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Welcome, welcome everyone to this week's
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episode of Wharton Moneyball, the place
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where sports statistics and sometimes
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even a little bit of business collide.
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This is Eric Bradler, professor of
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marketing, statistics, and data science
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at the Wharton School. I'm here joined
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by my colleague, my longtime friend and
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collaborator Shane Jensen, professor of
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statistics and data science here at the
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Wharton School. Some combination of us,
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Cade Massie and Audi Winer are here
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every week on Wharton Moneyball. Well,
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Shane, this is one of those great
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moments. I'll say for myself and my
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life, but I know it's also true for our
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Wharton Moneyball listeners. If we think
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about where really the term even Wharton
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Moneyball started or Moneyball started,
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it was through the analytics of baseball
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and it really was. I mean, it was the
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work with Billy Bean, the Oakland A's.
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Obviously, it got popularized with a
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large movie that was done. It kind of
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brought it to the forefront. And you and
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I have talked about this many times. One
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of the greatest moments of the fact that
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we get to host this show is we get to
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talk to people that are living this
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living the world of sports. And I think
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every one of our listeners on Wart
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Moneyball knows how much the Baseball
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Hall of Fame has meant and does continue
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to mean to my family and myself. I
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always say it was the if anybody wants
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to give their loved one a birthday
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present that ends in a five or a zero,
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25, 30, 35, 40. In my case, my family
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waited till I was 50 uh to have a
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membership to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
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But Shane, I I can't tell you how
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thrilled and honored I am to have to
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introduce Josh Raich. Uh as everyone
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knows that's listened to our show, Josh
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is the president of the National
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Baseball Hall of Fame. I didn't actually
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know before seeing a little bit of the
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rundown. Maybe we can even ask Josh to
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start there. He's a former senior
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executive with the Arizona Diamondbacks
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and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Um, so
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Josh, first on behalf of myself, my
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colleague Shane Jensen, welcome to
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Wharton Moneyball.
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>> Thank you. I appreciate you guys having
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me on here and and certainly appreciate
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your passion for the game. I I can tell
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this is going to be a fun uh a fun
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podcast.
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>> Well, it will be. And uh for those
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people Well, people will be watching the
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video. I'm actually wearing part by By
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the way, I think I have 10 pieces now of
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swag from the professional the National
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Baseball Hall of Fame. Um as I I took a
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picture to Josh the other day. I teach
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my NBA students in this gear and
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actually one of my students Josh you'll
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find this funny said I thought you were
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a I thought when you wrote member I
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thought you were in the baseball hall of
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fame like uh no I can only dream I said
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but why why don't we start with the
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following could you tell people a little
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bit about your background in baseball
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like the work that you did with the
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Diamondbacks and the Dodgers and how all
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of that started
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>> yeah well I I was very fortunate I went
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to Indiana University um so fortunate
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enough in that the football school that
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everybody knows and loves. But I I my
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freshman year a professor just said,
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"Hey, send your resume to your hometown
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team. You never know what would happen."
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And the reality is I didn't even have a
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resume at that point. The world was
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different in 1995. And you couldn't just
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send off a resume to the Dodgers and
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land an internship. But I did that um
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with a little bit of just
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resourcefulness calling around and
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trying to trying to land an interview.
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And I was able to get that. And um it
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really took about 10 days of working, if
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even that long, before I went, "Oh man,
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this is what I want to do with the rest
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of my life." Like I had no I thought I
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wanted to be a broadcaster. And I wound
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up realizing, "Wow, there's a whole
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front office of things to do, whether
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it's on the baseball side, the business
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side." And so I was fortunate to
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basically be at the Dodgers from um as
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an intern for three consecutive summers,
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and then uh started full-time with them
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back in 1998, more in the marketing and
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advertising area. Um, I I moved over to
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public relations uh in 2000 and then
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actually left for a couple of years when
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MLB Advanced Media was being built out.
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I got a chance to help build the MLB.com
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sites as you now know them and then came
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back to the communications world where I
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stayed all the way through some chaotic
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times of the Dodgers. Um, and I was very
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fortunate. I learned a ton in those
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early years as things were a little
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crazy during um, the Dodgers non-winning
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years. But right around 2011, the
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Diamondbacks um Derek Hall, who was a
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very significant baseball executive and
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um president of the Diamondbacks
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convinced me to move to Arizona where he
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kind of taught me how to run an
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organization over a decade from 2011 to
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21. And that's when uh the Hall of Fame
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came calling. So I'm guessing some of
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the other Dodger and Dimeback stuff may
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come up as we're talking, but that's the
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quick version of uh how I ended up here
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in Coopertown.
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>> So just tell me, how does that
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conversation go? How do you go from a
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senior executive in baseball to the
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president of the National Baseball Hall
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of Fame? Did you know Jane Forbes Clark,
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who you know, uh, for those people that
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don't know, people know the Forbes
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family in baseball? I believe Jane
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Forbes Clark is the granddaughter, if
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I've got this right, of the like one of
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the original pioneers of baseball. And I
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see her, of course, just like I see you
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every year in Coopertown. Did you had
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you met her? Is that was she chairperson
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of the board back then? And did she
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contact you?
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>> Yeah, it's pretty interesting. So her
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grandfather, Jane Forbes Clark, it's
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actually um Forbes, I think her mother's
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maiden name, and Clark is actually her
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grandfather's name. He was the one who
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created the Baseball Hall of Fame along
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with Ford Frick. So she has been
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chairman for over a quarter century.
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She's been involved in the Hall of Fame
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since the day she was born. It's been in
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her family since it it started. Um and
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when the previous president, a gentleman
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by the name of Jeff Idolen, was leaving,
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I guess he he was he was retiring and he
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gave them a list of people that he
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thought might be good at doing this job.
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And um for the students maybe in the
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Wharton school who are watching this, I
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mean I could tell you like I I often
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think about a random golf tournament I
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played in the Dominican Republic where I
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wound up in a forome with Jeff. And I
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don't think without that he ever thinks,
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"Hey, this guy could have my job
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someday." But you know, you spend 18
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hours talking to somebody and getting to
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know them. And over time I got to know
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Jeff. Um and so I remember he called me
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one day. I was pulling into the parking
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lot in spring training probably probably
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February 24th. I don't know what date it
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was, but um and uh he said, "Hey, would
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you ever think about my job? There's a
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few of you guys we've identified who we
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want to interview for this." And I was
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very close to saying, "Thank you, but I
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am not moving to Coopertown, New York.
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I'm I'm good." And something told me,
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"Hey, let's let's let's wait and talk to
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my wife about it." And when I did, she
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said, "How would you ever turn down that
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opportunity if you got that?" And so, we
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went through the process and here we are
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5 years later living with our family in
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this amazing baseball mecca. Let me just
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say one more thing before I ask Yeah,
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I'll turn things back over to Kade to
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kind of lead us in these conversation
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topics. There's a lot of interesting
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things going on at the Hall of Fame. Um,
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what do you see your role as like what
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do you do as the president of the
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Baseball Hall of Fame and let me just
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say again to our listeners out there, if
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you and I grew up, as all of our
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listeners, I grew up in Manhattan in New
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York City. I didn't grow up in a small
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town, but if you've never been to
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Coopertown, New York, you must go. Like
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the thing that surprised my mother cuz
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again I took my mother there when she
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was 91 years old. You literally just
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walk up to the Baseball Hall of Fame.
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Like you're walking down Main Street at
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Coopertown and you hit the end of the
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street and there it is on the right hand
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side. Like you know it's just you you
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you expect it to be like oh there's like
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a I don't know a 20,000 seat parking lot
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right there and everything. No, you just
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walk right up and you walk right in. So
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can you tell us what do you do in your
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job? But what do you see as the main
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responsibilities of it?
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>> Well, first and foremost, we're a
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nonprofit. So, we are an independent. A
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lot of people think we're owned and
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operated by MLB, but we're not. We So,
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of course, fundraising and a
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missiondriven approach to things is part
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of my job. Um, and so it's we're we're
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all about preserving history. That's the
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40,000 artifacts and three million
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documents. All these incredible things
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in our collection. We honor excellence
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and that's kind of the administration of
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the Hall of Fame. So that's the thing
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most people are probably familiar with.
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The debates over who belongs in and who
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who and when and how do they get
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elected. All of that is part of the job.
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Um and then connecting generations which
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is really something I think we do. You
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just talked about I mean we do it better
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than any place on the planet and you
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watch it happen. I just came from the
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conference room before we jumped on here
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and you walk past a grandparent and a
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parent and a and a kid and they're
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having this incredible conversation. Um,
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and so that's really what our mission
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is. And I'd say in a lot of ways, my
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role is not all that different than a
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CEO or president of any institution. I
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mean, ultimately got about a 100
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full-time people. Our leadership team is
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six different department heads. And so
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ultimately, myself and that group sets
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the vision. We try to make sure that
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people have what they need. And then we
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try to hire really good people to go out
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and do their jobs and and make this
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place what you're talking about, this
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incredibly special spot on the planet.
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So, um, again, I'm sure I'll drop in
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some other things that I get to do over
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over uh the the course of a year, but
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that's really I mean, it's it's it's the
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chief executive role of any institution.
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You're you're responsible uh for the
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good, the bad, the ugly, I guess.
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>> Let me turn things over to Cade who's
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going to then I think lead our
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discussion through a few topics and of
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course we will get of course I've had
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got a bunch of questions about analytics
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in the Hall of Fame, but I know there's
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so much going on given the 250th
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anniversary of America. you know the old
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expression, there's nothing more
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American than baseball. So, obviously
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you guys have a role, but let me turn
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things over to Kate.
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>> Well, I'm I'm curious to hear you talk
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about knowing something about it and
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then hearing you talk about it, but also
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realizing how much the game is evolving
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some. And um there's it feels like in
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baseball more than any other sport,
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there's this constant tension between
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honoring the past and innovating. And um
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frankly I think most people celebrate
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some of the recent innovations that have
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been helpful in keeping the game kind of
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booant in people's eyes and the fans and
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new fans. So I'm cur I mean you sit in
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this place where you know you're
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preserving the past but you're also
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honoring excellence and you're also
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connecting generations. So it has some
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of the same tension but how do you as as
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sitting on top of that which is kind of
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the the citadel to the history of
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baseball. How do you experience that
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tension and where where are you
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navigating that tension between
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innovating and staying in touch and
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staying contemporary and yet also
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connecting to the past?
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>> Well, I mean the reality is you just hit
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on I think the single biggest challenge
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we have and I think our staff all the
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time tells me um like they they hear me
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say all the time our job is to keep this
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place relevant for the next generation
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of fans. I know that you guys would love
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this place. I know that our parents
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would love it. Our grandparents would
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love it. It's how do we get my now
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18-year-old and 15year-old to love it
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and how do we get the 12-year-olds who
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come out here and mass for baseball
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tournaments to love it and how do we get
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people to essentially from the moment
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that they give a thought they hear about
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Coopertown in a broadcast um somebody
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mentions oh this person's Coopertown
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bound or oh this person is in Coopertown
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how do you get them from that moment of
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thinking about going all the way through
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the planning process the coming to
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Coopertown the experience being
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top-notch to becoming a member. As Eric
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said, you don't have to wait till your
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your zero or your five birthday. You can
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do it for any birthday. Um, and then
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frankly, how do you how once they've
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been here, because for many people it's
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a once in a-lifetime thing. Once they've
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come, how do you get them to stay
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engaged as a as a member and as a donor
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and then eventually put, believe it or
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not, put us in your will, which a lot of
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people do. It's like, how do you
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literally go from the beginning of life
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till the end of life as a lover of the
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Hall of Fame? And I think the way that
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we're doing that now, to really answer
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your question, because I got off a
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little bit, it it's thinking about how
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do people experience the Hall of Fame.
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It it it used to be just through I mean,
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when you walked in here in 1939, it was
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a small one room museum with some
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artifacts and some labels. And over
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time, we've evolved the exhibits to be
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more thematic and less timeline based
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and and then eventually now, I mean, the
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one that we just opened, which was um
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last summer called Yakyu Baseball, the
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Trans-Pacific Exchange of the Game, it's
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probably the most interactive and
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engaging thing we've ever done. It's
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it's less artifacts. It's more touch
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screens and video games and things that
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you can do. And we've been doing that
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for a lot of years, but continuing to
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figure out the genesis of of how you use
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your phone as you walk through it. but
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don't ruin the experience because you've
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got your head buried in the phone and
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how do you use AI but don't ruin it by
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going so far AI that nobody knows if
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this is real or fake. It's all those
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things. It is a crazy balance that we
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all have to think about and it's it's
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probably the biggest challenge that
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we'll have from now till whenever I'm
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doing this job.
