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Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball
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here on the Wharton podcast network.
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This is Eric Bradler, professor of
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marketing, statistics, and data science
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here at the Wharton School. Some
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combination of myself, Cade Massie, Audi
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Winer, and Shane Jensen are here every
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week on Wharton Moneyball. Um, for me,
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uh, the best part of the last 11 and a
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half years have been our interviews
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with, you know, if you'd like, they're
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now friends, but colleagues that are
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working in industry that are actually
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applying statistics, data science to all
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kinds of interesting sports. Today is a
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returning guest. I I'm going to guess 20
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times he's been on the show, but it
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could be more over the last 11 plus
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years. Well, we're happy to welcome back
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Kevin Cole. Kevin Spider of Unexpected
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Points newsletter Substack if you'd like
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formerly of uh PFF
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and he's an NFL data analyst and also
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I'm sure we've talked to Kevin about
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this before but as a former bond and
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equity analyst. So Kevin, welcome back
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to Wharton Moneyball.
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>> Well, thanks for having me back. I might
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I might take the under on 20. That that
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sounds like rarified air, but I I
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consider myself more of a fan. More of a
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fan than anything.
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>> Neil Kane might be the only one that's a
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20. So there there we go. But either
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way, it's good to have you back on the
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show.
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>> It's good to be back. Like I said, I
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consider myself a fan. More more of a
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fan and an occasional guest and a uh a
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perennial fan.
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>> Ah, well, we appreciate that. Um, so let
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me start with the following. One of the
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things since you sent us some notes
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about one you wanted to talk about. One
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of the the first topic here is one that
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people I think love, which is, you know,
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Kevin, why do we need fancy analytics?
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Can't we just look at the win loss
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record of teams? You know, it's kind of
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like in baseball. Can't I just look at
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someone's batting average and see who's
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best? You know, why do I need this war
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and all these other fancy stats? So,
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what can you first explain why you think
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we need something different between
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record and team strength? And then
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secondly, which teams do you see so far
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this year that there's the biggest
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disconnect?
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>> Yeah. Yeah. You know, I I get a little
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lesson in public perception versus maybe
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what my numbers are telling me. Every
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every week I put out my my power
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rankings. You got to put out the power
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rankings. So, every week I do this and
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you know, I'm trolling a little bit
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because I call them my 100% correct, the
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only 100% correct power rankings that
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come out each week.
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>> You mean in an anchor man type of way,
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like 100% of the time they're right half
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the time?
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>> Yeah. Yeah. 60% of the time it works
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every time for my from from my rankings
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and that would be pretty good in the
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betting market, right? Um so yeah, I
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mean I think it's really just getting at
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an issue that we're all we're all trying
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to discover the truth through prediction
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is is a good way of kind of being able
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to discover the truth. I mean no matter
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no matter who we're talking about here,
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whether it's a an analyst, you know,
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it's it's Dan Orlovski or even if it's
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Stephen A. Smiths. Maybe someone who's
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doing more of the uh the talk radio
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type.
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>> Kevin, we don't use his name on this
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podcast.
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>> You don't?
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>> You [laughter] don't? Oh, I don't know.
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Oh, okay. I I could have used his name,
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but Okay, let's go ahead. Yeah.
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>> Okay. Or or whoever you want to
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interject into there. I mean, at the end
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of the day, I think everyone is making
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at least an implicit prediction on on
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what's going to happen. And if they tell
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you this quarterback is better than this
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other quarterback, I mean, I think
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they're telling you they're probably
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going to perform better. I mean, maybe
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they'll they'll have adjustments to
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that. May, you know, after the fact, I'm
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sure they'll tell you why the guy they
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said was better didn't perform better
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because of the the offensive coordinator
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or the line or other things like that.
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Um, but everyone's kind of making at
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least an implicit prediction. So, it's
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really just translating that explicitly
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in into a prediction. And I think it's
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useful, although it's confusing to some
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people because I think some people view
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the rankings and things like that being
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more like an AP college football type of
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poll in the past where I saw some
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instructions. I was just looking this up
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today for for for AP voters. And you
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know, they're explicitly told that you
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should you should judge by performance.
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So, you know, also kind of known as
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results and you should judge by
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headtohead. You should judge by these
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sort of things. And of course, I'm not
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judging by those things. I mean, those
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are factored in, but they're not going
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to be part of an additional adjustment
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for trying to figure out how good these
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teams are going to be in the future. And
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I think that's where the disconnect
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that's where the disconnect comes is
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number one and kind of how people feel
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like is deserving or not, a sense of
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fairness maybe as to where they may be
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ranked. And then the second thing is
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probably just overvaluing what's
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happened win and loss-wise because it's
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hard it's hard to differentiate after
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you watch a game who was better or not
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based upon anything but the final
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result. So Kevin, before I turn things
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back over to Kade to lead this
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discussion, let me just ask you. So do
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you view your power ranking on
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unexpected points? Do you view it as
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something that's backwardlooking, which
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is how much did team A perform compared
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to team B, or do you look it as more
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forwardlooking, like if team A and team
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B were to play each other in the future,
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this would be something about the
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expected outcome? How do you how do you
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see it?
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>> Yeah. No, it's it's the latter. So it's
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it's it's done the same way that you
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know um Massie Peabody and others have
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have kind of the standard formula which
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is the expected point differential
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versus an average team on a neutral
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field. Um and then and then you build
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the rankings there. And what's also
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funny about the rankings because when
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you just without the context of these
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team strength numbers that are
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underlying them if someone is ranked you
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know 17th versus 12th it's like oh my
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god I can't believe it. where the
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reality is we're talking about maybe
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less than a half a point difference in
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team strength that could flip oh so
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easily. So that that's another it's kind
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of a comical thing uh to put into it.
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But I have to put I have to put out the
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rankings every week because that the
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people love it. And plus, you know, it
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gets me like 10 bucks from X or
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something like that. So I'll take it.
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>> The first part of my question just so
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and then I'll turn it over to Kate would
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be so which teams do you think there
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might be a disconnect between you know
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what's I don't know maybe you don't
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think the Broncos are any good. they're
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10 and two or whatever they are and
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maybe their team strength is lower than
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that or you know I don't know the
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Jaguars eight and four maybe they're not
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actually very good. I don't know what
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which teams do you see the disconnect
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between?
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>> Yeah. Yeah. I think I I I hear a little
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bit more uh noise from people who who
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believe their teams are are underrated
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and um you named two of the top teams. I
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mean, the Panthers I mean, the Panthers
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may be the the number one team right now
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for people coming after me because I
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didn't really move them that much based
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upon a win against the the Rams who
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according to my rankings are actually
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the best the best team in the NFL. Um,
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and that kind of goes that goes another
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layer and I try to link to that and
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explain in my write up when I'm talking
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about these teams about how I actually
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analyze each individual game. And it was
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one of the bigger swings of saying the
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Rams lost by three points. But I I put
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together this thing called adjusted
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scores where I try to make a bunch of
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adjustments based upon um you know the
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the variance in high leverage
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situations, the things that have less
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less stickiness like special teams play
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or fumble recoveries or things like
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that. And I actually had the Rams being
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10 points better which is really a huge
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a huge shift. So, so again, they're
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looking at this and in their assessment
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week over week, what should be happening
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is Panthers won against a great team,
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yes, at home, but against a great team
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by three points. And my assessment week
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over week is um at home the Panthers
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really kind of lost by 10 points and and
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and that that's a big loss for me
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because again, I would be kind of
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stripping out some of these high
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variance things. So, so very often if a
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team wins by 20 or 25 points, my my
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calculation is is not that big because
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normally, you know, winning or winning
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by that much is a combination of two
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things. It's normally good luck and and
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good play. So, so, so, so that's the
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disconnect basically in people's minds
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between between what they're thinking
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and then what my rankings are saying.
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>> So, uh, with all that talk about
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deserving versus power rankings, I
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thought you were talking college
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football. I was so excited. I thought,
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"Wow, Eric shocked me by not only Eric
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>> off off air." Kevin and I decided we
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were only going to talk NFL.
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>> Yeah, exactly. Well, that was the that
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was the intention of bringing Kevin on.
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And I've just rarely felt more um in
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need of a Kevin Cole to explain to me
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the the NFL. I think there's some
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combination between I've been a little
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distracted and also this is a
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nonsensical season. Um, I mean, I was
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sitting with someone in sports, a
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different sport last night and he asked
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me who, so who's the best team in the
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NFL? I'm like, I have no idea. I don't
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think anybody does have any idea. Um,
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he's like, is it Seattle? I'm like, can
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Sam Darnold be quarterbacking the best
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team in the NFL? I I kind of doubt it,
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but Kevin Cole's going to tell me
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tomorrow. I'm going to understand better
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at the end of that conversation. So, can
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you clarify? You just did a whole bunch
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of methodology and throw clearing. I
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just want to know, Kevin, who's the best
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team in the NFL?
