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Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball here on the Wharton podcast network. This is Eric Bradler, professor of
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marketing, statistics, and data science here at the Wharton School. Some combination of myself, Cade Massie, Audi
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Winer, and Shane Jensen are here every week on Wharton Moneyball. Um, for me, uh, the best part of the last 11 and a
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half years have been our interviews with, you know, if you'd like, they're
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now friends, but colleagues that are working in industry that are actually applying statistics, data science to all
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kinds of interesting sports. Today is a returning guest. I I'm going to guess 20
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times he's been on the show, but it could be more over the last 11 plus years. Well, we're happy to welcome back
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Kevin Cole. Kevin Spider of Unexpected Points newsletter Substack if you'd like
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formerly of uh PFF and he's an NFL data analyst and also I'm sure we've talked to Kevin about
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this before but as a former bond and equity analyst. So Kevin, welcome back to Wharton Moneyball.
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>> Well, thanks for having me back. I might I might take the under on 20. That that
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sounds like rarified air, but I I consider myself more of a fan. More of a fan than anything.
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>> Neil Kane might be the only one that's a 20. So there there we go. But either
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way, it's good to have you back on the show. >> It's good to be back. Like I said, I
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consider myself a fan. More more of a fan and an occasional guest and a uh a perennial fan.
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>> Ah, well, we appreciate that. Um, so let me start with the following. One of the
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things since you sent us some notes about one you wanted to talk about. One of the the first topic here is one that
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people I think love, which is, you know, Kevin, why do we need fancy analytics? Can't we just look at the win loss
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record of teams? You know, it's kind of like in baseball. Can't I just look at
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someone's batting average and see who's best? You know, why do I need this war
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and all these other fancy stats? So, what can you first explain why you think we need something different between
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record and team strength? And then secondly, which teams do you see so far this year that there's the biggest
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disconnect? >> Yeah. Yeah. You know, I I get a little lesson in public perception versus maybe
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what my numbers are telling me. Every every week I put out my my power rankings. You got to put out the power
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rankings. So, every week I do this and you know, I'm trolling a little bit because I call them my 100% correct, the
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only 100% correct power rankings that come out each week. >> You mean in an anchor man type of way,
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like 100% of the time they're right half the time? >> Yeah. Yeah. 60% of the time it works
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every time for my from from my rankings and that would be pretty good in the betting market, right? Um so yeah, I
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mean I think it's really just getting at an issue that we're all we're all trying
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to discover the truth through prediction is is a good way of kind of being able to discover the truth. I mean no matter
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no matter who we're talking about here, whether it's a an analyst, you know,
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it's it's Dan Orlovski or even if it's Stephen A. Smiths. Maybe someone who's
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doing more of the uh the talk radio type. >> Kevin, we don't use his name on this
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podcast. >> You don't? >> You [laughter] don't? Oh, I don't know.
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Oh, okay. I I could have used his name, but Okay, let's go ahead. Yeah. >> Okay. Or or whoever you want to
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interject into there. I mean, at the end of the day, I think everyone is making at least an implicit prediction on on
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what's going to happen. And if they tell you this quarterback is better than this
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other quarterback, I mean, I think they're telling you they're probably going to perform better. I mean, maybe
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they'll they'll have adjustments to that. May, you know, after the fact, I'm
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sure they'll tell you why the guy they said was better didn't perform better
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because of the the offensive coordinator or the line or other things like that. Um, but everyone's kind of making at
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least an implicit prediction. So, it's really just translating that explicitly
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in into a prediction. And I think it's useful, although it's confusing to some
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people because I think some people view the rankings and things like that being more like an AP college football type of
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poll in the past where I saw some instructions. I was just looking this up today for for for AP voters. And you
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know, they're explicitly told that you should you should judge by performance.
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So, you know, also kind of known as results and you should judge by headtohead. You should judge by these
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sort of things. And of course, I'm not judging by those things. I mean, those
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are factored in, but they're not going to be part of an additional adjustment
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for trying to figure out how good these teams are going to be in the future. And
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I think that's where the disconnect that's where the disconnect comes is
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number one and kind of how people feel like is deserving or not, a sense of fairness maybe as to where they may be
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ranked. And then the second thing is probably just overvaluing what's happened win and loss-wise because it's
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hard it's hard to differentiate after you watch a game who was better or not
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based upon anything but the final result. So Kevin, before I turn things back over to Kade to lead this
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discussion, let me just ask you. So do you view your power ranking on unexpected points? Do you view it as
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something that's backwardlooking, which is how much did team A perform compared
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to team B, or do you look it as more forwardlooking, like if team A and team B were to play each other in the future,
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this would be something about the expected outcome? How do you how do you see it?
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>> Yeah. No, it's it's the latter. So it's it's it's done the same way that you
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know um Massie Peabody and others have have kind of the standard formula which is the expected point differential
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versus an average team on a neutral field. Um and then and then you build the rankings there. And what's also
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funny about the rankings because when you just without the context of these team strength numbers that are
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underlying them if someone is ranked you know 17th versus 12th it's like oh my
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god I can't believe it. where the reality is we're talking about maybe less than a half a point difference in
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team strength that could flip oh so easily. So that that's another it's kind
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of a comical thing uh to put into it. But I have to put I have to put out the rankings every week because that the
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people love it. And plus, you know, it gets me like 10 bucks from X or something like that. So I'll take it.
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>> The first part of my question just so and then I'll turn it over to Kate would
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be so which teams do you think there might be a disconnect between you know what's I don't know maybe you don't
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think the Broncos are any good. they're 10 and two or whatever they are and maybe their team strength is lower than
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that or you know I don't know the Jaguars eight and four maybe they're not
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actually very good. I don't know what which teams do you see the disconnect between?
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>> Yeah. Yeah. I think I I I hear a little bit more uh noise from people who who
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believe their teams are are underrated and um you named two of the top teams. I mean, the Panthers I mean, the Panthers
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may be the the number one team right now for people coming after me because I didn't really move them that much based
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upon a win against the the Rams who according to my rankings are actually the best the best team in the NFL. Um,
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and that kind of goes that goes another layer and I try to link to that and explain in my write up when I'm talking
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about these teams about how I actually analyze each individual game. And it was one of the bigger swings of saying the
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Rams lost by three points. But I I put together this thing called adjusted scores where I try to make a bunch of
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adjustments based upon um you know the the variance in high leverage situations, the things that have less
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less stickiness like special teams play or fumble recoveries or things like that. And I actually had the Rams being
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10 points better which is really a huge a huge shift. So, so again, they're looking at this and in their assessment
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week over week, what should be happening is Panthers won against a great team, yes, at home, but against a great team
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by three points. And my assessment week over week is um at home the Panthers really kind of lost by 10 points and and
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and that that's a big loss for me because again, I would be kind of stripping out some of these high
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variance things. So, so very often if a team wins by 20 or 25 points, my my calculation is is not that big because
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normally, you know, winning or winning by that much is a combination of two things. It's normally good luck and and
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good play. So, so, so, so that's the disconnect basically in people's minds
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between between what they're thinking and then what my rankings are saying. >> So, uh, with all that talk about
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deserving versus power rankings, I thought you were talking college football. I was so excited. I thought,
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"Wow, Eric shocked me by not only Eric >> off off air." Kevin and I decided we
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were only going to talk NFL. >> Yeah, exactly. Well, that was the that was the intention of bringing Kevin on.
