How the NFL Uses Data to Shape Rules and Create New Metrics
Episode Description
ABOUT THE EPISODE Michael Lopez, Senior Director of Football Data and Analytics at the NFL, joins the Moneyball team to explain the use of causal inference and drive simulations in shaping the modern game of football. Plus, Eric and Adi explore the mathematical phenomenon of regression to the mean and how it applies to the unprecedented career trajectories of athletes like Carlos Alcaraz and Shohei Ohtani.
ABOUT THE PODCAST Sports is a game of numbers. Wharton experts Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, Cade Massey, and Adi Wyner team up to tackle the world of sports, from current events to longstanding issues such as: What sports streaks are the most impressive? How do you rank the best players? Can athletes be compared across sports? Moneyball Highlights explains how decision-makers in the game can avoid the common mistakes and embrace the data. Episodes are recorded at the Wharton School.
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Brief Summary
Mike Lopez discusses NFL analytics, the Big Data Bowl, and player tracking data's impact on football strategy and safety.
Key points
- The Big Data Bowl's Impact. The Big Data Bowl has transformed how data is used in football, leading to new metrics and insights.
- Innovations in NFL Analytics. Mike Lopez discusses how the NFL uses data to enhance player performance and game strategies.
- Quarterback Scrambles Record. The NFL set a record for quarterback scrambles this season, highlighting a shift in play.
- Super Bowl Surprises. This year's Super Bowl features teams that were long shots in the preseason.
- Preseason Predictions Questioned. The unexpected Super Bowl matchup raises questions about the accuracy of preseason models.
- Alcaraz's Historic Win. Carlos Alcaraz won the Australian Open at just 22, two years younger than Nadal.
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Episode highlights
- The Big Data Bowl's ImpactThe Big Data Bowl has transformed how data is used in football, leading to new metrics and insights.“We turned from the competition into a new metric for our NGS team.”7:54Feb 6, 2026
- Innovations in NFL AnalyticsMike Lopez discusses how the NFL uses data to enhance player performance and game strategies.“Our job is to make the game better.”11:14Feb 6, 2026
- Quarterback Scrambles RecordThe NFL set a record for quarterback scrambles this season, highlighting a shift in play.“This year set an NFL record with 1,089 quarterback scrambles.”18:12Feb 6, 2026
- Super Bowl SurprisesThis year's Super Bowl features teams that were long shots in the preseason.“None of the top teams were thought to be in the Super Bowl.”19:54Feb 6, 2026
- Preseason Predictions QuestionedThe unexpected Super Bowl matchup raises questions about the accuracy of preseason models.“Maybe our preseason models need updating.”23:40Feb 6, 2026
- Alcaraz's Historic WinCarlos Alcaraz won the Australian Open at just 22, two years younger than Nadal.“He’s got seven Grand Slam titles.”33:04Feb 6, 2026
- Forecasting Alcaraz's FutureDiscussion on Alcaraz's potential to win more majors in the coming years.“It’s not unreasonable to predict over the next four or five years...”39:21Feb 6, 2026
- Djokovic's Grand Slam RecordDebate over Djokovic's status as the greatest tennis player due to his finals record.“He has the worst winning percentage in Grand Slam finals by far.”42:28Feb 6, 2026





