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Dan Loney: Well, despite numerous
challenges both here in the United States and Europe, Google
remains at the top of the ladder
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in terms of the world of search.
But a recent paper looks at just how that is occurring. Pleasure
to be joined by Leon Musolff, who
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is an Assistant Professor of
Business, Economics and Public Policy here at the Wharton
School. Leon, great to have you
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with us today. Thanks for your
time. Thanks so much for having
me, Dan. Always happy to talk
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more about this fascinating
antitrust case. It is, and it's obviously an
interesting topic, especially
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when you think about how long
Google has had this position in the world of search. Let me
start, I guess, with how you go
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about researching
something like this. So the core idea of our paper is
to run what we call a field
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experiment. So we want to
actually observe how people make their choices between search
engines in as natural
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environment as possible, so
literally on their computers. For this, we developed a little
browser extension that can
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basically tell us which search
engine they are using at any given time, and then we walk
them in a survey through various
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sort of what we call treatments.
So for instance, we might pay some users money to try out a
different search engine, but
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that money, that incentive, runs
out after two weeks. And the question is, you know, once that
incentive runs out, if I paid
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you some money to try Bing, for
instance, are you then going to switch back to Google, or are
you going to stick with Bing?
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And as you might imagine, the
answer could depend on whether we remind you, you know, "Hey,
you are now not being paid
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anymore to try a different
search engine. So do you want to switch back?" How does, then, the quality of the
experience play into the
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decision of which search engine
they might use? Right. So the idea is that— that
choices between search engines
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could be driven by a couple
of different things. So one of them is, like, the quality of the
search engine. But also, there
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might be an aspect where there
is a search engine that's just the default in your browser.
Indeed, we know that Google pays
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around $26 billion a year to
remain the default on various browsers and devices. So you
might think, you know, a lot of
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people are just going to go with
whatever the default search engine is. And then the last
thing that could play in is, you
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know, not the true quality, but
sort of perception of quality that might not necessarily be
accurate. If I ask you, you
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know, "Have you ever used a
search engine that is not Google?" The answer might be, "No.
I've never even tried this." And
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because of that, you might not
actually know, you know, what the quality is of the competition.
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So you mentioned using Bing in
this research. What was the general consensus from the
people that you had in this
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research about Bing? And did
they want to stay with Bing, or did they feel more comfortable
or just fall back in terms of
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using Google after the
experiment? Right. So the core group, where—
this is an interesting question,
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is the people that we tried to—
that we paid some money to try Bing, but then we reminded them,
and we said, "Hey, now that
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you're making an active choice
again, now that we're not paying you money again, do you want to
switch back?" And what we saw
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there is that about a third of
these users stuck with Bing. And that surprised us, because that
suggested that, you know, after
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experiencing both search
engines, there was actually a sizable minority that seemed to
prefer Bing to Google. Now I
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want to be careful to say, you
know, a third of users is definitely not 100% of users.
The vast majority of users
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still prefer Google, even if
they are informed. But it is interesting to know that, you
know, about a third of users can
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be shifted in this way if they
just were to experience the other search engine. But there— there is that component
of people just kind of logging
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on to, probably, whatever search
engine they are using that is, you know, first up kind of in
the rotation on their— on their
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device. And they stick with it,
and they don't really consider whether or not it's Google,
Bing, Microsoft, whatever it is.
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One other thing that we did as
part of this experiment is, for some people, we paid them some money
to switch the default search
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engine sort of very briefly, and
then we just never reminded them of this fact again. And one
thing that was maybe less
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surprising but still very
interesting, is that these people, at very high rates,
stuck with that changed search
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engine, even though they had
previously been using a different search engine, right?
So this default does seem to
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have an outsized influence on
what search engines people choose. But there is an
interesting subtlety here,
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because the default for most
people is Google. Because people use Chrome, or on their mobile
devices in Safari, always, Google
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is the default. But Google is
also the search engine they would choose if they were to
sort of actively think about it
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without experiencing a different
search engine. You might think that's because Google has a
really high brand value or
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something like that, but that
means that just changing what is the default search engine would
work. But just having people
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make an active choice rather
than, like, giving them the default of Google would not work
in changing Google's
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market share.
- I know, in the terms of this research, you're talking about Google, and you use Bing
as the example. But it makes me
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also wonder about something like
Microsoft with Edge, and whether or not we should expect, either
already or down the road, that
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Microsoft would be able to gain
a certain advantage because of Edge, and it going into so many
of their devices.
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100% agree, and I think that has
already happened. So in our study, we explicitly separate
out Chrome users and Edge users.
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And that's actually really
useful for us, because, like you say, the Edge users have a Bing
default. And so that allows us
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to sort of, you know, get some
more sense of how much defaults influence choices. And we do
find that Bing has a huge
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advantage because of Edge. And
indeed, you know, I keep referring to Bing and Google as
the only two search engines, when
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we all know there is a bunch of
other search engines. That's because they jointly have a
really, really high market
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share. You know, on the order of
95%. And that is, we think, exactly because Google has the default on
the Chrome browsers, and Bing has
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the default on the Edge browser. What do you think, then, that this
research could mean for the
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policy path? Because certainly
there is still lots of discussion about the potential
of monopoly that Google has in
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the area of search. No, I totally agree with you,
and indeed, Judge Mehta is deciding right now what remedies
to impose on Google in this
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antitrust trial, after ruling
last summer that Google is a monopolist and has sort of
violated anti-competitive
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clauses. And what we think would
be most useful is any policy that has sort of two key
features. The first feature is
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that it must respect users
choice. So the dangerous thing about defaults is that users are
not making an active choice.
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They're just, sort of just
sticking with what they're presented with by the browser.
So we need to do away with that.
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But the interesting additional
fact that our research uncovers is that that's not quite enough,
because users do not know the
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quality of all the products. So
somehow a successful policy needs to expose users to
alternative search engines. To at
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least one more search engine,
not just Google. And one way one could accomplish this is by
defaulting people into, say,
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Bing or some other search engine
at random, and then after a certain period of time, say, two
weeks, have them make an active
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choice. So then you would have
both of those features where they experience— at least a bunch
of them experience a different
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search engine because they just
stick with the default. But then we also sort of rescue them from
that other search engine if they
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really dislike it. And that
second part is really important. Just making some other search
engine the default is really
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bad, because we find that users
massively prefer Google, on average, even if there is some
exceptions to that rule.
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And probably at this point in
time, with how much we use the main search engines out there,
it might be hard to expect to
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see a third company, kind of
outside of Microsoft or Google, being able to gain enough market
share where you can have all
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three of them on a level playing
field. Yeah, so I totally agree with
that. One core complication
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there that we haven't mentioned
before is that there might also be what we call feedback
effects. So basically, if you
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have more users, you learn more
about what results users like, and so it becomes easier to
serve relevant results. And we
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find in our paper that these
effects are not so important for the competition between Bing and
Google, because they are both
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already quite sizable. But if
you were a small company starting a new search engine,
that sort of effect would
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certainly limit your ability to
compete with the big boss. Yeah. Leon, great to have you with us
today and get your insight.
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Thank you very much, sir. Thank you so much
for having me. Have a great rest of your day.
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Thank you. Leon
Musolff, who is an Assistant Professor of Business Economics
and Public Policy here at the
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Wharton School.