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And I've just rarely felt more um in need of a Kevin Cole to explain to me the the NFL. I think there's some
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combination between I've been a little distracted and also this is a nonsensical season. Um, I mean, I was
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sitting with someone in sports, a different sport last night and he asked me who, so who's the best team in the
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NFL? I'm like, I have no idea. I don't think anybody does have any idea. Um,
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he's like, is it Seattle? I'm like, can Sam Darnold be quarterbacking the best
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team in the NFL? I I kind of doubt it, but Kevin Cole's going to tell me tomorrow. I'm going to understand better
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at the end of that conversation. So, can you clarify? You just did a whole bunch
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of methodology and throw clearing. I just want to know, Kevin, who's the best
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team in the NFL? Yeah. Well, I mean, I have the Rams is the best team in the NFL, so that points
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back to to to what I was saying where it being off by what happened last week versus what had happened in the past.
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Um, and a decent gap between them and a number of teams in a, you know, second tier or a 1B sort sort of tier after
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that. And, and I agree with you. I although I think I think we're we're probably biased to thinking this more so
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than what it is every year to be like whoa it's crazy what's going on this
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year just because you know we're we're always late of course updating uh what's
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happening based upon the evidence but I do think there is a lot going on this season where I was looking at my
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preseason rankings versus win loss records right now um and it is a dramatic difference. I mean, there's
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none of the teams that are that are up at the top with these nine wins and over teams um were really top five teams for
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me coming into the season. Um but it doesn't but but then if I compare that to my go forward rankings, there are
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some of these top five teams who were still really really near the top. So it kind of shows you how that disconnect
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between results and and team strength. >> Okay, but hold on. probably have your
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prior still in your go forward prediction predict predict power rate >> very very very little only about 5%
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right now in in in what's in what's going forward so it's really more so
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that the the performance and I think I I especially mentioned to you guys pre-show talking about the Chiefs I
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think Chiefs are just are probably the most interesting because there's no nothing we could count on more than the
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than the Chiefs being good but it is one of those things where by most metrics they're better a lot better than they
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were last year and they had um 11 wins at this point in the season last >> Yeah. But you know the stat also Kevin
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how many one score or close games they won last year and this year if you don't
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want to count outcomes if you want to count true strength we can't count outcomes and they won every close game
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last year. I think they they set the NFL record for the most close game wins in a
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row and this year I think they're one and six or they've lost every close
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game. >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. The one score game and then and then also last year I mean
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I I wasn't very high on them going into the season. actually had them fifth coming in coming into to this season
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which is relatively low than than where they may have been perceived. So they've
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outperformed in some ways by expectations but their record is a lot worse than than you would have thought.
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>> So can you give it walk us through your power rankings um a little bit. I'm I'm
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digging through your substack. I hope I hope you were you were you were promoted
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sufficiently because Kevin runs >> I promote I promoted I promoted the substack to start with. So give us give
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us tears or give us something help us consume the NFL with some with some more sense. Though I think one one question
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is you know could we look at if if the scores if the outcomes have been so unrelated to under underlying
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power then that should we should be able to operationalize that in some way. So at this point in the season what measure
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could we use to ask is it truly more volatile and unexpected this year than typical? you know, I tried to figure
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that out and sometimes it's hard to some when you're looking at things in in in
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aggregate or across the entire sample. Um, a lot of what is driving the kind again, this is what you're trying to do
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a lot in Seth. You're trying to kind of like a a feeling in a way, a theoretical
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feeling, and then trying to figure out, well, what's the right, you know, target
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variable for figuring out >> that's the business we three are in. Well, well, what that feeling is, but
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then often what we're doing though is you're looking at the sample of 32
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teams. So, I looked at it, I said, "Okay, let's look at how much is point
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differential." Because I I I I I I mention that sometimes is a very easy intuitive type of stat to say, you know,
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the Broncos are ninth, I think, in in in best point differential this year. So, that kind of aligns better with where I
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have them versus where their their record may say they are. So, I looked at point differential versus wins at this
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point in the season versus prior seasons. Pretty similar. Like, there's not really um a big difference there.
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So, then I said, "Okay, well, let's look at, you know, offensive efficiency.
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Let's look at offensive passing efficiency. Let's look at all these different things that I think might be
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um normally the drivers of performance." And everything seemed pretty good. So, I
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think it's more a team by team um surprise that are that that's going on. and maybe the marquee team names
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that are not um withstanding some of this variance this year that we've seen
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in the past. So if we look at like the >> Can we ask a quick question just like
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wouldn't I mean maybe we're just maybe we're taking this for granted but it'd
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be nice to operationalize it >> the relation between your power rankings and the
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this the realized score differential to this point. So that would be less related this year if our intuition is
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right. That should be that correlation right now as we sit here today be lower than it is in
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>> No, that's correct. No, that that that is a bit lower. Um but I was also
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interested in maybe if just the results were were weird if there was more of this um you know one score game type of
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situation that's flipping a different way. Um, so I think from from that perspective, um, it's really that the
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the the top teams in the NFL, let's say since 2020, which is kind of when Josh
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Allen had his breakout and everything, it's probably the the teams with the most wins are the, you know, the Chiefs,
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the the Eagles, the Ravens, the Bills are are right up there. Um, so if you look at all all those and then you start
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to get into some other teams, the Packers are up there, but that's a lot of Aaron Rogers sorts of years that are
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in there. The Bengals are kind of wroy are are extremely good. So they fit into that into that bucket.
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>> The NFC South champion for the last four years. >> Yes. Well, again, you have some Tom
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Brady in there, I guess, a little bit a little bit a little bit too. So, um maybe I'm putting them aside as as being
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as being seen on that same sort of level, but I think those teams have just generally been disappointing either by
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records or if they have decent results like the Eagles. I don't think anyone I
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mean every other week, you know, they want Nick Serriani fired for for even if their their record seems to be okay.
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There there's a there's a high level of dissatisfaction I think with maybe how
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those teams are doing. And then on the flip side, you have this quarterback driver for a few teams. One, the
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secondyear breakout of of Drake May where I think there's still some disbelief as to whether or not that's
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real despite the fact that I think he's leading MVP odds at this point because
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of the strength of schedule. There's some you'll see we'll see about that.
