00:00:01
in the new book the industries of the
00:00:03
future author Alec Ross takes a deep
00:00:05
dive into the specific fields that will
00:00:07
shape our economic future including
00:00:09
robotics and the codification of just
00:00:11
about everything the book is based in
00:00:13
part on his four years serving as senior
00:00:15
advisor for innovation to Secretary of
00:00:17
State Hillary Clinton Alec thanks for
00:00:19
being here thanks for having me now when
00:00:21
you were coming up with these industries
00:00:22
to highlight in the book was it
00:00:24
immediately obvious what would make
00:00:25
sense to put in there or how was your
00:00:28
process of figuring out either what ones
00:00:30
to include or just how to kind of mush
00:00:31
together the things that you were seeing
00:00:33
in to clear industries it was actually
00:00:36
it was a long process actually my
00:00:39
assistant actually totaled up my travel
00:00:40
and apparently over the last handful of
00:00:43
years I've traveled the equivalent of
00:00:44
two round trips to the moon with a side
00:00:46
trip to New Zealand and so the process
00:00:49
of identifying the you know let's call
00:00:52
them eight to ten specific industries
00:00:54
that I profile in the industries of the
00:00:56
future really is a byproduct of that
00:00:59
travel 25 circumference --is of the
00:01:01
globe so you know some of the ideas that
00:01:03
I had going in didn't stick and then
00:01:06
there were things like the
00:01:07
commercialization of genomics which I
00:01:10
would not have necessarily intuited will
00:01:13
be it would be a trillion dollar
00:01:14
industry in the future but by virtue of
00:01:16
my research it emerged now one of the
00:01:19
things I thought is really fascinating
00:01:20
about the book is you kind of see two
00:01:22
different things at work here you see
00:01:23
economies emerging economies where
00:01:25
they're kind of developing industries
00:01:27
from the ground up that are these
00:01:28
cutting into cutting edge industries and
00:01:30
then you also see more developed
00:01:32
economies where they had had their
00:01:33
economies were basically shaped on the
00:01:35
innovations of the past the innovations
00:01:37
of decades ago and they're having to
00:01:39
retool and what were the lessons you
00:01:41
took from each of those I mean do you
00:01:42
see is the process somehow different is
00:01:44
it easier for one versus the other to
00:01:46
focus on these things I think that the
00:01:48
process of imagination that becomes
00:01:52
innovation which becomes
00:01:54
commercialization is fairly similar
00:01:58
country to country but the problem is is
00:02:01
that different countries have the
00:02:03
wherewithal have the access to capital
00:02:06
have the employee base to take something
00:02:09
from imagination to reality and others
00:02:11
don't so in the most highly developed
00:02:14
country
00:02:15
you do have baked in a set of advantages
00:02:18
that don't exist in frontier markets or
00:02:20
in developing economies so more often
00:02:22
than not I think it's in the developed
00:02:24
in the developed economies it's in
00:02:27
places like Silicon Valley where they're
00:02:29
going to create entirely new platforms
00:02:31
that billions of people will eventually
00:02:34
use whereas in developing economies at
00:02:37
least to this point and it could change
00:02:39
in developing economies it's been the
00:02:41
case that they what I see is building a
00:02:44
tool building an application developing
00:02:47
something that's specific that solves a
00:02:48
very specific problem as opposed to
00:02:51
building platforms that serve hundreds
00:02:53
of millions of people so for those
00:02:55
economies it's more about if they take
00:02:56
can they take the tool and really
00:02:58
develop an industry around that or an
00:03:00
industry around that type of innovation
00:03:01
that's exactly right so when I think
00:03:03
about mobile payments and how mobile
00:03:05
payments emerged in Kenya now the reason
00:03:07
why mobile payments emerged in Kenya was
00:03:09
in part because there weren't mainstream
00:03:11
banks on Main Street in Nairobi and so
00:03:15
it was innovation born out of scarcity
00:03:17
but the interesting thing there is
00:03:19
because it's so good and because it
00:03:23
appeals to consumers around the world
00:03:25
it's something that can scale from
00:03:27
developing economies into developed
00:03:30
economies so there are examples of that
00:03:32
now one of the things I thought was
00:03:34
interesting though is when you look at
00:03:35
developed economies so for example you
00:03:38
talked a little bit in the book about
00:03:39
your background growing up in West
00:03:40
Virginia and about how what happened to
00:03:42
the community when Cole kind of became
00:03:44
not a dominant Istra industry anymore
00:03:46
when it moved overseas to south to other
00:03:48
