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Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball. Welcome to a full hour of sports analytics here on the Wharton podcast
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network. This is Kade Massie hosting this week with two of my usual three co-host. Audi Winer is here. I think
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he's coming in from New York. Shane Jensen is here. Looks like he is on campus. I'm guessing Eric Bradlo's out
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and about. Eric is doing Eric things. He'll be back. We are delighted to have
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a first-time guest, a a longtime friend, first-time guest. Brandt Tillis is with
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us. Brandt is a sitting executive in the NFL, executive vice president for football operations with the Carolina
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Panthers. He is, I think, rolling into his third year in that position. Having come over from the Kansas City Chiefs,
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he was with the Chiefs for multiple championships. He came into the world, I think it's fair to say, as kind of a cap
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guy and helped do a lot of the negotiating there with Kansas City. Before KC, he was at the league office.
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Um, and before that, interned with the Raiders. Brandt, glad to have you on the show. Thanks for
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making time for us. >> Hey, Kaden, the crew. Thanks, thanks for having me. You You took my my joke I was
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going to make. think I was going to make the first time longtime joke because >> I've been
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>> you're actually a listener. >> Yes. >> That's awesome. Well,
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>> you guys you guys helped get me through through COVID and understanding what the
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heck was happening there, too. So, the show's always been been great. But then
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I got to do one quick shout out here, which is um Shane is friends with a good buddy of mine from high school who I was
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shocked to find out he is not really a sports fan and he's a lawyer from Denver. His name is Ross Ziv. And Ross
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texted me one day and said and said, ' Do you know Eric Eager? And I was like,
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"Yeah, of course I know Eric. He's amazing." And he said, "Uh, my friend
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Shane knows him." Like, how do you how do you know the Wharton Moneyball Analytics guy? You're a lawyer in Denver
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who doesn't even like sports, >> right? >> That's great. See, I'm glad to know our
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footprint expands. That's awesome. As well, >> I remember I was I was hanging with him
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last summer and uh talking about just uh I mean, actually talking about the work
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you guys are doing down there in Carolina. uh mostly um you know I think it's it's been a early success for sure.
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>> Well yeah hopefully it was a good conversation man. >> We have to say that I mean Eric is a
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multiple time guest of the show and and and a good friend over the years. He's
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an example of we've built relationships in 12 years of the show. It's more than
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just the show now. We have this these relationships we didn't have before and
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Eager is one of those guys. You kind of stole him from us in some ways Brandt. I
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mean, he used to be able to talk publicly and say things and write provocatively and make people mad.
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>> He is a unicorn for us. He's he's obviously very smart, very analytic
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savvy, but he can talk to anyone in the building about any kind of problem that he can help solve or or that that that
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they may have that he can bridge a gap to. I mean, he spends time with our coaches, with with our scouting staff,
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with obviously with Dan and myself and coach Canales and um and as well as some folks in our business operations. So,
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he's he's all over the place and he's he does excellent work for us. He's
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completely exceeded expectations. >> Well, that's that's great to hear. And
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it it strikes me that your job, you know, you moved over two plus years ago. We talk about how important staff hires
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are for coaches, but I can imagine that it was very important decision for you. Like, who do you bring in to work with
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you as you move over to Carolina, and he was one of the guys that you recruited to bring in? Shane alluded to it. Um,
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you took over a club that had just won two games the year before, five games in the first year, 24 season, and then
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eight games last year. So, that the trajectory is definitely in the right direction. Can you give us some sense of
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what the building feels like this spring? What what are the what are the questions? What are the enthusiasms?
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What are you most working on? Any anything you can tell us about where you guys are at the moment?
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>> First of all, we're just we're very proud of the season we just had. This
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was the first division championship that the club has had in and I believe 10 seasons. And we had a home playoff game
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and the the crowd and the atmosphere was was unbelievable. Um it was right up there with with some of the crowds we
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had there in Kansas City during our runs there. Uh it was it was truly special. You know, we couldn't we couldn't finish
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the game out unfortunately, but we're very proud of the season that we had and
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we're very fortunate to be able to continue to build on it. So, we're very
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excited about all that we've done in free agency. We signed uh a few a few really good players so far and and then
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we have a whole draft in front of us. And so things are things are certainly trending up here in Carolina and and so
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I you know I think I think just the the continuity that we have, the support that we have from ownership, uh those
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are all the things that we're really leaning into at this point. >> Ownership is a drum we beat occasionally
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around here. It took me a long time as a sports fan to realize how important ownership was. As soon as I started
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working in sports, I'm like, "Oh god, the whole thing's driven by owners
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essentially." Turns out shouldn't have been surprising. Can you give us some an
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example of when you said supportive ownership like what's one way concrete manifestation of that when you feel
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happy with the ownership you have as sitting in your position what does that look like certainly um in free agency
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just last week um we were we laid out our plan to to Dave Ter about look we're
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gonna we're going to go after Jaylen Phillips and it's going to cost a lot of
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money and it and we're going to have to pay him potentially $30 million a year.
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And then we're also going to follow that up and go after go after a really good
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defensive playmaker. And it that's also going to cost a lot of money. And these
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two and these these two deals don't come without risk. And he he hears us out. He
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he he pushes back on a lot of what what we say, not to not to say no, but just to just to test. All right. How how
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resolved are you? Have you thought about this? Have you thought about that? And we get to a really good place together.