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>> Shane, let me hold you off for one
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second. Let me ask one followup, then
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we're going to go to Shane. My one
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followup is okay, what's what
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organizational processes do you follow
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to try to hit that balance, right? like
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how do you pull in good innovation and
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keep out bad innovation? How do you
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strike that right balance? How do you
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experiment enough and not too much
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organizationally as a leader? What are
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you doing?
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>> Well, I mean, I think we early on I
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remember saying to the group like we
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can't be afraid to fail. That that's
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that was something that I learned a lot
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of the Diamondbacks. You have to be
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willing to innovate and sometimes the
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innovation's not going to work. And so
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to give you an example, in in the
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exhibit I was just talking about, we
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created a a a kind of pretty cool
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interactive that was like creating a
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>> a stamp. It's not going to sound very
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cool, but when you walk in, it's a very
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obvious you create a stamp in the
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baseball exhibit um the Yaku baseball
00:13:15
exhibit, and it just hasn't worked
00:13:16
exactly the way we wanted. So, we're
00:13:18
thinking about, okay, what can we do to
00:13:19
try to make it a little bit more
00:13:20
engaging? So, the first thing is you
00:13:21
can't be afraid to fail. And I think if
00:13:23
you if you set people down a course of
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you know what, think big. Um start
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small, scale fast. That's actually what
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our IT guy at the Diamondbacks used to
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say. Think big, start small, scale fast.
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>> Um we we
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>> I don't think we ever want to be here um
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on the forefront of technology. We're
00:13:42
just not we're not we don't have the
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money to screw up that big. We don't
00:13:46
want to be so far out front that we're
00:13:49
doing 3D televisions and now all of a
00:13:50
sudden we got to replace the whole the
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whole place because we went wrong. Um so
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we we we look at what works at other
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places. We think about how it might work
00:14:00
here. We encourage creativity and we
00:14:03
just have real honest conversations
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about what might work and what might
00:14:06
not. But I it's hard because there isn't
00:14:08
a perfect answer to your question like
00:14:10
what works.
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>> One last followup. give us one
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institution that you consider a peer
00:14:16
institution that you learn from. Maybe
00:14:17
one that might surprise us.
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>> Um, well, there's a bunch. I mean,
00:14:22
there's there's five or six of us who
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have my job at different halls of fame
00:14:24
that we we have quarterly calls and we
00:14:27
just kind of chat with each other, but I
00:14:28
just was um I mentioned my uh my who's
00:14:31
your fandom. I was down at the Peach
00:14:33
Bowl um when Indiana was was in the the
00:14:36
semi-final and I went to the College
00:14:38
Football Hall of Fame
00:14:39
>> in Atlanta and they are doing incredible
00:14:42
stuff with AI right now. Just absolutely
00:14:45
>> mindblowing cool technology that throws
00:14:49
I was with my son and my my cousin. So I
00:14:51
guess a 15year-old, a almost 50-year-old
00:14:54
and an almost 60-year-old. Um and
00:14:57
everybody everybody was around us was
00:14:59
was just having an absolute blast. Now,
00:15:01
it's very different than we're much more
00:15:03
about preserving artifacts. I think
00:15:06
we're probably more I don't know if this
00:15:07
is fair to say, but more of a museum,
00:15:09
whereas they're more of an entertainment
00:15:11
>> venue, but we we came back and
00:15:13
immediately were like, let's have some
00:15:14
conversations about some of the stuff
00:15:16
they're doing. And
00:15:17
>> as we build out this new experiential
00:15:18
gallery, can we can we take some of the
00:15:21
ideas from that? But I don't think
00:15:22
there's a place I've gone yet since I've
00:15:23
been here where I haven't stolen an idea
00:15:25
or two and come back and said, "Hey,
00:15:27
what do we think about?" And everybody
00:15:29
does that. It's not just me. the whole
00:15:30
whole place always has our eyes open to
00:15:32
what's out there.
00:15:33
>> Mhm. Shame.
00:15:34
>> Yeah. I guess feeding off that Pure
00:15:36
Institution idea, I think my maybe the
00:15:39
second most uh my my second favorite
00:15:42
museum to visit other than the Baseball
00:15:45
Hall of Fame in Coopertown is the Tokyo
00:15:47
Baseball, the baseball Japanese baseball
00:15:49
hall of fame in Tokyo. Absolutely
00:15:51
incredible institution as well. And I
00:15:53
maybe you already talked about this. You
00:15:55
talked about a little bit baseball as
00:15:56
the trans trans-Pacific game, but how
00:15:59
much that you've kind of are talking to
00:16:02
like kind of the Yeah, I mean places
00:16:05
like the na like exchange programs with
00:16:07
places like the B National Ball of Fame
00:16:09
in Tokyo. I mean that's probably the
00:16:11
most the one I know, but in Korea, I
00:16:14
mean obviously with the World Baseball
00:16:15
Classic coming up, we're sort of seeing
00:16:16
that baseball is becoming even more of
00:16:18
an international sport than it used to
00:16:20
be and obviously it's throughout our
00:16:22
major leagues now. So, how much of like
00:16:24
at the Hall of Fame level are are you
00:16:26
connecting with some of these other kind
00:16:28
of pure institutions or whatever kind of
00:16:31
constitutes Baseball Hall of Fame in
00:16:32
different countries?
00:16:34
>> Well, it's funny. The the Japanese
00:16:35
Baseball Hall of Fame um we are very
00:16:37
close with them. My me and my
00:16:39
counterparts several of us with their
00:16:40
counterparts. We went out there a couple
00:16:42
times over the last few years. Um last
00:16:44
year when well because we had this huge
00:16:47
opportunity with Ichiro being the first
00:16:48
Japanese player inducted last year and
00:16:50
this brand new exhibit we created. We
00:16:52
actually launched the whole announcement
00:16:54
of this this initiative with the US
00:16:57
ambassador in his residence in Tokyo.
00:16:59
And then we we had the my counterpart
00:17:01
from the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame
00:17:03
standing there with me. He was holding I
00:17:05
think a Mickey Manel jersey and I had a
00:17:08
a Satara Oat or something kind of I mean
00:17:10
there's all sorts of cool ways to now
00:17:12
they are they are different in some ways
00:17:15
they are right in the Tokyo Dome as you
00:17:17
know so it's it's much easier to get
00:17:19
through get to and that's a very one of
00:17:21
our unique challenges is that you can't
00:17:22
just accidentally happen upon the Hall
00:17:24
of Fame but that's one of the great
00:17:26
things about us as well but what's funny
00:17:28
is how much they have they they actually
00:17:30
are older than people realize in Japan
00:17:32
they they opened that that hall of fame
00:17:34
about 20 30 years after we did. So
00:17:36
they've been around for 50 or 60 years
00:17:38
and
00:17:39
>> you can you can see all about Babe Ruth
00:17:41
over there and everything like that. I
00:17:42
learned a lot about American baseball at
00:17:44
the Japanese Baseball
00:17:45
>> Hall of Fame.
00:17:45
>> Absolutely. And and in fact I was in at
00:17:47
the World Baseball Classic before I had
00:17:49
this job when I was in uh the Dodgers
00:17:52
and Diamondbacks. The first three WBC's
00:17:54
I was involved in um as a venue press
00:17:57
chief. So I I ran the venue at Dodger
00:17:59
Stadium um where I think the best event
00:18:01
I ever went to was Japan vers Korea in
00:18:05
2009 Championship which was just an
00:18:07
unbelievable international experience.
00:18:10
And then in 2017 I was I ran venue uh
00:18:13
media operations in Soul Korea and I met
00:18:16
a bunch of people there who have not
00:18:18
that long ago reached out about what if
00:18:20
we wanted to create something similar in
00:18:21
Korea. So we do all talk to each other.
00:18:23
Um it's clear baseball is just something
00:18:26
different here than it is in most
00:18:28
countries around the world. But Japan um
00:18:30
the Dominican Republic actually just had
00:18:32
their Hall of Fame ceremony about 10
00:18:33
days ago for the Latin Baseball Hall of
00:18:35
Fame. So we're in touch with all these
00:18:36
places. We try to um share ideas with
00:18:39
one another because we're not competing.
00:18:41
It's not like we're the Braves and the
00:18:42
Reds and we don't want to tell you what
00:18:44
we're doing. Um we're we're all friends
00:18:46
and we all try to borrow and steal ideas
00:18:49
from one another. So, I'm going to
00:18:51
transition back to Eric, but on the way,
00:18:54
I'll ask one question that I know that
00:18:55
we're interested in at some point, so
00:18:57
might as well jump into it sooner rather
00:18:58
than later. What's the role for
00:19:03
analytics in the in the in the future of
00:19:05
the Hall of Fame? And in particular,
00:19:07
could you imagine ever making space for
00:19:10
someone like Bill James who created
00:19:12
Saber Metrics? And there's no sport out
00:19:15
there that's been, I think, more
00:19:16
affected by analytics than baseball. and
00:19:19
Bill, I think anybody would give him
00:19:21
credit as as the prime innovator. So,
00:19:25
what is there an avenue? We we we raised
00:19:27
this question having just had a
00:19:29
conversation in the last week or two
00:19:31
about whether Dean Oliver could ever be
00:19:33
in the Basketball Hall of Fame. And so,
00:19:36
baseball has an argument more than any
00:19:38
other sport for analytics. Curious, is
00:19:40
there such an avenue in the future for
00:19:42
Bill or people like Bill?
00:19:44
So I mean the the the answer is at the
00:19:46
moment our executive we have number of
00:19:48
different ways that you can get in the
00:19:49
hall of fame but the only way that
00:19:51
executives umpires and managers can be
00:19:52
elected is through our era committee
00:19:54
process which um happens every three
00:19:56
years. We look at that category. This
00:19:58
coming December is one of those years.
00:20:00
Um up to this point uh the historic
00:20:03
overview committee that puts together
00:20:04
the ballot has mostly looked at
00:20:07
executives as owners or general
00:20:10
managers, what they describe as team
00:20:12
builders. Um, so somebody like Walter
00:20:15
Omali, who who not only won a number of
00:20:18
World Series championships in Los
00:20:19
Angeles, but responsible for moving
00:20:21
baseball west, he also won one in
00:20:23
Brooklyn, I should say, but um or a
00:20:25
general manager, John Sherholes or Pat
00:20:27
Gillick, somebody who was building that
00:20:29
team. Um, up to this point, the only
00:20:31
executive that doesn't neatly fit into
00:20:33
that category is Marvin Miller, uh, who
00:20:36
was elected several years ago as the
00:20:38
head of the players association. Um, and
00:20:40
that was that was a little bit outside
00:20:42
the box. So, I would say I would never
00:20:43
say never. I mean, Bill does not neatly
00:20:45
fall into one of those categories. But I
00:20:47
think part of what what I think makes
00:20:49
this place so special um is that it's
00:20:53
not just a plaque gallery. There are so
00:20:55
many people who come here and they think
00:20:56
that they're going to walk into just all
00:20:58
it is is what you see on TV, the plaque
00:20:59
gallery. And the reality is is it's a
00:21:01
three-story museum. And so Bill James
00:21:03
has a file in our library and all of his
00:21:05
books are are there to be studied by
00:21:07
generations who a 100 years from now
00:21:09
you're going to be able to walk in the
00:21:10
baseball hall of fame and say can you
00:21:11
pull me out everything you have on Bill
00:21:13
James and it is going to be frankly
00:21:16
possibly more than everything that you
00:21:18
have on
00:21:21
>> Bill Maserowski who just could
00:21:23
unfortunately use a name and we just
00:21:25
lost. Um, yeah. And so I I mean I think
00:21:27
that that's the the reality is is that
00:21:29
we don't see ourselves as just a plaque
00:21:31
gallery and a hall of fame. We are the
00:21:32
National Baseball Hall of Fame and
00:21:34
Museum. And so right now, is there a
00:21:37
path that would make great sense for
00:21:39
Bill? Not necessarily. But I wouldn't
00:21:40
say that's out of the realm. And as you
00:21:42
can probably know from people people's
00:21:45
complaints or or liking of what we do.