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Yeah. Well, I mean, I have the Rams is
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the best team in the NFL, so that points
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back to to to what I was saying where it
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being off by what happened last week
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versus what had happened in the past.
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Um, and a decent gap between them and a
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number of teams in a, you know, second
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tier or a 1B sort sort of tier after
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that. And, and I agree with you. I
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although I think I think we're we're
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probably biased to thinking this more so
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than what it is every year to be like
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whoa it's crazy what's going on this
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year just because you know we're we're
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always late of course updating uh what's
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happening based upon the evidence but I
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do think there is a lot going on this
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season where I was looking at my
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preseason rankings versus win loss
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records right now um and it is a
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dramatic difference. I mean, there's
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none of the teams that are that are up
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at the top with these nine wins and over
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teams um were really top five teams for
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me coming into the season. Um but it
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doesn't but but then if I compare that
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to my go forward rankings, there are
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some of these top five teams who were
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still really really near the top. So it
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kind of shows you how that disconnect
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between results and and team strength.
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>> Okay, but hold on. probably have your
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prior still in your go forward
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prediction predict predict power rate
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>> very very very little only about 5%
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right now in in in what's in what's
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going forward so it's really more so
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that the the performance and I think I I
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especially mentioned to you guys
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pre-show talking about the Chiefs I
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think Chiefs are just are probably the
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most interesting because there's no
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nothing we could count on more than the
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than the Chiefs being good but it is one
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of those things where by most metrics
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they're better a lot better than they
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were last year and they had um 11 wins
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at this point in the season last
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>> Yeah. But you know the stat also Kevin
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how many one score or close games they
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won last year and this year if you don't
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want to count outcomes if you want to
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count true strength we can't count
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outcomes and they won every close game
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last year. I think they they set the NFL
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record for the most close game wins in a
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row and this year I think they're one
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and six or they've lost every close
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game.
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>> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. The one score game
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and then and then also last year I mean
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I I wasn't very high on them going into
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the season. actually had them fifth
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coming in coming into to this season
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which is relatively low than than where
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they may have been perceived. So they've
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outperformed in some ways by
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expectations but their record is a lot
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worse than than you would have thought.
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>> So can you give it walk us through your
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power rankings um a little bit. I'm I'm
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digging through your substack. I hope I
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hope you were you were you were promoted
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sufficiently because Kevin runs
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>> I promote I promoted I promoted the
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substack to start with. So give us give
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us tears or give us something help us
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consume the NFL with some with some more
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sense. Though I think one one question
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is you know could we look at
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if if the scores if the outcomes have
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been so unrelated to under underlying
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power then that should we should be able
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to operationalize that in some way. So
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at this point in the season what measure
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could we use to ask is it truly more
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volatile and unexpected this year than
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typical? you know, I tried to figure
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that out and sometimes it's hard to some
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when you're looking at things in in in
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aggregate or across the entire sample.
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Um, a lot of what is driving the kind
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again, this is what you're trying to do
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a lot in Seth. You're trying to kind of
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like a a feeling in a way, a theoretical
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feeling, and then trying to figure out,
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well, what's the right, you know, target
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variable for figuring out
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>> that's the business we three are in.
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Well, well, what that feeling is, but
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then often what we're doing though is
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you're looking at the sample of 32
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teams. So, I looked at it, I said,
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"Okay, let's look at how much is point
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differential." Because I I I I I I
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mention that sometimes is a very easy
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intuitive type of stat to say, you know,
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the Broncos are ninth, I think, in in in
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best point differential this year. So,
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that kind of aligns better with where I
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have them versus where their their
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record may say they are. So, I looked at
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point differential versus wins at this
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point in the season versus prior
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seasons. Pretty similar. Like, there's
00:13:14
not really um a big difference there.
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So, then I said, "Okay, well, let's look
00:13:18
at, you know, offensive efficiency.
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Let's look at offensive passing
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efficiency. Let's look at all these
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different things that I think might be
00:13:25
um normally the drivers of performance."
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And everything seemed pretty good. So, I
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think it's more a team by team
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um surprise that are that that's going
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on. and maybe the marquee team names
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that are not um withstanding some of
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this variance this year that we've seen
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in the past. So if we look at like the
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>> Can we ask a quick question just like
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wouldn't I mean maybe we're just maybe
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we're taking this for granted but it'd
00:13:51
be nice to operationalize it
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>> the relation between your power rankings
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and the
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this the realized score differential to
00:14:00
this point. So that would be less
00:14:04
related this year if our intuition is
00:14:06
right. That should be that correlation
00:14:07
right now as we sit here today be lower
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than it is in
00:14:11
>> No, that's correct. No, that that that
00:14:13
is a bit lower. Um but I was also
00:14:16
interested in maybe if just the results
00:14:18
were were weird if there was more of
00:14:20
this um you know one score game type of
00:14:23
situation that's flipping a different
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way. Um, so I think from from that
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perspective, um, it's really that the
00:14:30
the the top teams in the NFL, let's say
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since 2020, which is kind of when Josh
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Allen had his breakout and everything,
00:14:37
it's probably the the teams with the
00:14:38
most wins are the, you know, the Chiefs,
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the the Eagles, the Ravens, the Bills
00:14:45
are are right up there. Um, so if you
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look at all all those and then you start
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to get into some other teams, the
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Packers are up there, but that's a lot
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of Aaron Rogers sorts of years that are
00:14:54
in there. The Bengals are kind of wroy
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are are extremely good. So they fit into
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that into that bucket.
00:15:01
>> The NFC South champion for the last four
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years.
00:15:05
>> Yes. Well, again, you have some Tom
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Brady in there, I guess, a little bit a
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little bit a little bit too. So, um
00:15:10
maybe I'm putting them aside as as being
00:15:12
as being seen on that same sort of
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level, but I think those teams have just
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generally been disappointing either by
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records or if they have decent results
00:15:22
like the Eagles. I don't think anyone I
00:15:24
mean every other week, you know, they
00:15:25
want Nick Serriani fired for for even if
00:15:28
their their record seems to be okay.
00:15:29
There there's a there's a high level of
00:15:31
dissatisfaction I think with maybe how
00:15:33
those teams are doing. And then on the
00:15:34
flip side, you have this quarterback
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driver for a few teams. One, the
00:15:41
secondyear breakout of of Drake May
00:15:43
where I think there's still some
00:15:44
disbelief as to whether or not that's
00:15:46
real despite the fact that I think he's
00:15:47
leading MVP odds at this point because
00:15:49
of the strength of schedule. There's
00:15:50
some you'll see we'll see about that.
00:15:52
they're going to play the Bills and the
00:15:53
Ravens coming out of the buy. So, I
00:15:55
think that'll maybe answer some
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questions there. And then Sam Darnold
00:15:59
going to Seattle, which is pro just, you
00:16:02
know, excellent results there. I think
00:16:04
DVOA and maybe if you have if you talk
00:16:05
to Aaron Shots, they might have the the
00:16:07
Seahawks being the best team in in the
00:16:09
NFL so far this year. And then Daniel
00:16:12
Jones going to the Colts is another team
00:16:14
where their results have been really
00:16:16
really good. So, it's not a fluky thing
00:16:19
um for that those teams are playing so
00:16:21
well, but it does seem fluky versus what
00:16:23
we expected in the preseason. What we
00:16:25
expect from veteran quarterbacks who
00:16:26
have been around a long time where in
00:16:29
the case of Darnold, this is the second
00:16:31
year of his kind of massive breakout
00:16:34
that he had in in Minnesota. But still,
00:16:36
you don't normally see see that sort of
00:16:38
thing for a veteran quarterback elite
00:16:40
type of play. Sometimes you get above
00:16:41
average, but this type of elite play is
00:16:43
a little bit beyond what we're
00:16:44
expecting.
00:16:46
Just thinking maybe Kevin building on
00:16:47
what you just said maybe one interesting
00:16:50
measure of uncertainty would be you know
00:16:53
how much deviation is there from the
00:16:54
prior like we know what the prior was
00:16:58
and like if I had told you after week 13
00:17:03
here's the division leaders the Patriots
00:17:06
the Ravens the Jaguars the Broncos maybe
00:17:11
the Eagles the Bears maybe the Bucks the
00:17:14
Rams maybe Half of those you would have
00:17:16
said yes. Maybe the other half you would
00:17:18
have said no. So I like this idea if you
00:17:20
think about it. What is the posterior?
00:17:25
It's the deviation from the prior. And
00:17:28
so we could think about, you know, let's
00:17:31
compare today versus the prior. There's
00:17:34
lots of measures of differences between
00:17:36
distributions. And we could just say the
00:17:38
kind of surprise of a season or the
00:17:40
uncertainty could be some measure of the
00:17:43
distance like how much updating has
00:17:46
happened. And you could call that a
00:17:47
measure of uncertainty. It's not a bad
00:17:49
way to think about it. You could call it
00:17:50
a measure of learning. Also,
00:17:53
>> the one one
00:17:55
it one that thing that's it's
00:17:57
confounding or not capturing is if it's
00:18:00
just the prior and the posterior on your
00:18:03
power ranking, you're not capturing all
00:18:06
the volatility in the one loss records.
