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In terms of American politics, what this means is the following. JD Vance will not be president.
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>> Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Carara Swisser
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>> and I'm Scott Galloway. >> Before we get into it today, a reminder uh to check out our YouTube channel. Be
00:00:22
sure to like the videos and subscribe. We're we're into the YouTube situation and we're also in Roku. We're a lot of
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places. We've got a lot to get to today. So, uh, Donald Trump is defending his deal to end the war in Iran, saying
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critics who think he hasn't been tough enough or jealous bad people or stupid. His comments come after he signed the
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memorandum of understanding or MOU at the Palace of Versailles on Wednesday, which was the most epic troll by Macron
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I've ever seen. He lured him there with gold and uh and it's the place of course
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where the Germans uh signed uh the the World War I accord. Um so let's talk about the treaty of Versailles. Let's
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talk about some of the terms of this agreement. The straight of Hermuz will open immediately and Iran will be
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allowed to sell its oil freely. Also they'll get some sort of fees which didn't exist before. Every it's exactly
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the Obama deal but worse. Essentially the US will end I mean Obama got a lot more stuff and paid a lot le paid a lot
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less and nobody died and there wasn't the impact on the economy globally and in the United States. The US will end
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sanctions on Iran and unfreeze assets. The $300 billion fund will be established to help rebuild Iran, though
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Trump says the US will not contribute to it. Iran agrees to not procure or develop a nuclear weapon, but before um
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the Obama agreement was much more stringent. Um the deal is set to be officially signed on Friday is not a
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final agreement. Doesn't seem much has been agreed at all. Uh the two sides have 60 days to negotiate a longer term
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deal. Either side can walk away. the Republicans are are not liking it and those who are trying to defend it are
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pretzling themselves. You know, he's lost the support of all manner of people including Ben Shapiro, uh Tucker
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Carlson, of course, um lots of Republicans, Bill Cassidy and many others are like, "This is a piece of
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[ __ ] deal." They're saying it out loud. Um uh Senator Kennedy, um you know, the
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Demar don't have to say anything. Um and even Fox News is attacking him. Thoughts
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on the situation? Because Ben, someone Donnie Deutsch said, you know, I was for this, you know, this attack on Iran, but
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now this is like [ __ ] He reminded me of you, the way he talked about it. But any thoughts?
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>> Yeah, I've got to own it. I I thought there was real legitimate rationale for
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military action. Um, there's just no doubt about it. Hillary Clinton talks about the dominion of failure, and I
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find this fascinating. >> Isn't that great? >> Explain that for the people. The dominion of failure. Well, just to
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relate to it on an individual level, have you ever been at a, you know, you're in a conversation with family or
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dinner and you say something and someone disagrees and you double down and then you find yourself two months later
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defending and going deeper into a position that you've probably realized was wrong.
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>> Yeah. >> But you've doubled down and you keep going further and further. And unfortunately, the American public
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rewards that doubling down as opposed to being contemplative and recognizing that
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a step back from the wrong direction is a step in the right direction. >> Right. Right. Correct.
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>> And we basically told our politicians, never admit you're wrong. Double down.
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Never acknowledge that things have not worked out the way we'd hoped and we need to change course. And just to go to
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the quoteunquote memo of understanding, let's start with the term memo of understanding,
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>> right? >> Memo of understanding is a business term. And I have written and received dozens
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of memos of understanding. And this is what they are. If you're thinking usually in a business context about
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acquiring a firm or doing a large deal, you outline general parameters. Okay, this is what you do.
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>> Specific, correct? Not >> well, you you identify ranges. This is what you do. This is what we do. We're
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interested in acquiring you and this is kind of a valuation range subject to the
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following conditions. These are the people who would stick around. you kind of outline to basically say we need to
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at least agree on some basics before we get serious and start conducting diligence and papering a deal. And it
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means nothing. I would bet that somewhere between a third and maybe 50% of memos of understanding are
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consummated in a legally enforcable deal. And that's the same thing here. It is this is obvious. They said Trump
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wanted an agreement and they said, "We'll give you a memo of understanding because we know you're on your way out.
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This will not be enforceable. I don't even think we can get into a conversation around how terrible this
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deal is, including the fact that it doesn't include random inspections. It's gone from 1.5 billion in the JCPOA to
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300 billion." And that sounds like you see opportunity for Whit Cough and Kushner.
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>> Yes. the fact that they've essentially have not have a have have an opening to
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start charging tolls again. This isn't an equivalent deal. This is a much worse deal. But here's the thing. It's not
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even a deal. Cara, >> it's a memo of I don't know if you heard >> sketchy, >> but this morning it was announced that
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Mexico has presented the US with a memo of understanding and they're taking back
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Phoenix. >> I mean, this is so this is here is the reality. I like Phoenix, but go ahead.
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Sorry. >> Withdrew from a deal, fought a stupid war, or apparently a stupid war with 13
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people dead, hundreds injured, thousands of Iranians killed. Let's not forget those school girls that got accidentally
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caught, >> alienated allies, >> uh weakened our relationship, Gulf nations, >> provided accidentally Iran with insight
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into a weapon more powerful than a nuclear arm, destabilized the global economy such that we could get a much
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worse deal. In terms of American politics, what this means is the following. JD Vance will not be
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president. Oh no, Trump keeps trying to hang it around his neck. >> The president is throwing Vice President
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Vance under the bus. >> No, he's just he's just his servant to go there and do it.
