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Welcome to Wharton Moneyball. Welcome to a full hour of sports analytics here on
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the Wharton podcast network. This is Kate Massie hosting this week with most of the crew. We have Eric Bradow in
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here. We have Audi Winer in here. Our fourth co-host Shane Jensen is out and about doing Shane Jensen things. He'll
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be back. Some combination of us are here almost every week of the year and have been for going on what is it 11 and a
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half years now. Well over 10 years now. This is a time of year where everything we love is going on. We've got baseball
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warming up. We've got pro football kicking off and we've got college football off the ground. Things have
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happened. There are things to talk about, real football to talk about, real things to react to. We're going to
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follow our typical format this week. We're going to have a guest in here for
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the first half hour and then open up open open topics for the second half hour. our guest. Well, it's college
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football time, so one of our regular college football guests and one of our favorite all-time guests, Stephen
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Godfrey, is here. Stephen's been gracing us for years now. Stephen is the co-host
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of the FA Phantom Island podcast. He is co-host of Yahoo Sports College football
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podcast called The Inquirer, I believe, along with Andy Staples and Ross Dinger.
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And he's a columnist at the Washington Post. Stephen has been at the center of
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college football dialogue for a long time now and it's always fun to talk to
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him. Stephen, thanks for making time for us, man. Appreciate it. >> Thanks for having me, guys. I'm very
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excited to um add nothing to mathematical conversation whatsoever. >> Well, I feel like you've always indulged
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us. Well, you've >> I feel like I make that joke every time I come on.
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>> Well, somehow you keep coming back, though. We appreciate that. I think not
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all journalists are interested in talking with a bunch of data data geeks. >> Oh, no. Oh, I mean that's kind of how I
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got my podcasting start with Bill Connelly. So, I mean I Yeah, I'm used to it. It's a little bit like interpreting
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one of your friends at a dinner party to a to another friend who doesn't work in
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that field. >> That's kind of what journalism should be. If if we want to get if we want to
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get a little existential for a second to take trying to translate someone's expertise into layman terms for other
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people to absorb it. That's basically all >> that's great. >> Yeah. It's just it's it's divisive
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communication. That's all. I can I let me just jump in there Stephen for a second because you know um you know for
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20 years I've been running various forms of centers here at Wharton on analytics
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and AI and machine learning and I agree with you one of the biggest challenges we have what we have a shortage of in my
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view tremendously in the business world etc is people that can do that translation so I cannot just I cannot
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agree with you more it's the hardest thing I can tell me as an academic maybe
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K naughty feel differently is translating the work that I do which can be technical
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but to a very broad audience and and not but not to a level that doesn't mean
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it's meaningful. It's really hard. So I can just tell you for myself as part of
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Wharton Moneyball, we're appreciative of the work you do. >> No, I love coming on. This is and
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usually we we end up in a dialogue that's a lot further along than than the typical sort of sports radio tropes, if
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you will. So, but we can do those too if you want. I mean, we can talk about Texas.
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>> You know that I'm going to want to. Um it does strike me though at the risk of
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propping you up too much. it. >> No, no, not not that. >> Well, hold on. No, I'm I want to do
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that, but first I want to say one other thing. Um, it's possible that your conversations, your podcast with Connley
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helped advance the whole analytics conversation. I mean, Bill's on, you know, Bill's in the center of things
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now. Everybody refers to his work now. And you and him, you were like, you were like proof of concept that he could have
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a meaningful college football conversation with a regular football guy. And it was it was a wonderful
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podcast. But I bet it I bet it did make a difference, Stephen. I bet that was a contribution to the whole analytics
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movement in the last whatever 10 or 12 years. >> Yeah. But no, Bill and I kind of tapped
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into something which is that a lot of people want to learn more about the sport. A lot of people have, let's call
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it, groundbreaking data or things that they've worked on. And so if you can just work on translating that, what we
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found, and Bill Connley is now at ESPN, by the way, and he's great at what he
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does. uh when he first developed what he used to call the S&P plus metric system,
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now it's the SP plus metric system. He um I think he had a hard time getting in
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the door with coaches, with media, with people to understand its intrinsic value. But if you sit down and you
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really kind of walk it out in layman's terms, I think there are very I think if
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anybody's listening who's a quant or you know I don't know if that's a I don't
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know if that's a pjorative or not. That's what we call them in the media.
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That's what we call pull ourselves. We call ourselves that. >> Okay. In the sports media world, we just
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say, "Hey, you know, ask a quant." I there's a there's a it's all about the
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translation. Like I I think people do really want for what advanced statistics and advanced analytics can provide. I
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think it's just sometimes it get you lose the forest for the trees a little bit. I do think we and maybe maybe y'all
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can provide anecdotes that push back on this, but in my corner of the world, it seems like we've crossed some sort of
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Rubicon where you don't have the traditional redneck football coach pushing back the way that we used to or
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just saying, "Hey, that's a bunch of nonsense." If anything, I think, you
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know, well, first off, I think the median age of decision-making coaches, be it coordinator or head coach, just
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decision makers in general, is going down. I think they're embracing outside
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thought. And I think I think being counterintuitive has provided really, you know, good results for a lot of
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them. So I don't think there's this hesitancy, you know, just to go to some
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of these coaching conventions and and a lot of those guys have rolled their eyes
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in the past. I think they're I think they're most of them are embracing it.
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There are still a few communions amongst us, but I think that's helped a lot. I
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think fans have responded in kind as well. >> Is the embrace a result of proven
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success? And if that's and because that's usually how would happen like in
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baseball >> teams were doing it were winning and you just couldn't ignore it anymore. Um but
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there was a couple of principles that just people just changed their minds on and the and now they're embracing it in
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football. Is there any it's is there anything you could point to? Would it be
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fourth down decision-m or >> Yeah, that's the first place I'd go actually is is I'll give you a great
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example. Week zero was uh Kansas State and Iowa State in Ireland, the the sort of like faux kickoff game or what have
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you. Fairly traditional offenses, which is a big broad term to use, but a fairly
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traditional offense on both sides of the law, especially with M. Campbell. Pretty
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conservative, almost sort of like redundant in his decision-m with his offense, right? There was a lot of
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fourth down, I guess, like adventurous decision- making you could call it. There was a
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lot of we're going to go for it in certain situations that The thing that struck me was that it no
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one talked about it. Five years ago, we there would have been two or three think
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pieces going into week one about did you can you believe that Matt Campbell did this? Can you believe he absorbed this
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amount of risk? I think it's become common place in the industry even amongst coaches who are again not really
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who don't really embrace what y'all do to be more aggressive on fourth down
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because the numbers have susted it out. I I I think they believe in the numbers.
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That's probably the best example that I can think of off the top of my head.
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There's some there are some other ones definitely, >> but are they the are they the easy cases
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or are they generally moved on to the hard ones? So the easy cases are the fourth and ones in the red zone that
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used to be field goals and now they're going for it almost exclusively. But maybe the harder cases are those still
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are those would those uh raise some eyebrows if you decided for example it's
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fourth and one in your own territory 35 yard line. >> Sure. that's and the and the and the
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right play is to go for it. Would that be something that they would embrace or they still saying no way?