00:18:08
And so you might play with the power the
00:18:10
you might play with like some some some
00:18:14
probability of success because that's
00:18:16
what's really different than expected.
00:18:18
Even if you're power even because of
00:18:20
because of the results even good teams I
00:18:22
mean the Chiefs might still be one of
00:18:24
the best two or three teams in the AFC
00:18:25
but they might not make the playoffs and
00:18:27
odds must be against them making the
00:18:28
playoffs at this point. Yeah, I mean
00:18:30
they, for example, they have the fourth
00:18:33
best point differential right now in the
00:18:35
AFC, better than the Broncos and
00:18:37
Chargers in their own division. Um, the
00:18:40
only teams that are better are the
00:18:42
Patriots, the Colts, and barely the
00:18:45
Bills.
00:18:46
>> Yeah. And Kevin, where do you have them
00:18:47
on your power records?
00:18:49
>> I mean, I still have uh I have I still
00:18:51
have the Chiefs at number four. I mean,
00:18:53
I had him at number two going into this
00:18:55
this last week. So, trust me, I'm
00:18:57
hearing about that. Um um also so I from
00:19:00
my investigation that I've that I've
00:19:02
done and again I haven't done enough
00:19:03
investigation the kind of variance of
00:19:07
results versus
00:19:09
observed strength this this season just
00:19:13
from what they've done. Forget about
00:19:14
priors or anything else. I don't think
00:19:16
there's anything there's actually
00:19:17
nothing really there's nothing really
00:19:18
there. I think it's just happened to
00:19:20
certain teams. Now, no, has it happened
00:19:22
to certain teams like the Chiefs that we
00:19:23
notice a lot. Whereas, if it happened to
00:19:25
another team that we didn't really
00:19:27
believe in, if they were
00:19:28
underperforming, we it wouldn't register
00:19:30
because we would say, "Oh, well, you
00:19:32
know, they're underperforming." Or if
00:19:33
you're underperforming in a way, we're
00:19:34
not expected to be a top five team, but
00:19:36
if you're expected to be, you know, the
00:19:38
eighth team and you end up the 18th team
00:19:39
or something like that, that it doesn't
00:19:41
register as much. So, so I think that's
00:19:43
sticking out. And then the other part
00:19:44
that we we've discussed, I do think
00:19:46
there is this this disconnect between on
00:19:50
a week- toeek basis of what the power
00:19:52
rankings my power rankings would be
00:19:54
versus the results in particular um the
00:19:57
the the Chiefs when for it comes to win
00:19:59
loss. But then also again these
00:20:00
quarterback situations, Seattle, New
00:20:02
England, and and Indianapolis really
00:20:05
jumping up in a way that that you know
00:20:08
was was probably if of any team it was
00:20:10
probably the Patriots where you would
00:20:11
have that in their range of outcomes a
00:20:13
little bit more because of the you'd
00:20:14
have a higher uncertainty with what's
00:20:16
going on with the quarterbacks, but
00:20:18
probably not as much elsewhere despite
00:20:20
the fact that Sam Darnold had a had a
00:20:21
pretty good year last year.
00:20:22
>> Kevin, are you buying or selling the um
00:20:25
Texans? I'm telling you, I saw that
00:20:28
almost all of that game they just played
00:20:29
against the Colts. And I mean, they're
00:20:33
the number one defense in the NFL by so
00:20:35
many different measures. Um, they're now
00:20:38
seven and five. I think I think they
00:20:40
were one and four at one point or one
00:20:41
and I don't know. They've won four
00:20:43
straight. That much? I know. Are you
00:20:44
buying the Texans or you're not? You're
00:20:46
just uh No, they're about where they
00:20:47
should be.
00:20:49
I mean, I I think they're about where
00:20:51
they should be, but it's it's hard when
00:20:53
you have, you know, rules that are or
00:20:57
assumptions that are just baked into
00:20:59
everything. And one of the assumptions
00:21:00
is always going to be, you know, fading
00:21:02
defense a little bit more versus offense
00:21:04
and a go forward type of of projection
00:21:08
that so that makes it a bit more
00:21:09
difficult. I mean, I have them being a
00:21:11
slightly
00:21:13
above average sort of team, and I know
00:21:16
that probably doesn't comport with where
00:21:18
people see them right now. Um, for for a
00:21:20
couple different reasons. U one, they've
00:21:22
had some, you know, higher profile wins
00:21:24
and the recency is factored in to mine,
00:21:27
but not nearly as much. That was my
00:21:29
question.
00:21:30
>> Let's stay with that division because
00:21:32
it's a good race and you have fair
00:21:35
questions about three of the four teams.
00:21:37
So, they're one game behind both the
00:21:39
Colts and the Jaguars. What do you think
00:21:41
about those two teams? And in the end,
00:21:43
with five games left, what do you expect
00:21:45
to happen in that division?
00:21:48
>> Well, so the the Jags I have being
00:21:51
slightly worse than the Texans and then
00:21:53
the Colts I have being pretty materially
00:21:56
better um of a team. And again, it's
00:21:59
going to be looking at recency maybe in
00:22:01
the opposite direction where do you know
00:22:04
when the Colts were rip roaring to start
00:22:07
to start the season, especially
00:22:08
offensively if you were going to kind of
00:22:10
plot out, you know, expected points
00:22:13
added per play offensively,
00:22:16
even with adjustments for for strength
00:22:18
of schedule and things like that. The
00:22:20
Colts were almost head and shoulders
00:22:21
above the rest of the NFL when we were
00:22:22
four or five weeks into the season. and
00:22:25
now they've faded back to still be
00:22:26
pretty good, to still be, you know,
00:22:28
easily a top 10 team as far as that's
00:22:30
concerned, but not nearly as good. So, I
00:22:33
think I think for for me, I'm probably
00:22:36
still weighting those early performances
00:22:38
higher than what other perceptions may
00:22:41
be on that. They still have a very
00:22:42
strong like, again, if we want to just
00:22:44
simplify it, like yards per play, I
00:22:46
think they're still number one in the
00:22:47
NFL right now um for what they've been
00:22:50
able to to do with with um with Daniel
00:22:52
Jones. So, so I'm a bit higher on them.
00:22:54
I would be I would be predicting them to
00:22:56
to go ahead and follow through uh on
00:22:58
winning the division. But, you know,
00:23:01
again, it really just depends on on
00:23:04
whether or not this level of quarterback
00:23:07
performance that we've gotten from
00:23:08
Daniel Jones, if you're putting that in
00:23:10
a bucket with quarterbacks who normally
00:23:12
perform on this level, those
00:23:13
quarterbacks are probably a lot more
00:23:15
reliable for the rest of the season than
00:23:16
Daniel Jones is.
00:23:18
>> This is fun and relevant. So, let's stay
00:23:21
with this schema for a bit. is like, you
00:23:23
know, up to eight times. AFC West,
00:23:26
Broncos and Chargers. Let's let's just
00:23:28
kind of ignore the Chiefs world because
00:23:30
they more or less have to win out and
00:23:31
get some luck somewhere else. But it's I
00:23:34
still don't believe in Bo Knicks. Am I
00:23:35
wrong? I mean, I must be wrong at this
00:23:37
point. No.
00:23:38
>> Um I mean, you can you can have varied
00:23:41
belief, [laughter] I guess, in how much
00:23:44
you are. I mean, I I'm I think he's
00:23:47
proving he's proving more and more that
00:23:49
he could be that he that he is, let's
00:23:52
say, um a franchise quarterback. Now, is
00:23:55
he an elite franchise quarterback? I
00:23:57
would also say he's doing two things at
00:23:58
the same time, which is which they seem
00:24:00
they seem to be um you know, at at odds
00:24:04
with each other, but maybe they're not
00:24:05
really, which is he's proving more and
00:24:07
more that he's not going to be someone
00:24:09
they move on from in a year or two or
00:24:12
three. But he's also proving at least to
00:24:14
me in my numbers you're as he goes on
00:24:15
and on that he's not necessarily going
00:24:17
to be an elite quarterback at the same
00:24:19
point in time which is maybe where where
00:24:21
the disconnect is. You combine that with
00:24:22
a great defense and a good win loss you
00:24:24
know that's where where that can make
00:24:26
the difference right like an average
00:24:27
quarterback with a great defense is
00:24:29
viewed much differently than an average
00:24:30
quarterback with a poor defense.
00:24:32
>> I would be pretty sure to follow up on
00:24:33
Boon Knicks Kevin if I was going to look
00:24:36
at this but if let's pretend the Broncos
00:24:38
win the Super Bowl this year. It's not
00:24:40
impossible the Broncos could win.
00:24:41
>> Definitely not impossible.
