00:00:00
Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball.
00:00:04
Welcome to a full hour of sports
00:00:05
analytics here on the Wharton podcast
00:00:09
network. This is Kade Massie hosting
00:00:11
this week with two of my usual three
00:00:14
co-host. Audi Winer is here. I think
00:00:16
he's coming in from New York. Shane
00:00:18
Jensen is here. Looks like he is on
00:00:21
campus. I'm guessing Eric Bradlo's out
00:00:23
and about. Eric is doing Eric things.
00:00:25
He'll be back. We are delighted to have
00:00:28
a first-time guest, a a longtime friend,
00:00:30
first-time guest. Brandt Tillis is with
00:00:33
us. Brandt is a sitting executive in the
00:00:36
NFL, executive vice president for
00:00:38
football operations with the Carolina
00:00:41
Panthers. He is, I think, rolling into
00:00:43
his third year in that position. Having
00:00:46
come over from the Kansas City Chiefs,
00:00:49
he was with the Chiefs for multiple
00:00:50
championships. He came into the world, I
00:00:54
think it's fair to say, as kind of a cap
00:00:56
guy and helped do a lot of the
00:00:58
negotiating there with Kansas City.
00:01:00
Before KC, he was at the league office.
00:01:03
Um, and before that,
00:01:06
interned with the Raiders. Brandt, glad
00:01:09
to have you on the show. Thanks for
00:01:10
making time for us.
00:01:11
>> Hey, Kaden, the crew. Thanks, thanks for
00:01:13
having me. You You took my my joke I was
00:01:16
going to make. think I was going to make
00:01:17
the first time longtime joke because
00:01:20
>> I've been
00:01:20
>> you're actually a listener.
00:01:22
>> Yes.
00:01:23
>> That's awesome. Well,
00:01:24
>> you guys you guys helped get me through
00:01:25
through COVID and understanding what the
00:01:27
heck was happening there, too. So, the
00:01:29
show's always been been great. But then
00:01:30
I got to do one quick shout out here,
00:01:32
which is um Shane is friends with a good
00:01:38
buddy of mine from high school who I was
00:01:40
shocked to find out he is not really a
00:01:42
sports fan and he's a lawyer from
00:01:44
Denver. His name is Ross Ziv. And Ross
00:01:46
texted me one day and said and said, '
00:01:48
Do you know Eric Eager? And I was like,
00:01:50
"Yeah, of course I know Eric. He's
00:01:52
amazing." And he said, "Uh, my friend
00:01:54
Shane knows him." Like, how do you how
00:01:56
do you know the Wharton Moneyball
00:01:58
Analytics guy? You're a lawyer in Denver
00:02:00
who doesn't even like sports,
00:02:02
>> right?
00:02:04
>> That's great. See, I'm glad to know our
00:02:05
footprint expands. That's awesome. As
00:02:07
well,
00:02:07
>> I remember I was I was hanging with him
00:02:09
last summer and uh talking about just uh
00:02:11
I mean, actually talking about the work
00:02:13
you guys are doing down there in
00:02:14
Carolina. uh mostly um you know I think
00:02:18
it's it's been a early success for sure.
00:02:20
>> Well yeah hopefully it was a good
00:02:21
conversation man.
00:02:22
>> We have to say that I mean Eric is a
00:02:24
multiple time guest of the show and and
00:02:26
and a good friend over the years. He's
00:02:28
an example of we've built relationships
00:02:31
in 12 years of the show. It's more than
00:02:33
just the show now. We have this these
00:02:35
relationships we didn't have before and
00:02:36
Eager is one of those guys. You kind of
00:02:38
stole him from us in some ways Brandt. I
00:02:40
mean, he used to be able to talk
00:02:41
publicly and say things and write
00:02:43
provocatively and make people mad.
00:02:45
>> He is a unicorn for us. He's he's
00:02:48
obviously very smart, very analytic
00:02:50
savvy, but he can talk to anyone in the
00:02:53
building about any kind of problem that
00:02:56
he can help solve or or that that that
00:03:00
they may have that he can bridge a gap
00:03:01
to. I mean, he spends time with our
00:03:03
coaches, with with our scouting staff,
00:03:06
with obviously with Dan and myself and
00:03:08
coach Canales and um and as well as some
00:03:12
folks in our business operations. So,
00:03:14
he's he's all over the place and he's he
00:03:16
does excellent work for us. He's
00:03:17
completely exceeded expectations.
00:03:20
>> Well, that's that's great to hear. And
00:03:22
it it strikes me that your job, you
00:03:24
know, you moved over two plus years ago.
00:03:26
We talk about how important staff hires
00:03:28
are for coaches, but I can imagine that
00:03:30
it was very important decision for you.
00:03:32
Like, who do you bring in to work with
00:03:33
you as you move over to Carolina, and he
00:03:35
was one of the guys that you recruited
00:03:37
to bring in? Shane alluded to it. Um,
00:03:40
you took over a club that had just won
00:03:42
two games the year before, five games in
00:03:45
the first year, 24 season, and then
00:03:47
eight games last year. So, that the
00:03:50
trajectory is definitely in the right
00:03:51
direction. Can you give us some sense of
00:03:54
what the building feels like this
00:03:55
spring? What what are the what are the
00:03:57
questions? What are the enthusiasms?
00:03:59
What are you most working on? Any
00:04:00
anything you can tell us about where you
00:04:02
guys are at the moment?
00:04:04
>> First of all, we're just we're very
00:04:05
proud of the season we just had. This
00:04:07
was the first division championship that
00:04:09
the club has had in and I believe 10
00:04:11
seasons. And we had a home playoff game
00:04:15
and the the crowd and the atmosphere was
00:04:18
was unbelievable. Um it was right up
00:04:21
there with with some of the crowds we
00:04:23
had there in Kansas City during our runs
00:04:25
there. Uh it was it was truly special.
00:04:28
You know, we couldn't we couldn't finish
00:04:30
the game out unfortunately, but we're
00:04:32
very proud of the season that we had and
00:04:34
we're very fortunate to be able to
00:04:35
continue to build on it. So, we're very
00:04:37
excited about all that we've done in
00:04:38
free agency. We signed uh a few a few
00:04:42
really good players so far and and then
00:04:45
we have a whole draft in front of us.
00:04:46
And so things are things are certainly
00:04:48
trending up here in Carolina and and so
00:04:51
I you know I think I think just the the
00:04:54
continuity that we have, the support
00:04:55
that we have from ownership, uh those
00:04:57
are all the things that we're really
00:04:59
leaning into at this point.
00:05:00
>> Ownership is a drum we beat occasionally
00:05:03
around here. It took me a long time as a
00:05:06
sports fan to realize how important
00:05:07
ownership was. As soon as I started
00:05:08
working in sports, I'm like, "Oh god,
00:05:10
the whole thing's driven by owners
00:05:12
essentially." Turns out shouldn't have
00:05:13
been surprising. Can you give us some an
00:05:15
example of when you said supportive
00:05:18
ownership like what's one way concrete
00:05:21
manifestation of that when you feel
00:05:23
happy with the ownership you have as
00:05:25
sitting in your position what does that
00:05:27
look like certainly um in free agency
00:05:30
just last week um we were we laid out
00:05:34
our plan to to Dave Ter about look we're
00:05:39
gonna we're going to go after Jaylen
00:05:40
Phillips and it's going to cost a lot of
00:05:43
money and it and we're going to have to
00:05:46
pay him potentially $30 million a year.