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they're going to play the Bills and the Ravens coming out of the buy. So, I think that'll maybe answer some
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questions there. And then Sam Darnold going to Seattle, which is pro just, you know, excellent results there. I think
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DVOA and maybe if you have if you talk to Aaron Shots, they might have the the Seahawks being the best team in in the
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NFL so far this year. And then Daniel Jones going to the Colts is another team where their results have been really
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really good. So, it's not a fluky thing um for that those teams are playing so
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well, but it does seem fluky versus what we expected in the preseason. What we expect from veteran quarterbacks who
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have been around a long time where in the case of Darnold, this is the second year of his kind of massive breakout
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that he had in in Minnesota. But still, you don't normally see see that sort of
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thing for a veteran quarterback elite type of play. Sometimes you get above average, but this type of elite play is
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a little bit beyond what we're expecting. Just thinking maybe Kevin building on
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what you just said maybe one interesting measure of uncertainty would be you know
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how much deviation is there from the prior like we know what the prior was and like if I had told you after week 13
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here's the division leaders the Patriots the Ravens the Jaguars the Broncos maybe
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the Eagles the Bears maybe the Bucks the Rams maybe Half of those you would have
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said yes. Maybe the other half you would have said no. So I like this idea if you
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think about it. What is the posterior? It's the deviation from the prior. And
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so we could think about, you know, let's compare today versus the prior. There's
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lots of measures of differences between distributions. And we could just say the
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kind of surprise of a season or the uncertainty could be some measure of the distance like how much updating has
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happened. And you could call that a measure of uncertainty. It's not a bad way to think about it. You could call it
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a measure of learning. Also, >> the one one it one that thing that's it's
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confounding or not capturing is if it's just the prior and the posterior on your
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power ranking, you're not capturing all the volatility in the one loss records.
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And so you might play with the power the you might play with like some some some
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probability of success because that's what's really different than expected.
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Even if you're power even because of because of the results even good teams I
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mean the Chiefs might still be one of the best two or three teams in the AFC but they might not make the playoffs and
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odds must be against them making the playoffs at this point. Yeah, I mean they, for example, they have the fourth
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best point differential right now in the AFC, better than the Broncos and Chargers in their own division. Um, the
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only teams that are better are the Patriots, the Colts, and barely the Bills. >> Yeah. And Kevin, where do you have them
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on your power records? >> I mean, I still have uh I have I still have the Chiefs at number four. I mean,
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I had him at number two going into this this last week. So, trust me, I'm hearing about that. Um um also so I from
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my investigation that I've that I've done and again I haven't done enough
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investigation the kind of variance of results versus observed strength this this season just
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from what they've done. Forget about priors or anything else. I don't think
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there's anything there's actually nothing really there's nothing really
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there. I think it's just happened to certain teams. Now, no, has it happened
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to certain teams like the Chiefs that we notice a lot. Whereas, if it happened to
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another team that we didn't really believe in, if they were underperforming, we it wouldn't register
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because we would say, "Oh, well, you know, they're underperforming." Or if
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you're underperforming in a way, we're not expected to be a top five team, but
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if you're expected to be, you know, the eighth team and you end up the 18th team
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or something like that, that it doesn't register as much. So, so I think that's
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sticking out. And then the other part that we we've discussed, I do think there is this this disconnect between on
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a week- toeek basis of what the power rankings my power rankings would be versus the results in particular um the
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the the Chiefs when for it comes to win loss. But then also again these quarterback situations, Seattle, New
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England, and and Indianapolis really jumping up in a way that that you know was was probably if of any team it was
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probably the Patriots where you would have that in their range of outcomes a little bit more because of the you'd
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have a higher uncertainty with what's going on with the quarterbacks, but probably not as much elsewhere despite
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the fact that Sam Darnold had a had a pretty good year last year. >> Kevin, are you buying or selling the um
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Texans? I'm telling you, I saw that almost all of that game they just played
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against the Colts. And I mean, they're the number one defense in the NFL by so
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many different measures. Um, they're now seven and five. I think I think they
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were one and four at one point or one and I don't know. They've won four
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straight. That much? I know. Are you buying the Texans or you're not? You're
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just uh No, they're about where they should be. I mean, I I think they're about where
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they should be, but it's it's hard when you have, you know, rules that are or
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assumptions that are just baked into everything. And one of the assumptions is always going to be, you know, fading
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defense a little bit more versus offense and a go forward type of of projection that so that makes it a bit more
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difficult. I mean, I have them being a slightly above average sort of team, and I know
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that probably doesn't comport with where people see them right now. Um, for for a
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couple different reasons. U one, they've had some, you know, higher profile wins
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and the recency is factored in to mine, but not nearly as much. That was my question.
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>> Let's stay with that division because it's a good race and you have fair
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questions about three of the four teams. So, they're one game behind both the
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Colts and the Jaguars. What do you think about those two teams? And in the end, with five games left, what do you expect
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to happen in that division? >> Well, so the the Jags I have being slightly worse than the Texans and then
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the Colts I have being pretty materially better um of a team. And again, it's
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going to be looking at recency maybe in the opposite direction where do you know
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when the Colts were rip roaring to start to start the season, especially offensively if you were going to kind of
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plot out, you know, expected points added per play offensively, even with adjustments for for strength
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of schedule and things like that. The Colts were almost head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL when we were
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four or five weeks into the season. and now they've faded back to still be pretty good, to still be, you know,
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easily a top 10 team as far as that's concerned, but not nearly as good. So, I
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think I think for for me, I'm probably still weighting those early performances
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higher than what other perceptions may be on that. They still have a very strong like, again, if we want to just
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simplify it, like yards per play, I think they're still number one in the NFL right now um for what they've been
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able to to do with with um with Daniel Jones. So, so I'm a bit higher on them.
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I would be I would be predicting them to to go ahead and follow through uh on winning the division. But, you know,
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again, it really just depends on on whether or not this level of quarterback performance that we've gotten from
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Daniel Jones, if you're putting that in a bucket with quarterbacks who normally
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perform on this level, those quarterbacks are probably a lot more reliable for the rest of the season than
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Daniel Jones is. >> This is fun and relevant. So, let's stay with this schema for a bit. is like, you
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know, up to eight times. AFC West, Broncos and Chargers. Let's let's just
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kind of ignore the Chiefs world because they more or less have to win out and get some luck somewhere else. But it's I
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still don't believe in Bo Knicks. Am I wrong? I mean, I must be wrong at this
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point. No. >> Um I mean, you can you can have varied belief, [laughter] I guess, in how much
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you are. I mean, I I'm I think he's proving he's proving more and more that
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he could be that he that he is, let's say, um a franchise quarterback. Now, is
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he an elite franchise quarterback? I would also say he's doing two things at
00:23:58
the same time, which is which they seem they seem to be um you know, at at odds with each other, but maybe they're not
00:24:05
really, which is he's proving more and more that he's not going to be someone
00:24:09
they move on from in a year or two or three. But he's also proving at least to
00:24:14
me in my numbers you're as he goes on and on that he's not necessarily going
00:24:17
to be an elite quarterback at the same point in time which is maybe where where the disconnect is. You combine that with
00:24:22
a great defense and a good win loss you know that's where where that can make
00:24:26
the difference right like an average quarterback with a great defense is viewed much differently than an average
00:24:30
quarterback with a poor defense. >> I would be pretty sure to follow up on
00:24:33
Boon Knicks Kevin if I was going to look at this but if let's pretend the Broncos
00:24:38
win the Super Bowl this year. It's not impossible the Broncos could win. >> Definitely not impossible.