00:24:42
>> No, no. They have a great coach. They
00:24:44
have a great defense. They could win the
00:24:46
He wouldn't be the worst quarterback to
00:24:48
ever win the Super Bowl.
00:24:49
>> No, no, not even not even close. Um,
00:24:51
>> that's what I'm saying. So, he's good
00:24:53
enough. I'm just saying he's good enough
00:24:55
to win the Super Bowl with the defense,
00:24:58
the Bronco. Look, Pton Manning was a
00:25:00
worse quarterback when they won the
00:25:02
Super Bowl with him in his se last Super
00:25:04
Bowl. I mean, Pton Manning wasn't any
00:25:06
good at in his last season. I mean, come
00:25:08
on. He was he was he was kind of the
00:25:11
ghost of paid bank at at that point. And
00:25:13
I think I think one thing another thing
00:25:15
that's maybe a little bit more on the
00:25:17
>> you can qu you can have quantitative
00:25:18
measures for it but it's a little bit on
00:25:20
the on the qualitative side with Nicks
00:25:22
is he can move. He can you know he's got
00:25:26
a little gunslingerish sort ofness to
00:25:30
him and he has thrown the ball a lot
00:25:32
like he is his volume is not low. He's
00:25:34
not someone they're hiding as as a
00:25:36
quarterback. And you could say that
00:25:37
their scheme isn't the most uh you know
00:25:40
downfield in that way, BUT IT'S NOT THAT
00:25:42
bad actually. It's not like when they
00:25:43
had Russell Wilson there or something
00:25:44
like that. That type of or so maybe even
00:25:46
a Drew Brees type of scheme. They are
00:25:48
pushing it a little bit. Drew Brees late
00:25:50
career Drew Brees. I don't want to
00:25:51
burmer Drew Brees early in his career.
00:25:54
>> Um
00:25:55
>> so I do think he has those elements
00:25:57
which puts you into the ability to win
00:26:00
in different game states. Um which is
00:26:03
more useful in the playoffs even if you
00:26:04
have a great defense. Sometimes your
00:26:06
great defense is going to be trumped by
00:26:08
an even better offense and you have to
00:26:10
have someone who can throw you out of it
00:26:12
even if they aren't, you know, uh on
00:26:13
some sort of average uh per play metric
00:26:17
that great that they can give you some
00:26:18
upside in those situations.
00:26:20
>> I didn't realize he was so I just looked
00:26:22
he's ranked 20th in QBR. That ain't
00:26:24
good.
00:26:25
>> No, no, no. That never mind.
00:26:28
>> Never mind everything I just said. Bon
00:26:30
Nicks is terrible. [laughter]
00:26:32
>> Well, I don't think he's terrible. I I I
00:26:34
haven't ranked a little bit higher. I
00:26:36
haven't looked a little bit higher, but
00:26:37
you know, by the way, I think that's
00:26:38
fair.
00:26:39
>> He's right next to Jaylen Herz.
00:26:42
>> Well, Jaylen Herz, I mean, Jayen Herds
00:26:43
is making like 90 million a year or
00:26:45
something. So,
00:26:45
>> I'm just saying Jaylen's 19th in in in
00:26:48
QBR.
00:26:48
>> We have Let's Let's ask about a few
00:26:50
other important teams in other
00:26:51
divisions. So, you just w you just went
00:26:53
to one of them. Herds, the Eagles. So
00:26:56
much drama. And where's Kevin Cole on on
00:26:58
this team?
00:27:00
>> I mean, I'm I I I'm relatively low, I
00:27:03
guess. I mean, I have them ranked ninth.
00:27:05
I've had them I I've had them low all
00:27:06
season because they were such a dominant
00:27:08
defense last year without really having
00:27:11
a great offensive resume. Um, and then
00:27:13
they obviously ended up exploding in the
00:27:15
Super Bowl. And I don't know, there's
00:27:17
just nothing they've done this year.
00:27:18
They they had some close wins. One of
00:27:20
the wins against the Rams, you know,
00:27:22
where they I think they won off of
00:27:23
special teams blocks like backtoback
00:27:25
weeks and things and so I've been I've
00:27:29
been in disbelief. I've been lower than
00:27:30
the markets on them considerably. I
00:27:33
think the markets have been, at least in
00:27:35
my opinion, have been giving them a bit
00:27:37
of a boost, an unnatural maybe boost
00:27:40
versus what their numbers say. Just just
00:27:42
so I don't know. I'm still low on
00:27:44
>> unnatural boost. That's a new that's a
00:27:46
new quant phrase I hadn't heard before.
00:27:48
Kevin, uh, if you like offense so much,
00:27:50
maybe you like the Cowboys.
00:27:53
>> I do like the Cowboys. I mean, I have
00:27:55
for for most of the season. And I don't
00:28:00
know, it's it's funny to even see in the
00:28:02
media now. I've seen some things about,
00:28:03
oh, the Cowboys defense is is coming
00:28:05
together. Um, because I always say, you
00:28:08
know, the variance on that side is going
00:28:09
to be is going to be a little bit
00:28:10
higher. So, the Cowboys right now, I
00:28:13
mean, I still don't have them ranked in
00:28:15
the top 10 overall. They're they're
00:28:17
right outside of they're 13th and but
00:28:19
they're pretty close. Like, if they
00:28:20
moved up half a point, they would be up
00:28:22
into up into the top 10 because of that
00:28:24
offensive play that that they've had so
00:28:27
far this year. Um, and in relative to
00:28:31
the Eagles, yeah, they're not that far
00:28:33
away from the Eagles for me in team
00:28:34
strength versus, you know, where some
00:28:36
people would probably have them.
00:28:37
>> Okay. Looking for the best of the NFC.
00:28:40
You've already told us the Rams are your
00:28:41
top your top team. Where where are you
00:28:44
after that? So, it's not from the NFC
00:28:46
East apparently. Where are the Seahawks?
00:28:49
Where are the Packers for you? Are you
00:28:51
still on the Lions at all?
00:28:53
>> Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, I have the the
00:28:55
Packers as being the next best team.
00:28:58
That's a team that it's interesting
00:29:00
because they I mean, they just have good
00:29:02
they have good numbers. They have good
00:29:04
numbers by my by my adjusted scores. You
00:29:07
know, everyone likes to to mock them
00:29:09
when when they don't agree to say, but I
00:29:11
actually have them being better in 11
00:29:12
out of the 12 games so far so far this
00:29:14
year.
00:29:15
>> Let me just say I love the adjusted
00:29:16
score cut. It's absolutely fantastic the
00:29:18
adjusted score concept.
00:29:20
>> No, no, no, no. I I I'm I'm not I I take
00:29:22
it I take it as friendly ribbing because
00:29:25
you know um for because when I'll say it
00:29:28
you know that the team the fan of the
00:29:30
team that won where you say they just
00:29:31
score said they lost they'll say like oh
00:29:33
is this an adjusted this or an adjusted
00:29:34
that they'll they'll like to make jokes
00:29:36
about about about about the different
00:29:38
teams. Um, but I think I think the thing
00:29:40
with the Packers, the disconnect here
00:29:42
seems to be related to to Jordan Love
00:29:45
also, who is first in
00:29:50
for his play involvements this year in
00:29:52
EPA per play. And I know that's a that's
00:29:54
a team stat, but then again, you know,
00:29:55
passing touchdowns is a team stat,
00:29:57
passing yards is a team stat,
00:29:58
everything's a team stat. But even if
00:30:00
you look at PFF grading, I think he's
00:30:01
third in the in the NFL so far this
00:30:03
year. But there are a few people who
00:30:05
would probably point to him being at
00:30:07
that at that level so far. So I I think
00:30:11
he's maybe being discounted because
00:30:13
people have a lot of belief in in Matt
00:30:16
Laflur and everything else that's going
00:30:18
on there because he revived Aaron
00:30:20
Rodgers. And there's always these silly
00:30:23
things that I think that have a a huge
00:30:25
outweighed influence of something like
00:30:27
Malik Willis coming in and playing well
00:30:29
when he's played after looking horrible
00:30:31
as a rookie. But, you know, it's just
00:30:34
one backup quarterback for a handful of
00:30:36
starts can really affect people's views
00:30:38
of of how good someone is as a play
00:30:40
caller. And we just saw with Kevin
00:30:42
O'Connell, who people love and say, "Oh,
00:30:43
he can make anyone good." You know, he
00:30:45
he had a guy who was an undrafted rookie
00:30:47
and didn't look so good this last week.
00:30:49
I think most people I I'm just giving an
00:30:51
opinion here. I mean, they're right what
00:30:52
a half game back, I guess you would call
00:30:55
it, of the best record in the NFC. I
00:30:58
think if the Packers end up behind,
00:31:00
let's say it, let's say they win their
00:31:02
division, but aren't the number one
00:31:04
seed, so they're going to have to win at
00:31:06
home and then they're going to have to
00:31:07
go on the road, let's say, to the Rams,
00:31:09
maybe it's the Eagles, whoever it is, or
00:31:12
Seahawks. I I don't see how they can be
00:31:16
favored. I just don't see how the
00:31:18
Packers the Packers of all the teams
00:31:20
that are there, I almost feel like they
00:31:22
need the number one seed the most.