00:05:49
And then we're also going to follow that
00:05:52
up and go after go after a really good
00:05:54
defensive playmaker. And it that's also
00:05:58
going to cost a lot of money. And these
00:06:00
two and these these two deals don't come
00:06:02
without risk. And he he hears us out. He
00:06:06
he he pushes back on a lot of what what
00:06:09
we say, not to not to say no, but just
00:06:11
to just to test. All right. How how
00:06:14
resolved are you? Have you thought about
00:06:15
this? Have you thought about that? And
00:06:17
we get to a really good place together.
00:06:20
And then he says, "Great. You have like
00:06:22
you you have my permission. And you need
00:06:26
and you need to go and execute this
00:06:28
plan." And so we're able to to do that.
00:06:30
We're able to act fast. We don't have to
00:06:32
go check with him after every little
00:06:34
thing, every little move during a
00:06:36
negotiation.
00:06:37
Um he knows he knows what the parameters
00:06:40
are that we're we're we're working
00:06:41
within. and then we can just we can just
00:06:44
go and execute.
00:06:45
>> Well, I guess just kind of following up
00:06:47
on sort of the success that you guys saw
00:06:49
last season, I I feel like there was
00:06:51
several teams this past season that
00:06:54
essentially went from worst to first. I
00:06:56
mean, I'll count Carolina in there as
00:06:58
well, even though I it's kind of a you
00:07:00
weren't actually I don't think worst in
00:07:02
the previous year, just tied for it, but
00:07:03
like New England also Chicago. Do you
00:07:06
think there I I mean that happens? It's
00:07:10
not like it's completely unusual that
00:07:11
that would a worst to first worst would
00:07:12
happen, but I I feel like three in one
00:07:15
season or or or like that many. Do you
00:07:17
think there's something is there some
00:07:20
aspect of today's like league or or or
00:07:23
you know the way things are done that
00:07:25
that le can teams can kind of turn
00:07:28
change their fortunes around quickly
00:07:30
more quickly than they used to?
00:07:32
>> Yes. I I think I think you're going to
00:07:35
see it a lot more. Um and and I think a
00:07:38
lot of it has to do with just a rising
00:07:40
salary cap and the fact that that
00:07:43
they're that uh teams you'll see every
00:07:45
year you'll see a team with $100 million
00:07:47
in a room, $80 million, whatever
00:07:49
whatever it is. And so teams are able to
00:07:51
to to kind of propel themselves quickly.
00:07:56
Um, I think I think for us in particular
00:08:01
when when I came in here and and Dan
00:08:04
took over as GM and and we had Coach
00:08:07
Canales here, you saw that a little bit.
00:08:10
We we signed a couple of good free
00:08:12
agents and then then the next year we
00:08:15
signed a couple of more. So, ours was
00:08:17
more of of a slow burn, but you'll also
00:08:20
see you also see some teams like really
00:08:23
jump in and then, you know, what they do
00:08:26
from there is up to them.
00:08:28
>> The the rising cap, do you kind of feel
00:08:29
like that means that do you kind of see
00:08:33
a kind of an increasing role for free
00:08:36
agency actually in the future versus
00:08:38
kind of d you know the comparing
00:08:40
drafting free agency is kind of the two
00:08:42
main team building kind of actions. Does
00:08:45
the rising cap kind of continue to give
00:08:47
more preference towards free agency in
00:08:49
your mind?
00:08:50
>> No, I don't. I I think that I think
00:08:52
teams
00:08:54
I think that teams now um it's just like
00:08:58
it was 20 years ago when I first came in
00:09:01
the league, which is the best way to
00:09:03
build a long sustaining
00:09:05
team that that contends every year is to
00:09:08
draft, develop, and retain. So you can
00:09:12
you can get a a jump start on free
00:09:14
agency of course, but you still need to
00:09:17
draft and you still need to keep those
00:09:18
players to keep your your culture and
00:09:20
your continuity going.
00:09:21
>> Free agents are expensive and so when
00:09:23
they if they if they explode on you, you
00:09:26
have to take the hit if I mean if you
00:09:27
particular if you backended money and
00:09:29
then all of a sudden it comes up yet and
00:09:30
that destroys your cal salary cap. But a
00:09:32
lot of first round picks, they don't all
00:09:34
have to be great or a lot of picks in
00:09:36
general just have to have a few that
00:09:38
turn into something. But I I guess my
00:09:40
question is the NIL has made a is making
00:09:43
a huge change in co college football.
00:09:46
What is it doing to the the drafting
00:09:50
kind of climate um at the professional
00:09:52
level? One would argue that maybe the
00:09:54
players are staying a little longer
00:09:56
because they get good money and maybe
00:09:58
you know more about them. I'm just
00:10:00
completely um at a loss to understand
00:10:02
what that's going to do um at the draft
00:10:04
level. Have you what what are you seeing
00:10:05
there? Certainly players are older
00:10:07
coming into the league. We're seeing
00:10:09
that this year. A lot of the a lot of
00:10:10
the top players in the draft are are
00:10:12
older players. So that's just something
00:10:14
new that that we're going to have to
00:10:15
deal with uh leaguewide. Um
00:10:20
and then the other piece too, which
00:10:24
which is more of a positive I think is
00:10:26
is these players have money in college,
00:10:29
so we can see how money is going to
00:10:31
affect them in the pros. that that used
00:10:33
to be a big a big jump for us to make is
00:10:36
all right how's money how's money going
00:10:37
to change this this person and and now
00:10:40
now we kind of know what it is so there
00:10:44
and and we we haven't found equilibrium
00:10:48
yet with this NIL and and transfer
00:10:51
portal that that the college system has
00:10:54
like I I I think it's going to take a
00:10:56
few years for us to to fully understand
00:10:58
how things are going to function um but
00:11:01
just based on how things are now.
00:11:03
There's there's some positive and
00:11:04
there's some negative and and we're just
00:11:06
we're just trying to navigate that
00:11:07
ourselves.
00:11:08
>> Brent, I just want to hear a little bit
00:11:09
more about the comment you just made and
00:11:11
it's fascinating to me and I had not
00:11:12
thought about it at all, but I've heard
00:11:14
highlevel professional basketball
00:11:16
coaches say this is one of the if they
00:11:18
could know one thing, it would be how's
00:11:20
this person going to respond to great
00:11:22
wealth? And he may be talking about a
00:11:24
19-y old kid, so they're a little bit
00:11:26
older in the NFL, but that was literally
00:11:28
the thing he most wanted to know. And
00:11:30
you're saying, well, that's benefit of
00:11:32
NIL is that we get to see that. So my
00:11:33
question back to you is, do you get to
00:11:35
see it? And now I'm not asking for your
00:11:36
trade secrets because I know this kind
00:11:38
of information is what you what your
00:11:41
personnel department traffic's in, but
00:11:43
do you think you're able to get some
00:11:44
signal on how a player responds to
00:11:47
having anywhere from a few hundred
00:11:49
thousand to a few million dollars in his
00:11:51
checking account?