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>> Basically, he has sent the equivalent of a I don't know, a reputational mob and
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noose for the latest vice president. He is hanging Vice President Vance. >> He's pencing him. He's pencing him. the
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most conservative Republicans >> are saying this is a terrible deal, >> right? The comparison between the
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comparative list between the Obama deal and this and you're like what? we lost all this stuff like what why um and you
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know he had the advantage when he just say bombed some of the the areas right he had the what we're watching you kind
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of thing happening which I think was strong I agree with you when the original bombing of those um even if
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they didn't take them out they didn't completely and totally I don't know why he had to say that he could have just
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said we we set them back again and we're going to keep doing that if they keep developing nuclear weapons um but that
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was good and then he couldn't resist because of the ep as you said the person on his shoulder is Jeffrey
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Epstein and so he wanted to do something after Venezuela he felt emboldened um and did this like this is this is to me
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I don't think I don't think you're right he is hanging JD Vance out to dry but this is hanging on him this doesn't come
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off >> oh I agree he won't be able to escape >> this he doesn't escape it he can't blame
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it on anybody he's looked >> he's in charge >> let me just tell you he looked real old
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in at the G7 seven like they kept moving him around and he was sort of wandering
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more than us he usually wanders but he was wandering he looked sickly he looked cankily his hands looked like suddenly
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there's all these cuts on his hands um you know Mcronone was wander moving him around like he was an elderly parent at
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a at a old folks home which I thought Mcronone did on purpose because he looked fantastic right he was fit and
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lively and stuff like that but Mcronone was looking like he was his friend but made him look elderly sitting next to
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him and I think he was. And then the Versailles thing. Oh my god. Did nobody on his team understand the symbolism and
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the marketing of that thing? And I know only I mean it's just he's so dumb. Like
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that's the whole thing. Like he just continues to look bad. I think this will all hang on him. You're seeing the po
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the polling is off down and you know they think Georgia is going to be going to be all Democrat which is unheard of
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that Texas is now absolutely in play. He's gonna have the worst two years of his life after November. Just the worst.
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I think it's going to go on and on and on. This is one thing. The algae is another. The Kennedy Center, it's all
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like this old man. Like I I I think we have to seriously talk about whether he had a stroke or not. And you know, we
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did this with Biden and I think it's fully appropriate to discuss it at this point.
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>> We don't agree on the non-important stuff. I think I think Trump looks remarkably robust for a guy of his age.
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I don't I don't see any degradation or I should say any change in his cognitive ability. And his cognitive ability at 76
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was exceptionally poor judgment from a narcissist who doesn't care about anything but himself and coming across
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as strong and that he is arguably or verifiably a terrible business person. I I think he's the same person he was four
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or eight years ago and that is someone with absolutely terrible judgment that that diminishes our power soft and hard
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abroad. Let's talk specifically about the JCPOA. It required Iran, this is a deal that that the Obama administration
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and Iran signed. It required Iran to reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by 98% dismantle 2/3 of its centrifuges cap
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enrichment at 3.7% and accept IAEA monitoring. The 2026U contains no nuclear constraints at all.
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Just a pledge never to build a weapon. A pledge from the IRGC. Oh, that's worth a
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lot. Which Iran already made when it signed the non-prololiferation treaty in 1970.
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The key here, quite frankly, is verification and inspection. And let's compare the two. The JCPOA had IAEA
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inspectors, continuous monitoring, and 24-day access provisions. Theou defers all of this to a 60-day negotiating
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window with no guarantees. Think of this in consumer no leverage. We have >> we are paying more for less. Theou comes
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with a $25 billion price tag, released assets, plus a $300 billion reconstruction framework, exceeding the
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JCPOA's cost while delivering fewer nuclear concessions. This, in two words, is a [ __ ] disaster for the American
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brand. And it I I I got to be honest, I'm going to enjoy watching all these acolytes and and
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>> well, they're not and weirdos try to try to explain this one away. Well, they
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are. Only a few are, but many more are being quite explain. Like, you didn't have to hear a Democrat yesterday
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because all the Republicans were saying it, right? They were like they I was like I was listening to the television.
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I was packing for this trip to France and I'm like, "Oh, another Democrat." And I looked and it was a Republican
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senator. It was like so vehement, right? It was so except for one who was trying
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to defend it, but it was very hard. Like you could see them. Fox News has been very tough for and of course Wall Street
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Journal is like strafing him um which is a Murdoch property. So I I don't know. I
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feel like all of the and I I I'm going to disagree with you on his health. I think something happened and he he he
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can he's still very looks robust but his physical demeanor and the way he wandered around
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>> all the specialists he's seeing. >> Yeah. all the specialists and I felt like Macron knows exactly what's
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happening because he because he kept he kept mo you it's how you move an elderly
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person if you like as my mom got got less mobile she was in that zone that Trump is in and she was mobile and very
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robust as you know my mother never shuts up um but it was like and then it started to crumble essentially but we'll
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we'll see anyway it's >> I just want to I just want to briefly and you put out a great chart on this
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but at the end of the JCPOA When he tore when he tore up the agreement, Iran had
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enriched uranium to 3.7%. It is now 60%. Just a short step away from weapons grade material. Uh US
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military leverage given away. This memo of understanding commits the US to not increasing its regional forces with
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Washington or the US withdrawing forces within 30 days of a final agreement. We typically that's not negotiable for us.
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One of our key advantages is we have these things called aircraft carriers that we can put anywhere in the world to
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deliver violence on an unprecedented level, which is an enormous advantage that we're giving up. The other thing
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that people aren't talking about or the press isn't talking about >> is that the JCPOA was multilateral.
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>> It was signed by the US, the EU, the UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia. Whereas this is bilateral. So if they
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walk away from this, it doesn't impair their ability to sell oil, do business with all these nations. Whereas the
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JCPOA was the entire Western world and China and Russia saying you have to stick to this agreement.