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>> Uh maybe some of the triple option teams like you know fourth and one they might
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feel good about it. But um you know what one of the things one of the things that
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has spurred along let's call it adventurous decision- making in fourth down is that the average IQ of the fan
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has increased. I'm not taking credit for that with PAPN or anything else, but we
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brought quant we brought quant in and we said, hey, this is why or hey, you know,
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once you're once you're across the opponent's 45, you need to go for it all
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the time. Remember, Iowa was really popular for a long time, guys. That Iowa philosophy of like, you know, they're
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punting on the opponent's 19. I feel like, you know, up until a couple years
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ago, and that was like how we that that's, you know, that conservatism ruled college football. I think there's
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outside pressure on some of these coaches throughout a very long offseason to ask those questions and say, "Hey,
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you know, up on hey guys, on the TV, some booster is going to go up to that head coach and say, hey, on the TV it
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said you guys had x amount of probability of a success rate on going for it on fourth down. Why didn't you?"
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So, I think that because advanced analytics has risen to the level it has, I think that coaches have to account for
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when the math says to do something and they choose against it. There needs to be a concrete example of why they didn't
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do it. Was it a personnel issue? Was there an injury? What was going on? >> So, Stephen, let me ask you just a quick
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question. It's also relates to how do you decide what to translate? And what I
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mean by that is let's take this week in college football. Obviously, there was,
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you know, Ohio State beating Texas, but you know, it's not like on a surprising
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factor. It's not like that's that surprising. You had maybe um Alabama losing, right? That's probably a little
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higher on the surprising factor. You could argue USF blowing out Boise State. I don't know, maybe that's a little
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surprising, but who cares kind of thing, >> right? >> How do you think about the intersection
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of surprising and interesting to your readers and and and to when you pick even like games to comment on or talk
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about? So, I'm I'm only I I can't ever exceed the limits of narrative
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structure, which is a fancy way of saying I have to keep a casual attention span engaged. I have to find a primary
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concept and then I have to find supporting information. Now, the better the supporting information, which I've
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often found in advanced analytics, the stronger my argument can be. So, I'm going to give you a really specific
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example of how I used it this weekend. Sorry, uh apologies in advance. I'm going to talk about Texas, but I called
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up a friend of mine, Parker Fleming. Um, his he's a stats of war on social media.
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Parker um has is an uh industry analyst. He works as a consultant and adviser to
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a lot of different football teams. So, Parker's a friend of mine and after the
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Texas game, I'm going to back up since we're talking to we're talking to
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Wharton, we're talking to some Philly, right? There is an Eagles playoff game.
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So, I'm a lifelong Atlanta Falcons fan, which might be cause for you guys to, I
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don't know, call in some sort of like social services on me, but I'm a lifelong Atlanta Falcons fan. There's an
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Eagles Falcons playoff game in 2017 that ends in an truly bizarre play call by Sarkc, and I trust me, I'm going
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somewhere with this. Sarkc was the offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons before he went back to the
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college ranks and even went back to Alabama. Um Malcolm Jenkins, the the Eagle safety at the time said, "We knew
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exactly what they were going to do as soon as they broke the huddle and they put three allproce on one side of the
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field and a fullback lined up in the flat on them." Is is one of the most confounding plays. This is goal to go
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fourth and goal with the game on the line. Okay, flash forward to last year. Actually, flash forward to two years
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ago, the Texas Washington playoff game. And remember how that game ends on offense. Okay, now flash forward to last
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year's playoff game, which is that really sort of bizarre series of play calls at the goal line against Ohio
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State for Texas. Now, Caleb Downs did Caleb down things. There are exceptional physical feats that break math, right?
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That you can't account for the probability of something happening. However, Sark's decisionmaking,
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absolutely mind-blowing in that situation. So, we saw a little bit of that again on Saturday. Now, a lot of it
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was just they're in a goal to go situation. They're going to push push. They can't get there. But there was that
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sort of spectre of Sarkc's inability to call red zone plays in big moments. So,
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how do I go from it's a thing we all feel to actually laying out a narrative
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structure for someone to absorb? How do I take it out of the realm of opinion? So, I asked Parker specifically after
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the game at was it 3:30 on Saturday, Central time? I said, "Is there any kind
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of stat? is there any kind of number that backs up the sort of LOL shark red zone meme that we've all been kind of
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picking at on social media for last years. So he comes back about 20 minutes later and he says yes decisively and he
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pulls up this thing called quality drive rate. Quality drive rate it used to be called echle apparently in y'all's world
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but basically all it really means is that a quality drive is a drive in which you have one first down inside the
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opponent's 40. And that right there, I can tell anybody that. I can explain that on talk radio. I can explain that
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at a dinner party. You have one first down inside the opponent's 40. That's a
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quality drive. Okay. Then he gives me a second stat, which is points per quality
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drive. Again, I've still got your attention. You're the most casual person
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in the world. It doesn't matter what your education level or affinity for math is. You understand on that quality
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drive, did you get points out of it? And so what we found was that in 2023, that
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year they lost to Washington in the playoffs, they were sixth in the country in quality uh drive rate. That means
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that they were one of the best offenses in the country. They were 107th in points per quality drive. That's it. And
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that's all. Those numbers suddenly become very simple and and comstable for any sports fan to understand. Hey, Stark
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is hell on wheel between the 20. He commands one of the most talented offenses and he's very creative. But
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there is a discernable problem here when he gets to the red zone. And when I took
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that stat and I took it to the Yahoo show the following day, what we can then bridge that into is non-traditional
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football or more traditional football talk where Andy Staples or someone else could say, "Hey, the field shrinks
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inside the red zone. They've got this personnel issue. Maybe they don't have
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short yardage. Maybe they're not getting enough push and doing traditional run
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plays." So I just took all the advanced analytics like I I could not have provided you quality drive rate from a
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mathematics standpoint. But what I did was I took Parker's work and I turned it
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into a single conversation piece. And now people can go from, hey, I kind of think Sarkc sucks inside the 20 to math
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says you suck inside the 20. And math tends to not be argued with except in American politics.
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>> Terrific example. Just last week we had Ralph Russo on and we asked Ralph where
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his kind of quant curiosity came from and he explained that he was first a baseball fan and he got a kick out of
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Bill James. Bill was a phenomenal is a phenomenal innovator but one of the things he's probably best at is
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simplifying his insights providing real just >> direct ways into the bottom line not
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this fancy stuff >> and that's a it's a bit of what you're talking about there. We love Parker.
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We've had Parker on the show. We follow Parker. But that's a that is a great if
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painful it's a painful distillation. You >> it is >> some more they raises a different
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question for me and that is >> okay. >> How often do we see coaches address
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their weak spots? I mean it takes so many different things to be a major football coach either NFL or NCAA.
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So many different. No one's going to be good at all of them. And so the ones
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that last are the ones who somehow buttress and fill in and complement their weaknesses.
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How often do we see that happen? And I mean, Sarc has shown a fair bit of humility. He's been through some
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challenging things in life. He does a lot really well. This seems to be a weakness of his. How often do we see a
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coach willing to address that kind of weakness? >> This is what I love about analytics is
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that it takes it it essentially divorces the ego that there there really it takes
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away the personality trait. It takes away the ego. It takes away the humanity, which is sometimes considered
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to be a slight against mathematics. But in this case, I think my answer is how close is the adjustment to your
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identity? If you have defensive gaps, NFL, college, whatever, but you're an offensive pedigreed head coach, you came
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up as an offensive coordinator, you will correct very quickly and it will involve
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firing someone, right? And you'll replace them and you will corrected for that. But what I'm talking about with
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Sarge specifically, and this isn't a personal attack, this is just something
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again I know I I first noticed this as a fan. And then and when he got back to college and really when he got to Texas
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and they once they got up to speed and personnel, this this tendency reemerged. But how in the world if you are if
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you're Steve Sarkeesian and your pedigree is play calling specifically to come out of that Pete Carol tree of
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offensive coordinators and then what I'm talking about is red zone red zone play
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calling. I'm talking about something that's fundamental to your success. Your
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adjustment is going to be a lot more impactful on how you define yourself and your quality your your worth right as
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the executive and the leader of the program. So, I think it has to do with how close is it to your identity.