00:21:47
Um, we've changed the error committee
00:21:49
process quite a bit over the years as we
00:21:50
think it when when we think it needs to
00:21:52
be adjusted. And so if if we ever go
00:21:55
down that route, it's it would certainly
00:21:56
open open up to a lot more executives if
00:21:59
you if you started going down the road
00:22:01
of non-team builders. If I mean there's
00:22:04
you wind up with scouts and you could
00:22:05
wind up with business side who who
00:22:07
innovated the promotional item. There
00:22:09
could be you could wind up really
00:22:10
starting to go down a lot of paths and
00:22:13
to this point we our board hasn't really
00:22:15
been looking to do that but I'd never
00:22:17
say never to any idea.
00:22:18
>> Before I start throwing a bunch more
00:22:20
questions, I know Shane wanted to jump
00:22:21
in here for a second. Please Shane.
00:22:23
Well, maybe one of these is going to be
00:22:24
one of your questions because it kind of
00:22:25
does touch on more the analytic side or
00:22:27
at least I think one of the consequences
00:22:28
of analytics in baseball and is is the
00:22:32
kind of I I want to kind of ask what
00:22:33
your take is sort of on obviously we're
00:22:35
seeing over the last like 20 years a
00:22:37
real change in the usage of starting
00:22:40
pitcher specifically and that change in
00:22:43
the usage of start pitcher is going to
00:22:45
have downstream consequences I think to
00:22:47
Hall of Fame cases in the future. you
00:22:50
know, kind of a lot of the I guess
00:22:52
traditional barometers like winds and
00:22:54
stuff like that are going to I mean, for
00:22:56
lack of a better term, become kind of
00:22:57
less less relevant or more obsolete as
00:22:59
kind of measures of pitching quality.
00:23:01
So, you know, obviously this is a ways
00:23:03
away because we you know, at least the
00:23:05
current generation of pitchers still has
00:23:07
wins, but like have you guys thought
00:23:08
about like what what you were seeing in
00:23:10
baseball with starting pitcher usage
00:23:12
over the last few years and like what
00:23:14
what what does like a p starting a hall
00:23:16
of fame pitcher look like like 10 years
00:23:18
from now basically? and and and and how
00:23:22
how yeah how how we how we start still
00:23:24
choose pitchers.
00:23:25
>> So I mean it's it's a great question.
00:23:27
It's certainly one that I think a lot of
00:23:28
people have been writing about recently
00:23:29
because Felix Hernandez just recently
00:23:31
made a huge jump on the ballot. I think
00:23:33
the largest jump we've ever seen from
00:23:34
one year to the next and he doesn't
00:23:36
necessarily have the the counting totals
00:23:38
that some of the others do. But
00:23:39
realistically the guys who were elected
00:23:41
in the 60s didn't have the same numbers
00:23:43
as the guys that were elected in the 30s
00:23:45
and 40s. Sai Young and I mean nobody's
00:23:47
going to win 500 games again. And so,
00:23:50
um, the answer is it always shifts over
00:23:52
time. Um, obviously closers didn't start
00:23:56
getting elected until a certain point in
00:23:57
time and then suddenly now there's you
00:23:59
see seven or eight guys who predominate
00:24:01
predominantly relievers in the hall. Um,
00:24:05
I don't know what I don't know what it's
00:24:06
going to look like and frankly it's not
00:24:08
up for us. And a good this is going to
00:24:09
sound like a total copout but that's one
00:24:11
of the things that I think was really
00:24:12
smart when the Hall of Fame both was
00:24:14
started and has continued is that we
00:24:16
don't get a say. We really don't have
00:24:18
anything to do with who gets in. We
00:24:20
honor those who get elected by either
00:24:22
the baseball writers, which is 420 or so
00:24:25
writers. 75% of them vote for someone.
00:24:28
And so it's really up to them to sort
00:24:30
that out to try to figure out, okay,
00:24:31
what is the right amount of wins or is
00:24:33
it go to whip or does it go to strike
00:24:36
out?
00:24:36
>> Yeah. And I guess I'm I I realize you're
00:24:38
not really kind of running that
00:24:39
selection process. I'm just kind of
00:24:41
predicting what that selection process
00:24:43
will look like. like the the plaques 15
00:24:45
years from now, will it be like
00:24:47
strikeouts per nine or something like
00:24:49
that? Like how will we kind of like how
00:24:51
will we honor those like this next
00:24:53
generation of pitchers going to be like
00:24:55
150 wins or something?
00:24:57
>> What Shane's worried about is that I'm
00:24:58
going to be coming to Coopertown when
00:25:00
I'm 70 years old and I'm going to be
00:25:02
there by myself because no one's going
00:25:03
to meet the traditional criterion and
00:25:05
>> I'll be there with you. I'll be there
00:25:07
with No, that's not what I'm worried
00:25:08
about at all. No, I mean I I do think on
00:25:10
the plaques we just saw for the first
00:25:11
time with Todd Helton we used OPS on a
00:25:13
plaque. Um I'm sure at one point it was
00:25:17
strange to use I don't know pick a pick
00:25:20
a stat rate stolen base percentage what
00:25:22
at some point it probably they didn't
00:25:23
think about how often you got
00:25:24
>> even on base percentage we weren't
00:25:26
thinking about like 40 years ago.
00:25:27
>> All those things have evolved and um
00:25:29
that's part of what this place has been
00:25:31
really good at for now almost 90 years
00:25:33
is evolving with it. Maybe we're a
00:25:35
little slower. Like I said we don't want
00:25:36
to necessarily be on the forefront.
00:25:37
You're probably not going to see me
00:25:38
putting, it's not my decision, but
00:25:41
you're not going to see us put war on a
00:25:43
plaque tomorrow morning, but maybe 10
00:25:45
years from now they do. And and maybe 20
00:25:48
years from now it's on all the plaques
00:25:49
because that's how things or maybe it's
00:25:51
not. I mean, the reality is is um the
00:25:54
way you look at history, I mean, it's
00:25:56
Felix was an interesting one. Someone
00:25:58
said to me when I was in spring training
00:25:59
last week that well, if Felix is a Hall
00:26:01
of Fame that Hall of Famer, then so and
00:26:03
so also should be. And the reality is is
00:26:06
you're not everybody has their own case.
00:26:07
It's I realize that people look and they
00:26:09
say, "Well, if this then that." But the
00:26:11
reality is everybody's different.
00:26:12
Everybody pitched in a different era.
00:26:14
People played in different ballparks and
00:26:16
they all the things that um you just I
00:26:19
don't think you can't really play that
00:26:21
game because it just you'd wind up with
00:26:23
way more Hall of Famers. And I know that
00:26:25
one thing we do believe in here is that
00:26:27
it should be exclusive. We do not want
00:26:29
to be the sort of Hall of Fame where 10
00:26:30
to 15 people are getting in every year.
00:26:32
Um, we don't look at it and say, "Who
00:26:34
are the four best that aren't in? Let's
00:26:36
elect them." We look at it and say,
00:26:38
"Here are the candidates, and if 75% of
00:26:40
you agree that they're a Hall of Famer,
00:26:41
they're a Hall of Famer." And
00:26:43
unfortunately, sometimes we've had 73%
00:26:46
or 68 and you just don't get there. That
00:26:48
doesn't mean you weren't an unbelievable
00:26:50
player in the history of the game.
00:26:52
Doesn't mean you're not represented in
00:26:53
other places of the building, too. It
00:26:55
just means at the moment you don't have
00:26:56
a plaque in the gallery, and maybe the
00:26:58
next time we look at it, you might. So,
00:27:00
let me just ask a few questions about
00:27:02
things. I want to get back to analytics
00:27:03
in a second, but I want to ask about a
00:27:04
few of the initiatives going on this
00:27:06
year at the Hall of Fame. So, could you
00:27:08
tell us what the America 250 initiatives
00:27:10
are and how the Baseball Hall of Fame
00:27:12
and Museum, by the way, I'm going to
00:27:14
correct myself. I've always called it
00:27:15
the National Baseball Hall of Fame, but
00:27:17
you've pointed out an important thing
00:27:18
that's not actually its name. It's the
00:27:20
National Baseball Hall of Fame and
00:27:22
Museum. And the museum part is an
00:27:24
important part of the Hall of Fame.
00:27:26
>> Yeah, it's been on the front of the
00:27:27
building since the very beginning. It
00:27:29
was actually when I interviewed for this
00:27:30
job, I remember somebody saying to me,
00:27:32
don't forget there's also the other half
00:27:34
of it. It is in fact an museum and you
00:27:36
better understand all that or half the
00:27:38
building there is not going to be very
00:27:39
pleased with you because it's about it's
00:27:41
almost half the people who are museum
00:27:43
studies majors or have master's degrees
00:27:45
in various areas of of collecting or
00:27:48
preserving or or archives or
00:27:51
>> curators, librarians. Um there's a large
00:27:54
number of people whose job it is has
00:27:55
nothing to do with the actual hall of
00:27:56
fame itself. though. Um,
00:27:58
>> yeah. So, can you tell us about the
00:27:59
America 250 and and what's what's the
00:28:02
National Baseball Hall of Fame and
00:28:03
Museum? What's their part in this
00:28:04
America 250?
00:28:06
>> Well, I I think it's such a it's going
00:28:08
to be such a national celebration that
00:28:09
we hear about all year long that it was
00:28:11
pretty easy for us to look and say,
00:28:12
okay, when you talk about a sport that
00:28:14
grew up with the country, I mean, that
00:28:16
is it. People were basically playing
00:28:17
baseball when they were creating this
00:28:19
place, um, meaning this nation. Um, and
00:28:23
so we we looked at a number of different
00:28:25
ways we wanted to celebrate it. One of
00:28:26
them um is in fact a trail through the
00:28:29
museum, the America 250 trail that's
00:28:31
going to basically take 13 artifacts for
00:28:34
the 13 colonies and tie them back to the
00:28:36
ideals in the Declaration of
00:28:38
Independence. So, unity or liberty or
00:28:41
perseverance. And so it'll it'll kind of
00:28:44
give somebody an opportunity to walk
00:28:45
through the museum and see things that
00:28:47
that relate back all the way to 1776.
00:28:51
We also um fast forward about 80 years
00:28:54
or so and in 1857
00:28:56
um the the oldest known written rules of
00:28:59
baseball were created when the New York
00:29:01
Knicker back New York Knicker boxers got
00:29:03
together in 1857.
00:29:05
That doc those documents still exist and
00:29:07
are being loaned to us um for the next 5
00:29:10
years. And so we are creating a brand
00:29:12
new exhibit um that's both interactive
00:29:14
but also in a way when you go and see
00:29:16
the constitution at at one of the
00:29:17
Smithsonians in like this incredible
00:29:19
glad you're looking at a document that's
00:29:22
180 years old. Um that's a new part of
00:29:25
what we're creating. Um we are very
00:29:28
fortunate. Uh Rick Monday about 50 years
00:29:30
ago in April. Rick Monday uh was a
00:29:33
center fielder for the Cubs and two two
00:29:36
fans ran on the field, tried to burn the
00:29:37
American flag and Rick ran in front of
00:29:39
them, stole the flag from them and kind
00:29:42
of kept running and saved it from being
00:29:43
burned on the field. That flag has never
00:29:46
left his family's possession and he's
00:29:47
loaning that to us this summer. And so
00:29:49
for the first time ever, fans will be
00:29:51
able to come to the Hall of Fame and see
00:29:52
this flag on display and understand kind
00:29:54
of the patriotism behind Rick's Rick's
00:29:57
um actions that day. And then ultimately
00:30:00
the kind of the all of that kicks off
00:30:02
the same of Memorial Day weekend. And
00:30:05
for those that have ever been, I'm sure
00:30:07
you've probably been to one of our
00:30:08
Memorial Day weekend games. Um we host
00:30:10
we for years we've hosted a classic game
00:30:12
here that's kind of the legends game.
00:30:14
Recently retired players and Hall of
00:30:15
Famers all on the field together. Um
00:30:18
this year we're making it all about um
00:30:20
our military. It's the the Hall of Fame
00:30:22
military classic, a tribute to service
00:30:24
and sacrifice. And so we've got players
00:30:26
who either in some cases serve
00:30:28
themselves. We have two two major league
00:30:30
players who were actually active duty
00:30:32
military before they got to the big
00:30:34
leagues. We have um two dozen players
00:30:37
who care deeply about the military.