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And then he says, "Great. You have like you you have my permission. And you need
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and you need to go and execute this plan." And so we're able to to do that.
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We're able to act fast. We don't have to go check with him after every little
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thing, every little move during a negotiation. Um he knows he knows what the parameters
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are that we're we're we're working within. and then we can just we can just
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go and execute. >> Well, I guess just kind of following up on sort of the success that you guys saw
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last season, I I feel like there was several teams this past season that essentially went from worst to first. I
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mean, I'll count Carolina in there as well, even though I it's kind of a you
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weren't actually I don't think worst in the previous year, just tied for it, but
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like New England also Chicago. Do you think there I I mean that happens? It's
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not like it's completely unusual that that would a worst to first worst would
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happen, but I I feel like three in one season or or or like that many. Do you think there's something is there some
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aspect of today's like league or or or you know the way things are done that
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that le can teams can kind of turn change their fortunes around quickly more quickly than they used to?
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>> Yes. I I think I think you're going to see it a lot more. Um and and I think a
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lot of it has to do with just a rising salary cap and the fact that that they're that uh teams you'll see every
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year you'll see a team with $100 million in a room, $80 million, whatever whatever it is. And so teams are able to
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to to kind of propel themselves quickly. Um, I think I think for us in particular
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when when I came in here and and Dan took over as GM and and we had Coach Canales here, you saw that a little bit.
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We we signed a couple of good free agents and then then the next year we signed a couple of more. So, ours was
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more of of a slow burn, but you'll also see you also see some teams like really
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jump in and then, you know, what they do from there is up to them. >> The the rising cap, do you kind of feel
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like that means that do you kind of see a kind of an increasing role for free agency actually in the future versus
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kind of d you know the comparing drafting free agency is kind of the two main team building kind of actions. Does
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the rising cap kind of continue to give more preference towards free agency in your mind?
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>> No, I don't. I I think that I think teams I think that teams now um it's just like
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it was 20 years ago when I first came in the league, which is the best way to build a long sustaining
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team that that contends every year is to draft, develop, and retain. So you can you can get a a jump start on free
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agency of course, but you still need to draft and you still need to keep those players to keep your your culture and
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your continuity going. >> Free agents are expensive and so when they if they if they explode on you, you
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have to take the hit if I mean if you particular if you backended money and then all of a sudden it comes up yet and
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that destroys your cal salary cap. But a lot of first round picks, they don't all
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have to be great or a lot of picks in general just have to have a few that turn into something. But I I guess my
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question is the NIL has made a is making a huge change in co college football. What is it doing to the the drafting
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kind of climate um at the professional level? One would argue that maybe the players are staying a little longer
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because they get good money and maybe you know more about them. I'm just completely um at a loss to understand
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what that's going to do um at the draft level. Have you what what are you seeing
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there? Certainly players are older coming into the league. We're seeing that this year. A lot of the a lot of
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the top players in the draft are are older players. So that's just something
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new that that we're going to have to deal with uh leaguewide. Um and then the other piece too, which
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which is more of a positive I think is is these players have money in college, so we can see how money is going to
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affect them in the pros. that that used to be a big a big jump for us to make is
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all right how's money how's money going to change this this person and and now
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now we kind of know what it is so there and and we we haven't found equilibrium
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yet with this NIL and and transfer portal that that the college system has like I I I think it's going to take a
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few years for us to to fully understand how things are going to function um but just based on how things are now.
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There's there's some positive and there's some negative and and we're just
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we're just trying to navigate that ourselves. >> Brent, I just want to hear a little bit
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more about the comment you just made and it's fascinating to me and I had not
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thought about it at all, but I've heard highlevel professional basketball coaches say this is one of the if they
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could know one thing, it would be how's this person going to respond to great
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wealth? And he may be talking about a 19-y old kid, so they're a little bit older in the NFL, but that was literally
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the thing he most wanted to know. And you're saying, well, that's benefit of
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NIL is that we get to see that. So my question back to you is, do you get to see it? And now I'm not asking for your
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trade secrets because I know this kind of information is what you what your personnel department traffic's in, but
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do you think you're able to get some signal on how a player responds to having anywhere from a few hundred
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thousand to a few million dollars in his checking account? >> A little bit. Yeah. I I wouldn't say
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it's it's earthshattering by any stretch, but but you you do see players
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in in the co in the college game who are coasting a little bit or you you more positively and and more often you see
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players who are leaning into it more, you know, and so now look, there is a downside to all of this too, which is
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there's a transactional element to to the college game now, which is which is
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hard for us to handle in the pros because there so much of of football is kind of buying into your locker room,
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your teammates, playing for each other, playing for your city, for your organization. And and it's easier to to
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continue that uh that narrative in college when you're playing for a a great school like Texas or Alabama or or
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one of those programs. But now, um, you know, it it we just got to kind of break
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them in a little bit different now. >> Yeah. Well, I'm really interested in the
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question of this is a long-standing question about quarterbacks. Does a team in order to be successful have to have a
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quarterback that you're not paying huge amounts of money for? Is that something
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that's that's a really a useful thing to to do or is it or or not? I mean, is the way to to
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succeed to have a a long-term contract with a really great quarterback that's
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not overwhelming or have a a a quarterback that's not amazing, um, maybe only average that you're not
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paying a lot of money for? It's a hard question to answer and I I always go towards
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regardless of position, but specifically with quarterbacks, you got to have a good one. He's got to be good. So,
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if you know that you've got one, keep them. And obviously, you have to make a
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a business decision at some point of can we continue to build around this player
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knowing what what we know about him. But it's it's hard to move off of a
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quarterback and no one's done it yet. >> Uh I do think someone will do it
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eventually. >> What do you mean by do it? Do what? meaning no one's no one's done what I
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think Audi is getting at, which is have a have a quarterback under under a rookie contract
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>> and then move off of him and get on to another rookie. Like have have success
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with that player and then move off of him >> and get onto another lower pay.
