00:00:00
Any adult with a public Instagram account was automatically opted in. Cara Swisser has opted out now. Just so you
00:00:05
know. These people, are they just constant information thieves? Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York
00:00:16
Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Carara Swisser. Scott is off again. Who knows where he is? He's
00:00:23
floating around on some yacht in some Italian area, I think. Uh, and but I have brought in someone who is much
00:00:28
smarter than him. Matt Bellan, journalist, founding partner of Puck and host of the Town Podcast. Welcome, Matt.
00:00:36
>> Thanks for having me. I don't know about that comparison to Scott, but I'll take
00:00:38
it. >> No, he's really smart. But in the topics that we're going to be talking about,
00:00:42
and there's so many of them, you are you just do an amazing job and an amazing reporter on Hollywood and and and
00:00:48
broader. You talk about AI and manner all manner of things. And I just want to put a also a shout out to Eric Gardner
00:00:54
who writes with you sometimes on the legal stuff. Riveting. >> He's great. Yeah. Once a week at Buck.
00:01:00
He's great. >> I got to tell you important actually. It's stuff I didn't know about and I you
00:01:04
know you understand how especially around copyright and things like that. Anyway, it's really good. I've been
00:01:09
having a one of the things reason I want to have you on because um you you really
00:01:14
have written some of the smartest stuff around a lot of these mergers we and more to come and so I want to sort of
00:01:19
get a preview of where you think are going but I want to you recently I want to bring something up. You recently said
00:01:25
can Lions is a quote tacky business conference. How'd that go over? >> Uh okay >> tacky tacky I would the wine is lovely
00:01:34
but it's >> well I did say enjoy the rosé. So listen, I did an intro my newsletter a
00:01:38
couple weeks ago during Can Lion, which I called it a soulless corporate boondoggle and that I would not be
00:01:44
attending that year. Uh it seemed to have triggered everybody who was there because I kept hearing from people that
00:01:50
it was coming up at different panels. Ben Smith asked um Alex Cooper about it on his panel. And listen, I I think it
00:01:58
was a little misunderstood. I don't mind a boondoggle. Like I love a good boondoggle. The problem with Can Lion is
00:02:05
that they call it a festival of creativity. >> You're right. Correct. Yes. >> And it is not it is it is about
00:02:13
platforms for selling advertising. >> That's correct. That is correct. Yeah. >> I you know through my career covering
00:02:19
entertainment I go to the can film festival which happens a month earlier. That to me is can because yes it's a
00:02:26
market but it's ultimately about the art and displaying the art and you know even
00:02:32
like my joke is that can lion makes the TV upfronts look like the Oscars >> because at least at the upfronts they're
00:02:40
talking about the the the product the shows the movies it's all about the talent it's all that is not can line
00:02:47
it's >> swinging ads is how I look at it the >> it's about ads and it's about AI
00:02:52
empowered engagement technology and just all of that that stuff, which is fine. Acknowledge it, but don't like these ad
00:03:00
executives get up there on on their podiums and talk about storytelling and the creativity.
00:03:06
>> Storytelling is back in case you're interested. >> It's all about story. Rita Pharaoh at
00:03:11
Disney, the ads the ads uh chief was all about, you know, we empower storytellers
00:03:15
and I'm just like, stop. You're selling >> pay for storytellers with the ads. >> Yeah. Whatever. It's just the whole
00:03:22
thing. The whole thing to me is gross. And you know, it doesn't mean it won't go in the future. I like a good glass of
00:03:27
rosé. >> Well, I have to say when you It's good for it. Everyone's like, "Why do you
00:03:32
keep going?" I'm like, "It's really good for my business. I get a lot of ads there." Like I get a lot of business,
00:03:38
you know, you're sort of like you're sort of prancing for the for the for the advertisers essentially. And
00:03:42
>> yeah, which is the upfronts are ultimately about that as well, but they're also about the creativity of the
00:03:50
people who make the content. And I don't think, you know, when when Alex Cooper goes there, she's not talking about, you
00:03:56
know, the nuances of what what goes into her show. She's talking about who she reaches,
00:04:02
>> how it's a big audience, and why you should buy ads with her. >> That's correct. Yes, she's prancing.
00:04:07
Prancing, you know, >> and I think what it what it tapped into is this. You know, there is a changing
00:04:13
of the guard going on right now. The creator economy is gigantic. Obviously, I know that the Can Film Festival has
00:04:20
probably seen better days in terms of relevance to the larger culture, but it's still ultimately about the art and
00:04:28
that's what I was saying. >> Yeah, that's true. Yeah. Yeah. We're slinging ants. That's what we're doing.
00:04:32
That's why I'm there. Also, the Rosa is excellent and also my kids. I took my kids and we have a good time.
00:04:37
>> I'm sure. You know what? I love a good yacht party. >> Yeah. I I don't go I don't can't go to
00:04:41
those anymore. I got invited to one. Piers Morgan had one and I was like there is nothing I would like to not do
00:04:47
more than be on a a a yacht a yacht that doesn't doesn't go anywhere. They keep it there. It doesn't like move. It's
00:04:55
>> those are the worst. The ones that are just parked in the in like the harbor there. It's like well
00:05:00
>> what's the difference between this yacht party and going to a podium or like a
00:05:04
little like uh you know beach setup? There's no difference. It's just you're floating.
00:05:09
>> Yep. Absolutely. Anyway, we've got a lot to talk to today. Um uh but first I want
00:05:13
to begin with I think a pretty big story. Lawyers for several states are finalizing an antitrust lawsuit
00:05:18
challenging Paramounts acquisition of Warner Brothers. It is going to be filed. I know a lot about this. They
00:05:23
have been in touch. >> It's politically untenable to not file. >> Correct. That's correct. The suit could
00:05:28
let me just put it out. Sue could interfere with Paramount's plan to complete the deal in the coming weeks.
00:05:32
The DOJ cleared the acquisition rather quickly last month. Talk about uh this the lawsuit. Obviously, it's Rob Bont
00:05:40
from California, but there are other states. There's several states involved. Um, and and of course there's the the
00:05:46
ongoing British uh the the person who's head of essentially competition in Britain is saying she's she's sort of
00:05:53
adjacent curious of slowing this thing down at the very least. Uh which was unusual for her to say. Several British
00:05:59
people are like, uh, that's not great for them. Uh, it could be a leverage thing. Talk about the the entire thing
00:06:05
and where you see it going. It's an interesting one because first of all, the antirust case here is not as strong
00:06:13
as some other ones recently that liation etc. like this one you know Paramount and Warers are not leaders in the
00:06:23
industry and they're battling these big tech players like Netflix, Amazon, Apple. So, it's it's you know, when they
00:06:32
say this merger is pro competition, it's sort of their buzzword they always say in their press releases. Like, they're
00:06:37
not totally wrong. If this works and they can create a legitimate competitor to a Netflix, to an Amazon, like that
00:06:46
that is pro competition. Now, obviously, the wreckage within Hollywood to do this
00:06:52
is going to be thousands of jobs lost and a legacy studio vanishing. And that's what's got gotten everybody up in
00:07:00
arms. The the the state action I it's going to be tough, but they need to clear a injunction to actually stop
00:07:11
this. They need to go to a court and a court needs to say, "Okay, not only do you have a likelihood of winning here,
00:07:17
I'm going to enjoin this merger from closing." That's the real leverage. If they can get that, then they're going to
00:07:27
be in a best position to extract significant concessions because I think that's what this is happening behind the
00:07:32
scenes. Obviously, Megan Del Raheem, who is their general counsel, is in the middle of this. He's been in the middle
00:07:37
of the British thing. They're fighting it on two fronts. And I think the British group essentially just wants
00:07:42
stuff like promises around the >> States want stuff, too. >> Yes, they do want stuff. So, explain
00:07:48
what first start with the British there. Just for people to know, there's a big Harry Potter studio out there. There may
00:07:53
be some people visiting it, the tourism stuff. They want job, some children's programming stuff. Explain what they
00:07:59
want in Britain versus the US. >> Yeah. So, first of all, there's there's varying reports as to what they actually
00:08:06
want because they haven't actually said the the children's programming thing doesn't seem to be that big of a
00:08:11
problem. Paramount has a joint venture in the UK to distribute movies and it's with Comcast with NBC Universal for the
00:08:21
Universal movies and there's a scenario where they exit that. Now they may actually want to do that on their own
00:08:29
because the Ellison's may want to just not have a partner there but that's one area where they are they are together
00:08:36
with a competitor that they may have to divest there. There's also some television interest there that they
00:08:42
have. The the the real goal is to get them to concede to certain things and if it's a divestment of
00:08:51
certain television interests, if it's a an exit from this joint venture, that's something where they can claim victory
00:08:58
and then they can move on. >> Job retention. >> Uh well, I don't know actually that has
00:09:04
been the the something that the European regulators have gone gone after in the past. Mhm.