00:30:39
Either they had a parent who served or a
00:30:41
spouse who served or they supported
00:30:43
military charities when they played. Um
00:30:45
and then a number of Hall of Famers who
00:30:47
fall in that category as well. And
00:30:48
they're all gonna be playing at Double
00:30:50
Day Field and um doing a really really
00:30:52
cool event that um you're just not going
00:30:54
to want to miss. We've got Wounded
00:30:55
Warriors playing with them on the field.
00:30:57
Um we've just got an incredible
00:31:00
event put together for Memorial Day
00:31:02
weekend that I really do think if people
00:31:04
come um if there's an ounce of
00:31:06
patriotism in your body um you will be
00:31:09
blown away by the cool stuff going on.
00:31:11
Did you ever think, by the way, before I
00:31:13
get into the class of 2026, I want to
00:31:15
talk about briefly because we've talked
00:31:16
about it on the show. As a matter of
00:31:17
fact, what is it? The whole um you know,
00:31:20
there's that Hall of Fame ballot
00:31:21
tracker, which I know you must be aware
00:31:22
of that you know, the the publicity of
00:31:25
the ballots. Sure.
00:31:25
>> Um did you ever consider this year of
00:31:28
all years to change induction weekend to
00:31:30
July 4th, or was that never actually
00:31:33
discussed? Like what would be more
00:31:34
American for the Bradlo family to be in
00:31:37
Coopertown on July 4th?
00:31:39
>> That's funny. Uh, you know, we didn't
00:31:41
think about that. Um, interestingly, we
00:31:43
do two years from now. Um, we did move
00:31:46
the the uh the induction weekend to
00:31:48
August so that it wouldn't be up against
00:31:49
the Olympics, but we had not thought
00:31:51
about moving it up. And I think um I
00:31:54
don't know why we didn't. Um, to be
00:31:55
honest with you, maybe that would have
00:31:56
been a good idea, but I there's also
00:31:58
going to be a lot of other stuff going
00:31:59
on July 4th weekend, so we probably
00:32:01
shouldn't compete against all that
00:32:02
stuff. We kind of own the end of July in
00:32:04
the world of baseball, and I like the
00:32:06
way that works. So, let's talk about the
00:32:08
2026 class because it's an interesting
00:32:10
class for a lot of reasons. First of
00:32:12
all, we have a 3000 hit player, Carlos
00:32:15
Belron. That's not that common. People
00:32:18
don't, you know, 30,000 doesn't happen
00:32:20
all the time. We have Andrew Jones, who
00:32:22
I forget if it's 10 time Golden Glove
00:32:24
winner, but I think there's some stat
00:32:26
like there's only three players in
00:32:27
baseball history with 400 home runs or
00:32:29
center fielder with 400 home runs and 10
00:32:31
golden gloves. And it's like him, Willie
00:32:33
Mays, and Ken Griffy. Yeah.
00:32:34
>> Then we have the alltime leader of
00:32:36
second baseman in home runs and Jeff
00:32:38
Kent. How are you thinking about the
00:32:41
2026 class and kind of what's going to
00:32:43
go on in induction weekend?
00:32:46
>> Well, there's I mean there's a lot of
00:32:47
different angles. You just cited a few
00:32:48
of them. And um what what's kind of
00:32:50
unique is that that Jeff has Jeff played
00:32:52
with both Andrew and Carlos. Um so
00:32:55
there's there's a lot of there's not
00:32:56
only teammates there. Um Carlos and
00:32:58
Andrew are actually very good friends
00:33:00
and and they came out for their
00:33:01
orientations together. and his two
00:33:03
center fielders. It had been a while
00:33:04
really since two center fielders. I
00:33:06
think only in when it came to Negro
00:33:08
Leaguers did we have two center fielders
00:33:09
inducted in the same class. So it's um
00:33:12
we also have Carlos played for a number
00:33:14
of different teams. Uh he's going to go
00:33:16
in wearing a Mets hat, but ultimately um
00:33:18
whether it's the Royals, the Astros, the
00:33:20
Cardinals, number of in organizations
00:33:22
that um that will support him. So, I
00:33:24
think we're going to have on top of
00:33:26
that, there is just massive pride in
00:33:28
Puerto Rico um from Carlos and I think
00:33:30
we're going to see a lot of both people
00:33:32
from Puerto Rico coming up. Um I'll be
00:33:35
going down there um it 10 days I guess.
00:33:38
I'm going down there for the WBC and
00:33:39
helping tell all the Puerto Ricans that
00:33:41
you should come to Coopertown, but also
00:33:43
there's a huge Puerto Rican population
00:33:45
um down in the city that's going to come
00:33:47
up. And then Jeff is obviously
00:33:49
representing the San Francisco Giants
00:33:51
and uh Andrew is representing the
00:33:53
Braves. Braves have always traveled
00:33:55
really well. You see it they've had a
00:33:56
lot of Hall of Famers from that that
00:33:58
1990s dynasty. So it's it's a great
00:34:01
class. They all I mean what's amazing is
00:34:03
when they came here within the last
00:34:05
month we've had all of them here for an
00:34:06
orientation and you just watch the the
00:34:09
the
00:34:10
reverence that they hold this place. And
00:34:13
even as Jeff Kent wasn't a baseball
00:34:15
historian, he'd be the first to admit
00:34:17
growing up he just said I'm I'm like he
00:34:19
was in tears half the day. like every
00:34:21
time we turned around he was crying and
00:34:23
he just couldn't believe what what he
00:34:25
was doing and where he was. So it's
00:34:27
>> it's literally the meaning of the term
00:34:28
before I turn it back over to Kade. It's
00:34:30
literally the meaning of the term
00:34:32
forever.
00:34:33
>> Like you're forever in the Baseball Hall
00:34:36
of Fame. And you know they can't take it
00:34:38
away from you. And I don't know if it's
00:34:40
1% or less than 1% of all players that
00:34:42
make it. I think there's what 300 maybe
00:34:45
players roughly that
00:34:47
>> just just under that. And you're right,
00:34:49
it's about the top 1%. And just before
00:34:50
Kay jumps in, I'll say this. Um, one of
00:34:53
the other really cool things is that
00:34:54
it's when you say forever, I actually I
00:34:57
said to Jeff Kent's wife, like I re she
00:34:59
was getting emotional watching the intro
00:35:01
film that we have, which is the best
00:35:02
baseball movie on the planet. I mean, I
00:35:04
just
00:35:04
>> I was just going to say, by the way, by
00:35:06
the way, if you we should
00:35:09
>> that film, like even though it's there's
00:35:11
a three-story museum, when I arrived
00:35:13
there on, you know, the Sunday of uh
00:35:15
induction ceremony, we head straight to
00:35:17
that film.
00:35:18
>> It's unbelievable. For those people that
00:35:19
haven't seen it, I don't know. I'm being
00:35:21
serious for a second. I think everyone
00:35:23
growing up in every school should watch
00:35:26
that film. It's the most wonderful I'm
00:35:29
I'm literally in tears watching that.
00:35:32
It's the greatest film that represents
00:35:34
baseball. It's It's beautiful.
00:35:36
>> Well, thank you. Anyway, Dana Dana Kent
00:35:38
watched it and she was she was in tears
00:35:40
as she walked out and I said she said,
00:35:42
"It's just hard for me to believe that
00:35:43
Jeff is gonna be here forever." And I
00:35:45
said, "The reality is it's not just
00:35:47
Jeff. Jeff's it's your guys kids. It's
00:35:50
your grandkids. It's their grandkids
00:35:51
that 150 years from now they're going to
00:35:53
be able to come in and see great great
00:35:55
grandpa Jeff's plaque on the wall. And
00:35:57
like she just it's it's hard to fathom
00:36:00
how cool that is because it happens all
00:36:01
the time where George Sistler's great
00:36:03
grandkid showed up here last summer and
00:36:05
I put the his great-grandfather's glove
00:36:07
in his hand. He'd never met the guy. He
00:36:09
only knew that he was related to this
00:36:10
Hall of Famer. And then you just watch
00:36:12
like magic happen. Josh, I'm curious.
00:36:15
What happens at these orientations?
00:36:16
Inductees have an orientation that's
00:36:18
entertaining in some way. What what what
00:36:20
happens? Why do you do this? What
00:36:21
happens at these orientations?
00:36:22
>> Well, it's like college. We have to show
00:36:24
them where the fraternities and
00:36:25
sororities are and all that. Um
00:36:27
>> they get the lunch card, get the lunch
00:36:29
cards.
00:36:30
>> Exactly. How do you swipe for a meal? Um
00:36:32
I mean, the reality is is uh for many of
00:36:34
them, they haven't been in in all three
00:36:37
cases this year, they had been at
00:36:39
various points for for one reason or
00:36:42
another. Um, but quite often they've
00:36:44
either never been to Coopertown or
00:36:46
they've only been here because they
00:36:47
supported a teammate who was getting in
00:36:49
and they they've only seen it during its
00:36:51
chaotic times. So, what we try we give
00:36:53
them a tour. One of the most important
00:36:54
things we do is we give them a tour of
00:36:56
the museum. We give them a tour of the
00:36:58
archives. We we if they ever donated an
00:37:01
artifact, in most cases, if you're a
00:37:02
Hall of Famer at that point, you
00:37:03
probably donated something. We you had
00:37:05
some moment that we asked for your bat
00:37:07
or your glove or your hat. And so, we'll
00:37:09
break that back out again and show it to
00:37:11
them. And if it's not on display, we'll
00:37:12
show them in the archives. And it gives
00:37:14
them an idea of what it is that they're
00:37:16
joining. And then we spend quite a bit
00:37:18
of time walking them through what that
00:37:21
weekend looks like because it is
00:37:24
controlled chaos. I mean, it is it is 96
00:37:27
hours of events and parties and you've
00:37:30
got everybody that's ever known you and
00:37:32
loved you there and they all want a
00:37:33
piece of you and it's like here we can
00:37:35
help you figure out how does this work?
00:37:37
How can these people be at this party
00:37:39
while these people are at this party?
00:37:40
And where does where do they stay? And
00:37:42
how do you rent homes? I mean,
00:37:44
Coopertown is a village of 1,600 people.
00:37:46
And somehow every summer it swells by 10
00:37:50
time 10, 20, 30 times that. Um, and so
00:37:53
it's helping them figure out what's
00:37:56
driving them over to where the actual
00:37:58
induction happens and letting them
00:38:00
imagine what the stage looks like when
00:38:01
we put it up there. And um so there's a
00:38:04
lot of things and just getting to know
00:38:05
our staff because the reality is there's
00:38:07
probably five of us or so maybe a little
00:38:09
more that spend a lot of time with them
00:38:11
helping them get through this and it's
00:38:13
just to get to know you have a couple
00:38:15
meals and make sure they feel at ease
00:38:17
help them work on their speech. Our vice
00:38:19
President John Chesikovski is incredible
00:38:22
at guiding people through how do you not
00:38:24
just stand up there and say thank you to
00:38:25
this person? Thank you. Thank you. Thank
00:38:27
you. Thank you. Read every name. It's
00:38:29
how do you tell some stories about your
00:38:30
career that can also so we it's all that
00:38:32
sort of stuff that goes on in
00:38:34
orientation and it seems crazy that a
00:38:36
Hall of Famer would need that but um
00:38:38
many of them will remind us like
00:38:40
>> I don't know how to give a speech. I I
00:38:42
was a ball player. This is not what I'm
00:38:44
good at. And we say don't worry we'll
00:38:45
help you through every
00:38:47
>> Maybe two quick questions before I turn
00:38:49
it back over to Katie who's going to
00:38:50
wrap up. Um, is there any Hall of Famer
00:38:53
you've met and even your star struck?
00:38:56
I'm sure it happens all the time, but
00:38:57
I'll give you an example. Since my
00:38:59
mother grew up in uh, she was a Brooklyn
00:39:01
Dodger fan growing up, even today, every
00:39:04
time I see Sandy Kofax, I'm like, I
00:39:06
can't believe I'm seeing Sandy Kofax,
00:39:08
whatever they called the the arm of God
00:39:10
or whatever his nickname, I just like, I
00:39:12
cannot believe it. And, you know, years
00:39:13
ago, I saw Willie Mays at the ceremony
00:39:15
at Hank Aaron. I cannot believe I'm
00:39:18
seeing two of the in my view of the
00:39:19
greatest players that Ted Williams, I
00:39:22
just can't believe it. So, is there
00:39:24
anybody that just blows you away and
00:39:26
you're like, I can't believe I'm seeing
00:39:28
this person.