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>> The way I think about there's a contingency table of like good not good
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cheap not cheap. And the trouble is if it's good it doesn't good and cheap are
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a cell that's only temporary. You can never lock in good and cheap for a whole
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career because it good means not good means not cheap in the end, right? So, it's kind of like Yeah. I I I feel like
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I again it would be interesting to hear what the te what teams are thinking, but
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like it it seems so chancy still to kind of or getting a a a new good young quarterback via the draft is still a
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stochastic enough or high high uncertainty enough prospect that I feel like that's probably one of the reasons
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that teams never kind of make that progression from like, oh, this person's good, but they're no longer going to be
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cheap where we'll go in a different direction. I think it's always if they're good, they become expensive. And
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I think the teams that get kind of, I guess, locked in to the saddle point or whatever are the teams that have the
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kind of just average quarterback, but they have to >> pay full market, >> pay them like they're good.
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>> Yeah. >> Well, is isn't there some variation? I mean, right, you still don't have to pay
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even a a rookie a quarterback on his second contract that's only average. They don't you don't have to pay them
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massive amounts of money. I'm not sure I know the the numbers exactly, but they're not the most expensive. Is that
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or am I wrong on that? Just to keep someone who you want is just going to cost you the maximum. That's that.
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>> Yeah. I guess I don't know if Brand whether we can brainstorm what you mean
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by like an average quarterback. Like Daniel Jones is certainly probably, you know, somebody like Daniel Jones is
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an example of somebody who like maybe average is generous, maybe it's not, but
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he just you had to pay him basically. He's no he is, you know, no longer cheap
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by any stretch of the imagination. He's he he's getting paid like an expense a
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good quarterback regardless of whether he's actually good or not. >> Yeah. And it'll be super interesting to
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see to see what happens with the Colts in the next few years. They've got they've got a great coach and and a
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great GM and and and I think they have a good plan. So, it'll it'll be fun to
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watch. And and that and that's what's kind of cool about my job and and what
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I've been able to do for the last 20 years in the NFL is just watch how other
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teams handle uh handle these issues and and what's working and and what's not
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and then try to use those to the best I can with the team I'm working for. And
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um you know we've had some success here. We had a lot of success in Kansas City.
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We had some you know some less success at points in Kansas City too. So um that's it's the fun part about about
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football is just seeing seeing how all this plays out. >> Brent, you had a chance when you moved
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from KC to Carolina two plus years ago. So you were doing your first draft that you're coming up on your third. You were
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doing your first draft two years ago. You come in, you and Morgan and the rest of the team build out your draft
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process. Now, you were subject to the scouting that had been done over the previous nine months. I mean, the
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scouting begins almost a year ahead of time, basically a year ahead of time. But that was a chance for you to take
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these learnings from what you'd seen at KC, from what you'd seen other clubs do
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and kind of build relatively from scratch. Relatively. What were some ideas that you were
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trying to put in place when you got there around the draft and the scouts? And I know you're just one member of the
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team, but you were part of the team designing that process based on your experience.
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>> Yeah. So, the the the biggest thing was just having an an inclusive process and
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not siloing uh people, not siloing our scouts, our coaches, uh any of our staff members who would who could have a say
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in the in the draft. And look, let let's get all the ideas out there. Let's get
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them all on the table and let's talk about them in an open forum. Uh so creating creating that security uh
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within the draft room was was critical. Uh being being film based, watching the watching the film, watching the tape um
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was was also important. That's something I learned in Kansas City. I >> as opposed to what, Brett?
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>> As opposed to just relying on data. um which which was which was kind of a cool
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um turning point for me at the Chiefs was um when when John Dorsey first took over
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as GM there. John had me sit in the draft room with him and he had me go through all of the combine measurables
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and all the stuff and see if we could figure anything out from all the data that that we had and I would come up
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with all these players who I thought could be could be really good and and John was amazing because John would sit
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there with me and he would point out like okay you like this guy but he has no instinct. See, look, he's run the
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wrong way here, or you like this guy, but look, he's getting torqued here, you
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know. And so, it was just all of those all of those lessons. And then and then when Brett took over as GM there, too,
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it was it became very it became very film based, but also use the data to to push back on on what we believe and make
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sure that we are right or to point out something that maybe we're missing. >> Yeah. Right. So, it it goes both ways.
