Search Captions & Ask AI

Labor market trends heading into 2026 – Wharton professor's breakdown

December 29, 2025 / 01:03

This episode discusses the current state of the labor market, focusing on unemployment rates, job changes, and layoffs. Key topics include the frozen labor market, low job turnover, and economic resilience.

The conversation highlights that while unemployment remains low, the rate of job changes is stagnant. There is a notable increase in layoff announcements, particularly from Challenger and Gray, but overall job loss remains limited.

Experts suggest that companies are in a wait-and-see mode, indicating uncertainty in the market. The economy appears to be robust, but there are potential headwinds that could impact future job dynamics.

Listeners gain insights into the delicate balance of the labor market, where conditions could shift either positively or negatively depending on various factors.

TL;DR

The labor market is stagnant with low job changes despite low unemployment and rising layoff announcements.

Episode

1:03
00:00:00
This year, I think we've been talking a
00:00:01
little bit about a frozen labor market.
00:00:04
Unemployment's pretty good. There's not
00:00:06
a lot to worry about there at the
00:00:08
moment, but the rate of people changing
00:00:10
jobs has been very low. Layoffs,
00:00:14
depending on what indicator you look at,
00:00:16
still fairly low. I think the challenger
00:00:18
and grade layoff announcements has
00:00:20
really spiked, but when you look at
00:00:21
other sources of data, again, it doesn't
00:00:23
look like a lot of people are losing
00:00:25
their jobs, but they're not taking jobs
00:00:27
either. And so it's being this I think
00:00:29
wait and see almost on everybody's
00:00:31
behalf. Anything could happen. Uh it's I
00:00:35
think you know you could definitely tell
00:00:37
a story where things are going to pick
00:00:39
up. Um the economy hasn't slid as much
00:00:41
as we would expect. It's reasonably
00:00:44
robust. Um if companies have been
00:00:47
waiting to essentially some of them
00:00:48
might decide okay let let's just do it.
00:00:51
But you know there are also a bunch of
00:00:53
headwinds. So I I think it's we're in
00:00:55
this kind of teetering state where it
00:00:56
could go either way.

Episode Highlights

  • Unemployment Insights
    Unemployment rates are good, but job changes are at a historic low.
    “Unemployment's pretty good. There's not a lot to worry about there.”
    @ 00m 04s
    December 29, 2025
  • Economic Outlook
    The economy remains robust, but companies are hesitant to make moves.
    “The economy hasn't slid as much as we would expect.”
    @ 00m 41s
    December 29, 2025

Episode Quotes

  • It's a wait and see almost on everybody's behalf.
    Labor market trends heading into 2026 – Wharton professor's breakdown
  • The economy hasn't slid as much as we would expect.
    Labor market trends heading into 2026 – Wharton professor's breakdown
  • We're in this kind of teetering state where it could go either way.
    Labor market trends heading into 2026 – Wharton professor's breakdown

Key Moments

  • Low Job Changes00:08
  • Teetering State00:55

Related Episodes

Job Market 2026: Wharton Professor's Predictions Based on Recent Trends
December 24, 2025
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
08:57
Job Market 2026: Wharton Professor's Predictions Based on Recent Trends
The Job Market Outlook for New Graduates in 2025
May 16, 2025
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
06:44
The Job Market Outlook for New Graduates in 2025
Why Hiring Has Slowed Without Mass Layoffs
February 18, 2026
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
10:17
Why Hiring Has Slowed Without Mass Layoffs
Jeremy Siegel's 2024 Economy Forecast – Wharton Business Daily Interview
December 26, 2023
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
17:46
Jeremy Siegel's 2024 Economy Forecast – Wharton Business Daily Interview
"The Future of the Office" w/ Prof. Peter Cappelli – Wharton School Press "Meet the Authors" Event
November 04, 2021
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
29:18
"The Future of the Office" w/ Prof. Peter Cappelli – Wharton School Press "Meet the Authors" Event
Forecasting 2024 Workplace Trends with Wharton Professor Matthew Bidwell
December 29, 2023
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
16:31
Forecasting 2024 Workplace Trends with Wharton Professor Matthew Bidwell
AI Growth Surge & Iran Crisis: What Investors Need to Know
March 27, 2026
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
10:46
AI Growth Surge & Iran Crisis: What Investors Need to Know
Jeremy Siegel Interview: Markets Brace for a Fed Pause and Rising Bonds Yields
November 01, 2025
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
10:09
Jeremy Siegel Interview: Markets Brace for a Fed Pause and Rising Bonds Yields
Peter Cappelli: The New Job Market
February 03, 2010
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
12:46
Peter Cappelli: The New Job Market
Wharton Professor Peter Cappelli: Has High Unemployment Become Acceptable?
July 21, 2010
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
15:03
Wharton Professor Peter Cappelli: Has High Unemployment Become Acceptable?
Talent Hunt: Getting the People You Need, When You Need Them
April 16, 2008
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
25:54
Talent Hunt: Getting the People You Need, When You Need Them
Jeremy Siegel: A 2016 Outlook for Stocks
January 04, 2016
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
16:53
Jeremy Siegel: A 2016 Outlook for Stocks