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T >> terrific answer. Another terrific answer and another depressing answer. Thank you
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very much, Stephen. Really appreciate your contribution. >> That's what I try. That's what I try to
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do. >> Okay. So, I'm gonna have to ask you a couple other questions. Um, one just
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while we're on Texas, I was in Columbus, my first time to Columbus, and I'm still
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kind of grappling with how to explain how to even think about the the fan experience up there. They were finely
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behaved. Of course, they won it. It was a day game, so it's kind of best case.
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And I think they're better than they were 20 years ago. But it was intense. And it was almost a professionalized
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college crowd in some way. And as soon as the ball was kicked, they went from being hospitable normal Midwesterns to
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being zombies. I mean, it was a really it was a really interesting experience. It was there was a professional quality
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to it. And I but I say one of the reason I'm asking you Stephen is because I
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haven't I've been to I've been to Kyle Field against&M against Texas. I've been
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to Texas OU many times. I've been in intense college games but I've not been
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to Tuscaloosa. I've not been to Baton Rouge. And so I don't know what those
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things are like. But Ohio I was in Michigan last year. Those Michigan guys were so laidback compared to Ohio State.
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They both came off national championships. It just feels like it's there's a level of intensity one step up
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from from what I might have expected. I'm curious whether that resonates with
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anything you know or have experience. >> Sure. I think I mean I I I think there's
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a way to put math to that to be honest. I think it's a combination of economics,
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sociology, and maybe a dash of religion to be honest because what you're describing, you just gave me a very
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weird cross-section of America, but let me try and do this really fast. Well, one, the average Michigan degree holder
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and ticket holder inside that building is probably going to come from a higher tax bracket, a higher level of
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education. What that usually means is um I learned this from being raised by law
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enforcement. Their propensity for causing an incident is going to be significantly lower because they have
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more to lose. Right? Okay. Ohio State is much more uh workmanlike blue collar, right? So you're going to have more
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sidewalk alumni as we call them. You might see that in Alabama. You might see that in Louisiana State. Also, you're
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attending games that are not traditional rivalries. Okay. So, what you're what you're
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looking what you're experiencing is almost more of a a curiosity, a meeting.
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There is a little bit of formality to it, right? There's a little bit of like
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uh yes, >> how do I describe it? It's like you're kind of putting on it's like meeting a
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meeting a significant other's parents for the first time to a degree until the
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game starts, right? Because you said everyone was very hospitable. I guarantee you they're not hospitable
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when they're playing Michigan or Penn State or M, you know, Michigan State or
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something like that. So, when you get to the South, I I would say that that's
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even more pronounced. Because southerners have a possess and I wouldn't include Texas in this.
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Southerners, southeasterners possess another economic disadvantage. I think their identity is polarized to the
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rest of the United States. And this one sport is wrapped up in in sort of their brand and who they are.
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>> They want to represent extremely well to outsiders until kickoff. Okay. But again, I think you can trace
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all this from from social migration to to demographics, the individual states. One of the most some of the most
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hospitable environments in college football are in the poorest places of the United States.
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>> So, you know, solve for that. >> Terrifically interesting. One of the
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benefits of being in the SEC now as a Texas fan is that there are all these road trips possible that that used to
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not really be. And one of the advantages of being a little bit older is that you
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take the game a little bit less seriously and you take the experience a little bit more seriously and um there's
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going to be some future trips that will involve more sociological observations. All right, Stephen. Uh week one,
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>> give us something that you think you did learn from week one and then give us
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something you think is gonna that people think they've learned right now that you
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think by the end of the season will be wrong. >> Some truth and some false truth out of
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week one. I thought the the archery action was ridiculous. Uh this this idea that he
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has been overhyped. I think if anything, I don't know if this has been said enough, but his camp was very aggressive
00:21:25
in their control as they were with Eli. I'm the same age as Eli and we were at
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Miss at the same time together. So I remember I you know we had we had the same social circles.
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The Manning family's always been extremely tactical in how they manage I say boys those those men as they go
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through that process. I think if anything it's just the media machine and we kind of build storylines but also
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Texas was ranked what number one number two depending on the poll. I mean he was
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going to be the recipient of some hype. I I think that's been received poorly
00:21:57
because he had a very mediocre game. I also think it's a very much a work in
00:22:01
progress. We probably should have paid a Patricia did a very nice job. I think also they have replaced very well using
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the portal and they probably were a little bit more f further along in schematic adaption for week one with
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that amount of new personnel than we give them credit for. Um, one trend I'm
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noticing and it it's borne out by the amount of high-profile programs starting
00:22:24
inexperienced quarterbacks. Like I could rattle them off, but you know, we just we talked about Ohio State, we talked
00:22:29
about Texas, we talked about Notre Dame. um you know all through the weekend really with the exception of LSU Clemson
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you didn't have a good you didn't have experienced quarterback versus experienced quarterback in the marquee
00:22:40
game. So one of the things I've noticed is we're seeing a resurgence in defensive line play when the front seven
00:22:46
looked lethal this weekend. Now some of that is just the way that it shakes out this year is that we have a sort of what
00:22:54
feels like a a perpetual pipeline of defensive talent but we saw much more aggressive command. I thought I thought
00:23:01
LSU and Clemson especially seemed it was a little bit of a throwback where we're
00:23:06
blitzing more. We're we're doing exotic pressure. We're we're moving guys
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around. And I think this might be a broad generalization after week one. I think the sport schematically has
00:23:17
adapted to the mobile quarterback to such a degree that they're now comfortable again flushing them. You
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know, that used to be that that was the death nail 15 and more like 12 years ago
00:23:28
with Manzel, right? with Cam Newton with what the offenses that were being called
00:23:33
against Sabin's Alabama. Remember middle linebackers were 260 pounds 12 years
00:23:39
ago. They were big boys, right? And then all of a sudden those those young agile
00:23:45
uh horizontally inclined, you know, uh running quarterbacks changed all that. I think we've adapted to where we're
00:23:51
almost full circle again. And now the assumption is that every elite quarterback within reason is going to
00:23:56
have mobility except maybe Carson Beck. But you are going to still be able to apply pressure if you can do it in
00:24:04
creative ways. I thought some of the blitz some of the blitzes I saw called this weekend sending pressure from weird
00:24:09
gaps, weird places, delays, spies. Uh I was really impressed by a lot of the defense I saw. Is that a trend? No. I
00:24:17
think we saw some young quarterbacks, but I do think the way we're calling defenses has finally adapted to where
00:24:22
they're comfortable blitzing mobile quarterback. >> Got it. Got it. Very interesting. All
00:24:27
right. If which of the three big winners um we I suppose we could even include Miami. Let's include Miami. Which of the
00:24:36
four big winners this weekend do you most believe in? >> Oh, talk. Let's let's set aside Florida
00:24:42
State. Call them three big winners. So LSU, Ohio State, and Miami. LSU, Ohio State, Miami. Who do you most believe in
00:24:49
coming out of? >> Probably Ohio State has the steadiest hand. I think LSU has the highest upside.