00:11:52
>> A little bit. Yeah. I I wouldn't say
00:11:55
it's it's earthshattering by any
00:11:57
stretch, but but you you do see players
00:12:01
in in the co in the college game who are
00:12:03
coasting a little bit or you you more
00:12:06
positively and and more often you see
00:12:08
players who are leaning into it more,
00:12:10
you know, and so now look, there is a
00:12:12
downside to all of this too, which is
00:12:15
there's a transactional element to to
00:12:17
the college game now, which is which is
00:12:21
hard for us to handle in the pros
00:12:23
because there so much of of football is
00:12:27
kind of buying into your locker room,
00:12:29
your teammates, playing for each other,
00:12:31
playing for your city, for your
00:12:32
organization. And and it's easier to to
00:12:36
continue that uh that narrative in
00:12:39
college when you're playing for a a
00:12:42
great school like Texas or Alabama or or
00:12:46
one of those programs. But now, um, you
00:12:49
know, it it we just got to kind of break
00:12:53
them in a little bit different now.
00:12:54
>> Yeah. Well, I'm really interested in the
00:12:56
question of this is a long-standing
00:12:58
question about quarterbacks. Does a team
00:13:00
in order to be successful have to have a
00:13:01
quarterback that you're not paying huge
00:13:03
amounts of money for? Is that something
00:13:05
that's that's a really a useful thing to
00:13:07
to do or is it
00:13:10
or or not? I mean, is the way to to
00:13:11
succeed to have a a long-term contract
00:13:14
with a really great quarterback that's
00:13:16
not overwhelming or have a a a
00:13:18
quarterback that's not amazing, um,
00:13:20
maybe only average that you're not
00:13:22
paying a lot of money for? It's a hard
00:13:24
question to answer and I I always go
00:13:28
towards
00:13:31
regardless of position, but specifically
00:13:33
with quarterbacks, you got to have a
00:13:35
good one. He's got to be good. So,
00:13:39
if you know that you've got one, keep
00:13:41
them. And obviously, you have to make a
00:13:44
a business decision at some point of can
00:13:46
we continue to build around this player
00:13:48
knowing what what we know about him. But
00:13:52
it's it's hard to move off of a
00:13:54
quarterback and no one's done it yet.
00:13:57
>> Uh I do think someone will do it
00:13:59
eventually.
00:14:00
>> What do you mean by do it? Do what?
00:14:01
meaning no one's no one's done what I
00:14:03
think Audi is getting at, which is have
00:14:06
a have a quarterback under under a
00:14:08
rookie contract
00:14:10
>> and then move off of him and get on to
00:14:12
another rookie. Like have have success
00:14:14
with that player and then move off of
00:14:16
him
00:14:17
>> and get onto another lower pay.
00:14:19
>> The way I think about there's a
00:14:20
contingency table of like good not good
00:14:22
cheap not cheap. And the trouble is if
00:14:25
it's good it doesn't good and cheap are
00:14:27
a cell that's only temporary. You can
00:14:30
never lock in good and cheap for a whole
00:14:32
career because it good means not good
00:14:35
means not cheap in the end, right? So,
00:14:37
it's kind of like Yeah. I I I feel like
00:14:41
I again it would be interesting to hear
00:14:42
what the te what teams are thinking, but
00:14:44
like it it seems so chancy still to kind
00:14:47
of or getting a a a new good young
00:14:51
quarterback via the draft is still a
00:14:55
stochastic enough or high high
00:14:57
uncertainty enough prospect that I feel
00:14:59
like that's probably one of the reasons
00:15:01
that teams never kind of make that
00:15:04
progression from like, oh, this person's
00:15:06
good, but they're no longer going to be
00:15:08
cheap where we'll go in a different
00:15:10
direction. I think it's always if
00:15:12
they're good, they become expensive. And
00:15:13
I think the teams that get kind of, I
00:15:16
guess, locked in to the saddle point or
00:15:18
whatever are the teams that have the
00:15:20
kind of just average quarterback, but
00:15:22
they have to
00:15:23
>> pay full market,
00:15:23
>> pay them like they're good.
00:15:25
>> Yeah.
00:15:26
>> Well, is isn't there some variation? I
00:15:28
mean, right, you still don't have to pay
00:15:30
even a a rookie a quarterback on his
00:15:33
second contract that's only average.
00:15:36
They don't you don't have to pay them
00:15:37
massive amounts of money. I'm not sure I
00:15:38
know the the numbers exactly, but
00:15:40
they're not the most expensive. Is that
00:15:42
or am I wrong on that? Just to keep
00:15:45
someone who you want is just going to
00:15:46
cost you the maximum. That's that.
00:15:48
>> Yeah. I guess I don't know if Brand
00:15:51
whether we can brainstorm what you mean
00:15:53
by like an average quarterback. Like
00:15:55
Daniel Jones is certainly probably,
00:15:58
you know, somebody like Daniel Jones is
00:16:00
an example of somebody who like maybe
00:16:02
average is generous, maybe it's not, but
00:16:04
he just you had to pay him basically.
00:16:07
He's no he is, you know, no longer cheap
00:16:10
by any stretch of the imagination. He's
00:16:12
he he's getting paid like an expense a
00:16:14
good quarterback regardless of whether
00:16:16
he's actually good or not.
00:16:18
>> Yeah. And it'll be super interesting to
00:16:20
see to see what happens with the Colts
00:16:22
in the next few years. They've got
00:16:24
they've got a great coach and and a
00:16:26
great GM and and and I think they have a
00:16:29
good plan. So, it'll it'll be fun to
00:16:31
watch. And and that and that's what's
00:16:33
kind of cool about my job and and what
00:16:36
I've been able to do for the last 20
00:16:38
years in the NFL is just watch how other
00:16:40
teams handle uh handle these issues and
00:16:43
and what's working and and what's not
00:16:45
and then try to use those to the best I
00:16:48
can with the team I'm working for. And
00:16:51
um you know we've had some success here.
00:16:54
We had a lot of success in Kansas City.
00:16:55
We had some you know some less success
00:16:58
at points in Kansas City too. So um
00:17:02
that's it's the fun part about about
00:17:04
football is just seeing seeing how all
00:17:06
this plays out.
00:17:07
>> Brent, you had a chance when you moved
00:17:09
from KC to Carolina two plus years ago.
00:17:11
So you were doing your first draft that
00:17:14
you're coming up on your third. You were
00:17:15
doing your first draft two years ago.
00:17:16
You come in, you and Morgan and the rest
00:17:18
of the team build out your draft
00:17:21
process. Now, you were subject to the
00:17:23
scouting that had been done over the
00:17:25
previous nine months. I mean, the
00:17:26
scouting begins almost a year ahead of
00:17:27
time, basically a year ahead of time.
00:17:29
But that was a chance for you to take
00:17:31
these learnings from what you'd seen at
00:17:33
KC, from what you'd seen other clubs do
00:17:35
and kind of build relatively from
00:17:37
scratch. Relatively.
00:17:39
What were some ideas that you were
00:17:40
trying to put in place when you got
00:17:42
there around the draft and the scouts?
00:17:45
And I know you're just one member of the
00:17:46
team, but you were part of the team
00:17:48
designing that process based on your
00:17:49
experience.
00:17:51
>> Yeah. So, the the the biggest thing was
00:17:53
just having an an inclusive process and
00:17:55
not siloing uh people, not siloing our
00:17:58
scouts, our coaches, uh any of our staff
00:18:01
members who would who could have a say
00:18:03
in the in the draft. And look, let let's
00:18:05
get all the ideas out there. Let's get
00:18:07
them all on the table and let's talk
00:18:08
about them in an open forum. Uh so
00:18:11
creating creating that security uh
00:18:14
within the draft room was was critical.