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you're leading with the what you had to learn coming in as more the quant guy,
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the cap guy, the numbers guy, you had to learn appreciation for the film, but it
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it certainly goes both ways. It's amazing for me to hear you say you lead the first thing you said was an
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inclusive draft room. Um, after spending whatever I've spent working around this
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stuff, maybe 20 years, I have kind of concluded that it's mostly a culture issue and and so you're talking about
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culture. You're talking about a culture where kind of you'll take an edge from
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anywhere, right? It's a hard thing to do what you're trying to do. It's
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borderline impossible. You'll take an edge from anywhere, but that might be an
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unexpected place. >> Yeah, absolutely. And and the thing too about evaluating is
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a lot of it has to do with, let's call it, job descriptions. And sometimes a misaluation of a player has
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more to do with with with not having the proper job description for what we're
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asking that guy to do. And so just making sure that we're all on the same page about that is is important as well.
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>> So we talk a lot about drafts and I think it's one of the reasons we do that
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because it's one of the most statistically interesting and intricate thing for we analysts to think about.
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But every year after the draft, after the draft happens, every team gets its draft rated. Now, you know, the pundits
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do that, right? Some get an A, some get a B, some get a C, whatever it is. Do you think those ratings are have any
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merit? You don't know for a few years how how good a draft is. Also, the the
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our the draft analysts, they they do a great job of of understanding what's happening in the league, how the teams
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are seeing these players, and they and they're able to to me to mesh that with
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their own evals, but they're just one person, whereas we have an army of dozens of people in this building that
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are watching all these players and and understanding who they are. So we have much more complete information than a
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single analyst does. And so then we are rated by the analyst based on the analyst's perception of our draft which
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is um which I think is is incomplete. And then also it takes it sometimes it takes these guys two or three years to
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be to grow into their own as players. So we don't we we just don't know enough.
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And so I I we don't take a whole lot of stock into into that. Um, obviously we
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see them and and our fans get excited about them either way and we just deal with it. But but the players go in and
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they they still put in the work and they and they do, you know, as as good of a job as they can.
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>> I just my only followup is that that I know that for example in baseball the
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the evaluations of the draft class just don't don't have any signal. They don't
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predict anything more than just the position um the in the draft itself predicts. And that's essentially what
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what I was wondering about in football is after the draft has happened and you see what someone's done. You're
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essentially you're essentially saying that the teams know so much more than the pundits outside can possibly
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evaluate that you won't really know until it's until that the seasons have
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un unwound themselves and you've observed and then you can go back and see how you did.
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>> Do you do that? Do is there kind of like I mean obviously you wouldn't want to
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base this on some pundit's opinion but kind of inhouse uh do you kind of like do you guys have
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sort of some sort of systematic like oh here's here's the how do we do in the 20
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now now that we we're far enough out from the 2023 draft or the 2024 draft how how did we do I don't know how much
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kind of very I I mean I'm sure there's very indirect process kind of like
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optimization you guys are doing I don't know how much you're actually evaluating
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your own past decisions. I >> have no doubt that Eric Eager and his team will come up with some way to grade
00:23:30
past drafts. We haven't done it yet. I do just sometimes anecdotally go through
00:23:38
past drafts that I've been a part of to say like what what could we have done
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here or what should we have done here? Um but look like it is a decision-making enterprise. So we it is like usually
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we're making the best decision at the time with the information that that we
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have. And so I can justify every pick that's ever been made by going through
00:24:04
by going through that way. Now, at the same time, saying maybe we should have done this instead,
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or wow, we got lucky that we weren't thinking about this. >> I I had the chance to sit with an NBA
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team one time that did that two years later. They had the entire anybody that was involved with this with the draft
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process in the room talking about they just went through the, you know, the all all whatever it is, 60 picks in the
00:24:27
first two rounds and they just talked about what they each thought and how it's played out in the first years. And
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the stunning thing to me about that was that it wasn't just the scouts talking.
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It wasn't even just the head of personnel. It was the GM. There were owner representatives in the room and
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everybody was saying, "Yeah, I got this wrong." It was remarkable um embrace of humility in a certain way.