places and I wondered with for developed
00:03:50
economies like and I actually lived in a
00:03:52
place very similar to that in Indiana
00:03:53
which had been an industrial economy and
00:03:55
one of the things that I thought is
00:03:57
interesting is is that the government
00:03:59
tried to kind of pivot to something to
00:04:01
something new to what was coming next
00:04:03
but you have kind of this pushback from
00:04:05
the population that you know they want
00:04:06
the jobs back that were there before
00:04:08
they want it to be the way it was before
00:04:10
because that was very sustainable it
00:04:11
made a good life for you know
00:04:13
generations of people so with developed
00:04:15
economies how do you kind of get beyond
00:04:18
how did you see governments or people
00:04:20
trying to get beyond that you know this
00:04:22
works for us this works for us for years
00:04:24
we want this back we don't want
00:04:25
something new we want the old because
00:04:27
the old
00:04:28
good yeah I mean luck I think one of the
00:04:30
lessons of the past 40 years of
00:04:32
globalization is that you can't click
00:04:34
your heels together and say there's no
00:04:36
time like 1965 it just doesn't work and
00:04:41
it's it's regressive and you know those
00:04:44
kinds of that kind of regressive
00:04:46
worldview when it becomes a regressive
00:04:49
set of policies tends to lead to nowhere
00:04:53
in West Virginia for example I think you
00:04:55
know one of the reasons why I wrote the
00:04:57
industries of the future was because was
00:04:58
as a response to how poorly the state of
00:05:02
West Virginia did respond to
00:05:05
globalization and technology driven
00:05:08
innovation and you know sort of clung on
00:05:11
to coal even as coal became automated
00:05:14
and so look I think that you've got this
00:05:18
is where leadership is is necessary
00:05:20
you know people cannot curl into the
00:05:23
fetal position and and you know wish for
00:05:25
the prosperity of yesterday you know
00:05:27
it's not the strongest of the species
00:05:29
that survives or the most intelligent
00:05:31
but those most adaptable to change and
00:05:33
that's as true and you know the highest
00:05:36
in the in the most highly developed
00:05:40
Western economies as it is anywhere now
00:05:42
you talked a little bit about how that
00:05:44
people always ask you for example like
00:05:45
how do I become Silicon Valley how does
00:05:47
my community become Silicon Valley and
00:05:49
your answer is they can't that you can't
00:05:51
be Silicon Valley because Silicon Valley
00:05:53
had a special set of things that made it
00:05:55
that way but what you can do is sort of
00:05:57
become take the deep knowledge in your
00:05:59
own it in your own community and
00:06:00
leverage that now how would you say I
00:06:03
mean if you have an accountant so for
00:06:05
example if you have a can you like
00:06:06
Detroit where they're deep knowledge is
00:06:07
and automobiles and in some sense some
00:06:10
of those that that's become antiquated
00:06:12
that's become developments of the past
00:06:14
and some of the things that they're
00:06:15
doing how would you how do you pivot an
00:06:17
industry like that that's very much
00:06:18
based on the innovations of yesterday
00:06:20
and kind of focus them on some of these
00:06:22
industries that you talked about in the
00:06:24
book I mean what do you see economies do
00:06:26
you see economies that are doing that
00:06:27
well well first you know let's go right
00:06:29
back to Detroit so the skill sets that
00:06:32
are domiciled inside Detroit lend
00:06:35
themselves well to in my opinion the
00:06:38
next generation of automobiles which
00:06:40
will be increasingly Internet
00:06:42
connected which will be driverless you
00:06:44
know they ought to assert their own
00:06:47
domain expertise in automotive so that
00:06:50
they can be a part of that economy
00:06:51
tomorrow secondly you know against
00:06:53
sticking to Detroit they're gonna be
00:06:55
emerging fields like drones and it's
00:06:58
Marc and Marc Andreessen from the
00:07:00
venture capital firm andreessen horowitz
00:07:02
suggested that Detroit become drone
00:07:04
Valley so if you do think if you take
00:07:06
the industry out of it you know the car
00:07:09
industry but think about what the skills
00:07:11
were that made Detroit what it was for
00:07:14
as long as it was that then can lend
00:07:17
itself to a set of you know future
00:07:20
oriented industries you know when I
00:07:22
think about the Rust Belt more broadly I
00:07:24
think about deep domain expertise in
00:07:26
manufacturing well there are you know
00:07:29
supply chains are growing more
00:07:31
sophisticated advanced manufacturing is
00:07:34
growing more sophisticated there is the
00:07:35
emergence of 3d printing so I actually
00:07:38
think that the domain expertise in
00:07:41
manufacturing and the Rust Belt could be