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>> He can't clean fountains and he can't do wars, you know. And then the thing he
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said that that press conference, go watch that press conference, Scott, you will have another thought about his
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mental health. >> Um and uh he goes, "Well, we'll just bomb them." And I'm like, "What? Like
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that's your plan? Like we'll just bomb them if they don't keep up?" That it's just it it's it's just it's so
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embarrassing. And I, you know, the Republicans know it and I think he's going to he's he's in for a world of
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hurt and Epstein's roaring its way back. Of course, the New York Times did a great piece. Um, very briefly, I want to
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say the Ukrainian bombings in Moscow. Whoa. >> Absolutely. Well, >> that has shifted rather significantly.
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Putin's the other one that's got to be on the ropes, I would imagine. As I said, I thought I'd heard from people
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that he was. >> Well, well, I mean, just a couple thoughts. One, that is the most exciting
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positive thing happening in the world right now. I agree >> is that the west has a huge victory.
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Europe deserves incredible credit for being steadfast which is in their interest economically
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and also the learning from both Iran and the war in Ukraine is the following. Our
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military budget should be cut in half and it should be focused on one word asymmetric warfare.
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>> Asymmetric warfare. Yeah. >> It is expensive platforms that risk too much where we can't. There's no way
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we're sending 50 B2s into a hostile area. Because America doesn't have the stomach or the money to lose
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>> on high Mars or lose its soldiers. Whereas if you build >> basically what are go-karts or
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motorcycles with bombs on them and you send 50 out and 48 get shot down but two make it through. This is totally changed
00:15:08
the game of warfare. And how do we turn chicken salad into chicken salad fricacy
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or something even better? Is this is the opportunity and America needs this. This
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is how [ __ ] stupid the administration is. Oh, wait. Warfare is changing. Let's
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increase expensive platforms and the monetization of our military and defense by increasing our military budget by 400
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billion. We should be thinking about opportunities to take our military budget down to 500 billion and making it
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more lethal and more deadly with asymmetric warfare. That is the learning here. And they aren't taking the
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learning. >> Yeah, they aren't. No, they aren't. Anyway, I think it's a disastrous week
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for Trump as you and I a truly disastrous one. Anyway, Scott, the reflecting pool. I wanted to ignore
00:15:50
this, but it's crazy. The paint's coming off today. This $14 million renovation,
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they put this American flag blue on it, and they p Trump insisted on it. When there's other problems with that thing,
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it's for years and years, you know, like all fountains, all pools have problems.
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Um, and this is a big freaking pool. Um, but it's usually just the the stone color. And he had painted it this color
00:16:13
and and it's turned algae green. There's algae everywhere now. The paint is coming off. There were pictures this
00:16:20
morning. The interior department says it was a residual algae from the supply lines that were sitting there while the
00:16:24
pool is being renovated. Most people say this is nonsense. Uh any pool, all these
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pool people are weighing in, which I'm enjoying very much. Um they're deploying quote high-tech nanobubble ozone
00:16:35
technology to combat this except workers were seen pouring bottles of hydrogen peroxide into the pool earlier this
00:16:41
week, like by hand. Um, some experts say the pool's new color has worsened the pre-existing issues. Darker blue absorbs
00:16:48
sunlight, increasing water temperature, making the pool ripe for algae. Um, apparently there's phosphates in it.
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It's like I I it's ridiculous and what a [ __ ] mess up because they picked the wrong people to do this. They shouldn't
00:17:00
have painted it. It's very much Trump sort of like lack of transparency, overly expensive, and badly done. But I
00:17:07
want to talk about bad messaging because this is the reflecting pool which is ahead of the 250 celebration. And that's
00:17:13
a center of along with the Washington Monument, the Lincoln Memorial. You know that those are symbolically beautiful
00:17:19
and actually much visited during the 4th of July and it's going to look like [ __ ] Talk about it from a brand. Is
00:17:25
there a branding perspective? Because it's getting a lot of traction and usually I think these things are silly,
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but this one I'm like, yeah, this really he [ __ ] this up like royally in a way
00:17:34
that seems ridiculous. Anyway, your thoughts? >> Yeah, look, the the analogy here, the
00:17:39
symbolism is pretty strong. I would argue that the reflecting pool is actually what doing its job and
00:17:43
reflecting what's going on 500 ft away. I by the way I stared into a reflecting pool for too long and it made me think.
