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The Overpriced Tight End Problem

April 29, 2026 / 01:13

This episode discusses the uncertainty in NFL draft predictions, the rise of overpriced blocking tight ends, and the impact of team strategies on player valuations.

The conversation highlights how models can be inaccurate due to large confidence intervals, as mentioned by the speaker. They emphasize the need for analysts to accept frequent errors in draft predictions.

Specific attention is given to the trend of NFL teams, particularly the Rams, utilizing three tight end sets, which has influenced the market for blocking tight ends.

Seth Walder from ESPN is referenced for his insights on player valuations, noting that some tight ends were undervalued by the draft community but recognized correctly by teams.

The episode illustrates the disconnect between machine learning models and real-world team strategies, stressing the importance of understanding the nuances in player evaluations.

TLDR

NFL draft predictions are uncertain, especially for blocking tight ends.

Episode

1:13

00:00:00

So, I mean, you could come up with a model that could be 95% right, but then the confidence intervals are huge and it

00:00:05

just has no meaningful interpretation. To me, there's just a lot of uncertainty

00:00:09

with the draft, and so you just kind of have to get used to being wrong a lot. And then there's also these correlated

00:00:13

errors you mentioned. So, one of the things that was the story of round two and three of the draft this year was the

00:00:18

rise of the what I would call the overpriced blocking tight end. You know, a lot of NFL teams are following the

00:00:23

money around what is innovation in the NFL, and the Rams ran a lot of three tight end sets where you need a blocking

00:00:31

tight end to have the threat of the run game, and teams want to be able to run those. And so, they were like, "Well, if

00:00:36

that's the new innovation, we want to be able to get that." It bumped up the

00:00:39

price in the draft of the blocking tight ends. Seth Walder from ESPN asked a bunch of team sources about a bunch of

00:00:46

players who went earlier than expected and asked them, "Is that really a reach?" And for the blocking tight ends,

00:00:51

he said, "Actually, I think they were just a lot very undervalued by the draft

00:00:56

community this year and overvalued or maybe more valued, correctly, by the teams. So, you could pick these up in a

00:01:02

model, but if you just jammed everything into a machine learning model, it missed

00:01:06

that all the time.

Episode Highlights

The Rise of Blocking Tight Ends
NFL teams are increasingly valuing blocking tight ends, leading to a draft price surge.
“If that's the new innovation, we want to be able to get that.”
@ 00m 36s
April 29, 2026

Episode Quotes

Actually, I think they were just a lot very undervalued by the draft community.
The Overpriced Tight End Problem

Key Moments

Draft Uncertainty00:09
Tight End Innovation00:36
Valuation Shift00:51