00:24:58
because um I another trend I've seen is that we we see the established program
00:25:04
higher than new DC disappoints for one year and then when the personnel actually adjust to what he
00:25:10
wants to call so Blake Baker at LSU I think you're going to see this with USC
00:25:14
in a couple weeks if you want something to watch for Deant and Lynn coming over from UCLA didn't register the way that
00:25:19
people thought it would last year but it's a personnel deficiency they're
00:25:23
actually not even with the portal they're not being they're not able to to
00:25:27
to overhaul and renovate as fast as people are assuming. Uh LSU under Blake Baker looked completely revitalized. The
00:25:34
the way to tell is Harold Perkins like he was utilized effectively and he and you really couldn't say that at all last
00:25:40
year. >> Stephen, is there any chance maybe a followup is there any chance the
00:25:45
national champion doesn't come out of the whatever the SEC or the Big 10? I mean, I know there's a chance, but I
00:25:51
mean it's not that you just said LSU. You're obviously happy about OS, Ohio
00:25:56
State, you know. I don't know. What do you think? >> Clemson and Miami. Cleans Miami are your
00:26:01
two. If if you're looking for a non- big two, it's Clemson and Miami. Um if if
00:26:05
I'm throwing dark horses out there, I would not want to go to Ames Iowa in the
00:26:09
first round. Like I think Iowa State looks really good. Really good. Now, I say that before they play Iowa, which
00:26:16
has always been sort of a trap for them, but um if I had to pick, it would be those two. and those two. It's because
00:26:22
Clemson finally woke up and joined the modern era. And you know, you want to talk about dogma and ideology getting in
00:26:28
the way of numbers. That's Davos Sweeney. Like talk about laughing at math. I mean,
00:26:35
that guy, my god, he he he looked fact in the face and and basically almost walked away from the game because he was
00:26:41
so resistant to adapt to the personnel changes and NIL and all that stuff. They have figured that out in a big way.
00:26:47
Miami. Well, >> no. Or Oregon. No. No. >> No. I mean, well, I love Oregon.
00:26:53
Oregon's I picked them to win the national title, but I mean, they're a Big 10 team, so
00:26:57
>> don't Yeah. Don't forget Don't forget they're a Big 10 team.
00:27:00
>> That happened. All right. Whatever. >> Steen. Yeah. Talking about Clemson one.
00:27:06
It still seems like they could fall off this year. They haven't proven it yet.
00:27:10
They came in high expectation, but uh unclear. And when you name those two teams, I start thinking about
00:27:16
quarterbacks. Beck versus Clutnick. It's just one week, but man, Beck looked a
00:27:21
lot stronger than Koopnik week one. And the quarterbacks can make such a big difference. It would be it would be
00:27:27
fascinating if Miami ends up actually that much stronger because not not least because of the quarterback differences.
00:27:33
>> Yeah. Just remember though, that's Mario Crystal Ball and you want to talk about
00:27:36
analytics and what the numbers tell you. >> Undoubtedly. Undoubtedly. All right,
00:27:40
last question. We got to get you out of here. Um, this is a bigger topic for another conversation, but I thought
00:27:44
about it all summer with the world changing around NIL. You are, one of the things you're well known for is your
00:27:50
Bagman article from way back in the day before it was legal to pay these kids. There were plenty of schools paying
00:27:56
these kids and you documented in high journalistic fashion. Um, what's your opinion? And we've only got a minute
00:28:01
here. It's a longer conversation, but where where do you think we settle there? There was this attempt this year
00:28:07
to tighten things down. Let's put a budget on things. that's not let's let's
00:28:12
make them meet certain criteria before we approve payments. And there are some schools that are betting that that's not
00:28:17
going to stick. What is the god-free opinion on what's equilibrium for the NCAA in the next few years? Is there
00:28:24
one? >> Yeah, water water rises to meetups level and I don't think we're there yet. Um,
00:28:28
but I do think that the there's going to be a lot of grandstanding from the political side of
00:28:34
this spectrum to try and act like they're going to intercede and create some sort of solution to protect the
00:28:40
sanctity of the sport. That's that's just as much nonsense and lip service
00:28:44
and pablum as it ever has been. But I also don't see a a fundamental shift in the powers, the halves and the have
00:28:52
nots or anything like that. Uh, the bottom line is that if you can fund one of these programs, you will. and the
00:28:58
large programs that succeeded before this change occurred, they're still going to be successful afterwards as
00:29:03
long as they fund it. I think there's a couple examples. We talked about Clemson. They resisted and then they
00:29:08
adjusted. Look at Texas Tech, right? Look at that. That's a money base that is responding to the change. You'll have
00:29:16
a couple outliers come in and upset the order, but this sport is really this sport punishes usurpers.
00:29:24
they they they they they tend to they tend to absorb trends into the into the power uh those with power and so I don't
00:29:33
think a lot is going to change. It's good that the kids are getting some money now.
00:29:38
>> Yeah, for sure. For sure. Okay, Stephen, hope to talk with you more about that
00:29:43
down the road. Thank you for making time for us. Enjoy this season. It does seem
00:29:47
to be shaping up to be one of the more open, interesting, unpredictable seasons. We'll see if it plays out that
00:29:53
way. Thanks guys. >> Absolutely. Stephen Godfrey, you can follow him at the Washington Post uh at
00:30:00
Yahoo at the his new podcast and um he's a co-host on the on the Yahoo Inquirer
00:30:07
podcast with Ross Dinger and Andy Staples. One of the fun things for some of us on that podcast is they're all
00:30:13
Southerners. So, you get this trio of southern accents in there talking college football. Welcome to the second
00:30:19
half of this week's show. This is Cade Massie hosting with my longtime co-host,
00:30:24
friends, colleagues, collaborators, Eric Bradlo and Audi Winer. Shane Jensen will
00:30:28
be back. In fact, we think he's going to be back soon. Uh we're rolling into the
00:30:32
second half of the show. Open topics, open lines, what we used to call open lines. We're recording on Tuesday
00:30:37
afternoon. Show will go up on Wednesday. Just off the phone, Stephen Godfrey talking a little college football. Guys,
00:30:44
I know it looks like a sleepy week. Week two, there's only one matchup of top 25
00:30:49
teams. That's Michigan going into Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Almost Oklahoma City, Norman outside of Oklahoma City.
00:30:57
Five and a half point underdogs. True freshman Bryce Underwood. Most lauded freshman in the game. Five and a half
00:31:04
point underdogs. That's a big one. Other than that, it's a little sleepy. I just
00:31:07
want to point out briefly as we transition from a conversation of Godfrey to the rest of the sports world.
00:31:12
There's good under the radar games. Baylor at SMU. That's an Old Southwest
00:31:16
Conference game. It's also like second tier Big 12 versus second tier. Possibly
00:31:20
first tier, possibly second tier Big 12 versus same. On the ACC, we've got Iowa,
00:31:26
Iowa State. Iowa State has made some noise already this year. Iowa always kind of a annoyance if not contender in
00:31:34
the Big 10. Rivalry game. KU at Missouri. Another rivalry game. KU looked terrific in their opening game.
00:31:43
Exciting quarterback. Going a little further down, what else do we have? UCLA at UNLV. Sleepy. If you're just up for
00:31:50
entertainment, UCLA was shellacked by Utah game one. Could they actually lose another to UNLV? So, there's lots of
00:31:57
below the radar stuff. We got >> How many of these teams K do you think might make it to the top 12 that you've
00:32:02
just mentioned? >> Baylor and SMU for sure. Illinois, I didn't mention it, going to Duke.