00:31:24
Besides, you you you lo you skip a game,
00:31:28
like I just don't I don't have any faith
00:31:31
in the Packers on the road in a big
00:31:34
playoff game.
00:31:36
Well, I mean, I would probably I mean,
00:31:38
if I was going to say who needs the
00:31:39
number one seed the most, I guess I
00:31:40
would say the Lions. So, they could be
00:31:41
at the dome and and playing in the dome
00:31:43
the entire time might be might be the
00:31:46
most important. But, I mean, they've
00:31:47
beaten the Lions a couple of times now
00:31:49
already. um you know they had they've
00:31:52
had some struggles in other games but it
00:31:53
was it's really strange because after
00:31:54
that first week of the season I think
00:31:56
with Micah Parsons coming there probably
00:31:57
being a little bit overvalued in his
00:31:59
impact people were you know seeing them
00:32:02
as a Super Bowl contender initially and
00:32:03
then I guess I guess they've had some un
00:32:05
they've had some bad performances on
00:32:06
some some high-profile games but I don't
00:32:08
know but at least by by my numbers
00:32:10
they're still they're still right up
00:32:11
there whereas Detroit is maybe faded a
00:32:13
little bit from from what I was
00:32:14
expecting due to some injuries and some
00:32:16
other things so far this year. I just
00:32:18
want to note that they play Sunday
00:32:20
afternoon with the ba the Bears are
00:32:22
coming to town that the the current
00:32:23
number one seed Chicago Bears going into
00:32:26
Green Bay as six and a half point
00:32:28
underdogs and we know home fields.
00:32:31
>> Yeah, the Bears win that game. I'm going
00:32:32
to I'm going to hear about it. I'm
00:32:33
definitely going to hear about it.
00:32:35
>> Okay, but as I think Mike Sando over the
00:32:37
Athletic, he wrote a column about the
00:32:38
Bears not being probably as good as they
00:32:40
are. It's it's it's kind of too easy at
00:32:41
this point to talk about these different
00:32:43
things, but um the Bears being another
00:32:45
game, right? So they they won a really
00:32:47
high-profile game this last week
00:32:49
>> and their offense stunk and their
00:32:50
passing offense really I mean their
00:32:52
offense but their passing offense really
00:32:54
bad.
00:32:55
>> It wasn't good. Yeah, it was really bad.
00:32:57
>> But there's one play there was one
00:32:58
highlight play that got shown a lot from
00:33:00
from Caleb. And I think Caleb is one of
00:33:02
those guys where the the the the film
00:33:05
hipsters, they love to see that one play
00:33:07
and they say, you know what, if we can
00:33:08
get him to do that 10 times a game, but
00:33:10
the problem is he he he just can't do it
00:33:12
10 times a game. Look, we got a playoff
00:33:14
essentially, in my view, a playoff game
00:33:15
on Thursday night. I was talking about
00:33:16
it just before we came on the air here.
00:33:18
Uh Cowboys Lions Thursday night. That's
00:33:22
I mean, whoever loses that game is
00:33:24
essentially eliminated. I mean, if the
00:33:26
Cowboys are 66 and one, they're not
00:33:28
making the playoffs. If the Lions go to
00:33:30
seven and six, they're probably not
00:33:32
making the playoffs. I'm just saying
00:33:34
that's a highprofile Thursday night
00:33:36
game.
00:33:36
>> Was that Was that just last year that
00:33:38
Dallas went to Detroit and got knocked
00:33:40
out of the playoffs? Is that what am I
00:33:41
thinking about that right?
00:33:44
>> No.
00:33:44
>> Um,
00:33:45
>> one of the last
00:33:46
>> I remember it. I was going to say two
00:33:47
years ago. I didn't think Dallas made
00:33:50
>> Maybe I got it wrong. All right, but we
00:33:51
we're we're taking too much of your
00:33:53
time, but I got to ask you two more
00:33:54
teams. My two favorite teams, Ravens and
00:33:58
Bills.
00:33:58
>> No,
00:33:59
>> I thought you were going to say the
00:33:59
Buccaneers. Sorry.
00:34:00
>> Sorry. Sorry. No, another B two other B
00:34:03
teams. And Eric's got some Bills love
00:34:06
ending. though it's just not as much as
00:34:09
his Bucks or Eagles float.
00:34:11
Kevin, give us some hope.
00:34:13
>> Bills and Ravens.
00:34:16
>> Well, I mean, the Ravens are probably
00:34:19
the other team along with the Chiefs who
00:34:22
has a combination of of as far as their
00:34:25
struggles versus their record versus
00:34:27
where you were expecting them going to
00:34:28
the season being the furthest off. But
00:34:29
it's I think it's been a combination of
00:34:31
Jackson's injury and at least since
00:34:34
returning from injury, he has not been
00:34:37
very good and their defense was
00:34:39
struggling a lot a lot earlier this
00:34:41
year. So, I mean, I still have them as
00:34:43
on the on the outside of the of the top
00:34:46
10, but I'm not sure it's good enough,
00:34:48
honestly, to really get them going to to
00:34:50
to to make a run in the playoffs.
00:34:54
>> Um,
00:34:55
yeah, it's just it's odd that that team
00:34:57
is odd this year. Obviously, the the the
00:34:59
Jackson injury is a huge thing, but just
00:35:01
independently of that, it's just it
00:35:03
seems like so far off expectations. I
00:35:06
don't I
00:35:06
>> Yeah, I mean, if you look at like just
00:35:07
for offensive EPA per play they've had
00:35:09
the last I guess is they've been back
00:35:12
for four weeks, it's just barely
00:35:13
positive, negative, barely positive,
00:35:16
negative. And those and I mean, that's
00:35:17
bad for a team that you're expecting to
00:35:19
have to have a good offense. So, I think
00:35:20
that's one of the problems is you hate
00:35:22
to you hate to point to a few games and
00:35:24
say is something wrong with um but there
00:35:27
there were at least numerous plays
00:35:29
whether it was against a very easy Jets
00:35:31
team or or other offenses that they've
00:35:33
played defense that they played recently
00:35:34
where I don't know it just the things
00:35:36
are not clicking at least for them right
00:35:37
now and we have a smaller sample to
00:35:38
judge Lamar Jackson by this season.
00:35:40
>> So, the Bills did them a favor and
00:35:42
knocked the Steelers off in a pretty
00:35:44
impressive win I would say last weekend.
00:35:46
Um talk about the Bills. Talk about the
00:35:48
Bills. They obviously got a, you know,
00:35:50
they're looking a wild card this year
00:35:51
for the first time in a while. They're
00:35:52
looking at a legitimate conference uh
00:35:54
division um peer that's outpacing them.
00:35:58
What do you think about the Bills?
00:36:00
>> Well, they're an interesting situation
00:36:01
because last year they were they had to
00:36:04
sneak in uh with a with a late run where
00:36:07
fundamentally they were a lot better
00:36:09
than their record at about the same
00:36:11
point. Um I think they're still they're
00:36:13
still a bit better than their record.
00:36:15
And I mean, I've viewed the Bills as,
00:36:19
and maybe I'm I'm off from some people's
00:36:21
perception on this, but you know, again,
00:36:22
since 2020 when Allen had his thirdyear
00:36:26
breakout till till now, as being the
00:36:29
second best team in the NFL overall,
00:36:31
despite the fact that they never made
00:36:32
the Super Bowl because the Chiefs make
00:36:34
it every single year, no matter how well
00:36:36
Josh Allen seems to play in some of
00:36:38
those games. And Josh Allen as, you
00:36:40
know, I'm not sure if people saw Patrick
00:36:42
Mahomes as as in his own tier, but I I I
00:36:45
think I still do at this point as being
00:36:46
the best quarterback in the NFL, but if
00:36:48
anyone's approaching him, it's to me
00:36:49
it's Josh Allen. when you have kind of
00:36:51
that history of success as a team and
00:36:53
you have that level of quarterback and I
00:36:55
think I think he can probably turn it on
00:36:59
or off a little bit more than what some
00:37:02
what some others can do because of his
00:37:04
ability to do every I mean he can he can
00:37:06
he can be in a shootout or he can you
00:37:09
know grind out um quarterback design
00:37:12
runs all all day long if if he wants to
00:37:14
do it. He's now been performing well in
00:37:16
a short passing yak offense and he used
00:37:19
to chuck the ball, you know, 30 yards
00:37:21
down the field sometimes ill advisedly
00:37:23
uh in the past. So, I don't know. I I
00:37:25
think he's just on that level where I'm
00:37:27
always going to be backing them as as a
00:37:30
top top-notch team if they make the
00:37:32
playoffs.
