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You know, I'm just worried about
the future. I think we all focus
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on this point where this
singularity is going to happen,
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when AI will really outsmart us.
And everybody thinks that this
00:00:13
point will come from AI getting
better and better. But there is
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an alternative story here of
humans becoming more and more
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relying— reliant on AI. And just
like we now have right now, an
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air conditioner that can set our
temperature easily, and we can
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move from one place to another
without using any physical
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activity, just like many of us
have lost something because of
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this maybe cultural or
technological evolution, we may
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lose, as a species, something very
critical to our existence, which
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is our capacity to think.
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Welcome to <i>The Ripple Effect</i>,
the podcast that takes you on a journey
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through the minds of Wharton faculty.
00:00:59
I'm your host, Dan Loney.
And in each episode,
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we'll be diving deep into the inspiration
behind the groundbreaking research
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that Wharton professors have conducted,
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and exploring how their findings
resonate with the world today.
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We are certainly seeing how much
artificial intelligence is
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impacting our lives with the
advent of the technology and how
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it is changing things like our
work. But how does it change our
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decision process? That's a
question that is addressed in
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recent research, and pleasure to
have the authors of that
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research joining us here today.
Gideon Nave, who's an Associate
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Professor of Marketing here at
the Wharton School, and Steven
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Shaw, who is a postdoctoral
researcher here at Wharton.
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Gentlemen, great to have you
both with us.
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Thanks for your time today.
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Thanks for having us.
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Let me start out, I guess,
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what was the genesis of wanting
to do this specific type of
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research? Steven, I'll start
with you. Looking at the decision
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process. I mean, we see about it
from a business perspective, and
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you know, the day to day impact
there, but the decision process
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is probably just as important.
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Yeah. I mean, I
think, you know, we can observe
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things in nature. And just
observing how integrated AI has
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become in our daily lives, we
sort of felt that the
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ability to actually outsource
thinking hadn't really been
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studied itself. So it's
sort of a profound idea. A bit
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provocative, I would say, in the
paper, that— you know, with these
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AI tools that are available,
they're so ingrained in our
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daily lives and decision
processes that we now have the
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option or ability to actually
outsource thinking itself.
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Gideon, what was it that drew
your attention to this side of
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artificial intelligence?
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You know, I've been studying
decision processes for a while,
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and we know that there are
certain theories that account
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for how people make decisions
and how they use all the
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sorts of types of decision
processes, from intuition to
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more deliberate analytical
thinking. And I think that, you
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know, technology in the past was
integrated as a kind of a block
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that you can maybe offload some
of your cognition into, perform
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certain tasks, like using a
calculator or using a GPS to
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navigate. But to me, it sounds
like the current theories of how
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humans make judgments and
decisions must be going through
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some update once we have these
devices that really, as Steve
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said, can really replace thinking
itself. And it's very important
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to start trying to account for
this theoretically and define
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all sorts of tendencies and
constructs so we can really
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study it in the future.
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And Steven, I guess this is kind
of one of the next steps. When
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you think about how artificial
intelligence is truly impacting
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our lives, we probably think
about people's reasoning, and
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have thought about it off and on
for many decades. But obviously
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not in the perspective of how
artificial intelligence is going
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to impact that process.
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Yeah, yeah. And that's, again,
one of the arguments that we
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make in the paper is really, we
have these classic models. For
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example, the dual process model
that Giddy has talked about,
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intuitions and deliberations.
But the reliance that we see, and
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the ability and the integration
of AI that we see in society now
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just really changes the options
that we have for making
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decisions. And it does so so
dramatically that we need to
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update our— many of our old
models in cognitive—
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cognitive science and psychology
and marketing.
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Right. And so Gideon, it's no longer
kind of a dual process. It's a
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three-tiered process that we
probably have to bring into
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play here, correct?
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Yeah, we added kind of
artificial cognition as a third
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model. And I think what's
interesting is not only
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that we have this system and it
adds to it, but the existence of
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this system, just its mere
existence, changes how we engage
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our other thinking modes. It
changes how we use intuition, it
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changes how we use deliberation,
and it also, surprisingly, also
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changes how confident we are in
our responses, even ones that
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are not really critically
examined by ourselves. So there
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are a lot of interesting effects
going on here. And some of them
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are maybe a bit dark, going to
the future, if we think that
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these really are going to affect
the tendencies in behavior of
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humans nowadays.
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Steven, does— does having a dual
process now become— adding this
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third component— does the dual
process run into any roadblocks
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along the way, as AI is becoming
a greater component of our lives?
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Sure, yeah. And that's, you
know, one of the big things we
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show experimentally in the
paper. We call it cognitive
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surrender. Basically, you know,
with access— just simply having
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the option of having AI
available for decision making—
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people can surrender their
thought to AI and let it sort of
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think for them. So they're
basically subverting the whole
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internal brain set of processes,
subverting and substituting
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system one, system two, and
instead, adopting answers from
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what we call system three. And
as Giddy said, we saw— even, you
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know, when cognitive surrender
is engaged, people adopt those
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answers and are more confident
in those answers.
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Do they rely on them more often,
then?
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We saw— so in our experiments, we
saw— it was optional. You know,
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we just put ChatGPT in a
window. And they were doing some
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sort of logic and reasoning
questions. We said, you can use
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AI if you want to, but you don't
have to. And so we saw over 50%
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of the time, they consulted ChatGPT.
And once they consulted
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ChatGPT, adoption rates were
very high, even when AI was
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incorrect, gave them the
incorrect answer, which we
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experimentally manipulated,
people adopted the answer over
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80% of the time.