00:09:09
>> So that could be now I think that is something that is going to be much more relevant for the state cases. Rob Bont
00:09:15
in California, he's interested in preserving jobs and getting a commitment from the Ellison's to continue to
00:09:22
operate Warner Brothers and Paramount separately. You know, David Ellison has committed to
00:09:28
releasing 30 movies per year from the two studios in theaters, 15 a year, which is a pretty robust slate,
00:09:36
>> right? Committed. He has no he doesn't have to. >> No, that's that's my point is that maybe
00:09:41
they get that in writing, >> right? >> Maybe Okay. >> There is some kind of commitment to do
00:09:45
that for 10 years in writing. Maybe there's a commitment to uh avoid, you know, the sweeping job losses at the
00:09:53
different studios. So, they're they're looking here. They're the strategy is to try to use the lawsuit and the threat of
00:10:03
a delay here because remember $650 million per quarter Paramount has to pay to warn a discovery in a ticking fee
00:10:12
after October 1st. So if this drags on, it gets more and more expensive for them
00:10:18
and they're trying to use that leverage to get stuff. Um, I believe that ultimately a cons a consolidation or a
00:10:27
concession here might be that they would try to get them to sell CNN because obviously this is a political concern.
00:10:33
That is not an antirust concern and Bont has kind of punted on that. But I know that in the attorney general's circle
00:10:44
that is something they have discussed as a group. >> They have I would agree with you. I
00:10:49
would agree that >> the problem is that's not really an antirust remedy, >> right? How can you make someone do that?
00:10:54
I mean, a part of me is like, good idea. The second is like, can you really make
00:10:57
someone do sell you don't want to sell, right? >> And the CNN business, while still
00:11:01
robust, hundreds of millions of dollars a year in profits, that's not the basis of this merger.
00:11:07
>> No, the linear networks are not. >> No, but it's a sticking point. It's a stick. It's a
00:11:12
>> It's political. And this has become a political issue. Now, the Ellison's made
00:11:15
it political by jumping into bed with the Trump administration so much, but now you have Elizabeth Warren, you have
00:11:22
Lena Khan, you have all the antitrust people that are putting pressure on other Democrats like Rob Bont who wants
00:11:28
to have a future in Democratic politics. And he needs to do something here and get some kind of concession or trophy
00:11:38
that he can go back to the Democrats and say, "We let this merger go through, but
00:11:42
we got XYZ." So what what do you think he can get that? Do you think the Ellison's would would discourage that
00:11:50
for example? What else could he get? What else what would be as important? >> I know there is a document that resides
00:11:58
at Paramount that has all the things that they are willing to concede and it's just a question of how far down
00:12:06
the menu they will go and what they actually ask for. I don't know if they're going to agree to preserve jobs
00:12:16
specifically. I mean, if you look at this company, they have$80 billion in debt. They're
00:12:20
>> There's no other way. No other way. No other way. Yeah. The entire transaction
00:12:25
is premised on significant synergies. So, if you all of a sudden agree not to fire people and then you do this deal
00:12:34
and you're stuck with all this cost and you're trying to appease your lenders and your Middle East backers, like that
00:12:42
puts you in a really tough spot. >> It does. And many people off the record who, you know, sort of performerly say,
00:12:48
"Yeah, great idea of a new strong studio like the money." Like, good luck. Like every smart person I know is like I
00:12:56
recall having a meeting with David Zazoff when I said they're not going to be able to do anything because the costs
00:13:01
are too high and they have to cut too much and their debt is too high. I just said I was just a math person so doesn't
00:13:06
look like they can grow easily. And he called me and said we we should have drinks and talk about this and I was
00:13:12
like I'm sorry I'm a math person. It just doesn't work and you have to cut. There's no growth for you anywhere. Um,
00:13:19
and >> well, they premised that merger on a revenue number that never materialized.
00:13:24
>> Correct. And >> they put it out there that the TV group would generate a significant amount of
00:13:30
profit every year. Um, and it just kept going down and down and down to the point where almost immediately they had
00:13:35
to revise their aspirations and the whole thing fell apart. >> That's right. And I was like, I'm sorry.
00:13:40
I don't know. Are you a magician? Are you going to start selling drugs? Like I was like, what? Explain to me where the
00:13:45
money is coming. And this here it's quantumly. except that they're rich. And even if you're rich,
00:13:50
>> wild card here, >> e even if you're rich, you're I wouldn't say's cheap, but Larry Ellison is cheap,
00:13:58
right? Like ultimately, do you want to throw this money at your son, right? Essentially, do you want to give him
00:14:05
someone who has a questionable like record of moneymaking, right? Not an enormous money like Sky Dance was not a
00:14:11
big money maker. Um, and so that's the question is how rich are you and how much to me speaking of yachts it's like
00:14:20
a big leaky yacht. I was like how much you want to put on the yacht? Like how much do you want to
00:14:24
>> We have precedent here. Remember Larry Ellison funded Anna Pererna which was Megan Ellison's film production company
00:14:32
David's sister that was very prolific for a decade and made a ton of Oscar winning movies and her by Spike Jones
00:14:40
that was a Megan Ellison production and then at some point Larry said enough is enough you've lost so much money I can't
00:14:48
continue to bankroll this and the place dramatically downsized. >> Right. Right. And so the question is, is
00:14:55
he that was 10 that was Larry Ellison many years ago. Is he willing to do this for his son to me? Larry Ellison is the
00:15:02
is the fulcrum here for everything. It's like I'm not spending I I don't want to
00:15:06
pay for this muffler. I don't want and like the question is does he really I don't think he gives a rat's ass about
00:15:12
CNN in any way. >> Oh, see I've heard differently. I've heard that that was the case in in in
00:15:17
the beginning, >> but that he has come around to the influence of it and cares very much
00:15:24
about Israel, for instance, and >> wants to kind of put the media on the right track and he's been spending time
00:15:30
with President Trump. And I think that both he and David now are more interested, not as a business. They know
00:15:39
that news is not a great business, but a lot of this merger is premised on the combination of CBS News and CNN and all
00:15:48
the people they can fire at those news networks to combine their news gathering operations. And that I think is a reason
00:15:55
why they may not offer to sell CNN as part of this even though it might be politically a winner.
00:16:02
>> So, oh, so to finish, what happens then? What is what can Bont get if he can't
00:16:07
get that? Well, we know that >> any chance of getting that. You say no because Larry likes it.
00:16:12
>> Yeah. I don't think he's going to be able to get it. I think they want it, but I don't think he's going to be able
00:16:15
to get it. And and it becomes complicated because of, you know, it's not a real It opens a lot of doors that
00:16:22
I'm not sure the Democrats even want to open um because something overtly political as a concession for a merger.