00:39:29
>> Well, it's it's hard. I mean, the
00:39:31
reality is that, not to sound cheesy,
00:39:34
but they all absolutely still have that
00:39:36
impact on many of us. Like, it is crazy
00:39:37
that they're that we spend our time with
00:39:39
these people, but Sandy is the one for
00:39:41
me that I also grew up with or grew up
00:39:43
loving as a Dodger fan in Los Angeles.
00:39:46
And as a Jewish American who just has
00:39:48
always heard stories about him, I was
00:39:51
kind of like I mean I I had met him a
00:39:53
couple times at the Dodgers. Um but the
00:39:55
fact that I now consider him a friend
00:39:56
and like to think he thinks the same and
00:39:59
that every once in a while when I pick
00:40:00
up the phone and give him a call or go
00:40:01
grab grab breakfast when I'm in Florida,
00:40:04
there's definitely the reality of like
00:40:05
this is kind of nuts that this is this
00:40:07
is where life is taking me. But um but I
00:40:10
think we're we're ve what's cool about
00:40:12
the Hall of Fame is that it humbles
00:40:14
every one of them. Like did when they
00:40:16
when even if they had a reputation maybe
00:40:18
when they were playing of being
00:40:19
>> it humbles Reggie Jackson really
00:40:21
>> humbles everybody. It's crazy.
00:40:23
>> Even Reggie Jackson man we could bottle
00:40:26
that.
00:40:26
>> Okay. Hold on. No, no. I want I want to
00:40:28
push on this because I know people
00:40:30
whenever people get get some kind of
00:40:32
award and they say I'm humbled by this.
00:40:34
How is it that you're humbled? So can
00:40:36
you just elaborate a little bit by what
00:40:38
you mean like why what do you mean by
00:40:40
humble there and why what exactly is
00:40:42
going on? I think it's funny when you
00:40:44
win some other award and you hear that I
00:40:45
agree with you sometimes you're like
00:40:47
what how does that humble you but the
00:40:48
reality is in this in this instance you
00:40:51
are standing on a stage in front of and
00:40:54
alongside these many cases legends you
00:40:58
grew up watching and there is a humbling
00:41:01
feeling to that that they just they
00:41:04
can't actually believe like wow I I am
00:41:07
standing here in front of Ken Griffy Jr.
00:41:09
and I grew up emulating him or Aussie
00:41:11
Smith or whoever it is. Um, and I do
00:41:14
think it's real. I don't think it's it's
00:41:17
BS. I think they they genuinely like
00:41:19
there's something about and the Sunday
00:41:22
night dinner that we do, which is
00:41:23
basically I mean it's just this insane
00:41:26
um the wives and husbands split up, the
00:41:29
Hall of Famers go into one dining room
00:41:31
and the only people in there are are
00:41:33
them, myself, and the commissioner of
00:41:34
baseball. and they are it's like a it's
00:41:37
they're back in their clubhouse again.
00:41:38
They get to they get to hang out and be
00:41:41
and so you see someone like Ichiro who
00:41:43
could one of the greatest players of all
00:41:45
time is like a kid again sitting there
00:41:47
at a table with all the 3,000 hit guys
00:41:50
and there's the 500 home run table and
00:41:52
there's the pitchers table and so it
00:41:55
just um
00:41:56
>> oh gosh they they organize themselves by
00:41:59
similar types of guys that have to be at
00:42:02
very few that have to be at both those
00:42:04
tables. Eddie Murray has to be at a
00:42:05
couple tables. But yeah,
00:42:06
>> exactly. Either way, and that's exactly
00:42:08
right. There's only a couple of guys
00:42:10
ever with 3,000 hits, 500 homers. And
00:42:12
Eddie, actually, is today his birthday?
00:42:13
I think it's I think today is Eddie's
00:42:15
birthday. Um
00:42:16
>> I'll tell you, it is in fact Eddie's
00:42:18
birthday. Happy birthday, Eddie. Um it's
00:42:20
odd that that's in my calendar. Like I
00:42:22
you grow up watching Eddie Murray as an
00:42:23
Orio and a Dodger, and it's like, why is
00:42:25
his birthday on my calendar? But I guess
00:42:26
that's
00:42:27
>> Let me ask one last question before
00:42:28
turning over to Kate. Is there do you
00:42:30
have statisticians at the Baseball Hall
00:42:32
of Fame? And I mean like for example you
00:42:35
talk you mentioned that you emerged from
00:42:37
the business side of things like
00:42:39
statistitians do a lot like for example
00:42:42
I do I work I'm a quantitative marketing
00:42:45
person like do you have a statistician
00:42:47
that helps you with customer lifetime
00:42:48
value about who to target with email
00:42:50
campaigns like do you have I mean forget
00:42:52
whether that person's on the baseball
00:42:54
side or the business side are is there a
00:42:56
role for a statistician within the hall
00:42:58
of fame and what do they do for you
00:42:59
guys? Yeah. So, we actually two years
00:43:01
ago hired our first business analytics
00:43:03
person. She does a great job. She's
00:43:05
actually sitting about 50 feet from me
00:43:06
outside the door there. Um, and she does
00:43:09
exactly that. She focuses much more on
00:43:12
customer satisfaction, surveys, uh,
00:43:15
retail numbers, email campaign, all the
00:43:17
sorts of things that that businesses
00:43:19
focus on. Um, prior to that, it was kind
00:43:21
of everybody had little pieces of it,
00:43:23
and we felt like we really needed to add
00:43:24
somebody. And frankly, at some point,
00:43:26
it's going to be more than one somebody.
00:43:27
We're going to have a whole department
00:43:28
of people doing it. Um, but she does a
00:43:31
great job of helping us make smarter
00:43:32
decisions by looking at some of the some
00:43:34
of the data. Um, on the on the baseball
00:43:38
side or the Hall of Fame side, I mean,
00:43:39
we have curators who are who are
00:43:41
baseball so several of them. Um, really
00:43:44
truly deeply knowledgeable when it comes
00:43:46
to statistics. Um, some of them better
00:43:49
at different eras of the game, some of
00:43:52
them different. I mean, there's all
00:43:53
sorts of things that they're good at.
00:43:55
Um, and then we actually have several
00:43:58
people who are uh came up through more
00:44:00
like the baseball PR world, myself
00:44:02
included, who have been following
00:44:04
baseball stats, are massive baseball
00:44:06
fans. We might not fall into the
00:44:07
category of Bill James or or um Theo
00:44:10
Epstein, but we we're we're kind of
00:44:12
knowledgeable about what we do and so we
00:44:14
try to incorporate that when into
00:44:16
exhibits or business analytics, things
00:44:19
of that nature.
00:44:20
>> Josh, it would be fun for us to have
00:44:22
guys. It would be fun for us to have one
00:44:23
of those curators sometime. One of these
00:44:25
baseball savants. Um, whatever the niche
00:44:27
might be, let's grab somebody and talk
00:44:29
about that niche. It would be
00:44:30
>> I'll tell you this great fun.
00:44:31
>> If you however much you think you know
00:44:33
about baseball, Tom Sheber's baseball
00:44:35
knowledge will take it such far beyond.
00:44:38
Every time I think, oh man, I'm a big
00:44:39
baseball fan.
00:44:40
>> I'm ready for that because I claim to
00:44:41
have amazing.
00:44:43
>> There's several of them, but Tom is the
00:44:44
one that just kind of blows my mind
00:44:46
sometimes when he can recall things. So
00:44:49
Marissa D Tom Tom Tom Tom Tom Tom Tom
00:44:51
Tom Tom Tom Tom Tom Tom Tom Tom Tom Tom
00:44:51
Tom Tom Tom Tom's last name again. Josh
00:44:53
>> Tom Sheber.
00:44:54
>> She All right.
00:44:55
>> Several. I don't want to say the others
00:44:56
aren't just as good. He's just our our
00:44:58
senior curator.
00:44:59
>> Well, let me ask you one on the way out
00:45:01
question. Again, top of mind. Don't
00:45:03
overthink it. There's not a right answer
00:45:05
to this question. Your favorite artifact
00:45:07
in the museum
00:45:09
>> for whatever reason.
00:45:10
>> So I'll give my standard easy answer
00:45:12
that there are so many it is hard to
00:45:14
pick. But the best way that I can the
00:45:16
best one that I've tried to because it's
00:45:18
it is top of mind is that when I when I
00:45:20
I grew up in Los Angeles as a Dodger
00:45:22
fan. Um they won the World Series when I
00:45:24
was 12, which is like exactly what what
00:45:27
makes every kid love baseball for the
00:45:28
rest of their life. Um and the final out
00:45:31
baseball from the 1988 World Series was
00:45:33
given by the catcher Rick Dempsey to the
00:45:35
general manager Fred Claire who donated
00:45:37
it to the Hall of Fame. And when I got
00:45:39
this job, I I had gotten to know Fred
00:45:41
over the years um in a number of
00:45:42
different he was very good to me as a
00:45:44
intern, gave me great advice um and I
00:45:47
stayed in touch with him over the years.
00:45:48
And when I got this job, he was quoted
00:45:50
in an article that said um I expect Josh
00:45:52
to look after this artifact for the rest
00:45:54
of time. So every time I walk past the
00:45:56
88 last outball, I kind of have to make
00:45:59
sure, okay, Fred, it's still there and
00:46:00
you're good. Don't worry. Um but the
00:46:03
reality, I mean, it just every day you
00:46:06
can walk in a museum. I could work here
00:46:07
for another 20 years and I still won't
00:46:10
get to see all of it, understand all of
00:46:12
it, take it. I just there's so much
00:46:14
impressive stuff that trying to pick one
00:46:16
thing is very very hard.
00:46:17
>> Mine Cade, by the way, if you since you
00:46:19
never asked me and since I'm a sort of a
00:46:21
business guy, too, is the Honest Wagner
00:46:23
T206 card. There's a place we walk down
00:46:25
the hall of fame and you can press a
00:46:27
light and press a button that lights up.
00:46:29
There's a bunch of different cards. Um,
00:46:31
that one every time I'm like, "Yeah, I'm
00:46:33
not surprised the Baseball Hall of Fame
00:46:34
has one." But what there's 10 known to
00:46:36
mankind or one just got found Josh which
00:46:38
I'm sure you saw about one just got
00:46:40
>> very few that are at the the highest
00:46:42
level but those are a holy grail section
00:46:43
of baseball.
00:46:44
>> There's one that just got found that was
00:46:46
in a family for over a hundred years
00:46:48
that just sold for 5 million plus
00:46:50
dollars. So there's one more but that
00:46:51
that's my favorite one.
00:46:53
>> That's a good find.
00:46:54
>> I've never thought about it for myself.
00:46:55
I like to think about what baseball
00:46:57
moment I would most like to see an
00:46:59
artifact from. I have to give some
00:47:00
thought. That'll be my homework
00:47:01
assignment. Shane, I'll be curious your
00:47:02
answer down the road as well. Why don't
00:47:04
we let Josh go? This has been
00:47:06
spectacular. We kept you longer than we
00:47:08
asked. Josh, thank you for graciously
00:47:10
giving us that time. Um, keep up the
00:47:13
great work, Eric. We'll see you this
00:47:15
summer, I'm sure.
00:47:16
>> Thank you. I hope I get to see all of
00:47:17
you guys and uh and truly it's it's an
00:47:20
honor to be on the show and and keep
00:47:21
doing all the great work you're doing.
00:47:23
>> And thank you. I want to say again,
00:47:24
thank you for everything you do. uh the
00:47:26
National Baseball Hall of Fame and
00:47:27
Museum
00:47:29
because of the role that baseball plays
00:47:31
in everything that we do in analytics
00:47:33
and what it means to so many families uh
00:47:36
is just crucial. So, thank you for the
00:47:38
Thank you for that. You could be doing a
00:47:39
you could be the CEO of a lot of things.
00:47:41
Um but uh
00:47:42
>> one will be as fun as this. I promise
00:47:43
you.
00:47:44
>> Thank you for being Thank you again for
00:47:45
everything you do.
00:47:46
>> It's our honor. Thank you,
00:47:47
>> Josh Rawitch, the president of the
00:47:50
National Baseball Hall of Fame and
00:47:52
Museum. That's the first half of Wharton
00:47:54
Moneyball. Come back and join us after
00:47:56
the break.