00:24:46
And that's way I mean it's so it's so hard what y'all are trying to do. It's
00:24:49
so uncertain. Anything I think you can do to underscore, yeah, we know this is hard. We're going to get it wrong
00:24:55
sometimes helps with that culture. I've got a question for you, specific question for you. the the the the very
00:25:01
numbersy the analyticsy guys who will evaluate a draft after the fact will own up to the fact that they have no idea
00:25:07
which defensive tackle is going to be best or which edge is going to be best and they'll evaluate a draft on two
00:25:12
things and only two things. One is draft capital. Did they trade up and burn some
00:25:16
capital? Do they borrow some picks from the future or do they trade down? And the other thing that analytic analysts
00:25:22
will do is uh consider position value. And I wonder, Brandt, if you think the analytics community takes position value
00:25:29
too far. I wonder this myself because I see some very sharp teams. Take a center
00:25:35
in the first round or take a safety in the first round. And I'm curious your
00:25:40
philosophy on position value because the Edalus crowd would say you should do nothing in the first round except take
00:25:46
quarterbacks, edges, and wide outs or maybe left tackles. That's it. Just based on the position value. position is
00:25:54
something that that we've talked about in every draft I've been a part of since
00:26:01
I've worked for a team. So, my first year with the Chiefs was 2010. We drafted Eric Barry with the fifth pick
00:26:08
and and I remember >> safety and I remember there was a lot of discussion about does it make sense to
00:26:15
draft a safety but you just need to get an impact players if you're picking in
00:26:20
the first round especially if you're picking high get an impact player. So, if you can draft, think about this. If
00:26:26
you could draft a Hall of Fame center at whatever pick you're at, would you rather do that or would you
00:26:34
rather draft uh a guy that's a starting edge for eight years but never really,
00:26:40
you know, does never really stands out, never really makes a great impact. Which
00:26:46
which would you rather have? I personally would rather have the Hall of Fame player. So,
00:26:49
>> say more about that. say more about that because I think it's hard for those of
00:26:52
us outside the building to appreciate what when you get to that level the contribution a kind of under the radar
00:26:58
position like center makes or guard or nose tackle. Sure. You you can't have
00:27:05
enough good players on your team now. Yes. Would you would you want to have Miles Garrett? Yes. Like when you're
00:27:11
talking about a Hall of Fame player at a premium position, yes, you want that you
00:27:14
want that player on your team. But when but if you're convicted that somebody is going to make an impact on
00:27:21
your roster and be a force multiplier, go and get them. Don't worry about the
00:27:25
position. Just get the player. >> I think you just used a term that's the
00:27:30
key and kind of deludes analysts in the NFL. Force multiplier. We're still valuing these guys based on what we can
00:27:36
say about their contribution directly and we don't capture their contribution
00:27:40
to other players contributions. It's a force multiplier when he makes other players better.
00:27:47
We're That is kind of the um holy grail still in analytics. Grant, we're going
00:27:52
to run out of time with you and I want I just got to ask you at this time of year
00:27:55
I have to ask you. We talked about quarterbacks. We're talking about the draft. You were there and one of the
00:28:00
great quarterback picks of all time. Can you give us now, you know, mostly I don't trust people's memories, but
00:28:05
you've been telling the story for a long time. So, can you tell us when what you guys thought you had when
00:28:12
you drafted Mahomes and then when you learned what you really had at what point and how did you learn what you
00:28:18
really had? >> I think there was there was a lot of excitement about what what Pat could be
00:28:22
when we drafted him and and Brett Vch uh was not the GM at the time, but but was
00:28:30
was pushing for Pat for a whole year. And so I think we were excited that we could get somebody that we had been
00:28:40
talking about for a year. I think I think that was for me like that was a relief. I saw all the arm talent, right?
00:28:48
Like you you you see that on on on the tape and and the numbers that that we were running uh from an analytic
00:28:55
standpoint were also also very good with Pat. I think there was just excitement about the potential and then his first
00:29:03
training camp. It was like appointment viewing to go watch and Brett's talked about this
00:29:09
before but to go watch our second team offense and he made he made this one play and if I had if I had my old phone
00:29:17
I I saved it on my phone. Um he made this one play where he he rolled out and you thought he was just going to run out
00:29:25
of bounds and the next thing you know he fires the ball up the sideline and and our receiver was
00:29:33
running he was running back across the field. He saw the ball but this a quarterback didn't and this receiver
00:29:40
just ran over this quarterback who thought there was no way this ball's coming out and and and caught a
00:29:45
touchdown. And we're like, "Okay, this is this is real. This is very real." And
00:29:51
then we you we used we used a lot of those clips the next year to during free agency. We were showing them to we were
00:30:01
sending them to to agents during free agency to say, "Hey, like we have a receiver or I'm sorry, we we we have a
00:30:07
quarterback >> that that your receiver is going to love playing with."
00:30:13
>> Yeah. Yeah. That's great. That's really cool. Okay, we should let you go. It's
00:30:17
high season in your world. Thank you very much for cutting us some time. The Carolina Panthers are sitting on the
00:30:23
19th pick in the first round. We'll be sitting on the edge of our seats to see
00:30:26
what you do with it, Grant. And we wish you well with the way that pick goes and
00:30:30
the rest of the draft. But thanks much for the time. Really appreciate. >> Thanks, guys. Hope we get an impact
00:30:34
player there. >> Absolutely. Exactly. Grant Tillis, executive vice president, football
00:30:40
operations, Carolina Panthers, preparing for his third draft um there in Charlotte. Welcome back. Welcome back to
00:30:48
Wart Moneyball. Welcome to the second half of this week's show. Kade Massie hosting with two of my three longtime
00:30:57
compatriots, Shane Jensen, Audi Winer, Eric Bradlo will be back just off the line with Brent Tillis. Grant was piping
00:31:04
in from his office with the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte, North Carolina. He's in his third year down there. Fun
00:31:10
conversation talking a lot of draft stuff. We're still we're about a month
00:31:15
out, five weeks out from the draft. Getting a little warm on that front, guys. Uh we're not playing Major League
00:31:22
Baseball real regular season yet. We're getting close, but we are playing this
00:31:27
World Baseball Classic, which had some controversy. So, the US was in the semis against the Dominican Republic. If for
00:31:34
those of you who don't know, the Dominican Republic is surely the single hottest non US base for talent. I'm
00:31:42
guessing it's like international international baseball scouting has to be bigger in the DR than in Japan. No.