00:16:29
But I do think they can get uh the the movie thing, some kind of commitment in writing. I think that you to release 30
00:16:37
movies a year. I think they can get a commitment to buy a certain amount of content or make a certain amount of
00:16:44
content in California, which as you know is a big deal these days with all the runaway productions and that will be
00:16:51
something that Bont could get. Um, you know, I don't know what the specifics of what the other states might want. You
00:16:58
know, you know, New Jersey is one of the states considering and they have a big production hub there. maybe they can get
00:17:03
some commitments to film there. Uh so I think it's going to be much more about investment than it is about preventing
00:17:11
the loss of jobs. Although maybe they could get some commitment for you know only reducing 10 15% of the workforce
00:17:19
per year for five years something like that. >> Yeah. Something. So that's where you
00:17:22
think it's going. I do I think that that not these states don't have the appetite
00:17:27
for a three two threeyear antirust war and Paramount certainly doesn't have the appetite for that. So there will be some
00:17:35
kind of settlement but again the leverage point comes not from filing the lawsuit but from getting an injunction
00:17:42
that would prevent this deal from closing. >> And if they get an injunction they might
00:17:45
be able to get the other stuff too. >> Exactly. >> Because that would be an enormous win
00:17:48
for Bont. That would send him right to Governor Bill. >> I don't know about that. He's not even
00:17:53
running this time, but maybe in the future. But yeah, you met him. He's running for governor. Just FYI,
00:17:58
>> right? But not this time, but you know, or eight years if if if Biser wins. >> Yes, that's right. Yeah. Yeah. We'll
00:18:05
see. But in any case, he's a he's a he's an upand cominging politician and he's kind of in a good
00:18:10
>> Listen, if we get president, maybe he could be attorney general. >> Yeah, that's right. Well, I don't think
00:18:15
so. Anyway, um let's move on. Disney has told the FCC uh that ABC uh The View should continue to qualify as a
00:18:23
bonafideed news program, making exempt from federal equal time rules for political candidates. The filing comes
00:18:29
as the FCC has been probing whether The View violates those equal time rules. A notable line from the filing, the First
00:18:35
Amendment does not permit the government to sit in an editor's chair. Yet, that is the seat the commission now proposes
00:18:40
to take. ABC launched a campaign, a very aggressive campaign, to encourage reviewers to make their thoughts known
00:18:45
to the FCC in June. and the commission received over 76,000 comments about the case. I, as you know, I think Brendan
00:18:52
Gar is a [ __ ] and he's way way overstepped here for reasons unknown. Um, >> well, reasons unknown.
00:18:58
>> Well, he wants he has he wants a big political career and he's backing Donald
00:19:02
Trump to love him. >> Yes, exactly. It's it's pathetic in so many ways, but um I bet mom Trump
00:19:07
doesn't love him, by the way. Um, so talk about the con the consequences here for both sides because I think Brennan
00:19:14
Gar has overstepped especially in his statements because his statements go way over the line of any FCC chairman I've
00:19:21
heard in the many years I've covered them. >> Yeah, it's interesting here because the
00:19:26
this is all happening with the backdrop of Trump not necessarily being as powerful in the media sphere as he was
00:19:33
even a year ago. You know, we're heading into lame duck status. the polling is where it is and it's it's not, you know,
00:19:41
I think that Brennan Carr was a little bit surprised that Disney came back so aggressively.
00:19:46
>> Yes, he was. Yeah. >> And and and he's now on Twitter like trying to counter this this pretty
00:19:53
normal strategy. I mean, when there's ever a carriage fight amongst distributors and content providers or
00:20:00
>> Disney's always good at it. >> Yeah. They they go after their fans. >> The New York one. I loved watching the
00:20:05
New York one. That was a real fun. >> And shocker, people who watch The View are interested in The View having the
00:20:11
freedom to have on any guests that they want. And if Disney communicates to them
00:20:16
to stand up to the government to keep your show that you like as your show, they're going to respond. So I think
00:20:23
this was totally predictable. What's the most interesting angle to me is through
00:20:28
the lens of the new CEO of Disney, Josh Dear. >> Yes, exactly. >> He is being aggressive here and he's
00:20:34
pushing back on this one. He's pushing back on the dumb Kimmel thing, Jimmy Kimmel thing where they claim that, you
00:20:40
know, they're going after Disney because of their DEI policies, but we all know they were trying to put fear and censor
00:20:48
Jimmy Kimmel and Disney's really fighting back on that. And and I don't know that Bob Iger, the previous CEO,
00:20:55
would have been as aggressive on this. >> I think he wanted to be. I think he felt
00:20:59
like he was that the the way Jimmy Kimmel went down wasn't exactly what happened. Like I think he was he w he
00:21:07
had been supportive, but the way it went down because he didn't say anything. He
00:21:10
didn't call reporters. He didn't, you know, he didn't really handle that very well.
00:21:14
>> Well, I did an interview with the FT a couple weeks ago and he said that he didn't like Kimmel's comments about
00:21:21
Charlie Kirk and wanted him to apologize, which he had never said before. >> Yes. But I think he also felt that he
00:21:28
had supported Kimmel over the many years, you know what I mean? And that that his that, you know, I think he was
00:21:34
surprised by the pileon on him. Um, and I, you know, I just I said to him, well,
00:21:40
why were you surprised? Like people like Jimmy Kimmel, it seemed ridiculous what
00:21:43
Carr was doing. Like it doesn't I think he felt like he had a long career and should have people should have given him
00:21:49
a little more credit over the time. But talk about why Josh is doing this. So I think it's really interesting to be one
00:21:55
of your early moves. >> He's a different person and he has a different view on this and I think that
00:22:01
the people advising him are telling him that they are in the right here. I mean you mentioned Eric Gardner. He did a
00:22:06
whole analysis of this for Buck. Disney has the upper hand here, right? >> And I think Brendan Carr knows it.
00:22:12
They're just trying to be bullies >> and Disney is a really big popular corporation that people have an
00:22:19
emotional connection to. So, I think that he's playing his hand here and they know that they ultimately if this did
00:22:27
get litigated, they would come out on top. So, why not be more aggressive? >> Well, you know, it is interesting the
00:22:33
push back I find I I think it's the timing is correct because one of the things when I was arguing with them
00:22:38
during the Kimmel times, a lot of the Disney executives, I was like, he's going down. Trump is popularity is only
00:22:44
headed one direction at this point. I was like, you all can look like heroes at this moment by just stick, you know,
00:22:50
given the whole thing that happened with Stephanopoulos and everything else, which is I I suspect there was probably
00:22:56
more problems there to litigate that. In this case, it's a clean shot against an
00:23:00
oath like who's who's attached to a very increasingly unpopular president. I was
00:23:05
like, I don't know. And people love the view. Like they do the fans fans love it.
00:23:10
>> And here's the thing. When Iger came back to Disney in 2022, one of his big priorities was to
00:23:17
depoliticize the brand. The previous CEO, Bob Chapeek, had gotten into this big fight in Florida with Ronda Santis.
00:23:24
You had Republicans saying, you know, boycott Disney. And that's outside of Disney. I know that was
00:23:32
troubling to the executives. You know, they were marching in front of white supremacists. If you recall, people
00:23:37
don't remember this. >> Disney is an everybody brand. And Josh Dearo is a is a brand guy. So I I
00:23:45
understand why they wouldn't want to get into a fight with a Republican president. And if you noticed last week,
00:23:52
no other network went harder on the anniversary of America than Disney ABC. They literally did 24 hours of
00:23:59
programming. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> And they got 40 million viewers out of it. But my point is like they're trying
00:24:06
Disney is trying to wa walk both sides here publicly be be very kind of pro America and pro pro- every political
00:24:15
party but while also now standing up for itself which it did not do in the Stephanopoulos matter
00:24:21
>> right and it will succeed here I feel Ben car is a paper tiger >> oh I think they will absolutely succeed
00:24:28
I don't know they'll back down completely but this will eventually go away >> and then they will get the news the news
00:24:34
uh out. Correct. >> Yes. The news you mean the news exemption or the equal time exemption?
00:24:39
Yeah. I think Disney will win on that. >> Yeah. It's clearly an interview show. It's so It's kind of ridiculous on so
00:24:44
many levels. >> Yeah. The annoying thing is that they've kind of been chilling themselves during
00:24:49
this whole process and not having political guests on as much. >> Well, they had Vance on recently, you
00:24:55
know, the show they did. They had Vance on, but yeah, you're right. I think they
00:24:58
definitely have, but you know, they do better with like, you know, the guy from um just, you know, the handsome guy, you
00:25:05
know, that's what they do better with honestly. >> I'm gonna take your word on the
00:25:08
programming of the view. I'm not a regular viewer. >> Oh, it's I I was just a guest host on it
00:25:13
for two days and I hit a ball. It's so much fun and such a great audience. And one of the things that I you know,
00:25:18
there's a lot of declines in watching, but it's a really well done show. It's really it exactly meets its audience and
00:25:26
it's clever and interesting and oddly you know in a lot of these when you're on cable shows as you know they're
00:25:32
they're lacking of substance it feels substantive actually it's actually a good talk and so I think that's why it
00:25:38
works >> Barbara Walters genius was on to something >> genius my legend if I had to pick anyone
00:25:44
who was one of the finest interviews in the land it would be Barbara Walters but
00:25:47
also >> she does not get enough credit for conceiving that show >> yeah I agree she I agree and also by the
00:25:52
way Whoopy Goldberg runs that thing like a she's a she's really good at her job.