00:47:58
Welcome back. Welcome back to Wharton
00:48:00
Moneyball. Welcome back to the second
00:48:03
half of this week's show. Second half,
00:48:05
liberally speaking, we went overtime
00:48:07
with the president of the Baseball Hall
00:48:09
of Fame and Museum. Baseball Hall of
00:48:11
Fame and Museum. That was, if you if it
00:48:14
wasn't obvious, that was an Eric Bradlo
00:48:16
choice. And I thoroughly enjoyed
00:48:18
watching Eric. A little googly eyed. A
00:48:21
little bit googly eyed. Every now and
00:48:23
then we get googly about one of our
00:48:24
guests. I I was reminded I have to be
00:48:27
honest, I'm not the hugest M. Brown fan
00:48:29
in the world, but he did win the only
00:48:31
national championship in my conscious
00:48:34
life at the University of Texas. So when
00:48:36
we had M Brown on a few years ago, I I
00:48:39
felt like I had to say some really nice
00:48:40
things. I gushed a little bit. It's not
00:48:42
great when the host is gushing. I gushed
00:48:44
a little bit and I I was reminded of
00:48:46
that as I watched Eric because it means
00:48:48
so much to you. That was awesome. It
00:48:49
turned it was a spectacular interview. I
00:48:51
thought
00:48:52
>> I I did too. I think I like the way he
00:48:55
framed it, which is, you know, his job
00:48:58
besides the National Baseball Hall of
00:49:00
Fame part is to store the history of the
00:49:03
game. And that's why when we talked
00:49:05
about Bill James or whether it's Theo
00:49:06
Epstein or etc., you know, Bill James
00:49:10
deserves to be in the National Baseball
00:49:12
Hall of Fame and Museum cuz he's an
00:49:14
important part of the history of
00:49:16
baseball. Whether he ever gets elected
00:49:18
or has a plaque, I agree. I like the way
00:49:20
he answered that as a totally separate
00:49:22
issue and um I also thought of the way
00:49:25
you know in some sense his job is to
00:49:27
protect the game and protect the history
00:49:29
of the game. So I like the way he said
00:49:31
is like we innovate but you know we
00:49:33
innovate kind of slow like you know we
00:49:35
shouldn't be that you know let's not
00:49:37
bankrupt the I don't even mean
00:49:38
financially let's not ruin the baseball
00:49:40
hall of fame while we're trying to
00:49:42
create some AI 3D something something
00:49:45
you know let's remember that you know
00:49:47
people come here because they want to
00:49:48
think about Babe Ruth and Tai Cobb and
00:49:50
George Sistler and Ken Griffy and you
00:49:53
know let's never forget that. So, I I
00:49:55
thought he was great and you know, um
00:49:57
the fact that he came out of baseball
00:49:59
teams until I read the notes and I
00:50:01
looked up about him, I didn't realize I
00:50:03
didn't know what his background was, but
00:50:05
the fact that he actually worked in
00:50:06
baseball on the business side makes
00:50:08
sense. He's the CEO. He's not a
00:50:10
statistician running the I mean, he's
00:50:12
the CEO of a 100 person organization
00:50:15
that's entrusted with the history of
00:50:16
baseball. Of course, he should be a
00:50:18
business person and a fundraiser.
00:50:20
>> Shane, I'm going to put you on the spot.
00:50:21
You have to have some moment from
00:50:23
especially those early Red Sox
00:50:25
championships that you would like to see
00:50:27
the artifact from. I'm guessing that
00:50:29
would be a pink artifact for you.
00:50:32
>> Yeah. Um
00:50:34
>> bloody sock. I mean
00:50:35
>> the blood I mean the bloody sock is I I
00:50:38
that one of soured a little bit on me
00:50:39
just because Kurt Schilling kind of in
00:50:41
his po post baseball career hasn't has
00:50:43
been as as as loudable. Um
00:50:46
>> it's got to be like a big Poppy home
00:50:48
run. I think it's going to it would be
00:50:49
the home run ball for that one that was
00:50:52
hit into the Red Sox bullpen. The one in
00:50:54
uh 2013,
00:50:56
he hit a grand slam to come back against
00:50:58
the Detroit Tigers. It's one of I think
00:51:00
>> Oh, wow.
00:51:01
>> a couple grand slams in that particular
00:51:03
postseason. I thought one of his games
00:51:05
against the Yankees in the series where
00:51:06
they were down three to nothing and he
00:51:08
had
00:51:09
>> no I mean
00:51:11
>> that that's you know I mean right
00:51:13
alongside maybe Johnny Damon's uh first
00:51:15
home run from 20 2004
00:51:19
game seven home run
00:51:20
>> I'd like to Yeah,
00:51:21
>> that would be kind of cool.
00:51:23
>> Yeah, that's maybe the gloves the gloves
00:51:25
that A-Rod used to try and slap the ball
00:51:27
out of Bronson Aoyo's glove in game six.
00:51:30
>> The the hamburger help. I don't even
00:51:32
remember that
00:51:33
>> legal play. Totally legal.
00:51:34
>> Oh yeah. No, I mean honestly it's it's a
00:51:37
>> it's a minor miracle the umpires got it
00:51:39
right, but they did.
00:51:40
>> Okay, my my answer for now I reserve the
00:51:43
right to change it is Azie Smith's
00:51:45
glove. I want to see Aussie Smith's
00:51:46
glove at
00:51:47
>> I think a glove over a bat or a ball
00:51:49
because the glove is such a thing who
00:51:51
ever talked about this but I hate to say
00:51:53
it but my favorite part of the weekend
00:51:54
obviously is being with my family and
00:51:56
kids but before you understand when the
00:51:58
ceremony starts this is the beauty of
00:52:00
the baseball hall of fame. And let's say
00:52:01
there's usually 60 70 returning Hall of
00:52:03
Famers. They have a twominute video of
00:52:06
each one. So you're sitting there for
00:52:08
about 30 minutes to an hour where they
00:52:10
announce Aussie Smith and then they show
00:52:12
a clip of Aussie Smith on this big
00:52:13
screen that Aussie blocks out. And so my
00:52:16
kids and I say, you know, they always
00:52:18
joke with me, dad, we can go now. Like I
00:52:20
hate to say it, but look, not that I
00:52:21
don't want to hear Carlos Beltron speech
00:52:23
or Jeff Kent's speech and Andrew Jones
00:52:25
speech, but the first hour of it when
00:52:27
they're announcing all the Hall of
00:52:29
Famers and they have the video up there
00:52:30
like that to me is that's the highlight
00:52:33
of the Hall of Fame experience and
00:52:35
weekend.
00:52:35
>> Hey man, I think the field the fielders
00:52:37
the guy who do great things in the field
00:52:39
probably have better highlights than the
00:52:41
hitters, right?
00:52:42
>> Do they they announce like every living
00:52:44
hall of fame? every
00:52:45
>> the ones that are there, the ones that
00:52:47
are literally, oh, by the way, maybe you
00:52:49
don't know, they literally come out one
00:52:50
at a time like now from the class of
00:52:52
1991, the Wizard of Oz, and then they
00:52:55
put his thing up on the screen and
00:52:57
you're all watching his highlight rail.
00:52:58
Then they go and now the Iron Man, you
00:53:00
know, Cal Repen played, you know,
00:53:03
>> we would increase participation at our
00:53:05
alumni reunions if we had little videos
00:53:08
of everybody who agreed to come to their
00:53:10
reunions. Okay, fellas, let's talk a
00:53:12
little bit of sports around um around
00:53:13
the world. Before we do that, I want to
00:53:15
ask explicitly about the Olympics. The
00:53:17
Olympics wrapped up this weekend. I'm
00:53:19
I'm I've been curious as I watched the
00:53:21
Olympics off and on over the last two
00:53:22
weeks. I I was curious like what
00:53:24
reactions y'all were having. Are there
00:53:26
any sports that went up in your eyes,
00:53:27
down in your eyes, found yourself liking
00:53:29
more than you expected, less than you
00:53:31
expected? Just a few quick comments that
00:53:34
you learned, enjoyed, didn't enjoy.
00:53:36
>> You want to go first? I just go for it.
00:53:38
>> Yeah, I just have a couple. So obviously
00:53:42
I was really really rooting for the US
00:53:44
versus Canada. Not that I have a real,
00:53:47
you know, I just know it's been I
00:53:48
remember when 1980 the Miracle on Ice
00:53:50
happened. It's been obviously 46 years
00:53:52
since the US team won. Um since I don't
00:53:55
watch as much hockey as Shane or lots of
00:53:57
other people, I wasn't aware of like how
00:54:00
much I'll call it variance this
00:54:02
threeonree format is like the gold medal
00:54:05
is coming down to a threeonree. I mean
00:54:08
and Canada should have scored on the
00:54:11
previous thing. And to me,
00:54:12
>> it's absolutely ridiculous. They used
00:54:14
that.
00:54:14
>> No, no, I agree.
00:54:15
>> Weird format for the gold medal game. I
00:54:18
mean, the other game's fine, whatever.
00:54:19
>> No, no. I'm just saying one missed shot,
00:54:22
one steal of the puck led to the US
00:54:24
ending up with an uncontested shot on
00:54:27
goal. And I just figured I just thought
00:54:29
that was a weird ending. But even then,
00:54:30
I I I thought that was interesting. And
00:54:33
look, despite I've been highly critical
00:54:35
of her throughout for her eight
00:54:37
consecutive non-metals,
00:54:39
I've never been rooting harder than I
00:54:41
was rooting for Michaela Shiffron on
00:54:44
that last run in the slalom. She was
00:54:46
clearly so far ahead. I'm like, please
00:54:48
don't hit a gate. Please don't hit a
00:54:49
gate. Cuz like if you just ski down here
00:54:51
at Eric Bradlo speed now for the back
00:54:53
half of this run, you're going to win
00:54:55
the gold medal. And so to me, um, I've
00:54:59
always found in this case was slalom,
00:55:01
but the the alpine skiing events and
00:55:04
hockey, both women's and men's to me
00:55:07
were just incredible experiences. So
00:55:09
those will be my memories from this
00:55:10
Olympics. Those two events, both women
00:55:12
and men's downhill and the women's and
00:55:15
men's ice hockey.
00:55:17
>> Uh, I want to talk a little bit about
00:55:19
that three and three. I I want to follow
00:55:20
up on yours before I get I get to mine
00:55:22
because I I do kind of feel like it got
00:55:24
me thinking that because the threeon-ree
00:55:26
format obviously is optimized towards
00:55:30
just getting getting it over with as
00:55:31
quickly as possible. Like it's like uh I
00:55:34
I guess I'm kind of it made me wonder
00:55:36
what actually the scoring rates are for
00:55:39
three on three versus four on four
00:55:41
versus five on five. Mhm.
00:55:43
>> And you know, for either during the
00:55:46
Olympics or during regular season NHL,
00:55:48
we don't just do overtime after
00:55:51
overtime, which is the real way to
00:55:52
decide a hockey game because it takes
00:55:55
too long, the players get too tired,
00:55:56
blah blah blah blah. No argument for the
00:55:58
gold medal game again. Why they why they
00:56:01
couldn't just play that one until there
00:56:02
was a real winner, whatever. Um, but it
00:56:06
makes makes me wonder like three on
00:56:08
three seems a little bit too fast or or
00:56:10
like too dissimilar to real hockey, too
00:56:13
high of a rate of scoring. If we just
00:56:16
did overtime four on four, it would be
00:56:18
closer to real hockey.
00:56:20
>> Mhm. but maybe would have a scoring rate
00:56:22
high enough where we could get like like
00:56:24
I I guess I've been inspired to be like
00:56:27
three on three is too extreme, but if we
00:56:28
just did four on four for overtime
00:56:31
in actual regular season hockey, could
00:56:34
we avoid the shootout? Like how how
00:56:36
what's the expected waiting time? And is
00:56:39
it reasonable enough that if we just did
00:56:40
a faster pace or I would even say go
00:56:43
three on three for overtime in the
00:56:44
regular season because that's at least
00:56:46
slightly more similar to real hockey
00:56:48
than the shootout is. So, you know,
00:56:50
given that we can basically, I think,
00:56:52
arbitrarily up the scoring rate in
00:56:54
hockey just by removing players, why
00:56:56
don't we have that as an overtime
00:56:58
solution as opposed to shootout,
00:57:00
>> I guess, is my question.