00:07:44
turned to its advantage so long as it's
00:07:46
oriented towards the industries of the
00:07:47
future now do you see that type of deep
00:07:50
thinking going on in some of these
00:07:52
economies like in the US and Europe I
00:07:53
mean are are there people out there that
00:07:55
are thinking about this that way is
00:07:57
there isn't there enough thought being
00:07:59
put into that too that I actually think
00:08:01
there is you know I actually you know
00:08:03
look most people who write books about
00:08:05
the future are either wildly utopian or
00:08:07
wildly dystopian it's either oh we're
00:08:09
gonna live 150 years happy healthy
00:08:11
wealthy wise in life for nothing or it's
00:08:13
written you know what sort of fists
00:08:15
clenched in eyes clothes you know very
00:08:17
angry you know I think the life is much
00:08:20
more up the middle and when I think
00:08:22
about you know your question here about
00:08:24
you know our communities preparing
00:08:26
themselves to pivot and leverage their
00:08:28
domain expertise
00:08:29
I actually think yes you know where I
00:08:32
live now in Baltimore there's this very
00:08:34
strong focus on the commercialization of
00:08:37
genomics the life sciences based on you
00:08:41
know the tremendous research
00:08:42
institutions that are there it's close
00:08:44
to the NSA and the CIA in the Defense
00:08:49
Department so there's a big focus on
00:08:51
cybersecurity
00:08:52
I actually do think that communities
00:08:54
have grown smarter and smarter about
00:08:57
mapping their assets and figuring out
00:09:00
how to how to build industries around
00:09:02
those assets now as these sectors rise I
00:09:05
mean as robots and codification and all
00:09:07
of these other industries that you
00:09:08
identify in the book become more
00:09:10
prominent how do you feel like that's
00:09:12
going to kind of change the world
00:09:14
balance of power I mean how does that
00:09:16
change kind of the global economy and
00:09:18
who's who's got power who doesn't that's
00:09:21
a tremendous question you know I would
00:09:23
first of all I'd put it into into a
00:09:25
certain kind of binary I mean so the
00:09:27
first is within the architecture of the
00:09:29
196 sovereign nation-states
00:09:31
and the second is within those
00:09:34
nation-states you know what kinds of
00:09:37
individuals do well and what kinds of
00:09:39
individuals do poorly so you can live in
00:09:41
a country that is prospering but you can
00:09:43
be doing very well or you could be doing
00:09:45
very poorly or you could be living it
00:09:47
live in a country that's foundering and
00:09:49
you might be able to be doing pretty
00:09:51
well so first I think that you know the
00:09:53
principle political and economic binary
00:09:55
of the 20th century was right versus
00:09:57
left in the 21st century I think it's
00:09:59
open versus closed defining open as
00:10:02
upward economic mobility not confined to
00:10:06
elites social and cultural norms and
00:10:11
social cultural and religious norms not
00:10:13
set from a central authority and sort of
00:10:16
broadly rights respecting for women
00:10:18
minorities of all type and what-have-you
00:10:20
and I believe that the centers of
00:10:22
innovation and the wealth creation and
00:10:25
job creation that comes from that will
00:10:27
be in the more open societies for the
00:10:29
industries of the future I see you know
00:10:32
people conglomerating around you know
00:10:36
what will probably be 10 to 15 major
00:10:38
centers over the next 15 years we
00:10:41
already see this in development now and
00:10:43
so I think that the more open societies
00:10:45
will be those that compete and succeed
00:10:46
most effectively in terms of the
00:10:49
individuals looking at this on an
00:10:51
individual level I think you know look
00:10:54
it's going to be a terrible time to be
00:10:56
mediocre at your job if you're in a high
00:10:59
cost labor market you know it's it's an
00:11:02
absolutely brutal truth when people in
00:11:04
Baltimore competing against people in
00:11:06
bank
00:11:07
not just based on cost of labour but
00:11:09
also quality of labour which is now
00:11:11
increasingly going to be the case I
00:11:13
think that you know being born middle
00:11:16
class or working class in the United
00:11:19
States or Western Europe isn't going to
00:11:22
mean your starting life on second base
00:11:23
to the degree that it did in the past
00:11:26
and so I do think that you you've got to
00:11:30
be a committed lifelong learner you've
00:11:33
got to be adaptable otherwise you're
00:11:35
gonna be left behind even if you're even
00:11:37
if your country is producing substantial
00:11:39
growth and you put that out in the last
00:11:40
chapter of the book you talk a little
00:11:42
bit about kind of advice if you're a
00:11:44
parent with children these days and you
00:11:46
have three correct
00:11:47