00:25:56
That's all. >> She really is and really creates a really interesting environment that is
00:26:01
unexpected. Anyway, I like being on it. I enjoy it and I hope for the best for them because they really uh they really
00:26:06
produce a great show and good for Josh Dear for this being one of his first things because he's going to win anyway.
00:26:11
Okay, Matt, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, Netflix sophomore Slump. Support for this show comes from
00:26:17
BetterHel. Thankfully, talking about mental health has become much more common, but that doesn't mean seeking
00:26:23
help is easy. Better Help's 2026 State of Stigma report surveyed 2,000 Americans and revealed that 85% of
00:26:30
Americans pled believe getting support is wise. Yet, 74% say society discourages people from doing so. With
00:26:37
BetterHel, you can connect with a licensed therapist from anywhere on your schedule. With more than 30,000
00:26:42
therapists, BetterHelp is the world's largest online therapy platform, having served over six million people
00:26:48
worldwide. And it works, earning an average live session rating of 4.9 out of five based on more than 1.7 million
00:26:55
client reviews. BetterHelp does the initial matching work for you so you can focus on your therapy goals. A short
00:27:01
questionnaire helps identify your needs and preferences, and their 12 plus years
00:27:05
of experience in industryleading match fulfillment rate means they typically get it right the first time. If you
00:27:10
aren't happy with your match, switch to a different therapist at any time from their tailored rex. You don't have to
00:27:15
let stigma stand in the way of support. You can start therapy with BetterHelp. You can sign up and get 10% off at
00:27:22
betterhelp.com/pivot. That's betterhp.com/pivot. Matt, we're back. Netflix is getting
00:27:29
into the short form content business. The the company announced this week it's partnered with BuzzFeed, cond people,
00:27:36
and various Penske media brands to bring the digital videos to the platform. These videos will range from
00:27:40
three-minute shorts to 20-minute episodes focusing on travel, cooking, fashion, as well as celebrity content
00:27:46
profiles and viral content. All these people have been making these extra what I call shoulder content that you see.
00:27:51
>> Oh, I used to do it when I ran Holly Deorter. We had to do the video version.
00:27:56
>> The video version Nas does actually a pretty good job. They all do a pretty good job at it. This announcement comes
00:28:01
in the wake of a new report that Netflix is struggling to retain fans between the
00:28:05
first and second seasons of top shows with some shows shedding 50% of their audience. Engagement is slowing too. The
00:28:11
amount of time customers spent watching Netflix last year grew by less than 2%. Um, talk about why they're doing this.
00:28:17
And just for people, I last yesterday went on Brian Williams new show which is they're also they've also bought a bunch
00:28:23
of podcasters. I think the one that's doing really well is The Breakfast Club. >> That's the one they're talking about.
00:28:27
But we'll know next week when their engagement report comes out for the first half of the year.
00:28:32
>> Yeah. But I don't think they're high. I don't I feel like >> I have heard internally the numbers are
00:28:36
not high, but it's early days and that's what they're saying. They're encouraged
00:28:40
by this the trends. >> Yeah. But the Breakfast Club from what I understand is a real standout. That's
00:28:44
what I heard from them. So um uh talk about this whole thing and include what it's not really podcasting. They're t it
00:28:50
was a TV show that I it was an interview. It was like you know Charlie Rose with 100% less creepy. It was just
00:28:56
I don't know. You know what I And it was like that's what that's what the set looked like.
00:28:59
>> They're calling them video podcasts. I mean, there's a a distinction there. I
00:29:02
think the guilds would love for them to call them talk shows cuz they have to pay more for them. But
00:29:07
>> fine, it was a talk show. >> This is all just about Netflix having YouTube envy. They they look at the
00:29:15
engagement report every month from Neielson. They are getting their butts kicked by YouTube. they know why, you
00:29:22
know, so much of the viewing on YouTube is this lower quality, um, you know, usergenerated.
00:29:30
It's just it's it's it's it's a different product than Netflix. It's free. Netflix is not free. and they're
00:29:38
saying, "How can we boost our engagement numbers without going fullon user generated and becoming YouTube,
00:29:47
>> but having enough on the platform where people start to consider it you the everyday you just go there to watch
00:29:54
video?" >> Yeah. Yeah. I think it's tough. >> It's sad to me. >> I agree >> that Netflix has such a great thing
00:30:00
going. They're just so it's so in their head that they've got to match YouTube because they see this trajectory.
00:30:06
>> Should be never YouTube will eat everything >> and then ultimately they'll wake up in 5
00:30:10
years and they will have to put shows on YouTube because it's so big and so dominant,
00:30:15
>> right? That is probably true >> because ads I mean everybody's been talking about the Netflix stock being
00:30:20
down 40% from last year and part of that is because they went after Warner Brothers and all the investors are like
00:30:26
whoa wait a second you guys thought you needed a big studio to compete here I thought you were the darling of media
00:30:31
but what it really is I think now is investors are looking for the growth narrative from Netflix. How are they
00:30:39
going to continue to grow and internally they see the ads platform as being a growth engine?
00:30:46
>> It is it's been rather long. >> It is because it's not huge. I mean Netflix I mean Amazon turned on ads for
00:30:52
all Prime Video viewers and it instantly became a gigantic ads business. Netflix
00:30:57
did not do that. It's an optin. You get to pay less money to get ads. >> It's it's it's actually more attractive
00:31:03
across the globe from what I understand. >> Yeah. people like free or less money and
00:31:07
they're willing to tolerate ads, >> but they need the inventory. They need people on it because they're coming from
00:31:13
this position of so many of their subscribers are non ads customers that even though they're growing the ads tier
00:31:21
and they're adding a bunch, you know, the percentage of new customers that sign up, most of them do so with for the
00:31:27
ad tier, they want inventory. And the best way to do it is this lower quality, lower cost, uh, you know, in in a a
00:31:35
sports term, a baseball, you know, a middle reliever, someone that just eats up innings.
00:31:41
And that's what these podcasts are. They're looking, you know, Netflix is also the evening streamer. People watch
00:31:46
at night and YouTube is the daytime streamer. People watch at work or at home while they're doing laundry or
00:31:53
whatever. And they want to compete for those daytime eyeballs. Which of those businesses, what do you think of these
00:31:59
three? I don't I think the three minute shorts are fine. I just don't get it. I don't know why. One of the things, you
00:32:05
know, also what they picked. It's not very contro, except for maybe Charlemagne. It's not very
00:32:11
controversial, right? It's very um you know, good, but not like wow. It's like they just signed a cooking show, you
00:32:18
know, yesterday. And it's not uh it's nothing that's in the top tiers of podcasters,
00:32:25
which is really interesting. Well, Bill Simmons is there. Bill's Bill's a big sports podcaster.
00:32:30
>> Yeah. >> And you know, they have a bunch of Ringer shows like and I my show, disclosure, my show is a Ringer show,
00:32:35
but they have like the Rewatchables, which is a big show, and they have some bar stool shows and stuff. They're doing
00:32:41
more and I've heard internally they want to do a lot more. And, you know, they're
00:32:46
testing it out. This is how Netflix works. >> They go into an area of content and if
00:32:51
it works, they do a ton more. They started doing crime documentaries. they worked and now they do a fire hose of
00:32:58
crime documentaries. They started doing these choose your own adventure shows where you could the audience would
00:33:04
choose and it didn't work so they stopped doing it and that this is how they operate. Um you know it's just to
00:33:11
me I wish Netflix would be Netflix and not try to be YouTube but I understand why they're doing that.
00:33:17
>> Why would if you are a podcaster or anybody else did to do that? Why do that if you if you have a good money just the
00:33:24
money they give you? Yeah, listen, some people like the prestige of being on Netflix.
00:33:29
>> It's it's a it's definitely a cooler brand than YouTube where anybody could be on it.
00:33:35
>> Um, and you know, if Netflix is successful here, they will change consumer behavior. Very difficult to do
00:33:41
that. But their their theory here is if we put enough on here and if we have some breakout shows, if you're a
00:33:48
Charlemagne fan or whatever, you're going to go on and then all of a sudden on your next jog, you don't go to
00:33:54
YouTube for the podcast you normally listen to. You go to Netflix and that's how you change consumer behavior.
