Why the NFL Has No Clear Super Bowl Favorite
Episode Description
ABOUT THE EPISODE Is this NFL season more wide open than it appears?
Brian Burke, Sports Data Scientist at ESPN, and Kevin Cole, Data Scientist at PFF, use football analytics to examine the season ahead. Burke explains how tracking data is changing the way teams measure pass protection and pressure, while Cole breaks down quarterback projections, team strength, and why the league's top contenders may be closer together than expected.
ABOUT THE PODCAST Sports is a game of numbers. Wharton experts Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, Cade Massey, and Adi Wyner team up to tackle the world of sports, from current events to longstanding issues such as: What sports streaks are the most impressive? How do you rank the best players? Can athletes be compared across sports? Moneyball Highlights explains how decision-makers in the game can avoid the common mistakes and embrace the data. Episodes are recorded at the Wharton School.
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Brief Summary
Brian Burke and Kevin Cole discuss NFL analytics, player metrics, and predictions for the upcoming season.
Key points
- Brian Burke's Competitive Spirit. Brian Burke shares his excitement about participating in a time trial this weekend.
- The Playbook Telecast. Brian discusses his new role in a simulcast of Monday Night Football, focusing on analytics.
- Predictive Metrics in Football. Brian reveals that their pass block win rate correlates with play outcomes, showing its predictive power.
- Bull Rush Analysis. Brian explains the significance of bull rush wins and their effect on quarterback performance.
- Quarterback League Dynamics. The discussion emphasizes how crucial quarterbacks are in determining team success.
- Brian's Bold Prediction. Brian predicts the Rams might not make the playoffs, challenging media narratives.
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Episode highlights
- Brian Burke's Competitive SpiritBrian Burke shares his excitement about participating in a time trial this weekend.“It's my first competitive event.”2:23Sep 9, 2026
- The Playbook TelecastBrian discusses his new role in a simulcast of Monday Night Football, focusing on analytics.“It's a very analytic, heavy, kind of smart football.”3:32Sep 9, 2026
- Predictive Metrics in FootballBrian reveals that their pass block win rate correlates with play outcomes, showing its predictive power.“It's definitely predictive because it's reliable from year over year.”14:01Sep 9, 2026
- Bull Rush AnalysisBrian explains the significance of bull rush wins and their effect on quarterback performance.“It has a huge effect.”18:14Sep 9, 2026
- Quarterback League DynamicsThe discussion emphasizes how crucial quarterbacks are in determining team success.“It really is a quarterback league.”21:50Sep 9, 2026
- Brian's Bold PredictionBrian predicts the Rams might not make the playoffs, challenging media narratives.“Brian says Rams aren't going to make the playoffs. He says, media's wrong.”23:33Sep 9, 2026
- Bayesian Quarterback ModelKevin explains his Bayesian model for ranking quarterbacks based on performance data.“I do something where I've found it's a Bayesian model.”28:50Sep 9, 2026
- Mahomes' Potential ComebackMahomes has the potential to jump back to his outstanding performance levels.“He has the potential to jump back.”39:11Sep 9, 2026
