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How a Short-term Shock Can Change Your Firm's Long-term Course

October 01, 2015 / 07:57

This episode covers firm evolution, IPO impacts, and environmental changes affecting business strategies. The discussion features insights on firm adaptability and technological capabilities.

The guest discusses how traditional economic views often overlook firm differences, focusing instead on controlling for them. He emphasizes the importance of understanding how firms can adapt to environmental changes, particularly during critical transitions like going public.

He presents research on 1,200 firms around their IPOs, highlighting a significant period of change that can influence a firm's direction for years. The findings suggest that unexpected shocks during this time can lead to divergent development paths.

Key takeaways include the idea that firms develop capabilities based on their environments, which can shape their long-term technological abilities. The guest stresses the need for managers to be aware of environmental factors during transitions.

He also notes that while the research focuses on IPOs, similar principles may apply to other disruptive events, such as mergers or management changes, affecting firm dynamics.

TL;DR

The episode discusses how firms adapt during IPOs and the lasting effects of environmental changes on their development.

Episode

7:57
00:00:04
I'm interested in the way that firms
00:00:06
develop specifically I look at the
00:00:10
origin of firm differences and within a
00:00:13
technological context now the the
00:00:16
subject of why firms are different has
00:00:19
received some attention in the
00:00:22
literature but traditionally people have
00:00:24
sort of waved it away the standard view
00:00:26
in economics is to actually control for
00:00:28
firm differences and then to look at you
00:00:31
know apples-to-apples comparisons across
00:00:33
firms and that works within that context
00:00:35
pretty well even within the traditional
00:00:38
strategic frameworks it is very normal
00:00:40
to take a stock of the firm's strengths
00:00:44
weaknesses capabilities and then allow
00:00:47
the firm to do an analysis of where it
00:00:49
can fit into a competitive landscape now
00:00:52
all of that person's that the firm's
00:00:54
strengths and weaknesses are relatively
00:00:56
fixed and that has served us pretty well
00:00:59
you know in management but what happens
00:01:02
when the environment change if the
00:01:05
activity that your firm is engaged in at
00:01:07
any given moment is serving you well and
00:01:10
then there's a radical shift in the
00:01:11
environment the firm might find itself
00:01:13
had a loss as to how to react to that
00:01:15
and so it turns out that we don't have a
00:01:18
lot of very good frameworks to allow a
00:01:20
firm to enact change and to consciously
00:01:23
adapt to the new environment we know
00:01:27
that firms can sometimes change we have
00:01:28
observed that and documented it but even
00:01:31
more frequently we see firms not being
00:01:33
able to change and react and then the
00:01:35
splendor and fail so for me my interest
00:01:39
is to try to understand firm evolution
00:01:41
from the early stages so that we can see
00:01:43
periods during which firms are changing
00:01:45
and adapting then possibly glean some
00:01:47
insights into how that can then be
00:01:49
consciously applied by firms add
00:01:52
maturity in order to deal with the
00:01:55
environmental turbulence that they might
00:01:56
be experiencing now more specifically
00:02:00
what I do is that I look at a sample of
00:02:02
about 1,200 firms around the time when
00:02:05
they go public my hypothesis is that
00:02:08
this is a time of radical change for the
00:02:10
firm during which they're much more
00:02:13
plastic than they would be otherwise
00:02:14
given the amount of things that are
00:02:16
changing in terms of both the four
00:02:18
normal and the informal structures so
00:02:20
then what I do is I control for firms
00:02:23
that went through the IPO as planned
00:02:26
versus a set of groups as it affirms
00:02:29
that experience a shock that was
00:02:31
unexpected around the time of going
00:02:32
public and then I compared to see
00:02:34
whether that shock leads to divergent
00:02:36
development afterwards so what I'm
00:02:39
trying to find is to see if I can pick
00:02:41
up a case of more hiding plasticity in
00:02:44
the firm as it's going through this IPO
00:02:46
process and then what I find is that in
00:02:50
fact there's a very short window of
00:02:53
about 18 months around the time when
00:02:54
they go public where they are
00:02:56
particularly susceptible to the
00:02:58
environment and thus the conditions that
00:03:00
they experienced at that point seemed to
00:03:02
determine even 20 years later the type
00:03:04
of firm that they are their strengths
00:03:06
their weaknesses in terms of their
00:03:07
technological direction
00:03:13
some of the key takeaways from the
00:03:15
research are that we find that not only
00:03:18
do firms develop tastes and in
00:03:22
preferences but rather they seem to be
00:03:24
actually developing what we would call
00:03:26
capabilities that is the the
00:03:28
technological ability to do things
00:03:30
differently the firms that were exposed
00:03:33
to for example non conducive
00:03:36
environments for acquisitions
00:03:37
counterbalance that by developing
00:03:39
stronger internal research capabilities
00:03:41
and so that suggests that what is
00:03:45
driving this is not so much the top
00:03:48
management predilection or preferences
00:03:51
for doing one thing versus another but
00:03:52
rather something that is ingrained at
00:03:54