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Um I don't uh I I feel like it's been staring the reflecting pool has been staring at
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Congress for several hundred years and it's just finally given up. >> Yeah. >> And it went full moss. Um I I don't know
00:18:05
what do >> it's I think symbolically it's for a lot of people most kids have gone to the
00:18:11
reflecting like Americans when they go on trips to Washington if you get to go to on a trip to Washington as many
00:18:15
people do it's just like everything about it is like can you do anything that doesn't suck like it's it's sort of
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even though it's just the pool it's the easiest thing to fix in all the many things that are hard in this country and
00:18:32
to [ __ ] it up this royally is really quite something. I think you know it's it does it's a messaging of sort of this
00:18:38
old man who is addled who overspends our money. It's all tax money and we're going to have to pay for whether it's
00:18:45
cleaning up the East Wing, whether these physical things and you had talked about
00:18:48
this the the destruction of the East Wing or what he did at the Kennedy Center with the name coming down. It's
00:18:54
just it's all like destruction we're going to have to clean up after this, you know, this elderly toddler
00:19:00
essentially. >> Yeah. I was asked I was on a podcast yesterday and they asked me what I
00:19:04
thought about the reflecting pool in DC turning green and I said no notes. I mean it's
00:19:12
the metaphor the analogy whatever it's just it's just perfect. >> Anyway, algae bad messaging but because
00:19:19
just it just sort of piles on. Okay Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back we'll discuss SpaceX's busy
00:19:25
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goelport.com/pivot. Scott, we're back. Let's go through a rundown of the latest SpaceX news. As we
00:21:37
tape, shares are down 6.5% to $179, valuing the company at 2.35 trillion, which is what it was when we last
00:21:45
talked. Shares surged around 50% in the first days of trading, making SpaceX the
00:21:49
fifth largest company by market cap, surpassing Amazon. Tuesday was the first day that investors could buy SpaceX
00:21:55
options contracts and about 1.8 million contracts changed hands. And amidst all this, SpaceX announced it will acquire
00:22:01
AI coding startup Curser for $60 billion in an allst transaction. I thought this
00:22:05
was rather smart. Cursor's annual sales recently hit 4 billion, making it a reliable source of revenue. It also gets
00:22:12
them up to speed in enterprise. it moves. It takes the shitty product of Grock and makes it, you know, this is a
00:22:18
smart move. This is a very typical Elon move is to buy uh something to get ahead. And I thought that was smart. Um
00:22:25
in another win for Musk, the DOJ told the Mississippi federal court that it should throw out a lawsuit against XAI
00:22:30
saying it it has the right to run dozens of gas uh burning turbines despite not having permits for him. I'm not sure
00:22:36
this is a victory for Musk. I think this is going to come back to bite him. Before we get to our own thoughts, let's
00:22:41
hear from our friend and founding partner of Puck, Bill Cohen. >> Hey, uh, Karen Scott. So SpaceX, I mean,
00:22:47
I think that, you know, Scott has been nailing this for, you know, weeks now, which is that it's one great business,
00:22:55
Starlink, which is a fabulous business and kind of revolutionizing the world in many ways, and one glamorous business,
00:23:03
the rocket business, uh, and one lousy business, uh, uh, X and X AI that they crammed in there, uh, and one out
00:23:14
astounding, uh, valuation. uh with you know infinite multiples because only Starlink is really
00:23:21
profitable uh and uh it's just uh the latest example frankly of the Wall Street hype machine that you know is so
00:23:31
so good at uh hyping up uh stocks that um and companies that need to raise huge amounts of capital. I mean, you got to
00:23:40
give Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley credit for uh, you know, raising $85 billion of equity and uh, getting this
00:23:48
thing launched at a huge uh, valuation, 2.5 trillion now uh, exceeding Amazon uh, and it's been trading up uh,
00:23:58
although for the last couple of days it's been trading down. So maybe we've uh at a minor peak and maybe as usual uh
00:24:06
it'll be the retail investors that get left holding the bag here. >> And of course uh a bunch of lockups come
00:24:13
off over the next couple of months. Scott, how do you feel now? And talk about the acquisition of Cursor. Uh I
00:24:19
think it's smart. I do. I think the the thing in the data centers is a mistake on the government's part to do that
00:24:24
because I think people are truly mad. But your thoughts? Look, the IPO is nothing short of remarkable and the fact
00:24:30
that it it's gone up so much. I'm going to talk about touch today, but I think it's up what is it up 30 or 40% since it
00:24:36
initially priced. Kind of the game now is for the first whatever 100 years of the
00:24:43
market CEOs were compensated to underpromise and overd deliver. And the last 30 or 40 years or 20 years at
00:24:51
least, it's been overpromise. Get your stock up based on these incredible projections of the future and then use
00:24:58
that cheap capital to pull the f future forward by investing at a rate no one else can match. Amazon
00:25:04
>> using this inflated stock >> or go acquire companies. So, for examp um they're buying it at a multiple of
00:25:19
what is it? Uh I think they're buying it at a multiple of 15 times revenues. So when SpaceX is trading at 130 times
00:25:28
revenues, it's accretive. So, a $60 billion acquisition, which is a lot of money, but that gives them a really
00:25:37
strong company that a really strong AI coding tool that has 26% share for a 3.5% dilution of that crazy $2.5
00:25:47
trillion market cap. So, >> and it makes the Grock story go away, the Grock failure story go away. I mean
00:25:53
when you are sitting on a company a stock that's at 130 times revenues you tell every investment bank and you tell
00:26:01
your corporate dev people anything that makes sense buy it. >> What would you give me a name what
00:26:07
should he buy? >> Oh [ __ ] car I don't know enough about the AI. >> He's going to shove Tesla in there as I
00:26:11
said he would. >> Well yeah but that's not an acquisition. That's him stuffing. >> What would you Is there
00:26:16
>> That's adopting one of the dwarfs so you can continue to sleep with Snow White. I
00:26:20
think we're going to see a lot I think the M&A space I think I think if you're any investment bank and says I have this
00:26:27
cool AI tool that would help shore up this component of of X AI they get the calls returned right now because the way
00:26:36
to think of it is if you're looking for a house in San Francisco and it cost $2 million
00:26:41
and you're with and it's a lot of money and you're worth 3 million it's worth you you really think about it if
00:26:48
overnight you're worth30 30 million. You're like, "Honey, buy it." >> Right. Exactly.
00:26:52
>> So everything in the world looks cheap to them right now. >> Right. It does >> because almost anything is technically
00:26:59
accreative and adds to earnings because nothing out there is trading at 120 times revenues.