00:24:42
>> No, no. They have a great coach. They have a great defense. They could win the
00:24:46
He wouldn't be the worst quarterback to ever win the Super Bowl. >> No, no, not even not even close. Um,
00:24:51
>> that's what I'm saying. So, he's good enough. I'm just saying he's good enough
00:24:55
to win the Super Bowl with the defense, the Bronco. Look, Pton Manning was a worse quarterback when they won the
00:25:02
Super Bowl with him in his se last Super Bowl. I mean, Pton Manning wasn't any
00:25:06
good at in his last season. I mean, come on. He was he was he was kind of the ghost of paid bank at at that point. And
00:25:13
I think I think one thing another thing that's maybe a little bit more on the
00:25:17
>> you can qu you can have quantitative measures for it but it's a little bit on
00:25:20
the on the qualitative side with Nicks is he can move. He can you know he's got
00:25:26
a little gunslingerish sort ofness to him and he has thrown the ball a lot like he is his volume is not low. He's
00:25:34
not someone they're hiding as as a quarterback. And you could say that their scheme isn't the most uh you know
00:25:40
downfield in that way, BUT IT'S NOT THAT bad actually. It's not like when they
00:25:43
had Russell Wilson there or something like that. That type of or so maybe even a Drew Brees type of scheme. They are
00:25:48
pushing it a little bit. Drew Brees late career Drew Brees. I don't want to burmer Drew Brees early in his career.
00:25:54
>> Um >> so I do think he has those elements which puts you into the ability to win
00:26:00
in different game states. Um which is more useful in the playoffs even if you have a great defense. Sometimes your
00:26:06
great defense is going to be trumped by an even better offense and you have to have someone who can throw you out of it
00:26:12
even if they aren't, you know, uh on some sort of average uh per play metric
00:26:17
that great that they can give you some upside in those situations. >> I didn't realize he was so I just looked
00:26:22
he's ranked 20th in QBR. That ain't good. >> No, no, no. That never mind.
00:26:28
>> Never mind everything I just said. Bon Nicks is terrible. [laughter] >> Well, I don't think he's terrible. I I I
00:26:34
haven't ranked a little bit higher. I haven't looked a little bit higher, but
00:26:37
you know, by the way, I think that's fair. >> He's right next to Jaylen Herz.
00:26:42
>> Well, Jaylen Herz, I mean, Jayen Herds is making like 90 million a year or
00:26:45
something. So, >> I'm just saying Jaylen's 19th in in in QBR. >> We have Let's Let's ask about a few
00:26:50
other important teams in other divisions. So, you just w you just went to one of them. Herds, the Eagles. So
00:26:56
much drama. And where's Kevin Cole on on this team? >> I mean, I'm I I I'm relatively low, I
00:27:03
guess. I mean, I have them ranked ninth. I've had them I I've had them low all
00:27:06
season because they were such a dominant defense last year without really having
00:27:11
a great offensive resume. Um, and then they obviously ended up exploding in the Super Bowl. And I don't know, there's
00:27:17
just nothing they've done this year. They they had some close wins. One of the wins against the Rams, you know,
00:27:22
where they I think they won off of special teams blocks like backtoback weeks and things and so I've been I've
00:27:29
been in disbelief. I've been lower than the markets on them considerably. I think the markets have been, at least in
00:27:35
my opinion, have been giving them a bit of a boost, an unnatural maybe boost versus what their numbers say. Just just
00:27:42
so I don't know. I'm still low on >> unnatural boost. That's a new that's a
00:27:46
new quant phrase I hadn't heard before. Kevin, uh, if you like offense so much,
00:27:50
maybe you like the Cowboys. >> I do like the Cowboys. I mean, I have for for most of the season. And I don't
00:28:00
know, it's it's funny to even see in the media now. I've seen some things about,
00:28:03
oh, the Cowboys defense is is coming together. Um, because I always say, you know, the variance on that side is going
00:28:09
to be is going to be a little bit higher. So, the Cowboys right now, I mean, I still don't have them ranked in
00:28:15
the top 10 overall. They're they're right outside of they're 13th and but
00:28:19
they're pretty close. Like, if they moved up half a point, they would be up into up into the top 10 because of that
00:28:24
offensive play that that they've had so far this year. Um, and in relative to
00:28:31
the Eagles, yeah, they're not that far away from the Eagles for me in team strength versus, you know, where some
00:28:36
people would probably have them. >> Okay. Looking for the best of the NFC.
00:28:40
You've already told us the Rams are your top your top team. Where where are you
00:28:44
after that? So, it's not from the NFC East apparently. Where are the Seahawks?
00:28:49
Where are the Packers for you? Are you still on the Lions at all? >> Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, I have the the
00:28:55
Packers as being the next best team. That's a team that it's interesting
00:29:00
because they I mean, they just have good they have good numbers. They have good numbers by my by my adjusted scores. You
00:29:07
know, everyone likes to to mock them when when they don't agree to say, but I
00:29:11
actually have them being better in 11 out of the 12 games so far so far this year.
00:29:15
>> Let me just say I love the adjusted score cut. It's absolutely fantastic the
00:29:18
adjusted score concept. >> No, no, no, no. I I I'm I'm not I I take
00:29:22
it I take it as friendly ribbing because you know um for because when I'll say it
00:29:28
you know that the team the fan of the team that won where you say they just score said they lost they'll say like oh
00:29:33
is this an adjusted this or an adjusted that they'll they'll like to make jokes
00:29:36
about about about about the different teams. Um, but I think I think the thing with the Packers, the disconnect here
00:29:42
seems to be related to to Jordan Love also, who is first in for his play involvements this year in
00:29:52
EPA per play. And I know that's a that's a team stat, but then again, you know,
00:29:55
passing touchdowns is a team stat, passing yards is a team stat, everything's a team stat. But even if
00:30:00
you look at PFF grading, I think he's third in the in the NFL so far this year. But there are a few people who
00:30:05
would probably point to him being at that at that level so far. So I I think he's maybe being discounted because
00:30:13
people have a lot of belief in in Matt Laflur and everything else that's going
00:30:18
on there because he revived Aaron Rodgers. And there's always these silly things that I think that have a a huge
00:30:25
outweighed influence of something like Malik Willis coming in and playing well when he's played after looking horrible
00:30:31
as a rookie. But, you know, it's just one backup quarterback for a handful of
00:30:36
starts can really affect people's views of of how good someone is as a play caller. And we just saw with Kevin
00:30:42
O'Connell, who people love and say, "Oh, he can make anyone good." You know, he
00:30:45
he had a guy who was an undrafted rookie and didn't look so good this last week.