00:32:08
Illinois is in the mix from the Big 10. Iowa State's a serious contender in the
00:32:13
Big 12. KU is a contender in the Big 12. Missou's a long shot. KU Missou's a long
00:32:18
shot in SEC. Those are all and then Michigan know you are both, you know, off the top tier. They're probably not
00:32:26
going to make it, but either one of them could shoot up and make it. So, a whole
00:32:30
mix a whole mix of those guys. It's, you know, it's an appropriate question,
00:32:33
Eric. It's the benefit of the 12 team playoff. Keeps a lot of teams in contention. Okay, speaking of that, we
00:32:38
will come to baseball in a minute because that's exactly what's going on
00:32:41
in baseball. But before we do that, Eric is going out to Flushing Meadows in just
00:32:45
a few hours. He's going to take in some quarterfinals. Let's touch base about
00:32:49
the US Open. Both sides of the bracket are interesting, Eric. You're going to
00:32:52
see a couple of interesting matches tonight. So, give us an update on the on the on the US Open.
00:32:59
>> On the men's side, it's starting to look, you know, even even more
00:33:02
inevitable that it'll be center versus Alcarez. sinners on a very easy side of the draw.
00:33:08
I mean, he won today in straight sets. He has still hasn't lost a set. He's now
00:33:11
into the semi-finals. He's going to play the winner of Alex Demanor and Phillix O Aliasim.
00:33:20
I don't think either one of them is beating Sinner. So, I think uh is beating S. So, that's fortunate for him.
00:33:29
I'm sorry, beating Alcarez. Uh today's match, the women's side is where all the
00:33:33
excitement is. I mean, Jess Pagula just made it to the semi-finals, beat Kitechova earlier today, but you know, I
00:33:40
I didn't post it, but I could have posted it at our on our ex account at W Moneyball. All eight women, I think, had
00:33:47
a chance, and seven out of the eight remaining women have all won a major title.
00:33:52
>> Gez. Wow. >> Remarkable. Compared to the men's where it's two, it's just Ser and Alcarez.
00:33:58
Djokovic, sorry. Djokovic won a few. Um, but it's totally different. I I would
00:34:04
put I think most betterers would put 95% probability on either Ser or Alcarez. And right now you couldn't pick two
00:34:13
women where you would give more than I'm not sure you would do much more than
00:34:17
half. Maybe a little bit more than half for the top two, Sabalinka and Suantech.
00:34:21
I mean it's an interesting stat that came out. This is my dark horse. What the hell? I'll pick it now. I'm actually
00:34:26
going to see her tomorrow night. Um, I know this is meaningless and Audi's about to frown because it's a small
00:34:32
sample, but Naomi Osaka has never lost a major where she's made it to the quarterfinals. So, she's made it to the
00:34:40
quarterfinals. Sorry, AI. It's only four times in her career, but she's won all
00:34:45
four majors. She's undefeated in the quarter, semis, and finals of majors. And so, she absolutely destroyed Koko
00:34:52
Goff yesterday, which is not an easy thing to do. Uh she's playing Mukaba tomorrow night. Um and um I'm feeling
00:35:01
really good about Naomi Osaka's game and when she's on her game, you know, she's
00:35:05
got she's got four hardcore major titles and I don't see any reason why not. But
00:35:09
just the difference between the men's and the women's side. Not that the men's
00:35:12
isn't interesting, but like can Djokovic make it? I mean, let me I'll say the
00:35:17
following. I think I said this last week. If Djokovic wins this major at age 38, and I just want to repeat who he'd
00:35:23
have to beat to win this in my view, he's he's playing Taylor Fritz tonight,
00:35:28
the number one ranked American, number four in the world. If he beats him, he gets the honor of playing Carlos Alcarez
00:35:34
in the semi-finals. If he beats him, he gets the honor of playing Yannik Ser in the finals. If he were to beat Fritz,
00:35:41
Alcarez, and Sinner, not that there's any doubt he's the goat, but he's absolutely the goat. I
00:35:48
can't give him more than I mean you could put any percent you want you know I don't know 2% there no way he's not
00:35:55
beating all three and physically he won't you know just physical it's it's
00:35:58
just that he won't be he won't have enough left in the tank at age 38 to
00:36:04
face even if he makes it to center which I don't think he will I just don't think
00:36:08
I mean sinner's going to be fresh he's either way >> Eric remind us about Osaka um she she
00:36:14
she had she had some mental emotional struggles. I think some of it came on the heels of some stuff that happened at
00:36:22
the US Open, if I remember correctly, a number of years ago. So, my question my question to you is how recently has she
00:36:27
been back in form? I did I she just kind of slipped off the radar for a while and
00:36:31
I don't I don't remember when she reappeared. >> Well, she's just come back. She had a
00:36:34
child. >> Okay. >> Also, >> okay. >> And so, um she is ranked. She's 23rd.
00:36:40
She's seated 23rd. So, she's come back enough. Uh she had two good hardcore
00:36:45
hardcourt results this summer and made it to the finals of one semi-finals of another. So she's been playing much much
00:36:53
better. And um again you know it's this is always hard to say. Did Koko go have
00:36:58
a bad day or did uh you know Osaka have a really good day? But she just beat the
00:37:04
number three player in the world. I think the final was either 63 62 or 62 62 and it wasn't close. And if she can
00:37:12
do that to Koko Goff, who's had a very, very good year, she can do that to anybody. So, um, but yes, she's been
00:37:20
back playing well for the last two or three months. And, um, they asked her on, you know, the broadcaster after her
00:37:28
match against Koko Ga asked her, "How are you feeling?" And she says, "Well,
00:37:32
you know, I am undefeated in majors when I make it to the quarterfinals." So, she
00:37:35
obviously knew about that. And so, she said it with a smile, but she was saying it somewhat seriously. I don't think I
00:37:41
don't think she thinks she can't win it. She thinks she can win this. >> Mhm.
00:37:45
>> And by the way, this is what you have to put into perspective. If she wins this
00:37:50
match, the major, he's a year younger than Sabalanka, who's number one in the world, and
00:37:56
she'll have more majors than Sabalanka. So, you know, I understand Sabalanka's
00:38:00
great, is the current number one, but if Koko go wins this, she has five majors and she'll she's a year younger than
00:38:06
Sabalanka. Why can't we put her at some point if she wins this in that same discussion of kind of greatness?
00:38:13
>> Clarification. You just said Koko Goff. You meant Osaka. Um but >> Osaka I meant Osaka. Yeah. Osaka. If she
00:38:19
wins, she would have five majors, which is I think Sabalena has four. They both have only one on the hard courts. Also,
00:38:27
uh very similar, very similar accomplished careers and very similar in age. >> All right. Well, it's intriguing because
00:38:33
she has been away and this is her first big one back and she has been through some life changes. So, it's always
00:38:38
interesting to see whether this is the same or >> also have to say quickly, Venus is in
00:38:42
the final eight at doubles at age 45. So, uh her and Leila Fernandez are playing together. They had never played
00:38:49
before this tournament. They've beaten two seated teams already. They are playing the number one team in
00:38:54
the world uh coming up uh about 4:30 today. So, in about 15 minutes. Um she's
00:39:01
45 and she's in the she's in the quarterfinals of the doubles. So we'll
00:39:05
we'll see how it goes. >> All right. Good fun. Um and speaking of attending events, Odd's going to take in
00:39:11
some Yankees here. Maybe still a week out, but you've got a Yankees game in your size. Tigers Yankees, no less.
00:39:18
>> I got two games on the agenda. I'm going to Fenway on the 18th. I'm going to
00:39:23
Yankee Stadium on the 9th. >> Why does a Yankee fan attend Fenway other than he has family in the area?