00:27:04
>> Yeah. Like they could get perplexity. They could get >> perplexity. I Yeah, that'd be an
00:27:08
interesting one. Yeah, they will paper over their problems with Grock which are rather significant which you may
00:27:15
>> regulators regulators won't get it through but if they could they should buy they could acquire Mistl I mean
00:27:21
>> that's a good idea >> that would not get past regulators but what could they not buy right now I mean
00:27:28
there's rocket sc does does rocket lab or whatever the [ __ ] that company is does that have any technology they could
00:27:33
use they are looking at everything right now >> yeah they've got to yeah there's some
00:27:38
really interesting stuff. The thing is he doesn't want to create sort of like a basket of nothing fits. It's got to be
00:27:44
strategic like in terms of what like so cursor gets them enterprise business. It
00:27:49
gets them, you know, highly talented people. It gets them a product people like that are people are using, you
00:27:55
know, that's what they got to look at. They can't just buy anything. Um because I think it his big mistake with Grock
00:28:02
was that he like oversted it with geniuses and then it was sort of like a hot mess essentially. Um, and this is
00:28:09
more his way, the way he bought Tesla from the the creators, you know, of it. He didn't make Tesla. He bought it from
00:28:15
their inventors. And he does that with a lot of stuff. And I think that's what he
00:28:20
does best. He's a little Henry Fordike in a lot of ways if you think about it versus an Edison, right? Everyone looks
00:28:25
at him like as if he's he's an inventor, but he's not. He's a he's a he's a collector, right? A really good
00:28:32
collector. >> He hasn't been an acquirer typically, though. He tries to go vertical. He
00:28:37
does, but he buys things that are he sees things that are promising and buys them. He doesn't found them
00:28:42
>> in a lot of ways, you know. So, I think this is more his cursor. I thought, okay, maybe he's laid off the ketamine
00:28:49
or something cuz that's a good idea, right? That kind of thing. Um, and it's not it's it's just the right thing. It's
00:28:55
sort of like if you put them in charge of their AI the way he put Gwen Shotwell in charge of SpaceX, you really could do
00:29:03
well. and he keeps he just wander someone described he comes in he kicks some cans and he leaves and that's what
00:29:09
they prefer essentially um and so I think that's probably good to put it in the hands of better people than him at
00:29:16
this particular thing um and that's a smart move it is you're right he could buy anything
00:29:20
>> the bankers taking um anthropic and open AI out are looking at SpaceX and thinking okay that
00:29:28
manufactured scarcity thing was really smart how do we do it I bet they're actually reducing the size of their
00:29:34
offerings cuz they go this this a ton of people rushing through a small door. >> Wow.
00:29:40
>> Of of smaller float and increasing demand. Wow. Did that work out well for those guys.
00:29:45
>> And then those lockups come out right when they were going to go public. The SpaceX lockups come out in the fall in
00:29:51
September. I think a lot of them it goes to I don't know six 40% something. There's a big there's
00:29:57
a big flow. >> There's all sorts of things. If it trades above a certain amount for a
00:30:01
certain number of days, there's soft lockups if you're on if you bought the stock.
00:30:05
>> The big ones come in the fall and which is right when these people are going to
00:30:08
go public, right? Presumably, which it means a possible decline. Like that's the thing. That's when you would see the
00:30:13
decline. >> Yeah. But there's there's got to be everyone has just thrown their numbers
00:30:17
in the trash bin and said, "I would love to be anthropic going public to say, oh
00:30:22
my gosh, if you like this company at 120 times revenues, we're growing. We're not
00:30:27
growing 24% a year. We're growing 400% a year and you can buy us for the low low
00:30:32
price of 40 times revenues, right? >> I would love to be an IR for um Anthropic. The weird thing, and I've
00:30:40
been I talked to a lot of companies about their AI efforts. What's going to be weird for open AI is what you're
00:30:48
seeing a lot of in corporations right now is they are they're blaming the model. A lot of corporations right now
00:30:57
are swapping out uh chat GPT and OpenAI for anthropic. And quite frankly, some of it is not Open AI's fault. What it is
00:31:07
is all these companies who are not seeing the return that was initially promised. They're
00:31:11
>> blaming it on the initial >> are blaming the model. >> Yeah. They're blaming the
00:31:15
>> swapping out Open AI for the hotter brand right now, which is anthropic. So, it's going to be very interesting to see
00:31:21
>> the numbers that got leaked of Open AI. Whoa. Whoa. They lose money. Wow. >> Yeah. uh they're burning a they're
00:31:26
burning a lot of capital. It's going to be very very interesting to compare um OpenAI and Anthropics revenues. Now,
00:31:35
OpenAI's to be fair, OpenAI's losses were somewhat exaggerated by the conversion from nonprofit to forprofit
00:31:41
and compensation costs. >> Good for you to say. >> But once somebody smart like Bill Cohen
00:31:45
actually looks into it and goes apples to apples, >> what'll be most interesting is to see
00:31:49
how much momentum anthropic has gained and how much momentum Open AI has lost. because the tone for every valuations
00:31:59
went up. >> Their first day >> valuations are up 40 or 50% because of SpaceX. And even smaller guys, there's
00:32:07
this really cool company out of Italy called Bending Spoons. It's a private equity company that's about to come
00:32:13
public and they did a roll up of like Vimeo and oh >> AOL and um uh uh >> like Bending Spoons person
00:32:24
>> basically they found a bunch of orphans we transfer Evernote Eventbrite Meetup
00:32:32
all these all these kind of companies that that were sort of left for dead or >> covered for years. Yeah. And they've
00:32:38
they've streamlined the back end, which is what private equity does, and they're
00:32:42
taking them public. I love this company. I think it's a really smart idea. They probably have to look at that.
00:32:47
>> They probably got them at really good prices >> and and these are companies >> like how they cleaned up Yahoo. Like how
00:32:53
they cleaned up Yahoo, right? How >> Exactly. And but every every banker and every company going public right now
00:33:00
because of SpaceX, >> I mean, there's an argument that they get hurt because there's not enough
00:33:06
capital out there. But I'd go the other way. I would say everything looks cheap now in the context of SpaceX.