00:30:49
I think most people I I'm just giving an opinion here. I mean, they're right what
00:30:52
a half game back, I guess you would call it, of the best record in the NFC. I think if the Packers end up behind,
00:31:00
let's say it, let's say they win their division, but aren't the number one
00:31:04
seed, so they're going to have to win at home and then they're going to have to
00:31:07
go on the road, let's say, to the Rams, maybe it's the Eagles, whoever it is, or
00:31:12
Seahawks. I I don't see how they can be favored. I just don't see how the
00:31:18
Packers the Packers of all the teams that are there, I almost feel like they need the number one seed the most.
00:31:24
Besides, you you you lo you skip a game, like I just don't I don't have any faith
00:31:31
in the Packers on the road in a big playoff game. Well, I mean, I would probably I mean,
00:31:38
if I was going to say who needs the number one seed the most, I guess I would say the Lions. So, they could be
00:31:41
at the dome and and playing in the dome the entire time might be might be the most important. But, I mean, they've
00:31:47
beaten the Lions a couple of times now already. um you know they had they've
00:31:52
had some struggles in other games but it was it's really strange because after
00:31:54
that first week of the season I think with Micah Parsons coming there probably being a little bit overvalued in his
00:31:59
impact people were you know seeing them as a Super Bowl contender initially and then I guess I guess they've had some un
00:32:05
they've had some bad performances on some some high-profile games but I don't
00:32:08
know but at least by by my numbers they're still they're still right up there whereas Detroit is maybe faded a
00:32:13
little bit from from what I was expecting due to some injuries and some other things so far this year. I just
00:32:18
want to note that they play Sunday afternoon with the ba the Bears are coming to town that the the current
00:32:23
number one seed Chicago Bears going into Green Bay as six and a half point underdogs and we know home fields.
00:32:31
>> Yeah, the Bears win that game. I'm going to I'm going to hear about it. I'm
00:32:33
definitely going to hear about it. >> Okay, but as I think Mike Sando over the
00:32:37
Athletic, he wrote a column about the Bears not being probably as good as they are. It's it's it's kind of too easy at
00:32:41
this point to talk about these different things, but um the Bears being another game, right? So they they won a really
00:32:47
high-profile game this last week >> and their offense stunk and their passing offense really I mean their
00:32:52
offense but their passing offense really bad. >> It wasn't good. Yeah, it was really bad.
00:32:57
>> But there's one play there was one highlight play that got shown a lot from
00:33:00
from Caleb. And I think Caleb is one of those guys where the the the the film hipsters, they love to see that one play
00:33:07
and they say, you know what, if we can get him to do that 10 times a game, but the problem is he he he just can't do it
00:33:12
10 times a game. Look, we got a playoff essentially, in my view, a playoff game on Thursday night. I was talking about
00:33:16
it just before we came on the air here. Uh Cowboys Lions Thursday night. That's
00:33:22
I mean, whoever loses that game is essentially eliminated. I mean, if the Cowboys are 66 and one, they're not
00:33:28
making the playoffs. If the Lions go to seven and six, they're probably not making the playoffs. I'm just saying
00:33:34
that's a highprofile Thursday night game. >> Was that Was that just last year that
00:33:38
Dallas went to Detroit and got knocked out of the playoffs? Is that what am I thinking about that right?
00:33:44
>> No. >> Um, >> one of the last >> I remember it. I was going to say two
00:33:47
years ago. I didn't think Dallas made >> Maybe I got it wrong. All right, but we
00:33:51
we're we're taking too much of your time, but I got to ask you two more teams. My two favorite teams, Ravens and
00:33:58
Bills. >> No, >> I thought you were going to say the Buccaneers. Sorry.
00:34:00
>> Sorry. Sorry. No, another B two other B teams. And Eric's got some Bills love
00:34:06
ending. though it's just not as much as his Bucks or Eagles float. Kevin, give us some hope.
00:34:13
>> Bills and Ravens. >> Well, I mean, the Ravens are probably the other team along with the Chiefs who
00:34:22
has a combination of of as far as their struggles versus their record versus where you were expecting them going to
00:34:28
the season being the furthest off. But it's I think it's been a combination of
00:34:31
Jackson's injury and at least since returning from injury, he has not been very good and their defense was
00:34:39
struggling a lot a lot earlier this year. So, I mean, I still have them as on the on the outside of the of the top
00:34:46
10, but I'm not sure it's good enough, honestly, to really get them going to to
00:34:50
to to make a run in the playoffs. >> Um, yeah, it's just it's odd that that team
00:34:57
is odd this year. Obviously, the the the Jackson injury is a huge thing, but just
00:35:01
independently of that, it's just it seems like so far off expectations. I don't I
00:35:06
>> Yeah, I mean, if you look at like just for offensive EPA per play they've had
00:35:09
the last I guess is they've been back for four weeks, it's just barely positive, negative, barely positive,
00:35:16
negative. And those and I mean, that's bad for a team that you're expecting to
00:35:19
have to have a good offense. So, I think that's one of the problems is you hate
00:35:22
to you hate to point to a few games and say is something wrong with um but there
00:35:27
there were at least numerous plays whether it was against a very easy Jets team or or other offenses that they've
00:35:33
played defense that they played recently where I don't know it just the things
00:35:36
are not clicking at least for them right now and we have a smaller sample to judge Lamar Jackson by this season.
00:35:40
>> So, the Bills did them a favor and knocked the Steelers off in a pretty
00:35:44
impressive win I would say last weekend. Um talk about the Bills. Talk about the
00:35:48
Bills. They obviously got a, you know, they're looking a wild card this year
00:35:51
for the first time in a while. They're looking at a legitimate conference uh
00:35:54
division um peer that's outpacing them. What do you think about the Bills? >> Well, they're an interesting situation
00:36:01
because last year they were they had to sneak in uh with a with a late run where
00:36:07
fundamentally they were a lot better than their record at about the same point. Um I think they're still they're
00:36:13
still a bit better than their record. And I mean, I've viewed the Bills as, and maybe I'm I'm off from some people's
00:36:21
perception on this, but you know, again, since 2020 when Allen had his thirdyear
00:36:26
breakout till till now, as being the second best team in the NFL overall, despite the fact that they never made
00:36:32
the Super Bowl because the Chiefs make it every single year, no matter how well Josh Allen seems to play in some of
00:36:38
those games. And Josh Allen as, you know, I'm not sure if people saw Patrick
00:36:42
Mahomes as as in his own tier, but I I I think I still do at this point as being
00:36:46
the best quarterback in the NFL, but if anyone's approaching him, it's to me
00:36:49
it's Josh Allen. when you have kind of that history of success as a team and
00:36:53
you have that level of quarterback and I think I think he can probably turn it on
00:36:59
or off a little bit more than what some what some others can do because of his ability to do every I mean he can he can
00:37:06
he can be in a shootout or he can you know grind out um quarterback design runs all all day long if if he wants to
00:37:14
do it. He's now been performing well in a short passing yak offense and he used
00:37:19
to chuck the ball, you know, 30 yards down the field sometimes ill advisedly uh in the past. So, I don't know. I I
00:37:25
think he's just on that level where I'm always going to be backing them as as a
00:37:30
top top-notch team if they make the playoffs. >> Look, the tough thing for Bills or
00:37:35
anybody that's in that seventh spot in the AFC is to make the Super Bowl, you're probably going to have to win at
00:37:41
Denver and at Patriots. And that's not going to be trivial to do. It's not
00:37:45
trivial for any seven seed to make the Super Bowl, but I'm just saying um those
00:37:50
are two strongish teams and it w it will not be easy. >> I'm with Kevin. You you you if you have
00:37:56
to back some team in those situations, you want to back a team with a proven quarterback and Josh Allen's about as
00:38:01
proven as we have at this stage. Okay. Uh in in just 30 seconds, if you had to put chips on three teams, your life
00:38:08
depends on getting the Super Bowl winner. Which three teams you got? >> Super Bowl winner. Um, okay. Well,
00:38:17
that's gonna we're gonna have to factor in, you know, record and >> for sure. Yes. How good I I think these
00:38:24
teams actually are at this point. I mean, it's a weird situation where the the the NFC has been performing a little
00:38:30
bit better. Um, but I still think the AFC could be a harder path if these teams end up end up making the playoffs.
