuff for AI. Imagine a
00:30:55
world like Scott talks about this AI meter like hey I like West Wing I'd like
00:30:59
another season like they can do that they will be able to do that and it will be at first stupid and then later be
00:31:05
very good and so you're going to see all manner of stuff having to do with AI
00:31:09
being fed into all these things and you know even though the Paramount people can't give specifics of what's happening
00:31:15
because they haven't thought of it they just like to say the word AI a lot over
00:31:17
and over again. This is an industry ripe for this kind of thing. Too bad. I'm
00:31:22
sorry. I feel bad for you, but and thanks for the movies. And by the way, Wicked 375 million. Ricked. Okay.
00:31:29
Wicked, too. >> Streaming is sort of been the zeitgeist of my life. It used to be Netflix and
00:31:33
chill. And now my age, it's HBO Max and lower your expectations. >> You know, I think you're online a lot
00:31:39
more. You watch a lot of short form video. I can tell. You know, you you put them out a lot. And so do I. 100%. I
00:31:46
could watch I can't I can't sit for a show now. I like to watch them on TV. I
00:31:50
have a harder time. Although again, Plurabus, I love it. >> Oh my god. I' I've been forced to watch
00:31:55
the worst program in the world. It's with um Shiv from Succession about a kidnapping.
00:32:00
>> Oh, I heard that was good. >> Oh, it's awful. These people are so
00:32:03
awful. It's all these rich. It's like it's like a Chamber of Commerce show on
00:32:08
everyone in Chicago is rich and has amazing homes. It's like it's an ad for
00:32:11
Chicago. >> Okay, but who forced you? Who has put you a coffee or orange in front of me?
00:32:16
>> Someone keeps putting it on my [ __ ] TV and I I get drawn into it. Don't watch it.
00:32:21
>> And then and then and then I got sucked into another one. The evil or the devil
00:32:25
inside of me where I got to give it Claire Danes. >> Oh yeah. The beast in me.
00:32:30
>> Her chin should be nominated for an Oscar. Her chin starts vibrating when
00:32:34
she's emotional. >> It's literally it is her such her go-to. >> I love it. I love everything Claire
00:32:40
Jane's done is practically. Yeah. Anyway. >> Anyhow, I'm so sorry you're being forced
00:32:45
to watch these things. All right, Scott. One someday you will be. Actually, that's another trend. Uh, that will be
00:32:50
for next year. Uh, one more quick break and then it's time for predictions. Hosts choice. Okay, Scott. Now is the
00:32:57
time to make a prediction on whatever we want. The world is our oysters. By the way, you send oysters. We love them. Uh,
00:33:03
I'm going to go first. Okay. I'm going to go first. Uh, as I said, as you
00:33:08
noted, Claire Danes on the beast in me. You got Ria Seahhorn in uh Plurabus. Uh,
00:33:13
and there's a new hunting wives coming. They're not just difficult. Lesbians are
00:33:18
murderous. Okay, there is gonna there's going to be so much lesbian content.
00:33:23
Angry lesbians with guns, angry lesbians who are upset, angry lesbians who are fighting the hive mind. I just this is a
00:33:31
trend that I like. I like lesbians running [ __ ] and taking names and shutting people down. And I love Ria
00:33:40
Seahhorn on as Carol. Hello Carol is my favorite character of all time. I everyone's like, "Oh, she's such an
00:33:46
ass." And I'm like, I love her. So, more angry, dispic. Go [ __ ] yourself lesbians
00:33:54
for 2026. That's how I feel. Thank you. >> I know lesbians get divorced faster. Do
00:34:00
they show up on the second date with a U-Haul? >> Oh, stop it. Such an old trope. Now
00:34:04
we're angry with guns. You understand? We're murderers and having a lot of sex.
00:34:08
>> I didn't know you guys dated. I thought you just watched Riverdale hug for two
00:34:11
hours and then agreed never to see each other again. >> No, not these lesbians. Oh, no. Not
00:34:15
these lesbians. Go watch Hunting Wise. Can you please put that on your thing? >> I'm a big fan of uh streaming video with
00:34:21
lesbian content. Um >> well, go watch it cuz it's sexy as [ __ ] Let me just say yes. Who's in it?