00:31:49
Am I wrong? >> Japan actually has great players, but they play in Japan and and very rarely
00:31:53
leave. So, DR are desperate to get out. There's no way to make money in the DR.
00:31:58
So every one of their players who's there wants to go play in the major leagues and in huge numbers too. Japan
00:32:03
only bleeds out a few every now and then. Not because they couldn't. It's
00:32:08
because they stay in Japan. >> I see. I see. It has to rise to a certain level. That's that's a great um
00:32:14
that's a great distinction for us. So late I mean I don't know what else there
00:32:17
is to say about this but the the last out of the game. So the DR were batting their last time at the plate. They had
00:32:24
two outs, went to a full count, men been on base even down a run. I mean, it was
00:32:29
like the game. It could have been go ahead run kind of thing and there was just a brutal call. The the last strike
00:32:34
was a call strike way low like three inch three and a half inches off three and a half out of the zone
00:32:40
>> which is a lot. Um, I don't know what else is to be said about that other than
00:32:44
that Shane's always ready for the I >> Yeah, I'm looking forward to the ABS
00:32:48
system rolling out for Major League Baseball this year. So, we can, you know, that'll probably still happen a
00:32:54
lot because teams will have limited challenges and they'll blow through them. So, maybe we'll still have a lot
00:32:59
of ninth inning controversies like this even with the ABS system because teams will have already blown through all
00:33:05
their challenges. But, it it can only help. Shane, is it just a baby step toward eventually this thing will be
00:33:13
fully automated? I mean, is that eventually it'll be manual exceptions in the other direction, right? When it's
00:33:18
obvious the system got it wrong, then we'll have a manual override. But this
00:33:21
is just a matter of >> it's a baby step towards replacing the humans with machines. It's a microcosm
00:33:27
for every baby step we're seeing in society today. This one I'm cheering for
00:33:32
a little bit more than most of the most the other humanity reducing initiatives we got going on right now. But uh but
00:33:38
yeah, no, I this th this is one where the machines really do do better do it better. So I I I support them on this
00:33:45
one. >> Okay, Audi, before we leave the bad call and and and the automatic umpire system,
00:33:51
anything for you on that front? >> Uh well, certainly I really enjoy watching the World Baseball Classic
00:33:57
because I love the enthusiasm with which the Latin teams in particular play baseball.
00:34:05
the bat flip when when I guess it was when Venezuela won their game with a with a walk-off that was and the
00:34:13
cheering and the craziness of the fans. It's almost feels like almost like a
00:34:18
college football game, you might even say. Um it just a has a a a uh a an environment that and I was I was
00:34:25
watching the game last night with Venezuela playing Italy. Italian is basically Italian-Americans playing with
00:34:30
the usual sort of stayed way that Americans play baseball and the Venezuelan fans and the Venezuelan
00:34:37
players are just over the moon with energy and excitement and happiness over everything and it's just infectious and
00:34:43
I sort of wish some of that uh would carry over to the the regular season. You know, you compared it to college
00:34:50
football, which I'm sympathetic to and I and I do think is probably the best
00:34:54
sporting environment in the US, but it really feels like the comparison is soccer when you're talking about those
00:34:59
Latin teams and the crazy fans. It feels like a a soccer thing. Who won that Venezuela Italy game? This is who's
00:35:04
going to face >> Venezuela. So, the U it's US Venezuela in the finals, which is a rematch of
00:35:09
probably one of the best games of the last World Baseball Classic in 2023. the US and Venezuela played each other I
00:35:16
think in the quarterfinals and that was the one where the US won on like a Trey Turner grand slam. It was amazing game.
00:35:22
So, you know, hopefully we'll get something similar to that this time around. It's it's Yeah, the
00:35:28
>> I I I just to kind of piggyback on what Audi was saying. Um the energy with
00:35:32
which the players are playing in general, it feels like a playoff like almost like a super playoff atmosphere.
00:35:38
And it it makes me wonder kind of, you know, it's weird. This is all happening
00:35:41
during spring training when usually it's like this really kind of slow, very kind
00:35:47
of patient, don't don't pull a hammy kind of ramp up to the regular season. I
00:35:52
kind of wonder, you know, I mean, obviously we touch wood, we mostly avoided uh injuries in the actual
00:35:59
classic, but I kind of wonder like does this like for the players that are in this like are they going to hit the
00:36:05
season like in a different way than they usually would because they have had this
00:36:09
quicker ramp up, you know, is I don't know. It it makes it I'm going to be
00:36:14
really interested uh obviously not just for the game tonight and the end of the World Baseball Classic, but like to sort
00:36:19
of see how these World Baseball Classic players kind of do in the first month of
00:36:24
the season, whether it really looks like this was kind of a a a different kind of, you know, because I'm I'm kind of
00:36:29
hopeful they do this every three years to be honest. So, can you tell me a little bit about
00:36:35
it? Now, it's reminding me of the the Olympic hockey that we just came through
00:36:38
where everyone talked about it seemed to mean more at least as much as the Stanley Cup, which is remarkable.