00:33:11
>> I think Bill is right. The retail investors will be left holding the bag when when it comes to pass that you know
00:33:18
a few earnings in. Um all right, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about Snap's new smart
00:33:24
glasses. This is a treat for Scott. I know. >> This is advertiser content from Harvey
00:33:29
AI. We have a choice over who we work with and who we don't. Specifically, who we allow to advertise and who we don't.
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And for those of you who watch my content, I am not an AI catastrophist. I'm an AI optimist. I think it's going
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00:34:44
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for law firms themselves but internally for general counsels at companies. Harvey is AI tailored for law. You can
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navon.com. Scott, we're back and there's a new wearable that I know you'll be rushing
00:35:40
out to buy. Uh Snap just announced it's augmented reality smart glasses called Specs. Uh Evans Spiegel called it a way
00:35:47
to bring computing into the world and make it more human. Though the style-wise wired notes, the glasses are
00:35:52
chunky. I would think that's that's a perfect word actually. And at a price point of 2,195,
00:35:59
they're well above the cost of most meta Ray-B bands which are a couple hundred.
00:36:02
Um, and then though it's still about a,000 cheaper than Apple's Vision Pro, which people think they're going to get
00:36:08
rid of and replace with their glass version that'll compete with the Ray-B bands, investors don't seem to be
00:36:13
impressed. Snapchat fell nearly 10% on Tuesday after the glasses were unveiled. I mean, I I like I very much like Evan
00:36:20
Spiegel, but that was bad him putting them on. I can't say anything else. It just he's a handsome man and it
00:36:26
immediately rendered him unhandsome and they looked kind of ridiculous and pretending otherwise um seems silly.
00:36:33
They're And by the way, Meta's version of these glasses which have more utility and they have to be this big and chunky.
00:36:40
Um uh the Ray-B bands don't almost have no utility. Just a few things. But the ones that have more utility with like
00:36:47
mapping and uh all kinds of things like as if you're you have a cell phone in your hand are very heavy no matter how
00:36:54
you slice it. So your thoughts on the chunky glasses? >> I've never This is the first time in my
00:36:59
life I've ever seen an image of Evan Spiegel and thought I'm cooler than Evans Spiegel. $2,200 for 4 hours of
00:37:05
battery life, bulky frames from a company that has never turned a profit. Let's go. I mean this is a terrible
00:37:13
thing to say. I've never been a fan of Snap. by Visato with Subscale. I think Evan is an innovator. I'm glad he's a
00:37:18
billionaire. He seems like a lovely guy. He is a lovely guy. I've met him. Lovely
00:37:22
guy. Uh this is the beginning and the end of Snap as an independent company. This thing is dead on arrival. It makes
00:37:27
a mixed mixed reality headset from Tim Cook look like a viable product. This is >> uh I mean I don't know if you've heard
00:37:36
I'm not a big fan of these wearables. >> I'm looking forward to seeing what Apple
00:37:39
comes in with a a lighter version. I am looking forward, but they're very chunky. Have you tried these on? I have.
00:37:45
I've tried the specs and >> Oh, no. I'm not I'm not part of the in crowd, the cool crowd. This is where
00:37:51
it's all headed. It's all headed to AirPods with AI and cameras built into them.
00:37:55
>> Yeah. >> And maybe there'll be some cool little things, sunglasses. But here's the
00:38:01
problem. Snap doesn't have the capital because because what Meta can do is Meta can burn $60 billion
00:38:10
on a failed product and it's like a speed bump. Uh this product is overpriced, underengineered
00:38:19
because Snap whatever it is 6 or 8 billion mark cap doesn't have the capital to compete in the hardware space
00:38:25
>> and you can't make those smaller. I mean from what I understand they got a lot
00:38:28
packed in there. you know, even even the Ray-B bands are a little heavy that I don't wear them because I find them like
00:38:34
they're heavier than my glasses and so and they have limited features like limited limited features. And so it's
00:38:40
like take a picture, record something. I I think one of the things, you know, recognition is important. I think you
00:38:47
know like if you were blind or other things like who is that very helpful that kind of stuff with limited features
00:38:54
is great but if you want anything really substantive like and I and actually when
00:38:59
you put them on and look through them it's cool cuz the room becomes like I saw one thing with the specs this was
00:39:06
many years ago actually um they brought it to my house and I tried them on and they were so heavy they were ridiculous
00:39:12
but when you look through them there was the planets in front of you and you could walk through the planets and it
00:39:18
was beautiful. Like I have to say that was cool and I was like how can we get to this kind of thing. So I I I for the
00:39:26
first time I understood the planets. I know it sounds dumb because they were swirling around me and I was like how do
00:39:31
you create this in a way that is light? And I don't think you can. I think you kind of have to have some sort of
00:39:38
holographic room or something that you live in or your room has cameras. Um, but this idea that you can have it all
00:39:45
from the glasses means you have to wear these chunky glasses and but when you're
00:39:50
in it, it is quite lovely. It's just the the I don't know how they're going to make these light and easy to wear. You
00:39:57
know, they're they're in the movies. They're always Iron Man always has a pair that looks pretty cool. But
00:40:01
>> there's military applications, there's commercial applications, but from a consumer standpoint, these glasses and
00:40:06
these three it's always been like it's always been like going to the planetarium at Griffith Park, which I
00:40:11
used to do with my college buddies. would get ridiculously [ __ ] high. Go to the planetarium and think, "This is
00:40:15
amazing. We got to do this again in another 24 months." >> Yeah. >> I mean, this
00:40:19
>> that's a really >> it's just not >> Yeah. >> The commercial application is the most
00:40:24
ubiquitous screen in the phone, I mean, in the world, your iPhone, that you can hold up to something and use AR, not VR.