00:34:28
>> Malin Arian and Britney Snow. There are guns. There is a lot of lesbian sex. The
00:34:34
way kind you like. >> I see it twice. >> I'm just saying. I'm just saying. Angry
00:34:38
gun toteen despectic. [ __ ] the hive mind. I don't like Li AI. Lesbians are the trend of
00:34:47
2026. Thank you. >> All right. Mine Mine's not as cool as this. Um >> uh best investment you don't have access
00:34:54
to is Tik Tok. >> Oh, yeah. >> Essentially, uh >> did you get Sears? Have you gotten in
00:34:59
there yet? >> Well, no. I'm a Democrat. So, >> it's going to Dell. Uh some Saudi
00:35:04
person. I forget who it's going to, but it's not going to it's not going to
00:35:08
anyone who wants it or anyone who's a Democrat. They're basically Trump's
00:35:11
forcing them >> to sell it for 14 billion. If you think about the fact that 50% of the earnings
00:35:17
have to go back to China, it's effectively a valuation of 28 billion. If you assign the same multiple that you
00:35:22
would assign to Alphabet or Meta, it's worth 120 billion. So effectively, these
00:35:27
guys are going to buy something and then get 3 to 400% return within 12 months. Um, this is pure socialism meets
00:35:35
cronyism meets autocracy. >> Uh, but again, it's You know, it's unfair for the Ellison's not to get
00:35:42
everything. Anyway, sorry. >> There you go. Um, >> that's a good one. So, you won't get
00:35:47
any. There's no way you can scooch your way in there. You usually scoot your way
00:35:50
in. >> No, >> really. >> Not on this one. >> Oh, it's only for like
00:35:55
>> Friends of Trump. Uh, >> literally ds. Yeah, it's um >> Yeah,
00:36:02
>> amazing. >> We don't have access. >> You don't even get a little bit a little
00:36:05
taste. >> Not Not even No, I I'm I'm allowed to be on TikTok. Yeah, I'm
00:36:09
>> starting to [ __ ] hate Tik Tok, by the way. >> I got to tell you, that's another
00:36:13
prediction. I think Mark Zuckerberg, it makes a better product. I hate to say it, but he
00:36:17
does. >> Yeah. You like threads and real >> They're very pleasing. They're very
00:36:22
pleasant. I have a great time. I find news. I I still like Blue Sky, too. But, uh, I have to say, uh, I
00:36:28
>> I'm on Blue Sky almost never now. I know. As >> you're yell at you a lot. They yell at
00:36:32
you. It's I'm using >> Do they yell at me? God, thank god I'm not on there. I can't handle it right
00:36:36
now. Yeah, it's the left yelling at you over there. The right is yelling us over
00:36:40
at Twitter. The right is actually threatening us over at Twitter. I dropped in the other I was like, "Oh,
00:36:45
you fuckers." Like, "Oh, go away. We don't care about you. We broke up with
00:36:49
you." >> So, just back to Tik Tok >> US at the price that these investors,
00:36:54
these Republican donors are getting it. It valuing Tik Tok US at less than this company called Extra Space Storage,
00:37:01
7-Eleven, Carnival Cruises, Ryanire >> or Kellocks. So, wow, what a great deal,
00:37:08
right? >> And if you look at this thing again, if you just do the math here, it's just
00:37:13
it's just insane what they're going to get to buy this thing at. Anyways, I'm
00:37:17
really pissed off about this. >> Let's please by all means give Warner to
00:37:20
the Ellisons because they don't get enough. >> Their their US ad revenue is 12 billion.
00:37:24
You get a a 10x multiple price of sales of Alphabet, which isn't growing as fast
00:37:28
as Tik Tok US. It's worth $120 billion, and they're getting it for 28. These
00:37:33
grifters, these gri Scott's mad he's not in on it really. Anyway, >> uh Scott, that is the show. Your
00:37:41
instructions are to go watch Hunting Wise. You'll be happy. Um please read us
00:37:46
out. >> Today's show was produced by Larara Neon, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and
00:37:49
Christine Driscoll. Ernie Todd engineered this episode. Ronnie Padaro edited the video. Thanks also to Drew
00:37:55
Bros, Miss Vera, and Dan Shalon to Shak Cross Vox Media's executive producer
00:37:58
podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York
00:38:03
Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine nymag.com/pod. We'll be back later this week for
00:38:08
another breakdown of all things tech and business. >> And Scott forgot in that energetic uh
00:38:14
departure here of this episode. Happy New Year to everybody. We've had a great
00:38:17
year this year at Pivot and we love you and we look forward to more in 2026.