00:36:45
>> Um, when the US tipped Canada in the finals, um, how were they? So, it reminds me like team selection on all of
00:36:51
that. How who selected the players? How many players were selected? Could you tell that the players wanted to be on
00:36:57
these teams? Like, what's the story on all that? Yeah, I mean certainly the team America,
00:37:02
the American team I feel like I mean Mark D. Rose has had a large role in kind of both building this team and
00:37:09
managing it. And uh I mean anyway uh so I I I but the the team building part of it I think is kind of just I I I mean in
00:37:20
the past it's been kind of an open negotiation between I think how who what great players can we get and what great
00:37:26
players actually will be able to play. And certainly on the pitching side that's been tough and it still is a
00:37:32
challenge. I I I do think we are transitioning more towards kind of a a nice setting where even even the top
00:37:38
pitchers are willing to at least participate. It's during their spring training too.
00:37:43
So you have to be careful and we and people have been careful. But at least have this time around having all the top
00:37:48
pitchers and you know having skins and scoo go for the US has been an extra delight beyond kind of you know and I
00:37:56
think this is the only time where at least America's brought really great pictures.
00:38:00
>> Okay. A lot of that, ju just to follow up with that, a lot of that has to do
00:38:04
with schemes himself. He uh made it a priority and uh he tried to get other good pitchers to come with it. Um that
00:38:12
comes from his Air Force background. He's uh he wanted to play for the US. So
00:38:15
he was uh anxious to do this. Many players just view this as something that's in gets in the way of their
00:38:21
training, their spring training. And pitchers in particular, it's a touch and
00:38:26
go. You don't want to throw your arm out right when you may not be ready. And
00:38:30
even Skins isn't pitching more than 60, 70, 80 pitches. They're not going to get
00:38:33
more than that. >> Okay. Okay. >> There's rules even that limit them
00:38:37
actually um within the within the >> Audi. Remind us what Skins's Air Force
00:38:43
background is. He's too young to have actually been in the Air Force. He's an
00:38:45
Air Force brat. I'm guessing >> he was a cadet. No, he was he went to Air Force Academy.
00:38:50
>> Yeah. It's You don't understand his background. He was a catcher.
00:38:54
>> Um and not particularly good one. Um, and he was went to Air Force, which does
00:38:59
not have a terrific baseball program. He was not drafted and he I don't know, one
00:39:05
of the coaches discovered he had an impossibly strong arm, put him on the mound, and within a year or so, they're
00:39:10
like they're like, "You you can't stay here at Air Force. You got to go to a
00:39:14
real baseball program." And he developed very quickly into probably the best
00:39:19
pitcher in baseball right now. Um, and yet he he went to the Air Force because of his, you know, military commitment,
00:39:26
not because of baseball. >> Have y'all seen that that Twitter video or whoever put the video on Twitter
00:39:33
where it skins like four or five different pitches from the same from the same release and people say, and then
00:39:40
there was one where it's even the same speed. saw 97 mph and they have four different paths and you're like what
00:39:46
chance does a pitch a batter have if if his four pitches are completely identically delivered at the same speed
00:39:52
and yet they're going to do different things in the one second that they travel.
00:39:57
>> I'm I'm not going to I'm not I'm no statistician, but I think his ch the
00:40:00
pedra's chance is probably capped out at one and four. One and four. One and
00:40:05
four. >> But that that's just guessing the right pitch. You still got to actually hit it.
00:40:11
So it goes down from there. >> That's right. That's right. That's
00:40:14
right. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Audi's pointing out that you are
00:40:17
in fact a statistician, Shane. So, um, good on good on you. >> Um, all right. Let's jump over to do a
00:40:24
little bit of hockey. This is the time of year where it kind of has it almost has things to itself. Basketball, of
00:40:30
course, is there, but um, hockey is the other sport that's in full swing at this
00:40:35
point. the ABS. Shane's been pointing us to them from the very beginning and
00:40:39
they're still the points leader. Um, I want to point out >> that I want to talk to you about this. I
00:40:45
Yeah, the Sabres. I This is why I want to talk hockey, Kade. I was wondering if you'd realize what the Sabres have been
00:40:51
doing this year. >> I have it, which is wonderful. I'm very happy for them. It's bizarre to me
00:40:57
because they've been so bad for so long. And it's also bizarre to me because they
00:41:01
have the same owner as the Bills. And it's not that he's a great owner and so
00:41:05
where have the Sabres been? It's more like the other way around. I think the Sabres are more
00:41:10
representative of his ownership style than the Bills are. So I want to know what's going on this year, Shane. How is
00:41:15
it that that all of a sudden they're at top of their division and one of the top
00:41:18
points leaders in the in the whole NHL? >> Yeah. No, I I I mean I I I I've been
00:41:23
kind of amazed by it myself and I don't have any good answers other than they're
00:41:26
playing a lot better than expected essentially across the board. Um I I feel like pundits even like as as as
00:41:33
late as like Christmas were just kind of talking about like oh you know typical Buffalo terrible se you know it's it's
00:41:38
been you know I mean they're break uh they're breaking one of the longest
00:41:43
playoff streaks I think of all time actually >> they should be. Yeah that's right. I
00:41:46
think it was the longest of all time almost 20 years. Is it more than 20 years now? Um and they're sitting on top
00:41:52
of a tough >> 14 years 14 years. 14 >> 14. >> Yeah. >> Sometimes these things happen when you
00:41:56
play in a weak division and that's not the case. They're on top of the Atlantic
00:41:59
division. And the sixth place team in the Atlantic, the Ottawa Senators have the same number of points as the first
00:42:06
place team in the Pacific, for example. So, they're sitting above the Lightning,
00:42:11
above the Canadians, above the Red Wings, above the Bruins, and above the Senators. And even the Leafs are down
00:42:15
there. Well, the Leafs are suffering now with Austin Matthews out. But, >> um, strong division and they're at the
00:42:20
top of it. >> Yeah, that's right. And uh I I should point out since we're talking about kind
00:42:24
of playoff streaks, I think the Detroit Red Wings have the second longest playoff drought at like 9 or 10 years.
