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Why Simple Models Win – Mathematician & Hockey Analyst Micah McCurdy

April 22, 2026 / 00:48

This episode covers a prediction contest for the regular season, discussing strategies for making accurate predictions and the differences in approaches among participants.

The host explains how some contestants simply guess their numbers while others apply logical methods to ensure their predictions are feasible within the season's point totals. This distinction leads to varying levels of success.

Key discussions include the importance of sensible strategies in prediction contests and the challenges faced when trying to refine those strategies for better outcomes.

TL;DR

The episode discusses strategies for a prediction contest and the differences in participants' approaches.

Episode

0:48
00:00:00
I run a prediction contest for the
00:00:01
regular season every year. Um, where I
00:00:03
give whoever wins a lot of sour candy.
00:00:05
But one of the things that you can
00:00:06
really tell is that some people are just
00:00:08
winging it. They're just putting in
00:00:09
whatever numbers based on, you know,
00:00:10
whatever they feel like. And other
00:00:11
people are actually doing simple things
00:00:13
like making sure that the number of
00:00:15
points adds up to a a number of points
00:00:17
that is possible for the entire for the
00:00:19
whole season. And you see a really,
00:00:21
really big difference. So as long as you
00:00:22
do something sensible, you can get sort
00:00:24
of to the same place that all of the
00:00:26
other people doing something sensible
00:00:28
get to. And then then the real struggle
00:00:31
comes from, you know, now what do you
00:00:33
do? What are you going to try to
00:00:34
actually get some juice out of
00:00:35
something? And there you find almost
00:00:37
immediately, you know, well, let's try
00:00:39
this. It doesn't help. Let's try that.
00:00:40
It doesn't help.

Episode Highlights

  • The Prediction Contest
    Every year, I run a prediction contest with sour candy as the prize.
    @ 00m 03s
    April 22, 2026
  • Sensible Strategies Matter
    Some participants wing it, while others use sensible strategies to improve their predictions.
    “You see a really, really big difference.”
    @ 00m 21s
    April 22, 2026

Episode Quotes

  • You see a really, really big difference.
    Why Simple Models Win – Mathematician & Hockey Analyst Micah McCurdy
  • As long as you do something sensible, you can get to the same place.
    Why Simple Models Win – Mathematician & Hockey Analyst Micah McCurdy

Key Moments

  • Prediction Contest00:03
  • Sensible Strategies00:22
  • Trial and Error00:39

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