00:18:16
Uh being being film based, watching the
00:18:20
watching the film, watching the tape um
00:18:23
was was also important. That's something
00:18:25
I learned in Kansas City. I
00:18:27
>> as opposed to what, Brett?
00:18:28
>> As opposed to just relying on data. um
00:18:32
which which was which was kind of a cool
00:18:36
um turning point for me at the Chiefs
00:18:39
was
00:18:40
um when when John Dorsey first took over
00:18:43
as GM there. John had me sit in the
00:18:45
draft room with him and he had me go
00:18:46
through all of the combine measurables
00:18:48
and all the stuff and see if we could
00:18:50
figure anything out from all the data
00:18:52
that that we had and I would come up
00:18:55
with all these players who I thought
00:18:57
could be could be really good and and
00:19:00
John was amazing because John would sit
00:19:02
there with me and he would point out
00:19:04
like okay you like this guy but he has
00:19:06
no instinct. See, look, he's run the
00:19:08
wrong way here, or you like this guy,
00:19:10
but look, he's getting torqued here, you
00:19:12
know. And so, it was just all of those
00:19:15
all of those lessons. And then and then
00:19:17
when Brett took over as GM there, too,
00:19:20
it was it became very it became very
00:19:22
film based, but also use the data to to
00:19:25
push back on on what we believe and make
00:19:28
sure that we are right or to point out
00:19:31
something that maybe we're missing.
00:19:33
>> Yeah. Right. So, it it goes both ways.
00:19:36
you're leading with the what you had to
00:19:38
learn coming in as more the quant guy,
00:19:40
the cap guy, the numbers guy, you had to
00:19:42
learn appreciation for the film, but it
00:19:44
it certainly goes both ways. It's
00:19:46
amazing for me to hear you say you lead
00:19:48
the first thing you said was an
00:19:49
inclusive draft room. Um, after spending
00:19:53
whatever I've spent working around this
00:19:55
stuff, maybe 20 years, I have kind of
00:19:57
concluded that it's mostly a culture
00:19:59
issue and and so you're talking about
00:20:01
culture. You're talking about a culture
00:20:02
where kind of you'll take an edge from
00:20:04
anywhere, right? It's a hard thing to do
00:20:06
what you're trying to do. It's
00:20:07
borderline impossible. You'll take an
00:20:09
edge from anywhere, but that might be an
00:20:11
unexpected place.
00:20:13
>> Yeah, absolutely. And and the thing too
00:20:15
about evaluating is
00:20:18
a lot of it has to do with,
00:20:22
let's call it, job descriptions. And
00:20:24
sometimes a misaluation of a player has
00:20:29
more to do with with with not having the
00:20:32
proper job description for what we're
00:20:34
asking that guy to do. And so just
00:20:37
making sure that we're all on the same
00:20:39
page about that is is important as well.
00:20:42
>> So we talk a lot about drafts and I
00:20:44
think it's one of the reasons we do that
00:20:45
because it's one of the most
00:20:46
statistically interesting and intricate
00:20:48
thing for we analysts to think about.
00:20:50
But every year after the draft, after
00:20:52
the draft happens, every team gets its
00:20:54
draft rated. Now, you know, the pundits
00:20:57
do that, right? Some get an A, some get
00:20:59
a B, some get a C, whatever it is.
00:21:02
Do you think those ratings are have any
00:21:04
merit? You don't know for a few years
00:21:07
how how good a draft is. Also, the the
00:21:10
our the draft analysts, they they do a
00:21:13
great job of of understanding what's
00:21:16
happening in the league, how the teams
00:21:17
are seeing these players, and they and
00:21:19
they're able to to me to mesh that with
00:21:22
their own evals, but they're just one
00:21:25
person, whereas we have an army of
00:21:30
dozens of people in this building that
00:21:32
are watching all these players and and
00:21:34
understanding who they are. So we have
00:21:37
much more complete information than a
00:21:39
single analyst does. And so then we are
00:21:42
rated by the analyst based on the
00:21:44
analyst's perception of our draft which
00:21:47
is um which I think is is incomplete.
00:21:51
And then also it takes it sometimes it
00:21:54
takes these guys two or three years to
00:21:56
be to grow into their own as players. So
00:21:58
we don't we we just don't know enough.
00:22:01
And so I I we don't take a whole lot of
00:22:04
stock into into that. Um, obviously we
00:22:07
see them and and our fans get excited
00:22:11
about them either way and we just deal
00:22:14
with it. But but the players go in and
00:22:16
they they still put in the work and they
00:22:18
and they do, you know, as as good of a
00:22:20
job as they can.
00:22:21
>> I just my only followup is that that I
00:22:23
know that for example in baseball the
00:22:25
the evaluations of the draft class just
00:22:27
don't don't have any signal. They don't
00:22:28
predict anything more than just the
00:22:30
position um the in the draft itself
00:22:33
predicts. And that's essentially what
00:22:35
what I was wondering about in football
00:22:36
is after the draft has happened and you
00:22:38
see what someone's done. You're
00:22:39
essentially you're essentially saying
00:22:41
that the teams know so much more than
00:22:43
the pundits outside can possibly
00:22:45
evaluate that you won't really know
00:22:46
until it's until that the seasons have
00:22:49
un unwound themselves and you've
00:22:51
observed and then you can go back and
00:22:52
see how you did.
00:22:53
>> Do you do that? Do is there kind of like
00:22:55
I mean obviously you wouldn't want to
00:22:57
base this on some pundit's opinion but
00:22:59
kind of inhouse
00:23:01
uh do you kind of like do you guys have
00:23:03
sort of some sort of systematic like oh
00:23:05
here's here's the how do we do in the 20
00:23:08
now now that we we're far enough out
00:23:09
from the 2023 draft or the 2024 draft
00:23:13
how how did we do I don't know how much
00:23:15
kind of very I I mean I'm sure there's
00:23:17
very indirect process kind of like
00:23:20
optimization you guys are doing I don't
00:23:21
know how much you're actually evaluating
00:23:23
your own past decisions. I
00:23:25
>> have no doubt that Eric Eager and his
00:23:28
team will come up with some way to grade
00:23:30
past drafts. We haven't done it yet. I
00:23:33
do just sometimes anecdotally go through
00:23:38
past drafts that I've been a part of to
00:23:39
say like what what could we have done
00:23:41
here or what should we have done here?
00:23:43
Um but look like it is a decision-making
00:23:48
enterprise. So we it is like usually
00:23:52
we're making the best decision at the
00:23:55
time with the information that that we
00:23:57
have. And so I can justify every pick
00:24:01
that's ever been made by going through
00:24:04
by going through that way. Now, at the
00:24:06
same time, saying
00:24:08
maybe we should have done this instead,
00:24:10
or wow, we got lucky that we weren't
00:24:12
thinking about this.
00:24:13
>> I I had the chance to sit with an NBA
00:24:15
team one time that did that two years
00:24:17
later. They had the entire anybody that
00:24:20
was involved with this with the draft
00:24:21
process in the room talking about they
00:24:23
just went through the, you know, the all
00:24:25
all whatever it is, 60 picks in the
00:24:27
first two rounds and they just talked
00:24:28
about what they each thought and how
00:24:29
it's played out in the first years. And
00:24:31
the stunning thing to me about that was
00:24:32
that it wasn't just the scouts talking.