00:57:01
>> No, for the sport.
00:57:03
>> You could also, Shane, if you wanted to,
00:57:05
let's say you said, really, we really
00:57:06
don't want more than 15 minutes of
00:57:08
overtime hockey. Let's start at five on
00:57:10
five for the first five minutes, then go
00:57:12
down to four on four. No, no, no. I'm
00:57:13
just I'm actually being serious. You
00:57:15
could just start reducing the number of
00:57:17
players. Look, you saw the same thing I
00:57:19
did, which is obviously I mean you're
00:57:21
Canadian, you rooting for Canada. I
00:57:22
assume I'm American, but it's not about
00:57:24
that. By the end of the game, in my
00:57:27
view, the US was outplayed and therefore
00:57:30
they had a better shot at winning three
00:57:32
on three.
00:57:33
>> Yeah, it's a higher variance.
00:57:35
>> So, you might as well No, no, but they I
00:57:37
I think they were playing for three on
00:57:40
three at the end of the game. Obviously,
00:57:41
they wanted to score. No, I'm just
00:57:43
saying the 40some shots the Canadian
00:57:46
team put up to the 20some shots the US
00:57:48
team put up and you could I mean I
00:57:51
understand we hit one off the post too,
00:57:53
but I mean they had the better
00:57:54
opportunities in the game. The US should
00:57:56
have been playing for threeon-ree
00:57:57
overtime. That was their best chance to
00:57:59
win the gold medal.
00:58:01
>> All right, give us give us some
00:58:02
nonhockey Olympic cuts.
00:58:04
>> Well, the thing the uh other thing I
00:58:06
mean I watched a ton of curling. Oh my
00:58:08
goodness, it was so fun. Uh I love
00:58:10
curling so much. which is such a great
00:58:12
sport. And there's a new kind of thing,
00:58:14
at least new to me. I my apologies to
00:58:16
the real curling afficionados that are
00:58:18
I'm sure the majority of our listeners,
00:58:20
but this mixed doubles curling is like a
00:58:22
new So, previously in Olympic curling,
00:58:24
you had the men's team and the women's
00:58:26
team and it's four people per team and
00:58:28
they shoot two rocks each. this mix
00:58:30
doubles. It's only two. It's a a couple,
00:58:34
so two people per team. And they don't
00:58:37
shoot like as many rocks, but there's
00:58:39
actually rocks placed on the So, in in
00:58:42
regular curling, all the rocks that like
00:58:44
are thrown are the ones that enter the
00:58:45
house. This one, there's actually rocks
00:58:47
placed in the house ahead of time. So,
00:58:49
you start out with rocks in the house
00:58:52
and then they start throwing rocks. So,
00:58:53
it's almost like, you know, it's it it
00:58:56
leads to like a lot more kind of
00:58:57
interesting sort of scenarios basically.
00:59:00
>> Shane, with only two people on the team,
00:59:01
is there just one sweeper?
00:59:03
>> Yes. Yeah. Yeah.
00:59:05
>> Okay. Yeah. And so, they're alternating
00:59:06
sweeping and and throwing. Huh. I miss
00:59:09
that. That sound that does sound
00:59:10
interest.
00:59:10
>> Yeah. No, it's it's it's super
00:59:12
interesting. And I think, you know,
00:59:13
again, I mean, Audi was kind of telling
00:59:15
me about like, you know, there's already
00:59:16
like, you know, because there's also
00:59:18
like a power play. There's all kinds of
00:59:19
strategic elements I think they've
00:59:21
introduced into already a very strategic
00:59:23
and interesting game of curling with
00:59:25
this mixed doubles format. So, I'm I'm
00:59:27
eager to kind of check that out in other
00:59:28
sort of situations. Anybody who is
00:59:31
following curling is probably like, "Oh,
00:59:32
this is old news." But for me, it was
00:59:34
new and I love this new format to be
00:59:36
honest.
00:59:36
>> Shane, if we had a tournament where half
00:59:38
the teams were men's national teams and
00:59:40
half the teams were women's national
00:59:42
teams, what would the betting market say
00:59:45
about the likely sex of the winning
00:59:47
team?
00:59:49
Oh, that's such a good good interesting.
00:59:51
>> Are you asking Kate if if men have any
00:59:53
competitive real advantage in curling?
00:59:55
>> Well, I mean one thing we can do I I
00:59:56
mean I don't know the answer to this,
00:59:58
but like you could within the mixed
00:59:59
doubles tournament, you could certainly
01:00:01
look at the shooting percent like kind
01:00:03
of like a success rate the men and
01:00:05
women. I will say that uh
01:00:07
>> Hold on Shane, if the evidence came back
01:00:09
that the men had worse shooting
01:00:11
percentage, they would blame the female
01:00:12
sweepers.
01:00:13
>> So it's not pure. It's not clean. I
01:00:16
mean, they they'd find a way to complain
01:00:17
no matter what, I suppose. But yeah, no,
01:00:19
I I I will say in the mix the mixed
01:00:21
doubles gold medal was won by Sweden.
01:00:23
Um, and the and the and the woman compo
01:00:26
part person in in that mixed mixed uh
01:00:30
Swedish team was like the Terminator. I
01:00:32
don't think she missed a shot. She see
01:00:34
she nailed absolutely everything. So, at
01:00:36
least the Swedish gold medal team was
01:00:38
carried
01:00:39
>> in my opinion. By the way,
01:00:41
>> the null has to be that there's no
01:00:42
advantage, right? The null has to be
01:00:44
>> possible. I'm just making this up since
01:00:45
I don't know curling very well. Is it
01:00:47
possible that men can sweep
01:00:49
>> harder than women?
01:00:51
They can adjust the the
01:00:55
disc more so than women can.
01:00:58
>> It's Yes, that that is in fact the case.
01:01:01
Uh, in fact, they were talking about
01:01:03
some six foot five, like the Italian
01:01:05
men's team had this like six foot6 like
01:01:08
uber athlete on it and he was just like
01:01:10
and they actually like there's literal
01:01:11
shots where they're like only he could
01:01:13
have swept it where it needed to be
01:01:15
basically. So, there is something to
01:01:17
that. God, I think it is Zamboni between
01:01:21
rounds to come out and reglaze the ice.
01:01:24
That beast is not
01:01:25
>> I don't know how deep you want to go
01:01:26
with this, but actually I've learned
01:01:28
also through this Olympics that the the
01:01:30
ice is different for curling versus
01:01:32
hockey. Like hockey ice made via Zampon
01:01:35
is too smooth. It like I was going to
01:01:37
say it was too you can't curl a rock
01:01:39
with that. They actually designed the
01:01:41
ice and curling to kind of be pebbled, I
01:01:43
think was the terminology they're using.
01:01:45
um and the attack the anyway. So yes, I
01:01:48
mean obviously deep time but yeah it
01:01:50
turns out a Zamboni would give you very
01:01:52
bad ice for curling specifically.
01:01:54
>> Okay. I I don't I don't I my
01:01:57
observations are we got I was with my
01:02:00
in-laws and we were working in the north
01:02:02
indoors fireplaces and we had the TV on
01:02:05
all the time and you just kind of saw
01:02:06
what was going on. There were endless
01:02:07
amounts of bobsled runs. There was
01:02:09
endless curling. There was endless ski
01:02:11
jumping and there all of these things I
01:02:13
found a little bit
01:02:14
>> halfpipe people on snowboards
01:02:15
>> halfpipe for a long time but here's Eric
01:02:17
I never enjoyed the halfpipe so much I
01:02:18
was anytime I saw these people jumping
01:02:21
this time this was what weird surprised
01:02:23
me I was transfixed at least for the
01:02:25
moment watching these guys jump and then
01:02:27
it peaked for me when they did when they
01:02:29
got to the aerials watching these
01:02:31
aerials are I you don't see it anywhere
01:02:34
else in the world anything remotely like
01:02:36
it is just utterly dumbfounding to me
01:02:38
that those people can do those But the
01:02:40
other thing that jumps out to me is you
01:02:42
need enough variation for it to be
01:02:45
interesting. Like one of the reasons
01:02:46
figure skating is kind of interesting
01:02:48
regardless of your taste for figure
01:02:50
skating is that there's real drama
01:02:52
during those two minutes or those four
01:02:53
minutes. Like some people fall, some
01:02:55
people don't. You can observe that as a
01:02:57
as a non-skating afficionado. And so
01:03:00
there's separation, there's variation
01:03:02
even among the elite. In bob sled,
01:03:04
there's like 4100s of a difference. It's
01:03:06
like come on. But anyway, so there's
01:03:09
some amount of variation that's needed
01:03:12
for optimal viewing. Okay, good fun.
01:03:13
Let's do a real quick uh what caught
01:03:15
your eye just to close it on a
01:03:17
traditional process. One thing, guys,
01:03:20
and let's try to be as concise as
01:03:22
possible since we're so over time, but
01:03:23
one thing caught your eye in the world
01:03:26
of sports.
01:03:26
>> I'll just be 10 seconds. Uh the run is
01:03:28
over. Scotty Sheffer only ended up 11th,
01:03:31
but I will say the following. Um this is
01:03:34
now it's not a big thing. It's the
01:03:36
fourth tournament in a row where he's
01:03:38
had a bad first round,
01:03:40
>> which has prevented him. Like if he if
01:03:42
you just look at the last three rounds,
01:03:44
he's won the last four tournaments.
01:03:45
Problem is they play four rounds, not
01:03:47
three.
01:03:48
>> So that's just interesting to me. But um
01:03:52
the guy like Tiger never gives up. The
01:03:54
guy made the cut on the cut line. Yeah.
01:03:57
>> And ended up So he was 70th and he ended
01:04:00
up 11th cuz he shot I think it was 65
01:04:02
and 64 on the weekend. He's never out of
01:04:05
it. Ever out of it. And um he's got it
01:04:09
didn't even look like it's not the thing
01:04:10
that's amazing on him. It reminded me
01:04:12
about Tiger. Maybe even better than
01:04:13
Tiger in this one respect. Like he's not
01:04:16
going to rush it. He knows it's coming
01:04:19
and he knows that if he just stays in
01:04:21
there, he could make four or five
01:04:23
birdies in a row and he doesn't have to
01:04:24
force it. So that's what caught my eye.
01:04:27
The streak is over. I think it was the
01:04:28
longest streak ever of top 10 finishes
01:04:31
and he, God forbid, he ended up 11th.
01:04:34
>> Eric, it's funny you mentioned that. I
01:04:35
almost texted y'all on Sunday afternoon.
01:04:37
I I knew that he had barely made the I
01:04:39
knew he had he had bid last in the whole
01:04:41
tournament.
01:04:41
>> He had to make an eight-footer on the
01:04:43
18th to make the cut.
01:04:45
>> Okay. But then on Sunday at one point
01:04:47
after he had finished, he was tied in
01:04:49
the top 10. There were a bunch of folks
01:04:50
and I was
01:04:51
>> One guy made a birdie. One guy made a
01:04:53
birdie with two holes to go that knocked
01:04:55
him down to the 11th place.
01:04:57
>> So that was the drama that I was feeling
01:04:59
when I looked at the scoreboard. I
01:05:01
almost texted John like coming down to
01:05:02
the last few holes. Will his streak
01:05:04
maintain? I saw somebody jumped him. All
01:05:06
right, Shane, what do you got?
01:05:08
>> Well, coming back from the Olympics,
01:05:10
let's catch back up with the NHL and
01:05:11
hockey. Uh, one thing I'm kind of
01:05:13
interested to look at over the next
01:05:14
couple months, car we we it was lost in
01:05:17
all the Olympic excitement, but the
01:05:18
Carolina Hurricanes have this new
01:05:20
goalender, Brandon Busy, who's like
01:05:22
basically since joining the Hurricanes,
01:05:25
and they got him off waivers. This is
01:05:26
was a goalie signed off waivers. He's
01:05:29
23-1
01:05:31
as a goalender for the Hurricanes. 233
01:05:34
and one. And I'll just say that that is
01:05:37
a I mean, that's an NHL record. So he he
01:05:39
won 18 of his first 22 games, which is
01:05:41
an NHL record.
01:05:42
>> Okay, hold on. This is these are weird
01:05:44
ways to speak. It's like saying
01:05:45
quarterbacks went won loss records. You
01:05:48
know, it's even more extreme than saying
01:05:49
a quarterback.