00:37:33
>> Look, the tough thing for Bills or
00:37:35
anybody that's in that seventh spot in
00:37:37
the AFC is to make the Super Bowl,
00:37:40
you're probably going to have to win at
00:37:41
Denver and at Patriots. And that's not
00:37:43
going to be trivial to do. It's not
00:37:45
trivial for any seven seed to make the
00:37:47
Super Bowl, but I'm just saying um those
00:37:50
are two strongish teams and it w it will
00:37:53
not be easy.
00:37:54
>> I'm with Kevin. You you you if you have
00:37:56
to back some team in those situations,
00:37:58
you want to back a team with a proven
00:37:59
quarterback and Josh Allen's about as
00:38:01
proven as we have at this stage. Okay.
00:38:04
Uh in in just 30 seconds, if you had to
00:38:07
put chips on three teams, your life
00:38:08
depends on getting the Super Bowl
00:38:11
winner. Which three teams you got?
00:38:14
>> Super Bowl winner. Um, okay. Well,
00:38:17
that's gonna we're gonna have to factor
00:38:18
in, you know, record and
00:38:20
>> for sure. Yes. How good I I think these
00:38:24
teams actually are at this point. I
00:38:25
mean, it's a weird situation where the
00:38:27
the the NFC has been performing a little
00:38:30
bit better. Um, but I still think the
00:38:32
AFC could be a harder path if these
00:38:34
teams end up end up making the playoffs.
00:38:36
So, it would probably be like multiple
00:38:40
teams out of the the NFC. So, uh the
00:38:44
Rams and probably the Packers next. Um
00:38:49
and then
00:38:51
I probably take the the I guess I guess
00:38:53
I would go with the Bills before
00:38:54
flipping back and just off of record.
00:38:56
And you know, you never know what could
00:38:58
happen in another difficult place to
00:38:59
play is Seattle. You never know. Let's
00:39:01
go with Sam Darnold after that and say
00:39:03
he's he's already got he's got the
00:39:04
record and maybe he's just crazy enough
00:39:06
to to get his team to the Super Bowl.
00:39:08
>> Okay. Well, one of the things you're
00:39:09
telling us is you like you like three
00:39:11
teams out of the NFC and you just damn
00:39:13
near put all your chips on getting one
00:39:14
of those and it'd be Rams, Seahawks, and
00:39:16
Packers not in that order. Rams,
00:39:18
Packers, Seahawks. Interesting, fun.
00:39:20
Well, I I I just think if you know if
00:39:22
the if the Ravens or the Chiefs make it
00:39:25
and the Bills are in there, um you're
00:39:29
going to have some stiff competition to
00:39:32
get out. Even if you have a strong
00:39:34
record, like let's say you're the
00:39:35
Patriots or the Broncos or someone like
00:39:37
that, you're going to have a pretty
00:39:38
tough time. I I think and if they all
00:39:40
make it in there, then then it's just
00:39:42
stacked um as far as the difficulty of
00:39:44
of getting out of that situation.
00:39:46
Whereas if you can if you're the Rams or
00:39:48
you're the Seahawks or you're the
00:39:49
Packers and you get one of those top
00:39:51
seeds, I think you could have a more
00:39:53
comfortable uh trip through the
00:39:55
playoffs.
00:39:55
>> Yep. Like it. Kevin, thanks for the
00:39:57
time, man. Really appreciate it. Y'all
00:39:59
go track him down. Kevin Cole,
00:40:01
Unexpected Points, Substack. Fantastic
00:40:03
read on sports analytics, especially on
00:40:05
the NFL. Kevin Cole, thanks for the
00:40:07
time, man. Good to see you.
00:40:08
>> Good to see you guys, too. Thanks so
00:40:10
much.
00:40:10
>> Come back and join us after the break.
00:40:12
>> All right.
00:40:14
>> Welcome back. Welcome back to Wharton
00:40:16
Moneyball. Welcome back to the second
00:40:18
half of this week's show. A full hour on
00:40:20
Sports Analytics coming to you on the
00:40:22
Wharton podcast network. This is Kade
00:40:24
Massie back in the host chair after yet
00:40:26
another technology issue at the top of
00:40:28
the show. Eric sliding in gracefully
00:40:31
kicking us off last quarter
00:40:33
announcement. PSA PSA for especially my
00:40:35
team members. I'm on a brand new laptop
00:40:37
as of two hours ago. I have technology
00:40:39
that wasn't produced pre- pandemic and
00:40:42
maybe that will help with the
00:40:43
cooperation with our platform. We are
00:40:45
just off the line with Kevin Cole.
00:40:48
Kevin, bring us up to speed. Very
00:40:50
helpful to me on the NFL side. We've got
00:40:53
about 15 minutes to run through the rest
00:40:55
of the sporting world. Top up. First
00:40:58
thing, let's acknowledge regular season
00:41:00
over in college football except for Army
00:41:02
Navy. We've got some conference
00:41:04
championship games dead ahead this
00:41:06
weekend. We have a little bit of drama
00:41:08
around the playoff seeds, the bracket,
00:41:10
who's going to be in. There's not a lot
00:41:12
of drama, but there's some there's a few
00:41:13
slots to be.
00:41:14
>> I have a question. I do have a question
00:41:15
for you about that. Let's imagine that
00:41:17
in the um SEC championship game. Okay.
00:41:20
Not hard to believe Georgia beats
00:41:22
Alabama. Let's say that happens.
00:41:24
Alabama's now a three- loss team. So, do
00:41:28
they count that? Like we've talked about
00:41:31
like there are a bunch of two loss teams
00:41:33
that might say, "Wait a second, Bama's
00:41:35
lost three." What happens if Georgia
00:41:38
beats Alabama?
00:41:39
>> We don't we don't have enough track
00:41:40
record to really know, much less um
00:41:43
track record with this committee because
00:41:44
committees change year to year.
00:41:46
>> Um there's plenty of argument that you
00:41:50
shouldn't be penalized for making a
00:41:52
conference championship and losing. And
00:41:54
I think that's probably the the standard
00:41:57
expectation. But if a team is panced and
00:42:00
embarrassed and shown to be not what we
00:42:01
thought they were, the committee has the
00:42:03
right to revise. So I don't think that's
00:42:06
going to happen. But I sus I mean I
00:42:07
think if they got panced, there's some
00:42:09
chance, but mostly no. And I don't think
00:42:11
they should. I don't think they should
00:42:12
be punished for making the SEC
00:42:13
championship game.
00:42:14
>> I mean, I'm f I'm fine with a three loss
00:42:16
team making the playoffs if that you
00:42:19
know.
00:42:20
>> How about I got a three I got a three
00:42:21
loss team for you.
00:42:22
>> Well, I got Yeah. Well, [laughter]
00:42:24
I just forget. You'll you'll correct me.
00:42:26
Did Texas play Alabama this year?
00:42:28
>> No. Uh they they they played and lost to
00:42:31
Ohio State and they played and lost to
00:42:32
Georgia and critically vitally for them.
00:42:35
>> No, I know they beat Texas Tech or
00:42:37
whoever the last week or whatever.
00:42:38
>> Texas&M and you know Texas Tech haven't
00:42:41
played Texas Tech. They beat&m uh&m.
00:42:43
>> We don't need to talk about Texas right
00:42:45
now. What is notable Eric? You like
00:42:47
chaos. I'll give you this isn't chaos,
00:42:49
but you'll like the story.
00:42:50
>> All right. Give it to me. Yeah. Duke
00:42:51
Duke has five losses, but by various
00:42:56
tiebreaker shenanigans have made it into
00:42:59
the ACC championship game against UVA.
00:43:02
And the rule isn't that the four power
00:43:06
conferences champions make it and then
00:43:08
the the rest the group of five the best
00:43:10
of the group of five. It's the top
00:43:13
whatever top what I've lost my numbers.
00:43:16
It's the top
00:43:17
>> five top five rated conference champions
00:43:21
make it. And um there's some chance that
00:43:25
if Duke So Duke's a three and a half
00:43:27
point underdog. UVA already beat him
00:43:28
once this year. Duke's a three and a
00:43:29
half point underdog. That's not that
00:43:31
much. Duke could win. Duke could be a
00:43:32
five loss champion of the ACC and be
00:43:36
lower rated than two group of five or
00:43:39
group of six champ conference group of
00:43:41
five conference champions. So, it's
00:43:43
possible that that ACC wouldn't have a a
00:43:45
representative. Now, I've got your eyes
00:43:46
open. Now, now I've got your
00:43:48
>> I knew about that. I did know about
00:43:50
that. I knew that it was no longer It
00:43:52
wasn't that every uh group of five
00:43:54
school like the ACC may have no
00:43:56
representative and I would be fine by
00:43:59
that. I It means that I assume you mean
00:44:01
like Tain could be ranked higher.