00:39:28
What else is going on? I uh and that is uh yeah I'm uh yeah I'm going up to
00:39:32
Fenway to go to visit the Red Sox because to root against them and and see the van. We got two games going and uh
00:39:40
>> all right >> stadium next week. >> Let's talk about let's talk baseball
00:39:43
then. Um I have a confession to make an important confession to make. I watched a little bit of regular season baseball
00:39:50
for the first time I'm going to guess like three years because >> and I watched a little bit of uh college
00:39:56
football. >> Okay. You can see we're pulling each other a little bit. Well, that's
00:39:59
probably the same reason because there was college football where there usually isn't college football, which is Sunday
00:40:03
afternoon, and they snuck the Sunday night baseball game in there, which was our Phillies. And I I just want to note
00:40:08
again for those of us who haven't watched baseball in half a lifetime, this thing where they talk to players on
00:40:14
the field during live action is completely insane. >> I thought it was awesome. I saw I
00:40:21
remember seeing it before the last time I I I did this, but Harrison Bader, the Phillies center fielder, was the target
00:40:27
Sunday night and it was it's just crazy to get that kind of live take. And I do
00:40:32
want to ask one other question. You guys can help me with this. I would like to see an example of these cards that the
00:40:37
outfielders, probably all the fielders do, but especially the outfielders have for positioning by hitter. And so even
00:40:44
during the interview, he's like he's he's he's having to like conduct the
00:40:48
interview. who's pulling out the card to look where he's supposed to be on this
00:40:50
particular batter. I want to see one of those cards. I want to know what they say. Just some team, some card. It
00:40:56
doesn't have to actually be a real thing, so it doesn't have to violate anything. I'm just curious what those
00:41:00
little cards look like in this day of advanced positioning based on analytics. >> Well, I mean, I I've never seen one
00:41:08
myself, but I've talked to the people who made them. Um, and they know it's uh
00:41:13
it's it's basically positioning for for each uh player. Uh, but it also helps
00:41:18
them figure out how to orient themselves because there aren't necessarily markings, particularly on the in the
00:41:23
away in the on the away games. You have to figure out how to know where to stand. That means you have to find a way
00:41:30
to to line yourself up and that's not that easy. Um, when you're traveling, so
00:41:35
must have some information about that. When are we going to move to the 21st century? Why don't look, they already
00:41:40
talked to the pitchers and the things. Why don't they just have something in
00:41:43
their hat? Hot, hot, hot, cold, cold, cold. the old gang start moving left, right,
00:41:48
front, back, or why they just tell you Audi moved four steps. I'm just saying,
00:41:52
why do they have a paper card? I mean, I I just don't if we're going to use
00:41:55
technology, let's damn use technology. Come on. >> You're talking to the wrong guy. Ai Audi
00:42:00
wants them to not even be able to use a ballpoint pen. He wants those things written in pencil. Are you kidding me?
00:42:05
Or charcoal? What do we got? What? How can we take it down a notch? >> He believes in the shift.
00:42:11
>> I certainly believe in the shift. Shift's part of the game. Um the the
00:42:13
thing I'm not I mean I'm tend to be pretty conservative about the way the
00:42:17
game is played. I don't want to change the rules. I don't want the golden
00:42:20
atbat. That's the stupidest thing I've heard um that there's now being talked
00:42:24
about. >> Yeah, I heard something about that. That would be pretty darn stupid.
00:42:30
>> So you guys are all about the alltime stats and it this thing happened last
00:42:34
week. That's right. That that uh that um jumps out to me because how rare it is.
00:42:39
Schwarber had a four home run game. It turns out there have been three of them this year, which is insane because
00:42:45
there's only been 21 ever. >> Something that has only happened. How many perfect games? That was always a
00:42:50
gold standard for rarity. How many perfect games in MLB history have there been?
00:42:55
>> I think it's right around that mark. I don't know. Right around that number.
00:42:57
>> I thought it was around 30, but I I haven't looked. >> 24. 24.
00:43:01
>> Okay. So, this is about as rare, slightly more rare >> than a perfect game.
00:43:06
>> I mean, that's really something. Now, there is not there is some potentially
00:43:10
non-stationerity, more home runs these days. I mean, three this year. Why would it tick up? Why would it tick up? This
00:43:17
thing has happened going into the season. Happened 18 times ever, 25% less times than perfect games. I mean, come
00:43:24
on. >> Well, you could I mean, I I'll use Audi's theory a couple things. Um, one
00:43:29
is, and you said it, okay, guys are swinging for home runs more. That's one.
00:43:34
Uh, two, um, it could be that, you know, they're bringing in, you know, it's back
00:43:39
to the distribution of bad pitchers, like how many bad pitchers am I going to bring into this game? Guys aren't aren't
00:43:45
staying in for seven innings, eight innings. That's another possibility. Or third, it could just be, you know, we
00:43:51
have to think about this. Maybe three is not that rare under the, you know, let's
00:43:55
say that the the baseline rate is one every four to five years. Maybe sampling from a pluson with that rate maybe. I
00:44:04
mean three is not likely but I I would think this you know the standard deviation is what the square root of one
00:44:10
over the rate or something like that. So I maybe it's so three is rare but it's
00:44:14
not I I could compute if like right now how many >> rare things happen all the time. It's my
00:44:20
favorite favorite lines that I teach my students and that's because there's so
00:44:23
many rare things that can happen and eventually somebody's going to pack into
00:44:26
one of them. I remember earlier in the season um and actually at this point in the season we could do the same
00:44:30
calculation. Yankees center fielder Trent Gisham has never hit more than a tiny handful of home runs in a year and
00:44:36
he's at 28 and he was at 15. He was hitting it at a rate of about one in one in 15 one and
00:44:43
16 when his career rate is like one in 100. And and that was u a really unlikely event.