00:34:01
>> Yeah. Right. Yeah. By the way, just for people to know, the Netflix has made a
00:34:05
deal for video episodes of Vox Media podcast, Unexplainable, and Switched on Pop, uh, which is is they have a very
00:34:12
it's a it's a pretty good ad business, but they'll do better on Netflix, I think. So, people are deciding where.
00:34:17
>> Do you think they'll do better on Netflix for viewership than on YouTube? >> I think they'll do better on money.
00:34:23
>> On money. Yeah, because that's what you're sacrificing right now. Yes. >> You're sacrificing reach on YouTube for
00:34:28
money from Netflix. And then the promise of maybe down the line the engagement numbers catch up.
00:34:33
>> Correct. That's right. You know, something like a pivot like we wouldn't because we're doing so well on YouTube
00:34:39
and other places. But it's just it's an interesting ju just position. A lot of these companies will sort of test out
00:34:44
certain of their products on it. Um >> I don't think that the engagement on these videos is going to be very high. I
00:34:51
agree. >> Especially at the beginning. >> I agree. I agree. >> Most of them are lowquality shoulder
00:34:55
like the Penske videos. Most of them are auto plays that play while you're reading an article.
00:35:01
>> Yeah, but they're sitting over on YouTube doing nothing, so it's fine. Exactly. Fine. So, um the the last thing
00:35:08
with Netflix, you know, every all the investors worried about their deal making. What is their will their next
00:35:12
deal be NBC Universal? What is what is a little bit about there? I think I I think that they are likely to at least
00:35:21
explore this >> because what we learned from the Warner Chase is that they feel they they don't
00:35:29
need but they would very much benefit from strong intellectual property. It's so difficult to create awareness to
00:35:39
create um you know fandoms on your own even though you're as large as Netflix and they've done it successfully many
00:35:46
times. Don't get me wrong, but having Jurassic per Jurassic Park, >> having the Minions,
00:35:53
>> the Odyssey, >> having Well, that's a that's different because that's a filmmaker relationship.
00:35:59
But you know what? Chris Nolan won't make movies for Netflix, >> right? >> There is a class of filmmaker that will
00:36:05
not make movies for Netflix because they do not give their product a theatrical release meaningfully. So they would get
00:36:12
into that business and if it's like what they said with Warers, they would keep the theatrical business running at least
00:36:18
at first on its own. So I think that they will at least look I don't know if they'll make a formal bid. There's a
00:36:24
complicating factor because NBC is involved and they definitely do not want to own linear networks. The other aspect
00:36:30
of Netflix that that is important here is sports. NBC Universal has the second best collection of sports rights second
00:36:39
to ESPN. do. >> They've got Sunday Night Football, which is the highest rated show on television.
00:36:45
They've got Major League Baseball. They've got golf. They've got um NB a huge new NBA deal that they just did.
00:36:53
And they have a subscale streamer in the US, Peacock, which only has 47 million subscribers. And they've got all of
00:37:01
these sports, right? So, Netflix, they've got to take a look at this. >> Yeah. So, what else would they take a
00:37:06
look at? There's smaller ones like Lionsgate and others, right? >> I and they've had the opportunity to go
00:37:10
after those in the past and have have not. Um, it's got to be special. I I I honestly I don't know.
00:37:17
>> I don't know. >> Who's another buyer for this? Is it going to get bought at all? Is who's
00:37:20
another buyer for >> Well, that gets to the larger question as to whether NBC Universal is a buyer
00:37:26
or a seller here. >> Seller, right? Yeah. >> They maintain that they can 100% go it
00:37:30
alone and they can be a buyer and they can look at things. The speculation is about perhaps a video game company like
00:37:36
Take Two. They they did look at Electronic Arts a number of years ago, but uh I I think they're either going to
00:37:46
do something now or they're going to wait for a while. There's tax implications of doing this spin-off. So,
00:37:53
if it actually happens, I'm skeptical that it will get to the actual spin-off. I think Netflix, if they're going to
00:37:58
come in, >> this is a Warner situation, right? This is what >> if if if Netflix is going to come in,
00:38:03
they're going to do it soon, >> right? soon and they would make a deal for it. Would they get it? Is there
00:38:09
another buyer? >> I mean, who knows? >> Paramount. >> No. Are you kid? I I I joked about that
00:38:15
on the town. I I don't think they have the appetite for that right now. And I think Larry is all tapped out.
00:38:19
>> No, they can't. They can't afford it. They can't >> uh you know, only there's only so many
00:38:23
Saudi and uh, you know, Middle East moneymen that you can go to. >> Yeah. Yeah. But there's a there's a
00:38:30
bunch of private equity money out there. Yeah. You know, there's a there's Apple
00:38:35
sitting there. Apple, everybody's been speculating in Hollywood for years that Apple would buy a studio. Bob Iger keeps
00:38:41
talking about how he wanted to merge Disney with Apple back in the day. Uh, you know, Apple has shown no
00:38:47
inclination. I talked to Eddie Q about this. He said, "No way." But you know what? You never know. New there's new
00:38:53
leadership at Apple. Maybe he'll say, "What are we doing in content? We have all these great shows, but we have very
00:38:59
little engagement." And engagement comes from library. Having a hundred years of
00:39:06
movies and television shows to keep your audience on the platform >> 100%. And Disney.
00:39:13
>> I don't think so. Do you think that Do you think Do you think NBC Universal is
00:39:17
going to be the first thing Josh Jamaro does? >> I I think it's going to be in the AI or
00:39:22
gaming or something like that. It's not going to be a traditional merger and and
00:39:28
they would have to sell one of the broadcast networks or get the rules changed. >> Yeah. Or or sell them both. Sell them
00:39:35
both off or have them >> I don't think they'd sell them both. I mean, they they've had that opportunity.
00:39:38
They've double triple down on keeping that stuff. They are, >> you know, integrating it all. And
00:39:45
>> the broadcast TV business is still a business. Cable is not, >> but >> broadcast still is.
00:39:51
>> Yep. It absolutely is. Anyway, um really interesting. Next up, we have a lot to
00:39:56
get to. Meta has released an AI image generator called Muse image, which the company's calling the creative partner
00:40:01
that knows your world. I can't I can't believe these people write these things. The generator comes uh with a feature
00:40:07
lets users create AI images based on people's Instagram photos and any adult with a public Instagram account was
00:40:12
automatically opted in. Cara Swisser is opted out now, just so you know. >> You know, I saw your post on threads and
00:40:18
I tried to do that last night and I couldn't find the button to do that. >> I will show you. I will send you a step
00:40:24
by step. Uh the company also previewed an AI video generator which will be coming available in the next month. Uh
00:40:31
what is these people? Are they just constant information thieves? They just continually
00:40:36
>> do this. >> Listen, it's a uh ask forgiveness not permission strategy. It's been the case
00:40:42
from the very beginning in Silicon Valley and it takes the Hollywood people to step up. The talent agency CIA put
00:40:50
out a pretty good statement last night. No one, they said no one's image, name, and likeness, voice, or creative work
00:40:56
should be used by a third party, including AI models without clear documented consent. They're telling them
00:41:02
essentially what the industry said about Sora when Open AI launched it. It's like, don't make this opt out, make it
00:41:09
opt in, >> right? Exactly. They hate optin. >> I know. Because nobody does. >> They hated optin since AOL. They hate
00:41:16
optin. They hate it. >> I get it. Listen, it's a much it's a much less convenient business. You have
00:41:21
to ask permission. >> That's correct. >> That's kind of how it works when you have rights like copyright and name
00:41:27
image likeness rights. >> They don't care. As Walt Mossberg famously said, they're rapacious
00:41:32
information thieves. Um and they continue with that quality. >> It's not just information though. This
00:41:38
is like, you know, a literally, unless he opts out, they could take a Tom Cruz photo that he posts of himself and suck
00:41:46
it into their model and create a video based on Tom Cruz. >> That's correct. That is It's like It's
00:41:51
nuts. And of course, Tom Cruz is good for the platform being on it and putting all this marketing stuff. It's a It's a
00:41:56
win-win situation for them and Tom Cruz. And instead, they kick him in the teeth.