00:44:03
>> Well, Tain Tain would I believe be
00:44:06
ranked higher um if they win their game
00:44:10
against North Texas. So, the in North
00:44:12
Texas. Whoever wins that game,
00:44:14
>> North Texas two-lane winner is going to
00:44:15
be higher. The question is whether James
00:44:17
Madison, so we need James Madison to
00:44:19
win, seriously, James Madison to win and
00:44:22
Duke to be like unimpressive in their
00:44:24
win over UVA and then we're going to get
00:44:26
a no ACC playoff. That would be
00:44:30
glorious. The other thing that possibly
00:44:31
could screw things up, if you you who
00:44:33
like chaos, is if BYU, who's a 12 and a
00:44:37
half point underdog to Texas Tech, if
00:44:39
BYU wins, that'll be a classic
00:44:42
bid stealer like the like the NCAA
00:44:44
that's like the March Madness bid
00:44:46
Steelers where a team that otherwise
00:44:47
wouldn't get in gets the conference
00:44:50
champion ticket and Tech is Texas Tech
00:44:52
in no matter what. And so that would
00:44:54
knock out an atlarge power five team if
00:44:57
they did that.
00:44:58
>> Wow. So, just to be clear, that could
00:45:00
knock out a Notre Dame as an example.
00:45:02
>> Yeah. And the the ones on the edge are
00:45:04
kind of Notre Dame, Alabama, Oklahoma. I
00:45:06
don't know who's the least ranked of
00:45:08
those.
00:45:08
>> And just to be clear, if BYU, just to my
00:45:11
Am I correct that Texas Tech, did they
00:45:14
lose recently?
00:45:15
>> No. Tech lost first half of the season
00:45:17
to Arizona State.
00:45:18
>> Okay. First half of the season. Okay.
00:45:19
So, if if from some shocking way they
00:45:22
get beaten by two scores, they're going
00:45:24
anyway. Tech's in. Tech Tech can't knock
00:45:28
themselves out of this. I don't think
00:45:29
they can't knock themselves out. Well,
00:45:31
>> it would be amazing if I don't even What
00:45:33
are they in the big Is they still called
00:45:34
a Big What are they in now? The Big 12?
00:45:36
[laughter]
00:45:36
>> Yes, the Big 12.
00:45:37
>> Oh, is BYU BYU's in the Big 12?
00:45:40
>> Yeah, they're both
00:45:41
>> whatever. Whatever conference they're
00:45:42
in. That would be shocking if two We
00:45:46
There had been times, Kate, earlier in
00:45:47
the season, we're talking about are any
00:45:48
Big 12 teams getting in. We could get
00:45:51
two Big 12 teams. No ACC, no ACC team.
00:45:55
That's right. That's right. You can get
00:45:57
two what you want. You want two Big 12.
00:45:59
You want BYU, you want Duke to win in a,
00:46:02
you know, fumble recovery at the end of
00:46:03
the game and then you want James Madison
00:46:05
to blow out whoever they play. They're
00:46:07
big favorites, by the way. Um, and then
00:46:09
so you'd have BYU, Texas Tech, two lane,
00:46:12
and uh James Madison, but nobody from
00:46:15
the AC.
00:46:16
>> Beautiful. And by the way, are IU and
00:46:18
Ohio State playing for the one seat?
00:46:22
>> Uh, yeah, absolutely. Yeah, that's
00:46:24
that's that's true.
00:46:26
>> Okay.
00:46:27
>> Um,
00:46:27
>> nothing really to root for there. I
00:46:29
mean, it doesn't really it's not a buy.
00:46:30
I mean, the first four teams got a buy
00:46:32
and both these teams
00:46:34
>> Well, it's another question. No, no,
00:46:36
>> they're probably both going to get a
00:46:38
buy.
00:46:39
>> It's no longer remember last year, I
00:46:40
forget who it was, like the 18th ranked
00:46:42
team got a buy. That's gone now. It's
00:46:44
the top four ranked team. So, I both
00:46:46
these teams are getting buys. Okay. So,
00:46:48
so they're not I mean, they're playing
00:46:50
for a lot. They're still playing for a
00:46:51
Big 10 championship, but they're not
00:46:53
playing for that much as far as
00:46:57
>> it's interesting, Eric. That's That's
00:46:58
exactly right. And that's a fair take.
00:47:00
And it's similar. It's similar with the
00:47:02
SEC. It's not It's not as It's not as
00:47:05
cut and dry, but these they you kind of
00:47:07
have to care about the champ the
00:47:09
conference championships for themselves
00:47:11
to care much about these games other
00:47:13
than those Big 10 teams haven't played a
00:47:16
lot. I mean, they haven't played a lot
00:47:18
of competition. And so it's kind of a
00:47:20
is, you know, are they both real? Are
00:47:22
they both as good as we think?
00:47:23
>> Let me ask you let me ask you another
00:47:24
question. Is the following possible? I
00:47:26
haven't even thought about this. Georgia
00:47:27
has already lost one game, right? They
00:47:29
have one loss.
00:47:31
Okay, let's suppose Alabama sticks it to
00:47:34
Georgia.
00:47:36
Is there any argument that Alabama
00:47:39
should be a top four seed, get a week
00:47:42
off as opposed to Oh, so Alabama and
00:47:45
Georgia are playing for something. I
00:47:47
mean, if Alabama wins that game
00:47:48
convincingly, Alabama could move into
00:47:51
the four slot, which is where they have
00:47:53
Georgia now, get a week off and and
00:47:55
>> or the two slot. They could be two. I
00:47:57
mean, the SEC champion. Are you kidding?
00:47:59
That's a thing for sure.
00:48:00
>> Okay. So, all right. So, that game I
00:48:02
really So, I wasn't that excited about
00:48:04
that game, but now I mean, it's George
00:48:05
Alabama still, but I now I'm really
00:48:07
excited about it because Bama's got
00:48:08
something to play for. seeds are going
00:48:10
to be moved around but uh but in but the
00:48:13
the so what's what's the yeah the the
00:48:17
margin the outside margin the extrinsic
00:48:19
margin is not is there's a little bit of
00:48:21
action but there's not that much action
00:48:22
>> okay
00:48:22
>> okay Eric um I know you want to talk
00:48:25
about NBA talk to us about though I have
00:48:28
before we do that you you brought my
00:48:30
attention to the fact that the Colorado
00:48:32
Avalanche have only lost one regulation
00:48:34
game all season that's absolutely
00:48:36
spectacular now they have
00:48:37
>> looking Yeah I was looking They have six
00:48:39
overtime losses. They have six overtime.
00:48:42
>> No, but I mean I understand those are
00:48:44
losses. I get how it's scored, but
00:48:46
they're 181 and six.
00:48:52
>> Are they just playing Are they just
00:48:53
playing for overtime? Do they just do
00:48:55
they do they just crowd the net and save
00:48:57
the defensive zone once they get to the
00:48:58
third?
00:48:59
>> No. No. We don't know how many over I
00:49:00
don't know how many overtime wins they
00:49:01
have. I know they have six overtime
00:49:03
losses. I They could be 0 and six in
00:49:05
overtime as far as I know. I I just
00:49:07
don't know. Um, but you know, I do this
00:49:09
every year at this time of year. They're
00:49:11
on pace for the best record ever in the
00:49:13
history of the NHL. 138 points. The
00:49:16
record, by the way, is 135 just a couple
00:49:18
years ago. Obviously, you'd have to mean
00:49:20
revert. They're not really on they have
00:49:22
they do not have an exceedence where
00:49:24
you'd give them anywhere near even a 50%
00:49:27
probability. It would you you couldn't
00:49:29
be more than I'm making up a number 20%
00:49:31
at this point. It's not maybe even
00:49:33
lower. It's not that low.
00:49:35
>> Probably lower. Yeah. Yeah. Plus, we'd
00:49:36
like to know we'd like to know some
00:49:38
peripherals, as y'all call them in
00:49:39
baseball, peripherals, like what what
00:49:41
are the what are the fundamentals
00:49:42
driving that 181 and six record. Do we
00:49:44
believe are they are they above
00:49:46
expectation, below expectation?
00:49:48
>> What's the what's Pythagorean theorem
00:49:50
for hockey? I don't I I don't I don't
00:49:52
know what the parameter
00:49:53
>> That's a great that's a great question.
00:49:55
But either way, I just noticed they've
00:49:56
only lost at the end of regulation right
00:49:58
now, they've played 25 games and they
00:50:00
have lost one.
00:50:02
>> Um All right. Well, you got another
00:50:04
example in the NBA, so let's jump over
00:50:05
there.
00:50:06
>> The Oklahoma City
00:50:07
>> last week. Yeah, last week in the NBA,
00:50:09
uh, you know, Audi and I were on the
00:50:10
show. I said, Audi, how great do you
00:50:13
think OKC is? Remember, they're the
00:50:15
defending champs. I forget if they won
00:50:17
67 or 68 games last year, but they
00:50:19
weren't a poter last year. They won the
00:50:21
title and they were the one seed going
00:50:23
into the They were the one seed going
00:50:25
into the NBA tournament. No one believed
00:50:27
in them. They they won the title last
00:50:29
year, right?