00:40:31
And then where the the only wearable in my opinion that's going to going to really take off is the one that's
00:40:36
already taken off, and that is AirPods. And the no I mean keep in mind specs Snap launched specs and they are an
00:40:44
innovator in 2016 for 130 bucks and nobody bought them. So naturally the solution was to make them 15 times more
00:40:52
expensive and way uglier. >> Yeah sort of look like the Ray-B bands. I'll tell you that they definitely do.
00:40:58
>> This is dead on this is dead on arrival specs. Yeah, they're early. >> This is dead on arrival. Snap is an
00:41:03
innovative subscale company that should be searching for an acquirer right now. >> Yeah. Who would buy them either?
00:41:09
>> I don't know. I don't I don't know if I don't know if Meta is allowed to. I don't I don't know. It's probably
00:41:15
>> because he's the chief product officer for many years. >> Even despite the fact the stock is now
00:41:19
90% or whatever it is in the last 5 years, it's still not $6 billion is not chump change.
00:41:24
>> Yeah. Remember, he was offered a ton of money to be bought by Zuckerber. I think
00:41:27
it was in the million. It was in this area. >> Yeah. I think he was offered three billion and
00:41:32
now it's worth six or eight. But if it had been three billion in Facebook stock, that would be worth 30 or 50
00:41:37
billion now. >> Yeah. No, I know. Anyway, uh, good try, Evan, but really, you don't look good in
00:41:41
those glasses. I'm sorry. You don't. I like you, but may tell the truth. All right, Scott. One more quick break.
00:41:47
We'll be back for predictions. Support for the show comes from Quint. It's really hard to get everything that
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taxes, fees, and restrictions apply. See Mint Mobile for details. >> Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction.
00:44:03
Um, I have to say, can I make one quick prediction? I was really struck by how, and I was just on The View, and I like
00:44:09
those ladies of the View, but I thought they did a fantastic job with that interview with um um
00:44:15
>> Vice President >> J Vance. I thought they did a great job. And I have to say, because I'm thinking
00:44:20
like someone was like, "TV's over?" I'm like, >> "Is all TV over or can you innovate TV?"
00:44:25
And when you see things like that, you're like, they created a viral moment that was also substantive.
00:44:31
There are ways to innovate in the broadcast space. I think not secular cuz secularly it's going down, but when I
00:44:40
saw that, I'm like, there would be a way to do this that was like they did a great they showed you could make
00:44:45
products that are really people like and I think it was viewed by a lot of people. that did like a huge uh social
00:44:52
thing and I was just like good like what would you do to innovate television was
00:44:56
really it made me start thinking and I have to say I pay compliments to them because that's not where you expect I
00:45:02
think the best interview of him was done I have to say of all all of them and I thought they asked exactly the right
00:45:07
questions they had the amount of fairness and um fairness and quality and also had a lot of good side eyes and and
00:45:16
Anna had the best side eyes but it was it was well done I have to say. So, I predict more of that.
00:45:22
>> Yeah, I agree with you, though. I I I thought they they did as good a job as they were very respectful. They were
00:45:29
pushed back when it was appropriate. I thought he did I thought he did the best he could with the hand he's been built
00:45:36
or dealt, I should say. I don't, you know, he was, you know, kudos to him. He wants to be president. Kudos to him. You
00:45:42
got to go into the lion's den. He did. >> And I thought he was actually, in a weird way, I thought it was a win for
00:45:48
both of them. I thought he came off as >> was well done. >> More human. >> Yeah, I thought it was well done. Here's
00:45:53
the problem. He's what they should The only question they didn't ask him is the one they asked Kamla. How are what would
00:45:58
you separate yourself from? >> Oh, it's a great question. >> That's the one I would do differently.
00:46:03
What would you do differently? >> I would ask the I would ask exactly the same. >> That's exactly right.
00:46:07
>> That that would have killed him. He could because he'd have to have the same answer Kla did, which is not a thing. I
00:46:13
can't think of a thing. He can't he couldn't say anything is the thing. So that would have been the killer
00:46:20
question. Sadly I was not there anyway. >> There you go. He wouldn't come on if he
00:46:25
were there. I don't think. Um anyways. Uh okay. So my my prediction is and I've sort of already made it an activist is
00:46:31
going to show up in 47 either to sell or spin the specs division. They've spent three and a half billion over the past
00:46:39
decade on their fever dreams of a wearable with no real return and they spend about a third of their adjusted
00:46:46
IBITA on specs per year and and better capitalized competitors including Apple and Meta are struggling to make this
00:46:54
product category work and if they spun or shut down their specs division it's actually it's not a great business but
00:47:02
it's a good business and that is Snap for all of its issues reason being subscale is only one of four scaled
00:47:08
social networks. It has a billion monthly active users and nearly a half a billion daily active users, said my
00:47:15
children. >> Yeah, mine too. My kids, my sons use it. >> Still like it. Snap has over 6 billion
00:47:21
in revenue. It's still growing 10% a year and it has a billion of subscription revenue growing 60% a year.
00:47:28
If Snap if Snap were able to achieve Reddit's forward revenue multiples, it would be worth three and a half X what
00:47:36
it is today. So anyways, I think there's an activist play around saying to Evan,
00:47:42
you have got to stop with the spec [ __ ] and either spin that into a separate company for other dumb people to
00:47:48
finance, but the core business is a good business and you settled it with a shitty business and you don't have the
00:47:55
capital to do that. Unlike these other companies that could go play in traffic, you can't you have to be more
00:48:00
disciplined than this, Evan. And the person or the entity that's going to impose that discipline will be an
00:48:06
activist that comes in and buys 5 to 10 percent of the company and says, "Shut this down or spin it." I think you're
00:48:12
going to see that in the next, >> you know, I always go to the I always go to the same people, but there's
00:48:17
activists everywhere now. >> Yeah, you're right. That's >> you're about to see quite frankly,
00:48:21
you're about to see 20 new hedge funds from former SpaceX, Anthropic, and Open AI employees. Do you you know
00:48:29
what I'm saying? I was I had a dinner with a group of friends last night, my friends Fernando and Tony and Stephen
00:48:36
last night at uh Roof Gardens. Beautiful night here. Beautiful night. And then we
00:48:41
watched Team England. Oh my god. Was that fun? >> New York or >> 42? I was in London.