01:05:50
>> No, that's right. A goal, but but this
01:05:51
is a goal, you know, I I I and again,
01:05:54
we're not necessarily attributing it all
01:05:56
to him, but it is still unusual that a
01:05:59
goalender will have in his first,
01:06:02
>> you know, 27 games played 23 victories.
01:06:06
For example, just historically, the
01:06:09
career leader in win percentage, and
01:06:11
this is conditioning on 300 wins at
01:06:13
least or whatever, is Patrick Wah at
01:06:15
56%.
01:06:16
>> Yeah.
01:06:17
>> The current active leader in win
01:06:19
percentage, other than this guy, Brandon
01:06:22
Busy, is is Vaselvki, and he's at 61%.
01:06:26
>> Okay. What about peripherals though?
01:06:27
Don't want no peripherals, save
01:06:29
percentages, and expected goals.
01:06:31
>> Oh, yeah. That's right. That's right.
01:06:32
And to a certain extent, he he's
01:06:34
standing out but not standing out quite
01:06:36
as much in those. But I think it, you
01:06:38
know, I I'm keeping an eye on this guy
01:06:39
because there is inevitably, as you're
01:06:41
hinting, going to be some regression to
01:06:43
the meet. He can't keep going at a 90%
01:06:45
win clip. But it's pretty unusual for
01:06:49
anybody to come out out of nowhere
01:06:52
essentially to do this in hockey. And so
01:06:55
let's let's keep an eye on him and what
01:06:57
what happens with the Carolina
01:06:58
Hurricanes uh over the next uh couple
01:07:01
months. anytime they come up, I'm
01:07:02
reminded that they're whenever you talk
01:07:04
to folks the the the few people in the
01:07:07
league that we pay that we have
01:07:09
relationships with run analytically
01:07:11
oriented. They run kind of sharp and
01:07:12
they all rever the Hurricanes
01:07:14
organization and so for them they must
01:07:16
have seen something. It says something
01:07:18
about a player when the Hurricanes
01:07:19
choose him off off a waiver wire.
01:07:21
>> Um all right, I'm gonna go with baseball
01:07:24
guys. I picked this up. I regret not
01:07:26
knowing who I got this from on Twitter,
01:07:28
but now I'm just looking at fan graphs.
01:07:29
they sat at Fan Graphs and pointed out
01:07:31
that pre-season win probabilities in
01:07:34
Major League Baseball. So, this is me
01:07:35
bringing baseball to you guys.
01:07:37
>> Mhm.
01:07:38
>> Fan graphs preseason win probabilities.
01:07:40
There are 12 teams at 1% or lower and
01:07:46
there's another seven teams at below 2%
01:07:50
above one but below two.
01:07:52
>> This is for probabilities of winning the
01:07:53
World Series.
01:07:54
>> Probability of winning the World Series.
01:07:55
more than half the teams
01:07:57
>> 19 out of 30 19 out of 30 have 2% or
01:08:01
less
01:08:02
>> 19 out of 30
01:08:04
>> that's seems problematic to me by the
01:08:06
way it's it's skewed at the top too
01:08:10
you for this health of the league or for
01:08:12
your estimate the accuracy of those
01:08:14
probabilities
01:08:15
>> well you know I tend to trust fang
01:08:17
graphs but of course nobody's perfect
01:08:19
they I did have that thought shame like
01:08:22
are these too low I mean the Guardians
01:08:24
are in there some good organizations are
01:08:26
down in there. They seem
01:08:27
>> That's ridiculous.
01:08:28
>> But it connects to we're coming up on um
01:08:32
this next CBA and we're coming up on a
01:08:35
lockout or we're coming out of lockout.
01:08:36
The M the owners are going to lock them
01:08:38
out after this next season and it's it's
01:08:41
all going to be about a salary cap and
01:08:44
the players resist this because the top
01:08:46
end players do so well. But it does it
01:08:48
doesn't seem healthy to me. I mean, I I
01:08:50
generally favor players, by the way,
01:08:52
when it comes to these negotiations, but
01:08:54
it doesn't seem healthy to me to the
01:08:55
organiz to the league to have that kind
01:08:58
of disparity at the start of the season.
01:09:00
Like, you're your whole fan base, more
01:09:02
than half of the fans are looking at a
01:09:05
one one and a half percent chance of
01:09:07
winning the whole thing. Really?
01:09:09
>> Yeah. I mean, again, I I'm I I That's a
01:09:13
problem with a That's a problem of a
01:09:14
salary floor, not a salary cap. that is
01:09:16
there are a lot of
01:09:18
>> teams in baseball that are not trying to
01:09:22
compete.
01:09:23
>> Okay.
01:09:23
>> Right. Um and I can I could name them.
01:09:26
They would correspond to those ones with
01:09:28
1% 2%. Uh there are some teams that are
01:09:30
small market and actually trying to
01:09:32
compete.
01:09:32
>> Milwaukee had the best record or
01:09:34
whatever last year. I get it. But you
01:09:35
know, but look, we know how
01:09:37
probabilities work. Yeah.
01:09:38
>> And they all get stacked. They get
01:09:40
stacked.
01:09:40
>> No. No. It's And I do think that there's
01:09:42
a problem. I mean I mean at the top you
01:09:44
can look at baseball and actually argue
01:09:46
it's one of the highest parody leagues
01:09:47
in the sense that at the top you know
01:09:49
like if you look at kind of World Series
01:09:51
winners or like you know like playoff
01:09:54
teams over the last like couple decades
01:09:56
it's actually almost all the league is
01:09:58
represented.
01:09:59
>> This is I just want to address Kate's
01:10:01
point just for one second. Obviously
01:10:02
let's I know it was 19 out of 30. Let's
01:10:04
just imagine it was 15 out of 30 just
01:10:06
for simplicity. That's half right.
01:10:08
Obviously, the bottom half of the teams
01:10:10
have lower than half the win probability
01:10:12
by definition, right?
01:10:13
>> And so the question is what would be a
01:10:15
number you would feel comfortable with,
01:10:17
right? Because right now, if it's more
01:10:19
if they're in the 1% or less than 1%
01:10:21
range, my guess is Fan Graphs has that
01:10:23
at 20 or 25%.
01:10:26
>> Total for the bottom 15 teams. That
01:10:29
doesn't seem that bad to me in terms of
01:10:31
a total prediction. Like in other words,
01:10:34
if I had to bet you, I'll take the top
01:10:36
half, Kade, you get the bottom half, and
01:10:39
I got to give you three to one odds. You
01:10:42
might even say that's not enough. You
01:10:44
might even say, I got to give you 5 to
01:10:45
one odds, 6 to1 odds. So, I'm not sure
01:10:49
20% 25% probability for the bottom 15
01:10:53
teams, which is only an average of about
01:10:55
1.5% per team. I'm not sure that's too
01:10:59
low. As a matter of fact,
01:11:00
>> it's it's not it it doesn't speak the
01:11:02
most directly to unhealthiness. It's
01:11:04
really about the yeartoyear
01:11:06
>> that's the if it's the same team that's
01:11:08
different that's different that have no
01:11:10
chance because
01:11:12
I'm not I would not disagree with you. I
01:11:14
would just hold on as long as you're
01:11:16
>> as long as you're going to use an
01:11:17
example. Let's use the actual numbers
01:11:19
because you can't take the the 15th team
01:11:21
is 1.5%. And so the average of the
01:11:23
bottom 15 is more like 8.9. Okay, so
01:11:28
we're talking about 1% then let's say
01:11:31
the average is 1%. So 15%.
01:11:33
>> So I got to give you five or six to one
01:11:35
odds. That seems pretty well calibrated
01:11:37
to me. And by the way,
01:11:38
>> it's not a question of calibration. So
01:11:40
it's a it's a good qu it's a you're
01:11:41
you're raising a decent point, but
01:11:43
that's not the point I'm raising. But
01:11:44
but but but Shane's I would address
01:11:46
Shane and and to some extent what you're
01:11:49
saying, Eric, by pointing to other
01:11:51
leagues. And I don't have answers to
01:11:52
this, but what do you think that number
01:11:54
is? Here's what I'd turn back to you,
01:11:56
Eric. What do you think that number is
01:11:57
at the start if if there were let's pick
01:12:00
any organization that represents fan
01:12:01
graphs for NFL football?
01:12:04
What do you think the bottom 16 teams
01:12:06
get in NFL on the average season?
01:12:10
>> I'm going to say my first I'm going to
01:12:14
stick with my first guess somewhere
01:12:15
between 25 and 30%.
01:12:17
>> Yeah, my first guess was 30 third. My
01:12:19
first guess was two percentage. Um which
01:12:21
I have no idea.
01:12:22
>> What are the chances that a bottom half
01:12:23
team in the NBA wins the championship?
01:12:25
zero.
01:12:26
>> Yeah. This this these are the questions
01:12:27
I would ask,
01:12:28
>> right? Yeah. So, I mean like I would say
01:12:30
like like so like the NBA,
01:12:33
>> you know, like the NBA to get to that
01:12:36
15% would you how many teams would you
01:12:38
have to include or or like Yeah, I think
01:12:40
it's got to be for the bottom half of
01:12:43
teams in the NBA, it's got to be like
01:12:45
more like 5% or something like that. I
01:12:47
don't know actually. I mean, again,
01:12:48
people who do real predictions,
01:12:50
>> right?
01:12:50
>> Okay. Well, that's that's that's all
01:12:52
fair.
01:12:54
>> Isn't it is it Yeah. Yeah. So,
01:12:56
>> yeah, that's the question. That's the
01:12:57
question. That is By the way, what do
01:12:59
you think the Dodgers are
01:13:01
>> on the same analysis?
01:13:04
>> I see most stat I mean, they're probably
01:13:06
too high, but I don't know, like 20% or
01:13:09
something like that.
01:13:10
>> That's what I was going to guess.
01:13:11
Somewhere around 20%.
01:13:12
>> 27. What do you think the second highest
01:13:14
is? It's the Braves. What?
01:13:16
>> Half that.
01:13:17
>> Less than half that.
01:13:19
>> Should nine one third that 27 and one
01:13:21
third that 27 and 1/3. a more
01:13:23
>> people don't know I I and that's the
01:13:25
part that I don't think is well
01:13:26
calibrated. I do not think any of these
01:13:29
prediction models are able to handle
01:13:31
this like kind of tail team on paper the
01:13:35
Dodgers because I think the Pakakota
01:13:37
predictions had them predicted to be
01:13:38
like 105 wins or something like that
01:13:41
which is also insane. I think uh I I I
01:13:44
think we're we are our prediction models
01:13:47
are I think miscalibrated for a team
01:13:51
like the Dodgers where it's kind of you
01:13:53
know on paper you think they should
01:13:54
dominate everybody and you forget what
01:13:56
baseball's actually like.
01:13:57
>> Well, so just for what it's worth, the
01:13:59
wins from fang graphs that are driving
01:14:01
these numbers are 99.4. So it's not as
01:14:04
extreme as you might think. Though I
01:14:06
know 99 is still a high number for
01:14:08
projected wins. So that's a very high
01:14:10
>> if you gave 100. I mean, we scoff
01:14:12
usually at 100 wins at the start of the
01:14:14
season as a prediction.
01:14:15
>> This is 6 below that.
01:14:17
>> Well, right. Right. Right.
01:14:18
>> Why don't Why don't we wrap it there,
01:14:19
fellas? Um, this has been another full
01:14:23
hour, a little bit more than a full hour
01:14:25
of sports analytics here on Wharton
01:14:26
Moneyball. For the whole team, Audi
01:14:28
Winer and Absentia, the three guys who
01:14:30
have been in here for this show, me for
01:14:32
most of it, Eric for the whole thing,
01:14:34
Shane for the whole thing. Thank you
01:14:35
guys for listening. Big shout out. Deion
01:14:37
Simpkins makes this whole thing go
01:14:38
around. Uh, Marissa Raina, our producer,
01:14:41
and Deep Patel, the boss lady, Aaron
01:14:44
Tran, running some valuable support.
01:14:46
Aaron Tran jumped in here at the break
01:14:47
and drop some knowledge on us. Thanks to
01:14:49
the whole team. Thank you guys for
01:14:50
listening. Come back and join us next
01:14:52
time. Between now and then, enjoy your
01:14:55
sports.