00:41:59
>> But they know that they're so big now that Tom Cruz can't market his movies without them. That's the problem here.
00:42:05
It's the problem with all of these new innovations is that Meta looks at it, says, "Oh, we will just clone this and
00:42:13
use our massive distribution to put that person out of business or we buy them, >> right?" Yeah. Yeah. Buy or build. That's
00:42:20
how they That's how they think. Anyway, I don't think this I don't I don't think
00:42:24
this is a great move and I think they'll roll it back. That's my feeling. They I
00:42:28
think they know they're on thin ice here with people. >> We'll see how the studios react this
00:42:32
next week. You know, they haven't actually launched the video component yet. >> Right. Right. But I you can turn it off.
00:42:37
I recommend everyone turn it off until we know more. All right. And I'll tell you how to do it, Matt. Um. All right.
00:42:42
Let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the Sam Alman's movie Fate and a little bit about
00:42:46
Odyssey. The Odyssey. >> Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. To all the financial adviserss
00:42:52
listening, let's talk about bonds for a minute. Capturing value in fixed income is not easy. Bond markets are massive,
00:42:59
murky, and let's be real, lots of firms throw a couple of flashy funds your way.
00:43:02
and call it a day. But not Vanguard. Vanguard delivers institutional quality bonds. And institutional quality isn't
00:43:09
just a tagline. It's a commitment to helping your clients succeed. That means top tier products across the lineup,
00:43:14
including more than 80 bond funds actively managed by a global team of over 200 sector specialists, analysts,
00:43:20
and traders. Plenty of firms like to spotlight a star portfolio manager as if one brilliant investor is doing all the
00:43:26
heavy lifting. Vanguard takes a different approach. They believe the best active investing ideas shouldn't
00:43:31
stay with one person. They should be shared across the entire team. So, if you're looking to give your clients
00:43:36
consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio.
00:43:42
That's vanguard.com/audio. All investing is subject to risk. Vanguard Marketing Corporation
00:43:48
distributor. Matt, we're back with more headlines. The Sam Alman focused movie. The
00:43:53
Artificial has found a new home at an indie studio Neon after Amazon gave it the boot. Amazon walked away from the
00:43:59
project after striking a major partnership with OpenAI. The $40 million uh film stars Andrew Garfield as Sam
00:44:05
Alman and recounts the chaotic weekend in 2023 when he was fired and was reinstated as OpenAI's CEO. Neon plans
00:44:12
to release the film later this year and is expected to position as an awards contender. Uh you know very well
00:44:18
reggarded filmmaker made it. Um uh talk about talk about that. And then just secondly, a big movie is obviously
00:44:26
coming out or you mentioned Chris Nolan, his latest film, The Odyssey, which could be the biggest movie of the
00:44:31
summer, maybe the year. Tickets went on sale, crashing AMC's app. People are desperate to see this. Fandango says
00:44:36
first day sales were 10 times higher than Nolan's last film, Oenheimer. Early reactions have been raves despite a
00:44:42
backlash online. It's a fake backlash on downing these trailers and calling the casting of some of the actors. It's
00:44:49
ridiculous. It's a right-wing lunacy. One of the biggest critics, of course, is Elon Musk, who's been attacking the
00:44:54
movie, and director Nolan for months. Uh, I haven't seen the movie. I'm going to see it Monday, I think.
00:44:59
>> Yeah, I'm going Monday as well. >> It looks It looks astonishing, you know. Um, talk about I mean, I think they've
00:45:06
beat the backlash back. I don't think any >> That doesn't matter. That's just It
00:45:09
doesn't matter. So, talk about these two movies, the Sam Alman focus movie and the um and and this uh this other one. I
00:45:16
think it'll do just fine. And I think neon is a good place for it to go. >> Listen, th this one, I don't know if you
00:45:21
and Scott give a wuss of the year award, >> but Mike Hopkins at Amazon is an early
00:45:28
contender. >> All right. Well, you can have one. You have your own podcast. >> I know I do. Trust me, we've I've gone
00:45:32
on and on about this. >> What's the year? We stick with Brandon Car is a [ __ ] That's the people we
00:45:36
focus on, but you can go for Mike Hopkins, but go ahead. >> So, listen. Amazon developed this movie,
00:45:41
hired Luca Guanino, who did Call Me By Your Name and Challengers, uh, well- reggarded filmmaker to direct this
00:45:48
movie. They went through all the motions. The only thing that has changed from when they green lit this movie last
00:45:54
year until now is that they now have a $50 billion relationship with Open AI, >> right?
00:46:01
>> And it's so obvious that they're not even denying it. Well, no, but when you go around like I've I've, you know, when
00:46:08
you go around to these companies like we're not touching that, you know, if it's an Elon Musk property, they do this
00:46:12
all the time, right? >> They do. But this the difference here is that Amazon committed to this major
00:46:18
filmmaker and all of this talent. And Amazon wants to be both. They want to serve the masters in Seattle and be a
00:46:26
tech platform that is looking at the, you know, the future of AI and all the bets they're making there. But they also
00:46:31
want to be able to do real Hollywood movies like Project Hail Mary that requires relationships with talent. The
00:46:39
first call that Mike Hopkins had to make on this was to Brian Lord, the head of CIA, the most powerful talent agency
00:46:46
that has a lot of talent in this movie, and tell him this movie by your prominent filmmaker is getting dumped by
00:46:53
this studio. What do you think Brian Lord is going to do the next time they have a hot piece of material, not take
00:46:58
it to Mike Hopkins? >> Right. So, what happens here is I mean, I have read the script. I don't
00:47:03
particularly like the movie. I think there's a lot of nonsense in it like making certain people heroes who were I
00:47:08
think everybody's a mess in this situation. No one looks good. But to make Ilia a hero questionable make Jeff
00:47:16
Hinton a partyier. I was like what? Like you know there's a lot of stuff I didn't
00:47:20
like in the script when I read it and I got it years ago I think. But he's a great filmmaker. I bet it's interesting.
00:47:26
It's sort of like the social network. It's not really what happened but it's not unwhat happened.
00:47:31
>> It's very much like that. And the the difference here is that the >> the stakes are much higher
00:47:37
>> because we're talking about these guys who could potentially end the world. And
00:47:42
that's correct. >> From what I understand, I also read an early draft of the script. It the tone
00:47:45
of it is pretty dark and it makes you feel bad. One one potential buyer who saw and didn't buy the movie said it
00:47:51
it's the feel bad movie of the year. >> But it it sort of doesn't matter whether
00:47:56
this movie is good or bad. There is a social contract in Hollywood where if you commit to a filmmaker and you commit
00:48:03
to talent, you're in this together. And here it's Amazon, big tech company, finally showing its face and saying, "We
00:48:11
are big tech company and we will bow down and serve our master if we think this is going to potentially even maybe
00:48:20
hurt our overall business." And that's a there's a chilling effect there. >> Yeah. And then they buy the Melania
00:48:26
movie. They look like idiots. They look like >> I know and you know listen the the
00:48:29
interesting thing I reported on the deal and according to my reporting Amazon is
00:48:34
giving this movie away to Neon. They are not paying a license fee that all that they did was they committed to spend $15
00:48:41
million to market it and release it in theaters which is what the filmmaker wanted because he wanted a big
00:48:48
theatrical release. They're going to do an awards campaign if the reviews are good.
00:48:51
>> It's like the Trump movie. What was the Trump movie? The >> Apprentice. It's very similar to this
00:48:56
day. The Apprentice does not have a streaming deal. >> Oh, >> none of these big streamers bought The
00:49:02
Apprentice. >> And that movie did not do very much business in theaters, but it did pretty
00:49:08
big business on premium video on demand. And it got two major Oscar nominations for
00:49:13
>> it. It was a good movie. It was a good film. This probably will be a good film.