00:38:36
So, it would probably be like multiple teams out of the the NFC. So, uh the Rams and probably the Packers next. Um
00:38:49
and then I probably take the the I guess I guess I would go with the Bills before
00:38:54
flipping back and just off of record. And you know, you never know what could happen in another difficult place to
00:38:59
play is Seattle. You never know. Let's go with Sam Darnold after that and say
00:39:03
he's he's already got he's got the record and maybe he's just crazy enough
00:39:06
to to get his team to the Super Bowl. >> Okay. Well, one of the things you're
00:39:09
telling us is you like you like three teams out of the NFC and you just damn near put all your chips on getting one
00:39:14
of those and it'd be Rams, Seahawks, and Packers not in that order. Rams, Packers, Seahawks. Interesting, fun.
00:39:20
Well, I I I just think if you know if the if the Ravens or the Chiefs make it and the Bills are in there, um you're
00:39:29
going to have some stiff competition to get out. Even if you have a strong record, like let's say you're the
00:39:35
Patriots or the Broncos or someone like that, you're going to have a pretty tough time. I I think and if they all
00:39:40
make it in there, then then it's just stacked um as far as the difficulty of
00:39:44
of getting out of that situation. Whereas if you can if you're the Rams or you're the Seahawks or you're the
00:39:49
Packers and you get one of those top seeds, I think you could have a more comfortable uh trip through the
00:39:55
playoffs. >> Yep. Like it. Kevin, thanks for the time, man. Really appreciate it. Y'all
00:39:59
go track him down. Kevin Cole, Unexpected Points, Substack. Fantastic read on sports analytics, especially on
00:40:05
the NFL. Kevin Cole, thanks for the time, man. Good to see you. >> Good to see you guys, too. Thanks so
00:40:10
much. >> Come back and join us after the break. >> All right. >> Welcome back. Welcome back to Wharton
00:40:16
Moneyball. Welcome back to the second half of this week's show. A full hour on
00:40:20
Sports Analytics coming to you on the Wharton podcast network. This is Kade Massie back in the host chair after yet
00:40:26
another technology issue at the top of the show. Eric sliding in gracefully kicking us off last quarter
00:40:33
announcement. PSA PSA for especially my team members. I'm on a brand new laptop
00:40:37
as of two hours ago. I have technology that wasn't produced pre- pandemic and
00:40:42
maybe that will help with the cooperation with our platform. We are just off the line with Kevin Cole.
00:40:48
Kevin, bring us up to speed. Very helpful to me on the NFL side. We've got about 15 minutes to run through the rest
00:40:55
of the sporting world. Top up. First thing, let's acknowledge regular season
00:41:00
over in college football except for Army Navy. We've got some conference championship games dead ahead this
00:41:06
weekend. We have a little bit of drama around the playoff seeds, the bracket, who's going to be in. There's not a lot
00:41:12
of drama, but there's some there's a few slots to be. >> I have a question. I do have a question
00:41:15
for you about that. Let's imagine that in the um SEC championship game. Okay.
00:41:20
Not hard to believe Georgia beats Alabama. Let's say that happens. Alabama's now a three- loss team. So, do
00:41:28
they count that? Like we've talked about like there are a bunch of two loss teams
00:41:33
that might say, "Wait a second, Bama's lost three." What happens if Georgia
00:41:38
beats Alabama? >> We don't we don't have enough track record to really know, much less um
00:41:43
track record with this committee because committees change year to year. >> Um there's plenty of argument that you
00:41:50
shouldn't be penalized for making a conference championship and losing. And I think that's probably the the standard
00:41:57
expectation. But if a team is panced and embarrassed and shown to be not what we
00:42:01
thought they were, the committee has the right to revise. So I don't think that's
00:42:06
going to happen. But I sus I mean I think if they got panced, there's some chance, but mostly no. And I don't think
00:42:11
they should. I don't think they should be punished for making the SEC championship game.
00:42:14
>> I mean, I'm f I'm fine with a three loss team making the playoffs if that you
00:42:19
know. >> How about I got a three I got a three loss team for you. >> Well, I got Yeah. Well, [laughter]
00:42:24
I just forget. You'll you'll correct me. Did Texas play Alabama this year?
00:42:28
>> No. Uh they they they played and lost to Ohio State and they played and lost to
00:42:32
Georgia and critically vitally for them. >> No, I know they beat Texas Tech or
00:42:37
whoever the last week or whatever. >> Texas&M and you know Texas Tech haven't
00:42:41
played Texas Tech. They beat&m uh&m. >> We don't need to talk about Texas right
00:42:45
now. What is notable Eric? You like chaos. I'll give you this isn't chaos,
00:42:49
but you'll like the story. >> All right. Give it to me. Yeah. Duke Duke has five losses, but by various
00:42:56
tiebreaker shenanigans have made it into the ACC championship game against UVA. And the rule isn't that the four power
00:43:06
conferences champions make it and then the the rest the group of five the best of the group of five. It's the top
00:43:13
whatever top what I've lost my numbers. It's the top >> five top five rated conference champions
00:43:21
make it. And um there's some chance that if Duke So Duke's a three and a half
00:43:27
point underdog. UVA already beat him once this year. Duke's a three and a half point underdog. That's not that
00:43:31
much. Duke could win. Duke could be a five loss champion of the ACC and be lower rated than two group of five or
00:43:39
group of six champ conference group of five conference champions. So, it's possible that that ACC wouldn't have a a
00:43:45
representative. Now, I've got your eyes open. Now, now I've got your >> I knew about that. I did know about
00:43:50
that. I knew that it was no longer It wasn't that every uh group of five school like the ACC may have no
00:43:56
representative and I would be fine by that. I It means that I assume you mean like Tain could be ranked higher.