00:24:35
It wasn't even just the head of
00:24:36
personnel. It was the GM. There were
00:24:38
owner representatives in the room and
00:24:40
everybody was saying, "Yeah, I got this
00:24:41
wrong." It was remarkable
00:24:44
um embrace of humility in a certain way.
00:24:46
And that's way I mean it's so it's so
00:24:48
hard what y'all are trying to do. It's
00:24:49
so uncertain. Anything I think you can
00:24:51
do to underscore, yeah, we know this is
00:24:54
hard. We're going to get it wrong
00:24:55
sometimes helps with that culture. I've
00:24:57
got a question for you, specific
00:24:59
question for you. the the the the very
00:25:01
numbersy the analyticsy guys who will
00:25:03
evaluate a draft after the fact will own
00:25:06
up to the fact that they have no idea
00:25:07
which defensive tackle is going to be
00:25:09
best or which edge is going to be best
00:25:10
and they'll evaluate a draft on two
00:25:12
things and only two things. One is draft
00:25:14
capital. Did they trade up and burn some
00:25:16
capital? Do they borrow some picks from
00:25:18
the future or do they trade down? And
00:25:20
the other thing that analytic analysts
00:25:22
will do is uh consider position value.
00:25:25
And I wonder, Brandt, if you think the
00:25:27
analytics community takes position value
00:25:29
too far. I wonder this myself because I
00:25:32
see some very sharp teams. Take a center
00:25:35
in the first round or take a safety in
00:25:37
the first round. And I'm curious your
00:25:40
philosophy on position value because the
00:25:42
Edalus crowd would say you should do
00:25:44
nothing in the first round except take
00:25:46
quarterbacks, edges, and wide outs or
00:25:48
maybe left tackles. That's it. Just
00:25:51
based on the position value. position is
00:25:54
something that that we've talked about
00:25:57
in every draft I've been a part of since
00:26:01
I've worked for a team. So, my first
00:26:03
year with the Chiefs was 2010. We
00:26:06
drafted Eric Barry with the fifth pick
00:26:08
and and I remember
00:26:11
>> safety and I remember there was a lot of
00:26:13
discussion about does it make sense to
00:26:15
draft a safety but you just need to get
00:26:18
an impact players if you're picking in
00:26:20
the first round especially if you're
00:26:21
picking high get an impact player. So,
00:26:24
if you can draft, think about this. If
00:26:26
you could draft a Hall of Fame center at
00:26:29
whatever pick you're at,
00:26:32
would you rather do that or would you
00:26:34
rather draft uh a guy that's a starting
00:26:37
edge for eight years but never really,
00:26:40
you know, does never really stands out,
00:26:43
never really makes a great impact. Which
00:26:46
which would you rather have? I
00:26:47
personally would rather have the Hall of
00:26:48
Fame player. So,
00:26:49
>> say more about that. say more about that
00:26:51
because I think it's hard for those of
00:26:52
us outside the building to appreciate
00:26:54
what when you get to that level the
00:26:56
contribution a kind of under the radar
00:26:58
position like center makes or guard or
00:27:00
nose tackle. Sure. You you can't have
00:27:05
enough good players on your team now.
00:27:07
Yes. Would you would you want to have
00:27:09
Miles Garrett? Yes. Like when you're
00:27:11
talking about a Hall of Fame player at a
00:27:12
premium position, yes, you want that you
00:27:14
want that player on your team.
00:27:17
But when but if you're convicted that
00:27:19
somebody is going to make an impact on
00:27:21
your roster and be a force multiplier,
00:27:23
go and get them. Don't worry about the
00:27:25
position. Just get the player.
00:27:28
>> I think you just used a term that's the
00:27:30
key and kind of deludes analysts in the
00:27:32
NFL. Force multiplier. We're still
00:27:34
valuing these guys based on what we can
00:27:36
say about their contribution directly
00:27:38
and we don't capture their contribution
00:27:40
to other players contributions. It's a
00:27:43
force multiplier when he makes other
00:27:45
players better.
00:27:47
We're That is kind of the um holy grail
00:27:50
still in analytics. Grant, we're going
00:27:52
to run out of time with you and I want I
00:27:53
just got to ask you at this time of year
00:27:55
I have to ask you. We talked about
00:27:56
quarterbacks. We're talking about the
00:27:57
draft. You were there and one of the
00:28:00
great quarterback picks of all time. Can
00:28:02
you give us now, you know, mostly I
00:28:03
don't trust people's memories, but
00:28:05
you've been telling the story for a long
00:28:06
time. So, can you tell us
00:28:09
when what you guys thought you had when
00:28:12
you drafted Mahomes and then when you
00:28:14
learned what you really had at what
00:28:16
point and how did you learn what you
00:28:18
really had?
00:28:18
>> I think there was there was a lot of
00:28:20
excitement about what what Pat could be
00:28:22
when we drafted him and and Brett Vch uh
00:28:27
was not the GM at the time, but but was
00:28:30
was pushing for Pat for a whole year.
00:28:34
And so I think we were excited that we
00:28:36
could get somebody that we had been
00:28:40
talking about for a year. I think I
00:28:42
think that was for me like that was a
00:28:45
relief. I saw all the arm talent, right?
00:28:48
Like you you you see that on on on the
00:28:51
tape and and the numbers that that we
00:28:53
were running uh from an analytic
00:28:55
standpoint were also also very good with
00:28:57
Pat. I think there was just excitement
00:29:00
about the potential and then his first
00:29:03
training camp.
00:29:05
It was like appointment viewing to go
00:29:08
watch and Brett's talked about this
00:29:09
before but to go watch our second team
00:29:11
offense and he made he made this one
00:29:14
play and if I had if I had my old phone
00:29:17
I I saved it on my phone. Um he made
00:29:21
this one play where he he rolled out and
00:29:24
you thought he was just going to run out
00:29:25
of bounds and the next thing you know he
00:29:27
fires the ball
00:29:29
up the sideline and and our receiver was
00:29:33
running he was running back across the
00:29:36
field. He saw the ball but this a
00:29:39
quarterback didn't and this receiver
00:29:40
just ran over this quarterback who
00:29:42
thought there was no way this ball's
00:29:43
coming out and and and caught a
00:29:45
touchdown. And we're like, "Okay, this
00:29:48
is this is real. This is very real." And
00:29:51
then we you we used we used a lot of
00:29:53
those clips the next year to during free
00:29:58
agency. We were showing them to we were
00:30:01
sending them to to agents during free
00:30:02
agency to say, "Hey, like we have a
00:30:04
receiver or I'm sorry, we we we have a
00:30:07
quarterback
00:30:09
>> that that your receiver is going to love
00:30:12
playing with."
00:30:13
>> Yeah. Yeah. That's great. That's really
00:30:15
cool. Okay, we should let you go. It's
00:30:17
high season in your world. Thank you
00:30:20
very much for cutting us some time. The
00:30:22
Carolina Panthers are sitting on the
00:30:23
19th pick in the first round. We'll be
00:30:25
sitting on the edge of our seats to see
00:30:26
what you do with it, Grant. And we wish
00:30:28
you well with the way that pick goes and
00:30:30
the rest of the draft. But thanks much
00:30:32
for the time. Really appreciate.