I do and so what what to do like if you
00:11:49
have kids who are maybe even if they're
00:11:51
decades away from college or a few years
00:11:53
away like what do you suggest how do you
00:11:55
kind of guide them what would how can
00:11:57
they adjust to this new type of economy
00:11:59
and you have some interesting advice and
00:12:01
part of its with languages and I think
00:12:03
the other interesting part was just the
00:12:04
idea that it's more important than ever
00:12:06
to have stamps on your passport which is
00:12:08
something I never experienced as a kid
00:12:09
and something I definitely got me
00:12:12
thinking well this is something I need
00:12:13
to make a point of hat making sure my
00:12:15
daughter does you know it's really
00:12:16
interesting there was a World Economic
00:12:18
Forum study that said that children
00:12:21
entering preschool today
00:12:23
sixty-five percent of the job types that
00:12:25
exist when they graduate from college
00:12:27
don't exist today so what that means is
00:12:30
that we aren't preparing our kids for
00:12:32
specific jobs rather what we have to do
00:12:35
is develop a set of skills they can then
00:12:39
map into job types that we don't even
00:12:41
know what they are right now and so
00:12:43
there are you know in the last chapter
00:12:45
the industries of the future the last
00:12:46
chapter is called the most important job
00:12:48
you'll ever have the most important job
00:12:50
you'll ever have being a parent and so
00:12:52
without pretending to be a parenting
00:12:54
guru myself what I did do is I
00:12:56
interviewed the scores of people who've
00:12:57
been very successful in business and
00:12:59
said alright you know what if skills and
00:13:01
attributes that today's kids need in
00:13:03
tomorrow's economy and there are a
00:13:05
handful of lessons in there from foreign
00:13:07
language learning to interdisciplinary
00:13:09
learning to you know making sure that
00:13:11
kids are as multicultural affluent as
00:13:16
possible because they're going to be
00:13:17
working in a world where the frontier
00:13:19
economies are becoming
00:13:20
developing economies in the developing
00:13:22
common economies are becoming developed
00:13:24
economies so it's gonna be a little bit
00:13:26
of a tricky world
00:13:27
I think for kids my age they're 13 11
00:13:30
and 9 when they enter the workforce and
00:13:32
it's never too early to begin to prepare
00:13:34
them for that and now in addition when
00:13:36
you talk about languages you also talked
00:13:37
a lot about preparing them languages
00:13:40
including code so including learning
00:13:42
HTML learning Python learning some sort
00:13:44
of technological language in addition to
00:13:46
a foreign language ya know I think you
00:13:48
know I'm I'm all in favor of language
00:13:50
learning foreign languages and computer
00:13:52
languages and you know even if the
00:13:53
computer language is that kids are
00:13:55
learning are not necessarily those that
00:13:57
will be used in 15 years it still
00:14:00
teaches you a way of thinking it teaches
00:14:02
you a way of problem-solving and an
00:14:04
above-average coder it's got a couple
00:14:07
decades of worth of employment in front
00:14:09
of them now if you are so looking at
00:14:12
people like our age or people our
00:14:15
companies I mean if you're somebody who
00:14:16
has maybe had a company that's built on
00:14:20
or your career is built on one of maybe
00:14:22
the old innovations of the past how do
00:14:25
you prepare for the future how can you
00:14:26
take this book and really use it as
00:14:28
almost like news you can use I mean what
00:14:30
would your advice be to hold our folk
00:14:33
gosh you know look I think I think that
00:14:37
anybody from you know from middle
00:14:39
schoolers to people toward the end of
00:14:41
their professional careers hopefully can
00:14:43
draw something from the book the
00:14:45
industries of the future but you know
00:14:47
what one of the things that I would
00:14:49
simply say is you know I'm such an
00:14:51
evangelist for a lifelong learning so
00:14:53
the idea that you know that somehow
00:14:55
stops in your 40s or 50s I you know I I
00:14:58
simply don't buy or buy into so I did I
00:15:01
do think that people who are trying to
00:15:03
figure out how to adopt and adapt to a
00:15:06
faster changing world you know I say the
00:15:10
21st century is a terrible time to be a
00:15:11
control freak so one of the key things
00:15:14
is to give up on the kind of control
00:15:18
that you're most comfortable with and
00:15:21
you know begin to understand that a lot
00:15:23
of the ground shifting under your feet
00:15:25
is going to shift whether you like it or
00:15:27
not and to understand and accept that
00:15:30
we're we're gonna be living in a world
00:15:31
of ever faster pace change
00:15:34
a lacrosse thanks so much for being with
00:15:35
us thanks for having me
00:15:55
you