00:44:03
>> Well, Tain Tain would I believe be ranked higher um if they win their game
00:44:10
against North Texas. So, the in North Texas. Whoever wins that game, >> North Texas two-lane winner is going to
00:44:15
be higher. The question is whether James Madison, so we need James Madison to win, seriously, James Madison to win and
00:44:22
Duke to be like unimpressive in their win over UVA and then we're going to get
00:44:26
a no ACC playoff. That would be glorious. The other thing that possibly could screw things up, if you you who
00:44:33
like chaos, is if BYU, who's a 12 and a half point underdog to Texas Tech, if
00:44:39
BYU wins, that'll be a classic bid stealer like the like the NCAA that's like the March Madness bid
00:44:46
Steelers where a team that otherwise wouldn't get in gets the conference champion ticket and Tech is Texas Tech
00:44:52
in no matter what. And so that would knock out an atlarge power five team if they did that.
00:44:58
>> Wow. So, just to be clear, that could knock out a Notre Dame as an example.
00:45:02
>> Yeah. And the the ones on the edge are kind of Notre Dame, Alabama, Oklahoma. I
00:45:06
don't know who's the least ranked of those. >> And just to be clear, if BYU, just to my
00:45:11
Am I correct that Texas Tech, did they lose recently? >> No. Tech lost first half of the season
00:45:17
to Arizona State. >> Okay. First half of the season. Okay. So, if if from some shocking way they
00:45:22
get beaten by two scores, they're going anyway. Tech's in. Tech Tech can't knock
00:45:28
themselves out of this. I don't think they can't knock themselves out. Well,
00:45:31
>> it would be amazing if I don't even What are they in the big Is they still called
00:45:34
a Big What are they in now? The Big 12? [laughter] >> Yes, the Big 12. >> Oh, is BYU BYU's in the Big 12?
00:45:40
>> Yeah, they're both >> whatever. Whatever conference they're
00:45:42
in. That would be shocking if two We There had been times, Kate, earlier in the season, we're talking about are any
00:45:48
Big 12 teams getting in. We could get two Big 12 teams. No ACC, no ACC team. That's right. That's right. You can get
00:45:57
two what you want. You want two Big 12. You want BYU, you want Duke to win in a,
00:46:02
you know, fumble recovery at the end of the game and then you want James Madison
00:46:05
to blow out whoever they play. They're big favorites, by the way. Um, and then
00:46:09
so you'd have BYU, Texas Tech, two lane, and uh James Madison, but nobody from
00:46:15
the AC. >> Beautiful. And by the way, are IU and Ohio State playing for the one seat?
00:46:22
>> Uh, yeah, absolutely. Yeah, that's that's that's true. >> Okay.
00:46:27
>> Um, >> nothing really to root for there. I mean, it doesn't really it's not a buy.
00:46:30
I mean, the first four teams got a buy and both these teams >> Well, it's another question. No, no,
00:46:36
>> they're probably both going to get a buy. >> It's no longer remember last year, I
00:46:40
forget who it was, like the 18th ranked team got a buy. That's gone now. It's
00:46:44
the top four ranked team. So, I both these teams are getting buys. Okay. So, so they're not I mean, they're playing
00:46:50
for a lot. They're still playing for a Big 10 championship, but they're not
00:46:53
playing for that much as far as >> it's interesting, Eric. That's That's
00:46:58
exactly right. And that's a fair take. And it's similar. It's similar with the
00:47:02
SEC. It's not It's not as It's not as cut and dry, but these they you kind of
00:47:07
have to care about the champ the conference championships for themselves to care much about these games other
00:47:13
than those Big 10 teams haven't played a lot. I mean, they haven't played a lot
00:47:18
of competition. And so it's kind of a is, you know, are they both real? Are they both as good as we think?
00:47:23
>> Let me ask you let me ask you another question. Is the following possible? I
00:47:26
haven't even thought about this. Georgia has already lost one game, right? They
00:47:29
have one loss. Okay, let's suppose Alabama sticks it to Georgia. Is there any argument that Alabama
00:47:39
should be a top four seed, get a week off as opposed to Oh, so Alabama and Georgia are playing for something. I
00:47:47
mean, if Alabama wins that game convincingly, Alabama could move into the four slot, which is where they have
00:47:53
Georgia now, get a week off and and >> or the two slot. They could be two. I
00:47:57
mean, the SEC champion. Are you kidding? That's a thing for sure. >> Okay. So, all right. So, that game I
00:48:02
really So, I wasn't that excited about that game, but now I mean, it's George
00:48:05
Alabama still, but I now I'm really excited about it because Bama's got something to play for. seeds are going
00:48:10
to be moved around but uh but in but the the so what's what's the yeah the the
00:48:17
margin the outside margin the extrinsic margin is not is there's a little bit of
00:48:21
action but there's not that much action >> okay >> okay Eric um I know you want to talk
00:48:25
about NBA talk to us about though I have before we do that you you brought my attention to the fact that the Colorado
00:48:32
Avalanche have only lost one regulation game all season that's absolutely spectacular now they have
00:48:37
>> looking Yeah I was looking They have six overtime losses. They have six overtime.
00:48:42
>> No, but I mean I understand those are losses. I get how it's scored, but
00:48:46
they're 181 and six. >> Are they just playing Are they just playing for overtime? Do they just do
00:48:55
they do they just crowd the net and save the defensive zone once they get to the
00:48:58
third? >> No. No. We don't know how many over I don't know how many overtime wins they
00:49:01
have. I know they have six overtime losses. I They could be 0 and six in overtime as far as I know. I I just
00:49:07
don't know. Um, but you know, I do this every year at this time of year. They're
00:49:11
on pace for the best record ever in the history of the NHL. 138 points. The record, by the way, is 135 just a couple
00:49:18
years ago. Obviously, you'd have to mean revert. They're not really on they have
00:49:22
they do not have an exceedence where you'd give them anywhere near even a 50%
00:49:27
probability. It would you you couldn't be more than I'm making up a number 20%
00:49:31
at this point. It's not maybe even lower. It's not that low. >> Probably lower. Yeah. Yeah. Plus, we'd
00:49:36
like to know we'd like to know some peripherals, as y'all call them in baseball, peripherals, like what what
00:49:41
are the what are the fundamentals driving that 181 and six record. Do we believe are they are they above
00:49:46
expectation, below expectation? >> What's the what's Pythagorean theorem
00:49:50
for hockey? I don't I I don't I don't know what the parameter >> That's a great that's a great question.