00:30:33
>> Thanks, guys. Hope we get an impact
00:30:34
player there.
00:30:36
>> Absolutely. Exactly. Grant Tillis,
00:30:38
executive vice president, football
00:30:40
operations, Carolina Panthers, preparing
00:30:42
for his third draft um there in
00:30:45
Charlotte. Welcome back. Welcome back to
00:30:48
Wart Moneyball. Welcome to the second
00:30:51
half of this week's show. Kade Massie
00:30:54
hosting with two of my three longtime
00:30:57
compatriots, Shane Jensen, Audi Winer,
00:30:59
Eric Bradlo will be back just off the
00:31:01
line with Brent Tillis. Grant was piping
00:31:04
in from his office with the Carolina
00:31:06
Panthers in Charlotte, North Carolina.
00:31:09
He's in his third year down there. Fun
00:31:10
conversation talking a lot of draft
00:31:13
stuff. We're still we're about a month
00:31:15
out, five weeks out from the draft.
00:31:17
Getting a little warm on that front,
00:31:19
guys. Uh we're not playing Major League
00:31:22
Baseball real regular season yet. We're
00:31:24
getting close, but we are playing this
00:31:27
World Baseball Classic, which had some
00:31:30
controversy. So, the US was in the semis
00:31:32
against the Dominican Republic. If for
00:31:34
those of you who don't know, the
00:31:35
Dominican Republic is surely the single
00:31:38
hottest non US base for talent. I'm
00:31:42
guessing it's like international
00:31:44
international baseball scouting has to
00:31:46
be bigger in the DR than in Japan. No.
00:31:49
Am I wrong?
00:31:49
>> Japan actually has great players, but
00:31:51
they play in Japan and and very rarely
00:31:53
leave. So, DR are desperate to get out.
00:31:56
There's no way to make money in the DR.
00:31:58
So every one of their players who's
00:31:59
there wants to go play in the major
00:32:01
leagues and in huge numbers too. Japan
00:32:03
only bleeds out a few every now and
00:32:06
then. Not because they couldn't. It's
00:32:08
because they stay in Japan.
00:32:10
>> I see. I see. It has to rise to a
00:32:12
certain level. That's that's a great um
00:32:14
that's a great distinction for us. So
00:32:16
late I mean I don't know what else there
00:32:17
is to say about this but the the last
00:32:19
out of the game. So the DR were batting
00:32:22
their last time at the plate. They had
00:32:24
two outs, went to a full count, men been
00:32:27
on base even down a run. I mean, it was
00:32:29
like the game. It could have been go
00:32:30
ahead run kind of thing and there was
00:32:32
just a brutal call. The the last strike
00:32:34
was a call strike way low like three
00:32:36
inch three and a half inches off three
00:32:38
and a half out of the zone
00:32:40
>> which is a lot. Um, I don't know what
00:32:42
else is to be said about that other than
00:32:44
that Shane's always ready for the I
00:32:46
>> Yeah, I'm looking forward to the ABS
00:32:48
system rolling out for Major League
00:32:50
Baseball this year. So, we can, you
00:32:52
know, that'll probably still happen a
00:32:54
lot because teams will have limited
00:32:56
challenges and they'll blow through
00:32:57
them. So, maybe we'll still have a lot
00:32:59
of ninth inning controversies like this
00:33:01
even with the ABS system because teams
00:33:03
will have already blown through all
00:33:05
their challenges. But, it it can only
00:33:08
help. Shane, is it just a baby step
00:33:11
toward eventually this thing will be
00:33:13
fully automated? I mean, is that
00:33:15
eventually it'll be manual exceptions in
00:33:16
the other direction, right? When it's
00:33:18
obvious the system got it wrong, then
00:33:19
we'll have a manual override. But this
00:33:21
is just a matter of
00:33:23
>> it's a baby step towards replacing the
00:33:25
humans with machines. It's a microcosm
00:33:27
for every baby step we're seeing in
00:33:29
society today. This one I'm cheering for
00:33:32
a little bit more than most of the most
00:33:34
the other humanity reducing initiatives
00:33:36
we got going on right now. But uh but
00:33:38
yeah, no, I this th this is one where
00:33:41
the machines really do do better do it
00:33:43
better. So I I I support them on this
00:33:45
one.
00:33:46
>> Okay, Audi, before we leave the bad call
00:33:48
and and and the automatic umpire system,
00:33:51
anything for you on that front?
00:33:54
>> Uh well, certainly I really enjoy
00:33:56
watching the World Baseball Classic
00:33:57
because I love the enthusiasm with which
00:34:01
the Latin teams in particular play
00:34:03
baseball.
00:34:05
the bat flip when when I guess it was
00:34:09
when Venezuela won their game with a
00:34:11
with a walk-off that was and the
00:34:13
cheering and the craziness of the fans.
00:34:15
It's almost feels like almost like a
00:34:18
college football game, you might even
00:34:19
say. Um it just a has a a a uh a an
00:34:24
environment that and I was I was
00:34:25
watching the game last night with
00:34:26
Venezuela playing Italy. Italian is
00:34:28
basically Italian-Americans playing with
00:34:30
the usual sort of stayed way that
00:34:33
Americans play baseball and the
00:34:35
Venezuelan fans and the Venezuelan
00:34:37
players are just over the moon with
00:34:39
energy and excitement and happiness over
00:34:41
everything and it's just infectious and
00:34:43
I sort of wish some of that uh would
00:34:45
carry over to the the regular season.
00:34:48
You know, you compared it to college
00:34:50
football, which I'm sympathetic to and I
00:34:52
and I do think is probably the best
00:34:54
sporting environment in the US, but it
00:34:56
really feels like the comparison is
00:34:58
soccer when you're talking about those
00:34:59
Latin teams and the crazy fans. It feels
00:35:01
like a a soccer thing. Who won that
00:35:03
Venezuela Italy game? This is who's
00:35:04
going to face
00:35:05
>> Venezuela. So, the U it's US Venezuela
00:35:07
in the finals, which is a rematch of
00:35:09
probably one of the best games of the
00:35:11
last World Baseball Classic in 2023. the
00:35:14
US and Venezuela played each other I
00:35:16
think in the quarterfinals and that was
00:35:18
the one where the US won on like a Trey
00:35:20
Turner grand slam. It was amazing game.
00:35:22
So, you know, hopefully we'll get
00:35:23
something similar to that this time
00:35:25
around. It's it's Yeah, the
00:35:28
>> I I I just to kind of piggyback on what
00:35:29
Audi was saying. Um the energy with
00:35:32
which the players are playing in
00:35:34
general, it feels like a playoff like
00:35:36
almost like a super playoff atmosphere.
00:35:38
And it it makes me wonder kind of, you
00:35:40
know, it's weird. This is all happening
00:35:41
during spring training when usually it's
00:35:44
like this really kind of slow, very kind
00:35:47
of patient, don't don't pull a hammy
00:35:50
kind of ramp up to the regular season. I
00:35:52
kind of wonder, you know, I mean,
00:35:54
obviously we touch wood, we mostly
00:35:56
avoided uh injuries in the actual
00:35:59
classic, but I kind of wonder like does
00:36:00
this like for the players that are in
00:36:03
this like are they going to hit the
00:36:05
season like in a different way than they
00:36:07
usually would because they have had this
00:36:09
quicker ramp up, you know, is I don't
00:36:12
know. It it makes it I'm going to be
00:36:14
really interested uh obviously not just
00:36:16
for the game tonight and the end of the
00:36:18
World Baseball Classic, but like to sort
00:36:19
of see how these World Baseball Classic
00:36:22
players kind of do in the first month of
00:36:24
the season, whether it really looks like
00:36:26
this was kind of a a a different kind
00:36:28
of, you know, because I'm I'm kind of
00:36:29
hopeful they do this every three years
00:36:31
to be honest.