00:49:16
We'll see. >> I haven't seen it. So, there's mixed reactions from the screenings, but good
00:49:21
actors involved and, you know, big talent. And I think >> this was this a good move by Amazon or
00:49:26
just stupid. >> It depends whether you're in LA or Seattle, >> right? >> In Seattle, you know, Mike Cop was
00:49:33
probably gonna get a promotion >> because he managed this. He managed to avoid this problem and get it sold to a
00:49:39
distributor that frankly is probably going to do a better job with a movie like this than Amazon would have. They
00:49:46
just lost a same filmmaker did the Julia Roberts movie um the Me Too movie uh After the Hunt and that movie cost $70
00:49:54
million and did almost no business. So they just had a major flop when they maybe uh Neon will be able to market
00:50:00
this movie. Neon did Anora which ended up winning best picture. >> Big hit. Yeah. Yeah. I thought it was a
00:50:05
perfect film for it. >> In Seattle I think Mike Hopkins gets props for this. In LA I think they take
00:50:12
a big a big credibility hit. you puts. Anyway, and Odyssey, I think it's gonna be enormous hit like,
00:50:18
>> oh, big hit, but not the biggest movie of the year. I mean, we still got Spider-Man coming out and Avengers like,
00:50:23
>> yeah, >> those will likely be much bigger. I think Toy Story will probably Toy Story
00:50:27
5 will probably end up being bigger than the Odyssey. But the win >> is if they can get this movie to 8,
00:50:32
nine, a billion, that would be a big win for this movie. >> For this movie and and and and then
00:50:37
it'll have a huge life. >> Yeah. We think it's the biggest event of the year. Um, but we're old people who
00:50:43
love history and love Chris Nolan. >> Oh, I don't know. My kids are interested in this movie.
00:50:47
>> Okay, that's good to hear. >> That was Well, they off of course were completely interested in Obsession and
00:50:52
Back Rooms. They My son knew everything about Obsession and Back rooms. >> Those two movies are the story of the
00:50:59
year in Hollywood. >> They really are. >> The fact that two tiny movies for Gen Z
00:51:03
audiences can get to three $400 million. >> It's It's such good news for the business. See, I'm not surprised because
00:51:10
it had like it's sort of like heated rival every like what a surprise. I'm like it was an enormous book hit among
00:51:16
those people who like romantic fantasies. Like it was already had an inbuilt audience.
00:51:21
>> Yes. But as much as the media talked about heated rivalry, it was never that big of a mainstream hit.
00:51:28
>> Obsession cost less than a million dollars to make. >> Agreed. But I'm saying all the kids knew
00:51:33
about this stuff. Everyone and they had followed it. Really? Cara, we have not followed up because I remember coming on
00:51:39
your show during the depths of the pandemic where you were saying the movie business theaters are over.
00:51:45
>> I know >> and young people don't care and now every study we see says Gen Z likes
00:51:51
going to movies. >> Let me make a caveat here. I think there's been a a ma here's I'm going to
00:51:56
make another prediction. I think there's a massive move away from social media and online life and to like that same
00:52:02
son is going to church all the time. that same son is going out more. You know what I mean? Like, so, and these
00:52:08
were kids who just wouldn't be seen in a theater. Now, the slightly older one doesn't go to the theater, but he wants
00:52:13
to see the Odyssey for sure in the theater because of the IMAX and everything else. Um, and
00:52:19
>> and Chris Nolan is the brand. He's probably not going because it's based on a book that he had to read in high
00:52:23
school. >> Yes. Yes. No, no, no, no. He definitely he But what I'm saying is there has been
00:52:28
a move away. I think that that you're going to see del massive declines in social media usage and everything else
00:52:33
among young people. They want to have real life encounters. >> My 10-year-old is the same way. He he'll
00:52:38
he'll do the iPad, but he so much prefers playing with his friends and being outside and going to baseball
00:52:45
games or movies or whatever. >> Yeah, there's a shift. There's a real there's a real perceptible I'm taking
00:52:50
these apps off my face. Not everybody, but to me, I feel like all of us want to go out, right? And there's actually good
00:52:57
movies to go out, too. That's the thing and that's the issue whether it's backrooms and obsession for the youngs
00:53:02
or odyssey for the olds. I mean >> do you think in 2030 years we're going to look back on this era like we look
00:53:09
back on the madmen era of everybody smoking all the time? >> Yes, I do. I do because I do think it's
00:53:15
people will incorporate it and I think to me young people are so much smarter about usage online usage than I think
00:53:23
the real problem is 35 to 54 people. Like to me that's the real problematic group of people. But I think you're
00:53:29
right. They they they just made some movies. I don't know if they'll stay going to movies unless they have stuff
00:53:34
that speaks to them, right? That actually >> Well, that is what Hollywood is very
00:53:37
much doing right now. Try to shift the intellectual property paradigm to match this younger audience. Superhero movies
00:53:45
are increasingly for older people and they're looking for IP like Minecraft. There's probably going to be a Roblox
00:53:51
movie there. Super Mario. these properties that are just for younger people and feels they feel ownership
00:53:58
over them. >> Absolutely. And I think that's fine. That's absolutely fine. And if it's a
00:54:01
good movie, everyone like look, I don't think anyone thought Devilish Prodit was
00:54:05
going to make a billion dollars. I mean, >> millennial nostalgia. >> Yes. But it was also a good movie and it
00:54:10
was fun and >> Oh, you're just saying that cuz you were in it. >> I also I was in it and I deserve an
00:54:15
Oscar, but that's another >> I stood up when I saw you. I stood up and applauded.
00:54:20
>> What my favorite thing was someone sent me a note. There was a screening in San
00:54:24
Francisco. This bunch of gay guys um rented the movie theater inside it and then didn't know I was in it and they
00:54:30
shrieked because I'm well known. I'm a well-known gay in San Francisco. But it was very funny. It was fun. But I I
00:54:36
don't I didn't think it was going to be that big, honestly. But it was >> I didn't either. I do a box office draft
00:54:41
with Lucas Shaw and and neither of us uh Sorry. I didn't pick it. He picked it and he got the benefit.
00:54:48
>> Actually, I thought it when I saw it, I was like, "This is a lot of [ __ ] fun.
00:54:51
This is and it's really good and really fun and really actually more and more depth actually. It was good.
00:54:57
>> I picked the Michael Jackson movie though and that's going to get to a billion dollars. So, I'm pretty happy.
00:55:00
>> That's also Yeah, there's some really promising movies. There's a lot of not ones that you're never going to see
00:55:05
again, too. Um, all right, Matt. One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.
00:55:10
>> Support for the show comes from Framer. If your team wants a website that looks
00:55:13
and feels handcrafted, but is still fast to ship, Framer is built for that. You design on a visual canvas with
00:55:19
responsive layouts, hosting, and a CMS built in so the work is production ready from day one. Agents work alongside you
00:55:25
to draft pages and polish sections. Then you review and publish what goes live. Framer is the proite builder for
00:55:31
creators, teams, and businesses that want a professional site and care enough to get every detail right. Agents solve
00:55:37
the gap between AI generated ideas and productionready website work. The agent works in the same place where the real
00:55:42
site is designed, managed, reviewed, and published. It lands on the canvas, stays
00:55:46
editable, and can be published when the team is ready. Agents and framework work
00:55:50
alongside teams to streamline collaboration on the same canvas, build custom code components, create and
00:55:55
manage CMS content, optimize SEO settings, and ship everything all in one place. Learn how you can get more out of
00:56:01
your site from a framer specialist. Or get started building for free today at framer.com/pivot
00:56:07
for 30% off a Framer Pro annual plan. That's framer.com/pivot for 30% off. framer.com/pivot.
00:56:15
Rules and restrictions may apply. >> Okay. Uh Matt, let's hear a prediction. >> All right. So, I have a fun one and a
00:56:23
serious one. Okay. >> I'll do the serious one first. >> Okay. >> I think Netflix will launch a free tier
00:56:31
within a year. >> Oh, >> this is where it's going. all of this low value podcast,
00:56:40
social video, YouTube style content, >> they are going to separate it or have it
00:56:46
available on the paid tier as well, but they're going to put it into this >> free tier that will serve as a top
00:56:52
offunnel for the regular Netflix and hopefully juice their advertising business via engagement.
00:57:00
>> Right. Okay. A little bit of Tuby. Go ahead. a little bit of to compete with those and you know query whether it will
00:57:07
harm the brand or cause people that pay for Netflix to switch to a non-paying situation but it's getting to the point
00:57:16
where Netflix is showing us their cards they are so obsessed with YouTube they will launch a real YouTube competitor in
00:57:23
a free service and they can put some of this old show content that they haven't licensed out anywhere and is not doing
00:57:30
much on the platform form. They can put that on the free tier and have it be like a Tuby or a Pluto TV where it
00:57:36
serves as a funnel for the other services. >> That's a great idea. They could do
00:57:39
deals. Yeah, that's an interesting that's an you know, it was interesting. I saw pictures of Neil Moen from YouTube
00:57:44
and Ted walking into the Sun Valley thing. Uh which was interesting. I was like, I'd like to see them chitty jet.