00:44:51
And you wonder is it at that point are you looking at a different hitter or are you looking at just an unlikely event
00:44:57
happening because they have so many opportunities? And that's the real rub. I mean with Schwarber it's just an
00:45:02
interesting thing, right? We know he's a great hitter. He's got four. Okay,
00:45:04
whatever. But with someone like Trent Gisham, and this is actually an interesting question. He's had genuinely
00:45:10
a great season, but would you predict he'd do it again? >> Yeah. >> And my answer is no. I would not predict
00:45:15
he would do it again. Yeah. I don't think at age whatever he is um approximately 30, you just you don't
00:45:23
just morph into something that's a genuine power hitter at center field and there's going to be this pressure on to
00:45:29
give him a $25 million contract which would be in my view a mistake based on the analytics, right? Based on the
00:45:35
numbers that this is um you have to shrink hard. Use the formula that Eric has in the back of his board right
00:45:41
there. You have to update that prior probability, but not that much because I I'm sticking with that prior. He's got
00:45:48
years. It's not like he's just years of of mediocrity and and uh I'm not going
00:45:54
to I'm not going to put too much emphasis on this this one season. Although I've been thankful to see him
00:46:00
hit and bring the Yankees, you know, they we've won they won every game but yesterday since we last recorded. That's
00:46:05
it. >> Well, the other Yeah. The other thing that I found uh this, you know, speaking
00:46:09
about baseball just quickly is the guy that snuck up on me, maybe you guys have been paying more attention, but you
00:46:15
know, this is why they play 162. When we look back at the stats, get the trajectory, and we look at Juan Sto's
00:46:20
year, all of a sudden, you know, there he is. You know, there he is. He's going
00:46:25
to be at 40 plus, 100 plus. His OPS is above zero is above 900 and he's got a
00:46:31
war right now of 5.3. So, you know, for a bad year, that's not a bad year. >> And a bad start. He ended up quite
00:46:40
excellent. Listen, it it's it breaks our heart because we know that he's he was
00:46:45
so important to the Yankees last year. Um, >> so he could hitter. He could have
00:46:50
stayed, went across town. Such a violation. >> Give us something from the last month of
00:46:55
the year, last month of the of the regular season that y'all are most interested in that doesn't have anything
00:47:01
to do with the Yankees. like give give each of you give us one storyline or question you have for the last month of
00:47:05
the regular season. >> Well, I'm looking at Kyle Riley. Um nothing new to the Yankees, but um is he
00:47:13
going to is how close is he going to flirt with 60? I mean, he's at 50 now. I
00:47:17
think there are 25 games remaining roughly approximately 10 home runs in a in a month would be an would be a a
00:47:24
excellent month. It's what he's averaged this season, but nevertheless, it is
00:47:28
excellent. Um, so really interested in seeing what he does there. And I'm actually interested to see whether he
00:47:32
gets the MVP not >> doing that at catcher is extraordinary. And this is something that I
00:47:37
analytically have been toying with for years. I feel like the the position adjustments that we make in war is is a
00:47:46
uh a big patchwork of guessing. And a lot of that guesswork is is something that we don't really know how to deal
00:47:52
with with catcher because you just don't get that kind of production out of catcher. You don't get half that
00:47:57
production out of catcher at the number two catcher. Let's I mean this is something to quickly look up. Who is the
00:48:03
second most productive catcher in the American League and you can throw out a major league and is that catcher half of
00:48:10
Cal Riley? Don't you look at War because that's an adjustment. But I'm looking at
00:48:12
the the batting productivity. >> I mean is I I doesn't I have to talk about the Yankees Dragon. Doesn't Ben
00:48:19
Rice play catcher for us? >> Yes, but just a little bit. >> Oh, okay. because he's his productivity
00:48:25
could be half of Raleigh's, >> right? Half and he's just the backup.
00:48:28
And talk I mean Ben Rice is actually interesting. Here we are talking about Yankee again. You did it.
00:48:32
>> I tried. I tried. >> Ben is interesting guy because uh I did some numbers analysis on Ben.
00:48:37
>> Ben Rice has the biggest, if not the biggest, maybe it's the second, but I
00:48:41
think it is the biggest gap between what what we call the XWOBA and the WOBA. So
00:48:46
the WOBA is a weighted on base percentage. Just just a single aggregate offensive number. You can put a plus
00:48:51
sign on it to adjust for your the park, but it's hardly that relevant. And XOBA
00:48:57
takes the velocity off the bat and the angle and it turns that into an estimated
00:49:04
quality. Wobba that you would have if the what they typically think of the average amount of luck.
00:49:11
>> So X stands for expected basically based on the fundamentals or the peripherals,
00:49:16
whatever you want to call it in the sport. based on the fundamentals, you'd expect a certain WOBA. And you're saying
00:49:21
his actual WOBA is outperforming his expected >> way. It's not even close. It's like he's
00:49:26
his his expected WOBA is something over nearly 400, which is league leading territory. And his actual WOBA is in the
00:49:33
low 300, which is average. And it is a complete gap. And turns out he did it again last year. Now, last year was only
00:49:40
2024 where he only had a handful. You know, he didn't have a complete season.
00:49:44
So, it was somewhat thought that he would break out. Um, and in some level he has broken out. He's he's had a
00:49:50
pretty good season, but not a great season. But his ex-wa suggests he's the third or fourth best hitter in the
00:49:56
league. >> Okay. Do you do you believe do you believe in X WOBA? >> Well, traditionally I have, but now I'm
00:50:02
coming to be suspicious. All right. All right, guys. Um, let us change to uh maybe the last sport of the
00:50:10
weekend. This is week one of the NFL. We have an NFL guest slated for next week.
00:50:16
Brian Burke, our longtime friend, ESPN analyst, innovator Brian Burke will be with us to talk about week one, but
00:50:22
between now and then, we have got a lot of games. We've got 16 games in the queue and they run all weekend long.
00:50:28
They run Thursday night >> or Thursday. I'll be I'll be there on Thursday.
00:50:32
>> So, we'll talk about that in a minute, but we've got games on Friday and
00:50:35
obviously we have games Sunday and Monday. So, it's quite the weekend. Um, we are kicking off with the Eagles.
00:50:42
Dallas in Philadelphia. Eric's talking about being there. The Cowboys are, I
00:50:46
think, six and a half point dogs coming in without >> eight and a half. >> Eight and a half now. I saw six and a
00:50:50
half today. >> Eight and a half. I'm just looking. I'm staring at it, right? Look according to
00:50:54
ESPN bet. I mean, there's all kinds of lines, but it's eight and a half.
00:50:57
>> If you cross seven, that's a that's a meaningful thing. So, that's
00:51:00
interesting. Um the Eagles also we can look at futures for the season and the Eagles are by far at the top NFC team.
00:51:08
They're right in the mix with the three strong strongest AFC teams. In fact,
00:51:12
it's kind of interesting that those that they're all kind of sitting at about the
00:51:16
same ex expectation, the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills, even though there's
00:51:21
three from the AFC and one from the NFC, that just speaks to how clearly those top three in the AFC dominate the the
00:51:27
probabilities coming out of that. Yeah. No, I agree. I think it's a very, very interesting season. I just have
00:51:34
this feeling the Chiefs, this isn't the Chiefs year. Like, you know, around the
00:51:41
edges, they seem, you know, you know, Travis Kelce is not clearly not the player he was. And Mahomes actually
00:51:49
didn't have that great a season last year. I'm not saying he's over the hill.
00:51:52
He's 29 or 30, but I'm just saying he didn't have, forget the Super Bowl, he
00:51:55
didn't have that great a season last year. their edge rushers are getting older. So, and I've got to think I mean
00:52:03
look, Baltimore and Buffalo are actually, in my view, my view more talented teams. Eventually, they're
00:52:09
going to beat Kansas City. And I think if one of them especially gets home field, that's the key. Don't have to go
00:52:16
to Arrowhead to win the AFC Championship game. So, if you're Buffalo and Baltimore, do not lose some random bad
00:52:24
game because you're going to lose some games to some good teams. Do not lose a
00:52:28
random bad game because that can cost your home field and that could be end up being the difference.
00:52:32
>> So I you know Eric I don't know that I have many stronger sports wishes this
00:52:38
year this calendar year than that Casey that either Buffalo or Baltimore makes just give me either one like not Kansas
00:52:45
City by God. I'd rather it not be the Bengals but I'll take them over the
00:52:49
frigin Chiefs. But really >> I haven't even looked at schedule they're playing each other this week.
00:52:53
>> Yeah they open that way Sunday night. Absolutely. No, I didn't see that. I'm
00:52:57
just looking at I I've been so caught up on tennis and then I've been caught up
00:53:01
on the Eagles game. I'm looking at the NFL schedule now. This is an incredible
00:53:06
slate of games. >> It's a it's a it's a good week one and it top and you know even Monday night
00:53:10
game is is going to be a good one. Minnesota, Chicago, but that Sunday night game, I mean we the last time we
00:53:15
saw Baltimore and Buffalo, last time we saw >> Baltimore anyway, they were in Buffalo
00:53:19
for that division game, divisional playoff game against against Buffalo. And so this how they ended their season.
00:53:26
Now they're starting their season that way. Those are two with the highest expectations. Chargers.
