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The US labor market has an
interesting mix going on right now. You have hiring leveling
off and not adding to what we've
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seen at the same levels in
recent years, but we aren't seeing a lot of people being
laid off either. It does seem
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like we are also seeing a bit of
rightsizing, to a degree, for a variety of reasons. So what does
this tell us about the state of
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the labor market right now?
Peter Cappelli is a Professor of Management and Director of the
Center for Human Resources at
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the Wharton School. Peter, great
to catch up with you again. Thanks for your time.
- Thank you, Dan.
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How are you reading the labor market right now and all
that we are seeing go on?
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You know, it really depends who
you're talking to. I've been talking to our Ph— to our MBA
students, anyway. And you know,
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from their perspective, it
doesn't look great. And I think the reason why, if you look
at the job openings from the BLS
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data, they're really down for
some segments of the economy, and mainly it's down for white
collar jobs, especially finance-
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related jobs. It's fallen by
about half since last year. If you're in construction, openings
are actually up. So, you know,
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it does seem to depend where you
are, quite a bit. I think, you know, there is just a ton of
uncertainty about how things are
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going. And businesses hate
uncertainty. So you know, they think they're kind of sitting on
the sidelines.
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Which I guess then ties into
the fact that we aren't seeing more layoffs or more job cuts,
is that they're not certain
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we're going to be bad as an
economy, but they're not certain we're going to be great either,
and you still want to have some
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level of status quo. Yeah, no, I think that's right.
There's also something quirky
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about the labor market that is
important to understand. It's not new. But now, the current
decades or so, when a vacancy
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occurs, it's much more likely
that it's filled by somebody who already has a job someplace
else. So that creates what
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researchers call vacancy chain
problems. So you know, if Dan quits and Peter then takes Dan's
job, it creates another vacancy
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over here, and then somebody
takes that person's job, and then, bang, bang, bang, bang,
bang, you could have a cascade
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of vacancies and a cascade of
job openings, right? - Right. So when employers start hiring and
creating a new position, it
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creates, in the data, several
positions over time, right? Because people are moving from
one to the other, it's kind of
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what we used to call frictional
unemployment in those days. And then when they stop hiring, then
not only is there not their
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initial job, but there's not
that whole chain of vacancies that happen afterwards. So as
soon as hiring and creating new
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positions stops, then it looks
like things have really fallen off a cliff compared to the way
they were before, right?
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And does that also mean that
we're also not seeing the level of expansion within companies
that maybe we're used to seeing?
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Companies adding— instead of
having 10 people in a— in a segment and maybe raising that
to 20 because business is good,
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they're not even doing that
right now. Right. And that is the big
puzzle, right?
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Because the economy seems to be doing pretty well in the
fourth quarter. Way better than
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expected, 4% plus growth rate.
And you would think you'd be hiring in that context. And I
think this is the quirky thing.
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It doesn't fit usual modeling
very well. And that is that business leaders, particularly
in corporations, have in the
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back of their heads a kind of
idea about what they should be doing with respect to hiring.
And that is driven heavily by
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investors who really don't like
hiring. They really don't like employment costs. They see them
as fixed costs, even though you
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can lay people off and they're
actually not fixed. So I think there has been a kind of
resetting of their expectations,
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driven by investors who, for
some reason— maybe it started in tech. Think that companies are
overstaffed all over the place.
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- Right. - And when they start
cutting jobs in tech, then everybody else in tech looks
around and says— the boards say,
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why aren't we cutting? And then
they cut, and then everybody else gets the same pressure. The
cuts in white collar jobs are
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easier to make because you don't
see the consequences immediately. If you cut a
production worker and a
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frontline worker, you know, you
don't have people to staff the restaurant. You don't have
people to move stuff in the
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warehouse. You cut a white
collar job, people, at least for a little while, try to cover the
work, right? - Yeah.
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So you can imagine that it's not hurting you as much
when you cut white collar jobs. But eventually it
turns around and bites you too.