00:57:50
Like I'd like to be in front of them seeing them. By the way, that thing also looks bad this year for some reason.
00:57:55
Like I never liked it. Never get invited because I'm a pain in the ass. But um but they uh it looks particularly
00:58:03
tonedeaf this year for some reason. But maybe you don't think so. >> I'm interested in the fashion.
00:58:08
>> Oh, okay. The outfits Lauren Lauren Sanchez >> and the David Dazzlo denim on denim
00:58:12
look. >> Denim. He's still that guy works the lesbian look so beautifully. I have to
00:58:18
say >> I'm not going to go there, but it is certainly it's like his his sort of uh
00:58:24
souped-up cowboy look. >> Yeah. Well, I >> I'm sure both those denim jackets cost
00:58:29
face. I'm like, you look like a lesbian I used to date back in the 80s. Anyway, >> all right. Uh, speaking of the gays, do
00:58:35
you want my fun prediction? >> Sure. Yes, please. >> I think the new album from Madonna will
00:58:42
get a album of the year Grammy nomination. >> I'm with you on that. >> Which would be her first since 1998.
00:58:51
Confessions 2 getting unbelievable reviews. Um, I listen to it. You know, dance music's not my thing, but
00:58:57
>> it's good >> for what it is. It's very good. And I think that there's a narrative around
00:59:02
her. She's performing at the World Cup finale. And I think that the buzz around Madonna is she's a survivor and will
00:59:09
score that album of the year nomination from the Grand. >> Yeah, I agree. Let Madonna be Madonna.
00:59:13
She hasn't like stooped. She doesn't do nostalgia. She could easily do a lot of stuff. She did a little bit on that last
00:59:20
tour that I went to. I went to the concert. This is a great album. No, it was not. And it made me sad. And
00:59:26
then now she doesn't dance like she used to. >> She's too slow. I'm like, don't dance.
00:59:30
It's like, who's that guy right now who's dancing? Oh god, there's an old rocker that needs
00:59:35
>> Oh, there was a video of Barry Manalo. >> All of them. I was like, sit down. You
00:59:39
need to sit down. It's I love you so much. And you need But in this case, >> Billy Joel, Elton John, they sit down.
00:59:45
>> They sit down. And but Madonna's album is quite good. It's really It's It's not
00:59:49
just And it's not nostalgia. It's interesting. like it's an interesting and she refuses to be anything but
00:59:53
herself and I I think people kind of like that and I just think she's the OG. >> She should be a pivot guest. I bet she
00:59:58
has opinions on the mergers and acquisitions. >> I Oh, I bet she does. She's as sharp as
01:00:03
a [ __ ] tack. That's one thing about >> she went after her label. Remember she had this whole period where she took a
01:00:09
big deal with Live Nation and she left her longtime record label and was sort of floundering and she criticized Gaio
01:00:17
Siri. She's she's got opinions. I I you know what she really was she sort of she
01:00:22
she walked so Taylor Swift could run. Let's just you know what I mean like in a lot of ways. I'm going to ask you for
01:00:27
one more prediction. >> How you you made a joke about this which made me laugh hysterically but the
01:00:32
Taylor Swift wedding. She she goes she couldn't possibly be preparing a movie about it. Could she? Could she? And then
01:00:38
you said could she? Is she? Will she? >> Okay. So a couple things there. I don't
01:00:45
think it will happen now after I have seen you talked to a lot of people who were there and I've seen how it played
01:00:51
out. She didn't get releases from all the big stars that were there. Now, you could argue that maybe they they put up
01:01:00
signs there that said like this could be filmed, so maybe they could get away with that. But do you think they're
01:01:06
going to put out a special on Disney Plus where Tom Cruz and all these athletes and
01:01:14
>> are dancing on the stage? >> Yeah, there sort of private moments. There were no phones or anything there.
01:01:19
I It would be so tacky to do that. I talked to someone who was there who was saying that was the most interesting
01:01:26
thing about the wedding is seeing all these people like JLo and Tom Cruz and all these people that have had handlers
01:01:33
around them for literally decades be forced to socialize at a party with other famous people without their teams
01:01:42
or their phones or anything. >> Yeah, they must have loved it. They must have loved it.
01:01:46
>> Or they don't know how to interact with people. Someone said JLo was very awkward. So, she's not making a movie
01:01:52
because I would watch the [ __ ] hell out of that. >> Oh, yeah. Everyone would watch. It's not
01:01:55
a matter of whether it would be popular. It's a matter of whether they were are willing to take a a a withdrawal from
01:02:01
the credibility bank to do that because it's so tacky. Even if they made a donation of the money they got to a
01:02:08
charity, it's still pretty tacky. Like, no. Think has any celebrity done that since Kim Kardashian?
01:02:14
>> Feels very Elizabeth Taylor. I bet they I don't know. Kim Kardashian did it with
01:02:19
Chris Humphre and it was a big E special, >> but >> I don't know. I I I >> She might not.
01:02:26
>> Maybe I have more faith in Taylor than you do. I still I just think it's be so
01:02:31
tacky that they won't do it. >> Yeah. Okay. All right. I'm asking you. That's why I want to know. I'm just
01:02:35
telling you. I'd watch the hell out of it and I wouldn't consider it tacky. >> And all the people who went there just
01:02:39
the level of people would find it to be, I think, a bit of a betrayal. Although at the same time they all managed to get
01:02:46
pictures themselves like here I am going to the thing. >> A lot of them did but a lot of them
01:02:50
didn't. A lot of the executives didn't and you know it's the people who already have big
01:02:56
>> followings on social media who leveraged it. >> She'll she'll she'll release a few short
01:03:01
videos and tasteful >> that I agree with. The question is will she do it with the brand or will she do
01:03:06
it on her own channels? >> On her own. >> She's bigger than any media property. Everyone's like oh give the photos to
01:03:11
Vogue. Why the hell does she need Vogue? Hey, does she need Vogue? She could do it. She
01:03:16
>> does media stuff when it builds the brand. She did the time person of the year. She She will do stuff with media
01:03:22
when it suits her. But for this one, just put it on your socials. >> Put it on your social. She doesn't need
01:03:26
anybody. She doesn't She'll make a big album out of it in a news tour and that'll be that.
01:03:30
>> I know people are already joking about the what the divorce album's going to be.
01:03:34
>> Oh, stop it. It's not happening. That's you know, although the guy who did Jack
01:03:39
Antinoff is getting a divorce from Marquali. Um They're separated. Cara, let's not jump to conclusions.
01:03:46
>> All right. I I'll try not to, but that No one saw that coming. Anyway, uh this
01:03:51
one I think is for life. I do I have to believe in them. I I really don't even like straight people that much. So, but
01:03:57
I I believe in this wedding. I don't know why. >> I I I am a Taylor Swift fan and I enjoy
01:04:03
Travis Kelce as a football player and a media personality. >> I hope this works out.
01:04:08
>> Nothing but the I do. I believe in them. I hate I mean honestly >> even if it doesn't work out I hope it
01:04:13
gives the world a Taylor Swift baby. >> I feel like it's going to I have a feeling it's going to I don't know.
01:04:19
Anyway, we want to I know I'm stupid. We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or
01:04:24
whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot. Submit a question for the show or call
01:04:28
8551 pivot. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like
01:04:33
and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week. Uh Matt, thank you so much. I really enjoy talking to
01:04:39
you. You're really such a pleasure. >> I appreciate you having me on. I am very much looking forward to learning where
01:04:44
Scott is right now >> and tell people where what everyone they can watch and read you obviously. I
01:04:49
would subscribe. I I don't like everyone at Puck as you know, but I love you. I love Eric. I love Cohen. You know, so
01:04:56
many things. >> You can subscribe to Puck at puck.news and you can listen to the town uh on all
01:05:01
the platforms, YouTube, Spotify. >> Terrific. You do a terrific job. You do a terrific job at it and it's a really
01:05:07
great podcast. Anyway, I really appreciate it. Thank you for being here. And Scott will be back next week for
01:05:12
wherever he is.