00:53:30
>> Well, this is what I was gonna say. You're talking about the Chiefs, you
00:53:33
know, the the three-way race for home field in the AFC, if you want to call it three three-way race. It begins this
00:53:40
weekend with those two, one of those teams that we like is going to get knocked off. And then KC has a chance to
00:53:46
get knocked off by the Chargers. They're two and a half point favorites. It's a
00:53:49
Friday night game. Fun week one thing. Friday night NFL game. KCA in LA against the Chargers only.
00:53:56
>> Oh, it's in Sa Paulo. It's another It's another Sa Paulo game.
00:53:59
>> Oh, I thought it was in Los Angeles. Oh, that's interesting. >> No, no, no. It's counted as a home game
00:54:03
for the Rams, but it's in Sa Paulo. >> Not Rams. You mean Chargers? >> Chargers. Chargers. Sorry. The other
00:54:09
Yeah. The Rams have an interesting game at home against the Texans, by the way. That's another in see the interesting
00:54:14
thing about that is as you >> if you beat let's say the Chargers beat the Chiefs. Okay.
00:54:21
>> They're in some sense they're two games up on the Chiefs >> because
00:54:24
>> the season just started and they're two up because they have they have the
00:54:27
tiebreaker and they and they're one and0. So it's meaningful. It's a meaning
00:54:32
I would say the same thing about Baltimore Buffalo. Assuming they don't play again this year, which they're not
00:54:37
in the same division. They're not going to play again this year. Whoever wins
00:54:40
that game essentially has almost a twoame lead on the other team for home field. This is worth more than one game.
00:54:47
This is worth more than one game. Come on. >> That that's that's interesting. Um well,
00:54:52
the I meant to reach out to our friend uh Eric Jeff Argus, our our buddy up in Buffalo. The you know, you know, I have
00:55:00
I thought about it in the offseason. Jeff's a a buddy of ours in Buffalo, big
00:55:03
Bills fan, and in some way is responsible for the show coming together because you and I know each other
00:55:09
>> first. First first. That's true. >> Because of Jeff. Um so it's hard not to
00:55:13
pull for those Bills. All those guys give anything for them to get back to the Super Bowl except I would take the
00:55:18
Ravens. >> Yeah, you're a Ravens guy. >> Well, top two teams. I'll take either
00:55:22
one of them. Okay. The other the other big game I think over the weekend is that um Detroit Green Bay game which is
00:55:30
Sunday afternoon an afternoon game four o'clock game 425 game Detroit going into
00:55:34
Green Bay. >> They are you know um coming off a couple of great seasons but they are the
00:55:39
underdogs on the road to Green Bay. Is Parson's I haven't read is Parson's
00:55:43
going to be fit enough to play his first game on week one. >> He there he's planning on playing.
00:55:48
Whether they have to inject him or not is a separate issue in the back. He's
00:55:51
got a back issue, but yeah, they say he's playing. >> Okay, so we could talk a lot about that
00:55:55
trade because we have opinions about trades and they gave up a ton of draft capital, which we know is valuable. They
00:56:01
need to enjoy him in the immediate future because they traded away some of the outy years. And so this is a big
00:56:08
season for the Packers. That's for damn sure. >> No, I think I think you've brought it
00:56:11
up. I think um Kansas City and the Chargers is a well above average game. I think you've pointed out uh Detroit,
00:56:20
Green Bay, Houston and the uh Rams, Baltimore, Buffalo, Minnesota, Chicago. They're not, you know, and the good news
00:56:28
is um because of the way it's set up, there's two of them at 4:00, but I can
00:56:32
watch all the rest of them. Like I can watch all of them. >> Yeah. Well, they gave us they've given
00:56:37
us a bunch of divisional stuff, too, which is fun. To start us off right out of the box with a bunch of these
00:56:42
divisional rivalries is is one of the reasons that it's such a fun weekend. What about big picture, Eric? When you
00:56:48
look at futures for the playoffs or the Super Bowl, does anything jump out to you? We can look at odds, you just pick
00:56:55
them off at ESPN or whatever. >> All right. I'm not just saying this, you know, the Bucks at 30 to1.
00:57:04
I I think they're better than 30 to1. I mean, I've heard a lot of people Look,
00:57:09
do you know what team Kate has won their division? Four straight years. >> Is that right? I didn't know that.
00:57:14
Really? I mean, people Yeah, people don't give them I mean, by the way, you remember there was the that 20-year
00:57:20
stretch where nobody repeated in the NFC South. >> No, I don't pay I don't pay much
00:57:24
attention to the NFC South to be honest. >> Well, whatever. The Bucks have won their
00:57:28
division four straight years. If they win, obviously this that's five straight
00:57:32
years. They're in a weak division. >> So already that puts you, if they win
00:57:36
the division, that already puts you in the top four seeds. You at least have one home playoff game. You're obviously
00:57:40
probably the favorite in that game. All right. So now you're in the conference
00:57:44
semifinals. So I just think the Bucks being 30 to1. And look, Baker Mayfield, that man can throw the football and and
00:57:53
No, no. And I'm saying if Godwin's healthy, which is an if, and Mike Evans
00:57:59
still healthy and they drafted a a receiver in the first round and their running back, Bucky Irving, you know,
00:58:05
they can score the football now whether they'll play defense good enough. So
00:58:08
that's the thing. I'm not just saying that as a Bucks fan. The Bucks sitting
00:58:11
there at 30 to1. >> Well, what I like what I most like about it is that the NFC if you if if the if
00:58:18
you think Philly is gonna struggle at all, if you don't think they're just
00:58:21
going to plow through the NFC, then the NFC is pretty open. Like taking a long shot in the AFC doesn't make a lot of
00:58:26
sense because you've got three of the big ones to fall down. All three of them
00:58:29
have to fall down. For the NFC, I mean, any number of teams. Do you think Washington's gonna do it again? Probably
00:58:36
not. What about the Vikings? Do you think their new quarterback's gonna be able to do it? You know, maybe um the
00:58:42
Niners are in there, the Rams are in there, the Packs is in there, the Lion the Lions are probably best. The Lions
00:58:48
the Lions could have made the Super Bowl easily last year. >> I look I the reason I'm willing to say
00:58:53
the Rams also is remember I was at that game. The Rams I I'll make to my dying
00:58:59
day. I'll say the Rams were the better team at Eagles. Like that snow game. The
00:59:04
Rams looked like they were the better team. I'll tell you what it definitely
00:59:07
was true. Matthew Stafford was better that day. >> It was one of the best It was one of the
00:59:11
best snow performances by a quarterback I've ever seen. It was shockingly good
00:59:16
in the snow. Shockingly good. >> Shockingly good. So, I'm saying why can't the Rams go to the Super Bowl? Of
00:59:21
course they can. Sure they can. >> All right. Well, the mystery starts unraveling or unfolding or being
00:59:27
revealed to some extent in just two short days. So, we'll kick the season off on Thursday. We'll talk about it
00:59:33
next time around. Why don't we wrap for there for the whole crew? Eric Bradler
00:59:39
who's been in here through the whole thing. Audi Winer all but the last 10 minutes. Shane Jensen and Absentia, Dion
00:59:45
Simpkins, the boss man, keeping us on track all these years. Deep Patel, the new boss lady in town. And for you guys,
00:59:52
the listeners, thanks for listening. Oh, Marissa Raina. Marissa Raina, our producer as well. Many thanks to her.
00:59:57
For you guys, the listeners, thanks for being with us. Come back and join us next time. Between now and then, enjoy
01:00:02
your sports. [Music]