deeper levels of the organization in
00:03:56
terms of what the people and the
00:03:58
routines and the structures of the firm
00:04:01
allow it to do in my case looking at
00:04:03
research intensive activities and you
00:04:07
know so that is valuable in allowing us
00:04:10
to actually locate you know the locus of
00:04:12
where the persistence of these temporary
00:04:16
sharks ultimately resides in the long
00:04:18
term
00:04:23
for businesses my research might
00:04:25
ultimately give them a more insight into
00:04:28
what they can change what they cannot
00:04:30
change and how now this is a big agenda
00:04:33
and for now I've barely scratched the
00:04:35
surface by documenting that short
00:04:37
periods of sensitivity can have lasting
00:04:39
effect on what the firm can ultimately
00:04:40
do but for managers even in the short
00:04:43
term it hints at perhaps the importance
00:04:47
of being aware of when they're going
00:04:48
through a transition such as going
00:04:50
public in how that might have unintended
00:04:52
effects in disrupting their prior plans
00:04:56
so the best-laid business plan up to the
00:04:59
IPO may not be what works best going
00:05:02
forward given for example an unexpected
00:05:04
shock so you know for managers managing
00:05:07
the transition from being a private firm
00:05:10
to a public firm this should inform at
00:05:12
least the awareness to be much more
00:05:14
conscious about what the environment was
00:05:16
like at the time and how that may have
00:05:18
inadvertently influence decisions that
00:05:20
you know seem trivial at the time such
00:05:22
as what type of people they're hiring in
00:05:24
what sort of routines are developing but
00:05:27
also might end up shifting the direction
00:05:29
of the firm in ways that they had not
00:05:31
anticipated now stepping away from the
00:05:35
IPO context I think it's important to
00:05:37
note that these things are actually you
00:05:40
know probably not limited to the IPO
00:05:41
there's other disruptive events and I
00:05:44
think that you know some of these
00:05:45
findings should generalize for managers
00:05:47
to think about whether other disruptions
00:05:49
such as changes in management or mergers
00:05:52
can also be disruptive in also managing
00:05:54
that transition I think that my research
00:05:56
suggests that it is important to look at
00:05:59
the way that the environment is a
00:06:02
hitherto you know relatively ignored
00:06:04
component of what is shaping the firm
00:06:06
and how it affects the firm differently
00:06:09
at different times
00:06:14
the choice of looking at IPOs is a
00:06:16
convenient one from a data perspective
00:06:18
in that looking at a very large sample
00:06:20
it provides a very clean before and
00:06:23
after situation where we can you know
00:06:25
pinpoint when change what's happening
00:06:28
but theoretically there's nothing to
00:06:30
limit us to saying that the IPO is
00:06:32
somehow privileged as a window I mean as
00:06:35
I said there might be mergers
00:06:37
acquisitions death of founders in all
00:06:40
sorts of transfer transformative events
00:06:41
that might have a similar impact on the
00:06:43
firm so I'm extending my research by
00:06:45
looking at different conditions that
00:06:47
might also precipitate these periods of
00:06:49
hiding plasticity in the firm moving
00:06:52
beyond just the sort of temporal effects
00:06:55
I'm also looking at digging deeper into
00:06:57
what precisely is going within the firm
00:06:59
so whereas you know my study so far have
00:07:02
looked at large sample firms and
00:07:04
statistical data that that hints at
00:07:06
what's really going on to get a much
00:07:08
more tangible feel for that requires
00:07:10
getting into a smaller set of firms or
00:07:12
going deeper in looking at actually
00:07:14
interviews and more case grounded type
00:07:16
of approach to really you know provide
00:07:18
much more tangible evidence that the
00:07:21
like I said the whether the change is
00:07:24
being perpetuated through formal or
00:07:26
informal routines or formal or informal
00:07:28
relationships or whether it's at the top
00:07:31
or at the bottom of the organization
00:07:49
you

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This episode stands out for the following:

  • 60
    Best concept / idea

Episode Highlights

  • Understanding Firm Evolution
    Exploring how firms adapt and change in response to environmental shifts, especially during IPOs.
    “My interest is to try to understand firm evolution from the early stages.”
    @ 01m 39s
    October 01, 2015
  • The Impact of IPOs
    Research shows that the IPO process is a critical time for firms, affecting their long-term capabilities.
    “There's a very short window around the time when they go public.”
    @ 02m 50s
    October 01, 2015
  • Awareness of Environmental Changes
    Managers should be conscious of how environmental changes influence decisions during transitions.
    “This should inform the awareness to be much more conscious about the environment.”
    @ 05m 12s
    October 01, 2015

Episode Quotes

  • Firms can sometimes change, but more frequently they fail to react.
    How a Short-term Shock Can Change Your Firm's Long-term Course
  • The best-laid business plan may not work after an unexpected shock.
    How a Short-term Shock Can Change Your Firm's Long-term Course
  • The environment is a relatively ignored component shaping the firm.
    How a Short-term Shock Can Change Your Firm's Long-term Course

Key Moments

  • Firm Differences00:16
  • Environmental Shifts01:05
  • IPO Sensitivity02:50
  • Managerial Awareness05:12

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

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