00:49:55
But either way, I just noticed they've only lost at the end of regulation right
00:49:58
now, they've played 25 games and they have lost one. >> Um All right. Well, you got another
00:50:04
example in the NBA, so let's jump over there. >> The Oklahoma City >> last week. Yeah, last week in the NBA,
00:50:09
uh, you know, Audi and I were on the show. I said, Audi, how great do you think OKC is? Remember, they're the
00:50:15
defending champs. I forget if they won 67 or 68 games last year, but they weren't a poter last year. They won the
00:50:21
title and they were the one seed going into the They were the one seed going into the NBA tournament. No one believed
00:50:27
in them. They they won the title last year, right? people who believed in them last year,
00:50:33
they they >> not not but not as strongly like well you know they've not proven themsel now
00:50:39
they're the NBA champs they've got the MVP in Shay Gildish Alexander they're 20
00:50:45
and one 20 and one on a 12game winning streak >> last year they set the record you may
00:50:53
remember Kade for the best point differential in the history of the NBA at 11.5 well they've played 21 games
00:50:59
this year and they're 15.5. So, at some point soon, if this team wins another title, and it's not
00:51:08
shocking me, let me ask a question. When do we start talking about the best record all time? They're 20 and one.
00:51:15
>> Okay, the record 73-9. 73-9. So, they still have to go 53 and 8, which is no joke, but they're at a
00:51:24
pace, I mean, you can do math right now. on the pace of I know there's not 84
00:51:29
games, but 80 and four. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's it's uh it's that's
00:51:34
pretty fantastic. >> And their second best player, >> Jaylen Jackson,
00:51:40
just came back from injury. I think he's played one or two games. >> Okay. What's the best, Eric? What's the
00:51:46
best two season cumulative record we've ever seen? >> That's a great question. I'm only
00:51:52
guessing and I'm gonna say it's a I'm guessing and one of our listeners at
00:51:57
WMoneyball can exit us or tweet at us, however you want to call it. I'm going
00:52:01
to guess it's uh 138 or 139 somewhere around there. Could be it could be as much as 140 like maybe
00:52:11
that the um the Warriors when they won 73 167 or something around there the game before. It's certainly not more
00:52:18
than 140. And I think I have to look exactly at how much OKC won last year, but uh here I can look at it up quickly.
00:52:25
OKC 2024 2025 record. Last year they won 68. Yeah. So if they get to 72, that could well be a record
00:52:37
for the best two year. And certainly I'm not saying it's guaranteed. I'd be
00:52:42
shocked if they don't break the record. You'd agree with this. You'd be shocked
00:52:47
if they don't break the record for the greatest point differential at this point.
00:52:51
>> This point. I mean, I' I'd like to know how there's what schedule they've played
00:52:55
so far. I don't know if it's if it's how balanced it is, how unbalanced it is.
00:52:58
It's also there's a lot of there's a you know, we talked about this on the show
00:53:01
two weeks ago. There's some real trash in the NBA this year. The trash is trash
00:53:06
usual. And so adjusting for that in some way would seem to be appropriate. But >> I think also you have to ask the
00:53:12
question if they're, you know, 70 and five, >> do they play for the record or do they
00:53:18
say, "Look, forget the record. We want to win a second title back to back."
00:53:22
They rest Sheay, they rest Chad Holgrren, they rest Jaylen Jackson. All of a sudden, you and I are playing the
00:53:27
last 10 games of the season. >> I've got to I've got to believe they
00:53:30
they would care a whole lot more about the hardware than the than the one last record. Eric, I've got another Oklahoma
00:53:35
City before we go here in Oklahoma City that kind of connects to you in a way. Eric, you're a good New Yorker. Do you
00:53:40
know who Robert Caro is? >> Who? >> Robert Caro, the biographer. >> I don't.
00:53:46
>> You don't. You should. You You've got some Caroesque characteristics. And you
00:53:50
should definitely know Robert Moses. Here's a New Yorker. Robert Moses. You know who Robert?
00:53:54
>> Robert Moses. >> Okay. So, Carol is Moses's biographer. And then he went on to be a biographer
00:53:59
of Linda Johnson. And he's generally considered the best living biographer, one of the best historian biographers in
00:54:04
US history. And he's got these every 10 years he produces a thousandpage volume.
00:54:10
He's got one on run on Moses. He's got four on OBJ with a fifth to come. And
00:54:15
we're just hoping that he makes the fifth because in he's in his 90s now. Um
00:54:20
is he in his 90s or upper 80s? He's he's getting up there. Anyway, ESPN just
00:54:24
wrote an article about how Sam Prey, general manager of the Oklahoma City Thunder, is a big Robert Carroll fan.
00:54:30
Like he like he's got a real thing about Carol and his biographies. He's
00:54:33
apparently an interesting reader anyway, but he's so much of a fan. And Carol is
00:54:37
like a basketball fan. And so Carol knows that Prey likes his stuff. And so it's just it's my world's coming
00:54:43
together because I teach Carol's books and I read Carol's books and I love Sam
00:54:47
Prey. And ESPN wrote this big honken article this week on Prey and Carol. >> It just makes me love him more. As if I
00:54:54
didn't love Sam Prey enough. >> I'll have to take a look at that. But my
00:54:57
summary of the NBA is not last year. If I told you three years ago, three years ago, the number one teams in the NBA
00:55:04
right now would be OKC and Detroit. [laughter] >> No, I can see I could, you know, you can
00:55:10
almost believe Oklahoma City because they've had so many they've been rebuilding towards this.
00:55:15
>> You know, the Sixers had a ton of draft picks, too, and they haven't made it.
00:55:18
So, but but I think the thing I wanted to just bring up quickly is, you know, we'll talk about this on an entirely
00:55:24
another show is kind of the speed of turnover in certain sports versus others. Like, if I told you next year,
00:55:31
I'll make it up. I don't know who the worst MLB team was. I forget if it was
00:55:34
the White Socks or the Rockies, let's say it's the Rockies, I forget who it
00:55:37
was, who won like barely 40 something games. If I told you they win the title next year, you say absolutely not.
00:55:43
There's no chance. If I told you next year the Giants win the title, you'd
00:55:48
probably still say no chance, right? No chance. >> Well, the San Francisco Giants, they
00:55:54
bounce around pretty reliably. >> I meant the New York Giants. I meant the
00:55:57
football, but probably in the NBA, you know, in a two or threeear stretch, certainly in the NFL, like the if I had
00:56:04
told you two years ago the Patriots may be looking at having the best record in the NFL, I I no
00:56:10
>> Yeah. Still no. >> Yeah. Still no. It's amazing how quickly they and that's why I think in my view
00:56:16
Mike Greybel's the coach of the year. He has to be the coach of the year. >> Yeah, that's reasonable. Utterly
00:56:21
reasonable. And what I mean what a hire he's proven to be so far. And Drake when
00:56:24
Drake May and Drabel, you get a solid coach and a good QB and that's pretty much
00:56:29
>> you're set. You're not quite set, but you're close. Okay, why don't we wrap it
00:56:33
there? That's been a full hour of sports analytics here on Wharton Moneyball.
00:56:38
Thanks to Kevin Cole, our guest in the first half of the show. Thanks to Marissa Raina, our producer, to Dion
00:56:43
Samkins, our associate producer who makes this thing go round. Deep Patel, the big boss lady. And to you guys, the
00:56:49
listeners, thanks for being with us. Come back and join us next time. Between now and then, enjoy your sports.