00:36:33
So, can you tell me a little bit about
00:36:35
it? Now, it's reminding me of the the
00:36:37
Olympic hockey that we just came through
00:36:38
where everyone talked about it seemed to
00:36:40
mean more at least as much as the
00:36:43
Stanley Cup, which is remarkable.
00:36:45
>> Um, when the US tipped Canada in the
00:36:47
finals, um, how were they? So, it
00:36:50
reminds me like team selection on all of
00:36:51
that. How who selected the players? How
00:36:53
many players were selected? Could you
00:36:55
tell that the players wanted to be on
00:36:57
these teams? Like, what's the story on
00:36:59
all that?
00:37:00
Yeah, I mean certainly the team America,
00:37:02
the American team I feel like I mean
00:37:05
Mark D. Rose has had a large role in
00:37:07
kind of both building this team and
00:37:09
managing it. And uh I mean anyway uh so
00:37:13
I I I but the the team building part of
00:37:16
it I think is kind of just I I I mean in
00:37:20
the past it's been kind of an open
00:37:21
negotiation between I think how who what
00:37:24
great players can we get and what great
00:37:26
players actually will be able to play.
00:37:28
And certainly on the pitching side
00:37:30
that's been tough and it still is a
00:37:32
challenge. I I I do think we are
00:37:34
transitioning more towards kind of a a
00:37:36
nice setting where even even the top
00:37:38
pitchers are willing to at least
00:37:40
participate.
00:37:41
It's during their spring training too.
00:37:43
So you have to be careful and we and
00:37:44
people have been careful. But at least
00:37:46
have this time around having all the top
00:37:48
pitchers and you know having skins and
00:37:51
scoo go for the US has been an extra
00:37:54
delight beyond kind of you know and I
00:37:56
think this is the only time where at
00:37:58
least America's brought really great
00:37:59
pictures.
00:38:00
>> Okay. A lot of that, ju just to follow
00:38:03
up with that, a lot of that has to do
00:38:04
with schemes himself. He uh made it a
00:38:07
priority and uh he tried to get other
00:38:09
good pitchers to come with it. Um that
00:38:12
comes from his Air Force background.
00:38:13
He's uh he wanted to play for the US. So
00:38:15
he was uh anxious to do this. Many
00:38:18
players just view this as something
00:38:19
that's in gets in the way of their
00:38:21
training, their spring training. And
00:38:23
pitchers in particular, it's a touch and
00:38:26
go. You don't want to throw your arm out
00:38:28
right when you may not be ready. And
00:38:30
even Skins isn't pitching more than 60,
00:38:31
70, 80 pitches. They're not going to get
00:38:33
more than that.
00:38:34
>> Okay. Okay.
00:38:35
>> There's rules even that limit them
00:38:37
actually um within the within the
00:38:40
>> Audi. Remind us what Skins's Air Force
00:38:43
background is. He's too young to have
00:38:44
actually been in the Air Force. He's an
00:38:45
Air Force brat. I'm guessing
00:38:47
>> he was a cadet. No, he was he went to
00:38:49
Air Force Academy.
00:38:50
>> Yeah. It's You don't understand his
00:38:52
background. He was a catcher.
00:38:54
>> Um and not particularly good one. Um,
00:38:57
and he was went to Air Force, which does
00:38:59
not have a terrific baseball program. He
00:39:01
was not drafted and he I don't know, one
00:39:05
of the coaches discovered he had an
00:39:06
impossibly strong arm, put him on the
00:39:08
mound, and within a year or so, they're
00:39:10
like they're like, "You you can't stay
00:39:12
here at Air Force. You got to go to a
00:39:14
real baseball program." And he developed
00:39:17
very quickly into probably the best
00:39:19
pitcher in baseball right now. Um, and
00:39:22
yet he he went to the Air Force because
00:39:24
of his, you know, military commitment,
00:39:26
not because of baseball.
00:39:28
>> Have y'all seen that that Twitter video
00:39:31
or whoever put the video on Twitter
00:39:33
where it skins like four or five
00:39:35
different pitches from the same from the
00:39:38
same release and people say, and then
00:39:40
there was one where it's even the same
00:39:41
speed. saw 97 mph and they have four
00:39:44
different paths and you're like what
00:39:46
chance does a pitch a batter have if if
00:39:49
his four pitches are completely
00:39:50
identically delivered at the same speed
00:39:52
and yet they're going to do different
00:39:53
things in the one second that they
00:39:57
travel.
00:39:57
>> I'm I'm not going to I'm not I'm no
00:39:59
statistician, but I think his ch the
00:40:00
pedra's chance is probably capped out at
00:40:02
one and four. One and four. One and
00:40:05
four.
00:40:07
>> But that that's just guessing the right
00:40:08
pitch. You still got to actually hit it.
00:40:11
So it goes down from there.
00:40:12
>> That's right. That's right. That's
00:40:14
right.
00:40:14
>> Yeah. Yeah.
00:40:15
>> Yeah.
00:40:16
>> Yeah. Audi's pointing out that you are
00:40:17
in fact a statistician, Shane. So, um,
00:40:19
good on good on you.
00:40:21
>> Um, all right. Let's jump over to do a
00:40:24
little bit of hockey. This is the time
00:40:27
of year where it kind of has it almost
00:40:29
has things to itself. Basketball, of
00:40:30
course, is there, but um, hockey is the
00:40:33
other sport that's in full swing at this
00:40:35
point. the ABS. Shane's been pointing us
00:40:38
to them from the very beginning and
00:40:39
they're still the points leader. Um, I
00:40:42
want to point out
00:40:43
>> that I want to talk to you about this. I
00:40:45
Yeah, the Sabres. I This is why I want
00:40:47
to talk hockey, Kade. I was wondering if
00:40:49
you'd realize what the Sabres have been
00:40:51
doing this year.
00:40:52
>> I have it, which is wonderful. I'm very
00:40:55
happy for them. It's bizarre to me
00:40:57
because they've been so bad for so long.
00:40:59
And it's also bizarre to me because they
00:41:01
have the same owner as the Bills. And
00:41:03
it's not that he's a great owner and so
00:41:05
where have the Sabres been? It's more
00:41:06
like the other way around.
00:41:09
I think the Sabres are more
00:41:10
representative of his ownership style
00:41:12
than the Bills are. So I want to know
00:41:14
what's going on this year, Shane. How is
00:41:15
it that that all of a sudden they're at
00:41:17
top of their division and one of the top
00:41:18
points leaders in the in the whole NHL?