00:48:46
>> London. Okay. >> Um we were saying and granted these are Do you realize how expensive like Europe is going to be
00:48:54
this summer with all these newly minted douchebags headed to Europe this summer?
00:48:58
>> Mhm. M I mean I can't wait to see I'll just hear about it. What a table in AA
00:49:06
costs. >> AA >> for a big event. When you have a bunch of 34y old and let's be honest, almost
00:49:12
all dudes. When you have a bunch of 34 year old dudes who woke up and are like worth 11 million, the first thing
00:49:18
they're going to do is head to Sanrope this summer. >> Sanrope. >> And I I said I said
00:49:24
>> is it sank? >> Son 55. Yeah. I mean, do you realize how expensive >> a radish cost $50?
00:49:31
>> I mean, we talk about San Francisco real estate. Just wait till you see what the
00:49:34
price of a bottle of bottle service is. >> Yeah. >> Uh, you know, >> Well, that's why you're paying when
00:49:39
we're there next week, Scott. That's why. >> Baby, I always pay for you. I always pay
00:49:43
for the wine. >> I know you do. >> I think all men should always pay for the women. I'm
00:49:46
>> at the same time. I really don't like when things cost ridiculous amounts of money. It makes me uncomfortable.
00:49:51
>> Unless it's at the hotel dap with the dog, >> then it's worth it. Then it's worth
00:49:55
every penny. Let me try to stop that. bottle of rosé for my friend who doesn't drink
00:50:00
>> the children and he was like, "Wait a minute. Make >> No, you're not invited. I forgot about
00:50:03
that." >> Oh, yes. Exactly. That's what I thought. You were very sweet with them in the
00:50:06
pool last night. >> Kids are less Your kids are less awful than most kids. >> My kids are They're great.
00:50:11
>> I do think Wait, I just got to reveal that one moment, though. >> I'm at the hotel pool with you, Amanda,
00:50:17
and your two kids, >> and I'm going down to the pool with Amanda and the kids. I'm like, "You want
00:50:22
to come down with us?" And you're like, "No, and please just keep them down there as long as possible."
00:50:28
>> And you literally just played on a chair. >> I did. I need >> And you said to me, you gave me kind of
00:50:33
that dad to dad look. You go, >> "Do me a favor. Keep them down there as long as possible.
00:50:38
>> Keep Amanda and the kids down there as long as >> you like to swim. I don't like to swim.
00:50:42
I'm like a cat. I don't like to swim." So there you have it. So anyway, do you have your um your whatever your your
00:50:49
what is it? Zodiac. >> Oh, I hire the same guy. He somehow manages to to navigate that thing with a
00:50:55
lit cigarette at all times. >> I love you in the Zodiac. >> I pay him I pay him I think I I think I
00:51:01
pay him like €800 a day and he just circles the hotel and waits till I'm ready to go somewhere and zodiac this
00:51:07
[ __ ] James take no take salt. My son is already a 34year-old hedge fund zillionaire. He just acts that's how he
00:51:16
goes through life. >> He's ordering bottle service. >> Anyway, I'm very excited. By the way, we
00:51:20
we'll be in France and we'll be doing uh a live pivot which we're very excited about. Um and hanging out on the quaset.
00:51:26
>> We're doing a live pivot. >> We are doing >> I did not know that. >> Yes, we >> All right.
00:51:31
>> What do you mean you did not know that? >> I did not know that. >> What? >> I thought I had the week off.
00:51:36
>> Recorded live. We're going to record it live. Not broadcast live, but we are going to be together. Oh my god.
00:51:42
>> Nice. Where are we recording? >> Show up where MJ. We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about
00:51:47
business tech or whatever's on your mind. can go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for the show or
00:51:52
call 8551 pivot. Elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe this week on Professor. Scott
00:51:58
spoke with the legend Heather Cox Richardson about the future of American democracy, the state of both political
00:52:03
parties and what history suggests comes next. Scott, you did a great job, I have
00:52:07
to tell you. Let's listen to a clip. It does raise a larger question, I think, about where the United States is in this
00:52:14
moment, and that is obviously this is hitting consumers incredibly hard. They were already hurting from the tariffs.
00:52:20
Now they're going to be hurting even more from the rising cost of diesel and the cost of what that's going to do to
00:52:25
food and gasoline and so on. But to what degree is the uh corruption and the incompetence and the self-deing
00:52:37
among Trump and his inner circle affecting the way that ordinary Americans who are not paying a lot of
00:52:45
attention to that because they're working three jobs to put food on the table. You know, to what degree do those
00:52:52
things speak to each other? That is a very good point. I do think the algae the algae I think it's a it unites us
00:52:59
all. Anyway, uh that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. We'll be back next week and congratulations to New
00:53:04
York Knicks, especially uh the Brunson family. There was some pictures of him with his daughter.
00:53:08
>> Lovely. They all really exhibit masculinity and and community in the way that is
00:53:14
wonderful. So, congratulations. I hope everyone's having a good time right now at the ticker tape parade and we'll
00:53:21
we'll be next week in France, Scott and I. So, we'll we'll I hope you'll enjoy our shows from there.