00:50:31
people who believed in them last year,
00:50:33
they they
00:50:34
>> not not but not as strongly like well
00:50:36
you know they've not proven themsel now
00:50:39
they're the NBA champs they've got the
00:50:41
MVP in Shay Gildish Alexander they're 20
00:50:45
and one
00:50:48
20 and one on a 12game winning streak
00:50:51
>> last year they set the record you may
00:50:53
remember Kade for the best point
00:50:54
differential in the history of the NBA
00:50:56
at 11.5 well they've played 21 games
00:50:59
this year and they're 15.5.
00:51:02
So, at some point soon, if this team
00:51:06
wins another title, and it's not
00:51:08
shocking me, let me ask a question. When
00:51:10
do we start talking about the best
00:51:12
record all time? They're 20 and one.
00:51:15
>> Okay, the record 73-9.
00:51:18
73-9. So, they still have to go 53 and
00:51:21
8, which is no joke, but they're at a
00:51:24
pace, I mean, you can do math right now.
00:51:27
on the pace of I know there's not 84
00:51:29
games, but 80 and four.
00:51:31
>> Yeah. Yeah. It's it's uh it's that's
00:51:34
pretty fantastic.
00:51:35
>> And their second best player,
00:51:38
>> Jaylen Jackson,
00:51:40
just came back from injury. I think he's
00:51:42
played one or two games.
00:51:44
>> Okay. What's the best, Eric? What's the
00:51:46
best two season cumulative record we've
00:51:48
ever seen?
00:51:50
>> That's a great question. I'm only
00:51:52
guessing and I'm gonna say it's a I'm
00:51:55
guessing and one of our listeners at
00:51:57
WMoneyball can exit us or tweet at us,
00:52:00
however you want to call it. I'm going
00:52:01
to guess it's uh
00:52:04
138 or 139 somewhere around there. Could
00:52:08
be it could be as much as 140 like maybe
00:52:11
that the um the Warriors when they won
00:52:13
73 167 or something around there the
00:52:16
game before. It's certainly not more
00:52:18
than 140. And I think I have to look
00:52:20
exactly at how much OKC won last year,
00:52:23
but uh here I can look at it up quickly.
00:52:25
OKC 2024 2025 record.
00:52:31
Last year they won 68. Yeah. So if they
00:52:34
get to 72, that could well be a record
00:52:37
for the best two year. And certainly I'm
00:52:40
not saying it's guaranteed. I'd be
00:52:42
shocked if they don't break the record.
00:52:44
You'd agree with this. You'd be shocked
00:52:47
if they don't break the record for the
00:52:48
greatest point differential at this
00:52:50
point.
00:52:51
>> This point. I mean, I' I'd like to know
00:52:54
how there's what schedule they've played
00:52:55
so far. I don't know if it's if it's how
00:52:57
balanced it is, how unbalanced it is.
00:52:58
It's also there's a lot of there's a you
00:53:00
know, we talked about this on the show
00:53:01
two weeks ago. There's some real trash
00:53:03
in the NBA this year. The trash is trash
00:53:06
usual. And so adjusting for that in some
00:53:08
way would seem to be appropriate. But
00:53:10
>> I think also you have to ask the
00:53:12
question if they're, you know, 70 and
00:53:14
five,
00:53:16
>> do they play for the record or do they
00:53:18
say, "Look, forget the record. We want
00:53:20
to win a second title back to back."
00:53:22
They rest Sheay, they rest Chad
00:53:23
Holgrren, they rest Jaylen Jackson. All
00:53:25
of a sudden, you and I are playing the
00:53:27
last 10 games of the season.
00:53:28
>> I've got to I've got to believe they
00:53:30
they would care a whole lot more about
00:53:31
the hardware than the than the one last
00:53:33
record. Eric, I've got another Oklahoma
00:53:35
City before we go here in Oklahoma City
00:53:37
that kind of connects to you in a way.
00:53:39
Eric, you're a good New Yorker. Do you
00:53:40
know who Robert Caro is?
00:53:42
>> Who?
00:53:43
>> Robert Caro, the biographer.
00:53:45
>> I don't.
00:53:46
>> You don't. You should. You You've got
00:53:47
some Caroesque characteristics. And you
00:53:50
should definitely know Robert Moses.
00:53:51
Here's a New Yorker. Robert Moses. You
00:53:53
know who Robert?
00:53:54
>> Robert Moses.
00:53:54
>> Okay. So, Carol is Moses's biographer.
00:53:58
And then he went on to be a biographer
00:53:59
of Linda Johnson. And he's generally
00:54:01
considered the best living biographer,
00:54:02
one of the best historian biographers in
00:54:04
US history. And he's got these every 10
00:54:08
years he produces a thousandpage volume.
00:54:10
He's got one on run on Moses. He's got
00:54:13
four on OBJ with a fifth to come. And
00:54:15
we're just hoping that he makes the
00:54:17
fifth because in he's in his 90s now. Um
00:54:20
is he in his 90s or upper 80s? He's he's
00:54:22
getting up there. Anyway, ESPN just
00:54:24
wrote an article about how Sam Prey,
00:54:26
general manager of the Oklahoma City
00:54:28
Thunder, is a big Robert Carroll fan.
00:54:30
Like he like he's got a real thing about
00:54:32
Carol and his biographies. He's
00:54:33
apparently an interesting reader anyway,
00:54:35
but he's so much of a fan. And Carol is
00:54:37
like a basketball fan. And so Carol
00:54:40
knows that Prey likes his stuff. And so
00:54:42
it's just it's my world's coming
00:54:43
together because I teach Carol's books
00:54:45
and I read Carol's books and I love Sam
00:54:47
Prey. And ESPN wrote this big honken
00:54:50
article this week on Prey and Carol.
00:54:52
>> It just makes me love him more. As if I
00:54:54
didn't love Sam Prey enough.
00:54:55
>> I'll have to take a look at that. But my
00:54:57
summary of the NBA is not last year. If
00:54:59
I told you three years ago, three years
00:55:01
ago, the number one teams in the NBA
00:55:04
right now would be OKC and Detroit.
00:55:08
[laughter]
00:55:09
>> No, I can see I could, you know, you can
00:55:10
almost believe Oklahoma City because
00:55:11
they've had so many they've been
00:55:13
rebuilding towards this.
00:55:15
>> You know, the Sixers had a ton of draft
00:55:16
picks, too, and they haven't made it.
00:55:18
So, but but I think the thing I wanted
00:55:21
to just bring up quickly is, you know,
00:55:22
we'll talk about this on an entirely
00:55:24
another show is kind of the speed of
00:55:27
turnover in certain sports versus
00:55:29
others. Like, if I told you next year,
00:55:31
I'll make it up. I don't know who the
00:55:32
worst MLB team was. I forget if it was
00:55:34
the White Socks or the Rockies, let's
00:55:36
say it's the Rockies, I forget who it
00:55:37
was, who won like barely 40 something
00:55:39
games. If I told you they win the title
00:55:41
next year, you say absolutely not.
00:55:43
There's no chance. If I told you next
00:55:46
year the Giants win the title, you'd
00:55:48
probably still say no chance, right? No
00:55:51
chance.
00:55:52
>> Well, the San Francisco Giants, they
00:55:54
bounce around pretty reliably.
00:55:55
>> I meant the New York Giants. I meant the
00:55:57
football, but probably in the NBA, you
00:56:00
know, in a two or threeear stretch,
00:56:01
certainly in the NFL, like the if I had
00:56:04
told you two years ago the Patriots may
00:56:05
be looking at having the best record in
00:56:07
the NFL, I I no
00:56:10
>> Yeah. Still no.
00:56:11
>> Yeah. Still no. It's amazing how quickly
00:56:14
they and that's why I think in my view
00:56:16
Mike Greybel's the coach of the year. He
00:56:17
has to be the coach of the year.
00:56:19
>> Yeah, that's reasonable. Utterly
00:56:21
reasonable. And what I mean what a hire
00:56:22
he's proven to be so far. And Drake when
00:56:24
Drake May and Drabel, you get a solid
00:56:26
coach and a good QB and that's pretty
00:56:28
much
00:56:29
>> you're set. You're not quite set, but
00:56:31
you're close. Okay, why don't we wrap it
00:56:33
there? That's been a full hour of sports
00:56:36
analytics here on Wharton Moneyball.
00:56:38
Thanks to Kevin Cole, our guest in the
00:56:39
first half of the show. Thanks to
00:56:41
Marissa Raina, our producer, to Dion
00:56:43
Samkins, our associate producer who
00:56:45
makes this thing go round. Deep Patel,
00:56:47
the big boss lady. And to you guys, the
00:56:49
listeners, thanks for being with us.
00:56:51
Come back and join us next time. Between
00:56:52
now and then, enjoy your sports.