00:42:32
And they're looking likely to I I mean they're not guaranteed to make the
00:42:36
playoffs like the Sabres are essentially. But Detroit is like likely to break their streak as well this year.
00:42:42
>> It's so strange to me that they've been off because they were so good for so
00:42:46
long. It's weird that they were so bad. Whereas like the Sabres have never really done much in the NHL. The other
00:42:52
team that we've got some affinity for Shane's given me love for the Sabres
00:42:56
because I spent two years I cut my hockey teeth basically on the Sabres in the in the mid90s.
00:43:00
>> You saw them at their peak. >> Yeah. Peak. Exactly. I They saw them at
00:43:04
They got a playoff series win. I saw the playoff series win. That's how that's
00:43:08
how peak it was. Um the Penguins with with uh relatively new management still relatively new ownership, relatively new
00:43:18
management were not supposed to be any good this year. They're in rebuilding
00:43:20
mode. Have been in rebuilding mode and they're sitting there at number two in
00:43:23
the Metropolitan Division. It'll be interesting to see whether they can hang
00:43:27
on. They they they kind of seem to be outperforming early on, but then that outperformance has persisted. So maybe
00:43:34
depends. You know, one of the things that they did, Shane, they got a new coach this year and they went they went
00:43:39
to a guy they knew was great build a great team builder, good in the locker room, good with relationships and it
00:43:48
could be that some of that outperformance is a new coach and and and unex maybe, you know, it's a serious
00:43:54
I think it's a great management team. So maybe they made an especially good coaching hire that pulls that the talent
00:43:58
of the the guys up a little bit. >> Yeah. I think also corre like Sydney Crosby's clearly an amazing leader uh on
00:44:07
on the ice and kind of has had I think part of I think there them continuing maybe longer than we expected is Sydney
00:44:13
Crosby continuing longer than he expected or anybody expected of him at the top of his game both in the
00:44:19
leadership because you know the leadership that he contributes but also still being an elite level player. I I
00:44:25
think the Penguins were probably kind of >> know knowing they'd still get the
00:44:29
leadership part, but still getting the elite player part, I think, is an unexpected bonus for them the last
00:44:34
couple years. >> That's interesting, Shane. And it is an interesting question. Like we we we we
00:44:39
know some of these psychological effects matter. It's just hard to pin them down.
00:44:42
it. How how much do you think it matters when a team you this maybe young guys, some unproven guys, maybe on the roster
00:44:50
they don't look that talented, but they're in the middle of them is one of
00:44:53
the all-time greats in the history of the NHL who still plays at a high level. What do you think that does to the
00:44:59
motivation, the practice practices, you know, the discipline of the rest of the guys around him? You know, it has to
00:45:04
elevate it. It has to make it and also like how many more seasons does he have? you know, we have to give what we can
00:45:09
now to make sure that his season there has to be some of that in there. No. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, I I I think so. I but I
00:45:16
think that also is probably a a subtle function of how that player respon you know responds to their late career and
00:45:23
the leadership they show whether they end up still just being kind of more of a self you know I I think you know I
00:45:29
think players age gracefully or not gracefully psychologically as well as athletically in a way that it's it's
00:45:36
hard to kind of quantify but is I think super important to kind of team culture as you were sort of suggesting
00:45:42
>> what you're saying is he he's no Aaron Rogers is that what I'm hearing from
00:45:46
Great example. I was trying to I was, you know, I'm like, do I want to just throw somebody I I I was trying in my
00:45:51
mind to come up with somebody who did not age well in this particular way or somebody. Yeah. Who held on to their
00:45:56
position way too long. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. And maybe not the best leader at
00:46:00
this late stage of career. Um I'm happy to throw Rogers on the best. He's been
00:46:04
too much of a queen uh the last couple of years. Um anyway, all right. Why don't we wrap it there? Fun discussion.
00:46:11
Glad to be back with you guys. It's time to really pay more attention to hockey
00:46:15
as the season ramps up. Um, for the whole team, Eric Bradley went absencia. Audi Winer who just ducked out has
00:46:22
business in New York. Shane Jensen from the campus of the University of Pennsylvania. This has been Kade Massie.
00:46:27
Thanks to Dion Simpkins making everything happen behind the scenes. Aaron Tran stepping in and Deionstead
00:46:34
today. To Marissa Raina, our producer for Deep Patel, the boss lady. And to you guys for listening. Thanks for being
00:46:40
here. Come back and join us next time between now and then. Enjoy your sports.