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How do you view the
question of the impact of AI moving forward? And I'll ask you
that from a couple perspectives,
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because recently we saw a
company like Dow Chemical cut 4500 jobs. And they said it—
directly said it was tied to AI
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adjustments. Then you have a
company like Amazon that, you know, has been cutting over the
last couple of years, just
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announced 16,000. Didn't use the
same phraseology, but you got the sense that some of it was
probably tied to that as well.
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Right. So I think— I didn't make up this
phrase, but it is attributed to me now, and it's AI washing. And
that means that they're claiming
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it's AI even when it's not AI.
And the reason is they're under enormous pressure, from investors
in particular, to show that
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they're using AI, because the
hope is AI will allow you to cut jobs. Cut headcount. Immediately
jumps your valuations. You look
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like a much more valuable
company when that— when you can cut headcount. So they felt the
pressure to claim they were
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doing it even when they weren't.
There's actually some survey data from this from executives,
where about a third of them
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claimed that they were reported
anonymously, that they were doing this. That their AI stuff
was really performative. It
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wasn't really doing very much.
So there's a lot of claiming it's AI, even when it's probably
not. You know, companies that
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are a little more honest like
this, which includes Amazon, say— if you read what they
actually say, they say they
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expect that the work of the
people being cut will be taken over by AI. It hasn't yet,
right? - Right. - You know, my
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looking at individual companies
and when they introduce AI is that you just don't see
headcount dropping. What you see
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is eventually able to take on
more work with the same number of people. Now you might think
that's the same thing, but it's
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really not. So if you think
about computer programmers, for example, 30% of their time— only
30%— is writing code. So let's
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say AI takes over that whole
task. They've still got 70% of their time doing other things,
which is talking to clients and
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people in the organization,
figuring out what our needs are, managing their expectations,
getting budgets, all that stuff.
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So if you took that 30% away,
you still have 70% of those— of that work that has to be done.
So you're not, at least in the
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short term, cutting any of those
people, nor can you just ram them together and cut one
programmer, right?
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Well, and I guess it brings up
an interesting point that you kind of led into before, is that
there are many businesses out
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there that maybe are still
trying to figure out what their future hiring levels longer
term are going to look like.
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- Yeah. - Because they don't know
exactly how AI is going to impact their productivity, and
they don't want to make these
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moves just yet. Yeah, I think that's— you know,
that's a charitable view.
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- Okay. All right.
- Whatever— it might be, that they're just
cutting because they feel they
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have to cut. And for sure,
though, I think they're reluctant to staff up now. Part
of it might be because they're
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not sure how AI will play out,
but I would say more of it is just because of the uncertainty
generated largely by the
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administration, trade policies,
federal government contracts, all that kind of stuff. Where is
it going? It changes day by day.
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And if you're a business person,
you want to place big bets. Even medium bets, until you have a sense
of where that's going. And it—
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you know, it hasn't settled down
right? So not surprisingly, they're sitting on their
hands a bit.
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So would it be safe to say then,
at least maybe in the short term, that we're probably looking at
more of the same, like this
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pattern that we've kind of been
in for the last several months, that that's going to continue
while all of this kind of
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works itself out? Yeah, I mean, I think the
question is, will it settle down? And it's not clear
it's going to settle down. But I
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think at some point employers
have to decide, you know, we just can't do nothing. We
just can't keep waiting, because
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it's not going to settle down.
So maybe we have to start placing bets. You know, at
the Wharton School and at other
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institutions with students
graduating, we noticed this a lot, because college graduates
take the first hit. The easiest
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thing to do if you want to
shrink your workforce is to use attrition. That means just don't
fill vacancies when they pop up.
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And if you're going to fill
positions, the most challenging way to do it is to hire new
graduates in and train them.
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It's a longer term, slightly
longer term bet than just pulling somebody from someplace
else and popping them in. So the
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hiring that does take place has
shrunk down the most, I think, for new college graduates,
right?
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Peter, always great to get your
thoughts and your— and spend some time with you. I appreciate it.
We will talk to you again very
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soon, sir. Thank you. Good. Thank you, Dan. Peter Cappelli, Professor of Management here at
the Wharton School.