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Giddy, one of the things that I
know I have talked with many
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people about is the business
side of how bringing AI into the
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business world is going to
impact so many different
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processes on a day-to-day basis
in companies. One of the things
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that is brought up is how it
impacts labor and how people
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kind of interact with artificial
intelligence. It seems like part
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of this research also can kind
of lead us down the path to
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better understand what that
relationship is going to be like
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with companies and their
employees, and what's going to
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be expected from them as we move
forward because of the AI
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component and the decision
process being impacted.
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Yeah. I mean, let's say it this way. If
we are completely surrendering
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our thinking to AI, what value
do we bring to a company? It's
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not clear. So even this tendency
to surrender, maybe, something
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that in the future, companies
would want to consider before
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they're hiring somebody. I don't
want to have some person that
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just basically is giving me
what the AI can already give
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me. I can get this by myself.
And that also tells us, you
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know, if we think of the
education of the next business
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leaders, obviously this is a
skill that we want to make sure
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that people have and not lose,
the capacity to think
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critically, the capacity to be
able to check what the AI is
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giving you. It's become more and
more important over time. So
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this is kind of a muscle— muscle
that we have, that hopefully we
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are not going to lose over time.
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How much of a challenge, Steven,
potentially, is that? Because I
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think at times we do feel like
AI, is this— is this beautiful
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benefit that we now have in our
lives. But we still need to have
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that critical thinking as we
move forward on so many things,
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not only in our business lives,
but in our personal lives as well.
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Yeah. And that's the key
question, right? I mean, how do
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we maintain critical thinking
skills in the age of AI? And you
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said, you know, how fundamental
is that? Well, I mean, I think
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we're only at the beginning of
the age of AI, right? And this
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technological integration is
just getting started. Right
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now, we are constrained by
communicating with the LLMs
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through our phones or our
computers. And as those barriers
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reduce, right, that integration
is just going to become,
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you know, stronger.
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What did you take away from
doing this research, Steven,
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that really resonated with you?
Either— maybe even something that
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you didn't even expect you were
going to see play out?
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How readily people were willing
to cognitively surrender.That
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was pretty shocking. And how
well the experiments worked,
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you know, based on our theoretical
contribution of this tri-system
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theory of cognition.
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Gideon, what about you?
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You know, I'm just worried about the
future. I think we all focus on this point
00:10:46
where this singularity is going
to happen, when AI will really
00:10:51
outsmart us. And everybody
thinks that this point will come
00:10:53
from AI getting better and
better. But there is an
00:10:57
alternative story here of humans
becoming more and more relying—
00:11:01
reliant on AI. And just like we
now have, right now, an air
00:11:05
conditioner that can set our
temperature easily, and we can
00:11:08
move from one place to another
without using any physical
00:11:13
activity, just like many of us
have lost something because of
00:11:19
this, maybe, cultural or
technological evolution we may
00:11:26
lose, as a species, something very
critical to our existence, which
00:11:31
is our capacity to think.
00:11:33
But going back to something you
said a little while ago, then
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the learning process for people
in general is going to change,
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because we have this component,
and it is going to be a part of
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almost everything we do moving
forward.
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We may or we may not. You know,
typically, we know that the
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technology— technological
development moves much faster
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than any policy change. It's
difficult for policy and
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educational systems to respond
very quickly to what is
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happening here. I don't know
what going to be the
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answer. And of course, there are
a lot of different perspectives
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and different disagreements.
What we suggested is provocative
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to some degree. It's not obvious
that everybody would favor it.
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Even, you know, you can say, "I
want freedom. Let the market
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solve itself." And with freedom,
sometimes you get outcomes that
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are, at the end of the day,
determined by power imbalances.
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I don't know where we are
headed here. We are, as
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academics— are here to maybe try
to blow the whistle on it. We
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can't do much more than that.
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Steve, having done this research
now, is there a next logical
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step that maybe you would like
to take as you maybe delve
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deeper into this further?
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Sure. Yeah. I mean, so in, we—
one of the part of— the part of the
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title of the paper is "the rise
of cognitive surrender," right?
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So we now know that this
phenomenon exists. And the
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question is, when is it
adaptive? When is it good to
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outsource your thought to AI,
right? AI gives us access to
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super intelligence. There are
many instances where, you know,
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turning off thought can be a
good thing. But in a lot of high
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stakes contexts— education,
healthcare, right? We don't want
00:13:29
that to be happening. And so how
do we fight the rise of
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cognitive surrender in those
contexts? Is it on the user
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side, on the human side, through
AI literacy and training, or is
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it on the UX design side by
putting in different types of
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prompting or roadblocks that
make sure or try to induce
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critical thinking, you know, as
those decisions are being made?
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Well, I guess for either one
of you, that brings up— not
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that this is specifically in
your research, but Gideon, it
00:14:00
brings up kind of the regulatory
side of this, of just how much
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of a role regulatory may have in
a lot of these developments as
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we move forward.
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We're going to see, at the end of
the day, how the software
00:14:13
companies or the AI companies
will respond to this, how
00:14:16
policymakers will respond to
this, how educational
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institutions will respond to
this. I think what we have, but
00:14:23
that is quite nice in this
paper, is that we have a very
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clear method of measuring
cognitive surrender. And now we
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can try to take into the lab all
sorts of interventions and see
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how we can maybe move it around.
And that's going to be quite a
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useful research tool.
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Gentlemen, I appreciate the
time. Good luck with the
00:14:47
research as you move forward.
All the best.
00:14:50
Thanks for having us.
- Thanks, Dan.
00:14:52
Thank you. Gideon Nave,
Associate Professor
00:14:54
of Marketing here at the Wharton
School, and Stephen Shaw,
00:14:57
postdoctoral researcher here at
Wharton.
00:15:00
Thank you for listening
00:15:01
to <i>The Ripple Effect</i>. We hope
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00:15:03
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