00:41:21
>> Yeah. No, I I I mean I I I I've been
00:41:23
kind of amazed by it myself and I don't
00:41:25
have any good answers other than they're
00:41:26
playing a lot better than expected
00:41:28
essentially across the board. Um I I
00:41:31
feel like pundits even like as as as
00:41:33
late as like Christmas were just kind of
00:41:35
talking about like oh you know typical
00:41:36
Buffalo terrible se you know it's it's
00:41:38
been you know I mean they're break uh
00:41:42
they're breaking one of the longest
00:41:43
playoff streaks I think of all time
00:41:45
actually
00:41:45
>> they should be. Yeah that's right. I
00:41:46
think it was the longest of all time
00:41:48
almost 20 years. Is it more than 20
00:41:50
years now? Um and they're sitting on top
00:41:52
of a tough
00:41:52
>> 14 years 14 years. 14
00:41:54
>> 14.
00:41:55
>> Yeah.
00:41:55
>> Sometimes these things happen when you
00:41:56
play in a weak division and that's not
00:41:58
the case. They're on top of the Atlantic
00:41:59
division. And the sixth place team in
00:42:02
the Atlantic, the Ottawa Senators have
00:42:04
the same number of points as the first
00:42:06
place team in the Pacific, for example.
00:42:09
So, they're sitting above the Lightning,
00:42:11
above the Canadians, above the Red
00:42:12
Wings, above the Bruins, and above the
00:42:14
Senators. And even the Leafs are down
00:42:15
there. Well, the Leafs are suffering now
00:42:17
with Austin Matthews out. But,
00:42:19
>> um, strong division and they're at the
00:42:20
top of it.
00:42:21
>> Yeah, that's right. And uh I I should
00:42:23
point out since we're talking about kind
00:42:24
of playoff streaks, I think the Detroit
00:42:26
Red Wings have the second longest
00:42:29
playoff drought at like 9 or 10 years.
00:42:32
And they're looking likely to I I mean
00:42:34
they're not guaranteed to make the
00:42:36
playoffs like the Sabres are
00:42:37
essentially. But Detroit is like likely
00:42:40
to break their streak as well this year.
00:42:42
>> It's so strange to me that they've been
00:42:44
off because they were so good for so
00:42:46
long. It's weird that they were so bad.
00:42:48
Whereas like the Sabres have never
00:42:50
really done much in the NHL. The other
00:42:52
team that we've got some affinity for
00:42:54
Shane's given me love for the Sabres
00:42:56
because I spent two years I cut my
00:42:57
hockey teeth basically on the Sabres in
00:42:59
the in the mid90s.
00:43:00
>> You saw them at their peak.
00:43:02
>> Yeah. Peak. Exactly. I They saw them at
00:43:04
They got a playoff series win. I saw the
00:43:06
playoff series win. That's how that's
00:43:08
how peak it was. Um the Penguins with
00:43:11
with uh relatively new management still
00:43:16
relatively new ownership, relatively new
00:43:18
management were not supposed to be any
00:43:19
good this year. They're in rebuilding
00:43:20
mode. Have been in rebuilding mode and
00:43:22
they're sitting there at number two in
00:43:23
the Metropolitan Division. It'll be
00:43:25
interesting to see whether they can hang
00:43:27
on. They they they kind of seem to be
00:43:29
outperforming early on, but then that
00:43:31
outperformance has persisted. So maybe
00:43:34
depends. You know, one of the things
00:43:35
that they did, Shane, they got a new
00:43:37
coach this year and they went they went
00:43:39
to a guy they knew was great build a
00:43:42
great team builder, good in the locker
00:43:44
room, good with relationships and it
00:43:48
could be that some of that
00:43:49
outperformance is a new coach and and
00:43:51
and unex maybe, you know, it's a serious
00:43:54
I think it's a great management team. So
00:43:55
maybe they made an especially good
00:43:56
coaching hire that pulls that the talent
00:43:58
of the the guys up a little bit.
00:44:01
>> Yeah. I think also corre like Sydney
00:44:03
Crosby's clearly an amazing leader uh on
00:44:07
on the ice and kind of has had I think
00:44:09
part of I think there them continuing
00:44:11
maybe longer than we expected is Sydney
00:44:13
Crosby continuing longer than he
00:44:15
expected or anybody expected of him at
00:44:18
the top of his game both in the
00:44:19
leadership because you know the
00:44:21
leadership that he contributes but also
00:44:23
still being an elite level player. I I
00:44:25
think the Penguins were probably kind of
00:44:27
>> know knowing they'd still get the
00:44:29
leadership part, but still getting the
00:44:31
elite player part, I think, is an
00:44:32
unexpected bonus for them the last
00:44:34
couple years.
00:44:34
>> That's interesting, Shane. And it is an
00:44:37
interesting question. Like we we we we
00:44:39
know some of these psychological effects
00:44:41
matter. It's just hard to pin them down.
00:44:42
it. How how much do you think it matters
00:44:45
when a team you this maybe young guys,
00:44:47
some unproven guys, maybe on the roster
00:44:50
they don't look that talented, but
00:44:51
they're in the middle of them is one of
00:44:53
the all-time greats in the history of
00:44:54
the NHL who still plays at a high level.
00:44:57
What do you think that does to the
00:44:59
motivation, the practice practices, you
00:45:01
know, the discipline of the rest of the
00:45:03
guys around him? You know, it has to
00:45:04
elevate it. It has to make it and also
00:45:06
like how many more seasons does he have?
00:45:07
you know, we have to give what we can
00:45:09
now to make sure that his season there
00:45:12
has to be some of that in there. No.
00:45:13
>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I I I think so. I but I
00:45:16
think that also is probably a a subtle
00:45:19
function of how that player respon you
00:45:21
know responds to their late career and
00:45:23
the leadership they show whether they
00:45:25
end up still just being kind of more of
00:45:26
a self you know I I think you know I
00:45:29
think players age gracefully or not
00:45:31
gracefully psychologically as well as
00:45:34
athletically in a way that it's it's
00:45:36
hard to kind of quantify but is I think
00:45:39
super important to kind of team culture
00:45:41
as you were sort of suggesting
00:45:42
>> what you're saying is he he's no Aaron
00:45:43
Rogers is that what I'm hearing from
00:45:46
Great example. I was trying to I was,
00:45:48
you know, I'm like, do I want to just
00:45:49
throw somebody I I I was trying in my
00:45:51
mind to come up with somebody who did
00:45:53
not age well in this particular way or
00:45:55
somebody. Yeah. Who held on to their
00:45:56
position way too long.
00:45:58
>> Yeah.
00:45:58
>> Yeah. And maybe not the best leader at
00:46:00
this late stage of career. Um I'm happy
00:46:03
to throw Rogers on the best. He's been
00:46:04
too much of a queen uh the last couple
00:46:07
of years. Um anyway, all right. Why
00:46:09
don't we wrap it there? Fun discussion.
00:46:11
Glad to be back with you guys. It's time
00:46:13
to really pay more attention to hockey
00:46:15
as the season ramps up. Um, for the
00:46:18
whole team, Eric Bradley went absencia.
00:46:20
Audi Winer who just ducked out has
00:46:22
business in New York. Shane Jensen from
00:46:24
the campus of the University of
00:46:25
Pennsylvania. This has been Kade Massie.
00:46:27
Thanks to Dion Simpkins making
00:46:29
everything happen behind the scenes.
00:46:30
Aaron Tran stepping in and Deionstead
00:46:34
today. To Marissa Raina, our producer
00:46:36
for Deep Patel, the boss lady. And to
00:46:38
you guys for listening. Thanks for being
00:46:40
here. Come back and join us next time
00:46:41
between now and then.
00:46:42
Enjoy your sports.
